Political Geography: Latin America / Publication Year: within 5 Years

1. Iran may be a turning point for US regime change objectives in Latin America

Author:: Tiziano Breda and Sandra Pellegrini
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: In Venezuela, Operation Absolute Resolve caused no American fatalities, and Nicolás Maduro was captured swiftly and replaced with Delcy Rodríguez, who embarked on normalization of relations with the United States and reforms that benefit US interests. In contrast, Operation Epic Fury in Iran has already seen hundreds of American service members injured and seven killed; Iranian retaliation has inflicted serious political costs on the US and allies; and the replacement for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, killed in US-Israeli operations, is his son, a fellow hard-liner — signaling Iranian defiance rather than concessions. The risk of increasing entanglement in Iran will likely weaken US capacity and dampen domestic appetite for further intervention, at least ahead of the November mid-term elections. Sustained US military engagement in the Middle East may further divert some of its resources deployed in the Caribbean, already deprived of the USS Gerald Ford aircraft carrier.1 This, in turn, may limit the credibility of any threat of further US operations in Venezuela or Cuba, hindering Trump’s ability to extract concessions from Caracas and Havana, particularly those related to democratization. Cuba remains a US priority: Trump has reiterated warnings of imminent changes in the island.2 However, recent US-Cuba engagement suggests that a negotiated political settlement, rather than a direct and costly military operation as in Venezuela, has gained traction. The US has applied pressure to bring the Cuban regime to the negotiating table. A blockade on oil exports has already triggered several power outages that have affected all sectors of the economy and access to basic necessities, and these are likely to deepen as oil import prices hike. The shortages risk heightening social discontent and increase domestic pressure on the government. Previous spikes in demonstrations in Cuba have been spurred by fuel and energy shortages, and recent protests suggest this dynamic remains potent.3
Topic:: Regime Change, Military Intervention, Armed Conflict, Energy, and Operation Epic Fury
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Cuba, Latin America, Venezuela, North America, and United States of America

2. “Luciérnagas en El Mozote” And The Battle Over Historical Memory in El Salvador

Author:: Kevin Ramírez
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: A state-backed film detailing the 1981 massacre at El Mozote raises thorny questions about the country’s civil war as the victims continue fighting for justice.
Topic:: Civil War, Transitional Justice, Memory, and Accountability
Political Geography:: Latin America and El Salvador

3. An LGBTQ+ Win in the Dominican Republic Comes Under Fire

Author:: Simón Rodríguez
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Despite the recent decriminalization of same-sex relationships in the armed forces and police, the ruling is being attacked by the right-wing government and its allies.
Topic:: Armed Forces, LGBT+, Police, Decriminalization, and Right-Wing Politics
Political Geography:: Latin America and Dominican Republic

4. Bolivians Enter a New Era of Popular Struggles

Author:: Gabriel Rodríguez García
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: After a series of protests over cuts to fuel subsidies brought the country to a halt, Bolivia’s powerful social movements embark on a new chapter and face new forms of repression.
Topic:: Social Movement, Repression, Fossil Fuels, and Subsidies
Political Geography:: Latin America and Bolivia

5. Powering data centers in emerging markets

Author:: Phillip Cornell
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The rise of artificial intelligence and global demand for cloud computing is rapidly redrawing the geography of digital infrastructure. The International Energy Agency projects that global data center electricity consumption will more than double by 2030 to 945 terawatt hours, with AI-optimized servers driving the bulk of that growth. As mature digital hubs in the United States, Europe, and East Asia run up against the limits of grid capacity, permitting cycles, and land availability, investment is shifting toward emerging markets. Large parts of Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Latin America, Africa, and the Black Sea region feature available land, high renewables potential, stranded energy, and accelerating digital demand. This report examines the conditions under which emerging economies can convert that interest into durable, smart, digital infrastructure. It argues that emerging markets are not merely overflow capacity for saturated hubs but increasingly demand centers in their own right; India for example hosts 20 percent of the world’s data yet accounts for less than 6 percent of global capacity. The same markets, however, present structural risks: limited grid redundancy, volatile electricity pricing, uneven regulation, equipment bottlenecks, and shallow workforce pipelines. Drawing on case studies from Malaysia’s Johor corridor, South Africa, Brazil, Turkey, and India, the report shows how hybrid energy strategies, coordinated permitting, and workforce investment can convert latent advantages into bankable infrastructure.
Topic:: Emerging Markets, Infrastructure, Artificial Intelligence, Energy, and Data Centers
Political Geography:: Africa, South Asia, Turkey, Latin America, and Indo-Pacific

6. Local Care and Feminist Foreign Policy: Lessons Learned from Mexico City’s UTOPÍAS

Author:: Evyn Papworth
Publication Date:: 06-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:: As feminist foreign policies face growing political backlash around the world, questions remain about how states can ensure these policies are grounded in the lived realities of the communities they seek to serve. One way to bridge the gap between international commitments and domestic implementation is through the care economy. This policy paper examines Mexico City’s UTOPÍAS—publicly funded community centers that provide care services, educational opportunities, cultural programming, and support for economic autonomy. Drawing on field research and interviews with policymakers, civil society representatives, and community members, the paper explores how these centers embody feminist principles through an intersectional approach to care, gender equality, and social inclusion. The paper argues that initiatives like the UTOPÍAS demonstrate how local governments can advance transformative care policies while contributing to broader feminist foreign policy goals. It highlights the potential of municipal feminist diplomacy and city-to-city exchanges as avenues for sharing innovative approaches to care, human security, and gender equality across borders.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economy, Feminism, and Autonomy
Political Geography:: Latin America, Mexico, and Mexico City

7. From Narco Cartels to Criminal Networks: The Structural Transformation of Organized Crime in Latin America and the Caribbean

Author:: Igarapé Institute
Publication Date:: 06-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Igarapé Institute
Abstract:: atin America and the Caribbean’s major criminal groups can no longer be understood simply as regional drug trafficking organizations moving cocaine through global markets. That image belongs to an earlier phase. Today, several of these organizations exercise territorial authority, generate revenue from both licit and illicit economies, and shape political life from the ground up. Across the region, they are expanding into strategic sectors, exploiting regulatory weaknesses, and transforming new financial technologies into instruments of concealment and control. The criminal landscape of Latin America and the Caribbean has entered a more complex and dangerous phase. Cocaine production has reached record levels, and Mexican, Brazilian, Colombian, and Ecuadorian criminal organizations have become deeply embedded in global logistics networks, including major European ports such as Antwerp, Hamburg, Le Havre, Rotterdam, and Valencia. Their resilience no longer depends on violence alone. It rests on the protective systems they build around themselves, the revenue streams they control, and the local authority they accumulate where the state is predatory, selective, or absent. This is as much a governance problem as it is a security problem. Criminal groups are not simply attacking the state from the outside. In many places, they operate through the everyday machinery of public authority, turning institutional weaknesses into strategic advantages and public office into a source of protection. This constitutes a core element of criminal governance, enabling criminal organizations to absorb law-enforcement pressure, recover from territorial losses, and survive the removal or replacement of their leaders. In this article, we identify six major transformations. First, the Covid-19 pandemic disrupted criminal supply chains in the short term but deepened poverty, weakened state capacity, and expanded informal economies in ways that accelerated criminal expansion once restrictions were lifted. Second, criminal groups diversified their revenue streams across an increasingly wide range of sectors and supply chains. Third, criminal logistics became globalized. Fourth, state responses across the region increasingly favored militarized emergency models capable of reducing visible violence in the short term while leaving criminal finance, corruption, and illicit governance structures largely intact. Fifth, organized crime’s corrosive effect on democratic institutions intensified through the capture of electoral, judicial, municipal, and security institutions. Sixth, a tougher U.S. security posture reshaped the hemisphere through terrorist designations, lethal maritime strikes, coercive diplomacy, deeper operational partnerships, and pressure on governments viewed as insufficiently aligned with Washington’s counter-narcotics and migration-control priorities.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Governance, Organized Crime, Cartels, Illicit Financial Flows, Drug Trafficking, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: Latin America and Caribbean

8. Intergenerational Mobility and Populist Attitudes in Latin America

Author:: Bautista Santamarina, Matias Ciaschi, and Mariana Marchionni
Publication Date:: 06-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: This paper examines the relationship between intergenerational educational mobility and populist attitudes in Latin America, a region characterized by low levels of intergenerational mobility and a long-standing presence of populist leadership. In contexts where social origin strongly predicts individual outcomes, perceptions of unfairness may create fertile ground for populist narratives. Using harmonized microdata from 18 waves of the Latinobarómetro survey covering individuals born between 1940 and 2000, we document a robust negative association between intergenerational mobility and populist attitudes across multiple indicators, including anti-democratic attitudes, support for military governments, anti-immigrant sentiments, and institutional distrust. These results hold when using a relative mobility measure that captures pure positional change net of structural trends, and at the cohort level when exploiting standard mobility measures from the literature. Cohort-level estimates further reveal that the effect of persistence is amplified in high-inequality contexts, suggesting that immobility and contemporaneous inequality act as complements in shaping political discontent. Decomposing inequality into opportunity and effort components, we find evidence suggesting that populist attitudes are mostly driven by inequalities of opportunity. These findings suggest that the persistent emergence of populist leadership in Latin America is linked to the region’s stubbornly low intergenerational mobility and unequal access to opportunities.
Topic:: Democracy, Populism, Social Mobility, and Intergenerational
Political Geography:: Latin America

9. Data Challenges and Innovations in Measuring Domestic Violence in Latin America and the Caribbean: Traditional Sources and Online Search Patterns

Author:: Inés Berniell, Gabriel Facchini, and Santiago M. Perez-Vincent
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: This study examines the challenges of analyzing domestic violence (DV) in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) and seeks to improve measurement through two main contributions. First, we collect and describe traditional DV data sources (household surveys and administrative records) across 19 countries. The analysis reveals substantial gaps in data availability, with infrequent and outdated survey efforts in most countries. Nevertheless, surveys confirm high DV prevalence, with at least one in five women reporting victimization in all countries examined, and highlight pervasive underreporting that limits the reliability of administrative crime data. Second, we examine the properties of a novel, high-frequency indicator based on online search behavior: the Google Domestic Violence Index. Using administrative data from eight LAC countries, we find that the index is strongly correlated with calls to DV helplines but shows weaker association with police reports or emergency calls. The evidence suggests that the index captures early-stage, information-seeking behavior and may provide a real-time signal of latent victimization not reflected in official statistics. Our findings underscore the potential of digital data to complement traditional sources and to support more timely, responsive approaches to tracking DV.
Topic:: Internet, Data, Domestic Violence, and Google
Political Geography:: Latin America and Caribbean

10. Understanding Latin America’s Fertility Decline: Age, Education, and Cohort Dynamics

Author:: Milagros Onofri, Inés Berniell, Raquel Fernandez, and Azul Menduiña
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: This paper examines the sharp decline in fertility across Latin America using both period and cohort measures. Combining Vital Statistics, Census microdata, and UN population data, we decompose changes in fertility by age, education, and joint age–education groups. We show that the decline in period fertility between 2000 and 2022 is driven primarily by reductions in within-group birth rates rather than by changes in population composition, with the largest contributions coming from younger and less-educated women. Comparing the cohort born in the mid 1950s and the one born in the mid 1970s, we find that the decline in completed fertility reflects not only delayed childbearing but also substantial reductions in the average number of children per woman. This is driven primarily by lower fertility among mothers rather than by rising childlessness. Our findings provide new evidence on the nature of Latin America’s transition to below-replacement fertility and highlight several open questions for future research.
Topic:: Demographics, Education, Fertility, and Age
Political Geography:: Latin America

11. Diversifying Partnerships: What Are the Motives Behind the South Korean President’s Tour of Latin America?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: South Korean President Lee Jae-myung visited three Latin American countries — Brazil, Chile, and Argentina — his first such visit since assuming office in June 2025. The trip formed part of a broader 11-day foreign tour, held from July 24 to August 3, 2026, that also took him to San Francisco and Frankfurt. During his stops in Latin America, Lee held summit talks with his counterparts from the three countries, focused on expanding trade and investment, opening new markets, resuming negotiations on a free trade agreement between Korea and the “Mercosur” bloc, updating the free trade agreement with Chile, and expanding the horizons of Korean diplomacy toward the Global South.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Global South, and Trade
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, Brazil, Argentina, Latin America, and Chile

12. Another Transatlanticism Is Possible: Europe’s Moment in Latin America amid Trump’s Return

Author:: Raffaele Piras
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Donald Trump’s return to the White House has reignited his hallmark “America First” agenda, with significant consequences for Latin America. During his inaugural address, Trump emphasised the need to regain US control of the Panama Canal, framing it as a cornerstone of national security amidst heightened competition with China.[1] This rhetoric marks the continuation of a policy approach that relies on coercion and transactional diplomacy to achieve US objectives. While Trump’s focus on Latin America will undoubtedly reshape the region’s geopolitical dynamics, it also presents a strategic opportunity for the European Union to strengthen its role as a stabilising force and reliable partner.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, European Union, Institutions, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: Europe, Latin America, North America, and United States of America

13. The U.S. Pursues Increasingly Aggressive Policy towards Latin America

Author:: Bartłomiej Znojek
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Donald Trump’s administration is seeking to rebuild U.S. influence in Latin America. It is trying to convince the countries of the region that cooperation with the United States will bring development and increased security to the Americas. For the time being, however, this approach mainly serves U.S. security interests, in particular combating irregular migration, organised crime and drug trafficking, and reducing China’s influence. The current administration’s threats, inconsistent positions, and expansionist drive will deepen the distrust of the U.S. and antagonise important Latin American partners.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Migration, Donald Trump, Strategic Interests, and Drug Trafficking
Political Geography:: Latin America and United States of America

14. Korea’s Trade Policy Priorities with Latin America: Future Directions

Author:: Sungwoo Hong
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: Despite Latin America’s potential as a trading partner, Korea’s exports to Latin America have continuously decreased over the past 10 years, while imports from Latin America have been increasing. The fact that Korea’s exports to these countries have decreased since the conclusion of FTAs with Chile, Peru, and Colombia suggests that it is time to identify the cause of Korea’s decline in exports to Latin America and seek opportunities to expand exports. One reason for the decline in Korea’s exports to Latin America is the decline in Korean companies' investment in Latin America. The correlation coefficient between Korea’s investment in Latin America and exports is quite high, indicating that the decline in investment since the mid-2010s has had a direct impact on the decline in exports to Latin America. As a short-term trade policy goal to consider, I propose establishing and activating a channel for cooperation between Korea and Latin America. It is possible to establish new dialogue channels and revive existing ones, centered on countries where consultative bodies such as the Resources Cooperation Committee, Senior Policy Council, and Joint Economic Committee have already been established, making this a more cost-effective approach compared to other initiatives As a task to be pursued from a long-term perspective, I propose preparing for the possibility of economic integration between the United States and Central America. Assuming that the conflict between the United States and China will continue in the future, expanding economic integration between the United States and Central America can be positive for Korea in that it can alleviate some of the uncertainty Mexico currently has as a bridgehead targeting the US export market. However, expanding economic integration between the United States and Central America is not only difficult for Korea to directly intervene in, but also requires economic and diplomatic efforts in parallel, meaning it may be difficult to achieve in the short or medium term, and thus needs to be pursued as a long-term task. Central American countries, excluding Nicaragua, may be countries that currently have a demand for increasing the level of economic integration with the United States, and the United States may also consider expanding economic integration with them.
Topic:: Investment, Exports, Trade Policy, and Economic Integration
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, and Latin America

15. Toward a More Effective DoD Contribution to Strategic Competition in the Western Hemisphere

Author:: R. Evan Ellis
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Book
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: Innovative new thinking on the security dimension of the challenges posed by the PRC’s engagement in Latin America and the DoD’s role in the whole-of-government US response is needed. This monograph highlights risks from PRC influence networks, digital architectures, and dual-use commercial facilities in the region, particularly at ports and in the space sector; shows how PRC economic engagement and other support sustains illiberal regimes, indirectly contributing to the risks these regimes pose by hosting criminal and terrorist groups and other US adversaries, such as Russia and Iran; and illustrates how commercial, people-to-people, and security engagements create options for the PRC to exploit against the United States in times of war. It advocates for new effects-based strategic concepts for how the DoD can strengthen cooperation with the region and limit PRC access through enhanced security cooperation and leveraging partners’ valuation of their relationships with the United States to influence their choices regarding cooperation with the PRC and gain better situational awareness for responding to China. Finally, it discusses how the United States should work with regional partners to plan for likely PRC actions in the region in times of war, leveraging the presence, relationships, and knowledge created through engagement.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Strategic Competition, and Security Cooperation
Political Geography:: China, Latin America, and Caribbean

16. The Modern Surveillance State: Mexico and the CIA during the Cold War

Author:: Claire Dorfman
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Newly declassified CIA documents reveal the links between Mexico’s contemporary surveillance state and a uniquely close Cold War collaboration with U.S. intelligence agencies.
Topic:: Cold War, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)
Political Geography:: Latin America and Mexico

17. Community Forestry Addresses Environmental Destruction in Mexico

Author:: Linda Farthing
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Community-based governance structures put decision-making about Ixlán de Juarez’s forests into local hands, creating economic opportunity and reversing centuries of deforestation in the town.
Topic:: Environment, Governance, Deforestation, Forestry, and Community Initiatives
Political Geography:: Latin America and Mexico

18. Neofascist March Calls for the Expulsion of Haitians in Punta Cana

Author:: Simón Rodríguez
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: A recent violent and destructive march calling for the expulsion of Haitians in Punta Cana demonstrates the vehement anti-Haitianism and rising fascism prevalent in the Dominican Republic.
Topic:: Economics, Far Right, Migrant Workers, and Neofascism
Political Geography:: Latin America, Caribbean, Haiti, and Dominican Republic

19. The Life of a Trans Mexican Revolutionary, in Drag

Author:: Olivia Ferrari
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Drag performers mine the story of the revolutionary hero and trans icon Amelio Robles to better understand the past and shape the future.
Topic:: History, Transgender, Amelio Robles, Drag, and Mexican Revolution
Political Geography:: Latin America and Mexico

20. Trump and the Threat of Domestic Militarization

Author:: Dawn Paley and Ojalá
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Mexico's experience with the militarization of prohibition and migration is defined by violence and displacement.
Topic:: Migration, Displacement, Violence, Donald Trump, and Militarization
Political Geography:: Latin America and Mexico

21. Forensic Crisis Reveals Institutional Responsibility in Mexico City’s Disappearance Crisis

Author:: Eliana Gilet, Madeleine Wattenbarger, and Gleider I. Hernández
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: In Mexico City, families of the disappeared mobilize for justice for their loved ones and the accountability of forensic authorities.
Topic:: Crime, Accountability, Police, Disappearance, Activism, and Forensics
Political Geography:: Latin America, Mexico, and Mexico City

22. Buscadoras in Mexico Under Threat After Grisly Discovery

Author:: Joshua Collins and Daniela Diaz Rangel
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: News of a mass grave found by civilian search collectives has reopened an old debate about a lack of political will on the part of authorities to investigate violent crime.
Topic:: Crime, Accountability, Police, and Mass Grave
Political Geography:: Latin America and Mexico

23. Cuerpos Furiosos: Travesti-Trans Politics for Counterrevolutionary Times

Author:: Cole Rizki
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: The Spring 2025 issue of the NACLA Report explores travesti-trans politics across the Americas, an antifascist and transversal politics with the power to reshape our world.
Topic:: Politics, Transgender, Antifascism, and Travesti
Political Geography:: South America, Latin America, and Central America

24. Afro-Feminist Poetics and Trans Life in Cuba: A Conversation with Max Fonseca

Author:: Kerry M. White and Max Fonseca
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: The poet and activist talks about the precarity that trans, queer, and Afrodescendent people in Cuba face today, and the life sustaining worlds built by Black trans women in Cuba and its diaspora.
Topic:: Politics, Feminism, Interview, Transgender, Activism, and Afro-Feminism
Political Geography:: Cuba, Latin America, and Caribbean

25. “Carnival is Always Political”: Keeping Protest Alive in Trinidad

Author:: Khalea Robertson
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Designer Robert Young discusses the political activism woven into the costumes of his band, Vulgar Fraction, which participates annually in Trinidad and Tobago’s Carnival celebrations.
Topic:: Politics, Protests, Interview, and Carnival
Political Geography:: Latin America, Caribbean, and Trinidad and Tobago

26. Brazil’s Student Movement Resists the Far Right, at Home and Abroad

Author:: Alice Taylor
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: In the days after the Trump inauguration, Brazilian students gathered at the largest student congress in Latin America to debate the future of left resistance.
Topic:: Donald Trump, Leftist Politics, Students, and Activism
Political Geography:: Brazil, South America, and Latin America

27. Trump’s Latin America Policy: Inconsistencies and Vacillations

Author:: Steve Ellner
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: The Trump administration’s volatility on foreign policy reveals internal divisions within Trumpism. But when threats and populism lose their momentum, the anti-communist hawks may get their way.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Domestic Politics, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Latin America

28. The U.S. War on Migrants Gets Help from El Salvador

Author:: Timothy O'Farrell
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: El Salvador's offer to house deportees and U.S. citizens in its infamous prisons – for profit – signals a new and troubling escalation in the criminalization of migration.
Topic:: Migration, Prisons/Penal Systems, Donald Trump, Deportation, and Criminalization
Political Geography:: Latin America, El Salvador, and United States of America

29. Forbidden African Legacies in the Dominican Republic

Author:: Patricia Rodríguez
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Despite the ongoing criminalization and racist persecution of African tradition, from the criminalization of Vodou to restrictions against Gagá, Afro-Dominican culture persists.
Topic:: Culture, Racism, Tradition, Criminalization, and Vodou
Political Geography:: Africa, Latin America, and Dominican Republic

30. Why Latin America and the Caribbean matter for OECD countries

Author:: Jason Marczak and Martin Cassinelli
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: As global dynamics evolve, Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are becoming increasingly important partners for the member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The region offers valuable assets, policy alignment in key areas, and opportunities for enhanced collaboration on shared challenges. This report outlines how deeper OECD–LAC engagement can contribute to mutual prosperity, resilience, and global stability.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Politics, Economy, and OECD
Political Geography:: Latin America and Caribbean

31. The next decade of strategic competition: How the Pentagon can use special operations forces to better compete

Author:: Clementine G. Starling-Daniels and Theresa Luetkefend
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Strategic competition is likely to intensify over the next decade, increasing the demands on the United States to deter and defend against wide-ranging and simultaneous security challenges across multiple domains and regions worldwide. In that time frame, the Department of Defense (DOD) and the Joint Force should more effectively leverage the competencies of US Special Operations Forces (USSOF) to compete with US strategic adversaries. Three realities facing the DOD over the next decade lend themselves toward leveraging USSOF more in strategic competition. First, the growing need to counter globally active and increasingly cooperative aggressors, while the broader Joint Force remains focused on the Indo-Pacific and Europe, underscores the value of leveraging USSOF to manage competition in other regions. Second, the desire to avoid war and manage competition below the threshold of conflict aligns with USSOF’s expertise in the irregular aspects of competition. Third, unless defense spending and recruitment dramatically increase over the next decade, the Joint Force will likely have to manage more security challenges without a commensurate increase in force size and capabilities, which underscores the need for the DOD to maximize every tool at its disposal, including the use of USSOF to help manage strategic competition. The US government must harness all instruments of national power, alongside its network of allies and partners, to uphold international security, deter attacks, and counter efforts to undermine US security interests. Achieving this requires effectively integrating and leveraging the distinct roles of the DOD, interagency partners, the intelligence community (IC), and the Joint Force, including components like USSOF that have not been traditionally prioritized in strategic competition. For the past two decades, USSOF achieved critical operational successes during the Global War on Terror, primarily through counterterrorism and direct-action missions. However, peer and near-peer competition now demands a broader application of USSOF’s twelve core activities, with emphasis on seven: special reconnaissance, foreign internal defense, security force assistance, civil affairs operations, military information support operations, unconventional warfare, and direct action. Over the next decade, the DOD should emphasize USSOF’s return to its roots—the core competencies USSOF conducted and refined during the Cold War. USSOF’s unconventional warfare support of resistance groups in Europe; its support of covert intelligence operations in Eastern Europe, Asia, and Latin America; its evacuation missions of civilians in Africa; and its guerrilla and counterguerrilla operations helped combat Soviet influence operations worldwide. During that era, special operations became one of the US military’s key enablers to counter coercion below the threshold of armed conflict, and that is how USSOF should be applied in the next decade to help manage strategic competition. This report outlines five ways the Department of Defense should use Special Operations Forces over the next decade to support US efforts in strategic competition. USSOF should be leveraged to: Enhance the US government’s situational awareness of strategic competition dynamics globally. Entangle adversaries in competition to prevent escalation. Strengthen allied and partner resilience to support the US strategy of deterrence by denial. Support integration across domains for greater effect at the tactical edge Contribute to US information and decision advantage by leveraging USSOF’s role as a technological pathfinder. This report seeks to clarify USSOF’s role in strategic competition over the next decade, address gaps in understanding within the DOD and the broader national security community about USSOF’s competencies, and guide future resource and force development decisions. By prioritizing the above five functions, USSOF can bolster the US competitive edge and support the DOD’s management of challenges across diverse theaters and domains.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, National Security, Terrorism, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Middle East, Latin America, and United States of America

32. Trade with Colombia is big business for US exporters—amid growing Chinese influence in Latin America

Author:: Geoff Ramsey and Enrique Millán-Mejía
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Colombia and the United States have achieved a close, mutually beneficial partnership over several decades on migration, security, counternarcotics, and commerce—with the US trade surplus with Colombia totaling $1.3 billion in 2024. The Colombian market is particularly important for US agricultural producers. Thanks to the US-Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement (TPA), Colombia is the top destination for US agricultural exports in South America and the third main destination in the Western Hemisphere. The United States is still Colombia’s largest trading partner in South America—with $36.7 billion in two-way trade in 2024—but January data showed Chinese products leading over US imports for the month. The TPA promotes both reciprocal trade and US influence; interpretative improvements to previously agreed-upon matters are possible,
Topic:: Economy, Business, Tariffs, Exports, Trade, and International Markets
Political Geography:: China, Colombia, South America, Latin America, and United States of America

33. Human Rights Impact Assessment of Bolton Food’s Canned Tuna Supply Chain in Ecuador

Author:: Giorgia Ceccarelli
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: This paper presents the first of three Human Rights Impact Assessments (HRIAs) conducted by Oxfam on behalf of Bolton Food, focusing on its tuna supply chain in Ecuador between 2021 and 2022. The assessment evaluates both actual and potential human rights impacts at the production stage of the value chain. It seeks to identify the root causes of these risks and impacts and to provide actionable recommendations to Bolton Food and relevant stakeholders on how to address, mitigate, or remediate them. For the purposes of this assessment, the primary group of rights-holders identified includes male and female workers employed in canned tuna processing plants in Manta, as well as male workers aboard tuna fishing vessels operating in the Eastern Pacific Ocean.
Topic:: Supply Chains, Tuna, Due Diligence, and Living Wage
Political Geography:: Latin America, Central America, and Ecuador

34. Women Political Leaders as Agents of Environmental Change

Author:: Inés Berniell, Mariana Marchionni, Julian Pedrazzi, and Mariana Viollaz
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: This paper explores how female political leaders impact environmental outcomes and climate change policy actions using data from mixed-gender mayoral races in Brazil. Using a Regression Discontinuity design we find that, compared to male mayors, female mayors significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This effect is driven by a reduction in emissions intensity (CO2e/GDP) in the Land Use sector, without changes in municipal economic activity. Part of the reduction in emissions in the Land Use sector is attributable to a decline in deforestation. We examine potential mechanisms that could explain the positive environmental impact of narrowly electing a female mayor over a male counterpart and find that in Amazon municipalities, female elected mayors allocate more space to the environment in their government proposals and are more likely to invest in environmental initiatives. Differences in the enforcement of environmental regulations do not explain the results.
Topic:: Climate Change, Politics, Elections, Women, Leadership, and Gender
Political Geography:: Brazil, Latin America, and Amazon Basin

35. Slowing Down, Heating Up: Economic Deceleration and Social Discontent in Latin America

Author:: Iván Albina, Jessica Bracco, Leonardo Gasparini, and Luis Laguinge
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: There have been widespread public expressions of discontent throughout Latin America since the early 2010s. We exploit harmonized microdata from national household surveys covering nearly all Latin American countries to explore potential sources of discontent driven by income changes along the income distribution. We also estimate fixed-effects models that link discontent measures to changes in household incomes. Our results suggest that discontent may stem less from absolute economic performance during the 2010s than from the significant deceleration relative to the previous decade.
Topic:: Economics, Inequality, Income, Discontent, and Deceleration
Political Geography:: Latin America

36. Minimum Wages and Skill Premiums: Evidence for Latin America

Author:: Lucía Ramírez Leira, Octavio Bertín, and Leonardo Gasparini
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: This paper analyzes the effect of the minimum wage on skill premiums in Latin America over the period 1997–2019. The canonical labor market model is extended to include the role of the minimum wage, following the approach proposed by Vogel (2023). Skill premiums are estimated through Two-Way Fixed Effects (TWFE) regressions using harmonized household survey microdata from 14 Latin American countries. Results suggest that increases in the minimum wage are associated with reductions in the skill premium between workers with and without higher education, but do not appear to have a significant effect on the gap between workers with medium and low levels of education. The largest effect of the minimum wage is observed for workers with higher levels of labor market experience. These findings contribute to recent evidence highlighting the role of labor institutions as one of the main drivers of the reduction in inequality in Latin America since the early 2000s.
Topic:: Economics, Inequality, Skilled Labor, Minimum Wage, and Wages
Political Geography:: Latin America

37. Uncertainty in Caracas: What Awaits Venezuela's Maduro in his Third Term?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: On January 10, 2025, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was sworn in for a third six-year term. The opposition condemned this event as a "coup," accusing Maduro of election fraud in connection with the presidential elections held on July 28, 2024. In response, the government organized a rally in support of Maduro in the capital. Meanwhile, the opposition staged a protest led by Maria Corina Machado, who made her first public appearance since August 2024.
Topic:: Economics, Elections, Protests, Organized Crime, Social Unrest, and Nicolas Maduro
Political Geography:: South America, Latin America, and Venezuela

38. The Consolidation of Liberal Democracy in Brazil: Encountering Global, Regional, and Local Representations

Author:: Daniela Vieria Secches
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: The globally expanded international society established a standard of statehood as central criteria for its membership. The end of the Cold War witnessed an ascendant, albeit contested, liberal democracy as a preferred regime in global imaginaries. Within this context, the re-democratization processes experienced in Latin America amid profound international systemic reorientations implied the renegotiation of regional and local social imaginaries, as, for example, in the Brazilian case. In this article, we seek to discuss Brazil’s selective and creative adaptation in the space of overlaps between global, regional, and local social imaginaries about the government regime since the 1990s. Through a theoretical-empirical approach based on the discussion about the construction of shared understandings between international and domestic social spaces, we opted for a pragmatic theoretical foundation with the support of the English School of International Relations, critical philosophy, and the sociology of Bourdieu to study the Brazilian case. By focusing on the Fernando Henrique Cardoso government, it is proposed to qualitatively analyse documents from the period that problematize the country’s external insertion based on the interaction with the global and the regional social imaginaries about liberal democracy, with the support of a bibliographical review grounded on specialized secondary sources
Topic:: Democracy, Social Imaginary, Domestic Politics, and International Society
Political Geography:: Brazil, Latin America, and South America

39. ‘Maximum pressure’ sanctions on Venezuela help US adversaries, hurt Venezuelans

Author:: William Tobin
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The “maximum pressure” strategy employed from 2018 to 2022 against the illegitimate Nicolás Maduro regime in Venezuela did not serve US interests. Stringent oil sanctions imposed on Venezuela forced the retreat of Western oil firms from the country, principally benefitting adversaries. During the maximum pressure campaign, Venezuela’s oil production was rerouted to China at discounted prices, Iran supplied the diluent Venezuela required for oil production, and Russian investors became more critical amid a dearth on Western investment. A democratic transition remained elusive while repression and human rights violations continued. Venezuelans suffered, US adversaries expanded their influence, and Maduro remained. The current system of issuing specific licenses for Western oil producers to operate in Venezuela has yielded superior results. The benefits of this policy have been the following: Venezuelan oil exports have been diverted to friendly nations. Treasury has increased visibility on all oil-related transactions, decreasing the clandestine shipment of oil through shadow tanker fleets operated by the Chinese defense establishment, Iran, or PDVSA. Compensation to the regime is limited to taxes and royalties, which are required by Venezuelan law. The system has enabled the return or reemployment of qualified engineers and technicians to restore production from degraded oilfield infrastructure. The incoming US administration should prioritize inflicting more harm on the regime and its enablers than the Venezuelan people—or US interests. To do so, sanctions must be linked to clear objectives. An uncalibrated reapplication of maximum pressure would cede influence to China, Russia, and Iran, while doing little to loosen the regime’s grip on power. Instead, the existing system of specific licenses should be maintained and expanded. To punish Maduro, the administration should continue to target individuals who enable his illegitimate rule, adding to the 180 individuals already sanctioned by the Treasury. A targeted sanctions policy—not maximum pressure—is the only way to ensure that US actions to confront the Maduro regime impose their desired effect, and do not play into the hands of Beijing, Moscow, or Tehran.
Topic:: Markets, Governance, Sanctions, Geopolitics, Economy, and Energy
Political Geography:: South America, Latin America, Venezuela, and United States of America

40. Institutional Structures of Latin American Countries for Accession and Participation in the OECD

Author:: Lucas da Silva Tasquetto, Magali Favaretto Prieto Fernandes, and Milena da Fonseca Azevedo
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: This article delineates the institutional structures established by Mexico, Chile, Colombia, and Costa Rica to facilitate their accession to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The analysis delves into the political and economic contexts surrounding each country’s accession process, identifying key institutions and stakeholders domestic reforms required, and particular initiatives from each country, including institutional innovations and adapted procedures. Notably, each country exhibits unique institutional frameworks and adjustments, with varying prominence given to individuals and governmental entities based on constitutional, legal, and political-administrative configurations. We argue that, despite the uniqueness of each process, from an institutional standpoint, decisions concerning accession and the management of the process predominantly revolve around the Presidency and entities corresponding to the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, with variations in the preponderance of these bodies, and their leadership and coordination roles. Framing entry into the OECD primarily as a technical matter tends to justify the central role of the Ministries of Finance and affiliated bodies within the Presidency, aligned with the OECD’s liberal approach. Moreover, accession to the OECD often complements and/or legitimizes processes of trade openness and structural reforms, spurring consolidation of factions within domestic institutions.
Topic:: OECD, Institutions, Politics, and Economics
Political Geography:: Latin America, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, and Mexico

41. The geoeconomic turn in the Americas: The Dominican Republic at the centre of Washington’s return

Author:: Lauri Tähtinen
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: The tide is turning rapidly as the United States shifts its response to China’s industrial rise, with Washington returning to the Western Hemisphere in search of not only new trade relationships but also industrial, foreign, and security policies. This shift reflects a geoeconomic turn in the Americas, where economic actors – from drug cartels to critical supply-chain partners – are increasingly treated as security concerns, blurring the line between commerce and security. The Dominican Republic is positioning itself as a partner in both the joint development of the Americas and US security. Its growing alignment with the United States reflects global shifts elsewhere, such as in Finland’s relationship with Washington. The Dominican Republic’s sustained economic growth and its location between the US territory of Puerto Rico and the region’s security challenges place it at the centre of Washington’s attempt to re-engineer hemispheric value chains and security partnerships.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Economic Growth, Trade, Supply Chains, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:: Latin America, North America, and United States of America

42. Mexico and the Fourth Transformation

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: Since 2018, Mexico’s National Regeneration Movement (Morena) has sought to roll back neoliberalism and democratise the country. Though the ideological battle has advanced, economic transformation continues to lag behind.
Topic:: Democratization, Economy, Neoliberalism, Ideology, and Fourth Industrial Revolution
Political Geography:: Latin America and Mexico

43. The Joy of Reading

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: Reading and popular literacy programmes have played an important role in revolutionary processes, from the Mexican, Chinese, and Russian revolutions in the early twentieth century to today.
Topic:: Revolution, Literacy, and Reading
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Eurasia, Asia, Latin America, and Mexico

44. Paradise Lost? Ecuador’s Battle with Organised Crime

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: What’s new? Once one of South America’s safest countries, Ecuador has in under a decade become its most violent, transforming into a hub of the drug trade to Europe. President Daniel Noboa’s iron-fist approach brought murder rates down at first, but violence has since soared again and crime continues unabated. Why does it matter? Ecuador’s authorities have declared the country to be in the grip of internal armed conflict, deploying soldiers to prisons and crime-hit communities. With no sign of violence falling, the government is set to double down on its tough approach, expanding cooperation with the U.S. military and private security contractors. What should be done? Crackdowns send a strong message to communities and criminals alike, but alone they tend not to overwhelm drug markets. Ecuador should do more to bring state services and licit economic opportunities to crime-hit neighbourhoods while quelling the corruption in ports, prisons and the state that helps generate the crime wave.
Topic:: Corruption, Violence, Organized Crime, and Drug Trafficking
Political Geography:: South America, Latin America, and Ecuador

45. Feature Commentary: Confronting Cartels: Military Considerations South of the Border

Author:: Brian Michael Jenkins
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: Possible U.S. military action against Mexico’s drug cartels poses unique challenges. The situation is complicated, and the United States must be prepared for possible counteractions. The cartels are not a single actor. If attacked, they may avoid direct confrontation, accepting temporary losses, anticipating that the United States will not sustain a long campaign. Or Mexico’s cartels may respond violently, exploiting U.S. vulnerabilities in Mexico—and possibly north of the border. The government of Mexico is a separate actor. It can assist or undermine U.S. efforts. Past government campaigns against the cartels led to soaring rates of criminal violence. Chaos in Mexico could have serious implications for U.S. homeland security. The United States needs a ‘Red Team’ to examine a range of scenarios. The article proceeds in six parts: Part I contrasts recent U.S. military actions in Yemen and Iran with possible military action in Mexico. Part II examines perceptions of the threat. Part III examines how the history of U.S.-Mexico relations will shape the battlefield. Part IV reviews our own experience in combating foreign drug traffickers, offering some preliminary takeaways. Part V examines possible options. Part VI looks at how the cartels might react, how the United States might be forced to respond—and how other adversaries of the United States might attempt to exploit the situation.
Topic:: Counter-terrorism, Borders, Organized Crime, Cartels, and Military Operations
Political Geography:: Latin America, North America, Mexico, and United States of America

46. Beyond Exceptionalism: Costa Rica in Historical and Regional Context

Author:: Carlos Alvarado Quesada, Ariana Palomo, and Michelle Alas
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:: Carlos Alvarado Quesada served as the 48th President of the Republic of Costa Rica from May 2018 to May 2022, when his constitutionally limited term ended. Under President Alvarado’s leadership, Costa Rica contributed to global efforts to combat climate change and defended human rights, democ- racy, and multilateralism. President Alvarado is a recipient of the 2022 Planetary Leadership Award by the National Geographic Society for his outstanding commitment and action toward protecting the ocean and in September 2019 he received on behalf of his country the Champion on the Earth Award for policy leadership, presented by the United Nations Environment Program. President Alvarado’s prior government leadership service includes a tenure as Minister of Labor and Social Security (2016-2018) and as Minister of Human Development and Social Inclusion (2014–2016) and Executive President of the Joint Social Welfare Institute, responsible for implementing social protection and promoting poverty alleviation programs. Before entering politics, he worked for Procter and Gamble, Latin America.
Topic:: History, Multilateralism, Interview, Exceptionalism, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Latin America and Costa Rica

47. El estado de la Unión Europea 2025

Author:: Francisco Aldecoa, Carlos Carnero, Enrique Ayala, José Candela, and Björn Hacker
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:: Europa afronta en el segundo cuarto del siglo xxi una transformación profunda del orden geopolítico y geoeconómico. A la comunidad internacional nacida de la postguerra hace 80 años le sucede la pretensión de potencias como Estados Unidos, China y Rusia de acabar con la naturaleza multilateral de un orden global que tiene como símbolo las Naciones Unidas y las instituciones de Bretton Woods. Se trata de sustituirlo por un orden nacionalista, aislacionista y proteccionista. En este Informe se estudia la forma en la que la Unión Europea ha de abordar retos importantes relacionados con ese cambio del orden global, así como las políticas internas que competen a la Unión, entre ellas la triple transformación digital, ecológica y social.
Topic:: Nationalism, Science and Technology, European Union, Geopolitics, Inequality, Economy, Political Science, Protectionism, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Europe, Latin America, United States of America, and Sub-Saharan Africa

48. Latin America’s Role in De-Risking Semiconductor Supply Chains

Author:: Ryan C. Berg and Rubi Bledsoe
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: While the semiconductor supply chain currently spans several continents, China has made efforts to develop a self-sufficient semiconductor manufacturing ecosystem through industrial policies such as “Made in China 2025,” which presents a direct strategic and economic challenge to the United States. De-risking the semiconductor supply chain, particularly that of “legacy chips,” is of paramount importance, particularly at a time in which the Trump administration considers imposing additional sectoral tariffs on semiconductors. Latin America sits at the juncture of possibility and opportunity at a critical time for the expansion of semiconductor manufacturing, providing some of the key elements and capabilities that allow for semiconductor assembly, testing, and packaging as well as final integration into electronics. For companies relying on semiconductor manufacturing, diversifying production sources is key to reducing the risks associated with supply chain disruptions and great power competition.
Topic:: Manufacturing, Strategic Competition, Supply Chains, and Semiconductors
Political Geography:: Latin America

49. Key Considerations for Future Temporary Protection and Regularization Programs in Latin America

Author:: Diego Chaves-González and María Jesús Mora
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Migration has become an enduring reality in Latin America, reshaping societies and challenging traditional notions of borders and belonging. Faced with large-scale displacement from Venezuela over the past decade, countries across the region—many more used to emigration than immigration—have developed novel temporary protection and regularization programs. These have complemented or been offered instead of leveraging existing migration and asylum processes to manage arrivals. The temporary and ad hoc measures that have proliferated have offered countries flexible tools to rapidly respond to migration pressures, but their temporariness has over time created uncertainty for migrants and receiving communities alike. As countries across the region begin to think through their second-generation policy approaches, it is vital for policymakers to understand the trade-offs between different design elements. This report analyzes and compares different temporary protection and regularization initiatives, drawing examples from 11 countries/regions in and beyond Latin America (Brazil, Chile, Colombia, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, the European Union, Morocco, Peru, Spain, Turkey, and the United States). The report also offers recommendations for countries looking to move beyond temporary solutions to more durable, long-term policy frameworks, and in doing so, to avoid the pitfalls of partial immigrant integration and to more fully leverage migration’s potential benefits.
Topic:: Employment, Social Cohesion, Immigration Policy, and Temporary Protection Status (TPS)
Political Geography:: Latin America

50. Violence has gone down during Xiomara Castro’s term, but has security improved in Honduras?

Author:: Tiziano Breda
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: Armed violence has significantly decreased during President Xiomara Castro’s term so far, particularly in the country’s main cities that have long been plagued by gang violence. The measures adopted by the outgoing Castro administration do not fully explain the drop, which suggests it also responds to shifts in gang dynamics and tactics. Violence in rural areas, often linked to land disputes, has significantly increased in the Colón and Olancho departments. The expansion of coca crops in mostly rural departments hints at the diversification of drug trafficking groups’ activities and poses an added risk for rural security.
Topic:: Security, Domestic Politics, Violence, Rural, Organized Crime, and Gangs
Political Geography:: Latin America and Honduras

51. East Asian Cooperation Approaches Towards Latin America and the Caribbean

Author:: Carlos David Zavarce Velasquez
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: This paper analyzes and compares the development cooperation approaches promoted by Japan, China, and South Korea toward the Latin American and Caribbean region in the post 2015 period. The study applies the analytical frameworks of Lancaster (2007) — institutions, ideas, interests, and organizations — and Kragelund (2019) — vectors— relying on qualitative analysis of primary and secondary sources. The findings indicate that, while each country's cooperation approach has its own features — for instance, Japan and South Korea are OECD members, whereas China is a practitioner of South-South cooperation — all three prioritize financial cooperation over other forms of engagement.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, International Cooperation, and OECD
Political Geography:: East Asia, Asia, Latin America, and Caribbean

52. Navigating US-China technology competition among Middle Powers: study of Chilean response

Author:: Andrés Orlando Bórquez Basáez and Dorotea López Giral
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: Amid intensifying US–China rivalry over digital governance, middle powers like Chile face growing pressure to navigate an increasingly fragmented global order. This article examines Chile’s response through expert interviews and analysis of three key technology cases involving Chinese firms. The findings show that Chile has adopted a Hedging Strategy, limiting involvement in sensitive tech projects aligned with US security concerns, while continuing to attract Chinese investment in areas like electromobility and renewables. The study underscores the combined impact of geopolitical tensions, domestic bureaucratic constraints, and the challenges of engaging with China, whose growing presence still requires a process of mutual adaptation. These dynamics raise questions about Chile’s priorities and the limits of its autonomy in this complex context.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, Strategic Competition, and Middle Powers
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Latin America, North America, Chile, and United States of America

53. Impact of China–Latin America Transportation Infrastructure Cooperation on Latin American Economies: A Project Data Study (2009–2023)

Author:: Cao Ting
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: Since the beginning of the 21st century, China and Latin American countries have actively collaborated across various fields, including politics, economy, culture, and technology. Transportation infrastructure cooperation has emerged as a key aspect of this relationship. This article analyzes the characteristics of China–Latin America transportation infrastructure cooperation using project data from 2009 to 2023 and evaluates its effectiveness and future prospects. The findings indicate that this cooperation has yielded significant achievements; however, challenges remain in areas such as communication with indigenous communities and environmental protection. Moving forward, it is essential for China and Latin America to deepen their collaboration, prioritize quality projects through strategic planning, and promote the green development and digitalization of transportation infrastructure.
Topic:: Infrastructure, Transportation, Economic Integration, and Regional Economy
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Latin America

54. Divergent status-seeking in elite clubs: Brazil, China, and the BRICS expansion in Latin America

Author:: Luis Gouveia Junior
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: BRICS increased its geopolitical reach with a recent expansion. However, a divergent status-seeking, conceptualized as antagonistic strategies to gain status, emerged in BRICS during this process. While China defended the expansion, Brazil hesitated to accept it. Focusing on Latin America, where both seek to gain status, I analyzed how Brazil’s and China’s divergent status-seeking influenced the applications of Argentina, Bolivia, Cuba, and Venezuela for BRICS. I concluded that status-seeking motivations drove the candidacies of these states. However, Brazil served as a gatekeeper, potentially hardening the acceptance of Latin American countries in BRICS due to status calculations. Argentina’s entry was more acceptable for Brazil’s strategy to garner prestige than Venezuela’s. Meanwhile, China defended a broader expansion, supporting all four candidacies.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, BRICS, Regional Politics, and Status
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Brazil, South America, and Latin America

55. The illusion of criminal ‘order’: Institutional trust and municipal finances in Mexico

Author:: Ana I. López García, Seung-hun Lee, and Juan P. Figueroa Mansur
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Do criminal groups which help maintain order strengthen the fiscal contract or weaken it? This paper examines how the presence of organized-crime groups shapes Mexican municipalities’ ability to collect revenue, deliver public goods, and earn citizens’ trust. Survey data show that residents living in neighbourhoods home to organized crime report lower levels of trust in local government, regardless of whether those groups provide ‘order’ or engage in extortion and violence. Municipality-level data further reveal that both local revenue collection and public spending decline over time in areas with such a presence, independent of whether they are dominated by a single group (whereby crime syndicates’ provision of order is more likely) or see multiple organizations vie for supremacy (leading to extortion and violence being more commonplace). Evidence from Mexico suggests that criminal governance fractures the social contract locally: it erodes institutional trust, weakens municipalities’ fiscal capacity, and harms publicgood provision.
Topic:: Institutions, Organized Crime, Municipalities, Trust, Local Government, and Fiscal Capacity
Political Geography:: Latin America, North America, and Mexico

56. Brazil’s split worlds: Navigating between the Global South and the United States

Author:: Lauri Tahtinen
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: Brazilian foreign policy, traditionally nonpartisan, is increasingly shaped by domestic political divides, complicating alignment with global powers. This also fuels unpredictability, especially in relation to the United States. Brazil’s political right is looking to align with Washington in a bipolar world order, while its political left still seeks multipolarity through the Global South and with the help of the Global East. If, contrary to many expectations and current Brazilian policy, the world becomes bipolar, Brazil may be forced to pick sides, challenging its tradition of balanced diplomacy. If the world appears to be heading towards multipolarity, this would fulfil a long-held Brazilian foreign policy objective. However, Brazil faces regional dynamics that, perhaps paradoxically, resemble bipolarity, as South America remains only a secondary, or even tertiary, zone for great power competition. Hosting major forums like the G20, BRICS, and COP30 puts pressure on Brazil to deliver more consistent global messaging, limiting its room for strategic flexibility.
Topic:: Global South, Multipolarity, Strategic Autonomy, Great Powers, and Middle Powers
Political Geography:: Brazil, South America, Latin America, North America, and United States of America

57. Mexico Peace Index 2025

Author:: Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: This is the 12th edition of the Mexico Peace Index (MPI), produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP). It provides a comprehensive measure of peacefulness in Mexico, including trends, analysis, and estimates of the economic impact of violence. The MPI is based on the Global Peace Index, the world’s leading measure of global peacefulness, produced by IEP every year since 2007. The MPI consists of 12 sub-indicators aggregated into five major indicators. Mexico’s peacefulness improved by 0.7 percent in 2024. This was the fifth straight year of modest improvement, following four years of steep deteriorations. Last year, 18 states improved in their peace scores and 14 states deteriorated.
Topic:: Economy, Borders, Violence, Peace, and Organized Crime
Political Geography:: Latin America, North America, and Mexico

58. No GWOT-Narco

Author:: Daniel Depetris and Christopher McCallion
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: The violence perpetrated by Mexico’s drug cartels, their persistent export of drugs into the United States, and the massive toll of fentanyl overdose deaths have prompted the Trump administration to present U.S. military force as a possible solution. Any U.S. military incursion into Mexico will create more problems than it solves. It will disrupt the cartels for a time but drug smuggling will continue given demand and profits. U.S. military action could also raise the risk of the cartels retaliating against Americans inside Mexico and even inside the United States. The diplomatic repercussions would be significant as well: Mexico would view U.S. military force without its consent as an act of war. Various military solutions lack promise. A counterinsurgency operation will sink U.S. troops into a long-term campaign with no concrete end date. Targeting cartel kingpins is likely to splinter the cartels into smaller groups, not eliminate them. A plan to strengthen the presence of the Mexican military inside Mexico is also unlikely to work. There is no silver bullet to stop the cartels. While the United States can take some practical measures to weaken the cartels, like stemming the flow of firearms into Mexico, it can’t achieve much more than this and shouldn’t try.
Topic:: Narcotics Trafficking, Military Intervention, Violence, and Cartels
Political Geography:: Latin America, North America, and Mexico

59. Geographical Diversification of Vaccine Production: Challenges for Africa and Latin America

Author:: William Savedoff
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: frica and Latin America are the world regions most dependent on importing vaccines. Though they differ demographically, economically, politically, and historically, many of the issues they face when seeking to promote vaccine production are similar. In this regard, they have much to learn from each other in terms of options and strategies. After characterizing the relevant differences and similarities between the two regions, this paper argues that negotiating and implementing regional agreements is the most reliable way for each region to promote vaccine production compared to alternatives. It describes some of the more prominent regional vaccine initiatives that are underway and outlines options for governing such arrangements based on regional experiences inside and outside health. The paper argues that the most significant obstacle to promoting vaccine production is effective demand because most countries are too small on their own to support the scale required to motivate and sustain production. In addition, the prospects for regional or subregional agreements to assure producers that there will be sustained demand for their vaccines are unlikely due to the difficulties of establishing binding international pacts to pool purchasing in sufficient volumes. A second critical obstacle is an adequate number of individuals with the requisite skills for biomedical research, development, and manufacturing. Finally, without a high-quality and efficient regulatory systems, it is difficult for countries to assure vaccine quality, let alone attract private investors. The paper concludes by reviewing some common strategies for promoting vaccine production, including actions on the demand side, supply interventions, and institutional factors. It considers the advantages of regional agreements and discusses characteristics for such agreements that are important to their success.
Topic:: Diversification, Public Health, Vaccine, and Imports
Political Geography:: Africa and Latin America

60. Curbing Violence in Latin America’s Drug Trafficking Hotspots

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: What’s new? Violence stemming from the drug trade plagues Latin America, despite decades of law enforcement campaigns involving police and the military. Criminal groups have risen in number, spread to previously unaffected countries and diversified their rackets. Competition among these groups for drug profits drives much of the violence afflicting these societies. Why does it matter? The U.S. is again demanding military-led offensives against criminal groups in the region, yet evidence from past crackdowns suggests that they have served to reconfigure supply routes, spur more complex criminal networks, accelerate efforts to corrupt state officials and generate spikes of violence that harm the most vulnerable. What should be done? Latin America should learn from its successes and failures. Better policing, economic alternatives to crime, restrictions on gun flows and, under specific conditions, negotiations with illegal groups should all play a role. Foreign states should recognise that it is counterproductive to demand tougher controls when they worsen violence.
Topic:: War on Drugs, Social Policy, Violence, Police, and Drug Trafficking
Political Geography:: Colombia, Latin America, Honduras, Guatemala, and Ecuador

61. My Ambassador Was a Spy for Cuba

Author:: Melissa Clegg-Tripp
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: In 2001, I was on my third tour in the Foreign Service, excited to be serving for the first time as the “Information Officer” as it was then termed in La Paz, Bolivia. (The job title sounded fancier when translated into Spanish; I was the “Agregada de Prensa.”) Counternarcotics dominated the bilateral agenda because Bolivia, then the poorest country in Latin America, was a major producer of coca leaves, raw material for cocaine. The drug was trafficked to the United States and Europe and fueled addiction and violent crime. A big part of my job was to work with the Bolivian media to showcase US-Bolivian cooperation in eradicating coca and to profile the success of the “alternative development” programs the United States was funding. Those programs included health and educational assistance as well as support to farmers who elected to grow legal trade crops such as bananas and pineapples. It was a bit of a hard sell in that Bolivia, like other Andean countries, had a tradition of using coca leaves for medicinal, spiritual, and social purposes. Coca, a mild stimulant, also has nutritional value, helps with high altitude headaches, and is consumed either by way of chewing or by being made into a tea. Many Bolivians did not like the demonization of the leaf. Also, frankly, it was harder to grow bananas and pineapples. They took a long time to mature; they were susceptible to disease; they had to be carefully transported on bad roads to foreign markets. Furthermore, not many Bolivians seemed to be addicted to cocaine, and there was a sentiment out there that Bolivia produced cocaine only because “North Americans” wanted it, and the social ills accompanying the drug were really our problem, not theirs.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Memoir, Drugs, and Espionage
Political Geography:: Cuba, Latin America, and Bolivia

62. The Hegemonic Transition in Latin America: To What Extent is China Challenging US’s Hegemony?

Author:: Andoni Maiza-Larrarte and Ricardo Bustillo-Mesanza
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: In this paper, we examine the geopolitical consequences of China’s enhanced engagement in Latin America. China is increasing its economic weight among Latin American countries, reinforcing its external image to counter the perception that the US is a unique relevant ally. In previous research, some authors have supported the idea that China could become a sort of neocolonial power in Latin America, substituting the hegemony of the United States. In this article, we carry out an in-depth review of Western literature and a comprehensive analysis of the bilateral relationship to discuss China’s role in the region. We apply the principles of the hegemonic stability and the power transition theories, and we also include an assessment of “soft power” components. We conclude that China is eroding US power in Latin America but is still far from becoming the new regional hegemon.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Hegemony, Transition, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Latin America, and United States of America

63. Informe Iberoamérica 2025: IV Cumbre UE-CELAC en Colombia: retos y promesas

Author:: Maria Victoria Alvarez, Bruno Theodoro Luciano, César Niño, Vicente Palacio, and Lennys Rivera
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:: La IVª cumbre Unión Europea-CELAC, que tendrá lugar en Santa Marta (Colombia), los días 9 y 10 de noviembre de 2025, dará continuidad al diálogo político de alto nivel que se recuperó con motivo de la IIIª cumbre celebrada en 2023, y que dejó atrás unas relaciones interregionales paralizadas en esta escala durante más de un lustro. Transcurridos poco más de dos años, la cumbre de 2025 se producirá tras un intenso ciclo electoral tanto en América Latina como en la UE, y tras profundos cambios en el orden internacional que abren interrogantes en torno a las implicaciones que tendrá para las propias relaciones euro-latinoamericanas y caribeñas. Para alimentar los debates previos a este encuentro entre sesenta mandatarios de ambas orillas del Atlántico, el Informe Iberoamérica 2025 de Fundación Alternativas aborda, a lo largo de sus siete capítulos, distintos ángulos (medio ambiente, seguridad, inversión, comercio, cooperación, diálogo político) de una relación birregional de carácter estratégico llamada a relanzarse.
Topic:: Climate Change, Elections, European Union, and Political Science
Political Geography:: Colombia, Latin America, and Spain

64. Upwelling: Fishers Organizing for their Rights and Sustainable Fisheries

Author:: Judy Gearhart and Connor Moynihan
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Accountability Research Center (ARC), American University
Abstract:: Fishers face increased risks to their lives and livelihoods. Climate change and overfishing are sending fishers out to sea for longer periods of time or at distances beyond the capacity of their vessels. In response, fishers are pursuing new strategies to organize, build power, and defend their rights. This paper presents lessons from fisher organizing in diverse sectors. It aligns with the International Labour Organization (ILO) Convention 188 (C 188) on Work in Fishing, which defines fishers as all those working in marine capture, from artisanal fisherfolk to workers on the distant water fleet (DWF). The research reviews organizing trends in six countries and identifies common challenges and factors contributing to fisher organizing. In all six countries—Ecuador, Ghana, Indonesia, Mexico, Taiwan, and Thailand—new organizing initiatives have recently emerged. This research considers a range of dynamics that affect fisher organizing and their ability to access information, seek remedy, and influence policy outcomes. It provides insights from interviews with organizers and other fishery experts. The findings highlight areas where more work and strategizing are needed to build stronger and more influential fisher organizations.
Topic:: Climate Change, Sustainability, Labor Rights, and Fisheries
Political Geography:: Africa, Indonesia, Taiwan, Asia, Latin America, Mexico, Thailand, Ghana, and Ecuador

65. Ten Dimensions of Network Strengthening: Lessons from Health Rights Advocates in Guatemala, Mexico, and the Philippines

Author:: Julia Fischer-Mackey, Joy Aceron, Hilda Argüello Avendaño, Benilda Batzín, Francisco Gómez Guillén, and Rosaura Medina
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Accountability Research Center (ARC), American University
Abstract:: Maintaining and strengthening networks of volunteers is central to the health rights advocacy work of four civil society organizations (CSOs) in Guatemala, Mexico, and the Philippines who have worked through networks to improve reproductive, maternal, newborn, child, and adolescent healthcare (RMNCAH) services for marginalized communities. Their experience shows that networks of volunteers that represent marginalized populations and have the skills to engage with public authorities at different levels of government can confront the political and policy issues necessary to improve RMNCAH care. This Accountability Note captures the reflections of these CSOs on ten dimensions of network strengthening that they consider critical to their efforts to strengthen volunteer networks.
Topic:: Civil Society, Advocacy, Public Health, Marginalization, and Volunteers
Political Geography:: Asia, Philippines, Latin America, Mexico, and Guatemala

66. Mexico: A Pivotal State on the Global Stage

Author:: Ryan C. Berg, Rubi Biedsoe, and Michael Ferguson
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: In his 1867 Manifesto to the Nation, Benito Juárez famously stated: “Among individuals, as among nations, respect for the rights of others is peace.”1 Spoken by Mexico’s first indigenous president, Juárez’s quote demonstrates Mexico’s view of the global order—that countries should promote national sovereignty, security, and prosperity through collaboration and dialogue rather than through intervention. Mexico effectively operates with one foot in the door of the Global North, via its position in North America, and one foot in the door of the Global South, as one of the leading economies and cultural powerhouses of Latin America. This hybrid role, characterized by some as a “pivotal state,” has created both opportunities for leverage and areas of tension with other countries, particularly with regards to its close but complicated relationship with its northern neighbor.2 A key player and beneficiary of a global economy underpinned by a U.S.-led order, Mexico has found itself in a state of “autonomy within limits,” by which U.S. interests oftentimes circumscribe Mexico’s range of potential actions.3 Being the United States’ southern neighbor both grants Mexico unmatched economic benefits and presents it with a delicate balancing act: In pursuing autonomy within limits, Mexico must maximize its benefits from the Western-led order while asserting its sovereignty and reducing its dependence on the order’s biggest players, especially the United States. This tension influences Mexico’s policy positions as its presidents balance nationalistic rhetoric at home and trying to assuage U.S. concerns. Mexico’s balancing act also exacerbates divisions between the country’s pro–Global North elites and its disadvantaged populations who have not received the benefits of global economic integration, which has led to the success of the social welfare and populist-oriented Morena party. Mexico’s effort to maintain relations with its neighbor to the north consumes most of its foreign policy energy. But Mexico’s foreign policy DNA, often described as noninterventionism or the Estrada Doctrine (after Foreign Affairs Minister Genaro Estrada), can sometimes undercut its desire to play a leadership role on the global stage. Mexico firmly believes that nonintervention in the internal affairs of other countries can earn it a seat at the tables that matter, allowing it to negotiate or mediate conflicts. In practice, however, Mexico has demonstrated little global leadership of late, preferring to stay on the sidelines (and under President Lopez Obrador, to focus on his project of domestic transformation). Mexico’s ultimate goal is to exert full sovereignty over its domestic affairs; it has also used its political capital on the global stage to openly criticize the role of U.S. sanctions and containment policies against Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela for contributing the region’s security and migration crises. Further, Mexico does not see the world through the West’s post–Cold War lens, but rather as a group of politically equal states. China and Russia are treated as normal states in the international system the same way Algeria, Ethiopia, or Thailand might be.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Geopolitics, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: Latin America, North America, and Mexico

67. Academic Year 2025–26 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment

Author:: US Army War College
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Book
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: Maintaining strategic advantage demands professional discourse from across the force. The Academic Year 2025–26 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment provides a framework for those aspiring to tackle the Department of Defense’s most pressing challenges. This year’s authors highlight trending challenges and identify potential tension points across 15 sections organized into four enduring themes. This survey of regional, domestic, and institutional challenges represents the collective expertise of the US Army War College. The narrative is supplemented by a tailored list of 100 command-sponsored questions from 43 different Army and Joint organizations from across the Department of Defense. Combined, the distinct yet complementary narrative and question list offer unique insights into the vital matters impacting defense organizations and provide aspiring researchers with a necessary starting point.
Topic:: NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Natural Resources, Budget, Deterrence, Artificial Intelligence, Xi Jinping, Strategic Competition, Defense Spending, People's Liberation Army (PLA), and Strategic Security
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Eurasia, Ukraine, Middle East, Asia, Latin America, and Indo-Pacific

68. Faith and gender: Evidence-building for GBV prevention in Africa and Latin America. SVRI Community of Practice – Working Group 1 on Evidence-Building

Author:: Rafael Cazarin and Sinethemba Makanya
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Sexual Violence Research Initiative (SVRI)
Abstract:: The Working Group 1 on Evidence-Building was initially created in October 2024 by an executive research team: Rafael Cazarin, Sinethemba Makanya, Nobantu Shabangu and Leonardo Andrade. Led by the intention to build a Community of Practise that would speak back to the ideals of the Sexual Violence Research Initiative, the CoP was informed by the main goal to connect practise-based narrative evidence from experts to inform policies on gender-based violence (GBV) prevention with faith actors and religious communities in the Global South. In the months following the CoP inception about 150 members joined the Working Group 1 CoP on LinkedIn. Members from various organisations contributed to building empirical evidence for GBV prevention in faith and religion contexts through a series of monthly online activities, including roundtable discussions, focus groups, a virtual learning webinar and a special blog series for the SVRI blog page. This report presents key findings from five focus groups with members of Working Group 1 (WG1), focused on gender-based violence (GBV) prevention in faith-based and religious settings. The discussions pursued two main goals: first, to identify region-specific challenges and methodological gaps across the Global South, while also highlighting opportunities and sustainable practises at the intersection of faith and GBV prevention; and second, to explore critical themes—such as SOGIESC, youth and masculinities, and local cultural and religious dynamics—to support the development of more inclusive and context-sensitive policies and practises.
Topic:: Religion, Gender Based Violence, Sexual Violence, Faith, and Violence Prevention
Political Geography:: Africa and Latin America

69. Governance Compared: Autocracy and Democracy in Latin America

Author:: Sarah Yerkes, Natalie Triche, and Amr Hamzawy
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The past several years have witnessed a dramatic democratic decline around the world. In both established democracies and hybrid regimes, anti-democratic and populist forces have challenged the notion that democracies are better for their citizens.1 Leaving aside values-driven arguments, authoritarian and populist leaders have touted the narrative that they are better at delivering to their citizens’ needs than democratic leaders. They then use such arguments to justify rolling back the rule of law and eroding checks and balances where they exist, while preventing either from taking root where they are not already present.2 While this narrative may hold weight with some citizens, its legitimacy has not been tested.3 That is, we do not know who is better at governing—autocrats or democrats. Repression and chilling environments for free expression, often found in autocracies, contribute to a lack of critical appraisals of governance deliverables. Thus, comparisons with democratic societies that permit vocal disdain for governance performance can be difficult.4 Additionally, lack of free access to information and limited pluralist deliberations about government policy enable autocracies to mystify their governance performance and hide their failings, thus manipulating the constrained political discussions that do occur among citizens.5 To critically evaluate claims that autocratic states are better at governance than democratic states, especially in the Global South, we designed a project comparing governance outputs in four regions of the world: the Middle East and North Africa; eastern, western, and southern Africa; Southeast Asia; and Latin America. To examine the diversity of governance models and the variance in performance across these regions, we focus on four country case studies from each region. The cases represent both democratic and authoritarian governments, and vary in terms of governance performance—ranging from high to low—in economic, social, and political outputs. In this article, we evaluate the Latin American cases—Bolivia, Colombia, Cuba, and Uruguay—to test whether autocracies or democracies in the region are better at delivering on governance for their citizens. Ultimately, we argue that democracies in Latin America outperform autocracies on governance metrics. To assess how well countries in the Global South are delivering on governance outcomes, we defined four categories of governance indicators. The first includes socioeconomic indicators such as employment, poverty, income disparities, and access to services such as education, healthcare, and subsidies. An important aspect of this type of indicator is exclusion, meaning how access to services is distributed by gender, political group, social group, urban-rural location, and socioeconomic position. A second category describes another important aspect of governance: access to information. This includes variables such as transparency, academic freedom, arrests for free speech and political content, social media use by the public and elites, government internet filtering capacity and practice, government capacity to regulate online content, and government involvement in the dissemination of false information. A third category covers traditional political indicators including rule of law, separation of powers, checks and balances, and control of corruption. This also includes political equality measures like educational equality, health equality, and power distribution by gender, sexual orientation, social group, and socioeconomic position. The fourth category encompasses one of the more intangible aspects of governance—civil liberties, including access to justice, equality before the law, freedom of expression and association, freedom of domestic movement, freedom of foreign movement, freedom of religion, and property rights. In Latin America, we selected two more democratic governments that differ significantly in governance outcomes: Uruguay, which demonstrates high performance, and Colombia, which continues to face economic and social shortcomings and is confronted with political challenges that threaten social cohesion and democratic stability. We also selected two more autocratic governments: Bolivia, which exhibits relatively coherent economic and social performance (when compared to other authoritarian countries in the region), and Cuba, where governance crises are persistent and unresolved. In all four governance categories discussed in this article, both democracies project stronger performance than both autocracies. Importantly, many countries do not neatly fall into one regime type category. Rather, some of our cases (most notably Bolivia in the Latin American context) represent a hybrid model between democracy and autocracy. The 2025 elections in Bolivia are one example. The Movement for Socialism (MAS) candidate—whose party had held power in Bolivia for nearly twenty years—did not advance to the second round of the presidential elections, and the party lost almost all its seats in the legislature, but MAS made clear that it would accept the final election results. These four cases (Bolivia, Colombia, Cuba, and Uruguay) were selected for their individual characteristics as well as their applicability to the wider region. In addition to their different regime types and governance outcomes, we selected the cases to ensure variety. The cases span the region, with a Caribbean case (Cuba) and northern (Colombia), central (Bolivia), and southern (Uruguay) South American cases. They represent large and small countries, in both population and land mass. They include some of the wealthiest (Uruguay) and poorest (Bolivia) in the region. They represent countries that have been ravaged by civil conflict and weak institution-building processes, and those that have experienced a more peaceful history and built strong institutions. Furthermore, they are countries that are underrepresented in the literature.
Topic:: Governance, Reform, Democracy, Domestic Politics, Autocracy, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:: Colombia, Uruguay, Cuba, Latin America, and Bolivia

70. The Militarization of Commercial Activity in Mexico

Author:: Irene Wang
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: After building the Tren Maya, Mexico’s military has expanded its commercial reach in the Yucatán, with no regard for transparency or accountability.
Topic:: Accountability, Transparency, Militarization, and Commercialization
Political Geography:: Latin America and Mexico

71. Panama’s President Cracks Down on Unions

Author:: Corey Kane
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Amidst protests, President José Raúl Mulino holds firm to social security reform while suspending habeas corpus and attacking unions and striking workers.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Reform, Unions, and Social Security
Political Geography:: Latin America and Panama

72. Haiti’s Political Impasse

Author:: Greg Beckett
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Haiti’s current form of “checkpoint governance” represents a structural transformation in how politics works in the country.
Topic:: Security, Politics, and Governance
Political Geography:: Latin America, Caribbean, and Haiti

73. Boomerangs of Empire: Latin America as Colonial Laboratory

Author:: Romina Green Rioja and Sergio Beltrán-García
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: This special issue of the NACLA Report traces the returning and disseminating violence that is shaping the Americas today, from border militarization to algorithmic surveillance and the criminalization of dissent.
Topic:: Surveillance, Borders, Violence, Militarization, and Criminalization
Political Geography:: Latin America

74. Bolivia braces for tense elections as ruling party implodes

Author:: Tiziano Breda
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: “Instead of counting votes, they will count bodies.” This threat was made by Ruth Nina, head of Bolivia's National Action Party (Pan-Bol), if Evo Morales were not allowed to run as her party’s presidential candidate in the 17 August presidential elections.1 Morales has tried in multiple ways to evade a constitutional ban to run again, including using the Pan-Bol platform, but the Supreme Electoral Tribunal impeded this maneuver by revoking the party’s legal status in June.2 Nina's words — articulated at a gathering of supporters of the former president in Cochabamba on 12 July — were particularly shocking, as they came a few weeks after clashes between security forces and Morales supporters left four police officers and four demonstrators dead, as well as dozens injured. This was the latest and most violent episode of a struggle within the Movement for Socialism (MAS) party, which has dominated the country’s politics in the past two decades. The protagonists of this rift have been Morales, who founded the movement and led the country from 2006 to 2019, and his former finance minister, current President Luis Arce. This dispute has led to the implosion of the Movement for Socialism (MAS) party, contributed to aggravating an already complex economic situation, and risks sparking further unrest around an election that could be defined in a runoff on 19 October.
Topic:: Political Violence, Elections, Evo Morales, and Luis Arce
Political Geography:: Latin America and Bolivia

75. Balancing Borders: Trade, Security, and Migration in US-Mexico Relations Today

Author:: Diane E. Davis, Jorge Capetillo-Ponce, José Ignacio Hernández, Silvia Nuñez Garcia, and Chappell Lawson
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:: Balancing Borders: Trade, Security, and Migration in US-Mexico Relations Today: Thursday, October 9, 2025 A conversation on the challenges and opportunities at the intersection of trade, security, and migration. This conference is co-sponsored by MIT-Mexico, UNAM Boston and UMass Boston, and brought together scholars, policymakers, and practitioners to explore the evolving dynamics of the U.S.–Mexico relationship. Speakers: Diane E. Davis is the Charles Dyer Norton Professor of Regional Planning and Urbanism at Harvard’s Graduate School of Design (GSD) and Domain Head of the Publics Track in the Master of Design Studies Program. Trained as a sociologist, Davis’s research interests include urban governance, urban social movements, the politics of planning, and conflict in cities. Her books include Cities and Sovereignty: Identity Conflicts in the Urban Realm (Indiana University Press, 2011); Discipline and Development: Middle Classes and Prosperity in East Asia and Latin America (Cambridge University Press, 2004); Irregular Armed Forces and their Role in Politics and State Formation (Cambridge University Press, 2003); and Urban Leviathan: Mexico City in the Twentieth Century (Temple University Press 1994; Spanish translation 1999). Jorge Capetillo-Ponce is currently Associate Professor of Sociology and Latino Studies at University of Massachusetts Boston. From 2016 to 2022 he was editor of the Sociology of the Caribbean section for the Library of Congress. He also taught courses and gave lectures from 2002-2021 in the culture program at the Boston Graduate School of Psychoanalysis. Before he joined the faculty of Sociology at UMASS Boston in 2002, Professor Capetillo-Ponce worked as Executive Director of the Mexican Cultural Institute in New York City (2000-2001) as advisor to the Dean of the Graduate Faculty at The New School (1996-2000), and as consultant to Latino/a grassroots organizations in New York City (2000-2002) and Boston (2002-present). José Ignacio Hernández (Caracas, 1974), has a Law Degree from the Universidad Central de Venezuela, with a summa cum laude diploma (1997); an Advanced Study Certificate from the Universidad Complutense de Madrid (2001) and a Juris Doctor from the Universidad Complutense with a summa cum laude diploma (2002). He is Professor of Administrative Law at the Universidad Central de Venezuela and the Universidad Católica Andrés Bello, both in Venezuela. He also teaches Economic Constitutional Law in the Universidad Católica Andrés Bello. He has been professor of regulatory framework at the Instituto de Estudios Superiores de Administración (IESA), also in Venezuela. He is the Director of the Law Review of the Law Faculty of the Universidad Católica Andrés Bello. He has written more than 100 academic articles published in Venezuela, Colombia, Argentine, Chile, Mexico, US, Italy, Poland and Spain. He also has written 14 books. Silvia Nuñez Garcia is a researcher at Center for Research on North America, from Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, where she was director between 2009 and 2017. She also had the responsibility of directing the UNAM office in Los Angeles, California during 2021 and 2022. In 2019, the Government of Canada, through its Embassy in Mexico, awarded her the 'Canada-Mexico 75' recognition for her contribution to strengthening academic ties between the two nations. Throughout her career, she has been a visiting scholar at the Center for Latin American and Caribbean Studies at Michigan State University and other prestigious institutions such as Georgetown University and Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India. Likewise, she was distinguished as a Fellow of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars of the United States in 1999. Moderator: Chappell Lawson is an Associate Professor of Political Science at MIT. Professor Lawson's recent work has focused on homeland security policy, Mexican politics, the effect of candidates' physical appearance on their electoral success, and political leadership. From September 2009 through February 2011, Professor Lawson was on leave from MIT as a political appointee in the Obama Administration, serving as Executive Director and Senior Advisor to the Commissioner of U.S. Customs and Border Protection. Before joining the MIT faculty, he served briefly as a Director of Inter-American Affairs on the National Security Council staff during the Clinton Administration.
Topic:: Security, Migration, Bilateral Relations, Borders, and Trade
Political Geography:: Latin America, North America, Mexico, and United States of America

76. Between distrust and strategic opportunity: Chinese scholars discuss the U.S. impact in Sino-Latin American relations

Author:: Antonio José Pagán Sánchez
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: This study examines how academic publications in China have interpreted the U.S. impact on Sino-Latin American relations between 2009 and 2024. This period encompasses three different U.S. presidents: Barack Obama, Donald Trump (first presidency), and Joe Biden. The findings indicate that, strikingly, distrust toward the U.S. was already present well before U.S.-China tensions erupted during Trump’s presidency, and that publications consulted perceived this administration as a strategic opportunity for China to expand its presence in the region. Under Biden, distrust toward the United States remained, and his presidency was not seen as much of a strategic opportunity. The study also highlights the consistent recommendation among Chinese scholars for Beijing to adopt a conciliatory approach toward Washington.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Academia, Donald Trump, Rivalry, and Monroe Doctrine
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Latin America

77. Two US policy options for Venezuela: Shaping reform vs. ‘maximum pressure’ toward regime collapse

Author:: Venezuela Solutions Group
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The first Trump administration drafted a framework for encouraging a democratic transition in Venezuela; with a few updates, it represents one policy path the second Trump administration could take. Nicolas Maduro’s recent promotion of a longtime rival may be a sign of how few friends he has left, raising the possibility that he may be more susceptible to the second option: a “maximum pressure” campaign. Whether Washington opts for incentives or a hard line, the goal should be to keep presenting dilemmas that make a democratic transition more appealing than the status quo.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Oil, Politics, Sanctions, Reform, Geopolitics, Energy, and Democratic Transitions
Political Geography:: South America, Latin America, Venezuela, North America, and United States of America

78. Memo to Ursula von der Leyen and António Costa: Make the Right Priorities for the EU-CELAC Summit 2025

Author:: Renata Zilli
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: The EU–CELAC Summit in Santa Marta, Colombia, in November comes at a time when both regions need to get down to business. The EU-CELAC cooperation has long offered both sides opportunities to advance their economic and strategic interests, but so far, they have not used them. Past summits have rarely moved beyond lofty declarations and have not matched the level of expectations. Since the first Rio Summit in 1992,[1] successive joint meetings between the two regions have highlighted shared values and cooperation on democracy, economic development, and sustainability. Yet, two decades of summitry have not yielded the tangible progress that citizens and businesses expect. In a world of heightened geopolitical rivalry, technological disruption, and recurring supply shocks, Europe and Latin America should make a deeper investment in their relationship. For the European Union, reducing overdependence on a small number of suppliers has become a strategic priority. For Latin America and the Caribbean, diversifying trade and investment partners is essential to avoid being squeezed between the US and China in their strategic competition. A forward-looking agenda on trade and economic security can transform EU–CELAC relations into a strategic Atlantic partnership. This agenda should prioritise: Deepening EU-CELAC economic security cooperation to mitigate supply chain shocks and the weaponisation of economic dependencies through trade diversification. Promoting the integration of regional value chains by fostering diversified comparative advantages across CELAC countries, enabling each to specialise in different segments of production. Funding digital infrastructure: Utilise the EU-LAC Global Gateway Investment Agenda to plug investment gaps, specifically in digital transformation. Completing trade agreement implementation: Use the cooperation to propel the full implementation of Association and Trade Agreements between the EU and CELAC partners, and accelerate the ratification of signed agreements while pushing ongoing processes like the modernisation of agreements with Mexico Make the EU-CELAC cooperation a springboard for a “Coalition of the Willing” for a rules-based international trade. [1] The first high-level meeting between the European Community and Latin American and Caribbean countries took place in 1999, launching the EU–LAC Strategic Partnership. This dialogue evolved into the current EU–CELAC framework in 2013, when the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States became the EU’s formal counterpart, giving the relationship a more structured and political foundation
Topic:: Security, European Union, Economy, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe, Latin America, and Caribbean

79. Women, Motherhood, and Structural Transformation. Insights from Rural Latin America

Author:: Mariana Marchionni, Julián Pedrazzi, and Maria Florencia Pinto
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: Structural transformation—the shift from agriculture toward industry and services—is a defining feature of economic development, with the potential to reshape gender gaps in labor markets. Yet little is known about how this process has unfolded in rural Latin America, where women face a double disadvantage stemming from both gender and rurality. In this paper, we document the evolution of rural women’s labor market outcomes in 14 Latin American countries between 2000 and 2023, drawing on harmonized household surveys that provide comparable indicators across time and space. We complement this analysis with a pseudo-event study around the birth of the first child to estimate motherhood effects, and with time-use data from Mexico to explore household mechanisms that constrain women’s labor supply. Our results show that despite important educational progress, rural women continue to lag behind rural men and urban women in employment, hours worked, and earnings. Structural transformation has contributed to declining informality and rising participation in services and formal salaried jobs, but it has not closed rural-urban or gender gaps: unpaid family labor and other precarious forms of employment remain widespread. Motherhood further exacerbates these disadvantages. While rural mothers experience smaller short-term employment drops than urban mothers and show some recovery over time, they are increasingly pushed into unpaid work and low-skilled self-employment, reinforcing long-term income gaps. Evidence from Mexico suggests that this disadvantage is not primarily driven by childcare demands—similar across rural and urban mothers— but rather by heavier burdens of household chores, home production for own consumption, and lower access to labor-saving technologies. By providing the first systematic evidence on how structural transformation interacts with motherhood in rural Latin America, our paper makes two contributions. First, it fills a gap in the literature by offering a detailed, cross-country account of rural women’s labor market outcomes over two decades in a region where evidence has been scarce. Second, it brings together insights from the literature on structural change and child penalties, showing that structural transformation alone is insufficient to generate inclusive labor market opportunities for rural women when unpaid work and caregiving responsibilities remain unequally distributed.
Topic:: Children, Inequality, Rural, Gender, Structural Transformation, and Motherhood
Political Geography:: Latin America

80. The Potential Distributive Impact of AI-driven Labor Changes in Latin America

Author:: Matias Ciaschi, Guillermo Falcone, Santiago Garganta, Leonardo Gasparini, Octavio Bertín, and Lucía Ramírez-Leira
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: This paper investigates the potential distributional consequences of artificial intelligence (AI) adoption in Latin American labor markets. Using harmonized household survey data from 14 countries, we combine four recently developed AI occupational exposure indices—the AI Occupational Exposure Index (AIOE), the ComplementarityAdjusted AIOE (C-AIOE), the Generative AI Exposure Index (GBB), and the AIGenerated Occupational Exposure Index (GENOE)—to analyze patterns across countries and worker groups. We validate these measures by comparing task profiles between Latin America and high-income economies using PIAAC data, and develop a contextual adjustment that incorporates informality, wage structures, and union coverage. Finally, we simulate first-order impacts of AI-induced displacement on earnings, poverty, and inequality. The results show substantial heterogeneity, with higher levels of AI-related risk among women, younger, more educated, and formal workers. Indices that account for task complementarities show flatter gradients across the income and education distribution. Simulations suggest that displacement effects may lead to only moderate increases in inequality and poverty in the absence of mitigating policies.
Topic:: Artificial Intelligence, Labor Market, and Income Distribution
Political Geography:: Latin America

81. The Impact of Family Structure on Educational Attainment: An Analysis for Mexico Using EMOVI-2017

Author:: Martín Finkelstein
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: Using the 2017 Mexican Social Mobility Survey (ESRU-EMOVI 2017), this study documents how family structure during upbringing is a key determinant of educational results. Individuals raised in two-parent households attain between 0.25 and 0.38 more years of education and show, on average, a two to three percentage point higher probability of completing higher education than their peers raised without one of their parents at home. An analysis of why individuals drop out of the education system indicates that differences in educational attainment may stem from a lack of opportunities. The evidence points to parental death as a significant contributor to this gap. Individuals who lose a parent during their formative years complete, on average, between 0.9 and 1 fewer years of education and are 3 to 5 percentage points less likely to complete higher education. The timing of parental death is critical: experiencing the loss of a parent during adolescence (between ages 13 and 18) is particularly detrimental to the likelihood of achieving key educational milestones.
Topic:: Education, Inequality, Household, Social Mobility, and Family Structure
Political Geography:: Latin America and Mexico

82. Potential Escalations: Scenarios in the Peru-Mexico Diplomatic Crisis

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: In November 2025, Peru announced the severance of diplomatic relations with Mexico, marking a significant escalation in the ongoing crisis between these two Latin American nations. Peru justified this move by citing Mexico’s support for leftist politicians accused of orchestrating the attempted military coup of 2022, alongside Mexico’s decision to grant political asylum to former Peruvian Prime Minister Betssy Chávez. This development raises critical questions about the scope and consequences of Peru’s latest diplomatic escalation, as well as the broader implications for bilateral relations and regional dynamics in Latin America.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Political Crisis, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Latin America, Mexico, and Peru

83. Emerging Powers and the Future of American Statecraft

Author:: Christopher S. Chivvis and Beatrix Geaghan-Breiner
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The structure of international politics is changing in ways that are not fully appreciated in Washington. The United States has paid a great deal of attention to the rise of China in the last decade but much less to emerging powers whose rise will also shape the operating environment for American statecraft. No single emerging power will have an impact tantamount to China’s, but they will have a significant impact collectively due to their geopolitical weight and diplomatic aspirations. America has limited ability to influence the trajectory of these emerging powers, identified in this report as Argentina, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Thailand, and Türkiye. They have taken stances that contrast or directly clash with U.S. positions on China and on Russia over the past few years. Nearly all have voiced concerns about Washington’s approach to the war in Ukraine, even as they criticized Moscow’s invasion. Almost none would line up with the United States in a confrontation with China. Instead, they are likely to pursue highly self-interested foreign policies. Washington should expect that they will increasingly challenge some of its policies, sustain relationships with its adversaries, and press their own agendas on the global stage. The emerging powers’ statecrafts are shaped in large part by their drive for economic security. But their geographies, different preferences for world order, domestic politics, and defense relationships also play a role. Concerns about the strength of democracy in other countries, which has played an animating role in U.S. foreign policy for decades, are a lower priority for them, no matter how democratic they are. It will be a mistake for the United States to frame its relations with these emerging powers primarily as part of a competition for influence with China and Russia, however tempting it may be to do so. These powers are not swing states that will tilt decisively toward either side in a global great power competition. Most will resist any efforts to bring them into a U.S.-led camp as in the Cold War. Trying to make them do so would also risk strategic overreach by embroiling the United States too deeply in the emerging powers’ domestic politics or by expending its resources in pursuit of building ties that never materialize. A better approach for the United States would be to focus on negotiating interest-based deals with emerging powers while cordoning off areas of disagreement. These might include tailored market access and investment agreements, agreements on technology manufacturing, energy transition initiatives, efforts to combat deforestation, efforts to build public health infrastructure, and infrastructure investments. It would be wasteful of the United States to offer these countries security guarantees, but in some cases providing security assistance can serve its interests. Washington should accept that most of these countries will maintain close diplomatic, economic, and sometimes security relationships with China and probably Russia. Over the longer term, it will serve U.S. interests to strengthen the sovereignty of emerging powers when possible and cost-effective to do so. This will provide a bulwark against the undue expansion of China’s power and influence and help ensure that, even if they do not side with the United States, they are not drawn closely into the orbit of its major geopolitical competitors. Strengthening emerging powers’ sovereignty will also help boost their development as constructive powers with a stake in sustaining a peaceful world order conducive to global economic growth.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Sovereignty, Strategic Competition, and Emerging Powers
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, China, Middle East, Asia, Latin America, and United States of America

84. Crossing the Storm: EZLN Marks 30 Years with a 120-year Plan

Author:: Ann Louise Deslandes
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: The Zapatista liberation movement gathered in Chiapas to honor three decades of struggle and prepare for an uncertain future.
Topic:: Non State Actors, Political Movements, Post-Colonial, and Zapatista Army of National Liberation (EZLN)
Political Geography:: Latin America and Mexico

85. Latin America’s New Right Wings: Shifting Ideologies, Transnational Ties

Author:: Ernesto Bohoslavsky and Magdalena Broquetas
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: New far-right forces pose a growing threat to democracy across Latin America and the Caribbean. Read more in the Spring 2024 issue of the NACLA Report on the Americas.
Topic:: Climate Change, Democracy, Violence, Far Right, Right-Wing Politics, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Latin America and Caribbean

86. Honduras: A Narco-State Made in the United States

Author:: Laura Blume
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Although Juan Orlando Hernández was convicted of drug trafficking in a New York court, the United States has yet to own up to its role in fostering state-sponsored drug trafficking in Honduras.
Topic:: Conflict, Coup, Organized Crime, Drug Trafficking, and Narco-State
Political Geography:: Latin America, Honduras, and United States of America

87. Viva Palestina! NYC Student Encampments Spark National Rebellion

Author:: Mariana Navarrete Villegas
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Latinx students are standing with Palestine. For them, the occupation and oppression of Palestine are inseparable from the U.S.- and Israel-backed militarization of Latin America.
Topic:: Genocide, Occupation, Protests, Political Movements, Students, and Militarization
Political Geography:: New York, Palestine, Gaza, Latin America, North America, and United States of America

88. “Oil for the Few” at Brazil's Export Ports

Author:: César Rodríguez Garavito
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: For a small farmer in Rio de Janeiro state, a private port catering to the fossil fuel industry has brought a decade-long struggle to remain on the land.
Topic:: Oil, Exports, Fossil Fuels, Port, and Farming
Political Geography:: Brazil, Latin America, and Rio de Janeiro

89. A Strategic Cross-Border Labor Alliance

Author:: David Bacon
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: A relationship between a U.S. and a Mexican union, forged in the face of NAFTA, has borne fruit over decades of struggle. Two leaders reflect on the importance of international solidarity.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Solidarity, Alliance, NAFTA, and Unions
Political Geography:: Latin America, North America, Mexico, and United States of America

90. Is Hugo Chávez to Blame for Venezuela’s Collapse?

Author:: Gabriel Hetland
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: The country’s current economic and democratic crisis should not be used to erase Chávez’s impressive accomplishments in working to build 21st-century socialism.
Topic:: Socialism, Economic Crisis, Hugo Chavez, and Democratic Crisis
Political Geography:: South America, Latin America, and Venezuela

91. Dominican Republic’s Neofascist Paramilitaries Double Down on Right-Wing Repression

Author:: Amarilys Estrella
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: New expressions of ultranationalist violence censoring Black women and migrants harken back to the Trujillo dictatorship. Anyone deemed a threat to Dominican values is a potential target.
Topic:: Migration, Race, Violence, Radical Right, Paramilitary, Neofascism, and Ultranationalism
Political Geography:: Latin America and Dominican Republic

92. When the Earth Loses its Stewards

Author:: Alexia Gardner and Alex Reep
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: More than 1 million Colombians have been forced to flee their territories since the 2016 peace accords. As extractive industries and armed groups capitalize on displacement, biodiversity suffers.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, Armed Forces, Displacement, Biodiversity, and Extractive Industries
Political Geography:: Colombia, South America, and Latin America

93. Domestic regimes and national preferences as factors of regionalism’s crisis. The case of Guatemala’s regional integration policy

Author:: Francisco Santos-Carillo and Luis Andrés Padilla Vassaux
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: The article analyzes the influence of internal factors in the Central American integration crisis, based on Guatemalan politics and from a liberal intergovernmental approach. The results confirm the relationship between national preferences, some alignment with the preferences of partner states, and the results and effects of the process. For Guatemala, integration is an ideational commitment conditioned by the absence of negative externalities for the interests of governments and other key actors. National preferences limited the scope and determined the institutional design. The identity commitment and the creation of regional institutions seem to be insufficient for integration.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Government, Regional Integration, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: Latin America, Central America, and Guatemala

94. Regionalism and the Agenda 2030: Inequality and Decent Work in Mexico

Author:: Karina Lilia Pasquariello Mariano, Roberto Goulart Menezes, and Marcela Franzoni
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: The present study analyzes the limits of regionalism in achieving SDG 8, with a focus on the Mexican reality. It is based on the hypothesis that the role of the national government is decisive for incorporation of the Agenda 2030 in cases of regionalism based on an intergovernmental dynamic. We argue that NAFTA had a limited impact on improving working conditions in Mexico, as it only affected export-oriented regions and sectors. Since 2019 there has been an increase in the minimum wage, which can be explained not only by enforcing the USMCA, but also by a compatibility between internal and external agendas. Therefore, the case of Mexico allows us to affirm that the national government was decisive for the incorporation of the Agenda 2030 in the context of intergovernmental agreements.
Topic:: Inequality, NAFTA, Regionalism, Work, and Agenda 2030
Political Geography:: Latin America and Mexico

95. Regionalism Beyond Land Borders: Strengthening regional integration in Latin America and the Caribbean through blue economy policies

Author:: Thauan Santos and Charles S. Colgan
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: This article seeks to highlight the key role of the blue economy in fostering regional integration of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) based on the 2030 Agenda. By proposing a “beyond the boxes” approach, SDG 14 is not the only driver that stands out. Hence, we propose a regionalism beyond the state-centric and land borders, which will require reflecting on and rethinking theories, policies, and practices related to the foundations of regional integration, IR, and the 2030 Agenda itself. The methodology combines UN reports and data from ECLAC, WRI, FAO, UNEP-WCMC, UNESCOMAB, WWF, UN-DESA, and NOAA.
Topic:: Environment, Regional Integration, Oceans and Seas, Regionalism, and Blue Economy
Political Geography:: Latin America and Caribbean

96. Bottom-up regionality and the Sustainable Development Goals: civil society organizations shaping 2030 Agenda implementation in Latin America

Author:: Thiago Gehre Galvão, Mairon G. Bastos Lima, and Rodrigo Ramiro
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: Civil society organizations (CSOs) are shaping the formation of a bottom-up regionality in the context of the 2030 Agenda implementation. Using the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region as a case, this article unravels the pivotal role they play in the diffusion and incorporation of the Sustainable Development Goals. Drawing from qualitative content analysis of official documents, critical discourse analysis of primary and secondary sources, and semi-structured interviews, we understand CSOs as institutional entrepreneurs with specific motivations to engage and influence the regional governance process. While many challenges persist, civil society organizations are shaping 2030 Agenda implementation in LAC.
Topic:: Civil Society, Sustainable Development Goals, Regionalism, and Agenda 2030
Political Geography:: Brazil and Latin America

97. US Hegemony in Latin America: Think Tanks and the Formation of Consensus about the Chinese Presence

Author:: Luciana Wietchikoski and Livia Peres Milani
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: In recent years, U.S. government agencies have defined the Chinese presence in Latin America as a challenge, which has organized foreign policy towards the region. Departing from a neo-Gramscian approach, this paper investigates the bibliographical production of U.S. think tanks and seeks to understand the construction of consensus about the Chinese presence in Latin America. The methodology is based on content analysis and we identified two main narratives: in the first, the Chinese presence is presented as a threat to U.S. regional hegemony; in the second, the Chinese adaptation to liberal precepts is sought. There are therefore nuances in how the Chinese power is perceived, although the discourses remain restricted to the promotion of capitalism and neoliberalism under U.S. leadership.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Hegemony, and Think Tanks
Political Geography:: China, Latin America, North America, and United States of America

98. Regional Governance in Latin America: The More the Merrier?

Author:: Cristiane Lucena Carneiro
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: Latin America regional governance is characterized by institutional complexity, largely the consequence of overlapping membership and mandates. The dominant view that overlap in Latin American regional organizations is problematic warrants further investigation. This article explores instances of overlap and parallelism within Latin American regional governance institutions to argue that growing complexity may be associated with normative progress. The article offers a portrait of overlapping regionalism based on data from the Regional Organizations Competencies Dataset (ROCO). The analysis confirms: institutional overlap has increased since 1945; it identifies the critical junctures that catapulted this process which is loosely associated with normative progress.
Topic:: Governance, Institutions, International Order, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Latin America

99. Redefining US strategy with Latin America and the Caribbean for a new era

Author:: Jason Marczak, Maria Fernanda Bozmoski, and Matthew Kroenig
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The strategic interest of the United States and the countries of Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) lies in strengthening their western hemisphere partnership. Shared borders, economic interests, and security alliances bind these nations, along with a common goal for prosperity. However, the perception of waning US interest and the rise of external influences necessitate the rejuvenation of and renewed focus on this partnership. In May 2023, the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center and the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security established the US-LAC Future Strategy Working Group to redefine the US-LAC partnership. This strategy promotes mutual and inclusive economic growth, renewed cooperation through enhanced commercial and investment ties, a renewed paradigm on bolstering security and reducing migration flows across the region, and a focus on preparedness in the face of natural disasters and the energy transition. Acting on this strategy could significantly benefit US economic and security interests. The United States should capitalize on immediate opportunities, like promoting nearshoring as a means to growth and prosperity across the Americas, while maintaining a medium-term strategy tailored to each country’s specific needs. This strategy paper highlights the importance of adaptability and practicality, particularly as the global economic landscape evolves and power shifts foresee new leading economies by mid-century. In addition, the strategy advocates for the significance of the US-LAC relationship amid the recalibration of US worldwide interests.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Migration, Politics, Economy, and Energy
Political Geography:: Latin America, Caribbean, and United States of America

100. Not without her: A roadmap for gender equality and Caribbean prosperity

Author:: Wazim Mowla and Valentina Sader
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The Caribbean is one of the most vulnerable regions globally. It harbors economies that are open-faced and import-dependent, making it susceptible to the ravages of climate change, fluctuating commodity prices, and inflationary pressures. While governments and financial institutions grapple with these perpetual stresses, it is the Caribbean citizens, particularly women and girls, who bear the heaviest burden. Nestled in this uniquely vulnerable region, women and girls face a multitude of challenges, demanding comprehensive support from both governments and financial institutions to enhance their resilience and opportunities throughout society. Their integration across various sectors, including government, business, and local organizations, emphasizes that addressing gender challenges cannot occur in isolation. The global issues looming over the Caribbean magnify the specific hurdles confronting women and girls. From gender-based violence (GBV) and economic barriers to limited political influence and the disproportionate impacts of climate change, the challenges intertwine, creating a crisis of gender inequality and inequity across the Caribbean. This publication compiles findings from a yearlong consultative effort, revealing that the challenges faced by women and girls are rooted in societal perceptions of their roles and restricted access to tools and resources. To overcome these barriers, a fundamental reshaping of social norms, alongside political and financial institutions, is imperative. Moreover, integrating women and girls into the development model aligns with the region’s broader ambitions of achieving UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), unlocking untapped human capital and fostering long-term prosperity. In collaboration with the UN Women Caribbean Multi-Country Office, the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center and its Caribbean Initiative embarked on a year-long partnership. This initiative aimed to address GBV, economic empowerment challenges, limited political influence, and the disproportionate effects of climate change facing women and girls in the Caribbean. The extensive consultative process involved roundtable discussions, capacity-building sessions, and one-on-one consultations, shedding light on the preconceptions held by both men and women toward women and girls in Jamaica and Guyana during 2023. The partnership has honed in on social norms as a focal point, recognizing their impact on perceptions and discussions about the challenges faced by women and girls.
Topic:: Climate Change, Women, Inequality, Economy, Resilience, and Gender
Political Geography:: Latin America and Caribbean

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