Political Geography: Turkey / Publication Year: within 10 Years

1. Türkiye as a Cusp State: Conceptualization and Implementation

Author:: Meliha Benli Altunışık
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: This article revisits the concept of the “Cusp State” with a specific focus on Türkiye, aiming to deepen both its theoretical and empirical relevance. It begins by re-examining the definitional foundations of the concept, which refers to states situated at the intersection of regional and global dynamics, exhibiting hybrid characteristics and adaptive foreign policy behaviors. The article argues that the Cusp State framework offers a valuable lens for analyzing Türkiye’s foreign policy, particularly due to its blend of ideational and material factors and its geostrategic positioning. The analysis explores how Türkiye navigates its cuspness by employing region-building strategies, enhancing connectivity, and repositioning itself within global hierarchies. The article also investigates the limitations and contradictions inherent in these strategies, including domestic-international linkages, geopolitical constraints, and normative tensions. In doing so, it demonstrates that Türkiye's trajectory exemplifies the dynamic nature of cuspness—not merely as a structural condition but as a set of evolving practices shaped by agency and context. Ultimately, the article contributes to the literature by refining the Cusp State concept and offering empirical insights into Türkiye’s foreign policy conduct in a rapidly shifting international environment.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Regionalism, and Connectivity
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

2. From Bridge to Hinge: Rapprochement-Estrangement Pendulum of Turkish Foreign Policy

Author:: Mesut Özcan
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: The main motivation of this paper is to uncover the logic underlying the seemingly inconsistent and erratic foreign policy behavior of countries like Turkey, which are surrounded by different subsystems. The strategic cultures of the surrounding subsystems impose different modes of behavior on borderlands and create attract-repel elements for them. The responses to such elements appear as policies of rapprochement and estrangement, representing closer or cooling relations. Therefore, as part of the attract-repel dynamic, foreign policy behavior appears to oscillate between conflicting extremes. Consequently, the borderland position presents a combination of challenges and opportunities, depending on the comprehensive national power. It can be either reduced to a buffer zone caught between different and imposing entities, or transformed into a hinge state that can change regional or global balances. The underlying logic and ultimate goal of such policy swings, which may appear contradictory and erratic at times, is to become a hinge state in this process by capitalizing on advantages and opportunities, avoiding drawbacks and gaining more power at each step. In this process, Turkey appears as a borderland country that keeps moving between pivotal and linchpin positions, trying to confirm her linchpin status while aspiring to become a hinge state.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Borders, Rapprochement, and Strategic Autonomy
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

3. Perception and Continuity: Active Non-Alignment in Turkish Foreign Policy

Author:: Burak Çakirca
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: This study analyses Turkish foreign policy between 2010 and 2025, asking whether this period marks a strategic rupture or reflects continuity with the long-standing Westernisation trajectory. Employing the emerging framework of Active Non-Alignment (ANA), the study examines how Turkey’s redefinition of strategic interests and alignments reflects shifting global and regional dynamics. The findings suggest that while institutional and ontological ties to the West persist, Turkish foreign policy demonstrates a perceptual shift characterised by strategic autonomy, diversified partnerships, and issue-based pragmatism. By applying ANA to this evolving policy orientation, the study offers both a reinterpretation of Turkish foreign policy continuity and a theoretical contribution to the emerging literature on alternative alignment strategies in global politics.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Partnerships, Diversification, Strategic Autonomy, Pragmatism, Continuity, and Westernization
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

4. A pivot or a saga? How Turkish foreign policy is torn between domestic pressures and economic needs

Author:: Başak Alpan
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: The EU must take proactive steps to address longstanding issues and cultivate a more trust-based and cooperative relationship with Turkey. Bilateral relations could be rejuvenated by addressing key issues such as democratic reforms, visa liberalisation, civil society engagement and the ongoing dispute over Cyprus. This CEPS Explainer explores the recent orientation of the Turkish foreign policy, focusing on its historical Western orientation and recent efforts to achieve ‘strategic autonomy’ by scrutinising the results of the fieldwork undertaken through the CATS Network project. Interviews conducted in Ankara, Istanbul and Brussels show that while Turkish policymakers aim to diversify the country’s foreign policy by forging security and economic partnerships with non-Western actors, such as the BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), China and Russia, its institutional and ideological foundation remains Western-oriented. Integrating Turkey into European security alignments, such as the SAFE framework, and modernising the Turkey-EU customs union would help to strengthen bilateral ties. Additionally, the EU should substantiate the people-to-people contact approach to rebuild trust and encourage further cooperation.
Topic:: European Union, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Civil Society, Partnerships, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Europe

5. Conceptualizing Compartmentalization in International Relations: The Case of Turkish Foreign Policy

Author:: Şaban Kardaş and Bayram Sinkaya
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: How do we conceptualize compartmentalization as a foreign policy behavior? This paper will argue that compartmentalization is a practical and cognitive approach to foreign policy decision-making and behavior at times of contradictory pressures arising from domestic or external realities, when actors need to make stark choices between different alternatives. Having delineated the boundaries of this concept, the article will engage in an extensive review of the literature employing the concept of compartmentalization in the study of Turkish foreign policy. It will trace how Turkish foreign policy conduct increasingly adopted this behavior in at least two distinct forms: issue-based and actor-based. The paper will argue that the widening scope of this practical-cognitive behavior is a result of a number of systemic and domestic-state level factors, which are closely related to the evolution of Türkiye’s domestic realities and international positioning against the background of a changing international system. Moreover, the paper will argue that at the individual-ideational level as well, compartmentalization has been part of a set of cognitive priors which affect the Turkish foreign policy makers’ formulation of alternative foreign policy strategies.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, and Compartmentalization
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

6. Turkey–Israel Relations: Strategic Context and Policy Considerations

Author:: Gabi Siboni and Erez Winner
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Between Ankara’s regional ambition, ideological and religious zeal, and economic vulnerability—implications for Israel’s security and diplomacy
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Economy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

7. As Erdogan Tightens His Grip on Syria, What Can Israel Do?

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Following the agreement between the al-Sharaa regime and the Kurds, the consolidation of Turkish influence in Syria presents strategic dilemmas for Israel
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Kurds, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Ahmad al-Sharaa
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Syria

8. Deconstructing Kosovo's relations with Turkiye - Between Reality and Expectations

Author:: Asllan Zenunaj
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: This paper examines the evolution of relations between Kosovo and Türkiye from Kosovo’s declaration of independence in 2008 to 2025, with a specific focus on the security dimension of this partnership. Its central aim is to analyse how Türkiye’s foreign policy tools and priorities toward Kosovo have evolved under the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and how these changes are perceived domestically in Kosovo, particularly in light of Kosovo’s stated Euro-Atlantic aspirations. The analysis reveal change and continuities in Türkiye’s engagement, complementing an early emphasis on historical, religious and cultural narratives associated with “Neo-Ottomanism” to a more pragmatic “Erdoganism”, an interest-driven approach, particularly evident after 2022. The initial engagement under the AKP was heavily heavily influenced by Ahmet Davutoğlu's “Strategic Depth” doctrine, which emphasized soft power, shared heritage, and a “zero problems with neighbors” policy. This included religious diplomacy through institutions like the Diyanet (Presidency of Religious Affairs) and TIKA (Turkish Cooperation and Coordination Agency), which promoted a shared Sunni-Hanafi Islamic identity and renovated Ottoman-era heritage sites. The paper argues this has complimented by a more assertive “Erdoganism”, which combines strategic depth with hard-power tools, particularly economic and defense cooperation, where Türkiye has become a crucial partner in modernizing the Kosovo Security Force through the provision of advanced military hardware and joint industrial projects. Additionally, Türkiye’s command of KFOR in 2023 and 2025 underscores its central position in regional security underlying the strong coordination between the bilateral agreements within the spirit of NATO’s formal structure and coordination with key allies like the United States. The paper also finds out that the Strategic partnership between Türkiye and Kosovo can be seen as exceeding its line between cooperation and interference in Kosovo’s domestic affairs, nevertheless these perceptions often derive from the misconceptions regarding the excessive use of Ankara’s soft-power tools. Henceforth, although Türkiye has sought to shape the country’s cultural narratives and public discourse, leveraging historical memory and kinship ties to project influence within local institutions and communities, there is a notable divergence between public perception and strategic reality. While an overwhelming 91% of Kosovars view Türkiye favorably, strategic allegiance remains firmly with the United States, indicating that popular support is emotive and pragmatic rather than an ideological endorsement of Türkiye’s political model. The paper recommends that Kosovo navigate this complex dynamic by supporting the transition from personalized “brotherhood diplomacy” toward a more structured, transparent, and institutionalized state‑to‑state partnership, one that avoids political interference on either side, remains embedded within NATO‑compatible frameworks, and is clearly communicated as complementary to Kosovo’s Euro‑Atlantic integration. Such an approach would allow Kosovo to maximize the benefits of its partnership with Türkiye while safeguarding its secular, independent, and democratic principles.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Partnerships
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Kosovo, and Balkans

9. Forever the Frenemies of the Middle East? Türkiye’s Regional Relations with Iran, 2002 to 2023

Author:: Cem Savaş
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: This article investigates the puzzle of Türkiye’s fluctuating relations with Iran since the Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power in 2002. Contrary to many scholars’ expectations, the AKP government’s relations with Iran have competition and rivalry rather than just cooperation. Having improved significantly in the early 2000s, the relations became tense following the Arab uprisings and Syria’s civil war. However, the relations between the two countries have included both cooperative and conflictual elements since 2016. This research argues that the most relevant level for analyzing Türkiye’s fluctuating foreign policy strategies toward Iran between 2002 and 2023 is regional. Using the regionalist approaches of Buzan and Wæver’s Regional Security Complex Theory (RSCT) and Lake and Morgan’s theory of regional orders, the article examines how the “local security externalities” of the Middle Eastern regional security complex (RSC) affect Türkiye-Iran regional relations by particularly focusing on speech acts of Turkish high-level foreign policy actors. By acknowledging the multi-layered nature of Middle Eastern politics, this study also considers the role of extra-regional actors and non-state armed groups in Turkish foreign policy attitudes toward Iran.
Topic:: International Relations, AKP, Regional Security, Regional Security Complex Theory (RSCT), Foreign Policy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Iran, Turkey, and Middle East

10. The Logic of Foreign Policy: An Explanatory Model for Strategic Volatility in Turkish Foreign Policy Under the AKP Rule

Author:: Erol Kurubaş
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: The AKP government in Türkiye has been following a foreign policy based on values and discourses rather than power and interests. However, despite the lack of a radical change in international conditions, contrasting approaches in terms of the nature of foreign policy, strategic orientation, foreign relations, and international image have been adopted by the same government over short intervals of time. While a first period was marked by a value-laden transformation, a second was marked by righteous and romantic discourse and actions pointing to more value-based mentality. In a third period, foreign policy was guided by a logic based on a populist and opportunist approach. This paper calls each of these bases that shape foreign policy a different logic of foreign policy. Accordingly, while the logic of the first period was constructed in “the modified base logic” and led to the quest for strategic depth in foreign policy, the logic of the second became “righteous-romantic” and resulted in “strategic instability”. The logic of third, on the other hand, was shaped by its reactive form and led to “strategic uncertainty”. In this way, the paper argues that the strategic volatility in Turkish Foreign Policy can be explained by the elements that constitute the logic of foreign policy and the interactions among them.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, AKP, and Volatility
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

11. Analysis of Van Province’s Migration from Iran by Geographically Weighted Regression Method

Author:: Bahadır Yüzbaşı and Çetin Görür
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: The ability of migrants to adapt to their new environment in a short period of time while establishing a new life is an important factor affecting the welfare of both individuals and societies. The process of adaptation can determine the quality of life of the individual, reflecting the migrant’s ability to adapt socially, economically and culturally to their new environment. Adaptation in the new life after migration is usually associated with factors such as age, post-migration support from public institutions, postmigration support from relatives, post-migration support from neighbors, and inadequate educational opportunities. In this study, migration from Iran to Van province was analyzed using the geographically weighted regression (GWR) method. The analysis focused on identifying the factors that influence individuals’ responses to the statement “I adapted to my new life in a short time after migration”. According to the analysis results, it is observed that the GWR method gives stronger results. In comparison to the ordinary least squares (OLS) model, the GWR model demonstrates clear superiority across all evaluation criteria, indicating that the GWR model provides a substantially better fit to the data by capturing spatial variability more effectively.
Topic:: Migration, Integration, Forced Migration, Spatial Heterogeneity, and Local Modeling
Political Geography:: Iran, Turkey, Middle East, and Van

12. Impact of Migration Policies on Ukrainian Migrants in Turkey: Embrace vs Provision

Author:: Şebnem Köşer Akçapar and Filiz Tutku Aydın
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: The aim of this study is to elucidate decision-making processes of Ukrainian forced migrants of diverse ethnic and religious backgrounds relocated in Turkey in the wake of the Russian-Ukrainian War since 2022. We examine trends in prospective plans, including return, settlement, migration to third countries, and identify key factors influencing social integration in Turkey. To this end, extensive field research was conducted in five provinces in Turkey – İstanbul, Ankara, İzmir, Eskişehir and Antalya – between 2022 and 2024. This study employed qualitative method consisting of in-depth interviews with a wide range of stakeholders, including Ukrainian diplomatic representatives, migrant organizations, Turkish provincial migration management officials, and post-2022 Ukrainian migrants who were residing in Turkey under various statuses. The findings indicated that decisions between permanence and transience were determined by the state’s migrant and asylum policies along the embrace and provision continuum. In addition, active involvement of ethnic organizations of Ukrainians in migration processes appear to act as a factor that either triggers or hinders social cohesion.
Topic:: Asylum, Decision-Making, Forced Migration, Migrants, Russia-Ukraine War, and Migration Policy
Political Geography:: Turkey, Ukraine, and Middle East

13. Diplomacy Meets Paradiplomacy: Unpacking Central Government Responses through Evidence from Turkey’s Paradiplomac

Author:: Esra Kaya Erdoğan and Emrah Atar
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: This study examines the central government’s response to the paradiplomacy of sub-state actors through an analysis of the Turkish case, using a qualitative approach. As part of this research, a total of twelve face-to-face or virtual interviews were conducted with the representatives from the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Marmara Municipalities Union, and academics between June 2023 and November 2023. It views paradiplomacy as an outcome of the ongoing trend to localize diplomacy and aims to identify varying central government responses to paradiplomacy. These responses are analyzed using a three-fold categorization: positive, negative and mixed. The characteristics of each category explored in the context of the Turkish case. The study suggests that, despite the central government’s opportunistic approach to paradiplomacy, its response has shown a cyclical tendency. The central government’s stance on paradiplomacy is therefore complex and politically driven. It fluctuates along a broad spectrum, ranging from direct support to outright exclusion. This reflects the shifting political dynamics in Turkey.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Government, Governance, Municipalities, and Sub-state Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

14. The European Court of Human Rights Framework of the Property Issue in Cyprus: An Evaluation of the Immovable Property Commission

Author:: Perçem Arman and Özde Bayraktar
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: Despite being physically divided in 1974, no peace agreement has been made in Cyprus since then. Amongst the issues awaiting solution, perhaps the most difficult one is the property issue. Problems related to property rights have been brought to the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) on several occasions. This study focuses on the Immovable Property Commission (IPC), which was established in accordance with the jurisprudence of the ECtHR. In a frozen conflict environment, the ECtHR, although not a transitional justice mechanism for resolving human rights violations in armed conflicts, occasionally plays an effective role in pressuring national authorities to repair the destructive effects of conflict periods. This study assesses the effectiveness of the IPC’s role in addressing property issues in general and within this specific context.
Topic:: Displacement, Transitional Justice, Property, Compensation, and European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR)
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Cyprus, and Mediterranean

15. In Syria, America Should Be Ruthlessly Focused on the Islamic State

Author:: Joseph Votel and Elizabeth Dent
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: With the U.S. military presence on a potentially short timetable, officials should prioritize policies that ensure the continued security of Islamic State detention facilities, such as brokering local ceasefire agreements and alleviating Turkish concerns. Five years ago, we warned that a snap decision to depart Syria would be a devastating setback and damage American credibility. A few weeks later, amongst a U.S. withdrawal and subsequent Turkish invasion into areas held by the Syrian Democratic Forces, we argued the United States would need to maintain the ability to fight remnants of the Islamic State and ensure the fighters in detention remain there. Washington ceded much of its negotiating power in the country to Moscow and Ankara, only to reverse course a few months later and keep a small allotment of troops in northeast Syria to prevent a power vacuum and a run on Syrian oil and gas infrastructure. Today, the United States and its Kurdish-led partners face a nearly identical set of challenges, but in a massively changed balance of power in Syria. And despite political nominees’ reassurances that the United States is unlikely to abandon its partners there, Trump himself has been more ambivalent...
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Islamic State, and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

16. Costly Incrementalism: U.S. PKK Policy and Relations with Türkiye

Author:: Richard Outzen
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: U.S. policy towards the PKK, a designated Foreign Terror Organization, has varied significantly over four decades, reflecting a clear periodization based on pragmatic policy interests and the interplay of U.S. actions and Turkish responses. Washington has over time supported Turkish counter-PKK actions without direct involvement; actively supported Turkish counter-PKK efforts; tolerated or tacitly supported PKK activities; and directly instrumentalized and supported the PKK in Syria and regionally. Washington’s evolving stance toward the PKK coincided with the rise of Al Qaeda (AQ) and its offshoot, the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) as the focus of U.S. Middle East policy. The evolution reflected an incremental approach that subordinated U.S.-Turkish relations and other regional problems to the campaign against AQ/IS. Bilateral cooperation suffered as incrementalism, low trust, and transactionalism came to characterize the relationship. This paper examines the history, current dynamics, and possible future trajectory of U.S. PKK policy as a problem in U.S. Turkish bilateral relations.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, National Security, Terrorism, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

17. The Alliance in the Storm: Geopolitical Representation of the United States in the Turkish Parliament during Détente

Author:: Ayşe Ömür Atmaca
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: This article analyzes how the geopolitical representation of the United States in Turkish political discourse changed during the 1960s and 1970s in the context of deep crises between the two countries, such as the Cyprus question, the opium issue, and the US arms embargo on Türkiye. Within the framework of critical geopolitical theory, it uses the concept of “geopolitical representation.” It examines the changes in the geopolitical representation of the United States in Turkish political life through practical geopolitics. To this end, it evaluates the debates, speeches, and correspondence made by the representatives of the ruling and opposition parties and members of the government in the Turkish Grand National Assembly between 1964 and 1979, within the context of the crises in Turkish-American relations, particularly within the foreign policy framework. It is argued that while the alliance between Türkiye and the United States and Türkiye’s membership in NATO were seen as important symbols of Türkiye’s sovereignty and enjoyed unwavering support in the 1950s, tensions with the US, Türkiye’s “strategic partner,” in the 1960s and 1970s led to notable shifts in the Turkish parliament’s narrative. As a pioneer of anti-NATO and anti-US rhetoric, the Workers’ Party of Türkiye (TİP) played a prominent role in shaping parliamentary discussions.
Topic:: History, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, Arms Embargo, and Detente
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, North America, Cyprus, and United States of America

18. Challenging Friends: Türkiye-U.S. Relations

Author:: Lenore G. Martin
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: This article analyzes the underlying wellsprings for the major strains that disrupt the U.S. - Türkiye relationship. These strains arise from the U.S. support of the PYD/YPG/YPJ in Northern Syria as boots on the ground against ISIL; Türkiye’s purchase of the Russian S400 missile defense system; Türkiye’s energy imports from Russia and Iran; the U.S. refusal to extradite Fetullah Gülen; and Washington’s complaints about the AKP government’s anti-democratic tendencies. This article analyzes why and how some of these issues have evoked strong ire and distrust on both sides and others much less so by employing a paradigm based on five integrated variables: Türkiye’s military and economic capabilities; the availability of its natural resources, particularly energy; as well as threats to the legitimacy of the AKP regime and to the society’s ethnic and religious cohesion. Utilizing the paradigm, the article proposes measures that will increase the opportunities to build a firmer partnership between the U.S. and Türkiye.
Topic:: International Relations, NATO, National Security, Terrorism, Bilateral Relations, YPG, and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

19. A Multi-Dimensional Evaluation of Turkish Public Opinion towards the United States

Author:: Efe Tokdemir, Melike Metintaş, and Seçkin Köstem
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: Türkiye - United States relations have a multifaceted character and have spanned a long period, witnessing ups and downs throughout their historical trajectory. Türkiye’s relations with and foreign policy towards the US have been closely monitored by the public, and diverse perspectives towards the US have emerged within Turkish public opinion over time. This paper investigates the various factors that affect Turkish public opinion towards the US. Previous studies have generally examined public opinion through the demand side, exploring what features of the public predict their behavior towards other countries. In this research, we examine what exactly it is about the US that the public likes or dislikes. The research question of this article is: What are the determinants of the variation in individuals’ foreign policy attitudes towards the US in Türkiye? By answering this question through survey data conducted in 2021, we aim to present the economic, security-related, and political reasons behind the Turkish public’s positive and negative attitudes toward the US. The findings demonstrate that individuals are influenced by various dimensions pertaining to the US and its relations with Türkiye. The respondents’ demographic characteristics and political and foreign policy attitudes have resulted in disparate opinions regarding these multiple dimensions.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Public Opinion, and Attitudes
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

20. Where is the Anchor? Explaining the Endurance of the American-Turkish Partnership, 1927-2024

Author:: Onur Erpul and Kemal Kirisçi
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: Once considered a model partnership, the American-Turkish relationship now elicits ambivalence among scholars and policymakers, calling into question the fundamental interests and assumptions that once undergirded the relationship. Critics attribute the negative trends in the relationship to geostrategic and value-based incompatibilities, but relatively few have examined both factors longitudinally across the entire relationship. This paper does not aim to provide a grand theory of American-Turkish relations. Instead, its goal is to develop a framework illustrating the vital role that strategic, ideational, and domestic political factors have played in shaping macro-level outcomes in the partnership’s cohesion at various junctures. Overall, our paper identifies the positive role of foreign policy bureaucratic elites on both sides acting as an “invisible hand” providing an anchor for the relationship even in the absence of other commonalities. Yet, we also observe the weakening of this hand in recent times as both countries become domestically transformed.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, Alliance, and Elites
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

21. The Deinstitutionalization of U.S. and Turkish Foreign Policy: Why Societal Ties Are an Anchor in Bilateral Relations

Author:: Andrew O'Donohue
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: This paper challenges two prevailing narratives about U.S.-Turkey relations: first, that international and individual-level factors are responsible for volatility in the relationship and second, that bilateral relations are uniformly bleak. In contrast to these perspectives, this paper proposes a domestic and institutional explanation for the rising volatility of U.S.-Turkey relations and conceptualizes societal ties as an anchor in the bilateral relationship. This paper advances two inter-related arguments. First, I argue that a key driver of volatility in U.S.-Turkey relations since 2016 is the deinstitutionalization of U.S. and Turkish foreign policymaking. In the United States, the root cause of deinstitutionalization is intensifying polarization over foreign policy, fueled by the rise of populism. In Turkey, by contrast, foreign policy has deinstitutionalized through personalization: the steady concentration of decision-making power in the hands of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Second, against this backdrop of deinstitutionalization, I show that societal ties between the United States and Turkey provide a uniquely stable and enduring area of bilateral cooperation. I provide evidence for this argument in two key domains: 1) civil society and media and 2) higher education. These societal linkages, I argue, are often resilient precisely because they are disconnected from domestic politics and foreign policy. These societal ties should thus be understood not as agents that can reshape bilateral relations but as anchors that prevent the two nations from drifting apart.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Civil Society, Bilateral Relations, Media, Higher Education, Bureaucracy, and Polarization
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, North Africa, and United States of America

22. Turkey and the US in the Middle East: A Case for Alliance Change

Author:: Meliha Benli Altunisik
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: Turkey-US relations in the Middle East have evolved significantly in recent years. Initially based on shared threat perceptions and strategic outlooks during the Cold War, the alignment became characterized by divergences on some issues after the Gulf War in 1991. Their relationship in the Middle East has even become hostile in recent years. Turkey’s increased regional aspirations and evolving threat perceptions in the Middle East, framed within an ontological security narrative, have strained bilateral ties. This shift is compounded by divergent worldviews influenced by domestic political changes in both countries. Despite these challenges, the alliance persists within NATO, albeit with complexities arising from the interplay of external pressures and internal dynamics. This article explores these dynamics using a Neoclassical Realist framework to explain how Ankara’s evolving threat perceptions and ontological security concerns have reshaped Turkey-US relations in the Middle East amid changing global and regional contexts.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Alliance, Neoclassical Realism, and Threat Perception
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

23. Turkey’s Vision Transforms Post-Assad Syria

Author:: Hay Ertan Cohen Yanarocak
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Ankara aims to establish lasting influence through military expansion, strategic infrastructure projects, and economic agreements, including maritime treaties. Through its assertive Neo-Ottomanist policies Ankara aims become the primary architect of Syria’s future while countering rival powers like Iran and Russia.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Infrastructure, Bashar al-Assad, and Regional Power
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

24. The New Syria and the Regional Balance of Power

Author:: Amjed Rasheed
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The sudden fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime on 8 December 2024 and the subsequent rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), now leading the Syrian interim government in the country, have dramatically shaped the regional balance of power. Remarkably, the HTS-led interim government has been making some serious attempts to consolidate its control, and boost legitimacy, but also rebuild Syria after 14 years of civil war and a half-a-century of Assad dynasty rule. In its pursuit to achieve these ends, the interim government has launched diplomatic efforts toward regional and international powerhouses. Everybody, including Russia, is currently welcome to visit Damascus. Yet there is also failure so far to open up the transition to others, which could generate grievances and lead to disruptive regional interference. While the success of such a policy remains to be gauged, the HTS approach to accommodate regional contradiction is worth explaining.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Syrian War, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Russia, Turkey, Middle East, Syria, and Gulf Nations

25. Transformation of Turkish-Russian Relations: Rivalry and Cooperation in Eurasia and the Levant

Author:: Mustafa Aydin
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: Relations between Russia and Türkiye have developed considerably since the end of the Cold War. What began as energy trade in the late 1980s evolved into cooperation in business, energy, construction, tourism, politics and even security. Behind the ever-expanding cooperation lies a mistrust fueled by historical enmity and regional rivalry that occasionally leads to confrontation. As the two countries seek to shape their competitive cooperation beyond the current geopolitical challenges and constraints of regional security and alliances, the question of whether they could find ways to advance their partnership is of paramount importance and has regional and global implications. This paper seeks to understand how they have managed their conflict-ridden past to develop a modus operandi in the post-Cold War world by proposing a new conceptual model, namely “competitive cooperation” or “coopetition”, to understand the relationship that developed over the last 30 years in different geographical regions.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, Rivalry, and Competitive Cooperation
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, Turkey, Middle East, Mediterranean, and Black Sea

26. Schengen Visa Deadlock: The Unresolved Case of Turkish Citizens

Author:: Burak Erdenir
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: The visa policy of the European Union (EU) member states against Turkish citizens has been a controversial topic for decades. Millions of Turkish citizens suffer from serious restrictions before their travel to the Schengen area for the purpose of their non-gainful activities. In time, two main options appeared before the visa-free travel of Turkish citizens, namely the opportunity brought by the interpretations of the Court of Justice of the EU (CJEU) based on the “stand-still clause” and secondly the Visa Liberalisation Dialogue. The objective of the article is to discuss whether the visa regime against Turkish citizens is justified or politically motivated. It connects the technical/legal analysis to a political analysis through the securitization theory. Security framing practices of the European actors at various policy levels are analyzed to explain the continuation of the restrictive visa regime against Turkish citizens despite two strong options that could have ensured visa-free travel. This article concludes that as a result of developments following the failed coup attempt in 2016, visa-free travel of Turkish citizens which was framed through the perceived threat of Turkish migration has transformed into a real threat.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, European Union, Visa, Securitization, and Court of Justice of the EU (CJEU)
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

27. Foreign Language Acquisition and Learning of Late Ottoman Ambassadors and Consuls (1885-1910)

Author:: Mehmet Halil Mustafa Bektaş
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: The Ottoman Foreign Ministry underwent profound adjustments and transformations during the institutionalization process in the late Ottoman Empire. These developments significantly influenced the training of diplomats within the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, particularly from the latter half of the nineteenth century onwards, enhancing the professional competence and training of Ottoman diplomats. In this sense, this article aims to thoroughly examine the impact of institutionalization process within the Ottoman Foreign Ministry on diplomats’ acquisition and learning of foreign languages. The primary source for this study will be the registry files (sicill-i ahval) from the Ottoman Archives. Employing a prosopographic approach, the study will analyze the foreign language proficiency of late Ottoman ambassadors and consuls, along with their methods of language acquisition. By doing so, this article seeks to advance our understanding of the process of professionalization and specialization within Ottoman diplomacy.
Topic:: Ottoman Empire, Diplomatic History, Ambassador, Consul, and Foreign Language Education
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Ottoman Empire

28. İmamoğlu Arrested: Türkiye Shifting to Autocracy

Author:: Aleksandra Maria Spancerska
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Demonstrations in Türkiye erupted in March when the Istanbul prosecutor’s office launched an investigation of that city’s mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), the main opponent of current head of state Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in the 2028 presidential contest. The attack on the opposition candidate appears to be a turning point indicating Türkiye’s entry onto the path of authoritarianism, which will negatively affect the state of Turkish-EU relations.
Topic:: European Union, Domestic Politics, Autocracy, and Ekrem İmamoğlu
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

29. Examining Political Parties’ Perspectives on Foreign Policy through Their Election Manifestos: 2023 General Elections in Türkiye

Author:: Ibrahim Yılmaz
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: The election manifestos, published by political parties before a general election, provide important information about what the countries’ domestic and foreign policies might be like. In Türkiye, it might be argued that the attitudes of political parties toward foreign policy are important to voters. Political parties in Türkiye state, in general, their approach to foreign policy in their general election manifestos. The aim of this study is related to the approaches of political parties’ foreign policy perspectives. The perspectives of political parties on foreign policy are examined through their 2023 general election manifestos. More specifically, the aim of this study is twofold. Firstly, to understand how much importance political parties give to the issue of foreign policy in their election manifestos and secondly, to examine what are the raised key issues in foreign policy within the election manifestos.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Elections, and Political Parties
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

30. Q&A | Disbanding the PKK: A turning point in Turkey’s longest war?

Author:: Nancy Ezzeddine
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: On 12 May 2025, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) officially announced its decision to disband and end its armed struggle. Designated a terrorist organization by Turkey and several of its allies, the group has waged a decades-long insurgency for Kurdish autonomy and rights. This announcement followed a unilateral ceasefire declared on 1 March, after the PKK’s imprisoned leader, Abdullah Öcalan, issued a call for the group to disarm. The PKK has previously made commitments to peace, but last week’s announcement is unprecedented. In this Q&A, ACLED Middle East Analyst Nancy Ezzeddine explains how this development compares to previous efforts, what motivates each side, and whether it marks the start of a sustainable peace process.
Topic:: Insurgency, Kurds, PKK, and Peace Process
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

31. Russia’s Deterrence Strategy in Nagorno-Karabakh

Author:: Miguel Paradela López
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: The article analyzes the two-part strategy Russia developed to address the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in 2020. First, the country helped to weaken Armenia’s position in Nagorno-Karabakh and consolidate Azerbaijan’s. Second, the Russian military deployed peacekeeping troops to the border of the two countries to stabilize the conflict, deter any new Azeri military advance in the region and improve the Russian influence in the Caucasus. Although this strategy was initially successful, as it increased Russia’s military capacity in the region, the unexpected complications Russia experienced during the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 severely weakened its role as peacekeeper and deterrence power. Russia’s involvement in a highly demanding conflict has led to considerable suffering, increased international pressure, and a deteriorated perception of its military power, precluding it from deterring the expansion of a Turkish-backed Azerbaijan. As a result, Russia’s deterring capacity failed as it was uncapable of sending a credible threat to Azerbaijan and this country could achieve historic goals in the region. Consequently, Russia severely compromised its own position in the Caucasus, and increasing pressure over Armenia should be expected.
Topic:: Territorial Disputes, Peacekeeping, Deterrence, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Nagorno-Karabakh

32. The impact on developing economies of WTO dissolution

Author:: Lloyd Barton
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: This report revisits the analysis presented in our April 2024 paper on the potential impact of WTO dissolution, drilling down to quantify national-level impacts for a sample of ten developing economies. Our previous report (The economic impact of abandoning the WTO) focused on presenting aggregated results for developing countries by region and income level. This report drills down to quantify impacts for a sample of ten individual countries: Brazil, Cameroon, China, Egypt, Guatemala, Indonesia, India, South Africa, Turkey, and Vietnam. These countries provide a rich, varied sample that captures the complexity of trade policy in the developing world. Their diversity in geography, economic size, policy orientation, and development stage allows for a nuanced analysis of how WTO dissolution could potentially influence pathways to higher incomes, poverty reduction and economic resilience. Our analysis reinforces the importance of ensuring the WTO can adapt to new trade realities and continue to function as an effective global trade body.
Topic:: Economics, Poverty, Trade, Economic Development, and WTO
Political Geography:: China, Indonesia, Turkey, India, South Africa, Brazil, Vietnam, Egypt, Guatemala, and Cameroon

33. A Tug-of-War that Risks Snapping the Rope: Regional Competition over Post-Assad Syria

Author:: Cengiz Günay, Josefine Paulsen, and Yuki Adachi
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:: The sudden fall of the Assad regime occurred amid widespread political and economic crises, regionally and internationally. The prospects for international cooperation on reconstruction — let alone democratization — remain slim. Regional powers pursue ambitious goals but are weakened by domestic challenges and economic stagnation. While most actors agree on preserving the Syrian nation-state, their approach to the interim government under Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) diverge significantly. In this fragile context, there is an imminent risk of re-escalation, and snapping the rope. This Policy Paper analyzes the competing geopolitical interests in the Eastern Mediterranean in the context of Syria’s regime change. Turkey, the former protector of the victorious HTS rebel group, holds strong cards in the geopolitical game for regional dominance. However, HTS is not Ankara’s proxy, and Turkey is currently lacking the economic and political capacity to decisively shape Syria’s future. The Gulf monarchies are all focused on domestic political, social and economic transitions. Nevertheless, they are the only regional powers with the economic power to invest in Syria’s future. However, Saudi Arabia is ideologically wary of HTS, and no actor is eager to fund Turkey’s regional ambitions. Israel seeks to preserve Syria’s territorial unity, yet keep HTS as weak as possible and prevent the rise of extremist Islamist groups. The tug-of-war between Israel and Turkey is one of the most immanent risks of snapping the rope in Syria. Iran and Russia: While Assad’s fall represents a major setback for both actors, both countries have built complex informal networks across Syria. They are now focused on maintaining influence over these networks below the surface. The United States and the EU are barely involved in shaping post-Assad Syria. It seems unlikely that these two actors get actively involved in Syria in the near future.
Topic:: Regime Change, Geopolitics, Syrian War, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Bashar al-Assad, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Russia, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Qatar, Gulf Nations, and Eastern Mediterranean

34. Strategic Recalibration: Turkey's Decision to End the Oil Agreement with Iraq

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: On July 21, 2025, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced his government's decision not to renew the agreements and protocols signed between Türkiye and Iraq since 1973 regarding the crude oil pipeline extending from Iraq to Türkiye. The agreement, which facilitated oil transport from Kirkuk in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq to the Yumurtalık oil port in southeastern Türkiye, has played a strategic role in delivering millions of barrels of Iraqi oil through the Turkish port of Ceyhan to global markets. Originally renewed in 2010 for fifteen years, the agreement is scheduled to expire on July 27, 2026.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Oil, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Iraq, Turkey, and Middle East

35. The Indian Factor: Analyzing Pakistan-Turkey Rapprochement and its Implications for India

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: In a move that reflects the deepening ties between Pakistan and Turkey, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif visited Turkey on May 25–26, 2025 — his second visit to the country this year — as part of a broader regional diplomatic tour that also included Iran, Azerbaijan, and Tajikistan. The tour aimed to express Pakistan's gratitude and strengthen regional partnerships in the wake of its recent military confrontation with India. Turkey's support for Islamabad during this conflict has strained India–Turkey relations, prompting New Delhi to launch campaigns calling for the boycott of Turkish products and services.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Partnerships, Rapprochement, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Pakistan, South Asia, Turkey, and India

36. Ocalan’s Call: Can Peace Be Achieved Between Turkey and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: After four decades of violence claiming at least 40,000 lives, Abdullah Ocalan, founder and leader of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), issued a message from his prison on an island off Istanbul on February 27, 2025. In his statement, Ocalan urged the PKK to lay down its arms, end its resistance against the Turkish state, and dissolve itself. Responding positively to Ocalan's call, the PKK's executive committee announced in early March 2025 that it accepted his proposal and awaited Ankara's response. The initiative aligns with a proposal launched on October 22, 2024, in the Turkish parliament by Devlet Bahceli, leader of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and a key ally of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Bahceli's initiative aimed to facilitate dialogue with Ocalan to disband the PKK, disarm its fighters, and declare an end to terrorism in Turkey—a move endorsed by Erdoğan.
Topic:: Armed Forces, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Peace, PKK, and Abdullah Ocalan
Political Geography:: Turkey and Kurdistan

37. The Contemporary Reflection of a Deep-Rooted Tradition: The Chief Rabbinate in Türkiye and Its New Leader

Author:: Nuh Arslantaş
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In our latest issue of Turkeyscope, Prof. Nuh Arslantaş sheds light on the Jewish minority in Turkey and how its positive relationship with the Muslim-majority government stands on centuries of cooperation and commitment to pluralism.
Topic:: Minorities, Pluralism, Muslims, and Jews
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

38. The New Struggle for Syria: Sunni Power Competition in the Post-Asad Era

Author:: Ido Yahel
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In the latest issue of Tel Aviv Notes, Dr. Ido Yahel examines the intra- Sunni dimension of the struggle for influence in post-Asad Syria.
Topic:: Minorities, Syrian War, Sunni, Bashar al-Assad, Shiite, and Post-Conflict
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Jordan, Qatar, and United Arab Emirates

39. Between Power and Paradox: Militarisation, Defence Ambitions, and Turkey’s Strategic Struggles

Author:: Ahmet Erdi Öztürk and Can Selçuki
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: Turkey occupies a distinctive position—geographically proximate to the epicentres of regional crises and institutionally is embedded in Western security structures such as NATO. However, Turkey is more than a geopolitical bridge; it has emerged as a multidimensional actor with ambitions to act both as a regional stabilizer and as a global mediator. Turkey’s position within this evolving global order is both advantageous and inherently paradoxical. As a long-standing NATO member, Turkey remains structurally embedded in the Western security architecture. Yet its geostrategic identity—historically, culturally, and geographically intertwined with the volatile landscapes of Eurasia, the Middle East, and North Africa—drives it to adopt a multi-vector foreign policy. From an economic standpoint, Turkey’s position remains marked by deep-seated contradictions. While its customs union with the European Union and strategic access to multiple regional markets confer structural advantages, these are significantly offset by institutional fragility, regulatory ambiguity, and elevated geopolitical risk premiums. Turkey’s defence industry has evolved into more than a military instrument; it is now a key lever for diplomatic influence and geopolitical ambition. Positioned at the heart of NATO, yet often at odds with its Western allies, Ankara has expanded its strategic footprint across the Middle East, North Africa, and the Caucasus by leveraging domestically-developed military platforms. Turkey must articulate a clear strategic rationale to underpin its defence investments. This involves moving beyond reactive threat perceptions and developing a holistic framework that aligns defence policy with broader developmental and diplomatic objectives. The protection of democratic institutions is an integral part of this framework, while two interrelated concepts are essential: economic security and open strategic autonomy.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Geopolitics, Defense Industry, and Militarization
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

40. Turkey’s Defence Industry and the EU SAFE Regulation

Author:: Dimitris Tsarouhas
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: From Ottoman-era modernization through to its advanced capabilities today, Turkey has transformed itself into a major global defence exporter, with $6.3 billion in exports in 2024 and flagship products like the Bayraktar TB2 drone. Turkey leverages its NATO membership and geographic position to strengthen defence ties and secure influence in alliance decision-making, while at the same time contributing to the Alliance advanced technologies. The EU’s Security Action for Europe (SAFE) initiative allocates €150 billion for joint defence procurement to boost Europe’s defence industrial base, reduce reliance on non-EU suppliers, and enhance interoperability. Ankara’s SAFE participation rationale rests on enabling technological collaboration, market access, and stronger EU ties, leveraging Turkey’s expertise in drone systems, cybersecurity, and unmanned technologies. Turkey’s SAFE participation should remain conditional on Ankara improving its bilateral political relations with member states, and on making explicit assurances on the inviolability of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all EU member states.
Topic:: Security, Bilateral Relations, European Union, Regulation, Exports, and Defense Industry
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

41. The dissolution of the PKK: Strengthening Turkey internally and externally

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: The PKK announced its dissolution and renounced armed struggle, triggering internal rifts but also paving the way for greater Kurdish political participation in Turkey, increased state investment in development, and stronger ties between Turkey, Iraq and Europe.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, PKK, Public Investment, Political Participation, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

42. A Coalition of the Willing for Ukraine: Europe tries to return to the negotiations table

Author:: Niklas Ebert and Claudia Major
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: The new buzzword in European defense is the “coalition of the willing”. Proposed by France and the United Kingdom in February 2025, the initiative is meant to support Ukraine’s sovereignty by upholding a ceasefire in the country and by deterring Russia once the fighting has stopped. So far, however, there is neither a ceasefire nor has Russia signaled acceptance for Western troops in Ukraine. The Europeans have started military planning although pledges remain limited. But there is much discussion about Europe’s taking responsibility for Ukraine, especially since the second Donald Trump administration appears to be redefining its commitment to European security and supporting an end to the war largely on Russia's terms. The discrepancy between rhetoric and action puts Ukraine’s and Europe’s security, and the latter’s credibility, at risk. To better understand the gap, GMF experts assessed the different national perspectives across North America and Europe (including Ukraine) on the value and probability of a coalition of the willing for Ukraine and potential national contributions to it. Their analyses provide an overview of the variety of European positions and explore the likeliness of the coalition’s success. Each expert was given three sets of questions to guide their analysis: Does the country’s government support the idea of a coalition of the willing in Ukraine? Is there a national consensus? What tasks should this coalition have? Is the country willing to participate or contribute in another way? Why? The experts analyze the thinking in their chosen countries and offer no personal opinions. The analyses are based on public statements and confidential interviews.
Topic:: Security, European Union, Negotiation, Transatlantic Relations, Russia-Ukraine War, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, and Baltic States

43. Building on Momentum in U.S.-Turkey Relations

Author:: Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The two leaders can use their personal rapport to solve bilateral and regional problems, but they will also face tough challenges in matters such as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and dealings with China. In the second in a series of TRANSITION 2025 memos, Soner Cagaptay explores areas for U.S. partnership with Turkey in the Middle East and beyond. After a decade of malaise, relations between the two countries have lately recovered thanks to Turkish support for Sweden’s accession to NATO, granted in return for permission to buy U.S. F-16 fighter jets. The personal magnetism between President Trump and his counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, could smooth the way for further cooperation in military and economic areas, and also potentially help the new U.S. administration in Ukraine and Syria. But complex challenges remain, relating not only to the Syrian conflict—where Ankara and Washington backed different actors—but also to dealings with China and affinities in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. MIDDLE EAST POLICY TRANSITION 2025 by Washington Institute experts address challenges and opportunities for the Trump-Vance administration during a period of extraordinary change in the Middle East. A primary challenge will be countering Iran’s march toward the bomb. Also critical will be determining a sustainable U.S. force posture in the region and updating America’s counterterrorism mission. Opportunities, meanwhile, are suddenly ample after blows to the “axis of resistance” and include the imperative to forge a better relationship with Turkey, which is set to be an influential player in post-Assad Syria.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: China, Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

44. Inside the Latest PKK Talks (Part 2): Implications for Turkish and U.S. Policy

Author:: Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: If Ankara seals the deal and preempts potential spoilers, the results could prove historic for Turkish politics, Erdogan’s legacy, joint counterterrorism efforts, and wider U.S. regional interests. nkara’s new dialogue with the PKK was born from nearly a decade of meticulous counterterrorism work, carried out by the country’s security forces and National Intelligence Organization and based on a political plan formulated by Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, who served as intelligence chief until 2023. The steps involved in this strategy have since become clear: (1) double down on pressuring and weakening the PKK via drone strikes and other effective tools, (2) bring the group back to the negotiating table from a position of weakness, and (3) negotiate the group’s breakup via Kurdish political intermediaries, as described in Part 1 of this PolicyWatch. The first phase of the plan achieved major successes against PKK militants in Turkey, Iraq, and Syria, while phases two and three are seemingly being checked off as well amid reports that Abdullah Ocalan may soon ask his group to lay down their arms. To close the deal, end the PKK threat once and for all, and score a domestic political prize in the process, Fidan, Erdogan, and Turkey’s national security elites have been actively engaging Kurdish actors at home and abroad, whether to increase pressure on the group or offer incentives for disbanding.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Domestic Politics, Negotiation, Kurds, PKK, Dialogue, and Peacemaking
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and United States of America

45. Inside the Latest PKK Talks (Part 1): Kurdish Actors and Interests

Author:: Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Although past peace efforts have fallen apart due to diplomatic stumbles and Kurdish opposition, the situation on the ground in Iraq, Syria, and Turkey has changed dramatically enough to warrant optimism about Ankara’s current talks. Turkey is reportedly on the cusp of a historic announcement by Abdullah Ocalan, jailed leader of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), with sources indicating he may soon ask the movement’s members to disband and end their longstanding fight against the government. Resolving the state’s five-decade conflict with a designated terrorist group would have momentous repercussions on a wide range of issues, from Turkish politics at home to bilateral ties abroad. For one, it could remove the PKK thorn from U.S.-Turkish relations and pave the way for their anticipated reset under the second Trump administration. It would also affect developments next door in Syria, where Washington has partnered with the PKK’s Syrian branch, the People’s Defense Units (YPG), since 2014 to fight the Islamic State—rousing Turkey’s ire in the process. Yet what are the deal’s actual chances for success, and what specific implications might it hold for the many relevant actors in the region and beyond? Part 1 of this PolicyWatch analyzes the Kurdish angles in Turkey, Syria, and Iraq; Part 2 assesses broader U.S. and Turkish policy considerations.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Kurds, PKK, and Dialogue
Political Geography:: Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

46. Social Media Addiction: Yeşilay's Awareness Campaigns Against Social Media Addiction

Author:: Meryem Altıntaş
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Academic Inquiries
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: As with other addictions, social media addiction causes the individual to be exposed to many mental and physical problems. The Yeşilayhas an important place in the fight against addiction, especially in creating individual and social awareness. In this study, it is examined what kind of studies the Yeşilay conducts on social media addiction, whether it conveys methods of combating social media addiction, and whether it informs about individual responsibilities regarding social media addiction. Within the scope of the study, a total of 5 brochures published on the official website of the Yeşilay under the name of technology addiction were analyzed. The brochures were analyzed in terms of target audience, subject, language and visuals. It was observed that the brochures provided information about technology addiction, the effects of technology addiction and methods of protection from addiction. The Yeşilay has brochures on technology addiction. However, the Yeşilay should also prepare brochures that deal entirely with social media addiction. In addition, the brochures should frequently inform individuals to receive professional psychological support within the scope of combating addiction.
Topic:: Social Media, Journalism, and Addiction
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Global Focus

47. Türkiye’de Din ve Milliyetçilik Söylemlerinde Sınırların İnşası: Lévi-Strauss’un Yapısalcı Perspektifinden Bir Analiz

Author:: Mesut Özcan
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Bilgi
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: This study aims to understand borders in the con-text of religion and nationalism in Turkey. For this purpose, the main problematic of this study is what kind of meanings are attributed to the concept of borders in religious and nationalist discourses in Turkish political culture and state tradition. Within the framework of this problematic, the study tries to understand the construction of borders in Turkey through concepts such as structure, language, meaning and symbol, which constitute Lévi-Strauss's structuralist perspective. In this study, discourse analysis technique was used within the framework of qualitative research meth-od. In this study, boundaries were analyzed from a discursive perspective as structural wholes, as well as structures through which meaning is produced and symbolized through language. For such an analysis, Turkey's historical and sociological struc-ture on religion and nationalism provides important data. In this context, borders, which are one of the main components of religion and nationalism in Turkey, are not just a line but also structures that symbolise the basic elements of Turkish political culture such as homeland, nation, state, land, honour, faith, mar-tyrdom and holiness. The structure, language, meaning and symbols contained in religious and nationalist discourse in Turkey have transformed borders into multi-layered ones. In the context of Lévi-Strauss's conceptualization of binary opposi-tions, borders in Turkey have created a language and discourse that are dominated by reli-gious and nationalist tones through binary opposi-tions such as us-them/other, friend-enemy, here-there, inside-outside, local-foreign and national-international.
Topic:: Nationalism, Religion, Borders, and Structuralism
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

48. Türkiye’s Disinflation Challenge: A Bumpy Road Toward Stability

Author:: Murat Yülek
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Australian Institute of International Affairs (AIIA)
Abstract:: Since the 2023 presidential elections, Ankara’s fight against inflation is showing mixed results amid policy shifts, capital volatility, and business frustrations. The official objective of single digit inflation is yet to be achieved.
Topic:: Economy, Economic Policy, and Inflation
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

49. Unsettled Ground, Unsettled Lives: The Ontological (In)securities of Syrian Refugees in the Shadow of Turkey’s 2023 Earthquake

Author:: Berfin Çakın and Renad AlMajdalawi
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:: Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:: This paper examines the ontological insecurities faced by Syrian refugees in Turkey following the 2023 earthquakes. Ontological security refers to the security of being, encompassing a sense of confidence in the apparent stability of the world. This concept is intimately linked to managing existential uncertainties and maintaining routines to ensure a sense of security. Previous literature indicates that uncertain situations, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and natural disasters, including earthquakes and floods, exacerbate ontological insecurities. Additionally, these challenging situations often intensify anti-refugee attitudes. Historically, the impact of earthquakes on individuals has been considered predominantly within the realm of physical security, a perspective critiqued by critical security scholars. In alignment with this critique, our study adopts an ontological security perspective to analyze the situations of Syrian refugees in Turkey post-earthquake, addressing a gap in the literature which has previously focused on the physical security aspects of Syrian refugees. While numerous studies documented the relationship between security and migration, fewer explored the nexus between ontological (in)security and migration in the context of natural hazards. This study addresses this gap by investigating how the recent earthquake heightened existing insecurities among Syrian refugees. Drawing on ontological security studies, narrative analysis, and data from in-depth, semi-structured interviews, the study finds that the vulnerabilities of Syrian refugees were intensified by the earthquake. Their perceptions of home, society, and future shifted significantly, decreasing their ontological security and exacerbating existing inequalities. Our findings suggest that the February 2023 earthquake posed threats to refugees beyond physical inadequacies, exacerbating the ontological insecurities of Syrian refugees in Turkey. This compounded their displacement-related existential anxieties and undermined their sense of stability and belonging by altering their perceptions of home, trust in public authorities, and their future. The earthquake significantly disrupted Syrian refugees’ understanding of “home” by compounding their sense of loss and insecurity, thereby challenging their ability to establish a stable, predictable environment essential for ontological security in Turkey. Furthermore, the earthquake altered Syrian refugees’ trust in public authorities. The government’s handling of the post-earthquake process significantly impacted refugees’ access to essential resources, with discriminatory practices and mobility restrictions amplifying their vulnerability and precariousness. The state’s crisis management capabilities and emphasis on border security, aimed at ensuring control, inadvertently increased refugees’ precariousness regarding their identity and future, leading to a loss of trust in public authorities. In addition to these challenges, the earthquake also changed Syrian refugees’ perception of their future in Turkey, causing them to question their safety and sense of belonging in the host society. Existing challenges faced by refugees were exacerbated by the earthquake and compounded by societal exclusion, further shattering their sense of stability and predictability. Post-earthquake, language barriers and stereotypes intensified, leading to increased discrimination and a reliance on informal survival networks, further diminishing their trust in the future. This heightened ontological insecurity, compounded by economic and social barriers, deepened divisions and made the refugees feel perpetually out of place, undermining their trust in Turkish institutions and society. Our suggestions and policy recommendations underscore the need for comprehensive policies that address both the physical and psychological dimensions of refugee well-being with reference to concrete policy designs in a post-disaster process.
Topic:: Migration, Natural Disasters, Refugees, Domestic Politics, Syrian War, and Earthquake
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

50. Can Turkey and Israel Find Common Ground in Syria?

Author:: Ken Pollack, Gonul Tol, and Natan Sachs
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: With the collapse of the Assad regime last December and Interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s assumption of power in January, Syria has entered a precarious era, with both dangers and opportunities. Its trajectory will depend in part on neighboring Turkey’s and Israel’s interventions and competition for influence in Syrian affairs. Rising tensions between them raise the stakes of their respective objectives in Syria and whether the two sides may be reconciled in a way that is beneficial to Syria’s recovery post-Assad. Our panel of experts will help us understand how Syria has become an arena for Turkish-Israeli rivalry, what role the United States could play in tamping down the hostilities between its two allies, and how this situation affects the stability and geostrategic trajectory of the broader region.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Syrian War, Rivalry, Post-Conflict, Regional Politics, and Foreign Influence
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Syria

51. The Regional and Domestic Elements of Erdoğan's Grand Strategy

Author:: Alistair Taylor, Matthew Czekaj, and Gonul Tol
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: In this episode of Middle East Focus, hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj are joined by MEI Senior Fellow Gönül Tol to discuss how shifting regional dynamics — from the Israel-Iran war to renewed violence in southern Syria — are reshaping Turkey’s foreign policy and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's domestic agenda. They unpack Ankara’s ties with the US under the Trump administration, its strained relations with Israel, the implications of Turkey’s peace process with the PKK, and Erdoğan’s bid to maintain his hold on power. The conversation also explores how Turkey is positioning itself as Western engagement grows more uncertain and what this means for the future of democracy in the country.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Armed Conflict, PKK, Regional Politics, and Political Transition
Political Geography:: Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Syria, and United States of America

52. An Analysis of Türkiye’s Role in the Black Sea Region Building Process

Author:: Nergiz Özkural Köroğlu and Fatih Özgüven
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: In a multipolar world, new security threats have emerged, and region-based approaches have been developed to address these new security challenges. In the literature on regionalisation, it is assumed that region-building processes take place under certain conditions and in certain stages. Considering the existing processes in the literature, this study aligns the formation of the Black Sea Region with the understanding of the stages of region-building and proposes new stages of region-building, influenced by the first and second waves of regionalisation processes. In order to analyse Türkiye’s role in the region, the statements made by Turkish political elites (Prime Minister, Foreign Minister, President, and Presidential Spokesperson) during their visits to the Black Sea countries (Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine, Russia, and Georgia) between 2014 and 2023 were subjected to content analysis. This period was chosen to highlight the post-2014 period, which witnessed conflicts that negatively affected the region-building process. Security concerns are important in region-building processes and often lead to the formation of security communities.
Topic:: Multipolarity, Regional Security, and International Society
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Black Sea

53. Twisting in the Wind: The Politics of Tepid Transitions to Renewable Energy

Author:: Deniz Ünal
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: The book analyses the transition to renewable energy in Türkiye, which, according to the Bayulgen, is the country in the world that needs it the most to reduce its current account deficit, energy insecurity, and increasing environmental degradation. Chapter one is an introductory chapter and draws the general framework for the study. The main puzzle of the book is why renewable energy reforms stagnate over time despite favourable economic and technical conditions and why it is hard to increase renewable energy against fossil fuels. These questions are important to detect if the factors necessary to initiate pro-renewable policies are different from those that are necessary to sustain them. The Turkish case shows how governments can implement renewable energy reforms under external pressures to meet increasing energy demand without an ideological commitment to the environment. Therefore, clean energy reforms are not always motivated by societal demands. Once the reforms are enacted by the hand of a narrow governing circle more easily, more democracy is needed to sustain them to break the incumbent position of fossil fuel companies. Thus, the author claims that the drivers of initial reforms are crises, opportunistic elites, and concentration of power; while the drivers of sustainable reform are representative institutions and professional bureaucracy.
Topic:: Book Review, Renewable Energy, Green Transition, and Energy
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

54. Examining the Cyprus Issue through the Lens of the EU’s Periodic Progress Reports on Türkiye

Author:: Yusuf Avar
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Novus Orbis: Journal of Politics & International Relations
Institution:: Department of International Relations, Karadeniz Technical University
Abstract:: This study tries to comprehend and evaluate the significance of the Cyprus problem in Türkiye’s relations with the EU. In this sense, it aims to ascertain any potential shifts in the EU’s stance towards Cyprus and to elucidate the specific issues that the EU prioritized across several periods. Therefore, the EU’s 1998-2024 (except one not prepared in 2017) progress reports have undergone content analysis. It has been observed that the Cyprus issue has been discussed in every report and this situation proves how much the EU has given its importance to the issue. Within this framework, the concept of bottom-up Europeanization has been employed as a conceptual framework to explain the EU’s stance on the Cyprus issue. It is apparent that the Greek Cyprus, with Greece’s assistance, effectively transferred the Cyprus issue to the EU level, and no EU reports criticize Greece or the Greek Cyprus for their problem-solving efforts. Rather, most reports state that Türkiye and the Turkish Cypriots are the primary causes of the issue.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Territorial Disputes, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Greece, and Cyprus

55. Turkish Foreign Policy in 2020s: Designed for a "Gentle Giant"?

Author:: Emre Kalay
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Novus Orbis: Journal of Politics & International Relations
Institution:: Department of International Relations, Karadeniz Technical University
Abstract:: Türkiye does not refrain from utilizing its hard power components to influence the conjecture in its region in the 2020s. The utilizing of hard power instruments has different levels: producing and providing military equipment to one side of the conflict as in the Ukrainian case; in addition to producing and providing military equipment, providing technical assistance as in the Nagorno-Karabakh issue and Libya; using military power to confront, standoff and deter other parties as in Eastern Mediterranean question and, conducting extraterritorial military operations as in Syria case. What makes Türkiye a gentle giant is what comes with/after the utilization of hard power. If Türkiye’s interests are considered to be satisfied with/after the usage of hard power, Turkish foreign policy starts to send messages towards peace and prosperity in the region. By doing so, it tries to ensure the countries in question that Türkiye has no interest in further violent conflict or has the ambition to violate their sovereignty.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Strategic Interests, and Hard Power
Political Geography:: Turkey, Ukraine, Middle East, Syria, and Nagorno-Karabakh

56. Anchoring NATO’s eastern flank: A neoclassical realist analysis of Romania’s Black Sea policy and its strategic interaction with Turkey

Author:: Zoltán Lechner
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: This study addresses two specific objectives. First, it aims to examine Romania’s foreign and security policy towards the Black Sea region and explain how and why Bucharest’s position in regional power dynamics has changed over time. Second, it aims to describe how Romania’s and Turkey’s strategic perspectives on the Black Sea relate to each other. The paper employs a qualitative, theory-informed case study methodology to examine Romania’s foreign and security policy in the Black Sea region. This is complemented by a comparative foreign policy analysis to explore the relationship between Romania’s and Turkey’s strategic perspectives. Accordingly, the research design integrates both single-case analysis and paired comparison to capture the dynamics of strategic regional interaction. Using the theory of neoclassical realism, the paper describes Romania’s strategic initiatives in the Black Sea region, explains how structural and domestic influences have shaped Bucharest’s foreign and security policy, and examines the complex relationship between the regional strategies of Romania and Turkey, by identifying the common and divergent interests of the two states. Romania’s Black Sea policy has been shaped by both external variables—structural power dynamics affecting the region—as well as internal variables—elite perceptions and the shifting dynamics of domestic politics. The relationship between the Black Sea strategies of Romania and Turkey can be described as a mixture of convergence, rooted in common security interests, and divergence, fuelled by distinct threat perceptions, domestic political dynamics, and regional ambitions.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, International Security, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Russia, Turkey, Romania, and Black Sea

57. Crossroads of Peace: Advancing Regional Integration and Global Trade Through Post-Conflict Cooperation

Author:: Gevorg Papoyan and Albert Hayrapetyan
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: This article examines the potential economic benefits of the Crossroads of Peace (CoP) initiative proposed by the Government of Armenia. To assess regional trade dynamics, three indicators were applied: the Export Similarity Index (ESI), the Trade Complementarity Index (TCI), and the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA). The findings reveal that the ESI between Armenia and its regional partners, Türkiye and Azerbaijan, is 0.25, indicating minimal competition in export markets. In contrast, the TCI score of 0.5 from the region to Armenia suggests a relatively higher degree of complementarity, highlighting stronger opportunities for regional exports to Armenia than vice versa. Furthermore, Armenia’s projected trade volume with Türkiye in 2024 is estimated at USD 787 million, underscoring the initiative’s potential to foster significant economic exchange.
Topic:: Exports, Trade, Regional Economy, Freedom of Movement, and Post-Conflict
Political Geography:: Turkey, Caucasus, Armenia, and Azerbaijan

58. How Democracies Defend Themselves Against Authoritarianism

Author:: Robert Benson
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: Democracies facing authoritarian threats from within have found ways to push back by strengthening institutions, reinforcing democratic norms, and building popular resistance against encroaching autocracy. Understanding these strategies is vital to learning how to fight back.
Topic:: Human Rights, National Security, Authoritarianism, Reform, Elections, Democracy, Transparency, Voting Rights, Donald Trump, Domestic Policy, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:: Russia, Turkey, India, Israel, North America, and United States of America

59. NATO and the Middle East: Turkey’s threat conceptions and attempts at stability in post-Assad Syria

Author:: Olli Ruohomäki, Toni Alaranta, and Iro Särkkä
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: With the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, and potential growing instability in Syria, NATO has struggled to formulate a coherent position on the Middle East and to build a cohesive network of partners in the region. As the stakes rise and Europe becomes more invested, both economically and militarily, in Euro-Atlantic defence, the Alliance should not neglect the chance to further develop its cooperative security agenda in the Middle East. In this context, Turkey – NATO’s only member state in the region – can act as a link between the Alliance and the Middle East. Turkey and other NATO members have long held different threat conceptions, resulting in differing priorities in counterterrorism. However, ongoing negotiations between Turkey and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), aimed at ending their long-standing conflict, could ease this divergence. While deeper cooperation between Turkey and European countries in the new European security arrangements depends on Turkey’s willingness to choose a side in the Europe-Russia confrontation, European NATO allies could still work with Turkey in areas where there is clear common ground with other Middle Eastern states, such as safeguarding an orderly political transition in Syria.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Terrorism, Governance, European Union, and Security Cooperation
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

60. BRICS+ and the age of multipolarity: Why Turkey and Saudi Arabia remain cautious

Author:: Toni Alaranta and Mohammed Hadi
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: BRICS+ is an international platform representing the attempt by non-Western emerging economies to seek influence and independence from the West. It is currently facing uncertainty regarding its scope and future structure. Turkey’s expressed desire to join is part of its efforts to diversify its political and economic relations and gain a more autonomous position, while retaining key institutional ties with the West. Saudi Arabia has already been invited to join but has played a waiting game to secure a comprehensive security pact with the US, while simultaneously developing its economic relations with the BRICS+ countries. The strategic ambiguity surrounding Turkey’s and Saudi Arabia’s BRICS+ membership may not only indicate deliberate policy choices but also reflect uncertainties arising from systemic transformation and increasing multipolarity.
Topic:: Governance, Multilateralism, BRICS, Multipolarity, and Middle Powers
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia

61. The Turkey-Qatar Axis and its Impact on Post-Asad Syria

Author:: Jonathan Ghariani
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In our latest issue of Turkeyscope, Dr. Jonathan Ghariani highlights Turkey’s growing dominance in post-Asad Syria, backed by Qatar’s economic and diplomatic support. Ankara’s military interventions target Kurdish forces and capitalize on the diminished role of Iran. Increased Qatari and Turkish influence in Syria may heighten tensions with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Syrian War, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Bashar al-Assad, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Syria, and Qatar

62. Turkey and Israel – Cooperation through Gritted Teeth

Author:: Joseph Epstein
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In the shadow of Israel's Operation "Rising Lion" against Iran, the latest edition of Turkeyscope features Joseph Epstein's analysis of recent developments in Israeli-Turkish relations. Azerbaijan's mediation, pragmatic signals from Syria's new leadership, and strong U.S. encouragement are helping both nations identify mutual interests.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Syrian War, and Mediation
Political Geography:: Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Syria, and United States of America

63. Öcalan's Call for the Dissolution of the PKK and the Regional Context

Author:: Gülistan Gürbey
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In our latest edition of Turkeyscope, Dr. Gülistan Gürbey addresses the regional implications of the recent call by PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan to dissolve the PKK. The article gives the domestic context of this move and focuses on what it means for the Syrian Kurdish area, also known as Rojava.
Topic:: Non State Actors, Kurds, PKK, Rojava, and Abdullah Ocalan
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Syria, and Kurdistan

64. From Syria to the Black Sea: Containing Russia, Partnering with Turkey?

Author:: Bernard Siman
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The outcome of the Russo-Turkish power competition in Syria will impact the balance of power in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Black Sea. This, in turn, will impact the outcome of any peace negotiations with Ukraine and its relative position in the Black Sea. The future of Syria very much matters for the EU, therefore. Because blunting Russia’s attempts at achieving dominance over the Black Sea will play an important role in Europe’s security. And because the Syrian coast is only 300KM from Cyprus, the EU’s southeastern most border. Syria is the EU’s neighbour for all intents and purposes. In Syria, the Eastern Mediterranean, and the Black Sea, Turkey and the EU finally have a key strategic objective in common.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Strategic Competition, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Turkey, Syria, and Black Sea

65. Stepping up Engagement in the Sahel: Russia, China, Turkey and the Gulf States

Author:: Nina Wilén
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Over the past five years, since the latest wave of coups began in 2020, states in the Sahel have strategically realigned and shifted external partnerships. Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger suspended their security collaboration with their long-term ally, France, following their respective coups between 2020 and 2023, and demanded for the immediate withdrawal of French troops while advancing a new narrative of sovereignty. In 2023 Mali’s regime ousted the decade-long, 13,000 troops-strong UN peacekeeping mission in the country, MINUSMA, while Niger expelled the EU’s two security and defense missions, one of which had been deployed since 2012. A few months later, Niger also broke off a decade-long defense partnership with the US. In a second wave of expulsion, yet different in manner and context, Chad, Senegal and Ivory Coast also suspended military collaboration with France in 2024. This recent expulsion of Western and multilateral partners has been accompanied by a turn by Sahelian states to old and new, predominantly authoritarian, actors. This shift reflects an effort by the military regimes to project independence, diversify their partners and ultimately maintain their hold on power. Traditional partners like China and Russia have intensified economic and security relationships with their Sahelian partners during the past few years, while newer partners like Turkey and the Gulf states have increased their presence and influence in the region through infrastructure projects, arms exports and natural resource deals. At the same time, the exit by the AES states from the regional organisation ECOWAS has resulted in both new partnerships and new tensions among member states, profoundly reshaping the regional landscape. This article, the second in a two-part series examining the security and political context in the Sahel, explores these evolving partnerships with non-Western actors, focusing in particular on the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. It examines the broader lines of cooperation and engagement by Russia, China, Turkey and the Gulf states and identifies both similarities and important differences in their approaches. The aim is to provide a clearer overview of the Sahel’s shifting international relationships and to deepen our understanding of the dynamics, tensions and strategic choices among non-Western partners. differences and tensions between the non-Western partners. With a growing number of external actors competing for influence in the Sahel, Europe must base its recalibrated (re)engagement on a solid understanding of these dynamics.
Topic:: Politics, Coup, Engagement, and Security Partnerships
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Turkey, Asia, Sahel, and Gulf Nations

66. Having your cake and eating it too? Can and should Turkey’s defence industrial technological base benefit from the European Union’s Rearmament?

Author:: Antonis Kamaras
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: Since landing ships, made in Turkish shipyards in order to enable the invasion of Cyprus, reached their designated beachheads on the 20th of July of 1974, the Turkish defence technological industrial base (TDTIB) has been locked in a see saw pattern. From the late 1960’s to today the TDTIB has advanced in order to enable Turkey to exercise strategic autonomy. The very exercise of this strategic autonomy has recurrently caused ruptures with Turkey’s western allies. These ruptures have, in turn, disrupted the industrial partnerships on which the TDTIB depends. This pattern is experiencing a historic high currently with the TDTIB’s product range, which includes sophisticated UAVs and naval ships being employed by Turkey in support of an aggressive challenge of European interests, and most prominently in a comprehensive challenge of Greek rights, solidly established under UNCLOS, to an exclusive economic zone and to the laying of a subsea electricity cable linking Greece with Cyprus. At the same time, due to the European Union’ s (EU) rearmament effort, and the possibility of third countries participating in it, already provided from in the SAFE funding facility, the TDTIB has the opportunity to further grow in volume and sophistication. This policy paper will argue that this opportunity should be denied to the TDTIB both on the basis of past behavior of Turkey but also on solid evidence of the current and future priorities of the Erdogan regime. As in the past nearly sixty years, it is clear that the current Turkish leadership prioritises the exercise of its strategic autonomy, facilitated by the TDTIB, and not the TDTIB’s participation in the EU’s rearmament. Such a prioritization makes structurally unstable the relationship, and in particular highly prone to disruption, between the TDTIB and the EU’s rearmament effort. Additionally, the participation of the TDTIB in the EU’s rearmament effort by boosting the capacity of Turkey to challenge Greece’s and Cyprus’ sovereign rights, corrodes the principles of collective security, and thus undermines the ability of the EU to mobilise the collective resources necessary for its own strategic autonomy. Thus the TDTIB neither can nor should participate in the EU’s rearmament effort.
Topic:: Science and Technology, European Union, Defense Industry, Strategic Autonomy, and Rearmament
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

67. Indispensable Enemies: The Shifting Dynamics of Israeli–Turkish Relations

Author:: Ioannis N. Grigoriadis and Electra Nisidou
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: This study explores the dynamics of Israeli–Turkish relations amidst two pivotal conflicts: the war in Gaza, where Turkey has vocally supported the Palestinian side, and the Syrian crisis, where both countries maintain significant territorial and strategic stakes. While Turkey and Israel operate from distinct ideological and strategic positions, their interactions are neither those of allies nor outright adversaries, but rather of two regional powers navigating overlapping challenges. The analysis highlights how these conflicts reveal a duality in their relationship characterized by ideological divergence in Gaza and pragmatic considerations in Syria, offering insights into their complex coexistence within the rapidly shifting Middle Eastern landscape. Turkey was among the first Muslim-majority countries to recognize Israel in 1949, establishing early diplomatic ties grounded in Turkey’s pro-Western orientation and NATO ambitions. The rise of the AKP and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in the 2000s gradually transformed Turkish foreign policy, emphasizing solidarity with the Muslim world and a more vocal defence of the Palestinian cause. Divergences over Gaza, Syria, and energy politics in the Eastern Mediterranean further strained relations, while shared economic interests and US mediation prevented a complete breakdown. The 2023–2025 Gaza war became a defining moment, with Turkey’s strong condemnation of Israel paired with pragmatic economic continuity and, later, participation in the peace process. For the first time, many Israelis and Turks saw Turkey and Israel respectively as one of their country’s key security threats. The likelihood of direct conflict between Israel and Turkey has substantially decreased, as both states prioritize stability, reconstruction, and regional influence over open rivalry. While ideological and rhetorical tensions persist, Israeli–Turkish relations are entering a new phase characterized by pragmatic coexistence, mutual recognition, and shared regional responsibilities.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Regional Power, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

68. Turkish Foreign Policy and the Kosovo War: Discussions on the Kosovo Issue in the Grand National Assembly of Turkey (1998-1999)

Author:: Majlinda Misini and Ibrahim Gashi
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: The Balkans were one of the most important issues on Turkey's foreign policy agenda during the 1990s. When the war in Kosovo began, Ankara adopted an active policy, demonstrating that, as a Balkan country, Turkey embraced the Kosovo issue, took responsibility for it, and fulfilled its moral obligations. In line with its geostrategic partners, the Turkish state emphasised the need to reduce tensions and balance the demands of the parties involved, initially adopting a moderate stance in relation to other potential political solutions for Kosovo. However, as Serbian repercussions in Kosovo increased, Turkey reconsidered its foreign policy, adopting a tougher stance on the Kosovo issue. This article examines the influence of these actors on the final positioning of Turkey, highlighting discussions on the Kosovo issue in the Grand National Assembly of Turkey.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, History, Media, and Kosovo War
Political Geography:: Turkey, Kosovo, and Balkans

69. Untangling the Knot: The Stakes of Slowing Down the Kurdish Settlement in Turkey

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: The resolution of the Kurdish issue in Turkey is progressing slowly due to divisions among the opposing groups, some of which have external ties. However, the Turkish leadership seems committed to achieving a historic settlement.
Topic:: Domestic Politics, Kurds, PKK, and Peace Process
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

70. La délation en Turquie (2006-2021) - Un dispositif de surveillance et de répression

Author:: Ayşen Uysal
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
Abstract:: Fieldwork on denunciation in Turkey in contemporary times allows us to understand the way in which the Justice and Development Party (AKP) governs, the different forms of surveillance it relies on, the range of its repressive repertoire and the strategies and ruses of power, as well as its ability to reproduce obedience and to penetrate society. This research exposes the multiple functions of denunciation, as a political technique and a practice of self-discipline and punishment, and the Presidential Communication Center (CIMER), the control apparatus which centralizes the system of denunciation. This research focuses on the reports collected by CIMER, the dedicated entity for denunciations. It examines its archives directly through certain institutions and looks at three written sources: the archives of trial files collected from certain law firms; parliamentary documents, especially written questions from deputies; and press coverage. Additionally, it draws from semi-structured interviews with the victims of the denunciation, as well as with lawyers, to provide further insight.
Topic:: Domestic Politics, Surveillance, Political Science, Repression, and AKP
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

71. Turkey, Far and Near

Author:: Zuzana Kutišová, Mesut Özcan, Veysel Ok, and Tereza Engelová
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Vaclav Havel Library
Abstract:: After a century of building a secular state and having recent hopes for EU membership, Turkey, our ally, embarked on a path of harsh repression against political opposition and civil society. Unless it was hit by an earthquake, or we were heading for its beaches, we took virtually zero interest in Turkey. Ready to convince us that this had been a mistake, and that it had been important to monitor the country and keep it as close to Europe as possible, especially in that turbulent world, were Zuzana Kutišová, a PhD student in the Department of Middle Eastern Studies at Charles University in Prague, and, remotely, Prof. Burak Bilgehan Özpek, a political scientist at TOBB University of Economics and Technology and a respected expert on Turkish politics and foreign policy, and Veysel Ok, a lawyer for many journalists in Turkey and Co-Director of the Media and Law Studies Association. It was moderated by Tereza Engelová, journalist and documentary filmmaker.
Topic:: Civil Society, European Union, Domestic Politics, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

72. EU–Türkiye Defense Cooperation: Why Now—and How Far?

Author:: Kadri Tastan, Martin Quencez, Georgina Wright, and Galip Dalay
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: For decades, Europe’s security framework has rested on NATO and, above all, US leadership. That framework is now under pressure. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has upended assumptions about lasting peace on the continent, while Donald Trump’s return to the White House has reignited European concerns about the reliability of American security commitments. In an urgent response to these developments, defense and security top the EU agenda. Member states are significantly increasing military spending, and Brussels has launched the €800 billion Re-Arm Europe initiative, an ambitious effort to strengthen Europe’s defense capacity and reduce dependence on external powers. Leaders are also working to build new coalitions inside NATO through the emerging “European pillar” and outside the alliance via bilateral and multilateral frameworks such as the Franco-British initiative to provide Ukraine with security guarantees. A central question emerges as EU moves to increase its strategic autonomy: Who fits within this new security architecture? While Norway and the United Kingdom are generally seen as natural partners, Türkiye’s role remains more ambiguous. This raises a key unresolved issue about the country’s position in Europe’s evolving security architecture. Türkiye is not just another partner. As a NATO member state, it occupies a strategic crossroads linking Europe, the Middle East, and the Black Sea. It has played an active role in supporting Ukraine militarily and has developed a sizable, increasingly sophisticated defense industry. But despite these strengths, Türkiye’s relations with the EU remain complex and often tense. Political disagreements, normative differences, the unresolved Cyprus conflict, and enduring Greek-Turkish rivalries continue to restrict formal cooperation. Moreover, the Türkiye-EU relationship is undergoing a deep structural shift. In the past, ties were largely shaped by shared responses to external threats and hopes of closer integration. Links today are increasingly defined by the dynamics of a multipolar global order, the declining influence of the geopolitical West, and EU’s efforts to redefine its identity and role, internally and externally. Türkiye and EU are repositioning themselves in global politics, and this realignment will shape the future of their interactions. This report does not merely describe the state of Türkiye-EU defense ties. It analyzes the impact of historical legacies, great-power competition, and shifting regional dynamics on reshaping the foundation of the relationship between the two. It probes core strategic questions: What role will Türkiye play in Europe’s emerging security framework? What are the long-term costs and benefits of deeper defense cooperation? And how can this cooperation be embedded within a normative framework acceptable to both sides?
Topic:: Security, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

73. 2000’ler Türkiye’sinde Hukuk, İktidar ve Toplumsal Hareketler: Bir Eylem ve Olağanüstü Hal Mekanı Olarak Adliyeler

Author:: Gülçin Yüksel
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:: Altinbas University
Abstract:: Bu çalışmada, hukuk, iktidar ve toplumsal hareketler arasındaki ilişkiler incelenmektedir. Bu bağlamda adliye önü bir eylem ve protesto alanı olarak analiz edilmektedir. Hukuk ya da yargı kurumunu eleştiren ve bu kurumlara güvenmediklerini dile getiren adliye önü eylemcilerinin aynı kurumlardan adalet talep etmekten neden vazgeçmedikleri sorusu araştırılmaktadır. Adliye önlerinde eylem düzenlendiği gözlenen kadın cinayeti, iş cinayeti ve siyasi davalar için toplanan bu eylemcilerin Bourdieu’cü anlamda “yargısal alanın” kendilerine özgü sermayeleri olan yeni “oyuncuları” oldukları gözlemlenmiştir. Eylemciler aynı zamanda, yargısal alanın dönüşümünde önemli bir rol oynama ve hukuku daha toplumsal kılma potansiyeli taşımaktadırlar. Protestolara sahne olan adliyeler Agamben’in “kamp” kavramı çerçevesinde yasanın askıya alındığı bir olağanüstü hal mekanı olarak analiz edilmektedir. Agamben’in Antik Roma Hukuku’ndan ödünç aldığı “Homo Sacer”, kamp olarak kavramsallaştırılan mekanın “kurban edilemeyen fakat öldürülmesi ceza gerektirmeyen” sakinlerini tanımlamaktadır. Adliye önü eylemcileri ve protestolara konu olan davaların özneleri de bu çerçevede “Homo Sacer” olarak analiz edilmektedir. Çalışma kapsamında nitel araştırma yöntemleri kullanılmış, yarı yapılandırılmış derinlemesine görüşmeler ve katılımcı gözlemler gerçekleştirilmiştir. Araştırmada, eylemcilerin yasalarının uygulanmasının önemine vurgu yaptığı, yasanın uygulanmasındaki çeşitli aşamalara dahil olarak yargısal alanın aktör, özne ve oyuncularına dönüştüğü, davaların prosedürü ifade eden bir “kağıt” işleminden ya da “tiyatro”da ibaret kalmaması için davaların toplumsal ve siyasal yönlerinin altını çizmeye çalıştıkları gözlemlenmiştir.
Topic:: Sociology, Social Movement, Protests, Judiciary, and State of Exception
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

74. Dünyada ve Türkiye'de Zaman Kapsülleri'nin Gelişimi

Author:: Mutlu Erbay
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:: Altinbas University
Abstract:: Bu çalışma, zaman kapsülleri konusunu gündeme getirerek bu konuya dikkat çekmeyi hedeflemektedir. Makalede, zaman kapsüllerinin Amerikalılar ve Türkler için sosyo-kültürel açıdan önemi vurgulanmakta ve önemli örnekler ele alınmaktadır. Zaman kapsülleri, Amerikan kültüründe hatırlama, hatırlatma ve anma yöntemi olarak kullanılmaktadır. Hatıraların anılması, düşünülmesine ve bu yolla anlamlandırılmasına sebep olur. Kültürler, kendi öz hedeflerine yönelik hatırlatma ve hatırlamalar yapabilmektedir. Bu hatırlamalar, geçmişi gelecek kuşaklara tanıtır ve aktarmada önemli bir rol oynar. Zaman kapsülleri, geleceğe gönderilen mektuplar aracılığıyla gelecek temennilerini yansıtmakta; kişilerin ve kurumların geleceği öngörme ve şekillendirme çabalarını simgelemektedir. Yeni açılan bir fabrika, yeni üretilen bir ürün, borsa için yazılan mektuplar, yeni hammadde üretimleri veya uzaya gönderilen yeni araçlar gibi çeşitli sebeplerle zaman kapsülleri hazırlanabilmektedir. Amerika Birleşik Devletleri'nde devlet kurumları, yüksek enstitüler ve fabrikalar tarafından zaman kapsülleri oluşturulmakta, kayda geçirilmekte ve belirlenen tarihte açılması planlanmaktadır. Zaman kapsülleri, Amerikan tarihinin önemli kültürel davranışlarından biri olarak kabul edilmektedir. Aşağıdaki makalede, önemli zaman kapsülleri ele alınarak incelenmiştir. Gelecekte açılmak üzere hazırlanan bu kapsüller, geleceğe bir not düşmekte ve bu yönüyle geleceği planlama ve öngörme amacı taşımaktadır. Türkiye’de de hazırlanmış zaman kapsülleri mevcuttur. Çalışma, bu örneklere de kısaca değinerek zaman kapsüllerinin Türk kültüründeki yeri ve önemini ortaya koymaktadır.
Topic:: Culture, Memory, Tradition, and Time Capsules
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

75. Surveillance Capitalism in Fragile Democracies: Defending Journalism from Dual Domination

Author:: Emre Kizilkaya
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: This paper investigates how surveillance capitalism enables a convergence of state authoritarianism and digital monopolies, posing an existential threat to fragile democracies by examining its corrosive effects on the news media in Turkey and Hungary. Drawing on document analysis and interviews with 24 journalists and media executives, it argues that a system of “dual domination” has emerged, wherein the state-led construction of an “economy of domination” through media capture and legal repression is amplified by the market-driven “instrumentarian power” of Big Tech platforms like Google. This symbiotic relationship creates a uniquely corrosive environment that systematically dismantles the free press, pollutes the information ecosystem with propaganda and disinformation, and makes independent journalism economically unviable. The analysis, framed by Shoshana Zuboff’s theories, concludes that this dynamic constitutes a “Second Tragedy of the Commons” and a slow-motion coup des gens, seizing sovereignty from the public and eroding the “right to the future tense.” In response, the paper proposes a framework for solutions grounded in Mathias Risse’s concept of justice, advocating for two pillars of action: first, the establishment of journalism as a legally protected global public good, and second, the formation of a global civic alliance to enforce structural and regulatory reforms that hold tech platforms accountable for their role in democratic backsliding.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Authoritarianism, Reform, Media, Journalism, Democratic Backsliding, Digital Platforms, and Surveillance Capitalism
Political Geography:: Turkey, Hungary, and Global Focus

76. Coal, Oil, Gas, and Nuclear: Risks in Turkey’s Growing Energy Demands

Author:: Mustafa Enes Esen
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Without further diversification of suppliers, expanded renewable capacity, strategic investments in LNG, and nuclear partnerships beyond Russia, Turkey risks exchanging one form of energy dependency for another.
Topic:: Gas, Diversification, Supply Chains, Nuclear Energy, and Energy
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

77. Media Representation of ‘Diyarbakır Mothers’: A Cross-Newspaper Comparison and Analysis

Author:: Halime Kökce
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Journal of Middle Eastern Studies
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: In today's world, the media plays a powerful role in shaping perspectives on social issues. The portrayal of the ‘Diyarbakır Mothers’ in the media highlights a critical area of research on the media's influence on social perception. This study examines how four different newspapers (Yeni Şafak, Sözcü, Sabah and Cumhuriyet) represent the ‘Diyarbakır Mothers’ and explores the media's impact on shaping social perception. To achieve this, the language used by these newspapers, their headline choices, and their news content are examined through discourse analysis, aiming to uncover the media's stance on this issue. By employing this method, the linguistic choices and narrative strategies within the news articles are assessed to understand how they shape the public perception of this topic. By analyzing the language, headline choices, and content of these news articles, the study aims to reveal the media's stance on this issue. This analysis offers valuable insights into the political orientations of these newspapers, their influence on social perceptions, and the strategies they use to engage their audiences. Ultimately, this study helps us understand the diversity in how the ‘Diyarbakır Mothers’ are portrayed in the media and prompts us to question the role of media in shaping social issues.
Topic:: Media, News Analysis, Representation, Society, Perception, and Diyarbakır Mothers
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Diyarbakır

78. To Halt the Jihadist Advance in Somalia, Work with Turkey and the UAE

Author:: Ido Levy
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Overhauled Turkish and Emirati training programs for the Somali army and renewed funding for the African Union mission could provide the boost that Mogadishu needs, and Washington should push for both. n July 27, the al-Qaeda-affiliated jihadist group al-Shabab seized the town of Mahas in central Somalia. For the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS), the loss of Mahas after a series of defeats is particularly stinging, as the town was liberated by African Union (AU) and government forces in 2014. Al-Shabab’s latest onslaught, which began earlier this year, has brought it additional territories around the capital. The empowered al-Qaeda affiliate is also still bent on attacking U.S. interests around the world. Last year, a federal court convicted an al-Shabab operative in New York of plotting a “9/11-style attack,” and in 2023, U.S. authorities charged an American citizen arrested in Kenya for attempting to join al-Shabab to attack the United States. Moreover, the UN has reported a budding tactical relationship in which the Yemeni Houthis transfer weapons and know-how to al-Shabab, while the Somali group agrees to ramp up piracy to support Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping. Seizing more territory in Somalia gives al-Shabab additional resources and infrastructure for such activities abroad.
Topic:: Security, Training, Jihad, and Al-Shabaab
Political Geography:: Africa, Turkey, Middle East, Somalia, and United Arab Emirates

79. Place, Loneliness, and Existence: The Phenomenology of Space in About Dry Grasses from the Perspectives of Heidegger and Merleau-Ponty

Author:: Evren Günevi Uslu
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Academic Inquiries
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: Studies on the representation of space in cinema have gained conceptual depth particularly since the 2000s, influenced by thinkers such as Gilles Deleuze, Michel Foucault, and Henri Lefebvre. This study examines how the Anatolian steppe is represented as a phenomenological ground in Nuri Bilge Ceylan’s film About Dry Grasses (2023). In the film, space is not merely a physical backdrop for the narrative but functions as a lived domain that shapes the characters’ existential orientation, temporal perception, and ethical positioning. Drawing on Edmund Husserl’s concepts of the “lived body” (Leib) and the “lifeworld” (Lebenswelt), as well as Maurice Merleau Ponty’s notions of “chiasm” (intertwining) and “embodiment,” the study analyzes the tactile, visual, and temporal relationship between character and space. The research is conducted using a qualitative methodology. Six visual frames selected from the film are analyzed through the lens of phenomenological film analysis. Each scene is examined in terms of framing, color, tactility, intentionality, and ethical-political dimensions, and these analyses are contextualized within the film’s broader narrative structure. The findings indicate that in About Dry Grasses, the steppe is not simply a spatial setting, but an active component that shapes the characters’ psychic and bodily existence. The film renders space as a perceptible, resistant, and directive ground, transforming the viewer from a passive observer into an embodied perceiver. In this respect, the study opens a phenomenological discussion of spatial perception in Turkish cinema and offers an original contribution to the notion of “sensory thinking” in film analysis.
Topic:: Cinema, Phenomenology, Embodiment, and Nuri Bilge Ceylan
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

80. Exploring Reflections of the 2023 Kahramanmaraş Earthquake on X: A Computational Study on Türkiye and Syria

Author:: Sadettin Demirel, Zindan Çakıcı, and Neslihan Bulur
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Academic Inquiries
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: Earthquakes are multidimensional phenomena that disrupt socio-structural systems and erode collective resilience frameworks. Social media acts as a vital platform for information dissemination and communication within such contexts. The Kahramanmaraş earthquakes of February 6, 2023, induced significant physical and demographic consequences across Türkiye and Syria. A review of existing literature indicates a disproportionate emphasis on Türkiye within communication studies, with minimal attention to Syria or comparative analyses between the two nations. This study conducts a comparative analysis of social media discourse on the February 6, 2023, earthquakes in Türkiye and Syria. Employing computational techniques, including sentiment analysis, textual analysis, and network analysis, over 256,227 tweets were examined to identify dominant themes, linguistic patterns, and sentiment polarity shifts. The analysis reveals distinct differences in social media reflections of Türkiye and Syria. Discourse on Türkiye primarily addressed rescue operations and infrastructural damage, while content on Syria centered on humanitarian crises and political constraints affecting disaster response. Posts related to Syria exhibited a higher proportion of negative sentiment. This research contributed an empirical framework for examining the dynamics of public discourse during earthquake crises and clarifies the interrelationship between social media narratives and socio-political structures in contexts characterized by fragile state.
Topic:: Social Media, Fragile States, Earthquake, Comparative Analysis, and Computational Techniques
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

81. A New Concept in Public Relations: A Systematic Review on "Corporate Social Advocacy"

Author:: Beris Artan Özoran and Aycan Ulusan
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Academic Inquiries
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: The increasing public demand for brands to contribute to the creation of a ‘more livable world’ has played a critical role in shaping the transformation of corporate strategies centered around corporate social advocacy. This shift has also necessitated further academic inquiry into the subject. In this context, this study aims to offer both a conceptual evaluation of corporate social advocacy and a systematic review of academic research conducted in this field. The findings suggest that corporate social advocacy is gaining substantial prominence in both corporate and academic contexts. However, the review also identifies notable methodological gaps within the existing body of literature. Furthermore, an important observation is that the majority of studies focus predominantly on U.S. corporations and societal issues, leading to a body of literature that is largely constrained to the U.S. context.
Topic:: Public Relations, Corporations, Social Responsibility, and Systematic Review
Political Geography:: Turkey and Global Focus

82. Expectations of Young People from Business Life: A Gender and Equality Perspective

Author:: M. Murat Erdoğan
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: Understanding the expectations of young people regarding business life requires not only learning about their needs and priorities, but also taking into account the social context in which these expectations are shaped. Although Türkiye’s young population has a great potential with its dynamic structure, it is imperative to think about how this potential is shaped and how it can be utilised. Especially from the perspective of gender equality, it is impossible not to notice the different priorities of young women and men in their expectations from work. These differences should be read as a reflection of economic and cultural inequalities, geographical differences and even intergenerational values… Therefore, understanding what young people expect from business life provides an opportunity to better understand both inequalities in the labour market and the dynamics of social transformation.
Topic:: Business, Youth, Labor Market, and Gender Equality
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

83. Skills for the Future through the Lens of Gender Equality

Author:: Özgenur Korlu
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: This policy brief addresses the future skills debate in Turkey from a gender equality perspective and offers recommendations to improve the situation. In an era of multiple crises, it is increasingly difficult to envision the future and future skills, and this places a significant burden on education systems. In the context of future skills, gender equality issues in Turkey are not so much related to girls’ acquisition of these skills, but rather to their low post-graduation labor force participation rates despite their skills. Ensuring gender equality in education can play a critical role in addressing these challenges. Against this backdrop, this brief provides a roadmap for the Turkish education system to strengthen gender equality in education based on the findings of PISA 2022.
Topic:: Education, Labor Market, Gender Equality, and Child Policy
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

84. Budgets Allocated to Disasters and Risk Reduction by Metropolitan Municipalities Before and After February 6 Earthquake

Author:: Kamu Harcamalarını İzleme Platformu (KAHİP)
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: Disasters such as earthquakes, floods and forest fires in recent years have brought disaster and disaster risk reduction issues to the agenda in Türkiye. This study aims to examine the budgets of 30 metropolitan municipalities and water-sewerage authorities in areas such as pre-disaster risk reduction and post-disaster response. In line with this objective, the performance programs of metropolitan municipalities and water-sewerage authorities for the years 2022, 2023 and 2024 have been examined.
Topic:: Natural Disasters, Governance, Budget, Accountability, Urban, Transparency, Sustainability, and Earthquake
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

85. Gendered Structure of the Labour Market, Jobs of the Future and Barriers to Women’s Employment

Author:: Fikret Toksöz
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: In this policy report, the current state of the labour market in Türkiye will first be discussed by revealing the existing gender inequalities. Then, official policies to increase women’s employment will be examined. Then, discussions on the understanding of care work as a social responsibility for an equitable and sustainable development and future, and the opportunities of green jobs and digital jobs for women’s employment will be presented through United Nations and European Union documents. Finally, an answer will be sought to the question of what are the opportunities for women in Türkiye, taking into account the current structure of green jobs, digital jobs and care work.
Topic:: Women, Employment, Labor Market, Jobs, and Gender Equality
Political Geography:: Turkey and European Union

86. Fault Lines in Disaster Management: Risk Reduction and Response Preparedness in Mersin

Author:: Ulaş Bayraktar
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: The report prepared within the scope of Developing a Model for Data-Driven Disaster Governance in Municipalities Project carried out by TESEV with the support of the Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands’ MATRA Fund, seeks to evaluate the disaster management efforts undertaken in Mersin. To this end, the report first examines the official disaster management approach and then reviews the existing plans and practices related to disaster management in Mersin while aiming to address disaster management not only as technical expertise but also as a democratic and pluralistic governance practice.
Topic:: Climate Change, Natural Disasters, Governance, Urban, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Mersin

87. The Power of Transformative Skills: A Guide to Empowering the Next Generation

Author:: H. Ceren Zeytinoğlu
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: Unlike traditional “soft skills,” transformative skills encompass not only effective communication and social behavior but also cognitive flexibility, emotional resilience, mental well-being, and personal growth. They are the foundation of a strong internal infrastructure that helps individuals adapt and lead in a rapidly changing world.
Topic:: Resilience, Labor Market, Skills, and Gender Equality
Political Geography:: Turkey and Global Focus

88. Understanding the Complexities of the Eastern Mediterranean Hydrocarbon Puzzle by Regional Security Complex Theory

Author:: Jude Alabi and Can Kakişim
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: The discovered hydrocarbon reserves throughout the Eastern Mediterranean hold enormous economic promise but have also increased regional geopolitical tensions. However, the discovery of reserves has failed to advance regional cooperation in the region due to pre-existing territorial conflicts and closed security alliances. Regional Security Complex Theory (RSCT) helps this study understand how security connections in the area determine energy politics by explaining the failure of economic benefits to transcend historical conflicts. This research shows that the securitization process of hydrocarbon resources created new conflicts that generated maritime military disputes and formed special alliances. The Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum demonstrates how security issues supplant economic advantages since it excludes Türkiye from membership, thereby impeding the creation of an all-encompassing regional energy framework. The research adds value to existing knowledge about energy governance by underscoring the influence of state and non-state forces in the region’s energy sector. According to the analysis, energy diplomacy cannot solve geopolitical conflicts because security concerns need broader political structures for resolution. The Eastern Mediterranean hydrocarbon resources will continue to be a source of regional dispute if no comprehensive solutions are implemented.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Geopolitics, Hydrocarbons, Securitization, Energy, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: Turkey and Eastern Mediterranean

89. Spatial Context of Ontological Security in Foreign Policy Analysis: The Case of Türkiye’s Blue Homeland Policy

Author:: Yumuşak Güç
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: The concept of ontological security in foreign policy analysis (FPA) and International Relations highlights that states seek not only physical but also existential security. States, like individuals, aim to perceive themselves as meaningful entities and create stable identities through consistent routines and biographical narratives. These narratives are formed from collective memories and help the state maintain historical continuity and identity. However, FPA studies often overlook the importance of space, a crucial factor emphasized in psychological studies on individual ontological security. Space contributes to feelings of consistency, control, status, autonomy, and identity. This study explores the significance of space for a state’s ontological security in foreign policy, using Türkiye’s “Blue Homeland” (Mavi Vatan) policy as a case study. Türkiye’s ambitious maritime policy, involving activities like natural gas exploration and military exercises, reflects its quest for physical and ontological security. The Blue Homeland policy not only addresses physical security but also Türkiye’s need for ontological security through its discourses, symbols, and narratives. This study aims to introduce the spatial dimension into FPA’s ontological security approach and analyze Türkiye’s Blue Homeland policy through this new lens.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Autonomy, and Blue Homeland Policy
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

90. Syrian Refugees in Turkey: Between Reception and Integration

Author:: Ramiz Abbaszada
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: In the last decade, the influx of over 3.5 million Syrian refugees has profoundly reshaped the dynamics of global migration governance (European Commission 2024). One of the most comprehensive studies on this topic is Syrian Refugees in Turkey: Between Reception and Integration by Zeynep Şahin-Mencütek, N. Ela Gökalp-Aras, Ayhan Kaya, and Susan Beth Rottmann. This work presents a critical analysis of Turkey’s multifaceted response to Syrian mass migration from 2011 to 2020, introducing the concept of “strategic temporality” to frame its analysis. Beginning with the theoretical framework of strategic temporality, this six-chapter work explores Turkey’s legislative and political context, analyses reception practices, i.e. an in-depth analysis of protection mechanisms and a study of integration processes, and ends with considerations of the broader implications of these responses.
Topic:: Refugees, Book Review, Syrian War, and Integration
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

91. The Fading of Old Irritants: U.S.–Türkiye Relations in a Post–Assad Landscape

Author:: Adam Weinstein and Steven Simon
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: The U.S.–Türkiye relationship today is a fraught partnership marked by discord and strategic misalignment — particularly within the context of the Syrian Civil War but long before it as well. With the fading of old irritants in a post–Assad Syrian political landscape, a more stable and cooperative U.S.–Türkiye relationship is possible — an opportunity the Trump administration should seize. The United States and Türkiye, though NATO allies, have historically lacked the shared values that make the transactionalism inherent in alliance frameworks easier to manage. As such, tensions have arisen when the strategic interests of each country or domestic politics have diverged. The Syrian Civil War, particularly since the emergence of the ISIS caliphate in 2014, illustrated this division starkly. While initially supportive of the mission to defeat ISIS in Syria, Türkiye became disillusioned with the military campaign once the United States partnered with the Kurdish–led People’s Protection Units, or YPG. To Türkiye, the YPG is an extension of the Kurdistan Workers Party, or PKK, a militant Kurdish group that the country has fought since the early 1980s and views as an existential challenge. This misalignment of primary objectives in Syria created a fraught dynamic between the U.S. and Türkiye. In December 2024, Bashar al–Assad’s regime fell following a successful military campaign by Hay`at Tahrir al–Sham, or HTS, a Sunni Islamist group with close ties to Türkiye. While HTS’s rule moving forward is precarious, the United States and Türkiye share a common interest in preventing renewed civil strife in Syria. A resumed war could create another wave of asylum migration to Türkiye and beyond, stimulate deeper Israeli involvement, renew Iranian attempts to influence developments, and run counter to a broadly shared international interest in a unitary Syrian state. President Trump has expressed a desire to withdraw American troops from Syria and a willingness to permit greater Turkish influence in northern Syria. To advance a more cooperative U.S.–Türkiye relationship, this brief recommends the following: The Trump administration should establish a formal working group with Türkiye on Syria, bringing together intelligence, military, diplomatic, and economic channels. Türkiye and Kurdish groups should engage in backchannel diplomacy to promote Kurdish integration into a functioning Syrian state and protect the Kurds against human rights abuses. The United States and Türkiye should rebuild strategic trust through targeted defense cooperation, resuming U.S. arms sales to Türkiye contingent on its cooperation in Syria and Iraq, and expanding U.S.–Türkiye joint training and NATO exercises. Türkiye and Israel should engage in stabilization dialogue to mitigate tensions over their respective zones of influence in Syria and to coordinate on eastern Mediterranean energy development.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Islamic State, Syrian War, Kurds, and Political Transition
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Syria, North America, and United States of America

92. Neoclassical Geo-strategic Analysis of Türkiye’s Military Operations in Syria and Iraq Till Assad’s Fall

Author:: Kanan Ahmadzada and Ramazan Safa
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Novus Orbis: Journal of Politics & International Relations
Institution:: Department of International Relations, Karadeniz Technical University
Abstract:: This article examines and evaluates the reasons, strategic logic, outcomes, and effectiveness of Türkiye's military operations in northern Syria and Iraq until Assad's fall in 2024 as part of its campaign against Kurdish militant factions, particularly the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). Adopting a neoclassical geostrategic framework, paper treats environmental realities and elite perceptions of the threats and opportunities associated with them as central factors explaining elites' strategic decisions. In this way, it explores the evolution of Türkiye’s military confrontation with PKK and associated groups along with Justice and Development Party (JDP) elites' perceptions of threats and opportunities and ideological leanings of neo-Ottomanism and Turkish-Islamic nationalism. Relying on extensive examination of primary and secondary data, the article argues that Türkiye’s operations in Syria and Iraq are mainly a calculated response to an insecure border reality marked by the expansion of PKK, the humanitarian crisis in Syria, and regional instability amid the Arab Spring. Thus, it is argued that these operations are the results of a preventive strategic logic aimed at countering separatism and terrorism threats, under the imperative of "better now than later" in both Syria and Iraq.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Syrian War, Bashar al-Assad, PKK, Neo-Ottomanism, Preventive Measures, Military Operations, and Neoclassical Geostrategy
Political Geography:: Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

93. A Case of Multi-Dimensional Chess: The Power Game in Syria and the Role of Israel

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Israel’s strategy in Syria requires a delicate balance: bolstering security, supporting allies, countering Turkish expansion, and exploiting shifting dynamics to weaken Hezbollah
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Syrian War, Hezbollah, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Syria

94. Hellenic airspace violations: An updating note

Author:: Vasileios Symeonidis
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: This is a note to update an earlier published paper, which focused on forecasting Hellenic flight information region violations by Turkish aircraft. The update became necessary following certain geopolitical and economic developments in the Mediterranean, mainly the Athens Agreement. The least-squares best fit model for the 2009–2019 data set for Hellenic airspace violations was used, accompanied by additional ordinary least squares estimates and forecasts. We showed that the pattern of pressure on the Hellenic sovereignty described in the above-mentioned paper is now different in terms of the methods exercised; it is also cheaper. However, it is equally, if not more, effective. We interpret this shift by arguing that Turkey is a Political Realism follower, focusing on the importance of power, security, and national interest in shaping its actions, regardless of the ideological or ethical implications of such actions. This explains its preference for exerting pressure in the form of sea border violations and massive forced emigration from Turkey to the European Union via Greece. This note concludes that the pattern of pressure on the Hellenic sovereignty in the Aegean involving Hellenic airspace violations by Turkish aircraft has been modified. Turkey now prefers cheaper but equally effective methods, such as sea border violations and, in most cases, hybrid warfare tactics, like massive forced emigration.
Topic:: Security, Migration, Borders, Emigration, and Airspace
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Greece

95. "A Capital City Will Always Be a Capital City”: Konya’s Rise Under the AKP’s Rule

Author:: Elisa Domingues dos Santos, Jules Liaud, and Dorothee Schmid
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Case Study
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: While the May 2023 parliamentary and presidential elections looked as a difficult test for the flagging Islamo-conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP), they eventually held on to power, demonstrating their remarkable foothold in the Turkish context. The party notably recorded one of its highest scores in Konya, confirming the massive and uninterrupted support of this two-million inhabitants central Anatolian city for Turkish political Islam. The phenomenon can be explained by the benefits that Konya has derived from its relationship with the Islamic movement for several decades. Long marginalized in a provincial space, little connected to Western Turkey’s centers of power, Konya, renowned for its history and religious heritage, became an “Anatolian tiger” under the AKP rule. The province’s economic development started from an agricultural base (Turkey’s cereal granary) enabling the emergence of a local agro-industry. It was driven by dynamic small and medium-sized enterprises, combining conservative values with entrepreneurial efficiency. Forging close ties with the AKP, Konya has benefited from territorial development policies that facilitated its rapid opening to the world. Thanks to its Anatolian identity, central geography, diversity of human flows and capacity to project its economic dynamism into increasingly distant markets (like Africa), Konya has become a showcase for the paradoxical modernity of the new Turkey.
Topic:: Elections, Entrepreneurship, Domestic Politics, and AKP
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Konya

96. Understanding the Energy Drivers of Turkey’s Foreign Policy

Author:: Francesco Siccardi
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Turkey has an energy dependence problem. For the past two decades, Ankara’s energy needs have been on the rise, and they are projected to continue on an upward trajectory until at least 2035. Yet, the country is not endowed with the proven natural resources to support its energy needs, and so it imports almost all of the energy it consumes. This reliance on energy imports creates economic and security constraints for Ankara. On the economic front, strategic decisions to diversify Turkey’s energy market impact the direction and pace of the country’s economic development. On the security front, dependence on foreign energy exposes Turkey to external shocks and creates vulnerabilities that affect the country’s international posture. To Turkish policymakers, this is hardly breaking news. For many decades, successive governments have been considering ways to diversify the country’s energy portfolio with the objective of ensuring access to affordable, reliable energy supplies. Domestically, this goal has translated into continued investments in locally produced power, such as the development of natural gas fields under the Black Sea and the opening of nuclear and coal-fired power plants across the country. Externally, the aim of diversification has led Ankara to forge a wide range of international partnerships and preserve relations with both Western purchasers of Turkish exports and key energy providers, including Russia and countries in Turkey’s immediate neighborhood. What is more, Ankara pursues its energy diplomacy against the backdrop of a broader geopolitical strategy of bolstering Turkey’s status as a regional power based on its geographic position and connections. At the heart of this strategy is a grand plan to establish Turkey as a major natural gas hub that will put the country at the center of regional energy trade. This policy has ramifications for Ankara’s relations with its close and more distant neighbors. Turkey is surrounded by energy-rich countries, and one of its primary objectives when reaching out to them is to secure the conditions for a steady inflow of energy resources—typically, natural gas and oil. This objective can lead to the development of durable economic partnerships, such as with Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Iran; but it can also spark conflicts of different degrees of intensity, such as with Turkey’s Eastern Mediterranean neighbors and Iraq. Beyond its immediate neighborhood, Ankara’s gas diplomacy is consequential for relations with Russia—with which Turkey has been strengthening its energy relations beyond hydrocarbons—and with Europe. On the demand side of Ankara’s natural gas market equation, European countries are thirsty for non-Russian hydrocarbons in the short and medium term and for green energy in the longer term. Turkey has the potential to provide both, as long as it comes up with strong policies that support these energy transitions. To do so, the Turkish government will need to shift its approaches not only to energy but also to geopolitics. Ankara will have to present itself as a reliable energy partner for Europe and ramp up its investment in clean energy technologies. Delinking Turkey’s economic development from its dependence on hydrocarbons will benefit Ankara financially while bringing it closer to its European allies. Building a long-lasting energy partnership with Europe remains one of Turkey’s greatest challenges.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Climate Change, and Economy
Political Geography:: Russia, Iraq, Europe, Iran, Turkey, Caucasus, Middle East, Libya, North Africa, and Egypt

97. Palestine: Public Opinion Report 2023, Part 2

Author:: Khalil Shikaki
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Arab Barometer
Abstract:: Palestinians see the Israeli occupation as the most critical threat facing Palestine and their most preferred countries are Turkey, Qatar, and China. In a comparison between China's and U.S. foreign policies, the Palestinian public views China's policies more positively than those of the U.S. on all issues at hand. Wide-ranging opposition to Arab normalization with Israel remains as strong as it was two years ago, but most express optimism about the world's solidarity with the Palestinians, and the vast majority expresses opposition to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. These are the results of the latest wave of the Arab Barometer (AB) poll in Palestine, the 8th to be conducted since the start of these polls in the Arab World. The poll was conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip essentially during the period immediately before the start of the October the 7th war in the Gaza Strip and its envelop on the Israeli side. The period leading up to the poll witnessed a number of important developments, including the 30th anniversary of the signing of the Oslo Accords. The period saw a rise in the number of Israeli incursions into Palestinian cities and refugee camps, particularly in the northern parts of the West Bank. During this period, Palestinian factional leaders met in City of El Alamein in Egypt in the presence of President Abbas but failed to agree on a joint statement. During this period, settler terrorist acts in Palestinian areas of the West Bank increased, as did armed attacks by Palestinians against settlers and Israelis. Finally, there have been press reports that there are US-Saudi negotiations to reach an agreement to normalize SaudiIsraeli relations and that Palestinian-Saudi and Palestinian-American meetings have been held to set Palestinian conditions for this normalization agreement. This report is the second in a series of reports that cover the findings of the current wave of AB. It addresses one important issues covered by AB8: Palestinian perception of various international and regional actors and other international relations issues. While the focus is placed on the findings of AB8 regarding these topics, the report sets to compare these findings with those obtained by PSR in AB7, conducted two years earlier, and one poll conducted after AB8.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, Normalization, and October 7
Political Geography:: China, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Qatar

98. Hydropolitics in the Middle East

Author:: Elianne Shewring
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: Water scarcity in the Middle East poses a formidable challenge, with far-reaching implications for the region’s ecological balance, socio-economic stability, and security. This policy paper examines Israel’s water policy through an analysis of four case studies, beginning with the Madrid Conference of 1991, and followed by an evaluation of Israel’s bilateral relations with Palestine, Jordan, and Turkey. Three key geopolitical objectives are identified for Israel: securing domestic water resources, fostering Israel’s integration in the region, and promoting long term regional resilience. Hydropolitics emerges as a pragmatic approach to address the complex interplay of interests and grievances surrounding water management in the Middle East, and offers opportunities for dialogue, trust-building, and sustainable resource management. Drawing on historical lessons of hydropolitical initiatives in the region and considering the unique socio-political Middle Eastern landscape, this paper proposes new insights to advance Israel’s objectives and enhance regional stability.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Regional Cooperation, Natural Resources, and Hydropolitics
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Jordan

99. An analysis of the impact of Turkish attacks on Syria on future normalization efforts between the two nations

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: In a televised address after a Cabinet meeting on January 16, 2024, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan confirmed his country's commitment to eliminating what he referred to as "terrorist hideouts" in Syria. These areas extend from Tel Rifaat to Ain al-Arab, and from Hasakah to Manbij. Erdogan stressed, “Our military presence beyond our borders is critical to the national security of our country and for the peace of our citizens. There’s no turning back from this.”
Topic:: Foreign Policy, National Security, Syrian War, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Normalization, Rapprochement, Bashar al-Assad, and PKK
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

100. Socializing IR: Turkish IR Scholars and their Twitter Interactions

Author:: Hakan Mehmetcik, Eric Lease Morgan, and Melih Kölük
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: Online social networking services (Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, etc.) have altered the way we engage with individuals, groups, and communities by profoundly changing our everyday information and communication habits on a global scale. Today, social media has also grown into a massive data repository providing very detailed information on the opinions, beliefs, and communications of millions of individuals. Similarly, social media analysis has grown into an essential method for various fields, including political science and international relations. The purpose of this study is to undertake a nuanced social media analysis using Twitter data to contextualize and assess the context, scope, and impact of Turkish IR scholars’ interactions on Twitter. Within the scope of the paper, network analysis, topic modeling, descriptive statistics, and regression analysis approaches will be employed to draw meaningful interpretations about their Twitter interactions. Our basic premise is that among Turkish IR scholars, there is a collective network that connects them in terms of interactions, attitudes, and opinions, and that network may be found by analyzing their Twitter data. This working assumption is not supported by the findings.
Topic:: International Relations, Social Media, Academia, and Network Analysis
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS