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81. R2P Monitor, Issue 48, 15 November 2019

Author:
Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 48 looks at developments in Afghanistan, China, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Yemen, Cameroon, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali and Burkina Faso, Burundi, Central African Republic, Libya, South Sudan and Venezuela.
Topic:
Genocide, Human Rights, International Law, Conflict, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, China, Libya, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Syria, Venezuela, Burundi, Mali, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, and Burkina Faso

82. R2P Monitor, Issue 46, 15 July 2019

Author:
Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the Responsibility to Protect lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 46 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Yemen, Cameroon, Mali and Burkina Faso, Sudan, Central African Republic, Libya, Nigeria, South Sudan and Venezuela.
Topic:
Genocide, Human Rights, International Law, United Nations, Ethnic Cleansing, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Sudan, Libya, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Syria, Venezuela, Nigeria, Mali, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, and Burkina Faso

83. R2P Monitor, Issue 45, 15 May 2019

Author:
Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the Responsibility to Protect lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 45 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Yemen, Cameroon, Nigeria, Burundi, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories, Mali, South Sudan and Venezuela.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Human Rights, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Israel, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Syria, Venezuela, Nigeria, Burundi, Mali, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, and Global Focus

84. R2P and Outcomes of the Human Rights Council’s 40th Session

Author:
Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
The 40th regular session of the Human Rights Council (HRC) was held in Geneva between 25 February and 22 March 2019. As the primary international human rights body, the Human Rights Council has the capacity to prevent and respond to mass atrocity crimes, as systematic violations and abuses of human rights can be potential indicators of genocide, war crimes, crimes against humanity or ethnic cleansing. The summary below highlights major outcomes and relevant dialogues from the 40th session as they relate to the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) populations from such crimes. As part of the session, the Netherlands delivered a statement on behalf of members of the Group of Friends of R2P.
Topic:
International Law, State Violence, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), Atrocities, and UN Human Rights Council (HRC)
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, North Korea, Palestine, United Nations, Nicaragua, Syria, Myanmar, South Sudan, and Global Focus

85. R2P Monitor, Issue 44, 15 March 2019

Author:
Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the Responsibility to Protect lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 44 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Yemen, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Burundi, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories, Nigeria, South Sudan, Sudan and Venezuela.
Topic:
Human Rights, International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Sudan, Israel, Yemen, Palestine, Syria, Venezuela, Nigeria, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, and Global Focus

86. R2P Monitor, Issue 43, 15 January 2019

Author:
Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the Responsibility to Protect lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 43 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Central African Republic, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Yemen, Cameroon, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories, Nicaragua, Nigeria, South Sudan and Venezuela.
Topic:
Human Rights, International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Sudan, Israel, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Nicaragua, Syria, Nigeria, Burundi, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, and Global Focus

87. Record Number of Forcibly Displaced Africans Likely to Grow

Author:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
With Africa's population expected to double by 2050, the rapid increase in the number of forcibly displaced Africans of the past decade will continue to expand unless key drivers are reversed.
Topic:
Migration, United Nations, Diaspora, and Displacement
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, Somalia, Eritrea, South Sudan, and Central African Republic

88. Timeline of South Sudan Peace Agreements and Violence

Author:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Despite multiple ceasefires and peace agreements signed since the conflict began in 2013, the humanitarian costs to the citizens of South Sudan continue to grow.
Topic:
Civil War, Humanitarian Intervention, Negotiation, Violence, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, East Africa, South Sudan, and Central Africa

89. Climate Change, Carbon Politics, and Kenya’s Democratic Future

Author:
Jacqueline M. Klopp and Abdullahi Boru Halakhe
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
Carbon politics is playing out in oil-producing African countries with lethal consequences. Countries like Nigeria, Angola, Sudan, and South Sudan are conflict-ridden and economically unequal, and, as climate change concerns clash with new fossil fuel-driven development efforts, carbon politics is taking on ever-greater significance. While the scramble for fossil fuels could increase authoritarianism as it spreads in East Africa, an ecologically-driven imperative to address climate change could reinforce stronger democratic institutions.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Oil, Natural Resources, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, Nigeria, Angola, East Africa, and South Sudan

90. Theories of Democratic Change Phase III: Transitions from Conflict

Author:
Jennifer R. Dresden, Thomas E. Flores, and Irfan Nooruddin
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of International Education (IIE)
Abstract:
The notion that robust democracy and violent conflict are linked is commonplace. Many observers of international politics attribute violent conflict in contexts as diverse as Myanmar and Syria to failures of democracy. Conversely, most agree that continuing political violence undermines any effort to build strong democratic institutions in Libya or South Sudan. As a matter of policy, democratization has often been promoted not only as an end in itself but as a means toward building peace in societies scarred by violence. Development professionals tackle these challenges daily, confronting vicious cycles of political violence and weak democratic institutions. At the same time, scholars have dedicated intense scrutiny to these questions, often finding that the interrelationships between conflict and democracy belie easy categorization. This report, the third in a series on democratic theories of change, critically engages with this literature to ask three questions: Under what circumstances do democratic practice or movement toward democracy quell (or exacerbate) the risk of different kinds of violent conflict? Under what circumstances do the risk and experience of violent conflict undermine democratic practice? How can external interventions mitigate risks and capitalize on opportunities inherent in transitions to democracy and peace? To answer these questions, a research team at George Mason University and Georgetown University spent eight months compiling, organizing, and evaluating the academic literature connecting democratic practice and violent conflict, which spans the fields of political science, economics, peace studies, anthropology, sociology, and psychology. This work was funded by USAID’s Center of Excellence on Democracy, Human Rights, and Governance (the DRG Center), under the Institute of International Education’s (IIE’s) Democracy Fellows and Grants Program. Beginning in May 2018, the authors organized a team of three research assistants, who read and summarized more than 600 journal articles, books, reports, and newspaper articles. The resulting White Paper was the subject of an August 2018 workshop with representatives from USAID and an interdisciplinary group of eight scholars with expertise in conflict and democracy. Based on their feedback, the authors developed a new Theories of Change Matrix and White Paper in October 2018. This draft received further written feedback from USAID and another three scholars. The core team then revised the report again to produce this final draft. This report’s approach to the literature differs from past phases of the Theories of Democratic Change project. While past reports detailed the hypothesized causes of democratic backsliding (Phase I) and democratic transitions (Phase II), this report focuses on the reciprocal relationship between democratic practice and conflict. The report therefore organizes hypotheses into two questions and then sub-categories within each question.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Education, Democracy, Conflict, Political Science, and USAID
Political Geography:
Libya, Syria, North America, Myanmar, South Sudan, Global Focus, and United States of America

91. THE CONTRIBUTION OF THE UNITED NATIONS POLICE TO THE PROTECTION OF CIVILIANS IN SOUTH SUDAN

Author:
Josias Marcos de Resende Silva
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conjuntura Austral: Journal of the Global South
Institution:
Conjuntura Austral: Journal of the Global South
Abstract:
On 8 July 2011, the Security Council established the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) to consolidate peace and security, and to help implement conditions for development. On 15 December 2013, violence broke out in the capital Juba and spread to several other locations, resulting in a countrywide armed conflict. The crisis had disastrous consequences for human rights in many parts of the country, especially in areas of greatest military confrontation. During the hostilities, UNMISS estimates that thousands of people were killed. Both parties to the conflict failed to comply with international humanitarian and human rights law directing attacks on civilians based on their ethnicity. As a result, a large number of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) sought refuge in UNMISS bases.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, United Nations, Conflict, and Police
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

92. South Sudan and Israel: A love affair in a changing region?

Author:
Haim Koren
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
Haim Koren analyzes the ongoing relationship between Israel and South Sudan. From the beginning, it made strategic sense for Israel to provide military aid to rebels in South Sudan. This would serve as a useful distraction to Egypt and Sudan, and would open a new and vulnerable front against the Arab World. However, it wasn’t until the June 1967 war that Israel truly acted upon this opportunity, following Khartoum’s decision to support Egypt in that conflict. [1] Joseph Lago, then the leader of the South Sudanese Anya-Nya ("Viper Venom") guerrilla organization, appealed desperately to Israel, asking it to help in preventing integration of Sudanese units within the Egyptian army by pinning them down in an ongoing conflict with the fighters of South Sudan. This would carry a number of advantages for Israel, including strengthening Israel’s operational connections with Kenya and Ethiopia, which were states within Israel’s geo-strategic ‘second circle.’ Providing such aid would also carry moral weight: Israel would help a nation struggling for independence against what south Sudanese felt to be Islamic “tyranny.”
Topic:
International Relations, Bilateral Relations, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, Middle East, Israel, and South Sudan

93. War Crimes and Punishment: The Terrain Compound Attack and Military Accountability in South Sudan, 2016–18

Author:
Flora McCrone
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
On 11 July 2016, government forces stormed Terrain, a residential compound in Juba, South Sudan. Systematic violence, looting, and vandalism ensued—including one fatality, multiple incidents of rape and torture, as well as destroyed property. War Crimes and Punishment: The Terrain compound attack and military accountability in South Sudan, 2016–18, a Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) project, examines both the attack and the subsequent special court martial that followed from May 2017 to September 2018. Despite the SPLA’s sub-par record of providing justice for victims of war crimes, the paper finds that when certain individuals and their interests align, accountability can be achieved through formal justice mechanisms.
Topic:
War Crimes, Conflict, Accountability, and Justice
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, and South Sudan

94. Displaced and Immiserated: The Shilluk of Upper Nile in South Sudan’s civil war, 2014–19

Author:
Joshua Craze
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
The civil war that began in South Sudan in December 2013 has had dire consequences for the Shilluk people of Upper Nile, with civilians killed, villages and buildings destroyed, and humanitarian aid blocked. Although exact figures are elusive, estimates suggest that as much as 50 per cent of the Shilluk population has left the country during the current civil war—a figure that rises to 80 per cent if internally displaced people are included. Displaced and Immiserated: The Shilluk of Upper Nile in South Sudan’s civil war, 2014–19, a report from the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for the Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) project, places events in Upper Nile from 2014–19 in their historical context and analyzes the main military tactics employed by government forces in Shilluk areas.
Topic:
Civil War, Displacement, and Violence
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, and South Sudan

95. Research Workshop on the Role of Civilians in Preventing and Mitigating Mass Atrocities

Author:
Jamie Wise
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
On June 13-14, 2019, the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide at the US Holocaust Memorial Museum convened a workshop with case study research partners and other scholars to discuss the Center’s ongoing project on the role of civilians in preventing and mitigating mass atrocities. This rapporteur’s report summarizes major observations raised on the first day of the workshop, during which all participants made contributions.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, Civilians, Donors, and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:
Sri Lanka, Democratic Republic of the Congo, South Sudan, and Global Focus

96. DO REFUGEE ENCAMPMENT POLICIES CONTRIBUTE TO COMMUNAL CONFLICT?

Author:
Kerstin Fisk
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:
Placing refugees in formal encampments remains the preferred policy solution for most host states in the developing world, where about 90 percent of the world’s forcibly displaced are settled. Although UNHCR and other aid agencies increasingly call for alternatives to camps, host states’ preference for camp settlement is driven by perceptions that refugees are threats to national security, and that encampment policies minimize their economic and security impacts on host populations. Encampment can, for instance, increase tensions between refugees when camps concentrate refugee populations from different sides of the same conflict—such as Sudanese Dinka and Sudanese Nuer—together. Tensions between local hosts and refugees are likely to worsen when camps become militarized and are targeted for forced recruitment by militants—host populations often blame refugees for the militants’ infiltration. Refugee encampment has also been shown to worsen host-refugee relations by contributing to environmental degradation in areas surrounding camps.
Topic:
Refugees, Displacement, Conflict, Settlements, and UNHCR
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

97. Revitalising the Peace in South Sudan

Author:
Sandra Tombe
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
The date 12 January 2019 marked four months since the government of South Sudan, under the leadership of President Salva Kiir; the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement in Opposition (SPLM-IO), under Riek Machar; and the South Sudan Opposition Alliance, among others, signed the Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS) in September 2018. The agreement stipulates that its implementation will be done in two stages. First, the Pre-Transitional Phase (PTP) has an eight-month time frame in which parties to the agreement, through the National Pre-Transitional Committee (NPTC), will prepare for the implementation of the R-ARCSS. Phase Two, effectively, is the implementation phase: a three-year period of a Revitalised Transnational Government of National Unity (RTGoNU) to begin at the end of the PTP. The three-year period of the RTGoNU is then to be followed by national elections. Although Kiir released some political prisoners and detainees in accordance with the R-ARCSS shortly after its signing, there was no shortage of concerns regarding whether the agreement would hold. The R-ARCSS – an endeavour to resuscitate its predecessor of 2015, the Agreement on the Resolution of Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (ARCSS) – is the 12th such attempt at present to broker peace between the main opposition parties and end the conflict in the world’s newest state. If anything can be gleaned from the short South Sudanese past in relation to the conflict, it is that one has no reason to expect a significantly different outcome from the R-ARCSS. It could fall apart the way agreements that came before it did. However, times have also changed, and there is a potentially different outcome that could be expected. At this juncture, Sudan to the north and Uganda to the south are much more “invested in peace” in South Sudan. For Sudan, not only does championing peace present President Omar Al-Bashir with the opportunity to rebrand himself regionally as a peacemaker, but it also diverts from the turmoil and uncertainty he faces at home because of the tanking Sudanese economy, which recently led to the declaration of a state of emergency.2 For Uganda, brokering peace not only allows it to counter recent credible reports of its role in arms supply to the South Sudanese warring parties, but it may provide the state with an opportunity to show a “positive” side of its interventionist politics in the region – if not quite a paradigm shift in its foreign policy.3 Uganda also faces an influx of thousands of South Sudanese refugees, displaced by the violence and insecurity in their home country. For both Sudan and Uganda, the war in South Sudan comes with significant costs, including economic challenges that only worsen with time.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Peace, Transition, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

98. Reviving Peace in South Sudan through the Revitalised Peace Agreement

Author:
Clayton Hazvinei Vhumbunu
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
The signing of the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS) on 12 September 2018 in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, by the warring parties in South Sudan, has been widely extolled and commended as a significant development signalling the dawn of peace. The peace deal is an attempt to revive the Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (ARCSS) of 17 August 2015, which had apparently broken down as a result of the outbreak of civil war triggered by the violent confrontations that erupted on the night of 7 July 2016 in Juba. Whilst it is not very surprising that almost all South Sudanese, stakeholders to the conflict and commentators across Africa and beyond have expressed fervent hope, generous optimism and great expectations for peace and stability, given the intractability of the conflict in South Sudan, it is equally important to undertake a timely analysis of the R-ARCSS – specifically the possible and probable interplay of factors that may have implications for the success, or otherwise, of the peace agreement. The idea is always to systematically and constructively identify critical issues that may be pertinent to consider as all relevant stakeholders invest efforts towards peacemaking, peacekeeping and peacebuilding processes in South Sudan. This article therefore examines the R-ARCSS within the context of the South Sudanese internal and external conflict environment, and presents the key enablers and obstacles to the success of the peace agreement.
Topic:
Civil War, Diplomacy, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

99. The Role of U.N. Peacekeeping in China’s Expanding Strategic Interests

Author:
Marc Lanteigne
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Despite its growing status as a major economic and military power, China continues to be a strong supporter of UN peacekeeping operations. China is not only the second-largest financial contributor to UN peacekeeping (after the United States), it has roughly 2,500 personnel deployed in ongoing missions, including in active combat zones in Mali and South Sudan—far more than any other permanent member of the UN Security Council. This Special Report examines what China hopes to gain from its participation in UN peacekeeping, as well as the challenges it will face as its troops find themselves in more dangerous “peace enforcement” situations.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Peace
Political Geography:
China, Asia, Mali, and South Sudan

100. South Sudan’s Civil War and Conflict Dynamics in the Red Sea

Author:
Payton Knopf
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The five-year-old civil war in South Sudan is an unparalleled humanitarian and security crisis, causing the largest exodus of refugees on the African continent since the Rwandan genocide and leaving over a third of the population displaced and two-thirds severely food insecure. Beyond the human toll on South Sudan’s long-suffering citizens, the country’s unraveling underscores the shifting political and security fault lines in the Horn of Africa. This Special Report surveys the region’s various interstate hostilities and intrastate conflicts and suggests ways the United States can reassert its influence to begin contributing meaningfully to the resolution of South Sudan’s civil war and conflicts in the greater Red Sea region.
Topic:
Security, Civil War, Conflict, Peace, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan