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21. The Deinstitutionalization of U.S. and Turkish Foreign Policy: Why Societal Ties Are an Anchor in Bilateral Relations

Author:
Andrew O'Donohue
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
This paper challenges two prevailing narratives about U.S.-Turkey relations: first, that international and individual-level factors are responsible for volatility in the relationship and second, that bilateral relations are uniformly bleak. In contrast to these perspectives, this paper proposes a domestic and institutional explanation for the rising volatility of U.S.-Turkey relations and conceptualizes societal ties as an anchor in the bilateral relationship. This paper advances two inter-related arguments. First, I argue that a key driver of volatility in U.S.-Turkey relations since 2016 is the deinstitutionalization of U.S. and Turkish foreign policymaking. In the United States, the root cause of deinstitutionalization is intensifying polarization over foreign policy, fueled by the rise of populism. In Turkey, by contrast, foreign policy has deinstitutionalized through personalization: the steady concentration of decision-making power in the hands of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Second, against this backdrop of deinstitutionalization, I show that societal ties between the United States and Turkey provide a uniquely stable and enduring area of bilateral cooperation. I provide evidence for this argument in two key domains: 1) civil society and media and 2) higher education. These societal linkages, I argue, are often resilient precisely because they are disconnected from domestic politics and foreign policy. These societal ties should thus be understood not as agents that can reshape bilateral relations but as anchors that prevent the two nations from drifting apart.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Civil Society, Bilateral Relations, Media, Higher Education, Bureaucracy, and Polarization
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, North Africa, and United States of America

22. Turkey and the US in the Middle East: A Case for Alliance Change

Author:
Meliha Benli Altunisik
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
Turkey-US relations in the Middle East have evolved significantly in recent years. Initially based on shared threat perceptions and strategic outlooks during the Cold War, the alignment became characterized by divergences on some issues after the Gulf War in 1991. Their relationship in the Middle East has even become hostile in recent years. Turkey’s increased regional aspirations and evolving threat perceptions in the Middle East, framed within an ontological security narrative, have strained bilateral ties. This shift is compounded by divergent worldviews influenced by domestic political changes in both countries. Despite these challenges, the alliance persists within NATO, albeit with complexities arising from the interplay of external pressures and internal dynamics. This article explores these dynamics using a Neoclassical Realist framework to explain how Ankara’s evolving threat perceptions and ontological security concerns have reshaped Turkey-US relations in the Middle East amid changing global and regional contexts.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Alliance, Neoclassical Realism, and Threat Perception
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

23. Turkey’s Vision Transforms Post-Assad Syria

Author:
Hay Ertan Cohen Yanarocak
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Ankara aims to establish lasting influence through military expansion, strategic infrastructure projects, and economic agreements, including maritime treaties. Through its assertive Neo-Ottomanist policies Ankara aims become the primary architect of Syria’s future while countering rival powers like Iran and Russia.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Infrastructure, Bashar al-Assad, and Regional Power
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

24. The New Syria and the Regional Balance of Power

Author:
Amjed Rasheed
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The sudden fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime on 8 December 2024 and the subsequent rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), now leading the Syrian interim government in the country, have dramatically shaped the regional balance of power. Remarkably, the HTS-led interim government has been making some serious attempts to consolidate its control, and boost legitimacy, but also rebuild Syria after 14 years of civil war and a half-a-century of Assad dynasty rule. In its pursuit to achieve these ends, the interim government has launched diplomatic efforts toward regional and international powerhouses. Everybody, including Russia, is currently welcome to visit Damascus. Yet there is also failure so far to open up the transition to others, which could generate grievances and lead to disruptive regional interference. While the success of such a policy remains to be gauged, the HTS approach to accommodate regional contradiction is worth explaining.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Syrian War, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Turkey, Middle East, Syria, and Gulf Nations

25. Transformation of Turkish-Russian Relations: Rivalry and Cooperation in Eurasia and the Levant

Author:
Mustafa Aydin
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
Relations between Russia and Türkiye have developed considerably since the end of the Cold War. What began as energy trade in the late 1980s evolved into cooperation in business, energy, construction, tourism, politics and even security. Behind the ever-expanding cooperation lies a mistrust fueled by historical enmity and regional rivalry that occasionally leads to confrontation. As the two countries seek to shape their competitive cooperation beyond the current geopolitical challenges and constraints of regional security and alliances, the question of whether they could find ways to advance their partnership is of paramount importance and has regional and global implications. This paper seeks to understand how they have managed their conflict-ridden past to develop a modus operandi in the post-Cold War world by proposing a new conceptual model, namely “competitive cooperation” or “coopetition”, to understand the relationship that developed over the last 30 years in different geographical regions.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, Rivalry, and Competitive Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, Turkey, Middle East, Mediterranean, and Black Sea

26. Schengen Visa Deadlock: The Unresolved Case of Turkish Citizens

Author:
Burak Erdenir
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
The visa policy of the European Union (EU) member states against Turkish citizens has been a controversial topic for decades. Millions of Turkish citizens suffer from serious restrictions before their travel to the Schengen area for the purpose of their non-gainful activities. In time, two main options appeared before the visa-free travel of Turkish citizens, namely the opportunity brought by the interpretations of the Court of Justice of the EU (CJEU) based on the “stand-still clause” and secondly the Visa Liberalisation Dialogue. The objective of the article is to discuss whether the visa regime against Turkish citizens is justified or politically motivated. It connects the technical/legal analysis to a political analysis through the securitization theory. Security framing practices of the European actors at various policy levels are analyzed to explain the continuation of the restrictive visa regime against Turkish citizens despite two strong options that could have ensured visa-free travel. This article concludes that as a result of developments following the failed coup attempt in 2016, visa-free travel of Turkish citizens which was framed through the perceived threat of Turkish migration has transformed into a real threat.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, European Union, Visa, Securitization, and Court of Justice of the EU (CJEU)
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

27. Foreign Language Acquisition and Learning of Late Ottoman Ambassadors and Consuls (1885-1910)

Author:
Mehmet Halil Mustafa Bektaş
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
The Ottoman Foreign Ministry underwent profound adjustments and transformations during the institutionalization process in the late Ottoman Empire. These developments significantly influenced the training of diplomats within the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, particularly from the latter half of the nineteenth century onwards, enhancing the professional competence and training of Ottoman diplomats. In this sense, this article aims to thoroughly examine the impact of institutionalization process within the Ottoman Foreign Ministry on diplomats’ acquisition and learning of foreign languages. The primary source for this study will be the registry files (sicill-i ahval) from the Ottoman Archives. Employing a prosopographic approach, the study will analyze the foreign language proficiency of late Ottoman ambassadors and consuls, along with their methods of language acquisition. By doing so, this article seeks to advance our understanding of the process of professionalization and specialization within Ottoman diplomacy.
Topic:
Ottoman Empire, Diplomatic History, Ambassador, Consul, and Foreign Language Education
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Ottoman Empire

28. İmamoğlu Arrested: Türkiye Shifting to Autocracy

Author:
Aleksandra Maria Spancerska
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Demonstrations in Türkiye erupted in March when the Istanbul prosecutor’s office launched an investigation of that city’s mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), the main opponent of current head of state Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in the 2028 presidential contest. The attack on the opposition candidate appears to be a turning point indicating Türkiye’s entry onto the path of authoritarianism, which will negatively affect the state of Turkish-EU relations.
Topic:
European Union, Domestic Politics, Autocracy, and Ekrem İmamoğlu
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

29. Examining Political Parties’ Perspectives on Foreign Policy through Their Election Manifestos: 2023 General Elections in Türkiye

Author:
Ibrahim Yılmaz
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
The election manifestos, published by political parties before a general election, provide important information about what the countries’ domestic and foreign policies might be like. In Türkiye, it might be argued that the attitudes of political parties toward foreign policy are important to voters. Political parties in Türkiye state, in general, their approach to foreign policy in their general election manifestos. The aim of this study is related to the approaches of political parties’ foreign policy perspectives. The perspectives of political parties on foreign policy are examined through their 2023 general election manifestos. More specifically, the aim of this study is twofold. Firstly, to understand how much importance political parties give to the issue of foreign policy in their election manifestos and secondly, to examine what are the raised key issues in foreign policy within the election manifestos.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Elections, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

30. Q&A | Disbanding the PKK: A turning point in Turkey’s longest war?

Author:
Nancy Ezzeddine
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
On 12 May 2025, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) officially announced its decision to disband and end its armed struggle. Designated a terrorist organization by Turkey and several of its allies, the group has waged a decades-long insurgency for Kurdish autonomy and rights. This announcement followed a unilateral ceasefire declared on 1 March, after the PKK’s imprisoned leader, Abdullah Öcalan, issued a call for the group to disarm. The PKK has previously made commitments to peace, but last week’s announcement is unprecedented. In this Q&A, ACLED Middle East Analyst Nancy Ezzeddine explains how this development compares to previous efforts, what motivates each side, and whether it marks the start of a sustainable peace process.
Topic:
Insurgency, Kurds, PKK, and Peace Process
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

31. Russia’s Deterrence Strategy in Nagorno-Karabakh

Author:
Miguel Paradela López
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:
Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:
The article analyzes the two-part strategy Russia developed to address the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in 2020. First, the country helped to weaken Armenia’s position in Nagorno-Karabakh and consolidate Azerbaijan’s. Second, the Russian military deployed peacekeeping troops to the border of the two countries to stabilize the conflict, deter any new Azeri military advance in the region and improve the Russian influence in the Caucasus. Although this strategy was initially successful, as it increased Russia’s military capacity in the region, the unexpected complications Russia experienced during the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 severely weakened its role as peacekeeper and deterrence power. Russia’s involvement in a highly demanding conflict has led to considerable suffering, increased international pressure, and a deteriorated perception of its military power, precluding it from deterring the expansion of a Turkish-backed Azerbaijan. As a result, Russia’s deterring capacity failed as it was uncapable of sending a credible threat to Azerbaijan and this country could achieve historic goals in the region. Consequently, Russia severely compromised its own position in the Caucasus, and increasing pressure over Armenia should be expected.
Topic:
Territorial Disputes, Peacekeeping, Deterrence, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Nagorno-Karabakh

32. The impact on developing economies of WTO dissolution

Author:
Lloyd Barton
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
This report revisits the analysis presented in our April 2024 paper on the potential impact of WTO dissolution, drilling down to quantify national-level impacts for a sample of ten developing economies. Our previous report (The economic impact of abandoning the WTO) focused on presenting aggregated results for developing countries by region and income level. This report drills down to quantify impacts for a sample of ten individual countries: Brazil, Cameroon, China, Egypt, Guatemala, Indonesia, India, South Africa, Turkey, and Vietnam. These countries provide a rich, varied sample that captures the complexity of trade policy in the developing world. Their diversity in geography, economic size, policy orientation, and development stage allows for a nuanced analysis of how WTO dissolution could potentially influence pathways to higher incomes, poverty reduction and economic resilience. Our analysis reinforces the importance of ensuring the WTO can adapt to new trade realities and continue to function as an effective global trade body.
Topic:
Economics, Poverty, Trade, Economic Development, and WTO
Political Geography:
China, Indonesia, Turkey, India, South Africa, Brazil, Vietnam, Egypt, Guatemala, and Cameroon

33. A Tug-of-War that Risks Snapping the Rope: Regional Competition over Post-Assad Syria

Author:
Cengiz Günay, Josefine Paulsen, and Yuki Adachi
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
The sudden fall of the Assad regime occurred amid widespread political and economic crises, regionally and internationally. The prospects for international cooperation on reconstruction — let alone democratization — remain slim. Regional powers pursue ambitious goals but are weakened by domestic challenges and economic stagnation. While most actors agree on preserving the Syrian nation-state, their approach to the interim government under Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) diverge significantly. In this fragile context, there is an imminent risk of re-escalation, and snapping the rope. This Policy Paper analyzes the competing geopolitical interests in the Eastern Mediterranean in the context of Syria’s regime change. Turkey, the former protector of the victorious HTS rebel group, holds strong cards in the geopolitical game for regional dominance. However, HTS is not Ankara’s proxy, and Turkey is currently lacking the economic and political capacity to decisively shape Syria’s future. The Gulf monarchies are all focused on domestic political, social and economic transitions. Nevertheless, they are the only regional powers with the economic power to invest in Syria’s future. However, Saudi Arabia is ideologically wary of HTS, and no actor is eager to fund Turkey’s regional ambitions. Israel seeks to preserve Syria’s territorial unity, yet keep HTS as weak as possible and prevent the rise of extremist Islamist groups. The tug-of-war between Israel and Turkey is one of the most immanent risks of snapping the rope in Syria. Iran and Russia: While Assad’s fall represents a major setback for both actors, both countries have built complex informal networks across Syria. They are now focused on maintaining influence over these networks below the surface. The United States and the EU are barely involved in shaping post-Assad Syria. It seems unlikely that these two actors get actively involved in Syria in the near future.
Topic:
Regime Change, Geopolitics, Syrian War, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Bashar al-Assad, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Qatar, Gulf Nations, and Eastern Mediterranean

34. Strategic Recalibration: Turkey's Decision to End the Oil Agreement with Iraq

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
On July 21, 2025, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced his government's decision not to renew the agreements and protocols signed between Türkiye and Iraq since 1973 regarding the crude oil pipeline extending from Iraq to Türkiye. The agreement, which facilitated oil transport from Kirkuk in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq to the Yumurtalık oil port in southeastern Türkiye, has played a strategic role in delivering millions of barrels of Iraqi oil through the Turkish port of Ceyhan to global markets. Originally renewed in 2010 for fifteen years, the agreement is scheduled to expire on July 27, 2026.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Oil, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Iraq, Turkey, and Middle East

35. The Indian Factor: Analyzing Pakistan-Turkey Rapprochement and its Implications for India

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
In a move that reflects the deepening ties between Pakistan and Turkey, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif visited Turkey on May 25–26, 2025 — his second visit to the country this year — as part of a broader regional diplomatic tour that also included Iran, Azerbaijan, and Tajikistan. The tour aimed to express Pakistan's gratitude and strengthen regional partnerships in the wake of its recent military confrontation with India. Turkey's support for Islamabad during this conflict has strained India–Turkey relations, prompting New Delhi to launch campaigns calling for the boycott of Turkish products and services.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Partnerships, Rapprochement, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, Turkey, and India

36. Ocalan’s Call: Can Peace Be Achieved Between Turkey and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
After four decades of violence claiming at least 40,000 lives, Abdullah Ocalan, founder and leader of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), issued a message from his prison on an island off Istanbul on February 27, 2025. In his statement, Ocalan urged the PKK to lay down its arms, end its resistance against the Turkish state, and dissolve itself. Responding positively to Ocalan's call, the PKK's executive committee announced in early March 2025 that it accepted his proposal and awaited Ankara's response. The initiative aligns with a proposal launched on October 22, 2024, in the Turkish parliament by Devlet Bahceli, leader of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and a key ally of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Bahceli's initiative aimed to facilitate dialogue with Ocalan to disband the PKK, disarm its fighters, and declare an end to terrorism in Turkey—a move endorsed by Erdoğan.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Peace, PKK, and Abdullah Ocalan
Political Geography:
Turkey and Kurdistan

37. The Contemporary Reflection of a Deep-Rooted Tradition: The Chief Rabbinate in Türkiye and Its New Leader

Author:
Nuh Arslantaş
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In our latest issue of Turkeyscope, Prof. Nuh Arslantaş sheds light on the Jewish minority in Turkey and how its positive relationship with the Muslim-majority government stands on centuries of cooperation and commitment to pluralism.
Topic:
Minorities, Pluralism, Muslims, and Jews
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

38. The New Struggle for Syria: Sunni Power Competition in the Post-Asad Era

Author:
Ido Yahel
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In the latest issue of Tel Aviv Notes, Dr. Ido Yahel examines the intra- Sunni dimension of the struggle for influence in post-Asad Syria.
Topic:
Minorities, Syrian War, Sunni, Bashar al-Assad, Shiite, and Post-Conflict
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Jordan, Qatar, and United Arab Emirates

39. Between Power and Paradox: Militarisation, Defence Ambitions, and Turkey’s Strategic Struggles

Author:
Ahmet Erdi Öztürk and Can Selçuki
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Turkey occupies a distinctive position—geographically proximate to the epicentres of regional crises and institutionally is embedded in Western security structures such as NATO. However, Turkey is more than a geopolitical bridge; it has emerged as a multidimensional actor with ambitions to act both as a regional stabilizer and as a global mediator. Turkey’s position within this evolving global order is both advantageous and inherently paradoxical. As a long-standing NATO member, Turkey remains structurally embedded in the Western security architecture. Yet its geostrategic identity—historically, culturally, and geographically intertwined with the volatile landscapes of Eurasia, the Middle East, and North Africa—drives it to adopt a multi-vector foreign policy. From an economic standpoint, Turkey’s position remains marked by deep-seated contradictions. While its customs union with the European Union and strategic access to multiple regional markets confer structural advantages, these are significantly offset by institutional fragility, regulatory ambiguity, and elevated geopolitical risk premiums. Turkey’s defence industry has evolved into more than a military instrument; it is now a key lever for diplomatic influence and geopolitical ambition. Positioned at the heart of NATO, yet often at odds with its Western allies, Ankara has expanded its strategic footprint across the Middle East, North Africa, and the Caucasus by leveraging domestically-developed military platforms. Turkey must articulate a clear strategic rationale to underpin its defence investments. This involves moving beyond reactive threat perceptions and developing a holistic framework that aligns defence policy with broader developmental and diplomatic objectives. The protection of democratic institutions is an integral part of this framework, while two interrelated concepts are essential: economic security and open strategic autonomy.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Geopolitics, Defense Industry, and Militarization
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

40. Turkey’s Defence Industry and the EU SAFE Regulation

Author:
Dimitris Tsarouhas
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
From Ottoman-era modernization through to its advanced capabilities today, Turkey has transformed itself into a major global defence exporter, with $6.3 billion in exports in 2024 and flagship products like the Bayraktar TB2 drone. Turkey leverages its NATO membership and geographic position to strengthen defence ties and secure influence in alliance decision-making, while at the same time contributing to the Alliance advanced technologies. The EU’s Security Action for Europe (SAFE) initiative allocates €150 billion for joint defence procurement to boost Europe’s defence industrial base, reduce reliance on non-EU suppliers, and enhance interoperability. Ankara’s SAFE participation rationale rests on enabling technological collaboration, market access, and stronger EU ties, leveraging Turkey’s expertise in drone systems, cybersecurity, and unmanned technologies. Turkey’s SAFE participation should remain conditional on Ankara improving its bilateral political relations with member states, and on making explicit assurances on the inviolability of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all EU member states.
Topic:
Security, Bilateral Relations, European Union, Regulation, Exports, and Defense Industry
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East