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Begin New Search Political Geography South Sudan

1. South Sudan’s peace process stagnates as violence grips Greater Upper Nile region

Author:
Stefan Bakumenko
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
In September 2024, South Sudan’s government postponed elections until 2026.1 This and other violations of the 2018 Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS) reinforce the country’s deep divisions and continued, widespread violence.2 After a devastating civil war (2013-2018), politicians, generals, and communities have lacked a unifying identity or incentive and have focused on shoring up their political power, undermining their rivals, and diversifying their economic holdings. As South Sudan’s oil fields dry up, wealth and sustenance are carved out wherever they can be found, often violently.3 The central government in Juba deprives national institutions of funding, neither state nor rebel forces are committed to integrating into a unified military, and state officials at all levels exploit their positions to fund expensive lifestyles and large patronage networks.4 Politicians have long plundered South Sudan’s main source of wealth, its state-owned oil company, Nilepet, to fuel their wars and wealth, and the country remains economically destitute.5 Across South Sudan, violence has become more geographically dispersed as armed groups have fractured. Between 1 January 2013 and the signing of R-ARCSS on 12 September 2018, there were conflict events in 718 distinct locations, compared to 1,720 between 13 September 2018 and 17 January 2025 (see maps below). Given these realities, the peace process could hardly address South Sudan’s myriad, local-level contests over borders, resources, and political positions.6
Topic:
Elections, Violence, Armed Conflict, and Peace Process
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

2. The Western Sahara conflict has been described as a ‘frozen conflict’ and as ‘decolonisation’s last stand.’ Despite the multiple ceasefires throughout its history, the conflict has not been fully resolved. Since 1974, Western Sahara has been on the shortlist of non-self-governing territories. However, it is the only one on the list that has not condoned this status. The Polisario Front spent 50 years fighting for the independence of the Sahrawi Arab Republic from Morocco, mostly using arms and guerrilla warfare. This period of violence was followed by a ceasefire between the two stakeholders. Nonetheless, in 2020, Morocco’s response to the Sahrawi protests resulted in a resumption of fighting by the Polisario Front, essentially reopening ‘Pandora’s Box’ and showing that, despite the ceasefire, a permanent solution is urgently needed. This would need to happen within the broader African security landscape, which is currently experiencing a shift amidst the weakening of United Nations (UN) peacekeeping operations, the growing presence of various private military companies (PMC), and the emerging role of countries such as Russia and Türkiye in African conflict situations. Considering the aforementioned changes, this article seeks to assess whether these shifts in the African security landscape will influence the situation in Western Sahara by maintaining the status quo or revitalising the efforts to resolve or exacerbate the existing tensions.

Author:
Ibrahim Sakawa Magara and Miranda Rivers
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
This article (re)appraises the role of civil society in South Sudan’s peace process. Situated at the confluence of civil society inclusion/exclusion, the significance of civil society participation and its contribution to peace processes, the article contributes to literature on inclusive and sustainable peace. The article employs a qualitative case analysis to illuminate the dynamics of civil society participation in the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD)-led peace process for South Sudan. The article engages with factors that compromise the efficacy of civic action in South Sudan and issues that are injurious to the sector’s legitimacy. The article neither downplays the complexity and precarity of the environment in which the South Sudanese civil society finds itself nor overplays the importance and contributions of civil society to the peace process. More importantly, it reveals that civil society in South Sudan is severely fragmentated and suggests that this fragmentation needs to be addressed as it simultaneously compromises civil society’s peacemaking efficacy and undermines the sector’s legitimacy. In the end, the article adds to the view that civil society is not always a force for peace and the sector’s inclusion; participation does not necessarily contribute to legitimising or sustaining peace processes and their outcomes.
Topic:
Civil Society, Peace, Sustainability, Inclusion, Fragmentation, Peace Process, Peacemaking, and Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD)
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

3. R2P Monitor, Issue 68, 1 March 2024

Author:
Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
R2P Monitor is a quarterly publication applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 68 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), China, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Haiti, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Myanmar (Burma), Nicaragua, Nigeria, Sudan, Syria, Ukraine, Venezuela, Cameroon, Central African Republic, South Sudan and Yemen.
Topic:
Human Rights, International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, China, Sudan, Ukraine, Israel, North Korea, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Nicaragua, Haiti, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Sahel, Central African Republic, and Global Focus

4. R2P Monitor, Issue 70, 1 September 2024

Author:
Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
R2P Monitor is a quarterly publication applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 70 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Haiti, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Myanmar (Burma), Nicaragua, Nigeria, Sudan, Syria, Ukraine, Venezuela, Central African Republic and South Sudan. Updates for Cameroon, China and Yemen are available on our Populations at Risk page.
Topic:
Human Rights, International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Sudan, Ukraine, Israel, North Korea, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Nicaragua, Haiti, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Myanmar, South Sudan, Sahel, and Central African Republic

5. R2P Monitor, Issue 71, 1 December 2024

Author:
Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
R2P Monitor is a quarterly publication applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 71 looks at developments in Afghanistan, the Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Haiti, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Myanmar (Burma), Nicaragua, Nigeria, Sudan, Syria, Ukraine, Venezuela, Central African Republic and South Sudan. Updates for Cameroon, China and Yemen are also available on our Populations at Risk page.
Topic:
Human Rights, International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Sudan, Ukraine, Israel, North Korea, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Nicaragua, Haiti, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Myanmar, South Sudan, Sahel, and Central African Republic

6. "A Perfect Storm is Gathering": Risk of Mass Atrocities in South Sudan

Author:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
The Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide has published two reports detailing the risk of mass atrocities in South Sudan, first in February 2022 and then in January 2023.1 In these reports, we identified a number of factors contributing to the risk of mass atrocities in South Sudan, including armed conflict in which civilians are targeted for brutal attacks, shrinking civic space, and the failure to fully and credibly implement measures of the peace agreement that ended South Sudan’s civil war in 2018. These challenges persist, exacerbated by the onset of war in neighboring Sudan and the impacts of severe flooding and drought. In September 2024, the government of South Sudan announced a two-year extension of the transitional period and postponed the holding of national elections. This extension is an opportunity for the government to make progress on key commitments to peace and justice. However, this delay is not itself a panacea for the mass atrocity risks that persist in South Sudan, which could see a return to violence if the transition falters or fails. This brief will examine ongoing and compounding risk factors for mass atrocities and offer recommendations for addressing these risks during the next two years.
Topic:
Elections, Transitional Justice, Atrocities, Armed Conflict, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

7. Pay Day Loans and Backroom Empires: South Sudan’s Political Economy since 2018

Author:
Joshua Craze
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
Though elections are now postulated for next year, South Sudan remains in crisis. Conflict continues to scar the country, and climatic shocks exacerbate already acute resource scarcity, leaving approximately 76 per cent of South Sudan’s population surviving on humanitarian assistance. The regime of South Sudanese President Salva Kiir survives by diverting revenues in three key areas—oil production, humanitarianism, and loans from international financial institutions—to the benefit of an elite class in Juba, but at the cost of the immiseration of the people of South Sudan. Pay Day Loans and Backroom Empires: South Sudan’s Political Economy since 2018—a Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) project—analyses this predatory political economy in South Sudan, and charts a shift from the use of wages to reward loyal appointees to a more obscure system based on the dispensations of favours.
Topic:
Security, Corruption, Political Economy, Elections, Conflict, and Revenue
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, and South Sudan

8. R2P Monitor, Issue 67, 1 December 2023

Author:
Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
R2P Monitor is a quarterly publication applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 67 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Cameroon, Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Haiti, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Myanmar (Burma), Nicaragua, Nigeria, Sudan, Syria, Ukraine, Venezuela, Central African Republic, South Sudan and Yemen.
Topic:
Human Rights, International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, China, Sudan, Ukraine, Israel, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Nicaragua, Haiti, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Mali, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Niger, and Burkina Faso

9. R2P Monitor, Issue 66, 1 September 2023

Author:
Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
R2P Monitor is a quarterly publication applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 66 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Cameroon, Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Myanmar (Burma), Nicaragua, Nigeria, Sudan, Syria, Ukraine, Venezuela, Central African Republic, Ethiopia, Haiti, South Sudan and Yemen.
Topic:
Human Rights, International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, China, Sudan, Ukraine, Israel, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Nicaragua, Haiti, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Mali, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Niger, and Burkina Faso

10. R2P Monitor, Issue 65, 1 June 2023

Author:
Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
R2P Monitor is a quarterly publication applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 65 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Cameroon, Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Myanmar (Burma), Nicaragua, Nigeria, Sudan, Syria, Ukraine, Venezuela, Central African Republic, Ethiopia, Mozambique, South Sudan and Yemen.
Topic:
Human Rights, International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, China, Sudan, Ukraine, Israel, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Nicaragua, Mozambique, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Mali, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Niger, and Burkina Faso

11. R2P Monitor, Issue 64, 1 March 2023

Author:
Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
R2P Monitor is a quarterly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 64 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Myanmar (Burma), Nigeria, Syria, Ukraine, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Mozambique, South Sudan, Sudan and Yemen.
Topic:
Human Rights, International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, China, Sudan, Ukraine, Israel, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Mozambique, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Mali, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Niger, and Burkina Faso

12. On Designating the 14-Mile Area in the Cooperation Agreement: Missteps and Implications for Peace in South Sudan

Author:
Garang Yach James, James Alic Garang, and Joseph Geng Akech
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
Using a literature-based review methodology, this paper examines the questions, fairness, and implications relating to the inclusion of the 14-Mile Area in the September 2012 Cooperation Agreement signed between Sudan and South Sudan. It finds that previous colonial arrangements and the subsequent inclusion of this area under the rubric of disputed territories muddied the waters, thus giving a wrong impression to the public about what was originally unintended and sanctioned. Second, it finds that the Malual Dinka community remains justified in arguing that the 14-Mile Area is undisputed. The fact that Arab nomads from Sudan have been permitted to enjoy access to the grazing and cross-border trade benefits does not confer right of ownership over the strip. Seen from this context, the article examines the implications of including the 14-Mile Area in the Cooperation Agreement and arrives at policy recommendations designed to ensure community resource management and investments in the area. Thus, the article advances not just community-to-community peace, but also regional peace and stability. It concludes by beseeching the governments of both Sudan and South Sudan to exclude the 14-Mile Area from any discussion of disputed areas of international borders. The article advocates that local communities should be given an unencumbered opportunity to manage issues of access to grazing areas by Sudanese nomads based on community-to-community negotiations, which have always been the tradition.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Territorial Disputes, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, and South Sudan

13. Transferring Policy: The African Union’s Protection of Civilians Policy in Peacekeeping Missions in Somalia and South Sudan

Author:
Andrew E. Yaw Tchie and Liezelle Kumalo
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
The African Union’s (AU’s) doctrine underlying Peace Support Operations (PSOs) highlights the fact that the AU should take the lead in providing political direction for all AU PSOs. This includes mainstreaming the standards and operating procedures applicable to the Protection of Civilians (PoC). The PoC guidelines mandate the AU to support and complement the efforts of the host state by enhancing its capacity to secure civilians and prevent abuse against them. The guidelines have allowed the AU to develop and grow its institutional capacity and emerge as the continent’s leading institution. It provides fragile member states with technical support through African led and AU-mandated missions (crafting the concept of operations, training and implementation and procedures for peace operations). However, little is known about how the AU transfers its PoC policy to member states during peacekeeping missions. This paper assesses the institutional capacity of the AU and its ability to influence specific national PoC policies and approaches through AU PSO and United Nations Peacekeeping Operations (UN PKOs). The paper highlights that although the AU has made progress in PoC policy, it has not been implemented effectively and practically in South Sudan and Somalia, despite being a significant priority for the organisation.
Topic:
Peacekeeping, Civilians, and African Union
Political Geography:
Africa, Somalia, and South Sudan

14. Worsening Risk of Mass Atrocities in South Sudan

Author:
Sarah McIntosh and Naomi Kikoler
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
The United States Holocaust Memorial Museum's Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide published a report in February 2022 detailing the immediate risk of mass atrocities facing South Sudanese civilians.1 Since then, threats facing South Sudanese civilians have worsened and the government of South Sudan has failed to take action to mitigate these threats.2 Attacks against civilians have continued, leading thousands of people to be killed, injured, or displaced. Experts told Simon-Skjodt Center staff that they feared the world's youngest country would slip back into full scale war. This stems from both the highly complex conflict dynamics throughout the country with different geographic regions experiencing unique forms of violence from distinct perpetrators as well as the South Sudanese government's recent decision to delay for two years the deadline for implementing the peace agreement and for conducting national elections. Their actions suggest that those most responsible for past abuses may intend to cling to power and evade justice for their actions. The need to take decisive preventative and protective action is urgent.
Topic:
Impunity, Civilians, Atrocities, Armed Conflict, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

15. Oxfam’s Engagement with Refugee-led Organisations in West Nile (Uganda): Lessons on opportunities and challenges

Author:
Yotam Gidron, Lydia Ayikoru, Geoffrey Owino, Katja Kjar-Levin, and Marie Sophie Petersson
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Since 2018, Oxfam in Uganda has been supporting South Sudanese refugee-led organizations (RLOs) with funding for a range of peacebuilding, COVID-19 and livelihood activities. Drawing on this experience, this briefing note summarizes some of the most important lessons learned in the working relationship of Oxfam and Uganda-based RLOs. Practical recommendations are also drawn that may be useful for international actors working with RLOs in various contexts, focusing on how to nurture meaningful partnerships, including with regards to funding, capacity building, representation of women and youth, advocacy, knowledge sharing and visibility.
Topic:
Civil Society, Partnerships, Refugees, and Localization
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, and South Sudan

16. Local Perceptions of UN Peacekeeping: A Look at the Data

Author:
Albert Trithart
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
Recent anti-UN protests have fueled concerns that some UN peacekeeping operations are facing a “crisis of legitimacy” among host-state populations. Without local legitimacy, there are questions about whether peacekeepers should be present. Peacekeeping operations also depend on local legitimacy to effectively implement their mandates. It is therefore important to understand how local populations perceive UN peacekeepers. While researchers have studied local perceptions within specific peacekeeping contexts and compared historical data on local perceptions in past peacekeeping operations, few have compared recent data on local perceptions of current missions. This article therefore explores existing data on local perceptions of the four current multidimensional UN peacekeeping operations: the missions in the Central African Republic (CAR), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Mali, and South Sudan. This data points to several cross-cutting insights that could help inform conversations around local perceptions of UN peacekeeping. The paper concludes that there is wide variation in perceptions of peacekeepers, both between and within peacekeeping contexts and across time. This means that it rarely makes sense to talk about UN peacekeeping operations having or lacking “legitimacy.” Instead, they have multiple “legitimacies.” Understanding the factors behind these legitimacies requires better data on and nuanced analysis of local perceptions.
Topic:
United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Legitimacy
Political Geography:
Africa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali, South Sudan, and Central African Republic

17. Changing Lakes State? Rin Tueny’s Inclusive Deterrence Approach in Practice

Author:
Jan Pospisil
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
Rin Tueny has achieved success in pacifying parts of Lakes state, including the Greater Rumbek area. His methods, however, have prioritised security and deterrence over human rights and legal norms. Consequently, there is little meaningful institutional oversight. While Lakes state may appear to be a ‘success’ story, a relapse into turmoil is possible. Changing Lakes State? Rin Tueny’s Inclusive Deterrence Approach in Practice—a new Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) project—analyses the components of Rin Tueny’s ‘inclusive deterrence’ approach in Lakes state, South Sudan, and its blind spots. It also discusses the possibility of this approach being institutionalized at the national level.
Topic:
Security, Human Rights, and Deterrence
Political Geography:
Africa, South Sudan, and Lakes State

18. Research Report: Women’s Meaningful Participation in Post-Conflict: Mechanisms and Challenges in Colombia, Nepal and South Sudan

Author:
Jocelyne Enriquez, Ali Foote, Alani Frace, Pía Madanes Quintanilla, and Siaira Milroy
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Global Network of Women Peacebuilders (GNWP)
Abstract:
The inclusion of women in peace processes and post-conflict governance has been shown to have positive effects on the duration of peace and on social inclusion.1 For instance, women representatives might encourage an increase of resources spent on public services rather than on the military2 and they improve public perceptions of the government which contributes to preventing conflict relapse.3 These conflict-prevention effects are highly desirable, reinforcing the call for the participation of women at all decision-making levels in national, regional, and international institutions and mechanisms for the prevention, management, and resolution of conflict. This is reinforced by United Nations (UN) Security Council Resolution (SCR) 1325 and subsequent resolutions on women’s participation in peace processes: SCRs 1889 (2013), 2122 (2013), 2242 (2015), and 2493 (2019). Post-conflict peacebuilding contexts generate opportunities for women advocates to demand the presence of women in decision-making spaces and the wider public sphere,4 which contributes to women’s empowerment.5 Research on the correlation between the end of war and women’s increased political participation further illustrates this point. Tripp’s 2015 research6 on Africa and Berry’s 2018 research7 in Rwanda and Bosnia-Herzegovina have found that conflict resolution in these contexts have had positive effects on women’s political agency.
Topic:
Governance, Women, Participation, Post-Conflict, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Colombia, Nepal, South Sudan, and Global Focus

19. The Periphery Cannot Hold: Upper Nile since the Signing of the R-ARCSS

Author:
Joshua Craze
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
Upper Nile is in chaos. A once durable alliance between the national government in Juba and the Padang Dinka in Malakal has given way to a much more uncertain situation, in which the regime of South Sudanese President Salva Kiir sets feuding elites against each other. Disorder has proved an effective tool of rule. In Upper Nile, Kiir's regime has successfully peeled off Eastern Nuer commanders once loyal to Riek Machar's Sudan People's Liberation Army in Opposition (SPLA-IO). Following a brutal dry season campaign against the SPLA-IO waged by these commanders, Machar's opposition suffered an almost total collapse of support in Upper Nile. The rump of the SPLA-IO fighting forces had already split from Machar in 2021, and formed the Kitgwang faction, which hoped to acquire materiel and money in Khartoum to fund a renewed war. However, thanks to a regional realignment that means Sudan and South Sudan are allies, the Kitgwang found no succour in Khartoum, and was easily divided by Kiir's regime. The current fighting in Upper Nile is the fallout from the two parts of the Kitgwang being set against each other by the government. Clashes have displaced more than 10,000 people, and taken on a worryingly ethnic dimension that Kiir's regime will struggle to control.
Topic:
Politics, Armed Forces, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, South Sudan, and Upper Nile

20. 'And Everything Became War': Warrap State since the Signing of the R-ARCSS

Author:
Joshua Craze
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
In Warrap state, home to South Sudanese President Salva Kiir and much of the country's political and military elite, many hoped that the signing of a peace agreement in 2018 would bring an end to the violence that had scarred their country for the previous five years. Instead, in Warrap, violence intensified, and pitted communities against each other in increasingly brutal tit-for-tat attacks that targeted women, children, homes, and the very capacities of communities to sustain life. At the war's end, everything became war. Such clashes are often dismissed as 'inter-communal violence' delinked from the politics of the peace agreement. 'And Everything Became War': Warrap State since the Signing of the R-ARCSS—a report from the Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) project—demonstrates that the conflict raging in Warrap is instead deeply political, and a consequence of the way that Kiir's regime maintains power by setting feuding elites against each other. In Warrap, the South Sudanese state has suffered an almost total collapse in political legitimacy, and cattle-guards have emerged as the only actors on the ground with genuine community support that can resist the predatory state, even if they are also instrumentalized by it. 'And Everything Became War' is the first in-depth study of conflict dynamics in Warrap state since the beginning of the South Sudanese civil war. Based on extensive fieldwork, the report makes one central conclusion: as South Sudan enters its fourth year of ‘peace’, everything has become war, and the South Sudanese government is the war’s cause rather than the solution.
Topic:
Security, Politics, Treaties and Agreements, Conflict, and Elites
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, and South Sudan