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1. UK-EU Relations Tracker Q3

Author:
Cleo Davies and Jannike Wachowiak
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
Released quarterly, the UK in a Changing Europe UK-EU Relations Tracker assesses relations between the UK and EU as well as relationships between the UK and EU member states. This edition of the tracker covers developments from July to September 2023. On 1 October, the UK government introduced the green-lane/red-lane system to ease the flow of goods between Great Britain and Northern Ireland as part of the Windsor Framework. In the context of thawing relations post Windsor Framework, the UK and EU have reiterated their commitment to making the most of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA). The political agreement on the UK’s association to the Horizon and Copernicus programmes was an important milestone. In other areas, the tracker notes that discussions are ongoing. On the future of the relationship, the tracker highlights a growing mismatch between debates on the two sides. Within the UK, the Labour Party have set out plans for building on the TCA in pursuit of a closer trading relationship. The EU, on the other hand, shows little appetite for revisiting the terms of UK-EU trade. Bilaterally, the UK has now signed general statements or declarations with most EU member states. The focus is therefore shifting from formalising relations to maintaining and implementing them. This requires continued engagement, which the tracker indicates can be difficult to sustain at the highest political level.
Topic:
International Relations, International Cooperation, European Union, and Trade
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

2. Authoritarian kleptocrats are thriving on the West’s failures. Can they be stopped?

Author:
Francis Shin and Ben Judah
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
A hidden web of power revealed itself to Internet users in early 2022. Following a brutal government crackdown in Kazakhstan in January, anyone using open-source flight-tracking websites could watch kleptocratic elites flee the country on private jets. A little more than a month later, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine brought a new spectacle: social media users were able to track various oligarchs’ superyachts as they jumped from port to port to evade Western sanctions. These feeds captured a national security problem in near real time: In Eurasia and beyond, kleptocratic elites with deep ties to the West were able to move themselves and their assets freely despite a host of speeches by senior officials, sanctions, and structures designed to stop them. Kleptocratic regimes—kleptocracy means “rule by thieves”—have exploited the lax and uneven regulatory environments of the global financial system to hide their ill-gotten gains and interfere in politics abroad, especially in the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union. They are aided in this task by a large cast of professional enablers within these jurisdictions. The stronger these forces get, the more they erode the principles of democracy and the rule of law. Furthermore, the international sanctions regime imposed on Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine has little hope of long-term success if the global financial system itself continues to weaken. The West still has a long way to go to rein in the authoritarian kleptocrats who have thrived on the institutional dysfunction, regulatory failure, and bureaucratic weakness of the transatlantic community for far too long. We need to rethink not just how we combat kleptocracy, but also how we define it. Policy makers need to understand that authoritarian regimes that threaten transatlantic security are closely linked to illicit financial systems. As it stands, our thinking about how foreign corruption spreads is too constrained by stereotypes about kleptocratic goals and actions.
Topic:
Corruption, Diplomacy, Intelligence, Politics, Sanctions, Authoritarianism, Reform, European Union, Regulation, Finance, Economy, Rule of Law, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, United Kingdom, Europe, Ukraine, Canada, and United States of America

3. Building a Mature UK Trade Policy

Author:
David Henig
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
Global Britain has not delivered according to the hopes expressed by supporters of leaving the EU. Trade with the rest of the world has not grown to make up for leaving a bloc with seamless trade, early Free Trade Agreements with Australia and New Zealand are of minor economic significance, and it is hard to discern much of a strategy beyond completing a few more similar deals. Meanwhile the world of trade policy is transformed since 2016, negatively. The US has essentially declared its national interests to be more important than global rules, while the EU wants to act unilaterally as the global regulator. In both, the climate crisis is being used as an excuse to reintroduce protectionist measures threatening economic damage and global stability. Expectations of what a UK outside of the EU could achieve were exaggerated, but nonetheless the country could be doing a lot better in its trade policy. There is no good reason for such tensions as exist with a broad range of frustrated stakeholders, the absence of clear purpose on UK strengths such as services, or the defensiveness that seemingly takes pride in secrecy and resistance to proper scrutiny. Adjustment time was inevitable, but six years should have been enough.
Topic:
Economics, European Union, Free Trade, and Trade Policy
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

4. How Russia Went to War: The Kremlin’s Preparations for Its Aggression Against Ukraine

Author:
Kalev Stoicescu, Mykola Nazarov, Keir Giles, and Matthew Johnson
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
This report examines Russia’s preparations for its full-scale invasion of Ukraine: domestically, in Ukraine itself, in the global information domain, and in building its relationship with China. For Russia, crushing Ukraine’s quest for democracy was central to meeting its objectives of reshaping the post-Cold War order in Europe and globally, restoring its own status, and reconstituting the Russian empire and Russian world. Its preparations in the political and informational, military, and economic domains for a full-scale war in Ukraine were too extensive and overt to go unnoticed, but they were not acted upon. It is hard to avoid the conclusion that the evidence went against the dominant narrative in the West and was simply brushed aside. In the political and informational domains, Russia’s domestic preparations including cementing the regime’s authority, and taking advantage of the population’s Soviet nostalgia and aspirations for the restoration of the Russian world and the empire. Limited economic preparations were intended to safeguard Russia’s economy against current and future Western sanctions, while Russia’s extensive military preparations involved large-scale defence spending and extensive military modernisation efforts. Russia’s preparations beyond its own territory included: a campaign within Ukraine to divide society and discredit the democratically elected leadership; a campaign directed at the rest of the world about Ukraine, discrediting the country and its people as an object of sympathy and support in their resistance against Russia; and a campaign of intimidation designed to instil in western leaders and populations a fear of obstructing, impeding, or offending Russia. Russia also worked to build a relationship with China. China’s support is essential to Putin’s ambitions. But equally, China’s strategy for confronting the United States – which China cannot do alone – depends on Russia remaining at least a quasi-great power.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Development, Sanctions, Military Affairs, European Union, Resilience, and Information Warfare
Political Geography:
Russia, China, United Kingdom, Europe, Asia, and United States of America

5. Fossil Fuel Industry Phase-Out and Just Transition: Designing Policies to Protect Workers’ Living Standards

Author:
Robert Pollin
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
This paper focuses on just transition policies targeted at supporting workers now employed in the fossil fuel industries and ancillary sectors within high-income economies. As a general normative principle, I argue that the overarching aim of such policies should be to protect workers against major losses in their living standards resulting through the fossil fuel industry phase-out. The impacted workers should be provided with three critical guarantees to accomplish this, in the area of jobs, compensation and pensions. Just transition policies should also support workers in the areas of job search, retraining and relocation, but these forms of support should be understood as supplementary. Within the framework of these broad principles, the paper first reviews experiences with transitional policies in Germany, the UK, the EU and, more briefly, Japan and Canada. A critical point that emerges is that these just transition policies do not provide the needed guarantees for assuring workers that they will not experience major living standard declines. The paper then describe an illustrative just transition program for workers that includes reemployment, income and pension guarantees, focusing on a case study for the U.S. state of West Virginia. The results show that the costs of the just transition program for West Virginia’s fossil fuel industry dependent workers will amount to an annual average of about $42,000 per worker, equal to about 0.2 percent of West Virginia’s GDP. I briefly summarize results from the seven other studies of U.S. states and for the overall U.S. economy. For the U.S. economy overall, the just transition program’s costs would total to about 0.015 percent of GDP. These findings demonstrate that providing a generous just transition program does not entail unaffordable levels of public spending. Robust just transition policies should therefore be understood as an entirely realistic prospect for all high-income economies.
Topic:
Political Economy, Labor Issues, European Union, GDP, Economy, and Fossil Fuels
Political Geography:
Japan, United Kingdom, Europe, Canada, and Germany

6. UK-EU regulatory divergence tracker Q3 2023

Author:
Joël Reland
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
UK in a Changing Europe’s series of regulatory divergence trackers provide an overview of where and how the UK has used its regulatory freedoms to diverge from EU regulation. It identifies and analyses the most significant cases of divergence between the UK and EU which have taken place since Brexit. It explains what the changes are, what impact they are having, and likely further consequences. This is the ninth edition of the regulatory divergence tracker, covering developments from August to October 2023. There are six cases of active divergence (where the UK, or some part of it, changes its rules); nine of passive divergence (where the EU changes its rules and the UK, or some part of it, does not follow); two of delayed divergence (where active divergence is delayed); and five of active alignment (where the UK takes steps to align more closely with EU rules, systems or programmes). In a what is now a recurring theme under Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, the UK has opted to delay some major cases of upcoming divergence.
Topic:
European Union, Regulation, and Divergence
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

7. Exploring ‘Bregret’: public attitudes to Brexit, seven years on

Author:
Ines Wittke, James Frayne, Seb Wride, and Sophie Stowers
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
Brexit refuses to go away. Over seven years since the referendum, and over three and a half since the UK finally left the European Union, the issue continues to generate headlines and spark furious debate. One reason for this is a sense that public opinion is still evolving. There has been much talk of ‘Brexit regret’ among Leave voters. Given this, Public First and UK in a Changing Europe decided to talk to Leave voters to hear from them what they thought. In a survey carried out in May and June 2023 and a series of focus groups held between May and September, a series of questions were posed to them about what they think about Brexit, how it has gone, whether they have changed their minds and what they think the future holds. This report describes the findings. DOWNLOAD THE REPORT
Topic:
Politics, Public Opinion, European Union, Brexit, and Society
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

8. Reviewing the Trade and Cooperation Agreement: potential paths

Author:
Jannike Wachowiak and Joël Reland
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
On Christmas Eve 2020 the UK and EU finally agreed a treaty to regulate their relationship post Brexit. The Trade and Cooperation Agreement was provisionally applied from 1 January 2021 and formally ratified in April. Among its numerous provisions, the treaty contains Article 776 stating that, ‘The Parties shall jointly review the implementation of this Agreement and supplementing agreements and any matters related thereto five years after the entry into force of this Agreement and every five years thereafter.’ Within the UK at least, many are looking to this review to deliver significant changes to the relationship. This report examines those provisions within the TCA and reflects on what might or might not reasonably be achieved in the context of the review. The report proposes three models which the review could follow: a technical check, acting on unfulfilled commitments, and widening the scope of the TCA.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Trade, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

9. The investment gap: the UK’s efforts to replace the European Investment Bank

Author:
Peter Jurkovic and Stephen Hunsaker
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
Following Brexit, the UK lost access to funding from the European Investment Bank. In this report, Stephen Hunsaker and Peter Jurkovic detail the impact this has had on the UK development finance landscape. The report outlines not only the role that development banks play in providing longer term financing for projects the private sector might be reluctant to support, but also the specific role the European Investment Bank played in infrastructure investments in the UK prior to 2020. It also explores the potential and ongoing implications of a lack of access to that investment despite the existence of a number of UK based banks intended to fill the gap.
Topic:
European Union, Finance, Economy, Brexit, Investment, Banking, and European Investment Bank
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

10. Policy landscape 2023

Author:
Ben Zaranko, Jonathan Portes, Mike Brewer, Paul Cheshire, and Carole Willis
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
What are the public policy challenges confronting the UK? What plans do the parties have for addressing them? To what extent are these plans fit for purpose? As Parliament returns from its summer recess, Full Fact and UK in a Changing Europe have partnered to produce a series of evidence led, research-based assessments of the key issues that politicians will confront. To do this, we brought together a group of leading experts from respected institutions including the Health Foundation, the Institute for Fiscal Studies, and the Royal United Services Institute. We asked each of them to consider, based on the findings of their own research, the challenges the country faces in their area of expertise, the immediate and longer-term issues politicians will need to address, and the potential implications of any choices they might make. We selected the issues based on the Ipsos issues index, and added security, defence and foreign affairs, which did not figure amongst the public’s priorities in July of this year. The intention of the collection is to inform and not persuade. Each article in this collection is the responsibility of its author.
Topic:
Climate Change, Education, Health, Politics, European Union, Economy, Brexit, Economic Growth, Public Policy, Fiscal Policy, Housing, and Standard of Living
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

11. UK-EU relations tracker: April – June 2023

Author:
Cleo Davies and Jannike Wachowiak
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
This is the second edition of the UKICE UK-EU Relations Tracker, covering developments in relations between the UK and EU and between the UK and EU member states from April to June 2023. This edition looks at key developments in the relationship since the formal adoption of the Windsor Framework on 24 March 2023 which had raised hopes for a reset in relations. Whilst some progress has been made within the framework of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA), other areas remain stalled.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Brexit, and Trade
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

12. UK-EU regulatory divergence tracker: eighth edition

Author:
Joël Reland
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
UK in a Changing Europe’s series of regulatory divergence trackers provide an overview of where and how the UK has used its newfound regulatory freedoms to diverge from EU regulation. It identifies and analyses the most significant cases of divergence between the UK and EU which have taken place since Brexit. It explains what the changes are, what impact they are having, and likely further consequences. This is the eighth edition of the UK in a Changing Europe’s regulatory divergence tracker, covering developments from April to July 2023. There are eleven cases of active divergence (where the UK, or some part of it, changes its rules); eight of passive divergence (where the EU changes its rules and the UK, or some part of it, does not follow); two of passive convergence (where the EU takes steps which align with UK rules); three of managed divergence (where the UK and EU make joint efforts to manage the implications of divergence); and one of internal divergence (changes in rules between different parts of the UK).
Topic:
European Union, Regulation, Brexit, and Divergence
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

13. UK-EU regulatory divergence tracker: seventh edition

Author:
Joël Reland
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
UK in a Changing Europe’s series of regulatory divergence trackers provide an overview of where and how the UK has used its newfound regulatory freedoms to diverge from EU regulation. It identifies and analyses the most significant cases of divergence between the UK and EU which have taken place since Brexit. It explains what the changes are, what impact they are having, and likely further consequences. This is the seventh edition of UK in a Changing Europe’s regulatory divergence tracker, covering developments since January 2023. There are seven cases of active divergence (where the UK, or some part of it, changes its rules); two of active convergence (where the UK, or some part of it, aligns to EU rules); 17 of passive divergence (where the EU changes its rules and the UK, or some part of it, does not follow); and one of internal divergence (changes in rules between different parts of the UK). In addition, the Windsor Framework is significant case of ‘managed divergence’: a UK-EU agreement which alters the regulatory border between Great Britain (GB) and Northern Ireland (NI), as created by the Protocol.
Topic:
European Union, Regulation, Brexit, and Divergence
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

14. UK-EU relations tracker: first edition

Author:
Cleo Davies and Sophie Stowers
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
This new UK in a Changing Europe tracker provides an overview of the state of relations between the United Kingdom and the European Union. The first edition, which covers January to March 2023, highlights the thawing in relations between the UK and the EU that has taken place during this period in the context of the agreement of the Windsor Framework in late February 2023. Released quarterly, the UK-EU relations tracker will assess relations between the UK and EU as well as relationships between the UK and EU member states. It will also highlight developments in British politics which may affect the UK-EU relationship, and internal dynamics within the EU that might shape its approach to the relationship with the United Kingdom.
Topic:
International Relations, Politics, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

15. UK-EU regulatory divergence tracker: sixth edition

Author:
UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
UK in a Changing Europe’s series of regulatory divergence trackers provide an overview of where and how the UK has used its newfound regulatory freedoms to diverge from EU regulation. It identifies and analyses the most significant cases of divergence between the UK and EU which have taken place since Brexit. It explains what the changes are, what impact they are having, and likely further consequences. This is the sixth edition of the divergence tracker, covering developments since October 2022. There are six cases of active divergence (where the UK or some part of it changes its rules), 13 of passive divergence (where the EU changes its rules and the UK, or some part of it, does not follow), two of active alignment (where the UK and EU take the same regulatory steps in parallel), and five of delayed divergence (where either side postpones an upcoming case of divergence). This edition of the tracker finds that the UK has engaged in less active divergence over the past quarter. This is due in part to political instability, but also to Prime Minister Sunak’s emphasis on calming the markets and projecting a wider sense of political stability. The new administration has signalled its ambition to reform EU legislation, though in a more targeted manner than under the two preceding premierships.
Topic:
European Union, Regulation, Brexit, and Divergence
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

16. Where next? The future of the UK-EU relationship

Author:
UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
Six and a half years since the Brexit referendum, UK relations with the EU have still not settled into a coherent and consistent pattern. Partly, this is because the process of leaving itself took so long. Partly, too, because there is much still to resolve, not least whether the treaties signed will be fully applied. This report examines the contours of that relationship. It assesses both where we have got to and how the relationship might evolve. The reports sets out the state of play on trade, migration, public opinion, as well as the various party positions on the relationship. It also highlights the deadlines and decisions on the horizon in a number of areas, such as financial services, electric vehicles and fisheries. Finally, it examines the ways in which the TCA could be deepened, and steps that might be taken beyond the TCA – both unilaterally and through increased cooperation with the EU – concluding that changes to the relationship are likely to be slow and incremental.
Topic:
International Relations, Migration, Treaties and Agreements, Public Opinion, European Union, Economy, and Trade
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

17. Transatlantic Trends 2023: Public Opinion in a Shifting Global Order

Author:
Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer, Martin Quencez, and Gusine Weber
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Transatlantic Trends 2023 presents the results of representative surveys conducted in 14 countries on both sides of the Atlantic: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain, Sweden, Türkiye, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Divided into five chapters, this report assesses public opinion on contemporary structural issues impacting the world order, transatlantic relations, security and defense, China, and global challenges.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, European Union, Democracy, Geopolitics, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:
China, United Kingdom, Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, France, Poland, Germany, Global Focus, and United States of America

18. Germany and the UK: Perspectives for Deepening the Bilateral Dialogue on Development Policy

Author:
Niels Keijzer and Ina Friesen
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
Germany and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (UK) are the second- and fourth-largest providers of official development assistance (ODA) worldwide and are key actors in driving international policy discussions on global development in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the G7, the G20 and other key groupings and platforms. The development policies of both countries witnessed important convergence and detailed cooperation during the first decade of this millennium – a period when Western countries understood development cooperation as a source of considerable soft power, which was demonstrated in rising budgets and like-minded policy directions. The austerity policies that followed the global economic and financial crisis, and the UK’s decision to leave the European Union (EU) in 2016, have challenged the bilateral relationship in the development policy area between Germany and the UK. The UK’s departure from the EU has reduced the number of joint interactions and corresponding opportunities for identifying cooperation initiatives. Halfway through the period envisaged for the completion of the 2030 Agenda, both countries are adjusting their development policies, seeking to determine their future European roles and global development ambitions, but they remain key partners in global development. Both the UK and Germany have recently revised or are in the process of preparing development policy strategies as part of their integrated foreign policies – a reflection process which in recent months has been challenged to adjust to the implications of the war in Ukraine. The case remains strong for regular exchanges and cooperation on development policy between both countries, including by intensifying dialogues and resuming formal secondments between the FCDO and the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ). Two areas in particular offer good prospects. First of all, the UK and Germany should closely work together to deliver on the current G7 Presidency agenda – including the key focus on infrastructure investment, as initiated during last year’s UK Presidency. Other key opportunities for cooperation include gender and climate action, as well as the provision of global public goods. Secondly, Germany and the UK should seek to engage in and harness the role of the OECD as a provider of key standards for international development policy and as an important forum for peer learning. As key providers of global development finance, the legitimacy of its reporting system is essential to both countries’ influence and contribution to global development.
Topic:
Development, Bilateral Relations, European Union, Development Assistance, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and Germany

19. El Papel de un Reino Unido Post-brexit y su Nuevo Rol en el Africa Subsahariana

Author:
Juan Ramón Alvarez Cobelas
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
Los políticos británicos del Reino Unido tras el ajustado triunfo en el Brexit prometieron a su opinión pública y a los dirigentes africanos que les quisieron oir, que una vez liberados del yugo político-económico que imponía la Unión Europea, las relaciones entre el mismo Reino Unido y los Estados africanos se abriría una nueva era de prosperidad mutua entre el mismo Reino Unido y el África subsahariana hasta el punto de convertirse en unas relaciones de igual a igual .El artículo trata de demostrar que ha ocurrido justamente lo contrario. El artículo examina los diferentes instrumentos de “cooperación” bien unilaterales, bien colectivos, por ejemplo, el “Compact with Africa, para llegar a la conclusión que los británcos perpetúan un cierto neocolonialismo maquillado.
Topic:
European Union, Brexit, and Colonialism
Political Geography:
Africa, United Kingdom, and Sub-Saharan Africa

20. África: Competencia y sustitución en un entorno estratégico de rivalidad. Introducción al número especial

Author:
María Ángeles Alaminos and Antonio Marquina
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
Este número especial de la Revista UNISCI se centra en la rivalidad creciente entre Estados existente en África y pretende ofrecer una visión comprehensiva del papel de distintos actores internacionales estatales en el continente africano, abarcando tanto el rol de las antiguas potencias coloniales, como la expansión creciente de China y el auge de la presencia e intervención de nuevos actores estatales con intereses políticos y económicos en el continente.
Topic:
European Union, State Actors, Rivalry, and Competition
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, China, United Kingdom, Europe, Middle East, France, Latin America, and United States of America

21. Post-Brexit EU–UK cooperation on migration and asylum: How to live apart, together

Author:
Alberto-Horst Neidhardt
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
The UK’s withdrawal from the EU has created a policy, legal and operational vacuum in migration and asylum matters which undermines the interests of both sides. There is no more binding framework which defines responsibility for asylum seekers and facilitates transfers between the EU and the UK. Brexit also made it harder to devise and implement effective anti-smuggling strategies with European partners. Despite these gaps, a post-Brexit cooperation agreement is not on the horizon, with structural reforms pursued by each side reflecting conflicting priorities and a growing political disconnect. Following the 2020 proposals of the New Pact on Migration and Asylum, EU member states are still negotiating a mandatory responsibility-sharing mechanism. Meanwhile, in April 2022, the UK overhauled its asylum and immigration law, undercutting safeguards for asylum seekers reaching the country irregularly. The same month, the UK government signed a deal with Rwanda to deport all asylum seekers arriving via the Channel – a move even the European Commission has criticised. Recent post-Brexit tensions over other policy areas, most prominently the Northern Ireland Protocol, have reduced mutual trust to a historic minimum. This makes an ambitious and comprehensive agreement over asylum and migration matters an unlikely prospect for the time being. Yet, as neighbours, the EU and the UK will continue to depend on each other to pursue their respective policy objectives in migration and asylum. So, despite living separately and facing numerous unresolved tensions, the EU and the UK can and should pursue a post-Brexit cooperation framework in these matters. Otherwise, they will both be worse off. As a first step, the two sides should focus on rebuilding trust. This can be achieved by pursuing less contentious goals within immediate reach, such as enhanced anti-smuggling efforts, while also diffusing political tensions across the board. Once an atmosphere of sincere cooperation is restored, as a second step, the EU and the UK should define a broader and more ambitious partnership. Safe and legal channels from the EU to the UK should be re-established. At the same time, equitable solutions for facilitating the return of third-country nationals from the UK to the EU, in full respect of procedural safeguards, should also be found. Although reciprocity would have to be at the heart of this new arrangement, the EU and the UK should go beyond a transactional approach, particularly by strengthening protection pathways and burden-sharing solutions, including with third countries, in line with their international commitments. The European Commission should take the lead in the negotiation of a post-Brexit EU–UK cooperation framework. This would allow the EU to speak with one voice and pursue clear and coherent objectives across the different policy areas concerned. The newly established EU–UK Parliamentary Partnership Assembly should also be involved in the negotiations, helping to democratise the process and achieve a more balanced relationship in the interests of both sides.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Migration, European Union, Brexit, and Asylum
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

22. UK-EU regulatory divergence tracker: third edition

Author:
Joël Reland, Jill Rutter, and Anand Menon
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
This is the third edition of the UK in a Changing Europe’s UK-EU regulatory divergence tracker, covering 27 cases of divergence since December 2021. There are fourteen cases of active divergence (where the UK – or some part of it – takes steps to move away from retained EU law), ten of passive divergence (where the EU legislates and the UK – or some part – does not follow), and three of procedural divergence (where the UK has to introduce new systems to manage policy absent substantive divergence). There are also eleven cases with an additional ‘internal impact’ label, to indicate where UK-EU divergence is leading either to divergence in regulation between different parts of the UK, or has some other impact on the operation of relations between the four UK governments.
Topic:
European Union, Regulation, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

23. Post-Brexit imports, supply chains, and the effect on consumer prices

Author:
Jan David Bakker, Nikhil Datta, Josh de Lyon, Luisa Opitz, and Dilan Yang
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
This report documents the decrease in imports and shows how the patterns of imports vary across sectors following the UK’s departure from the Single Market and Customs Unit at the end of 2020. The authors, Jan David Bakker, Nikhil Datta, Josh De Lyon, Luisa Opitz, and Dilan Yang, focus on comparisons between imports from the EU and imports from non-EU countries. Some products, such as fats, oils, and waxes, experienced a sizeable decrease in trade volumes with EU countries compared to those of non-EU countries in January 2021. Other products, such as minerals, experienced minimal deviation in imports from the EU versus non-EU. We also document that the timing of import changes varies across products: in some cases, the deviation occurs pre-TCA, and there is some evidence of stockpiling; in other cases, the changes only occur post-TCA, and can be either short term or persistent. The fall in imports from the EU will affect the UK economy through its impact on supply chains. Two-thirds of international trade is in products used as inputs to production. We show that imports from the EU fell for products that are used as inputs to production in many industries in the UK. For some sectors such as agriculture, fishing, and car manufacturing, there is evidence that imported inputs began to be sourced from non-EU countries pre-TCA. For others, including vegetable oil, animal fats, prepared animal feeds, and pharmaceuticals, the adjustments occurred post-TCA. Evidence suggests that increased access to intermediate inputs can boost productivity, so a reversal is likely to cause a fall in productivity. Imports also provide cheaper goods to consumers, as well as a wider variety of choice. Focussing on food products, we show that the drop in imports after Brexit caused an increase in prices. Products that were more heavily reliant on imports from the EU increased in price following the election of Boris Johnson in 2019, pre-TCA and then increased further post-TCA. This report therefore shows that changes in imports of goods from the EU have affected UK firms’ supply chains. Part of this change is driven by the adjustment costs incurred as part of the new trading relationship and is likely to be short term, but another part is likely to reflect a long-term increase in the cost of inputs from the EU, which make up a sizable contribution of total imports. This could have a knock-on effect for consumers who will face higher prices, and for workers whose jobs will be affected by adjustments in the supply chain.
Topic:
European Union, Brexit, Trade, Imports, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

24. The state of the European Union

Author:
Anand Menon and Simon Usherwood
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
In ‘The State of the European Union’, some of the most respected scholars working on the EU provide their analysis of its current state, looking, in turn, at member states, at the EU institutions, at a number of policy areas and cross-cutting political themes and at EU relations with key external partners. This is a crucial moment in the history of the European Union. It has taken on new responsibilities in the face of new challenges and now must deliver, whilst simultaneously managing deep and potentially debilitating divisions between member states. There is all to play for.
Topic:
International Relations, European Union, Regional Integration, and Institutions
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

25. UK-EU regulatory divergence tracker: fourth edition

Author:
UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
UK in a Changing Europe’s series of regulatory divergence trackers provide an overview of where and how the UK has used its newfound regulatory freedoms to diverge from EU regulation. It identifies and analyses the most significant cases of divergence between the UK and EU which have taken place since Brexit. It explains what the changes are, what impact they are having, and likely further consequences. This is the fourth edition of the tracker, covering changes which have taken place since March 2022.
Topic:
European Union, Regulation, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

26. The Northern Ireland Protocol Bill: context and consequences

Author:
Catherine Barnard, Joelle Grogan, Katy Hayward, Andrew McCormick, and Jill Rutter
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
The UK government introduced a piece of primary legislation, the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill, in response to concerns over the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland. This report explains some of the context to the Bill, the conditions in which it has emerged and its potential ramifications for Northern Ireland, the UK, the EU, and UK-EU relations. It also considers a number of ways in which the stand-off over the Protocol might be resolved. The report brings together the insights of several experts: Catherine Barnard (University of Cambridge, and UKICE), Joelle Grogan (UKICE), Katy Hayward (Queen’s University Belfast), Andrew McCormick (formerly lead official on Brexit for the Northern Ireland Executive) and Jill Rutter (UKICE).
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Constitution, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and Northern Ireland

27. UK-EU regulatory divergence tracker: fifth edition

Author:
UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
UK in a Changing Europe’s series of regulatory divergence trackers provide an overview of where and how the UK has used its newfound regulatory freedoms to diverge from EU regulation. It identifies and analyses the most significant cases of divergence between the UK and EU which have taken place since Brexit. It explains what the changes are, what impact they are having, and likely further consequences. This is the fifth edition of the tracker, covering changes which have taken place since May 2022. It finds there are 13 cases of active divergence (where the UK or some part of it changes its rules), nine of passive divergence (where the EU changes its rules and the UK does not follow), and three of procedural divergence (changes in the systems for managing pre-existing divergence). In addition, there are two cases of a new category – legal action – where the actions of one side result in the other initiating a legal dispute.
Topic:
European Union, Regulation, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

28. A beginner’s guide to the European Union

Author:
UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
UK in a Changing Europe is launching a new series of ‘beginner’s guides’ – quick, easy guides to the most pressing issues, important institutions and divisive debates in politics and society today. We’re kicking off our series with a guide to the European Union, an institution encompassing around 47,000 staff, seven institutions, over thirty agencies, and a population of almost 450 million. It’s pretty complicated, to say the least. But here we have tried to set out ​in an accessible and straightforward way what the EU is and how it came to be, what its institutions are and what they do, the EU budget, and how the EU makes and enforces laws and regulations. This guide is perfect for those who are learning about European institutions and multilevel governance for the first time during their politics A-level. ​It will also be useful for undergraduate students beginning their studies in law, politics and economics who want to know more about how the EU interacts with their chosen subject area, or seasoned professionals who just want a quick reminder on how member states and European bodies cooperate on key policy areas.
Topic:
Governance, European Union, and Institutions
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

29. Manufacturing after Brexit

Author:
David Bailey and Ivan Rajic
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
In mid-2020, UK in a Changing Europe published its report on the effects of Brexit on UK manufacturing, and the likely effects after the end of the transition period. The present report is an updated view of where UK manufacturing stands after Brexit. The report finds: The Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) helped avoid tariff barriers. However, non-tariff barriers have returned, and the end of the transition period has brought adverse impacts for UK manufacturing. The TCA does not fully replace the frictionless trade and market integration that existed before it. The main adverse effects have been: administrative barriers to trade (e.g. customs formalities, proving rules-of-origin requirements) disruptions to labour flows, both affecting certain manufacturing sectors directly (e.g. food and drinks) and indirectly harming manufacturing by damaging service sectors (e.g. logistics) that support it. The adverse impacts are for now mainly showing through reduced exports and imports to and from the EU (around 15% less for both, as compared to a no-Brexit scenario), and through some production disruptions. The ongoing conflicts around Northern Ireland probably represent the biggest risk to UK-EU relations, with the potential to affect the entire TCA in case they escalate. Potential benefits from Brexit have yet to be felt: – There has been some redirection of exports towards non-EU countries, but this has not compensated for the reduction in trade with the EU. The UK has signed only two truly new trade agreements, with New Zealand and Australia, the former still only ‘in principle’. Both countries account for a small fraction of total UK trade, and the expected benefits of the trade agreements with them are minor. Trade negotiations with the US are currently stalled. Whether there is more progress on the trade front in the future remains to be seen. If there is more regulatory divergence from the EU going forward, it will become possible to see whether it will bring benefits or disruptions to UK manufacturers. Any benefits that may potentially arise out of Brexit will not happen automatically. The UK needs an active, integrated, and well-funded industrial policy, within a stronger devolution framework, if UK manufacturing is to benefit from future growth opportunities. This is especially the case in the context of net zero, industry 4.0 and levelling up. The impact of Brexit on manufacturing is likely to be most profound in regions in the north and midlands. That in turn will make levelling up more challenging.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Economy, Brexit, Manufacturing, and Trade
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

30. Doing things differently? Policy after Brexit

Author:
UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
Brexit is done, but what does it mean? Doing things differently? Policy after Brexit brings together a number experts in their respective fields to investigate how policy and policymaking have changed in a range of sectors. We asked them to consider how changes so far compare to what was promised before Brexit, and to analyse what changes lie ahead and what their impact might be. Their contributions are divided into three sections: first, those policy areas (trade, immigration, agriculture, fisheries and subsidies) where Brexit compelled the UK to put in place alternative policies. Second, those retaining significant amounts of EU law where the government could think seriously about divergence (financial services, procurement, taxation, consumer protection, environmental policy, energy policy and aviation). A final section considers new or emergent sectors in which both the UK and EU are looking to dip their regulatory toes (climate change and net zero, data and digital, autonomous vehicles and bioscience).
Topic:
Agriculture, Immigration, European Union, Regulation, Brexit, Trade, Fishing, Subsidies, and Policymaking
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

31. An EU border across Britain: Scotland’s borders after independence

Author:
Katy Hayward and Nicola McEwen
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
This report, An EU border across Britain: Scotland’s borders after independence, considers the prospect of an independent Scotland within the European Union, not as a prediction, but to illustrate how Brexit has profoundly changed the context in which independence is contested and could be realised. If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, the Anglo-Scottish border would become not just an international border between Scotland and what remains of the UK, but a new land border between the EU and the UK. Some of the crossborder arrangements for an independent Scotland that had been envisaged in the 2014 referendum would no longer be possible as a result of the UK’s departure from the EU. Because we know what is required by the EU at its external borders, it is possible to outline the border-related ramifications for an independent Scotland with EU membership. Such ramifications centre upon the land border with its closest neighbour.
Topic:
Sovereignty, European Union, Brexit, Borders, Independence, and Referendum
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and Scotland

32. Shared fortunes: Why Britain, the European Union, and Africa need one another

Author:
Nicholas Westcott
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Britain and Africa are deeply connected through their history and people as much as through trade, investment, aid, and culture. They can both benefit greatly from this relationship – especially in areas where their interests converge, including economic development, security, education, and climate. But political forces on both sides could push them apart – even as, increasingly, Britain needs Africa more than Africa needs Britain. The British government and the EU need to understand the relationship in its geostrategic context – the influence of China, Russia, Gulf states, and others affects African countries’ views on their place in the world. A closer and more responsive relationship between Britain, Africa, and the EU would have significant benefits for all sides – partly because each is weaker individually than they are together, and because Britain still has strengths that are most useful in cooperation with others. But this will only be possible if the British government significantly changes its approach to Europe as well as to Africa.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, Investment, and Trade
Political Geography:
Africa, United Kingdom, and Europe

33. Why the Ukraine crisis should push the UK and EU into a tighter embrace on security policy

Author:
Steven Blockmans
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
One of the costs of Brexit is the weakened ability of both the UK and the EU to shape a strong joint response to Russia’s threats to pan-European security. In the standoff over Ukraine, the need for close cross-Channel cooperation is particularly acute for any effective sanctions package negotiated with the US. Yet, post-Brexit relations between the UK and the EU are currently governed by a narrow Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) which does not include a designated chapter on political dialogue and that, barring a handful of exceptions, does not contain any provisions on cooperation on foreign and security matters. Fortunately, the preparatory work undertaken to reach the bilateral accord contains the answer to the question on how trust between the parties can be regained through procedural means. This policy brief highlights the embers of the Brexit bonfire that might be raked up to rekindle the flame of dialogue and cooperation between the UK and the EU in foreign affairs and security policy.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Sanctions, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and Ukraine

34. Brexit and beyond

Author:
Anand Menon
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
Brexit is done. The formal negotiations are over — even though the Trade and Cooperation Agreement paves the way to many further negotiations between the UK and the EU. Our understanding of what Brexit does mean in practice is just beginning. Now the UK is finally able to embark on its new course, we believe that the need for social science to play a role in informing public and political debates is as great if not greater than ever. The contributions that follow underline the scale and scope of the agenda that confronts the United Kingdom. It is meant both as a guide to the issues that will loom large of the months and years to come and as a signal that we intend to deploy the best social science research in order to understand and address them.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Economy, and Society
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

35. Anand Menon: Brexit and beyond report

Author:
Anand Menon
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
Professor Anand Menon explains the need for social science to play a role in informing public and political debates is as great if not greater than ever, now that the UK is embarking on a new course after Brexit.
Topic:
European Union, Brexit, and Trade
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

36. The Franco-German Rivarly in the Post-Brexit Europe

Author:
Cagatay Ozdemir
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
A significant foundation of European stability after World War II has been the balance of power between the United Kingdom (UK), France, and Germany. The UK’s accession to the European Communities (EC) in 1973 had carried that ‘balance’ into the EC’s institutional framework. In this regard, the UK’s withdrawal from EU structures may lead to an important political and financial vacuum at the center of the Union. In the wake of Brexit, indications of anxiety and concerns about power imbalances have emerged around the question of which country or counties will steer the Union. There exit fresh post-Brexit assessments that indicate that the UK’s departure from the EU may catalyze the differences between Germany and France. This paper will discuss three essential scenarios for the EU’s political and economic future direction, namely, French leadership, German leadership, and a Franco-German partnership, for the post-Brexit period.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Hegemony, European Union, Political stability, Brexit, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, France, and Germany

37. COVID-19 credit support programs in Europe’s five largest economies

Author:
Julia Anderson, Francesco Papadia, and Nicolas Véron
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
n 2020, European governments mitigated the economic impact of COVID-19 lockdowns and other pandemic-fighting programs through a host of initiatives, including efforts to support credit, such as guarantees for bank loans, particularly to small and medium-sized enterprises. This paper presents detailed information about these national credit support programs in the largest national economies of the European Union (France, Germany, Italy, and Spain) and the United Kingdom. The information was collected through thorough examination of published material and extended exchanges with national authorities and financial sector participants. The analysis focuses on (1) how countries positioned themselves on the many tradeoffs that emerged in designing and implementing the programs; and (2) what explains differences in usage across countries and its leveling off everywhere in the second half of 2020.
Topic:
Government, European Union, Finance, Fiscal Policy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

38. The Impact of the Repression in Xinjiang on China’s Relations with Other Countries

Author:
Marcin Przychodniak
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The policy of repression of Uyghurs in Xinjiang has become a significant element of criticism of China in the world. In March this year, the EU, U.S., Canada, and the United Kingdom imposed sanctions on China over the matter. Moreover, the Netherlands, the U.S. and Canada described China’s actions as genocide. For China, however, its actions involving Uyghurs are a key element of domestic politics, which is why it presents accusations as disinformation. It has imposed counter sanctions, including on the EU, and their wide scope indicates that for China, Xinjiang is more important than, for example, the ratification of the Comprehensive Investment Agreement (CAI) with the EU.
Topic:
International Relations, Genocide, Human Rights, European Union, and Uyghurs
Political Geography:
China, United Kingdom, Europe, Canada, Asia, Netherlands, United States of America, and Xinjiang

39. The day after: The conflicting implications of Brexit

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Britain has effectively left the EU after long and tiresome negotiations. But the implications of Brexit have not transpired completely as the aftershocks may be felt within Britain itself in the form of increased desire for independence in Scotland; and London may fail to establish trade agreements that can compensate for its exit from the EU.
Topic:
European Union, Economy, Brexit, and Trade
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and Scotland

40. Europe’s Missile Defence and Italy: Capabilities and Cooperation

Author:
Alessandro Marrone and Karolina Muti
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Europe’s missile defence is structurally linked to NATO deterrence and defence architecture, and it has to face both a worsened international security environment and an accelerating, worldwide technological innovation. Russia and China are heavily investing in new hypersonic systems which dramatically decrease the time needed to reach the target by flying mostly within the atmosphere. The US remains a global leader in the development and deployment of missile defence capabilities, including the Aegis systems which represent the cornerstone of NATO integrate air and missile defence covering the Old Continent. European countries are increasingly collaborating within the EU framework on the related capability development, primarily via the TWISTER project under the Permanent Structured Cooperation (PeSCo). Being exposed to missile threats from Middle East and North Africa and participating to allied nuclear sharing, Italy has a primary interest in upgrading its military capabilities through PeSCo, maintaining them fully integrated within NATO, and involving the national defence industry in cutting-edge procurement programmes.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Science and Technology, and European Union
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, Turkey, France, Poland, Germany, Italy, North America, and United States of America

41. The AUKUS agreement, what repercussions for the European Union?

Author:
Elie Perot
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
On 15 September, Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States announced the formation of a partnership called "AUKUS", with the aim, among other things, of providing the Australian Navy with nuclear-powered submarines over the next few decades. This trilateral agreement, presented by US President Joe Biden as responding to "the imperative of ensuring peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific over the long term", serves the unstated but obvious purpose of counterbalancing an increasingly powerful, and sometimes aggressive, China in its neighbourhood and on the international scene. As such, the AUKUS agreement is not in itself fundamentally opposed to the objectives and interests of the European Union and, in particular, of France - the Member State that had been until now most strongly engaged in the Indo-Pacific in response to the Chinese challenge. Yet the announcement of the trilateral partnership between Canberra, Washington and London led to a particularly severe crisis with Paris, with France losing a major deal it had had with Australia since 2016 for the supply of 12 conventionally powered (dieselelectric) submarines. With the telephone exchange between Presidents Joe Biden and Emmanuel Macron on 22 September, during which it was acknowledged that "the situation would have benefitted from open consultations among allies on matters of strategic interest to France and our European partners", it is possible that the worst of this diplomatic crisis is now over. The question now is whether this sequence, which at first sight was played out at the bilateral level between France and the three AUKUS states, could have wider and longer-term repercussions at the EU level. With this in mind, this paper first proposes to understand the new AUKUS agreement in its proper perspective, since above all it signifies a reinforcement of military industrial cooperation between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States rather than a true diplomatic revolution with regard to China. The paper then looks at the French response to this new partnership, emphasising that it was first and foremost the secrecy surrounding the formation of AUKUS, and not so much the resulting breach of the Franco-Australian submarine contract, that led to such high levels of diplomatic tension. Finally, this paper seeks to assess the extent to which France succeeded in bringing this crisis to the European level, with what consequences, but also what limitations.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, European Union, and Partnerships
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and Australia

42. The post-Brexit EU-UK relationship: an opportunity or challenge for cyber security?

Author:
Ellie Templeton and Robert Dewar
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
With multiple post-Brexit pathways that could still be pursued following the recent adoption of the new security agreements, the EU-UK cyber security relationship is still evolving. Value must be placed on collaboration to tackle shared cyber threats, the role EU institutions play in bringing cyber security actors together, and Britain’s former contribution to European security. These factors strongly indicate that, although new opportunities may present themselves, there will likely be irreversible losses for collective cyber resilience due to Brexit. In order to work towards a new, valuable relationship model, it is recommended that both the EU and UK uphold professional, transparent and non- political security cooperation going forward, whilst remaining open to flexible operational support in the unpredictable and ever-changing cyber threat landscape. Ultimately, within an international system affected by “instability, insecurity and uncertainty”,61 it remains to be seen what opportunities and challenges arise, and if the resulting relationship, whether based on one specific pathway or a combination of all three, could constitute an effective EU relationship model for non-EU entities in the cyber security field.
Topic:
Security, Regional Cooperation, European Union, Cybersecurity, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

43. Dealing with the Neighbours: The case for an affiliate membership of the European Union and a new Security Council

Author:
Andrew Duff
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
Brexit is proving to be even more troublesome than expected, giving rise to a gradual softening of British public opinion towards the EU. Any future UK government is likely to want to renegotiate parts of the separation deal that Boris Johnson struck with the EU. Reconciliation between Britain and Europe will take time and need careful calibration, however. The EU should prepare for this constructively and use the opportunity of a British renegotiation to review all its other association agreements - none of which are without defect. The question of governance lies at the heart of the problems which impair the EU’s relations with its neighbours. The EEA and Swiss arrangements are in any case due for overhaul and upgrading. The EU’s traditional enlargement policy to the east and south has foundered, and it would be better if this were admitted openly. Not only are candidate countries unable to meet the demands of membership, but the EU itself is too weak to take on the burden of new members. Instead, a new category of affiliate membership should be written into the EU treaties. Affiliation should allow the EU to develop close economic and cultural partnerships with its neighbours in a democratic fashion. Affiliate states would enjoy greater access to the EU institutions than is permitted under any of the current association agreements. Affiliate membership would also be available as an option for any current EU member state which, like the UK, chose not to adhere to the goal of an ever closer union. Such differentiated integration of the wider Europe will require the EU to build stronger federal government at the centre. The new structure should also be underpinned by the establishment of a European Security Council combining EU member and affiliate states with NATO — including Canada and the US — in regular strategic and operational decisions to protect Western security. The French presidency in the first half of 2022 should take the necessary first steps. The Conference on the Future of Europe might consider these proposals.
Topic:
Security, Governance, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

44. Brexit and Beyond: the union

Author:
UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
Tensions about the relationships between the UK’s component parts have never been too far from the surface during the political crisis triggered by Brexit. The question of what happens to powers that were formerly exercised at the EU level, but which fall within devolved competence, has been a recurrent source of disagreement between the UK Government and the devolved administrations. This mini report is for those who want to dig deep on Brexit and the union.
Topic:
European Union, Brexit, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

45. Brexit and Beyond: politics

Author:
UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
How politics in the UK develops over the coming months and years will depend at least in part on the degree to which its focus moves on from Brexit. This mini report on politics taken from our Brexit and Beyond report makes clear, politics will be about far more than inter party competition.
Topic:
European Union, Brexit, Domestic Politics, Political Parties, and Competition
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

46. Brexit and Beyond: economy

Author:
UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
Brexit is done. The formal negotiations are over — even though the Trade and Cooperation Agreement paves the way to many further negotiations between the UK and the EU. Our understanding of what Brexit does mean in practice is just beginning. This mini report is for those who want to dig deep on Brexit and its consequences for the economy, from its impact upon inequality, employment, and public finances, to future prospects for British trade outside of the EU.
Topic:
European Union, Employment, Inequality, Economy, Brexit, Trade, and Public Finance
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

47. Freeports

Author:
Catherine Barnard
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
Freeports will be the centrepiece of the Budget, presented as a concrete sign, especially to ‘left behind’ communities, both of the benefits of Brexit and the Government’s commitment to the ‘levelling up’ agenda. For those looking to create ‘Global Britain’, freeports send out a message: we’re open for business. In this report, Deputy Director Professor Catherine Barnard, Cambridge University examines both the rationale for them and the existing evidence on them. The report concludes that freeports are unlikely to be a magic bullet.
Topic:
Budget, European Union, Business, Brexit, and Freeports
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

48. Brexit and Beyond: government, law and external relations

Author:
UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
Brexit is done. The formal negotiations are over — even though the Trade and Cooperation Agreement paves the way to many further negotiations between the UK and the EU. Our understanding of what Brexit does mean in practice is just beginning. This mini report is for those who want to dig deep on Brexit and its impact upon British governance and the constitutional makeup of the UK, and what Britain’s place in the world is set to look like outside of the European Union. This mini report is taken from the Brexit and Beyond report.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, Governance, Law, European Union, Constitution, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

49. Whitehall in Brussels: the UK permanent representation to the EU

Author:
Matthew Bevington
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
The UK has left the European Union but the two sides, as neighbours, partners and competitors, will need to continue to work with each other. How this happens matters. The report author, Matt Bevington, looks at how the UK interacted with the EU in the past, and what role the UK mission might play in those interactions going forward.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, European Union, Brexit, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

50. The EU Settlement Scheme

Author:
Catherine Barnard and Fiona Costello
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
The EU Settlement Scheme (EUSS) allows EU nationals who arrived by 31 December 2020 (and some others) to protect their rights to live and work in the UK. The aim of this report is to explain the scheme, its background, how it works, who has applied, who may not have, and the lessons we have learned so far.
Topic:
Border Control, European Union, Citizenship, and Immigration Policy
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe