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42. A Coalition of the Willing for Ukraine: Europe tries to return to the negotiations table
- Author:
- Niklas Ebert and Claudia Major
- Publication Date:
- 05-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
- Abstract:
- The new buzzword in European defense is the “coalition of the willing”. Proposed by France and the United Kingdom in February 2025, the initiative is meant to support Ukraine’s sovereignty by upholding a ceasefire in the country and by deterring Russia once the fighting has stopped. So far, however, there is neither a ceasefire nor has Russia signaled acceptance for Western troops in Ukraine. The Europeans have started military planning although pledges remain limited. But there is much discussion about Europe’s taking responsibility for Ukraine, especially since the second Donald Trump administration appears to be redefining its commitment to European security and supporting an end to the war largely on Russia's terms. The discrepancy between rhetoric and action puts Ukraine’s and Europe’s security, and the latter’s credibility, at risk. To better understand the gap, GMF experts assessed the different national perspectives across North America and Europe (including Ukraine) on the value and probability of a coalition of the willing for Ukraine and potential national contributions to it. Their analyses provide an overview of the variety of European positions and explore the likeliness of the coalition’s success. Each expert was given three sets of questions to guide their analysis: Does the country’s government support the idea of a coalition of the willing in Ukraine? Is there a national consensus? What tasks should this coalition have? Is the country willing to participate or contribute in another way? Why? The experts analyze the thinking in their chosen countries and offer no personal opinions. The analyses are based on public statements and confidential interviews.
- Topic:
- Security, European Union, Negotiation, Transatlantic Relations, Russia-Ukraine War, and Defense Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, and Baltic States
43. Building on Momentum in U.S.-Turkey Relations
- Author:
- Soner Cagaptay
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The two leaders can use their personal rapport to solve bilateral and regional problems, but they will also face tough challenges in matters such as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and dealings with China. In the second in a series of TRANSITION 2025 memos, Soner Cagaptay explores areas for U.S. partnership with Turkey in the Middle East and beyond. After a decade of malaise, relations between the two countries have lately recovered thanks to Turkish support for Sweden’s accession to NATO, granted in return for permission to buy U.S. F-16 fighter jets. The personal magnetism between President Trump and his counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, could smooth the way for further cooperation in military and economic areas, and also potentially help the new U.S. administration in Ukraine and Syria. But complex challenges remain, relating not only to the Syrian conflict—where Ankara and Washington backed different actors—but also to dealings with China and affinities in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. MIDDLE EAST POLICY TRANSITION 2025 by Washington Institute experts address challenges and opportunities for the Trump-Vance administration during a period of extraordinary change in the Middle East. A primary challenge will be countering Iran’s march toward the bomb. Also critical will be determining a sustainable U.S. force posture in the region and updating America’s counterterrorism mission. Opportunities, meanwhile, are suddenly ample after blows to the “axis of resistance” and include the imperative to forge a better relationship with Turkey, which is set to be an influential player in post-Assad Syria.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, and Regional Security
- Political Geography:
- China, Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
44. Inside the Latest PKK Talks (Part 2): Implications for Turkish and U.S. Policy
- Author:
- Soner Cagaptay
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- If Ankara seals the deal and preempts potential spoilers, the results could prove historic for Turkish politics, Erdogan’s legacy, joint counterterrorism efforts, and wider U.S. regional interests. nkara’s new dialogue with the PKK was born from nearly a decade of meticulous counterterrorism work, carried out by the country’s security forces and National Intelligence Organization and based on a political plan formulated by Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, who served as intelligence chief until 2023. The steps involved in this strategy have since become clear: (1) double down on pressuring and weakening the PKK via drone strikes and other effective tools, (2) bring the group back to the negotiating table from a position of weakness, and (3) negotiate the group’s breakup via Kurdish political intermediaries, as described in Part 1 of this PolicyWatch. The first phase of the plan achieved major successes against PKK militants in Turkey, Iraq, and Syria, while phases two and three are seemingly being checked off as well amid reports that Abdullah Ocalan may soon ask his group to lay down their arms. To close the deal, end the PKK threat once and for all, and score a domestic political prize in the process, Fidan, Erdogan, and Turkey’s national security elites have been actively engaging Kurdish actors at home and abroad, whether to increase pressure on the group or offer incentives for disbanding.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Domestic Politics, Negotiation, Kurds, PKK, Dialogue, and Peacemaking
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and United States of America
45. Inside the Latest PKK Talks (Part 1): Kurdish Actors and Interests
- Author:
- Soner Cagaptay
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Although past peace efforts have fallen apart due to diplomatic stumbles and Kurdish opposition, the situation on the ground in Iraq, Syria, and Turkey has changed dramatically enough to warrant optimism about Ankara’s current talks. Turkey is reportedly on the cusp of a historic announcement by Abdullah Ocalan, jailed leader of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), with sources indicating he may soon ask the movement’s members to disband and end their longstanding fight against the government. Resolving the state’s five-decade conflict with a designated terrorist group would have momentous repercussions on a wide range of issues, from Turkish politics at home to bilateral ties abroad. For one, it could remove the PKK thorn from U.S.-Turkish relations and pave the way for their anticipated reset under the second Trump administration. It would also affect developments next door in Syria, where Washington has partnered with the PKK’s Syrian branch, the People’s Defense Units (YPG), since 2014 to fight the Islamic State—rousing Turkey’s ire in the process. Yet what are the deal’s actual chances for success, and what specific implications might it hold for the many relevant actors in the region and beyond? Part 1 of this PolicyWatch analyzes the Kurdish angles in Turkey, Syria, and Iraq; Part 2 assesses broader U.S. and Turkish policy considerations.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Kurds, PKK, and Dialogue
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria
46. Social Media Addiction: Yeşilay's Awareness Campaigns Against Social Media Addiction
- Author:
- Meryem Altıntaş
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Academic Inquiries
- Institution:
- Sakarya University (SAU)
- Abstract:
- As with other addictions, social media addiction causes the individual to be exposed to many mental and physical problems. The Yeşilayhas an important place in the fight against addiction, especially in creating individual and social awareness. In this study, it is examined what kind of studies the Yeşilay conducts on social media addiction, whether it conveys methods of combating social media addiction, and whether it informs about individual responsibilities regarding social media addiction. Within the scope of the study, a total of 5 brochures published on the official website of the Yeşilay under the name of technology addiction were analyzed. The brochures were analyzed in terms of target audience, subject, language and visuals. It was observed that the brochures provided information about technology addiction, the effects of technology addiction and methods of protection from addiction. The Yeşilay has brochures on technology addiction. However, the Yeşilay should also prepare brochures that deal entirely with social media addiction. In addition, the brochures should frequently inform individuals to receive professional psychological support within the scope of combating addiction.
- Topic:
- Social Media, Journalism, and Addiction
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Global Focus
47. Türkiye’de Din ve Milliyetçilik Söylemlerinde Sınırların İnşası: Lévi-Strauss’un Yapısalcı Perspektifinden Bir Analiz
- Author:
- Mesut Özcan
- Publication Date:
- 12-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Bilgi
- Institution:
- Sakarya University (SAU)
- Abstract:
- This study aims to understand borders in the con-text of religion and nationalism in Turkey. For this purpose, the main problematic of this study is what kind of meanings are attributed to the concept of borders in religious and nationalist discourses in Turkish political culture and state tradition. Within the framework of this problematic, the study tries to understand the construction of borders in Turkey through concepts such as structure, language, meaning and symbol, which constitute Lévi-Strauss's structuralist perspective. In this study, discourse analysis technique was used within the framework of qualitative research meth-od. In this study, boundaries were analyzed from a discursive perspective as structural wholes, as well as structures through which meaning is produced and symbolized through language. For such an analysis, Turkey's historical and sociological struc-ture on religion and nationalism provides important data. In this context, borders, which are one of the main components of religion and nationalism in Turkey, are not just a line but also structures that symbolise the basic elements of Turkish political culture such as homeland, nation, state, land, honour, faith, mar-tyrdom and holiness. The structure, language, meaning and symbols contained in religious and nationalist discourse in Turkey have transformed borders into multi-layered ones. In the context of Lévi-Strauss's conceptualization of binary opposi-tions, borders in Turkey have created a language and discourse that are dominated by reli-gious and nationalist tones through binary opposi-tions such as us-them/other, friend-enemy, here-there, inside-outside, local-foreign and national-international.
- Topic:
- Nationalism, Religion, Borders, and Structuralism
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
48. Türkiye’s Disinflation Challenge: A Bumpy Road Toward Stability
- Author:
- Murat Yülek
- Publication Date:
- 06-2025
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Australian Institute of International Affairs (AIIA)
- Abstract:
- Since the 2023 presidential elections, Ankara’s fight against inflation is showing mixed results amid policy shifts, capital volatility, and business frustrations. The official objective of single digit inflation is yet to be achieved.
- Topic:
- Economy, Economic Policy, and Inflation
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
49. Unsettled Ground, Unsettled Lives: The Ontological (In)securities of Syrian Refugees in the Shadow of Turkey’s 2023 Earthquake
- Author:
- Berfin Çakın and Renad AlMajdalawi
- Publication Date:
- 06-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal on Migration and Human Security
- Institution:
- Center for Migration Studies of New York
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the ontological insecurities faced by Syrian refugees in Turkey following the 2023 earthquakes. Ontological security refers to the security of being, encompassing a sense of confidence in the apparent stability of the world. This concept is intimately linked to managing existential uncertainties and maintaining routines to ensure a sense of security. Previous literature indicates that uncertain situations, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and natural disasters, including earthquakes and floods, exacerbate ontological insecurities. Additionally, these challenging situations often intensify anti-refugee attitudes. Historically, the impact of earthquakes on individuals has been considered predominantly within the realm of physical security, a perspective critiqued by critical security scholars. In alignment with this critique, our study adopts an ontological security perspective to analyze the situations of Syrian refugees in Turkey post-earthquake, addressing a gap in the literature which has previously focused on the physical security aspects of Syrian refugees. While numerous studies documented the relationship between security and migration, fewer explored the nexus between ontological (in)security and migration in the context of natural hazards. This study addresses this gap by investigating how the recent earthquake heightened existing insecurities among Syrian refugees. Drawing on ontological security studies, narrative analysis, and data from in-depth, semi-structured interviews, the study finds that the vulnerabilities of Syrian refugees were intensified by the earthquake. Their perceptions of home, society, and future shifted significantly, decreasing their ontological security and exacerbating existing inequalities. Our findings suggest that the February 2023 earthquake posed threats to refugees beyond physical inadequacies, exacerbating the ontological insecurities of Syrian refugees in Turkey. This compounded their displacement-related existential anxieties and undermined their sense of stability and belonging by altering their perceptions of home, trust in public authorities, and their future. The earthquake significantly disrupted Syrian refugees’ understanding of “home” by compounding their sense of loss and insecurity, thereby challenging their ability to establish a stable, predictable environment essential for ontological security in Turkey. Furthermore, the earthquake altered Syrian refugees’ trust in public authorities. The government’s handling of the post-earthquake process significantly impacted refugees’ access to essential resources, with discriminatory practices and mobility restrictions amplifying their vulnerability and precariousness. The state’s crisis management capabilities and emphasis on border security, aimed at ensuring control, inadvertently increased refugees’ precariousness regarding their identity and future, leading to a loss of trust in public authorities. In addition to these challenges, the earthquake also changed Syrian refugees’ perception of their future in Turkey, causing them to question their safety and sense of belonging in the host society. Existing challenges faced by refugees were exacerbated by the earthquake and compounded by societal exclusion, further shattering their sense of stability and predictability. Post-earthquake, language barriers and stereotypes intensified, leading to increased discrimination and a reliance on informal survival networks, further diminishing their trust in the future. This heightened ontological insecurity, compounded by economic and social barriers, deepened divisions and made the refugees feel perpetually out of place, undermining their trust in Turkish institutions and society. Our suggestions and policy recommendations underscore the need for comprehensive policies that address both the physical and psychological dimensions of refugee well-being with reference to concrete policy designs in a post-disaster process.
- Topic:
- Migration, Natural Disasters, Refugees, Domestic Politics, Syrian War, and Earthquake
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Syria
50. Can Turkey and Israel Find Common Ground in Syria?
- Author:
- Ken Pollack, Gonul Tol, and Natan Sachs
- Publication Date:
- 10-2025
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- With the collapse of the Assad regime last December and Interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s assumption of power in January, Syria has entered a precarious era, with both dangers and opportunities. Its trajectory will depend in part on neighboring Turkey’s and Israel’s interventions and competition for influence in Syrian affairs. Rising tensions between them raise the stakes of their respective objectives in Syria and whether the two sides may be reconciled in a way that is beneficial to Syria’s recovery post-Assad. Our panel of experts will help us understand how Syria has become an arena for Turkish-Israeli rivalry, what role the United States could play in tamping down the hostilities between its two allies, and how this situation affects the stability and geostrategic trajectory of the broader region.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Syrian War, Rivalry, Post-Conflict, Regional Politics, and Foreign Influence
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Syria
51. The Regional and Domestic Elements of Erdoğan's Grand Strategy
- Author:
- Alistair Taylor, Matthew Czekaj, and Gonul Tol
- Publication Date:
- 07-2025
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- In this episode of Middle East Focus, hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj are joined by MEI Senior Fellow Gönül Tol to discuss how shifting regional dynamics — from the Israel-Iran war to renewed violence in southern Syria — are reshaping Turkey’s foreign policy and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's domestic agenda. They unpack Ankara’s ties with the US under the Trump administration, its strained relations with Israel, the implications of Turkey’s peace process with the PKK, and Erdoğan’s bid to maintain his hold on power. The conversation also explores how Turkey is positioning itself as Western engagement grows more uncertain and what this means for the future of democracy in the country.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Armed Conflict, PKK, Regional Politics, and Political Transition
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Syria, and United States of America
52. An Analysis of Türkiye’s Role in the Black Sea Region Building Process
- Author:
- Nergiz Özkural Köroğlu and Fatih Özgüven
- Publication Date:
- 07-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
- Institution:
- Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
- Abstract:
- In a multipolar world, new security threats have emerged, and region-based approaches have been developed to address these new security challenges. In the literature on regionalisation, it is assumed that region-building processes take place under certain conditions and in certain stages. Considering the existing processes in the literature, this study aligns the formation of the Black Sea Region with the understanding of the stages of region-building and proposes new stages of region-building, influenced by the first and second waves of regionalisation processes. In order to analyse Türkiye’s role in the region, the statements made by Turkish political elites (Prime Minister, Foreign Minister, President, and Presidential Spokesperson) during their visits to the Black Sea countries (Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine, Russia, and Georgia) between 2014 and 2023 were subjected to content analysis. This period was chosen to highlight the post-2014 period, which witnessed conflicts that negatively affected the region-building process. Security concerns are important in region-building processes and often lead to the formation of security communities.
- Topic:
- Multipolarity, Regional Security, and International Society
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Black Sea
53. Twisting in the Wind: The Politics of Tepid Transitions to Renewable Energy
- Author:
- Deniz Ünal
- Publication Date:
- 12-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Uluslararasi Iliskiler
- Institution:
- International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
- Abstract:
- The book analyses the transition to renewable energy in Türkiye, which, according to the Bayulgen, is the country in the world that needs it the most to reduce its current account deficit, energy insecurity, and increasing environmental degradation. Chapter one is an introductory chapter and draws the general framework for the study. The main puzzle of the book is why renewable energy reforms stagnate over time despite favourable economic and technical conditions and why it is hard to increase renewable energy against fossil fuels. These questions are important to detect if the factors necessary to initiate pro-renewable policies are different from those that are necessary to sustain them. The Turkish case shows how governments can implement renewable energy reforms under external pressures to meet increasing energy demand without an ideological commitment to the environment. Therefore, clean energy reforms are not always motivated by societal demands. Once the reforms are enacted by the hand of a narrow governing circle more easily, more democracy is needed to sustain them to break the incumbent position of fossil fuel companies. Thus, the author claims that the drivers of initial reforms are crises, opportunistic elites, and concentration of power; while the drivers of sustainable reform are representative institutions and professional bureaucracy.
- Topic:
- Book Review, Renewable Energy, Green Transition, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
54. Examining the Cyprus Issue through the Lens of the EU’s Periodic Progress Reports on Türkiye
- Author:
- Yusuf Avar
- Publication Date:
- 07-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Novus Orbis: Journal of Politics & International Relations
- Institution:
- Department of International Relations, Karadeniz Technical University
- Abstract:
- This study tries to comprehend and evaluate the significance of the Cyprus problem in Türkiye’s relations with the EU. In this sense, it aims to ascertain any potential shifts in the EU’s stance towards Cyprus and to elucidate the specific issues that the EU prioritized across several periods. Therefore, the EU’s 1998-2024 (except one not prepared in 2017) progress reports have undergone content analysis. It has been observed that the Cyprus issue has been discussed in every report and this situation proves how much the EU has given its importance to the issue. Within this framework, the concept of bottom-up Europeanization has been employed as a conceptual framework to explain the EU’s stance on the Cyprus issue. It is apparent that the Greek Cyprus, with Greece’s assistance, effectively transferred the Cyprus issue to the EU level, and no EU reports criticize Greece or the Greek Cyprus for their problem-solving efforts. Rather, most reports state that Türkiye and the Turkish Cypriots are the primary causes of the issue.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Territorial Disputes, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Greece, and Cyprus
55. Turkish Foreign Policy in 2020s: Designed for a "Gentle Giant"?
- Author:
- Emre Kalay
- Publication Date:
- 07-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Novus Orbis: Journal of Politics & International Relations
- Institution:
- Department of International Relations, Karadeniz Technical University
- Abstract:
- Türkiye does not refrain from utilizing its hard power components to influence the conjecture in its region in the 2020s. The utilizing of hard power instruments has different levels: producing and providing military equipment to one side of the conflict as in the Ukrainian case; in addition to producing and providing military equipment, providing technical assistance as in the Nagorno-Karabakh issue and Libya; using military power to confront, standoff and deter other parties as in Eastern Mediterranean question and, conducting extraterritorial military operations as in Syria case. What makes Türkiye a gentle giant is what comes with/after the utilization of hard power. If Türkiye’s interests are considered to be satisfied with/after the usage of hard power, Turkish foreign policy starts to send messages towards peace and prosperity in the region. By doing so, it tries to ensure the countries in question that Türkiye has no interest in further violent conflict or has the ambition to violate their sovereignty.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Strategic Interests, and Hard Power
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Ukraine, Middle East, Syria, and Nagorno-Karabakh
56. Anchoring NATO’s eastern flank: A neoclassical realist analysis of Romania’s Black Sea policy and its strategic interaction with Turkey
- Author:
- Zoltán Lechner
- Publication Date:
- 09-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Security and Defence Quarterly
- Institution:
- War Studies University
- Abstract:
- This study addresses two specific objectives. First, it aims to examine Romania’s foreign and security policy towards the Black Sea region and explain how and why Bucharest’s position in regional power dynamics has changed over time. Second, it aims to describe how Romania’s and Turkey’s strategic perspectives on the Black Sea relate to each other. The paper employs a qualitative, theory-informed case study methodology to examine Romania’s foreign and security policy in the Black Sea region. This is complemented by a comparative foreign policy analysis to explore the relationship between Romania’s and Turkey’s strategic perspectives. Accordingly, the research design integrates both single-case analysis and paired comparison to capture the dynamics of strategic regional interaction. Using the theory of neoclassical realism, the paper describes Romania’s strategic initiatives in the Black Sea region, explains how structural and domestic influences have shaped Bucharest’s foreign and security policy, and examines the complex relationship between the regional strategies of Romania and Turkey, by identifying the common and divergent interests of the two states. Romania’s Black Sea policy has been shaped by both external variables—structural power dynamics affecting the region—as well as internal variables—elite perceptions and the shifting dynamics of domestic politics. The relationship between the Black Sea strategies of Romania and Turkey can be described as a mixture of convergence, rooted in common security interests, and divergence, fuelled by distinct threat perceptions, domestic political dynamics, and regional ambitions.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, NATO, International Security, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Turkey, Romania, and Black Sea
57. A New Model for Measuring the Human Development Index: A Comparison of the Organisation of Turkic States and the EU
- Author:
- Abdullah Zübeyr Şekerci
- Publication Date:
- 07-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
- Institution:
- Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
- Abstract:
- The “Human Development Index Report”, which measures the welfare levels of societies, was first prepared by the United Nations Development Programme in 1990. There are certain criteria in the preparation of this index. In our study, we propose a method that integrates the multiple linear regression equation and the exponential smoothing method to obtain this index. The ordinary least squares method is used for the multiple linear regression equation. The purpose of using multiple linear regression here is not to ignore the relationship between the input criteria and the output when reaching the Human Development Index. In addition, by using exponential smoothing, which weights the input data, the model produced an estimation with greater predictive accuracy and statistical robustness. Future estimates are made with these two methods. In this context, the level of welfare of the five main members of the Organisation of Turkish States was examined in comparison with the five leading countries of the European Union. The criteria used are selected from United Nations Development Program reports and literature. These criteria are gross national product per capita, life expectancy at birth, unemployment and CO2 emissions per capita. The selected criteria data were processed with the multiple linear regression and exponential smoothing methods in MS Excel between 1990 and 2023. With this method, it is aimed to create an equation to estimate the 2030-2040 welfare level. According to the results, the Organisation of Turkish States Region WL converges to the European Union Region WL towards the 2030-40 period. It can be said that a new method is presented for calculating the welfare level of countries.
- Topic:
- European Union, Forecast, Human Development, and Organization of Turkic States
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Middle East
58. Crossroads of Peace: Advancing Regional Integration and Global Trade Through Post-Conflict Cooperation
- Author:
- Gevorg Papoyan and Albert Hayrapetyan
- Publication Date:
- 07-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
- Institution:
- Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
- Abstract:
- This article examines the potential economic benefits of the Crossroads of Peace (CoP) initiative proposed by the Government of Armenia. To assess regional trade dynamics, three indicators were applied: the Export Similarity Index (ESI), the Trade Complementarity Index (TCI), and the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA). The findings reveal that the ESI between Armenia and its regional partners, Türkiye and Azerbaijan, is 0.25, indicating minimal competition in export markets. In contrast, the TCI score of 0.5 from the region to Armenia suggests a relatively higher degree of complementarity, highlighting stronger opportunities for regional exports to Armenia than vice versa. Furthermore, Armenia’s projected trade volume with Türkiye in 2024 is estimated at USD 787 million, underscoring the initiative’s potential to foster significant economic exchange.
- Topic:
- Exports, Trade, Regional Economy, Freedom of Movement, and Post-Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Caucasus, Armenia, and Azerbaijan
59. How Democracies Defend Themselves Against Authoritarianism
- Author:
- Robert Benson
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for American Progress - CAP
- Abstract:
- Democracies facing authoritarian threats from within have found ways to push back by strengthening institutions, reinforcing democratic norms, and building popular resistance against encroaching autocracy. Understanding these strategies is vital to learning how to fight back.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, National Security, Authoritarianism, Reform, Elections, Democracy, Transparency, Voting Rights, Donald Trump, Domestic Policy, and Democratic Backsliding
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Turkey, India, Israel, North America, and United States of America
60. NATO and the Middle East: Turkey’s threat conceptions and attempts at stability in post-Assad Syria
- Author:
- Olli Ruohomäki, Toni Alaranta, and Iro Särkkä
- Publication Date:
- 05-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- With the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, and potential growing instability in Syria, NATO has struggled to formulate a coherent position on the Middle East and to build a cohesive network of partners in the region. As the stakes rise and Europe becomes more invested, both economically and militarily, in Euro-Atlantic defence, the Alliance should not neglect the chance to further develop its cooperative security agenda in the Middle East. In this context, Turkey – NATO’s only member state in the region – can act as a link between the Alliance and the Middle East. Turkey and other NATO members have long held different threat conceptions, resulting in differing priorities in counterterrorism. However, ongoing negotiations between Turkey and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), aimed at ending their long-standing conflict, could ease this divergence. While deeper cooperation between Turkey and European countries in the new European security arrangements depends on Turkey’s willingness to choose a side in the Europe-Russia confrontation, European NATO allies could still work with Turkey in areas where there is clear common ground with other Middle Eastern states, such as safeguarding an orderly political transition in Syria.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Terrorism, Governance, European Union, and Security Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria