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  • Author: Alice Gambarin, Osman Ismail
  • Publication Date: 06-2020
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Oxford Economics
  • Abstract: This report explores the short-term effects of Covid-19 on the financial sustainability of the creative industries in the UK. Along with the tourism sector, Creative Industries (CIs) are among the most affected by the current Covid-19 crisis. Creative workers, one of the more vulnerable sectors of the workforce, are already seeing devastating impacts on their income, not only in turnover terms, but also in their charitable contributions and sponsorship. Leaving behind the more fragile part of the sector could cause irreparable socio-economic damage. We find that the Creative Industries are projecting a combined £77bn turnover loss over the course of 2020 compared to 2019 (-31%). This is expected to translate into a GVA shortfall of £29bn in 2020 compared to 2019 (-26%), over half of which is in London. In 2020, CIs are projecting a 122,000 drop in employment among employees (despite the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme - JRS) and a further 287,000 job losses among self employed workers, compared to 2019 levels. In total, 409,000 CIs jobs are considered at risk, 27% of which are in London and 20% are in the South East.
  • Topic: Economics, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, Socioeconomics
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe
  • Author: Alberto Costa, Jonathan Portes, Lauren McLaren, Marina Fernandez Reino, Tim Bale
  • Publication Date: 06-2020
  • Content Type: Video
  • Institution: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
  • Abstract: Our recent #IsolationInsight virtual event looked at what the UK’s post Brexit immigration regime could and should look like, considering also public opinion on immigration and the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. Speakers: Alberto Costa, Conservative MP for South Leicestershire Professor Jonathan Portes, senior fellow at the UK in a Changing Europe Professor Lauren McLaren, @University of Leicester Marina Fernandez Reino, Migration Observatory Chair: Professor Tim Bale, deputy director at the UK in a Changing Europe
  • Topic: Economics, Migration, Politics, Immigration, Economy, Brexit, COVID-19
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe
  • Author: Ben Chu, Jonathan Portes, Meredith Crowley, Gemma Tetlow, Anand Menon
  • Publication Date: 06-2020
  • Content Type: Video
  • Institution: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
  • Abstract: Our recent #IsolationInsight event discussed the economics of the coronavirus pandemic and the UK’s departure from the EU. Speakers : Ben Chu, economics editor, @The Independent ; Professor Jonathan Portes, senior fellow, The UK in a Changing Europe ; Dr Meredith Crowley, senior fellow, The UK in a Changing Europe ; Dr Gemma Tetlow, chief economist, @Institute for Government ; Chair: Professor Anand Menon, director, The UK in a Changing Europe
  • Topic: Economics, European Union, Brexit, Pandemic, COVID-19
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe
  • Author: Ben Chu, Meredith Crowley, Gemma Tetlow, Thomas Sampson, Anand Menon
  • Publication Date: 10-2020
  • Content Type: Video
  • Institution: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
  • Abstract: At this Isolation Insight webinar, panelists discussed the economics of the Covid-19 pandemic and the UK's exit from the EU, six months after lockdown began and with less than three months left of the transition period. Speakers: Ben Chu, economics editor, The Independent; Meredith Crowley, senior fellow, UK in a Changing Europe; Gemma Tetlow, chief economist, Institute for Government; Thomas Sampson, associate professor, London School of Economics; Chair: Anand Menon, director, UK in a Changing Europe
  • Topic: Economics, European Union, Brexit, Transition, COVID-19
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe
  • Author: Vanessa Alviarez, Keith Head, Thierry Mayer
  • Publication Date: 11-2020
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
  • Abstract: We assess the consequences for consumers in 76 countries of multinational acquisitions in beer and spirits. Outcomes depend on how changes in ownership affect markups versus efficiency. We find that owner fixed effects contribute very little to the performance of brands. On average, foreign ownership tends to raise costs and lower appeal. Using the estimated model, we simulate the consequences of counterfactual national merger regulation. The US beer price index would have been 4-7% higher without divestitures. Up to 30% savings could have been obtained in Latin America by emulating the pro-competition policies of the US and EU.
  • Topic: Economics, International Political Economy, Multinational Corporations
  • Political Geography: United States, United Kingdom, Latin America, Global Focus
  • Author: Ioannis Salavrakos
  • Publication Date: 08-2019
  • Content Type: Journal Article
  • Journal: Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
  • Institution: Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: he paper challenges the view that the fall of France in June 1940 is attributed to military errors of the French High Command and with the brilliant German offense in the Ardennes. The paper highlights that the French security strategy after the end of World War I failed because the country lacked the economic basis to implement its strategy. Thus the paper argues that the French endorsed an internal and external balancing strategy against Germany. The internal balancing strategy was associated with the ability of France to sustain powerful armed forces and obviously this was associated with high defense spending and a strong economy. The second part was associated with external balancing which was associated with the creation of alliances in Eastern Europe in order to block any German expansion. Again this was associated with strong economic relations between France and these states. This strategy was implemented during the 1919-1929 period however after the global economic crisis erupted the deterioration of the French economy made the continuation of this strategy impossible. Thus France was forced to follow a defensive strategy at the military level and the privileged bilateral economic relations with Eastern European countries were abolished and Germany replaced France as the major economic and trading partner of these states.
  • Topic: Economics, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, World War II
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe, France, Germany
  • Author: Tarek A. Hassan, Laurence van Lent, Stephan Hollander, Ahmed Tahoun
  • Publication Date: 01-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
  • Abstract: Using tools from computational linguistics, we construct new measures of the impact of Brexit on listed firms in the United States and around the world: the share of discussions in quarterly earnings conference calls on costs, benefits, and risks associated with the UK’s intention to leave the EU. Using this approach, we identify which firms expect to gain or lose from Brexit and which are most affected by Brexit uncertainty. We then estimate the effects of these different kinds of Brexit exposure on firm-level outcomes. We find that concerns about Brexit-related uncertainty extend far beyond British or even European firms. US and international firms most exposed to Brexit uncertainty have lost a substantial fraction of their market value and have reduced hiring and investment. In addition to Brexit uncertainty (the second moment), we find that international firms overwhelmingly expect negative direct effects of Brexit (the first moment), should it come to pass. Most prominently, firms expect difficulties resulting from regulatory divergence, reduced labor mobility, trade access, and the costs of adjusting their operations post-Brexit. Consistent with the predictions of canonical theory, this negative sentiment is recognized and priced in stock markets but has not yet had significant effects on firm actions.
  • Topic: Economics, Political Economy, Regional Cooperation, Brexit, Global Political Economy, Economic Policy
  • Political Geography: Britain, United States, United Kingdom, Europe, European Union
  • Author: Sarah Hall
  • Publication Date: 06-2019
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Asia Research Institute, University of Nottingham
  • Abstract: London is the largest western financial centre for financial transactions denominated in Renminbi (RMB) and has played an important role in shaping the rapid and recent internationalisation of Chinese finance. This policy brief discusses how to maintain this leading role post-Brexit.
  • Topic: Economics, International Political Economy, Finance, Brexit, Financial Institutions
  • Political Geography: Britain, China, United Kingdom
  • Author: Sarah Hall
  • Publication Date: 06-2019
  • Content Type: Special Report
  • Institution: Asia Research Institute, University of Nottingham
  • Abstract: The competitiveness of London’s financial centre is shaped by the UK’s current adoption of EU regulations. The future development of London’s financial services sector is unknown as Britain’s relationship with Europe changes following the vote to leave the EU in the 2016 referendum. This uncertainty arises because even if Theresa May’s Withdrawal Agreement is adopted, the UK will then have to choose whether to converge, seek equivalence with or diverge from EU regulations for financial services. Research by Professor Sarah Hall (University of Nottingham) argues that the implications of these regulatory decisions will impact London’s financial services sector’s relationship with financial markets globally. Her research focuses on how London’s role as the largest western financial centre for financial transactions denominated in China’s currency, the renminbi, could be adversely affected following changes in the regulatory alignment between the UK and the EU following Brexit.
  • Topic: Economics, International Political Economy, Finance, Financial Institutions
  • Political Geography: Britain, China, United Kingdom
  • Author: Benjamin Barton
  • Publication Date: 06-2019
  • Content Type: Special Report
  • Institution: Asia Research Institute, University of Nottingham
  • Abstract: As China and President Xi Jinping signature foreign policy programme, the BRI has become in a very short space of the time one of the world’s largest and most active international infrastructure development drivers. The BRI is helping, in a significant manner, to meet the increasing demand for infrastructure development and upgrades in emerging markets – a trend that is unlikely to slow anytime time soon, especially given the initiative’s current importance to the Chinese government. For the British government (from here onwards ‘government’), although the UK is unlikely to be a prime destination for BRI projects (for now), the BRI stakes are high. Not only do BRI projects impact the economic wellbeing of a number of countries of strategic importance to the UK, but the government cannot remain passive in the emerging geopolitical context of infrastructure development and financing rivalry. In addition, in light of its relative post-Brexit geopolitical isolation, the government needs to adopt a firm and unequivocal political stance in dealing with its Chinese counterpart should the UK itself become the recipient of BRI projects.
  • Topic: Economics, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, Brexit, Multilateralism, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
  • Political Geography: China, United Kingdom, Asia
  • Author: Anand Menon
  • Publication Date: 10-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
  • Abstract: The Prime Minister has set out a means of escaping the Brexit stalemate, but his new Brexit proposals have, as yet, not managed to overcome the impasse. What, though, would the plan mean for the UK economy? That is the question we seek to answer in what follows. As ever, we have been lucky enough to be able to draw on the skills and expertise of some of the leading experts in the field. The bulk of the work was done by Hanwei Huang, Jonathan Portes and Thomas Sampson, with contributions from Matt Bevington and Jill Rutter. Hanwei and Thomas used the LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance trade model to carry out the modelling. We hope you find the report interesting and informative. Brexit is clearly about more than economics, but the economic impact of leaving the EU nevertheless merits careful scrutiny.
  • Topic: Economics, Politics, European Union, Brexit, Boris Johnson
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe
  • Author: Daniel S. Hamilton
  • Publication Date: 01-2018
  • Content Type: Special Report
  • Institution: Center for Transatlantic Relations
  • Abstract: For decades the partnership between North America and Europe has been a steady anchor in a world of rapid change. Today, however, the transatlantic partnership itself has become unsettled and uncertain. Nowhere is this clearer than in the economic sphere. Voters across the United States and many parts of Europe have grown skeptical of open markets. Concerns about stagnant wages, widening income inequality, and pockets of stubbornly high unemployment have combined with fears of automation, digitization and immigration to swell economic insecurities on each side of the Atlantic. The election of Donald Trump as U.S. president and the decision by British citizens to leave the European Union have only added to transatlantic uncertainties. This state of division and mutual inwardness threatens the prosperity and ultimately the position of North America and Europe in the global economy and the broader global security system. This study charts possible paths by which Americans and Europeans can navigate this strange new world. It describes how the transatlantic economy is being transformed by domestic political uncertainties, the digital revolution, the changing nature of production, and the diffusion of global power and intensified global competition. It takes account of shifting trade relations among the United States, Canada and Mexico through NAFTA, and what Brexit and the rise of non-EU Europe may mean for the European Union and for transatlantic partnership.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, Partnerships, Brexit, Economic Growth, Trump, NAFTA
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe, Canada, North America, Mexico, United States of America, European Union
  • Author: Simon Kyte, David Goodger, Helen McDermott
  • Publication Date: 12-2018
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: Oxford Economics
  • Abstract: A “no-deal” Brexit would cause a 5% drop in UK outbound travel and tourism trips in 2020, because of the stifled economic backdrop and impact of a weaker pound. Ireland and Spain would be the hardest hit from fewer UK visitors. In contrast, the weaker pound could mean that UK tourism inflows are 4% higher in a “no-deal” scenario, provided there is no travel disruption. But lower levels of domestic tourism mean that we would expect UK travel and tourism GDP to be 2% lower than our baseline forecast in 2020.
  • Topic: Diplomacy, Economics, Regional Cooperation, Tourism, European Union, Brexit
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe
  • Author: Pete Collings, Osman Ismail
  • Publication Date: 01-2017
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Oxford Economics
  • Abstract: Oxford Economics were appointed by the Gatwick Growth Board (GGB) to provide an independent assessment of Gatwick Airport's local, regional and national impact. The GGB was established in 2016 to examine the economic and social consequences of Gatwick Airport’s future plans for growth and expansion. The resulting study represents the most detailed assessment to date of Gatwick's economic footprint, and will provide evidence for the GGB's strategic work over the coming year. It finds that Gatwick Airport’s operations and services deliver very significant economic benefits for the UK, with its national GDP contribution reaching £5.3 billion in 2016, equivalent to 0.3% of the UK's total. Some 43 million passenger journeys passed through Gatwick during that year, underlining its position as a key component of national infrastructure. In addition, the report measures the Airport's wider impact, beyond its direct transport benefits to passengers and airlines. At the centre of a complex network of supply chains, Gatwick Airport enables activity throughout the Gatwick Diamond area, and beyond. The salaries sustained by employment at the Gatwick site also provide an invaluable contribution to the local consumer economy. The study also explores the potential for the Airport to deliver an even greater economic contribution in future.
  • Topic: Economics, Tourism, Transportation, Airline Companies
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe
  • Author: Andy Logan, Alice Gambarin
  • Publication Date: 04-2017
  • Content Type: Research Paper
  • Institution: Oxford Economics
  • Abstract: In total, UWE Bristol is estimated to have supported 8,280 jobs in the West of England, or one in every 79 people in employment in the area. Some 59 percent was as a result of the University’s expenditure, with the remainder of jobs stimulated by additional students’ and their visitors’ spending. The University contributed £400.1 million in gross value added to the West of England economy. This is equivalent to 1.3 percent of the local economy. As a result of this activity, in 2014/15, the University, its employees, additional students, and their visitors supported a £88.7million tax contribution to the Exchequer. The University had a major impact on businesses and the local economy through its role in the supply of graduate talent. A significant proportion of the thousands of graduates from the University annually are employed within the city-region, including many of those attracted to study at UWE Bristol from elsewhere.
  • Topic: Economics, Education, Tax Systems, Local, Higher Education, Public Service
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe
  • Author: Philip McCann, Alison McGovern, Thomas Sampson, Evan Davis
  • Publication Date: 11-2017
  • Content Type: Video
  • Institution: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
  • Abstract: Discussion of evidence on implications of alternative scenarios and how the economic consequences might play out over time and across different industries/regions. Speakers: Philip McCann, University of Sheffield Management School Alison McGovern, MP for Wirral South Thomas Sampson, The UK in a Changing Europe Chair: Evan Davis, Newsnight
  • Topic: Economics, Brexit, Trade, Industry
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe
  • Publication Date: 01-2016
  • Content Type: Case Study
  • Institution: Oxford Economics
  • Abstract: Bath Spa University supported over 2,050 jobs in Bath and North East Somerset in 2014/15 – equivalent to one in every 49 jobs in the district. The University itself employs 966 people. This makes it the fifth largest employer in Bath and North East Somerset. It is considerably more than are employed by some of the city’s most famous institutions. In total, the University generated a value-added contribution of £93.9 million to the Bath and North East Somerset economy in 2014/15. This is equivalent to 2.0 percent of the district’s economic output. Of this, the University supported a £51.7 million contribution and the University’s additional students and their visitors the remaining £41.7 million contribution to GDP. In 2014/15, Bath Spa University made a total tax contribution of £21.1 million to the UK Exchequer. This could fund the Royal United Hospital’s and Royal National Hospital for Rheumatic Diseases’ running cost for about a month.
  • Topic: Economics, Education, Labor Issues, Employment, Tax Systems, Higher Education
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe
  • Author: Sandy Brian Hager
  • Publication Date: 01-2016
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for Global Political Economy, University of Sussex
  • Abstract: This paper offers new theoretical and empirical insights to explain the resilience of the U.S. Treasuries market as a safe haven for global investment. Going beyond the standard systemic explanation, the paper highlights the importance of domestic politics in reinforcing the safe haven status of U.S. Treasury securities. In particular, the research shows how a formidable “bond” of interests unites domestic and foreign owners of the public debt and works to sustain U.S. power in global finance. Foreigners who now own roughly half of the U.S. public debt have something to gain from their domestic counterparts. The top one percent of U.S. households that dominate domestic ownership of the U.S. public debt have considerable political clout, thus alleviating foreign concerns about the creditworthiness of the U.S. federal government. Domestic owners of the U.S. public debt, in turn, have something to gain from the seemingly insatiable foreign appetite for U.S. Treasury securities. In supplying the U.S. federal government and U.S. households with cheap credit, foreign investors in U.S. Treasuries help to deflect challenges to the top one percent within the wealth and income hierarchy.
  • Topic: Debt, Economics, International Political Economy, Inequality, Finance
  • Political Geography: United States, United Kingdom
  • Author: Nancy Birdsall
  • Publication Date: 02-2015
  • Content Type: Journal Article
  • Institution: Carnegie Council
  • Abstract: Thomas Piketty's Capital in the Twenty-First Century is a tour de force—a compelling and accessible read that presents an eloquent and convincing warning about the future of capitalism.* Capitalism, Piketty argues, suffers from an inherent tendency to generate an explosive spiral of increasing inequality of wealth and income. This inegalitarian dynamic of capitalism is not due to textbook failures of capitalist markets (for example, natural monopolies) or failures of economic institutions (such as the failure to regulate these monopolies), but to the way capitalism fundamentally works. Unless the spiral is controlled by far more progressive taxation than is now the norm, the political fallout could undermine the viability of the successful “social state” (p. 471) in the advanced economies, putting the democratic state itself at risk.
  • Topic: Economics, Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: United States, United Kingdom, France
  • Publication Date: 06-2015
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Oxford Economics
  • Abstract: In September 2012, Huawei commited to spending £1.3 billion in the UK. Almost three years later, the global information and communications leader is well on its way to doing just that—and with vast social and economic significance. In this report, Oxford Economics explores the contribution of Huawei to the UK economy over the three years 2012-2014, and assesses the company’s recent UK expenditure record over the five years 2013-2017, split equally between investment and procurement.
  • Topic: Economics, Communications, Investment
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe