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81. Exploring Reflections of the 2023 Kahramanmaraş Earthquake on X: A Computational Study on Türkiye and Syria

Author:
Sadettin Demirel, Zindan Çakıcı, and Neslihan Bulur
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Academic Inquiries
Institution:
Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:
Earthquakes are multidimensional phenomena that disrupt socio-structural systems and erode collective resilience frameworks. Social media acts as a vital platform for information dissemination and communication within such contexts. The Kahramanmaraş earthquakes of February 6, 2023, induced significant physical and demographic consequences across Türkiye and Syria. A review of existing literature indicates a disproportionate emphasis on Türkiye within communication studies, with minimal attention to Syria or comparative analyses between the two nations. This study conducts a comparative analysis of social media discourse on the February 6, 2023, earthquakes in Türkiye and Syria. Employing computational techniques, including sentiment analysis, textual analysis, and network analysis, over 256,227 tweets were examined to identify dominant themes, linguistic patterns, and sentiment polarity shifts. The analysis reveals distinct differences in social media reflections of Türkiye and Syria. Discourse on Türkiye primarily addressed rescue operations and infrastructural damage, while content on Syria centered on humanitarian crises and political constraints affecting disaster response. Posts related to Syria exhibited a higher proportion of negative sentiment. This research contributed an empirical framework for examining the dynamics of public discourse during earthquake crises and clarifies the interrelationship between social media narratives and socio-political structures in contexts characterized by fragile state.
Topic:
Social Media, Fragile States, Earthquake, Comparative Analysis, and Computational Techniques
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

82. A New Concept in Public Relations: A Systematic Review on "Corporate Social Advocacy"

Author:
Beris Artan Özoran and Aycan Ulusan
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Academic Inquiries
Institution:
Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:
The increasing public demand for brands to contribute to the creation of a ‘more livable world’ has played a critical role in shaping the transformation of corporate strategies centered around corporate social advocacy. This shift has also necessitated further academic inquiry into the subject. In this context, this study aims to offer both a conceptual evaluation of corporate social advocacy and a systematic review of academic research conducted in this field. The findings suggest that corporate social advocacy is gaining substantial prominence in both corporate and academic contexts. However, the review also identifies notable methodological gaps within the existing body of literature. Furthermore, an important observation is that the majority of studies focus predominantly on U.S. corporations and societal issues, leading to a body of literature that is largely constrained to the U.S. context.
Topic:
Public Relations, Corporations, Social Responsibility, and Systematic Review
Political Geography:
Turkey and Global Focus

83. Expectations of Young People from Business Life: A Gender and Equality Perspective

Author:
M. Murat Erdoğan
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
Understanding the expectations of young people regarding business life requires not only learning about their needs and priorities, but also taking into account the social context in which these expectations are shaped. Although Türkiye’s young population has a great potential with its dynamic structure, it is imperative to think about how this potential is shaped and how it can be utilised. Especially from the perspective of gender equality, it is impossible not to notice the different priorities of young women and men in their expectations from work. These differences should be read as a reflection of economic and cultural inequalities, geographical differences and even intergenerational values… Therefore, understanding what young people expect from business life provides an opportunity to better understand both inequalities in the labour market and the dynamics of social transformation.
Topic:
Business, Youth, Labor Market, and Gender Equality
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

84. Skills for the Future through the Lens of Gender Equality

Author:
Özgenur Korlu
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
This policy brief addresses the future skills debate in Turkey from a gender equality perspective and offers recommendations to improve the situation. In an era of multiple crises, it is increasingly difficult to envision the future and future skills, and this places a significant burden on education systems. In the context of future skills, gender equality issues in Turkey are not so much related to girls’ acquisition of these skills, but rather to their low post-graduation labor force participation rates despite their skills. Ensuring gender equality in education can play a critical role in addressing these challenges. Against this backdrop, this brief provides a roadmap for the Turkish education system to strengthen gender equality in education based on the findings of PISA 2022.
Topic:
Education, Labor Market, Gender Equality, and Child Policy
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

85. Budgets Allocated to Disasters and Risk Reduction by Metropolitan Municipalities Before and After February 6 Earthquake

Author:
Kamu Harcamalarını İzleme Platformu (KAHİP)
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
Disasters such as earthquakes, floods and forest fires in recent years have brought disaster and disaster risk reduction issues to the agenda in Türkiye. This study aims to examine the budgets of 30 metropolitan municipalities and water-sewerage authorities in areas such as pre-disaster risk reduction and post-disaster response. In line with this objective, the performance programs of metropolitan municipalities and water-sewerage authorities for the years 2022, 2023 and 2024 have been examined.
Topic:
Natural Disasters, Governance, Budget, Accountability, Urban, Transparency, Sustainability, and Earthquake
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

86. Gendered Structure of the Labour Market, Jobs of the Future and Barriers to Women’s Employment

Author:
Fikret Toksöz
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
In this policy report, the current state of the labour market in Türkiye will first be discussed by revealing the existing gender inequalities. Then, official policies to increase women’s employment will be examined. Then, discussions on the understanding of care work as a social responsibility for an equitable and sustainable development and future, and the opportunities of green jobs and digital jobs for women’s employment will be presented through United Nations and European Union documents. Finally, an answer will be sought to the question of what are the opportunities for women in Türkiye, taking into account the current structure of green jobs, digital jobs and care work.
Topic:
Women, Employment, Labor Market, Jobs, and Gender Equality
Political Geography:
Turkey and European Union

87. Fault Lines in Disaster Management: Risk Reduction and Response Preparedness in Mersin

Author:
Ulaş Bayraktar
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
The report prepared within the scope of Developing a Model for Data-Driven Disaster Governance in Municipalities Project carried out by TESEV with the support of the Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands’ MATRA Fund, seeks to evaluate the disaster management efforts undertaken in Mersin. To this end, the report first examines the official disaster management approach and then reviews the existing plans and practices related to disaster management in Mersin while aiming to address disaster management not only as technical expertise but also as a democratic and pluralistic governance practice.
Topic:
Climate Change, Natural Disasters, Governance, Urban, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Mersin

88. The Power of Transformative Skills: A Guide to Empowering the Next Generation

Author:
H. Ceren Zeytinoğlu
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
Unlike traditional “soft skills,” transformative skills encompass not only effective communication and social behavior but also cognitive flexibility, emotional resilience, mental well-being, and personal growth. They are the foundation of a strong internal infrastructure that helps individuals adapt and lead in a rapidly changing world.
Topic:
Resilience, Labor Market, Skills, and Gender Equality
Political Geography:
Turkey and Global Focus

89. Understanding the Complexities of the Eastern Mediterranean Hydrocarbon Puzzle by Regional Security Complex Theory

Author:
Jude Alabi and Can Kakişim
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
The discovered hydrocarbon reserves throughout the Eastern Mediterranean hold enormous economic promise but have also increased regional geopolitical tensions. However, the discovery of reserves has failed to advance regional cooperation in the region due to pre-existing territorial conflicts and closed security alliances. Regional Security Complex Theory (RSCT) helps this study understand how security connections in the area determine energy politics by explaining the failure of economic benefits to transcend historical conflicts. This research shows that the securitization process of hydrocarbon resources created new conflicts that generated maritime military disputes and formed special alliances. The Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum demonstrates how security issues supplant economic advantages since it excludes Türkiye from membership, thereby impeding the creation of an all-encompassing regional energy framework. The research adds value to existing knowledge about energy governance by underscoring the influence of state and non-state forces in the region’s energy sector. According to the analysis, energy diplomacy cannot solve geopolitical conflicts because security concerns need broader political structures for resolution. The Eastern Mediterranean hydrocarbon resources will continue to be a source of regional dispute if no comprehensive solutions are implemented.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Geopolitics, Hydrocarbons, Securitization, Energy, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Turkey and Eastern Mediterranean

90. Spatial Context of Ontological Security in Foreign Policy Analysis: The Case of Türkiye’s Blue Homeland Policy

Author:
Yumuşak Güç
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
The concept of ontological security in foreign policy analysis (FPA) and International Relations highlights that states seek not only physical but also existential security. States, like individuals, aim to perceive themselves as meaningful entities and create stable identities through consistent routines and biographical narratives. These narratives are formed from collective memories and help the state maintain historical continuity and identity. However, FPA studies often overlook the importance of space, a crucial factor emphasized in psychological studies on individual ontological security. Space contributes to feelings of consistency, control, status, autonomy, and identity. This study explores the significance of space for a state’s ontological security in foreign policy, using Türkiye’s “Blue Homeland” (Mavi Vatan) policy as a case study. Türkiye’s ambitious maritime policy, involving activities like natural gas exploration and military exercises, reflects its quest for physical and ontological security. The Blue Homeland policy not only addresses physical security but also Türkiye’s need for ontological security through its discourses, symbols, and narratives. This study aims to introduce the spatial dimension into FPA’s ontological security approach and analyze Türkiye’s Blue Homeland policy through this new lens.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Autonomy, and Blue Homeland Policy
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

91. Syrian Refugees in Turkey: Between Reception and Integration

Author:
Ramiz Abbaszada
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
In the last decade, the influx of over 3.5 million Syrian refugees has profoundly reshaped the dynamics of global migration governance (European Commission 2024). One of the most comprehensive studies on this topic is Syrian Refugees in Turkey: Between Reception and Integration by Zeynep Şahin-Mencütek, N. Ela Gökalp-Aras, Ayhan Kaya, and Susan Beth Rottmann. This work presents a critical analysis of Turkey’s multifaceted response to Syrian mass migration from 2011 to 2020, introducing the concept of “strategic temporality” to frame its analysis. Beginning with the theoretical framework of strategic temporality, this six-chapter work explores Turkey’s legislative and political context, analyses reception practices, i.e. an in-depth analysis of protection mechanisms and a study of integration processes, and ends with considerations of the broader implications of these responses.
Topic:
Refugees, Book Review, Syrian War, and Integration
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

92. The Fading of Old Irritants: U.S.–Türkiye Relations in a Post–Assad Landscape

Author:
Adam Weinstein and Steven Simon
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:
The U.S.–Türkiye relationship today is a fraught partnership marked by discord and strategic misalignment — particularly within the context of the Syrian Civil War but long before it as well. With the fading of old irritants in a post–Assad Syrian political landscape, a more stable and cooperative U.S.–Türkiye relationship is possible — an opportunity the Trump administration should seize. The United States and Türkiye, though NATO allies, have historically lacked the shared values that make the transactionalism inherent in alliance frameworks easier to manage. As such, tensions have arisen when the strategic interests of each country or domestic politics have diverged. The Syrian Civil War, particularly since the emergence of the ISIS caliphate in 2014, illustrated this division starkly. While initially supportive of the mission to defeat ISIS in Syria, Türkiye became disillusioned with the military campaign once the United States partnered with the Kurdish–led People’s Protection Units, or YPG. To Türkiye, the YPG is an extension of the Kurdistan Workers Party, or PKK, a militant Kurdish group that the country has fought since the early 1980s and views as an existential challenge. This misalignment of primary objectives in Syria created a fraught dynamic between the U.S. and Türkiye. In December 2024, Bashar al–Assad’s regime fell following a successful military campaign by Hay`at Tahrir al–Sham, or HTS, a Sunni Islamist group with close ties to Türkiye. While HTS’s rule moving forward is precarious, the United States and Türkiye share a common interest in preventing renewed civil strife in Syria. A resumed war could create another wave of asylum migration to Türkiye and beyond, stimulate deeper Israeli involvement, renew Iranian attempts to influence developments, and run counter to a broadly shared international interest in a unitary Syrian state. President Trump has expressed a desire to withdraw American troops from Syria and a willingness to permit greater Turkish influence in northern Syria. To advance a more cooperative U.S.–Türkiye relationship, this brief recommends the following: The Trump administration should establish a formal working group with Türkiye on Syria, bringing together intelligence, military, diplomatic, and economic channels. Türkiye and Kurdish groups should engage in backchannel diplomacy to promote Kurdish integration into a functioning Syrian state and protect the Kurds against human rights abuses. The United States and Türkiye should rebuild strategic trust through targeted defense cooperation, resuming U.S. arms sales to Türkiye contingent on its cooperation in Syria and Iraq, and expanding U.S.–Türkiye joint training and NATO exercises. Türkiye and Israel should engage in stabilization dialogue to mitigate tensions over their respective zones of influence in Syria and to coordinate on eastern Mediterranean energy development.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Islamic State, Syrian War, Kurds, and Political Transition
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Syria, North America, and United States of America

93. Neoclassical Geo-strategic Analysis of Türkiye’s Military Operations in Syria and Iraq Till Assad’s Fall

Author:
Kanan Ahmadzada and Ramazan Safa
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Novus Orbis: Journal of Politics & International Relations
Institution:
Department of International Relations, Karadeniz Technical University
Abstract:
This article examines and evaluates the reasons, strategic logic, outcomes, and effectiveness of Türkiye's military operations in northern Syria and Iraq until Assad's fall in 2024 as part of its campaign against Kurdish militant factions, particularly the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). Adopting a neoclassical geostrategic framework, paper treats environmental realities and elite perceptions of the threats and opportunities associated with them as central factors explaining elites' strategic decisions. In this way, it explores the evolution of Türkiye’s military confrontation with PKK and associated groups along with Justice and Development Party (JDP) elites' perceptions of threats and opportunities and ideological leanings of neo-Ottomanism and Turkish-Islamic nationalism. Relying on extensive examination of primary and secondary data, the article argues that Türkiye’s operations in Syria and Iraq are mainly a calculated response to an insecure border reality marked by the expansion of PKK, the humanitarian crisis in Syria, and regional instability amid the Arab Spring. Thus, it is argued that these operations are the results of a preventive strategic logic aimed at countering separatism and terrorism threats, under the imperative of "better now than later" in both Syria and Iraq.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Syrian War, Bashar al-Assad, PKK, Neo-Ottomanism, Preventive Measures, Military Operations, and Neoclassical Geostrategy
Political Geography:
Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

94. A Case of Multi-Dimensional Chess: The Power Game in Syria and the Role of Israel

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Israel’s strategy in Syria requires a delicate balance: bolstering security, supporting allies, countering Turkish expansion, and exploiting shifting dynamics to weaken Hezbollah
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Syrian War, Hezbollah, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Syria

95. Hellenic airspace violations: An updating note

Author:
Vasileios Symeonidis
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
This is a note to update an earlier published paper, which focused on forecasting Hellenic flight information region violations by Turkish aircraft. The update became necessary following certain geopolitical and economic developments in the Mediterranean, mainly the Athens Agreement. The least-squares best fit model for the 2009–2019 data set for Hellenic airspace violations was used, accompanied by additional ordinary least squares estimates and forecasts. We showed that the pattern of pressure on the Hellenic sovereignty described in the above-mentioned paper is now different in terms of the methods exercised; it is also cheaper. However, it is equally, if not more, effective. We interpret this shift by arguing that Turkey is a Political Realism follower, focusing on the importance of power, security, and national interest in shaping its actions, regardless of the ideological or ethical implications of such actions. This explains its preference for exerting pressure in the form of sea border violations and massive forced emigration from Turkey to the European Union via Greece. This note concludes that the pattern of pressure on the Hellenic sovereignty in the Aegean involving Hellenic airspace violations by Turkish aircraft has been modified. Turkey now prefers cheaper but equally effective methods, such as sea border violations and, in most cases, hybrid warfare tactics, like massive forced emigration.
Topic:
Security, Migration, Borders, Emigration, and Airspace
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Greece

96. Strategic Ambiguity: Erdoğan’s Turkey in a Multipolar World

Author:
Jeffrey Mankoff and Max Bergmann
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Finland and Sweden made the historic decision to seek membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). While Washington greeted this decision as an opportunity to strengthen the alliance and reinforce Russia’s strategic miscalculation in starting the war, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan saw Finland’s and Sweden’s membership aspirations as an opportunity to seek concessions over arms sales, Turkey’s pursuit of membership in the European Union, and Stockholm’s perceived sympathy for Kurdish militants. After signing off on Finland’s membership in March 2023, Turkey only approved Swedish membership in January 2024 after Sweden approved new counterterrorism legislation—and after the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden agreed to sell Turkey modernized F-16 fighter jets. The saga over Finland and Sweden joining NATO demonstrates how Turkey straddles multiple worlds. It is at once part of the West—a NATO member and an EU candidate country—and part of the Middle East, an integral player across the region stretching from Libya to Afghanistan. It is also a member of the Global South that practices familiar hedging strategies toward the West, engages constructively with Russia and China, and does not hesitate to pursue foreign policy goals counter to the interests of its most important treaty ally, the United States.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Strategic Competition, Multipolarity, and Strategic Ambiguity
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

97. E-government tools, authoritarian propaganda, and regime support: experimental evidence from Turkey

Author:
Semuhi Sinanoglu and Armin von Schiller
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
How do e-government tools that enable direct online communication with the executive affect citizens' support for autocracy? On the one hand, such centralized digital government tools may sway public opinion in favor of strongman rule at the expense of autocratic institutions; on the other hand, such participation and responsiveness may unintentionally unveil a wide range of issues in the country, undermining trust in the regime. We examine an electronic platform in Turkey, CIMER, that allows citizens to submit petitions and complaints, send messages to the president, and propose policies and programs. We conducted a well-powered online survey experiment with a nationally representative sample (N≈4,600) that estimates the effects of different types of regime propaganda around this e-portal on attitudinal and quasi-behavioral outcomes. The results suggest that propaganda through CIMER improves diffuse support for the regime and generates behavioral compliance, even among opposition voters. However, these positive effects accrue to regime institutions rather than to Erdoğan personally as the executive's personalistic leader. On certain dimensions, the propaganda backfires among the regime's core support groups, eroding their perceptions of Erdoğan's popularity as a leader. These results have major implications for the expected downstream effects of these types of digital tools on regime stability and legitimacy, and they add to the growing warnings about holding overly optimistic views concerning the effects of digitalization on democracy.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Propaganda, Digitalization, and E-Government
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

98. U.S. Democratic Backsliding in Comparative Perspective

Author:
McKenzie Carrier and Thomas Carothers
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The global democratic recession of the past twenty years has been marked by numerous cases of elected leaders incrementally dismantling democracy through a steady centralization of power and undercutting of checks and balances—what political scientists label as executive aggrandizement. Under the second Donald Trump presidency, the United States is showing clear signs of following such a path, leading many commenters to draw arresting but often relatively glancing comparisons with other prominent recent cases of democratic erosion, like Hungary, India, Poland, and Türkiye. This paper examines U.S. political developments since the return of Trump to power in an in-depth, comparative light, seeking to illuminate the similarities and differences between the unfolding U.S. context and the experience of other troubled democracies. The paper establishes that the Trump administration’s overall political project conforms to the general model of executive aggrandizement, and is best understood as taking place at three interrelated levels: Establishing the president as supreme within the executive branch: Trump’s team seeks an extreme form of presidential concentration of power within the executive branch. It has weakened accountability institutions and regulations, tightened presidential control over independent agencies and the executive bureaucracy, decreased the political independence of the civil service, and purged perceived opponents from the branch. Making the executive branch dominant over other parts of government: The administration is forcefully seeking dominance over the judiciary, Congress, and states. It has defied court orders, criticized judicial rulings, and constrained individual judges. It has circumvented congressional policies and undermined its powers. And it has attacked and constrained state governments that do not align with administration policies. Weakening societal constraints on executive power: Trump has stymied civil society opposition by attacking independent media, punishing lawyers and law firms perceived to be oppositional, and constraining civic and educational organizations. His team has undermined vertical checks on the executive by weakening voting rights and the independence of election administration. Broadly, Trump is pursuing widespread retribution against perceived opponents and critics. The paper then compares the path of U.S. politics under Trump to seven other recent or ongoing cases of democratic backsliding—Brazil, Ecuador, El Salvador, Hungary, India, Poland, and Türkiye—highlighting distinctive features along three comparative dimensions: Focus: The Trump team’s agenda has several priorities that set it apart from other backsliding cases. These include its unique emphasis on intra-executive dominance, delegitimization rather than institutionalized attacks on horizontal checks, and coercive use of the robust federal funding ecosystem to pressure U.S. civil society. Rapidity: The administration has carried out its political program with striking speed. Compared to other backsliding cases, it has sought to centralize power with greater momentum and rapidity. And while other leaders often eroded democratic checks piece by piece, Trump’s team is working to weaken such checks across multiple levels all at once. Severity: The degree of democratic erosion in the United States is not yet as severe as that of most of its backsliding peers. The country has not yet seen the deep-rooted institutional changes that have characterized many of the comparative cases. And repressive measures like coercive force or criminalization have been limited by U.S. democratic norms and institutions. While some comfort can be taken from the fact that the relatively deeply rooted U.S. democratic norms and institutions compared to those in the other cases have resulted in a less institutionalized process of backsliding thus far, the distinctive speed and aggressiveness of Trump’s aggrandizement agenda is cause for serious concern. Numerous avenues and sources of resistance to democratic erosion continue to exist, but U.S. democracy is being put to the test as never before in the country’s modern history.
Topic:
Government, Domestic Politics, Donald Trump, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:
Turkey, India, Poland, Brazil, Hungary, North America, Ecuador, El Salvador, and United States of America

99. "A Capital City Will Always Be a Capital City”: Konya’s Rise Under the AKP’s Rule

Author:
Elisa Domingues dos Santos, Jules Liaud, and Dorothee Schmid
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Case Study
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
While the May 2023 parliamentary and presidential elections looked as a difficult test for the flagging Islamo-conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP), they eventually held on to power, demonstrating their remarkable foothold in the Turkish context. The party notably recorded one of its highest scores in Konya, confirming the massive and uninterrupted support of this two-million inhabitants central Anatolian city for Turkish political Islam. The phenomenon can be explained by the benefits that Konya has derived from its relationship with the Islamic movement for several decades. Long marginalized in a provincial space, little connected to Western Turkey’s centers of power, Konya, renowned for its history and religious heritage, became an “Anatolian tiger” under the AKP rule. The province’s economic development started from an agricultural base (Turkey’s cereal granary) enabling the emergence of a local agro-industry. It was driven by dynamic small and medium-sized enterprises, combining conservative values with entrepreneurial efficiency. Forging close ties with the AKP, Konya has benefited from territorial development policies that facilitated its rapid opening to the world. Thanks to its Anatolian identity, central geography, diversity of human flows and capacity to project its economic dynamism into increasingly distant markets (like Africa), Konya has become a showcase for the paradoxical modernity of the new Turkey.
Topic:
Elections, Entrepreneurship, Domestic Politics, and AKP
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Konya

100. Understanding the Energy Drivers of Turkey’s Foreign Policy

Author:
Francesco Siccardi
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Turkey has an energy dependence problem. For the past two decades, Ankara’s energy needs have been on the rise, and they are projected to continue on an upward trajectory until at least 2035. Yet, the country is not endowed with the proven natural resources to support its energy needs, and so it imports almost all of the energy it consumes. This reliance on energy imports creates economic and security constraints for Ankara. On the economic front, strategic decisions to diversify Turkey’s energy market impact the direction and pace of the country’s economic development. On the security front, dependence on foreign energy exposes Turkey to external shocks and creates vulnerabilities that affect the country’s international posture. To Turkish policymakers, this is hardly breaking news. For many decades, successive governments have been considering ways to diversify the country’s energy portfolio with the objective of ensuring access to affordable, reliable energy supplies. Domestically, this goal has translated into continued investments in locally produced power, such as the development of natural gas fields under the Black Sea and the opening of nuclear and coal-fired power plants across the country. Externally, the aim of diversification has led Ankara to forge a wide range of international partnerships and preserve relations with both Western purchasers of Turkish exports and key energy providers, including Russia and countries in Turkey’s immediate neighborhood. What is more, Ankara pursues its energy diplomacy against the backdrop of a broader geopolitical strategy of bolstering Turkey’s status as a regional power based on its geographic position and connections. At the heart of this strategy is a grand plan to establish Turkey as a major natural gas hub that will put the country at the center of regional energy trade. This policy has ramifications for Ankara’s relations with its close and more distant neighbors. Turkey is surrounded by energy-rich countries, and one of its primary objectives when reaching out to them is to secure the conditions for a steady inflow of energy resources—typically, natural gas and oil. This objective can lead to the development of durable economic partnerships, such as with Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Iran; but it can also spark conflicts of different degrees of intensity, such as with Turkey’s Eastern Mediterranean neighbors and Iraq. Beyond its immediate neighborhood, Ankara’s gas diplomacy is consequential for relations with Russia—with which Turkey has been strengthening its energy relations beyond hydrocarbons—and with Europe. On the demand side of Ankara’s natural gas market equation, European countries are thirsty for non-Russian hydrocarbons in the short and medium term and for green energy in the longer term. Turkey has the potential to provide both, as long as it comes up with strong policies that support these energy transitions. To do so, the Turkish government will need to shift its approaches not only to energy but also to geopolitics. Ankara will have to present itself as a reliable energy partner for Europe and ramp up its investment in clean energy technologies. Delinking Turkey’s economic development from its dependence on hydrocarbons will benefit Ankara financially while bringing it closer to its European allies. Building a long-lasting energy partnership with Europe remains one of Turkey’s greatest challenges.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Climate Change, and Economy
Political Geography:
Russia, Iraq, Europe, Iran, Turkey, Caucasus, Middle East, Libya, North Africa, and Egypt