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1. Understanding the Energy Drivers of Turkey’s Foreign Policy

Author:
Francesco Siccardi
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Turkey has an energy dependence problem. For the past two decades, Ankara’s energy needs have been on the rise, and they are projected to continue on an upward trajectory until at least 2035. Yet, the country is not endowed with the proven natural resources to support its energy needs, and so it imports almost all of the energy it consumes. This reliance on energy imports creates economic and security constraints for Ankara. On the economic front, strategic decisions to diversify Turkey’s energy market impact the direction and pace of the country’s economic development. On the security front, dependence on foreign energy exposes Turkey to external shocks and creates vulnerabilities that affect the country’s international posture. To Turkish policymakers, this is hardly breaking news. For many decades, successive governments have been considering ways to diversify the country’s energy portfolio with the objective of ensuring access to affordable, reliable energy supplies. Domestically, this goal has translated into continued investments in locally produced power, such as the development of natural gas fields under the Black Sea and the opening of nuclear and coal-fired power plants across the country. Externally, the aim of diversification has led Ankara to forge a wide range of international partnerships and preserve relations with both Western purchasers of Turkish exports and key energy providers, including Russia and countries in Turkey’s immediate neighborhood. What is more, Ankara pursues its energy diplomacy against the backdrop of a broader geopolitical strategy of bolstering Turkey’s status as a regional power based on its geographic position and connections. At the heart of this strategy is a grand plan to establish Turkey as a major natural gas hub that will put the country at the center of regional energy trade. This policy has ramifications for Ankara’s relations with its close and more distant neighbors. Turkey is surrounded by energy-rich countries, and one of its primary objectives when reaching out to them is to secure the conditions for a steady inflow of energy resources—typically, natural gas and oil. This objective can lead to the development of durable economic partnerships, such as with Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Iran; but it can also spark conflicts of different degrees of intensity, such as with Turkey’s Eastern Mediterranean neighbors and Iraq. Beyond its immediate neighborhood, Ankara’s gas diplomacy is consequential for relations with Russia—with which Turkey has been strengthening its energy relations beyond hydrocarbons—and with Europe. On the demand side of Ankara’s natural gas market equation, European countries are thirsty for non-Russian hydrocarbons in the short and medium term and for green energy in the longer term. Turkey has the potential to provide both, as long as it comes up with strong policies that support these energy transitions. To do so, the Turkish government will need to shift its approaches not only to energy but also to geopolitics. Ankara will have to present itself as a reliable energy partner for Europe and ramp up its investment in clean energy technologies. Delinking Turkey’s economic development from its dependence on hydrocarbons will benefit Ankara financially while bringing it closer to its European allies. Building a long-lasting energy partnership with Europe remains one of Turkey’s greatest challenges.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Climate Change, and Economy
Political Geography:
Russia, Iraq, Europe, Iran, Turkey, Caucasus, Middle East, Libya, North Africa, and Egypt

2. Race Politics and Colonial Legacies: France, Africa and the Middle East

Author:
Hisham Aïdi, Marc Lynch, Zachariah Mampilly, Baba Adou, and Oumar Ba
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
In February 2020 – the eve of the COVID-19 pandemic – the Project on Middle East Political Science held a preliminary meeting at Columbia University in New York to explore the origins of the Africa-Middle East divides that treat North Africa as part of the Middle East and neglect states such as Sudan and Mauritania. Columbia was an appropriate place to begin such a dialogue. Two decades ago, when two of us (Aidi and Mampilly) were graduate students at Columbia, the Institute of African Studies was in serious crisis. The Ugandan political theorist Mahmood Mamdani arrived and launched an initiative to decolonize the study of Africa to counter Hegel’s partition of Africa by transcending the Saharan and red Sea divides, and by underscoring Africa’s links to Arabia, Asia and the New World. To that end, we co-organized a second conference on racial formations in Africa and the Middle East looking at race-making across these two regions comparatively, including the border zones often left out of both African and Middle Eastern Studies: the Sudans, Amazigh-speaking areas in the Sahel, Arabic speaking areas on the Swahili coast and Zanzibar. This workshop represents the third in our series of transregional studies across the Africa-Middle East divide.
Topic:
Politics, Post Colonialism, Race, History, Colonialism, Islamophobia, and Racialization
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, Europe, Sudan, Middle East, France, Libya, Lebanon, Syria, Tunisia, Mauritania, and United States of America

3. The Politics of Migration and Refugee Rentierism in the Middle East

Author:
Marc Lynch, Elizabeth Parker-Magyar, Shaddin Almasri, and Rawan Arar
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
How does the rentier concept apply in the context of the regulation and governance of human mobilities? Given that the hosting of forcibly displaced populations grants political actors the ability to extract revenue in a manner akin to oil rentier states via refugee rent-seeking (Tsourapas 2019), what broader lessons may we draw if we link migration and the rentier state? Similarly, in the case of labor migration in the Gulf, state actors delegate their ‘authority over migration to private actors and turns citizens into migration rentiers’ (Thiollet 2022, 1649). How does rentier state theory explain the politics of migrants and refugees in the Middle East? The relationship between rentierism and human mobilities formed the core of a Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS) workshop organized on 22–23 September 2023 at the University of Glasgow. The workshop sought to unpack the linkages between cross-border mobility and rentier state theory in the Middle East.
Topic:
Education, Health, Humanitarian Aid, Migration, History, Refugees, Borders, Far Right, Mobility, Integration, Donors, Public-Private Partnership, Rentierism, and GCC
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Libya, North Africa, Syria, Jordan, Morocco, and Gulf Nations

4. Containing the Containment: Using Art. 16 ASR to Overcome Accountability Gaps in Delegated Migration Control

Author:
Almut Möller
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Goettingen Journal of International Law
Institution:
The Goettingen Journal of International Law
Abstract:
When the European Court of Human Rights found Italy responsible for push-backs on the high seas in Hirsi Jamaa based on Italy’s effective control over the individuals, it simultaneously solidified the concept of jurisdiction as a prerequisite of human rights obligations and provided States with deeper knowledge on how to avoid responsibility. Since then, instead of pushing the migrants back themselves, destination States increasingly delegate the task of migration control to third States. Under the guise of “capacity building”, they fund, train, and equip third States to exercise containment measures and carry out pull-backs. By way of bilateral agreements, destination States remain in control of the migration flow while avoiding any direct contact with the migrants that would trigger their human rights obligations. One example for this is the Italian-Libyan cooperation under the 2017 Memorandum of Understanding, which was renewed in 2020. Migrants intercepted by Libya are systematically detained in prisons under horrific conditions, which is in clear violation of their human rights. The present article explores ways to allocate responsibility on destination States for their involvement in those human rights violations notwithstanding the lack of jurisdiction. In particular, the article deals with the question whether the general international law of State responsibility is applicable alongside international human rights law. Responsibility for complicity, as lined out in Art. 16 of the Articles on State Responsibility for Internationally Wrongful Acts, is compared to the concept of due diligence obligations in international human rights law, dismissing the claim that the latter poses lex specialis. Subsequently, Art. 16 ASR’s substantive requirements are applied to the case study in order to test the provision’s capability to overcome the accountability gap.
Topic:
Human Rights, International Law, Migration, Accountability, and European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR)
Political Geography:
Europe, Libya, and Italy

5. A Political Economy of Zawiya: Armed Groups and Society in a Western Libyan City

Author:
Wolfram Lacher
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
Since 2015, the coastal city of Zawiya has witnessed endemic violence, but never an all-out war between its main forces. Due to this, the city has become emblematic of Libya’s power struggles. Despite its significance, however, no in-depth studies exist on its armed groups and their evolution. A Political Economy of Zawiya: Armed Groups and Society in a Western Libyan City—a new report from the Small Arms Survey’s Security Assessment In North Africa (SANA) project—seeks explanations to this puzzle in the economic interests of armed groups and their varying relations with local society, and shows how Zawiya’s armed groups gradually came to take on a particularly abusive and predatory character.
Topic:
Security, Political Economy, Armed Forces, and Society
Political Geography:
Libya, North Africa, and Zawiya

6. A Political Economy of Tripoli’s Abu Salim: The Rise of the Stability Support Apparatus as Hegemon

Author:
Adam Hakan
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
Once a hotbed of pro-Qaddafi resistance, Abu Salim is now a stronghold dominated by Abdelghani al-Kikli (widely known as ‘Ghaniwa’) and his Stability Support Apparatus (SSA). Ghaniwa has consolidated power over Abu Salim—the main southern gateway into the Libyan capital of Tripoli—through violence. A Political Economy of Tripoli’s Abu Salim: The Rise of the Stability Support Apparatus as Hegemon—a new Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey’s Security Assessment In North Africa (SANA) project—examines how Ghaniwa’s methods have reshaped Abu Salim’s political economy, and how the hegemonic nature of this military consolidation has allowed the SSA to take on an outsized role in Libya’s broader political and economic spheres.
Topic:
Political Economy, Hegemony, Armed Forces, and Instability
Political Geography:
Libya, North Africa, and Tripoli

7. A Libyan Solution to a Libyan Challenge

Author:
Moin Kikhia
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Perhaps now is the time for the United Nations to step back. It is also time for our leaders, from East and West, to recognize that a joint way forward is possible. The eyes of the world may be fixed on Gaza, with Ukraine and the Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping also jostling for attention. But there is another country which the world should be watching intently. Libya is of key geostrategic importance. Five times larger than Germany, it occupies almost 2,000 kilometers of strategically sensitive Mediterranean coastline. It is also a conduit route for huge numbers of desperate migrants and refugees heading for Europe, with over 700,000 clustering along its shores. Libya also has the largest proven oil reserves in Africa today–a vital concern as the Ukraine conflict continues to threaten the security of Europe’s energy supplies. But it is also a country divided by guns and politics, with two competing governments dividing East and West, each backed and militarily supported by a range of competing foreign powers. In early 2021, the Government of National Unity (GNU) based in the West was put in place through a United Nations-backed process as an interim administration which was supposed to deliver democratic national elections in December of that same year, with the intention of establishing a more permanent Libyan government. Yet three years later the GNU remains in place in Tripoli. It justifies this persistence by arguing that the country is not ready for elections, and it still enjoys a grudging degree of international recognition due to its initial remit.
Topic:
United Nations, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Government of National Unity (GNU)
Political Geography:
Middle East, Libya, and North Africa

8. Verifying Nuclear Disarmament: Lessons Learned in South Africa, Iraq and Libya

Author:
Robert E. Kelley
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:
Inspections in the 1990s and early 2000s in South Africa, Iraq and Libya were designed to discover the details of nuclear weapon programmes and destroy any remnants. As the global norm against nuclear weapons strengthens, the international community may once more require verification of a state’s denuclearization. But success in the three earlier cases does not guarantee success in the next similar task—any future inspection mission must learn from the lessons of the past. This report draws on the unique experience of Robert E. Kelley, a participant in all three past denuclearization efforts. In it, he gives an account of the unique scale and circumstances of each investigation and the different tools and approaches required. By publicly documenting and comparing obstacles and successes in the three cases for the first time, this report gives meaningful and practical insight into the difficult work of disarmament and its verification. It is an essential resource for future inspectors—and all others interested in what real disarmament looks like on the ground.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Disarmament, and Transparency
Political Geography:
Africa, Iraq, Middle East, Libya, South Africa, and North Africa

9. Diplomatic scramble: Greek foreign policy towards Libya

Author:
Constantine Capsaskis
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Libya became a country of immediate interest to Greece following its 2019 Memorandum of Understanding with Turkey. Greece engaged in a flurry of diplomatic activity in the aftermath of the MoU, both within Libya and the wider region, to counter Turkey’s momentum with Tripoli. The complex political situation in Libya and its many facets (proxy conflicts between regional and international players, competition for energy resources, and other factors including religion) compound the difficulties confronting Greek efforts to shield Greece’s interests. European division over Libya has led Greece to seek other bilateral approaches, primarily through cooperation with France and Egypt. Turkey’s attempts to normalize relations with its regional interlocutors (primarily Egypt, Israel and Greece) following the devastating earthquake that struck the country in February 2023 may yet change conditions on the ground in Libya, though it is still too early to tell.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Turkey, Greece, Libya, and North Africa

10. The Rise and Immediate Fall of Israel-Libya Relations

Author:
Ben Fishman
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On August 27, Israeli foreign minister Eli Cohen revealed that he had met with his Libyan counterpart Najla al-Mangoush in Rome, sparking an imbroglio in both of their countries and further abroad. Protests erupted immediately across Libya, including at the Foreign Ministry and the residence of Prime Minister Abdulhamid al-Dabaiba, who likely authorized the meeting. Dabaiba tried to calm the situation by suspending Mangoush and naming an interim foreign minister, while his Government of National Unity (GNU) called the incident a chance encounter alongside Italy’s foreign minister rather than a planned meeting. As protests continued on August 28, Dabaiba appeared at the Palestinian embassy in Tripoli, where he donned a scarf depicting the Dome of the Rock, announced that he had officially dismissed Mangoush, and reiterated Libya’s dedication to the Palestinian cause. Fearing further backlash and potential violence, Mangoush fled to Istanbul. Unlike her predecessors, who were experienced diplomats familiar with Libya’s byzantine Foreign Ministry, Mangoush had no diplomatic background. Dabaiba appointed her in March 2021 only after another female candidate drew criticism, and she faced a unique challenge as a woman among exclusively male foreign ministers across the region. She lacked a power base of her own and wielded narrow influence outside of what Dabaiba and his circle granted her. Yet she was resilient during her first two years in office, surviving calls for her resignation over controversial statements criticizing Turkey’s military presence in Libya, praising Russia’s positive relationship with the GNU, and cooperating with the United States on the extradition of a Pan Am 103 bombing suspect (see below). The State Department named her an International Woman of Courage in 2022, citing her work with civil society organizations and her expertise in conflict resolution (gained in part from PhD work at George Mason University).
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Normalization
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Libya, and North Africa

11. Full, Equal, Meaningful, and Safe: Creating Enabling Environments for Women’s Participation in Libya

Author:
Catherine Turner and Aisling Swaine
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
Historically, the women, peace, and security (WPS) agenda’s four pillars—prevention, protection, participation, and relief and recovery—have largely developed along separate trajectories. This has started to change with the UN Security Council’s recent progress in recognizing the link between women’s participation in peace and security and their protection, as well as the need to create “enabling environments” for women’s participation. Nonetheless, there is often a gap between international frameworks on participation and protection and the realities experienced by women, especially in conflict-affected contexts. To address that gap, this paper analyzes the experiences of women in Libya and the obstacles they face when participating in peace and security and political processes. Using an ecological framework, it details the risks that women who participate encounter at six levels: individual, interpersonal, community, national institutional, societal, and global institutional. Through this analysis, the report deepens the evidence for and understanding of the critical relationship between protection and participation, broadens analysis of and provides pointers for the mainstreaming of WPS in UN mission mandates, and provides a new framework to advance the creation of safe and enabling environments for women’s participation. In order to advance women’s full, equal, meaningful, and safe participation, the report offers the following recommendations. For the Security Council and member states: Continue to build on progress on mainstreaming WPS in mission mandates; Prioritize the implementation of Resolution 2493’s provision on creating “enabling environments” for women’s participation; and Ensure gender advisers with context-specific expertise are mandated and properly resourced in all UN missions. For UN missions, agencies, and partners: Conduct context-specific participation and protection analyses; Strengthen coordination between the UN missions, UN agencies, and other international organizations working on related issues to address the full range of protection-related barriers to women’s participation; and Ensure a gender-sensitive approach to the use of digital tools for participation to reflect the increased risks to women in online environments.
Topic:
Security, Women, Peace, Participation, Equality, and WPS
Political Geography:
Libya and North Africa

12. Türkiye in the MENA Region: A Foreign Policy Reset

Author:
Valeria Talbot
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
In recent years, Türkiye's foreign policy has been driven by efforts to reset relations with regional competitors in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Against a backdrop of disruption caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as well as the redefinition of the US role in the region, Ankara’s renewed diplomatic activism has been guided by the willingness to break from regional isolation, as well as the need to relieve Türkiye’s deteriorating economy. How did Türkiye ditch its ideological approach in the wake of the 2011 Arab uprisings to adopt a more pragmatic stance? And how is the process of rapprochement with other key actors in the MENA region playing out – namely Gulf monarchies, Israel and Egypt?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Regional Power
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and United Arab Emirates

13. Giorgia Meloni’s Foreign Policy and the Mattei Plan for Africa: Balancing Development and Migration Concerns

Author:
Karim Mezran and Alissa Pavia
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Despite Italy’s economic significance as the Eurozone’s third-largest economy and founding member of the G7 and NATO, the country has struggled to translate its economic power into political influence. Yet, with Giorgia Meloni’s ascent to power, Italy’s approach to foreign policy appears to be evolving. In fact, since the very beginning of her term, Meloni displayed a rather bold approach towards reshaping Italy’s international status. As the President of the Council of Ministers – analogous to the post of Prime Minister in other countries – Meloni has adopted a distinct posture in addressing issues related to the Southern Mediterranean. Since taking office in October 2022, Meloni has made numerous visits to North Africa, engaging in a diplomatic offensive aimed at reinvigorating Italian policies. In January this year, following in the footsteps of former Prime Minister Mario Draghi, Meloni travelled to Algeria on her first bilateral visit abroad. Algeria is an instrumental country for Italy due to its vast hydrocarbon reserves and geographical proximity.[1] In 2022, Draghi paved the way for Algeria to become Italy’s top energy supplier, replacing Russia and thus allowing for a swift decoupling from Moscow as the Ukraine war rages on and energy prices continue to soar. Meloni’s posture in Algeria seeks to evidence her willingness to move beyond a mere set of energy memorandums and broaden Italy’s foreign policy to include strategic diplomacy with long-term goals. She described Algeria as Italy’s “most stable, strategic and long-standing” partner in North Africa,[2] and reassured President Tebboune that Italy stands by Algeria. The country has recently felt cornered following Morocco’s joining of the Abraham Accords, a feeling few other countries aside from Italy had the courage to assuage and which had pushed Algeria further towards Russia and China as a result. Meloni’s activism in North Africa did not end there. The prime minister and her cabinet promoted high-level missions and diplomatic efforts with Libyan government officials, allowing Italy to reap diplomatic wins in the energy field. In January, a few weeks after visiting Algeria, Meloni flew to Tripoli for a meeting with Libya’s UN-backed Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh. The visit led to the signing of an 8 billion US dollars gas deal between Italian energy company Eni and Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC).[3]
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Migration, and Giorgia Meloni
Political Geography:
Africa, Libya, Algeria, and Italy

14. Revenge, Revisionism, or Reconciliation? Libya after the Arab Spring

Author:
Marieke Wierda and Suliman Ibrahim
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
In September 2023, heavy rains in Libya caused two dams to break. Muddy floodwaters ripped through the town of Derna, dividing it in half and destroy- ing everything in their way, causing at least 10,000 deaths.1 This single natural disaster killed more people than the violence that has plagued Libya since its Revolution, but in many ways, it was man-made. The failure of the dams and the decaying infrastructure result from the political rifts that have dominated Libya for a decade. The disaster has once again prompted debate in Libyan so- ciety on how to achieve justice for the lives lost, in this case due to negligence and corruption. Since 2011, Libyans have been waiting for justice for lives lost, be it during the rule of Muammar Gaddafi or during the turbulent period that followed. The absence of accountability hinders the formation of a new social contract through reconciliation.
Topic:
Arab Spring, Transitional Justice, Reconciliation, and Muammar Gaddafi
Political Geography:
Libya and North Africa

15. Gas for Survival: Tackling reasons behind the Italian PM's efforts to promote relations with Libya

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
Italian PM Giorgia Meloni visited Libya on January 28, where she met with Abdul Hamid al-Dbeibeh, PM of the outgoing government of national unity. The two leaders signed a new gas deal which has proved controversial.
Topic:
Migration, Gas, Energy, and Government of National Unity (GNU)
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Libya, and Italy

16. The Role of EU in the Libyan Conflict

Author:
Mehmet Bardakci
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
Europe was marginalized in the Libyan conflict, not the least because the conflict exposed foreign policy flaws concerning a lack of coherence and cohesion. Working at cross purposes, European states were more interested in fulfilling their parochial interests than making an effort to give a typical response to the Libyan conflict. At the same time, the shortcomings related to tools and strategies in the European Neighborhood Policy (ENP) helped prevent the EU from adopting an influential position. This lack of a joint European position enabling it to play a significant role in the Libyan civil strife facilitated the functions of rival countries, such as Russia in Libya, leaving the EU sidelined.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, European Union, Military Intervention, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Libya

17. Libyan Youth in Limbo: Coming of Age in Conflict

Author:
Asma Khalifa
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
This study seeks to understand how the transition to adulthood for Libyan youth has been impacted by the context of the past 10 years in conflict. Through in-depth qualitative research carried out with 75 Libyan youth in 2020-2021, the study explores decision-making processes and the types of opportunities and constraints that youth face in terms of education and livelihood, the impact of war on their political beliefs and participation, their understandings of peace and security, and the ways in which war has changed gender norms and relations. The study finds that 2014 represents the pivotal year in terms of their personal trajectories, their critical understandings of dynamics of war and peace, and their own personal sense of wellbeing and hope for the future. With regards to livelihood and employment paths, youth trajectories reveal a complicated dynamic, where opportunities come at a price or with consequences that are counterproductive. On one hand, the conflict in Libya has dismantled old repressive structures, and in the absence of that, there are chances of more independent and ingenious efforts to improve livelihoods. For nearly all participants, for example, the preferred choice of study actually expanded as a result of the opening of society and the political sphere in 2011. Likewise, dynamics of necessity since 2011 have seen the emergence of a new culture for entrepreneurship that is innovative and resilient. Yet at the same time, the destruction of war means that education pathways have been cut short and that the infrastructure needed to make entrepreneurship sustainable for young people, such as a strong financial system and operating legal framework, does not exist. In regards to political beliefs and participation, many youth attest that the 2011 uprising served as a political awakening of sorts, creating new interest in politics and political processes. However, the descent into war has had an almost universally negative impact on their view towards politics and politicians. Deep distrust in politics and a widespread belief in the systemic depths of corruption translates to pervasive apathy for formal political processes and participation. Yet at the same time, Libyan youth who have come into adulthood in a context of conflict have nuanced views regarding how peace can be constructed and the responsibilities required for this peacebuilding process at different levels. This includes the necessity of rehabilitation and the promotion of tolerance, respect for differences, and values of coexistence – all of which must be carried out both by the State, but also critically by communities themselves. For peace to truly exist, though, youth insist on the necessity for justice as a prerequisite. With regards to social relations and gender norms, the conflict has had a dualistic impact on both challenging and reinforcing traditional tropes of masculinity and femininity. Because of extreme loss of economic wellbeing, women youth have found themselves in new jobs, with new responsibilities, and in new public spaces that sometimes break away from traditional gender norms. Yet at the same time, the conflict has also reinforced norms regarding masculinity and the role of men in the family and society. As a result, while youth participating in this study do acknowledge profound shifts in the gender roles and gender relations, the extent to which this is viewed as something positive to be maintained in the post-conflict period is much less certain. Overall, the study finds that youth, facing important psychological trauma and in a perpetual state of uncertainty and instability, have little hope for the future and little ability to plan for their lives. The most reliable strategy they have adopted is that of flexibility and adaptability, with most viewing life outside of Libya as the only real option for the future. In other words, young people are seeking to build their lives elsewhere. Their lack of trust in politics and in the ability that they have to effect change means that core issues related to the resolving conflict and building peace, such as economic and political reform, will continue to be a problem without the younger generation taking active part in contributing to rebuilding of the country. This new generation no longer has the mentality of relying only on the State, but believes instead on pursuing good educational and work opportunities that are more personally fulfilling. They are also acutely aware of the extremely difficult environment in which they try to study or work in, as well as the lack of a broader context that can support them. For youth in Libya today, the pervasive feeling is that they are not safe and cannot set deep roots for fear everything will collapse.
Topic:
Security, Education, Youth, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa and Libya

18. Towards a Renewed Local Social and Political Covenant in Libya, Syria and Yemen

Author:
Ahmed Morsy
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:
This SIPRI Insights Paper examines the domestic and external factors at play in Libya, Syria and Yemen and their impact on negotiating post-war peaceful settlements and shaping prospective social contracts. The paper’s argument is two-fold. Firstly, policymaking must move beyond a static approach to understanding these conflicts. Despite apparent stalemates, the three countries should be approached as ever-evolving simmering conflicts. Secondly, policymakers have to move below the national level in order to achieve various forms of localized social peace. Given the nature of these conflicts and the varied sub-national segmentation, the analysis concludes that community-level social and political covenants may offer a first building block towards nationwide social contracts and sustainable conflict resolution. The role of external actors, particularly the European Union (EU), is critical in paving the way for these local-level dialogues and negotiations in Libya, Syria and Yemen. In short, external powers, including the EU, should adopt policies that push for long-term resolution to achieve post-conflict stabilization rather than the opportunistic taking of sides.
Topic:
Politics, Arab Spring, Social Contract, and Society
Political Geography:
Middle East, Libya, Yemen, North Africa, and Syria

19. Libya Country Report 2021-2022

Author:
Arab Barometer
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
After seeing their hopes for elections in late 2021 crushed, Libyans are growing frustrated at the incompetence of the political class and its failure to resolve the country’s ongoing crises. Libyans perceive foreign actors as contributors to, if not inciters of, the conflict and want to see Libyan-led efforts to reconcile the country’s divisions. Trust in most political institutions is diminishing and belief in the prevalence of corruption is high. Libyans are generally dissatisfied with the government’s performance and public services, though evaluations have improved slightly compared to the ratings in 2019. The economic situation in Libya has deteriorated with inflation and liquidity issues hindering people’s abilities to meet their basic needs. At the same time, there has been a significant decline in optimism regarding the country’s economic future while perceptions of inequality are increasing. All these issues have resulted in popular discontent, which ultimately led to widespread protests in July 2022. The protestors’ demands ranged from a better electricity supply to dissolution of all political bodies and the holding of elections. Those in power, however, attempted to utilize the protests for their own political infighting without taking any concrete steps tomeet popular demands. Thesemaneuvers reinforce the growing frustration Libyans hold toward democracy. There is now a growing belief that democratic regimes are weak economically, inefficient, and incapable of stabilizing the country. Nevertheless, only a minority of Libyans have considered leaving the country. Among those who have, the primary driver is economic reasons.
Topic:
International Relations, Corruption, Environment, Gender Issues, Politics, Governance, Democracy, Economy, Institutions, COVID-19, and Political Participation
Political Geography:
Libya and North Africa

20. Building security: How Europeans can help reform Libya

Author:
Roberta Maggi
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Since 2011, divided governance structures in Libya have weakened the state’s monopoly on the use of force, as have the proliferation of armed groups and their gradual infiltration of security institutions across the country. One of the persistent errors of disarmament, demobilisation, and reintegration in Libya is the assumption that combatants can be bought off. Another is the assumption that security sector reform (SSR) depends on the right personalities rather than systems and processes. Europeans’ short-term stabilisation imperatives – notoriously, those related to migration and counter-terrorism – have repeatedly led to reactive policymaking that only deepens instability. For Europeans to play a meaningful SSR role, they will need a shared strategy and operational principles. But they will also need to recognise that they will initially have limited room for manoeuvre and that this will be a medium- to long-term effort. In the short term, Europeans should support the establishment of a Libyan-owned SSR body that can lead nationwide efforts in conjunction with UN diplomacy. This should be accompanied by a greater focus on strengthening bottom-up security initiatives that can help stabilise the country and restore European influence.
Topic:
Security, Reform, Political stability, and Foreign Assistance
Political Geography:
Libya and North Africa