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2. The day after: The conflicting implications of Brexit
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Britain has effectively left the EU after long and tiresome negotiations. But the implications of Brexit have not transpired completely as the aftershocks may be felt within Britain itself in the form of increased desire for independence in Scotland; and London may fail to establish trade agreements that can compensate for its exit from the EU.
- Topic:
- European Union, Economy, Brexit, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, and Scotland
3. The European Union and Brexit: Analysis from the Perspective of the Visegrad Group of Countries
- Author:
- Adrian Chojan
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
- Institution:
- Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
- Abstract:
- The article aims to analyze Brexit from the perspective of the Visegrad Group countries in the context of the future of the European Union. Addressing this issue is important from the point of view of assessing the role of the EU for the Visegrad countries. The main thesis of the research is that Brexit will not lead to a reform of the EU in the coming years, which is what some of the Visegrad Group countries are trying to do. The article is provocative, because, during the migration crisis, the Visegrad Group was shown as a brake on the European integration process. After Brexit, it was considered that some of EU Member States could follow Great Britain and leave the EU. The article complements the scientific achievements in this field, as it presents the view from the country of Central and Eastern Europe.
- Topic:
- Migration, Regional Cooperation, European Union, Brexit, and Integration
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
4. Fog in Channel? The Impact of Brexit on EU and UK Foreign Affairs
- Author:
- Amelia Hadfield and Nicholas Wright
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Union Institute for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- The UK’s rejection of any institutionalised relationship with the EU in foreign, security and defence policy (FSDP) is arguably the most noteworthy feature of the post-Brexit dispensation. In a stark reversal in early 2020, the British government abandoned pledges made in the 2019 Political Declaration to ‘establish structured consultation and regular thematic dialogues [that] could contribute to the attainment of common objectives’, including on the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) and the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) (1). This gap was intensified by the absence of any reference to foreign affairs in the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) or the Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy (IR) (2). Indeed, the IR essentially ignores the EU, referring only to British ambitions to remain a lead European defence actor, with a focus on multilateral venues (notably the UN and NATO), bilateral relations and ad hoc groupings. In short, an EU-sized hole now exists in British foreign policy thinking. This matters in London and across Europe. While in the EU, the UK exercised significant influence and leadership in FSDP, its EU membership magnifying its global capacities. In leaving, Sir Simon Fraser, formerly permanent under-secretary in the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO), warned that Brexit represented ‘the biggest shock to [the UK’s] method of international influencing and the biggest structural change to our place in the world since the end of World War Two’ (3). From the EU’s perspective, as observed by High Representative Josep Borrell, ‘with Brexit, nothing gets easier and a lot gets more complicated. How much more complicated depends on the choices that both sides will make’ (4). The choices thus far indicate a rejection of ‘old obligations’ (5) and an essentially transactional relationship that will be ‘structurally adversarial for the foreseeable future’ (6). Nonetheless, Brexit also gives both the UK and the EU a once-in-a-generation opportunity to rethink and reconfigure their approaches to foreign affairs and how they navigate a profoundly changed regional context. To understand the scale of this undertaking, we offer an innovative thematic analysis focused on four ‘Rs’: reputation, responsibility, resources and relevance. Each ‘R’ represents a core element of both sides’ respective foreign policies, offering insights into possible international roles and goals. The four ‘Rs’ also help us identify the main risks and opportunities Brexit encompasses, providing a conceptual symmetry as to how the choices of both the EU and UK might align and impact each other.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, European Union, and Brexit
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
5. Europe after the Brits
- Author:
- Andrew Duff
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- European Policy Centre
- Abstract:
- Andrew Duff argues that the loss of the United Kingdom should prompt serious reflection about the constitutional direction of the European Union. The secession of a member state changes the context of European integration. Brexit leaves the EU weaker, smaller and poorer — but it can and should also spur reform. The EU should aim to have major changes in place by 2029, including treaty revision. The reforms should include: (i) a renegotiation of the Brexit deal leading to a new class of affiliate membership; (ii) completion of the constitutional framework for a fiscal union; (iii) a European Parliament fully legitimated by election from transnational lists; and (iv) a ‘European Security Council’ of defence ministers to span the divide between the EU and NATO. The Conference on the Future of Europe may prove to be a useful democratic experiment. But it is not designed to address the important constitutional challenges that the Union faces. Duff therefore proposes creating an expert reflection group to stimulate the full implementation of the Treaty of Lisbon as well as prepare the way for the next Convention which must be called to amend the EU treaties. More immediately, the reflection group should make proposals to settle the controversial matter of how to elect the new President of the European Commission in 2024.
- Topic:
- Politics, Reform, European Union, Brexit, and Institutions
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
6. After Brexit: Could bilateral agreements facilitate the free movement of persons?
- Author:
- Diego Acosta
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- European Policy Centre
- Abstract:
- Some of the millions of EU nationals in the UK and British nationals in the EU are already suffering from Brexit’s drastic curtailment of the right to free movement. How can migration now be governed and facilitated between the two parties? Although an EU-wide agreement with the UK that ensures free movement remains the ideal solution, it is currently unrealistic. This calls for an evaluation of possible alternatives. Bilateral agreements should be explored and examined as a possible alternative to an EU-wide agreement with the UK to facilitate and govern cross-border mobility. Various bilateral free movement agreements across Europe show that their use is not only legal but also habitual. They offer flexibility when it comes to the rights of entry, residency and work, as well as other important rights. And they could also be used as a foundation upon which to build an agreement between the EU as a whole and the UK, if not to facilitate the rebuilding of mutual trust. Migration law expert Diego Acosta makes a further case for Spain being the first possible candidate for a post-Brexit bilateral free movement agreement concluded between an EU member state and the UK. Spain is the most important EU destination for British emigrants, and British migrants residing in Spain constitute the latter’s third-largest non-national population. In turn, the UK is the most important migrant destination for Spanish nationals worldwide, who represent the fifth-largest migrant group from the EU. He offers concrete suggestions as to what a bilateral treaty between Spain and the UK could include. In addition, governments of EU member states that have important reciprocal migration flows with the UK, as well as the UK government, should consider the following recommendations when exploring the possibility of adopting bilateral agreements on migration: The negotiating parties should place the rights and interests of both short-term and long-term British and European nationals residing in each other’s territory at the centre stage. In negotiating a possible treaty, both the respective EU member state (e.g. Spain) and the UK should take the pre-Brexit status quo as the departing point. The status of mobile nationals could be improved beyond that enjoyed by EU citizens pre-Brexit. For example, political rights could be extended beyond the municipal level. Certain categories of individuals (e.g. retirees, young workers) could benefit from special provisions which also depart from the pre-Brexit situation.
- Topic:
- Migration, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Brexit, Diversity, and Mobility
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
7. The Franco-German Rivarly in the Post-Brexit Europe
- Author:
- Cagatay Ozdemir
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Uluslararasi Iliskiler
- Institution:
- International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
- Abstract:
- A significant foundation of European stability after World War II has been the balance of power between the United Kingdom (UK), France, and Germany. The UK’s accession to the European Communities (EC) in 1973 had carried that ‘balance’ into the EC’s institutional framework. In this regard, the UK’s withdrawal from EU structures may lead to an important political and financial vacuum at the center of the Union. In the wake of Brexit, indications of anxiety and concerns about power imbalances have emerged around the question of which country or counties will steer the Union. There exit fresh post-Brexit assessments that indicate that the UK’s departure from the EU may catalyze the differences between Germany and France. This paper will discuss three essential scenarios for the EU’s political and economic future direction, namely, French leadership, German leadership, and a Franco-German partnership, for the post-Brexit period.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Hegemony, European Union, Political stability, Brexit, and Strategic Stability
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, France, and Germany
8. The post-Brexit EU-UK relationship: an opportunity or challenge for cyber security?
- Author:
- Ellie Templeton and Robert Dewar
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- With multiple post-Brexit pathways that could still be pursued following the recent adoption of the new security agreements, the EU-UK cyber security relationship is still evolving. Value must be placed on collaboration to tackle shared cyber threats, the role EU institutions play in bringing cyber security actors together, and Britain’s former contribution to European security. These factors strongly indicate that, although new opportunities may present themselves, there will likely be irreversible losses for collective cyber resilience due to Brexit. In order to work towards a new, valuable relationship model, it is recommended that both the EU and UK uphold professional, transparent and non- political security cooperation going forward, whilst remaining open to flexible operational support in the unpredictable and ever-changing cyber threat landscape. Ultimately, within an international system affected by “instability, insecurity and uncertainty”,61 it remains to be seen what opportunities and challenges arise, and if the resulting relationship, whether based on one specific pathway or a combination of all three, could constitute an effective EU relationship model for non-EU entities in the cyber security field.
- Topic:
- Security, Regional Cooperation, European Union, Cybersecurity, and Brexit
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
9. The Brexit parenthesis: Three ways the pandemic is changing UK politics
- Author:
- Mark Leonard
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- The shock of covid-19 in Britain may end the culture-wars politics set off by the Brexit referendum – which split the country between Leave and Remain, town and city, old and young. Many people had lent their votes to Boris Johnson’s Conservatives for cultural reasons, in spite of the fact that they were closer to the opposition Labour Party on economic issues. Covid-19 might cause a rethink, as voters expect competence from the government. Counterintuitively, both Leavers and Remainers are open to a leftist domestic agenda and greater cooperation with international partners – issues on which Labour is normally strong. Covid-19 has caused voters to take a dimmer view of previously touted post-Brexit trade partners like the US and China. They think more highly of countries such as Germany. The battleground will be ‘Red Wall defectors’ – voters who gave Johnson his 2019 general election landslide but who are reassessing what matters to them after Brexit. A politics divided along the lines of Leavers and Remainers could disappear as quickly as it appeared – but the Conservatives may nevertheless attempt to stoke the divisions of 2016 that secured them Brexit.
- Topic:
- Politics, European Union, Brexit, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
10. EU sanctions and Brexit: Losing the hard edge of European foreign policy?
- Author:
- Juha Jokela and Ilari Aula
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The EU needs to assume more responsibility in defending its interests and security. Brexit will constitute an additional challenge for the EU in this respect, and has led to calls to strengthen the efficiency of the the Common Foreign and Security Policy, including EU sanctions, which currently form one of the toughest and most increasingly used tools in the EU’s foreign policy toolbox. The UK has been the most active and influential member state in formulating the EU’s sanctions policy. The EU could largely replace the technical expertise provided by the UK, yet the level of ambition of the EU’s sanctions policy is likely to decrease. Even though the UK has taken measures to maintain the sanctions regimes it agreed to as an EU member state, an independent UK sanctions policy could result in divergence. The envisaged coordination mechanisms between EU and UK sanctions policies can mitigate some of the negative implications of Brexit, but they cannot replace the UK’s EU membership.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Sanctions, European Union, and Brexit
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
11. Brexit: An Assessment of Zambia- UK Trade & Investment Relations
- Author:
- Shimukunki Manchishi and Mwanda Phiri
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
- Abstract:
- Following the Brexit referendum held in the UK in 2016 that resulted in a majority vote to leave the EU, there has been speculation and uncertainty surrounding the likely impact of Brexit on trade relations between the UK and developing countries such as Zambia. With Brexit, comes the exit of the UK from the EU, its customs union as well as the single market. Consequently, this implies that Zambia’s trade with the UK will no longer be under the ambit of the EU Everything But Arms (EBA) trade agreement which grants Zambian products other than arms, duty-free and quota-free market access to the UK. Naturally, this brings about questions of the likely impact of Brexit on trade relations between Zambia and the UK which thus far, has been determined collectively under the framework of the EU since the UK’s accession to the EU customs union. In this policy paper, we provide a contextual analysis of the same. From this, we deduce that a ‘deal’ or ‘no deal’ Brexit is not likely to adversely impact the UK’s trade with Zambia. This is on condition that the UK’s own unilateral preference scheme comes into place and in time, to replicate the EU-EBA scheme with no disruption to traders. On the Investment front, although the UK has been Zambia’s fourth-largest source country for FDI inflows over the period 2010-2017, investments have been waning. Brexit has the potential to turn things around as the UK seeks to increase investments in other jurisdictions outside of the EU. With the UK now envisioning to become the largest G7 investor in Africa by 2022, there is a high probability that Brexit could lead to a positive investment crowding in effect, provided Zambia becomes a more attractive investment destination.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Brexit, Investment, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United Kingdom, Europe, and Zambia
12. The European Union’s post-Brexit reckoning with financial markets
- Author:
- Rebecca Christie and Thomas Wieser
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- In the negotiations between the European Union and the United Kingdom over their future relationship, we see a high probability of a weak contractual outcome, given the dominance of politics over considerations of market efficiency.
- Topic:
- Markets, Governance, Europe, Brexit, Negotiation, and Macroeconomics
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
13. A post-Brexit agreement for research and innovation
- Author:
- Michael Leigh, Beth Thompson, and Reinhilde Veugelers
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- This report sets out what the Wellcome Trust and Bruegel have learned from a project to simulate a negotiation process between the UK and EU to create a post-Brexit research and innovation agreement. Our negotiating scenario assumed that the UK had left the EU with a withdrawal agreement, and that the negotiation was taking place during a ‘standstill’ transition period.
- Topic:
- Treaties and Agreements, Governance, European Union, Research, Brexit, Macroeconomics, Innovation, and Transition
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
14. Political attitudes at a time of flux
- Author:
- Katy Hayward and Ben Rosher
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- 2019 was a year of tremendous political significance in Northern Ireland in terms of what failed to happen. On-off talks between the DUP and Sinn Féin went nowhere and the Assembly Chamber in Stormont remained empty for a third year. Theresa May’s Withdrawal Agreement failed to be passed by the House of Commons and so the UK remained an EU member-state into the new year. This Research Update by Katy Hayward and Ben Rosher highlights public attitudes relevant to the political challenges in Northern Ireland, based on data from the 2019 Northern Ireland Life and Times (NILT) survey.
- Topic:
- Politics, Elections, and Brexit
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, and Northern Ireland
15. Fisheries and Brexit
- Author:
- Anand Menon, Catherine Barnard, John Connolly, and Arno Van Der Zwet
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- Brexit has been a steep learning curve for all of us. It has forced us to wrap our heads around a number of issues – Article 50, statutory instruments, rules of origin, business motions in the House of Commons and the rest – with which we were, at best, only vaguely familiar. Fish and fisheries is another such issue. Absurd though it may seem, as the formal Brexit process reaches its endgame, fisheries might yet be the issue that determines whether the negotiations succeed or fail. Consequently, we at the UK in a Changing Europe have put together this short report to try to explain the basics about a sector that is frequently referred to yet rarely properly understood. The aim of what follows is to explain, as clearly and accessibly as possible, what is at stake in the negotiations over fisheries, what is being negotiated and what the implications of these talks might be for the sector.
- Topic:
- European Union, Brexit, Trade, and Fishing
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
16. Brexit and the consequences for fisheries management in the North Sea
- Author:
- Gordon Munro
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- The North Sea is a very productive fishing area of great importance to surrounding coastal states Norway, the UK, Sweden, the Netherlands, France, Germany, Denmark and Belgium, with an average total harvest in recent years of slightly more than 1.8 million tonnes. This report explains why the cooperative management of the six shared North Sea fish stocks has been so stable to date and considers what lessons this success holds for the world at large. The report also speculates on the post Brexit management of these resources. The lessons learned from cooperative management over 40 years may well have an impact also on future cooperation between Norway, the UK and the EU27.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, European Union, Economy, Brexit, Oceans and Seas, and Fishing
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, France, Germany, Belgium, Denmark, Sweden, and Netherlands
17. Will getting Brexit done restore political trust?
- Author:
- Will Jennings
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- There has been much written and said about the degree of trust that voters have in their government, and in politicians in general. At a time of considerable uncertainty around Covid-19, as well as around the various laws and guidelines governing public behaviour during the pandemic, these questions have taken on a newfound urgency. This report looks provides a starting point for those interested in tracking the relationship between government and governed in this Parliament.
- Topic:
- Government, Politics, European Union, Brexit, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
18. Brexit and the Union
- Author:
- Mary C. Murphy, Michael Keating, David Bell, Nicola McEwen, Michael Kenny, Jac Larner, Dan Wincott, and Kirsty Hughes
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- What challenges does leaving the European Union pose for the Unions of Great Britain and Northern Ireland? On 3 February the Centre on Constitutional Change launched their latest report, Brexit and the Union where their fellows discuss some of the issues Brexit presents for the UK’s territorial and constitutional future. This report looks at: Brexit and Ireland/Northern Ireland’s Constitutional Future The Internal Market Post-Brexit Regional Funds and Fisheries Arrangements Brexit: Exposing the Limits of Devolved Authority England’s Territorial Politics After Brexit Wales: Where Next? Brexit, Scotland and Europe
- Topic:
- Markets, European Union, Brexit, and Fishing
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, Ireland, Scotland, and Wales
19. Brexit and the British in Spain
- Author:
- Karen O'Reilly
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- This report is based on findings from the BrExpats research project, funded by the Economic and Social Research Council through UK in a Changing Europe Initiative (Grant Number ES/R000875/1). This was a longitudinal study of Brexit and its implications for UK nationals living in other European Union member states. From May 2017 until January 2020, the project team tracked the Brexit negotiations and what they mean for the political rights, social and financial entitlements, identity, citizenship and belonging of Britons living in the EU-27. In particular, the project team documented how the protracted uncertainties about what Brexit means for citizens’ rights—the rights and entitlements derived from exercising Freedom of Movement—were experienced by UK nationals living across the EU-27, and with what consequences for their ongoing emotional and practical choices.
- Topic:
- European Union, Brexit, Negotiation, and Public Policy
- Political Geography:
- Britain, United Kingdom, Europe, and Spain
20. Anticipating and meeting new multilevel governance challenges in Northern Ireland after Brexit
- Author:
- Katy Hayward
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- This report shares results from an 18-month long project which considered the democratic implications of the Protocol on Northern Ireland/Ireland contained in the Withdrawal Agreement at every level of government: within Northern Ireland, within the UK, north-south on the island of Ireland, British-Irish, and now UK-EU. The authors lay out 80 recommendations as to what measures can be taken in order to ensure that Northern Ireland’s interests can be protected and heard in the new post-Brexit landscape.
- Topic:
- Governance, European Union, and Brexit
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, Ireland, and Northern Ireland
21. Revisited: What would ‘trading on WTO terms’ mean?
- Author:
- Catherine Barnard and Anand Menon
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- Whether it is because of fishing rights, financial services, the EU’s insistence that the UK adhere to its level playing field, governance demands, or simply running out of time, it is far from clear that a trade deal will be successfully negotiated and approved by the end of 2020. As a consequence, the notion of the UK trading with the EU ‘on WTO terms’ has resurfaced. We have produced this report to explain what the WTO is and what trading on WTO terms actually means legally and practically. It updates an earlier version published in 2018.
- Topic:
- European Union, Constitution, Economy, Brexit, Trade, and WTO
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
22. Brexit: what next?
- Author:
- Anand Menon
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- The UK has finally left the European Union. Brexit has happened. However, what promises to be a long and complex process of dealing with its implications is only just beginning. Given this, we thought it was worth trying to take stock of where we’ve got to, and to look forward to the challenges that confront us moving forward. Social science has as much, if not more, to offer in phase two as it did in phase one.
- Topic:
- European Union, Constitution, Economy, and Brexit
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
23. Beer and Brexit with Sir David Lidington
- Author:
- David Lidington and Anand Menon
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- On 30 January 2020, Professor Anand Menon was joined by former cabinet minister and Conservative MP Sir David Lidington for our first Beer and Brexit of 2020.
- Topic:
- European Union, Business, Brexit, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
24. Populism and the Pandemic
- Author:
- Catherine Fieschi, Matthew Goodwin, Paul Taggart, and Tim Bale
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- At this event in our #IsolationInsight virtual series, our speakers discussed what populist leaders are doing in the Covid-19 crisis, how they are exploiting it, and the impact this is likely to have on politics.
- Topic:
- Politics, European Union, Brexit, Populism, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
25. Covid 19 and post Brexit migration policy
- Author:
- Alberto Costa, Jonathan Portes, Lauren McLaren, Marina Fernandez Reino, and Tim Bale
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- Our recent #IsolationInsight virtual event looked at what the UK’s post Brexit immigration regime could and should look like, considering also public opinion on immigration and the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. Speakers: Alberto Costa, Conservative MP for South Leicestershire Professor Jonathan Portes, senior fellow at the UK in a Changing Europe Professor Lauren McLaren, @University of Leicester Marina Fernandez Reino, Migration Observatory Chair: Professor Tim Bale, deputy director at the UK in a Changing Europe
- Topic:
- Economics, Migration, Politics, Immigration, Economy, Brexit, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
26. The economics of Brexit and Covid-19
- Author:
- Ben Chu, Jonathan Portes, Meredith Crowley, Gemma Tetlow, and Anand Menon
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- Our recent #IsolationInsight event discussed the economics of the coronavirus pandemic and the UK’s departure from the EU. Speakers : Ben Chu, economics editor, @The Independent ; Professor Jonathan Portes, senior fellow, The UK in a Changing Europe ; Dr Meredith Crowley, senior fellow, The UK in a Changing Europe ; Dr Gemma Tetlow, chief economist, @Institute for Government ; Chair: Professor Anand Menon, director, The UK in a Changing Europe
- Topic:
- Economics, European Union, Brexit, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
27. Four years since the referendum: the state of public opinion
- Author:
- John Curtice, Paula Surridge, Will Jennings, James Johnson, and Anand Menon
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- To mark four years since the EU referendum, our Isolation Insight event looked at how public opinion has changed since the vote, how values have evolved and shaped politics, trust in government and leaders, and more. Speakers: Sir John Curtice, senior fellow, UK in a Changing Europe; Paula Surridge, political sociologist, University of Bristol; Professor Will Jennings, professor of political science and public policy, University of Southampton; James Johnson, co-founder of J.L. Partners and former head pollster at 10 Downing Street; Chair: Professor Anand Menon, director, UK in a Changing Europe
- Topic:
- Government, Politics, European Union, Brexit, and Referendum
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
28. Manufacturing and Brexit report briefing
- Author:
- David Bailey, Caroline Flint, Mike Hawes, Jill Rutter, and Anand Menon
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- This briefing on our new report looked at the impacts of Brexit on the UK’s manufacturing sector, with speakers: Professor David Bailey, lead report author and senior fellow, UK in a Changing Europe Caroline Flint, former Labour MP for Don Valley Mike Hawes, chief executive, Society of Motor Manufacturers & Traders Jill Rutter, senior research fellow, UK in a Changing Europe Professor Anand Menon, director, UK in a Changing Europe
- Topic:
- European Union, Brexit, and Manufacturing
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
29. Devolution post-Brexit: new frictions, old tensions
- Author:
- Katy Hayward, Nicola McEwen, Dan Wincott, Peter Foster, and Anand Menon
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- The UK’s membership of the EU played a supporting role in maintaining the domestic Union, even as devolved powers grew. Brexit has exposed the legal fragility of the UK internal market at a time when relations between Westminster and the devolved governments are especially fraught. Proposals to replace EU regulation with new all-UK frameworks may reduce the risk of internal barriers, but they could also further centralise power in London. Our next Isolation Insight event explored these tensions, considering how they might play into debates on the future of the Union itself. Speakers: Dr Katy Hayward, senior fellow, UK in a Changing Europe; Professor Nicola McEwen, senior fellow, UK in a Changing Europe; Professor Dan Wincott, director of Governance after Brexit; Peter Foster, public policy editor, @Financial Times; Chair: Professor Anand Menon, director, UK in a Changing Europe
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, European Union, Brexit, and Centralization
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
30. Brexit: six months of stalemate
- Author:
- David O'Sullivan, Katya Adler, Bruno Waterfield, Anand Menon, and Jill Rutter
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- This Isolation Insight webinar looked at the latest state of play of the Brexit negotiations and the challenges ahead. Speakers : David O'Sullivan, former European Union ambassador to the United States; Katya Adler, Europe Editor, BBC; Bruno Waterfield, Brussels Correspondent, The Times; Anand Menon, Director, UK in a Changing Europe; Chair: Jill Rutter, Senior Research Fellow, UK in a Changing Europe
- Topic:
- European Union, Brexit, and Negotiation
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
31. Labour's Brexit policy
- Author:
- Rachel Reeves, Stephen Bush, and Anand Menon
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- As the Brexit transition period comes to an end, UK in a Changing Europe and LabourList are putting on a series of events exploring the key issues facing the Labour Party in the coming months. At our first event, Chair Sienna Rodgers spoke to panelists about Labour’s Brexit policy, as the negotiations reach crunch point. Speakers: Rachel Reeves, Shadow Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster and Shadow Minister for the Cabinet Office, Labour Party; Stephen Bush, Political Editor, New Statesman; Anand Menon, Director, UK in a Changing Europe
- Topic:
- European Union, Brexit, and Political Parties
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
32. Economics of Covid-19 and Brexit, revisited
- Author:
- Ben Chu, Meredith Crowley, Gemma Tetlow, Thomas Sampson, and Anand Menon
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- At this Isolation Insight webinar, panelists discussed the economics of the Covid-19 pandemic and the UK's exit from the EU, six months after lockdown began and with less than three months left of the transition period. Speakers: Ben Chu, economics editor, The Independent; Meredith Crowley, senior fellow, UK in a Changing Europe; Gemma Tetlow, chief economist, Institute for Government; Thomas Sampson, associate professor, London School of Economics; Chair: Anand Menon, director, UK in a Changing Europe
- Topic:
- Economics, European Union, Brexit, Transition, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
33. The US election 2020 and transatlantic relations
- Author:
- Gideon Rachman, Jeremy Shapiro, Kate McNamara, and Anand Menon
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- At this Isolation Insight webinar, speakers discusses the US election and what the result might mean for transatlantic relations. Speakers : Gideon Rachman, Chief Foreign Affairs Commentator, Financial Times; Jeremy Shapiro, Research Director, European Council on Foreign Relations; Kate McNamara, Professor of Government and Foreign Service, Georgetown University; Chair: Anand Menon, Director, UK in a Changing Europe
- Topic:
- Elections, European Union, Brexit, and Transatlantic Relations
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, North America, and United States of America
34. Health in Changing Times
- Author:
- Paul Darragh, Bernie McCrory, Damien McCallion, Philippa Whitford, Paul Williams, Layla McCay, and Alison Moore
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- This event is part of the ESRC’s Festival of Social Science 2020, which we are organising in partnership with the University of Sheffield, Queen’s University Belfast and Shout Out UK. Speakers will discuss the ‘Brexit, Health and Me’ film, which reports on research by academics following the EU referendum. Speakers are: Dr Paul Darragh, Member of BMA UK Board of Science, BMA UK Council; Bernie McCrory, Chief Officer, Cross Border Health and Social Care, Northern Ireland; Damien McCallion Director General, Cross Border Health and Social Care, Northern Ireland; Dr Philippa Whitford, MP for Central Ayrshire; Dr Paul Williams, former MP for Stockton South 2017-2019; Dr Layla McCay, Director of International Relations, NHS Confederation; Chair: Alison Moore, Correspondent, Health Service Journal
- Topic:
- Health Care Policy, European Union, Brexit, COVID-19, and National Health Service (NHS)
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
35. Labour: a year after the election
- Author:
- Bell Ribeiro-Addy, Lucy Powell, John Curtice, Sienna Rodgers, and Anand Menon
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- The outcome of the 2019 general election was the worst in the Labour Party’s history. One year on from the vote the UK in a Changing Europe and LabourList are putting on an event looking at how the party has changed over the last 12 months and what it needs to do to win in 2024. Speakers are: Bell Ribeiro-Addy, MP for Streatham, Labour Party; Lucy Powell, Shadow Minister for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy and MP for Manchester Central, Labour Party; Sir John Curtice, Senior Fellow, UK in a Changing Europe; Sienna Rodgers, Editor, LabourList; Chair: Anand Menon, Director, UK in a Changing Europe
- Topic:
- Elections, European Union, Brexit, Political Parties, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
36. Brexit Waves Will Lap at America’s Shores
- Author:
- Robert Cox
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- American Diplomacy
- Abstract:
- Amid the toil and trouble of their own politics Americans might have a moment to note the self-flagellation of their closest European ally. There’s more to come – and the US is going to be drawn into it, whether it likes it or not. Coronavirus has now temporarily obscured the Brexit issue while arguably inflicting upon the European Union the greatest strains since its creation. A stricken EU helps nobody.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, European Union, Brexit, and Transatlantic Relations
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, United States of America, and North America
37. The Brexit referendum and the rise in hate crime; conforming to the new norm
- Author:
- Facundo Albornoz, Jake Bradley, and Silvia Sonderegger
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
- Abstract:
- We show that the sharp increase in hate crime following the Brexit referendum was more pronounced in more pro-remain areas. This is consistent with a model where behavior is dictated by the desire to conform to imperfectly observed social norms in addition to following individual preferences, and where the referendum revealed that society’s real preferences over immigration were less positive than previously thought. For identification, we exploit the feature that the referendum revealed new information overnight in a context where other determinants of attitudes remained constant. The data can be replicated with a sensible parameterization of the model.
- Topic:
- Immigration, Public Opinion, Brexit, and Discrimination
- Political Geography:
- Britain and United Kingdom
38. Brexit on the Backburner: Citizens’ Rights and the Implementation of the Withdrawal Agreement in a Pandemic
- Author:
- Aliyyah Ahad and Monica Andriescu
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
- Abstract:
- Just weeks after the United Kingdom’s formal departure from the European Union on January 31, 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic hit Europe with full force. The outbreak drew public and political attention away from the implementation of the withdrawal agreement, while also straining many public administrations, including agencies responsible for residency applications. With the clock ticking down on the transition period, set to end on December 31, 2020, many EU countries have yet to announce the details of the systems that will govern the future status and rights of their UK-national residents. The United Kingdom is further along, having rolled out its pilot EU Settlement Scheme to resident EU nationals in 2019. But of the 26 EU countries with responsibilities for citizens’ rights, only Italy, Malta, and the Netherlands had launched registration schemes before the pandemic began. And even where implementation had begun, many systems faced setbacks as in-person government services were suspended by lockdown measures. This has created considerable uncertainty for UK nationals in EU countries, and EU nationals in the United Kingdom—as well as their families—who will have six months after the transition period ends to acquire a new post-Brexit status. As this policy brief details, the pandemic has put some in an even more precarious position, including families with third-country-national members that have been separated by travel restrictions, and the newly unemployed, who may no longer meet the conditions of the EU Free Movement Directive (the foundation of the withdrawal agreement). This brief sets out steps governments on both sides of the Channel can take in the coming months to “pandemic-proof” their implementation plans. These include: investing in smart outreach to would-be applicants, streamlining status-adjustment processes, and supporting civil-society groups that can help applicants through the process.
- Topic:
- Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Economy, Brexit, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
39. Brexit and the Differentiated European (Dis)Integration
- Author:
- Angelica Szucko
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Contexto Internacional
- Institution:
- Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
- Abstract:
- On 25 March 2017, the European Union celebrated the 60th anniversary of the Treaties of Rome, which established ‘an ever-closer union’ as a fundamental principle for European region- al integration. Only four days later, the United Kingdom delivered an official letter triggering its withdrawal process from the Community. How could we comprehend Brexit integrative and dis- integrative dynamics to the EU? The UK’s decision to leave the EU alongside recent crises in the Community and the spread of Eurosceptic movements fostered studies about disintegration dynam- ics. This article presents the current debate about differentiated (dis)integration based on up-to-date related literature. Next, it proposes a framework to assess the recent shifts in the UK-EU relationship and its contradictory effects on the EU project. The main argument of the paper is that the UK’s relationship with the European Union moved from an internal differentiated integration to a pro- posal of internal differentiated disintegration and, thereafter, to a process of external differentiated disintegration. Moreover, although Brexit means disintegration by one Member State, its effects on the EU project are mixed, initially promoting an integrative boom among the EU27 members, while at the same time neglecting disintegrating forces that could undermine the traditional European integration model.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, European Union, Brexit, and Integration
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
40. Resilience or Relocation? Expectations and Reality in the City of London since the Brexit Referendum.
- Author:
- Manolis Kalaitzake
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
- Abstract:
- The fate of British finance following the Brexit referendum revolves around the “resilience or relocation” debate: will the City of London continue to thrive as the world’s leading financial centre or will the bulk of its activity move to rival hubs after departure from EU trading arrangements? Despite extensive commentary, there remains no systematic analysis of this question since the Leave vote. This paper addresses that lacuna by evaluating the empirical evidence concerning jobs, investments, and share of key trading markets (between June 2016 and May 2020). Contrary to widely held expectations, the evidence suggests that the City has been remarkably resilient. Brexit has had no significant impact on jobs and London has consolidated its position as the chief location for financial FDI, FinTech funding, and attracting new firms. Most unexpectedly, the City has increased its dominance in major infrastructure markets such as (euro-denominated) clearing, derivatives, and foreign exchange – although it has lost out in the handling of European repurchase agreements. Based upon this evidence, the paper argues that the UK’s negotiating position is stronger than typically recognised, and outlines the competitive ramifications for both the UK and EU financial sector.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, European Union, Brexit, Urban, and Local
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
41. A Post-Brexit Trade Policy for Development and a More Integrated Africa
- Author:
- Kimberly Ann Elliott
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- The United Kingdom will confirm its departure from the European Union on 31st January 2020. As part of its independent trade policy, the government has committed to improve access to UK mar- kets for the poorest countries. This note sets out three ways it can do so: expanding duty-free market access while avoiding piecemeal trade agreements that undermine Africa’s own trade integration ef- forts; using an alternative framework for those trade agreements it does negotiate with developing countries; and supporting a “back-to-basics” multilateral negotiation at the World Trade Organiza- tion that could help to rebuild confidence in that institution and thus protect the interests of small and vulnerable countries. After a brief review of the background and context, it sets out specific pro- posals in each of these areas.
- Topic:
- Development, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, European Union, and Brexit
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United Kingdom, and Europe
42. Where Does the Buck Stop with the Backstop? The Irish-UK Border in Brexit Negotiations: June 2016-January 2019
- Author:
- Paul McNamara
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Polish Political Science Yearbook
- Institution:
- Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
- Abstract:
- The abject failure of British Prime Minister Theresa May to get the United Kingdom’s (UK) Withdrawal Agreement from the European Union (EU) through Parliament on 15 January 2019, with MPs overwhelmingly rejecting it by 432 votes to 202, has been put down to a variety of reasons. Primary among them has been the question of the post-Brexit status of the land border between the Republic of Ireland and the UK’s province of Northern Ireland. Although an issue which was initially seen as of minor importance, the significance of the Irish border steadily grew over time until it became the main stumbling block in UKEU Brexit negotiations brought about by the decision of the British people to leave the EU in a referendum held on 23 June 2016. Indeed, the key term of the ensuing debate, namely ‘the Irish backstop’, produced such confusion among politicians, political pundits and the general public that the House of Commons, split between so-called Brexiteers and Remainers, decided to reject May’s deal out of hand. This article seeks to argue that, from June 2016 (the time of the referendum) up to January 2019 (the time of the first vote on May’s Brexit deal in Parliament), the issue of the Irish backstop was seriously underestimated before suddenly taking centre stage and ultimately sabotaging the Withdrawal Agreement from within.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, European Union, Brexit, and Borders
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, and Ireland
43. The Battle of Brexit. Analysis of the 2019 United Kingdom General Election Results
- Author:
- Bartłomiej H. Toszek
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Polish Political Science Yearbook
- Institution:
- Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
- Abstract:
- The article presents the main parties (i.e. the Conservative Party, Labor Party, Liberal Democrats and Scottish National Party) results of the 2019 UK general election as well as an analysis of the most important issues (i.e. correct identification of voters’ expectations, simplicity and clarity of the messages, leaders’ personalities) which determined each party success or loss. The author proves that since Brexit was the primary focus of voters, the level of support for particular parties remained dependent on the solutions presented in this issue. This basis explains why the Conservatives in the whole UK and the SNP in Scotland won (and the Labor Party and the Liberal Democrats lost) the battle of Brexit.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Elections, European Union, Brexit, and Nativism
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
44. Getting Brexit Started: prospects for a new EU-UK partnership into the 2020s
- Author:
- Andrew Hammond and Tim Oliver
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- LSE IDEAS
- Abstract:
- The withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU) on January 31 was a seminal moment in post-war history, and one that presents challenges and opportunities for both key parties. Yet far from being a single, isolated event, the departure derives from a much broader process of well over a dozen negotiations (a catch-all term used here for formal diplomatic discussions and wider debates about Brexit) between and within the UK and EU about their futures. With so many Brexit negotiations still underway, this paper underlines that the final form of the UK’s departure from the EU is not yet set in stone. Even with a withdrawal deal now ratified, there are multiple scenarios still possible: from a disorderly exit this year, through to the outside prospect of the transition being extended and a deep, comprehensive deal being concluded later in the 2020s. The stakes in play therefore remain huge and historic as both sides seek a new constructive partnership that can hopefully bring significant benefits for both at a time of global geopolitical turbulence.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, European Union, Partnerships, Geopolitics, and Brexit
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
45. Britain's No-Deal Debacle? The Costs at Home and Likely Setbacks Abroad
- Author:
- John Ryan
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- LSE IDEAS
- Abstract:
- For much of the past four years, and increasingly in the past few months, the United Kingdom has drifted in the direction of a No-Deal Brexit. In this Strategic Update, John Ryan explores the economic and political consequences for the United Kingdom of such a situation, as well as the domestic factors in Ireland and the United States that may provide unanticipated problems for the Johnson government.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, Politics, Brexit, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Britain, United Kingdom, Europe, Ireland, and United States of America
46. Great Britain and the European Union Beyond Brexit
- Author:
- Ana Muhar Blanquart
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
- Abstract:
- Brexit is a term coined of the words “British exit”, referring to the United Kingdom leaving the European Union. First used in 2012 by the founder of the British Influence think-tank Peter Wilding, it became the most frequently used political term in 2016, the year when the British electorate chose to leave the European Union and thus change the political landscape of the United Kingdom and the European Union.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Brexit
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, England, North Ireland, Ireland, Scotland, and Wales
47. Britain's Uncertain Brexit March
- Author:
- Marko Attila Hoare
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
- Abstract:
- The popular vote of the UK on 23 June 2016 to leave the EU has been politically an earthquake for the first and a shock to the second. Retrospectively, the outcome was likely, given the structural factors both within Britain and between Britain and the EU. Yet these same factors have obstructed a clear British post- referendum strategy for secession: Britain Britain’s relationship to Europe is traditionally ambiguous. Britain’s identity - of a Protestant island-state formed in 1707 from the Anglo- Scottish union - was cemented during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries in wars against the Catholic powers of continental Europe. It was successively reinforced by Napoleon’s anti-British Continental System; does not know what kind of Brexit it wants, or whether it wants one at all. This briefing will examine the causes of the Brexit revolution and the reasons for its uncertain execution, before considering the likely outcome.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Geopolitics, Europe Union, and Brexit
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, England, Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Wales
48. L’ambivalence de la politique d’armement britannique vis-à-vis de l’Europe (The Ambivalence of British Arms Policy Towards Europe)
- Author:
- Samuel B. H. Faure
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
- Abstract:
- Published in the context of Brexit, this research paper analyses the ‘double relationship’ between Britain and Europe: being ‘in’ by taking part in co-operation with other European states, and at the same time being ‘out’ by staying away from or even leaving multilateral programmes in Europe. This dilemma is worked on from the case of defence procurement policy. How does the British government decide to be both ‘in’ and ‘out’ of Europe by participating in the A400M military transport aircraft programme and withdrawing from the EuroMale UAV programme? Based on exclusive data, the decision in favour of the A400M (‘in’) is explained by the action of political, administrative and industrial actors who perceive the A400M as a ‘truck’ rather than a ‘race car’. As for the British State’s decision not to participate in the EuroMale programme (‘out’), it is conditioned by a weakening of the political will of political actors, and at the same time by a strengthening of conflicting relations between French and British administrations and industries. In doing so, this research contributes to the literature on the acquisition of armaments in strategic studies, and to the literature on differentiated integration in European studies.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Political Economy, European Union, Brexit, Conflict, and Europeanization
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, France, Western Europe, and European Union
49. The Global Impact of Brexit Uncertainty
- Author:
- Tarek A. Hassan, Laurence van Lent, Stephan Hollander, and Ahmed Tahoun
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
- Abstract:
- Using tools from computational linguistics, we construct new measures of the impact of Brexit on listed firms in the United States and around the world: the share of discussions in quarterly earnings conference calls on costs, benefits, and risks associated with the UK’s intention to leave the EU. Using this approach, we identify which firms expect to gain or lose from Brexit and which are most affected by Brexit uncertainty. We then estimate the effects of these different kinds of Brexit exposure on firm-level outcomes. We find that concerns about Brexit-related uncertainty extend far beyond British or even European firms. US and international firms most exposed to Brexit uncertainty have lost a substantial fraction of their market value and have reduced hiring and investment. In addition to Brexit uncertainty (the second moment), we find that international firms overwhelmingly expect negative direct effects of Brexit (the first moment), should it come to pass. Most prominently, firms expect difficulties resulting from regulatory divergence, reduced labor mobility, trade access, and the costs of adjusting their operations post-Brexit. Consistent with the predictions of canonical theory, this negative sentiment is recognized and priced in stock markets but has not yet had significant effects on firm actions.
- Topic:
- Economics, Political Economy, Regional Cooperation, Brexit, Global Political Economy, and Economic Policy
- Political Geography:
- Britain, United States, United Kingdom, Europe, and European Union
50. The 2019 European elections: New political constellations
- Author:
- Tuomas Iso-Markku and Marco Siddi
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Three main factors will determine the shape of the next European Parliament (EP): the outcome of the elections, the organisation of national parties into supranational political groups, and developments in the Brexit process. Everything points towards some significant changes – and a considerable degree of uncertainty – in the new EP. The EP’s centre-right and centre-left groups are expected to lose their combined majority for the first time since 1979, whereas far-right parties and liberal democrats will likely increase their representation. The EP’s mainstream groups will therefore need new allies to achieve majorities, which could boost the influence of the smaller groups. The choice of the next Commission President will be the first major test for the new EP. While most political groups have designated candidates, it is unclear whether the Spitzenkandidaten system will be followed. If and when it takes place, Brexit will have an impact on the size of the EP, reducing it from 751 to 705 seats, as well as on the composition of the political groups that include British parliamentarians.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, European Union, Brexit, and European Parliament
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
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