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102. Erdoğan’s “Mini Empire” in Libya and Syria
- Author:
- Soner Cagaptay
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In this issue of Turkeyscope Dr. Soner Cagaptay analyzes the evolution of Turkey's foreign policy with respect to both Syria and Libya.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Turkey, Middle East, Libya, North Africa, and Syria
103. Turkey Wades into Libya’s Troubled Waters
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Turkish intervention in Libya’s war stopped the besieged Tripoli government from collapsing. But fighting with Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar’s forces has since escalated, threatening a protracted conflict. Both Ankara and Haftar’s regional backers should urge their allies toward a return to negotiations and a ceasefire. What’s new? In January, Turkey stepped up military support to Libya’s UN-backed government of Prime Minister Faiez Serraj, stalling an offensive by forces allied with Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar. Its foray, underpinned by its own strategic, political and economic interests, has further complicated the already multi-layered Libyan crisis. Why does it matter? Turkey’s intervention has neither de-escalated the conflict nor yielded productive negotiations between rival political and military factions. It has instead exposed a different risk: the more outside actors provide military hardware and fighters to their respective Libyan allies, the longer the conflict may last and the deadlier it may become. What should be done? As Turkey’s intervention appears not to be producing a ceasefire or a return to negotiations, and since no outside actor is likely to back out unilaterally, Ankara should engage with other external players involved in the conflict to explore potential compromises regarding their respective interests in Libya and beyond.
- Topic:
- Military Intervention, Conflict, Negotiation, Crisis Management, and Proxy War
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Libya
104. An Advance Line of Defense: Moscow’s Objectives in Libya
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Moscow is escalating its undisclosed intervention in Libya to set up an advanced line of defence in the Mediterranean but the chances of its success are uncertain due to the nature of the NATO’s potential countermeasures and the political legitimacy that Russia’s Libyan partners will gain.
- Topic:
- NATO, Military Strategy, Military Intervention, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Libya, and North Africa
105. The Sirte-Jufra line: a front in the war or the basis of negotiations?
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Although all indications are that most of the principal players favour a political resolution, the military situation will remain volatile as long as Haftar’s forces are in Sirte and remain in control of the economically vital oil region.
- Topic:
- War, Natural Resources, Conflict, and Negotiation
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Libya, and North Africa
106. Moscow's Maneuvres for Mediterranean Bases and ME Markets
- Author:
- Zaki Shaikh
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- By carrying on the activities of the Russian military contingents in Syria and with its backing of Libya’s renegade general Khalifa Haftar, Moscow seeks to reassert its role in the Mediterranean and leverage a strategy for generating low-risk yet high yield wins.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Geopolitics, and Military Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, Middle East, Libya, Syria, and Mediterranean
107. Libya’s Zero-Sum Politics and Defiance of Legitimacy – Part 1
- Author:
- Mohammed Cherkaoui
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- There has been fluctuation and reconstruction of political legitimacy. Since the summer of 2014, two battles over legitimacy have spoiled Libyan politics and weakened the UN mediation with two rounds of international recognition of one new political institution or another.
- Topic:
- Politics, United Nations, Conflict, and Legitimacy
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Libya, and North Africa
108. Libya’s Zero-Sum Politics and Defiance of Legitimacy – Part 2
- Author:
- Mohammed Cherkaoui
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Foreign manipulation defies the wisdom of envisioning a political settlement of the Libyan conflict. All international diplomatic gestures need to be aligned via the UN platform, with a well-defined trajectory, rather than any zero-game equation or realist calculation.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Politics, United Nations, Conflict, and Legitimacy
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Libya, and North Africa
109. The Volatile Tunisia-Libya Border: Between Tunisia’s Security Policy and Libya’s Militia Factions
- Author:
- Hamza Meddeb
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Along the border between Tunisia and Libya, informal trade agreements led to a tight-knit border economy. But political changes in both Libya and Tunisia have fundamentally altered the economic and security landscape. The 2010–2011 uprisings disrupted a long-standing informal arrangement governing border trade between Tunisia and Libya. Over the following decade, as Libya disintegrated into mutually hostile fiefdoms, Tunisia maintained its unity, transitioned from authoritarian to democratic rule, and increasingly shunned official dealings with competing Libyan power centers. As such, grassroots cross-border agreements initiated by and between nonstate actors became the norm, albeit with the acquiescence of the Tunisian state. Yet these agreements have failed to constitute a sustainable mechanism for the trade that Tunisia’s eastern borderlands need for survival.
- Topic:
- Security, Economy, Borders, Trade, and Militias
- Political Geography:
- Libya, North Africa, and Tunisia
110. Exploring Armed Groups in Libya:
- Author:
- Emadeddin Badi
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
- Abstract:
- Libya’s security sector has become virtually unrecognizable from what it was a decade ago owing to the transformations brought about since the 2011 revolution. This evolution has implications on any attempts to usher in short-term and interim security arrangements as well as longer-term security sector reform (SSR) efforts. The paper explores the impact of different dimensions of these transformations on security provision in the Libyan landscape. In doing so, it aims to highlight the implications this has on attempts to reform the country’s hybrid security sector, and more broadly, how SSR doctrine can be informed by its findings.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Governance, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Libya
111. All Hands on Deck: the Crisis in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Need for US Leadership
- Author:
- Alexandros Zachariades
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- LSE IDEAS
- Abstract:
- Crisis has returned to the Eastern Mediterranean where Greek and Turkish economic interests, legal claims, and armed forces are squaring off. In this Strategic Update, Alexandros Zachariades explores how the two NATO powers arrived at the current confrontation, how the contest intersects with issues ranging from China to Libya, and how the international community can resolve the tension.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, NATO, Economics, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- China, Turkey, Greece, Libya, United States of America, and Mediterranean
112. Diaspora in Despair: Darfurian Mobility at a Time of International Disengagement
- Author:
- Jérôme Tubiana, Clotilde Warin, and Mahamat Saleh Mangare
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Small Arms Survey
- Abstract:
- Darfur’s fade-out from international headlines and Western interests over the past several years has fostered a false narrative that the conflict there is over, despite stark evidence to the contrary. Linked to this narrative, the paralysis of internal and international engagement on Darfur has compelled Darfurians—civilians and combatants alike—to increase their outward mobility in search of safety and livelihood opportunities in neighbouring African countries or further afield into Europe. Diaspora in Despair: Darfurian Mobility at a Time of International Disengagement, a new joint report from the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) and Security Assessment in North Africa (SANA) projects analyzes several components and consequences of this increased mobility. The report finds that highly mobile Darfurian rebel groups have found fertile ground for lucrative activities such as cross-border smuggling in neighbouring countries—particularly Libya. The study also notes that the harsh conditions encountered in Libya by non-Arab Darfurian civilians have compelled many to seek asylum across the Mediterranean in Europe.
- Topic:
- Conflict, Smuggling, and Disengagement
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Darfur, and Libya
113. Fragile States Index 2020
- Author:
- Fund for Peace
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Fund for Peace
- Abstract:
- The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Fragile States Index — and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built — makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.
- Topic:
- Democracy, Fragile States, Brexit, COVID-19, and Instability
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Iraq, United Kingdom, Europe, South Asia, Sudan, Central Asia, Middle East, India, Uzbekistan, Libya, Colombia, South America, Lebanon, Mozambique, Chile, Côte d'Ivoire, Global Focus, and Burkina Faso
114. Strategizing Toward Irrelevance in Libya
- Author:
- Alessia Melcangi
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- The Libyan conflict is marred by competing interests, and is where the Mediterranean’s major players all hope to come out on top.
- Topic:
- Conflict, Strategic Competition, Rivalry, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Libya
115. Conflicts, Pandemics and Peacebuilding: New Perspectives on Security Sector Reform in the MENA Region
- Author:
- Andrea Cellino, Annalisa Perteghella, Thomas Guerber, Paola Magri, Ranj Alaaldin, Jerome Drevon, Jalel Harchaoui, Irene Constantini, Eleanore Ardemagni, and Annalisa Perteghella
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
- Abstract:
- The Covid-19 pandemic is not only a health challenge. In the MENA region, against the backdrop of protracted conflicts, instability, and an overall deterioration in socio-economic conditions, the coronavirus crisis adds another layer of vulnerability and has already had long-lasting repercussions on human security across the region. Moreover, as hybrid actors take on an important role as security providers amid the pandemic in a context of limited or absent oversight, risks associated to a lack of accountability, ethno-religious discrimination, human rights abuses and gender-based violence grow. While classical approaches to security provision tend to portray non-state actors and the State as inherently at odds, the complexity of a rapidly evolving security landscape throughout the region should trigger a revision of the very concept of effective governance. Against this backdrop, how should Security Sector Reform (SSR) strategies and programmes adapt? What lessons can be drawn from selected case studies such as Iraq, Libya, and Yemen?
- Topic:
- Conflict, Peace, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Libya, Yemen, and North Africa
116. The Politics of Pandemics. Evolving Regime-Opposition Dynamics in the MENA Region
- Author:
- Karim Mezran, Annalisa Perteghella, Nadereh Chamlou, Gawdat Bahgat, Abbas Kadhim, Hafsa Halawa, Yahia Mohamed, Lemine Mestek, and Emadeddin Badi
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
- Abstract:
- The Covid-19 pandemic could not have come at a worse time, as many countries in the MENA region remain engulfed in vicious internal conflicts or must cope with structural socio-economic distress and popular dissent. In many respects, such a context and many of its problems resemble those that formed the backdrop for the Arab Spring in 2011. Exactly like what happens with humans, who are hit the hardest when presenting pre-existing conditions, MENA states have been impacted because of their own pre-existing conditions. In this sense, the Covid-19 pandemic has laid bare all the vulnerabilities and deficiencies of these states’ structures, and has aggravated pre-existing political, social, and economic shortcomings. How has the pandemic impacted state structures? What is its effect on organized protests and spontaneous popular movements? What are the possible long-term consequences?
- Topic:
- Authoritarianism, Arab Spring, Conflict, Protests, COVID-19, and Elites
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Libya, Algeria, North Africa, Egypt, and Gulf Cooperation Council
117. After the Storm: Post-Pandemic Trends in the Southern Mediterranean
- Author:
- Andrei Kortunov, Paola Magri, Ines Abdel Razek, Andrey Chuprygin, Chiara Lovotti, Matteo Villa, Elena Corradi, Ivan Bocharov, and Ruslan Mamedov
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
- Abstract:
- The Mediterranean region has faced a significant number of challenges that have stemmed from turbulent events taking place on its Southern shores: conflicts and instability, the migration crisis, disruptions of regional value chains, souring regional relations, and foreign power interferences that have severely affected the region. The Covid-19 pandemic wreaked havoc on the Southern Mediterranean, but the health crisis had ambiguous effects on the underlying economic, social, and political trends of the region. It has exposed and exacerbated much of the previous sources of tension and, obscured many of them as public attention moved towards facing the public health emergency. Will the Covid-19 pandemic spur governments and civil societies to action? Or will it just serve as another smokescreen behind which to hide the region's longstanding problems?
- Topic:
- Security, Energy Policy, Migration, Terrorism, Conflict, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Libya, Palestine, North Africa, Lebanon, Syria, and Mediterranean
118. Silencing the Guns Requires a Multi-Pronged Approach
- Author:
- Ramtane Lamamra
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Conflict Trends
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- To translate the vision of the 2013 Solemn Declaration into action, the Master Roadmap of Practical Steps to Silence the Guns by Year 2020 (AUMR) was adopted by the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council in 2016. The AUMR was to be executed by the AU Commission in collaboration with key stakeholders, including regional economic communities; economic, social and cultural communities; organs of the AU; the United Nations (UN) and civil society organisations. Speaking to this endeavour, the 33rd AU Ordinary Summit took stock of achievements and challenges encountered in implementing this flagship project of Silencing the Guns by 2020. It further sought to devise a more robust action plan, informed by the Monitoring and Evaluation Mechanism of the AUMR, for a peaceful and prosperous Africa. Conflicts have robbed Africa of over US$100 billion since the end of the Cold War in 1991. The continent has unfortunately witnessed some of the world’s biggest fatalities, food and humanitarian crises and the erosion of social cohesion, coupled with the total breakdown of economies and decimation of the environmental and political landscape. It is worrisome to see countries such as South Sudan, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Somalia, Mali and Libya continuing to witness persistent levels of armed conflict, and the decolonisation conflict in Western Sahara is remaining unresolved for so long. The threat posed by COVID-19 has considerably slowed the momentum of the silencing the guns agenda and has abruptly added to the existing challenges, slowing down the attainment of peace and development
- Topic:
- Security, Civil Society, International Cooperation, Peace, African Union, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Libya, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Somalia, Mali, South Sudan, and Central African Republic
119. Paradox of Relations: Russian - Turkish Relations in the Syrian and Libyan Fronts
- Author:
- Dania Koleilat Khatib and Aref Bijan
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Over the last few years, Russia has emerged as a significant power broker and military actor in the Middle East. Russia's intervention in the Syrian crisis since 2015 has revived its relations with neighboring countries. This increase in Russia's activity has led to convergence and divergence with other countries in the region. One of those countries is Turkey, which had cooperated at times and had differences at times with Russia in the Middle East, especially in the Syrian and the Libyan crises. Ankara and Moscow are fully engaged in the global competition trying to increase their power and influence. They face off in Syria and Libya. In Syria, Turkey supports the rebels in the North West while Russia supports the Assad regime. In Libya, Turkey supports the Government of National Accord (GNA) while Russia supports Libyan National Army (LNA). Their relation becomes more intricate as both parties got involved in the Caucus, a region of prime importance to both countries. In the vicinity of Russia, the oil route goes Tbilisi-Baku ending up in Ceyhan Turkey. While Turkey supports Azerbaijan, Russia supports Armenia. The Caucus crisis showed how the two countries are rivals that are ready to accommodate each other on a quid pro quo basis. The cease happened concurrently with a partial withdrawal of Turkey from some posts in the North West in Syria. Was there an agreement between Erdogan and Putin in this regard? There are no proofs; however, the various events that are happening from the Caucus to North Africa suggest that those two powers are rivals that are ready to accommodate each other. To add to that, the American retrenchment has encouraged the two powers to flex their muscles in the region. Therefore, given the developments in the region, this article has tried to examine the paradox of Russian-Turkish relations and their strategy in Libya and Syria.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Conflict, Strategic Competition, and Proxy War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, Turkey, Middle East, and Libya
120. “Syriazation” of the Libyan Crisis Threats and Challenges
- Author:
- Zurab Batiashvili
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- If up until now the confrontation between Russia and Turkey in the Middle East (Syria) was going with Moscow’s clear superiority, more recently the military situation has changed in Ankara’s favor in Libya where the center of the tensions moved in the spring of 2020. Multiple foreign states, which have long been confronting one another in the Middle East’s hot spots, got involved in the Libyan civil war with the aim of backing various groups of fighters. This caused the combat action to escalate and effectively internationalized the conflict. The conflict in Libya gradually became quite similar to the Syrian civil war (a “Syriazation” of the conflict took place) where foreign powers are fighting through their proxies (their supporters on the ground). This civil war creates numerous threats and challenges both within the region as well as outside of it.
- Topic:
- Civil War, Military Affairs, Conflict, and Proxy War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Turkey, Middle East, Libya, North Africa, and Syria
121. When the dust settles: Economic and governance repercussions of migration policies in Niger’s north
- Author:
- Johannes Claes and Anna Schmauder
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- Mobility has played an important role in Niger’s north throughout its history. Local populations, in response to droughts or shifting border regimes in Libya and Algeria, have traditionally been able to make changes to their livelihood strategies and have shown a remarkable capacity for adaptation, often through migration as a way of diversifying livelihoods. However, since the early 2000s, and particularly since 2016, this system has come under pressure as increasing collaboration with Western countries, whose agendas are aimed at curbing irregular migration from Africa to Europe, has reduced the options available for income generation. This paper lays out the emerging longer-term dynamics in the region in response to the criminalisation of smuggling in Niger in 2015 and the measures subsequently taken to curb northward migratory movements. It has discerned such effects on the local economy and on the perception of governance providers, who are often responsible for detecting and managing discontent.
- Topic:
- Economics, Migration, Governance, and Smuggling
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Libya, Algeria, and Niger
122. The End of German Ostpolitik: What a Change in Germany’s Russia Strategy Might Look Like
- Author:
- Stefan Meister
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Relations between the European Union (EU) and Russia have hit a new low after the attempted poisoning of Alexei Navalny and the Kremlin’s continued support for Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko, despite massive electoral fraud in that country. A new Russia policy in Berlin will require a paradigm shift, using incentives and leverage to improve Germany’s negotiating position with Moscow. The Nord Stream 2 pipeline project should be under intense scrutiny. If Moscow shows itself unwilling to cooperate, construction should be stopped.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Partnerships, Leadership, and Negotiation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Libya, Germany, and Syria
123. Africa and the Middle East: Beyond the Divides
- Author:
- Hisham Aïdi, Marc Lynch, Zachariah Mampilly, Nisrin El-Amin, Jean-Baptiste Gallopin, Noah Salomon, Samar Al-Bulushi, Wolfram Lacher, Federico Donelli, Lina Benabdallah, Ezgi Guner, Afifa Ltifi, Zekeria Ould Ahmed Salem, Alex Thurston, and Alex de Waal
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
- Abstract:
- The papers, published in this collection, ranged widely over issues connecting West Africa, the Horn, the Sahel and North Africa thematically, politically, militarily and culturally. The goal of this volume is to get American political science to break down the barriers between academic subfields defined by regions and open the fields to new questions raised by scholars from and across Africa and the Middle East.
- Topic:
- Islam, War, Regime Change, Media, Conflict, Political Science, Revolution, and Capital
- Political Geography:
- Africa, China, Sudan, Turkey, Middle East, Libya, Saudi Arabia, North Africa, West Africa, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, East Africa, Sahel, and Horn of Africa
124. MENA’s Frozen Conflicts
- Author:
- Marc Lynch
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
- Abstract:
- Over the last year, the MENA region’s simmering conflicts have seemed frozen in place. The internationally-fueled civil wars in Syria, Yemen and Libya have long since settled into an equilibrium in which no side can either truly win or truly lose. Those conflicts have been held in place in part by local ecologies and war economies and in part by the competitive interventions by regional and international powers on behalf of their proxies and clients. But are these conflicts truly frozen? What does viewing them through such a lens gain, and what are the theoretical and analytical costs? To explore these questions, POMEPS convened a virtual research workshop on September 25, 2020, with scholars from diverse empirical and theoretical backgrounds.
- Topic:
- Security, Civil War, Politics, Citizenship, Military Intervention, Conflict, Syrian War, Mental Health, Crisis Management, Peace, Justice, Capital, and Mobilization
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Libya, Yemen, North Africa, Lebanon, Syria, and United States of America
125. Turkey’s approach to proxy war in the Middle East and North Africa
- Author:
- Engin Yüksel
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Security and Defence Quarterly
- Institution:
- War Studies University
- Abstract:
- The last decade has seen a growing trend towards the use of proxies in the Middle East and North Africa following the outbreak of the Arab Spring. In this context, the issue of Turkey’s approach to proxy war in these regions has received considerable attention since 2016. Thereby, the purpose of this article is to investigate the essential characteristics of Turkish proxy war strategy in Syria and Libya. As such, this study intends to trace the development of Turkish proxy war strategy by making use of the conceptual frameworks proposed by Groh (2019), O’Brien (2012) and Art (1998). The most obvious finding to emerge from the analysis is that Turkey changed its indirect intervention strategy from donated assistance to proxy warfare in Syria and Libya when it saw a greater need to influence the result of the conflicts. In the case of Syria, this study has shown that the controlthrough-centralisation approach towards the Armed Syrian Opposition has enabled Turkey to carry out an effective proxy war strategy from 2016 onwards. In Libya, the results of this investigation have shown that theTurkish Army has pursued a proxy war strategy since Ankara and the Government of National Accord (GNA) signed an agreement on security and military cooperation in December 2019. The article concludes that Turkey has centralised many revolutionary groups under an Islamist-nationalistic vision and partnered them with its own military in order to expand its influence in the Middle East and North Africa.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Armed Forces, and Proxy War
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Libya, North Africa, and Syria
126. Game of Proxies – Towards a new model of warfare: Experiences from the CAR, Libya, Mali, Syria, and Ukraine
- Author:
- Cyprian Aleksander Kozera, Paweł Bernat, Cüneyt Gürer, Błażej Popławski, and Mehmet Alper Sözer
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Security and Defence Quarterly
- Institution:
- War Studies University
- Abstract:
- The objective of the study is to carry out a meaningful comparison that demonstrates the similarities and differences of various conflict theatres where proxy forces were employed. The analyses of the discussed cases focused on different aspects of the conflict and nature of the proxy use. The analyses presented on the following pages were conducted on the basis of the literature on the subject, governmental research and reports, and supporting sources reporting recent developments that complemented academic sources. Various non-state actors such as ethnic militias, paramilitary units, and private military companies have become more and more visible on contemporary battlegrounds. Modern states employ those actors to further their objectives, as this limits their own political and financial costs. This increasingly visible phenomenon points to an emerging new model of warfare where state actors are relying ever more on proxies of various character and nature. It is highly likely that any future conflict will be characterised by a proxy-based model of warfare, which will consist of a limited footprint made by regular forces (or none at all) and, consequently, the extended use of proxies supported by special forces. Because such an approach is less costly, proxies will be more often employed by low-budget states, previously reluctant to carry out such costly military endeavours. Denying the actions and affiliations of these proxies will inevitably follow and, in turn, a lack of political accountability and responsibility for the conflict’s outcome.
- Topic:
- Armed Forces, Conflict, Proxy War, and Proxy Groups
- Political Geography:
- Ukraine, Libya, Syria, Mali, and Central African Republic
127. Is Yemen Turkey’s Next Stop after Libya?
- Author:
- Hay Ertan Cohen Yanarocak
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Ankara’s military interventions in Iraq, Syria and Libya as well as its growing presence in the eastern Mediterranean constitutes a radical change in Turkish foreign policy. Its recent success in Libya demonstrates Ankara’s regional heft. Turkey’s next intervention is probably in Yemen.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Hegemony, Influence, and Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Turkey, Libya, and Yemen
128. Washington needs a policy in Libya as Turkey’s presence grows
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- A strong Turkish foothold in Libya threatens the free flow of energy resources from the Eastern Mediterranean basin to Europe as planned by Cyprus, Egypt, Greece, Italy and Israel.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Energy Policy, Hegemony, and Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Turkey, Libya, North America, and United States of America
129. Devolution of Informality: Legacies of State-Engineered Hybridity in Libya
- Author:
- Emadeddin Badi
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Brown Journal of World Affairs
- Institution:
- Brown Journal of World Affairs
- Abstract:
- In contemporary Libya, a panoply of state and non-state actors forms an unconventional security apparatus. The emergence of the state’s hybrid security architecture features prominently in the discussions surrounding the collapse of the Libyan state post–2011, as well as the fragmentation of its political and social orders.1 In recent years, the policies of Libya’s transitional authorities have contributed to institutionalizing “hybridity” as a defining feature of the country’s security architecture. Since the revolution, security actors have become increasingly entrenched as Libya’s weakening central government relinquishes its power to them, often bestowing upon select groups official affiliations by means of recognition and broad mandates.2 They have, in effect, blurred the lines between what is formal and informal, official and unofficial.
- Topic:
- Security, Non State Actors, Governance, State Actors, and Informal Institutions
- Political Geography:
- Libya and North Africa
130. The Promises and Perils of Diaspora Mobilization Against Authoritarian Regimes
- Author:
- Dana Moss
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Brown Journal of World Affairs
- Institution:
- Brown Journal of World Affairs
- Abstract:
- Transnational social movements play a critical role in the fight against authoritarianism, and a growing field of diaspora studies shows that exiles, émigrés, emigrants, and refugees are especially well positioned to undermine dictatorships from abroad.1 Given their cross-border ties, diasporas often mo- bilize against abuses taking place in their homelands, move aid to war zones and refugee camps, and fuel revolutionary social change.2 Exiles who gain the right to protest and lobby in their places of settlement can also become powerful players in international relations. Iraqi expatriate Ahmed Chalabi, who helped to justify the United States-led invasion of Iraq by fabricating evidence of Saddam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction, is just one example of how influential exiles can be when exacting revenge on the autocrats who abused them.3
- Topic:
- Diaspora, Social Movement, Authoritarianism, Arab Spring, Mobilization, and Activism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Libya, Yemen, North Africa, and Syria
131. Libyan crisis reshuffles traditional alliances
- Author:
- Rina Bassist
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- The April 4 offensive launched by Gen. Khalifa Haftar and the National Libyan Army (LNA) to take control of Tripoli is now, as of May 2019, in its second month; regional actors are becoming fearful of a bloody stalemate. While the ongoing civil war in Libya has pitted mostly local forces against each other, countries such as Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Russia have allied against Italy and Great Britain, in an intensified diplomatic battle primarily being waged at the UN Security Council. In fact, the ongoing Libyan crisis has shattered traditional alliances. The
- Topic:
- International Security and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Libya
132. Libya Country Report
- Author:
- Andrea Dessì
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- This study on Libya is one of a series of reports prepared within the framework of the EU-LISTCO project, funded under the EU’s Horizon 2020 programme. Libya is a special case within the EU-LISTCO project. It is in the western region of North Africa, bordered by the Mediterranean Sea to the north, Algeria and Tunisia to the west, Chad and Niger to the south, Sudan to the south-east and Egypt to the east. The security and stability of Libya is fundamental for the economic and political future of Europe, particularly in relation to migration, radicalisation and political economy. Because of the NATO-led intervention that brought about the collapse of the Libyan Arab al-Jamahiriyah, the country has now entered an interrelated social, economic and political crisis, and violence has been simmering for the past eight years. While the collapse of the previous government has been beneficial for some, numerous armed political actors now control the Libyan territory, supported and funded by external powers that often have contradictory political agendas. The purpose of this report is to answer the following research questions: what is the background of areas of limited statehood and contested order in Libya?; how and when can areas of limited statehood and contested order in Libya turn into governance breakdown and/or violent conflict, and how can these threats affect the security of the EU?; what are the resilience mechanisms in Libya?
- Topic:
- Security, Governance, Political stability, State, Crisis Management, and Resilience
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, and Libya
133. Managing the Secure Release of Sensitive Detainees in Libya
- Author:
- Fiona Mangan, Lillian Dang, and Nate Wilson
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- During the 2011 uprising that ousted dictator Muammar Gadhafi, revolutionary fighters in Libya rounded up large numbers of Gadhafi loyalists and detained them in prison facilities and makeshift detention centers around the country. The release of such high-profile detainees, either after they have been acquitted of crimes or served their sentences, is a sensitive political issue. This report examines the domestic and international laws and standards governing the secure release of these detainees and provides a number of policy ideas for addressing the shortcomings of Libya’s current release procedures.
- Topic:
- Crime, Prisons/Penal Systems, Arab Spring, and Justice
- Political Geography:
- Libya and North Africa
134. Improving the Role of Intelligence in Counterproliferation Policymaking: Report of the "Speaking Truth to Nonproliferation Project," 2018
- Author:
- Henry Sokolski
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
- Abstract:
- This report is the culmination of a two-year project sponsored by the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, which engaged more than 50 senior, retired and serving policymakers, intelligence officers, and top academic national security analysts. Its findings are based on hours of group discussions and private conversations that helped develop new primary histories of eight nuclear proliferation cases: India, Pakistan, Israel, Taiwan, South Korea, Libya, and an Argentine and a separate South African nuclear rocket case. Each history was prepared by an academic historian and was based on open sources. Former officials who had direct roles in these cases then critiqued these accounts. Additional private interviews were conducted with participants to fill in historical gaps. The purpose of the case studies was to identify when and how intelligence shaped or prompted nonproliferation policy actions and, if it did not, why. This set of historical conclusions prompted a more general discussion of how policy and intelligence officials might improve their collaboration to prevent and curb further nuclear proliferation and how academics might contribute by enhancing their treatment of such issues. The project addressed three broad, related questions: How can the role of intelligencein the making of nonproliferation policy be improved? How can the nonproliferation agenda get the priority it deserves? How can the nonproliferation community be sustained and strengthened?
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Intelligence, Nuclear Weapons, History, Nuclear Power, and Nonproliferation
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Africa, South Asia, Middle East, India, Israel, Taiwan, Asia, South Korea, Libya, South Africa, Argentina, South America, and North Africa
135. March 2019 Issue
- Author:
- Matthew Levitt, Kristina Hummel, Petter Nesser, Lachlan Wilson, Jason Pack, and Geoff D. Porter
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- CTC Sentinel
- Institution:
- The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
- Abstract:
- In our cover article, Matthew Levitt examines Hezbollah’s procurement channels, documenting how the group has been leveraging an international network of companies and brokers, including Hezbollah operatives and criminal facilitators, to procure weapons, dual-use items, and other equipment for the group and sometimes Iran. Levitt details how in the context of the war in Syria, “some of Hezbollah’s most significant procurement agents—such as Muhammad Qasir—have teamed up with Iran’s Quds Force to develop integrated and efficient weapons procurement and logistics pipelines through Syria and into Lebanon that can be leveraged to greatly expand Hezbollah’s international weapons procurement capabilities.” Levitt reveals Qasir appeared in footage of meetings last month between Syria’s President Assad and Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, underscoring the importance Damascus and Tehran attach to Qasir’s efforts. Our interview is with Vayl S. Oxford, the director of the U.S. Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA). The Islamic State threat to Europe has grown less acute since the Islamic State lost much of its territory in Syria and Iraq, but a significant threat remains. Petter Nesser identifies three factors that explain why the most recent wave of terrorism in Europe rose so high: the participation of European countries in the anti-Islamic State coalition, the strong reach of jihadi-terror networks into Europe, and the efforts of “terrorist entrepreneurs.” He warns anger among European Islamist extremists caused by the military intervention against the Islamic State, networks created in the jihadi battlegrounds of Syria and Iraq, and veteran European foreign fighters intent on orchestrating terror back home could combine to inflict new waves of terrorism in Europe. Lachlan Wilson and Jason Pack outline how the Islamic State in Libya has rebounded since its loss of Sirte in 2016 by fighting a twin-track war of attrition involving attacks on state institutions along the coast and a guerrilla insurgency in Libya’s interior deserts. Geoff Porter outlines how counterterrorism efforts in Algeria and low support for jihadism among Algerians has significantly weakened the Algerian chapter of al-Qa`ida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). Lastly, we’re very pleased to announce that Don Rassler, the Director of Strategic Initiatives at the Combating Terrorism Center, has joined the CTC Sentinel editorial board.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Non State Actors, Counter-terrorism, Islamic State, Networks, Hezbollah, and Jihad
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Libya, Algeria, and Lebanon
136. Economy of the Third World and Search for Greener Pastures in the Desert: Focus on Nigeria and Her Neighbours
- Author:
- Emmanuel Osewe Akubor
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Brazilian Journal of African Studies
- Institution:
- Brazilian Journal of African Studies
- Abstract:
- Available historical accounts as documented by scholars, opines that this area presently described as Desert has not always been so, as before now it was an area with beehive of economic activities (KENNY J., 2000). As such, there was a great influx of both human and economics goods in and around the area (KWANASHIE et al., 1987). The resultant effect was that by about 700 CE the Kanem Empire began to form in what is now Chad and Libya. This empire was to later absorb other tribes and peoples of northern Nigeria and trade and diplomatic exchange took place in the area. [...] there has been a sort of symbiotic relationship and exchange of goods, services and idea over time across the region, a mark of traditional diplomatic relations and good neighborliness. This is particularly noticeable in the Northern part of Nigeria, where governments of most of the countries around and along the desert areas have continually maintained diplomatic contact. A good example is the case of Libya government uptill the last 2010’s which apart from educational exchange had massively funded the construction of Mosques and other Islamic Centers of worship in Kano and other cities of the North. The government particularly under Gaddafi had embarked on several humanitarian donations and visits to Kano and these other Northern states, most times unannounced, after which he would journey back to his country (KINGSLEY, 2011).
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, History, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Libya, and Nigeria
137. The fate of Tripoli and the democratic dream for Libya
- Author:
- Lydia Sizer
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- On March 17th, 2011, US Ambassador to the UN Susan Rice wore green for St. Patrick’s Day as she took her seat at the circular Security Council conference table at the UN headquarters in New York. In Libya, the color green is associated not with St. Patrick, but the misfortune-bringing dictator, Muammar al-Qaddhafi. Ambassador Rice, along with the other representatives of the Security Council, gathered in New York that day to consider a response to Qaddhafi’s repression of anti-regime protesters. They voted unanimously in favor of a no-fly zone over Libya to protect the protestors, supporting a revolution that ultimately led to the dictator’s overthrow and an opportunity for democratic transition. As artillery fire maims the outskirts of Tripoli and rival militias engage in indiscriminate violence that ensnares civilians and trapped refugees, the chances of a democratic future for Libya are fading. Yet, this painful moment in Libya’s history also presents a rare opportunity to harness greater international attention to empower moderate voices and advance a vision for Libya that overcomes division, ensures long-term stability, and weakens the threats of resurgent authoritarianism and transnational terrorism.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Democracy, Refugees, Arab Spring, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Libya, North Africa, North America, and United States of America
138. State Capacity and Demand for Identity: Evidence from Political Instability in Mali
- Author:
- Maxim Ananyev and Michael Poyker
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
- Abstract:
- We demonstrate that civil conflict erodes self-identification with a nation-state even among non- rebellious ethnic groups in non-conflict areas. We perform a difference-in-difference estimation using Afrobarometer data. Using the onset of Tuareg-led insurgency in Mali caused by the demise of the Libyan leader Muammar al-Gaddafi as an exogenous shock to state capacity, we find that residents living closer to the border with the conflict zone experienced a larger decrease in national identification. The effect was greater on people who were more exposed to local media. We hypothesize about the mechanism and show that civil conflict erodes national identity through the peoples’ perception of a state weakness.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, State Formation, State Actors, State, and Institutions
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Libya, and Mali
139. R2P Monitor, Issue 48, 15 November 2019
- Author:
- Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Abstract:
- R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 48 looks at developments in Afghanistan, China, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Yemen, Cameroon, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali and Burkina Faso, Burundi, Central African Republic, Libya, South Sudan and Venezuela.
- Topic:
- Genocide, Human Rights, International Law, Conflict, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, China, Libya, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Syria, Venezuela, Burundi, Mali, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, and Burkina Faso
140. UN Human Rights Council Elections for 2020-2022 and the Responsibility to Protect
- Author:
- Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Abstract:
- Today the UN General Assembly elected Armenia, Brazil, Germany, Indonesia, Japan, Libya, Marshall Islands, Mauritania, Namibia, Netherlands, Poland, Republic of Korea, Sudan and Venezuela to the Human Rights Council (HRC) for the 2020-2022 term. With the elections of Germany, Japan, Marshall Islands, Netherlands and Republic of Korea, 20 of the 47 Council members during 2020 will also be members of the Group of Friends of the Responsibility to Protect in Geneva.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Ethnic Cleansing, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Sudan, Indonesia, Poland, Libya, Brazil, Germany, Armenia, United Nations, Venezuela, Korea, Netherlands, Mauritania, Namibia, and Marshall Islands
141. R2P Monitor, Issue 47, 15 September 2019
- Author:
- Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Abstract:
- R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 47 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Yemen, Cameroon, Mali and Burkina Faso, Burundi, Central African Republic, China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, United Nations, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, China, Libya, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Syria, Venezuela, Nigeria, Burundi, Mali, Myanmar, Cameroon, Central African Republic, and Burkina Faso
142. R2P Monitor, Issue 46, 15 July 2019
- Author:
- Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Abstract:
- R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the Responsibility to Protect lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 46 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Yemen, Cameroon, Mali and Burkina Faso, Sudan, Central African Republic, Libya, Nigeria, South Sudan and Venezuela.
- Topic:
- Genocide, Human Rights, International Law, United Nations, Ethnic Cleansing, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Sudan, Libya, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Syria, Venezuela, Nigeria, Mali, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, and Burkina Faso
143. Turkey Pivots to Tripoli: Implications for Libya’s Civil War and U.S. Policy
- Author:
- Soner Cagaptay and Ben Fishman
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Facing pressure from General Haftar and his foreign military backers, the Tripoli government has welcomed the helping hand extended by Ankara, whose own lack of regional options has drawn it into the middle of another conflict. On December 10, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced that he was willing to deploy troops in Libya if the UN-backed Government of National Accord in Tripoli requested it. He reiterated the offer during a December 15 meeting with GNA prime minister Fayez al-Sarraj in Ankara—a visit that arose after Gen. Khalifa Haftar, who heads the self-styled Libyan National Army (LNA) and seeks to replace the GNA, renewed his push to take Tripoli by force. Meanwhile, Turkey signed two controversial agreements with Tripoli over the past month: a memorandum of understanding on providing the GNA with arms, training, and military personnel, formally ratified by Tripoli earlier today; and a November 28 maritime agreement delineating exclusive economic zones in the Mediterranean waters separating the two countries. The latter move drew protests from Greece and Egypt and was condemned “unequivocally” by the European Council. These and other developments indicate Libya’s emerging status as a focal point of Ankara’s foreign policy, which seemingly regards the country as an arena for Turkish proxy competition with rivals old (Greece) and new (Egypt and the United Arab Emirates). At the same time, Libya’s GNA has become increasingly dependent on Ankara for military reasons—namely, a lack of other allies willing to provide arms capable of countering the LNA’s Emiratisupplied drones, and the arrival of Russian mercenaries who have added new technology and precision to Haftar’s war against Tripoli. Unless Washington invests more diplomatic energy and fully backs the German-led initiative to implement a ceasefire and return to peace negotiations, the proxy war in Libya will only escalate. In that scenario, Turkey and Russia—not the United States or its European partners—could be become the arbiters of Libya’s future.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Civil War, Military Affairs, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Libya, North Africa, and United States of America
144. To Shoot or to Defect? Military Responses to the Arab Uprisings
- Author:
- Nael Shama
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International and Regional Studies (CIRS), Georgetown University in Qatar
- Abstract:
- By examining the events of the Arab uprisings, this paper looks into the nature and dynamics of armies’ responses to popular uprisings. It argues that the outcome of the massive, regime-threatening Arab revolts in 2011 can be assessed by how a military responded to protests: did the army shoot protesters, did it stay idle, or did it largely defect? In light of the rich literature available on the historical experience of the “Arab Spring,” this paper shows that an army’s response to end popular uprisings in authoritarian regimes is determined by several key factors: the military’s level of institutionalization; its relationship to the regime; the degree of the regime’s legitimacy; the amount of international aid it receives; the prospects of foreign intervention; and, finally, the strength of the army’s bond with society and its perception of its own role within society. Additionally, there is a factor often overlooked by scholars; namely, how the military assesses a regime’s capacity to solve the crisis in order to triumph. The paper draws on evidence from the six cases of the 2011 Arab Spring—Egypt, Syria, Bahrain, Yemen, Libya, and Tunisia—to illustrate the dynamics of troop loyalty or defection.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Social Movement, Arab Spring, and Protests
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Syria, Egypt, Bahrain, and Tunisia
145. Theories of Democratic Change Phase III: Transitions from Conflict
- Author:
- Jennifer R. Dresden, Thomas E. Flores, and Irfan Nooruddin
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute of International Education (IIE)
- Abstract:
- The notion that robust democracy and violent conflict are linked is commonplace. Many observers of international politics attribute violent conflict in contexts as diverse as Myanmar and Syria to failures of democracy. Conversely, most agree that continuing political violence undermines any effort to build strong democratic institutions in Libya or South Sudan. As a matter of policy, democratization has often been promoted not only as an end in itself but as a means toward building peace in societies scarred by violence. Development professionals tackle these challenges daily, confronting vicious cycles of political violence and weak democratic institutions. At the same time, scholars have dedicated intense scrutiny to these questions, often finding that the interrelationships between conflict and democracy belie easy categorization. This report, the third in a series on democratic theories of change, critically engages with this literature to ask three questions: Under what circumstances do democratic practice or movement toward democracy quell (or exacerbate) the risk of different kinds of violent conflict? Under what circumstances do the risk and experience of violent conflict undermine democratic practice? How can external interventions mitigate risks and capitalize on opportunities inherent in transitions to democracy and peace? To answer these questions, a research team at George Mason University and Georgetown University spent eight months compiling, organizing, and evaluating the academic literature connecting democratic practice and violent conflict, which spans the fields of political science, economics, peace studies, anthropology, sociology, and psychology. This work was funded by USAID’s Center of Excellence on Democracy, Human Rights, and Governance (the DRG Center), under the Institute of International Education’s (IIE’s) Democracy Fellows and Grants Program. Beginning in May 2018, the authors organized a team of three research assistants, who read and summarized more than 600 journal articles, books, reports, and newspaper articles. The resulting White Paper was the subject of an August 2018 workshop with representatives from USAID and an interdisciplinary group of eight scholars with expertise in conflict and democracy. Based on their feedback, the authors developed a new Theories of Change Matrix and White Paper in October 2018. This draft received further written feedback from USAID and another three scholars. The core team then revised the report again to produce this final draft. This report’s approach to the literature differs from past phases of the Theories of Democratic Change project. While past reports detailed the hypothesized causes of democratic backsliding (Phase I) and democratic transitions (Phase II), this report focuses on the reciprocal relationship between democratic practice and conflict. The report therefore organizes hypotheses into two questions and then sub-categories within each question.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, Education, Democracy, Conflict, Political Science, and USAID
- Political Geography:
- Libya, Syria, North America, Myanmar, South Sudan, Global Focus, and United States of America
146. Libya’s global civil war
- Author:
- Tarek Megerisi
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- Foreign actors have long been an underappreciated driver of conflict in Libya, to the detriment of European and UN policymaking in support of a political solution there. These actors facilitate their Libyan client groups’ belligerence and escalate the conflict through financial, media, and military support. Europe must understand the role of other foreign actors in Libya if it is to prevent the conflict from devolving into an intractable proxy war akin to that in Syria or Yemen. Such a war would destabilise Libya’s neighbours, directly threatening European security interests and global energy markets. Major powers such as the United States and Russia are unwilling or unable to play a constructive or unifying role in Libya, putting the onus on Europeans to lead the effort to reach a solution. This will require European countries to neutralise or co-opt other foreign actors’ partisan support for Libyan groups. It will also require them to establish an inclusive international working group on Libya, using a mixture of incentives and disincentives designed to prevent escalation.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Civil War, United Nations, Geopolitics, Conflict, and Proxy War
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Libya, and North Africa
147. Mounting tensions in France-Italy relations: Troubled waters between European partners
- Author:
- Marco Siddi
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- Since its formation in mid-2018, the new Italian government has engaged in a series of arguments with France, most recently over the controversial actions of an Italian minister. However, these tensions have deeper roots that can be traced to different views on Libya and migration.
- Topic:
- Migration, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe, France, Libya, and Italy
148. Arab Spring: The Second Coming?
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Events in Sudan and Libya suggest that the core dynamic in the Arab world has not changed: authoritarian military regimes and political Islam remain the key players, popular sovereignty remains a distant aspiration
- Topic:
- Social Movement, Authoritarianism, Democracy, Arab Spring, and Protests
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Sudan, and Libya
149. ‘Peace’ in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, and Yemen
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 08-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- In fairness, peace almost always consists of a pause in the fighting that becomes a prelude to war. Taking modern Europe as an example, the Napoleonic wars were punctuated by failed peace attempts, and then led to the rise of Germany and a whole new series of wars with Austria, Denmark, and France. The repressive peace settlements following Europe’s upheavals in 1848 set the stage for decades of new rounds of conflict and revolution. World War I led to World War II, and then led to the Cold War and now to the Ukraine. Nevertheless, the current U.S. efforts to support peace negotiations in Afghanistan and the Middle East seem remarkably weak even by historical standards. In the case of Afghanistan, “peace” is being negotiated without even the same cosmetic level of local government participation that occurred in Vietnam. It is being negotiated when there is no political stability to build upon, and no apparent prospect that the coming election can bring real unity or effective leadership.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Africa, Iraq, Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Syria, and Gulf Nations
150. Proliferation of Armed Militias and Complicity of European States in the Migration Crisis in Libya, 2011 - 2017
- Author:
- Chukwurah Adaora and Okoli Rowland Chukwuma
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- African Heritage Institution (AfriHeritage)
- Abstract:
- This study examined how the emergent militia groups in post-Gadhafi Libya shaped the contours of migration in the state. The following two questions were examined: How did proliferation of armed militia groups contribute to the migration crisis experienced in post-Gadhafi Libya?’, and ‘Did the prioritization of counter smuggling of migrants over rescue operations by European countries bolster the migrant-trading activities of militia groups in Libya?’ The study was anchored on the gate-keeper state theory. Documentary method of data collection was employed, while qualitative analysis of data was adopted. The study found that: the fall of Gadhafi regime in 2011 created interstices exploited by local armed militia groups to commoditise migrants in Libya. Again, the armed militia groups served as agents of the three warring governments in Libya for securing their regime/territories, and as agents of European countries, particularly Italy, to thwart flow of irregular migrants to Europe. The commoditization of migrants by militia groups coalesced with the antimigration strategies adopted by some European countries to create migration crisis in which an avalanche of irregular migrants became trapped in Libya and were subjected to exploitation and slavery. The study recommends strengthening of the subregional security architectures in Africa to enhance surveillance/control of porous borders.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Migration, Conflict, and Paramilitary
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Libya, and North Africa