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2. Economic Diplomacy: The impact of Russia’s growing role on the Lebanese crisis
- Author:
- Nawar Samad
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- A Russian business delegation visited Lebanon in late June 2021 to offer support to the country by cultivating projects in the oil sector, development plans for the energy industry as well as the ports in Beirut and Tripoli. For the past two years, Lebanon, which is going through the worst economic and financial crisis in its history, and has been trying to secure international aid to survive, is now facing the attractive Russian economic bailout offer. Although such an offer is welcomed by Lebanon, the Russian initiative raises concerns across the West, and particularly in the United States, which is in control of Lebanon’s banking system and still has significant influence on the state’s politics and financial sector. The United States believes that it is not possible to dissociate this Russian offer from Moscow’s desire to expand its influence in a region, in which it already established military presence and gained access to the Eastern Mediterranean, where a conflict is underway over investment of newly-discovered gas fields.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Economics, Financial Crisis, and Gas
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, Middle East, and Lebanon
3. Assessing Israel Katz’s First Year as Foreign Minister
- Author:
- Nimrod Goren
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- In February 2019, Israel Katz was named Israel’s interim foreign minister, and three months later his appointment became permanent. This ended a period of almost four-years without a fulltime foreign minister, during which the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) significantly declined. A year into Katz’s term, an assessment can be made as to whether his appointment has strengthened the MFA and left a policy imprint. This, while taking into consideration the turmoil in Israeli politics since early 2019 and the understanding that deeper change requires a ministerial tenure longer than a year. This article sums up Katz’s first year on the job, based on media reports and information published by the MFA. It examines both intra-ministerial and policy aspects, and concludes that Katz is operating in Netanyahu’s heavy shadow, has failed to address the deep budgetary crisis faced by the MFA, and has focused on developing ties with Gulf States and combatting anti-Semitism.
- Topic:
- Government, Politics, Financial Crisis, and Benjamin Netanyahu
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Gulf Nations
4. The Eye of the Storm
- Author:
- George G. Namur
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Lebanon is in the throes of an unprecedented crisis in its modern history. Starting 17 October 2019, the people of Lebanon have been protesting in the streets in a broad-based uprising. This paper highlights key post–civil war realities and practices that led to the country teetering and proposes a solution package to what ails the country and threatens its future.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Financial Crisis, Governance, Social Movement, Revolution, and Political Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
5. Why a Traditional Austerity Plan Would Exacerbate Lebanon’s Woes
- Author:
- Mounir Mahmalat
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Following the eruption of mass protests in autumn 2019, Lebanon’s economy slid into a deep financial and economic crisis. Given the magnitude of Lebanon’s contemporary economic woes, a bailout program with participation by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) appears unavoidable. However, while a bailout program could avoid formal default and cushion the immediate effects of financial impasse, the austerity measures that will come attached are unlikely to achieve their goals. This article argues that in clientelist polities with weak states such as Lebanon’s, austerity programs carry the risk of leaving unaddressed the underlying inefficiencies that led to economic decline in the first place. Instead of prioritizing budgetary measures and spending cuts in a conditional reform program, international donors should seize this novel window of opportunity to legitimize a reform plan with popular demands. Measures to increase judiciary independence and political accountability in particular bear a larger potential than austerity measures alone to change politics and finally create a sustainable economic model.
- Topic:
- Financial Crisis, Austerity, Sustainability, and Economic Stability
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
6. Lebanon: Government Recovery Plan Asks Too Much of Ordinary Lebanese, and Not Enough from Elites
- Author:
- Sami Halabi
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- Facing an economy in free-fall, the Lebanese government has finally adopted a financial recovery plan that it has sent to the IMF and international donors. This paper argues that the plan fails to introduce strong accountability measures to address rampant corruption and mismanagement and does not tackle widespread inequality which could be done through a better distribution of losses and the introduction of more progressive taxation. Despite the government’s stated promise to “protect the poorest segments of the population from the dire consequences of the crisis”, the paper expects the plan to inevitably harm Lebanon’s poorest as well as its middle class.
- Topic:
- Economics, Financial Crisis, Governance, and Recovery
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
7. Salvaging Lebanon: Expert Opinions on a Way out of the Crisis
- Author:
- Ismael Sheikh Hassan
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- Lebanon is facing an unprecedented crisis with financial and economic collapse, lack of political trust, institutional deadlock, health crisis, and environmental degradation, to name a few. To face these challenges, the government should undertake a reform plan that addresses key priority areas to restore trust and salvage the country. We’ve asked experts to give their views about what they see as essential reforms in each area.
- Topic:
- Economics, Financial Crisis, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
8. Nizar Saghieh – No society disappears through bankruptcy: Its vitality alone can ensure accountability
- Author:
- Nizar Saghieh and Jamil Mouawad
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- This interview with lawyer and Executive Director of “The Legal Agenda” Nizar Saghieh addresses the most important dimensions of accountability following the economic and financial crisis that Lebanon is suffering. It expands the notions of justice, lack of trust in the judiciary, and widespread corruption while attempting to create hope by emphasizing the vitality of a civil society brought once more to the fore by the “17 October Uprising.” Rather than a mere uprising against power, this is now known as the revolution that revived and rebuilt society.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Financial Crisis, Social Movement, Protests, and Accountability
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
9. Explaining Turkey’s Current Economic Crisis
- Author:
- Erinc Yeldan
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
- Abstract:
- Turkey entered a new phase of recession-cum-real economy crisis starting in the last quarter of 2018. In contrast to the previous crisis episodes of 1994, 2001 or 2009, when the economy had abruptly shrunk with a spectacular collapse of asset values and a severe contraction of output, the 2018- crisis is characterized by a prolonged recession with persistent low (negative) rates of growth, dwindling investment performance, debt repayment problems, secularly rising open unemployment, a spiraling currency depreciation and high inflation. Popular explanations from the mainstream tradition attribute this dismal performance to a lack of “structural reforms” and/or exogenous factors. Per contra, our analysis shows that the underlying sources of the crisis are to be found not in the conjunctural cycles of reform fatigue, but rather in the post-2001 neoliberal speculative-led growth model with excessive reliance on hot money flows and foreign debt accumulation. We argue that following the post-2001 orthodox reforms, a foreign-capital-inflow-dependent, debt-led, and construction-centered economic growth model dominated the economy and caused a long buildup of imbalances and increased fragilities.
- Topic:
- Emerging Markets, Financial Crisis, Financialisation, and Economic Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
10. Lebanon's monetary meltdown tests the limits of central banking
- Author:
- Patrick Honohan and Adnan Mazarei
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Lebanon has spent the last 20 years juggling an excessive level of debt and current account deficits. Apparent financial wizardry by the central bank (Banque du Liban) helped keep the exchange rate fixed, inflation low, and debt service flowing until 2020. But these efforts merely postponed the inevitable, at a high cost. Repeated shocks to the Lebanese economy and governance weaknesses pushed the financial contraption over the cliff before the COVID-19 outbreak. The explosion that ripped through the Port of Beirut in early August added to the disarray. The Lebanese pound has crashed, the government has defaulted on some of its debt, and restrictions have been placed on deposit withdrawals and access to foreign exchange. Lebanon faces an uncertain future of uneven suffering. It will need foreign assistance, but such assistance will not extend to covering the losses of the banking system. How the losses are distributed will set the scene for Lebanon’s future development. Policymakers should aim for fairness, predictability, and stability without overindebtedness.
- Topic:
- Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, Central Bank, and Banking
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
11. Iran Has a Slow Motion Banking Crisis
- Author:
- Adnan Mazarei
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Suffering under Western sanctions and security challenges, Iran faces problems as well from its fragile banking system, which has been languishing for decades. Liquidity and solvency weaknesses pose a growing risk to the country’s financial stability. The sanctions reimposed by the United States in 2018 have heightened these vulnerabilities, but the problems also result from the heavy-handed role of the state, corruption, and the Central Bank of Iran’s failure to regulate and supervise the system. Iran’s ability to avoid a run on its banks is aided by their reliance on liquidity assistance, deposit insurance, and regulatory forbearance from the central bank. Depositors are forced to be patient because they have limited options to invest elsewhere. Iran has thus avoided a full-blown banking crisis. But the situation is not sustainable. Banks remain susceptible to external shocks, which could come from a complete halt to oil exports or war.
- Topic:
- Security, Financial Crisis, Sanctions, Banks, and Financial Institutions
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
12. Hezbollah Prioritizes Its Own Interests, Putting Lebanon at Risk
- Author:
- Matthew Levitt
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As demonstrators rail against economic problems, corruption, and sectarianism, the group’s role in undermining the public’s financial and physical security is coming under greater scrutiny. Lebanese citizens took to the streets this weekend to protest the country’s acute financial crisis, which has been marked by one of the highest debt ratios in the world, a new currency crisis, and fears that a strike will close gas stations indefinitely. Many believe that deep-rooted corruption and sectarianism got them into this mess, and may now complicate efforts to get them out. Against this backdrop, more criticism is being directed at Hezbollah, the widely designated terrorist organization that is simultaneously the most powerful party in Lebanon’s government and an aggressively sectarian movement that keeps its activities and weapons outside the government’s control. As the Treasury Department recently noted, developments over the past few weeks have underscored the extent to which the group’s actions “prioritize its interests, and those of its chief sponsor, Iran, over the welfare of Lebanese citizens and Lebanon’s economy.”
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Corruption, Financial Crisis, Protests, and Hezbollah
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
13. Refugees in Lebanon: Perspectives from on the Ground
- Author:
- Dima Zayat, Serene Dardari, and Mona Yacoubian
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- In recent months, refugees in Lebanon are facing a dismal climate of social polarization, opportunistic political rhetoric, and increasing hostility, with the demolition of some informal camp settlements, enhanced labor law restrictions, and widespread protests. Humanitarian programs must navigate tensions between host, Palestinian and Syrian refugee communities against the backdrop of Lebanon’s serious economic and environmental difficulties. The Middle East Institute (MEI) and Anera held a panel discussion of the many challenges facing Syrian and Palestinian refugees in Lebanon. Dima Zayat and Serene Dardari, two experts with years of experience in the humanitarian sector in Lebanon, were joined by discussant Mona Yacoubian to assess these challenges and explore potential avenues to address them. Randa Slim (MEI) moderated the discussion.
- Topic:
- Humanitarian Aid, Labor Issues, Financial Crisis, Refugees, Economy, Protests, and Xenophobia
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, Lebanon, and Syria
14. Global Forums: Are They Must or Waste for the Global Governance?
- Author:
- Gülen Derya Zayim
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Global Political Trends Center
- Abstract:
- The age of globalization has brought about interdependency between the nation-states in all aspects of life while uncovering challenges for the sovereignty of the nations. Therefore, how an integrated world system involving multiple actors can efficiently be governed remain a subject of serious discussions. This study briefly explains the historical background of G7/8 along with its evolution to G20 and discusses their effectiveness and legitimacy in the context of global governance. It is worthy to discuss the issue since these global forums’ legitimacy and effectiveness subject to both critics and praises. Although the lessons from the global financial crisis consolidates the idea of global coherence, integrity and compliance, diverging political and economic conflict of interest of nations still make the international forums’ existence and future position in global governance open to discussions. Additionally, the last part of the study draws conclusion about Turkey and its place in global governance.
- Topic:
- Sovereignty, Financial Crisis, Governance, and G20
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Global Focus, and Mediterranean
15. The Politics of Lebanon’s Economic Collapse
- Author:
- Paul Rivlin
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In the current issue of Iqtisadi, Paul Rivlin discusses the economic conditions that led to the current protest movement in Lebanon, focusing on the origins and impact of the banking crisis and how it relates to the political system.
- Topic:
- Politics, Financial Crisis, Economy, and Protests
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
16. Kriz Dönemlerinde Reel Ekonomik Göstergelerin Sinyal Yaklaşımı ile Değerlendirilmesi: 1999-2017 Türkiye Örneği
- Author:
- Şükrü Cicioğlu and Atilla Yıldız
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Bilgi
- Institution:
- Sakarya University (SAU)
- Abstract:
- Ülkelerin gelişmiş veya gelişmekte olmasına bakılmaksızın karşılaştığı sorunların başında ekonomik krizler gelir. Dünya ekonomisinin değişimi ile birlikte ekonomilerin kırılganlıklarının artması sonucu yaşanan krizlerin açıklanması daha da önem kazanmış ve krizlerin tahmin edilebilmesi, politikaların belirlenmesi açısından katkılar sağlar olmuştur. Dünya ekonomisi içinde yakalamış olduğu yüksek büyüme oranları ile önemli bir yeri olan Türkiye ekonomisinde iç ve dış kaynaklı birçok kriz yaşamıştır. Bunun yanında son dönemde faiz ve döviz kurundaki artışlar ekonomide kriz ortamının oluşmaya başladığı yönündeki düşünceleri artırmıştır. Kriz ortamının oluşup oluşmadığının değerlendirilebilmesi ve öngörüde bulunabilmek amacıyla reel göstergelerin değerlendirilmesi önem arz etmektedir. Çalışmada ekonomi üzerinde artan baskının ölçülmesi ve politika uygulayıcılarına yön vermek amacıyla krizleri öngörmek için yapılan çalışmalarda başarılı tahmin gücüne sahip olan Kaminsky, Lizondo ve Reinhart tarafından geliştirilen KLR sinyal yaklaşımı ile reel göstergeler değerlendirilmeye alınmıştır. Türkiye ekonomisinin 1999:01- 2017:12 dönemine ait aylık ve üç aylık verilerden yararlanarak uygulanan analiz sonucunda; kriz dönemi için sinyal verme başarısı açısından cari denge / ulusal rezerv, ithalat ve kapasite kullanım oranı göstergeleri başarılı olmuş ve aynı zamanda kriz olduğunda sinyal verme olasılıkları oldukça iyi değerler almıştır. Sinyal yaklaşımı neticesinde anlamlı sinyal veren göstergeler kullanılarak 2016:01-2017:12 dönemi değerlendirilmesi sonucunda cari denge / ulusal rezerv ve ithalat göstergeleri birer sinyal vererek ekonominin kötüleşme eğilimi içinde olduğunu göstermiştir.
- Topic:
- Economics, History, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
17. 2008 Küresel Finans Krizi Sonrası Türkiye’de Uygulanan Kamu Geliri Politikalarının İstihdam Oranları Üzerine Etkisi
- Author:
- Ekrem Gül, Ahmet Gökçe Akpolat, and Recep Kaya
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Bilgi
- Institution:
- Sakarya University (SAU)
- Abstract:
- 2008 Küresel finans krizi, kriz literatüründe ölçeğinin büyüklüğü ve küresel boyutta yaptığı etkiden dolayı önemli bir yer arz etmektedir. ABD’de 2008 yılında konut piyasalarında geri dönmeyen kredilerden kaynaklı başlayan finansal kriz başta Avrupa ülkeleri olmak üzere küresel çapta büyük bir yayılım göstermiştir. Bu doğrultuda krizin etkilerini gidermek amacıyla para ve maliye politikaları ülkeler tarafından önemle uygulanmıştır. Bu çalışmada 2008 Küresel finans krizi sonrasında Türkiye’de hükümet tarafından uygulanan maliye politikalarının önemli bir aracı olan kamu gelirleri ile istihdam oranları arasındaki ilişki öncelikle teorik olarak açıklanmaya çalışılmıştır. Teoriye ilaveten 2006Q1-2016Q4 dönemleri arasında kamu geliri politikalarıyla istihdam oranları arasındaki ilişki Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testine göre analiz edilmiş ve kriz sonrası uygulanan kamu geliri politikalarından istihdam oranlarına doğru tek yönlü Toda-Yamamoto (1995) Granger nedenselliği tespit edilmiştir.
- Topic:
- Financial Crisis, Employment, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
18. Türkiye Ekonomisi: Bardağın Dolu Tarafına Bakmak
- Author:
- M. Kemal Aydın
- Publication Date:
- 12-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Bilgi
- Institution:
- Sakarya University (SAU)
- Abstract:
- Tarihsel analizler, Türkiye Ekonomisinin en temel sorununun dış açık olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Kalkınma girişimlerini kesintiye uğratan bu sorunu aşmak için 1980’li yılların başında ithal ikameci büyüme modeli terk edilerek ihracata dönük büyüme modeli benimsenmiştir. 1980’li yılların sonuna doğru bu modelin sürdürülebilir olmadığının görülmesi üzerine, 1990’lı yılların başından itibaren yüksek faiz ve düşük kur beklentisine odaklı kısa vadeli sermaye girişlerinin [portföy yatırımları] uyaracağı tüketim talebine dayandırılmış yeni bir büyüme modeli hayata geçirilmiştir. Ne var ki bu model, iktisadi yapının kırılganlığını artırarak 1994, 2000 ve 2001 yıllarında ağır finansal krizler yaşanmasına sebep olmuştur. 2001 Krizi’nin ardından mali disiplin, sıkı para politikası ve bankacılık reformu temelinde kurgulanmış bir program izlenerek yeni bir büyüme dalgası yakalanmıştır. Bu dönemde enflasyonun denetim altına alındığı, bütçeden yapılan faiz ödemelerin azaldığı, devletin borçlanma gereğinin ve toplam borç yükünün hafiflediği görülmektedir. Diğer taraftan 2005’den itibaren doğrudan yatırım girişlerinin keskin bir biçimde artmaya başlaması ile birlikte dış açık’ın finansmanında kısa vadeli sermaye girişlerine duyulan ihtiyaç azalmıştır. Bütün bu gelişmeler sayesinde Türkiye Ekonomisi, 2008’de vuku bulan Küresel Finans Krizi’ni minimum hasar ile atlatmayı başarmıştır. Bu krizin bir sonucu olarak 2008 ve 2009 yıllarında hafif bir sarsıntı geçiren Türkiye Ekonomisi [işsizlik ve dış açık sorunlarını henüz çözememiş olmakla birlikte] 2010’dan itibaren hızlı bir biçimde toparlanmıştır.
- Topic:
- Government, Financial Crisis, Budget, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East