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2. Baghdad and Erbil: A difficult road to settling differences
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- The relationship between Baghdad and Erbil lately has reached a dead end. The rift between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), the official executive body of the autonomous Kurdistan Region of northern Iraq, and the Federal Government of Iraq (FGI) has, for the past few months, entered a bottleneck driven by political turmoil and rotating governments. But efforts are being made on both sides to bridge differences. On January 11, a Kurdish delegation headed by Masrour Barzani visited the central government in Baghdad to discuss a number of disputed files. The group included several senior officials: ministers for electricity and finance; chief of the cabinet office; director of the office of the region's prime minister; ministers for planning and oil; economic advisors; general counsel; director of border control; and CEO of State Organization for Marketing of Oil (SOMO Oil).
- Topic:
- Oil, Treaties and Agreements, Budget, Gas, and Domestic Politics
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI)
3. Autonomy Curbed? Kurdish Oil Exports Hit Snags from Turkey and Baghdad
- Author:
- Joshua Krasna
- Publication Date:
- 07-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In this new edition of Tel Aviv Notes, Josh Krasna examines the implications of the closure of the pipeline that delivered oil from the Kurdistan Regional Government of Iraq to Turkey's Ceyhan port, focusing on the state of relations between Erbil and Baghdad.
- Topic:
- Oil, Economy, Exports, and Autonomy
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI)
4. Autonomy Curbed? Kurdish Oil Exports Hit Snags from Turkey and Baghdad
- Author:
- Joshua Krasna
- Publication Date:
- 07-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute
- Abstract:
- For the past three months, the Kurdish region in northern Iraq and its government, the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) have been facing one of the most serious challenges in the two decades of its formal existence. The pipeline through which it exports some 400,000 barrels of oil a day (b/d) – 10 percent of the overall Iraqi exports and 0.5 percent of global production – has been closed since March 25, at an estimated cost of close to a billion dollars a month (approximately $30 million daily). The KRG has depended on income from oil exports for some 80 percent of its budget. The stoppage came after a decade-long arbitration between the Government of Iraq (GOI) and Turkey by the Paris-based International Chamber of Commerce was decided in March in Iraq’s favor. Turkey was ordered to cease loading Kurdish oil without GOI supervision, and to pay Baghdad $1.5 billion in owed fees (Baghdad had demanded $30 billion). Baghdad had claimed that use of the pipeline from northern Iraq to the port of Ceyhan in Turkey by the Kurds without GOI consent was in violation of a bilateral agreement between the two countries from 1973, the annex of which states Turkey would only buy oil from Iraq’s state-owned oil marketer.
- Topic:
- Oil, Economy, Exports, and Autonomy
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI)
5. Petroleum and Progress in Iran: An Interview with Gregory Brew
- Author:
- Mirek Tobiáš Hošman and Gregory Brew
- Publication Date:
- 11-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Toynbee Prize Foundation
- Abstract:
- Between the 1940s and the 1960s, Iran developed into the world’s first petro-state. In the recently published Petroleum and Progress in Iran: Oil, Development, and the Cold War (2022, Cambridge University Press), author Gregory Brew argues that Pahlavi petro-state emerged from a confluence of global and local forces in the context of the Cold War, the global oil economy, and the nascent practice and discourse of international development assistance. The Toynbee Prize Foundation interviewed Gregory Brew on the main arguments and events of his book. Next to providing a brief chronology of the political and economic development of Iran in post-WW2 decades – including the episode of the failed attempt to nationalize Iranian oil industry in the early 1950s followed by the coup d’état in 1953 – Brew explained the concept of dual integration introduced in his book, which tries to account for both local and global integration of the Iranian oil industry. He also highlighted the role of the international development actors, including the World Bank, American developmentalists and development economists in shaping the Pahlavi regime and the Iranian development project.
- Topic:
- Development, Oil, History, and Industry
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
6. The Ukraine War and the Middle East: The Rich Get Richer and the Poor Get Poorer
- Author:
- Paul Rivlin
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In our latest issue of Iqtisadi, Paul Rivlin examines several economic issues occurring simultaneously in the Middle East and North Africa region mainly as a result of the Ukraine-Russia war. Higher oil prices are good for some countries and bad for others.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Oil, Economy, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Middle East
7. Petroleum Industry Diversification in the Middle East and Its Policy Implications for Korea in the Era of Energy Transition
- Author:
- Kwon Hyung Lee, Sung Hyun Son, Yun Hee Jang, Kwang Ho Ryou, and Dawoon Lee
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- The GCC oil exporters including Saudi Arabia and the UAE are under strong pressure to prepare for decreasing global oil demand in the era of energy transition and carbon neutrality. To overcome these challenges, they need to diversify their industrial structure and develop low carbon technologies such as green hydrogen and CCUS (Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage). This research is aimed to examine various mid-to-long term plans, industrial policies, and business cooperation cases to promote diversification in the Middle Eastern petroleum industry, suggesting policy proposals for cooperation between Korea and the Middle East and business opportunities in the region.
- Topic:
- Oil, Business, Diversification, Industry, Carbon Emissions, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Asia, and South Korea
8. Biden Sees Oil as Key to His Visit, but Does Riyadh Agree?
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The administration has signaled its intentions for the trip well in advance, but the realities of Saudi oil capacity and global energy forecasts should temper any U.S. expectations of a quick fix. The centrality of energy security to America’s historical relationship with Saudi Arabia is under strain. When Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait thirty-two years ago and threatened nearby Saudi oil fields, King Fahd ignored the pleas of cautious senior princes who wanted a delay to discuss the issue and instead requested Washington’s immediate help—which he quickly received in the form of half a million U.S. troops and a multinational force. It was a perfect illustration of the longstanding strategic understanding between the two governments: Saudi Arabia will supply the world with oil, and the United States will defend the House of Saud.
- Topic:
- Economics, Oil, Joe Biden, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Saudi Arabia, North America, and United States of America
9. Borders and transit countries: the re-territorialization of Middle East pipelines
- Author:
- Nino Luis Maduerira
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
- Institution:
- Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
- Abstract:
- Following the discovery of vast oil reserves in the Persian Gulf region, the Middle East became the main hub for the expansion and development of western pipeline technology. Contrary to the borderless world described in some accounts of globalization, what is observed after 1956 is the establishment of hard political borders, directly under the oversight of national governments, for pipeline deployment with minimal boundary crossings. In the Middle East, this minimal permeability of frontiers entailed fewer risks compared with the uncertainties arising from having to cross several countries: the sovereign state thus seemed the best container for oil transportation. The conclusion puts forward the concept of re-territorialization to explain the multi-level changes that took place, entailing shifts in geography, in business structures and in international relations.
- Topic:
- Oil, Science and Technology, Natural Resources, Borders, and Transition
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
10. KRI positioned in prominent role in global gas markets
- Author:
- Ahmed Tabaqchali
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) has proven gas reserves of over 25 trillion cubic feet—or 20 percent of Iraq’s total proven reserves. Its current gas production of 5.4 billion cubic meters per year could nearly triple production by 2030 and even sextuple by 2040. This increase would meet current and future domestic KRI demand and generate essential export revenue for the region. The report, The Kurdistan Region of Iraq’s Gas-Export Potential: Deja Vu All Over Again, authored by senior fellow Ahmed Tabaqchali considers the potential of the KRI’s proven and probable gas reserves.
- Topic:
- Environment, Markets, Oil, Gas, Economy, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI)
11. Reciprocal Pressures: Are Israel-Lebanon maritime border talks doomed to fail?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- The future of talks between Israel and Lebanon on delineating a shared maritime border, mediated by US Special Envoy and Coordinator for International Energy Affairs, Amos Hochstein remains uncertain following an exchange of escalatory statements from Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah about the disputed Karish natural gas field. Both sides suggested that the tensions can escalate into an all-out war unless their conditions are met. However, Lebanese officials including President Michel Aoun stated that the negotiations to demarcate the border are in the final stages.
- Topic:
- Oil, Treaties and Agreements, Maritime, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon
12. Govt Agrees Financial Aid as Houthis Target Oil Sector – The Yemen Review, November 2022
- Author:
- Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- Hopes faded that the expired truce would be revived in November, as Houthi authorities dug in their heels over maximalist demands that caused the talks’ collapse and then upped the ante with a series of drone and missile attacks on southern ports. The attacks crippled oil and gas revenues, though International Monetary Fund, Saudi, and Emirati support has given the government the lifeline it needs for now. Following the international financial agreements, the government-run Central Bank of Yemen in Aden moved to increase its oversight of banking data. Though there has been no return to full-scale war, intense if low-level clashes were seen in Taiz, Lahj, and Hudaydah. Reports persisted of back-channel Houthi-Saudi talks, but they appear to have stalled for now over Houthi demands for salary payments. The talks could become problematic for the government if they go beyond the question of the truce and extend to a unilateral settlement, which would be contrary to its interests. Divisions continued to wrack the Presidential Leadership Council, whose head Rashad al-Alimi was the sole member to spend significant time in Aden when he returned in early December after a regional tour that included Egypt, Jordan, and the UAE. The STC-Islah dispute, which has been at the heart of PLC wrangling, eased up slightly under UAE and Saudi pressure as their priority shifts to preventing a fiscal collapse after the Houthi strikes on oil facilities. This led to Alimi removing a key Islah military official in Hadramawt governorate, where STC-led protests were threatening to descend into violent clashes. The PLC’s Tareq Saleh strengthened his position as the scion of the Saleh family, leading government-backed celebrations to mark the death of former president Ali Abdullah Saleh in 2017. The opening of Al-Mokha airport raises the importance of his UAE-backed National Resistance forces, which guard a critical section of the Red Sea coast.
- Topic:
- Oil, Houthis, Armed Conflict, and Financial Aid
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Yemen, and Gulf Nations
13. Curse or Blessing? How cheap oil influences conflict dynamics
- Author:
- Matteo Ilardo
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Union Institute for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- When the price of oil goes down, there is often a sigh of relief among oil-importing countries, as cheap oil means a boost for the economy and increased savings for consumers and businesses. As a result, most of Europe tends to notice price shocks only when prices go up: consumers are squeezed while producers accumulate enormous wealth. Yet, for oil-exporting countries cheap oil means increased poverty and tighter budgets – a recipe for instability and conflict. This Conflict Series Brief analyses the effects of the recent pandemic-induced oil price shock on three vulnerable, conflict-affected countries. This is done by testing the two competing theories of the resource curse and of the rentier state, each offering a different interpretation of the oil-conflict nexus: The resource curse theory posits that an abundance of natural resources, and in particular oil, raises the probability, frequency, and intensity of conflict. The rentier state theory sees the presence of oil as having a positive effect on peace, as regimes use revenues to either buy off political opposition or suppress it. The recent price crash and its effects on conflicts in South Sudan, Libya and Iraq provide empirical support to the analysis. This Brief argues that both the stabilising and destabilising mechanisms identified in the two grand narratives are simultaneously at play in oil-rich countries. It shows that oil prices occupy a central role in determining which theory provides the most accurate outcome prediction. As a result, we hope to get a better understanding of the often-counterintuitive role that the resource plays in the onset of civil war. Building on the experience of the 2020 pandemic price plunge, the Brief ends with an overview of the future challenges that cheap oil will entail for producers and for Europe as oil demand peaks and the world moves away from fossil fuels.
- Topic:
- Civil War, Energy Policy, Oil, War, Natural Resources, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, and North Africa
14. National Oil Companies and Energy Transition in the Middle East and North Africa
- Author:
- Laury Haytayan, Patrick Heller, David Manley, and Ben Potter
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Natural Resource Governance Institute
- Abstract:
- As the world looks toward an energy future that is less reliant on fossil fuels, governments in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region must adapt. The petroleum sector is a major employer in the region, the primary source of fiscal revenue, the dominant generator of exports and the source of energy that powers economies. With the pace of energy transition uncertain, a growing number of oil companies are revising downward their long-term assumptions about fossil fuel consumption and prices, and private capital has been progressively moving away from the sector. This transition creates opportunities for cleaner and more reliable energy for citizens in the MENA, a region rich in renewable energy potential. MENA governments and their national oil companies (NOCs) recognize the need for adaptation. Several countries have launched vision statements or reform plans aimed at diversifying NOC portfolios, increasing efficiency and reducing their exposure to market decline. This briefing derives from in-depth research and interviews on the challenges and reform plans of three MENA NOCs (Saudi Aramco, Qatar Petroleum and Algeria’s Sonatrach) and draws out implications for other NOCs in the region. The authors seek to inform the strategies of governments and NOCs on how to manage NOC portfolios and the evolution of state-NOC accountability mechanisms and hope that nongovernmental analysts and civil society organizations will use this briefing as a tool to help understand and scrutinize public reform plans.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Oil, and Natural Resources
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and North Africa
15. Qatar Petroleum and the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative: Implications for State Companies in the Middle East and North Africa
- Author:
- Kaisa Toroskainen
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Natural Resource Governance Institute
- Abstract:
- In many resource-rich countries, state-owned enterprises (SOEs) play a major role in collecting taxes and payments, selling oil, and contributing to government revenue from extractive industries. In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, SOEs often control the end-to-end value chain of extraction. This briefing explores how becoming an Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) supporting company can facilitate transparency of SOEs from non-EITI implementing countries in the MENA region. The EITI is a global standard to promote the open and accountable management of extractive resources. Fifty-four countries currently implement the EITI and commit to a set of disclosures along the extractive industry value chain as defined in the EITI Standard. Beyond national EITI implementation, extractive companies can become EITI supporting companies by committing to a set of expectations to advance sustainable development, transparent management of natural resources and by supporting the initiative financially. In this briefing, the author has provided an overview of how becoming an EITI supporting company has supported Qatar Petroleum (QP) in improving reporting and transparency, with a view of providing relevant lessons to the EITI and other SOEs in the MENA region. The briefing concludes with recommendations to the EITI, QP and other SOEs in the MENA region.
- Topic:
- Oil, Natural Resources, and Industry
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, North Africa, and Qatar
16. Re-Thinking Assumptions for a 21st Century Middle East
- Author:
- Douglas A. Ollivant
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute
- Abstract:
- American policy in the Middle East is based on outdated assumptions. There are at least four novel elements in or impacting the Middle East that require an adjustment in strategy: North American Oil Independence: The United States no longer relies on the Middle East for its supply of energy and could choose to act without that significant tie. Rise of China: The People’s Republic of China is now a near-peer to the United States and is taking steps to protect its own interests in the Middle East. Diminishing Conventional Threats to Israel: All conceivable regional enemies are now peace signatories, wrestling with internal instability, or both. Unconventional threats continue to challenge Israel’s security, but a ground invasion is now a remote possibility. Rise of Sub-State Actors: In addition to widely recognized terror and insurgent groups, other actors, such as financial firms, technology firms, and private military firms, interact with power that rivals that of weak states. These new factors—alone and in concert—make legacy strategies at least suboptimal, if not unsuitable. Today’s Middle East exhibits very different characteristics than that of the Middle East of the past century. An acceptable and suitable strategy must incorporate these new data points.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Oil, Non State Actors, Geopolitics, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America
17. Maritime Dispute: Lebanon’s Options for Responding to Israel’s Deal with Halliburton
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- US-based oilfield services group Halliburton said on September 14 that it was awarded a contract to drill as many as five wells off the coast of Israel. Halliburton, which will conduct the work for London-based Energean, will deliver all services including project management, production enhancement, and subsea services. Halliburton previously executed a four-well campaign at Energean’s Karish and Karish North gas fields offshore Israel.
- Topic:
- Oil, Economy, Business, and Maritime
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon
18. Multilayered Challenges: Why are foreign oil companies planning to leave Iraq?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Numerous foreign oil companies have recently announced plans to sell their shares in several major oil fields in Iraq, as part of measures that may negatively impact Iraqi oil production. There are multiple explanations for this step, including unstable security and political conditions as well as Iraq's failure to pay foreign companies their dues for operating the fields, in addition to the growing Chinese influence in the oil sector.
- Topic:
- Security, Oil, and Business
- Political Geography:
- China, Iraq, and Middle East
19. The New Rules of the Game: Unfolding the targeting of an Israeli oil tanker in the Arabian Sea
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- On Friday, July 30, Iran targeted the Mercer Street oil tanker in the Northern Arabian Sea off the Omani port of Duqm, which was on its way from Dar es Salaam in Tanzania to Fujairah in the UAE, killing two crew members: a British and a Romanian. The Israeli ship was attacked by one or more drones. The attack came in two waves. The first wave was the bombing of the tanker with missiles carried by a normal drone. As the damage was limited, a larger suicide attack was launched on the dormitories of the ship's crew, with the aim of causing casualties, which actually resulted in the deaths of a British and a Romanian. The oil tanker belongs to the London-based Zodiac Maritime company, which is part of the Zodiac company owned by Israeli businessman Eyal Ofer. This is the second attack within the month of July, as the first one took place on July 3, targeting Csav Tyndall, which is also owned by Eyal Ofer.
- Topic:
- Oil, Conflict, Crisis Management, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Persian Gulf
20. Oil in the Age of Biden: U.S.-Middle East Energy Relationships Under a New Administration
- Author:
- Ruba Husari, Samantha Gross, Gerald Feierstein, and Jean-Francois Seznec
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- One of President Biden's most ambitious campaign promises is centered around American energy policy. Biden has vowed to shift away from a traditional focus in oil toward investments in renewable energy sources. Meanwhile, the oil industry in the Middle East is already facing severe repercussions from the coronavirus pandemic. States like Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Lebanon are struggling to replace oil revenue, cutting social benefits and worsening social unrest in the process. Oil has been the economic backbone on which the U.S. and nations in the Middle East have built diplomatic relationships and maintained mutual security interests. How will these crucial bonds be affected by a greener Biden presidency?
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Energy Policy, Oil, Pandemic, and Joe Biden
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and United States of America
21. Saudi Arabia: A Colossus with Clay Feets/Arabia Saudí: Un coloso con los pies de barro
- Author:
- Eugenia López-Jacoiste Díaz
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
- Institution:
- Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
- Abstract:
- The political-religious foundation of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is Wahhabism that marks its identity, society and politics. The Al Saud dynasty defends and expands Sunni Islam in the region and beyond its borders. In order to understand the interests and objectives of Saudi foreign policy, this article analyzes the main geopolitical elements at the service of the stability and hegemony of the Al Saud house in the most turbulent region of the Middle East. The Saudi government is developing a foreign policy, unsuspected in the past, to maintain its historic alliance with Washington, despite the ups and downs, and to transform the old rivalries between Riyadh and Tehran into new opportunities, including with Israel. This change in Saudi foreign policy is due to the controversial Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman who knows how to take advantage of the changing regional geopolitics and Saudi financial instruments, but also the military and technological in favor of a more proactive and modern Saudi Arabia, despite his weaknesses./El fundamento político-religioso del Reino de Arabia Saudí es el wahabismo que marca su identidad, su sociedad y su política. La dinastía Al Saud defiende y expande el islam sunní en la región y fuera de sus fronteras. Para poder entender los intereses y objetivos de la política exterior saudí, este artículo analiza los principales elementos geopolíticos al servicio de la estabilidad y hegemonía de la casa Al Saud en la región más convulsa de Oriente Medio. El Gobierno saudí está desarrollando una política exterior, insospechada en el pasado para mantener su histórica alianza con Washington, a pesar de los altibajos, y transformar las viejas rivalidades entre Riad y Teherán en nuevas oportunidades, incluso con Israel. Este cambio en la política exterior saudí se debe al controvertido Príncipe Heredero Mohamed bin Salmán que sabe aprovechar la cambiante geopolítica regional y los instrumentos financieros saudíes, pero también los militares y tecnológicos a favor de una Arabia Saudí más proactiva y moderna, a pesar de sus debilidades.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Government, Oil, Military Affairs, Geopolitics, and Wahhabism
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Persian Gulf, and United States of America
22. 2021 Resource Governance Index
- Author:
- Natural Resource Governance Institute
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Natural Resource Governance Institute
- Abstract:
- Decisions about how the oil, gas and mining sectors are governed determine the wellbeing of the billion people living in poverty in resource-rich countries. Where policies and practices ensure informed, inclusive and accountable decision making, natural resources can enable fair, prosperous and sustainable societies, rather than undermine them. The climate crisis, the coronavirus pandemic and dramatic changes in global energy markets have increased the stakes of good governance. Complex decisions about how to enable the political and economic adaptations necessary for a managed phaseout of fossil fuels and responsible increase in production of transition minerals sit at the heart of this dual crisis. Governance of the oil, gas and mining sectors will play a central role in the transition away from fossil fuels and the return to progress against poverty. The Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI) produces the Resource Governance Index (RGI) as a diagnostic tool to measure the governance of oil, gas, and mining sectors in select countries and to highlight opportunities for policy and practice reforms at the global, regional and country levels. The 2021 RGI assesses the governance of extractive sectors in 18 countries, including both established mineral and hydrocarbon producers, as well as new and prospective entrants to natural resource production.
- Topic:
- Oil, Natural Resources, Governance, Gas, Mining, Sustainability, and Inclusion
- Political Geography:
- Uganda, Africa, Central Asia, Middle East, Mongolia, Colombia, South America, Azerbaijan, Lebanon, Tanzania, Mexico, Senegal, Nigeria, Morocco, Qatar, Tunisia, Peru, Ghana, Guinea, Guyana, and Democratic Republic of Congo
23. 2021 Resource Governance Index: Lebanon (Oil and Gas)
- Author:
- Natural Resource Governance Institute
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Natural Resource Governance Institute
- Abstract:
- Assessed for the first time, Lebanon’s governance of its nascent oil and gas sector scored 53 out of 100 points in the 2021 Resource Governance Index. While Lebanon is not yet an oil and gas producer, its government has begun to establish an institutional framework to govern the sector before production begins. Lebanon received a “satisfactory” score of 73 points in terms of its ability to realize value from its sector according to the RGI, with the Lebanese Petroleum Administration (LPA) displaying signs of best practice in terms of extractive sector transparency. Nonetheless, “weak” revenue management and a “poor” enabling environment are causes for concern for the future of Lebanon’s resource governance.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Oil, Natural Resources, Governance, and Gas
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
24. Oil and Gas in Lebanon: Time to Rethink Expectations
- Author:
- Aaron Sayne and Laury Haytayan
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Natural Resource Governance Institute
- Abstract:
- Lebanon’s hopes of “entering the club of oil producers” have not materialized. After almost a decade of high expectations, the country still has no proven reserves of oil or natural gas. Instead, the one well drilled so far, by partners Eni, Total and Novatek, revealed only trace amounts of gas. Now the government has extended the companies’ deadline to explore until August 2022 and has postponed a second oil and gas licensing round. Lebanon needs a new, more realistic vision of what oil and gas can do for it. For years, politicians in Beirut have told the public that exporting fossil fuels would transform the country’s failing economy, and that generating electricity from gas would turn around its mismanaged power sector. In this briefing we do not try to predict the future—especially considering how fast conditions on the ground are changing. Instead, we offer an evidence-based warning about the wisdom of Lebanon staking its economic or energy future on oil and gas. The conclusions and observations are based on analysis of the current situation and on the experiences of fossil-fuel dependent countries and other prospective new producers. The current moment, though very painful, offers the country a chance to build a new energy strategy that it can start to implement when its economic and political fortunes improve. This strategy should realistically and sustainably meet people’s needs, rather than make them worse.
- Topic:
- Oil, Natural Resources, Gas, Economy, and Fossil Fuels
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
25. The Effect of Exchange Rate and Oil Price on BIST Industrial Index: Cointegration and Causality Analysis
- Author:
- Serpil Sumer
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Bilgi
- Institution:
- Sakarya University (SAU)
- Abstract:
- Industry is important for development and sustainability. Countries attach importance to industrialization in order to reduce their foreign dependency and gain competitiveness. It is expected that companies which competitiveness has increased with industrialization will have a positive effect on the national economy and financial markets. The raw materials used in the production process of the enterprises whose main activity is based on industry and the supply of these raw materials are among the issues that should be taken into consideration in industrial production. In this study, the relationship between oil price, exchange rate and Borsa Istanbul Industrial Production Index has been examined. In the study, Johansen co-integration and Granger causality tests were carried out using secondary data for the period January 2000 - September 2020. As a result of the Johansen co-integration test, it is concluded that there is a co-integration relationship between variables. As a result of Granger causality test; It was concluded that there is a bidirectional causality relationship between Borsa Istanbul industrial production index and exchange rate, and a racket effect causality relationship between Borsa Istanbul industrial production index and oil price. In addition, it is concluded that there is no causality relationship between exchange rate and oil price. The research of the relationship between the oil price and exchange rate of the industry, which has an important place in terms of economic growth and competition, is a feature that sets this study apart from other studies in the same field.
- Topic:
- Development, Oil, Industry, and Exchange Rates
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
26. Energy sector diversification: Meeting demographic challenges in the MENA region
- Author:
- Bina Hussein
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region are expected to witness a substantial growth in population over the next three decades. Many of the hydrocarbon-rich nations in this region will need to meet a commensurate increase in job demand. This report focuses on four nations that are predominantly reliant on the oil and gas sector: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait, and Algeria. In all four nations, the majority of the local population is employed in the public sector, which, in the long term, will become economically unsustainable. In order to meet the growing job demand, these nations must both diversify their economies beyond the energy sector and expand their energy sectors beyond hydrocarbons. Doing so will create important employment opportunities in new industries. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait all have strategies in place that, if followed, could pave the way towards a diversified knowledge-based economy. Algeria, on the other hand, is at a crossroads. Even as it is undergoing a political transition, the transition can create opportunities for the new government to change the country’s course and push economic reforms that are not only aimed at lowering the current unemployment rate but also at making the private sector more enticing. Additionally, all four nations will need to take steps to increase female participation in the workforce by easing current restrictions and making labor laws more favorable towards women. The energy sector plays a large role in the economies of all four nations. This sector has a critical role to play in efforts to diversify the economy and teach skills that will be beneficial in the future or can be applied in other sectors as well. Moreover, all four nations also have sovereign wealth funds that either play, or can play, a key role in diversifying the economy, strengthening existing industries, and helping to create new industries altogether. This report offers the following recommendations on how these four nations can work towards meeting demographic challenges in relation to the economy, specifically the role of the energy sector: Governments can strengthen the private sector through increased foreign investment and by incentivizing entrepreneurship through reforms that open up the economy and make it more lucrative for investors. Governments can create laws and support structures that encourage women to work and increase female participation in the workforce. Opportunities should be provided to teach skills and impart knowledge relevant to the job market that will also be relevant in the future. Lessons should be learned from the experience of the energy sector and leveraged to achieve successes in other areas. For example, the state-owned oil and gas companies have successfully set up a structure that allows them to not only invest in their employees but also take care of the community by offering health care services, education, and more.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Energy Policy, Markets, Oil, Governance, Geopolitics, Gas, Renewable Energy, Fossil Fuels, and Transition
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, North Africa, and Gulf Nations
27. Turkey, Libya and the Mediterranean Carve Up
- Author:
- Paul Rivlin
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- The civil war that has prevailed in Libya since the fall of the Qaddafi regime in 2011 has become increasingly internationalized. Foreign powers have taken sides in the war, supplying weapons, mercenaries and other support. In recent months, Turkey’s increased intervention in support of the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA) has added another element to the internationalization of the conflict. In order to obtain military support, the GNA has allied itself with Turkey’s plan to gain control of access to the Eastern Mediterranean and its gas-fields. This poses a threat to Greece, Cyprus, Israel and Egypt, who are all cooperating in the utilization of those fields and the possible development of pipelines to Europe.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Oil, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Libya, and North America
28. Coronavirus, Oil and the Middle East
- Author:
- Paul Rivlin
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In this issue of Iqtisadi, Paul Rivlin analyzes several of the key economic effects on the Middle East and North Africa caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the sudden drop in oil prices.
- Topic:
- Oil, Economy, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and North Africa
29. Iraq: Fixing Security in Kirkuk
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Federal forces now patrol Kirkuk, the diverse, oil-rich province disputed between the central and Kurdish regional governments. The arrangement is unsettling communal relations, with Kurds feeling excluded. With outside help, Baghdad and Erbil should design a joint security mechanism including a locally recruited multi-ethnic unit. What’s new? In October 2017, the Iraqi army restored central government control over the disputed Kirkuk governorate and its oil fields in the country’s north. Since then, multiple federal forces including paramilitaries have policed the area. The new arrangement reassured the province’s Arabs and Turkmen but left local Kurds feeling abandoned. Why did it happen? The federal government’s move into Kirkuk was triggered by a Kurdish independence referendum staged the previous month, which raised Baghdad’s concerns that the Kurdistan Regional Government in Erbil would declare Kurdish statehood and annex Kirkuk, other disputed territories and their petroleum riches. Why does it matter? Finding an equilibrium that satisfies Kirkuk’s three main ethnic groups by ensuring that none dominates the security apparatus at the others’ expense is a fundamental condition for the area’s stability. Only such a configuration will ensure peaceful coexistence and help prevent a resurgence of the Islamic State. What should be done? With international support, Baghdad and Erbil should establish joint security management in Kirkuk that includes a locally recruited multi-ethnic force under federal command. This arrangement would help protect the area from renewed insurgency, contribute to intercommunal peace and lay the foundations for an eventual settlement of Kirkuk’s status in Iraq.
- Topic:
- Security, Oil, and Kurds
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Kirkuk
30. Seven Ironies of Reconstructing a New Security Paradigm in the Gulf
- Author:
- Mohammed Cherkaoui
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- During the month of January 2020, most world capitals, diplomats, and think tanks sought to evaluate the status of the already-fragile balance of power in the Gulf. The U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to assassinate the Iranian general Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad has triggered the most acute escalation between Washington and Tehran since 1979. The White House’s pursuit of neutralizing the second most important figure in Iran, after the spiritual leader Ayatollah Khamenei, has shifted the US-Iranian rivalry into a fierce confrontation between Washington’s “maximum pressure” and Tehran’s “maximum resistance”. There have been several interpretations and predictions of Iran’s possible direct or indirect acts of retaliation vis-à-vis Trump’s threats of targeting 52 sites, which have political and cultural significance for the Iranians. Some Washington-based analysts have been wary that “the U.S. and Iran are now in a traditional escalatory slope, and although neither side wants war, there is a real risk that it might happen.”(1) Anthony H. Cordesman, leading analyst at Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, has cautioned that the new US-Iran crisis “has now led to consistent failures in the U.S. strategy when dealing with Iraq and the Middle East for the last two decades – and has already turned two apparent ‘victories’ into real world defeats.”(2) In Doha, two research institutions, Aljazeera Centre for Studies and Qatar University’s Gulf Studies Centre, hosted a two-day conference, “Toward a New Gulf Security Order: Abandoning Zero-sum Approaches” at Qatar University January 19 and 20, to formulate new perspectives of the waning regional security order, and explore how to construct an alternative paradigm. As a point of entry, the Conference concept highlighted two manifestations of the failure of the existing security order, formally adopted by all Gulf States, since the establishment of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) May 25, 1981: First, to prevent the invasion, and later liberation, of Kuwait in the early 1990s. GCC established a coalition land force, “the Peninsular Shield Force”, with the objective of defending the six nation states, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Second, the decision of three member states - Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain - to impose a blockade on Qatar, a founding member of GCC since June 2017.(3) In this turbulent part of the world, Iran’s pursuit of creating a regional security order, but on the parsuit of the withdrawal of U.S. troops from the region—a condition rejected by Gulf states, which see the United States as the principal guarantor of their national security. Moreover, Iran still considers its own foreign interventions in the Gulf and Arab region as part of its revolutionary identity, to which it has devoted resources and agencies.(4) This paper “Seven Ironies of Reconstructing a New Security Paradigm in the Gulf” is a summary of the presentation I delivered at the Conference’s fifth panel “The Gulf and the US-Gulf Conflict”. It probes into several challenges of deconstructing the status quo, before envisioning an alternative framework of mutual security cooperation among several actors in the Gulf and the Middle East.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Oil, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, North America, United States of America, and Gulf Nations
31. Why Trump Rejects the Need from Middle Eastern Oil
- Author:
- James M Dorsey
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- It is the geopolitics rather than the economics of energy that will drive US interest, particularly as it regards efforts to change Iranian policies, if not the Iranian regime, as well as the longer-term power balance in the Middle East.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, Geopolitics, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
32. Looking West. The Rise of Asia in the Middle East
- Author:
- Valeria Talbot, Ugo Tramballi, Paola Magri, Zhao Jianming, Kabir Taneja, Adel Abdel Ghafar, Jeongmin Seo, Naser Al-Tamimi, Nael Shama, Sara Bazoobandi, and Anshel Pfeffer
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
- Abstract:
- As the world’s economic and political centre of gravity moves increasingly towards East and South Asia, we can expect a number of countries in these regions to devote more attention to the Middle East. The relations between East and South Asia and the Middle East have significantly expanded as a result of the global rise of Asian economic powers, particularly China, India, Japan and South Korea. Not only oil but also trade, investment, infrastructure, and tourism is the name of the business with the MENA region. Beyond energy and economic interests, questions arise about the potential geopolitical dimension of these evolving ties. What are the strategic implications of the projection of Asian countries in an unstable, fragmented and volatile region? How do they interact with each other and with other international players? Last but not least, will the Covid-19 pandemic be a game changer in (re)shaping relations in the future?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Oil, Regional Cooperation, European Union, Geopolitics, Business, and Soft Power
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Europe, Iran, Middle East, India, Israel, Asia, South Korea, Egypt, Gulf Cooperation Council, and Gulf Nations
33. Gulf Economic Outlook 2020 - Q3 Update
- Author:
- Hiba Itani
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The Conference Board estimates the Gulf region’s GDP growth to fall at -5.7 percent in 2020 compared to 2019. The slight improvement in oil prices in Q3 along with the easing of production cuts as of August will give oil GDP a small boost. As worries of a possible second wave of coronavirus in Q4 mount, consumer demand will weaken further, netting the rise in oil GDP.
- Topic:
- Oil, GDP, Economy, and Coronavirus
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Gulf Nations
34. Gulf Economic Outlook 2020 - Q1 Update
- Author:
- Hiba Itani
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The Gulf countries face a somber outlook, with the GDP of the region expected to contract by 5.9% in 2020 compared to 2019. The Gulf countries whose economies remain highly dependent on hydrocarbon are ahead of “perfect storm” like scenario: a humanitarian crisis, that morphed into a global demand shock and pushed oil prices into a free-fall. A historical oil production cut agreement barely managed to improve prices.
- Topic:
- Oil, Natural Resources, GDP, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Gulf Nations
35. Chevron’s Purchase of Noble Energy: Accelerating the Eastern Mediterranean’s Gas Revolution?
- Author:
- Joshua Krasna
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In the latest edition of Tel Aviv Notes, Joshua Krasna examines the regional implications of Chevron's purchase of Noble Energy for Israel, Egypt, and Jordan.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Oil, Gas, Economy, and Business
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Egypt, and Jordan
36. Saudi-Russia oil war is a game theory masterstroke
- Author:
- Antoine Halff
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
- Abstract:
- On the face of it, the idea of Saudi Arabia and Russia starting an oil price war in the middle of a global pandemic is as dumb as it gets. From a game theory perspective, it is a masterstroke. Analysts have called the breakdown of Opec+ and the lifting of the supply cuts that kept the oil market balanced in the last two years anything from a spectacular blunder to collective suicide. A new model of the oil market led by the inventors of mean-field game theory, Fields Medal laureate Pierre-Louis Lions and Jean Michel Lasry, suggests otherwise.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia
37. A Saudi-U.S.-Russia Oil Deal Is Not a Good Idea
- Author:
- Christof Ruhl
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
- Abstract:
- Oil markets are sending confusing signals at a time when more confusion is the last thing anyone needs. When Russia walked out on OPEC+ rather than contribute to more output cuts, Saudi Arabia turned on the crude taps. Whatever Riyadh’s intention, this “price war” was quickly made meaningless by the impact of the new coronavirus on global oil demand. The price collapse has been beyond anything anyone could have imagined. Now, storage room for crude is becoming scarce. Analysts warn darkly that plunging prices may threaten global economic stability. Equities follow the oil price news. Everyone seems to agree that prices should stop falling; and yet no one seems to argue that a very low oil price is exactly what the world’s economy needs to recover. The combination of price war and pandemic is also creating strange bedfellows. Some American shale producers are advocating that their country blocks Saudi oil imports, others want to talk to OPEC. President Donald Trump’s government has expressed an interest in cooperating on global oil supplies with Saudi Arabia and Russia; it’s nudging OPEC+ to reconvene, or an even wider group of producers to meet. Could we be witnessing the emergence of an unholy alliance of Saudi Arabia, Russia and the U.S., to “manage volatility,” and incidentally shore up the price of oil?
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Oil, and Natural Resources
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, North America, and United States of America
38. 5 Reasons Why a Global Agreement to Prop Up Oil Prices Won’t Work
- Author:
- Jason Bordoff
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
- Abstract:
- In April 1986, U.S. Vice President George H.W. Bush traveled to Saudi Arabia with a request for King Fahd, the country’s ruler at the time: Please raise the price of oil. After falling around 60 percent over the course of a few months, cheap oil was becoming a “two-edged sword for America,” Bush explained. Consumers might enjoy low prices at the gas pump, but evaporating revenues for U.S. oil producers undermined America’s own oil supply, and thus its national security. That was the last time the White House publicly sought more expensive oil—until now. U.S. President Donald Trump has been pushing Saudi Arabia and Russia to cut output in the hopes that less crude on the market will raise oil prices, which have fallen by two-thirds since the start of the year. A low oil price threatens an already teetering U.S. shale oil sector with a wave of bankruptcies and job losses. All eyes are therefore on OPEC and its allies, which will meet by videoconference on Thursday to discuss the way forward—followed by an emergency meeting of G-20 energy ministers on Friday, where the United States will be represented as well. It was at the last meeting of OPEC and key non-OPEC producers in Vienna on March 6 that Russia refused to go along with a Saudi proposal for deeper production cuts. The subsequent surge in Saudi supply set off a vicious price war that has seen the price of oil briefly fall below $20 a barrel.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Oil, Regional Cooperation, Natural Resources, and OPEC
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Persian Gulf
39. The 2020 Oil Crash’s Unlikely Winner: Saudi Arabia
- Author:
- Jason Bordoff
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
- Abstract:
- With 4 billion people around the world under lockdown as the coronavirus pandemic grows, demand for gasoline, jet fuel, and other petroleum products is in freefall, as are oil prices. The price of a barrel of crude has been so low in the United States that sellers recently had to pay people to take it off their hands. As a result, oil-dependent economies are reeling. In the United States, the largest oil producer in the world, the number of rigs drilling for oil has plummeted 50 percent in just two months, almost 40 percent of oil and gas producers could be insolvent within the year, and 220,000 oil workers are projected to lose their jobs. Around the world, petrostates from Nigeria to Iraq to Kazakhstan are struggling and their currencies tanking. Some, like Venezuela, face an economic and social abyss. While 2020 will be remembered as a year of carnage for oil nations, however, at least one will most likely emerge from the pandemic stronger, both economically and geopolitically: Saudi Arabia.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, and Gas
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and Gulf Nations
40. Special Commentary: Scenarios for a Post-COVID Middle East
- Author:
- Christopher J. Bolan
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- It is worth approaching an assessment of the likely impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Middle East with a strong dose of humility. Nonetheless, it is clear that the spread of this disease has already had major impacts on the global economy, drastically reducing demand for Middle East oil exports, and leading to a historic collapse in oil prices. The immediate challenges of dealing with the monumental health and economic challenges posed by COVID-19 will add to the troubles of a region already burdened by multiple civil wars, poorly performing economies, growing civil discontent, and intensified sectarian divisions. This article offers a preliminary assessment of the potential impacts of COVID-19 on the security landscape of the Middle East and advances recommendations for how US military strategy and operations might adapt.
- Topic:
- Security, Oil, Military Strategy, Economy, Exports, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
41. Eight Reasons Why the United States and Iraq Still Need Each Other
- Author:
- David Pollock
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- A host of crucial multilateral interests are baked into the U.S. presence, from keeping the Islamic State down, to protecting vulnerable regional allies, to preventing Iran from taking Iraq's oil revenues. The assassination of Qasem Soleimani has brought the tensions in U.S.-Iraqi relations to a boil, with militia factions strong-arming a parliamentary resolution on American troop withdrawal and various European allies contemplating departures of their own. Before they sign the divorce papers, however, officials in Baghdad and Washington should consider the many reasons why staying together is best for both them and the Middle East.
- Topic:
- Oil, Bilateral Relations, Islamic State, and Qassem Soleimani
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Jordan, United States of America, and Gulf Nations
42. OPEC+ as a new governor in Global Energy Governance
- Author:
- Rafał Ulatowski
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
- Institution:
- Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
- Abstract:
- This article tries to evaluate the roots of the OPEC+ agreement, how it operates, and its prospects for the future. It argues that OPEC+ is a new governor in the Global Energy Governance (GEG) “regime complex”. It grew out of a convergence of the interests and capabilities of OPEC and non-OPEC exporters. The article shows that the emergence of OPEC+ is a consequence of over three decades of competition and occasional cooperation between exporters united in OPEC and those outside the organization. That cooperation was always a consequence of the price war and the demand of OPEC members for cooperation with non-OPEC exporters. Intensive consultations and three agreements on production cuts between both groups of countries in the years 2016-2019 made it possible to begin the institutionalization of cooperation among them. Cooperation within the OPEC+ agreement is nonformalized, based on government-to-government negotiations, and flexible. The signatories to the OPEC + agreement decided to avoid founding any formal IGO, and OPEC + continues to exist as a summit process.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, International Cooperation, Oil, Governance, and OPEC
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia
43. Oil Powers: A History of the U.S.-Saudi Alliance
- Author:
- Victor Mcfarland
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Book
- Institution:
- Columbia University Press
- Abstract:
- Since the mid-twentieth century, the United States and Saudi Arabia have built a close but often troubled alliance. In this critical history, Victor McFarland reveals the deep ties binding the leaders of the two nations. Connecting foreign relations and domestic politics, McFarland challenges the view that the U.S.-Saudi alliance is the inevitable consequence of American energy demand and Saudi Arabia’s huge oil reserves. Oil Powers traces the growth of the alliance through a dense web of political, economic, and social connections that bolstered royal and executive power and the national-security state. McFarland shows how U.S. and Saudi elites collaborated to advance their shared interests against rivals at home and abroad. During the 1970s, as higher oil prices enriched the Saudi government, destabilized the American economy, and changed the balance of power in the Middle East, leaders of both countries responded by consolidating their alliance. Facing objections from their own people, Washington and Riyadh chose to shield their partnership from public oversight and accountability. While American support empowered the Saudi royal family and helped the kingdom expand its influence across the Middle East, Saudi elites also encouraged a rightward shift in U.S. foreign and economic policy—with profound long-term effects. Oil Powers reveals the role of the U.S.-Saudi alliance in laying the groundwork for American military involvement in the Middle East and the entrenchment of a global order fueled by oil.
- Topic:
- Oil
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia
- Publication Identifier:
- 9780231552073
- Publication Identifier Type:
- ISBN
44. In Dire Straits? Implications of U.S.-Iran Tensions for the Global Oil Market
- Author:
- Ilan Goldenberg, Kaleigh Thomas, and Jessica Schwed
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
- Abstract:
- In recent months, Iran has responded to rising tensions with the United States—particularly the US launch of the “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran—by attacking oil tankers and infrastructure in the Persian Gulf region around the Strait of Hormuz (the Strait). These actions have been designed to signal to the United States, the Gulf states, and the international community that the American strategy of strangling Iran economically will not be cost-free, and to Saudi Arabia in particular that it is highly vulnerable to Iranian retaliation. As the Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints, the implications of Iran’s efforts merit close scrutiny and analysis. This study was designed to examine three scenarios for military conflict between Iran and the United States and assess the potential impacts on global oil prices—as one specific representation of the immediate economic impact of conflict—as well as broader strategic implications.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, Oil, and Global Markets
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
45. Efforts of Oil Exporters in the Middle East and North Africa to Diversify Away from Oil Have Fallen Short
- Author:
- Adnan Mazarei
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Faced with fluctuating oil prices and other uncertainties, the oil-rich countries of the Middle East and North Africa have made efforts—some for decades—to diversify their exports, in order to reduce their dependence on oil revenue and generate much-needed jobs. The results of these diversification efforts have been disappointing overall, raising concerns about the region's stability and potential risk to the global economy. Transparent public debates and dialogue are needed, especially with the private sector, about policies that have worked and those that have not, the costs and benefits of various diversification strategies, and improving governance of public resources being used for diversification.
- Topic:
- Oil, Natural Resources, Gas, Finance, Diversification, and Transparency
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and North Africa
46. Potential Gains: Why Did India Exempt the Iranian Oil Payments from Taxes?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- India has recently exempted Iranian oil payments from taxes and fees, in a move aimed at fostering its relations with Tehran, in the wake of the US temporary waivers, in November, to India along with seven other countries from the sanctions on Iranian oil imports, in order to be able to develop the Iranian port of Chabahar. The US waivers have allowed India to resume trade and investment relations with Iran, albeit in a limited manner. However, despite the expected gains, economic relations between India and Iran will hinge on the extent to which the US administration will renew the waivers granted to the eight countries, to continue buying Iranian oil after the current grace period expires.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Oil, Sanctions, and Tax Systems
- Political Geography:
- Iran, South Asia, Middle East, India, North America, and United States of America
47. Possible Repercussions: Why is Iran Interested in the Venezuelan Crisis?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Iran was quick to support President Nicolas Maduro's regime, rejecting any attempt to take over power unlawfully, and at the same time considering the U.S. position on the Venezuelan crisis as a direct interference in its internal affairs. It has even instructed its allied militias, like Hezbollah, to adopt a similar position on the crisis in Caracas.
- Topic:
- Oil, Hezbollah, Donald Trump, Juan Guaido, and Nicholas Maduro
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, South America, Venezuela, North America, and United States of America
48. Cautionary Anticipation: How did Iran deal with the newly imposed American Sanctions?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Iran is still anticipating the various alternatives that the United States may utilize to address the Iranian escalatory behavior, during the coming period. Such actions may not be limited to the new sanctions imposed on September 20, 2019 that included the Central Bank of Iran, National Development Fund and Etemad Tejarat Pars. Arguably, the procedural steps planned by the Donald Trump's administration will substantially determine the possible alternatives for the Iranian reciprocal behavior/ which Iran may rely on.
- Topic:
- Oil, Sanctions, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
49. The Oil Market Swings: Shale and Geo-politics
- Author:
- Paul Rivlin
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- Paul Rivlin analyzes possible future directions for the global oil market, against the backdrop of ongoing geopolitical developments in the Middle East and elsewhere.
- Topic:
- Development, Energy Policy, Oil, Global Markets, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
50. Iraq: Oil Wealth and Multiple Crises
- Author:
- Paul Rivlin
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In the new issue of Iqtisadi, Paul Rivlin examines the popular protests in Iraq during October 2019 from an economic angle. At the beginning of October, after days of riots in Baghdad, a nationwide curfew was imposed. The demonstrations were led by young men who claimed they have been denied job prospects by a system of state-sponsored corruption that reserved jobs to those with connections. This patronage network meant that ministries were run as fiefdoms, with revenues from services dispensed among patrons, who include senior officials and militias.[1] Protesters defied the curfews in parts of Iraq, taking to the streets in increasing numbers, while confrontations resulted in the death of over 250 people over the course of October.[2] As the country was paralyzed by anti-government demonstrations, the country’s most important Shiʿa cleric, Ayatollah ʿAli Sistani, issued a warning to both sides to end the violence “before it’s too late.”[3]
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Oil, Economy, and Protests
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
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