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11. Giorgia Meloni’s Foreign Policy and the Mattei Plan for Africa: Balancing Development and Migration Concerns

Author:
Karim Mezran and Alissa Pavia
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Despite Italy’s economic significance as the Eurozone’s third-largest economy and founding member of the G7 and NATO, the country has struggled to translate its economic power into political influence. Yet, with Giorgia Meloni’s ascent to power, Italy’s approach to foreign policy appears to be evolving. In fact, since the very beginning of her term, Meloni displayed a rather bold approach towards reshaping Italy’s international status. As the President of the Council of Ministers – analogous to the post of Prime Minister in other countries – Meloni has adopted a distinct posture in addressing issues related to the Southern Mediterranean. Since taking office in October 2022, Meloni has made numerous visits to North Africa, engaging in a diplomatic offensive aimed at reinvigorating Italian policies. In January this year, following in the footsteps of former Prime Minister Mario Draghi, Meloni travelled to Algeria on her first bilateral visit abroad. Algeria is an instrumental country for Italy due to its vast hydrocarbon reserves and geographical proximity.[1] In 2022, Draghi paved the way for Algeria to become Italy’s top energy supplier, replacing Russia and thus allowing for a swift decoupling from Moscow as the Ukraine war rages on and energy prices continue to soar. Meloni’s posture in Algeria seeks to evidence her willingness to move beyond a mere set of energy memorandums and broaden Italy’s foreign policy to include strategic diplomacy with long-term goals. She described Algeria as Italy’s “most stable, strategic and long-standing” partner in North Africa,[2] and reassured President Tebboune that Italy stands by Algeria. The country has recently felt cornered following Morocco’s joining of the Abraham Accords, a feeling few other countries aside from Italy had the courage to assuage and which had pushed Algeria further towards Russia and China as a result. Meloni’s activism in North Africa did not end there. The prime minister and her cabinet promoted high-level missions and diplomatic efforts with Libyan government officials, allowing Italy to reap diplomatic wins in the energy field. In January, a few weeks after visiting Algeria, Meloni flew to Tripoli for a meeting with Libya’s UN-backed Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh. The visit led to the signing of an 8 billion US dollars gas deal between Italian energy company Eni and Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC).[3]
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Migration, and Giorgia Meloni
Political Geography:
Africa, Libya, Algeria, and Italy

12. Full, Equal, Meaningful, and Safe: Creating Enabling Environments for Women’s Participation in Libya

Author:
Catherine Turner and Aisling Swaine
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
Historically, the women, peace, and security (WPS) agenda’s four pillars—prevention, protection, participation, and relief and recovery—have largely developed along separate trajectories. This has started to change with the UN Security Council’s recent progress in recognizing the link between women’s participation in peace and security and their protection, as well as the need to create “enabling environments” for women’s participation. Nonetheless, there is often a gap between international frameworks on participation and protection and the realities experienced by women, especially in conflict-affected contexts. To address that gap, this paper analyzes the experiences of women in Libya and the obstacles they face when participating in peace and security and political processes. Using an ecological framework, it details the risks that women who participate encounter at six levels: individual, interpersonal, community, national institutional, societal, and global institutional. Through this analysis, the report deepens the evidence for and understanding of the critical relationship between protection and participation, broadens analysis of and provides pointers for the mainstreaming of WPS in UN mission mandates, and provides a new framework to advance the creation of safe and enabling environments for women’s participation. In order to advance women’s full, equal, meaningful, and safe participation, the report offers the following recommendations. For the Security Council and member states: Continue to build on progress on mainstreaming WPS in mission mandates; Prioritize the implementation of Resolution 2493’s provision on creating “enabling environments” for women’s participation; and Ensure gender advisers with context-specific expertise are mandated and properly resourced in all UN missions. For UN missions, agencies, and partners: Conduct context-specific participation and protection analyses; Strengthen coordination between the UN missions, UN agencies, and other international organizations working on related issues to address the full range of protection-related barriers to women’s participation; and Ensure a gender-sensitive approach to the use of digital tools for participation to reflect the increased risks to women in online environments.
Topic:
Security, Women, Peace, Participation, Equality, and WPS
Political Geography:
Libya and North Africa

13. Türkiye in the MENA Region: A Foreign Policy Reset

Author:
Valeria Talbot
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
In recent years, Türkiye's foreign policy has been driven by efforts to reset relations with regional competitors in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Against a backdrop of disruption caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as well as the redefinition of the US role in the region, Ankara’s renewed diplomatic activism has been guided by the willingness to break from regional isolation, as well as the need to relieve Türkiye’s deteriorating economy. How did Türkiye ditch its ideological approach in the wake of the 2011 Arab uprisings to adopt a more pragmatic stance? And how is the process of rapprochement with other key actors in the MENA region playing out – namely Gulf monarchies, Israel and Egypt?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Regional Power
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and United Arab Emirates

14. Revenge, Revisionism, or Reconciliation? Libya after the Arab Spring

Author:
Marieke Wierda and Suliman Ibrahim
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
In September 2023, heavy rains in Libya caused two dams to break. Muddy floodwaters ripped through the town of Derna, dividing it in half and destroy- ing everything in their way, causing at least 10,000 deaths.1 This single natural disaster killed more people than the violence that has plagued Libya since its Revolution, but in many ways, it was man-made. The failure of the dams and the decaying infrastructure result from the political rifts that have dominated Libya for a decade. The disaster has once again prompted debate in Libyan so- ciety on how to achieve justice for the lives lost, in this case due to negligence and corruption. Since 2011, Libyans have been waiting for justice for lives lost, be it during the rule of Muammar Gaddafi or during the turbulent period that followed. The absence of accountability hinders the formation of a new social contract through reconciliation.
Topic:
Arab Spring, Transitional Justice, Reconciliation, and Muammar Gaddafi
Political Geography:
Libya and North Africa

15. Building security: How Europeans can help reform Libya

Author:
Roberta Maggi
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Since 2011, divided governance structures in Libya have weakened the state’s monopoly on the use of force, as have the proliferation of armed groups and their gradual infiltration of security institutions across the country. One of the persistent errors of disarmament, demobilisation, and reintegration in Libya is the assumption that combatants can be bought off. Another is the assumption that security sector reform (SSR) depends on the right personalities rather than systems and processes. Europeans’ short-term stabilisation imperatives – notoriously, those related to migration and counter-terrorism – have repeatedly led to reactive policymaking that only deepens instability. For Europeans to play a meaningful SSR role, they will need a shared strategy and operational principles. But they will also need to recognise that they will initially have limited room for manoeuvre and that this will be a medium- to long-term effort. In the short term, Europeans should support the establishment of a Libyan-owned SSR body that can lead nationwide efforts in conjunction with UN diplomacy. This should be accompanied by a greater focus on strengthening bottom-up security initiatives that can help stabilise the country and restore European influence.
Topic:
Security, Reform, Political stability, and Foreign Assistance
Political Geography:
Libya and North Africa

16. Paradoxical Africanisation of Libya after 2011. Growing influence of sub- Saharan African government, rebel, diplomatic and criminal actors in the post-Gaddafi state

Author:
Jędrzej Czerep
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
The 2011 downfall of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi marked a tipping point for Libya’s southern neighbours in re-defining their roles on the regional north-south axis. The era of an assertive Libyan foreign policy on Africa came to a halt. Simultaneously, as a consequence of the civil war, multiple African actors, both state and non-state, assumed greater influence inside and over Libya. The country moved from being an exporter of security and insecurity to sub-Saharan Africa, as under Gaddafi, to becoming an importer. Some aspects of this largely unnoticed, multi-dimensional “Africanisation” [1] of Libya are likely to take root. Changes in Libya’s and sub-Saharan African actors’ standings within the regional setting represent a new reality on the ground that has not been contextualised and analysed thoroughly enough. Only when the international actors do so will they be able to adequately navigate and constructively engage social, political and security structures within the Libya- sub-Saharan Africa framework. Thus, this paper aims to answer the following research questions: in which specific north-south security-related phenomena did sub-Saharan African actors assume agency? Are the motivations of the actors involved opportunistic or do they include long-term political goals? Which aspects of “Africanisation” are taking solid roots and could be sustained beyond the period of Libya’s instability? Will this change to the regional order be temporary and reversible? What are the implications for the European Union (EU) policies related to peace, security and governance in Libya? For the research, several interviews with representatives of the regional armed groups, policy advisors, policy-makers and researchers with an insightful understanding of local and regional dynamics have been conducted since 2018, including during field research in Sudan in 2019. Those have been supplemented by a comprehensive review of existing literature on cross-border conflict dynamics in the Libya-Sudan-Chad-Niger borderlands, Libya-sub-Saharan African relations and relevant documents of international organisations. Historical methods focusing on the long-term and comprehensive processes seen within a big picture are being supplemented with an analytical approach seeking logical consequences and formulating predictions out of hard data and a comparative approach, where models, institutions and experiences are put together with more or less adequate processes found elsewhere.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Governance, Leadership, and Transition
Political Geography:
Africa and Libya

17. Fragile States Index 2022 – Annual Report

Author:
Nate Haken, Daniel Woodburn, Juliette Gallo-Carelli, Asa Cooper, and Dylan Souquet
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Fund for Peace
Abstract:
The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Fragile States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.
Topic:
Territorial Disputes, Elections, Fragile States, Political stability, Violence, Crisis Management, Innovation, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:
Sudan, Libya, Brazil, South America, North Africa, Haiti, Somalia, Mali, Guinea, Sahel, Global Focus, and Lake Chad Basin

18. Turkey’s Involvement in the Libyan Conflict, the Geopolitics of the Eastern Mediterranean and Drone Warfare

Author:
Buğra Süsler
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
Dr Buğra Süsler’s Strategic Update explains Turkish foreign policy-making around a fragile Libya, highlighting its impact on power dynamics in the North Africa and the Middle East, as well as opening a gateway to sub-Saharan Africa. The paper addresses Turkey’s regional economic and political motives, the AKP’s increasingly hawkish use of hard power – especially the diplomatic and ethical implications of the Turkish military’s specialisation in drone warfare – and Ankara’s desire to maintain mutually beneficial relations with Libyan power-brokers key to post-civil war reconstruction.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Drones, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Turkey, Libya, North Africa, and Mediterranean

19. The Role of EU in the Libyan Conflict

Author:
Mehmet Bardakci
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
Europe was marginalized in the Libyan conflict, not the least because the conflict exposed foreign policy flaws concerning a lack of coherence and cohesion. Working at cross purposes, European states were more interested in fulfilling their parochial interests than making an effort to give a typical response to the Libyan conflict. At the same time, the shortcomings related to tools and strategies in the European Neighborhood Policy (ENP) helped prevent the EU from adopting an influential position. This lack of a joint European position enabling it to play a significant role in the Libyan civil strife facilitated the functions of rival countries, such as Russia in Libya, leaving the EU sidelined.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, European Union, Military Intervention, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Libya

20. Civil Society & Political Transformations (Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy, Fall 2021)

Author:
Ghazi Ghazi
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Eleven years after the 2011 Arab Spring, feelings of transformation and change still reverberate throughout the region. The Spring 2022 edition, Civil Society and Political Transformations, seeks to illuminate how civil society organizations operate in the region and their effects on political transformations.
Topic:
Civil Society, Education, Human Rights, Migration, Politics, Race, History, Reform, Women, Constitution, Arab Spring, Syrian War, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Baath Party, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, South Asia, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Libya, Yemen, Palestine, North Africa, Syria, Jordan, Morocco, and United Arab Emirates