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22. Towards a Renewed Local Social and Political Covenant in Libya, Syria and Yemen
- Author:
- Ahmed Morsy
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
- Abstract:
- This SIPRI Insights Paper examines the domestic and external factors at play in Libya, Syria and Yemen and their impact on negotiating post-war peaceful settlements and shaping prospective social contracts. The paper’s argument is two-fold. Firstly, policymaking must move beyond a static approach to understanding these conflicts. Despite apparent stalemates, the three countries should be approached as ever-evolving simmering conflicts. Secondly, policymakers have to move below the national level in order to achieve various forms of localized social peace. Given the nature of these conflicts and the varied sub-national segmentation, the analysis concludes that community-level social and political covenants may offer a first building block towards nationwide social contracts and sustainable conflict resolution. The role of external actors, particularly the European Union (EU), is critical in paving the way for these local-level dialogues and negotiations in Libya, Syria and Yemen. In short, external powers, including the EU, should adopt policies that push for long-term resolution to achieve post-conflict stabilization rather than the opportunistic taking of sides.
- Topic:
- Politics, Arab Spring, Social Contract, and Society
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Libya, Yemen, North Africa, and Syria
23. Libya Country Report 2021-2022
- Author:
- Arab Barometer
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Arab Barometer
- Abstract:
- After seeing their hopes for elections in late 2021 crushed, Libyans are growing frustrated at the incompetence of the political class and its failure to resolve the country’s ongoing crises. Libyans perceive foreign actors as contributors to, if not inciters of, the conflict and want to see Libyan-led efforts to reconcile the country’s divisions. Trust in most political institutions is diminishing and belief in the prevalence of corruption is high. Libyans are generally dissatisfied with the government’s performance and public services, though evaluations have improved slightly compared to the ratings in 2019. The economic situation in Libya has deteriorated with inflation and liquidity issues hindering people’s abilities to meet their basic needs. At the same time, there has been a significant decline in optimism regarding the country’s economic future while perceptions of inequality are increasing. All these issues have resulted in popular discontent, which ultimately led to widespread protests in July 2022. The protestors’ demands ranged from a better electricity supply to dissolution of all political bodies and the holding of elections. Those in power, however, attempted to utilize the protests for their own political infighting without taking any concrete steps tomeet popular demands. Thesemaneuvers reinforce the growing frustration Libyans hold toward democracy. There is now a growing belief that democratic regimes are weak economically, inefficient, and incapable of stabilizing the country. Nevertheless, only a minority of Libyans have considered leaving the country. Among those who have, the primary driver is economic reasons.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Corruption, Environment, Gender Issues, Politics, Governance, Democracy, Economy, Institutions, COVID-19, and Political Participation
- Political Geography:
- Libya and North Africa
24. Return and Recuperation Strategies on Returnees to Nigeria: The Libya Episode
- Author:
- A.J. Aluko, D.O. Apeloko, and Bello M. Ayodele
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
- Institution:
- Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
- Abstract:
- The paper examined the strategies put in place by the governmental agencies for the reintegration of returnees. Primary and secondary data were utilized for the study. Preliminary data were collected through the administration of questionnaires and interviews. The study population (10,369) comprised the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA, 34), National Agency against Trafficking in Persons and other related crime (NAPTIP, 108), International Organisation for Migration (IOM, 34), Nigeria in Diaspora Commission (NiDCOM, 15) and Nigeria returnees (10,180) from Libya. The sample for the study was made up of 399 respondents. The distribution is as follows: NEMA (17), NAPTIP (54), IOM (16), NiDCOM (15), and returnees (297). Secondary data will be obtained from decision extracts of the agencies on matters relating to the subject matter, conciliation meetings, and internet sources. Data collected were analyzed using frequency, distribution, percentage, and Chi-square. The study showed the effect of strategies put in place by governmental agencies, which have enhanced the economic development of the returnees; reduced irregular or illegal migration to Europe through the Libya route; returnees’ psychological rehabilitation of returnees in Nigeria. Furthermore, the Chisquare analysis showed that the x2 cal (9.2) is greater than x2 tab (5.99); hence, the rejection of the null hypothesis and it founds a significant relationship between government agencies and the returnees’ reintegration. The study concluded that governmental agencies' strategies have an effect on the reintegration of the returnees.
- Topic:
- Crime, Development, Migration, Governance, and Humanitarian Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Libya
25. Reckless Abandon: Why Tunisia Can No Longer Delay a Border Free Trade Zone
- Author:
- Hamza Meddeb
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- In 2012, Tunisia announced the establishment of a free trade and logistics zone (FTZ) in Ben Guerdane, near the Libyan border. The aim is to develop marginalized southeastern border regions and formalize informal economic actors. However, the plan has stalled due to institutional resistance, political divisions, and an incapacity to exploit international geopolitical rivalries. If this persists, the project may become irrelevant because of emerging FTZs in Libya, denying Tunisia revenues its ailing economy needs.
- Topic:
- Geopolitics, Economy, Borders, and Free Trade
- Political Geography:
- Libya, North Africa, and Tunisia
26. From Warlords to Statelords: Armed Groups and Power Trajectories in Libya and Yemen
- Author:
- Eleanore Ardemagni and Federica Saini Fasanotti
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
- Abstract:
- Armed groups play a central role in Libya and Yemen. Pervading weak and contested institutions, they have gradually brought their survival, profit and governance strategies under the state umbrella: warlords have become the new lords of the state. Armed groups control most of the energy revenues, critical infrastructure, smuggling and illicit trafficking. Their leaders are multifaceted: they are simultaneously military commanders, tribal chiefs, politicians and businessmen. Combining comparative analysis and case studies, this Report sheds light on the “economic face” of the armed groups and their power trajectories. How do armed groups build networks of profit and loyalty in the territories they hold? How does clientelism mark a continuity trend with former authoritarian regimes?
- Topic:
- Non State Actors, Governance, Armed Forces, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Libya, Yemen, and North Africa
27. Limited Outcome: UNSC Resolution 2656 fails to solve the Libyan Crisis
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- The United Nations Security Council Resolution, on October 28, 2022, unanimously voted to extend the mandate of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) for twelve months. It urged all Libyan parties and key stakeholders to agree on a new road map to deliver presidential and parliamentary elections as soon as possible and form a Libyan unified government able to govern across the country.
- Topic:
- United Nations, Conflict, Crisis Management, and UN Security Council
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Libya
28. Deepening the Divide: How do regional and international actors impact war-torn Libya
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Months of political and military stalemate speak volumes of the effects of regional and international intervention in Libya. And with multitude of players seek to break the deadlock, Libya may brace itself for a new political episode that might transpire in the coming period.
- Topic:
- Politics, Military Intervention, Conflict, and International Community
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Libya
29. Policing the police: The EU’s struggle to strengthen the Libyan security sector
- Author:
- Matteo Colombo and Nienke van Heukelingen
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- More than ten years after the ousting of Gaddafi, the Libyan police under the Ministry of Interior are still struggling to effectively carry out their duties across the country. Drawing from 25 interviews conducted with experts, Libyan police officers, civil servants of the Ministry of Interior, and EU officers between June and August 20221, our research found four main obstacles facing the Libyan police force in Western Libya. These are: i) the proliferation of armed groups; ii) divisions within the ruling elite; iii) administrative mismanagement in the security system; and iv) the presence of alternative conflict-resolution mechanisms. It also emerged that each area comes with its own challenges. Against that background, this policy brief calls for a change in EU policies. We suggest that EU member states align on specific and measurable goals and take a more adaptive and incremental approach. More specifically, the EU could consider identifying a set of measurable and achievable objectives and adapting its policies to the different contexts in which it operates, tailoring its priorities and timescales to different locations.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Armed Forces, European Union, and Police
- Political Geography:
- Libya and North Africa
30. International Criminal Justice for Irregular Migrants? The Case of Libya Regarding Atrocities Committed at Detention Camps
- Author:
- Ana Luz Manzano Ortiz
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Public International Law Policy Group
- Abstract:
- Abuses committed or tolerated by authorities against foreigners with an unauthorized stay, also referred to as “irregular migrants,” are common. Cases like these have mostly been litigated by civil organizations under human rights law. However, there are situations where international criminal law can also serve as a tool to seek justice. An example of this is Libya, where NGOs have denounced militias’ practices of targeting irregular migrants through torture, kidnappings, forced recruitment, and killings. In order to seek accountability for this situation, NGOs have asked the International Criminal Court (ICC) to investigate the situation in Libya. On January 17, 2022, a group of NGOs, composed of Adala for All, StraLi, and UpRights, presented a communication under Article 15 of the Rome Statute to the ICC, asking the Office of the Prosecutor to investigate potential crimes in Libya. This contribution examines the turn from international human rights law (IHRL) to international criminal law (ICL) in light of this particular situation in Libya.
- Topic:
- Accountability, Detention, International Criminal Law (ICL), and Irregular Migration
- Political Geography:
- Libya and North Africa
31. Building security: How Europeans can help reform Libya
- Author:
- Roberta Maggi
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- Since 2011, divided governance structures in Libya have weakened the state’s monopoly on the use of force, as have the proliferation of armed groups and their gradual infiltration of security institutions across the country. One of the persistent errors of disarmament, demobilisation, and reintegration in Libya is the assumption that combatants can be bought off. Another is the assumption that security sector reform (SSR) depends on the right personalities rather than systems and processes. Europeans’ short-term stabilisation imperatives – notoriously, those related to migration and counter-terrorism – have repeatedly led to reactive policymaking that only deepens instability. For Europeans to play a meaningful SSR role, they will need a shared strategy and operational principles. But they will also need to recognise that they will initially have limited room for manoeuvre and that this will be a medium- to long-term effort. In the short term, Europeans should support the establishment of a Libyan-owned SSR body that can lead nationwide efforts in conjunction with UN diplomacy. This should be accompanied by a greater focus on strengthening bottom-up security initiatives that can help stabilise the country and restore European influence.
- Topic:
- Security, Reform, Political stability, and Foreign Assistance
- Political Geography:
- Libya and North Africa
32. Paradoxical Africanisation of Libya after 2011. Growing influence of sub- Saharan African government, rebel, diplomatic and criminal actors in the post-Gaddafi state
- Author:
- Jędrzej Czerep
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- IEMed/EuroMeSCo
- Abstract:
- The 2011 downfall of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi marked a tipping point for Libya’s southern neighbours in re-defining their roles on the regional north-south axis. The era of an assertive Libyan foreign policy on Africa came to a halt. Simultaneously, as a consequence of the civil war, multiple African actors, both state and non-state, assumed greater influence inside and over Libya. The country moved from being an exporter of security and insecurity to sub-Saharan Africa, as under Gaddafi, to becoming an importer. Some aspects of this largely unnoticed, multi-dimensional “Africanisation” [1] of Libya are likely to take root. Changes in Libya’s and sub-Saharan African actors’ standings within the regional setting represent a new reality on the ground that has not been contextualised and analysed thoroughly enough. Only when the international actors do so will they be able to adequately navigate and constructively engage social, political and security structures within the Libya- sub-Saharan Africa framework. Thus, this paper aims to answer the following research questions: in which specific north-south security-related phenomena did sub-Saharan African actors assume agency? Are the motivations of the actors involved opportunistic or do they include long-term political goals? Which aspects of “Africanisation” are taking solid roots and could be sustained beyond the period of Libya’s instability? Will this change to the regional order be temporary and reversible? What are the implications for the European Union (EU) policies related to peace, security and governance in Libya? For the research, several interviews with representatives of the regional armed groups, policy advisors, policy-makers and researchers with an insightful understanding of local and regional dynamics have been conducted since 2018, including during field research in Sudan in 2019. Those have been supplemented by a comprehensive review of existing literature on cross-border conflict dynamics in the Libya-Sudan-Chad-Niger borderlands, Libya-sub-Saharan African relations and relevant documents of international organisations. Historical methods focusing on the long-term and comprehensive processes seen within a big picture are being supplemented with an analytical approach seeking logical consequences and formulating predictions out of hard data and a comparative approach, where models, institutions and experiences are put together with more or less adequate processes found elsewhere.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Governance, Leadership, and Transition
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Libya
33. Fragile States Index 2022 – Annual Report
- Author:
- Nate Haken, Daniel Woodburn, Juliette Gallo-Carelli, Asa Cooper, and Dylan Souquet
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Fund for Peace
- Abstract:
- The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Fragile States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.
- Topic:
- Territorial Disputes, Elections, Fragile States, Political stability, Violence, Crisis Management, Innovation, and Reconciliation
- Political Geography:
- Sudan, Libya, Brazil, South America, North Africa, Haiti, Somalia, Mali, Guinea, Sahel, Global Focus, and Lake Chad Basin
34. Turkey’s Involvement in the Libyan Conflict, the Geopolitics of the Eastern Mediterranean and Drone Warfare
- Author:
- Buğra Süsler
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- LSE IDEAS
- Abstract:
- Dr Buğra Süsler’s Strategic Update explains Turkish foreign policy-making around a fragile Libya, highlighting its impact on power dynamics in the North Africa and the Middle East, as well as opening a gateway to sub-Saharan Africa. The paper addresses Turkey’s regional economic and political motives, the AKP’s increasingly hawkish use of hard power – especially the diplomatic and ethical implications of the Turkish military’s specialisation in drone warfare – and Ankara’s desire to maintain mutually beneficial relations with Libyan power-brokers key to post-civil war reconstruction.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Drones, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Libya, North Africa, and Mediterranean
35. The Role of EU in the Libyan Conflict
- Author:
- Mehmet Bardakci
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
- Institution:
- Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
- Abstract:
- Europe was marginalized in the Libyan conflict, not the least because the conflict exposed foreign policy flaws concerning a lack of coherence and cohesion. Working at cross purposes, European states were more interested in fulfilling their parochial interests than making an effort to give a typical response to the Libyan conflict. At the same time, the shortcomings related to tools and strategies in the European Neighborhood Policy (ENP) helped prevent the EU from adopting an influential position. This lack of a joint European position enabling it to play a significant role in the Libyan civil strife facilitated the functions of rival countries, such as Russia in Libya, leaving the EU sidelined.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, European Union, Military Intervention, and Political Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, and Libya
36. Civil Society & Political Transformations (Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy, Fall 2021)
- Author:
- Ghazi Ghazi
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Eleven years after the 2011 Arab Spring, feelings of transformation and change still reverberate throughout the region. The Spring 2022 edition, Civil Society and Political Transformations, seeks to illuminate how civil society organizations operate in the region and their effects on political transformations.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Education, Human Rights, Migration, Politics, Race, History, Reform, Women, Constitution, Arab Spring, Syrian War, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Baath Party, and Peacebuilding
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Iraq, South Asia, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Libya, Yemen, Palestine, North Africa, Syria, Jordan, Morocco, and United Arab Emirates
37. Youth and the Future of Libya
- Author:
- Asma Khalifa
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- When young people took to the streets during the 2011 uprisings, they set in motion a shift in Libyan socio-economic dynamics that remains partially captured or understood. Chief among our collective blind spots are the consequences of war on young people that have had to survive through difficult circumstances. Building on discussions with Libyan youth, this paper sets out the obstacles to their political integration and puts forward what they see as priorities and recommendations for reconstruction and reconciliation in Libya.
- Topic:
- Reform, Arab Spring, Youth, and Youth Movement
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Libya
38. Why Elections Won’t Happen in Libya
- Author:
- Asma Khalifa
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- The 2021 agreement on holding elections was perceived by many Libyans as the light at the end of the dark tunnel of civil war and a reset to the political stagnation and the legal crisis. More than 2.5 million Libyans registered to vote, only for them to watch on the media a deliberate sabotage by those who were trusted in the process to commit to the agreement. While Libya is again setting the ground for future elections, this paper puts forward three points on why elections will not happen in Libya.
- Topic:
- Government, Democracy, Conflict, and Voting
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Libya
39. Libyan Youth in Limbo: Coming of Age in Conflict
- Author:
- Asma Khalifa
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- This study seeks to understand how the transition to adulthood for Libyan youth has been impacted by the context of the past 10 years in conflict. Through in-depth qualitative research carried out with 75 Libyan youth in 2020-2021, the study explores decision-making processes and the types of opportunities and constraints that youth face in terms of education and livelihood, the impact of war on their political beliefs and participation, their understandings of peace and security, and the ways in which war has changed gender norms and relations. The study finds that 2014 represents the pivotal year in terms of their personal trajectories, their critical understandings of dynamics of war and peace, and their own personal sense of wellbeing and hope for the future. With regards to livelihood and employment paths, youth trajectories reveal a complicated dynamic, where opportunities come at a price or with consequences that are counterproductive. On one hand, the conflict in Libya has dismantled old repressive structures, and in the absence of that, there are chances of more independent and ingenious efforts to improve livelihoods. For nearly all participants, for example, the preferred choice of study actually expanded as a result of the opening of society and the political sphere in 2011. Likewise, dynamics of necessity since 2011 have seen the emergence of a new culture for entrepreneurship that is innovative and resilient. Yet at the same time, the destruction of war means that education pathways have been cut short and that the infrastructure needed to make entrepreneurship sustainable for young people, such as a strong financial system and operating legal framework, does not exist. In regards to political beliefs and participation, many youth attest that the 2011 uprising served as a political awakening of sorts, creating new interest in politics and political processes. However, the descent into war has had an almost universally negative impact on their view towards politics and politicians. Deep distrust in politics and a widespread belief in the systemic depths of corruption translates to pervasive apathy for formal political processes and participation. Yet at the same time, Libyan youth who have come into adulthood in a context of conflict have nuanced views regarding how peace can be constructed and the responsibilities required for this peacebuilding process at different levels. This includes the necessity of rehabilitation and the promotion of tolerance, respect for differences, and values of coexistence – all of which must be carried out both by the State, but also critically by communities themselves. For peace to truly exist, though, youth insist on the necessity for justice as a prerequisite. With regards to social relations and gender norms, the conflict has had a dualistic impact on both challenging and reinforcing traditional tropes of masculinity and femininity. Because of extreme loss of economic wellbeing, women youth have found themselves in new jobs, with new responsibilities, and in new public spaces that sometimes break away from traditional gender norms. Yet at the same time, the conflict has also reinforced norms regarding masculinity and the role of men in the family and society. As a result, while youth participating in this study do acknowledge profound shifts in the gender roles and gender relations, the extent to which this is viewed as something positive to be maintained in the post-conflict period is much less certain. Overall, the study finds that youth, facing important psychological trauma and in a perpetual state of uncertainty and instability, have little hope for the future and little ability to plan for their lives. The most reliable strategy they have adopted is that of flexibility and adaptability, with most viewing life outside of Libya as the only real option for the future. In other words, young people are seeking to build their lives elsewhere. Their lack of trust in politics and in the ability that they have to effect change means that core issues related to the resolving conflict and building peace, such as economic and political reform, will continue to be a problem without the younger generation taking active part in contributing to rebuilding of the country. This new generation no longer has the mentality of relying only on the State, but believes instead on pursuing good educational and work opportunities that are more personally fulfilling. They are also acutely aware of the extremely difficult environment in which they try to study or work in, as well as the lack of a broader context that can support them. For youth in Libya today, the pervasive feeling is that they are not safe and cannot set deep roots for fear everything will collapse.
- Topic:
- Security, Education, Youth, Conflict, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Libya
40. Beyond Turkey’s ‘zero problems’ policy Motives, means and impact of the interventions in Syria, Libya and the South Caucasus
- Author:
- Nienke van Heukelingen and Bob Deen
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- Since the Arab uprisings in 2011, but especially after the failed coup d’état in 2016, Turkey’s foreign policy has shifted from ‘zero problems’ to the pursuit of strategic depth and autonomy in its neighbourhood. In 2020, Syria, Libya and the South Caucasus became three theatres for Ankara’s new hard-power tactics, a policy that may well be here to stay (at least until the elections in 2023). This policy brief explores the strategic motives, the means of intervention and the impact of Turkish operations in these three conflict areas. While Turkey’s strategic considerations, modalities and consequences vary greatly from case to case, certain parallels can be drawn. They reveal an overall pattern of a much more assertive Turkey that is increasingly willing to deploy a combination of political and military means to secure its strategic objectives in its immediate neighbourhood.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Conflict, Strategic Interests, and Hard Power
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Libya, Syria, and South Caucasus