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2. Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates, November 2014
- Author:
- William R. Cline
- Publication Date:
- 11-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- This semiannual review finds that most of the major international currencies, including the US dollar, euro, Japanese yen, UK pound sterling, and Chinese renminbi, remain close to their fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs). The new estimates find this result despite numerous significant exchange rate movements associated with increased volatility in international financial markets at the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2014, and despite a major reduction in the price of oil. The principal cases of exchange rate misalignment continue to be the undervalued currencies of Singapore, Taiwan, and to a lesser extent Sweden and Switzerland, and the overvalued currencies of Turkey, New Zealand, South Africa, and to a lesser extent Australia and Brazil. Even so, the medium-term current account deficit for the United States is already at the outer limit in the FEERs methodology (3 percent of GDP), and if the combination of intensified quantitative easing in Japan and the euro area with the end to quantitative easing in the United States were to cause sizable further appreciation of the dollar, an excessive US imbalance could begin to emerge.
- Topic:
- Economics, Foreign Exchange, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United States, Japan, Turkey, South Africa, Brazil, and New Zealand
3. The Federal Reserve Engages the World (1970–2000): An Insider's Narrative of the Transition to Managed Floating and Financial Turbulence
- Author:
- Edwin M. Truman
- Publication Date:
- 08-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- This paper traces the evolution of the Federal Reserve and its engagement with the global economy over the last three decades of the 20th century: 1970 to 2000. The paper examines the Federal Reserve's role in international economic and financial policy and analysis covering four areas: the emergence and taming of the great inflation, developments in US external accounts, foreign exchange analysis and activities, and external financial crises. It concludes that during this period the US central bank emerged to become the closest the world has to a global central bank.
- Topic:
- Economics, Foreign Exchange, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States
4. New Frontiers: U.S. Students Pursuing Degrees Abroad
- Author:
- Rajika Bhandari, Raisa Belyavina, and Jing Li
- Publication Date:
- 05-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute of International Education (IIE)
- Abstract:
- In an increasingly globalized world, investing in international education is a growing priority for individuals and countries alike. Students seek out experiences that will shape their careers while nations vie for the world's most talented minds to contribute to research, innovation and economic growth. International education and intercultural competencies are increasingly more valued by employers ranging from multinational corporations to the public sector. Recognizing the need for connecting with global peers, students around the world are more mobile today than ever before. They also have opportunities to participate in a wide array of educational activities abroad, ranging from brief educational study tours to obtaining full degrees overseas that can span a student's entire higher education career.
- Topic:
- Education, Foreign Exchange, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- United States
5. U.S. Students in China: Meeting the Goals of the 100,000 Strong Initiative
- Author:
- Raisa Belyavina
- Publication Date:
- 01-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute of International Education (IIE)
- Abstract:
- The 100,000 Strong Initiative, announced in November 2009 by President Obama, aims to increase to 100,000 the cumulative number of Americans studying in China over a four - year period. While the number of American students studying abroad for credit in Chin a has increased nearly fivefold in the last decade, the types of educational experiences undertaken by American students going abroad have changed as well. More than ever before, American students are going abroad on shorter, not - for - credit programs such a s study tours, internships, and volunteering abroad. The 100,000 Strong Initiative encourages all types of educational experiences for students in U.S. high schools, colleges, and universities.
- Topic:
- Education, Foreign Exchange, International Cooperation, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, America, and Israel
6. Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates, November 2013
- Author:
- William R. Cline
- Publication Date:
- 11-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Since the previous estimates of fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs) in this series in May (Cline 2013), numerous exchange rates have moved substantially in response to the announcement in late May that the US Federal Reserve would likely begin to "taper" its quantitative easing program of large-scale asset purchases. The new estimates here again take as their point of departure the medium-term current account projections of the most recent World Economic Outlook (WEO) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF 2013b). However, because of a seeming inertia in the Fund's projections despite large exchange rate moves, this round of calculations pays special attention to compiling alternative estimates for economies with large changes in exchange rates.
- Topic:
- Economics, Foreign Exchange, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- United States
7. Stabilizing Properties of Flexible Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Global Financial Crisis
- Author:
- Joseph E. Gagnon
- Publication Date:
- 11-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- There is a long-standing debate among economists and policymakers on the benefits of flexible versus fixed exchange rates (Klein and Shambaugh 2010). In principle, flexible exchange rates allow a country's central bank to focus on stabilizing economic growth and inflation, which are the ultimate goals of monetary policy. However, some argue that in practice central banks often do not use their powers wisely and it may be better to restrict their freedom by requiring them to peg their currency to that of an important trading partner. Others note that flexible exchange rates are far more volatile than fundamental factors can explain (Flood and Rose 1995), raising the possibility that they may introduce wasteful cross-sectoral fluctuations in economic activity. One common viewpoint is that flexible exchange rates may be fine for large countries but that the smallest countries are better off with fixed exchange rates (Åslund 2010).
- Topic:
- Economics, Foreign Exchange, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, and United Kingdom
8. Projecting China's Current Account Surplus
- Author:
- William R. Cline
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- For several years China has run persistent current account surpluses that have been widely seen as the most serious single source of global imbalances on the surplus side, and mirrored by persistent systemically large US current account deficits on the other side. In recent years, however, both imbalances have shown moderation (figure 1). China's surpluses have posed questions of international policy rules, because they have reflected in part an unwillingness to allow the exchange rate to appreciate sufficiently to act as an effective equilibrating mechanism. Exchange rate intervention resulted in a massive buildup of international reserves, which rose from $615 billion at the end of 2004 to $3.2 trillion at the end of 2011 (IMF 2012a).
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, Foreign Exchange, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Israel
9. Is a Benign Dollar Policy Wise?
- Author:
- William Poole
- Publication Date:
- 06-2010
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Cato Journal
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Officially, the United States has a strong-dollar policy, whatever that is supposed to mean. In practice, what we see is a benign dollar policy, by which I mean that the United States is very unlikely to take any action to attempt to affect the value of the dollar on the foreign exchanges that it would not take for other reasons. My title asks the question "Is a Benign Dollar Policy Wise?" My answer is a resounding "yes."
- Topic:
- Foreign Exchange
- Political Geography:
- United States
10. The GCC Monetary Union: Choice of Exchange Rate Regime
- Author:
- Mohsin S. Khan
- Publication Date:
- 04-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- The creation of a monetary union has been the primary objective of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members since the early 1980s. Significant progress has already been made in regional economic integration: The GCC countries have largely unrestricted intraregional mobility of goods, labor, and capital; regulation of the banking sector is being harmonized; and in 2008 the countries established a common market. Further, most of the convergence criteria established for entry into a monetary union have already been achieved. In establishing a monetary union, however, the GCC countries must decide on the exchange rate regime for the single currency. The countries' use of a US dollar peg as an external anchor for monetary policy has so far served them well, but rising inflation and differing economic cycles from the United States in recent years have raised the question of whether the dollar peg remains the best policy.
- Topic:
- Economics, Foreign Exchange, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- United States
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