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2. Democratic Aspirations and Destabilizing Outcomes in Afghanistan
- Author:
- Norah Niland
- Publication Date:
- 11-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
- Abstract:
- The United States and its allies, in control of Afghanistan since October 2001, failed to support the development of an inclusive, legitimate and accountable political system. This paper examines how the imposition of an inappropriate model of democracy, the prioritization of American interests over those of Afghans, and a pattern of expedient political decisions have contributed to the destabilization of the country. The democracy and state-building model imposed on Afghanistan was stymied from the outset by critical foundational flaws. These include the return to power of discredited warlords reviled by most Afghans, the marginalization of particular groups including the remnants of the Taliban movement, and the concentration of power in an executive Presidency at the expense of a weak parliamentary structure. In 2014, along with the drawdown of US and NATO troops, Afghanistan's disputed election saga ended in a no-victor deal that effectively discarded the (as yet unknown) results of the ballot box. Once again, Washington politics reinforced the grip of a warlord-dominated elite on the machinery of the state and exposed the hollowness of the US-led and UN-supported state building project.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Corruption, Democratization, and Fragile/Failed State
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and United States
3. Compounding Uncertainty in Afghanistan: Economic Consequences of Delay in Signing the Bilateral Security Agreement
- Author:
- Casey Garret Johnson, William A. Byrd, and Sanaullah Tasal
- Publication Date:
- 02-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The still unsigned Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) between Afghanistan and the United States provides the legal basis for continuing U.S. military presence in Afghanistan. In addition to its substantive importance, the BSA is also a confidence-building mechanism. The delay in putting it in place is compounding uncertainty and further diminishing economic confidence during Afghanistan's already challenging and uncertain transition. Afghans' responses include, among others, hedging behavior (legal and illegal), personal decisions on whether to come back to or stay in Afghanistan, delays in investments, incipient job losses, declining demand for goods and services and real estate prices, and farmers planting more opium poppy.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Democratization, Development, Treaties and Agreements, Insurgency, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, and Asia
4. PakVotes: A Social Media Experiment in Elections Monitoring
- Author:
- Nadia Naviwala
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- PakVotes, a pilot project supported by the U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP), used social media platforms and a network of reporters located in areas outside of major cities in Pakistan to track violence during the 2013 elections. The project offers lessons that could guide future efforts to use social media to record and publicize conflicts and the use of violence during elections and other major events. The hashtag #PakVotes trended for several days around elections, serving as a popular alternative news source to the mainstream media, which was not as diverse in its geographic coverage, sources or story types.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Democratization, Non-Governmental Organization, Science and Technology, and Mass Media
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, United States, and South Asia
5. Thinking about Intelligence Within, Without, and Beyond the State
- Author:
- Peter Gill
- Publication Date:
- 07-2014
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Abstract:
- The reform or 'democratization' of intelligence has been studied in many countries essentially as a process of transition from authoritarian or 'counterintelligence' states to liberal democratic regimes in which security and intelligence agencies are subject to (more or less) democratic control and oversight. These studies have contributed to the growth in comparative studies of intelligence but have often ignored some key issues, including the conditions for the very existence of 'state' intelligence, the continuing significance of parallel non-state intelligence entities and the involvement of an increasing number of corporate actors in intelligence activities. This chapter examines intelligence as it works within and between different 'sectors' and the implications for democratization. Intelligence is a sub-set of 'surveillance', a ubiquitous social activity, and can be defined as: 'mainly secret activities – targeting, collection, analysis, dissemination and action – intended to enhance security and/or maintain power relative to competitors by forewarning of threats and opportunities.' A central element of this definition – as with surveillance more generally - is the link between information/knowledge and action/power (or, 'intelligence' and 'policy') where the objective of the process is security and it will be subject to resistance. Intelligence is exercised at various social 'levels' from the transnational to the personal: even individuals deploy information gathering in the face of uncertainty in order to assess threats etc.
- Topic:
- Cold War and Democratization
- Political Geography:
- United States
6. The US and the Gulf States: Uncertain Partners in a Changing Region
- Author:
- Richard LeBaron
- Publication Date:
- 02-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Two important issues are testing relations between the United States and its allies in the Gulf: democratic transitions in the Arab world and regional security. Their outcome will either strengthen or disrupt what has been a long-term partnership. The United States and its Gulf allies are well into their second year of reacting to, and attempting to influence, the rapid political change in the Middle East and North Africa, but their efforts are informed by differing motivations. Meanwhile the looming threat of Iran attaining nuclear weapons has brought greater urgency to efforts to enhance Gulf security, but also some disquiet in the Gulf about any possible US deal with Iran that would serve global non-proliferation interests but threaten their vital regional security interests.
- Topic:
- Democratization, International Security, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, North Africa, and North America
7. The Political Kaleidoscope Turns Again in Crisis-Challenged Iran: 2013 Elections
- Author:
- Barbara Slavin and Yasmin Alem
- Publication Date:
- 05-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Iran has never had what the West would regard as free, fair, and competitive elections. Some would point to the brief periods following the 1906 Constitutional Revolution and between the end of World War II and 1953, when a CIA-backed coup re-installed Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, as possible exceptions to this rule. The upcoming presidential elections this June will be no such exception, with candidates restricted to eight proven loyalists to the regime. Nevertheless, the vote will be an important barometer of the stability and durability of an embattled regime that is increasingly unpopular domestically and isolated internationally. The elections will also produce a new turn of the kaleidoscope within Iran's shrinking political elite, as existing factions break apart and regroup. The next president is likely to be more moderate in tone, if not in policy, and more competent and less divisive than the outgoing Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. This could have important implications not just for the country's domestic course but for Iran's confrontation with the United States and the international community over the nuclear question.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Democratization, Islam, Nuclear Weapons, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- United States and Middle East
8. US and EU: Lack of Strategic Vision, Frustrated Efforts Toward the Arab Transitions
- Author:
- Amy Hawthorne and Danya Greenfield
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The United States and Europe have yet to show the requisite political will or to develop sustainable strategies to help Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, and Yemen in their democratic transitions more than two years after a wave of popular revolutions toppled decades-old autocracies. To be sure, deepening political, economic, and security challenges in these countries from June 2012 to August 2013, the period analyzed in this report, complicated efforts to provide support. Yet the United States and the European Union (EU) missed important opportunities to capitalize on openings where they existed or to send consistent and sustained diplomatic messages where needed. Faced with the vast amounts of cash the Gulf countries could provide rapidly to the transition countries, especially to Egypt, some in Washington and Brussels wondered if the United States and the EU even had much to offer. In the past year, fatigue and frustration more than energy and hope have characterized US and European engagement with these countries.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Democratization, and Social Movement
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Egypt, and Tunisia
9. Virtuality, Perception and Reality in Myanmar's Democratic Reform
- Author:
- Victoria Christensen
- Publication Date:
- 08-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- Since the summer of 2011, the country of Myanmar has been experiencing rapid democratic reform. Headlines lauding these positive changes have become common-place in the international media. However, experts and academics who have been involved in the decade-long campaign to bring peace and democracy to Myanmar remain divided over how sincere these changes are. Some accuse the Government of carrying out “window-dressing” reforms to please the Western governments and enable the lifting of sanctions. They argue that the Government has a vested interest in maintaining the reins of power and that there is no incentive to make true democratic reforms. During a speech in Oslo in June 2012, Aung San Suu Kyi, the Myanmarese Pro-democracy leader described the recent reforms as positive but warned against blind faith in the process and pointed out the main challenges that remain unresolved – namely the ethnic issues and the ongoing imprisonment of political prisoners.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Human Rights, Political Economy, Governance, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Geneva, United States, China, Tehran, Korea, and Southeast Asia
10. Claims to Legitimacy Matter: Why Sanctions Fail to Instigate Democratization in Authoritarian Regimes
- Author:
- Christian von Soest and Julia Grauvogel
- Publication Date:
- 10-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- International sanctions have been one of the most commonly used tools of Western foreign policy in the post‐Cold War era to instigate democratization globally. However, despite long‐term external pressure through sanctions imposed by the European Union, the United States and/or the United Nations, nondemocratic rule in cases such as Belarus, Cuba, Eritrea, Iran, North Korea and Syria has proven to be extremely persistent. In this paper, we analyze a new global dataset on sanctions from 1990 to 2011 and assess which international and domestic factors account for the persistence of nondemocratic rule in targeted regimes. The results of a fuzzy set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) of 120 episodes of sanctions provide new insights for the research on both sanctions and authoritarian regimes. Most significantly, sanctions strengthen nondemocratic rule if the regime manages to incorporate their existence into its legitimation strategy. Such a “rally‐round‐the‐flag” effect occurs most often in cases where comprehensive sanctions targeting the entire population are imposed on regimes that enjoy strong claims to legitimacy and have only limited linkages to the sanction sender.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Democratization, Governance, and Sanctions
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, North Korea, United Nations, and Syria