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601. NATO and strategic competition: Time for Allies to step up

Author:
Mark Webber
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
2022 was marked by the publication of a string of high-level strategy documents by the NATO allies: the National Defense Strategy (NDS) in the United States, the National Strategic Review in France, the Dutch Defense White Paper, and the Danish Foreign and Security Policy Strategy. In January 2023, Estonia updated its National Security Concept. A refresh of the UK’s 2021 Integrated Review is due in the spring of 2023. Germany’s first post-Cold War National Security Strategy is expected to be published around the same time. These documents all share a preoccupation with what NATO’s own 2022 Strategic Concept has referred to as “rising strategic competition” in a “contested and unpredictable” world.1 This strategic convergence indicates a strengthening of solidarity in view of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and Chinese efforts to extend its global footprint. How NATO responds over the long haul will be shaped by American priorities. The United States, former German Defense Minister, Christine Lambrecht, noted in January 2023, “may not be able to guarantee the defense of Europe to the extent that it used to” as it turned its attention to the Indo-Pacific region. “[W]e Europeans”, would in consequence, need to do more to generate “military strength”.2 This is not a fringe opinion. German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, and French President, Emmanuel Macron, have argued essentially the same.3 Actions, of course, speak louder than words. This Policy Brief shows that European commitment is still lagging. In view of the urgency of the challenge, greater effort and prioritization are required.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Alliance, Strategic Competition, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

602. The Iran nuclear deal: consequences of moribund diplomacy

Author:
Mark Fitzpatrick
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
On 4 November 2022, United States President Joe Biden privately remarked that the 2015 Iran nuclear accord known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), was “dead”, but that the US would not formally say so.1 US working- level officials insist a return to the deal remains possible, but efforts to revive it are increasingly fraught. For months, Iran’s leaders have appeared uninterested in complying with the deal, instead conditioning their country’s return on unrealistic demands that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) cease investigation into signs of Iran’s past nuclear weapons development. Since mid-September 2022, Western attention has been distracted by other aspects of Tehran’s foreign and domestic policy, including the regime’s brutal crackdown of domestic protests against female veiling rules, its complicity in Russian drone attacks in Ukraine, and its dubious detention of US and European citizens. With political room for a diplomatic solution rapidly evaporating, and Iran’s “breakout period” for producing weapons- grade highly enriched uranium (HEU) shortened to a few days, NATO member states must anticipate that states like Israel could opt for a kinetic “Plan B” solution to Iran’s nuclear programme, with potential negative spill-over. With escalation likely before a UN ban on missile trade with Iran expires in October 2023, concerned states should intensify pursuit of peaceful alternatives.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Deterrence, JCPOA, and Nuclear Energy
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

603. The Economic Impact of China PNTR Repeal

Author:
David Schockenhoff and Michael Kleiman
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
As scepticism towards China is rising among policymakers, businesses grow more concerned about the potential economic fallout from an escalation in US-China tariff policy. Oxford Economics was commissioned by the US-China Business Council (USCBC) to help inform the policymaking process by examining two scenarios that could materialize if China’s Permanent Normalized Trade Relations (PNTR) status was revoked – including the increase of US tariffs on Chinese goods to column 2 rates as well as a Chinese retaliation imposing pre-WTO rates on US goods. Our analysis incorporates state-of-the art trade and economic models, including the Oxford Economics GEM, and finds that the US could lose up to $1.9trn in output over the five-year period following a China PNTR repeal. This is our third study for USCBC after examining the impact of the US-China relationship and associated scenarios in two previous reports (2017 and 2021).
Topic:
Economics, Politics, Bilateral Relations, Regulation, Tariffs, Trade, Supply Chains, Policymaking, Decoupling, and Goods and Services
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

604. Chipping Away: Assessing and addressing the labor market gap facing the US semiconductor industry

Author:
Dan Martin and Hamilton Galloway
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Thanks in large part to enactment of the landmark 2022 CHIPS and Science Act, a significant share of expected new chip manufacturing capacity and R&D is expected to be located in the US. We project the semiconductor industry’s US-based workforce will grow by nearly 115,000 jobs by 2030, from approximately 345,000 jobs today to approximately 460,000 jobs by the end of the decade. We estimate that roughly 67,000, or 58%, of these new jobs risk going unfilled at current degree completion rates. Of the unfilled jobs: 39% will be technicians, most of whom have two-year degrees or less; 35% will be computer scientists, or engineers with four-year degrees; and 26% will be engineers at the master’s or PhD level. For the US economy as a whole, we estimate that 3.85 million additional jobs in these three technical fields will be created by the end of 2030. Of those, 1.4 million jobs risk going unfilled unless the pipeline for such workers is expanded. To address the skills gap facing the broader economy and the semiconductor industry, we present three core recommendations to strengthen the US technical workforce: Strengthen support for regional partnerships and programs aimed at growing the pipeline for skilled technicians for semiconductor manufacturing and other advanced manufacturing sectors. Grow the domestic STEM pipeline for engineers and computer scientists vital to the semiconductor industry and other sectors that are critical to the future economy. Retain and attract more international advanced degree students within the US economy.
Topic:
Economics, Science and Technology, Regulation, Manufacturing, Labor Market, Workforce, and Semiconductors
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

605. The Comeback of Industrial Policy. The Next Geopolitical Great Game

Author:
Alessandro Gili, Davide Tentori, and Paola Magri
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
Industrial policies are the key element underlying today’s geopolitical scramble and a pillar of national security. Reacting to Western weaknesses and bottlenecks in the global supply chains, highlighted by multiple shocks such as the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and the recent Israel-Hamas war, the US in first place and the EU later have started to introduce new industrial legislation aimed at making up for lost ground with respect to other industrial powerhouses, such as China. Besides being policy tools to accelerate the green and digital transitions, however, the US Inflation Reduction Act and the Net Zero Industry Act, as well as the US and the EU Chips Acts, entail subsidies, local content requirements and export controls targeted at strengthening the domestic industrial base for critical technologies, fostering strategic autonomy and de-risking from excessive foreign dependencies. This race poses risks for the weaponisation of industrial policies and fragmentation of international trade and also potentially jeopardises technological development. How can we strike a balance between economic security and efficiency? Which sectors are the most critical and which ones are the leading global powers pursuing? What will the consequences be for global value chains and international trade? Is it possible to reach an agreement on rules for a new level playing field to prevent economic competition turning into economic warfare?
Topic:
Development, Industrial Policy, National Security, Science and Technology, European Union, Geopolitics, Trade, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and United States of America

606. Improving the contestability of e-commerce in two jurisdictions: the Amazon case

Author:
Fiona Scott Morton
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Antitrust cases against Amazon in the United States reveal that the e-commerce giant has developed algorithms that mimic price protection contracts called MFNs (from most-favoured nations, a term borrowed from international trade), even though the company said publicly that it ended the contracts themselves some years ago. MFNs are well known in antitrust enforcement for their anticompetitive effects: higher prices and less entry. The complaints describe how Amazon demotes merchants from its coveted Buy Box if Amazon finds a lower price on a rival e-commerce site, creating an incentive for merchants to set higher prices on rival sites. The European Union, the Digital Markets Act bans such contracts. This would be a good remedy for the US as well as it would restore competition with minimal harmful side effects. The US complaints describe a different scheme that penalises brands if Amazon must reduce its retail prices to match a rival retailer. The EU may have to pursue this conduct under Article 102 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union that prohibits abuse of dominance. Both the US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and the European Commission have found that Amazon’s policy of tying its own logistics service to Amazon Prime status raises entry barriers to rivals. The European Union remedy redesigns the Buy Box and allows rival logistics services access to consumers. This remedy provides a useful benchmark to consider in designing remedies for the FTC and for California, which is also pursuing an antitrust case against Amazon. In general, both the US and the EU gain from the enforcement actions of the other.
Topic:
Contracts, Digital Markets Act (DMA), Competition, E-Commerce, and Amazon
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

607. Corking Russian Gas: Global Economic and Political Ramifications

Author:
Scott Semet
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Awarm winter in 2022–2023, a purposive decline in consumption that caused the economy to cool, and frantic efforts to attract supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) obscured Europe’s enduring reliance on cheap Russian gas for economic growth. European winters will not always be warm, and there is not enough LNG to replace Russian gas in the short term. Efforts to wean Europe from Russian gas permanently defy economic logic. Should policymakers choose to do so, it would carry costs not only for Europe but also for the United States and the rest of the world.
Topic:
Gas, Economic Growth, Imports, Energy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and United States of America

608. Terrorism and Immigration; A Risk Analysis, 1975–2022

Author:
Alex Nowrasteh
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Terrorism is a hazard to human life and material prosperity that should be addressed in a sensible manner whereby the benefits of actions taken to contain it outweigh the costs. A total of 219 foreign-born terrorists were responsible for 3,046 murders on U.S. soil from 1975 through the end of 2022. The chance of a person perishing in a terrorist attack committed by a foreigner on U.S. soil over the 48-year period studied here is 1 in 4.3 million per year. The hazard posed by foreigners who entered on different visa categories varies considerably. For instance, the annual chance of an American being murdered in a terrorist attack by a refugee is about 1 in 3.3 billion, while the annual chance of being murdered in an attack committed by an illegal immigrant is zero. Looking at this spectrum of risk, any government response to terrorism must consider the wide range of hazards posed by foreign-born terrorists who entered under various visa categories. There were 219 foreign-born terrorists who planned, attempted, or carried out attacks on U.S. soil from 1975 through 2022. Of those, 67 percent were Islamists, 16 percent were foreign nationalists, 6 percent were right-wing extremists, 5 percent were non-Islamic religious terrorists, 4 percent were left-wing extremists, and the rest were separatists, adherents of other or unknown ideologies, or targeted worshippers of specific religions.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Immigration, and Cost-Benefit Analysis
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

609. Pariah or Partner? Reevaluating the U.S.-Saudi Relationship

Author:
Jon Hoffman
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The U.S.-Saudi relationship is stuck. America’s policy toward the kingdom is rooted in flawed rationales and supported by a system of lobbying and influence designed to sustain the status quo. Those policies are proving ineffective at navigating the changing landscape, both in the Middle East and globally, while reaping virtually no benefits for the United States. The longer these fruitless policies persist, the more they will harm U.S. interests. The long-standing rationales for close U.S.-Saudi relations—centered on oil, counterterrorism, and preserving regional stability—are flawed. What Washington needs from the region on those issues is quite limited and simple to achieve. Despite the high costs and dubious benefits of the current approach to Saudi Arabia, there is a growing chorus in Washington to deepen the relationship with Riyadh. New rationales for expanding the relationship include the return of great power competition to the Middle East and the expansion of the Abraham Accords, which are increasingly being linked together as the new lodestar of Middle East policy. These new rationales also do not withstand scrutiny. It is time for a fundamental reevaluation of the U.S.-Saudi relationship. The United States should approach Saudi Arabia as it would any other state that does not share our interests or our values: from arm’s length.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Political stability, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Middle East, Saudi Arabia, North America, and United States of America

610. Trade and Investment Are Not a Balancing Act

Author:
Norbert Michel
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The trade deficit is the amount by which the value of a country’s imports exceeds the value of its exports during a given period, such as one calendar year or quarter. It is a commonly misunderstood concept that inspires harmful economic policies, such as proposals that a country “balance” its imports and exports by taxing international capital flows. Supporters of this policy hope to shrink the trade deficit (i.e., to balance imports and exports) by taxing the capital surplus that goes along with a trade deficit in the balance-of-payments framework. In the United States, senators Tammy Baldwin (D‑WI) and Josh Hawley (R‑MO) authored a 2019 bill to do this and, though it died in the Senate Banking Committee, similar legislation may appear in the future. This kind of policy is highly flawed on theoretical, empirical, and practical grounds. For starters, trade deficits and capital surpluses are merely part of a national accounting system that includes multiple arbitrarily assigned categories. In fact, even the concept of balancing in the national accounting system is not as straightforward as supporters of balancing trade flows suggest. The evidence demonstrates that there is no clear negative relationship between a trade imbalance and a country’s optimal economic performance, especially regarding employment in manufacturing, which is a common concern among politicians. At best, taxing international capital flows would fail to change the incentives that drive US consumers’ high demand for imports. At worst, it would cause a global economic recession that impoverishes millions of people and makes Americans poorer.
Topic:
Economics, Investment, Trade, and Deficit
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

611. Taiwan’s Urgent Need for Asymmetric Defense

Author:
Eric Gomez
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Amid deteriorating US-China relations, senior US officials have begun suggesting that a Chinese attack against Taiwan could happen soon. The conventional wisdom in Washington is that this urgent threat requires an urgent response, but too much attention has focused on the US-China military balance and too little on Taiwan’s military efforts. Taiwan’s future would likely be determined in the opening days, if not hours, of a conflict. Taiwan must prevail in two critical military operations: surviving China’s conventional bombardment and preventing the first wave of amphibious ground forces from establishing a beachhead. Taiwan would be fighting these two operations alone, but Taiwan’s military does not have the right mix of equipment, manpower, and strategy to mount an effective defense, despite the fact that the results of these operations could prove decisive for the rest of the conflict. US policymakers must press Taipei to focus on improving Taiwan’s ability to execute this narrow set of military missions and to reorient its overall strategy to one of asymmetric defense to counter Chinese advantages. If Taiwan does not or cannot do so, it is unlikely that any amount of potential US assistance or intervention could salvage the island’s position in the event of a conflict. Because these shortfalls are so important, Washington should create a sense of urgency in Taipei through security assistance measures such as conditional arms sales and limited joint training. The United States should also take care not to back Beijing into a corner where it concludes that using force is its only viable option to achieve unification with Taiwan. American assurances to China are a tough sell given Washington’s bipartisan hawkishness on China, but keeping time on Taiwan’s side is essential for the success of Taipei’s self-defense transformation.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Asymmetric Relations
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

612. Quantile Regression with an Endogenous Misclassified Binary Regressor

Author:
Carlos Lamarche
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
Recent work on the conditional mean model offers the possibility of addressing misreporting of participation in social programs, which is common and has increased in all major surveys. However, researchers who employ quantile regression continue to encounter challenges in terms of estimation and statistical inference. In this work, we propose a simple two-step estimator for a quantile regression model with endogenous misreporting. The identification of the model uses a parametric first stage and information related to participation and misreporting. We show that the estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal. We also establish that a bootstrap procedure is asymptotically valid for approximating the distribution of the estimator. Simulation studies show the small sample behavior of the estimator in comparison with other methods, including a new three-step estimator. Finally, we illustrate the novel approach using U.S. survey data to estimate the intergenerational effect of mother’s participation on welfare on daughter’s adult income.
Topic:
Survey, Quantile Regression, Endogenous Treatments, Misclassification, and Social Programs
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

613. The Conundrum of the Essential Security Exception: Can the WTO resolve the GATT Article XXI crisis and save the dispute settlement mechanism?

Author:
Stephen Kho, Yujin McNamara, Sarah Kirwin, and Brooke Davies
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:
The World Trade Organization (WTO) is in an existential crisis. Ever since the United States began blocking the appointment of new Appellate Body members, the WTO’s dispute settlement mechanism began slowly breaking down. As the Appellate Body lost its ability to function, WTO Members realized that they were empowered to appeal disputes they had lost at the panel level “into the void,” thereby preventing resolution. This, in turn, resulted in the filing of fewer disputes as Members instead started taking trade matters into their own hands. At the same time, Members began to more freely ignore their WTO obligations, knowing that if challenged, they could simply appeal adverse decisions “into the void” while still boasting their compliance with WTO rules because the dispute settlement mechanism would not have rendered a final decision based on a procedural technicality. Some WTO Members are now actively attempting to resuscitate the faltering dispute settlement system. Over the past year, efforts to negotiate a solution to the Appellate Body impasse have intensified between the United States and other Members, so much so that WTO Director- General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala recently suggested that dispute settlement reform could be one of the main “outcomes” of the upcoming 13th WTO Ministerial Conference.2 However, this is easier said than done. Despite recent progress in the reform discussions, the United States has seen to it that a key sticking point in the negotiations has become the justiciability of Article XXI(b) of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade of 1994 (GATT).3 Article XXI(b) is an exception that allows WTO Members to legally deviate from their trade obligations when necessary for the protection of their “essential security interests”.4 As with the Appellate Body impasse, the United States stands largely alone in taking a hard- line position that Article XXI(b) must be wholly self-judging and thus non-justiciable under the WTO. In the view of the United States, Members may unilaterally determine for themselves whether their actions are taken for purposes of their essential security interests, or, in other words, whether they self-qualify to use the Article XXI(b) exception to justify what would otherwise be a WTO violation.5
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, National Security, WTO, and Disputes
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

614. The Anti-Circumvention Instrument: Another Roadblock on the Investment Development Path?

Author:
Weihuan Zhou and Victor Crochet
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:
Companies from emerging economies, and China in particular, have started internationalizing their production operations. In doing so, they are following the same path as that taken by American, European and East Asian corporations before them, by setting up factories in third countries to serve their export markets from closer locations and produce more efficiently. Thus, it is no longer only developed countries’ multinationals which are moving their operations to developing countries, but emerging market companies that are increasingly engaging in production abroad. This phenomenon is having beneficial effects in countries where these companies invest and might help them start their own industrialization process. Yet, it has attracted the ire of developed countries, in particular the European Union. They are now targeting these downstream production plants abroad by using the so-called anti-circumvention instrument, resulting in trade defence duties imposed on the parent companies being extended to their foreign subsidiaries. This application of the anti-circumvention instrument departs from its historic rationale and might hinder the development of countries in need of foreign investment. Therefore, affected governments should consider taking international legal action to bring developed countries to the negotiating table to put a halt to this abuse of the anti-circumvention instrument.
Topic:
Development, Industrial Policy, Investment, Trade, Internationalization, Production, Emerging Economies, and Anti-Circumvention Instrument
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Global Focus, and United States of America

615. Strengthening South Korean Value Diplomacy for U.S.-South Korean Normative Alignment

Author:
Sook Jong Lee
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
The foreign policy of any state is formulated by calculating national interest and normative ideals. If national interest is based on tangible economic and security gains, normative ideals are often understood as universal and transformative values. However, this distinction is often blurred in reality, as normative choices are made in the context of long-term national interest. Furthermore, a state’s normative alignment can change due to ideologically different new governments or contentious domestic challenges. The worst-case scenario occurs when a strong state withdraws from leadership of a normative coalition of like-minded states. Like-minded states tend to disperse when they lose their leader; the decline of the Community of Democracies after the United States’s neglect is such a case. States fail to pursue consistent foreign policy because normative politics are in flux domestically and internationally. Despite this complexity, a strong power can exercise normative foreign policy more effectively than a weaker power, as it can employ both hard and soft power. The United States played such an enforcement role during the post–Cold War unipolar world. A newly emerging strong state, such as China, can challenge an existing norm or establish a new norm. What about middle powers? Lacking unilaterally exercisable power, middle powers frequently champion multilateral rules and norms that can protect their interests from great power coercion. Professor Andrew Cooper characterizes a middle power as normatively more virtuous and trustworthy in the global order and describes its preferred diplomacy as pursuing multilateral solutions to international problems, embracing compromise positions in international disputes, and adopting the notions of “good international citizenship” (Cooper et al. 1993, 116). The government of former South Korean President Lee Myung-bak pursued middle powermanship under the Global Korea slogan, emphasized value-based international contributions by expanding foreign aid, and hosted the Group of Twenty (G20) and other global meetings. Now, the Yoon Suk Yeol government has scaled up its middle-power ambitions to those of being a global pivotal state by highlighting South Korea’s international contributions and values-based diplomacy (Yoon 2022a). Like the Lee government, the Yoon government is building its proactive multilateral diplomacy while deepening its long-standing alliance with the United States. But the U.S.-China relationship has changed significantly between the Lee and Yoon governments: geopolitical competition between the United States and China has intensified during the intervening fifteen years, expanding beyond the economic and military spheres to include technology and ideology. Under U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping, an ideological narrative dividing the world between democracies and autocracies has set in. The Russian war in Ukraine has caused Western European countries to merge democratic unity and collective security. In Northeast Asia, North Korea’s nuclear capabilities now threaten not only South Korea but also the faraway United States. Facing all these high-risk challenges, the Yoon government has tightened military and economic ties with the United States. The two countries’ shared democratic values and liberal norms have emerged as a crucial component of deepening bilateral ties. This normative alignment has invited criticism from Beijing, but the Yoon government has so far not rolled back its advocacy for those values—although it has carefully dubbed them as “universal values” rather than liberal or democratic values. The national confidence gained by globally successful popular Korean culture and deteriorating public opinion against China have helped fuel this value assertiveness.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Human Rights, Norms, and Freedom
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, and United States of America

616. 2023 EAI Public Opinion Poll on the International Affairs: ① The US and the ROK-US Relations

Author:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
In celebration of the 70th Anniversary of the ROK-US alliance, East Asia Institute (EAI) conducted a public opinion poll to assess the Korean people`s perceptions of the United States and the ROK-US alliance. EAI presents the survey results in chart form in the `EAI Public Opinion Briefing.` While many respondents acknowledged the historical benefits of the ROK-US alliance to Korea`s development in the areas of security, economy, and politics over the past 70 years, they expressed reserved outlooks on the current state and future progress of the alliance. Furthermore, the survey results revealed complex viewpoints regarding the role and scope of the alliance, South Korea`s contribution to it, and the extended deterrence provided by the United States.
Topic:
International Affairs, Bilateral Relations, Public Opinion, and Polls
Political Geography:
South Korea, North America, and United States of America

617. The New Domestic Politics of U.S.-China Relations

Author:
Evan S. Medeiros
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
The U.S.-China relationship has come to largely define geopolitics in the 21st century, and the bilateral relationship is today often conceived primarily in terms of geopolitical tensions and great power jockeying on the global stage. However, there is more to U.S.-China strategic competition than the geopolitical level. In particular, the influence of domestic political dynamics in both countries is a widely underappreciated factor driving both U.S. and Chinese foreign policy decision-making, including vis-à-vis each other. What are these shifting domestic forces in both countries that are most influencing the relationship, in what ways, and to what effect? In this groundbreaking new report, The New Domestic Politics of U.S.-China Relations, Asia Society Policy Institute's Center for China Analysis Senior Fellow for Foreign Policy Evan S. Medeiros conducts an in-depth investigation and analysis of these questions. He finds substantial new dynamics at play in both countries that have had an increasingly negative impact on U.S.-China ties. In the United States, Congressional activism, electoral politics, public opinion, and shifting roles for interest groups are all influencing U.S. debates, policymaking, and actions — governmental and nongovernmental alike. In China, centralization of decision-making processes, constraints on formerly key actors, shifting national-level priorities, and other structural political and personnel changes are today directly and indirectly influencing Chinese perceptions, policies, and behaviors toward the United States.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

618. Military coup in Niger: The legacies of colonialism and the US War on Terror in West Africa

Author:
Christopher Zambakari
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
Niger is nearly 500 000 square miles of landlocked country bordered by no less than seven neighbouring states. It is a country saddled with a history of military interventions. However, most recently, under the leadership of President Mohamed Bazoum, it has been regarded as a ‘model of stability’ and ‘model of democracy’ in a region marred by political instability.1 Bazoum’s election in 2021 and the subsequent peaceful transition of power raised expectations of democratic rule and a renewed commitment to good governance. However, the military coup shattered those prospects and exposed the fragility of democracy in West Africa. In the current political upheaval, the key players include not just the domestic military forces, but also international powers. A legacy of French colonialism and the US Global War on Terror looms large over the region, casting its shadow on a complex narrative.2 However, the militarised ambitions of both regional and global actors prevail in West Africa and Niger again is caught in the crosshairs. As one considers the nuances of the situation, two compelling questions emerge: How has the militarisation of West Africa, explored through the lens of the War on Terror, set the stage for the recent coup in Niger, and what does this upheaval signify for the future of the region?3 Amidst the shifts in power, a closer examination of conflict connections and motivations reveals hidden agendas, geopolitical strategic moves, and the struggle for control in Niger.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Colonialism, War on Terror, Coup, and ECOWAS
Political Geography:
Africa, Niger, and United States of America

619. US land power in the Indo-Pacific: opportunities for the Australian army

Author:
Marcus Schultz
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
The US Army is undergoing its most consequential period of transformation since the end of the Cold War. The re-emergence of great power competition and a deteriorating strategic environment is forcing the US Army to rethink not just its approach to land warfare but also its future role alongside the US Marine Corps in key regions around the globe. In the Indo-Pacific, this doctrinal and structural transformation is informing a new approach to joint exercises and 'no gaps' defence collaboration to deter Chinese aggression. These developments hold important insights for key US allies and partners, including Australia and Japan. Australia’s new unifying strategic approach to national defence and the high degree of convergence this has with US defence strategy offers a timely window of opportunity for the Australian Army to explore the combined use of land power in a heighten threat environment. This work should be mutually reinforcing and constitute part of Australia’s approach to managing risk and threats and balancing its contributions to deterrence. This report aims to provide the Australian defence establishment and military leaders with well-considered options for engaging the US on matters of mutual interest. The report provides an overview of the US Army’s changing force posture and approach to land warfare, followed by a brief analysis of its evolving role as an essential enabler of joint force operations in a maritime environment. The report then explores the US Army’s ‘campaigning’ activities in the region and its efforts to increase allied and partner capacity for high-end military contingencies in all domains. Finally, the report highlights opportunities for the Australian Army to enhance interoperability with US land forces in a deepening US-Australia alliance.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Armed Forces, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Australia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

620. Building whole-of-nation statecraft: how Australia can better leverage subnational diplomacy in the US alliance

Author:
John Coyne, Justin Bassi, Danielle Cave, and Iain MacGillivray
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
Australia and the US are both federations of states in which power is shared constitutionally between the national and subnational levels of government. However, traditionally, one domain that hasn’t been considered a shared power, but rather the constitutionally enshrined responsibility of the national governments, has been international affairs (in the US Constitution through Article I, Section 10 and other clauses and in the Australian Constitution through section 51 (xxix), known as the external affairs power). For this reason, foreign-policy and national-security decision-makers in Washington DC and Canberra have rightly seen themselves as the prime actors in the policymaking that develops and strengthens the US–Australia alliance and all global relationships, with limited power held by subnational governments. However, in our globalised and digital world, constitutional power no longer means that subnational governments have only narrow roles and influence on the international stage. While national governments will continue having primary responsibility for setting foreign policy, subnational governments have offices overseas, sign agreements with foreign governments, and regularly send diplomatic delegations abroad. Recent events, including the Covid-19 pandemic, have highlighted subnational governments’ decisive role in shaping, supporting, adapting to and implementing national and international policy. The pandemic, including post-pandemic trade promotion, demonstrated that the relationships between layers of governments in both federations are essential to national security, resilience, economic prosperity and social cohesion. Subnational governments have vital roles to play in helping to maximise national capability, increase trust in democratic institutions, mitigate security threats and build broader and deeper relationships abroad. At the subnational level in Washington and Canberra, people-to-people, cultural and economic links create the deep connective tissue that maintains relationships, including those vital to the US-Australia alliance, no matter the politics of the day. But that subnational interaction must be consistent with national defence and foreign policy. Australia’s federal system should help facilitate international engagement and incentivise positive engagement while ensuring that the necessary legislative and policy levers exist to require the subnational layer to conduct essential due diligence that prioritises the national interest. In this report, the authors make a series of policy recommendations that will support the development of such a framework.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Alliance, and Statecraft
Political Geography:
Australia, North America, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America