Political Geography: United States of America / Publication Year: within 10 Years and within 5 Years

1501. The US policy in Iraq

Author:: Srush H.A. Khoshnaw
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:: This report is a summary of a policy debate held at MERI on Wednesday, 24 November 2021, attended by a selection of policy makers, politicians and academics. Discussions focused on the current US Administration’s priorities and its policies in the wider Middle East, Iraq and Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI).
Topic:: Diplomacy, Hegemony, Leadership, Conflict, Rivalry, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

1502. Post-American Moments in Global Financial Governance in the New Millennium

Author:: Ilene Grabel
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: It is difficult to find much to celebrate about the current conjuncture, marked as it is by deeply destructive incoherence. The best that can be said is that we are in an interregnum. But I suggest that today’s incoherence also includes productive and even transformative moments. I argue that incoherence in global financial governance should be understood as productive in several respects. It is creating and widening alternative spaces in which some of the values, practices, tools, objectives, and goals associated with embedded liberalism can be rearticulated in a world in which there is no “order,” American-led or otherwise. The silver lining of incoherence is that it creates space for experimentation and innovation unconstrained by an overarching “ism.” Incoherence is creating exits or leakages from noxious national and global policy environments, rendering it less poisonous than it would be in the absence of ideational aperture and contestation, competing policies, institutions, networks, and poles of power. The abdication by the US of its traditional role of global coordination and discipline, as exerted under the post-war embedded liberal or the neoliberal American-led orders, is creating opportunities for more permissive and varied “reembededness” and diverse forms of economic integration. The emerging regime reflects neither your grandmother’s American-led order 1.0 or 2.0. In this morbid post-American interregnum there is no singular “ism” or “alternative order,” a fact that I do not mourn.
Topic:: Governance, Finance, Global Political Economy, and Neoliberalism
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

1503. Concrete Steps Toward a Feminist Foreign Policy

Author:: Stephenie Foster, Susan Markham, and Sahana Dharmapuri
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Our Secure Future
Abstract:: This paper seeks to do one thing: to make recommendations about how a feminist foreign policy could be operationalized within the US government. Main Recommendations: Diversify Representation; Prioritize Gender in Information Collection and Analysis; Ensure Input From Those Affected; Reform the Institutional Structure; Increase Accountability of Individuals and Transparency of Institutions; Increase Resources; Utilize Technology.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Government, Science and Technology, Feminism, Representation, Diversity, Accountability, Institutions, Transparency, and Gender
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1504. Policy Papers by Women of Color: GenZer Perspectives on Redefining National Security

Author:: Ahliaa Moore, Shreeti Amit, Kritika Nagappa, Rosie Khan, Janet Abou-Elias, Arunima Mehrotra, Lillian Mauldin, and Momal Rizvi
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Women of Color Advancing Peace, Security and Conflict Transformation (WCAPS)
Abstract:: Includes: "Redefining National Security: A Return to Individual Rights"; "Redefining National Security: Diverse Voices in an Increasingly Interconnected World"; "Redefining National Security: Through the Eyes of a Young Woman of Color"; "Redefining National Security: The Necessity of Human Security"; "I Am Not a Threat: National Security and People of Color in the United States: Redefining National Security."
Topic:: National Security, Diversity, Human Security, Generation Z, and People of Color (POC)
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

1505. A Majority of Americans View Biden Favorably as Trump Hits Historic Low

Author:: PRRI Staff
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:: Outgoing President Donald Trump has left office with his lowest favorability ratings since the summer of 2016. In the wake of the January 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol and Trump’s impeachment for inciting the riot, 31% of Americans hold favorable views of Trump, while 67% hold unfavorable views of him, including a 54% majority of Americans who hold very unfavorable views of him. In November, after the election, 37% of Americans viewed Trump favorably and 62% unfavorably. Then, 44% viewed him very unfavorably.
Topic:: Governance, Public Opinion, Leadership, Transition, and Partisanship
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1506. Immigration After Trump: What Would Immigration Policy That Followed American Public Opinion Look Like?

Author:: PRRI Staff
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:: The last four years of U.S. immigration policy have been driven by the Trump administration’s aggressive stance against all types of immigration, legal and illegal.[1] President Joe Biden has promised to reverse many restrictive immigration policies from the Trump era by reforming the asylum system, raising the cap on refugee admissions, revoking the travel ban on immigrants from several Muslim-majority countries, halting the construction of a wall along the U.S. border with Mexico, suspending all deportations for the first 100 days of his presidency, making the DACA program permanent, and sending a comprehensive immigration reform bill to Congress.
Topic:: Immigration, Governance, Public Opinion, Refugees, Leadership, and Borders
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1507. Republicans’ Biggest Problem is That They Need Trump Supporters’ and Extremists’ Votes

Author:: Natalie Jackson
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:: The divisions within the Republican Party have been on clear display in the wake of the tumultuous end to Donald Trump’s presidency, which included a violent insurrectionist takeover of the U.S. Capitol on January 6. In the aftermath, will the party remain loyal to Trump and embrace its more extremist parts, or will it try to expel the extremists and risk losing considerable support? The answer seems to be leaning toward Trumpism and extremism in some ways, particularly with calls to “move on” from the January 6 riot and the Republican Party’s refusal to sanction Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) for embracing and championing violence against Democrats. However, some Republicans, including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), have specifically said there is no place for conspiracy theories in the party. But McConnell has notably stopped short of supporting most measures for holding Trump accountable for the events of January 6.
Topic:: Politics, Public Opinion, Leadership, and Partisanship
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1508. Is Religious Liberty a Shield or a Sword?

Author:: PRRI Staff
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:: Despite frequent disagreement on how to implement freedom of religion, the vast majority of Americans understand the basic religious protection offered by the First Amendment to the U.S. Constitution. Nearly nine in ten Americans (88%) agree that the U.S. government cannot establish an official religion or favor one religion over another, including 68% who completely agree with this statement. Only 11% of Americans disagree with the idea that the government cannot establish an official religion. Overwhelming agreement with this statement is consistent across all demographic groups. Large majorities of all religious groups agree that the U.S. government cannot establish an official religion or favor one religion over another, including white mainline Protestants (94%), white Catholics (90%), religiously unaffiliated Americans (88%), Protestants of color (84%), and white evangelical Protestants (82%).[1] All partisans are equally likely to agree with the statement that the U.S. government cannot establish an official religion or favor one religion over another, including 91% of Democrats, 88% of independents, and 86% of Republicans.
Topic:: Religion, LGBT+, Reproductive Health, and Freedom of Religion
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1509. Despite Partisan Rancor, Americans Broadly Support LGBTQ Rights

Author:: PRRI Staff
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:: More than three in four Americans (76%) favor laws that would protect lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender Americans from discrimination in jobs, housing, and public accommodation. Less than one in five Americans (19%) oppose nondiscrimination protections for LGBT Americans. Around one-third of Americans strongly favor nondiscrimination protections (34%), compared to less than one in ten who strongly oppose them (6%). Majorities of nearly every subgroup of Americans favor LGBT nondiscrimination protections, across race, age, religious, and partisan lines. The present level of support is higher than any PRRI has recorded in previous years, and is a significant increase from 2019, when 72% of Americans favored nondiscrimination protections for LGBT Americans. Prior to 2019, support for nondiscrimination protections hovered around seven in ten Americans: 69% in 2018, 70% in 2017, 72% in 2016, and 71% in 2015. The increase in support for LGBT nondiscrimination protections since 2015 has largely come among Americans of color and white mainline Protestants. White mainline Protestants and Black Americans have grown 10 percentage points more likely to favor nondiscrimination protections for LGBT Americans from 2015 to 2020 (from 73% to 82% and 65% to 75%, respectively). Multiracial Americans (from 72% to 81%), Black Protestants (from 64% to 73%), Americans ages 30 to 49 (from 73% to 81%), independents (from 73 to 78%), and Democrats (from 78% to 85%) have all become more likely to favor protections than they were in 2015.
Topic:: Religion, LGBT+, Repression, and Protectionism
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1510. Religious Identities and the Race Against the Virus: Engaging Faith Communities on COVID-19 Vaccination

Author:: PRRI Staff
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:: As the U.S. navigates evolving dynamics related to COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and access, there has been a dearth of hard data to understand the cultural dynamics of this problem, and even less rigorous data available to understand how faith-based interventions might mitigate vaccine hesitancy and resistance. The PRRI–IFYC Religion and the Vaccine Survey, the largest study conducted to date in this area, reveals that faith-based approaches supporting vaccine uptake can influence members of key hesitant groups to get vaccinated and thus can be a vital tool for the public health community as we work toward herd immunity. Faith-based approaches are influential among vaccine hesitant communities. More than one in four (26%) Americans who are hesitant to get a COVID-19 vaccine, and even 8% of those who are resistant to getting a vaccine, report that at least one of six faith-based approaches supporting vaccinations would make them more likely to get vaccinated.
Topic:: Religion, Public Health, Vaccine, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1511. Understanding QAnon’s Connection to American Politics, Religion, and Media Consumption

Author:: PRRI Staff
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:: The far-right conspiracy theory movement known as QAnon emerged on the internet in late 2017 and gained traction throughout former president Donald Trump’s time in office. QAnon’s core theory revolves around Satan-worshipping pedophiles plotting against Trump and a coming “storm” that would clear out those evil forces, but the movement has also been described as a “big tent conspiracy theory” that involves a constantly evolving web of schemes about politicians, celebrities, bankers, and the media, as well as echoes of older movements within Christianity, such as Gnosticism. To understand how this loosely connected belief system is influencing American politics, religion, and media, we fielded three questions, each containing a tenet of the QAnon conspiracy movement.
Topic:: Religion, QAnon, Conspiracy Theory, and Political Extremism
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1512. Back to School: Parents, Religion, and COVID-19 Vaccination

Author:: PRRI Staff
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:: Parents and guardians of children under the age of 18 are less likely to be vaccine accepters than those without children under 18 in their households, according to data from the latest PRRI-IFYC vaccine report.[1]About six in ten parents (61%) say they have gotten or will get a vaccine, 21% are hesitant, and 17% say they will not get a COVID-19 vaccine. By contrast, Americans without children under 18 in their households are more likely to be acceptant (76%) and less likely to be hesitant (13%) or refusers (10%).
Topic:: Public Health, Vaccine, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Parenting
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1513. Dramatic Partisan Differences On Blame for January 6 Riots

Author:: PRRI Staff
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:: According to new data from PRRI, majorities of Americans say white supremacist groups (59%), former president Donald Trump (56%), and conservative media platforms that spread conspiracy theories and misinformation (55%) shoulder a lot of responsibility for the violent actions of the rioters who took over the U.S. Capitol on January 6. These views have stayed remarkably stable since mid-January, when 62% placed a lot of blame on white supremacist groups, 57% on Trump, and 57% on conservative media platforms that spread misinformation. There are not significant differences between these numbers and January data within subgroups, either. Additionally, about four in ten Americans put a lot of the blame for the Capitol riot on Republican leaders (41%), and 29% put a lot of the blame on white conservative Christian groups. Despite the lack of any credible evidence that substantial numbers of liberal or left-wing groups participated in the riot, 38% put a lot of blame on these groups.
Topic:: Governance, Leadership, Political Parties, Political Extremism, and Partisanship
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1514. Tracking Vaccination by Religion at the County Level

Author:: PRRI Staff
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:: Previous research conducted throughout 2021 by PRRI and IFYC has shown that religious affiliation is correlated with vaccine acceptance, hesitancy, and refusal. This report explores the relationship between religious identity and vaccination rates at the local level. It combines county-level religion estimates from PRRI’s 2020 Census of American Religion with county-level COVID-19 vaccination data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and state sources to examine those patterns at the county level.1 The report focuses on only the largest religious groups in the country—those comprising more than 10% of the population—in order to reliably analyze the relationship between vaccination and religious populations across counties in all regions of the country. That includes white evangelical Protestants, white mainline (non-evangelical) Protestants, white Catholics, and the religiously unaffiliated.2 In addition to their geographic dispersion, these religious affiliation groups represent some of the most likely—and the least likely—religious groups to get vaccinated. In June of this year, a PRRI–IFYC survey found that white evangelical Protestants were the least likely group to be vaccine acceptant: Only 56% said they had gotten vaccinated against the coronavirus or would get the vaccine as soon as possible. Other white Christian groups were much more vaccine acceptant, including 74% of white mainline Protestants and 79% of white Catholics. Additionally, 75% of religiously unaffiliated Americans say they have gotten vaccinated or will get vaccinated as soon as possible.
Topic:: Religion, Local, Public Health, Vaccine, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1515. The Great Debt Divergence and its Implications for the Covid-19 Crisis: Mapping Corporate Leverage as Power

Author:: Joseph Baines and Sandy Brian Hager
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:: The COVID-19 pandemic has amplified longstanding concerns about mounting levels of corporate debt in the United States. This article places the current conjuncture in its historical context, analysing corporate indebtedness against the backdrop of increasing corporate concentration. Theorising leverage as a form of power, we find that the leverage of large non-financial firms increased in recent decades, while their debt servicing burdens decreased. At the same time, smaller firms experienced sharp deleveraging alongside increasing debt servicing costs. Crucially, smaller corporations also registered severe losses over this period, while large corporations remained profitable, and in fact doubled their net profit margins from the early-1990s to the present. Taken together, the results from our mapping exercise uncover a series of dramatic changes in the financial fortunes of large versus smaller firms in recent decades, a phenomenon we refer to as the great debt divergence. We explain this divergence with reference to the dynamics of power in the era of µshareholder capitalism, and we argue that the US political economy in the post-COVID 19 world is likely to resemble the pre-COVID 19 one, only with more market turmoil, more concentration, more inequality, and even less investment.
Topic:: Debt, COVID-19, Corporations, Power, Leverage, and Shareholder Value
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1516. Culture, Gender, and Women in the Military: Implications for International Humanitarian Law Compliance

Author:: Robert U. Nagel, Kinsey Spears, and Julia Maenza
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
Abstract:: The increased number of women in the Armed Forces presents a timely opportunity to examine how the changing gender makeup of the US military affects operations and culture, what potential barriers exist, and what women’s participation means for compliance with international conventions such as the Women, Peace and Security (WPS) agenda and International Humanitarian Law (IHL). We conducted semi-structured interviews with former enlisted personnel, active and retired commissioned officers. The interviews, along with a comprehensive review of government and military policies, independent review reports, and academic literature, allow us to illustrate how the combination of an entrenched masculinized military culture and overreliance on Special Operations Forces (SOF) present an obstacle to women’s full integration, impeding the implementation of the WPS agenda and IHL compliance. We recommend that the US Department of Defense address three central gender-related issues—the equal and meaningful inclusion of women, restrictive physical standards, and sexual assault—to achieve the goals of the 2020 Strategic Framework and Implementation Plan (SFIP).
Topic:: Security, Culture, Armed Forces, Women, Discrimination, International Humanitarian Law (IHL), and Gender
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1517. Lessons Across Borders: Women’s Entrepreneurship in the U.S. and China

Author:: Yvonne Quek and Emma Crawford
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
Abstract:: In both the United States and China, thousands of women are becoming entrepreneurs. Over the past 20 years, the number of women-owned businesses in the United States has grown 114 percent. Similarly, the All-China Women’s Federation reports that women accounted for one-quarter of total China-based entrepreneurs as of 2017. The upward trends in both countries underscore the growing economic opportunities for women in the entrepreneurial ecosystem, especially in the rapidly growing technology industry. However, despite the availability of national data highlighting these trends, we know little about the patterns of opportunities and challenges faced by women entrepreneurs, specifically those in tech. This report, produced in collaboration with The Mulan Foundation, seeks to address this gap by examining the key challenges faced by female founders in tech in the United States and China. Part I investigates these trends by synthesizing and sharing insights from 330 survey respondents across both countries, comparing the opportunities and challenges faced by women tech entrepreneurs in each economy. Part II then dives deep into the U.S. perspective, analyzing the survey responses from American women entrepreneurs in the tech sector and drawing from in-depth profiles of 17 individual founders. Their diverse experiences offer lessons for other women entrepreneurs. Our findings in both countries suggest that limited access to capital and networks are key challenges faced by female entrepreneurs in tech. In addition, gender bias and stereotypes inhibit growth opportunities for women-founded businesses. This report provides recommendations for how to support women entrepreneurs in technology, and it highlights opportunities for women founders and aspiring entrepreneurs.
Topic:: Women, Entrepreneurship, Business, and Borders
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

1518. Can the Women, Peace and Security Agenda and International Humanitarian Law Join Forces? Emerging findings and promising directions

Author:: Jeni Klugman, Robert U. Nagel, Mara Revkin, and Orly Maya Stern
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
Abstract:: This report explores overlaps and synergies between International Humanitarian Law (IHL) and the women, peace and security (WPS) agenda, specifically the protection and participation pillars of WPS. A summary of initial findings was presented in a policy brief of the same name in December 2020: Can the Women, Peace and Security Agenda and International Humanitarian Law Join Forces? (Policy Brief). IHL is the body of law that governs armed conflict. It is designed to protect combatants and civilians of all genders by restricting the means and methods of warfare. Although IHL has a track record of meaningfully protecting the rights of people in conflict-affected areas over the past five decades, there are notable shortcomings and blind spots in its ability to address the gendered dimensions of conflict. While the authors of the report do not advocate for the merging of these two agendas, they argue that there is potential to broaden the focus of the WPS protection pillar to ensure women and girls are safe from all forms of violence, and to use IHL to add legal force to the WPS agenda. Three case studies on the militaries of South Africa, Israel, and the United States highlight progress and challenges around WPS implementation and IHL compliance. South Africa is a case in which the military is engaged in peacekeeping operations, with frequent allegations made against it of sexual assault against civilians. The United States is a case in which women’s participation in combat roles has increased significantly in recent years, as well as one in which soldiers are deployed in nonconflict situations (such as partner military training missions and black-site prison facilities) where IHL does not formally apply. Israel has the largest rate of women’s participation of any state military in the world. These cases demonstrate persistent shortcomings but also crucial opportunities to better leverage WPS to promote IHL compliance and improve women’s protection. This research paper is the second in a series of outputs of a research program on the synergies between IHL and WPS at the Georgetown Institute of Women, Peace and Security with support from the Government of Liechtenstein.
Topic:: Security, Women, Peace, and International Humanitarian Law (IHL)
Political Geography:: Israel, South Africa, and United States of America

1519. Is it time for Biden to demonstrate force with Iran?

Author:: Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The withdrawal of American forces from the Middle East may have strategic merits. The rationale for a contracted global military seems to match what American strategists have termed “offshore balancing,” which means that the U.S. holds fewer overseas bases but maintains its military capability to intervene in distant regions when necessary.
Topic:: Security, Military Strategy, Strategic Interests, and Intervention
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America

1520. Iran talks are likely going nowhere

Author:: Alexander Grinberg
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Iran uses uranium enrichment as leverage on the EU and US to get concessions.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Conflict, Uranium, and Nuclear Energy
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America

1521. The Biden Agenda: How the new administration can help Western Balkans out of stagnation

Author:: Muhamet Brajshori
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: President Biden’s administration has shown signs of seeking to focus in the region by having a nor-mative-based policy in place to addresses issues that empower the region and help the region by undertaking reforms and making progress on Euro-Atlantic integration. One of the main aspects of this re-engagement will be the sensitive political issues that hold the region in deadlocks, such as the complicated relations between Kosovo and Serbia, and the risk that Bosnia and Herzegovina will turn into a totally failed state in the heart of Europe. A key element of Washington’s engagement will be closer coordination with European allies to complete the remaining open issues in the Western Balkans. But the challenges are immense and the expectations are high.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Regional Integration, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, Balkans, United States of America, and Bosnia and Herzegovina

1522. Israel, the US, and the Iranian Nuclear project – back to basics

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: It is not in America’s interest for Israel to be perceived as an obedient lap dog. On the contrary, keeping Israel’s options open, or even enhancing them, will ultimately prove to be of value to the US.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Alliance, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America

1523. The Nuclear Talks in Vienna: Biden’s Legacy at Stake

Author:: Eytan Gilboa
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: From Tehran’s perspective, the goals are lifting the sanctions and securing immunity from military attacks.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

1524. Why is Iran returning to the negotiating table?

Author:: Yaakov Amidror
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The American hope for the resumption of the talks, and the talks themselves, give the Iranians more freedom of action. They restrict US activity in response to mounting provocations.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Negotiation
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

1525. Securing the Future of the Israel-US Special Relationship

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: With the help of American Jewry, a sturdy foundation of support for Israel-US ties needs to be rebuilt based upon traditional bipartisan commitment. This will enable Israel to engage effectively with the Biden Administration and Congress on the Iranian challenge.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Bilateral Relations, Alliance, and Polarization
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America

1526. Israel Must Actively Oppose US Return to the JCPOA

Author:: Efraim Inbar and Omer Dostri
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Even if Israel’s ability to influence US decision-making is limited, it is a serious mistake to downplay Israel’s opposition to the dangerous nuclear accord.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America

1527. Bennett’s Visit to Washington

Author:: Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Bennett’s mission is to emphasize the American interest in the region and present Israel’s capacity to help in attaining it.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Leadership, Alliance, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America

1528. From Saigon to Kabul: Losing the Battle, Winning the War

Author:: Emmanuel Navon
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: America’s decision to leave Afghanistan makes sense only if the plan is to cut losses in an unwinnable war and redirect resources and energies toward a winnable strategy against Iran.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Military Intervention, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

1529. Yemen Offers Clues as to US Regional Strategy and the Abilities of Anti-Iran Forces

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The lack of a coherent Western strategy for the containment and rollback of Iran in the Middle East in worrying.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, Alliance, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Yemen, North America, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

1530. Strategic Incoherence Continued: US Policy Towards Syria Under Biden

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: US determination to draw down in the Middle East, which characterized the Obama, Trump and now Biden administrations, appears likely to prevent the development of any coherent strategy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Leadership, Strategic Interests, and Intervention
Political Geography:: Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

1531. The Costs of Working with the Americans in Afghanistan: The United States’ Broken Special Immigrant Visa Process

Author:: Noah Coburn
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
Abstract:: The United States’ Special Immigrant Visa (SIV) Program was designed to help Afghans and Iraqis who are in danger of being killed as a result of their service to the U.S. government as translators or in other civilian jobs. As of 2020, over 18,000 Afghan applicants have received U.S. visas, along with over 45,000 of their immediate family members, and immigrated to the U.S. The program has been plagued by bureaucratic inefficiencies and significant problems with the application process, resulting in a backlog of an additional 18,800 applications according to a 2019 review of the program. The lives of thousands of these applicants are currently at risk. This report on the Afghan SIV program, based on interviews with over 150 SIV applicants and recipients, as well as a review of other studies of the program, suggests that while the program is well-intentioned and beneficial to certain successful applicants, its current structure puts the lives of applicants at risk and leaves them vulnerable to exploitation before, during and after the process. The lack of a coherent, effective strategy to support these workers, and the failure to implement the program as originally envisioned, leaves applicants stranded in Afghanistan or elsewhere and vulnerable to attacks by the Taliban and criminal groups, as well as other forms of exploitation. This has further undermined the reputation of the United States government in Afghanistan while serving a relatively small percentage of those Afghans who worked closely with the U.S. The program also does little to support those who do receive visas and move to the U.S. They are ultimately disappointed in, and unprepared for, the lack of support they receive upon settling in the United States. The program could do much more to prepare and support these recipients for the challenges they are likely to face during resettlement. The Biden administration’s current review of the SIV program is a good step forward, but unless that review takes a closer look at the true human costs of its flawed processes, it is likely to result in little more than bureaucratic tinkering. The program must be seriously overhauled, based on a reconceptualization of how to best support those who put their lives at risk to assist the United States government. As it is currently structured, the SIV program may in fact be doing more harm than good.
Topic:: Immigration, Military Affairs, Violent Extremism, Counter-terrorism, and War on Terror
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, South Asia, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

1532. The Costs of United States’ Post-9/11 “Security Assistance”: How Counterterrorism Intensified Conflict in Burkina Faso and Around the World

Author:: Stephanie Savell
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
Abstract:: United States “security assistance” exports a militarized counterterrorism model to dozens of countries through money, training, and weapons. This model comes with dangerous costs. The narrative, tactics, funding, and institutional supports of the U.S. post-9/11 wars fuel repression and corruption, and escalate cycles of violence. This paper delves into the current conflict in Burkina Faso as an illustrative case study of how the U.S. counterterrorism model has caused more, not less, instability and violence. Despite the relatively low levels of terrorism assessed in Burkina Faso at the time, the United States laid the groundwork for increased militarism in the region when it began providing security assistance to the country in 2009. Today, Burkina Faso is enveloped in a spiraling conflict involving government forces, state-sponsored militias, and militant groups, and civilians are paying the price. Militant groups have strengthened and seized territory, ethnic tensions have skyrocketed, thousands of Burkinabe have been killed and over one million displaced. A Burkina-based human rights group has warned that the government’s ethnic killings may lead to the “next Rwanda.”
Topic:: Security, Ethnic Conflict, Counter-terrorism, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa, United States of America, and Burkina Faso

1533. United States Counterterrorism Operations 2018–2020

Author:: Stephanie Savell, Rachel McMahon, Emily Rockwell, and Yueshan Li
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
Abstract:: The map illustrates countries in which the U.S. government conducted operations it explicitly described as counterterrorism, in an outgrowth of President George W. Bush's “Global War on Terror.” These operations include air and drone strikes, on-the-ground combat, so-called “Section 127e” programs in which U.S. special operations forces plan and control partner force missions, military exercises in preparation for or as part of counterterrorism missions, and operations to train and assist foreign forces. (The map does not comprehensively cover the full scope of U.S. post-9/11 warfare, as it does not document, for instance, U.S. military bases used for counterterror operations, arms sales to foreign governments, or all deployments of U.S. special operations forces.) Despite the Pentagon’s assertion that the U.S. is shifting its strategic emphasis away from counterterrorism and towards great power competition with Russia and China, examining U.S. military activity on a country-by-country basis shows that there is yet to be a corresponding drawdown of the counterterror apparatus. If anything, the map demonstrates that counterterrorism operations have become more widespread in recent years.
Topic:: Military Affairs, Counter-terrorism, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

1534. Biden at 100 Days: A Climate Foreign-Policy Scorecard

Author:: Jeff D. Colgan and Thomas N. Hale
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
Abstract:: Climate change is the defining global challenge of the twenty-first century. It constitutes a direct threat to the safety and prosperity of Americans. U.S. President Joe Biden has committed to reorienting U.S. foreign policy to meet the climate challenge. This report provides an early assessment of the Biden administration’s international climate diplomacy against these goals in the first 100 days, recognizing that others have focused on domestic policy, and that climate change must be at the top of the U.S. foreign-policy agenda. It builds on a previous report by the Brown University Climate Solutions Lab, issued on October 8, 2020, that identified and recommended ten executive climate actions, which are central to advancing U.S. foreign-policy objectives. Of the 9 internationally-oriented climate pledges evaluated, made by the Biden campaign during the 2020 presidential election, the report finds that the Biden team has already delivered effectively on 4 of them, made some progress on 2, and taken baby steps or made no real progress on 3. These will require further attention and resources in the coming months.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Climate Change, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

1535. Multilateralism: A Realist View

Author:: Louise Oliver
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Ambassadors Review
Institution:: Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:: President Joseph Biden is reembracing President Barack Obama’s foreign policy strategy, making multilateralism a core principle of his own foreign policy. Biden’s foreign policy team includes Obama Administration veterans such as Antony Blinken, William Burns and John Kerry, all of whom believe in the efficacy of multilateral diplomacy. Biden has returned to the Paris Climate Accord, nullified President Donald Trump’s decision to leave the World Health Organization (WHO) and reengaged with the UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC). If returning to the UN Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) is also a possibility, Biden ought to take a close look at the U.S. experience with that organization because it is a good example of the difficulties that multilateralism can pose for the U.S.
Topic:: United Nations, Multilateralism, UN Human Rights Council (HRC), and UNESCO
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1536. New Thinking on Democracy at Home and Abroad

Author:: Sarah E. Mendelson
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Ambassadors Review
Institution:: Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:: The Joseph Biden Administration has rather famously committed to convene a Summit for Democracy, likely later in 2021 or early in 2022. The Summit has become, as some diplomats have suggested, “the talk of the town,” not only in Washington but also in multiple other national capitals. A cottage industry has sprung up debating the who, the what and the where. More focus is needed on the why — which, in turn, ought to shape the how. To my mind, albeit one preoccupied for over a quarter of a century with human rights and democracy, the why is rather straightforward. The alternatives — bending to the rise of authoritarians, or leaving unaddressed the weakened liberal international order that the United States originally helped create —are not in our or our allies’ national interest. Many democracies are experiencing intense challenges on multiple levels. Chief among these is the global pandemic, which revealed deep socioeconomic inequities in societies that have long been labeled “developed,” when in fact these democracies have not been delivering to many communities. Freedom House has now recorded 15 straight years of decline globally in democracy. The crises at home have been widely broadcast: the new Congress came under physical attack January 6 after a U.S. President attempted, as part of a protracted effort, to overturn the 2020 election and prohibit the peaceful transfer of power. How then the Summit for Democracy can help repair and revive democracy here and among our allies needs more consideration and detail. Numerous factors roll up to a once-in-a-generation opportunity to rethink and refresh exactly how we advance democracy at home and abroad. New approaches, themes and methods can help revitalize strategy and policy. Such new approaches need to connect and account for domestic shortcomings and link progress at home to efforts abroad. In doing so, post-pandemic democracy promotion needs to reflect a comprehensive focus on rights that includes socioeconomic issues and sustainable development (e.g., democracies must deliver dignity). The Biden Administration ought to consider labeling the Summit “Democracies Deliver Dignity and Development” or the 4Ds Summit. The Summit can provide the road map for these new approaches while being informed and shaped by extensive consultations at home and abroad. Finally, new methods should include data-driven, human-centered design shaping foreign assistance as well as elevating local voices. Internationally, that would be a significant change to the dominant modalities, largely Congress-driven, supporting specific types of institution building, such as central election commissions. Such work will undoubtedly continue, given support in Congress and among the U.S.-based NGOs that receive the funding (notwithstanding the damaged credibility of our democracy). At a minimum though, demonstrably demand-driven assistance ought to supplement this older business model in order to better deliver to populations, listening and responding to the multitude of needs.
Topic:: Development, Diplomacy, Authoritarianism, Democracy, and NGOs
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1537. Go Big on Soft Power: A Smart Countering Violent Extremism Strategy

Author:: Farah Pandith
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Ambassadors Review
Institution:: Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:: Pushing his $1.9 trillion stimulus package through Congress, President Joseph Biden argued long and hard that the only way to defeat a deadly virus was to go big. Now, he has to go big on another infectious virus: the rising swell of hatred and violence that has ripped through regions as diverse as Europe, Sub-Saharan Africa and North America, where the growing dark forces of hate and extremism led to the deadly January 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol. Biden and his expert team have first-hand experience with terrorist movements as well as the benefit of the long arc of history. But much has changed in the 20 years since the September 11, 2001 attacks – the last time organized extremists took aim at sacred symbols of America.[1] Looking back at the horror of that day and what it unleashed, we are reminded of the power and malevolence of organized, relentless bad actors and what they can achieve in the name of some twisted ideology. A new federal intelligence report says domestic terrorism in 2021 could likely escalate with “support from persons in the United States or abroad.”[2] It’s why President Biden must be bold, focused and use all instruments of soft power to diminish the appeal of the ideology.
Topic:: Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Counter-terrorism, and Conflict
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1538. Diversity Divide: Supporting the State Department’s Asian American and Pacific Islander FSO's

Author:: Tenzin Dawa Thargay
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Ambassadors Review
Institution:: Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:: In a year of COVID-19, racial reckoning and increased reported violence against the Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) community, conversations on race, diversity, equity and inclusion compel our societies and institutions to have difficult —yet necessary— conversations about redressing historical and systematic inequalities. The State Department and the Foreign Service are not exceptions. Many AAPI and historically underrepresented Foreign Service Officers (FSO) who spoke for this interview feel that the Department’s long-touted commitments to diversity and to reflecting America in its diplomatic corps ring hollow. Rhetoric has been slow to translate into action. Systematic challenges impacting these constituencies still continue without remedy. One of the most pressing challenges centers on security clearance and assignment restrictions. The recent wave of reported cases of violence and hate against AAPI in the U.S. have resurfaced longstanding grievances of AAPI Foreign Service Officers (FSO)—primarily, that the Department mistrusts them by often preventing them from serving in or covering issues on their country of heritage through assignment and security clearance restrictions.[1] The State Department must better understand the AAPI experience and enact demonstrable reforms to correct longstanding challenges around representation in leadership positions and security clearance and assignment restrictions impacting this constituency and other historically underrepresented groups. Doing so could honor previous commitments to advance diversity, retain and cultivate diverse talent and make these groups feel like valued members of the Department.
Topic:: Discrimination, Diversity, COVID-19, and Hate Crimes
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1539. A Solid Handoff in the U.S-India Relationship

Author:: Kenneth I. Juster
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Ambassadors Review
Institution:: Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:: The conventional wisdom is that the foreign policy of Donald Trump’s Administration severely damaged relations with U.S. allies and partners. Commentators point to repeated criticism by the United States of friends in Europe and Asia, as well as the abrupt withdrawal from trade and other arrangements. But such critics overlook the U.S. relationship with India, which made significant advances and will be an area of substantial continuity in Joseph Biden’s Administration. The U.S.-India partnership has grown steadily since the turn of the century, with the past four years seeing major progress in diplomatic, defense, economic, energy and health cooperation. The strengthened bilateral relationship has become the backbone of an Indo-Pacific strategy designed to promote peace and prosperity in a dynamic and contested region. The longstanding U.S. commitment to the Indo-Pacific has underpinned the stability and remarkable economic rise of this region over the last 70 years. While the concept of the Indo-Pacific has been many years in the making, in the past four years the United States and India have turned it into a reality. For the United States, the Indo-Pacific agenda meant working with India to provide coordinated leadership in addressing the threat from an expansionist China, the need for more economic connectivity and other challenges in the region.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Hegemony
Political Geography:: China, India, Asia, North America, and United States of America

1540. Cuba’s Unresolved Civil War

Author:: Richard N. Holwill
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Ambassadors Review
Institution:: Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:: The U.S. policy of normalization toward Cuba in the Barack Obama Administration was reversed by President Donald Trump, largely because it failed to address an underlying issue. The Cuban “revolution,” though consolidated on the Island, was soundly rejected by the Cuban exile community who view their country as mired in an unresolved civil war. The importance of the Florida vote was sufficient to prompt President Trump to “cancel” President Obama’s efforts at normalization. Meaningful change will require a more comprehensive approach to the challenge of implementing an effective Cuba policy. In truth, there is no justification for overt hostility toward Cuba. The Cold War is over, and the role that Cuba played in that conflict – an alliance with the Soviets, exporting violent revolution and doctrinaire socialism – has ended, as well. Going forward, the Biden Administration must adjust policies to reflect the fact that Cuba is on the verge of becoming a failed state, which would have negative consequences for the United States.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Fragile/Failed State, Conflict, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: Cuba, Caribbean, North America, and United States of America

1541. Outer Space and International Diplomacy

Author:: John M. Logsdon
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Ambassadors Review
Institution:: Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:: Addressing the General Assembly of the United Nations on September 25, 1961, President John F. Kennedy proclaimed that “the new horizons of outer space must not be driven by the old bitter conflicts of imperialism and sovereign claims.” Kennedy announced that the United States would “urge proposals extending the United Nations Charter to the limits of man’s exploration of the universe, reserving outer space for peaceful use, prohibiting weapons of mass destruction in space or on celestial bodies, and opening the mysteries and benefits of space to every nation.”[1] Just over five years later, after several rounds of negotiations carried out primarily with the Soviet Union but within the framework of the UN Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS), the “Treaty on Principles Governing the Activity of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies” was opened for signature on January 27, 1967.[2] As of February 2021, 111 nation states, including all major space-faring countries, are party to that treaty; another 23 have signed the treaty but not yet ratified it. The principles set out in the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, supplemented over the more than 50 years since 1967 by four implementing treaties and a number of non-binding statements of principles and multilateral agreements, constitute today’s international governance framework for space activities. It was Kennedy’s 1961 speech that started the process of creating that framework. President Joseph Biden has a similar opportunity, 60 years later, to take the lead in updating space governance for the 21st century.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, Governance, and Space
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1542. ‘Defence Against Help’ Revisiting a Primary Justification for Canadian Participation in Continental Defence with the United States

Author:: P. Whitney Lackenbauer
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
Institution:: Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:: Any conceptual framework for Canadian policy had to recognize the interdependent nature of North American security, whereby the United States’ safety was dependent on Canadian territory and airspace. In its classic incarnation, the concept of defence against help thus represents a trilateral equation, consisting of an external threat (or threatening context), a smaller state (the security of which is inextricably linked to the perceived security of a larger neighbour), and the neighbouring larger power itself. The equation incorporates how the threat relates to the larger state, and how the smaller state plays (or does not play) an intermediary role in the threat relationship between the threatening context and the larger state. Canada’s alignment to the United States did not detract from the value of the concept to its decision-making; it bolstered it. A smaller state can invoke the strategy of defence against help in two ways: unilaterally (with or without coordination with the larger state), or conjointly with the larger state. Does defence against help continue to represent a workable, basic decision-making strategy for Canada to ensure continental defence in the 21st century? Building upon observations that I initially drew in a 2000 working paper, I maintain that the concept no longer represents an attractive or viable justification for core Canadian strategic decision-making. Rather than conceptualizing United States continental defence priorities as a threat to Canada’s sovereignty (as it is conventionally defined in military and diplomatic circles) owing to potential territorial encroachment to protect the American heartland, cost-benefit analysis of Canadian options should focus on the benefits that Canada derives from its bilateral and binational defence partnership. Instead (and in contrast to some recent commentators), I suggest that the driving strategic consideration since the late 1980s has been less about defence against help than about the need for Canada to contribute meaningfully to bilateral defence in order to stay in the game and secure a piece of the action.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: Canada, North America, and United States of America

1543. Standards for a Secure 5G Infrastructure

Author:: Michel Girard
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: Fifth-generation (5G) networks are the building blocks of the new digital economy; therefore, standardization of these networks is essential to building a strong foundation. A North American Technology Trust can help Canada, Mexico and the United States work together to develop common standards needed to build, maintain and operate a safe and reliable 5G infrastructure. These standards, guided by a 5G technology road map and safety code, will help maximize the benefits of 5G networks and related technologies for users across the continent. This policy brief is a contribution to a workshop focusing on the future of 5G in North America. The 5G Beyond Borders workshop, organized by the Wilson Center, CIGI and Tecnológico de Monterrey, discussed how strategic cooperation at the North American level can directly shape the future of 5G and lay the groundwork for expanded North American competitiveness in a range of emerging technologies.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, Science and Technology, Infrastructure, 5G, and Emerging Technology
Political Geography:: Canada, North America, Mexico, and United States of America

1544. Central Bank Digital Currency and Governance: Fit for Purpose?

Author:: Pierre Siklos
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: As digital forms of payment become increasingly popular, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic, cash is no longer king. Central banks are turning their attention toward central bank digital currency (CBDC) to replace coins and bills and to provide other types of services through digital technology. CBDC can also facilitate cross-border transactions through the use of internationally accepted currencies such as the euro and the US dollar. This paper explores the many tailwinds and headwinds that will affect the implementation of a CBDC.
Topic:: Governance, Digital Economy, Banks, and Digital Currency
Political Geography:: North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

1545. Abolishing School Resource Officers Amidst the Black Lives Matter Movement: A History and Case Study in Oakland and Los Angeles

Author:: Wendy Gomez
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:: School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:: This paper explores the potential of abolishing school resource officers (SROs), their history in education, and their role in exacerbating the effects of the school-to-prison pipeline and racial injustice. In the midst of calls to defund the police, policies to abolish police in schools are a vital first step. This paper argues that there is an interconnected history between SROs and surveilling youth-led civil rights movements. Today, we see the results—SROs have negatively impacted Black and brown youth subjugating them to higher rates of school-related arrests. Using historical case studies of Oakland and Los Angeles, this research draws on the potential to enact policies that end police in schools. Additionally, this paper places organizers as key actors in policy change. The analysis situates the movement to eliminate SROs as an extension of the civil rights struggle and as a microcosm of the modern-day struggle for abolition.
Topic:: Education, History, Police, Domestic Policy, Black Lives Matter (BLM), and Case Study
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1546. Leveraging Submarine Cables for Political Gain: U.S. Responses to Chinese Strategy

Author:: Lane Burdette
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:: School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:: Submarine cables are critical infrastructure that carry nearly all internet traffic. However, unclear international governance does not always guarantee their protection, leaving global information networks vulnerable to sabotage and espionage. China’s access to submarine cables for strategic manipulation is greatly expanded through the Digital Silk Road and territorial claims in the South China Sea, posing a clear threat that requires a U.S. response. Current U.S. policy is uncoordinated and can be sorted into the isolationist, cooperative, competitive, and militaristic responses, which each present unique frameworks for future action. The isolationist response would disconnect the United States from insecure cable networks, limiting China’s influence over U.S. assets but reducing international connectivity. The cooperative response emphasizes international norms-setting processes to achieve multilateral agreements protecting cables from state influences. The competitive response advocates U.S. competition with China in the submarine cable market through alternate assistance programs, which would increase the redundancy of a secure network. Finally, the militaristic response explores the role of America’s military in defending submarine cables from foreign exploitation. This article recommends that future policy emphasize a combination of the competitive and militaristic responses in order to most immediately and effectively address China’s threat to information security along submarine cables while minimizing U.S. risk.
Topic:: International Relations, Politics, Governance, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: China, North America, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

1547. Overcoming Contemporary Reform Failure of the National Flood Insurance Program to Accelerate Just Climate Transitions

Author:: Melissa Tier
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:: School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:: Managing and adapting to flood risk is an increasing concern of policymakers globally, as anthropogenic climate change contributes to sea level rise and the rising intensity and frequency of coastal storms. Moreover, it is critically important that policymakers design and implement equitable adaptation processes that are based in environmental justice principles. In the United States, the primary instrument for flood risk management is the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP)—but the program already suffers from debt, low participation rates, outdated flood risk assessments, and myriad other structural issues. By integrating several models of policy development, this analysis offers explanations for why NFIP reform attempts of the past decade have repeatedly failed and offers the present moment (in the early months of the Biden Administration and as the pandemic crisis continues) as a potential policy window for realigning reform efforts. Achieving true NFIP reform remains crucial to ensuring that all coastal residents have affordable options for low-risk housing, despite the expected growth in high-risk flood zones.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Reform, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1548. Reforming U.S. Export Controls to Reflect the Threat Landscape

Author:: Zach Weinberg
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:: School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:: Certain features of U.S. export controls fail to reflect the immediate threat from East Asia and the emerging threat from Europe as it relates to the theft of American defense and dual-use technologies. While both the Obama and Trump administrations made a concerted effort to better regulate the commercial sale and shipment of technologies deemed sensitive for reasons of national security, one critical component of the export controls regime—the U.S. Department of Commerce (USDOC) country-specific export control licensing requirements—has yet to be revised to account for European and East Asian industrial espionage. Imposing the most export licensing requirements on average to countries in Europe and East Asia would accurately account for the persistent attempts to illicitly acquire U.S. defense technologies. Instead, countries in the Near East and South and Central Asia are, on average, assigned the most reasons for control listed on the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) Commerce Country Chart (CCC)—likely a carry-on objective from the U.S. Global War on Terror (GWOT) when military operations were heavily focused on these regions. Furthermore, BIS imposes a blanket set of export controls on countries throughout Sub-Saharan Africa, failing to recognize the varying risk profiles posed by different African states. These misallocated export controls demonstrate how specific trade barriers fail to move beyond an outdated GWOT mentality and result in over-regulating the Near East, South and Central Asia, and Africa. The following paper proposes the need for a thorough review of the CCC to ensure that it accurately reflects a country’s current risk profile and takes into consideration the consistent industrial espionage threat from East Asia and the emerging threat from Europe. As a result of this type of export control reform, there would be a relaxation of licensing requirements levied on regions that show little interest in illicitly procuring American defense technologies.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Exports, and Hybrid Threats
Political Geography:: Europe, East Asia, North America, and United States of America

1549. “Baby Won't You Please Come Home:” Studying Ethnoracial Segregation Trends in New Orleans Pre and Post Hurricane Katrina

Author:: Nathan Babb
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:: This paper explores the ethnoracial segregation trends of New Orleans, Louisiana between the years 2000, 2010, and 2018. It studies the effect of Hurricane Katrina—which struck in August 2005—on population figures and racial composition within two geographic units of study in Orleans parish: neighborhoods and census tract block groups. Since Hurricane Katrina, White residents have returned in larger numbers than Black residents, and particularly so in neighborhoods that were predominantly Black before the storm. In 2019, New Orleans had 100,000 fewer people than before the storm—nearly the same as the number of Black residents who have not returned. Using a Gibbs-Martin index, which measures racial diversity, the paper finds that decreases in population at the census block group level are associated with racial “diversifying.” This trend invites a conversation on the normative interpretations of racial heterogenization, its causes, and its consequences: who bears the costs of increased “diversity” and what is the historical backdrop it operates under?
Topic:: Race, Natural Disasters, Governance, Inequality, Domestic Policy, Disaster Management, and Segregation
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1550. Proportionate Deterrence: A Model Nuclear Posture Review

Author:: George Perkovich and Pranay Vaddi
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Ever since the election of Bill Clinton in 1992, every U.S. presidential administration has published a Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) that explains the rationales behind its nuclear strategy, doctrine, and requested forces. These reviews have helped inform U.S. government personnel, citizens, allies, and adversaries of the country’s intentions and planned capabilities for conducting nuclear deterrence and, if necessary, war. The administration that takes office in January 2021 may or may not conduct a new NPR, but it will assess and update nuclear policies as part of its overall recalibration of national security strategy and policies. Nongovernmental analysts can contribute to sound policymaking by being less constrained than officials often are in exploring the difficulties of achieving nuclear deterrence with prudently tolerable risks. Accordingly, the review envisioned and summarized here explicitly elucidates the dilemmas, uncertainties, and tradeoffs that come with current and possible alternative nuclear policies and forces. In the body of this review, we analyze extant declaratory policy, unclassified employment policy, and plans for offensive and defensive force postures, and then propose changes to several of them. We also will emphasize the need for innovative approaches to arms control.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Hybrid Threats
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1551. How Middle-Power Democracies Can Help Renovate Global Democracy Support

Author:: Rachel Kleinfeld, Thomas Carothers, Steven Feldstein, and Richard Youngs
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Middle-power democracies—countries which regardless of their geopolitical weight have made democracy support a sustained component of their foreign policy—will be crucial to reimagining democracy support strategies and policies to better meet the moment. Some of these states have crafted new initiatives and wielded diplomatic tools to deepen their impact in recent years. However, these states have on the whole punched below their collective weight. This paper suggests that middle-power democracies can maximize their impact on global democracy in the following ways: Enhancing solidarity: when a country acts courageously in defense of democracy, it needs to know that others will stand alongside it. Sharpening their focus: middle-power democracies should target policy areas aligned with democratic values on issues both at the top of the geopolitical agenda and at the top-of-mind for citizens around the world—for example, economic recovery, injustice and discrimination, corruption, digital repression, and climate change. Improving diplomatic cooperation: pursuing flexible and focused multilateral partnerships allows for collaboration on key policy interests and amplifies middle-power actions.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Democracy, Solidarity, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

1552. How Do Indian Americans View India? Results From the 2020 Indian American Attitudes Survey

Author:: Sumitra Badrinathan, Devesh Kapur, and Milan Vaishnav
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Indian Americans are now the second-largest immigrant group in the United States. Their growing political influence and the role the diaspora plays in Indian foreign policy therefore raises important questions—about how Indian Americans view India, the political changes underway there, and the course of U.S.-India relations. Since coming to power in 2014, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made outreach to the far-flung Indian diaspora a signature element of his government’s foreign policy. Modi’s courtship of the diaspora has been especially notable in the United States, where the Indian American population has swelled to more than 4 million and has become the second-largest immigrant group in the United States.1 In two separate, large rallies on U.S. soil—in 2014 and 2019—Modi sought to highlight the achievements of the diaspora, outlining the many ways in which they can support India’s interests from afar while underscoring their increasingly substantial economic, political, and social influence in the United States. These high-octane gatherings, however, naturally lead to a series of questions: How do Indians in America regard India, and how do they remain connected to developments there? What are their attitudes toward Indian politics and changes underway in their ancestral homeland? And what role, if any, do they envision for the United States in engaging with India?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Immigration, Public Opinion, and Survey
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, North America, and United States of America

1553. Russia in the Arctic—A Critical Examination

Author:: Eugene Rumer, Richard Sokolsky, and Paul Stronski
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Russia has big Arctic plans, but how they will be realized is uncertain. For the United States this will likely mean the return to a Cold War–like environment rather than a new chapter in great-power competition in the Arctic. Russia’s Arctic ambitions have attracted increasing attention in the West over the past decade as climate change opens up new opportunities in the region for navigation and exploration of its riches. For its part, Moscow casts a wary eye on what it sees as a challenge from the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to its position and ambitions there. The Kremlin’s rhetoric about Western encroachment has become more strident, in sync with its enhanced military posture and ambitious economic and infrastructure projects.
Topic:: NATO, Cold War, Infrastructure, Geopolitics, and Economy
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, North America, Arctic, and United States of America

1554. Breaking the Israel-Palestine Status Quo

Author:: Zaha Hassan, Daniel Levy, Hallaamal Keir, and Marwan Muasher
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: A new U.S. approach should prioritize protecting the rights and human security of Palestinians and Israelis over maintaining a peace process and attempting short-term fixes. The authors of this paper identified four overarching areas of focus: (1) prioritize rights and protect people, (2) roll back the Trump administration’s actions and reassert international law, (3) clarify expectations for Palestinians and Israelis, and (4) support new multilateral approaches and accountability.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

1555. Evolving UAE Military and Foreign Security Cooperation: Path Toward Military Professionalism

Author:: Melissa Dalton and Hijab Shah
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The UAE has an opportunity to professionalize the military by building its strategic planning and force development capabilities and by committing to international principles of professional military conduct and greater transparency and accountability. After two decades of concerted investment and operational experience, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) armed forces, dubbed “Little Sparta,” are now one of the leading militaries in the region. With approximately 63,000 active uniformed personnel for a population of 9.9 million (only 1.2 million of which are Emirati), allegedly augmented by foreign auxiliary and mercenary forces, the UAE has gained global attention for its role in countering Iran and violent extremist networks and for interventions in Yemen and Libya. It is one of the United States’ closest military partners in the Middle East. American scholar Kenneth Pollack assesses that, taken as a whole, the UAE’s military is the most capable among the Arab states, while there may be variance across the force.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, Military Affairs, and Alliance
Political Geography:: United Arab Emirates, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

1556. Power Transition in the South China Sea Challenges for Regional Peace

Author:: Suman Naz and Muhammad Rizwan
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: The South China Sea is a contested region between China and different smaller states ( Vietnam, the Philippines, T aiwan, Malaysia, and Brunei) of the Asia Pacific region. The United States is acting as a balancer by supporting smaller nations against assertive Chinese policies. Moreover, the United States has a military presence in the region. According to the US, it has a military presence to protect its allies and freedom of navigation. China considers these US designs as a threat to its interest in the region. The United State who was once considered the sole superpower in the world is now challenged by China in the South China Sea. Power Transition theory explains if the emerging superpower does not follow the rules established by the existing superpower then the conflict is inevitable. As China is building artificial islands, it could invite a strong response from the United States that could eventually lead to a major conflict. This Study analyzes the conflict in the South China Sea by using the lens of Power Transition Theory.
Topic:: Hegemony, Peace, Transition, Emerging Powers, and Power
Political Geography:: China, Malaysia, Taiwan, Asia, Vietnam, Philippines, North America, Brunei, United States of America, and South China Sea

1557. US-Philippines: Resetting the Security Alliance?

Author:: Julius Caesar Trajano
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: Despite Duterte’s desire to shift Philippine security policy away from its treaty alliance with the US, Manila remains a close American ally. Key domestic, strategic and humanitarian factors actually make the alliance healthier. The Biden administration might just wait for Duterte to finish his term in a year's time.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Alliance
Political Geography:: Philippines, North America, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

1558. American Regionalism and Brazilian Diplomatic Discourse (1946-2019)

Author:: Felipe Ferreira de Oliveira Rocha and Marcelo de Almeida Medeiros
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: In this article, we analyse the content of the speeches delivered by Brazilian Presidents, Foreign Ministers and Ambassadors at annual Ordinary Sessions of the United Nations General Assembly in the period between 1946 and 2019. Our primary objective is to find out how often and under what circumstances Brazilian diplomats mentioned the subject of American regionalism and whether the mention was made in reference to specific projects or to abstract concepts of regional integration and cooperation. Based on this analysis, we highlight the great deal of importance that was given to MERCOSUR – and, to a lesser extent, UNASUR – to the detriment of other regional integration projects, as well as the preference, by Brazilian diplomats, for a flexible, low-profile, ab- stract and low-cost discursive approach. In short, we found that cooperation and integration have frequently been discussed, although little attention has been devoted to the limits and possibilities of each project under construction.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, United Nations, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: Brazil, South America, North America, and United States of America

1559. US Foreign Policy to South America since 9/11: Neglect or Militarisation?

Author:: Livia Peres Milani
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: Academic literature on US Foreign Policy to South America usually states its lack of atten- tion to the region in the post 9/11 period. I aim to problematize this assertion through an analysis of US regional security policy. Therefore, I consider data referring to military and economic assistance, arms transfers, and the SOUTHCOM position towards its area of responsibility, as well as official documents and diplomatic cables. I conclude that, although the region was not a priority, a waning in US actions or a moment of neglect in its policy towards it was likewise not observed. From a historical perspective, the area was never the main focus of attention, but there is a specialized bu- reaucracy that works on the region to maintain US hegemony. Therefore, the investigation indicates that Latin American assertiveness during the 2000s was caused primarily by the conjunction of the ascension of leftist governments and quest for autonomy, as well as by Chinese and Russian involve- ment in Latin America, but not by US neglect. The article is divided into six sections, including the introduction and final remarks. Following the introduction, I analyse the academic literature regarding USA-Latin American relations in the second section, the US assistance in the third, the SOUTHCOM postures in the fourth, and the strategies deployed by the USA regarding great powers and arms transfers in the fifth. Finally, I present the final remarks.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Regional Cooperation, Terrorism, Military Strategy, and Counter-terrorism
Political Geography:: Latin America, North America, and United States of America

1560. The Trump Foreign Policy Legacy In The Middle East

Author:: James Franklin Jeffrey
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: In his foreign policy, President Trump followed new approaches and shaped the international stage in ways that will be hard for the Biden administration to reverse. These approaches, nowhere more apparent than in the Middle East, include, first, focus on near peer competition, in the Middle East, that included containing Russia, Iran, and Islamic violent extremists such as al-Qaida and particularly Daesh or ISIS. The second is reliance upon partners and allies. The Trump administration succeeded by its standards using the above approaches: Iran’s regional advance was contested and to some degree constrained, Teheran is under far greater economic pressure and faced with a regional coalition encouraged by the Abraham Accords. The administration had moved most of the region beyond the endless Palestinian issue as the lodestone of regional diplomacy, destroyed the ISIS territorial state, and with help from Turkey contained Russian advances. With the exception of the Iranian nuclear file, this looks like success. The issue now is whether the Biden administration can build on this success or revert to Obama
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Leadership, and Transition
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1561. What Is Wrong?

Author:: Kemal Koprulu
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: The United States of America is in deep trouble. The political infrastructure of the US, along with its underpinning moral fabric, has been crumbling for some time and is now on the brink of collapse. If it does not restructure and revamp its political system with transparency, accountability, political ethics, and rule of law, the US will be beleaguered by domestic turmoil and be thrusted into a darker hole vis-à-vis rising powers such as China. If the US fails, the whole world will fail. While delving into the systemic issues that plague America’s societal values and political foundation, this article, the first of a two-part article, suggests ways the US can redeem its status as a moral authority on the global stage.
Topic:: Hegemony, Political stability, Rule of Law, and Morality
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1562. Initial Biden Administration Policy Steps to Advance Israeli-Palestinian Peacemaking

Author:: Mitvim
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: This document presents recommendations for initial policy steps that the Biden Administration can take to advance Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking. It describes the current state of play in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as Biden takes office, identifies nine key goals for the new administration in advancing peacemaking, and outlines concrete policy steps for their implementation. These are the goals outlined in the document: (1) Highlighting the importance of resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict; (2) Renewing ties and building trust with the Palestinian leadership; (3) Emphasizing US commitment to the two-state solution and formulating parameters for a final-status agreement; (4) Preserving the feasibility of the two-state solution and drawing red lines; (5) Leading multilateral steps, such as creating a new international mechanism and an incentives package; (6) Leveraging Israeli-Arab normalization to advance the peace process; (7) Improving the situation in Gaza and ending the internal Palestinian divide; (8) Empowering pro-peace Israeli and Palestinian actors, including in civil society; (9) Setting a constructive tone to relations with the Israeli leadership and public.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Conflict, Peace, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

1563. Initial Biden Administration Policy Steps to Advance Israeli-Palestinian Peacemaking

Author:: Kamal Ali-Hassan, Ehud Eiran, Nimrod Goren, Merav Kahana-Dagan, Roee Kibrik, Lior Lehrs, Gabriel Mitchell, Elie Podeh, Ksenia Svetlova, Nadav Tamir, and Yonatan Touval
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: This document summarizes recommendations for initial policy steps that the Biden Administration could take to advance Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking. It identifies nine key goals for the new administration and outlines concrete policy steps for their implementation.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Peace, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

1564. Addressing Needs, Promoting Peace: A Proposal for an International Incentives Package for Israeli-Palestinian Peace

Author:: Lior Lehrs, Moien Odeh, Nimrod Goren, and Huda Abu Arqoub
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: peace processes and have the potential to contribute to the advancement of Israeli-Palestinian conflict resolution. A team of Israeli and Palestinian policy experts developed a joint proposal for an international package of incentives for peace. The proposal defines the central needs of the parties that the incentives package must address, focusing on security, recognition and legitimacy, religious rights, economic prosperity and domestic needs. It examines which international actors can be relevant in addressing those needs and should be part of an international incentives package, elaborating on the potential role of the US, the EU, and the Arab and the Muslim world. The proposal also discusses when and how a package of incentives should be introduced and delivered, and what should be the international mechanism required to promote it.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, European Union, Peace, and Incentives
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

1565. US-Iran Relations After Trump: The Path to Peace is Open

Author:: Assal Rad
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: The attacks on 11 September 2001 not only shaped the focus of US foreign policy over the last two decades, but also de!ned how a generation of Americans understood the gravity of these policies by bringing the cost and tragedy of con"ict home. For many young Americans, it was the !rst time they became aware of the extent of US interventionism and how it impacts the way other nations and peoples view the United States. But events over the last year in the United States have brought the attitude of US foreign policy—which has long been driven by the idea that problems can be solved exclusively through militarism and force—much closer to home. Images of police violently confronting Black Lives Matter protestors and an insurrection at the Capitol were often likened to images of war zones abroad, the very wars started by the United States.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, and Peace
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

1566. Cuban-American Relations Through The Lens of a Cuban American

Author:: Merari Hall Fortun
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: Ileft Cuba as a young two-year-old child on 9 April 1968 with my parents, an older brother, and sister. My parents were also expecting another child, my younger brother, who was later born in the United States. My parents’ oldest son was of military age and at university and was not granted the exit visa with the rest of the family. He would eventually join us as an adult, ten years later with his own family. We settled in Union City, New Jersey, after a few months at my father's uncle's home in New York. As I recall, the residents of Union City (or at least in my close community) at the time were mostly Cubans; a good number of Italians; a few Puerto Ricans, Dominicans, Germans; and people who practiced conservative Judaism. In our home we only spoke Spanish, but I remember the feeling of not understanding all of the children when I played outside, as they would speak English, the language I was yet to speak or understand. I was pretty much always surrounded by Cubans, the Cuban culture, and an all-Spanish community. Not a day went by in our home when Cuba was not mentioned. My mother had left all of her six brothers behind, and my father, his only sister. Both had left behind numerous nephews and nieces, friends, neighbors, and a whole life's worth of relationships. The main reason for the daily mention, however, was that their eldest son remained there and this separation was too much to bear and very painful for them. All they wanted was to have the family unit together again.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Immigration, Peace, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: Cuba, Caribbean, North America, and United States of America

1567. American Invasion And Withdrawals Post 9/11

Author:: Ibrahim Karatas
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: When the United States was hit by al-Qaida's terrorist attack on 11 September 2001 (hereafter 9/11 attacks), not only Americans but the whole world was shocked: The world’s only superpower was attacked at home and had lost more than three thousand people. To take revenge for the attack as well as to prevent new ones, the Bush administration decided to invade both Afghanistan and Iraq, which they claimed were sheltering and supporting al-Qaida. Afghanistan was invaded on 7 October 2001 because the US wanted (1) to eliminate Osama bin Laden (the mastermind of 9/11) and al-Qaida; (2) to remove the Taliban group from power and bring stability to Afghanistan by creating a democratic and peaceful state.[1] The US Army subsequently invaded Iraq in 2003, claiming that Saddam Hussain was supporting terrorism and producing chemical weapons. There were also allegations that the Hussain regime was behind the 9/11 attacks, but it was never proven. The US eventually removed both Taliban and Saddam Hussain from power and captured Hussain, who was later judged and executed by the new Iraqi government on 30 December 2006. US special forces killed Laden on 2 May 2011. As of today, the US has killed its two archenemies and changed regimes allegedly supporting terrorism in both Afghanistan and Iraq, yet could not bring stability. What is more, the remaining US troops are preparing to leave the two countries. Neither Afghanistan nor Iraq is in better condition than the pre-invasion era as both states have failed, lack a strong authority, and cannot !ght terrorism. In Afghanistan, the Taliban was the enemy to be removed, however the US’s recent agreement with the organization has paved the way for re-control of the country by the group. On the other hand, Iraq has become a land of widespread terrorism, and the country is more divided than before, not mentioning Iranian in"uence on Baghdad. Based on the current situation, my arguments are that (1) the US is about to make the same mistake it did in Vietnam, and (2) Afghanistan and Iraq might again become the hub of terrorist organizations as well as regional rivalries. Although I do not approve of the US invasions, as Afghanistan and Iraq saw the worse with its invasion, these countries will face the worst with the US’s withdrawal.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, War on Terror, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

1568. The US–China trade war and phase one agreement

Author:: Chad P. Bown
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The Trump administration changed US trade policy toward China in ways that will take years for researchers to sort out. This paper makes four specific contributions to that research agenda. First, it carefully marks the timing, definitions, and scale of the products subject to the tariff changes affecting US-China trade from January 20, 2017 through January 20, 2021. One result is that each country increased its average duty on imports from the other to rates of roughly 20 percent, with the new tariffs and counter-tariffs covering more than 50 percent of bilateral trade. Second, the paper highlights two additional channels through which bilateral tariffs changed during this period: product exclusions from tariffs and trade remedy policies of antidumping and countervailing duties. These two channels have received less research attention. Third, it explores why China fell more than 40 percent short of meeting the goods purchase commitments set out for 2020, the first year of the phase one agreement. Finally, the paper considers additional trade policy actions—involving forced labor, export controls for reasons of national security or human rights, and reclassification of trade with Hong Kong—likely to affect US-China trade beyond the Trump administration.
Topic:: Education, Trade Wars, Trade Policy, and Protectionism
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

1569. COVID-19 and the 2020 US presidential election: Did the pandemic cost Donald Trump reelection?

Author:: Marcus Noland and Eva (Yiwen) Zhang
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: By Election Day 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic had killed 234,244 Americans and caused the sharpest macroeconomic downturn in US history. Hypothetical calculations using county-level electoral data show that in a “no pandemic” scenario or a scenario in which the severity of the pandemic was mitigated by 30 percent, Donald Trump would have lost the popular vote but won the electoral vote. In the 20 percent mitigation scenario, the electoral vote would have been tied, giving Trump a presumptive victory in the House of Representatives. For the second time in a row (and the third time since 2000), the candidate who lost the popular vote would have been elected president of the United States.
Topic:: Government, Politics, Elections, Donald Trump, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1570. The role of childcare challenges in the US jobs market recovery during the COVID-19 pandemic

Author:: Jason Furman, Melissa Kearney, and Wilson Powell III
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: This working paper examines how much of the overall decline in employment between the beginning of 2020 and 2021 can be explained by excess job loss among parents of young children, and mothers specifically. Using data from the Current Population Survey (CPS), the authors confirm that, in general, mothers with young children have experienced a larger decline in employment, as compared (unconditionally) with other adults, including fathers. This excess job loss is driven by mothers without a four-year college degree. The main point of the paper is to build off this observation and examine how much of the aggregate employment deficit in early 2021 can be explained by parent-specific issues, such as childcare struggles. To examine this question, the authors construct counterfactual employment rates and labor force participation rates that assign to mothers of young children the percent change in employment and labor force participation rates experienced by comparable women without young children. The paper considers multiple definition, sample, and counterfactual specification alternatives. The analysis yields robust evidence that differential job loss among mothers of young children accounts for a negligible share of the ongoing aggregate employment deficit. The result is even stronger (and flips signs) if all parents are considered, since fathers with young children experienced less job loss than other men. The practical implication of these findings is that nearly all of the aggregate ongoing employment deficit is explained by factors that affect workers more broadly, as opposed to challenges specific to working parents.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Children, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Childcare
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1571. Do US firms have an incentive to comply with the FLSA and the NLRA?

Author:: Anna Stansbury
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: To what extent do US firms have an incentive to comply with the Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA) and the National Labor Relations Act (NLRA)? Stansbury examines this question through a simple comparison of the expected costs of noncompliance (in terms of legal sanctions) to the profits firms can earn through noncompliance. In the case of the FLSA minimum wage and overtime provisions, typical willful violators are required to pay back wages owed and in some cases additional penalties, if detected by the Department of Labor (DOL). Based on available data on the penalties levied, a typical firm would need to expect a chance of at least 78-88 percent that its violation would be detected in order to have an incentive to comply with the FLSA. In practice, the probability of detection many firms can expect to face is likely much lower than this. In the case of the NLRA, a firm that fires a worker illegally is required to reinstate the worker with back pay if the violation is detected. Based on empirical estimates of the effect of unionization on firm profits, a typical firm may have an incentive to fire a worker illegally for union activities if this illegal firing would reduce the likelihood of unionization at the firm by as little as 0.15-2 percent. These analyses illustrate that neither the FLSA nor the NLRA penalty and enforcement regimes create sufficient incentive to comply for many firms. In this context, the substantial evidence of minimum wage and overtime violations, and of illegal employer behavior toward unions, is not surprising.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Regulation, and Economy
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1572. Raising a caution flag on US financial sanctions against China

Author:: Jeffrey J. Schott
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: China’s policies in Xinjiang, Hong Kong, and the South China Sea and its ongoing support for Iran, North Korea, and Venezuela pose major challenges for the United States, where bipartisan pressure is growing to ramp up punitive sanctions against leading Chinese firms and financial institutions. Financial sanctions freeze the US assets or bar US entry of the targeted individuals and firms and prohibit US financial firms from doing business with them. Schott explains why US officials should carefully weigh the risks to international financial markets and US economic interests before imposing punitive sanctions on major financial institutions engaged with China. The collateral costs of such sanctions would be sizable, damaging US producers, financial institutions, and US alliances. By restricting access of major banks to international payments in US dollars and barring use of messaging systems like SWIFT, tougher US financial sanctions would effectively “weaponize” the dollar; friends and foes alike would be pushed to seek alternatives to dollar transactions that, over time, would weaken the international role of the dollar. Instead of doubling down on current unilateral financial sanctions, US policy should deploy sanctions in collaboration with allies and calibrate trade and financial controls to match the expected policy achievements.
Topic:: Human Rights, Sanctions, Finance, and Economy
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

1573. Will industrial and agricultural subsidies ever be reformed?

Author:: Gary Clyde Hufbauer
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Open Sub-navigation BackOpen Sub-navigation Publications Back Policy Briefs Working Papers Books PIIE Briefings Open Sub-navigation Commentary Back Op-Eds Testimonies Speeches and Papers Topics & Regions PIIE Charts What Is Globalization? Educational Resources Open Sub-navigation Back Senior Research Staff Research Analysts Trade Talks Open Sub-navigation Back RealTime Economic Issues Watch Trade & Investment Policy Watch China Economic Watch North Korea: Witness to Transformation 中文 Open Sub-navigation Back All Events Financial Statements Global Connections Global Economic Prospects Stavros Niarchos Foundation Lectures Trade Winds Open Sub-navigation Back News Releases Multimedia Media Center Open Sub-navigation Back Board of Directors Staff Employment Contact Annual Report Transparency Policy POLICY BRIEF VIEW SHARING OPTIONS Will industrial and agricultural subsidies ever be reformed? Gary Clyde Hufbauer (PIIE) Policy Brief21-5 March 2021 Photo Credit: REUTERS/Denis Balibouse One economic argument for government subsidies is that they are necessary to compensate firms and industries for benefits they provide to society at large but cannot capture in the prices they charge for goods or services. For example, subsidies to renewable energy are defended because renewable energy limits carbon emissions. When a major economy subsidizes extensively, however, its trading partners are drawn into the game, with losses all around. As the prisoner’s dilemma suggests, a better outcome would entail mutual restraint. But the goal of mutual restraint is no less difficult in international trade than it is in international arms control. Both the European Union and the US federal system try, in different ways, to regulate industrial subsidies. Hufbauer examines efforts to contain unjustifiable subsidies and proposes modest improvements, bearing in mind that as countries struggle to overcome the global economic downturn resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, there is little appetite for restoring a free market economy—one in which firms compete with minimum government assistance or regulation. Selective upgrading of the rulebook may nevertheless be possible.
Topic:: Agriculture, Government, Reform, European Union, Regulation, Manufacturing, Industry, COVID-19, and Subsidies
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

1574. The unappreciated trend toward unilateral trade liberalization

Author:: Robert Z. Lawrence
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Afrequently voiced complaint from the Trump administration was that US firms have faced a competitive disadvantage in exports because the US market is open and US tariffs are low but US trading partners protect their markets with high tariffs. The administration used this concern to justify raising US tariffs whenever it could. Lawrence argues that these claims should be more nuanced and account for the extensive unilateral liberalization by many countries over the past 30 years and that the grievances that motivated the Trump trade policies are increasingly misplaced. Many developing countries have reduced their tariffs unilaterally to rates that are far lower than they applied three decades ago and far less than the bound rates reflected in their World Trade Organization (WTO) obligations. Globally, on average, tariffs were not raised during the global financial crisis of 2008 and continued to decline through at least 2018. Even when shocks from imports resulted in serious injury to domestic industries, several developing countries temporarily provided safeguard protection but at levels that were lower than their WTO bound rates. This evidence of import liberalization also suggests that rising protectionism was not responsible for the slow growth in world trade that has been evident since 2011. It remains uncertain whether countries will now respond to disruptions to global supply chains since 2018 caused by Trump’s trade policies and the COVID-19 pandemic by reversing their tariff liberalization stance, but the sustained enthusiasm for new megaregional trade agreements suggests many countries will not.
Topic:: Emerging Markets, World Trade Organization, Trade Wars, and Protectionism
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

1575. The evolving gender gap in labor force participation during COVID-19

Author:: Simeon Djankov, Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg, Lisa Hyland, and Eva (Yiwen) Zhang
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Despite many significant gains by women in the paid workforce in recent decades, the percentage of women participating in the labor force has remained lower than the percentage of male participants. Now, in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and the global economic downturn it precipitated, the gap in labor force participation between men and women in some economies has actually widened, with potentially damaging repercussions for women’s career prospects and pay. The pandemic has disproportionately affected sectors employing more women, such as retail stores, restaurants, and the hotel and hospitality business. An increase in family caregiving responsibilities because of school and childcare closures has also fallen on working mothers' shoulders. Both factors have pulled women out of the labor force. The authors track trends in male and female labor force participation in 43 countries and find substantial differences across countries in the way women’s participation has been affected relative to that of men. In some countries, such as Colombia, Chile, and Cyprus, the gender gap in labor force participation widened the most during the pandemic. The gender gap also widened in the United States, driving 2.5 million women from their jobs in what Vice President Kamala Harris called a “national emergency” for women. In other economies, such as Luxembourg and Lithuania, the gender gap in labor force participation, unexpectedly, shrank during the early period of the pandemic. On average, female employees have fared better in countries where women are less concentrated in the services sector, less likely to be employed as temporary workers, and where laws supported greater equality at the onset of the crisis. Greater government expenditure on childcare in the pre-COVID-19 era, however, does not appear to have insulated female workers from the damaging repercussions of the pandemic.
Topic:: Economics, Gender Issues, Labor Issues, Women, Services, COVID-19, and Empowerment
Political Geography:: Colombia, Chile, Cyprus, Global Focus, and United States of America

1576. Startups in the United States during the pandemic reflect some dynamism amid job losses

Author:: Simeon Djankov and Eva (Yiwen) Zhang
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: New business applications have surged in the United States since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. The growth is driven largely by startups in online retail, transportation, and personal services. Many of these new entrepreneurs are self-employed and were likely laid off and forced into entrepreneurship by necessity. No official data are available yet on the number of businesses destroyed in 2020, because business data for firms that close without entering bankruptcy are lagging. But the authors calculate that firm births may have surpassed firm deaths during the pandemic. While this boom in business entry is a tribute to the adaptability and potential innovative spirit in US capitalism, one should not be overly optimistic about jobs created in this wave of startups. As many of these new startups are by people forced to strike out on their own, the number of jobs created per new firm is even smaller than it was during previous US recessions. And like online businesses started around the last recession (e.g., Uber, Airbnb, and Venmo), some of these new firms may turn out to be major contenders in their sectors, displacing workers employed by their traditional rivals.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Labor Issues, Financial Crisis, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1577. Economic costs and benefits of accelerated COVID-19 vaccinations

Author:: Joseph E. Gagnon, Steve Kamin, and John Kearns
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: COVID-19 vaccination programs are generally understood to be a prerequisite for a return to normalcy in our social and economic lives. Emergency measures to research, test, produce, and distribute vaccines have been expensive, but increases in GDP resulting from the vaccines are expected to exceed those costs by wide margins. Few studies have quantified the economic costs and benefits of different rates of COVID-19 vaccination, however. This Policy Brief focuses on developing such a quantitative assessment for the United States; the approach may be applied to other countries as well. Two illustrative scenarios support the conclusion that most plausible options to accelerate vaccinations would have economic benefits that far exceed their costs, in addition to their more important accomplishment of saving lives. This Policy Brief shows that if, for example, the United States had adopted a more aggressive policy in 2020 of unconditional contracts with vaccine producers, the up-front cost would have been higher but thousands of lives would have been saved and economic growth would have been stronger. Instead, the federal government conditioned its contracts on the vaccines’ being proven safe and effective. The projections presented in this analysis show that even if unconditional contracts led to support for vaccines that failed the phase III trial and ultimately were not used, the cost would have been worth it.
Topic:: Economics, Health, Crisis Management, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1578. Overheating debate: Why not in Japan?

Author:: Egor Gornostay and Madi Sarsenbayev
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: An intense debate has erupted over whether the unprecedented size of the US fiscal stimulus will cause the US economy to overheat and generate high inflation. To date, the debate has focused primarily on the United States, even though many other developed economies responded to the COVID-19 crisis with unprecedented economic stimulus packages. By some measures, Japan stands out: The total amount of its three consecutive stimulus packages is estimated to exceed 50 percent of its GDP, about twice as high as the US fiscal packages (about 26 percent of US GDP). However, overheating concerns are not being actively raised for Japan. This Policy Brief finds that although Japan’s headline number looks astonishingly high, the actual size of its discretionary fiscal measures is about 16 percent of GDP, substantially smaller than the total size of the US packages. US fiscal stimulus is the largest among Group of Seven (G7) countries relative to GDP, justifying the attention economists have given it. The United Kingdom is estimated to spend more than Japan as a proportion of GDP, but even the UK stimulus program markedly lags behind that of the United States. If additional stimulus measures making their way through the legislative process in Canada are counted, Japan’s fiscal stimulus looks even smaller and would amount to being only average in size among G7 countries. Given this and the lackluster performance of its economy in the first quarter of 2021, it is unlikely that Japan will find itself in overheating territory any time soon.
Topic:: Inflation, G7, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

1579. U.S. Economic Challenges for the Biden Administration

Author:: Paweł Markiewicz
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The U.S. economy is emerging from the recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. To maintain growth and at the same time achieve climate and technology goals, the Biden administration is pushing large socio-economic programmes. To pass them in Congress, the administration will be forced to reach compromises with factions within the Democratic Party. Biden also will need some Republican support. In foreign policy, these programmes aim to strengthen the U.S. position in its rivalry with China, something that also opens greater possibilities for closer cooperation with the EU.
Topic:: Economics, Politics, COVID-19, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: China, North America, and United States of America

1580. A Vision of the Future: The U.S. Intelligence Report “Global Trends 2040”

Author:: Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: In April 2021, the U.S. intelligence community published the extensive report “Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World”. It analyses the main demographic, political, and strategic trends that will likely shape the world for the next two decades. The report will be intensively used by the Biden administration in the preparation of the new U.S. National Security Strategy and National Defense Strategy, as well as in new military doctrines. The “Global Trends” document reflects the main tendencies in American strategic thinking, such as the growing “Sinocentrism” and traditional U.S. attachment to transatlantic relations.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Intelligence, and Strategic Planning
Political Geography:: China and United States of America

1581. Israel Escalates Actions Towards Iran

Author:: Michał Wojnarowicz
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Since last year, Israel has increased its operations against Iran’s nuclear programme. The actions corresponded to the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” policy on Iran. Currently, the Israeli actions are an attempt to put pressure on the negotiations launched by the U.S. and Iran to restore the nuclear agreement. Israel opposes those talks, but further escalation will be limited by the stance of the Biden administration.
Topic:: Nuclear Power, Cybersecurity, Joe Biden, and Escalation
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, and United States of America

1582. Developments in U.S. Defence Spending: Implications for NATO

Author:: Artur Kacprzyk
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: After a few years of increases, U.S. defence spending is likely to stagnate. At the same time, the needs related to the U.S. priority of deterring China will grow. The effect will be that the U.S. will continue to call for a greater contribution of NATO members to their own defence, even given the softening of transatlantic tensions and positive signals regarding the U.S. military presence in Europe.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, Military Spending, and Deterrence
Political Geography:: China, North America, and United States of America

1583. The Impact of the Repression in Xinjiang on China’s Relations with Other Countries

Author:: Marcin Przychodniak
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The policy of repression of Uyghurs in Xinjiang has become a significant element of criticism of China in the world. In March this year, the EU, U.S., Canada, and the United Kingdom imposed sanctions on China over the matter. Moreover, the Netherlands, the U.S. and Canada described China’s actions as genocide. For China, however, its actions involving Uyghurs are a key element of domestic politics, which is why it presents accusations as disinformation. It has imposed counter sanctions, including on the EU, and their wide scope indicates that for China, Xinjiang is more important than, for example, the ratification of the Comprehensive Investment Agreement (CAI) with the EU.
Topic:: International Relations, Genocide, Human Rights, European Union, and Uyghurs
Political Geography:: China, United Kingdom, Europe, Canada, Asia, Netherlands, United States of America, and Xinjiang

1584. A Crash Test: EU Strategic Autonomy in the Foreign Policy of France

Author:: Łukasz Maślanka
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: France uses the idea of EU strategic autonomy as a tool in its own foreign policy. France’s aim is to redefine the Union’s partnership with the U.S. and NATO. Hence, the activity of President Emmanuel Macron in emphasising the differences between the positions of the U.S. and the EU, especially in relations with China and Russia. Macron’s rhetoric worries other European countries and hides the real problems in EU security policy, such as insufficient financing of the Common Security and Defence Policy as well as the lack of a clear definition of strategic autonomy.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, European Union, and Strategic Autonomy
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, France, and United States of America

1585. The State and Future of U.S.-Belarus Relations

Author:: Andrzej Dąbrowski
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The development of U.S.-Belarus relations has been hampered by the events following the Belarusian presidential election in August 2020. In response to the Lukashenka regime’s violation of human rights, the U.S. extended a set of sanctions against the country and will most likely reinstate suspended economic restrictions. At the same time, the Biden administration will expand support for civil society, which creates a point of cooperation with Poland and the EU to coordinate aid activities and build international support for democratic changes in Belarus.
Topic:: Civil Society, Human Rights, Bilateral Relations, and Elections
Political Geography:: Eurasia, North America, Belarus, and United States of America

1586. The Prospects for Changes in U.S. Policy towards Latin America

Author:: Bartlomiej Znojek
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The Biden administration will seek to rebuild the U.S. reputation and influence in Latin America. It will strengthen cooperation with Latin American partners in the field of climate change and the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic, among others. The pandemic and its socio-economic impacts will increase the scale of the challenges facing the U.S. in its relations with Latin America, including in migration and development cooperation. The Biden administration’s approach to the region may facilitate the U.S.-EU dialogue, for example, on efforts to overcome the political and humanitarian crises in Venezuela.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Migration, European Union, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: Latin America, Venezuela, North America, and United States of America

1587. NATO on the Road to a New Strategy

Author:: Wojciech Lorenz
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: During the meeting of NATO foreign ministers on 2–3 December 2020, a group of experts presented the report “NATO 2030. United for a New Era” about strengthening the political dimension and consultation mechanisms of the Alliance. The report indicates a possible consensus on the expansion of the Alliance’s tasks, including on a common policy towards China. The document increases the chances that the allies will decide to start work on a new NATO strategy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, Military Strategy, Alliance, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and United States of America

1588. Operation Condor, The War on Drugs, and Counterinsurgency in the Golden Triangle (1977-1983)

Author:: Adela Cedillo
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: In the late 1960s, the Mexican government launched a series of counternarcotics campaigns characterized by the militarization of drug production zones, particularly in the northwestern region—the so-called Golden Triangle, epicenter of both production and trafficking of marijuana and opium poppy since the 1930s. Operations Canador (1969–1975) and Trizo (1976) served as a laboratory for methods to curb drug production, ranging from harassment of drug growers to the aerial defoliation of illicit crops. Operation Condor (1977–1988) combined and enhanced these strategies, wreaking havoc on communities of alleged drug growers, but without entirely disrupting the drug industry. This paper explores the role of the US government in the militarization of Mexico’s anti-drug policy, underscoring how the ruling party (the Institutional Revolutionary Party, PRI) took advantage of this shift to tackle domestic issues and reassert its hegemony. I argue that Operation Condor functioned as a counterinsurgency campaign oriented to thwart both social and armed movements, eliminate competitors in the narcotics market, and reorganize the drug industry to protect successful drug lords. Operation Condor also caused the decentralization of the drug industry from the northwest and created a new clientelistic pact between drug lords and national security agencies, such as the Federal Security Directorate (DFS), the Office of the Attorney General of Mexico–Federal Judicial Police (PGR-PJF), and the Secretariat of National Defense (SEDENA), which benefited from drug proceeds. Finally, the de facto state of siege imposed in the Golden Triangle produced thousands of victims of harassment, torture, rape, murder, forced-disappearance, and displacement; massive human rights abuses that authorities either concealed or denied.
Topic:: Security, Corruption, Human Rights, Governance, Social Movement, History, Borders, and Violence
Political Geography:: Latin America, North America, Mexico, and United States of America

1589. The Vision Group on U.S.-ROK Relations: Insights and Recommendations

Author:: KEI
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: The Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI), with the generous support of the Korea Foundation, organized six “Vision Group” roundtable conversations with leading American scholars and commentators to discuss the United States’ relationship with the Republic of Korea. The first was held in December 2019, the last in November 2020. The intent was to consider the future of relations during a time of change. The Vision Group comprised a wide range of expertise and opinion. This record conveys some of the insights and recommendations that arose during the conversations.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, and Human Rights
Political Geography:: China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America

1590. Adapting the U.S.-South Korea Alliance to an Indo-Pacific Regional Architecture: Challenges and Prospects

Author:: Andrew Yeo
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: This paper addresses the U.S.-South Korea alliance in the context of Asia’s evolving security architecture. At the crux of the issue is the Biden administration’s desire to uphold the rules-based international order by reinforcing the network of inter-Asia alliances and multilateral institutions, on one hand, and the Moon government’s relative reluctance to deepen and expand security ties linked to an Indo-Pacific strategy that counter-balances China, on the other hand. Leveraging the existing alliance relationship, the Biden administration should encourage Seoul to coordinate with other like-minded countries committed to sustaining a rules-based regional order while assisting Seoul in mitigating potential strategic vulnerabilities. Conversely, as a middle power, South Korea must not shy away from the region’s security architecture, but instead actively coordinate with other actors in shaping the region’s strategic environment. By working in concert with other countries in the Indo-Pacific, Seoul can reduce its geopolitical vulnerability while advancing its national and regional interests.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, Geopolitics, and Alliance
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

1591. 2021 Report on American Attitudes towards the U.S.-ROK Alliance and North Korea Policy

Author:: Troy Stangarone and Juni Kim
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: KEI’s 2021 Report on American Attitudes on the U.S.-ROK Alliance and North Korea Policy summarizes results from a survey commissioned by KEI and conducted by YouGov on May 6th to May 10th, 2021 in advance of the U.S.-ROK summit on May 21st, 2021. The survey asked Americans their views on the U.S.-South Korea relationship, North Korea policy, and the U.S.’ role in the East Asian region.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

1592. The challenge to US hegemony and the “Gilpin Dilemma”

Author:: Giorgio Romano Schutte
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: This article makes a comparison between the challenges faced by the US to maintain its hegemonic position at the end of the 1970s and in the 2010s. To do so we review Robert Gilpin’s writing during the first period. He suggested the US had three options: 1) a defensive protectionist reaction 2) fragmentation of the international system 3) a new wave of innovation, (“rejuvenation”). It is argued that the Reagan administration was able to establish support for the third option. We argue the US is now faced with the same dilemma again, but with a different kind of challenger: China.
Topic:: Foreign Direct Investment, Hegemony, Conflict, and Innovation
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

1593. The demise of the INF Treaty: a path dependence analysis

Author:: Augusto C. Dall'Agnol and Marco Cepik
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: This article explains changes in strategic stability through a path dependence framework, discussing its antecedent conditions, increasing returns, cleavages, critical junctures, reactive sequences, and legacy. We identify the leading causes of its formation, reproduction, modification, and, eventually, its end. Such an analysis is relevant as far as we observe significant changes in cornerstone’s aspects of strategic stability after the abrogation of the ABM Treaty and the INF Treaty. We argue that strategic stability as an institution passes through radical modifications produced by reactive sequences breaking the causal loop that allowed its reproduction since its formation.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, and INF Treaty
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1594. Northeast Asia Defense Transparency Index 2020-21

Author:: M. Patrick Hulme and Tai Ming Cheung
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:: Growing distrust in East Asia, especially in the security arena, is increasingly critical as new and long-standing hotspots— including the Taiwan strait, Korean peninsula, East China Sea, and South China Sea—become more volatile. The need for confidence-building measures is clear, and a central tool of confidence building is defense transparency. The Defense Transparency Index (DTI), a project of the University of California’s Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, ranks six countries on their efforts to promote transparency in defense and national security, including the People’s Republic of China, Japan, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), the Republic of Korea, and the major external powers most involved in the region—the United States and Russia.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Geopolitics, and Transparency
Political Geography:: Russia, Japan, Taiwan, East Asia, Asia, North Korea, Korea, East China, and United States of America

1595. Strategic Annual Report 2020

Author:: Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA)
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
Abstract:: The year 2020 was characterized by the intensification of US-China confrontation and strategic competition, which had been pointed out in the Strategic Annual Report 2019, in all areas from military and security affairs as well as dominance in advanced technologies and supply chains to narratives on coronavirus responses. Amid this confrontation, the rules-based international order faced even more severe challenges; the multilateral framework established after World War II with the United Nations at its core lost its US leadership and fell into serious dysfunction. While the international community is struggling to cope with the rapidly expanding outbreak of the novel coronavirus, China has been moving to expand its influence through increasingly authoritarian and assertive domestic and international policies on the rule of law and territorial issues, as well as through economic initiatives such as the existing “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI) and its responses to the pandemic. The confrontation with the United States is becoming more and more pronounced, and the Indo-Pacific region is turning itself into divided and contested oceans. In this transforming strategic environment, expressions of support for the vision of a rulesbased “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” (FOIP) that Japan has been promoting for the past several years, or announcements of similar visions have followed one after the other. The year 2020 also saw significant strengthening of the cooperative framework among four countries – Japan, the United States, Australia, and India (QUAD) – together with the enhancement of bilateral cooperation between countries in this group. At the same time, progress was also made in a regional cooperation framework that includes China with the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) Agreement in East Asia. The Strategic Annual Report 2020 looks back at major international developments since last year’s Report through the end of 2020, focusing on the transformation of the strategic environment in the Indo-Pacific region and the response of the international community.
Topic:: International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, Multilateralism, COVID-19, and Destabilization
Political Geography:: Russia, Japan, China, Middle East, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

1596. US Export Control of Emerging Technologies

Author:: Yoshiaki Takayama
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
Abstract:: Competition among great powers is accelerating moves to review international interdependence from the perspectives of foreign policy and national security. Since 2019, the US Department of Commerce has introduced export control of emerging technologies, in essence managing international interdependence based on foreign policy and security logic. With the above in mind, this report examines the US government's export control of emerging technologies and its implications.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, National Security, Science and Technology, Power Politics, and Exports
Political Geography:: United States of America

1597. China Promotes Emerging Technology for Dual Use: The Case of Blockchain Technology

Author:: Takahiro Tsuchiya
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
Abstract:: In recent years, the United States and China have entered into a new conflict over advanced science and its application in emerging technologies. China places particular emphasis on artificial intelligence (AI), blockchains, quantum information science, and neuroscience applications as emerging technologies that could impact security in the future. In the following paragraphs, I will take blockchain technology as an example and discuss how China, which places importance on this technology, aims for "technological hegemony" through dual use (both military and civilian use).
Topic:: Artificial Intelligence, Blockchain, and Emerging Technology
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

1598. Iranian Politics Leading Up to the 2021 Presidential Elections and US Influences

Author:: Mari Nukii
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
Abstract:: It is no exaggeration to say that Iran has been one of victims most suffered from the Trump administration's 'America First' policy in the four years since President Trump's inauguration in 2017. The main cause was Trump's unilateral declaration on May 8, 2018 to withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and resume sanctions against Iran. Furthermore, in May 2019, the United States imposed a total embargo on Iranian oil and sent the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln and bomber units to the Middle East, heightening the risk of military conflict between the two countries.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, Elections, and JCPOA
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

1599. Handling "Value" in the US-China Conflict

Author:: Naoko Funatsu
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
Abstract:: The escalating confrontation between the United States and China has been one of the most important issues in American foreign policy in recent years. The weight of US foreign policy toward China has increased as China's presence in the international community has grown. This is due to China's remarkable economic growth, and many countries around the world sought to incorporate the booming Chinese economy into the international economy to promote their own economic growth; the United States had been no exception. As globalization and China's economy continued to grow, however, the trade imbalance between the US and China expanded, and the trade deficit with China became an issue in the US. In the US presidential election of November 2016, Republican candidate Donald J. Trump made correcting the trade deficit with China a policy priority and was elected. When the administration took office in January 2017, it was marked by a discourse based on economic nationalism, one of the characteristics of a Trump administration committed to putting "America first".
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Globalization, Bilateral Relations, Economy, and Trade
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

1600. The New Taiwan Clause: Taiwan and the Security of Japan

Author:: Tetsuo Kotani
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
Abstract:: A summit meeting between Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga and President Joe Biden was held on April 16, 2021, followed by a joint statement. In the statement, for the first time in the 52 years since 1969, the importance of the security of the Taiwan Strait was emphasized by the leaders of Japan and the United States, confirming that both countries are increasingly concerned about the current situation regarding Taiwan. According to a poll conducted by Nikkei Inc. after the summit, 50% of the Japanese public considered the U.S.-Japan summit itself as "positive" (32% "negative"), and 74% of the respondents "agreed" that Japan should be involved in stabilizing the Taiwan Strait, while only 13% "disagreed." These figures were received with some surprise by experts. This paper will analyze these changes in Japan's perception of Taiwan, and then examine the issues that Japan should address in the future following the recent Japan-U.S. joint statement.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Japan, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

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