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52. Intertwined challenges: How will the ‘Berlin 2’ conference affect the Libyan crisis?
- Author:
- Mahmoud Qassem
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- About a year and a half following the first Berlin conference on the Libyan crisis held in January 2020, the ‘Berlin 2’ conference was held on June 23, 2021 raising a number of questions. Some of the questions pertain to the future of this crisis and the outcome of such interactions, in light of the significant momentum accompanying the current internal and external developments. The post ‘Berlin 2"’conference interactions were shaped according to two tracks, one of which is optimistic about the possibility of building on the outcomes of the conference and adopting a settlement path in Libya, while the other is loaded with anticipation and uncertainty, particularly with the ongoing challenges and issues that may undermine any future developments.
- Topic:
- Conflict, Negotiation, Crisis Management, and Conference
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Libya, and Germany
53. Unfulfilled Hopes: Strategic Implications of Re-opening Libya’s Coastal Highway
- Author:
- Mustafa Gamal Omar
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- While many Libyans look forward to implement the outcome of the Berlin II Conference on Libya and achieve stability across their country, others believe that the first steps towards such stability should be through breaking the deadlock on unresolved issues. Such issues require urgent but decisive action, and the most prominent of which is the reopening of the coastal road between Sirte and Misrata. The announcement on June 20, 2021, by head of the National Unity Government, Prime Minister Abdelhamid Dbeibah, that the main coastal highway will be re-opened, following months of talks on a ceasefire, has revived Libyan hopes. The move is projected to yield significant political, security and economic benefits for the country. However, according to media reports circulated in late June, the 5+5 committee, formally named the 5+5 Libyan Joint Military Commission, decided to put off the re-opening of the vital highway, claiming that only damages will be repaired, which made the situation murky once again. The 5+5 committee, on July 2, dispelled the confusion by announcing that the highway linking Sirte to Misrata will be re-opened over the next week upon the completion of maintenance work. Member of the committee, Major General Faraj Al-Sousaa, confirmed that arrangements were underway for the re-opening.
- Topic:
- Government, Armed Forces, Conflict, and Ceasefire
- Political Geography:
- Libya and North Africa
54. Institutionalised (In)Security: Exploring the MENA Region’s Governance Crises
- Author:
- Andrea Cellino and Eleanore Ardemagni
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
- Abstract:
- After a decade of popular uprisings and civil wars, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is experiencing a deep governance crisis. The transformation, weakening or even the collapse of state institutions has changed the security framework, with direct implications for processes of Security Sector Governance and Reform (SSG/R). This report, produced in collaboration between ISPI and DCAF, explores multiple governance crises in the MENA region, providing case studies on Libya, Iraq, Tunisia, and Yemen. How can we effectively bring about meaningful SSG/R in hybrid security orders? In which way is “institutionalised insecurity” challenging traditional patterns of governance in vulnerable settings?
- Topic:
- Security, Civil War, Governance, Crisis Management, and Uprising
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Libya, Yemen, North Africa, and Tunisia
55. Revisiting the Libya Intervention and the Idea(l) of Responsibility to Protect
- Author:
- Dogachan Dagi
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
- Institution:
- Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
- Abstract:
- The mechanisms of Responsibility to Protect (R2P) as agreed by the world leaders in 2005 were expected to prevent mass atrocities by forming a consensusbased international response that includes the use of force. In early 2011, for the first time, the coercive element of R2P was put into force in Libya by a UNSC resolution. However, the apparent pursuit of a regime change in Libya by the intervening powers has eroded trust in the Western coalition, shattered the belief in humanitarian missions, alienated the non-Western world, and thus broken the fragile consensus. The Libya debacle has strengthened the argument that it is very unlikely, if not impossible, to detach a humanitarian intervention from power politics, and prevent its misuse
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, United Nations, Humanitarian Intervention, and Responsibility to Protect (R2P)
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Libya
56. The UN Support: The implications of postponing Libya’s legislative elections to January 2022
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- On October 2021, Libyan House of Representatives announced that the election dates would be rescheduled, so that presidential elections would be held on December 24, while the legislative elections would take place thirty days later. Originally, the legislative elections were supposed to be held on the same day as the presidential elections. This can be considered a new step taken by the Parliament with the aim of showing commitment to the roadmap by approving the parliamentary election law.
- Topic:
- Law, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Parliament
- Political Geography:
- Libya and North Africa
57. Case Studies on the Role of Gender and Identity in Shaping Positive Alternatives to Extremisms
- Author:
- Rosalie Fransen, Melinda Holmes, Helena Gronberg, Stacey Schamber, and Shannon Foley Martinez
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Case Study
- Institution:
- International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN)
- Abstract:
- The International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN), with the support of Global Affairs Canada, has developed a set of “Case Studies on the Role of Gender and Identity in Shaping Positive Alternatives to Extremisms,” in Cameroon, Indonesia, Jordan, Libya, Pakistan, Somalia, Sweden, and the United States. The case studies demonstrate how conducting a Gender-Based Analysis Plus (GBA+) improves understanding of the drivers, narratives and roles that engender extremisms and violent extremist activity. By profiling examples of peacebuilding, deradicalization, reintegration and counternarrative work in these contexts, the case studies emphasize how attention to gender and intersectional identities can improve the effectiveness of interventions to transform extremisms – not only by preventing or countering it, but by providing positive alternatives that enable people to realize a peaceful, pluralistic future. The case studies cover a number of themes relevant to contemporary preventing/countering violent extremism (P/CVE) and counterterrorism (CT) work, including countering white supremacist extremism, the role of masculinities in recruitment and disengagement, addressing trauma and deploying mental health and psychosocial support (MHPSS) approaches in reintegration and rehabilitation, and work with religious leaders to promote peaceful, pluralistic and gender-just interpretations of religious texts and traditions. The case studies are intended for use by practitioners and policymakers to guide them in conducting a gender analysis and in integrating responsiveness to gender and identity factors in policies and interventions.
- Topic:
- Education, Religion, Violent Extremism, Counter-terrorism, Women, Inequality, Trauma, Violence, Mental Health, White Supremacy, Identity, Political Participation, and Gender
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Africa, South Asia, Indonesia, Middle East, Libya, North Africa, Sweden, Jordan, Somalia, Southeast Asia, Cameroon, and United States of America
58. Turkey’s interventions in its near abroad: The case of Libya
- Author:
- Engin Yüksel
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- The strategic objectives of the Turkish military intervention in Libya in 2019–2020 in favour of the Government of National Accord (GNA) were geopolitical (establishing an entry point into Africa in addition to Somalia), geo-economical (related to gas exploration in the Mediterranean) and commercial (facilitating repayment of outstanding business debts and enabling future profits). The deeper drivers of Ankara’s intervention include a mix of more assertive nationalism based on a hegemonic conception of Turkey’s ‘near abroad’, a perceived need to counter the military campaign of the Libyan National Army (LNA)’s to conquer Tripolitania, and Turkey’s exclusion from Mediterranean gas politics. Ankara’s intervention and its institutionalisation proved effective in counterbalancing the LNA and its international backers – chiefly Russia and the UAE, but also France and Egypt – and produced a more stable political situation in the process. While Turkey has achieved its short- to medium-term objectives and is likely to retain a substantial permanent military, commercial and political presence in Libya, it also created tensions with the EU and US as well as antagonizing the LNA’s international backers. In brief, an improvement in Turkey’s geostrategic position might have come at the cost of its regional strategic relations.
- Topic:
- Politics, Military Affairs, Geopolitics, Military Intervention, and Regional Power
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Libya
59. Egypt-Turkey Relations Towards Libya: Political and Economic Dimensions
- Author:
- Abdulrahman Al-Fawwaz
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
- Institution:
- Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
- Abstract:
- Egypt and Turkey makeup about half of the whole population of the Middle East and are the two leading nations in the eastern Mediterranean, including Iran as a whole. Both countries are now recognized as the two most tremendous modern military forces in the Middle East. Besides, Cairo and Ankara are major Muslim centers: the Al-Azhar Mosque in Egypt is the largest Islamic University in the world and a significant feature of Egyptian soft power; the historical association between Turkey and the last Islamic Caliphate is viewed in the region with great nostalgia. Given these similarities, a deep rivalry between the two countries exists around the world, while Ankara and Cairo have increasingly prevented overt aggression or conflicts. After the Arab Spring, tensions have intensified and, in effect, impacts Libya, Sudan, and the Eastern Mediterranean region. Along with the increased risk of an overt war between the two nations, the rivalry between Turkey and Egypt also challenges the delicate security of the Middle East. It indicates that it needs an international mediator to answer this thorny problem.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Bilateral Relations, Conflict, Mediation, and Rivalry
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Turkey, Libya, and Egypt
60. New Media, Same Libya?
- Author:
- Biancamaria Vallortigara
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In this issue of Beehive, Biancamaria Vallortigara investigates the impact of social media on Libyan society and the role of disinformation in the current crisis. Just a little over 10 years ago, when a wave of mass protests started to spread through the Middle East, the world observed intrigued the role played by the modern information and communication technologies (ICT): the “Arab Spring” has shown how social media networks facilitated the development of popular protests within a region, and the spread of revolutionary ideas from one country to another.
- Topic:
- Media, Internet, Social Media, and Disinformation
- Political Geography:
- Libya and North Africa
61. The Impact of Covid-19 and Conflict on Middle Eastern Economies
- Author:
- Paul Rivlin
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In our latest issue of Iqtisadi: Middle East Economy, Paul Rivlin assesses the economic damage caused by COVID-19 particularly in countries in the region experiencing the fallout of ongoing conflicts, and discusses several key trends that will continue to plague these hard-hit states. Ten years after the outbreak of the Arab Spring, war, low oil prices and COVID-19 are affecting the economic situation of the Middle East. Conflicts continue in Syria, Libya and Yemen, while Iraq and Lebanon suffer from the breakdown of government authority. The region appears to be less affected by COVID-19 than others, but that may be because data on infections and deaths is incomplete.
- Topic:
- Economy, Conflict, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Lebanon, and Syria
62. Water Politics in Libya: A Crisis of Management, not Scarcity
- Author:
- Malak Altaeb
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- Libya is one of the driest countries in the world. The Great Man-Made River Project, touted by Qaddhafi as a solution to take advantage of Libya’s plentiful natural resources, serves as a case study in social and institutional engineering. This article discusses the defining characteristics and legacies of hydro-politics under Qaddhafi, presents some of the new issues that have emerged since regime change in 2011, and offers some ways forward for water policy in Libya.
- Topic:
- Security, Natural Resources, Water, and Resource Management
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Libya
63. Straddling Liminality and Active Engagement: Understanding Mobilization Patterns of the Libyan Diaspora
- Author:
- Houda Mzioudet
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- The NATO campaign to unseat long-time Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi in 2011 was met largely with support by Libyans living in exile. Many had not set foot in their country in decades – some not even since 1969, the year Gaddafi carried out his coup d'état against King Idris I – and in diaspora they formed a close-knit community of intellectuals, doctors, professors, artists, politicians, and other civil society activists who acted as an opposition force to the regime. With the tragic unfolding of what started as the Libyan uprising in 2011, which morphed into a protracted civil and proxy war, the Libyan diaspora has enlarged to include new categories of activists and political actors seeking refuge abroad but also new socio-economic groups who are fleeing the deteriorating economic and security conditions. Yet despite this diversification in the profiles of those in diaspora, the conflict has never undermined the efforts of Libyans in exile to rebuild a semblance of a community that can mobilize for promoting peace and reconciliation. Building on the rich networks that were made with Western and Arab policymakers during the long years of exile, the Libyan diaspora, which has never been a monolithic entity, has been able to contribute to changes that have occurred in the country since the fall of the Gaddafi regime. This study explores the formation of Libyan exile communities since 2011, the different relationships they harbor vis-à-vis the homeland, and some of the different roles they have assumed in building the imagined community and in participating in the rebuilding of the country. Through exploration of the nature of the diaspora and its geographical distribution, and with particular focus on those in Tunisia vs. those in the UK and US, the study assesses the diasporic character of Libyans in exile. The research finds that issues related to peacebuilding, reconciliation, and the empowerment of women and minority groups act as nodal points for diasporic Libyans who, despite their different ideological, cultural, and tribal affiliations, can find common ground when discussing the future of post-Gaddafi Libya.1 Yet, in exploring the work of Libyan diaspora organizations and contextualizing the different waves and destinations of exodus, the research also observes quite different patterns of diaspora mobilization. More precisely, the research finds that the relationships between those in diaspora and the Libyan homeland differ according to relationship, as do the political opportunity structures, which have an implication on the type of mobilization that occurs. In this way, Libyans in diaspora in Tunisia – who maintain patterns of circular mobility and often harbor hopes of return, and who perceive more threats if engaged in political mobilization – tend to either remain under the radar or to engage through the activities and frameworks of international organizations located in Tunis. On the contrary, those in Western capitals have been able to cultivate relationships with foreign policymakers and international organizations for advocacy and lobbying purposes in favor of transitional processes. In all cases, though, direct political participation of Libyans in diaspora in homeland politics has faced a number of institutional, legal, and perceptional barriers, which nonetheless show signs of being able to be overcome through shared belonging to the Libyan imagined community. Based on structured and semi-structured interviews with four members of the Libyan diaspora, an online questionnaire distributed through a popular Libyan podcast series, a conversation with the Libyan podcast series’ creator and my attendance of two Zoom conferences of a Libyan diasporic organization, and drawing on existing statistical data as well as a qualitative review of social media content of Libyan exile groups, carried out between September 2019-January 2021, the study provides an assessment of how members of the Libyan diaspora relate to the homeland and to each other, and how these relationships contribute to different patterns of mobilization. The study concludes with a few recommendations to Libyan and international policymakers regarding how best to support the Libyan diaspora in the implementation of their efforts designed to promote reconciliation, peacebuilding, institutional reform, and transitional justice for Libya.
- Topic:
- NATO, Development, Nationalism, Military Strategy, Transitional Justice, Conflict, and State Building
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Libya
64. Between Geopolitics and Geoeconomics: The Growing Role of Gulf States in the Eastern Mediterranean
- Author:
- Adel Abdel Ghafar
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The role played by countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in the Eastern Mediterranean is becoming increasingly important. This calls for an assessment of their evolving relationship with countries in the region, as well as their involvement in the Libyan conflict. Increased involvement by Gulf actors may inflame existing regional rivalries and geopolitical tensions. The interests of GCC countries in the Eastern Mediterranean are first analysed in the broader context of regional rivalries. Special attention is then devoted to Egypt, Libya, Lebanon, Greece and Cyprus, while considering the role of other key regional actors such as Turkey and Israel. Recommendations on why and how the new US administration should intervene to decrease regional tensions are provided. Paper prepared in the framework of the IAI-Eni Strategic Partnership, January 2021.
- Topic:
- Economics, Geopolitics, and Rivalry
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Greece, Libya, Lebanon, Egypt, Cyprus, Mediterranean, and Gulf Nations
65. Echoes of Abstention: Russian Policy in Libya and Implications for Regional Stability
- Author:
- Sakari Ishetiar
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
- Institution:
- School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
- Abstract:
- Russia’s abstention from UNSCR 1973, which allowed a no-fly zone in Libya and ultimately led to the collapse of the Qadhafi regime, has resounded across both Russian foreign policy and the security environment of the Near East. Competing theories claim the abstention was either a carefully-planned strategy or a tactical miscalculation, but the result—Russian rejection of regime decapitation and Western distaste for further intervention—is easily observed. In addition to tangible military and political benefits, the chaotic and unsustainable Libyan status quo bolsters Russia’s political capital by discrediting that of the West. Although Russia is unlikely to intervene kinetically in Libya, it can passively destabilize the country at almost no cost, stymying Western efforts to end the crisis. Only by recognizing and accommodating Russia’s interests in Libya can the West negotiate a lasting settlement for Libya and secure vital U.S. interests in the region.
- Topic:
- Civil War, Sovereignty, Military Affairs, Military Intervention, Conflict, and UN Security Council
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, Libya, and North Africa
66. Tunisia’s Wake-Up Call: How Security Challenges From Libya Are Shaping Defense Reforms
- Author:
- Frederic M. Wehrey
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The escalation and spillover of Libya's conflict has posed mounting security challenges for Tunisia and exposed shortfalls in the country's defense transformation, in the areas of capability gaps, interagency coordination, intelligence sharing, strategic planning, and in the military's relationship with foreign security patrons.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Libya, North Africa, and Tunisia
67. Erdoğan Battles on Multiple Fronts in Risky Regional Power Bid
- Author:
- James M Dorsey
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
- Abstract:
- Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is at odds with just about everybody. He is on opposite sides with Russia in Syria as well as Libya and is trying the patience of his US and European allies. Turkey and Russia are testing the limits of what was always at best an opportunistic, fragile partnership aimed at capitalizing on a seemingly diminishing US interest in the Middle East, already evident under President Barack Obama and continuing under Donald Trump, who is haphazardly redefining what he sees as America’s national interests.
- Topic:
- Security, Geopolitics, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Turkey, Middle East, Libya, and Syria
68. The Battle for Libya: The UAE Calls the Shots
- Author:
- James M Dorsey
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
- Abstract:
- Last week’s inauguration of a new Egyptian military base on the Red Sea was heavy with the symbolism of the rivalries shaping the future of the Middle East as well as north and east Africa.
- Topic:
- Treaties and Agreements, United Nations, Geopolitics, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, Libya, United Arab Emirates, and Red Sea
69. Libya Agreement’s Impact on Italy’s Migration Policy
- Author:
- Katarzyna Michalska and Małgorzata Pawłowska
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The migration agreement concluded in 2017 between Italy and Libya helped stem the refugee and mass-migration crisis. The agreement, with minor amendments, was extended on 4 November 2019 until the end of 2021. However, its implementation has resulted in human rights violations, which is contrary to EU values and law. Italy will not quit the deal because it views it as an effective instrument for reducing irregular migration.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, International Law, Migration, Treaties and Agreements, and Refugees
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Libya, North Africa, and Italy
70. Desert Drift, Declining Deadliness: Understanding the Evolution of AQIM’s Suicide Bombings
- Author:
- Jason Warner, Ellen Chapin, and Caleb Weiss
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
- Abstract:
- For the past several years, jihadi violence perpetrated by al-Qa`ida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and its affiliated groups like Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) has contributed to renewed insecurity in the Sahara and Sahel. Despite the widespread violence that has emerged, few studies have focused on AQIM and its affiliates’ broader profiles of violence generally, or their use of specific tactics more acutely. This report examines how AQIM and its affiliated groups have deployed suicide bombers over the past 13 years. Using a unique dataset compiled by the CTC detailing the breadth of AQIM and its sundry affiliated groups’ use of suicide bombers from March 2007 to September 2020, this report offers the most comprehensive view to date of the groups’ use of the tactic. Among other findings, it underlines the existence of AQIM’s “desert drift:” the very clear shift in theaters of operation of AQIM’s suicide bombers from North Africa between 2007 and 2012 (focused primarily in Algeria, where it focused on police and domestic military targets) to the Sahel from 2013 to 2020 (focused primarily in Mali, where it targeted international peacekeepers). Using AQIM’s “desert drift” as a dividing point between two distinct suicide bombing campaigns, the report then compares various dimensions of AQIM and its affiliates’ suicide bombing efforts across these two campaigns, including comparative metrics on lethality, injuriousness, geographies, demographics of bombers’ age and gender, targeting tendencies, use of “teams” of bombers, and patterns of failure. In the main, it shows that despite being a long-used tactic by an increasingly pernicious group, AQIM’s use of suicide bombing has declined in prevalence, deadliness, and efficacy in the aftermath of its “desert drift.” Given these findings, the authors seek to provide new insight into how policymakers and academics understand the historical and contemporary threats posed by AQIM and its affiliates. In tracking one tactical choice of the group—suicide bombings—the authors also seek to provide a detailed analysis of how al-Qa`ida has manifested in the Sahel in a distinct form, tailoring its attacks profile to meet its evolving goals. Through these new insights, the report endeavors to provide new perspectives that will inform any response to insecurity in these regions and beyond.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Al Qaeda, Weapons, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Libya, Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, and Burkina Faso
71. May 2020 Issue
- Author:
- Eran Benedek, Neil Simon, Michael Knights, Alex Almeida, Mette Mayli Albaek, Puk Damasgard, Mahmoud Shiekh Ibrahim, Troels Kingo, Jens Vithner, and Nakissa Jahanbani
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- CTC Sentinel
- Institution:
- The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
- Abstract:
- One painful lesson from the history of terrorism is just how dangerous one single capable international attack planner can be. Little has been written in English about Basil Hassan, a radicalized Danish engineering graduate of Lebanese descent who became one of the most dangerous international attack operatives within the Islamic State. In this issue’s first feature article, Mette Mayli Albæk, Puk Damsgård, Mahmoud Shiekh Ibrahim, Troels Kingo and Jens Vithner build on a two-year investigative report for the Danish public broadcaster DR to provide a detail-rich profile. The authors write: “As the key figure in a drone procurement network that stretched from Europe through Turkey to Syria, [Hassan] was instrumental in furthering the Islamic State’s drone-warfare capabilities. As ‘the Controller’ behind the 2017 Sydney airline plot, he pulled the strings from Syria in directing one of the most ambitious and innovative terrorist plots ever seen.” There are claims Hassan was killed in the second half of 2017, but the authors note that Danish counterterrorism officials are still not certain that he is dead. In our second feature article, Michael Knights and Alex Almeida find that “the Islamic State has recovered from its territorial defeats since 2017 to mount a strong and sustained resurgence as an insurgent force inside Iraq.” Their analysis of attack metrics from the past 18 months paints “a picture of an Islamic State insurgency that has regained its balance, spread out across many more areas, and reclaimed significant tactical proficiency.” The authors write that “now operating at the same levels it achieved in 2012, a number of factors suggest that the Islamic State could further ramp up its rural insurgency in 2020 and 2021. An input of experienced cadres from Syria, a downturn in Iraqi and coalition effectiveness, and now the disruption of a combined COVID and economic crisis will likely all feed into an escalating campaign of attrition against the Iraqi state, military, and tribes.” May 2020 marks the third anniversary of the suicide bombing attack at the Manchester Arena in the United Kingdom. Two brothers from Manchester of Libyan descent, Salman and Hashem Abedi, were responsible for the attack. Following the conviction of Hashem Abedi in a trial that concluded two months ago in the United Kingdom, Eran Benedek and Neil Simon outline what is now known about the genesis of the attack, the brothers’ web of connections in a British-Libyan jihadi nexus, and their links to Islamic State extremists. Finally, Nakissa Jahanbani provides a high-level analysis of attack trends from 2008 to 2019 of Iranian proxies in the Middle East, South Asia, and Africa using several open-source datasets.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Islamic State, Jihad, Proxy War, and Aviation
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Iraq, United Kingdom, South Asia, Middle East, and Libya
72. R2P Monitor, Issue 49, 15 January 2020
- Author:
- Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Abstract:
- R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 49 looks at developments in Afghanistan, China, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Yemen, Cameroon, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali and Burkina Faso, Central African Republic, Iraq, Libya, Nigeria, South Sudan and Venezuela.
- Topic:
- Genocide, Human Rights, Conflict, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, China, Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Syria, Venezuela, Nigeria, Mali, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, and Burkina Faso
73. Ceasefire or Escalation in Libya?
- Author:
- Ben Fishman
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- After the fall of Sirte, Erdogan and Putin’s desired ceasefire can only be achieved with Washington’s support. Over the past week, regional and European actors have increased their diplomatic activity around Libya in response to intensifying violence in the nine-month-old civil war. On January 8, less than a week after the Turkish parliament approved sending forces to support the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA), President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian leader Vladimir Putin met in Istanbul and called for a Libya ceasefire to begin on January 12. Whether or not Moscow and Ankara manage to pause the violence temporarily, their growing influence in Libya represents an epic failure of Western attempts to resolve the conflict diplomatically. The longer-term effort to jumpstart Libya’s political transition requires a wider international effort at peace and reconciliation—something Russia and Turkey can support but not lead. Putin and Erdogan seemed to acknowledge that fact at their summit, endorsing a long-planned multilateral conference in Berlin aimed at recommitting all relevant actors to support an end to hostilities and respect the UN Security Council’s mandatory but widely ignored arms embargo. Even assuming Putin is serious and withdraws Russian mercenaries from the frontlines, a full, lasting ceasefire cannot transpire until the other actors who support Gen. Khalifa Haftar’s so-called Libyan National Army (LNA) agree to withdraw their equipment and personnel for a fixed period while negotiations are launched—especially the United Arab Emirates, which provides the LNA with critical air superiority. At the same time, Turkey would have to take commensurate de-escalatory steps of its own. The United States is the only actor that holds enough weight with all the foreign parties to bring about an authentic ceasefire. Despite being consumed with crises in Iran and Iraq, Washington should expend the diplomatic effort required to pursue durable stability in Libya before the country slips further toward endemic chaos.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, United Nations, Conflict, and Negotiation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Turkey, Middle East, Libya, North Africa, and United States of America
74. Making the Most of the Berlin Conference on Libya
- Author:
- Ben Fishman and Charles Thépaut
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- If the latest conference is to succeed, the principal actors stoking the civil war must endorse a genuine ceasefire and a return to Libyan internal dialogue. On January 19, international leaders will convene in Berlin to discuss a way out of the nine-month civil war between the so-called “Libyan National Army” led by Gen. Khalifa Haftar and the internationally recognized Government of National Accord led by Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj. The Germans led several months of preparatory efforts at the request of UN envoy Ghassan Salame, but had been reluctant to choose a specific date until they were assured that the event stood a reasonable chance of producing practical steps to improve the situation on the ground and jumpstart the UN’s stalled negotiation efforts between the LNA and GNA. Chancellor Angela Merkel finally took that step after several key developments unfolded earlier this month, including a January 8 ceasefire proposal by Russian president Vladimir Putin and Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Putin’s subsequent failed attempt to have each side sign a more permanent ceasefire agreement in Moscow on January 13 (the GNA signed but Haftar balked, though most of the fighting has paused for the moment). Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has been averse to engage on Libya during his tenure, but he is expected to attend the Berlin conference alongside National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien. Accordingly, the event gives the United States a chance to play a much-needed role on several fronts: namely, pressuring the foreign actors who have perpetuated the war and violated the arms embargo; working with Britain, France, Germany, Italy, and Russia to codify a ceasefire at the UN Security Council; and backing Salame’s efforts to reinvigorate the Libyan national dialogue, which Haftar preempted by attacking Tripoli last April despite European support to Salame. Since 2011, Libya has struggled to establish a legitimate transitional government despite three national elections and the creation of at least four legislative bodies. Challenges to the 2014 election results eventually led to rival governments in the east and west, and the division solidified when Haftar started the first civil war with support from his allies Egypt and the United Arab Emirates. That war halted in 2015, but several years’ worth of domestic and international efforts failed to bring Sarraj and Haftar to an enduring resolution.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil War, United Nations, Conflict, Negotiation, and Conference
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Turkey, Middle East, Libya, Germany, North Africa, United Arab Emirates, Berlin, and United States of America
75. Russia’s Growing Interests in Libya
- Author:
- Anna Borshchevskaya
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As in other conflict zones, Moscow cares little about reaching a peace deal so long as it can outmaneuver the West strategically while securing port and energy access—with private contractors playing an increasingly important role. The Kremlin is now openly treating Libya as another focal point of its Middle East activities. After years of U.S. neglect, the country has turned into a proxy war playground, and President Vladimir Putin is vying to become the chief power broker. Earlier this month, he tried (but failed) to get Khalifa Haftar to sign a ceasefire agreement in Moscow with Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj, head of the UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA). Putin also participated in the January 19 Berlin conference aimed at getting the parties back on the path toward a political solution. And though the prospects for such a deal remain uncertain, Moscow’s involvement in Libya will continue either way.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Civil War, Geopolitics, Negotiation, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Middle East, Libya, and North Africa
76. Development Cooperation with Conflict-Affected MENA Countries: Refocussing on the Social Contract
- Author:
- Mark Furness and Annabelle Houdret
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
- Abstract:
- State–society relations are in flux across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), nearly a decade after the Arab uprisings. The protests and revolts that swept the region in 2011 arose from widespread rejection of the post-independence Arab social contracts. These were based on redistribution of rents from natural resources and other forms of transfers and subsidies, as “compensation” for acquiescence to political and economic authoritarianism. In several MENA countries, including Iraq, Libya, Syria and Yemen, but also in Algeria, Lebanon and Palestine, the old social contracts have been destroyed by civil conflicts and internationally sponsored wars, which in some cases predated the 2011 uprisings. Since broken social contracts are at the root of conflict in the MENA region, supporting new social contracts should be the core objective of development cooperation with the region’s most conflict-affected countries. But “post-conflict reconstruction” often ignores the fact that conflicts do not end with peace agreements, and conflict-affected societies need more than reconstructed infrastructure, institutional capacity and private sector investment if they are to avoid violence in the future. Development agencies term this kind of cooperation “resilience”: promoting political, economic, social and environmental stability, rather than risking uncontrollable, revolutionary transformation. However, resilience has often provided cover for short-term measures aimed at preserving the position of particular actors and systems. Development cooperation needs to get beyond reconstruction and resilience approaches that often fail to foster the long-term stability they promise. By focussing on the social contract, development cooperation with conflict-affected countries can provide a crucial link between peacebuilding, reconstruction and longer-term socioeconomic and political development. It can thereby contribute not only to short-term, but also to long-term, sustainable stability. Using the social contract as an analytical lens can increase understanding not only of what donors should avoid doing, but also where they should concentrate their engagement during transitions from civil war. Practical examples from challenging contexts in the MENA region suggest that donors can make positive contributions in support of new social contracts when backing (a) stakeholder dialogues, (b) governance and reforms, and (c) socioeconomic inclusion. In Libya, the socioeconomic dialogue process has brought stakeholders together to outline a new economic vision for the country. The Municipal Development Programme in Palestine focusses on improving the accountability and delivery of local institutions. The Moroccan Economic, Social and Environmental Council provides an example of a process that engages previously marginalised groups. These programmes are all examples of targeted efforts to build cooperation among the groups that make up MENA societies. They aim to broaden decision-making processes, and to increase the impact of specific measures with the ultimate objective of improving state–society relations. They could be adapted for other fragile contexts, with external support. In backing more of these kinds of activities, donors could make stronger contributions to sustainable, long-term peace- and state-building processes in conflict-affected MENA countries.
- Topic:
- Development, Natural Resources, Conflict, Peace, and Social Contract
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Palestine, Algeria, North Africa, Lebanon, and Syria
77. Economic Interests, Political Conflicts, and External Interferences: The Complex Interlocking of the Libyan Crisis
- Author:
- Karim Mezran and Alessia Melcangi
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
- Abstract:
- In the last days of September 2020, Libya’s oil industry seemed to be on the verge of restarting its production after Gen. Khalifa Haftar announced the reopening of the oil fields and terminals that he had occupied and closed in the course of his offensive against Tripoli. The main damage caused by Haftar’s blockade is the dramatic plummet of oil production to less than 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) from the previous 1.2 million. The importance of the oil and gas industry in Libya cannot be underestimated since it is the main driver of the Libyan economy and accounts for about 60% of the country’s GDP. Oil production revenues and the dividends from oil sales are one of the main causes of the conflict that has been continuously ravaging the country since the fall of Muammar Qadhafi in 2011. The announced reopening represents good news that bodes well not only for a real resumption of political talks between the warring parties, but also for a more general improvement of the economic and social condition in the country, which is now on the verge of collapse. After the January 2020 blockade, the quick shutdown of oil sales led to a budget collapse: In April 2020, oil production data showed a drop of more than 80% with a loss of more than $10 billion in oil revenues. The economic impact of this stoppage directly hit the Tripoli-based National Oil Corporation (NOC), preventing the company from fulfilling contracts with international oil companies. After so many years of civil war, it has become evident that competition among various actors is principally over the country’s resources and control of its financial institutions. According to the 2015 UN-backed Libyan Political Agreement, the Tripoli government headed by Fayez Sarraj retains control of the Tripoli-based NOC and oversees the allocation of state funds deposited in the Tripoli-based Central Bank — these are the two channels through which oil revenues can flow legally and the only two institutions recognized by the UN Security Council. Haftar and the Eastern government accuse Tripoli of mismanaging hydrocarbon revenues and state funds, using them to fund militias backing the Government of National Accord (GNA), and failing to carry out reforms to stabilize the economy. For this reason, the Eastern authorities demand a change of leadership in both institutions: The Central Bank and the NOC. Indeed, the problem for Haftar has always been that he controlled oil production, but not oil revenues. After almost a year locked in a stalemate, the situation on the battlefield was reversed in April 2020. Thanks to Turkey’s military support, the GNA was able to counterattack and defeat the Haftar-controlled Libyan National Army (LNA) and push them back to the gates of the city of Sirte near the “oil crescent,” a coastal area home to most of Libya’s oil export terminals. The ceasefire proposed by the GNA at the end of August 2020 and accepted by the Tobruk parliament and its spokesman, Aguila Saleh, has restarted the political dialogue between the conflicting parties. Meanwhile, the malcontent of the population in both Tripoli and Benghazi, due to the deterioration of living conditions and lack of economic reforms, led to protests and demonstrations in both cities.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Economy, Conflict, and Proxy War
- Political Geography:
- Libya and North Africa
78. Caught in the Crossfire: Challenges to Migrant Protection in the Yemeni and Libyan Conflicts
- Author:
- Danielle Flanagan
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal on Migration and Human Security
- Institution:
- Center for Migration Studies of New York
- Abstract:
- In spite of the prevailing security dynamics in Yemen and Libya, both states continue to serve as areas of transit along some of the world’s largest mixed migration routes, leaving migrants caught in the crossfire of the two conflicts. This article examines the legal framework governing the protection of migrants in armed conflict under international humanitarian and human rights law. It also identifies two adverse incentives produced by the conflict situations that impede the exercise of these legal protections: (1) profits derived from migrant smuggling and trafficking, and (2) the use of migrants to support armed groups. In the absence of stable conditions in Yemen and Libya, individuals have little reason to respect international legal protections and discontinue migrant abuse connected with the lucrative businesses of smuggling and trafficking. The intractable nature of the two conflicts has also led to the strategic use of migrants as armed support, and more specifically as combatants, weapons transports, and human shields. Given these realities, the article outlines several recommendations to address the issue of migrant abuse in conflict. It recommends that states, particularly those neighboring Yemen and Libya, strengthen regular migration pathways to help reduce the number of migrants transiting through active conflict zones. It further advises that the international community increase the cost of non-compliance to international humanitarian law through the use of accountability mechanisms and through strategic measures, including grants of reciprocal respect to armed groups that observe protections accorded to migrants in conflict situations.
- Topic:
- Security, Migration, Human Trafficking, and Humanitarian Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Libya, and Yemen
79. Italy and the Libyan Crisis: What Lessons for Foreign Policy?
- Author:
- Camellia Mahjoubi
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Since 2011 the Libyan crisis has never stopped posing questions to the Italian political class and public opinion, showing all its relevance for the definition of the external action – either at the multilateral or bilateral level – of our country. From political mediation to the use of force, from the terrorist threat to the current COVID-19 crisis, from the management of irregular migration to the issue of human rights, Libya continues to represent an important test for Italy’s foreign policy. In recent months, the Libyan conflict has undergone important changes. International mediation under the lead of the United Nations and with the involvement of the regional actors seems to have lost steam and a new intensification of military operations has produced rapid changes in the balance of power on the ground. What have been Italy’s responses to the crisis? What are the objectives and the tools put in place? What lessons can we learn about the strengths and weaknesses of our foreign policy?
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Libya, North Africa, Italy, and North America
80. Libya and the COVID-19 Lifecycle: From Distraction to Dissidence
- Author:
- Anas El Gomati
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- COVID-19 has changed the world and the way we live it, establishing something of a “new normal” as states and societies battle the pandemic and learn to accommodate its multidimensional effects. For Libyans’ living in the midst of conflict, normality and a new normal are difficult to determine. The economy, healthcare system and everyday lives of Libyans’ have been far from normal as a result of the 18-month conflict sparked by General Khalifa Haftar’s attempt to overthrow the UN-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli. However, the pandemic and its dynamism has had an impact far beyond the everyday lives of citizens. The lifecycle of the pandemic has had a major impact on the conflict itself. It first served to distract international powers from their diplomatic obligations and peace building in Libya, acting as a cover for local factions and their foreign sponsors to intensify the conflict during the initial global shockwave of the pandemic at the beginning of 2020. Towards the end of 2020, however, the pandemic compounded socio-economic and political pressures in Libya, sparking national demonstrations and dissidence towards the rival factions, leading to political resignations and renewed diplomatic negotiations in the process.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Economy, Conflict, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Libya and North Africa
81. A Ceasefire with Feet of Clay: The Potential Spoilers of Peace in Libya
- Author:
- Dario Cristiani
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- On 23 October 2020, negotiators from the 5+5 Joint Military Commission, the dialogue format between the forces of the UN-recognised Government of the National Accord (GNA) and Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA), signed a ceasefire in Geneva. Two days later, the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) announced the launch of the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (LPDF), whose first round took place in Tunis between 9-15 November, after virtual sessions started on 28 October. Delegates agreed on a date for elections (24 December 2021) but not a new government, and will reconvene to continue negotiating at the end of November. While the announcement of the ceasefire and the political dialogue held in Tunis is obviously good news, the road ahead remains rife with challenges. The acting UNSMIL head, Stephanie Williams, has warned that many will seek, “for narrow personal and purposes, to corrupt and disrupt” the process. Looking ahead, four dynamics can spoil the process, undermining the prospects for a more sustainable political settlement in Libya: Haftar’s role; the situation of the global oil market; Turkey’s regional ambitions; and the economic interests of militia groups in Tripoli.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, United Nations, Conflict, Negotiation, Peace, and Ceasefire
- Political Geography:
- Libya and North America
82. Russia's Foreign and Security Policy in the Middle East: Entering the 2020s
- Author:
- Ekaterina Stepanova
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- As Russia has become a major external player in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region due to its military engagement in Syria since 2015, it has acted as a balancer and mediator in several regional controversies and has continued to serve as a security guarantor for the Syrian state. This course has brought Moscow some practical dividends, such as growing economic and military-technical cooperation with select MENA countries, and has spurred its broader international profile. However, entering the 2020s, the risks of more active engagement in the Middle East have also mounted, making Russia’s balancing act more difficult. In three cases where Russia’s involvement has been visible (Syria, Libya and the Israeli-Palestinian problem), evolving developments challenge Moscow’s acquired influence and multi-vector approach, but also create new opportunities for its engagement and mediation. Above all, the 2020 US–Iran crisis catalysed the urgent need for structured regional dialogue, especially across the Persian Gulf. While this requires direct interaction between the region’s main antagonists, the initial impulse to unlock the trans-Gulf impasse might need to come from the outside. A process-oriented blueprint for inclusive multilateral security in the Gulf proposed by Russia in 2019 is a step in the right direction, but to be activated it may need to come as part of some broader international initiative.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, Middle East, Israel, Libya, Palestine, North Africa, and Syria
83. Rise and Fall? The Rise and Fall of ISIS in Libya
- Author:
- Azeem Ibrahim
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- This monograph places events in Libya since 2011 into their historical and social context and argues a form of radical Islamism, linked to long-standing national defiance of outside control, remains a factor even after the defeat of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). This entrenched radicalism means extremist Islamist groups may still make a renewed bid for power until the current civil war is resolved. At the time of this writing, the military campaign by the Libyan National Army has stalled outside Tripoli. Now is the time for the United States and the wider international community to step up and help Libya transition to a unitary government with conventional elections. If this fails to happen and ISIS is able to exploit the current chaos, the hard-won victory over the group in Libya may yet turn out to have been illusory.
- Topic:
- Civil War, Radicalization, Islamic State, Conflict, Islamism, Khalifa Haftar, and Muammar Gaddafi
- Political Geography:
- Libya and North America
84. Searching for COVID-19 Ceasefires: Conflict Zone Impacts, Needs, and Opportunities
- Author:
- Tyler Jess Thompson
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- On March 23, 2020, as COVID-19 was first appearing in many conflict-affected areas, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres issued a call for warring parties to cease hostilities and instead wage battle against the pandemic. Drawing on an examination of conflicts in Afghanistan, Colombia, Cameroon, Israel and Palestine, Libya, the Philippines, Syria, Ukraine, and elsewhere—this report looks at how COVID-19 has affected conflict parties’ interests, positions, and capacities, and provides recommendation for how the international community leverage the pandemic to promote peace.
- Topic:
- United Nations, Conflict, Peace, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Ukraine, Israel, Libya, Philippines, Colombia, Palestine, Syria, Cameroon, and Global Focus
85. Illicit Drug Trafficking and Use in Libya: Highs and Lows
- Author:
- Fiona Mangan
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- This report explores how illicit drug trafficking and drug use in Libya has shaped and been shaped by the country’s ongoing conflict. Drawing on hundreds of interviews and dedicated research, it examines Libya’s pre-2011 illicit economy, delves into the social impact of drugs, and focuses on drug use on the frontlines of Libya’s ongoing conflict, the corrosive impact of drug trafficking and use on the justice and security sector, and how trafficking and organized crime undercut peacebuilding and state consolidation.
- Topic:
- Trafficking, Conflict, Peace, and Drugs
- Political Geography:
- Libya and North Africa
86. A Fragmented Society: The Internal Dynamics of Libya’s Conflict
- Author:
- Thomas Volk, Jason Pack, Younes Abouyoub, Emadeddin Badi, Jonathan Winer, Amanda Kadlec, Gerald Feierstein, Mohamed Eljarh, and Bouchra Rahmouni
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- While most discussions about the Libyan crisis revolve around geopolitics and international interference, internal divisions within Libya’s civil society and political institutions have also played a fundamental role in destabilizing the country since the fall of Moamar Gaddafi in 2012. Governance in Libya is fragmented with very few truly national actors. It also continues to lack political institutions that are seen by all Libyans as legitimate. The ongoing conflict consists of many contending local and tribal players, including spoilers who have demonstrated opposition to either peace or reconciliation except on the basis of total victory by their group. What are the major obstacles to stabilization? How can Libya approach the establishment of political institutions? In what ways can the international community support a Libyan-led peace process? The Middle East Institute, the Regional Program Political Dialogue South Mediterranean of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, and the Policy Center for the New South are pleased to jointly host a group of experts to discuss these questions and more in a closed roundtable format.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Conflict, Crisis Management, Peace, and Reconciliation
- Political Geography:
- Libya and North Africa
87. Unleashing a New Way of Warfare: How Turkey's Drones and Air Defence Systems Won the War for Tripoli
- Author:
- Nilsu Gören, Wolfgang Pusztai, Jason Pack, Mohamed Htweish, and Florence Gaub
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- Over the last year, a new form of extraterritorial air war has proved extremely decisive in military conflicts in both Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh. In both instances, the Turkish backed side has emerged victorious, despite initially being on the backfoot. In 2019, it seemed Tripoli was on the verge of falling to the forces of General Haftar's Libyan National Army (LNA.) The LNA had received military assistance in the forms of drones, mercenaries, and diplomatic support from the UAE, Egypt, and Russia. However, following an announced ceasefire, Turkey utilized the brief pause of fighting to turn the tide of battle by backing Haftar’s rival, the General National Council. The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to launch a recent publication, “Turning the Tide: How Turkey Won the War for Tripoli.” Why did Turkey decide to fully engage in Libya’s Second Civil War? What strategies and tactics did Turkey establish throughout its involvement? Which modern military technologies helped shape the outcome of the War for Tripoli? What are the next likely steps in the international community’s mediation efforts in Libya?
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, War, Drones, Conflict, and Proxy War
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Libya, and North Africa
88. Voices from Turkish Politics: A Conversation with H.E. Ahmet Davutoğlu
- Author:
- Gonul Tol and Ahmet Davutoğlu
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- The Middle East Institute’s Turkish Studies Program is pleased to welcome H.E. Ahmet Davutoğlu, former Foreign Minister and Prime Minister of Turkey, to discuss pressing issues in Turkey’s domestic and foreign policy. Since the Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power in 2002, Turkey has gone through an extraordinary transformation, one in which H.E. Davutoglu played a critical role. Please join us for this timely conversation, moderated by Turkish Studies Director Gonul Tol, which will delve into questions about that change as well as recent developments including the Turkish court decision to convert Hagia Sophia back into a mosque and Ankara's military presence in Libya.
- Topic:
- Politics, Domestic Politics, and AKP
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Libya
89. Geostrategic Dimensions of Libya’s Civil War
- Author:
- Tarek Megerisi
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- Libya’s civil war has become an increasingly competitive geostrategic struggle. A UN-brokered settlement supported by non-aligned states is the most viable means for a stable de-escalation, enabling Libya to regain its sovereignty.
- Topic:
- Civil War, Sovereignty, United States, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Libya, and North Africa
90. IS THE RESPONSIBILITY TO PROTECT DEAD? THE VIEW FROM LIBYA
- Author:
- Lisa Hultman
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- World leaders met recently in Berlin to discuss solutions for ending the civil conflict in Libya. The United Nations (UN)-backed government currently lacks control over large parts of the country, while the opposition is backed by several countries—Russia, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia, among others. Hundreds of people have been killed in the last year alone, and thousands displaced. This was surely not the anticipated outcome of the NATO-led military intervention in 2011—an intervention authorized by the UN and justified in the name of Responsibility to Protect (R2P), a doctrine adopted by the UN General Assembly in 2005, that commits countries and the international community to protect populations from genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing, and crimes against humanity. Libya is the only time in history that military intervention has been justified on the grounds of R2P.
- Topic:
- NATO, United Nations, Humanitarian Intervention, and Responsibility to Protect (R2P)
- Political Geography:
- Libya
91. Covid-19 and a Deepening Conflict Worsen Libya's Humanitarian Situation
- Author:
- Khayreddine Basha
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- The military conflict between Haftar and GNA forces in Libya continues to escalate, unaffected by Covid-19 or international calls for a ceasefire. A lack of coordination between the fighting parties and the ineffective implementation of measures to fight the spread of the pandemic further compound Libya’s worsening humanitarian situation. This paper explores Covid-19 impact on the health and humanitarian situation in Libya and examines the factors that contribute to the continuation of the conflict, including the incitement of international and regional actors involved in it.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Conflict, Public Health, Humanitarian Crisis, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Libya
92. R2P Monitor, Issue 53, 15 September 2020
- Author:
- Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Abstract:
- R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 53 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Cameroon, China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali and Burkina Faso, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Yemen, Mozambique, Burundi, Central African Republic, Libya, Nigeria, South Sudan, Sudan and Venezuela.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Crisis Management, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, China, Sudan, Libya, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mozambique, Syria, Venezuela, Nigeria, Burundi, Mali, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Global Focus, and Burkina Faso
93. R2P Monitor, Issue 52, 15 July 2020
- Author:
- Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Abstract:
- R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 52 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Cameroon, China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali and Burkina Faso, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Yemen, Burundi, Central African Republic, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories, Libya, Nigeria, South Sudan and Venezuela.
- Topic:
- International Law, Conflict, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, China, Israel, Libya, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Syria, Venezuela, Nigeria, Burundi, Mali, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Global Focus, and Burkina Faso
94. R2P Monitor, Issue 51, 15 May 2020
- Author:
- Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Abstract:
- R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 51 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Cameroon, China, Mali and Burkina Faso, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Yemen, Burundi, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Central African Republic, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories, Libya, Nigeria, South Sudan and Venezuela.
- Topic:
- International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, China, Israel, Libya, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Syria, Venezuela, Nigeria, Burundi, Mali, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Global Focus, and Burkina Faso
95. R2P Monitor, Issue 54, 15 November 2020
- Author:
- Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Abstract:
- R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 54 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Cameroon, China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali and Burkina Faso, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Venezuela, Yemen, Central African Republic, Ethiopia, Mozambique, Côte d’Ivoire, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories, Libya, Nagorno-Karabakh (Armenia/Azerbaijan), Nigeria and South Sudan.
- Topic:
- International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, China, Israel, Libya, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Mozambique, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Mali, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Côte d'Ivoire, Global Focus, Burkina Faso, and Nagorno-Karabakh
96. Algerian Constitutional Amendments Create Conditions for Military Intervention in Libya
- Author:
- Jacob Lees Weiss
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- On November 12, the Algerian Constitutional Council confirmed amendments that were approved in the country’s November 1 referendum, which allow the Algerian People’s National Armed Forces (APN) to participate in operations outside the country’s borders (El Khabar, November 12). Missions must be approved by a two-thirds majority in each parliamentary chamber and be within the framework of the objectives of the UN, the African Union, and the League of Arab Nations (al-Arab, October 25). The constitutional referendum was the flagship project of Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune, who has sought to distinguish his government from that of his predecessor, Abdelaziz Bouteflika.
- Topic:
- Constitution, Military Intervention, Conflict, and Referendum
- Political Geography:
- Libya, Algeria, and North Africa
97. Libya’s Civil War: US Abdication Providing a Playground for Foreign Intervention
- Author:
- Jonathan Winer
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Since Libyan warlord Khalifa Haftar initiated his effort to take Libya’s capital, Tripoli, by force on April 4, 2019, Libya has remained in a state of full-on civil war. The conflict involves not only competing forces within the country, but also foreign powers using Libyan clients as proxies for their regional interests. These external actors—primarily the United Arab Emirates, Russia, and Turkey, plus a host of supporting players—continue to exacerbate the chaos as they maneuver for long-term power. Meanwhile, the United States is absent.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Civil War, Military Intervention, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Libya, North Africa, North America, and United States of America
98. Beyond the Ceasefire in Libya
- Author:
- Anas El Gomati and Ben Fishman
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Publicly committing to a ceasefire is a positive development, but many details still need to be resolved with active U.S. support, especially security arrangements in central Libya and the speedy resumption of oil exports. On August 21, the political leaders of the two main factions in Libya’s civil war—Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj of the Government of National Accord (GNA) and Speaker Aguila Saleh of the eastern-based House of Representatives—issued separate statements declaring a ceasefire and a freeze in military positions around Sirte and al-Jufrah. The move followed extensive diplomatic efforts by Germany, the United States, and the UN. Many of the deal’s terms will require further negotiation, but so far they entail establishing a demilitarized zone in central Libya and lifting the oil blockade that has cost the country $8 billion to date. Saleh also called for reformatting the Presidential Council and moving it from Tripoli to Sirte, while Sarraj called for holding national elections next March. The announcements grew out of the stalemate that set in after GNA-aligned forces pushed to the outskirts of Sirte in June. Since then, Egypt and Turkey have escalated their threats of direct military action, spurring intensified Western diplomacy to stave off a regional war. Of particular significance is Saleh replacing eastern military commander Khalifa Haftar in the negotiations. The latter’s sponsors in the United Arab Emirates and Egypt lost confidence in him after his fourteen-month offensive against Tripoli collapsed this May. In response to the new ceasefire, Haftar’s spokesman in the so-called Libyan National Army (LNA) dismissed Sarraj’s statement, vowed to remain in Sirte, and completely ignored Saleh’s parallel statement, indicating deep divisions in east Libya and raising questions about who has authority over the LNA’s fighting forces. Saleh has not been a reliable diplomatic interlocutor in the past and remains under U.S. sanctions for obstructing the 2015 Libyan Political Agreement. Thus, while Haftar is politically marginalized for now, he or other eastern commanders could still undermine the ceasefire.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Oil, Conflict, Proxy War, and Ceasefire
- Political Geography:
- Libya and North Africa
99. Essential Players: How do ‘Mercenaries’ affect conflicts in the Middle East?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- The utilization of mercenaries has become one of the key predicaments in the Middle East, particularly in the hotbeds of armed conflict, including Libya, Yemen and Syria. Such militia are usually transferred through the use of civil flights, crossing land borders or smuggling through organized crime networks. This has been reflected by numerous evidence including the escalating tensions between the international powers such as ‘France’ and regional ones such as ‘Turkey’, even affecting the mutual hostility between the ‘Syrian Democratic Forces’ and Ankara, and the latter's policy aiming at disturbing Libya's neighboring countries. In the case of Yemen, the Houthi militia and Islah party have also used African mercenaries. It is further evident in the warning given by the Yemeni government to ‘Tehran Mercenaries’ against turning Yemen into a battlefield after the murder of Qassem Soleimani.
- Topic:
- War, Non State Actors, Houthis, Militias, and Mercenaries
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Turkey, Middle East, France, Libya, Yemen, North Africa, and Syria
100. Turkey, Libya and the Mediterranean Carve Up
- Author:
- Paul Rivlin
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- The civil war that has prevailed in Libya since the fall of the Qaddafi regime in 2011 has become increasingly internationalized. Foreign powers have taken sides in the war, supplying weapons, mercenaries and other support. In recent months, Turkey’s increased intervention in support of the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA) has added another element to the internationalization of the conflict. In order to obtain military support, the GNA has allied itself with Turkey’s plan to gain control of access to the Eastern Mediterranean and its gas-fields. This poses a threat to Greece, Cyprus, Israel and Egypt, who are all cooperating in the utilization of those fields and the possible development of pipelines to Europe.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Oil, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Libya, and North America