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1. Conflicts and Trends to Watch in 2026

Author:
Jessica Anania, Vicka Heidt, Anna Tuohey, and Jessica M. Smith
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
Abstract:
Entering 2026, the global security landscape is defined by record-high levels of armed conflict, democratic backsliding, geopolitical fragmentation, and an accelerating climate crisis—dynamics unfolding alongside unprecedented cuts to foreign aid and development assistance. These converging pressures are reshaping conflict environments in ways that disproportionately endanger women and girls while eroding the systems meant to protect them, even as women remain central actors in humanitarian response, peacebuilding, and civic resistance. Women, Peace and Security: Conflicts and Trends to Watch in 2026 integrates gender-responsive analysis into conflict forecasting by drawing on insights from the Women, Peace and Security Conflict Tracker and expert consultations. This report identifies three cross-cutting trends expected to shape conflict dynamics in the year ahead: the increasing weaponization of hunger as a tactic of conquest and control, with devastating gendered consequences; political transitions that intensify repression, violence, and women’s exclusion at critical decision-making moments; and worsening climate shocks that compound displacement, insecurity, and economic loss for women and girls. The report also profiles 10 settings—Colombia, Ethiopia, Iran, Israel & Palestine, Mali, Pakistan, South Sudan, Sudan, Ukraine, and Venezuela—where these dynamics are likely to be especially acute in 2026. By centering gendered risks as early warning indicators of instability, this report addresses a critical gap in mainstream conflict analysis and offers policymakers, donors, multilateral institutions, and civil society leaders a more inclusive framework for anticipating crises, protecting civilians, and advancing more durable and inclusive peace and security outcomes.
Topic:
Security, Women, Armed Conflict, Inclusion, Democratic Backsliding, Women, Peace, and and Security (WPS)
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Iran, Sudan, Ukraine, Israel, Colombia, Palestine, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Mali, South Sudan, and Global Focus

2. South Sudan’s peace process stagnates as violence grips Greater Upper Nile region

Author:
Stefan Bakumenko
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
In September 2024, South Sudan’s government postponed elections until 2026.1 This and other violations of the 2018 Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS) reinforce the country’s deep divisions and continued, widespread violence.2 After a devastating civil war (2013-2018), politicians, generals, and communities have lacked a unifying identity or incentive and have focused on shoring up their political power, undermining their rivals, and diversifying their economic holdings. As South Sudan’s oil fields dry up, wealth and sustenance are carved out wherever they can be found, often violently.3 The central government in Juba deprives national institutions of funding, neither state nor rebel forces are committed to integrating into a unified military, and state officials at all levels exploit their positions to fund expensive lifestyles and large patronage networks.4 Politicians have long plundered South Sudan’s main source of wealth, its state-owned oil company, Nilepet, to fuel their wars and wealth, and the country remains economically destitute.5 Across South Sudan, violence has become more geographically dispersed as armed groups have fractured. Between 1 January 2013 and the signing of R-ARCSS on 12 September 2018, there were conflict events in 718 distinct locations, compared to 1,720 between 13 September 2018 and 17 January 2025 (see maps below). Given these realities, the peace process could hardly address South Sudan’s myriad, local-level contests over borders, resources, and political positions.6
Topic:
Elections, Violence, Armed Conflict, and Peace Process
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

3. Assessing the impact of US funding cuts on communities and humanitarian response: Case studies from South Sudan and Mali

Author:
ALNAP
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
ALNAP: Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance
Abstract:
The report examines two country contexts – Mali and South Sudan – which both combine a strong prior presence of US funding, active humanitarian coordination structures and acute levels of needs. The findings shed light on how funding fluctuations influence humanitarian access, service delivery and community coping mechanisms, offering a crucial perspective on resource-driven shifts in the aid system from the perspective of both implementing actors and communities.
Topic:
Foreign Aid, USAID, Humanitarian Assistance, and Aid Cuts
Political Geography:
Africa, Mali, South Sudan, and United States of America

4. Exploring the UN’s Interventionist Role in South Sudan: Peacemaking, Peacekeeping, and Peacebuilding

Author:
Norman Sempijja
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
The role of the United Nations (UN) in conflict intervention in Africa has undergone a significant transformation, shifting from a central actor to a more supportive role. Regional organizations, such as the African Union (AU) and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), have taken the lead in mediation and conflict resolution on the continent. While the UN continues to play a crucial part in peacekeeping and peacebuilding, its role is increasingly impacted by fragmented responsibilities, regional political dynamics, and operational constraints. In assessing how these factors have influenced the effectiveness of UN intervention, this study draws the case of South Sudan. Specifically, it examines whether the UN’s peripheral role in peacemaking has directly impacted its ability to implement peacekeeping and peacebuilding efforts, or whether broader structural and political challenges are more decisive in shaping its effectiveness. By analyzing the complex interactions between the UN, regional organizations, and the realities of the conflict in South Sudan, this study argues that the UN’s limited role in peace negotiations is not the primary determinant of its success or failure. Instead, the combined effects of institutional fragmentation, competing regional interests, and the unstable political landscape of South Sudan have shaped the outcomes of UN interventions. These findings challenge the assumption that the UN’s peripheral role inherently weakens its impact, demonstrating that its effectiveness depends on how well it navigates these broader structural challenges. This study contributes to the ongoing debates on the evolving nature of international peace operations in Africa and the need for better coordination between global and regional actors to achieve sustainable peace.
Topic:
Development, United Nations, Peacekeeping, and African Union
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

5. On The Brink: The Politics of Violence in South Sudan

Author:
Joshua Craze
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
South Sudan is once again on the brink of war. The regime of South Sudanese President Salva Kiir is bombing civilians and detaining the opposition, while foreign embassies close and evacuate staff. The Ugandan army has installed itself in Juba, the country’s capital, to assist Kiir’s regime’s suppression of the opposition. Both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese army are also now participating in the conflict inside South Sudan. While Kiir has appointed a successor, Benjamin Bol Mel, he may not have the political capital to take over. The current conflict may be a prelude for a much more destructive civil war. On The Brink: The Politics of Violence in South Sudan—a new Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) project—examines what led South Sudan to delay elections scheduled for December 2024 and considers the likely ensuing civil war. It focuses on the place of the Tumaini Peace Initiative in South Sudan’s political compact, the effects of the war in Sudan on politics in the country, Kiir’s contested succession, and the violence scarring the region.
Topic:
Civil War, Violence, Armed Conflict, and Rapid Support Forces (RSF)
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

6. Fragile States Index 2024 – Annual Report

Author:
Nate Haken, Paul Turner, Emily Sample, Fatoumata Maiga, and Perin Arkun
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Fund for Peace
Abstract:
The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and fragile states, The Fragile States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.
Topic:
Climate Change, Authoritarianism, Fragile States, and Political stability
Political Geography:
India, Brazil, Mozambique, Senegal, Tunisia, Somalia, Balochistan, South Sudan, Sahel, Global Focus, Niger, and Burkina Faso

7. "Tremors of an Impending Explosion": Warning Signs of Mass Atrocities in South Sudan

Author:
United States Holocaust Memorial Museum Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
Political arrests and armed conflict have put South Sudan at heightened risk for a return to civil war and ethnic cleansing. Possible triggers for mass killing include the removal from power of key leaders and large-scale attacks on civilians based on ethnic identity. The situation requires urgent diplomatic pressure, scrutiny, and support for community-led mass atrocity prevention efforts to reverse this trajectory.
Topic:
Ethnicity, Atrocities, Armed Conflict, and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

8. R2P Monitor, Issue 68, 1 March 2024

Author:
Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
R2P Monitor is a quarterly publication applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 68 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), China, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Haiti, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Myanmar (Burma), Nicaragua, Nigeria, Sudan, Syria, Ukraine, Venezuela, Cameroon, Central African Republic, South Sudan and Yemen.
Topic:
Human Rights, International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, China, Sudan, Ukraine, Israel, North Korea, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Nicaragua, Haiti, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Sahel, Central African Republic, and Global Focus

9. R2P Monitor, Issue 70, 1 September 2024

Author:
Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
R2P Monitor is a quarterly publication applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 70 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Haiti, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Myanmar (Burma), Nicaragua, Nigeria, Sudan, Syria, Ukraine, Venezuela, Central African Republic and South Sudan. Updates for Cameroon, China and Yemen are available on our Populations at Risk page.
Topic:
Human Rights, International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Sudan, Ukraine, Israel, North Korea, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Nicaragua, Haiti, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Myanmar, South Sudan, Sahel, and Central African Republic

10. R2P Monitor, Issue 71, 1 December 2024

Author:
Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
R2P Monitor is a quarterly publication applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 71 looks at developments in Afghanistan, the Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Haiti, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Myanmar (Burma), Nicaragua, Nigeria, Sudan, Syria, Ukraine, Venezuela, Central African Republic and South Sudan. Updates for Cameroon, China and Yemen are also available on our Populations at Risk page.
Topic:
Human Rights, International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Sudan, Ukraine, Israel, North Korea, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Nicaragua, Haiti, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Myanmar, South Sudan, Sahel, and Central African Republic