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1. Iran may be a turning point for US regime change objectives in Latin America

Author:
Tiziano Breda and Sandra Pellegrini
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
In Venezuela, Operation Absolute Resolve caused no American fatalities, and Nicolás Maduro was captured swiftly and replaced with Delcy Rodríguez, who embarked on normalization of relations with the United States and reforms that benefit US interests. In contrast, Operation Epic Fury in Iran has already seen hundreds of American service members injured and seven killed; Iranian retaliation has inflicted serious political costs on the US and allies; and the replacement for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, killed in US-Israeli operations, is his son, a fellow hard-liner — signaling Iranian defiance rather than concessions. The risk of increasing entanglement in Iran will likely weaken US capacity and dampen domestic appetite for further intervention, at least ahead of the November mid-term elections. Sustained US military engagement in the Middle East may further divert some of its resources deployed in the Caribbean, already deprived of the USS Gerald Ford aircraft carrier.1 This, in turn, may limit the credibility of any threat of further US operations in Venezuela or Cuba, hindering Trump’s ability to extract concessions from Caracas and Havana, particularly those related to democratization. Cuba remains a US priority: Trump has reiterated warnings of imminent changes in the island.2 However, recent US-Cuba engagement suggests that a negotiated political settlement, rather than a direct and costly military operation as in Venezuela, has gained traction. The US has applied pressure to bring the Cuban regime to the negotiating table. A blockade on oil exports has already triggered several power outages that have affected all sectors of the economy and access to basic necessities, and these are likely to deepen as oil import prices hike. The shortages risk heightening social discontent and increase domestic pressure on the government. Previous spikes in demonstrations in Cuba have been spurred by fuel and energy shortages, and recent protests suggest this dynamic remains potent.3
Topic:
Regime Change, Military Intervention, Armed Conflict, Energy, and Operation Epic Fury
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Cuba, Latin America, Venezuela, North America, and United States of America

2. “Luciérnagas en El Mozote” And The Battle Over Historical Memory in El Salvador

Author:
Kevin Ramírez
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
A state-backed film detailing the 1981 massacre at El Mozote raises thorny questions about the country’s civil war as the victims continue fighting for justice.
Topic:
Civil War, Transitional Justice, Memory, and Accountability
Political Geography:
Latin America and El Salvador

3. An LGBTQ+ Win in the Dominican Republic Comes Under Fire

Author:
Simón Rodríguez
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Despite the recent decriminalization of same-sex relationships in the armed forces and police, the ruling is being attacked by the right-wing government and its allies.
Topic:
Armed Forces, LGBT+, Police, Decriminalization, and Right-Wing Politics
Political Geography:
Latin America and Dominican Republic

4. Bolivians Enter a New Era of Popular Struggles

Author:
Gabriel Rodríguez García
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
After a series of protests over cuts to fuel subsidies brought the country to a halt, Bolivia’s powerful social movements embark on a new chapter and face new forms of repression.
Topic:
Social Movement, Repression, Fossil Fuels, and Subsidies
Political Geography:
Latin America and Bolivia

5. Powering data centers in emerging markets

Author:
Phillip Cornell
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The rise of artificial intelligence and global demand for cloud computing is rapidly redrawing the geography of digital infrastructure. The International Energy Agency projects that global data center electricity consumption will more than double by 2030 to 945 terawatt hours, with AI-optimized servers driving the bulk of that growth. As mature digital hubs in the United States, Europe, and East Asia run up against the limits of grid capacity, permitting cycles, and land availability, investment is shifting toward emerging markets. Large parts of Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Latin America, Africa, and the Black Sea region feature available land, high renewables potential, stranded energy, and accelerating digital demand. This report examines the conditions under which emerging economies can convert that interest into durable, smart, digital infrastructure. It argues that emerging markets are not merely overflow capacity for saturated hubs but increasingly demand centers in their own right; India for example hosts 20 percent of the world’s data yet accounts for less than 6 percent of global capacity. The same markets, however, present structural risks: limited grid redundancy, volatile electricity pricing, uneven regulation, equipment bottlenecks, and shallow workforce pipelines. Drawing on case studies from Malaysia’s Johor corridor, South Africa, Brazil, Turkey, and India, the report shows how hybrid energy strategies, coordinated permitting, and workforce investment can convert latent advantages into bankable infrastructure.
Topic:
Emerging Markets, Infrastructure, Artificial Intelligence, Energy, and Data Centers
Political Geography:
Africa, South Asia, Turkey, Latin America, and Indo-Pacific

6. Local Care and Feminist Foreign Policy: Lessons Learned from Mexico City’s UTOPÍAS

Author:
Evyn Papworth
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
As feminist foreign policies face growing political backlash around the world, questions remain about how states can ensure these policies are grounded in the lived realities of the communities they seek to serve. One way to bridge the gap between international commitments and domestic implementation is through the care economy. This policy paper examines Mexico City’s UTOPÍAS—publicly funded community centers that provide care services, educational opportunities, cultural programming, and support for economic autonomy. Drawing on field research and interviews with policymakers, civil society representatives, and community members, the paper explores how these centers embody feminist principles through an intersectional approach to care, gender equality, and social inclusion. The paper argues that initiatives like the UTOPÍAS demonstrate how local governments can advance transformative care policies while contributing to broader feminist foreign policy goals. It highlights the potential of municipal feminist diplomacy and city-to-city exchanges as avenues for sharing innovative approaches to care, human security, and gender equality across borders.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economy, Feminism, and Autonomy
Political Geography:
Latin America, Mexico, and Mexico City

7. From Narco Cartels to Criminal Networks: The Structural Transformation of Organized Crime in Latin America and the Caribbean

Author:
Igarapé Institute
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Igarapé Institute
Abstract:
atin America and the Caribbean’s major criminal groups can no longer be understood simply as regional drug trafficking organizations moving cocaine through global markets. That image belongs to an earlier phase. Today, several of these organizations exercise territorial authority, generate revenue from both licit and illicit economies, and shape political life from the ground up. Across the region, they are expanding into strategic sectors, exploiting regulatory weaknesses, and transforming new financial technologies into instruments of concealment and control. The criminal landscape of Latin America and the Caribbean has entered a more complex and dangerous phase. Cocaine production has reached record levels, and Mexican, Brazilian, Colombian, and Ecuadorian criminal organizations have become deeply embedded in global logistics networks, including major European ports such as Antwerp, Hamburg, Le Havre, Rotterdam, and Valencia. Their resilience no longer depends on violence alone. It rests on the protective systems they build around themselves, the revenue streams they control, and the local authority they accumulate where the state is predatory, selective, or absent. This is as much a governance problem as it is a security problem. Criminal groups are not simply attacking the state from the outside. In many places, they operate through the everyday machinery of public authority, turning institutional weaknesses into strategic advantages and public office into a source of protection. This constitutes a core element of criminal governance, enabling criminal organizations to absorb law-enforcement pressure, recover from territorial losses, and survive the removal or replacement of their leaders. In this article, we identify six major transformations. First, the Covid-19 pandemic disrupted criminal supply chains in the short term but deepened poverty, weakened state capacity, and expanded informal economies in ways that accelerated criminal expansion once restrictions were lifted. Second, criminal groups diversified their revenue streams across an increasingly wide range of sectors and supply chains. Third, criminal logistics became globalized. Fourth, state responses across the region increasingly favored militarized emergency models capable of reducing visible violence in the short term while leaving criminal finance, corruption, and illicit governance structures largely intact. Fifth, organized crime’s corrosive effect on democratic institutions intensified through the capture of electoral, judicial, municipal, and security institutions. Sixth, a tougher U.S. security posture reshaped the hemisphere through terrorist designations, lethal maritime strikes, coercive diplomacy, deeper operational partnerships, and pressure on governments viewed as insufficiently aligned with Washington’s counter-narcotics and migration-control priorities.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Governance, Organized Crime, Cartels, Illicit Financial Flows, Drug Trafficking, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Latin America and Caribbean

8. Intergenerational Mobility and Populist Attitudes in Latin America

Author:
Bautista Santamarina, Matias Ciaschi, and Mariana Marchionni
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
This paper examines the relationship between intergenerational educational mobility and populist attitudes in Latin America, a region characterized by low levels of intergenerational mobility and a long-standing presence of populist leadership. In contexts where social origin strongly predicts individual outcomes, perceptions of unfairness may create fertile ground for populist narratives. Using harmonized microdata from 18 waves of the Latinobarómetro survey covering individuals born between 1940 and 2000, we document a robust negative association between intergenerational mobility and populist attitudes across multiple indicators, including anti-democratic attitudes, support for military governments, anti-immigrant sentiments, and institutional distrust. These results hold when using a relative mobility measure that captures pure positional change net of structural trends, and at the cohort level when exploiting standard mobility measures from the literature. Cohort-level estimates further reveal that the effect of persistence is amplified in high-inequality contexts, suggesting that immobility and contemporaneous inequality act as complements in shaping political discontent. Decomposing inequality into opportunity and effort components, we find evidence suggesting that populist attitudes are mostly driven by inequalities of opportunity. These findings suggest that the persistent emergence of populist leadership in Latin America is linked to the region’s stubbornly low intergenerational mobility and unequal access to opportunities.
Topic:
Democracy, Populism, Social Mobility, and Intergenerational
Political Geography:
Latin America

9. Data Challenges and Innovations in Measuring Domestic Violence in Latin America and the Caribbean: Traditional Sources and Online Search Patterns

Author:
Inés Berniell, Gabriel Facchini, and Santiago M. Perez-Vincent
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
This study examines the challenges of analyzing domestic violence (DV) in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) and seeks to improve measurement through two main contributions. First, we collect and describe traditional DV data sources (household surveys and administrative records) across 19 countries. The analysis reveals substantial gaps in data availability, with infrequent and outdated survey efforts in most countries. Nevertheless, surveys confirm high DV prevalence, with at least one in five women reporting victimization in all countries examined, and highlight pervasive underreporting that limits the reliability of administrative crime data. Second, we examine the properties of a novel, high-frequency indicator based on online search behavior: the Google Domestic Violence Index. Using administrative data from eight LAC countries, we find that the index is strongly correlated with calls to DV helplines but shows weaker association with police reports or emergency calls. The evidence suggests that the index captures early-stage, information-seeking behavior and may provide a real-time signal of latent victimization not reflected in official statistics. Our findings underscore the potential of digital data to complement traditional sources and to support more timely, responsive approaches to tracking DV.
Topic:
Internet, Data, Domestic Violence, and Google
Political Geography:
Latin America and Caribbean

10. Understanding Latin America’s Fertility Decline: Age, Education, and Cohort Dynamics

Author:
Milagros Onofri, Inés Berniell, Raquel Fernandez, and Azul Menduiña
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
This paper examines the sharp decline in fertility across Latin America using both period and cohort measures. Combining Vital Statistics, Census microdata, and UN population data, we decompose changes in fertility by age, education, and joint age–education groups. We show that the decline in period fertility between 2000 and 2022 is driven primarily by reductions in within-group birth rates rather than by changes in population composition, with the largest contributions coming from younger and less-educated women. Comparing the cohort born in the mid 1950s and the one born in the mid 1970s, we find that the decline in completed fertility reflects not only delayed childbearing but also substantial reductions in the average number of children per woman. This is driven primarily by lower fertility among mothers rather than by rising childlessness. Our findings provide new evidence on the nature of Latin America’s transition to below-replacement fertility and highlight several open questions for future research.
Topic:
Demographics, Education, Fertility, and Age
Political Geography:
Latin America

11. Diversifying Partnerships: What Are the Motives Behind the South Korean President’s Tour of Latin America?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
08-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
South Korean President Lee Jae-myung visited three Latin American countries — Brazil, Chile, and Argentina — his first such visit since assuming office in June 2025. The trip formed part of a broader 11-day foreign tour, held from July 24 to August 3, 2026, that also took him to San Francisco and Frankfurt. During his stops in Latin America, Lee held summit talks with his counterparts from the three countries, focused on expanding trade and investment, opening new markets, resuming negotiations on a free trade agreement between Korea and the “Mercosur” bloc, updating the free trade agreement with Chile, and expanding the horizons of Korean diplomacy toward the Global South.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Global South, and Trade
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, Brazil, Argentina, Latin America, and Chile

12. Another Transatlanticism Is Possible: Europe’s Moment in Latin America amid Trump’s Return

Author:
Raffaele Piras
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Donald Trump’s return to the White House has reignited his hallmark “America First” agenda, with significant consequences for Latin America. During his inaugural address, Trump emphasised the need to regain US control of the Panama Canal, framing it as a cornerstone of national security amidst heightened competition with China.[1] This rhetoric marks the continuation of a policy approach that relies on coercion and transactional diplomacy to achieve US objectives. While Trump’s focus on Latin America will undoubtedly reshape the region’s geopolitical dynamics, it also presents a strategic opportunity for the European Union to strengthen its role as a stabilising force and reliable partner.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, European Union, Institutions, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:
Europe, Latin America, North America, and United States of America

13. The U.S. Pursues Increasingly Aggressive Policy towards Latin America

Author:
Bartłomiej Znojek
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Donald Trump’s administration is seeking to rebuild U.S. influence in Latin America. It is trying to convince the countries of the region that cooperation with the United States will bring development and increased security to the Americas. For the time being, however, this approach mainly serves U.S. security interests, in particular combating irregular migration, organised crime and drug trafficking, and reducing China’s influence. The current administration’s threats, inconsistent positions, and expansionist drive will deepen the distrust of the U.S. and antagonise important Latin American partners.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Migration, Donald Trump, Strategic Interests, and Drug Trafficking
Political Geography:
Latin America and United States of America

14. Korea’s Trade Policy Priorities with Latin America: Future Directions

Author:
Sungwoo Hong
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
Despite Latin America’s potential as a trading partner, Korea’s exports to Latin America have continuously decreased over the past 10 years, while imports from Latin America have been increasing. The fact that Korea’s exports to these countries have decreased since the conclusion of FTAs with Chile, Peru, and Colombia suggests that it is time to identify the cause of Korea’s decline in exports to Latin America and seek opportunities to expand exports. One reason for the decline in Korea’s exports to Latin America is the decline in Korean companies' investment in Latin America. The correlation coefficient between Korea’s investment in Latin America and exports is quite high, indicating that the decline in investment since the mid-2010s has had a direct impact on the decline in exports to Latin America. As a short-term trade policy goal to consider, I propose establishing and activating a channel for cooperation between Korea and Latin America. It is possible to establish new dialogue channels and revive existing ones, centered on countries where consultative bodies such as the Resources Cooperation Committee, Senior Policy Council, and Joint Economic Committee have already been established, making this a more cost-effective approach compared to other initiatives As a task to be pursued from a long-term perspective, I propose preparing for the possibility of economic integration between the United States and Central America. Assuming that the conflict between the United States and China will continue in the future, expanding economic integration between the United States and Central America can be positive for Korea in that it can alleviate some of the uncertainty Mexico currently has as a bridgehead targeting the US export market. However, expanding economic integration between the United States and Central America is not only difficult for Korea to directly intervene in, but also requires economic and diplomatic efforts in parallel, meaning it may be difficult to achieve in the short or medium term, and thus needs to be pursued as a long-term task. Central American countries, excluding Nicaragua, may be countries that currently have a demand for increasing the level of economic integration with the United States, and the United States may also consider expanding economic integration with them.
Topic:
Investment, Exports, Trade Policy, and Economic Integration
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, and Latin America

15. Toward a More Effective DoD Contribution to Strategic Competition in the Western Hemisphere

Author:
R. Evan Ellis
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
Innovative new thinking on the security dimension of the challenges posed by the PRC’s engagement in Latin America and the DoD’s role in the whole-of-government US response is needed. This monograph highlights risks from PRC influence networks, digital architectures, and dual-use commercial facilities in the region, particularly at ports and in the space sector; shows how PRC economic engagement and other support sustains illiberal regimes, indirectly contributing to the risks these regimes pose by hosting criminal and terrorist groups and other US adversaries, such as Russia and Iran; and illustrates how commercial, people-to-people, and security engagements create options for the PRC to exploit against the United States in times of war. It advocates for new effects-based strategic concepts for how the DoD can strengthen cooperation with the region and limit PRC access through enhanced security cooperation and leveraging partners’ valuation of their relationships with the United States to influence their choices regarding cooperation with the PRC and gain better situational awareness for responding to China. Finally, it discusses how the United States should work with regional partners to plan for likely PRC actions in the region in times of war, leveraging the presence, relationships, and knowledge created through engagement.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Strategic Competition, and Security Cooperation
Political Geography:
China, Latin America, and Caribbean

16. The Modern Surveillance State: Mexico and the CIA during the Cold War

Author:
Claire Dorfman
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Newly declassified CIA documents reveal the links between Mexico’s contemporary surveillance state and a uniquely close Cold War collaboration with U.S. intelligence agencies.
Topic:
Cold War, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)
Political Geography:
Latin America and Mexico

17. Community Forestry Addresses Environmental Destruction in Mexico

Author:
Linda Farthing
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Community-based governance structures put decision-making about Ixlán de Juarez’s forests into local hands, creating economic opportunity and reversing centuries of deforestation in the town.
Topic:
Environment, Governance, Deforestation, Forestry, and Community Initiatives
Political Geography:
Latin America and Mexico

18. Neofascist March Calls for the Expulsion of Haitians in Punta Cana

Author:
Simón Rodríguez
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
A recent violent and destructive march calling for the expulsion of Haitians in Punta Cana demonstrates the vehement anti-Haitianism and rising fascism prevalent in the Dominican Republic.
Topic:
Economics, Far Right, Migrant Workers, and Neofascism
Political Geography:
Latin America, Caribbean, Haiti, and Dominican Republic

19. The Life of a Trans Mexican Revolutionary, in Drag

Author:
Olivia Ferrari
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Drag performers mine the story of the revolutionary hero and trans icon Amelio Robles to better understand the past and shape the future.
Topic:
History, Transgender, Amelio Robles, Drag, and Mexican Revolution
Political Geography:
Latin America and Mexico

20. Trump and the Threat of Domestic Militarization

Author:
Dawn Paley and Ojalá
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Mexico's experience with the militarization of prohibition and migration is defined by violence and displacement.
Topic:
Migration, Displacement, Violence, Donald Trump, and Militarization
Political Geography:
Latin America and Mexico

21. Forensic Crisis Reveals Institutional Responsibility in Mexico City’s Disappearance Crisis

Author:
Eliana Gilet, Madeleine Wattenbarger, and Gleider I. Hernández
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
In Mexico City, families of the disappeared mobilize for justice for their loved ones and the accountability of forensic authorities.
Topic:
Crime, Accountability, Police, Disappearance, Activism, and Forensics
Political Geography:
Latin America, Mexico, and Mexico City

22. Buscadoras in Mexico Under Threat After Grisly Discovery

Author:
Joshua Collins and Daniela Diaz Rangel
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
News of a mass grave found by civilian search collectives has reopened an old debate about a lack of political will on the part of authorities to investigate violent crime.
Topic:
Crime, Accountability, Police, and Mass Grave
Political Geography:
Latin America and Mexico

23. Cuerpos Furiosos: Travesti-Trans Politics for Counterrevolutionary Times

Author:
Cole Rizki
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
The Spring 2025 issue of the NACLA Report explores travesti-trans politics across the Americas, an antifascist and transversal politics with the power to reshape our world.
Topic:
Politics, Transgender, Antifascism, and Travesti
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and Central America

24. Afro-Feminist Poetics and Trans Life in Cuba: A Conversation with Max Fonseca

Author:
Kerry M. White and Max Fonseca
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
The poet and activist talks about the precarity that trans, queer, and Afrodescendent people in Cuba face today, and the life sustaining worlds built by Black trans women in Cuba and its diaspora.
Topic:
Politics, Feminism, Interview, Transgender, Activism, and Afro-Feminism
Political Geography:
Cuba, Latin America, and Caribbean

25. “Carnival is Always Political”: Keeping Protest Alive in Trinidad

Author:
Khalea Robertson
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Designer Robert Young discusses the political activism woven into the costumes of his band, Vulgar Fraction, which participates annually in Trinidad and Tobago’s Carnival celebrations.
Topic:
Politics, Protests, Interview, and Carnival
Political Geography:
Latin America, Caribbean, and Trinidad and Tobago

26. Brazil’s Student Movement Resists the Far Right, at Home and Abroad

Author:
Alice Taylor
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
In the days after the Trump inauguration, Brazilian students gathered at the largest student congress in Latin America to debate the future of left resistance.
Topic:
Donald Trump, Leftist Politics, Students, and Activism
Political Geography:
Brazil, South America, and Latin America

27. Trump’s Latin America Policy: Inconsistencies and Vacillations

Author:
Steve Ellner
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
The Trump administration’s volatility on foreign policy reveals internal divisions within Trumpism. But when threats and populism lose their momentum, the anti-communist hawks may get their way.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Domestic Politics, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
Latin America

28. The U.S. War on Migrants Gets Help from El Salvador

Author:
Timothy O'Farrell
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
El Salvador's offer to house deportees and U.S. citizens in its infamous prisons – for profit – signals a new and troubling escalation in the criminalization of migration.
Topic:
Migration, Prisons/Penal Systems, Donald Trump, Deportation, and Criminalization
Political Geography:
Latin America, El Salvador, and United States of America

29. Forbidden African Legacies in the Dominican Republic

Author:
Patricia Rodríguez
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Despite the ongoing criminalization and racist persecution of African tradition, from the criminalization of Vodou to restrictions against Gagá, Afro-Dominican culture persists.
Topic:
Culture, Racism, Tradition, Criminalization, and Vodou
Political Geography:
Africa, Latin America, and Dominican Republic

30. Why Latin America and the Caribbean matter for OECD countries

Author:
Jason Marczak and Martin Cassinelli
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
As global dynamics evolve, Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are becoming increasingly important partners for the member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The region offers valuable assets, policy alignment in key areas, and opportunities for enhanced collaboration on shared challenges. This report outlines how deeper OECD–LAC engagement can contribute to mutual prosperity, resilience, and global stability.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Politics, Economy, and OECD
Political Geography:
Latin America and Caribbean

31. The next decade of strategic competition: How the Pentagon can use special operations forces to better compete

Author:
Clementine G. Starling-Daniels and Theresa Luetkefend
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Strategic competition is likely to intensify over the next decade, increasing the demands on the United States to deter and defend against wide-ranging and simultaneous security challenges across multiple domains and regions worldwide. In that time frame, the Department of Defense (DOD) and the Joint Force should more effectively leverage the competencies of US Special Operations Forces (USSOF) to compete with US strategic adversaries. Three realities facing the DOD over the next decade lend themselves toward leveraging USSOF more in strategic competition. First, the growing need to counter globally active and increasingly cooperative aggressors, while the broader Joint Force remains focused on the Indo-Pacific and Europe, underscores the value of leveraging USSOF to manage competition in other regions. Second, the desire to avoid war and manage competition below the threshold of conflict aligns with USSOF’s expertise in the irregular aspects of competition. Third, unless defense spending and recruitment dramatically increase over the next decade, the Joint Force will likely have to manage more security challenges without a commensurate increase in force size and capabilities, which underscores the need for the DOD to maximize every tool at its disposal, including the use of USSOF to help manage strategic competition. The US government must harness all instruments of national power, alongside its network of allies and partners, to uphold international security, deter attacks, and counter efforts to undermine US security interests. Achieving this requires effectively integrating and leveraging the distinct roles of the DOD, interagency partners, the intelligence community (IC), and the Joint Force, including components like USSOF that have not been traditionally prioritized in strategic competition. For the past two decades, USSOF achieved critical operational successes during the Global War on Terror, primarily through counterterrorism and direct-action missions. However, peer and near-peer competition now demands a broader application of USSOF’s twelve core activities, with emphasis on seven: special reconnaissance, foreign internal defense, security force assistance, civil affairs operations, military information support operations, unconventional warfare, and direct action. Over the next decade, the DOD should emphasize USSOF’s return to its roots—the core competencies USSOF conducted and refined during the Cold War. USSOF’s unconventional warfare support of resistance groups in Europe; its support of covert intelligence operations in Eastern Europe, Asia, and Latin America; its evacuation missions of civilians in Africa; and its guerrilla and counterguerrilla operations helped combat Soviet influence operations worldwide. During that era, special operations became one of the US military’s key enablers to counter coercion below the threshold of armed conflict, and that is how USSOF should be applied in the next decade to help manage strategic competition. This report outlines five ways the Department of Defense should use Special Operations Forces over the next decade to support US efforts in strategic competition. USSOF should be leveraged to: Enhance the US government’s situational awareness of strategic competition dynamics globally. Entangle adversaries in competition to prevent escalation. Strengthen allied and partner resilience to support the US strategy of deterrence by denial. Support integration across domains for greater effect at the tactical edge Contribute to US information and decision advantage by leveraging USSOF’s role as a technological pathfinder. This report seeks to clarify USSOF’s role in strategic competition over the next decade, address gaps in understanding within the DOD and the broader national security community about USSOF’s competencies, and guide future resource and force development decisions. By prioritizing the above five functions, USSOF can bolster the US competitive edge and support the DOD’s management of challenges across diverse theaters and domains.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, National Security, Terrorism, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Middle East, Latin America, and United States of America

32. Trade with Colombia is big business for US exporters—amid growing Chinese influence in Latin America

Author:
Geoff Ramsey and Enrique Millán-Mejía
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Colombia and the United States have achieved a close, mutually beneficial partnership over several decades on migration, security, counternarcotics, and commerce—with the US trade surplus with Colombia totaling $1.3 billion in 2024. The Colombian market is particularly important for US agricultural producers. Thanks to the US-Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement (TPA), Colombia is the top destination for US agricultural exports in South America and the third main destination in the Western Hemisphere. The United States is still Colombia’s largest trading partner in South America—with $36.7 billion in two-way trade in 2024—but January data showed Chinese products leading over US imports for the month. The TPA promotes both reciprocal trade and US influence; interpretative improvements to previously agreed-upon matters are possible,
Topic:
Economy, Business, Tariffs, Exports, Trade, and International Markets
Political Geography:
China, Colombia, South America, Latin America, and United States of America

33. Human Rights Impact Assessment of Bolton Food’s Canned Tuna Supply Chain in Ecuador

Author:
Giorgia Ceccarelli
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
This paper presents the first of three Human Rights Impact Assessments (HRIAs) conducted by Oxfam on behalf of Bolton Food, focusing on its tuna supply chain in Ecuador between 2021 and 2022. The assessment evaluates both actual and potential human rights impacts at the production stage of the value chain. It seeks to identify the root causes of these risks and impacts and to provide actionable recommendations to Bolton Food and relevant stakeholders on how to address, mitigate, or remediate them. For the purposes of this assessment, the primary group of rights-holders identified includes male and female workers employed in canned tuna processing plants in Manta, as well as male workers aboard tuna fishing vessels operating in the Eastern Pacific Ocean.
Topic:
Supply Chains, Tuna, Due Diligence, and Living Wage
Political Geography:
Latin America, Central America, and Ecuador

34. Women Political Leaders as Agents of Environmental Change

Author:
Inés Berniell, Mariana Marchionni, Julian Pedrazzi, and Mariana Viollaz
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
This paper explores how female political leaders impact environmental outcomes and climate change policy actions using data from mixed-gender mayoral races in Brazil. Using a Regression Discontinuity design we find that, compared to male mayors, female mayors significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This effect is driven by a reduction in emissions intensity (CO2e/GDP) in the Land Use sector, without changes in municipal economic activity. Part of the reduction in emissions in the Land Use sector is attributable to a decline in deforestation. We examine potential mechanisms that could explain the positive environmental impact of narrowly electing a female mayor over a male counterpart and find that in Amazon municipalities, female elected mayors allocate more space to the environment in their government proposals and are more likely to invest in environmental initiatives. Differences in the enforcement of environmental regulations do not explain the results.
Topic:
Climate Change, Politics, Elections, Women, Leadership, and Gender
Political Geography:
Brazil, Latin America, and Amazon Basin

35. Slowing Down, Heating Up: Economic Deceleration and Social Discontent in Latin America

Author:
Iván Albina, Jessica Bracco, Leonardo Gasparini, and Luis Laguinge
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
There have been widespread public expressions of discontent throughout Latin America since the early 2010s. We exploit harmonized microdata from national household surveys covering nearly all Latin American countries to explore potential sources of discontent driven by income changes along the income distribution. We also estimate fixed-effects models that link discontent measures to changes in household incomes. Our results suggest that discontent may stem less from absolute economic performance during the 2010s than from the significant deceleration relative to the previous decade.
Topic:
Economics, Inequality, Income, Discontent, and Deceleration
Political Geography:
Latin America

36. Minimum Wages and Skill Premiums: Evidence for Latin America

Author:
Lucía Ramírez Leira, Octavio Bertín, and Leonardo Gasparini
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the effect of the minimum wage on skill premiums in Latin America over the period 1997–2019. The canonical labor market model is extended to include the role of the minimum wage, following the approach proposed by Vogel (2023). Skill premiums are estimated through Two-Way Fixed Effects (TWFE) regressions using harmonized household survey microdata from 14 Latin American countries. Results suggest that increases in the minimum wage are associated with reductions in the skill premium between workers with and without higher education, but do not appear to have a significant effect on the gap between workers with medium and low levels of education. The largest effect of the minimum wage is observed for workers with higher levels of labor market experience. These findings contribute to recent evidence highlighting the role of labor institutions as one of the main drivers of the reduction in inequality in Latin America since the early 2000s.
Topic:
Economics, Inequality, Skilled Labor, Minimum Wage, and Wages
Political Geography:
Latin America

37. Uncertainty in Caracas: What Awaits Venezuela's Maduro in his Third Term?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
On January 10, 2025, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was sworn in for a third six-year term. The opposition condemned this event as a "coup," accusing Maduro of election fraud in connection with the presidential elections held on July 28, 2024. In response, the government organized a rally in support of Maduro in the capital. Meanwhile, the opposition staged a protest led by Maria Corina Machado, who made her first public appearance since August 2024.
Topic:
Economics, Elections, Protests, Organized Crime, Social Unrest, and Nicolas Maduro
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and Venezuela

38. The Consolidation of Liberal Democracy in Brazil: Encountering Global, Regional, and Local Representations

Author:
Daniela Vieria Secches
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Contexto Internacional
Institution:
Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:
The globally expanded international society established a standard of statehood as central criteria for its membership. The end of the Cold War witnessed an ascendant, albeit contested, liberal democracy as a preferred regime in global imaginaries. Within this context, the re-democratization processes experienced in Latin America amid profound international systemic reorientations implied the renegotiation of regional and local social imaginaries, as, for example, in the Brazilian case. In this article, we seek to discuss Brazil’s selective and creative adaptation in the space of overlaps between global, regional, and local social imaginaries about the government regime since the 1990s. Through a theoretical-empirical approach based on the discussion about the construction of shared understandings between international and domestic social spaces, we opted for a pragmatic theoretical foundation with the support of the English School of International Relations, critical philosophy, and the sociology of Bourdieu to study the Brazilian case. By focusing on the Fernando Henrique Cardoso government, it is proposed to qualitatively analyse documents from the period that problematize the country’s external insertion based on the interaction with the global and the regional social imaginaries about liberal democracy, with the support of a bibliographical review grounded on specialized secondary sources
Topic:
Democracy, Social Imaginary, Domestic Politics, and International Society
Political Geography:
Brazil, Latin America, and South America

39. ‘Maximum pressure’ sanctions on Venezuela help US adversaries, hurt Venezuelans

Author:
William Tobin
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The “maximum pressure” strategy employed from 2018 to 2022 against the illegitimate Nicolás Maduro regime in Venezuela did not serve US interests. Stringent oil sanctions imposed on Venezuela forced the retreat of Western oil firms from the country, principally benefitting adversaries. During the maximum pressure campaign, Venezuela’s oil production was rerouted to China at discounted prices, Iran supplied the diluent Venezuela required for oil production, and Russian investors became more critical amid a dearth on Western investment. A democratic transition remained elusive while repression and human rights violations continued. Venezuelans suffered, US adversaries expanded their influence, and Maduro remained. The current system of issuing specific licenses for Western oil producers to operate in Venezuela has yielded superior results. The benefits of this policy have been the following: Venezuelan oil exports have been diverted to friendly nations. Treasury has increased visibility on all oil-related transactions, decreasing the clandestine shipment of oil through shadow tanker fleets operated by the Chinese defense establishment, Iran, or PDVSA. Compensation to the regime is limited to taxes and royalties, which are required by Venezuelan law. The system has enabled the return or reemployment of qualified engineers and technicians to restore production from degraded oilfield infrastructure. The incoming US administration should prioritize inflicting more harm on the regime and its enablers than the Venezuelan people—or US interests. To do so, sanctions must be linked to clear objectives. An uncalibrated reapplication of maximum pressure would cede influence to China, Russia, and Iran, while doing little to loosen the regime’s grip on power. Instead, the existing system of specific licenses should be maintained and expanded. To punish Maduro, the administration should continue to target individuals who enable his illegitimate rule, adding to the 180 individuals already sanctioned by the Treasury. A targeted sanctions policy—not maximum pressure—is the only way to ensure that US actions to confront the Maduro regime impose their desired effect, and do not play into the hands of Beijing, Moscow, or Tehran.
Topic:
Markets, Governance, Sanctions, Geopolitics, Economy, and Energy
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, Venezuela, and United States of America

40. Institutional Structures of Latin American Countries for Accession and Participation in the OECD

Author:
Lucas da Silva Tasquetto, Magali Favaretto Prieto Fernandes, and Milena da Fonseca Azevedo
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Contexto Internacional
Institution:
Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:
This article delineates the institutional structures established by Mexico, Chile, Colombia, and Costa Rica to facilitate their accession to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The analysis delves into the political and economic contexts surrounding each country’s accession process, identifying key institutions and stakeholders domestic reforms required, and particular initiatives from each country, including institutional innovations and adapted procedures. Notably, each country exhibits unique institutional frameworks and adjustments, with varying prominence given to individuals and governmental entities based on constitutional, legal, and political-administrative configurations. We argue that, despite the uniqueness of each process, from an institutional standpoint, decisions concerning accession and the management of the process predominantly revolve around the Presidency and entities corresponding to the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, with variations in the preponderance of these bodies, and their leadership and coordination roles. Framing entry into the OECD primarily as a technical matter tends to justify the central role of the Ministries of Finance and affiliated bodies within the Presidency, aligned with the OECD’s liberal approach. Moreover, accession to the OECD often complements and/or legitimizes processes of trade openness and structural reforms, spurring consolidation of factions within domestic institutions.
Topic:
OECD, Institutions, Politics, and Economics
Political Geography:
Latin America, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, and Mexico

41. The geoeconomic turn in the Americas: The Dominican Republic at the centre of Washington’s return

Author:
Lauri Tähtinen
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
The tide is turning rapidly as the United States shifts its response to China’s industrial rise, with Washington returning to the Western Hemisphere in search of not only new trade relationships but also industrial, foreign, and security policies. This shift reflects a geoeconomic turn in the Americas, where economic actors – from drug cartels to critical supply-chain partners – are increasingly treated as security concerns, blurring the line between commerce and security. The Dominican Republic is positioning itself as a partner in both the joint development of the Americas and US security. Its growing alignment with the United States reflects global shifts elsewhere, such as in Finland’s relationship with Washington. The Dominican Republic’s sustained economic growth and its location between the US territory of Puerto Rico and the region’s security challenges place it at the centre of Washington’s attempt to re-engineer hemispheric value chains and security partnerships.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Economic Growth, Trade, Supply Chains, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:
Latin America, North America, and United States of America

42. Mexico and the Fourth Transformation

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
Since 2018, Mexico’s National Regeneration Movement (Morena) has sought to roll back neoliberalism and democratise the country. Though the ideological battle has advanced, economic transformation continues to lag behind.
Topic:
Democratization, Economy, Neoliberalism, Ideology, and Fourth Industrial Revolution
Political Geography:
Latin America and Mexico

43. The Joy of Reading

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
Reading and popular literacy programmes have played an important role in revolutionary processes, from the Mexican, Chinese, and Russian revolutions in the early twentieth century to today.
Topic:
Revolution, Literacy, and Reading
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Eurasia, Asia, Latin America, and Mexico

44. Paradise Lost? Ecuador’s Battle with Organised Crime

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
What’s new? Once one of South America’s safest countries, Ecuador has in under a decade become its most violent, transforming into a hub of the drug trade to Europe. President Daniel Noboa’s iron-fist approach brought murder rates down at first, but violence has since soared again and crime continues unabated. Why does it matter? Ecuador’s authorities have declared the country to be in the grip of internal armed conflict, deploying soldiers to prisons and crime-hit communities. With no sign of violence falling, the government is set to double down on its tough approach, expanding cooperation with the U.S. military and private security contractors. What should be done? Crackdowns send a strong message to communities and criminals alike, but alone they tend not to overwhelm drug markets. Ecuador should do more to bring state services and licit economic opportunities to crime-hit neighbourhoods while quelling the corruption in ports, prisons and the state that helps generate the crime wave.
Topic:
Corruption, Violence, Organized Crime, and Drug Trafficking
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and Ecuador

45. Feature Commentary: Confronting Cartels: Military Considerations South of the Border

Author:
Brian Michael Jenkins
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
Possible U.S. military action against Mexico’s drug cartels poses unique challenges. The situation is complicated, and the United States must be prepared for possible counteractions. The cartels are not a single actor. If attacked, they may avoid direct confrontation, accepting temporary losses, anticipating that the United States will not sustain a long campaign. Or Mexico’s cartels may respond violently, exploiting U.S. vulnerabilities in Mexico—and possibly north of the border. The government of Mexico is a separate actor. It can assist or undermine U.S. efforts. Past government campaigns against the cartels led to soaring rates of criminal violence. Chaos in Mexico could have serious implications for U.S. homeland security. The United States needs a ‘Red Team’ to examine a range of scenarios. The article proceeds in six parts: Part I contrasts recent U.S. military actions in Yemen and Iran with possible military action in Mexico. Part II examines perceptions of the threat. Part III examines how the history of U.S.-Mexico relations will shape the battlefield. Part IV reviews our own experience in combating foreign drug traffickers, offering some preliminary takeaways. Part V examines possible options. Part VI looks at how the cartels might react, how the United States might be forced to respond—and how other adversaries of the United States might attempt to exploit the situation.
Topic:
Counter-terrorism, Borders, Organized Crime, Cartels, and Military Operations
Political Geography:
Latin America, North America, Mexico, and United States of America

46. Beyond Exceptionalism: Costa Rica in Historical and Regional Context

Author:
Carlos Alvarado Quesada, Ariana Palomo, and Michelle Alas
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
Carlos Alvarado Quesada served as the 48th President of the Republic of Costa Rica from May 2018 to May 2022, when his constitutionally limited term ended. Under President Alvarado’s leadership, Costa Rica contributed to global efforts to combat climate change and defended human rights, democ- racy, and multilateralism. President Alvarado is a recipient of the 2022 Planetary Leadership Award by the National Geographic Society for his outstanding commitment and action toward protecting the ocean and in September 2019 he received on behalf of his country the Champion on the Earth Award for policy leadership, presented by the United Nations Environment Program. President Alvarado’s prior government leadership service includes a tenure as Minister of Labor and Social Security (2016-2018) and as Minister of Human Development and Social Inclusion (2014–2016) and Executive President of the Joint Social Welfare Institute, responsible for implementing social protection and promoting poverty alleviation programs. Before entering politics, he worked for Procter and Gamble, Latin America.
Topic:
History, Multilateralism, Interview, Exceptionalism, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Latin America and Costa Rica

47. El estado de la Unión Europea 2025

Author:
Francisco Aldecoa, Carlos Carnero, Enrique Ayala, José Candela, and Björn Hacker
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:
Europa afronta en el segundo cuarto del siglo xxi una transformación profunda del orden geopolítico y geoeconómico. A la comunidad internacional nacida de la postguerra hace 80 años le sucede la pretensión de potencias como Estados Unidos, China y Rusia de acabar con la naturaleza multilateral de un orden global que tiene como símbolo las Naciones Unidas y las instituciones de Bretton Woods. Se trata de sustituirlo por un orden nacionalista, aislacionista y proteccionista. En este Informe se estudia la forma en la que la Unión Europea ha de abordar retos importantes relacionados con ese cambio del orden global, así como las políticas internas que competen a la Unión, entre ellas la triple transformación digital, ecológica y social.
Topic:
Nationalism, Science and Technology, European Union, Geopolitics, Inequality, Economy, Political Science, Protectionism, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, Latin America, United States of America, and Sub-Saharan Africa

48. Latin America’s Role in De-Risking Semiconductor Supply Chains

Author:
Ryan C. Berg and Rubi Bledsoe
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
While the semiconductor supply chain currently spans several continents, China has made efforts to develop a self-sufficient semiconductor manufacturing ecosystem through industrial policies such as “Made in China 2025,” which presents a direct strategic and economic challenge to the United States. De-risking the semiconductor supply chain, particularly that of “legacy chips,” is of paramount importance, particularly at a time in which the Trump administration considers imposing additional sectoral tariffs on semiconductors. Latin America sits at the juncture of possibility and opportunity at a critical time for the expansion of semiconductor manufacturing, providing some of the key elements and capabilities that allow for semiconductor assembly, testing, and packaging as well as final integration into electronics. For companies relying on semiconductor manufacturing, diversifying production sources is key to reducing the risks associated with supply chain disruptions and great power competition.
Topic:
Manufacturing, Strategic Competition, Supply Chains, and Semiconductors
Political Geography:
Latin America

49. Key Considerations for Future Temporary Protection and Regularization Programs in Latin America

Author:
Diego Chaves-González and María Jesús Mora
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
Migration has become an enduring reality in Latin America, reshaping societies and challenging traditional notions of borders and belonging. Faced with large-scale displacement from Venezuela over the past decade, countries across the region—many more used to emigration than immigration—have developed novel temporary protection and regularization programs. These have complemented or been offered instead of leveraging existing migration and asylum processes to manage arrivals. The temporary and ad hoc measures that have proliferated have offered countries flexible tools to rapidly respond to migration pressures, but their temporariness has over time created uncertainty for migrants and receiving communities alike. As countries across the region begin to think through their second-generation policy approaches, it is vital for policymakers to understand the trade-offs between different design elements. This report analyzes and compares different temporary protection and regularization initiatives, drawing examples from 11 countries/regions in and beyond Latin America (Brazil, Chile, Colombia, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, the European Union, Morocco, Peru, Spain, Turkey, and the United States). The report also offers recommendations for countries looking to move beyond temporary solutions to more durable, long-term policy frameworks, and in doing so, to avoid the pitfalls of partial immigrant integration and to more fully leverage migration’s potential benefits.
Topic:
Employment, Social Cohesion, Immigration Policy, and Temporary Protection Status (TPS)
Political Geography:
Latin America

50. Violence has gone down during Xiomara Castro’s term, but has security improved in Honduras?

Author:
Tiziano Breda
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
Armed violence has significantly decreased during President Xiomara Castro’s term so far, particularly in the country’s main cities that have long been plagued by gang violence. The measures adopted by the outgoing Castro administration do not fully explain the drop, which suggests it also responds to shifts in gang dynamics and tactics. Violence in rural areas, often linked to land disputes, has significantly increased in the Colón and Olancho departments. The expansion of coca crops in mostly rural departments hints at the diversification of drug trafficking groups’ activities and poses an added risk for rural security.
Topic:
Security, Domestic Politics, Violence, Rural, Organized Crime, and Gangs
Political Geography:
Latin America and Honduras