Political Geography: South Sudan - CIAO Search Results

1. Conflicts and Trends to Watch in 2026

Author:: Jessica Anania, Vicka Heidt, Anna Tuohey, and Jessica M. Smith
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
Abstract:: Entering 2026, the global security landscape is defined by record-high levels of armed conflict, democratic backsliding, geopolitical fragmentation, and an accelerating climate crisis—dynamics unfolding alongside unprecedented cuts to foreign aid and development assistance. These converging pressures are reshaping conflict environments in ways that disproportionately endanger women and girls while eroding the systems meant to protect them, even as women remain central actors in humanitarian response, peacebuilding, and civic resistance. Women, Peace and Security: Conflicts and Trends to Watch in 2026 integrates gender-responsive analysis into conflict forecasting by drawing on insights from the Women, Peace and Security Conflict Tracker and expert consultations. This report identifies three cross-cutting trends expected to shape conflict dynamics in the year ahead: the increasing weaponization of hunger as a tactic of conquest and control, with devastating gendered consequences; political transitions that intensify repression, violence, and women’s exclusion at critical decision-making moments; and worsening climate shocks that compound displacement, insecurity, and economic loss for women and girls. The report also profiles 10 settings—Colombia, Ethiopia, Iran, Israel & Palestine, Mali, Pakistan, South Sudan, Sudan, Ukraine, and Venezuela—where these dynamics are likely to be especially acute in 2026. By centering gendered risks as early warning indicators of instability, this report addresses a critical gap in mainstream conflict analysis and offers policymakers, donors, multilateral institutions, and civil society leaders a more inclusive framework for anticipating crises, protecting civilians, and advancing more durable and inclusive peace and security outcomes.
Topic:: Security, Women, Armed Conflict, Inclusion, Democratic Backsliding, Women, Peace, and and Security (WPS)
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Iran, Sudan, Ukraine, Israel, Colombia, Palestine, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Mali, South Sudan, and Global Focus

2. South Sudan’s peace process stagnates as violence grips Greater Upper Nile region

Author:: Stefan Bakumenko
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: In September 2024, South Sudan’s government postponed elections until 2026.1 This and other violations of the 2018 Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS) reinforce the country’s deep divisions and continued, widespread violence.2 After a devastating civil war (2013-2018), politicians, generals, and communities have lacked a unifying identity or incentive and have focused on shoring up their political power, undermining their rivals, and diversifying their economic holdings. As South Sudan’s oil fields dry up, wealth and sustenance are carved out wherever they can be found, often violently.3 The central government in Juba deprives national institutions of funding, neither state nor rebel forces are committed to integrating into a unified military, and state officials at all levels exploit their positions to fund expensive lifestyles and large patronage networks.4 Politicians have long plundered South Sudan’s main source of wealth, its state-owned oil company, Nilepet, to fuel their wars and wealth, and the country remains economically destitute.5 Across South Sudan, violence has become more geographically dispersed as armed groups have fractured. Between 1 January 2013 and the signing of R-ARCSS on 12 September 2018, there were conflict events in 718 distinct locations, compared to 1,720 between 13 September 2018 and 17 January 2025 (see maps below). Given these realities, the peace process could hardly address South Sudan’s myriad, local-level contests over borders, resources, and political positions.6
Topic:: Elections, Violence, Armed Conflict, and Peace Process
Political Geography:: Africa and South Sudan

3. Exploring the UN’s Interventionist Role in South Sudan: Peacemaking, Peacekeeping, and Peacebuilding

Author:: Norman Sempijja
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Social Science Research Council
Abstract:: The role of the United Nations (UN) in conflict intervention in Africa has undergone a significant transformation, shifting from a central actor to a more supportive role. Regional organizations, such as the African Union (AU) and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), have taken the lead in mediation and conflict resolution on the continent. While the UN continues to play a crucial part in peacekeeping and peacebuilding, its role is increasingly impacted by fragmented responsibilities, regional political dynamics, and operational constraints. In assessing how these factors have influenced the effectiveness of UN intervention, this study draws the case of South Sudan. Specifically, it examines whether the UN’s peripheral role in peacemaking has directly impacted its ability to implement peacekeeping and peacebuilding efforts, or whether broader structural and political challenges are more decisive in shaping its effectiveness. By analyzing the complex interactions between the UN, regional organizations, and the realities of the conflict in South Sudan, this study argues that the UN’s limited role in peace negotiations is not the primary determinant of its success or failure. Instead, the combined effects of institutional fragmentation, competing regional interests, and the unstable political landscape of South Sudan have shaped the outcomes of UN interventions. These findings challenge the assumption that the UN’s peripheral role inherently weakens its impact, demonstrating that its effectiveness depends on how well it navigates these broader structural challenges. This study contributes to the ongoing debates on the evolving nature of international peace operations in Africa and the need for better coordination between global and regional actors to achieve sustainable peace.
Topic:: Development, United Nations, Peacekeeping, and African Union
Political Geography:: Africa and South Sudan

4. On The Brink: The Politics of Violence in South Sudan

Author:: Joshua Craze
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: South Sudan is once again on the brink of war. The regime of South Sudanese President Salva Kiir is bombing civilians and detaining the opposition, while foreign embassies close and evacuate staff. The Ugandan army has installed itself in Juba, the country’s capital, to assist Kiir’s regime’s suppression of the opposition. Both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese army are also now participating in the conflict inside South Sudan. While Kiir has appointed a successor, Benjamin Bol Mel, he may not have the political capital to take over. The current conflict may be a prelude for a much more destructive civil war. On The Brink: The Politics of Violence in South Sudan—a new Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) project—examines what led South Sudan to delay elections scheduled for December 2024 and considers the likely ensuing civil war. It focuses on the place of the Tumaini Peace Initiative in South Sudan’s political compact, the effects of the war in Sudan on politics in the country, Kiir’s contested succession, and the violence scarring the region.
Topic:: Civil War, Violence, Armed Conflict, and Rapid Support Forces (RSF)
Political Geography:: Africa and South Sudan

5. Fragile States Index 2024 – Annual Report

Author:: Nate Haken, Paul Turner, Emily Sample, Fatoumata Maiga, and Perin Arkun
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Fund for Peace
Abstract:: The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and fragile states, The Fragile States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.
Topic:: Climate Change, Authoritarianism, Fragile States, and Political stability
Political Geography:: India, Brazil, Mozambique, Senegal, Tunisia, Somalia, Balochistan, South Sudan, Sahel, Global Focus, Niger, and Burkina Faso

6. R2P Monitor, Issue 68, 1 March 2024

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: R2P Monitor is a quarterly publication applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 68 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), China, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Haiti, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Myanmar (Burma), Nicaragua, Nigeria, Sudan, Syria, Ukraine, Venezuela, Cameroon, Central African Republic, South Sudan and Yemen.
Topic:: Human Rights, International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, China, Sudan, Ukraine, Israel, North Korea, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Nicaragua, Haiti, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Sahel, Central African Republic, and Global Focus

7. R2P Monitor, Issue 70, 1 September 2024

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: R2P Monitor is a quarterly publication applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 70 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Haiti, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Myanmar (Burma), Nicaragua, Nigeria, Sudan, Syria, Ukraine, Venezuela, Central African Republic and South Sudan. Updates for Cameroon, China and Yemen are available on our Populations at Risk page.
Topic:: Human Rights, International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Sudan, Ukraine, Israel, North Korea, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Nicaragua, Haiti, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Myanmar, South Sudan, Sahel, and Central African Republic

8. R2P Monitor, Issue 71, 1 December 2024

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: R2P Monitor is a quarterly publication applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 71 looks at developments in Afghanistan, the Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Haiti, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Myanmar (Burma), Nicaragua, Nigeria, Sudan, Syria, Ukraine, Venezuela, Central African Republic and South Sudan. Updates for Cameroon, China and Yemen are also available on our Populations at Risk page.
Topic:: Human Rights, International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Sudan, Ukraine, Israel, North Korea, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Nicaragua, Haiti, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Myanmar, South Sudan, Sahel, and Central African Republic

9. "A Perfect Storm is Gathering": Risk of Mass Atrocities in South Sudan

Author:: Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:: The Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide has published two reports detailing the risk of mass atrocities in South Sudan, first in February 2022 and then in January 2023.1 In these reports, we identified a number of factors contributing to the risk of mass atrocities in South Sudan, including armed conflict in which civilians are targeted for brutal attacks, shrinking civic space, and the failure to fully and credibly implement measures of the peace agreement that ended South Sudan’s civil war in 2018. These challenges persist, exacerbated by the onset of war in neighboring Sudan and the impacts of severe flooding and drought. In September 2024, the government of South Sudan announced a two-year extension of the transitional period and postponed the holding of national elections. This extension is an opportunity for the government to make progress on key commitments to peace and justice. However, this delay is not itself a panacea for the mass atrocity risks that persist in South Sudan, which could see a return to violence if the transition falters or fails. This brief will examine ongoing and compounding risk factors for mass atrocities and offer recommendations for addressing these risks during the next two years.
Topic:: Elections, Transitional Justice, Atrocities, Armed Conflict, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:: Africa and South Sudan

10. 'Some Level of Peace': Addressing Intercommunal Violence Through Customary Justice in South Sudan

Author:: Agatha Ndonga
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Abstract:: This report examines the role of customary justice plays in addressing massive human rights violations in South Sudan. Customary justice has long been the primary way in which most communities in the country resolve disputes, given its accessibility as well as the inadequate capacity of state judicial institutions. Its limitations, however, include issues of security, gender discrimination, and politicization. Customary justice was not intended to deal with the more extreme elements of intercommunal conflict, but in practice it often does, including by incorporating elements of accountability, compensation, and acknowledgment. Customary justice can play a role in resolving disputes and repairing relationships in South Sudan in the context of intense violence and serious violations. In such contexts, however, customary justice faces additional or more intensified challenges than it does in ordinary circumstances, including challenges related to the power imbalance between traditional authorities and armed youth, militarization of violence and the role of security sector actors, and the limited capacity of customary justice actors to enforce decisions. Overall, there is a level of complexity to the violence and a lack of clarity on customary justice’s proper role that limits its value. The report suggests that the transitional justice framework set up by the Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan provides opportunities to develop a hybrid approach that uses both formal and customary justice; takes into account the complexity of the violence; and offers clarity, support, and guidance for both government and customary justice actors. This potential is especially clear with regard to the Commission for Truth, Reconciliation and Healing (CTRH), which is tasked with supervising customary justice processes in facilitating truth, reconciliation, healing, and reparation. The report concludes with recommendations for the CTRH and other stakeholders to address these challenges, take advantage of opportunities, and adapt customary justice in a victim-centered manner in the context of complex intercommunal violence.
Topic:: Criminal Justice, Justice, Reparations, Gender, Youth Engagement, and Peace Process
Political Geography:: Africa and South Sudan

11. The Western Sahara conflict has been described as a ‘frozen conflict’ and as ‘decolonisation’s last stand.’ Despite the multiple ceasefires throughout its history, the conflict has not been fully resolved. Since 1974, Western Sahara has been on the shortlist of non-self-governing territories. However, it is the only one on the list that has not condoned this status. The Polisario Front spent 50 years fighting for the independence of the Sahrawi Arab Republic from Morocco, mostly using arms and guerrilla warfare. This period of violence was followed by a ceasefire between the two stakeholders. Nonetheless, in 2020, Morocco’s response to the Sahrawi protests resulted in a resumption of fighting by the Polisario Front, essentially reopening ‘Pandora’s Box’ and showing that, despite the ceasefire, a permanent solution is urgently needed. This would need to happen within the broader African security landscape, which is currently experiencing a shift amidst the weakening of United Nations (UN) peacekeeping operations, the growing presence of various private military companies (PMC), and the emerging role of countries such as Russia and Türkiye in African conflict situations. Considering the aforementioned changes, this article seeks to assess whether these shifts in the African security landscape will influence the situation in Western Sahara by maintaining the status quo or revitalising the efforts to resolve or exacerbate the existing tensions.

Author:: Ibrahim Sakawa Magara and Miranda Rivers
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: This article (re)appraises the role of civil society in South Sudan’s peace process. Situated at the confluence of civil society inclusion/exclusion, the significance of civil society participation and its contribution to peace processes, the article contributes to literature on inclusive and sustainable peace. The article employs a qualitative case analysis to illuminate the dynamics of civil society participation in the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD)-led peace process for South Sudan. The article engages with factors that compromise the efficacy of civic action in South Sudan and issues that are injurious to the sector’s legitimacy. The article neither downplays the complexity and precarity of the environment in which the South Sudanese civil society finds itself nor overplays the importance and contributions of civil society to the peace process. More importantly, it reveals that civil society in South Sudan is severely fragmentated and suggests that this fragmentation needs to be addressed as it simultaneously compromises civil society’s peacemaking efficacy and undermines the sector’s legitimacy. In the end, the article adds to the view that civil society is not always a force for peace and the sector’s inclusion; participation does not necessarily contribute to legitimising or sustaining peace processes and their outcomes.
Topic:: Civil Society, Peace, Sustainability, Inclusion, Fragmentation, Peace Process, Peacemaking, and Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD)
Political Geography:: Africa and South Sudan

12. Pay Day Loans and Backroom Empires: South Sudan’s Political Economy since 2018

Author:: Joshua Craze
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: Though elections are now postulated for next year, South Sudan remains in crisis. Conflict continues to scar the country, and climatic shocks exacerbate already acute resource scarcity, leaving approximately 76 per cent of South Sudan’s population surviving on humanitarian assistance. The regime of South Sudanese President Salva Kiir survives by diverting revenues in three key areas—oil production, humanitarianism, and loans from international financial institutions—to the benefit of an elite class in Juba, but at the cost of the immiseration of the people of South Sudan. Pay Day Loans and Backroom Empires: South Sudan’s Political Economy since 2018—a Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) project—analyses this predatory political economy in South Sudan, and charts a shift from the use of wages to reward loyal appointees to a more obscure system based on the dispensations of favours.
Topic:: Security, Corruption, Political Economy, Elections, Conflict, and Revenue
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, and South Sudan

13. Oxfam’s Engagement with Refugee-led Organisations in West Nile (Uganda): Lessons on opportunities and challenges

Author:: Yotam Gidron, Lydia Ayikoru, Geoffrey Owino, Katja Kjar-Levin, and Marie Sophie Petersson
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Since 2018, Oxfam in Uganda has been supporting South Sudanese refugee-led organizations (RLOs) with funding for a range of peacebuilding, COVID-19 and livelihood activities. Drawing on this experience, this briefing note summarizes some of the most important lessons learned in the working relationship of Oxfam and Uganda-based RLOs. Practical recommendations are also drawn that may be useful for international actors working with RLOs in various contexts, focusing on how to nurture meaningful partnerships, including with regards to funding, capacity building, representation of women and youth, advocacy, knowledge sharing and visibility.
Topic:: Civil Society, Partnerships, Refugees, and Localization
Political Geography:: Uganda, Africa, and South Sudan

14. Local Perceptions of UN Peacekeeping: A Look at the Data

Author:: Albert Trithart
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:: Recent anti-UN protests have fueled concerns that some UN peacekeeping operations are facing a “crisis of legitimacy” among host-state populations. Without local legitimacy, there are questions about whether peacekeepers should be present. Peacekeeping operations also depend on local legitimacy to effectively implement their mandates. It is therefore important to understand how local populations perceive UN peacekeepers. While researchers have studied local perceptions within specific peacekeeping contexts and compared historical data on local perceptions in past peacekeeping operations, few have compared recent data on local perceptions of current missions. This article therefore explores existing data on local perceptions of the four current multidimensional UN peacekeeping operations: the missions in the Central African Republic (CAR), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Mali, and South Sudan. This data points to several cross-cutting insights that could help inform conversations around local perceptions of UN peacekeeping. The paper concludes that there is wide variation in perceptions of peacekeepers, both between and within peacekeeping contexts and across time. This means that it rarely makes sense to talk about UN peacekeeping operations having or lacking “legitimacy.” Instead, they have multiple “legitimacies.” Understanding the factors behind these legitimacies requires better data on and nuanced analysis of local perceptions.
Topic:: United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Legitimacy
Political Geography:: Africa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali, South Sudan, and Central African Republic

15. R2P Monitor, Issue 67, 1 December 2023

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: R2P Monitor is a quarterly publication applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 67 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Cameroon, Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Haiti, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Myanmar (Burma), Nicaragua, Nigeria, Sudan, Syria, Ukraine, Venezuela, Central African Republic, South Sudan and Yemen.
Topic:: Human Rights, International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, China, Sudan, Ukraine, Israel, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Nicaragua, Haiti, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Mali, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Niger, and Burkina Faso

16. R2P Monitor, Issue 66, 1 September 2023

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: R2P Monitor is a quarterly publication applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 66 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Cameroon, Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Myanmar (Burma), Nicaragua, Nigeria, Sudan, Syria, Ukraine, Venezuela, Central African Republic, Ethiopia, Haiti, South Sudan and Yemen.
Topic:: Human Rights, International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, China, Sudan, Ukraine, Israel, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Nicaragua, Haiti, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Mali, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Niger, and Burkina Faso

17. R2P Monitor, Issue 65, 1 June 2023

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: R2P Monitor is a quarterly publication applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 65 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Cameroon, Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Myanmar (Burma), Nicaragua, Nigeria, Sudan, Syria, Ukraine, Venezuela, Central African Republic, Ethiopia, Mozambique, South Sudan and Yemen.
Topic:: Human Rights, International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, China, Sudan, Ukraine, Israel, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Nicaragua, Mozambique, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Mali, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Niger, and Burkina Faso

18. R2P Monitor, Issue 64, 1 March 2023

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: R2P Monitor is a quarterly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 64 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Myanmar (Burma), Nigeria, Syria, Ukraine, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Mozambique, South Sudan, Sudan and Yemen.
Topic:: Human Rights, International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, China, Sudan, Ukraine, Israel, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Mozambique, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Mali, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Niger, and Burkina Faso

19. Changing Lakes State? Rin Tueny’s Inclusive Deterrence Approach in Practice

Author:: Jan Pospisil
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: Rin Tueny has achieved success in pacifying parts of Lakes state, including the Greater Rumbek area. His methods, however, have prioritised security and deterrence over human rights and legal norms. Consequently, there is little meaningful institutional oversight. While Lakes state may appear to be a ‘success’ story, a relapse into turmoil is possible. Changing Lakes State? Rin Tueny’s Inclusive Deterrence Approach in Practice—a new Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) project—analyses the components of Rin Tueny’s ‘inclusive deterrence’ approach in Lakes state, South Sudan, and its blind spots. It also discusses the possibility of this approach being institutionalized at the national level.
Topic:: Security, Human Rights, and Deterrence
Political Geography:: Africa, South Sudan, and Lakes State

20. Research Report: Women’s Meaningful Participation in Post-Conflict: Mechanisms and Challenges in Colombia, Nepal and South Sudan

Author:: Jocelyne Enriquez, Ali Foote, Alani Frace, Pía Madanes Quintanilla, and Siaira Milroy
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Global Network of Women Peacebuilders (GNWP)
Abstract:: The inclusion of women in peace processes and post-conflict governance has been shown to have positive effects on the duration of peace and on social inclusion.1 For instance, women representatives might encourage an increase of resources spent on public services rather than on the military2 and they improve public perceptions of the government which contributes to preventing conflict relapse.3 These conflict-prevention effects are highly desirable, reinforcing the call for the participation of women at all decision-making levels in national, regional, and international institutions and mechanisms for the prevention, management, and resolution of conflict. This is reinforced by United Nations (UN) Security Council Resolution (SCR) 1325 and subsequent resolutions on women’s participation in peace processes: SCRs 1889 (2013), 2122 (2013), 2242 (2015), and 2493 (2019). Post-conflict peacebuilding contexts generate opportunities for women advocates to demand the presence of women in decision-making spaces and the wider public sphere,4 which contributes to women’s empowerment.5 Research on the correlation between the end of war and women’s increased political participation further illustrates this point. Tripp’s 2015 research6 on Africa and Berry’s 2018 research7 in Rwanda and Bosnia-Herzegovina have found that conflict resolution in these contexts have had positive effects on women’s political agency.
Topic:: Governance, Women, Participation, Post-Conflict, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Colombia, Nepal, South Sudan, and Global Focus

21. Worsening Risk of Mass Atrocities in South Sudan

Author:: Sarah McIntosh and Naomi Kikoler
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:: The United States Holocaust Memorial Museum's Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide published a report in February 2022 detailing the immediate risk of mass atrocities facing South Sudanese civilians.1 Since then, threats facing South Sudanese civilians have worsened and the government of South Sudan has failed to take action to mitigate these threats.2 Attacks against civilians have continued, leading thousands of people to be killed, injured, or displaced. Experts told Simon-Skjodt Center staff that they feared the world's youngest country would slip back into full scale war. This stems from both the highly complex conflict dynamics throughout the country with different geographic regions experiencing unique forms of violence from distinct perpetrators as well as the South Sudanese government's recent decision to delay for two years the deadline for implementing the peace agreement and for conducting national elections. Their actions suggest that those most responsible for past abuses may intend to cling to power and evade justice for their actions. The need to take decisive preventative and protective action is urgent.
Topic:: Impunity, Civilians, Atrocities, Armed Conflict, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:: Africa and South Sudan

22. On Designating the 14-Mile Area in the Cooperation Agreement: Missteps and Implications for Peace in South Sudan

Author:: Garang Yach James, James Alic Garang, and Joseph Geng Akech
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: Using a literature-based review methodology, this paper examines the questions, fairness, and implications relating to the inclusion of the 14-Mile Area in the September 2012 Cooperation Agreement signed between Sudan and South Sudan. It finds that previous colonial arrangements and the subsequent inclusion of this area under the rubric of disputed territories muddied the waters, thus giving a wrong impression to the public about what was originally unintended and sanctioned. Second, it finds that the Malual Dinka community remains justified in arguing that the 14-Mile Area is undisputed. The fact that Arab nomads from Sudan have been permitted to enjoy access to the grazing and cross-border trade benefits does not confer right of ownership over the strip. Seen from this context, the article examines the implications of including the 14-Mile Area in the Cooperation Agreement and arrives at policy recommendations designed to ensure community resource management and investments in the area. Thus, the article advances not just community-to-community peace, but also regional peace and stability. It concludes by beseeching the governments of both Sudan and South Sudan to exclude the 14-Mile Area from any discussion of disputed areas of international borders. The article advocates that local communities should be given an unencumbered opportunity to manage issues of access to grazing areas by Sudanese nomads based on community-to-community negotiations, which have always been the tradition.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Territorial Disputes, and Peace
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, and South Sudan

23. Transferring Policy: The African Union’s Protection of Civilians Policy in Peacekeeping Missions in Somalia and South Sudan

Author:: Andrew E. Yaw Tchie and Liezelle Kumalo
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: The African Union’s (AU’s) doctrine underlying Peace Support Operations (PSOs) highlights the fact that the AU should take the lead in providing political direction for all AU PSOs. This includes mainstreaming the standards and operating procedures applicable to the Protection of Civilians (PoC). The PoC guidelines mandate the AU to support and complement the efforts of the host state by enhancing its capacity to secure civilians and prevent abuse against them. The guidelines have allowed the AU to develop and grow its institutional capacity and emerge as the continent’s leading institution. It provides fragile member states with technical support through African led and AU-mandated missions (crafting the concept of operations, training and implementation and procedures for peace operations). However, little is known about how the AU transfers its PoC policy to member states during peacekeeping missions. This paper assesses the institutional capacity of the AU and its ability to influence specific national PoC policies and approaches through AU PSO and United Nations Peacekeeping Operations (UN PKOs). The paper highlights that although the AU has made progress in PoC policy, it has not been implemented effectively and practically in South Sudan and Somalia, despite being a significant priority for the organisation.
Topic:: Peacekeeping, Civilians, and African Union
Political Geography:: Africa, Somalia, and South Sudan

24. The Periphery Cannot Hold: Upper Nile since the Signing of the R-ARCSS

Author:: Joshua Craze
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: Upper Nile is in chaos. A once durable alliance between the national government in Juba and the Padang Dinka in Malakal has given way to a much more uncertain situation, in which the regime of South Sudanese President Salva Kiir sets feuding elites against each other. Disorder has proved an effective tool of rule. In Upper Nile, Kiir's regime has successfully peeled off Eastern Nuer commanders once loyal to Riek Machar's Sudan People's Liberation Army in Opposition (SPLA-IO). Following a brutal dry season campaign against the SPLA-IO waged by these commanders, Machar's opposition suffered an almost total collapse of support in Upper Nile. The rump of the SPLA-IO fighting forces had already split from Machar in 2021, and formed the Kitgwang faction, which hoped to acquire materiel and money in Khartoum to fund a renewed war. However, thanks to a regional realignment that means Sudan and South Sudan are allies, the Kitgwang found no succour in Khartoum, and was easily divided by Kiir's regime. The current fighting in Upper Nile is the fallout from the two parts of the Kitgwang being set against each other by the government. Clashes have displaced more than 10,000 people, and taken on a worryingly ethnic dimension that Kiir's regime will struggle to control.
Topic:: Politics, Armed Forces, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, South Sudan, and Upper Nile

25. 'And Everything Became War': Warrap State since the Signing of the R-ARCSS

Author:: Joshua Craze
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: In Warrap state, home to South Sudanese President Salva Kiir and much of the country's political and military elite, many hoped that the signing of a peace agreement in 2018 would bring an end to the violence that had scarred their country for the previous five years. Instead, in Warrap, violence intensified, and pitted communities against each other in increasingly brutal tit-for-tat attacks that targeted women, children, homes, and the very capacities of communities to sustain life. At the war's end, everything became war. Such clashes are often dismissed as 'inter-communal violence' delinked from the politics of the peace agreement. 'And Everything Became War': Warrap State since the Signing of the R-ARCSS—a report from the Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) project—demonstrates that the conflict raging in Warrap is instead deeply political, and a consequence of the way that Kiir's regime maintains power by setting feuding elites against each other. In Warrap, the South Sudanese state has suffered an almost total collapse in political legitimacy, and cattle-guards have emerged as the only actors on the ground with genuine community support that can resist the predatory state, even if they are also instrumentalized by it. 'And Everything Became War' is the first in-depth study of conflict dynamics in Warrap state since the beginning of the South Sudanese civil war. Based on extensive fieldwork, the report makes one central conclusion: as South Sudan enters its fourth year of ‘peace’, everything has become war, and the South Sudanese government is the war’s cause rather than the solution.
Topic:: Security, Politics, Treaties and Agreements, Conflict, and Elites
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, and South Sudan

26. The Civil-Military Relationship: From Theory to Practice in the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS)

Author:: Guilherme de Araujo Grigoli
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:: After nearly 20 years of civil war, in 2001, a peace agreement began to be negotiated between the central government of Sudan and the southern region. On January 9, 2005, the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) was ratified ending the Second Sudanese Civil War (1983-2005) (Oliveira and Silva 2011) and stipulating a referendum to determine the status of the Southern Sudan region. According to the UN, 98.83% of South Sudanese voters were in favor of independence in January 2011 (Salman 2011; UNMISS 2022). On July 8, 2011, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) adopted the resolution 1996 (UNSC 2011), creating the UNMISS. The objective was to consolidate peace and security and help create the necessary conditions for the development of the Republic of South Sudan, a country that was born with the worst social indicators in the world (Oliveira and Silva 2011). The mission aimed to help South Sudan to develop and build its democratic institutions to support the political-administrative structure of a new country.
Topic:: United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:: Africa and South Sudan

27. Lives at Risk: A study of girls dropping out of school in Juba, Rumbek and Pibor Counties, South Sudan

Author:: Lillian Rutandaro, Christine Lundambuyu Minalula, Rogers Otuta, and Manenji Mangundu
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: This study was undertaken by Oxfam in three South Sudanese counties as part of the SIDA-funded project 'Building Resilience through Gender and Conflict-Sensitive Approaches to Education, Skills Development, and Sustainable Livelihoods'. Its purpose was to shed light on why so many girls drop out of school. The research revealed that women and girls often lack decision-making power over their lives. Early or forced marriage, the abduction of girls, perceptions that education delays marriage – and that educated girls risk not finding husbands – all contribute to dropout rates. Additional challenges include a lack of adequate hygiene and sanitation facilities in schools, the distances learners need to travel, insecurity caused by communal violence, floods, food insecurity, and a heavy household work burden. The Government of South Sudan has in place laws and policies to address these issues, but they remain largely on paper and enforcement mechanisms are weak. The report analyses each of these factors in turn and presents recommendations for how the SIDA project can begin to address them in its future programming.
Topic:: Development, Education, Food, Conflict, Resilience, and Gender
Political Geography:: Africa and South Sudan

28. Survivor-Centred Justice for Gender-Based Violence in Complex Situations

Author:: The George Washington University The Global Women's Institute (GWI)
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: The Global Women's Institute (GWI), The George Washington University
Abstract:: The report Survivor-Centred Justice for Gender-Based Violence in Complex Situations is the result of new research conducted by IDLO, in partnership with the Global Women’s Institute at George Washington University, in six countries across the globe with the aim to identify approaches that centre survivors in all efforts to address gender-based violence (GBV) in complex situations. The report is informed by country case studies in Afghanistan, Honduras, Papua New Guinea, the Philippines, South Sudan, and Tunisia, to provide different perspectives of complexity in accessing justice and an analysis of diverse justice mechanisms dealing with GBV in situations of conflict, organized crime, climate disasters, and health emergencies, often intersecting with contexts of legal pluralism and political transition. Research findings show that, in order to be effective, measures and programmes aimed at ensuring access to justice for GBV survivors need to be responsive to women’s specific needs and vulnerabilities, as well as relevant to contextual challenges, while firmly anchored in international gender equality and human rights legal obligations.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Gender Based Violence, Justice, and Group Survival
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Africa, Middle East, Asia, Philippines, Central America, North America, Tunisia, Honduras, South Sudan, and Papua New Guinea

29. Gearing Up the Fight Against Impunity: Dedicated Investigative and Prosecutorial Capacities

Author:: Howard Varney and Katarzyna Zdunczky
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Abstract:: Holding perpetrators to account for the worst crimes known to humanity is one of the most important responsibilities of the community of nations in the 21st century. Notwithstanding the appalling nature of atrocity crimes, most perpetrators do not face justice. Specialized investigative and prosecutorial units, however, offer a ray of hope in this otherwise bleak justice landscape. Such units now operate in several countries around the world, including Argentina, Bosnia and Herzegovina, France, and Germany. This report, which was prepared jointly by ICTJ and the Foundation for Human Rights emerges from efforts to persuade the South African government to create a dedicated capacity to investigate and prosecute apartheid-era crimes, which have been long neglected. The report considers ways of gearing up the fight against impunity for serious international crimes and crimes of the past. It compares countries that leave atrocity crimes to the general administration of justice and those that adopt a specialized or dedicated approach. Specialized prosecutorial and investigative capacities are entities that focus exclusively on a particular category of crimes. While specialized units vary in size, structure, staffing, and operations, innovations such as prosecution-led investigations and bringing multi-disciplinary skills under one roof, make them considerably more effective than a generalized approach. The report provides a high-level audit of specialized units in 23 countries. It considers different models of domestic dedicated investigative and prosecutorial approaches and analyses their track records. Eleven case studies contrast countries with specialized units and those without. The report examines certain features that characterize specialized units, including their structure, composition, operations, and relationships with civil society and other entities. It analyzes the main challenges faced by the units including political dynamics, accessing evidence, and victim support. The report includes an overview of recent efforts by various specialized units to deliver criminal accountability for serious crimes committed in Syria. It concludes with recommendations on how to make specialized units more effective.
Topic:: International Law, Reform, Criminal Justice, Accountability, and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:: Uganda, Kenya, Africa, Europe, Middle East, Argentina, South America, Balkans, North Africa, Syria, Tunisia, Peru, and South Sudan

30. Immediate Risk of Mass Atrocities in South Sudan

Author:: Sarah McIntosh
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:: South Sudanese civilians face a risk of mass atrocities from government forces, armed militia, and opposition groups as political instability at the national level increases. Impunity has fostered a culture in which the commission of mass atrocity crimes is normalized. In the leadup to the 2023 elections, President Salva Kiir could lead violent crackdowns on organized gatherings in an effort to silence opposition. If government and opposition forces continue to unify into a single army, infighting could spill over into violence against and among civilian groups.
Topic:: Impunity, Violence, Atrocities, Opposition, and Instability
Political Geography:: Africa and South Sudan

31. R2P Monitor, Issue 63, 1 December 2022

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: R2P Monitor is a quarterly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 63 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Ukraine, Venezuela, Yemen, Mozambique, Nigeria, South Sudan and Sudan.
Topic:: International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), Norms, Atrocities, and International Humanitarian Law (IHL)
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, China, Sudan, Ukraine, Israel, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Mozambique, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Sahel, and Central African Republic

32. R2P Monitor, Issue 62, 1 September 2022

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: R2P Monitor is a quarterly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 62 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Ukraine, Venezuela, South Sudan, Yemen, Mozambique, Nigeria and Sudan.
Topic:: International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), Norms, Atrocities, and International Humanitarian Law (IHL)
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, China, Sudan, Ukraine, Israel, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Mozambique, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Sahel, and Central African Republic

33. R2P Monitor, Issue 61, 1 June 2022

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: R2P Monitor is a quarterly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 61 looks at developments in Cameroon, Central African Republic, Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Ukraine, Venezuela, Yemen, Afghanistan, Nigeria, South Sudan, Mozambique and Sudan.
Topic:: International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), Norms, Atrocities, and International Humanitarian Law (IHL)
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, China, Sudan, Ukraine, Israel, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Mozambique, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Sahel, and Central African Republic

34. R2P Monitor, Issue 60, 1 March 2022

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: R2P Monitor is a quarterly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 60 looks at developments in Cameroon, Central African Republic, Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Yemen, Afghanistan, Nigeria, South Sudan, Sudan and Venezuela.
Topic:: International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), Norms, Atrocities, and International Humanitarian Law (IHL)
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, China, Sudan, Israel, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Sahel, and Central African Republic

35. South Sudan’s Civil War: Violence, Insurgency and Failed Peacemaking

Author:: Stephen Arrno
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: This scholarly contribution by John Young offers an insightful critique and evaluation of liberal peacemaking and internationalism that has shaped post-cold war approaches to Africa. Examining South Sudan’s peacemaking process, the book refutes modernist and liberal peace epistemologies that deficiency in governance, underdevelopment, and failed peace are caused by internal factors. The main argument is that failed peacemaking in South Sudan, and previously in Sudan, has been induced by external forces. Organised into eight chapters, South Sudan’s Civil War: Violence, Insurgency and Failed Peacemaking outlines missed opportunities to resolving the Sudan conflict. The author takes the Turco-Egyptian empire that exposed South Sudan to a global economy of slavery as the starting point. The British who came to the Sudan to avenge the death of Gordon Pasha established an administration of ‘benign neglect’ that ended in the integration of South Sudan into an asymmetrical economy and polity. After two civil wars, the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) enabled the birth of an independent South Sudan, with the Agreement providing a trade-off between self-determination and democratic transformation (p. 10). The ruling party, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A), manufactured shallow political unity to promote the referendum for independence. All promises for an elaborate transformative agenda and successful post-independence transitional period were abandoned and neglected. The book criticises the liberation movement (SPLM) and the United States (US) administration for causing conflict. The central thesis of the book considers the independence of South Sudan as the root cause of conflict by endorsing the SPLM’s tyranny (p. 65).
Topic:: Civil War, Insurgency, Violence, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Africa and South Sudan

36. Rethinking South Sudan’s Path to Democracy

Author:: Andrew E. Yaw Tchie
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: One of the world’s youngest nations, South Sudan, broke out into civil war in December 2013. The civil war was marked by persistent disregard for the sanctity of civilians, especially women and children. At the time of the conflict, both the ruling Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in Government (SPLM-iG) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in Opposition (SPLM-iO) carried out massacres, which spread like wildfire across the country. Troops from both sides raped and slaughtered civilians, while government troops in Juba went door-to-door, seeking out opposition ethnic groups. After several failed regional mediation attempts, neighbouring states and international partners pressured President Salva Kiir, SPLM-iO leader, Riek Machar, and former detainees to sign the Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (ARCSS)[1] in August 2015 in Addis Ababa. The Agreement aimed to end the violent civil war and support comprehensive political reform during a three-year inclusive Transitional Government of National Unity (TGoNU). Additionally, the ARCSS provided a pathway to demilitarise many well-equipped militias and mechanisms for transitional justice and reparation, immediate measures to facilitate humanitarian access, and a programme to redress the economy. Nevertheless, just after the ARCSS was signed, Kiir, by presidential decree, ordered an increase in the number of states from 10 to 28.[2]
Topic:: Civil War, Government, Democracy, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, and South Sudan

37. Conflict and Crisis in South Sudan’s Equatoria

Author:: Alan Boswell
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: South Sudan’s civil war expanded into Equatoria, the country’s southernmost region, in 2016, forcing hundreds of thousands to flee into neighboring Uganda in what has been called Africa’s largest refugee exodus since the 1994 Rwandan genocide. Equatoria is now the last major hot spot in the civil war. If lasting peace is to come to South Sudan, writes Alan Boswell, it will require a peace effort that more fully reckons with the long-held grievances of Equatorians.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Civil War, Conflict, Crisis Management, and Peace
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, and South Sudan

38. Still Not There: Global Violent Deaths Scenarios, 2019–30

Author:: Gergely Hideg and Anna Alvazzi del Frate
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: The year 2018 was characterized by a decrease in lethal violence in several of the world’s hotspots, primarily due to a significant de-escalation of the armed conflicts in Iraq, Myanmar, South Sudan, and Syria. The homicide rate also decreased marginally due to population growth outpacing the nominal increase in killings between 2017 and 2018. These two trends jointly resulted in a modest positive change in the rate of violent deaths globally in 2018 which, at 7.8 violent deaths per 100,000 population, is at its lowest since 2012. Still Not There: Global Violent Deaths Scenarios, 2019–30, a Briefing Paper by the Survey’s Security Assessment in North Africa (SANA) project provides an updated trend analysis of global violent deaths and develops global-level scenarios for the years leading to 2030. Based on 2018 figures from the Small Arms Survey’s Global Violent Deaths (GVD) database, the paper also includes a specific analysis of developments in Northern Africa and the five nations of the G5 Sahel region. It finds that under a business-as-usual scenario, Northern Africa’s violent death rate would remain relatively stable by 2030. By contrast, under the same scenario, the fatality rate in the G5 Sahel region would increase significantly.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Conflict, Violence, and Death
Political Geography:: Africa, Iraq, Syria, Myanmar, and South Sudan

39. Seeing in the Dark: Real-Time Monitoring in Humanitarian Crises

Author:: Daniel Maxwell, Erin Lentz, Kamau Wanjohi, Daniel Molla, Matthew Day, Peter Hailey, Christopher Newton, and Anna Colom
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
Abstract:: Humanitarian information systems typically provide analysis to predict crisis, assess needs, direct program resources, and assess short- to medium-term effects of programs. But much of this information is “chunky”—a single estimate of “needs,” for example, can be expected to direct resources and programming for up to a full year (IASC 2020). A single early warning scenario might be expected to provide information about potential hazards and the exposure of population to the ill-effects of that hazard for three to four months. And almost by definition, early warning analyses are grounded in known and likely hazards, “population in need” (PIN) figures are based on the impacts of known shocks, and program resources are (or should be) allocated on the basis of known and projected PIN figures. There have long been questions about the timeliness of humanitarian information and especially about the extent to which information initiates appropriate and timely actions (Buchanan-Smith and Davies 1995; Bailey 2012; Lentz et al. 2020). And there have always been concerns that circumstances can change in shorter time periods than standard humanitarian analysis procedures can pick up, so interest in real-time monitoring (RTM) as a component of humanitarian information systems has increased for at least the past decade or so (FSNAU 2015).
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Humanitarian Aid, Famine, Food Security, Humanitarian Intervention, Conflict, and Nutrition
Political Geography:: Middle East, Yemen, Somalia, Malawi, South Sudan, and Africa

40. Toward a Viable Future for South Sudan

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Ten years after independence, South Sudan is faring poorly, beleaguered by political and socio-economic ills. The civil war’s two main antagonists have an uneasy peace, but others fight on. The country needs a reset rooted in power sharing and devolution of authority from the centre.
Topic:: Civil War, Political Power Sharing, Leadership, State Building, Independence, and Power
Political Geography:: Africa and South Sudan

41. Oil or Nothing: Dealing with South Sudan’s Bleeding Finances

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Upon South Sudan’s independence in 2011, many hoped the country’s oil wealth would help build the state and lift citizens out of poverty. Instead, politicians have shunted these revenues toward patronage and personal enrichment, feeding internal conflict. Transparency and accountability are badly needed.
Topic:: Oil, Poverty, Natural Resources, Accountability, and Transparency
Political Geography:: Africa and South Sudan

42. The pandemic will not stop us: The impact of COVID-19 on women’s peace activism in Colombia, the Philippines, South Sudan and Ukraine

Author:: Anne Marie Goetz
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Global Network of Women Peacebuilders (GNWP)
Abstract:: In Fall 2020, a rapid review of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on women peace activists in Colombia, South Sudan, the Philippines and Ukraine was conducted as part of an ongoing partnership between the Global Network of Women Peacebuilders (GNWP) and the New York University Center for Global Affairs (NYU CGA).1 The review found that the crisis has delayed implementation of peace agreements, in particular their gender provisions, shifted women’s peace advocacy to online spaces, impacted the membership composition of women’s peace groups, and diverted women’s organizational energies into humanitarian action to support community resilience.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Women, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Ukraine, Asia, Philippines, Colombia, South America, and South Sudan

43. Oil or Nothing: Dealing with South Sudan’s Bleeding Finances

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Upon South Sudan’s independence in 2011, many hoped the country’s oil wealth would help build the state and lift citizens out of poverty. Instead, politicians have shunted these revenues toward patronage and personal enrichment, feeding internal conflict. Transparency and accountability are badly needed.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, and Fossil Fuels
Political Geography:: Africa and South Sudan

44. Surface Tension: ‘Communal’ Violence and Elite Ambitions in South Sudan

Author:: Dan Watson
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: This report examines recent developments in South Sudan. The country has been experiencing a surge in ‘communal’ violence in the wake of a peace agreement signed in 2018, as the oil economy that has underpinned South Sudanese elite politics for over 15 years begins to disintegrate. This analysis re-interprets ‘communal’ violence in South Sudan, situating conflicts organized around ethnic or sub-ethnic lines in relation to national-level conflicts and inter-elite rivalries. These conflicts and elite dynamics are changing in response to the decarbonization of South Sudan, which is pushing elite ambitions away from the capital and back into provincial areas.
Topic:: Political Violence, Treaties and Agreements, Violence, and Elites
Political Geography:: Africa and South Sudan

45. A Climate Crisis in Africa: The Case of South Sudan

Author:: Nhial Tiitmamer
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: The African continent will be the most severely affected by climate change. Within Africa, the least developed and politically unstable nations like South Sudan are likely to be the hardest hit. What can be done, and who should be at the forefront of these changes?
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Environment, Infrastructure, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:: Africa and South Sudan

46. Compound Crisis Challenges Posed by Sudan’s Faltering Transition

Author:: Hamdy Abdul Rahman
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Two years after the overthrow of Sudan’s former president Omar al-Bashir, political transition is going through a critical and highly complicated phase. The government led by Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok is facing diverse challenges and hurdles, including widespread popular protests against fuel and consumer price increases, as well as resurgence of violence in Darfur region. If the situation remains unchanged, the country can fall in a fresh structural crisis that would prompt key figures of the ousted regime to make a comeback to power. It should be noted that over the past decade, prior to the fall of al-Bashir regime, had already faced huge challenges. The secession of South Sudan caused economic shocks to Sudan, while the civil war did not only damage the Sudanese economy, but also caused an increase in the number of refugees and internally displaced persons. This article seeks to discuss the country’s political transition and challenges facing it while also explaining what the interim government should do to bring the country back to the right track.
Topic:: Government, Displacement, Crisis Management, and Transition
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, and South Sudan

47. ‘Of Cattle and Conflict’ – Rethinking responses to pastoralism-related conflicts

Author:: Jos Meester
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Disputes over natural resources such as water and land among pastoralist groups and between mobile pastoralists and sedentary farmers have a long history and are turning increasingly violent. Competition over scarce natural resources is often put forward as the key driver of farmer-herder conflicts, disregarding the significant role governance is playing in conflict dynamics. Oversimplifications of the pastoralist-conflict equation and a lack of understanding of pastoralist systems and the way they are governed has led to inappropriate interventions further undermining pastoralism. Policies and interventions in response to pastoralism-related conflicts often do not take an integrated approach but are based on sectoral policies and are not conflict sensitive as they fail to take into account the political economy driving farmer-herder conflicts. Comparing the cases of Burkina Faso, Somalia and South Sudan, this paper analyses how pastoralist resource governance in combination with its specific underlying political economy differentially affects the dynamics of conflict around pastoral resources. Reflecting upon three agendas that inform the thinking about pastoralism as well as donor interventions – climate change, food security and governance – this paper provides some recommendations on how to take underlying political economy into account for sensible and effective programming.
Topic:: Agriculture, Natural Resources, Conflict, and Pastoralism
Political Geography:: Africa, Somalia, South Sudan, and Burkina Faso

48. R2P Monitor, Issue 55, 15 January 2021

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 55 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Cameroon, the Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Syria, Venezuela, Yemen, Central African Republic, Ethiopia, Mozambique, Myanmar (Burma), Nigeria and South Sudan.
Topic:: Crisis Management, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), Norms, Atrocities, and International Humanitarian Law (IHL)
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Africa, China, South Asia, Middle East, Asia, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, South America, Mozambique, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Sahel, and Central African Republic

49. R2P Monitor, Issue 56, 15 March 2021

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 56 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Cameroon, Central Sahel, China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Venezuela, Yemen, Central African Republic, Mozambique, Nigeria, South Sudan and Sudan.
Topic:: International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), Norms, Atrocities, and International Humanitarian Law (IHL)
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, China, Sudan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mozambique, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Sahel, and Central African Republic

50. R2P Monitor, Issue 57, 1 June 2021

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: R2P Monitor is a quarterly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 57 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Cameroon, Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Venezuela, Yemen, Mozambique, Central African Republic, Nigeria, South Sudan and Sudan.
Topic:: International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), Norms, Atrocities, and International Humanitarian Law (IHL)
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, China, Sudan, Israel, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Mozambique, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Sahel, and Central African Republic

51. R2P Monitor, Issue 58, 1 September 2021

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: R2P Monitor is a quarterly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 58 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Cameroon, Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Venezuela, Yemen, Central African Republic, Mozambique, Nigeria, South Sudan and Sudan.
Topic:: International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), Norms, Atrocities, and International Humanitarian Law (IHL)
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, China, Sudan, Israel, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Mozambique, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Sahel, and Central African Republic

52. R2P Monitor, Issue 59, 1 December 2021

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: R2P Monitor is a quarterly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 59 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Cameroon, Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Venezuela, Yemen, Sudan, Central African Republic, Mozambique, Nigeria and South Sudan.
Topic:: International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), Norms, Atrocities, and International Humanitarian Law (IHL)
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, China, Sudan, Israel, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Mozambique, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Sahel, and Central African Republic

53. The Center Is Not Holding: Analyzing South Sudan’s Social Cohesion Architecture in the Evolving Context of the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan

Author:: Tunji Namaiko
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Social Science Research Council
Abstract:: South Sudan is making major strides in peace consolidation and strengthening social cohesion since the signing of the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS) on 12 September 2018 in Addis Ababa. However, this paper argues that, despite these efforts, the center is not holding as inter-communal violence and a myriad of political and security dynamics are reversing many of these gains. As the conflict is protracted, peacebuilding remains a severe challenge while social cohesion remains weakened. The paper commences with a conceptual clarification of social cohesion before analyzing current evolving social cohesion dynamics and trends. This is followed by a discussion of the social cohesion programming challenges and consequently centers on Key Driving Factors (KDF) of conflict. Finally, the paper ends with an analysis of the drivers of conflict and peace and makes recommendations for strengthening social cohesion going forward.
Topic:: Security, Conflict, Violence, and Peace
Political Geography:: Africa and South Sudan

54. Edge of Survival

Author:: Peter J. Jacques
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: The interaction of food, energy, and water in North Africa is complex and building into a cascade of trouble. It is time to listen to the rural communities facing it on the frontline.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Water, Food, and Food Security
Political Geography:: North Africa, Morocco, and South Sudan

55. Towards Anticipatory Information Systems and Action: Notes on Early Warning and Early Action in East Africa

Author:: Daniel Maxwell and Peter Hailey
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
Abstract:: Despite humanitarian information being more available than ever, confusion persists as to what the information means, how to analyze it and turn it into actionable evidence, and how to ensure that evidence-based actions are actually undertaken on a timely basis. The key points of confusion and issues include: The difference between current status information, projections of populations in need, and early warning of threats or hazards. The difference between “hard” numbers (implying things that have already happened and can be counted) versus probabilistic information (implying things that are likely, but not certain, to happen). Linkages, or the lack thereof, between information systems and policy or programmatic action to anticipate, mitigate, or respond to a shock or worsening situation. Despite the fact that conflict is the most common factor driving extreme humanitarian crises, conflict analysis is the weakest part of early warning and information systems. The information systems do not (or minimally) engage with the communities at risk of shocks or resulting humanitarian crises. This paper reviews these and a number of additional issues with contemporary humanitarian information and early warning systems. While the cases focus on the East Africa region, they have broader implications as well.
Topic:: Disaster Relief, Humanitarian Aid, Food, Famine, Food Security, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Uganda, Kenya, North Africa, Ethiopia, Somalia, and South Sudan

56. Joint NGO Letter: The UN Human Rights Council should extend the mandate of the Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: A letter to the UN Human Rights Council from a number of NGOs (African Centre for Democracy and Human Rights Studies (ACDHRS); AfricanDefenders (Pan-African Human Rights Defenders Network); Cairo Institute for Human Rights Studies (CIHRS); Center for Reproductive Rights; Central African Network of Human Rights Defenders (REDHAC) CIVICUS; Community Empowerment for Progress Organization (CEPO) – South Sudan; Crown The Woman – South Sudan; DefendDefenders (the East and Horn of Africa Human Rights Defenders Project); Dominicans for Justice and Peace; Geneva for Human Rights / Genève pour les Droits de l’Homme; Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect (GCR2P); Human Rights Watch; International Commission of Jurists; FIDH (International Federation for Human Rights); International Movement Against All Forms of Discrimination and Racism (IMADR); International Service for Human Rights; Lawyers’ Rights Watch Canada; Legal Action Worldwide (LAW); National Alliance for Women Lawyers – South Sudan; Southern Africa Human Rights Defenders Network (SAHRDN); South Sudan Human Rights Defenders Network (SSHRDN); World Organisation Against Torture (OMCT)).
Topic:: Civil Society, Human Rights, United Nations, and NGOs
Political Geography:: Africa, United Nations, and South Sudan

57. R2P Monitor, Issue 49, 15 January 2020

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 49 looks at developments in Afghanistan, China, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Yemen, Cameroon, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali and Burkina Faso, Central African Republic, Iraq, Libya, Nigeria, South Sudan and Venezuela.
Topic:: Genocide, Human Rights, Conflict, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, China, Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Syria, Venezuela, Nigeria, Mali, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, and Burkina Faso

58. Resource-Backed Loans: Pitfalls and Potentialloan

Author:: David Mihalyi, Aisha Adam, and Jyhjong Hwang
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:: Through “resource-backed loans” (RBLs) countries access finance in exchange for, or collateralized by, future streams of income from their natural resource wealth. The authors of this report reviewed countries’ past experiences with RBLs across sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America from 2004 to 2018. They identify risks and opportunities RBLs pose and provide recommendations for countries considering taking RBLs in the future. The researchers identified 52 RBLs, 30 of which were taken by countries in in sub-Saharan Africa and 22 in Latin America. They are distributed across 14 countries in the two regions. Thirty-eight were lent by Chinese policy banks, seven are from commodity traders, four are from other Chinese state-owned enterprises, one is from Korea Exim, one is from Nigeria and one is from Russia's Rosneft. Forty-three of the loans are backed by oil, six by various minerals, two by cocoa, and one by tobacco. The total loan amount represented in the dataset is $164 billion, of which $66 billion went to Africa and $98 billion to Latin America.
Topic:: Natural Resources, Finance, Resource-Backed Loans, and Revenue Management
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, Brazil, South America, Venezuela, Nigeria, Angola, Ghana, Ecuador, Guinea, South Sudan, and Congo

59. After the Agreement: Why the Oversight of Peace Deals Succeeds or Fails

Author:: Aly Verjee
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Almost every modern peace agreement has established some type of institution to oversee implementation of the agreement’s provisions and monitor compliance. This report provides a careful examination of monitoring and oversight mechanisms set up in Sierra Leone, Indonesia, Sudan, and South Sudan between 1999 and 2015, and offers a series of key lessons for the design of future monitoring mechanisms.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements and Peace
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, Indonesia, Sierra Leone, and South Sudan

60. THE BIG LESSON OF PEACEKEEPING IN SUDAN: BEWARE OF HOST-COUNTRY OBSTRUCTION

Author:: Allard Duursma
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:: Every student that takes a class on United Nations (UN) peace operations will be told on day one that, along with impartiality and the non-use of force (except in self-defense and defense of the mandate), the consent of the conflict parties is one of the three fundamental principles of UN peacekeeping. But students will soon realize that the principle of consent is just that—a principle. Which is often compromised. Host-state consent was compromised during the deployment of UN peacekeepers in the Ivory Coast when Laurent Gbagbo was in power. UN peacekeepers in South Sudan also face the challenge of compromised host-state consent. Peacekeepers in the Democratic Republic of Congo have occasionally also been confronted by government actors trying to undermine their work. The withdrawal of host-state consent has even led to the termination of peacekeeping operations in Chad, Burundi, and Eritrea/Ethiopia.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, United Nations, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, South Sudan, and Ivory Coast

61. R2P Monitor, Issue 53, 15 September 2020

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 53 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Cameroon, China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali and Burkina Faso, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Yemen, Mozambique, Burundi, Central African Republic, Libya, Nigeria, South Sudan, Sudan and Venezuela.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Crisis Management, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, China, Sudan, Libya, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mozambique, Syria, Venezuela, Nigeria, Burundi, Mali, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Global Focus, and Burkina Faso

62. R2P Monitor, Issue 52, 15 July 2020

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 52 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Cameroon, China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali and Burkina Faso, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Yemen, Burundi, Central African Republic, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories, Libya, Nigeria, South Sudan and Venezuela.
Topic:: International Law, Conflict, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, China, Israel, Libya, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Syria, Venezuela, Nigeria, Burundi, Mali, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Global Focus, and Burkina Faso

63. R2P Monitor, Issue 51, 15 May 2020

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 51 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Cameroon, China, Mali and Burkina Faso, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Yemen, Burundi, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Central African Republic, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories, Libya, Nigeria, South Sudan and Venezuela.
Topic:: International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, China, Israel, Libya, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Syria, Venezuela, Nigeria, Burundi, Mali, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Global Focus, and Burkina Faso

64. All forgiven? South Sudan’s Transitional Government and the recurring risk of atrocities

Author:: Juliette Paauwe
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: After an almost seven-month delay, on 22 February South Sudan formed a new Transitional Government of National Unity (TGoNU), reuniting long-term rivals and former enemies President Salva Kiir and opposition leader Riek Machar. Although this constitutes a major breakthrough in the peace process, many questions remain regarding the impact this reunion will have on the long-term stability of South Sudan. Will the two leaders finally be able to resolve contentious issues while sharing power, or will the country return to violence and bloodshed?
Topic:: Transitional Justice, Atrocities, and Transition
Political Geography:: Africa and South Sudan

65. R2P Monitor, Issue 54, 15 November 2020

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 54 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Cameroon, China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali and Burkina Faso, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Venezuela, Yemen, Central African Republic, Ethiopia, Mozambique, Côte d’Ivoire, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories, Libya, Nagorno-Karabakh (Armenia/Azerbaijan), Nigeria and South Sudan.
Topic:: International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, China, Israel, Libya, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Mozambique, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Mali, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Côte d'Ivoire, Global Focus, Burkina Faso, and Nagorno-Karabakh

66. Protection through Policing: The Protective Role of UN Police in Peace Operations

Author:: Charles T. Hunt
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:: Since first deployed in 1960, United Nations police (UNPOL) have consistently been present in UN missions and have become increasingly important to achieving mission objectives. Since 1999, these objectives have often included the protection of civilians (POC), especially in places like the Central African Republic, Darfur, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali, and South Sudan. But despite its rise in prominence, the protective role of UNPOL is generally undervalued and regularly overlooked, and missions have tended to overly rely on militarized approaches to POC. This report examines the roles and responsibilities of UNPOL regarding POC. It outlines UNPOL’s contributions to POC and perceived comparative advantages, using examples of their role as compeller, deterrent, partner, and enabler. It also identifies and draws lessons from challenges to police protection efforts, including ambiguous mandates, policies, and guidance; poor coordination; problematic partnerships; and deficits in capabilities, capacities, and tools. Drawing on these lessons from past and current deployments, the report proposes recommendations for how member states, the Security Council, the UN Secretariat, and field missions can improve UNPOL’s efforts to protect civilians going forward. These recommendations include: Clarifying the role of UN police in POC through mandates, policies, guidance, and training to align the expectations of UN peace operations, the Secretariat, and member states for what UNPOL are expected to do; Involving all UN police in POC and giving them a voice in decision making and planning to infuse whole-of-mission POC efforts with policing perspectives and empower UNPOL to act more readily; Enhancing partnerships between UN police, host states, and other mission components to enable more responsive, better coordinated, and more comprehensive approaches to POC; and Providing more appropriate and more flexible capabilities, capacities, and tools to address critical capabilities gaps and adapt existing resources to better meet UNPOL’s latent potential for POC.
Topic:: Security, United Nations, Peacekeeping, Reform, Rule of Law, Civilians, and Police
Political Geography:: Africa, Darfur, Mali, South Sudan, Central African Republic, and Congo

67. What Next for UN Peace Operations? Global crisis management in a post-COVID-19 world

Author:: Richard Gowan and Louise Riis Andersen
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: With a global recession looming due to COVID-19,the large blue-helmet UN missions will be harder to sustain, both financially and politically. So the UN is learning to “think small”. Recommendations ■ The Secretariat should work with member states to improve the UN’s mechanisms for deploying bespoke, case-specific peace operations and SPMs at short notice. ■ Member states should stand ready to deploy small numbers of military and police personnel to serve in more flexible forms of UN operations and to offer specialized expertise and training as requested. ■ Member states should pay their respective share of the UN peacekeeping budget on time and increase their voluntary contributions.
Topic:: United Nations, Peacekeeping, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa, Mali, and South Sudan

68. Four Conflict Prevention Opportunities for South Africa’s Foreign Policy

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: In the years right after apartheid fell, South Africa was a leader in continental diplomacy, brokering peace accords and bolstering multilateral institutions. Its role subsequently diminished, but today it is well placed to make a positive difference in several trouble spots. What’s new? Midway through its term on the UN Security Council, and having just become chair of the African Union, the South African government led by Cyril Ramaphosa has a strong platform from which to reassert Pretoria’s continental leadership in efforts to mitigate Africa’s violent conflicts. Why does it matter? As Africa deals with more challenges to regional stability than it can readily handle, South Africa’s re-emergence as a leader in conflict prevention would be good for Pretoria, good for a continent that continues to prefer African solutions to African problems and good for the people of conflict-affected areas. What should be done? South Africa should enhance its focus on Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo and South Sudan, which lie at the intersection of national, AU and UN priorities. Pretoria should also redouble efforts to steer neighbouring Zimbabwe away from crisis.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and Negotiation
Political Geography:: Africa, South Africa, Zimbabwe, South Sudan, and Democratic Republic of Congo

69. The Accountability System for the Protection of Civilians in UN Peacekeeping

Author:: Namie Di Razza
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:: Over the last two decades, UN peacekeeping operations have striven to protect civilians from physical violence. The protection of civilians (POC) is now based on a clear normative and policy framework, and its practical implementation relies on a number of innovative tools, tailored and multidimensional approaches, and the more proactive posture of peacekeepers. On a number of occasions, however, UN missions have failed to prevent or respond to threats despite being aware of the risk, receiving adequate warning of an attack, or being in the proximity when abuses were committed. Numerous reports and investigations into these incidents have highlighted shortcomings in performance and called for more accountability. Despite institutional ambitions, however, there is still limited accountability for the actors involved in protecting civilians. To help address this challenge, IPI undertook a project to map how existing accountability mechanisms in the UN could be applied to peacekeeping missions with POC mandates. Through a combination of desk research and key informant interviews, IPI developed a set of tools to help guide the UN and its member states in building a robust, multi-actor, multilayer “system of accountability for POC.”
Topic:: United Nations, Peacekeeping, Accountability, and Civilians
Political Geography:: Africa, Darfur, Democratic Republic of the Congo, South Sudan, Central African Republic, and Global Focus

70. A Missing Mandate? Casualty Recording in UN Peace Operations

Author:: Hana Salama
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: UN peace operations are uniquely positioned—and mandated—to collect and monitor data on conflict-related casualties. Through the collection and analysis of this type of data, UN missions can both improve the effectiveness of peace operations and assist the international effort among UN Member States to achieve progress towards Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 16—particularly Indicator 16.1.2 on conflict-related deaths. This Briefing Paper by the Small Arms Survey’s Security Assessment in North Africa (SANA) and Human Security Baseline Assessment in Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) projects examines the current capacity of UN peace operations as data providers. A Missing Mandate? Casualty Recording in UN Peace Operations reviews current practices of data collection in UN operational settings and provides case studies through three UN peace operations in the DRC, Mali, and South Sudan. The paper, authored by casualty recording expert Hana Salama, concludes that UN missions already do much of the work required but lack the effectual mandate, resources, and coordination to ensure that the information is useful for the purpose of the SDGs.
Topic:: Security, United Nations, Peacekeeping, Sustainable Development Goals, Conflict, Peace, and Human Security
Political Geography:: Africa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali, and South Sudan

71. Hollow Promises: The Risks of Military Integration in Western Equatoria

Author:: Flora McCrone
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: In 2018, the Government of the Republic of South Sudan (GoSS), the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO), and the South Sudan Opposition Alliance (SSOA) signed the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS). As part of the transitional security arrangements within the R-ARCSS framework, all warring parties agreed to assemble combatants in designated cantonment sites to facilitate their training, and later, integration into a new ‘unity’ army or other national security services. A Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) project examines the process of cantonment and the challenges in operationalizing the Agreement. Hollow Promises: The Risks of Military Integration in Western Equatoria describes the transitional security arrangements of the R-ARCSS and the scope of force sizes to be cantoned. It follows with a case study of Western Equatoria’s Arrow Boys, demonstrating how their involvement exposes some of the fault-lines within the broader integration process. The Briefing Paper finds that the implementation of the R-ARCSS is leading to deteriorating local security, community cohesion, and stability.
Topic:: Security, Treaties and Agreements, Military Affairs, and Political stability
Political Geography:: Africa and South Sudan

72. Strategic Peacebuilding: The Role of Civilians and Civil Society in Preventing Mass Atrocities in South Sudan

Author:: Nyathon H. Mai
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:: Conflict in South Sudan during the past seven years has led to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of South Sudanese civilians and the displacement of millions more. Large-scale, systematic violence against civilian populations has occurred throughout South Sudan as a result of national-scale disputes, locallevel conflicts, and a combination of the two. This paper examines civilian-led action in three cases: (1) the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) leadership crisis in 2013, (2) a military standoff between President Salva Kiir and former Chief of General Staffs Paul Malong in 2017, and (3) conflicts between local security forces in Wau from 2016 to 2017. Despite the severity of the violence, civilian communities and civil society organizations in South Sudan have used a range of strategies—including early warning, public advocacy, and mediation—to prevent mass atrocities and mitigate their escalation. These actors sometimes blurred the lines between civilian and fighter, as in the case of self-protection groups in the northwestern Wau region. Legal restrictions and the threat of harassment by South Sudanese security forces also placed significant constraints on the ability of both national-level and local-level civil society organizations to act against potential and ongoing violence. In some circumstances, civilian-led efforts successfully resolved conflicts and constrained violence; in others, violence persisted despite civilian actions.
Topic:: Civil Society, Conflict, Civilians, Atrocities, and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:: Africa and South Sudan

73. Silencing the Guns Requires a Multi-Pronged Approach

Author:: Ramtane Lamamra
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: To translate the vision of the 2013 Solemn Declaration into action, the Master Roadmap of Practical Steps to Silence the Guns by Year 2020 (AUMR) was adopted by the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council in 2016. The AUMR was to be executed by the AU Commission in collaboration with key stakeholders, including regional economic communities; economic, social and cultural communities; organs of the AU; the United Nations (UN) and civil society organisations. Speaking to this endeavour, the 33rd AU Ordinary Summit took stock of achievements and challenges encountered in implementing this flagship project of Silencing the Guns by 2020. It further sought to devise a more robust action plan, informed by the Monitoring and Evaluation Mechanism of the AUMR, for a peaceful and prosperous Africa. Conflicts have robbed Africa of over US$100 billion since the end of the Cold War in 1991. The continent has unfortunately witnessed some of the world’s biggest fatalities, food and humanitarian crises and the erosion of social cohesion, coupled with the total breakdown of economies and decimation of the environmental and political landscape. It is worrisome to see countries such as South Sudan, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Somalia, Mali and Libya continuing to witness persistent levels of armed conflict, and the decolonisation conflict in Western Sahara is remaining unresolved for so long. The threat posed by COVID-19 has considerably slowed the momentum of the silencing the guns agenda and has abruptly added to the existing challenges, slowing down the attainment of peace and development
Topic:: Security, Civil Society, International Cooperation, Peace, African Union, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa, Libya, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Somalia, Mali, South Sudan, and Central African Republic

74. The African Union, regional economic communities and regional mechanisms and United Nations: Leveraging the Triangular Partnership to Silence the Guns in Africa

Author:: A. Sarjoh Bah
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: The partnership is underpinned by the twin principles of subsidiarity and complementarity.2 Although the RECs/RMs are not uniform entities, it is well established that neither the AU nor the UN can undertake a successful peacemaking venture without the active involvement of the dominant REC/RM in a particular sub-region. For example, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development’s (IGAD) pivotal role in the mediation efforts that led to the signing of the Revitalised-Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS) is the most recent demonstration of this trend.3 Similar examples exist in West, Central and southern Africa, where the RECs/RMs in these sub-regions continue to serve as anchors for security and stability.
Topic:: Security, Development, Regional Cooperation, Political stability, Conflict, Peace, and African Union
Political Geography:: Africa and South Sudan

75. Research Workshop on the Role of Civilians in Preventing and Mitigating Mass Atrocities

Author:: Jamie Wise
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:: On June 13-14, 2019, the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide at the US Holocaust Memorial Museum convened a workshop with case study research partners and other scholars to discuss the Center’s ongoing project on the role of civilians in preventing and mitigating mass atrocities. This rapporteur’s report summarizes major observations raised on the first day of the workshop, during which all participants made contributions.
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid, Civilians, Donors, and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:: Sri Lanka, Democratic Republic of the Congo, South Sudan, and Global Focus

76. DO REFUGEE ENCAMPMENT POLICIES CONTRIBUTE TO COMMUNAL CONFLICT?

Author:: Kerstin Fisk
Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:: Placing refugees in formal encampments remains the preferred policy solution for most host states in the developing world, where about 90 percent of the world’s forcibly displaced are settled. Although UNHCR and other aid agencies increasingly call for alternatives to camps, host states’ preference for camp settlement is driven by perceptions that refugees are threats to national security, and that encampment policies minimize their economic and security impacts on host populations. Encampment can, for instance, increase tensions between refugees when camps concentrate refugee populations from different sides of the same conflict—such as Sudanese Dinka and Sudanese Nuer—together. Tensions between local hosts and refugees are likely to worsen when camps become militarized and are targeted for forced recruitment by militants—host populations often blame refugees for the militants’ infiltration. Refugee encampment has also been shown to worsen host-refugee relations by contributing to environmental degradation in areas surrounding camps.
Topic:: Refugees, Displacement, Conflict, Settlements, and UNHCR
Political Geography:: Africa and South Sudan

77. The Religious Landscape in South Sudan: Challenges and Opportunities for Engagement

Author:: Jacqueline Wilson
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Since the beginning of South Sudan's civil war in 2013, the country's religious actors have sought to play an active role in turning the tide from war and violence to peace and reconciliation. Drawing on interviews, focus groups, and consultations, this report maps the religious landscape of South Sudan and showcases the legitimate and influential religious actors and institutions, highlights challenges impeding their peace work, and provides recommendations for policymakers and practitioners to better engage with religious actors for peace.
Topic:: Civil War, Religion, War, Violence, and Peace
Political Geography:: Africa and South Sudan

78. Ceasefire Monitoring in South Sudan 2014–2019: “A Very Ugly Mission”

Author:: Aly Verjee
Publication Date:: 08-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: More than five years after South Sudan’s first ceasefire agreement, ceasefire monitors are still on the ground. The hope was that their work would help overcome the mistrust between rival factions, halt ongoing violence, and deter further violations. Drawing on interviews with monitors, combatants, politicians, civil society representatives, diplomats, peacekeepers, and others, this report examines the history of ceasefire monitoring in South Sudan and offers recommendations for donors supporting future monitoring processes in South Sudan and elsewhere.
Topic:: Peacekeeping, Conflict, Violence, Peace, and Ceasefire
Political Geography:: Africa and South Sudan

79. Political Breakdown in South Sudan: United Nations and a New Challenge to Human Security (2014 - 2018)

Author:: Daniel Mendes Aguiar Santos
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:: This article aims to examine the context of the political breakdown in South Sudan, highlighting its effects on human security in the country, and to analyze the response of the United Nations, with a focus on civilian protection, in the period 2014-2018. In this light, the theoretical hypothesis was that “within the framework of a United Nations peace mission, the implementation of a strategy for the protection of civilians corroborates human security in the region of crisis and/or conflict.” In this effort, after this introduction, the methodological considerations about the investigation are presented, followed by a theoretical and conceptual frame that fits the analysis. Subsequently, is the political breakdown in South Sudan, highlighting its effects on human security and, following the central question, the United Nations response focused on the protection of civilians. Finally, we present the conclusive aspects, illuminated by the theoretical hypothesis.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Security, International Cooperation, Politics, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Africa and South Sudan

80. Highlights on the resilience and vulnerability of populations affected by conflict

Author:: Helen Young, Elizabeth Stites, and Anastasia Marshak
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
Abstract:: This is the third in a series of three briefing papers that form part of the Mind the Gap: Bridging the Research, Policy, and Practice Divide to Enhance Livelihood Resilience in Conflict Settings project. The first two briefing papers accompany regional case-study reports on Chad, South Sudan and the Sudan, and on Uganda that challenge many long-held assumptions about nutrition and livelihoods in countries struggling to recover from conflict, violence and fragility. FAO reviewed these regional case-studies on resilience and vulnerability at a two-day high-level workshop in Rome in November 2018. This brief summarizes the report highlights on the resilience and vulnerability of populations affected by conflict, including insights from the workshop participants and some implications for policies, programs, and future research.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Food, Famine, Food Security, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Uganda, Africa, Sudan, North Africa, Chad, and South Sudan

81. Twin peaks: the seasonality of acute malnutrition, conflict, and environmental factors

Author:: Helen Young, Anastasia Marshak, and Aishwarya Venkat
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
Abstract:: This report highlights major new findings on the seasonal patterns of child malnutrition and their links to climate variability, conflict, and livelihood systems in Chad, Sudan, and South Sudan. Contrary to long-held assumptions about acute malnutrition escalating in the lean season, our data show that there are two peaks of acute malnutrition. The first and larger peak occurs at the end of the dry season, followed later by a second, smaller peak after the lean season. Our analysis demonstrates a significant relationship between acute malnutrition, conflict trends, and environmental factors. The findings underscore the importance of environmental variability and the persistence of climate, conflict, and other shocks in relation to livelihood resilience and transformation over time. The findings raise specific considerations for data collection, future research, programming, and policy, which are detailed in the report and briefing paper.
Topic:: Food, Children, Food Security, Youth, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, Chad, and South Sudan

82. Views from the Ground: Perspectives on Localization in the Horn of Africa

Author:: Kimberly Howe, Jairo Munive, and Katja Rosenstock
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
Abstract:: “As local as possible, as international as necessary” has become the slogan of one of the latest trends in humanitarianism—localization. Since the World Humanitarian Summit of 2016, the localization agenda has been gaining momentum. While there are no internationally agreed upon definitions of localization, it generally refers to putting local actors at the center of the humanitarian system. While humanitarian actors assume that there are benefits to a localized response over those spearheaded by international agencies, it has not been well studied. Most reports are based on anecdotal evidence, describe lessons learned through the study individual projects, or are aspirational and normative in tone. Across publications, there is insufficient empirical evidence to determine the best way for the international humanitarian architecture to support local actors. The authors place the voices of local actors at the center of this research project, acknowledging that most literature favors international actors when studying localization of humanitarian action. This study interrogates the assumptions that underpin a localized response and identifies the factors that enable and hinder local actors in providing a high-quality, principled, and effective response in three countries in the Horn of Africa: Kenya, Somalia/Somaliland, and South Sudan.
Topic:: Disaster Relief, Humanitarian Aid, and NGOs
Political Geography:: Kenya, Africa, Somalia, and South Sudan

83. The Currency of Connections: Why local support systems are integral to helping people recover in South Sudan

Author:: Alex Humphrey, Vaidehi Krishnan, and Roxani Krystalli
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
Abstract:: The purpose of this report is to give aid actors insights into localized social protection and support systems in South Sudan and the ways in which humanitarian aid, including cash transfer programming, can both complement and disrupt these systems. In protracted crises in which formal governance structures are weak to nonexistent, people depend heavily on local systems—both social and economic—to get by, often more than they depend on external aid. Households and economic actors may rely on their friends, neighbors and extended families for food, access to economic opportunities, and negotiation of safe passage when fleeing from conflict. In addition to social support networks, markets have been shown to play a critical role in enabling crisis-affected populations to cope with and recover from conflict, displacement and disasters. This report describes variations in households’ social connectedness and their related abilities to benefit from local support systems. Additionally, it considers the different obligations that households and economic actors have to support others in their communities and whether such support is reciprocal. Findings are based on 67 qualitative semi-structured interviews conducted in October 2018 in Panyijar County (southern Unity State). Respondents included a diverse sample of households, economic actors and key informants.
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid and Pastoralism
Political Geography:: Africa and South Sudan

84. Shifting Borders: Africa’s Displacement Crisis and Its Security Implications

Author:: Wendy Williams
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:: Recent years have seen record numbers of Africans forcibly displaced from their homes. The most recent figure of 25 million people displaced is a 500-percent increase from 2005. While much attention focuses on economic migrants who are trying to cross into Europe, 95 percent of those who are displaced remain on the continent. Two-thirds of these are displaced within their home countries. In short, the reality faced is more accurately characterized as an African displacement, rather than a European migrant, crisis. This paper explores the drivers of population displacement in Africa, security ramifications, and priorities for reversing this destabilizing trend.
Topic:: Migration, Diaspora, Political stability, and Displacement
Political Geography:: Africa, North Uganda, South Sudan, and Sahara

85. Envisioning a Stable South Sudan

Author:: Luka Biong Deng Kuol, Majak D'Agoôt, Remember Miamingi, Lauren Hutton, Phillip Kasaija Apuuli, Luol Deim Kuol, and Godfrey Musila
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:: The internal conflict and resulting humanitarian crisis embroiling South Sudan since December 2013 have exposed the country’s fragility. A weak national identity, ethnically based violence, a legacy of violent conflict resolution, personalized and patronage-based politics, weak institutional checks on the abuse of power, and the absence of encompassing leadership, among other factors, all pose obstacles to peacebuilding. As a result, envisaging a stable South Sudan has become increasingly difficult for many South Sudanese and external observers. With regional and international diplomacy rightly focused on negotiating an immediate end to hostilities, the Africa Center for Strategic Studies has asked a selection of South Sudanese and international scholars, security practitioners, and civil society leaders to share their visions of the strategic issues South Sudan must address if it is to make a transition from its current state of dissimilation to a more stable reality. These visions, taken individually and collectively, are intended to help sketch out some of the priorities and prerequisites for transforming today’s highly fragmented security landscape in South Sudan to one in which its citizens are safe in their own country and are protected from external threats.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Nationalism, Regional Cooperation, United Nations, and Humanitarian Intervention
Political Geography:: Africa, East Africa, South Sudan, and Central Africa

86. Africa Lags in Protections against Human Trafficking

Author:: Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:: 07-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:: Trafficking in persons has become a multibillion dollar business in Africa that African governments have been slow to address.
Topic:: Migration, United Nations, Children, Women, Slavery, and Human Trafficking
Political Geography:: Africa, Ethiopia, Egypt, Burundi, Eritrea, South Sudan, Central African Republic, and Mediterranean

87. Africa’s Unresolved Conflicts a Key Driver of Food Insecurity

Author:: Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:: Conflict is a central factor in the geography of Africa’s food insecurity. The acuteness of this insecurity deepens the longer a conflict continues.
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid, United Nations, Food Security, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, Nigeria, Burundi, South Sudan, Cameroon, and Central African Republic

88. R2P Monitor, Issue 48, 15 November 2019

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 48 looks at developments in Afghanistan, China, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Yemen, Cameroon, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali and Burkina Faso, Burundi, Central African Republic, Libya, South Sudan and Venezuela.
Topic:: Genocide, Human Rights, International Law, Conflict, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, China, Libya, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Syria, Venezuela, Burundi, Mali, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, and Burkina Faso

89. R2P Monitor, Issue 46, 15 July 2019

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 07-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the Responsibility to Protect lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 46 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Yemen, Cameroon, Mali and Burkina Faso, Sudan, Central African Republic, Libya, Nigeria, South Sudan and Venezuela.
Topic:: Genocide, Human Rights, International Law, United Nations, Ethnic Cleansing, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Sudan, Libya, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Syria, Venezuela, Nigeria, Mali, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, and Burkina Faso

90. R2P Monitor, Issue 45, 15 May 2019

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the Responsibility to Protect lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 45 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Yemen, Cameroon, Nigeria, Burundi, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories, Mali, South Sudan and Venezuela.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Human Rights, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Israel, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Syria, Venezuela, Nigeria, Burundi, Mali, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, and Global Focus

91. R2P and Outcomes of the Human Rights Council’s 40th Session

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: The 40th regular session of the Human Rights Council (HRC) was held in Geneva between 25 February and 22 March 2019. As the primary international human rights body, the Human Rights Council has the capacity to prevent and respond to mass atrocity crimes, as systematic violations and abuses of human rights can be potential indicators of genocide, war crimes, crimes against humanity or ethnic cleansing. The summary below highlights major outcomes and relevant dialogues from the 40th session as they relate to the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) populations from such crimes. As part of the session, the Netherlands delivered a statement on behalf of members of the Group of Friends of R2P.
Topic:: International Law, State Violence, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), Atrocities, and UN Human Rights Council (HRC)
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, North Korea, Palestine, United Nations, Nicaragua, Syria, Myanmar, South Sudan, and Global Focus

92. R2P Monitor, Issue 44, 15 March 2019

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the Responsibility to Protect lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 44 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Yemen, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Burundi, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories, Nigeria, South Sudan, Sudan and Venezuela.
Topic:: Human Rights, International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Sudan, Israel, Yemen, Palestine, Syria, Venezuela, Nigeria, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, and Global Focus

93. R2P Monitor, Issue 43, 15 January 2019

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the Responsibility to Protect lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 43 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Central African Republic, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Yemen, Cameroon, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories, Nicaragua, Nigeria, South Sudan and Venezuela.
Topic:: Human Rights, International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Sudan, Israel, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Nicaragua, Syria, Nigeria, Burundi, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, and Global Focus

94. Record Number of Forcibly Displaced Africans Likely to Grow

Author:: Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:: 07-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:: With Africa's population expected to double by 2050, the rapid increase in the number of forcibly displaced Africans of the past decade will continue to expand unless key drivers are reversed.
Topic:: Migration, United Nations, Diaspora, and Displacement
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, Somalia, Eritrea, South Sudan, and Central African Republic

95. Timeline of South Sudan Peace Agreements and Violence

Author:: Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:: Despite multiple ceasefires and peace agreements signed since the conflict began in 2013, the humanitarian costs to the citizens of South Sudan continue to grow.
Topic:: Civil War, Humanitarian Intervention, Negotiation, Violence, and Peace
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, East Africa, South Sudan, and Central Africa

96. Climate Change, Carbon Politics, and Kenya’s Democratic Future

Author:: Jacqueline M. Klopp and Abdullahi Boru Halakhe
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:: Carbon politics is playing out in oil-producing African countries with lethal consequences. Countries like Nigeria, Angola, Sudan, and South Sudan are conflict-ridden and economically unequal, and, as climate change concerns clash with new fossil fuel-driven development efforts, carbon politics is taking on ever-greater significance. While the scramble for fossil fuels could increase authoritarianism as it spreads in East Africa, an ecologically-driven imperative to address climate change could reinforce stronger democratic institutions.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Oil, Natural Resources, and Democracy
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, Nigeria, Angola, East Africa, and South Sudan

97. Theories of Democratic Change Phase III: Transitions from Conflict

Author:: Jennifer R. Dresden, Thomas E. Flores, and Irfan Nooruddin
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute of International Education (IIE)
Abstract:: The notion that robust democracy and violent conflict are linked is commonplace. Many observers of international politics attribute violent conflict in contexts as diverse as Myanmar and Syria to failures of democracy. Conversely, most agree that continuing political violence undermines any effort to build strong democratic institutions in Libya or South Sudan. As a matter of policy, democratization has often been promoted not only as an end in itself but as a means toward building peace in societies scarred by violence. Development professionals tackle these challenges daily, confronting vicious cycles of political violence and weak democratic institutions. At the same time, scholars have dedicated intense scrutiny to these questions, often finding that the interrelationships between conflict and democracy belie easy categorization. This report, the third in a series on democratic theories of change, critically engages with this literature to ask three questions: Under what circumstances do democratic practice or movement toward democracy quell (or exacerbate) the risk of different kinds of violent conflict? Under what circumstances do the risk and experience of violent conflict undermine democratic practice? How can external interventions mitigate risks and capitalize on opportunities inherent in transitions to democracy and peace? To answer these questions, a research team at George Mason University and Georgetown University spent eight months compiling, organizing, and evaluating the academic literature connecting democratic practice and violent conflict, which spans the fields of political science, economics, peace studies, anthropology, sociology, and psychology. This work was funded by USAID’s Center of Excellence on Democracy, Human Rights, and Governance (the DRG Center), under the Institute of International Education’s (IIE’s) Democracy Fellows and Grants Program. Beginning in May 2018, the authors organized a team of three research assistants, who read and summarized more than 600 journal articles, books, reports, and newspaper articles. The resulting White Paper was the subject of an August 2018 workshop with representatives from USAID and an interdisciplinary group of eight scholars with expertise in conflict and democracy. Based on their feedback, the authors developed a new Theories of Change Matrix and White Paper in October 2018. This draft received further written feedback from USAID and another three scholars. The core team then revised the report again to produce this final draft. This report’s approach to the literature differs from past phases of the Theories of Democratic Change project. While past reports detailed the hypothesized causes of democratic backsliding (Phase I) and democratic transitions (Phase II), this report focuses on the reciprocal relationship between democratic practice and conflict. The report therefore organizes hypotheses into two questions and then sub-categories within each question.
Topic:: Democratization, Development, Education, Democracy, Conflict, Political Science, and USAID
Political Geography:: Libya, Syria, North America, Myanmar, South Sudan, Global Focus, and United States of America

98. THE CONTRIBUTION OF THE UNITED NATIONS POLICE TO THE PROTECTION OF CIVILIANS IN SOUTH SUDAN

Author:: Josias Marcos de Resende Silva
Publication Date:: 04-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conjuntura Austral: Journal of the Global South
Institution:: Conjuntura Austral: Journal of the Global South
Abstract:: On 8 July 2011, the Security Council established the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) to consolidate peace and security, and to help implement conditions for development. On 15 December 2013, violence broke out in the capital Juba and spread to several other locations, resulting in a countrywide armed conflict. The crisis had disastrous consequences for human rights in many parts of the country, especially in areas of greatest military confrontation. During the hostilities, UNMISS estimates that thousands of people were killed. Both parties to the conflict failed to comply with international humanitarian and human rights law directing attacks on civilians based on their ethnicity. As a result, a large number of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) sought refuge in UNMISS bases.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, United Nations, Conflict, and Police
Political Geography:: Africa and South Sudan

99. South Sudan and Israel: A love affair in a changing region?

Author:: Haim Koren
Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: Haim Koren analyzes the ongoing relationship between Israel and South Sudan. From the beginning, it made strategic sense for Israel to provide military aid to rebels in South Sudan. This would serve as a useful distraction to Egypt and Sudan, and would open a new and vulnerable front against the Arab World. However, it wasn’t until the June 1967 war that Israel truly acted upon this opportunity, following Khartoum’s decision to support Egypt in that conflict. [1] Joseph Lago, then the leader of the South Sudanese Anya-Nya ("Viper Venom") guerrilla organization, appealed desperately to Israel, asking it to help in preventing integration of Sudanese units within the Egyptian army by pinning them down in an ongoing conflict with the fighters of South Sudan. This would carry a number of advantages for Israel, including strengthening Israel’s operational connections with Kenya and Ethiopia, which were states within Israel’s geo-strategic ‘second circle.’ Providing such aid would also carry moral weight: Israel would help a nation struggling for independence against what south Sudanese felt to be Islamic “tyranny.”
Topic:: International Relations, Bilateral Relations, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, Middle East, Israel, and South Sudan

100. War Crimes and Punishment: The Terrain Compound Attack and Military Accountability in South Sudan, 2016–18

Author:: Flora McCrone
Publication Date:: 08-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: On 11 July 2016, government forces stormed Terrain, a residential compound in Juba, South Sudan. Systematic violence, looting, and vandalism ensued—including one fatality, multiple incidents of rape and torture, as well as destroyed property. War Crimes and Punishment: The Terrain compound attack and military accountability in South Sudan, 2016–18, a Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) project, examines both the attack and the subsequent special court martial that followed from May 2017 to September 2018. Despite the SPLA’s sub-par record of providing justice for victims of war crimes, the paper finds that when certain individuals and their interests align, accountability can be achieved through formal justice mechanisms.
Topic:: War Crimes, Conflict, Accountability, and Justice
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, and South Sudan

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS