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61. The Hegemonic Transition in Latin America: To What Extent is China Challenging US’s Hegemony?

Author:
Andoni Maiza-Larrarte and Ricardo Bustillo-Mesanza
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
In this paper, we examine the geopolitical consequences of China’s enhanced engagement in Latin America. China is increasing its economic weight among Latin American countries, reinforcing its external image to counter the perception that the US is a unique relevant ally. In previous research, some authors have supported the idea that China could become a sort of neocolonial power in Latin America, substituting the hegemony of the United States. In this article, we carry out an in-depth review of Western literature and a comprehensive analysis of the bilateral relationship to discuss China’s role in the region. We apply the principles of the hegemonic stability and the power transition theories, and we also include an assessment of “soft power” components. We conclude that China is eroding US power in Latin America but is still far from becoming the new regional hegemon.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Hegemony, Transition, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
China, Asia, Latin America, and United States of America

62. Informe Iberoamérica 2025: IV Cumbre UE-CELAC en Colombia: retos y promesas

Author:
Maria Victoria Alvarez, Bruno Theodoro Luciano, César Niño, Vicente Palacio, and Lennys Rivera
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:
La IVª cumbre Unión Europea-CELAC, que tendrá lugar en Santa Marta (Colombia), los días 9 y 10 de noviembre de 2025, dará continuidad al diálogo político de alto nivel que se recuperó con motivo de la IIIª cumbre celebrada en 2023, y que dejó atrás unas relaciones interregionales paralizadas en esta escala durante más de un lustro. Transcurridos poco más de dos años, la cumbre de 2025 se producirá tras un intenso ciclo electoral tanto en América Latina como en la UE, y tras profundos cambios en el orden internacional que abren interrogantes en torno a las implicaciones que tendrá para las propias relaciones euro-latinoamericanas y caribeñas. Para alimentar los debates previos a este encuentro entre sesenta mandatarios de ambas orillas del Atlántico, el Informe Iberoamérica 2025 de Fundación Alternativas aborda, a lo largo de sus siete capítulos, distintos ángulos (medio ambiente, seguridad, inversión, comercio, cooperación, diálogo político) de una relación birregional de carácter estratégico llamada a relanzarse.
Topic:
Climate Change, Elections, European Union, and Political Science
Political Geography:
Colombia, Latin America, and Spain

63. Upwelling: Fishers Organizing for their Rights and Sustainable Fisheries

Author:
Judy Gearhart and Connor Moynihan
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Accountability Research Center (ARC), American University
Abstract:
Fishers face increased risks to their lives and livelihoods. Climate change and overfishing are sending fishers out to sea for longer periods of time or at distances beyond the capacity of their vessels. In response, fishers are pursuing new strategies to organize, build power, and defend their rights. This paper presents lessons from fisher organizing in diverse sectors. It aligns with the International Labour Organization (ILO) Convention 188 (C 188) on Work in Fishing, which defines fishers as all those working in marine capture, from artisanal fisherfolk to workers on the distant water fleet (DWF). The research reviews organizing trends in six countries and identifies common challenges and factors contributing to fisher organizing. In all six countries—Ecuador, Ghana, Indonesia, Mexico, Taiwan, and Thailand—new organizing initiatives have recently emerged. This research considers a range of dynamics that affect fisher organizing and their ability to access information, seek remedy, and influence policy outcomes. It provides insights from interviews with organizers and other fishery experts. The findings highlight areas where more work and strategizing are needed to build stronger and more influential fisher organizations.
Topic:
Climate Change, Sustainability, Labor Rights, and Fisheries
Political Geography:
Africa, Indonesia, Taiwan, Asia, Latin America, Mexico, Thailand, Ghana, and Ecuador

64. Ten Dimensions of Network Strengthening: Lessons from Health Rights Advocates in Guatemala, Mexico, and the Philippines

Author:
Julia Fischer-Mackey, Joy Aceron, Hilda Argüello Avendaño, Benilda Batzín, Francisco Gómez Guillén, and Rosaura Medina
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Accountability Research Center (ARC), American University
Abstract:
Maintaining and strengthening networks of volunteers is central to the health rights advocacy work of four civil society organizations (CSOs) in Guatemala, Mexico, and the Philippines who have worked through networks to improve reproductive, maternal, newborn, child, and adolescent healthcare (RMNCAH) services for marginalized communities. Their experience shows that networks of volunteers that represent marginalized populations and have the skills to engage with public authorities at different levels of government can confront the political and policy issues necessary to improve RMNCAH care. This Accountability Note captures the reflections of these CSOs on ten dimensions of network strengthening that they consider critical to their efforts to strengthen volunteer networks.
Topic:
Civil Society, Advocacy, Public Health, Marginalization, and Volunteers
Political Geography:
Asia, Philippines, Latin America, Mexico, and Guatemala

65. Mexico: A Pivotal State on the Global Stage

Author:
Ryan C. Berg, Rubi Biedsoe, and Michael Ferguson
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
In his 1867 Manifesto to the Nation, Benito Juárez famously stated: “Among individuals, as among nations, respect for the rights of others is peace.”1 Spoken by Mexico’s first indigenous president, Juárez’s quote demonstrates Mexico’s view of the global order—that countries should promote national sovereignty, security, and prosperity through collaboration and dialogue rather than through intervention. Mexico effectively operates with one foot in the door of the Global North, via its position in North America, and one foot in the door of the Global South, as one of the leading economies and cultural powerhouses of Latin America. This hybrid role, characterized by some as a “pivotal state,” has created both opportunities for leverage and areas of tension with other countries, particularly with regards to its close but complicated relationship with its northern neighbor.2 A key player and beneficiary of a global economy underpinned by a U.S.-led order, Mexico has found itself in a state of “autonomy within limits,” by which U.S. interests oftentimes circumscribe Mexico’s range of potential actions.3 Being the United States’ southern neighbor both grants Mexico unmatched economic benefits and presents it with a delicate balancing act: In pursuing autonomy within limits, Mexico must maximize its benefits from the Western-led order while asserting its sovereignty and reducing its dependence on the order’s biggest players, especially the United States. This tension influences Mexico’s policy positions as its presidents balance nationalistic rhetoric at home and trying to assuage U.S. concerns. Mexico’s balancing act also exacerbates divisions between the country’s pro–Global North elites and its disadvantaged populations who have not received the benefits of global economic integration, which has led to the success of the social welfare and populist-oriented Morena party. Mexico’s effort to maintain relations with its neighbor to the north consumes most of its foreign policy energy. But Mexico’s foreign policy DNA, often described as noninterventionism or the Estrada Doctrine (after Foreign Affairs Minister Genaro Estrada), can sometimes undercut its desire to play a leadership role on the global stage. Mexico firmly believes that nonintervention in the internal affairs of other countries can earn it a seat at the tables that matter, allowing it to negotiate or mediate conflicts. In practice, however, Mexico has demonstrated little global leadership of late, preferring to stay on the sidelines (and under President Lopez Obrador, to focus on his project of domestic transformation). Mexico’s ultimate goal is to exert full sovereignty over its domestic affairs; it has also used its political capital on the global stage to openly criticize the role of U.S. sanctions and containment policies against Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela for contributing the region’s security and migration crises. Further, Mexico does not see the world through the West’s post–Cold War lens, but rather as a group of politically equal states. China and Russia are treated as normal states in the international system the same way Algeria, Ethiopia, or Thailand might be.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Geopolitics, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Latin America, North America, and Mexico

66. Academic Year 2025–26 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment

Author:
US Army War College
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
Maintaining strategic advantage demands professional discourse from across the force. The Academic Year 2025–26 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment provides a framework for those aspiring to tackle the Department of Defense’s most pressing challenges. This year’s authors highlight trending challenges and identify potential tension points across 15 sections organized into four enduring themes. This survey of regional, domestic, and institutional challenges represents the collective expertise of the US Army War College. The narrative is supplemented by a tailored list of 100 command-sponsored questions from 43 different Army and Joint organizations from across the Department of Defense. Combined, the distinct yet complementary narrative and question list offer unique insights into the vital matters impacting defense organizations and provide aspiring researchers with a necessary starting point.
Topic:
NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Natural Resources, Budget, Deterrence, Artificial Intelligence, Xi Jinping, Strategic Competition, Defense Spending, People's Liberation Army (PLA), and Strategic Security
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Eurasia, Ukraine, Middle East, Asia, Latin America, and Indo-Pacific

67. Faith and gender: Evidence-building for GBV prevention in Africa and Latin America. SVRI Community of Practice – Working Group 1 on Evidence-Building

Author:
Rafael Cazarin and Sinethemba Makanya
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Sexual Violence Research Initiative (SVRI)
Abstract:
The Working Group 1 on Evidence-Building was initially created in October 2024 by an executive research team: Rafael Cazarin, Sinethemba Makanya, Nobantu Shabangu and Leonardo Andrade. Led by the intention to build a Community of Practise that would speak back to the ideals of the Sexual Violence Research Initiative, the CoP was informed by the main goal to connect practise-based narrative evidence from experts to inform policies on gender-based violence (GBV) prevention with faith actors and religious communities in the Global South. In the months following the CoP inception about 150 members joined the Working Group 1 CoP on LinkedIn. Members from various organisations contributed to building empirical evidence for GBV prevention in faith and religion contexts through a series of monthly online activities, including roundtable discussions, focus groups, a virtual learning webinar and a special blog series for the SVRI blog page. This report presents key findings from five focus groups with members of Working Group 1 (WG1), focused on gender-based violence (GBV) prevention in faith-based and religious settings. The discussions pursued two main goals: first, to identify region-specific challenges and methodological gaps across the Global South, while also highlighting opportunities and sustainable practises at the intersection of faith and GBV prevention; and second, to explore critical themes—such as SOGIESC, youth and masculinities, and local cultural and religious dynamics—to support the development of more inclusive and context-sensitive policies and practises.
Topic:
Religion, Gender Based Violence, Sexual Violence, Faith, and Violence Prevention
Political Geography:
Africa and Latin America

68. Governance Compared: Autocracy and Democracy in Latin America

Author:
Sarah Yerkes, Natalie Triche, and Amr Hamzawy
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The past several years have witnessed a dramatic democratic decline around the world. In both established democracies and hybrid regimes, anti-democratic and populist forces have challenged the notion that democracies are better for their citizens.1 Leaving aside values-driven arguments, authoritarian and populist leaders have touted the narrative that they are better at delivering to their citizens’ needs than democratic leaders. They then use such arguments to justify rolling back the rule of law and eroding checks and balances where they exist, while preventing either from taking root where they are not already present.2 While this narrative may hold weight with some citizens, its legitimacy has not been tested.3 That is, we do not know who is better at governing—autocrats or democrats. Repression and chilling environments for free expression, often found in autocracies, contribute to a lack of critical appraisals of governance deliverables. Thus, comparisons with democratic societies that permit vocal disdain for governance performance can be difficult.4 Additionally, lack of free access to information and limited pluralist deliberations about government policy enable autocracies to mystify their governance performance and hide their failings, thus manipulating the constrained political discussions that do occur among citizens.5 To critically evaluate claims that autocratic states are better at governance than democratic states, especially in the Global South, we designed a project comparing governance outputs in four regions of the world: the Middle East and North Africa; eastern, western, and southern Africa; Southeast Asia; and Latin America. To examine the diversity of governance models and the variance in performance across these regions, we focus on four country case studies from each region. The cases represent both democratic and authoritarian governments, and vary in terms of governance performance—ranging from high to low—in economic, social, and political outputs. In this article, we evaluate the Latin American cases—Bolivia, Colombia, Cuba, and Uruguay—to test whether autocracies or democracies in the region are better at delivering on governance for their citizens. Ultimately, we argue that democracies in Latin America outperform autocracies on governance metrics. To assess how well countries in the Global South are delivering on governance outcomes, we defined four categories of governance indicators. The first includes socioeconomic indicators such as employment, poverty, income disparities, and access to services such as education, healthcare, and subsidies. An important aspect of this type of indicator is exclusion, meaning how access to services is distributed by gender, political group, social group, urban-rural location, and socioeconomic position. A second category describes another important aspect of governance: access to information. This includes variables such as transparency, academic freedom, arrests for free speech and political content, social media use by the public and elites, government internet filtering capacity and practice, government capacity to regulate online content, and government involvement in the dissemination of false information. A third category covers traditional political indicators including rule of law, separation of powers, checks and balances, and control of corruption. This also includes political equality measures like educational equality, health equality, and power distribution by gender, sexual orientation, social group, and socioeconomic position. The fourth category encompasses one of the more intangible aspects of governance—civil liberties, including access to justice, equality before the law, freedom of expression and association, freedom of domestic movement, freedom of foreign movement, freedom of religion, and property rights. In Latin America, we selected two more democratic governments that differ significantly in governance outcomes: Uruguay, which demonstrates high performance, and Colombia, which continues to face economic and social shortcomings and is confronted with political challenges that threaten social cohesion and democratic stability. We also selected two more autocratic governments: Bolivia, which exhibits relatively coherent economic and social performance (when compared to other authoritarian countries in the region), and Cuba, where governance crises are persistent and unresolved. In all four governance categories discussed in this article, both democracies project stronger performance than both autocracies. Importantly, many countries do not neatly fall into one regime type category. Rather, some of our cases (most notably Bolivia in the Latin American context) represent a hybrid model between democracy and autocracy. The 2025 elections in Bolivia are one example. The Movement for Socialism (MAS) candidate—whose party had held power in Bolivia for nearly twenty years—did not advance to the second round of the presidential elections, and the party lost almost all its seats in the legislature, but MAS made clear that it would accept the final election results. These four cases (Bolivia, Colombia, Cuba, and Uruguay) were selected for their individual characteristics as well as their applicability to the wider region. In addition to their different regime types and governance outcomes, we selected the cases to ensure variety. The cases span the region, with a Caribbean case (Cuba) and northern (Colombia), central (Bolivia), and southern (Uruguay) South American cases. They represent large and small countries, in both population and land mass. They include some of the wealthiest (Uruguay) and poorest (Bolivia) in the region. They represent countries that have been ravaged by civil conflict and weak institution-building processes, and those that have experienced a more peaceful history and built strong institutions. Furthermore, they are countries that are underrepresented in the literature.
Topic:
Governance, Reform, Democracy, Domestic Politics, Autocracy, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:
Colombia, Uruguay, Cuba, Latin America, and Bolivia

69. The Militarization of Commercial Activity in Mexico

Author:
Irene Wang
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
After building the Tren Maya, Mexico’s military has expanded its commercial reach in the Yucatán, with no regard for transparency or accountability.
Topic:
Accountability, Transparency, Militarization, and Commercialization
Political Geography:
Latin America and Mexico

70. Panama’s President Cracks Down on Unions

Author:
Corey Kane
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Amidst protests, President José Raúl Mulino holds firm to social security reform while suspending habeas corpus and attacking unions and striking workers.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Reform, Unions, and Social Security
Political Geography:
Latin America and Panama

71. Haiti’s Political Impasse

Author:
Greg Beckett
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Haiti’s current form of “checkpoint governance” represents a structural transformation in how politics works in the country.
Topic:
Security, Politics, and Governance
Political Geography:
Latin America, Caribbean, and Haiti

72. Boomerangs of Empire: Latin America as Colonial Laboratory

Author:
Romina Green Rioja and Sergio Beltrán-García
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
This special issue of the NACLA Report traces the returning and disseminating violence that is shaping the Americas today, from border militarization to algorithmic surveillance and the criminalization of dissent.
Topic:
Surveillance, Borders, Violence, Militarization, and Criminalization
Political Geography:
Latin America

73. Bolivia braces for tense elections as ruling party implodes

Author:
Tiziano Breda
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
“Instead of counting votes, they will count bodies.” This threat was made by Ruth Nina, head of Bolivia's National Action Party (Pan-Bol), if Evo Morales were not allowed to run as her party’s presidential candidate in the 17 August presidential elections.1 Morales has tried in multiple ways to evade a constitutional ban to run again, including using the Pan-Bol platform, but the Supreme Electoral Tribunal impeded this maneuver by revoking the party’s legal status in June.2 Nina's words — articulated at a gathering of supporters of the former president in Cochabamba on 12 July — were particularly shocking, as they came a few weeks after clashes between security forces and Morales supporters left four police officers and four demonstrators dead, as well as dozens injured. This was the latest and most violent episode of a struggle within the Movement for Socialism (MAS) party, which has dominated the country’s politics in the past two decades. The protagonists of this rift have been Morales, who founded the movement and led the country from 2006 to 2019, and his former finance minister, current President Luis Arce. This dispute has led to the implosion of the Movement for Socialism (MAS) party, contributed to aggravating an already complex economic situation, and risks sparking further unrest around an election that could be defined in a runoff on 19 October.
Topic:
Political Violence, Elections, Evo Morales, and Luis Arce
Political Geography:
Latin America and Bolivia

74. Balancing Borders: Trade, Security, and Migration in US-Mexico Relations Today

Author:
Diane E. Davis, Jorge Capetillo-Ponce, José Ignacio Hernández, Silvia Nuñez Garcia, and Chappell Lawson
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
Balancing Borders: Trade, Security, and Migration in US-Mexico Relations Today: Thursday, October 9, 2025 A conversation on the challenges and opportunities at the intersection of trade, security, and migration. This conference is co-sponsored by MIT-Mexico, UNAM Boston and UMass Boston, and brought together scholars, policymakers, and practitioners to explore the evolving dynamics of the U.S.–Mexico relationship. Speakers: Diane E. Davis is the Charles Dyer Norton Professor of Regional Planning and Urbanism at Harvard’s Graduate School of Design (GSD) and Domain Head of the Publics Track in the Master of Design Studies Program. Trained as a sociologist, Davis’s research interests include urban governance, urban social movements, the politics of planning, and conflict in cities. Her books include Cities and Sovereignty: Identity Conflicts in the Urban Realm (Indiana University Press, 2011); Discipline and Development: Middle Classes and Prosperity in East Asia and Latin America (Cambridge University Press, 2004); Irregular Armed Forces and their Role in Politics and State Formation (Cambridge University Press, 2003); and Urban Leviathan: Mexico City in the Twentieth Century (Temple University Press 1994; Spanish translation 1999). Jorge Capetillo-Ponce is currently Associate Professor of Sociology and Latino Studies at University of Massachusetts Boston. From 2016 to 2022 he was editor of the Sociology of the Caribbean section for the Library of Congress. He also taught courses and gave lectures from 2002-2021 in the culture program at the Boston Graduate School of Psychoanalysis. Before he joined the faculty of Sociology at UMASS Boston in 2002, Professor Capetillo-Ponce worked as Executive Director of the Mexican Cultural Institute in New York City (2000-2001) as advisor to the Dean of the Graduate Faculty at The New School (1996-2000), and as consultant to Latino/a grassroots organizations in New York City (2000-2002) and Boston (2002-present). José Ignacio Hernández (Caracas, 1974), has a Law Degree from the Universidad Central de Venezuela, with a summa cum laude diploma (1997); an Advanced Study Certificate from the Universidad Complutense de Madrid (2001) and a Juris Doctor from the Universidad Complutense with a summa cum laude diploma (2002). He is Professor of Administrative Law at the Universidad Central de Venezuela and the Universidad Católica Andrés Bello, both in Venezuela. He also teaches Economic Constitutional Law in the Universidad Católica Andrés Bello. He has been professor of regulatory framework at the Instituto de Estudios Superiores de Administración (IESA), also in Venezuela. He is the Director of the Law Review of the Law Faculty of the Universidad Católica Andrés Bello. He has written more than 100 academic articles published in Venezuela, Colombia, Argentine, Chile, Mexico, US, Italy, Poland and Spain. He also has written 14 books. Silvia Nuñez Garcia is a researcher at Center for Research on North America, from Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, where she was director between 2009 and 2017. She also had the responsibility of directing the UNAM office in Los Angeles, California during 2021 and 2022. In 2019, the Government of Canada, through its Embassy in Mexico, awarded her the 'Canada-Mexico 75' recognition for her contribution to strengthening academic ties between the two nations. Throughout her career, she has been a visiting scholar at the Center for Latin American and Caribbean Studies at Michigan State University and other prestigious institutions such as Georgetown University and Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India. Likewise, she was distinguished as a Fellow of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars of the United States in 1999. Moderator: Chappell Lawson is an Associate Professor of Political Science at MIT. Professor Lawson's recent work has focused on homeland security policy, Mexican politics, the effect of candidates' physical appearance on their electoral success, and political leadership. From September 2009 through February 2011, Professor Lawson was on leave from MIT as a political appointee in the Obama Administration, serving as Executive Director and Senior Advisor to the Commissioner of U.S. Customs and Border Protection. Before joining the MIT faculty, he served briefly as a Director of Inter-American Affairs on the National Security Council staff during the Clinton Administration.
Topic:
Security, Migration, Bilateral Relations, Borders, and Trade
Political Geography:
Latin America, North America, Mexico, and United States of America

75. Between distrust and strategic opportunity: Chinese scholars discuss the U.S. impact in Sino-Latin American relations

Author:
Antonio José Pagán Sánchez
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:
Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:
This study examines how academic publications in China have interpreted the U.S. impact on Sino-Latin American relations between 2009 and 2024. This period encompasses three different U.S. presidents: Barack Obama, Donald Trump (first presidency), and Joe Biden. The findings indicate that, strikingly, distrust toward the U.S. was already present well before U.S.-China tensions erupted during Trump’s presidency, and that publications consulted perceived this administration as a strategic opportunity for China to expand its presence in the region. Under Biden, distrust toward the United States remained, and his presidency was not seen as much of a strategic opportunity. The study also highlights the consistent recommendation among Chinese scholars for Beijing to adopt a conciliatory approach toward Washington.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Academia, Donald Trump, Rivalry, and Monroe Doctrine
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Latin America

76. Two US policy options for Venezuela: Shaping reform vs. ‘maximum pressure’ toward regime collapse

Author:
Venezuela Solutions Group
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The first Trump administration drafted a framework for encouraging a democratic transition in Venezuela; with a few updates, it represents one policy path the second Trump administration could take. Nicolas Maduro’s recent promotion of a longtime rival may be a sign of how few friends he has left, raising the possibility that he may be more susceptible to the second option: a “maximum pressure” campaign. Whether Washington opts for incentives or a hard line, the goal should be to keep presenting dilemmas that make a democratic transition more appealing than the status quo.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Oil, Politics, Sanctions, Reform, Geopolitics, Energy, and Democratic Transitions
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, Venezuela, North America, and United States of America

77. Memo to Ursula von der Leyen and António Costa: Make the Right Priorities for the EU-CELAC Summit 2025

Author:
Renata Zilli
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
The EU–CELAC Summit in Santa Marta, Colombia, in November comes at a time when both regions need to get down to business. The EU-CELAC cooperation has long offered both sides opportunities to advance their economic and strategic interests, but so far, they have not used them. Past summits have rarely moved beyond lofty declarations and have not matched the level of expectations. Since the first Rio Summit in 1992,[1] successive joint meetings between the two regions have highlighted shared values and cooperation on democracy, economic development, and sustainability. Yet, two decades of summitry have not yielded the tangible progress that citizens and businesses expect. In a world of heightened geopolitical rivalry, technological disruption, and recurring supply shocks, Europe and Latin America should make a deeper investment in their relationship. For the European Union, reducing overdependence on a small number of suppliers has become a strategic priority. For Latin America and the Caribbean, diversifying trade and investment partners is essential to avoid being squeezed between the US and China in their strategic competition. A forward-looking agenda on trade and economic security can transform EU–CELAC relations into a strategic Atlantic partnership. This agenda should prioritise: Deepening EU-CELAC economic security cooperation to mitigate supply chain shocks and the weaponisation of economic dependencies through trade diversification. Promoting the integration of regional value chains by fostering diversified comparative advantages across CELAC countries, enabling each to specialise in different segments of production. Funding digital infrastructure: Utilise the EU-LAC Global Gateway Investment Agenda to plug investment gaps, specifically in digital transformation. Completing trade agreement implementation: Use the cooperation to propel the full implementation of Association and Trade Agreements between the EU and CELAC partners, and accelerate the ratification of signed agreements while pushing ongoing processes like the modernisation of agreements with Mexico Make the EU-CELAC cooperation a springboard for a “Coalition of the Willing” for a rules-based international trade. [1] The first high-level meeting between the European Community and Latin American and Caribbean countries took place in 1999, launching the EU–LAC Strategic Partnership. This dialogue evolved into the current EU–CELAC framework in 2013, when the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States became the EU’s formal counterpart, giving the relationship a more structured and political foundation
Topic:
Security, European Union, Economy, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe, Latin America, and Caribbean

78. Women, Motherhood, and Structural Transformation. Insights from Rural Latin America

Author:
Mariana Marchionni, Julián Pedrazzi, and Maria Florencia Pinto
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
Structural transformation—the shift from agriculture toward industry and services—is a defining feature of economic development, with the potential to reshape gender gaps in labor markets. Yet little is known about how this process has unfolded in rural Latin America, where women face a double disadvantage stemming from both gender and rurality. In this paper, we document the evolution of rural women’s labor market outcomes in 14 Latin American countries between 2000 and 2023, drawing on harmonized household surveys that provide comparable indicators across time and space. We complement this analysis with a pseudo-event study around the birth of the first child to estimate motherhood effects, and with time-use data from Mexico to explore household mechanisms that constrain women’s labor supply. Our results show that despite important educational progress, rural women continue to lag behind rural men and urban women in employment, hours worked, and earnings. Structural transformation has contributed to declining informality and rising participation in services and formal salaried jobs, but it has not closed rural-urban or gender gaps: unpaid family labor and other precarious forms of employment remain widespread. Motherhood further exacerbates these disadvantages. While rural mothers experience smaller short-term employment drops than urban mothers and show some recovery over time, they are increasingly pushed into unpaid work and low-skilled self-employment, reinforcing long-term income gaps. Evidence from Mexico suggests that this disadvantage is not primarily driven by childcare demands—similar across rural and urban mothers— but rather by heavier burdens of household chores, home production for own consumption, and lower access to labor-saving technologies. By providing the first systematic evidence on how structural transformation interacts with motherhood in rural Latin America, our paper makes two contributions. First, it fills a gap in the literature by offering a detailed, cross-country account of rural women’s labor market outcomes over two decades in a region where evidence has been scarce. Second, it brings together insights from the literature on structural change and child penalties, showing that structural transformation alone is insufficient to generate inclusive labor market opportunities for rural women when unpaid work and caregiving responsibilities remain unequally distributed.
Topic:
Children, Inequality, Rural, Gender, Structural Transformation, and Motherhood
Political Geography:
Latin America

79. The Potential Distributive Impact of AI-driven Labor Changes in Latin America

Author:
Matias Ciaschi, Guillermo Falcone, Santiago Garganta, Leonardo Gasparini, Octavio Bertín, and Lucía Ramírez-Leira
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
This paper investigates the potential distributional consequences of artificial intelligence (AI) adoption in Latin American labor markets. Using harmonized household survey data from 14 countries, we combine four recently developed AI occupational exposure indices—the AI Occupational Exposure Index (AIOE), the ComplementarityAdjusted AIOE (C-AIOE), the Generative AI Exposure Index (GBB), and the AIGenerated Occupational Exposure Index (GENOE)—to analyze patterns across countries and worker groups. We validate these measures by comparing task profiles between Latin America and high-income economies using PIAAC data, and develop a contextual adjustment that incorporates informality, wage structures, and union coverage. Finally, we simulate first-order impacts of AI-induced displacement on earnings, poverty, and inequality. The results show substantial heterogeneity, with higher levels of AI-related risk among women, younger, more educated, and formal workers. Indices that account for task complementarities show flatter gradients across the income and education distribution. Simulations suggest that displacement effects may lead to only moderate increases in inequality and poverty in the absence of mitigating policies.
Topic:
Artificial Intelligence, Labor Market, and Income Distribution
Political Geography:
Latin America

80. The Impact of Family Structure on Educational Attainment: An Analysis for Mexico Using EMOVI-2017

Author:
Martín Finkelstein
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
Using the 2017 Mexican Social Mobility Survey (ESRU-EMOVI 2017), this study documents how family structure during upbringing is a key determinant of educational results. Individuals raised in two-parent households attain between 0.25 and 0.38 more years of education and show, on average, a two to three percentage point higher probability of completing higher education than their peers raised without one of their parents at home. An analysis of why individuals drop out of the education system indicates that differences in educational attainment may stem from a lack of opportunities. The evidence points to parental death as a significant contributor to this gap. Individuals who lose a parent during their formative years complete, on average, between 0.9 and 1 fewer years of education and are 3 to 5 percentage points less likely to complete higher education. The timing of parental death is critical: experiencing the loss of a parent during adolescence (between ages 13 and 18) is particularly detrimental to the likelihood of achieving key educational milestones.
Topic:
Education, Inequality, Household, Social Mobility, and Family Structure
Political Geography:
Latin America and Mexico