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2. Afghanistan: Meeting the Real World Challenges of Transition
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 01-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The more one looks at the current situation in Afghanistan today, the more likely it seems that Transition will at best produce a weak and divided state and at worst a state that either continues its civil war or comes under Taliban and extremist control. More than a decade of Western intervention has not produced a strong and viable central government, an economy that can function without massive outside aid, or effective Afghan forces. There is no sign that insurgents are being pushed towards defeat or will lose their sanctuaries in Pakistan. This has made every aspect of Transition is a high-risk effort.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Development, Islam, Terrorism, War, Armed Struggle, Counterinsurgency, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Taliban
3. Trends in Militancy across South Asia
- Author:
- Thomas M. Sanderson, Rick "Ozzie" Nelson, Stephanie Sanok Kostro, Zachary I. Fellman, and Rob Wise
- Publication Date:
- 04-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The bulk of international counterterrorism, counterinsurgency, and related efforts over the last decade have focused on targeting a select few extremist organizations such as al Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban. Yet looming security transitions, international fiscal strictures, demographic trends, religious and ethnic tensions, popular dissatisfaction, and weak governance are likely having significant and worrying effects on a wide array of militant actors around the world. A narrow focus on those groups perceived to be the most immediate threats has, at times, come at the cost of a broader understanding of militancy and how it may manifest in a given region.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, South Asia, and Taliban
4. India in Afghanistan: A Rising Power or a Hesitant Power?
- Author:
- Harsh Pant
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Peace and Security Studies
- Abstract:
- Indian diplomacy faced a major setback at the Afghanistan Conference in London in January 2010, where Indian concerns were summarily ignored. In one stroke, Pakistan rendered New Delhi irrelevant in the evolving security dynamic in Afghanistan. When Indian External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna underscored the folly of making a distinction “between good Taliban and bad Taliban,” he was completely out of sync with the larger mood at the conference. Days before this much-hyped conference, senior U.S. military commanders were suggesting that peace talks with the Taliban may be imminent and that Taliban members might even be invited to join the government in Kabul. The West had made up its mind that it was not a question of if, but when and how to exit from Afghanistan, which seemed to be becoming a quagmire for the leaders in Washington and London.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Terrorism, War, Power Politics, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, Washington, India, Taliban, London, and New Delhi
5. What It Will Take to Secure Afghanistan
- Author:
- Max Boot
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Afghanistan is approaching a major inflection point in its long and turbulent history. In 2014 most of the foreign military forces are due to pull out. With them will go the bulk of foreign financing that has accounted for almost all of the state's budget. Twenty fourteen is also the year that Afghanistan is due to hold presidential elections. Hamid Karzai, the only president the country has known since the fall of the Taliban, has said he will not seek another term in office. Thus Afghanistan is likely to have a new president to lead it into a new era. This era will be shaped by many factors, principally decisions made by Afghans themselves, but the United States has the ability to affect the outcome if it makes a sustained commitment to maintain security, improve the political process, and reduce Pakistani interference so as to build on the tenuous gains achieved by the U.S. troop surge since 2010.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Democratization, Islam, Terrorism, War, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and Taliban
6. Haqqani Network Financing: The Evolution of an Industry
- Author:
- Gretchen Peters
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
- Abstract:
- The purpose of this report is to understand and outline the financial architecture that sustains the Haqqani faction of the Afghan insurgency. The Haqqani network (hereafter “the network” or “the Haqqan is”) is widely recognized as a semi-autonomous component of the Taliban and as the deadliest and most globally focused faction of that latter group. What gets far less attention is the fact that the Haqqan is also appear to be the most sophisticated and diversified from a financial standpoint. This report will illustrate that the Haqqani business portfolio mirrors a mafia operation, and illustrate why an understanding of the illicit business side of the network is critical to enriching our understanding of the group. In addition to raising funds from ideologically like minded donors, an activity the Haqqan is have engaged in since the 1980s, information collected for this report indicates that over the past three decades they have penetrated key business sectors, including import-export, transport, real estate and construction in Afghanistan, Pakistan, the Arab Gulf and beyond. The Haqqan is employ violence and intimidation to extort legal firms and prominent community members, and engage in kidnap for ransom schemes. According to investigators, they protect and engage in the trafficking of narcotics and the precursor chemicals used to process heroin (although to a much lesser degree than other factions of the Afghan Taliban). The Haqqan is also appear to operate their own front companies, many of which appear to be directed at laundering illicit proceeds. The broad range of business activities in which the Haqqan is engage suggests that the pursuit of wealth and power may be just as important to net work leaders as the Islamist and nationalistic ideals for which the Haqqan is claim to fight.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Islam, Terrorism, Insurgency, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, Taliban, and Arabia
7. Video-recorded Decapitations: A seemingly perfect terrorist tactic that did not spread
- Author:
- Martin Harrow
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Video-recorded decapitations have an enormous impact, they are cheap and easy, and they allow the terrorists to exploit the potential of the Internet. With these advantages, the tactic would have been expected to quickly spread across the globe as a favored tactic. Yet, years after its invention in 2002, this has not happened. This paper using evolutionary theory finds that video-recorded decapitations have not caught on for locally specific reasons: in the West because the tactic is less accessible than one might expect; in Iraq because of the unwillingness to be associated with Zarqawi, and in the Afghan context, it has not spread because it is mainly relevant for mobilizing resources from abroad, which is not a priority for the Taliban. These are however situational variables, and just as suicide bombings took years to spread, there may be campaigns of video-recorded decapitations as conditions change.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Iraq, Middle East, and Taliban
8. Pakistan: dealing with peace in the tribal areas?
- Author:
- Laila Bokhari
- Publication Date:
- 11-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- The six Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) along Pakistan's western border have long been seen as a hub for militants, some with sympathies to the Taliban and al-Qaeda. The region has increasingly come to the world's attention as a recruitment and training base for groups responsible for attacks on Pakistani soil and as a launch pad for attacks on US troops and their allies in Afghanistan. Even though the various groups comprising the Pakistani Taliban have been around for a number of years, it was only in December 2007 that they formally established themselves as a united force.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and Taliban
9. Afghanistan: Searching for Political Agreement
- Author:
- Gilles Dorronsoro
- Publication Date:
- 04-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The coalition strategy has reached an impasse. None of the efforts attempted since the summer of 2009 has halted the deterioration of the political and security situation. Although a few tactical successes might be possible, the coalition cannot defeat the Taliban or rally local commanders to its side. Moreover, the Karzai government enjoys very limited legitimacy and appears incapable of rebuilding a state that can assume responsibility for its own security in the foreseeable future. The coalition faces the risk of an endless engagement accompanied by an intolerable loss of life and treasure.
- Topic:
- Government, International Cooperation, Terrorism, Treaties and Agreements, and Peacekeeping
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Asia, and Taliban
10. What Comes Next in Yemen? Al-Qaeda, the Tribes, and State-Building
- Author:
- Sarah Phillips
- Publication Date:
- 03-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- News that the failed Christmas Day attack on a U.S. passenger jet was tied to al-Qaeda elements in Yemen prompted questions of whether the fractious Arab state might give rise to a Taliban-style regime. For its part, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has stated its intent to achieve “our great Islamic project: establishing an Islamic Caliphate” but it is vulnerable to the threat that Yemen's tribes may ultimately find its presence a liability.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Islam, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Taliban, Yemen, and Arabia
11. When Should We Talk to Terrorists?
- Author:
- Audrey Kurth Cronin
- Publication Date:
- 05-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The longer a terrorist group has been in existence, the more likely it is to engage in negotiations. Even so, only about 18 percent of terrorist groups engage in talks on strategic issues at all. When groups do enter talks, the most common pattern is for negotiations to drag on, with the conflict occupying a middle ground between a stable cease-fire and high levels of violence. Negotiations do not necessarily result in a cessation of the violence: about half of the groups that have entered negotiations in recent years have continued to be active in their violence as the talks unfolded, typically at a lower level of intensity or frequency. A wide range of variables can determine the efficacy of negotiations. A crucial element in the success or failure of such talks is the ability of policy makers to devise a plan in advance for what will happen when violence does again occur. Those policymakers who are able to unite with their non state negotiating partners in condemning violence are more likely to sustain talks and make progress. Talks with some global affiliates of al-Qaeda, as well as some smaller factions of the Taliban, may hold promise. Talks should not be seen as a “silver bullet” but rather as a way to manage and channel the violence over the long term, a process that often contributes to the decline of groups or their demise, along with other factors.
- Topic:
- Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Taliban
12. Defining the Punjabi Taliban Network
- Author:
- Hassan Abbas
- Publication Date:
- 04-2009
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- CTC Sentinel
- Institution:
- The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
- Abstract:
- On march 30, 2009, militants launched a deadly assault on a police training center outside Lahore, the capital of Pakistan's Punjab Province. Eight police cadets were killed. Less than a month earlier, on March 3, gunmen in Lahore ambushed members of the visiting Sri Lankan cricket team, killing at least eight people. Punjab, the most populated of Pakistan's provinces, has largely escaped the bloodshed plaguing the country's troubled northwest. Yet since 2007, violence has escalated in the province. The bold terrorist attacks in Pakistan's heartland—within Punjab Province and in the Pakistani capital of Islamabad—show that local logistical support for these attacks is attributable to what is often labeled the “Punjabi Taliban” network. The major factions of this network include operatives from Lashkar-i-Jhangvi, Sipah-i-Sahaba Pakistan and Jaysh-i-Muhammad—all groups that were previously strictly focused on Kashmir and domestic sectarian violence.
- Topic:
- Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, Europe, Taliban, and Punjab
13. Overdue Process: Protecting Human Rights while Sanctioning Alleged Terrorists
- Author:
- David Cortright, Alistair Millar, George A. Lopez, and Linda Gerber-Stellingwerf
- Publication Date:
- 04-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
- Abstract:
- Practices used by the United Nations Security Council in the name of countering terrorism have led to serious concerns about violations of human rights and limitations on the work of civil society groups. The use of blacklisting has eroded due process rights and discredited elements of the international fight against terrorism. Enhanced efforts to create clear and fair listing procedures are urgently needed and long overdue.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Human Rights, International Organization, Terrorism, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Taliban
14. Pakistan's IDP Crisis: Challenges and Opportunities
- Publication Date:
- 06-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- In the wake of a conceptually flawed peace agreement, the Taliban takeover of large parts of Malakand division, subsequent military action in the area, almost three million internally displaced persons (IDPs) have fled to camps, homes, schools and other places of shelter across Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP). The challenge for the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP)-led government and international actors is to make relief, rehabilitation and reconstruction efforts responsive to needs and empower local communities in Malakand Division. Failure to do so will reverse any gains on the battlefield and boost radical Islamist groups.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, War, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Central Asia, Asia, and Taliban
15. Are the Afghan Taliban Involved in International Terrorism?
- Author:
- Anne Stenersen
- Publication Date:
- 09-2009
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- CTC Sentinel
- Institution:
- The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
- Abstract:
- In a video aired on ABC News in June 2007, Afghan Taliban commander Mansour Dadullah is shown speaking to a group of around 300 masked men. The men are presented as “suicide bombers” about to go on missions in Western countries, in particular to the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom and Germany. The video created considerable media attention, but was soon dismissed as “jihadist bravado” rather than representing a genuine threat. Two years after it was aired, the Afghan Taliban have yet to put Dadullah's words into action.
- Topic:
- Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Taliban, and Germany
16. Fixing Bagram: Strengthening Detention Reforms to Align with U.S. Strategic Priorities
- Author:
- Sahr MuhammedAlly
- Publication Date:
- 11-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Human Rights First
- Abstract:
- Eight years after launching Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) in Afghanistan—with a mission to kill and capture “high-value” al Qaeda and Taliban members and destroy the safe havens from which al Qaeda planned and directed the 9/11 attacks—the United States government has announced several significant detention reforms in Afghanistan. Human Rights First has closely monitored U.S. detention policies and practices since September 11, 2001. In this paper, we analyze the new detention reforms announced in September 2009 and make recommendations for further improvement in U.S. detention practices in line with U.S. policy interests and legal obligations. We base our recommendations on an analysis of the applicable humanitarian and human rights law and field visits to Afghanistan.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Human Rights, Terrorism, War, and Prisons/Penal Systems
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, and Taliban
17. Reconciling With the Taliban?: Toward an Alternative Grand Strategy in Afghanistan
- Author:
- Ashley J. Tellis
- Publication Date:
- 04-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The run-up to the announcement of President Obama's new "Af-Pak" strategy provoked a flurry of "new solutions" to the conflict. Promoting reconciliation with the Taliban is one idea that has reappeared—even in the administration's own White Paper on U.S. policy toward Afghanistan and Pakistan. While this notion would rightly have been considered ridiculous a few years ago, many in Europe and the United States obviously believe that stabilizing Afghanistan may require just that. In fact, it would be the worst approach at this time—and it is destined to fail so long as key Taliban constituents are convinced that military victory in Afghanistan is inevitable.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, Europe, and Taliban
18. Arguing Afghanistan: what the detractors of NATO's mission get wrong
- Author:
- Patrick Keller
- Publication Date:
- 09-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- NATO Defense College
- Abstract:
- Over the last few years, Afghanistan has become less stable and less secure. There were more than 2,000 civilian casualties in 2008 - more than in any other year since the Taliban regime was overthrown in 2001, and an increase by 40% in comparison to 2007. Coalition forces suffered 294 casualties in 2008, also the highest number so far. This is the direct consequence of a rise in Taliban and insurgent activity, mostly in eastern and southern Afghanistan.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Terrorism, Military Strategy, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Asia, and Taliban
19. "The Rise of Afghanistan's Insurgency: State Failure and Jihad"
- Author:
- Seth G. Jones
- Publication Date:
- 03-2008
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Security
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- In 2001 approximately 100 Central Intelligence Agency officers, 350 U.S. Special Forces soldiers, and 15,000 Afghans overthrew the Taliban regime in less than three months while suffering only a dozen U.S. fatalities. They were supported by as many as 100 U.S. combat sorties per day. Some individuals involved in the operation argued that it revitalized the American way of war. This initial success, however, transitioned into an insurgency, as the Taliban and other insurgent groups began a sustained effort to overthrow the Afghan government. The fighting, which began in 2002, had developed into a full-blown insurgency by 2006. During this period, the number of insurgent-initiated attacks rose by 400 percent, and the number of deaths from these attacks by more than 800 percent. The increase in violence was particularly acute between 2005 and 2006, when the number of suicide attacks quintupled from 27 to 139; remotely detonated bombings more than doubled from 783 to 1,677; and armed attacks nearly tripled from 1,558 to 4,542. Insurgent-initiated attacks rose another 27 percent between 2006 and 2007. The result was a lack of security for Afghans and foreigners.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Government, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, Asia, and Taliban
20. Securing Pakistan's Tribal Belt
- Author:
- Daniel Markey
- Publication Date:
- 07-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Today, few places on earth are as important to U.S. national security as the tribal belt along Pakistan's border with Afghanistan. The region serves as a safe haven for a core group of nationally and internationally networked terrorists, a training and recruiting ground for Afghan Taliban, and, increasingly, a hotbed of indigenous militancy that threatens the stability of Pakistan's own state and society. Should another 9/11-type attack take place in the United States, it will likely have its origins in this region. As long as Pakistan's tribal areas are in turmoil, the mission of building a new, democratic, and stable Afghanistan cannot succeed.
- Topic:
- Terrorism and War
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, Asia, and Taliban