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52. Divided Stands the Visegrad? The V4 have been united towards the Ukraine crisis but remain split concerning Russia
- Author:
- András Rácz
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The destabilization of Ukraine and the possible escalation of the crisis have presented a direct security risk to the Visegrad countries - Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary - particularly concerning military security, the potential interruption of energy transit, and the possible influx of refugees. These factors have forced the Visegrad states to show unprecedented unity and activism in addressing the crisis. However, regarding the possibility of sanctioning Russia, the Visegrad Group is unable to take a joint position. The main reason for this is that Russia does not pose a direct military threat to the region. Consequently the individual policies of the Visegrad countries towards Russia are defined by a constellation of geopolitical concerns, normative motivations, business interests and domestic political ambitions, which are decidedly different in all four cases. Domestic political motivations, such as the will to increase domestic legitimacy, and concerns over the economic effects of sanctions, obviously influence the foreign policy actions of the Visegrad governments. However, Viktor Orbán of Hungary was the only one to break the Visegrad solidarity on Ukraine with his domestically-motivated remarks in May 2014 and demanding autonomy for Hungarians living in the Trans-Carpathian region. As most normative, business and domestic political motivations are of a lasting strategic nature, it is highly likely that the general incoherence of the Visegrad region regarding Russia will prevail.
- Topic:
- Security, Politics, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Poland
53. Foreign Fighters in Syria
- Author:
- Richard Barrett
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Soufan Group
- Abstract:
- Over 12,000 fighters from at least 81 countries have joined the civil war in Syria, and the numbers continue to grow. Around 2,500 are from Western countries, including most members of the European Union, the United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. There are also several hundred from Russia. But the great majority are from the Arab World. Most are fighting with rebel groups, and increasingly with the most extreme among them; but many are also fighting with the Government, or with ethnic or faith communities that are trying to protect themselves from both sides. A lot are young, often teenagers, and a fair percentage of those arriving from non-Muslim majority countries are converts to Islam. These and others who share their faith commonly express their motivation as a religious obligation to protect fellow Muslims from attack. This sense of duty is captured by their loose use of the word 'jihad'.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, Middle East, Canada, Arabia, Australia, Syria, and New Zealand
54. Five Long-Term Challenges for NATO beyond the Ukraine Crisis
- Author:
- Karl-Heinz Kamp
- Publication Date:
- 07-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- NATO Defense College
- Abstract:
- Moscow's aggression against Ukraine has truly been a “game changer” for the Atlantic Alliance. Its implications for NATO's further evolution can hardly be over-estimated and after the likely shoot-down of a Malaysian civil aircraft over Ukrainian territory, controlled by pro-Russian rebels, the situation is even more unpredictable. Even if the catastrophe has put heavy political pressure on President Putin to reduce Russian involvement in Ukraine, Moscow is still not likely to revert the annexation of the Crimean peninsula. As a result, the crisis will dominate the international security debate for a long time to come. Thus, signs of resolve directed at Russia, measures to reassure the NATO members in Eastern Europe and indications of further cooperation with Ukraine will rank very high on the agenda of the NATO summit in Wales in September 2014. With the draw-down of the operation in Afghanistan, some Allies tend to see NATO's future role as primarily to preserve the territorial integrity of its member states. Hence, they argue in favour of a “back to basics” approach with an Alliance concentrated on its defence mission, according to Article 5 of the Washington Treaty.
- Topic:
- Security, Terrorism, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Malaysia, Ukraine, Asia, and Moscow
55. International Shifts and Their Security Impact on the Gulf: Key Trends and Key Numbers
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 12-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- I have been asked to help set the stage for this conference by looking at the broader issues that can address the issue of A World with No Axis? International Shifts and their Impact on the Gulf. I have spent enough time in the Gulf over the years to know how often people have strong opinions, interesting conspiracy theories, and a tendency to ignore hard numbers and facts. We all suffer from the same problems, but today I'm going to focus as much on f act s and numbers as possible. I'm only going to select only a portion of the key trends and numbers involved in my oral remarks , but I will leave the conference with a much longer paper that lists a fuller range of such data. This paper that will also be on the CSIS web site, along with a series of very detailed papers on the military balance in the Gulf. If you want to provide me with your card, I'll also make sure the papers involved are sent to your directly.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, International Security, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Middle East, Arabia, and Qatar
56. Assessing a Deal or Non-deal with Iran: The Critical Issue of Iran's Progress in Weapons Research, Development, and Production Capability.
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 11-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- It now seems unlikely that the P5+1 countries of the United States, Russia, China, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany can reach a comprehensive agreement with Iran by the end of November. A final agreement remains a possibility, but it seems far more likely that if an agreement is not reached, the negotiations will be extended rather than abandoned all together. The question then arises as to how to judge the outcome of this set of negotiations, be it an actual agreement, an extension, or the collapse of the negotiations.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, International Security, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, United Kingdom, Iran, France, and Germany
57. Conventional Arms Control in Europe and Related Regional Security Concerns
- Author:
- Isabelle Francois
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Conventional arms control in Europe remains relevant more than two decades after the singing of the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty (CFE). Today, it could serve as a useful vehicle for collaboration with Russia on a broad range of security issues, and productive movement forward would also do much to reassure and secure smaller NATO allies and regional partners. Ultimately, what is needed is a paradigm shift away from "mutual assured destruction" and towards a concept of "mutual assured stability."
- Topic:
- NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
58. Combining Realism with Vision Options for NATO's new Strategic Concept
- Author:
- Riccardo Alcaro
- Publication Date:
- 05-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Elaborating a Strategic Concept is a delicate undertaking which implies a good deal of resolve, far - sightedness, and realism. Allies should neither search for a new North Star nor give in to the temptation of de facto acceptance of the status quo as the optimal solution. Instead, they should make choices reflecting a synthesis, not just a list, of their security priorities. In particular, they should consider the future of the allied deterrence and defence strategies in a security environment characterised by significant political and technological changes, including by thinking about steps towards withdrawing US nuclear weapons in Europe and creating an integrated missile defence system; learn the lessons from the Balkans and Afghanistan and accord greater priority to stabilisation than to rapid reaction capabilities; recognise that compromises will be inevitable if they are serious about considering Russia as a partner, and start by pausing for a while with enlargement. Allies should also make it clear that they have no ambition of turning NATO into a world gendarme and shift towards cooperative crisis management.
- Topic:
- NATO, Treaties and Agreements, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Russia, United States, and Europe
59. Russia and its 'New Security Architecture' in Europe: A Critical Examination of the Concept
- Author:
- Andrey S. Makarychev
- Publication Date:
- 02-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- The paper first summarises Russia's present critique of the international security architecture and its aspiration to build something new and better. The author then presents a matrix of four models of international society as a framework within which to try and discern what Russia may be seeking. While it is clear that Russia objects to one of these models, that of a unipolar US-led world, its current foreign policy discourse and actions offer no clear guidance as to what its aims are in this regard, as there are confusions and contradictions in the different elements of official Russian discourse.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Europe
60. NATO at 60: A Hollow Alliance
- Author:
- Ted Galen Carpenter
- Publication Date:
- 03-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- As the North Atlantic Treaty Organization celebrates its 60th birthday, there are mounting signs of trouble within the alliance and reasons to doubt the organization's relevance regarding the foreign policy challenges of the 21st century. Several developments contribute to those doubts. Although NATO has added numerous new members during the past decade, most of them possess minuscule military capabilities. Some of them also have murky political systems and contentious relations with neighboring states, including (and most troubling) a nuclear-armed Russia. Thus, NATO's new members are weak, vulnerable, and provocative—an especially dangerous combination for the United States in its role as NATO's leader.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Russia and North Atlantic
61. Euro-Atlantic Security: One Vision, Three Paths
- Author:
- Piin-Fen Kok
- Publication Date:
- 06-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EastWest Institute
- Abstract:
- The Euro-Atlantic security scene is characterized by a loss of mutual confidence, renewed tensions, and serious disagreements regarding not only practices but principles. Those trends, if not corrected, will produce negative strategic consequences for the security of Europe. New opportunities have emerged today for rethinking the security situation in the Euro-Atlantic region, for strengthening confidence, changing mutual relations, and, if need be, institutions. A basis for this can be found in the hopes for improved U.S.- Russian relations expressed by U.S. President Barack Obama, in the initiative by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on reforming the European security architecture, as well as in the process of elaboration of the new NATO strategic concept.
- Topic:
- International Relations, NATO, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, and Europe
62. Fugitive Serbian War Criminals and the West
- Author:
- François Clemenceau
- Publication Date:
- 01-2008
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- European Affairs
- Institution:
- The European Institute
- Abstract:
- The two main Serbian war criminals have been protected by the diplomatic goals of the main powers, which were courting Serbia. Europeans wanted to see Belgrade join the EU; Russia wanted to preserve a Slavic bloc; the U.S. deferred to Moscow. Justice lost out, according to this book, yet to be translated into English.
- Topic:
- International Law, International Organization, War, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, Moscow, and Serbia
63. NUCLEAR FUEL BANKS: Moscow, Washington to Lead on "Mergers"
- Author:
- Danila Bochkarev
- Publication Date:
- 07-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EastWest Institute
- Abstract:
- The United States and Russia are still the giants of nuclear power, accounting for more than half the world's enriched uranium production. Twenty-five percent of the world's nuclear power plants are found in the United States and half of those power plants use Russian uranium. Russian nuclear fuel now constitutes 10 percent of the U.S. power generation mix. The interdependence arising from existing trade in nuclear fuel points toward a natural partnership.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, National Security, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Russia and United States
64. The Wider Black Sea Region in the 21st Century: Strategic, Economic and Energy Perspectives
- Author:
- Daniel Hamilton and Gerhard Mangott
- Publication Date:
- 01-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Transatlantic Relations
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia
65. The UK Contribution to the G8 Global Partnership Against the Spread of Weapons of Mass Destruction, 2002-06
- Author:
- Paul Cornish
- Publication Date:
- 01-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- The G8 Global Partnership Against the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction was established at the G8 summit meeting in Kananaskis, Canada in June 2002. The Kananaskis summit produced a new prescription for international cooperation in non-proliferation. The 'ten plus ten over ten' formula was intended to provide the means for tighter control over chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) weapons and materials, initially in Russia and then elsewhere, and particularly to prevent terrorist acquisition of such devices and technologies. In the founding document of the Global Partnership, the 'Statement by G8 Leaders', the following were listed as 'among our priority concerns': the destruction of chemical weapons; the dismantlement of decommissioned nuclear submarines; the disposal of fissile materials; and finding alternative employment for former weapons scientists. The UK government had been contributing to work in this field for several years before Kananaskis, and has been a leading participant in the G8 Global Partnership since its inception.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Japan, United Kingdom, Europe, Canada, and Asia
66. Dismantling the DPRK’s Nuclear Weapons Program: A Practicable, Verifiable Plan of Action
- Author:
- David Albright and Corey Hinderstein
- Publication Date:
- 01-2006
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Science and International Security
- Abstract:
- Verified dismantlement of the nuclear weapons program of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) can be accomplished successfully. Although difficulties abound in reaching an agreement with the DPRK to achieve this goal, the methods and steps involved in the dismantlement process are well understood. Because this goal remains vital to U.S. and international security, the United States has joined with China, Japan, Russia, and South Korea in working toward verified denuclearization of the Korean peninsula with the cooperation of the DPRK. These six nations have launched a series of negotiations, called the Six-Party Talks, aimed at resolving the crisis over the DPRK’s nuclear program. These nations are also attempting to create a plan to dismantle the DPRK’s program in a manner with which all the nations can feel secure.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons, International Security, and Disarmament
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Japan, China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America
67. Facing the Terrorist Challenge - Central Asia's Role in Regional and International Co-operation - Study Groups: Regional Stability in Central Asia Security Sector Reform
- Author:
- Anja H. Ebnöther, Ernst M. Felberbauer, and Martin Malek
- Publication Date:
- 04-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Austrian National Defence Academy
- Abstract:
- After the collapse of the Soviet Union the five Central Asian former Soviet Republics (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) appeared as one region. Though it is scientifically debatable if “Central Asia” consists of only these five stat es or if others should be included as well (e.g. Afghanistan, Mongolia), my findings will basically deal with the five former Soviet Central Asian republics – sometimes, where appropriate, with references to adjacent countries.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Terrorism, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Middle East, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Asia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan