Political Geography: Russia / Publication Year: within 25 Years / Topic: International Security

1. Integrating Earth observation IMINT with OSINT data to create added-value multisource intelligence information: A case study of the Ukraine–Russia war

Author:: Ioannis Kotaridis and Georgios Benekos
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 heralded a new “social media war” era. This “hybrid warfare” extends beyond the military landscape and includes attacks in cyberspace and fake news with the aim of destabilising governments. The goal of this paper is to present a high-level of architecture based on imagery intelligence (IMINT) and geospatial intelligence (GEOINT) using geographic datasets and state-of-the-art methods. Integration with intelligence information (like Open-Source Intelligence [OSINT]) produces multiintelligent knowledge for security and defence decision-making end users. The results depict a harmonious and creative collaboration between IMINT, OSINT, and GEOINT. OSINT data helps to identify and describe the meteorological conditions that are present, contributing to the procedure’s responsiveness. Weather and dense cloud cover above Ukraine poses a challenge for optical imaging satellites, but synthetic aperture radar (SAR) sensor satellites can operate at night and overcome the problem. We carried out OSINT and IMINT analysis, monitoring the situation shortly after the invasion. OSINT data helped in the choice of an appropriate area of interest. Using the right Earth observation satellite system and artificial intelligence/machine learning algorithms is the best way to keep an eye on many different sites over long periods, send out alerts about unusual activity, and find new places where incoherent changes might be happening.
Topic:: International Security, Artificial Intelligence, Hybrid Warfare, Military, Russia-Ukraine War, and Open Source Intelligence (OSINT)
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

2. Rising from the Ashes: The Future of Arms Control

Author:: Victor Mizin and Yue Yuan
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: This paper employs a comparative approach to provide an initial comprehensive analysis of the political interactions, contemporary nuclear policies, and military strategies and capabilities of China, Russia, and the United States in the context of the unstable international security landscape. At a time when the global arms control regime is teetering on the brink of disintegration, the authors aim to offer practical and feasible policy recommendations for remodeling the arms control regime from the Chinese and Russian perspectives. The authors stress the need to revive “traditional” arms control and advocate the search for ways to control emerging military technologies. This paper endeavors to present a two-pronged vision proposed by representatives of two major global players.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and International Security
Political Geography:: Russia, China, and United States of America

3. Do the BRICS care about International Security?

Author:: Filippo Cutrera
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: BRICS Policy Center
Abstract:: The present paper has three main objectives: first, to show that, over the first decade of existence of the group, between 2009 and 2018, the BRICS have manifested an increasing interest in expanding their cooperation beyond the traditional areas of economy and development to the field of global security; second, to present the content of their common security agenda and how it has developed throughout this period; third, to identify the main factors influencing the agenda-setting process of the group as well as the main challenges to further advancement. The research will conclude that the high levels of informality in the group’s cooperation and heterogeneity in the interests of its members have enabled BRICS to formulate common positions and to establish cooperation mechanisms on a broad range of issues of international security.
Topic:: International Cooperation, National Security, Regional Cooperation, and International Security
Political Geography:: Russia, China, India, South Africa, and Brazil

4. Information disorder and What Ukraine is Doing About It: Analysis of Ukraine’s Policies and Actions to Combat Russia-Generated information disorder

Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
Abstract:: It is a conventional wisdom that information is power, but even more power lies in the manner in which it is (mis)used. Disinformation, misinformation, malinformation, all parts of so called ‘information disorder’, are phenomena that seem to be wreaking havoc worldwide nowadays. The emergence of the Internet and social media has brought fundamental changes to the way information is produced, communicated and distributed and thus has given new momentum to the phenomenon of ‘information disorder’. Its effects, in combination with online technologies, are proving to be devastating: it destabilizes public discourse, undermines general belief in democratic institutions and threatens national, international and civilian security. Based on a theoretical analysis approach, the paper will look into the nature of the ‘information disorder’, and how the Internet and social media contribute to its growing influence. It will also examine what are the effects of the phenomenon, and how it threatens national and international security. With Russia arguably being the most aggressive in spreading disinformation nowadays, and Ukraine being the country affected by Russia’s information offensive the most, the paper will try to analyze Ukraine’s policies and actions to combat Russia-generated ‘information disorder’. In the conclusion, the paper will make an effort to suggest recommendations on tackling negative informing.
Topic:: International Security, Geopolitics, Information Age, Basic Data, and Propaganda
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and Asia

5. The Modern Interfaces of Intermarium and the Fight against Destiny

Author:: Adrian Popa and Cristian Barna
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
Institution:: Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
Abstract:: Russia’s recent buildup of A2/AD (anti-access/area denial) forces in Crimea and Kaliningrad, coupled with its increasingly confronting rhetoric in the Black and Baltic Seas, pose a serious challenge for the NATO’s Eastern flank countries. While the mare sui generis status of the Black Sea might be altered under the expected inauguration of Canal Istanbul in 2023 as it would probably require the revision of the Montreux Convention, the mare liberum status of the Baltic Sea might also be questioned as Russia contests NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence in this region. Facing this challenging geostrategic context, Pilsudski’s ideas of Intermarium seem to have revived within the Central and Eastern European countries under modern interfaces such as the Bucharest Nine and the Three Seas Initiative. This paper proposes a comparative analysis between the Black Sea and the Baltic Sea in terms of their newly-emerged geostrategic context, discusses the feasibility of the recent endeavours to promote cooperation within the Central and Eastern European countries and not ultimately, highlights the utility of a regional military alliance in support of NATO.
Topic:: NATO, Diplomacy, International Security, International Affairs, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Asia, Crimea, Baltic Sea, and Baltic States

6. Perceptions and Reflections of the Security Crisis in the Black Sea Region

Author:: Plamen Pantev
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:: The first reflection about the geopolitical environment that Bulgaria faced after the tectonic systemic shifts in the end of the 80s and the beginning of the 90s of the 20th century thirty years later is that the efforts of the country to influence the transformation of the Balkans into a regional security community were successful. The second reflection is that Bulgaria was not able to influence effectively a similar development in the Black Sea area. Both the Balkans and the Caspian Sea-Caucasus- Black Sea area were conflictual knots of relations inherited from the Cold War divide. While the traditional European great powers that polarized the Balkan system of international relations pushing the small countries one against the other and the United States had the strategic interest of pacifying the South Eastern region of Europe, the dominating great power in the Black Sea area – Russia, aimed at preserving the opportunities of coming back to the territories that the Soviet Union lost after its collapse by preserving various degrees of conflictness in the neighbouring countries. Depending on the general condition of the Russian economy and state as well as its domestic political status different opportunities were either designed or just used to preserve the profile of Russia of the empire that sooner or later will be back. What are, in this regard, the perceptions in Bulgaria of the annexation of Crimea?
Topic:: Security, International Security, Geopolitics, Conflict, and Empire
Political Geography:: Russia, Caucasus, Soviet Union, Bulgaria, and Caspian Sea

7. Regards sur l’Eurasie - L'année politique 2018

Author:: Anne De Tinguy, Annie Daubenton, Olivier Ferrando, Sophie Hohmann, Jacques Lévesque, Nicolas Mazzuchi, Gaïdz Minassian, Thierry Pasquet, Tania Sollogoub, and Julien Thorez
Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:: Regards sur l’Eurasie. L’année politique est une publication annuelle du Centre de recherches internationales de Sciences Po (CERI) dirigée par Anne de Tinguy. Elle propose des clefs de compréhension des événements et des phénomènes qui marquent de leur empreinte les évolutions d’une région, l’espace postsoviétique, en profonde mutation depuis l’effondrement de l’Union soviétique en 1991. Forte d’une approche transversale qui ne prétend nullement à l’exhaustivité, elle vise à identifier les grands facteurs explicatifs, les dynamiques régionales et les enjeux sous-jacents.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Corruption, Democratization, Economics, Health, International Security, Natural Resources, Conflict, Multilateralism, Europeanization, Political Science, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Caucasus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan

8. Breaking the Ice Curtain? Russia, Canada, and Arctic Security in a Changing Circumpolar World

Author:: P. Whitney Lackenbauer, Suzanne Lalonde, Viatcheslav Gavrilov, P. Whitney Lackenbauer, Alexander Sergunin, Troy Bouffard, Andrea Charron, Jim Fergusson, Robert Huebert, and Suzanne Lalonde
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Book
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: Canada and Russia are the geographical giants, spanning most of the circumpolar world. Accordingly, the Arctic is a natural area of focus for the two countries. The region plays strongly into their identity politics, with leaders often invoking sovereignty and security frames to drum up support for investments in this “frontier of destiny.”1 The purported need to protect sovereign territory and resources from foreign encroachment or outright theft, backed by explicit appeals to nationalism, can produce a siege mentality that encourages a narrow, inward-looking view. Although the end of the Cold War seemed to portend a new era of deep cooperation between these two Arctic countries, lingering wariness about geopolitical motives and a mutual lack of knowledge about the other’s slice of the circumpolar world are conspiring to pit Canada and the Russian Federation as Arctic adversaries. Are Russian and Canadian Arctic policies moving in confrontational direction? Can efforts at circumpolar cooperation survive the current crisis in Russian-Western relations, or does an era of growing global competition point inherently to heightened Arctic conflict?
Topic:: Defense Policy, Sovereignty, International Security, Territorial Disputes, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: Russia, Canada, North America, and Arctic

9. U.S. Nuclear Excess: Understanding the Costs, Risks, and Alternatives

Author:: Kingston Reif and Alicia Sanders-Zakre
Publication Date:: 04-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Arms Control Association
Abstract:: In a little-noticed comment before his controversial July 2018 summit meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Helsinki, U.S. President Donald Trump characterized his government’s multi-hundred billion dollar plans to replace the aging U.S. nuclear arsenal as “a very, very bad policy.” He seemed to express some hope that Russia and the United States, which together possess over 90 percent of the planet’s nuclear warheads, could chart a different path and avert renewed military and nuclear competition. The Helsinki meeting, however, did not produce any agreement on nuclear weapons and Trump has so far shown little interest in a different nuclear spending path. Quite the opposite, in fact.“We have far more money than anybody else by far,” Trump said last October. “We’ll build [the U.S. nuclear arsenal] up until” other nuclear-armed states such as Russia and China “come to their senses.” Citing a deteriorating international security environment, the Trump administration is pursuing a significant expansion of the role and capability of the U.S. nuclear arsenal. In addition to continuing full speed ahead with its predecessor’s plans to replace the nuclear triad and its associated warheads on largely a like-for-like basis, the administration is proposing to broaden the circumstances under which the United States would consider the first use of nuclear weapons, develop two new sea-based, lowyield nuclear options, and lay the groundwork to grow the size of the arsenal. At the same time, key U.S.-Russian nuclear arms control agreements, which serve to regulate the nuclear balance and prevent unconstrained nuclear competition, are now in serious doubt. The Trump administration has announced the United States will leave the landmark 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in August 2019 unless Russia returns to compliance with the pact, and expressed hostility towards extending the 2010 New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START). New START expires in 2021 but can be extended by up to five years subject to the agreement of Washington and Moscow. In short, the Trump administration is preparing to compete in a new nuclear arms race while simultaneously increasing the likelihood of such a contest. The projected cost of the proposed nuclear spending spree is staggering and it is growing. The United States currently plans to spend nearly $500 billion, after including the effects of inflation, to maintain and replace its nuclear arsenal over the next decade, according to a January 2019 Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report. This is an increase of nearly $100 billion, or about 23 percent, above the already enormous projected cost as of the end of the Obama administration. Over the next 30 years, the price tag is likely to top $1.5 trillion and could even approach $2 trillion. These big nuclear bills are coming due as the Defense Department is seeking to replace large portions of its conventional forces and internal and external fiscal pressures are likely to limit the growth of—and perhaps reduce—military spending. “We’re going to have enormous pressure on reducing the debt which means that defense spending—I’d like to tell you it’s going to keep going up—[but] I’m not terribly optimistic,” Alan Shaffer, deputy under secretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment, said in February 2019. This report outlines the ways in which the Trump administration’s nuclear strategy is unnecessary, unsustainable, and unsafe. It describes three realistic options to reduce spending on nuclear weapons while still maintaining a devastating nuclear deterrent. Scores of billions of dollars could be saved or redirected to higher priorities by eliminating, delaying, or scaling back the administration’s proposals for new delivery systems, warheads, and infrastructure.
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, International Security, Nonproliferation, Denuclearization, and Arms Race
Political Geography:: Russia and United States

10. Maintaining America’s Coercive Economic Strength

Author:: Paula J. Dobriansky
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: U.S. foreign policy officials have embraced economic sanctions as a tool of choice for American foreign policy. Decisionmakers have deployed sanctions against strategic adversaries and national security threats ranging from Russia to non-state actors such as terrorist groups, drug cartels, and businesspeople who engage in corrupt activities. The appeal to both policy leaders and key constituent groups of the potent economic impacts of sanctions in several recent high-profile cases, particularly those of Iran, Russia, North Korea, and Venezuela, combined with broad bipartisan support for aggressive use of U.S. sanctions, suggests that the United States will favor this policy tool and be an active practitioner in the years ahead
Topic:: International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Russia

11. The Domestic Politics of Nuclear Choices

Author:: Elizabeth N. Saunders
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Security
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: When and how do domestic politics influence a state's nuclear choices? Recent scholarship on nuclear security develops many domestic-political explanations for different nuclear decisions. These explanations are partly the result of two welcome trends: first, scholars have expanded the nuclear timeline, examining state behavior before and after nuclear proliferation; and second, scholars have moved beyond blunt distinctions between democracies and autocracies to more fine-grained understandings of domestic constraints. But without linkages between them, new domestic-political findings could be dismissed as a laundry list of factors that do not explain significant variation in nuclear decisions. This review essay assesses recent research on domestic politics and nuclear security, and develops a framework that illuminates when and how domestic-political mechanisms are likely to affect nuclear choices. In contrast to most previous domestic arguments, many of the newer domestic-political mechanisms posited in the literature are in some way top-down; that is, they show leaders deliberately maintaining or loosening control over nuclear choices. Two dimensions govern the extent and nature of domestic-political influence on nuclear choices: the degree of threat uncertainty and the costs and benefits to leaders of expanding the circle of domestic actors involved in a nuclear decision. The framework developed in this review essay helps make sense of several cases explored in the recent nuclear security literature. It also has implications for understanding when and how domestic-political arguments might diverge from the predictions of security-based analyses.
Topic:: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, International Security, Domestic Politics, and Nonproliferation
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, China, Iran, and North Korea

12. How to Enlarge NATO: The Debate inside the Clinton Administration, 1993–95

Author:: M.E. Sarotte
Publication Date:: 07-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Security
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Newly available sources show how the 1993–95 debate over the best means of expanding the North Atlantic Treaty Organization unfolded inside the Clinton administration. This evidence comes from documents recently declassified by the Clinton Presidential Library, the Defense Department, and the State Department because of appeals by the author. As President Bill Clinton repeatedly remarked, the two key questions about enlargement were when and how. The sources make apparent that, during a critical decisionmaking period twenty-five years ago, supporters of a relatively swift conferral of full membership to a narrow range of countries outmaneuvered proponents of a slower, phased conferral of limited membership to a wide range of states. Pleas from Central and Eastern European leaders, missteps by Russian President Boris Yeltsin, and victory by the pro-expansion Republican Party in the 1994 U.S. congressional election all helped advocates of full-membership enlargement to win. The documents also reveal the surprising impact of Ukrainian politics on this debate and the complex roles played by both Strobe Talbott, a U.S. ambassador and later deputy secretary of state, and Andrei Kozyrev, the Russian foreign minister. Finally, the sources suggest ways in which the debate's outcome remains significant for transatlantic and U.S.-Russian relations today.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, International Security, and Clinton Administration
Political Geography:: Russia and United States

13. The Demographic Transition Theory of War: Why Young Societies Are Conflict Prone and Old Societies Are the Most Peaceful

Author:: Deborah Jordan Brooks, Stephen G. Brooks, Brian D. Greenhill, and Mark L. Haas
Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Security
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: The world is experiencing a period of unprecedented demographic change. For the first time in human history, marked disparities in age structures exist across the globe. Around 40 percent of the world's population lives in countries with significant numbers of elderly citizens. In contrast, the majority of the world's people live in developing countries with very large numbers of young people as a proportion of the total population. Yet, demographically, most of the world's states with young populations are aging, and many are doing so quickly. This first-of-its kind systematic theoretical and empirical examination of how these demographic transitions influence the likelihood of interstate conflict shows that countries with a large number of young people as a proportion of the total population are the most prone to international conflict, whereas states with the oldest populations are the most peaceful. Although societal aging is likely to serve as a force for enhanced stability in most, and perhaps all, regions of the world over the long term, the road to a “demographic peace” is likely to be bumpy in many parts of the world in the short to medium term.
Topic:: Demographics, War, International Security, Democracy, and International Relations Theory
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Japan, China, Germany, and Global Focus

14. U.S. Grand Strategy Towards Russia 2001-2017

Author:: Martins Hirss
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: Objectives: U.S. foreign policy towards Russia is of the utmost importance for the national security of the countries on the NATO eastern flank. Grand strategies are among the analytical concepts for classification and analysis of U.S. actions in the international arena. This paper uses grand strategy classification framework to classify and analyse U.S. strategy towards Russia from 2001 to 2017. Methods: 36 speeches about Russia by U.S. Presidents George Bush and Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden from 2001 to 2017 were used in content analysis. U.S. grand strategy classification framework was used as the tool for coding and classifying different foreign policy elements within these speeches to identify different approaches towards Russia. Results: The content analysis allowed to identify nine stages in U.S. policy towards Russia from 2001 to 2017. The most significant shift during this period was in 2014 when after Russia’s aggression in Ukraine U.S. strategy towards Russia shifted from liberal internationalism towards primacy. Conclusions: Ideas of liberal internationalist and increasingly primacist grand strategies do influence U.S. foreign policy towards Russia. The grand strategy classification framework offers a valuable tool for analyzing, classifying and identifying different foreign policy stages in U.S foreign policy towards Russia.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Security, and Grand Strategy
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, North America, and United States of America

15. Russia's return to the superpower status

Author:: Mirosław Minkina
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: Objectives: The elite of Russian power and Russian society have never come to terms with the collapse of the Soviet Union. They also did not accept the world order with the primary role of the United States. The purpose of this article is to characterize the policy of the Russian Federation, which is aimed at rebuilding the superpower position of this state, and to identify the reasons that clearly define Russia’s determination in this respect. Methods: Achieving the formulated goal will be possible by answering the question: Why does Russia strive to rebuild the status of the global superpower and what actions it undertakes in its policy? This question is the main research problem, which the authors of the article have taken up. In order to solve the indicated problem, theoretical methods will be used in the form of: source and literature criticiam, analysis, synthesis and inference. Results: Nobody negates the fact that Russia is still one of the largest countries in the world. Nonetheless, it is much smaller and weaker than the USSR. By means of assertive, not to say aggressive, and anti-western politics it demands to be recognized as a superpower eligible to decide on the international order. However, in the contemporary world, the territory decides about the superpower status to a much smaller extent. Conclusions: The foundations of the Russian superpower status are weak, and the popular anti-western narrative is not conducive to strengthening the Kremlin's position internationally.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, International Security, and Superpower
Political Geography:: Russia and Eurasia

16. Permanent Deterrence: Enhancements to the US Military Presence in North Central Europe

Author:: Philip Breedlove and Alexander Vershbow
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: North Central Europe has become the central point of confrontation between the West and a revisionist Russia. Under President Vladimir Putin, Russia is determined to roll back the post-Cold War settlement and undermine the rules-based order that has kept Europe secure since the end of World War II. Moscow’s invasion and continued occupation of Georgian and Ukrainian territories, its military build-up in Russia’s Western Military District and Kaliningrad, and its “hybrid” warfare against Western societies have heightened instability in the region have made collective defense and deterrence an urgent mission for the United States and NATO
Topic:: International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Russia

17. Regards sur l’Eurasie - L’année politique 2016

Author:: Anne De Tinguy, Bayram Balci, François Dauceé, Laure Delcour, Tatiana Kastouéva-Jean, Aude Merlin, Xavier Richet, Kathy Rousselet, and Julien Vercueil
Publication Date:: 02-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:: Looking into Eurasia : the year in politics provides some keys to understand the events and phenomena that have left their imprint on a region that has undergone major mutation since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991: the post-soviet space. With a cross-cutting approach that is no way claims to be exhaustive, this study seeks to identify the key drivers, the regional dynamics and the underlying issues at stake
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Corruption, Crime, Democratization, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Politics, Sovereignty, War, International Security, Regional Integration, and State
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, Caucasus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Belarus, and European Union

18. The Plutonium Disposition Management Agreement: Russia’s Withdrawal and the Possible Consequences

Author:: Debalina Ghoshal
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Council on International Policy (CIP)
Abstract:: InOctober2016,RussianPresidentVladmirPutin suspendedthePlutoniumDispositionManagementAgreement (PDMA) that mandated both the United States and Russia to eliminate a sufficient quantity of weapons grade plutonium. The suspension of the PDMA represents a step away toward achieving nuclear disarmament, a crucial component of the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty (NPT) under Article VI.
Topic:: International Security and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:: Russia and Global Focus

19. Russia’s Evolving South Caucasus Policy Security Concerns amid Ethno-political Conflicts

Author:: Sergey Markedonov
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: The South Caucasus continues to be critically important to Eurasian security. The outbreak of fighting in April 2016 between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the breakaway republic of Nagorno-Karabakh introduced new uncertainty and confrontation to the region. Russia’s policies here are crucial, as they are in the region’s other ethno-political conflicts, in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Sergey Markedonov offers an insider’s perspective on the Kremlin’s involvement in the region, highlighting its security concerns and stressing that Russia is not taking a universal approach to all of the post-Soviet conflict zones. While the “Western” political and expert community often assumes that territorial revisionism is a kind of idée fixe within Russia, this is far from the case. Each situation demands an indi- vidual response from Moscow, as it weighs and pursues its own interests. This in turn explains the improbability of “Crimean situations” multiplying in the South Caucasus. The region undoubtedly harbors risks of confrontation – not only between Russia and the countries of the immediate region but also with such large powers as the US, the EU, Turkey, and Iran – but it also holds several opportunities for cooperation.
Topic:: International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Russia

20. The Trump-Putin Meeting: From Hamburg to Southern Syria

Author:: Zvi Magen and Udi Dekel
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The arrangement between the United States and Russia over southern Syria represents a test, both for the chances of jumpstarting a coordinated process between the world powers over a future settlement in Syria and for the relations between them on other contested issues. Israel was not mentioned in the context of the ceasefire arrangement, but it has scored several achievements. Nonetheless, Israel is likely to confront an attempt by President Assad to advance forces to southwest Syria and the Golan Heights. Because Assad’s forces rely on help from Iran’s proxies – Shiite militias and Hezbollah – Israel may have to fulfill a counter-threat if any of the red lines it announced are crossed.
Topic:: International Cooperation, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Russia and America

21. Politics & Polls #51: The Trump-Russia Story with Benjamin Wittes

Author:: Julian Zelizer and Sam Wang
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:: President Donald Trump has spent his first months faced with a potential scandal involving Russia, an issue that’s only grown since the election with discussions and investigations about possible obstruction and collusion. In recent weeks, this has dominated national political debates, especially in Congress and the White House. Benjamin Wittes, co-founder and editor-in-chief of the Lawfare blog, joins this episode of Politics & Polls to discuss where things stand in the Trump-Russia scandal. The Lawfare blog is “devoted to sober and serious discussion of ‘hard national security choices.’” Wittes, a journalist who focuses on national security and law, is also a senior fellow in governance studies at the Brookings Institution. He is the author of “Detention and Denial: The Case for Candor After Guantanamo”, published in November 2011; co-editor of “Constitution 3.0: Freedom and Technological Change,” published in December 2011; and editor of “Campaign 2012: Twelve Independent Ideas for Improving American Public Policy,” published in May 2017 by the Brookings Institution Press.
Topic:: International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:: Russia and America

22. Russian Hybrid Warefare: A Study in Disinformation

Author:: Flemming Splidsboel Hansen
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: The basic tenet of the Russian disinformation strategy is the claim that all news is constructed and therefore contested. In the best postmodern tradition they claim there is no ‘objective news’ – only different, rivalling interpretations which purport to show different aspects of what may be called ‘reality’. And what the Russian media outlets present are merely possible explanations which serve as alternatives to the stories offered by Western media. It is a strategy which is both cunning and elegant as it preys on the enlightenment tradition and on the vulnerabilities of liberal democratic media. The Russian authorities seem to believe that (dis-) information campaigns hold great prospects. In a 2017 article, the Russian Chief of Staff informed the public about the Russian military thinking on the topic of ‘war’ and on the role of the non-military or "non-kinetic" in this. It seems premature to conclude that this thinking sees the possibility of war as an exclusively non-kinetic activity – this at least was not announced in the article – but the development points strongly in this direction and we should therefore expect to see an increased Russian focus on (dis-) information campaigns designed to bring well-defined outcomes. There will not be any easy or fix-it-all solutions to this development. Rather, liberal democracies, especially vulnerable as a result of their free media culture, should prepare themselves for a long-term commitment to countering disinformation and to building up cognitive resilience to ensure that the former has minimal effect.
Topic:: International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:: Russia

23. What are the Implications of Russia-Turkey S-400 Missile Deal?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Turkey and Russia recently announced that their talks about the delivery of the Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile defense system to Ankara were now at a nal stage. That is a sign that a key element of the deal, estimated at USD 2.5 billion, has already been achieved. According to statements delivered by Sergei Chemezov, the head of Russia’s Rostec state corporation, in Moscow one week before the MAKS-2017 air-show, the two countries resolved technical issues regarding the con- tract of the four missile interceptor batteries, with only administrative issues remaining. His statement indicates that the serious steps have been already taken towards implement- ing what can be described as a done deal.
Topic:: International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Russia and Turkey

24. New Russia Sanctions from Congress

Author:: Elizabeth Rosenberg, Neil Bhatiya, and Edorado Saravalle
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: Congress adopted new sanctions in late July to codify and significantly expand U.S. financial restrictions on Russia and tightly constrain the president’s exercise of policy in this domain. The sanctions bill was driven by concerns over Russia’s interference in U.S. elections and destabilizing aggression abroad, as well as a broadly held belief by legislators that the president is mishandling critical national security issues. With these new sanctions authorities, Congress is taking an unprecedented step to assume greater control over a domain of foreign policy
Topic:: International Relations, International Trade and Finance, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Russia and America

25. The Future of Transatlantic Sanctions on Russia

Author:: Peter Harrell, Tom Keatinge, Sarah Lain, and Elizabeth Rosenberg
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: Sanctions on Russia are part of a broad and coordinated U.S. and European policy to counter Russian aggression. The majority of these transatlantic coercive economic measures target Russia’s involvement in Eastern Ukraine and date from 2014. The strategic foreign policy concerns that underlie the use of sanctions as a tactic, however, are far broader and much more longstanding. Contemporary financial sanctions are fundamentally a new and innovative tactic among a broader array of military, diplomatic, media, and cyber options, to coordinate transatlantic policy on Russia and craft political and economic leverage for the West.
Topic:: International Political Economy and International Security
Political Geography:: Russia

26. New Order for Old Triangles? The Russia-China-India Matrix

Author:: Bobo Lo
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: The influence these great powers exert, on themselves and others, is uneven and difficult to predict. Alongside a public consensus on a “democratic world order”, there are significant differences of perspective and sometimes conflicting interests. It is far from clear whether the Russia-China-India matrix can form the basis of an emerging network of cooperation, or whether its contradictions foreshadow an increasingly problematic engagement.
Topic:: International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:: Russia, China, and India

27. President Putin’s Internet and “Information Warfare”

Author:: Kazimierz Wóycicki
Publication Date:: 11-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
Abstract:: The war that Russia is conducting against Ukraine today is not only related to breaking the post-World War II rules of engagement, but is also being run in a new way, which was to a certain degree unknown before. is phenomenon had been named “hybrid warfare”, initially mainly paying attention to the military aspect of the issue, symbolically represented by “little green men”. e focus of attention has been shifting to what military actions of hybrid-war are often accompanied by intense propaganda activities, with the Internet as the main tool. they are planned and carried out in Russia, possessing extensive resources in Russian literature on so-called “information warfare”.
Topic:: International Security and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:: Russia

28. Combating Terrorism and Alleviating Human Suffering in Syria

Author:: Andrew J. Tabler
Publication Date:: 02-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In this new Transition 2017 paper, Institute expert Andrew J. Tabler argues that Syria remains de facto partitioned, making the establishment of safe zones in non-Assad-controlled areas the Trump administration's most expedient course of action. Moreover, it would further Washington's cause to drive a wedge into the country's Russia-Iran alliance, and both isolate and pressure the Assad regime. If Washington's objectives in Syria are to defeat U.S.-designated terrorist groups and stem the outflow of refugees, President Bashar al-Assad is under no circumstances the right person to entrust with these missions. Simply in practical terms, he lacks the manpower to retake and hold the two-thirds of Syrian territory outside his control any time soon, despite having sufficient support from Russia and Iran to maintain control in large parts of the country. But more important, Assad is an avowed adversary of the West, undeserving of its cooperation.
Topic:: International Relations, Civil War, International Security, International Affairs, and Neoimperialism
Political Geography:: Russia, America, Iran, and Syria

29. Russian Active Measures and Influence Campaigns

Author:: Eugene B. Rumer
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Deception and active measures in all their incarnations have long been and will remain a staple of Russia’s dealings with the outside world for the foreseeable future.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Security, International Affairs, Elections, Democracy, and Post Truth Politics
Political Geography:: Russia and America

30. La Turquie face aux réfugiés syriens : entre engagement humanitaire et instrumentalisation politique (Turkey Hosting Syrian Refugees: Between Humanitarian Commitment and Political Instrumentalisation)

Author:: Bayram Balci and Juliette Tolay
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:: While the issue of Syrian refugees has led an increasing number of countries to work on curbing arrivals, one country, Turkey, hosts almost half of these refugees. Yet, far from imposing restrictions, Turkey has distinguished itself for its open border policy and large-scale humanitarian contribution. Turkey’s generosity alone is not sufficient to understand this asylum policy put in place specifically for Syrians. There are indeed a number of political factors that indicate a certain level of instrumentalisation of this issue. In particular, Turkey’s benevolent attitude can be explained by Turkey’s early opposition to Assad in the Syrian conflict and its wish to play a role in the post-conflict reconstruction of Syria, as well as by its willingness to extract material and symbolic benefits from the European Union. But the refugee crisis also matters at the level of domestic politics, where different political parties (in power or in the opposition) seem to have used the refugee issue opportunistically, at the expense of a climate favorable to Syrians’ healthy integration in Turkey.
Topic:: Globalization, Migration, Nationalism, Religion, Terrorism, War, International Security, Diaspora, Peacekeeping, Refugees, Syrian War, Regional Integration, and Transnational Actors
Political Geography:: Russia, Turkey, Middle East, Balkans, and Syria

31. Nuclear Arms Control Choices for the Next Administration

Author:: Steven Pifer
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: rms control has figured on the agenda between Washington and Moscow since the 1960s. Suc- cessive U.S. administrations since that of Richard Nixon have pursued negotiated arms control arrangements to limit and reduce the number of Soviet (and Russian) nuclear weapons, to enhance strategic stability, to increase transparency and predictability, to reduce the costs of U.S. nuclear forces, and to bolster America’s non-proliferation credentials. Negotiations on arms control have proceeded in times of both good and difficult relations. At times, progress on arms control has helped drive a more positive over- all relationship between Washington and Moscow. At other times, differences over arms control and related issues have contributed to a downward slide in rela- tions. The next president will take office in January 2017, when the overall U.S.-Russia relationship is at its lowest point since the end of the Cold War.
Topic:: International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and International Security
Political Geography:: Russia and America

32. Back from the Brink Toward Restraint and Dialogue between Russia and the West

Author:: William Perry and Deep Cuts Commission
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: This report contains a number of bold proposals on how to better manage relations between the West and Russia in order to avert worst-case scenarios. Specifying that cooperative solutions are pos- sible without giving up on the fundamental interests of each side, it warrants a close look by officials in both Moscow and Washington.
Topic:: International Relations, International Cooperation, International Security, International Affairs, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Russia, America, Europe, and Global Focus

33. Evaluating Western Sanctions on Russia

Author:: Sergey Aleksashenko
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: It has been more than two years since the European Union (EU) and the United States (US) imposed economic sanctions on Russia for its aggression in Ukraine. For some of the measures, though not all, that is time enough to evaluate effectiveness. But before such an assessment can be made, the initial goals of the sanctions should be clearly stated. This is not as straightforward as it might seem.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Security, Sanctions, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Russia, America, and European Union

34. US And Russia: Insecurity and Mistrust Shape Mutual Perceptions

Author:: Dina Smeltz, Stepan Goncharov, and Lily Wojtowicz
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: A breakdown in cooperation between the United States and Russia in Syria, disputes over bilateral arms control agreements, and official US allegations of Russian cyber-meddling in the US presidential election have increased bilateral tensions. Most recently, the Kremlin ended participation in a joint agreement with the United States to eliminate both countries’ excess stocks of weapons grade plutonium. Yet even before these recent developments, increasingly frosty diplomatic relations seem to have taken their toll on mutual perceptions in public opinion.
Topic:: International Relations, International Security, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Russia and America

35. A Few Words on Real Russia

Author:: Yan Vaslavsky
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Rethinking Russia
Abstract:: Vladimir Putin delivered his Annual Presidential Address to the Federal Assembly at St. George’s Hall of the Great Kremlin Palace on December 1. The state-of-the- nation address is regarded as a major speech over a 12-month period. It usually recounts the progress and outlines national priorities and the development agenda for the near future. This format is not unique1, but it tends to command attention of the general public at home and abroad as well as of parliamentarians to whom, judging by its very name, it is addressed.
Topic:: International Relations, International Cooperation, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Russia and Global Focus

36. Russophrenia: western elites ignore their own citizens’ anger and blame Russia instead

Author:: Bryan MacDonald
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Rethinking Russia
Abstract:: At the start of 1917, rumours reached London that something was stirring in Petrograd (now St. Petersburg). As a result, the concerned Prime Minister, David Lloyd George, urgently dispatched Lord Milner, a diplomat of some repute, to the Russian capital. His Lordship visited the Tsar and spoke to ministers and members of the Duma, who informed him that enemies of the state were spreading groundless yarns. Sadly, being a creature of his class, Milner believed that only the elites mattered so he neglected to consult any of the general public. Thus, cocooned in his bubble, the peer reported to London that there was nothing the government could not handle and no need to expect no major changes. However, the same British travelling party also included Lloyd George’s private secretary Philip Kerr. A little more clued in, Kerr walked the streets and interviewed the plain folk. Armed with their predictions, he sent a telegram to Downing Street which asserted that Russia was on the verge of an unstoppable revolution. As it happens, the man who stepped out of the comfort zone was right because Nikolai II was shorn of his crown before the British delegation made it home. We know this story because many years later the ‘Welsh Wizard,’ Lloyd George, revealed the details to Ivan Maisky, the Soviet ambassador to London. And almost a hundred years later, it is a salutary lesson in the dangers of the establishment refusing to acknowledge ordinary people’s concerns when evaluating the causes of political upheaval.
Topic:: International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Russia and Global Focus

37. The Russian Gambit In Syria

Author:: Flemming Splidsboel Hansen
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Senior researcher and research coordinator Flemming Splidsboel Hansen explores Russia’s Syria agenda as part of a DIIS initiative to understand the geopolitics of nonwestern intervention in Syria. The Kremlin presents Russia’s political and military involvement in Syria as an unconditional success. Its overall aim of putting Russia firmly back on the geopolitical map has been met. It is now clear that the key to any negotiated settlement to the conflict in Syria lies in Moscow. Moreover, Russia now seems to be close to a position where it may dictate the composition of the future Syrian regime and, not least, decide whether Syrian president Bashar al-Assad will remain in the presidential palace or be forced into exile. The costs of the military operations have been acceptable to the Russian public. Defence observers estimate that the first year of military operations cost the Russian armed forces 65 bn Rubles (approximately one bn USD) and some 20 deaths (combat and non-combat). The financial costs may be partially offset by increased future weapons sales. There is a high probability, however, that Russia will find itself embroiled in a complicated sectarian conflict in Syria from which there is no easy exit. This would test Russian public support for the military involvement in Syria. Already now Russian media comments suggest some degree of frustration over the alleged lack of fighting capacity and will on part of the Syrian armed forces. The Russian public may want to see a plan for an orderly exit from Syria, and this puts pressure on the Kremlin to deliver. However, the Syrian regime may not be able to survive without Russian military support, and Russian policy-makers may therefore soon be facing difficult choices.
Topic:: International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Russia and Syria

38. We Are Relevant, Influential and Respected

Author:: Sergey Ryabkov and Armen Oganesyan
Publication Date:: 04-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: To get down to the facts, in April, Russia’s BrICs presidency got off to a flying start. Within two and a half months, a number of major BrICs related events took place in Russia. Furthermore, a major nonproliferation forum took place, a review conference in new York from late April until late May. this event is held once every five years. and I should also mention perhaps a series of very important, intense and constructive contacts at the top and other levels with the leaders of Latin american countries. This sets the current year apart from the previous year and the year 2013.
Topic:: Economics, Human Welfare, International Security, and Financial Markets
Political Geography:: Russia

39. Project 1704: A U.S. Army War College Analysis of Russian Strategy in Eastern Europe, an Appropriate U.S. Response, and the Implications for U.S. Landpower

Author:: Col. Douglas Mastriano
Publication Date:: 03-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: The strategic calculus changed in Europe with the 2014 Russian seizure of Crimea and its ongoing war against Ukraine. Compounding the dilemma of an aggressive Russia, is the application of ambiguity to create a clock of uncertainty that prevents a decisive response to counter its destabilizing activities. However, this application of ambiguity is easily defeated, if nations are willing to take concerted efforts now to preempt and deter further Russian aggression. Project 1704 provides an honest assessment of the tenuous strategic environment that now envelopes Eastern Europe and offers specific recommendations on how to continue the 70 years of unparalleled peace that most of Europe has enjoyed.
Topic:: Politics, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and Crimea

40. One Hundred Years’ War for the Right to Remain Russia

Author:: A. Ageev
Publication Date:: 03-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: In the last quarter of a century, it has become clear that neither great powers nor small and average states nor even the United States are happy with international chaos. No wonder, there is a (still latent) desire to move to a new international horizon of confidence and predictable behavior of all subjects of international relations. This is hardly surprising since in the last few years the world has been facing the unpredictable United States, the mightiest of international subjects, which has imposed on mankind a choice between a new world order and a worldwide military catastrophe. Is there a force strong enough to offer an alternative to the slipping into an abyss of hopelessness and initiate adequate measures? Which country except Putin’s Russia can shoulder the burden? Has the world found itself at the threshold of another Cold War which offers no choice but a third world war?
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Cold War, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Russia and United States

41. Breaking the Nordic Defense Deadlock

Author:: Stefan Forss and Col. (Ret) Pekka Holopainen
Publication Date:: 02-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: The Nordic states, just as other regions of Europe which neighbor Russia, are engaged in an urgent reexamination of their security and defense posture. Events in Ukraine in early-2014 threw into sharp focus a local lack of capability following decades of drawdowns and focus on crisis management operations instead of territorial defense. After an unpleasant awakening, countries in the region have turned their attention to the heightened security risks they face and their lack of preparedness for them.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, International Security, Military Strategy, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: Russia

42. Understanding the North Korean Nuclear Threat

Publication Date:: 05-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Arms Control Association
Abstract:: As the 2015 Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference continues in New York, the international community's failure to halt the spread of nuclear weapons to North Korea looms large. Unlike the four of the world's nine nuclear-weapon states that have shown some progress in reducing their nuclear arsenals, North Korea is working hard to expand its arsenal and make it more credible. Unlike six of the nine, which have either ratified the 1996 Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty or maintained a testing moratorium since the treaty was concluded, North Korea has conducted three underground nuclear tests, the only state to do so during the last 17 years. Unlike the three nuclear-weapon states that never became parties to the NPT, North Korea signed the treaty, declared it was withdrawing, later pledged to denuclearize, and then reneged on its commitment. The North's nuclear program today is out of control and accelerating, damaging both the NPT and international stability. Addressing this grim reality begins with an objective assessment of North Korea's actual nuclear capabilities and an acknowledgment that the Obama administration's "strategic patience" approach is not working. Washington and Beijing must step up their efforts to revive the six-party process with the near-term goal of freezing Pyongyang's nuclear and missile programs, taking care to manage potential spoilers, Russia and the U.S. Congress.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, International Security, Political stability, Nonproliferation, Denuclearization, and Nuclear Energy
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, and North Korea

43. Putins informations warfare in Ukraine

Author:: Maria Snegovaya
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:: Russia has been using an advanced form of hybrid warfare in Ukraine since early 2014 that relies heavily on an element of information warfare that the Russians call “reflexive control.” Reflexive control causes a stronger adversary voluntarily to choose the actions most advantageous to Russian objectives by shaping the adversary’s perceptions of the situation decisively. Moscow has used this technique skillfully to persuade the U.S. and its European allies to remain largely passive in the face of Russia’s efforts to disrupt and dismantle Ukraine through military and non-military means. The West must become alert to the use of reflexive control techniques and find ways to counter them if it is to succeed in an era of hybrid war.
Topic:: Intelligence and International Security
Political Geography:: Russia

44. Ukraine’s relations with Russia, the EU and the US: The background, the current crisis and what must be done

Author:: Volodymyr Dubovyk
Publication Date:: 05-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:: Since the beginning of Euromaidan (Maidan II), Ukraine finds itself entangled in a deep crisis, which, while not necessarily existential, dramatically alters the country’s internal dynamics and international positioning vis-à-vis its neighbors and other significant regional and global players. To handle this crisis, Ukraine must find the right method of dealing with international players, especially the Russian Federation, the European Union and the United States of America. Ukraine should take certain actions against the new super-assertive and aggressive Russia. The European Union unquestionably has provided significant aid to Ukraine during these turbulent times. However, there remains great potential for cooperation, and questions linger regarding whether the EU is prepared to foot the bill for pulling Ukraine’s economy away from the brink indefinitely. Finally, the United States should by all means continue doing its good work in bringing attention to the situation in and around Ukraine in a variety of ways, including multilateral venues, unilateral initiatives, and bilateral frameworks. The fact that Ukraine is located in Europe does not make this crisis a mere European problem but a conflict with global repercussions.
Topic:: International Relations, International Political Economy, International Security, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and European Union

45. The Crimean conundrum: What has happened and what to expect in the future

Author:: Oleksandr Fisun
Publication Date:: 05-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:: The Russian annexation of the Crimean peninsula represents a radical transformation of the system of international security on the European continent and in the wider context of the postwar “Yalta system” of interstate boundaries and their guarantees by major international players. The most important takeaway is that for the first time since World War II, one of the founders of the Yalta system of international boundaries has considered it within the realm of possibility to revisit its provisions by directly augmenting its own territory. This paper aims to analyze the outcomes of Russia’s annexation of Crimea, the features of the newly formed regional political regime in Crimea, the role of Crimea in contemporary Ukrainian politics, as well as to present scenarios for the development of the geopolitical situation surrounding the “Crimean issue” in the context of the possible actions that primary geopolitical players may take.
Topic:: International Relations, International Organization, International Security, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Crimea

46. Ukraine As A Buffer Zone? History Lessons For The New Geopolitics Of Eurasia

Author:: Thomas Graham, Rajan Menon, and Jack Snyder
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:: Amidst calls for containing an assertive Russia, politicians and pundits have been debating whether Ukraine should serve as a “buffer zone” between the Russian and Western spheres of influence. Based on a survey of the history of buffer zones in Ukraine and elsewhere, we argue that buffer strategies are most likely to succeed in promoting international stability when three mutually reinforcing conditions obtain. First, the buffer state has the material strength, defensible geography, and social cohesiveness necessary to resist penetration, annexation, or partition. Second, states that may contemplate using war as a means to annex or dominate the buffer zone anticipate high risks and costs. Buffers survive when flanking powers are relatively weak, satisfied, skeptical that “offense is the best defense,” and chary of commitments to reckless allies and clients. Third, whether the major powers have agreed, implicitly or explicitly, on rules to regulate their rivalry in the buffer region may also affect the likelihood of a collision. Based on these findings, we are doubtful that Ukraine can serve as a reliable buffer.
Topic:: International Relations, International Organization, International Security, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Russia and Ukraine

47. The Challenge of Crimea for Russia’s Domestic and Foreign Policy

Author:: Sergei Markedonov
Publication Date:: 05-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:: Following a period of 22 years as a part of independent Ukraine, the Crimean peninsula entered into Russian custody in the form of two separate subjects of the Federation. This event constitutes a watershed in Russian domestic policy and relations between Russia and other countries and also poses a serious challenge to security throughout Europe. The Russian government would do well to forestall their emergence, not by exerting force, but rather by raising the quality of infrastructure and resolving other social problems. Thus the acquisition of Crimea, for Russia, is not the “end of history,” but the beginning of a complex process of integrating not merely the territory, but more importantly, the peninsula’s inhabitants.
Topic:: International Relations, International Security, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Crimea

48. Ukraine in Contemporary Geopolitical and Socioeconomic Relations

Author:: Grigoriy Shamborovskyi
Publication Date:: 05-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:: This paper explores topics related to Ukraine’s Relations with Russia, the EU, and the US. These relationships are explored in terms of international trade, security issues and institution building. Finally, the existence of internal political and socioeconomic divisions is discussed.
Topic:: International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, International Security, and Political and institutional effectiveness
Political Geography:: Russia, America, Ukraine, and European Union

49. Crimea: Its Politics, Economy, and Resources

Author:: Yulia Tyshchenko
Publication Date:: 05-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:: This article examines certain questions and challenges pertaining to the Russian Federation’s illegal annexation of Crimea in the domains of security and the violation of both property rights and human rights, abuses of which are systemic in the region. The issues I will discuss, pertaining to the illegal nationalization of private and state property in the annexed region of Ukraine, are problems that entangle the Russian Federation in complex land relations, which have the potential to fuel conflict. This article examines human rights violations linked with the annexation of the Crimea. Problems have arisen concerning the persecution of different ethnic and national groups—namely, Crimean Tatars and Ukrainians—by Crimean and Russian authorities. Currently, both Ukraine and the international community lack significant opportunities to influence Crimea’s politics and economy.
Topic:: Political Violence, Human Rights, International Political Economy, and International Security
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Crimea

50. Russia's Counterinsurgency in North Caucasus: Performance and Consequence

Author:: Ariel Dr. Cohen
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: The North Caucasus region has been a source of instability for the past several centuries. Most recently, Chechen aspirations to achieve full independence after the break-up of the Soviet Union led to two disastrous wars. While the active phase of the Chechen conflict ended in 2000 – more than a decade ago—the underlying social, economic, and political issues of the region remain. A low-level insurgency continues to persist in the North Caucasus region, with occasional terrorist attacks in the Russian heartland. There are few reasons to expect any substantial improvement in the situation for years to come. Chechnya functions as a de facto independent entity; Islamist influence in Dagestan is growing, terror attacks continue, and the rest of the North Caucasus requires massive presence of Russian security services to keep the situation under control. Preventing the North Caucasus from slipping back into greater instability requires tackling corruption, cronyism, discrimination, and unemployment—something the Kremlin has so far not been very willing to do. “Small wars” in the Caucasus resonated as far away as Boston, MA, and more international attention and cooperation is necessary to prevent the region from blowing up.
Topic:: Political Violence, Politics, War, International Security, Self Determination, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: Russia, Soviet Union, Chechnya, and North Caucasus

51. Chinese Dream, Others' Nightmare? Despite superficial similarities, China is not destined to follow Russia's path to rogue-dom

Author:: Jyrki Kallio
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Although China's statements about the Ukrainian crisis have been weighed very carefully, there are concerns that China is drawing lessons such as 'might is right' and 'geopolitics is all that matters' from the crisis. The hawks in China have adopted a similar tone to that of the Kremlin, with both wishing to see a relatively diminished Western influence in the international arena. The Chinese Dream is all about national rejuvenation, which entails redressing past grievances. Nevertheless, the Dream need not turn into a nightmare for other powers. The increase in China's military budget does not indicate growing ambitions of a global power projection. China's primary concern remains stability both within and without its borders.
Topic:: International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Ukraine, and Asia

52. Divided Stands the Visegrad? The V4 have been united towards the Ukraine crisis but remain split concerning Russia

Author:: András Rácz
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The destabilization of Ukraine and the possible escalation of the crisis have presented a direct security risk to the Visegrad countries - Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary - particularly concerning military security, the potential interruption of energy transit, and the possible influx of refugees. These factors have forced the Visegrad states to show unprecedented unity and activism in addressing the crisis. However, regarding the possibility of sanctioning Russia, the Visegrad Group is unable to take a joint position. The main reason for this is that Russia does not pose a direct military threat to the region. Consequently the individual policies of the Visegrad countries towards Russia are defined by a constellation of geopolitical concerns, normative motivations, business interests and domestic political ambitions, which are decidedly different in all four cases. Domestic political motivations, such as the will to increase domestic legitimacy, and concerns over the economic effects of sanctions, obviously influence the foreign policy actions of the Visegrad governments. However, Viktor Orbán of Hungary was the only one to break the Visegrad solidarity on Ukraine with his domestically-motivated remarks in May 2014 and demanding autonomy for Hungarians living in the Trans-Carpathian region. As most normative, business and domestic political motivations are of a lasting strategic nature, it is highly likely that the general incoherence of the Visegrad region regarding Russia will prevail.
Topic:: Security, Politics, and International Security
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Poland

53. Foreign Fighters in Syria

Author:: Richard Barrett
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: Over 12,000 fighters from at least 81 countries have joined the civil war in Syria, and the numbers continue to grow. Around 2,500 are from Western countries, including most members of the European Union, the United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. There are also several hundred from Russia. But the great majority are from the Arab World. Most are fighting with rebel groups, and increasingly with the most extreme among them; but many are also fighting with the Government, or with ethnic or faith communities that are trying to protect themselves from both sides. A lot are young, often teenagers, and a fair percentage of those arriving from non-Muslim majority countries are converts to Islam. These and others who share their faith commonly express their motivation as a religious obligation to protect fellow Muslims from attack. This sense of duty is captured by their loose use of the word 'jihad'.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, and International Security
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Europe, Middle East, Canada, Arabia, Australia, Syria, and New Zealand

54. Five Long-Term Challenges for NATO beyond the Ukraine Crisis

Author:: Karl-Heinz Kamp
Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: NATO Defense College
Abstract:: Moscow's aggression against Ukraine has truly been a “game changer” for the Atlantic Alliance. Its implications for NATO's further evolution can hardly be over-estimated and after the likely shoot-down of a Malaysian civil aircraft over Ukrainian territory, controlled by pro-Russian rebels, the situation is even more unpredictable. Even if the catastrophe has put heavy political pressure on President Putin to reduce Russian involvement in Ukraine, Moscow is still not likely to revert the annexation of the Crimean peninsula. As a result, the crisis will dominate the international security debate for a long time to come. Thus, signs of resolve directed at Russia, measures to reassure the NATO members in Eastern Europe and indications of further cooperation with Ukraine will rank very high on the agenda of the NATO summit in Wales in September 2014. With the draw-down of the operation in Afghanistan, some Allies tend to see NATO's future role as primarily to preserve the territorial integrity of its member states. Hence, they argue in favour of a “back to basics” approach with an Alliance concentrated on its defence mission, according to Article 5 of the Washington Treaty.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, and International Security
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Malaysia, Ukraine, Asia, and Moscow

55. International Shifts and Their Security Impact on the Gulf: Key Trends and Key Numbers

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: I have been asked to help set the stage for this conference by looking at the broader issues that can address the issue of A World with No Axis? International Shifts and their Impact on the Gulf. I have spent enough time in the Gulf over the years to know how often people have strong opinions, interesting conspiracy theories, and a tendency to ignore hard numbers and facts. We all suffer from the same problems, but today I'm going to focus as much on f act s and numbers as possible. I'm only going to select only a portion of the key trends and numbers involved in my oral remarks , but I will leave the conference with a much longer paper that lists a fuller range of such data. This paper that will also be on the CSIS web site, along with a series of very detailed papers on the military balance in the Gulf. If you want to provide me with your card, I'll also make sure the papers involved are sent to your directly.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, International Security, and Governance
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Middle East, Arabia, and Qatar

56. Assessing a Deal or Non-deal with Iran: The Critical Issue of Iran's Progress in Weapons Research, Development, and Production Capability.

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: It now seems unlikely that the P5+1 countries of the United States, Russia, China, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany can reach a comprehensive agreement with Iran by the end of November. A final agreement remains a possibility, but it seems far more likely that if an agreement is not reached, the negotiations will be extended rather than abandoned all together. The question then arises as to how to judge the outcome of this set of negotiations, be it an actual agreement, an extension, or the collapse of the negotiations.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, International Security, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, China, United Kingdom, Iran, France, and Germany

57. Conventional Arms Control in Europe and Related Regional Security Concerns

Author:: Isabelle Francois
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Conventional arms control in Europe remains relevant more than two decades after the singing of the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty (CFE). Today, it could serve as a useful vehicle for collaboration with Russia on a broad range of security issues, and productive movement forward would also do much to reassure and secure smaller NATO allies and regional partners. Ultimately, what is needed is a paradigm shift away from "mutual assured destruction" and towards a concept of "mutual assured stability."
Topic:: NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and International Security
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Asia

58. Combining Realism with Vision Options for NATO's new Strategic Concept

Author:: Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:: 05-2010
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Elaborating a Strategic Concept is a delicate undertaking which implies a good deal of resolve, far - sightedness, and realism. Allies should neither search for a new North Star nor give in to the temptation of de facto acceptance of the status quo as the optimal solution. Instead, they should make choices reflecting a synthesis, not just a list, of their security priorities. In particular, they should consider the future of the allied deterrence and defence strategies in a security environment characterised by significant political and technological changes, including by thinking about steps towards withdrawing US nuclear weapons in Europe and creating an integrated missile defence system; learn the lessons from the Balkans and Afghanistan and accord greater priority to stabilisation than to rapid reaction capabilities; recognise that compromises will be inevitable if they are serious about considering Russia as a partner, and start by pausing for a while with enlargement. Allies should also make it clear that they have no ambition of turning NATO into a world gendarme and shift towards cooperative crisis management.
Topic:: NATO, Treaties and Agreements, and International Security
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Russia, United States, and Europe

59. Russia and its 'New Security Architecture' in Europe: A Critical Examination of the Concept

Author:: Andrey S. Makarychev
Publication Date:: 02-2009
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: The paper first summarises Russia's present critique of the international security architecture and its aspiration to build something new and better. The author then presents a matrix of four models of international society as a framework within which to try and discern what Russia may be seeking. While it is clear that Russia objects to one of these models, that of a unipolar US-led world, its current foreign policy discourse and actions offer no clear guidance as to what its aims are in this regard, as there are confusions and contradictions in the different elements of official Russian discourse.
Topic:: Foreign Policy and International Security
Political Geography:: Russia and Europe

60. NATO at 60: A Hollow Alliance

Author:: Ted Galen Carpenter
Publication Date:: 03-2009
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: As the North Atlantic Treaty Organization celebrates its 60th birthday, there are mounting signs of trouble within the alliance and reasons to doubt the organization's relevance regarding the foreign policy challenges of the 21st century. Several developments contribute to those doubts. Although NATO has added numerous new members during the past decade, most of them possess minuscule military capabilities. Some of them also have murky political systems and contentious relations with neighboring states, including (and most troubling) a nuclear-armed Russia. Thus, NATO's new members are weak, vulnerable, and provocative—an especially dangerous combination for the United States in its role as NATO's leader.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, and International Security
Political Geography:: Russia and North Atlantic

61. Euro-Atlantic Security: One Vision, Three Paths

Author:: Piin-Fen Kok
Publication Date:: 06-2009
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: EastWest Institute
Abstract:: The Euro-Atlantic security scene is characterized by a loss of mutual confidence, renewed tensions, and serious disagreements regarding not only practices but principles. Those trends, if not corrected, will produce negative strategic consequences for the security of Europe. New opportunities have emerged today for rethinking the security situation in the Euro-Atlantic region, for strengthening confidence, changing mutual relations, and, if need be, institutions. A basis for this can be found in the hopes for improved U.S.- Russian relations expressed by U.S. President Barack Obama, in the initiative by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on reforming the European security architecture, as well as in the process of elaboration of the new NATO strategic concept.
Topic:: International Relations, NATO, and International Security
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, and Europe

62. Fugitive Serbian War Criminals and the West

Author:: François Clemenceau
Publication Date:: 01-2008
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: European Affairs
Institution:: The European Institute
Abstract:: The two main Serbian war criminals have been protected by the diplomatic goals of the main powers, which were courting Serbia. Europeans wanted to see Belgrade join the EU; Russia wanted to preserve a Slavic bloc; the U.S. deferred to Moscow. Justice lost out, according to this book, yet to be translated into English.
Topic:: International Law, International Organization, War, and International Security
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Europe, Moscow, and Serbia

63. NUCLEAR FUEL BANKS: Moscow, Washington to Lead on "Mergers"

Author:: Danila Bochkarev
Publication Date:: 07-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EastWest Institute
Abstract:: The United States and Russia are still the giants of nuclear power, accounting for more than half the world's enriched uranium production. Twenty-five percent of the world's nuclear power plants are found in the United States and half of those power plants use Russian uranium. Russian nuclear fuel now constitutes 10 percent of the U.S. power generation mix. The interdependence arising from existing trade in nuclear fuel points toward a natural partnership.
Topic:: International Cooperation, National Security, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and International Security
Political Geography:: Russia and United States

64. The Wider Black Sea Region in the 21st Century: Strategic, Economic and Energy Perspectives

Author:: Daniel Hamilton and Gerhard Mangott
Publication Date:: 01-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Transatlantic Relations
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation and International Security
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia

65. The UK Contribution to the G8 Global Partnership Against the Spread of Weapons of Mass Destruction, 2002-06

Author:: Paul Cornish
Publication Date:: 01-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Chatham House
Abstract:: The G8 Global Partnership Against the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction was established at the G8 summit meeting in Kananaskis, Canada in June 2002. The Kananaskis summit produced a new prescription for international cooperation in non-proliferation. The 'ten plus ten over ten' formula was intended to provide the means for tighter control over chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) weapons and materials, initially in Russia and then elsewhere, and particularly to prevent terrorist acquisition of such devices and technologies. In the founding document of the Global Partnership, the 'Statement by G8 Leaders', the following were listed as 'among our priority concerns': the destruction of chemical weapons; the dismantlement of decommissioned nuclear submarines; the disposal of fissile materials; and finding alternative employment for former weapons scientists. The UK government had been contributing to work in this field for several years before Kananaskis, and has been a leading participant in the G8 Global Partnership since its inception.
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and International Security
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Japan, United Kingdom, Europe, Canada, and Asia

66. Dismantling the DPRK’s Nuclear Weapons Program: A Practicable, Verifiable Plan of Action

Author:: David Albright and Corey Hinderstein
Publication Date:: 01-2006
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Science and International Security
Abstract:: Verified dismantlement of the nuclear weapons program of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) can be accomplished successfully. Although difficulties abound in reaching an agreement with the DPRK to achieve this goal, the methods and steps involved in the dismantlement process are well understood. Because this goal remains vital to U.S. and international security, the United States has joined with China, Japan, Russia, and South Korea in working toward verified denuclearization of the Korean peninsula with the cooperation of the DPRK. These six nations have launched a series of negotiations, called the Six-Party Talks, aimed at resolving the crisis over the DPRK’s nuclear program. These nations are also attempting to create a plan to dismantle the DPRK’s program in a manner with which all the nations can feel secure.
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons, International Security, and Disarmament
Political Geography:: Russia, Japan, China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America

67. Facing the Terrorist Challenge - Central Asia's Role in Regional and International Co-operation - Study Groups: Regional Stability in Central Asia Security Sector Reform

Author:: Anja H. Ebnöther, Ernst M. Felberbauer, and Martin Malek
Publication Date:: 04-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Austrian National Defence Academy
Abstract:: After the collapse of the Soviet Union the five Central Asian former Soviet Republics (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) appeared as one region. Though it is scientifically debatable if “Central Asia” consists of only these five stat es or if others should be included as well (e.g. Afghanistan, Mongolia), my findings will basically deal with the five former Soviet Central Asian republics – sometimes, where appropriate, with references to adjacent countries.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, Terrorism, and International Security
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Middle East, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Asia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS