Political Geography: Middle East / Publication Year: within 25 Years / Topic: Treaties and Agreements

1. Politicization, Ratification of International Agreements, and Domestic Political Competition in Non-Democracies: The Case of Iran and the Paris Climate Accords

Author:: Reşat Bayer and Bijan Tafazzoli
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: While some degree of competition is present in many authoritarian regimes, the implications of such controlled competition on international issues have not received much consideration, including towards international environmental accords. We attempt to rectify this through a framework where we focus on internal political competition in a hybrid, nondemocratic system where national elections are held regularly. Specifically, we argue that the presence of multiple actors competing in elections in nondemocratic settings results in them assuming positions on various issues, justifying their positions, and attempting to mobilize their supporters with considerable implications for international environmental policies. We display our argument in the context of Iranian debates on the ratification of the Paris Climate Accords. Our findings demonstrate that the competing Iranian sides rely on different justifications for their environmental positions, resulting in extensive (negative) competitions of rhetoric where the international dimension emerges as an important feature in the internal competition. Overall, we show that political competition within non-democracies is likely to add to the complexity of international (environmental) negotiations and cooperation.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Politics, Treaties and Agreements, Sanctions, Authoritarianism, Elections, Paris Agreement, Narrative, and Regime Survival
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

2. IMPLICATIONS OF THE SAUDI-IRAN DEAL FOR YEMEN

Author:: Marta Furlan
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:: In 2014, the Houthis, a Zaydi Shia armed group from the Sa’ada region of northern Yemen, aligned with former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who had been removed following the Arab Spring uprisings. Together, they defeated the government led by President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi, and established control over the Yemeni capital of Sana’a and the entirety of northern Yemen. At that time, Iran began to progressively increase its support for the Houthis, seeing partnership with the group as an opportunity to advance its revisionist agenda in the region and establish its influence in the southern Red Sea, an area of immense strategic significance. Threatened by aggressive Iranian expansionism at its doorstep, in March 2015, Saudi Arabia entered the war alongside Hadi. As Iran sided with the Houthis and Saudi Arabia sided with Hadi, Yemen became the battlefield of both a domestic competition for power between different local factions and a regional competition for influence between Teheran and Riyadh.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, Syrian War, Houthis, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Syria

3. De-escalation Efforts: What Tehran wants from a prisoner swap deal with Washington?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: US National Security Council Spokesperson Adrienne Waston, in a statement on August 10, 2023, affirmed that Iran has released from prison five Americans who were detained and has placed them on house arrest. US citizens Siamak Namazi, Morad Tahbaz, Emad Shargi, and two others were released from Tehran’s notorious Evin prison to house arrest. The US official described their release as “an encouraging step” and stressed that Washigton will continue efforts to bring them “all back home in the United States.”
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Sanctions, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

4. A Bid to Contain Pressure: What are the motives behind Iranian President's East Africa tour?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi went on a trip to Africa from July 11 to 13, 2023, during which he visited Kenya, Uganda, and Zimbabwe on invitations from the leaders of the three countries, President William Ruto, Yoweri Museveni and President Emmerson Mnangagwa, respectively. Raisi led a high-level delegation including First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, Health Minister Behrouz Aghaei, and Minister of Agriculture Seyyed Javad Sadati Nejad, and several other high-ranking officials and businessmen.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Treaties and Agreements, Partnerships, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Uganda, Kenya, Iran, Middle East, Zimbabwe, and East Africa

5. Second Meeting in Beijing: China-Facilitated Iran-Saudi diplomatic reconciliation efforts amid US apprehensions

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: On April 6, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and his Saudi Arabian counterpart, Faisal bin Farhan Al-Saud, signed a joint statement in Beijing announcing the resumption of diplomatic relations between the two countries, which follows a tripartite agreement signed under China's auspices on March 10.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, Reconciliation, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: China, Iran, Middle East, Asia, Saudi Arabia, and United States of America

6. Baghdad and Erbil: A difficult road to settling differences

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The relationship between Baghdad and Erbil lately has reached a dead end. The rift between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), the official executive body of the autonomous Kurdistan Region of northern Iraq, and the Federal Government of Iraq (FGI) has, for the past few months, entered a bottleneck driven by political turmoil and rotating governments. But efforts are being made on both sides to bridge differences. On January 11, a Kurdish delegation headed by Masrour Barzani visited the central government in Baghdad to discuss a number of disputed files. The group included several senior officials: ministers for electricity and finance; chief of the cabinet office; director of the office of the region's prime minister; ministers for planning and oil; economic advisors; general counsel; director of border control; and CEO of State Organization for Marketing of Oil (SOMO Oil).
Topic:: Oil, Treaties and Agreements, Budget, Gas, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI)

7. Iran-Saudi and China Trilateral Agreement: Reshaping the Global World Order

Author:: Rana Eijaz Ahmad, Mahnoor Mansoor, and Muhammad Sajid
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: This research paper explains the changing global world order under the leadership of China. The qualitative method with secondary sources describes the Chinese struggle for peace and interdependence in the post-Covid-19 era, maligned with the Russia-Ukraine war and American support to Ukraine under the banner of NATO. The theory of meditated realism (a third kind of realism, which results from contemplation and introspection, which leads to being proactive instead of reactive.) is used in the paper to explain the trilateral agreement. China is heading towards more alliances and agreements with Brazil, India, Russia, and South Africa. It is reshaping the global world order and striving to replace the dollar with the yuan. It may start a new financial war between China and the U.S.
Topic:: NATO, Treaties and Agreements, and Realism
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Iran, Middle East, Asia, and Saudi Arabia

8. Prospects for Saudi Arabia-Israel Normalization

Author:: Alistair Taylor, Martin Indyk, Sanam Vakil, and Bilal Y. Saab
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: On this week's episode, MEI's Editor-In-Chief Alistair Taylor discusses the Biden administration’s push to reach a normalization accord between Saudi Arabia and Israel with Martin Indyk, Sanam Vakil, and Bilal Saab. While there are plenty of potential hurdles to reaching a deal — including Saudi Arabia’s steep demands, Israel’s far-right government, and challenging domestic politics here in the US — if done right, the potential geopolitical ramifications could be substantial.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, Geopolitics, Domestic Politics, Far Right, and Normalization
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Saudi Arabia

9. Border Nation: The Reshaping of the Syrian-Turkish Borderlands

Author:: Armenak Tokmajyan and Kheder Khaddour
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The Turkish-Syrian border is divided into separate areas of control—under the Syrian Democratic Forces in northeast Syria, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham in Idlib, and Turkey in several cantons—which sustain contradictory political projects. Yet these border areas constitute a single political-security ecosystem, one connected to southern Turkey and regime-held Syria. As such, only a peace agreement that treats the border areas as an indivisible whole and delimits the major powers’ zones of influence can lead to a stable long-term arrangement.
Topic:: Security, Politics, Treaties and Agreements, Borders, and Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

10. Saudi Arabia’s Engagement in the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process

Author:: Ksenia Svetlova
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: During the last few decades Saudi Arabia had exercised a role of a regional coordinator between various Middle Eastern states and between them and the USA. Twice in the past it had put on the table a peace initiative that was aimed at finding an acceptable solution for Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and both times these initiatives didn’t take off for various reasons. The reality of the Arab spring and Iran domination, as well as the rise of the crown-prince Muhammad Bin-Salman and Abraham accords had radically altered the regional dynamic, and during the last few years Saudi Arabia moved closer to Israel, especially since it became more preoccupied with Iranian threat and domestic reforms. How can Saudi Arabia facilitate peace or contribute for peace-making between Israel and Palestinians, openly or behind the scenes, and what needs to happen first to allow this scenario?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Treaties and Agreements, Peace, and Abraham Accords
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Saudi Arabia

11. The Abraham Accords, Two Years On: Impressive Progress, Multiple Challenges, and Promising Potential

Author:: Meir Ben-Shabbat and David Aaronson
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Broad economic relations, high-level policy meetings, and developing tourism ties: two years after the historic Abraham Accords were signed, the relations between Israel and the four states have flowered. At the same time, the potential of these relations is far from realized, the challenges remain, and Jerusalem should commit itself to strengthen the Accords – and even to expand them
Topic:: Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, and Gulf Nations

12. Seven Myths about the “Historic” Israel-Lebanon Maritime Border Agreement

Author:: Michael Doran
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: Commentators in the United States and Israel have hailed the agreement on the maritime border between Israel and Lebanon, which the Biden administration recently brokered, as a great success. They liken it to the Abraham Accords and claim that it is a major step toward normalizing relations between the Jewish State and a historic Arab foe. But a close examination of the agreement simply does not support this view. Amos Hochstein, the US State Department senior advisor for energy security, led the mediation effort to resolve this dispute. He built on the initiatives of Presidents Barack Obama and Donald Trump to reconcile the conflicting claims of Israel, which claimed Line 1 (see map) as the northern border of its exclusive economic zone (EEZ), and Lebanon, which claimed Line 23 as its southern border. In the final months of the Trump administration, Lebanese negotiators revised their claim, moving it further south to Line 29. Beirut, however, never registered this new claim with the United Nations. In other words, Line 23 always remained the official Lebanese position. When Hochstein arrived in Beirut last February, the Lebanese government abruptly dropped its insistence on Line 29 and presented its retreat as a sign of its flexibility, a compromise proposal that it could withdraw if the negotiations failed to produce satisfactory results.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Terrorism, Treaties and Agreements, Territorial Disputes, and Borders
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

13. Three Presidents, Three Flawed Iran Policies, and the Path Ahead

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: News reports of a nearing breakthrough in the Iran nuclear talks will trigger sighs of relief, but the deal will likely prove disappointing on many fronts. With Russia’s horrific onslaught against Ukraine, news reports of a likely breakthrough in the Iran nuclear talks will trigger sighs of relief. But sadly, that relief will be misplaced. U.S. negotiators have already admitted that the forthcoming deal will not match the nonproliferation achievements of the 2015 agreement, and no official has even hinted that the revised text will either penalize Iran for its flagrant violation of its commitments or address the range of problems that have emerged since the original deal was reached. In this Policy Note, Washington Institute executive director Robert Satloff delivers a powerful, bipartisan critique, assessing how and why three successive American presidents started their terms with sound ideas on Iran and leverage to advance them but accepted either flawed agreements or America’s own isolation. Looking beyond a new Iran deal, he proposes an urgent agenda: scrupulous enforcement; a renewed push for a “longer, stronger” agreement; early preparation for the day after restrictions expire; close coordination with regional partners to counter Iran’s rising influence; and outreach to the Iranian people, who will see little benefit from the windfall in sanctions relief likely coming to Tehran. American leadership, determination, and resilience, he notes, will be essential.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Negotiation, and JCPOA
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

14. Partnership Priorities with the EU – What (If Anything) Is Israel Missing?

Author:: Maya Sion-Tzidkiyahu
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: Among European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) countries, Israel has enjoyed the most advanced relations with the European Union (EU). This comes as no surprise, as it is a viable liberal democratic country with a free and vibrant economy leading in innovation and many other fields. Yet, since 2016, Southern and Eastern neighbourhood countries signed Partnership Priorities agreements with the EU, while Israel didn’t. This paper describes what Partnership Priorities are, why Israel hasn’t signed a Partnership Priorities agreement so far, and asks what Israel is missing out on by lacking an established set of Partnership Priorities with the EU.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, European Union, and Partnerships
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

15. Europol-Israel Police Operational Agreement: Enhanced cooperation with EU in combatting crime and terrorism

Author:: Maya Sion-Tzidkiyahu
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: The Israeli Police and Europol, the European Union’s police agency, have been conducting negotiations over an operational agreement for several years. In September there was signing of end of negotiations, but in December the Council of the European Union decided to re-open the talks. In a global world where crime and terrorism cross borders, countries need to strengthen cooperation among themselves. Such inter-police cooperation takes on a unique form in the EU. The operational agreement between Israel’s Police and Europol can have considerable importance in contributing to the parties’ ability to deal with terror and crime. This paper will review Europol, its cooperation with Israel’s police and other enforcement agencies, including the negotiated agreement, the motivations for upgrading relations with Israel and the benefits and challenges of doing so.
Topic:: Crime, International Cooperation, Terrorism, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Police, and Europol
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

16. Israel and Lebanon Conclude Maritime Agreement

Author:: Sara Nowacka and Michał Wojnarowicz
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: On 27 October, Israel and Lebanon, which do not have official relations, concluded an agreement with U.S. mediation on the maritime border of the two states and the exploitation of gas deposits. The agreement will serve to increase stability in the Eastern Mediterranean, although the direct benefits for Lebanon’s economy depend on an improvement in the political situation.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, Gas, Economy, Political stability, and Maritime
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

17. Reciprocal Pressures: Are Israel-Lebanon maritime border talks doomed to fail?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The future of talks between Israel and Lebanon on delineating a shared maritime border, mediated by US Special Envoy and Coordinator for International Energy Affairs, Amos Hochstein remains uncertain following an exchange of escalatory statements from Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah about the disputed Karish natural gas field. Both sides suggested that the tensions can escalate into an all-out war unless their conditions are met. However, Lebanese officials including President Michel Aoun stated that the negotiations to demarcate the border are in the final stages.
Topic:: Oil, Treaties and Agreements, Maritime, and Energy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

18. Stalling: Analysing Iran’s written response to EU nuclear deal draft

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: EU’s high representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, said on August 15 that both the EU and US were studying Iran’s written response and hoping to restore the tattered nuclear deal. There was no timeline given on when the world powers would respond, but Iran’s official media said Tehran expected a reply in two days.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Nonproliferation, and Nuclear Energy
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

19. Truce Expires as Internal Divisions Deepen – The Yemen Review, October 2022

Author:: Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: The truce between the internationally recognized government and the armed Houthi movement, in place since April, was allowed to expire without renewal on October 2. The UN-facilitated agreement engineered the longest period of relative peace of the war. September saw intensive negotiations to extend and expand the truce, and optimism was high throughout the month, but talks broke down when the Houthis made an eleventh-hour demand for the payment of additional military salaries. Efforts to revive the agreement continue, and talks continue over public sector salaries, the reopening of roads, and flights out of Sana’a airport. There was no major resumption of hostilities after the truce expired, though low-level clashes remain frequent. The Southern Transitional Council continues to expand its control in the south. Following last month’s battle for Shabwa, the group has begun a nominally counter-terrorist campaign against Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula in Abyan, and has engineered demonstrations and protests again the presence of Islah-affiliated forces in Hadramawt. Yemen’s dual currencies remained stable over the course of the month. The government continued its efforts to secure a long-promised funding package from UAE and Saudi Arabia, though the latter has now renewed an agreement to provide fuel for Yemen’s power plants. A fuel crisis in Houthi territory brought recriminations from both sides but was averted with the import of additional supplies. Seasonal rains in Yemen continue to cause massive flooding, which claimed a number of lives this month. The UN announced that it has secured enough pledged funds to begin the salvage of the FSO Safer, a deteriorating oil storage vessel posing a massive environmental risk in the Red Sea.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, Currency, Houthis, Armed Conflict, and Weather
Political Geography:: Middle East, Yemen, and Gulf Nations

20. Four Scenarios for the Iran Nuclear Deal

Author:: Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: After a hiatus of over five months, negotiations to restore the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, have finally resumed in Vienna. Struck in July 2015 by Iran and a group of six powers – France, Germany and the UK plus China, Russia and the US, as well as the EU (E3/EU+3)–, the JCPOA placed limits on Iranian nuclear activities, while also introducing a highly intrusive inspection regime by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The deal is in a comatose state due to former US President Donald Trump’s decision to unilaterally pull out of the agreement and re-adopt all sanctions on Iran in May 2018. In response, since May 2019 Iran has progressively reduced its compliance with its non-proliferation obligations under the deal.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Treaties and Agreements, Disarmament, Nonproliferation, Transatlantic Relations, and JCPOA
Political Geography:: Europe, Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

21. The First Months of Israel-UAE Peace: Israel’s Perspective on the Abraham Accords

Author:: Ksenia Svetlova
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: In the few months that have passed since the signing of the historical Abraham Accords, Israel and the UAE have opened embassies and exchanged ambassadors, launched direct flights between Tel Aviv and Abu Dhabi, hosted dozens of businesses, cultural and academic delegations (among them a high-ranking Emirati delegation led by the UAE ministers of finance and economy), and facilitated visits of thousands of Israeli tourists to Dubai. Universities and think tanks from both countries have established connections, and news outlets have launched different forms of cooperation. Israel, the UAE, and the US set an investment fund worth 3 billion USD (the fund is not operational yet) and banks on both sides established agreements on financial services. The scope of activity between the two countries is impressive, and it seems that in case of Israel and the UAE, the seeds of peace have fallen on fertile ground, mainly due to high level of economic development and mutual geopolitical interests and concerns, such as the Iranian threat (although both sides evaluate and treat it differently).Today, it is almost impossible to imagine that just a few years ago Israeli athletes were only allowed to compete in the UAE if they agreed to participate without their national flag or national anthem sung at the closing ceremony. Why is it that the peace between Israel and the UAE appears to be such a stark contrast from previous peace agreements that Israel has signed with other Arab countries? Several factors have facilitated the newly established relationship: the positive image of the UAE in Israel; the lack of past hostilities, casualties, and territorial demands between the two countries; the unofficial ties forged long before the official recognition; the many mutual interests that seem to be aligned together; and the right timing that allowed for this bold and important development. Will the parties be able to maintain a similar level of enthusiasm also when the honeymoon stage passes? How will the two countries deal with various regional and international challenges? This paper presents an Israeli perspective on the first months of the relationship between Israel and UAE, and looks at prospects for the near future of these relations.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, Economy, Peace, and Abraham Accords
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and UAE

22. The Concurrent Approach: Is Iran changing its policy regarding the nuclear deal?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, has proposed the possibility of settling disputes over the nuclear deal by adopting the ‘simultaneous’ approach, meaning that Iran will once again comply to the deal in return for US lifting sanctions imposed on it. On February 2, during his interview with CNN network, Zarif responded to the question by Christian Amanpour, about whether Iran is still demanding that the US act first, saying that the necessary steps can be synchronized. He also suggested the EU mediate to settle the disputes and remove any obstacles against Washington's return to the agreement. This may imply that Iran made early concessions in its position, regarding the adherence to strict conditions, similar to: the US returning to the agreement first, lifting sanctions and providing compensation for the losses incurred. However, these may not be major concessions impacting the general attitudes of the Iranian leadership, nor may they necessarily indicate Iran's intention to make significant changes in its policy regarding the nuclear deal. To be precise, this new approach announced by Zarif may simply be a tactical change in the Iranian policy aiming to enhance the access to understandings and to avoid early problems with the US administration, at a time when Iran appears to be in dire need of lifting US sanctions.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, Nuclear Power, Elections, and JCPOA
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

23. Tehran Signals: Uncovering the limitations of the Chinese Iranian agreement

Author:: Mervat Zakaria
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Uncovering the limitations of the Chinese Iranian agreement The Economic Cooperation Agreement signed between Iran and China in March 2021 unfolded a development plan that includes China injecting $ 400 billion into various sectors of the Iranian economy. This grants Tehran an opportunity to increase the pressures imposed on the new US administration, regarding resumption of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action held with the P5+1 in 2015, as well as confronting the surrounding regional threats and alleviating internal pressures by improving the Iranian standard of living.
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: China, Iran, Middle East, and Asia

24. Restoring the Balance: The economic and political motives for the 'New Mashriq' Project

Author:: Muthana Al-Obeidi
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The New Mashriq Plan, which was announced in the Baghdad tripartite summit (which brought together president Abdel-Fattah El-sisi of Egypt, King Abdullah II of Jordan, and the Iraqi prime minister, Mustafa al-Kadhimi), stimulated a lot of analyses, which reflected two opposing views. Some analysts seemed to be overly optimistic about the outcomes of this Iraqi-Egyptian-Jordanian project. On the other hand, others adopted a more skeptical, even pessimistic, attitude, believing that it will fail to achieve its purpose, on account of the many challenges it has to face. Despite all the analyses available about the project, questions are still being raised, such as: How did the project develop? What is its economic agenda? What about its political dimensions? And, last but not least, what will its future be like?
Topic:: Economics, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, Egypt, and Jordan

25. President Biden Has Five Options for Future Negotiations with Iran

Author:: Pat Shilo and Todd Rosenblum
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Third Way
Abstract:: President Biden has announced plans to re-engage with Iran on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran Nuclear Deal. In this paper, we briefly outline the five most likely pathways ahead, each of which has strengths and challenges: Return to the JCPOA as it was. Return to the JCPOA plus new commitments that address other security concerns with Iran. Restore the JCPOA as it was plus a set of confidence-building measures to address other security concerns. Formally link a requirement for Iran to address our other concerns as a pre-condition for further talks. Return to the pre-JCPOA Middle East, where US and allies work to rollback Iran’s nuclear program and actively deter its regional actions by confrontation, punishment, and isolating measures. Each path carries risk and opportunity for restoring American leadership in the world, and congressional Democrats should remember the perfect deal does not exist. Members of Congress would be wise to measure the next deal against the status quo ante: an unconstrained, belligerent Iran again racing to a bomb.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Military Strategy, Denuclearization, and JCPOA
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

26. Morocco’s Normalization with Israel: The Party for Justice and Development (PJD)’s Reaction

Author:: Tiziana della Ragione
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In December 2020, following the Abraham Accords framework mediated by the United States, Morocco agreed to restore its official diplomatic ties with Israel after a 20-year break, and, in return, the Trump Administration recognized Morocco’s sovereignty over the long-disputed territory of Western Sahara. The initial steps to normalize Israeli-Moroccan ties followed quickly on the heels of the official announcements. On January 25, Israel’s liaison office reopened in Rabat while Morocco's diplomatic representation in Tel Aviv is expected to follow later this month, after the arrival to Israel of the Head of Morocco's diplomatic mission Abderrahim Beyyoud in February.[1] While the process for implementing the peace agreement between the two countries continues, with economic, cultural, and social collaborations, the Party for Justice and Development (PJD), the Moroccan Islamist ruling party, has faced criticism for its acquiescence to the Palace’s decision. By aligning itself with King Mohammed VI’s decision to normalize with Israel, the PJD has shown that it is more interested in preserving its good relations with the Palace and winning the King’s support for its domestic agenda of socio-economic reforms, than in taking a hard line on Palestine. During the PJD-led government of Abdelillah Benkirane (2012-2016), successful socio-economic reforms led to its attaining an additional 18 parliamentary seats in the October 2016 elections, reinforcing its position as the largest party in parliament. In muting its criticism of the normalization process, PJD is preserving its position in the political arena and focusing on its socio-economic agenda, which it sees as the key to its success. However, in doing so, the PJD risks alienating a portion of its constituency, which may view its silence in defense of Palestine as a form of ideological betrayal.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, and Political Parties
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North Africa, and Morocco

27. The UAE and Israel: Developing Relations and the Challenge Ahead

Author:: Paul Rivlin
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In this issue of Iqtisadi, Paul Rivlin discusses the developing economic ties between the United Arab Emirates and Israel with an emphasis on investments in the energy sector. In April 2021, the Israeli firm Delek Drilling announced plans to sell its 22 percent direct stake in the Tamar gas field to investors led by the Abu Dhabi based state-owned Mubadala Petroleum for $1.1 billion. The Tamar field has an estimated 297 billion cubic meters (bcm) of reserves. This would be by far the largest commercial deal yet between Israel and the UAE. Mubadala Petroleum is a wholly owned subsidiary of Abu Dhabi state investor, Mubadala Investment Company. Its plans to move into Israel’s upstream gas sector have the backing of the UAE and Israeli governments. In March 2021, the UAE announced the establishment of a $10 billion fund to invest in energy and other strategic sectors of the Israeli economy. According to the official statement, the UAE will invest in and with Israel in sectors including energy, manufacturing, water, space, healthcare, and agro-tech. The investment fund will support development initiatives to promote regional economic cooperation between the two countries. Funding will come from government and private sector institutions and the Delek deal is part of this framework,
Topic:: Energy Policy, Treaties and Agreements, and Economy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United Arab Emirates

28. The EU-MENA Partnership: Time for a Reset

Author:: Marc Otte
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The storm raging across the Southern Neighbourhood, as the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is also known in European terminology, is not about to subside any time soon. Beyond crisis management, current dysfunctions need a long-term, sustained and transformative approach. That was the spirit of the Barcelona Declaration and the original concept of the European neighbourhood policy. Obviously, it didn’t work as expected. The question is why, and how to put the train back on the tracks.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Middle East, and North Africa

29. Revisiting and going beyond the EU-Turkey migration agreement of 2016: an opportunity for Greece to overcome being just “Europe’s aspis”

Author:: Kemal Kirisçi
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: In contrast to early last year, marked by a “border crisis” that erupted after the Turkish President finally put into action his long-standing threat to “open the border” for Syrian refugees, the year 2021 had a more promising start. The intense tensions in the Aegean Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean that followed the “border crisis” appear to be subsiding. The European Council statement of March 25 offers a possible framework for dialogue and diplomacy to take over from what was an annus horribilis in Greek-Turkish and EU-Turkish relations. Within this framework, room is also made for revisiting the EU-Turkey statement adopted in March 2016 to manage the aftermath of the European migration crisis that had seen a mass displacement of refugees and migrants primarily from Turkey to Greece and on to Europe. The statement has had many opponents and its implementation has faced multiple grievances and recriminations from both sides. Addressing and overcoming these challenges will call for extensive diplomatic effort, good will and take considerable time. In the interim, however, the emerging positive climate offers the possibility to explore expanding cooperation in a relatively successful but inadequately appreciated part of the EU-Turkey statement known as the Facility for Refugees in Turkey (FRIT). FRIT has been instrumental in supporting Syrian and other refugees in Turkey. It has been an important manifestation of burden-sharing with Turkey and has benefitted refugees in concrete terms. Advancing cooperation in this area would also help contribute to mutual confidence building and have a positive spill over into other more complicated issue areas in the migration domain and broader bilateral relations.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Migration, Treaties and Agreements, and Refugees
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Greece, and Mediterranean

30. Don’t Interfere, Integrate: China Proposes (Yet Another) Middle East Peace Initiative

Author:: Tuvia Gering
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Israel should work with China so that its initiative doesn’t interfere with the Abraham Accords, and should seek to capitalize on common denominators between Beijing and Washington.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and Peace
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, Israel, Asia, North America, and United States of America

31. Ramifications of an American Return to the 2015 Nuclear Agreement

Author:: Efraim Inbar and Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: By ignoring Israel’s views on an issue critical to its security, Washington will cast a dark shadow over Israel’s status as a key American ally in the Middle East.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, Conflict, and JCPOA
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America

32. America Should Not Make the Mistake of Adopting the Arab Interpretation of UN Resolution 242

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Washington will bury any chance for peace if it reverts to the “Everybody Knows Paradigm” which demands Israeli withdrawal to the 1949 armistice lines
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Middle East, North America, and United States of America

33. No Agreement is Better than Another Bad Agreement with Iran

Author:: Yaakov Amidror
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Israel-US dialogue is necessary about Iran’s nuclear program, since a good agreement with Iran is a clear Israeli interest. But Israel must be prepared with a military option against Iran, as a last resort.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Military Strategy, and Peace
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America

34. Turkish-Iranian Rift: An Opportunity for Israel

Author:: Hay Ertan Cohen Yanarocak
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Israel should exploit the expanding rift between Ankara and Tehran to normalize its relations with Turkey. This also could bring Turkey into the circle of countries supporting the Abraham Accords.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Europe, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, and Israel

35. Iran Raises the Stakes for Biden

Author:: Alexander Grinberg
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Giving Iran unearned incentives in advance of negotiations only will bring about more Iranian provocation.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, Sanctions, and Negotiation
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

36. The 7th Round of Talks: Iran’s foot-dragging over the return to nuclear talks

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: French President Emanuel Macron, on September 6, held his sec-ond official phone call with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi since his ascent to presidency, to discuss the future of the Vienna talks aiming to revive the 2015 nuclear deal. Six rounds of talks have been held so far In Vienna.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and JCPOA
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

37. The Reappearance of Consensus: Implications of Israel-Russia Agreements over Syria

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Russian President Vladimir Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett held their first face-to-face talks on October 22 in Sochi, Russia. The summit talks, called by Putin, were slated for only two hours but lasted for about five hours, reflecting the two sides’ interest in enhancing coordination about several common issues, and warming up the Israeli-Russian relations which cooled down since Bennett rose to power.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Treaties and Agreements, Syrian War, and Consensus
Political Geography:: Russia, Middle East, Israel, and Syria

38. Iranian Illicit Procurement Scheme to Acquire Controlled Spectrometry Systems Busted

Author:: Spencer Faragasso and Sarah Burkhard
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:: On September 9, 2021, the German Federal Prosecutors Office issued an arrest warrant for a German-Iranian citizen, Alexander J., who is accused of illegally exporting a multitude of laboratory equipment, including four spectrometers, in three separate cases, exports that appear to have also violated the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).1 The total value of all the goods exported to Iran is 1.1 million euros. The defendant, Alexander J., is accused of violating the Foreign Trade Act (AWG) and Regulation (EU) No. 267/2012 of March 23, 2012, as amended in October 2015 in response to the establishment of a special Iranian procurement channel in the JCPOA, which places restrictive measures on certain Iranian entities and equipment for export (and related activities, such as brokering). In the first two cases, Alexander J. is alleged to have exported items to an Iranian national whose Iran-based companies were EU-sanctioned front companies procuring laboratory equipment for Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs at the time. Alexander J. further supplied the sanctioned entity with two spectrometers listed in Annex II of this EU regulation, which lists items that are not on the EU dual-use control list (Regulation (EC) No 428/2009 of 5 May 2009) but that could contribute to sensitive activities, including enrichment-related activities, reprocessing or heavy-water-related activities.2 These items require a license on a case-by-case basis. In addition, Alexander J. violated the regulation by providing goods to an embargoed entity. In the third case, Alexander J. exported two listed spectrometers to a different, unspecified Iranian entity, also without the required license.
Topic:: Security, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Sanctions, and Procurement
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

39. Analysis of the Turkish Services Industry and Korea-Turkey Cooperation

Author:: Cheol-Won Lee, Hyun Jean Lee, Mahmut Tekçe, and Burcu Düzgün Öncel
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: The Agreement on Trade in Services and the Agreement on Investment between Korea and Turkey came into effect in August 2018. This article focuses on the construction sector and the cultural contents sector to seek possible cooperative measures between the two countries.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, Culture, Economy, Investment, and Industry
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Asia, and South Korea

40. Israel-Jordan Cooperation in 2019: Continued Deterioration

Author:: Yitzhak Gal
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: The year 2019 saw additional deterioration in Israel-Jordan relations to the point where ties can be described as “toxic”. Israel’s continued callous disregard of Jordanian sensitivities and interests on policy issues (such as al-Haram a-Sharif/Temple Mount) and economic issues (such as water), was further exacerbated by the particularly volatile issue of the Jordan Valley annexation. Strong security ties continued to provide the basis of the relationship, although they are conducted largely behind the scenes. Economic and civilian cooperation declined, except for the Israeli gas exports to Jordan, which are of strategic importance. Nonetheless, and despite Jordan’s frustration, anger and disappointment with Israel, new content can be infused into the relationship in order to rehabilitate it. Both states have a clear interest in cooperation.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, Peace, and Trade
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Jordan

41. Europe Needs a Regional Strategy on Iran

Author:: Cornelius Adebahr
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The rift between Europe and the United States over Iran is deepening. To regain leverage, the Europeans should engage all eight Gulf states in talks about regional security and nonproliferation. The rift between Europe and the United States over Iran is deepening. Two years of U.S. maximum pressure on Tehran have not yielded the results Washington had hoped for, while the Europeans have failed to put up enough resistance for their transatlantic partner to change course. Worse, the U.S. policy threatens to destabilize the broader Persian Gulf, with direct consequences for Europe. To get ahead of the curve and regain leverage, the European Union (EU), its member states, and the United Kingdom have to look beyond their relations with the Islamic Republic and address wider regional security challenges. The United States’ incipient retreat as a security guarantor and Russia’s increased interest in the region make it necessary for Europe to engage beyond its borders. Despite being barely alive, the 2015 international nuclear deal with Iran offers a good starting point. The Europeans should regionalize some of the agreement’s basic provisions to include the nuclear newcomers on the Arab side of the Gulf. Doing so would advance a nonproliferation agenda that is aimed not at a single country but at the region’s broader interests. Similarly, the Europeans should engage Iran, Iraq, and the six Arab nations of the Gulf Cooperation Council in talks about regional security. Rather than suggesting an all-encompassing security framework, for which the time is not yet ripe, they should pursue a step-by-step approach aimed at codifying internationally recognized principles at the regional level.
Topic:: Security, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and Nonproliferation
Political Geography:: Europe, Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

42. Strengthening Global Regimes: Addressing the Threat Posed by Chemical Weapons

Author:: Ian Anthony
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:: The inadequate response to the use of chemical weapons by a state against its own population was an important catalyst leading to the creation of the 1993 Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC). A great deal has been achieved under the CWC, which is an important example of how multilateral cooperation can succeed. Recent cases of confirmed use prove that the task of eliminating chemical weapons is not complete. Chemical weapons are once again being used on the battlefield and as terror weapons. Moreover, their use in targeted attacks against politically exposed persons presents a new challenge to the commitment made by CWC states parties that chemicals will be developed and produced exclusively for peaceful use. When they come together to review the CWC in late 2020, the states parties will have to assess whether their response to the challenges posed by the use of chemical weapons has been proportionate to the threat. If not, then they will have the responsibility to create the new capacities, invent the new instruments and develop the new initiatives that will make their efforts more effective. This SIPRI Policy Paper provides an explanation of the context for some important recent decisions and an analysis of them. It also proposes some actions that CWC states parties could take together in support of the effort to eliminate the threat of chemical weapons.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, War, Weapons, Disarmament, and Chemical Weapons
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

43. A New Erdogan-Putin Deal in Idlib May Help—For Now

Author:: Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Turkey, Russia, and Washington have compelling reasons to welcome a new ceasefire agreement, however imperfect, but they still need to address the longer-term dangers posed by the Assad regime’s murderously maximalist strategy. Recent fighting between Turkish and Syrian regime forces in Idlib province has seemingly wiped away the last vestiges of the September 2018 Sochi agreement, brokered by Russian president Vladimir Putin as a way of pausing hostilities and dividing control over the country’s last rebel-held province. Beginning last December, renewed Russian and Syrian attacks against civilians sent a million residents fleeing toward the Turkish border, creating another humanitarian disaster. Then, on February 27, thirty-three Turkish soldiers were killed when their unit was attacked in Idlib—Ankara’s largest single-day loss in Syria thus far. Turkey initially blamed Bashar al-Assad for the deaths, but eyes soon turned to his Russian patron as the more likely culprit, elevating tensions between Ankara and Moscow to a level not seen since Turkish forces shot down a Russian plane in November 2015. Meanwhile, the Turkish military and its local partner forces launched a string of attacks against the Syrian regime and its Iranian-backed militia allies. On March 5, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will meet with Putin in Moscow to discuss these rising tensions. If the two leaders reach another ceasefire deal, will it last any longer than the short-lived Sochi agreement? More important, what effect might it have on the latest refugee crisis threatening to wash over Turkey and Europe?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, Syrian War, and Negotiation
Political Geography:: Russia, Turkey, Middle East, Syria, United States of America, and Idlib

44. Europe Is Creating an Opportunity for Iran Talks, and Washington Should Take It

Author:: Charles Thépaut and Elena DeLozier
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: By triggering the nuclear deal’s dispute resolution mechanism, Britain, France, and Germany are opening diplomatic space that could help the United States and Iran return to the negotiating table. In a press conference following the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, President Trump reaffirmed his administration’s “maximum pressure” policy against Iran and asked, once again, for European countries to leave the nuclear deal. Meanwhile, Tehran announced what it called a “fifth and final remedial step” away from its commitments under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. In response, the British, French, and German foreign ministers stated on January 14 that they would trigger the JCPOA’s dispute resolution mechanism (DRM). At the same time, however, the E3 clarified that they are not joining the Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign, which has steadily intensified ever since the United States withdrew from the JCPOA and reimposed unilateral sanctions in 2018. Contrary to U.S. claims, the European decision will not immediately provoke “snapback” UN sanctions on Iran (though that scenario could unfold later if the E3 plan fails and Iran’s violations go before the UN Security Council). Instead, Europe is maintaining its evenhanded position somewhere between Washington and Tehran in order to preserve the possibility of new negotiations, on both the nuclear program and other regional issues.
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Nuclear Power, and Negotiation
Political Geography:: Europe, Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

45. The White House Peace Plan Meeting: U.S. Goals, Israeli Repercussions

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Whether they reveal a detailed plan or merely preview an aspirational document, U.S. officials still need to clarify their goals at a time when elections are looming and Palestinian participation seems highly unlikely. In a dramatic move, President Trump has announced that Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu and his leading rival, Blue and White Party leader Benny Gantz, will visit the White House on January 28 to be briefed on the administration’s long-awaited Middle East peace plan. Trump told reporters that the plan would likely be released before the summit. Predictably, no invitation was extended to the Palestinian Authority, which severed relations with Washington after the U.S. embassy was moved to Jerusalem in 2017.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, Negotiation, Peace, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

46. Current Dynamics and Emerging Threats in Yemen

Author:: Abo Alasrar, Nadwa Al-Dawsari, Ibrahim Jalal, and Gerald Feierstein
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Virtual roundtable recorded March 25, 2020, featuring presentations by MEI scholars Fatima Abo Alasrar, Nadwa Al-Dawsari, and Ibrahim Jalal. This roundtable covered a range of topics including Houthi expansion, prospects for new negotiations, the implementation of the Riyadh Agreement, and the coronavirus’ impact on Yemen.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, Conflict, Negotiation, Houthis, and Coronavirus
Political Geography:: Middle East and Yemen

47. The Battle for Libya: The UAE Calls the Shots

Author:: James M Dorsey
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:: Last week’s inauguration of a new Egyptian military base on the Red Sea was heavy with the symbolism of the rivalries shaping the future of the Middle East as well as north and east Africa.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, United Nations, Geopolitics, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, Libya, United Arab Emirates, and Red Sea

48. Dealing Preventively with NPT Withdrawal

Author:: Pierre Goldschmidt
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
Abstract:: Since it came into force in 1970, the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) has worked remarkably well to prevent the horizontal proliferation of nuclear weapons. The one major exception is North Korea, which withdrew from the NPT in 2003. Despite this track record of success, the stability of the current non-proliferation regime could be significantly undermined by further withdrawals by countries such as Iran. The right of states to withdraw from the NPT is clearly stated in the Treaty. Article X.1 provides that: “Each Party shall in exercising its national sovereignty have the right to withdraw from the Treaty if it decides that extraordinary events, related to the subject matter of this Treaty, have jeopardized the supreme interests of its country. It shall give notice of such withdrawal to all other parties to the Treaty and to the United Nations Security Council three months in advance. Such notice shall include a statement of the extraordinary events it regards as having jeopardized its supreme interests.” Since it is impossible to deny the right of states parties to withdraw from the NPT, it is all the more important to put in place appropriate preventive measures to dissuade withdrawal from the Treaty. The urgency of dealing preventively with NPT withdrawal increases as more nonnuclear-weapon states are poised to become “nuclear threshold states.”1 As the IAEA reported in 2008: “Much of the sensitive information coming from the [Abdul Qadeer Khan] network existed in electronic form, enabling easier use and dissemination. This includes information that relates to uranium centrifuge enrichment and, more disturbing, information that relates to nuclear weapon design.”2 and: “a substantial amount of sensitive information related to the fabrication of a nuclear weapon was available to members of the network."3 The widespread dissemination of this type of scientific and technical information raises the prospect that more states will acquire the capability to manufacture nuclear weapons and their means of delivery, thus increasing the
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Disarmament, and Nonproliferation
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

49. Trump’s “Deal of the Century” Is Not the Reversal of US Policy toward Israel– Palestine —The Reversal Is What We Need

Author:: Sadiq Saffarini
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: The article analyzes President Trump’s vision for a comprehensive peace agreement between Israel and Palestine, the so-called Deal of the Century announced on January 28. While the proposal uses the language of hope and prosperity and expresses support for the two-state solution, its provisions actually render the Palestinian “state” inviable. The plan does not empower the Palestinian state with full sovereignty over its territory nor does it recognize its internationally accepted borders, while at the same time nullifying the Palestinian right of return. In short, the plan seeks to legalize and legitimize the status quo by enabling Israeli expansionism and the systemic denial of Palestinian rights, which is a flagrant violation of international law and has no legal validity.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Sovereignty, Treaties and Agreements, Territorial Disputes, Peace, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, and United States of America

50. The Middle East Accords: an Israeli Perspective

Author:: Ophir Falk
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: Peace is a universal value, the highest virtue in Jewish tradition, and cherished by anyone longing for a brighter future for his children. Pragmatic Muslim leaders are no exception and with the recently reached “Abraham Accords’, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Israel have proven that Peace for Peace is possible.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and North America

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