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2. Carving Status at Kŭmgangsan – A Book Talk by Maya Stiller
- Author:
- Maya Stiller and Seong Uk Kim
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
- Abstract:
- A 50-minute talk followed by Q and A with Maya Stiller, Associate Professor of Korean Art History & Visual Culture in the Art History Department at the University of Kansas, on Dr. Stiller’s recent book, "Carving Status at Kŭmgangsan," winner of the American Historical Association’s 2021 Patricia Buckley Ebrey Prize. Dr. Stiller’s book focuses particularly on elite graffiti in late Chosŏn Korea (17th to 19th centuries).
- Topic:
- History, Arts, and Graffiti
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Korea
3. The World After Taiwan’s Fall
- Author:
- David Santoro, Ralph Cossa, Ian Easton, Malcolm Davis, and Matake Kamiya
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- Let us start with our bottom line: a failure of the United States to come to Taiwan’s aid—politically, economically, and militarily—would devastate the Unites States’ credibility and defense commitments to its allies and partners, not just in Asia, but globally. If the United States tries but fails to prevent a Chinese takeover of Taiwan, the impact could be equally devastating unless there is a concentrated, coordinated U.S. attempt with likeminded allies and partners to halt further Chinese aggression and eventually roll back Beijing’s ill-gotten gains. This is not a hypothetical assessment. Taiwan has been increasingly under the threat of a military takeover by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and, even today, is under attack politically, economically, psychologically, and through so-called “gray zone” military actions short of actual combat. The U.S. government, U.S. allies, and others have begun to pay attention to this problem, yet to this day, they have not sufficiently appreciated the strategic implications that such a takeover would generate. To address this problem, the Pacific Forum has conducted a multi-authored study to raise awareness in Washington, key allied capitals, and beyond about the consequences of a Chinese victory in a war over Taiwan and, more importantly, to drive them to take appropriate action to prevent it. The study, which provides six national perspectives on this question (a U.S., Australian, Japanese, Korean, Indian, and European perspective) and fed its findings and recommendations into the second round of the DTRA SI-STT-sponsored (and Pacific Forum-run) Track 2 “U.S.-Taiwan Deterrence and Defense Dialogue,”[1] outlines these strategic implications in two alternative scenarios. In the first scenario, China attacks Taiwan and it falls with no outside assistance from the United States or others. In the other scenario, Taiwan falls to China despite outside assistance (i.e., “a too little, too late” scenario).
- Topic:
- Security, Conflict, Crisis Management, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Europe, India, Taiwan, Asia, Korea, and United States of America
4. Korean Newspapers, Korean Sovereignty over Dokdo and Ulleungdo, and Early Japanese Intrusions
- Author:
- Kyu-hyun Jo
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Journal of Korean Studies
- Institution:
- International Council on Korean Studies
- Abstract:
- Contrary to the Japanese Foreign Ministry's claim that Koreans never demonstrated any clear basis for its claims that it had taken effective control over Dokdo (Takeshima) before 1905, the Ministry ignores the critical role of the Korean media, especially major Korean newspapers such as the Hwangsŏng Newspaper and Dongnip Sinmun (Independent), in publicizing and mobilizing Korean nationalism through a sustained assertion of Korean sovereignty over Dokdo. By publishing articles which officially denounced Japanese intrusion into Dokdo or the Japanese government's feigned ignorance and disregard for such an act, or articles which explicitly discussed the long history of Korea's recognition of Dokdo and Ulleungdo as her nascent territories, Korean newspapers not only expressed Korean nationalism by incorporating anti-Japanese sentiment. They also emphasized Korea's ancient consciousness of national unity by clearly declaring that at the heart of such nationalism and rhetoric was a strong identification of Dokdo and Ulleungdo as Korea's historic territories. Korean newspapers were instrumental in publicizing Korean consciousness about Dokdo and Ulleungdo by not only reporting on Japanese intrusions into Dokdo, educating the Korean public on the ancient history of Dokdo and Ulleungdo, but also serve as crucial evidence proving that Japan willfully ignored Korea's national sovereignty and judicial authority to wrest away Korean sovereignty over Dokdo and Ulleungdo.
- Topic:
- Sovereignty, History, Newspapers, and Intrusion
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Asia, and Korea
5. Transitional Justice and Reconciliation in Asia: Lessons Learned from Korea, Sri Lanka, and Taiwan
- Author:
- Hun Joon Kim
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- In this issue briefing, Dr. Hun Joon Kim, professor of Political Science and International Relations at Korea University, provides an overview and analysis of the ADRN’s Working Paper Series on Transitional Justice and Reconciliation in Asia. He finds that in Sri Lanka, Korea, and Taiwan, past instances of human rights violations were complex and unique; perpetrators, international dynamics, and the inevitable “politicization” of justice efforts have each created unique obstacles to and nuances in the pursuit of justice. Kim argues, however, that a few conclusions can be drawn from the three cases: first, that the trend in Asia is towards justice and away from impunity; second, that the transitional justice process is gradual, winding, and cannot be solved in one fell swoop; and third, that transitional justice is not simply a state-led process-the pursuit of reconciliation involves the entire nation: government, civil society, and civilians.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Transitional Justice, Accountability, Reconciliation, and Reparations
- Political Geography:
- Taiwan, Asia, Sri Lanka, and Korea
6. Does Station Name Matter?: Rent Seeking Behavior and Its Impact on Housing Prices
- Author:
- Hwiwon Seo and Minsik Choi
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
- Abstract:
- The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of rent-seeking behavior for public goods on housing prices. To do so, we analyzed the case of renaming the Sinchoeon station to Jamsilsaenae station for the Seoul Metro Green line by applying the rent seeking theory and estimated the effect of the event on the housing prices of the affected neighborhood. The hedonic pricing model adopted by related studies does not produce unbiased estimates due to the endogeneity resulted from omitted variables including compounding macroeconomic variables. By developing a new dataset, we used the difference in differences regression method that produces more precise and unbiased estimates. Our results show that the housing prices affected by the renaming event increased by around 5% compared to those of non-affected neighborhood. Our analytical results can shed light on understanding related rent seeking behaviors for public goods provision.
- Topic:
- Economy, Macroeconomics, Housing, and Rent-seeking
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Korea
7. Next steps for the US-China strategic nuclear relationship
- Author:
- David Santoro, David C. Logan, Vahid Brown, Heather Williams, and Duyeon Kim
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- Conducted with the generous support of the Carnegie Corporation of New York, this study seeks to provide an in-depth analysis of strategic nuclear issues of significance to the bilateral relationship to pinpoint the challenges to, and opportunities for, improving the current state of affairs between Washington and Beijing. The study, in other words, aims to propose an assessment of key issues and, insofar as possible, solutions or mitigation measures to address US-China strategic nuclear problems, including those that are seemingly intractable. It is motivated by the idea that even (or perhaps especially) when stark pessimism dominates, it is essential to be clear about what is in “the realm of the possible” to improve the situation, and to act on it.
- Topic:
- Security, Nuclear Weapons, Bilateral Relations, Nonproliferation, Strategic Competition, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, Korea, and United States of America
8. Five Insights into the ‘Comfort Women’ Protest Movement in South Korea: 2018-2020
- Author:
- Jihyeon Won and Josh Satre
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- Protesters have been gathering in front of the former Japanese Embassy in Seoul, South Korea every Wednesday since January 1992. They call on the Japanese government to officially apologize to Korean victims who were coerced to render sexual services to Japanese military personnel before and during World War II (The Korean Council, 2021). The surviving victims and their supporters advocate for a just resolution to the sexual violence against ‘comfort women’ — those women forced to provide sexual services to Japanese officers and soldiers (Asian Women’s Fund, 2021). As one of the longest-running protest movements in South Korea, the ongoing demonstration movement has gathered broader support over time; has expanded geographically; and, despite obstacles, has continued to be a barometer for Japan-South Korea relations. This report examines five key elements of these demonstrations between January 2018 and December 2020, including the leading role of the Korean Council, the other main actors involved in the movement, the geographic spread of the demonstrations, increased counter-protests, and rising anti-Japan sentiment. As the issue of ‘comfort women’ remains unresolved despite nearly three decades of demonstrations, the movement is likely to persist due to broad support across Korean society, resilience in the face of counter-protest movements, and tense relations between Japan and South Korea.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Social Movement, Protests, and Comfort Women
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Asia, and Korea
9. Partnering for Africa’s digital future: Opportunities for the United States, South Korea, and India
- Author:
- Aleksandra Gadzala Tirziu
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Technological competition between the United States and China poses a special dilemma for African nations, whose prosperity depends on doing business with both Beijing and Washington. Although President Joe Biden is expected to assume a softer policy stance toward China—one couched in the language of human rights and liberal values, rather than power and strategic capabilities—competition will persist, driven by Beijing’s ambition to control the key technologies of the future. Rising US-China tensions may eventually force African nations to take sides. Speaking at the 2020 Munich Security Conference, then-US Defense Secretary Mark Esper warned allied nations that the use of Chinese company Huawei’s fifth-generation (5G) technology could compromise future intelligence cooperation with the United States. That’s a real problem for Africa because, together, Huawei and Chinese phone maker ZTE have built nearly 80 percent of Africa’s third-generation (3G) network infrastructure, while Huawei has built 70 percent of all fourth-generation (4G) networks and is competing to build all the future 5G networks in Africa. Chinese mobile-phone maker Transsion Holdings controls 64 percent of Africa’s feature phone market, and more than 40 percent of its smartphone market, and social media platforms such as TikTok and Vskit are fast becoming popular among Africa’s connected youth. For African leaders, disassociation from Beijing is becoming less and less feasible—or attractive. So too is closer alignment with the United States. Washington simply cannot match the large volumes of funding that Beijing extends to the continent. Recent conduct by leading US technology companies, including by Facebook and Google following the 2020 US presidential election, has additionally prompted a global pushback against US “big tech” that could make it harder for the US public and private sectors to compete and hold sway in African markets. Fortunately, there is a third way, both for African countries looking to avoid the crossfires of US-China competition, and for US policymakers seeking to bolster US competitiveness and influence in the region. The solution hinges on closer cooperation with emerging powers, notably South Korea and India, which have recently demonstrated their determination to better understand Africa’s challenges and prospects, and to figure out how their citizens could collaborate with African businesses and governments. For example, in his 2018 address to Uganda’s parliament, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi outlined “ten guiding principles for India-Africa engagement” that center on cooperation in digitalization, clean-energy technologies, and cybersecurity—a marked detour from the policies that have historically shaped India-Africa ties. South Korea-Africa relations under President Moon Jae-In have also entered a new phase, with an emphasis on commercial linkages and people-to-people collaboration. Both South Korea and India are rapidly expanding their technological capabilities, and their foreign policies also align well with US interests in the region, and vis-à-vis China. For Washington, cooperation with these emerging powers could keep the door open to US influence in Africa, and could help ensure that Beijing’s strategic foothold in the continent does not deepen. For African countries, such partnerships could help bypass the “either-or-ism” implicit in US-China competition, while encouraging greater diversity and agency in their foreign affairs. There is real opportunity for African states to realize the potential that such alliances could create, and to become significant multilateral actors, able to leverage their distinct assets and pursue their own interests. This report explores how.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Economy, Business, Space, and Innovation
- Political Geography:
- India, Korea, and Africa
10. The Special Role of US Nuclear Weapons
- Author:
- Matthew Kroenig
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- This issue brief is based on Dr. Matthew Kroenig’s written testimony at a hearing on “Nuclear Deterrence Policy and Strategy” before the Strategic Forces Subcommittee of the Armed Services Committee of the United States Senate, conducted on June 16, 2021. US nuclear weapons play a special role in underpinning international peace, global security, and the US-led, rules-based international system. The nuclear threat to the United States and its democratic allies is growing: nuclear-armed, revisionist, autocratic powers (Russia, China, and North Korea) are relying more on nuclear weapons in their strategies, and they are modernizing and expanding their arsenals. In this new issue brief, the Scowcroft Center’s Matthew Kroenig explains why the United States needs to retain a robust, flexible, and modernized nuclear force to meet its national security objectives.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology, Missile Defense, and Deterrence
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Iran, Asia, Korea, and United States of America
11. Nuclear priorities for the Biden administration
- Author:
- John Harvey and Robert Soofer
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- How can the administration of President Joseph R. Biden both address the deteriorating international security environment and follow through on campaign promises to reduce the role of nuclear weapons? Former nuclear deterrence policymakers John R. Harvey and Robert Soofer, from Democratic and Republican administrations, respectively, contend in this issue brief that the Biden administration can address the increasing nuclear threat to the United States, meet its commitment to reduce the role of nuclear weapons, and maintain bipartisan support for US nuclear policy.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology, Nonproliferation, Missile Defense, and Deterrence
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Iran, Asia, Korea, and United States of America
12. The Implications of Korea’s Experience Supporting Democracy as a Global Narrative
- Author:
- Taekyoon Kim
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- With many developing countries in need of help in settling democratization processes and systems, Korea is in a position to act as a bridge between developed and developing countries by sharing its knowledge and experience in democracy and political reform. Taekyoon Kim, a professor at Seoul National University, describes the main contents of Korea’s democratic aid, how to share the Korean democracy experience and the challenges and strategies for Korean democracy in the future. Through this, the author states that the direction of Korea’s democracy should move forward based on its experience and that Korea should use its democratic aid as an asset so that Korea can be recognized as a symbol of peace and democracy in East Asia.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, Reform, Democracy, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- South Korea and Korea
13. Limits of Public Diplomacy and Soft Power: Lessons from the THAAD Dispute for South Korea's Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Maximilian Ernst
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
- Abstract:
- This paper examines South Korea’s foreign policy towards China before, during, and after the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense dispute to investigate the limits of South Korea’s public diplomacy and soft power. South Korea’s official public diplomacy has the objective to “gain global support for Korea’s policies,” following Joseph Nye’s narrow definition of soft power. South Korea furthermore ranks high in the most relevant soft power indices. Based on the case of Chinese economic retaliation against South Korea in response to THAAD deployment, this paper argues that public diplomacy and soft power only work in the absence of traditional security contentions, but fail in the presence of such security contentions. The THAAD case also demonstrates the utility of traditional diplomacy, based on high-level summits and negotiations, to solve the very disputes that South Korea’s latent public diplomacy and soft power were unable to alleviate.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, and Weapons
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, South Korea, and Korea
14. Northeast Asia Defense Transparency Index 2020-21
- Author:
- M. Patrick Hulme and Tai Ming Cheung
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
- Abstract:
- Growing distrust in East Asia, especially in the security arena, is increasingly critical as new and long-standing hotspots— including the Taiwan strait, Korean peninsula, East China Sea, and South China Sea—become more volatile. The need for confidence-building measures is clear, and a central tool of confidence building is defense transparency. The Defense Transparency Index (DTI), a project of the University of California’s Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, ranks six countries on their efforts to promote transparency in defense and national security, including the People’s Republic of China, Japan, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), the Republic of Korea, and the major external powers most involved in the region—the United States and Russia.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Geopolitics, and Transparency
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Japan, Taiwan, East Asia, Asia, North Korea, Korea, East China, and United States of America
15. Developing Effective Benchmark-Based Allocation for Industrial Sectors: The Case of the Korean ETS
- Author:
- Dong-Hyeok Kwon and Alistair Ritchie
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Asia Society
- Abstract:
- Emissions trading systems (ETS) are increasingly being introduced as a way of cost-effectively reducing greenhouse gas emissions to meet ambitious national climate change targets, including Nationally Determined Contributions and net-zero long-term goals under the Paris Agreement. A key concern for governments and industry, however, is how to protect industry’s global competitiveness and prevent “carbon leakage”, that is, the transfer of production to world regions with less ambitious climate policies that would lead to an increase in total emissions. To address this concern, ETS allowances are typically allocated for free to greenhouse gas (GHG)-intensive or trade-intensive industries at risk of carbon leakage. The type of free allocation design is important because it directly impacts on the financial performance of companies. It also determines how companies are rewarded. Those that have invested more in GHG reduction technologies will be rewarded better under a benchmark (BM)-based allocation approach, where allocation is based on the level of production multiplied by an emissions intensity benchmark. Those that have invested less in such technologies will be rewarded better under a grandfathered approach, where allocation is based on historic emissions. However, while BM-based allocation is generally regarded as a fairer method, it is also considered more difficult to design and implement. This Asia Society Policy Institute issue paper, Developing Effective Benchmark-Based Allocation for Industrial Sectors: The Case of the Korean ETS, shows how BM-based allocation has been successfully implemented for some of Korea’s most important industrial sectors, steel and petrochemicals. It provides valuable insights and recommendations for other countries to develop an effective allocation system in a timely and efficient way.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Trade, Carbon Emissions, and Paris Agreement
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, and Korea
16. The New Southern Policy Plus: What’s New and What’s Next?
- Author:
- Moe Thuzar
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- Building on the New Southern Policy (NSP) implementation experience, and in recognition of the uneven impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on different populations in ASEAN, the ROK may consider the following operational dimensions of implementing the NSP Plus’ strategic thrusts. First, consultation of ASEAN’s collective and individual needs on each of the core strategy areas, leveraging on the ROK’s willingness to share and adapt its successful practices to meet the needs of its ASEAN partners. Second, synchronizing or aligning the NSP Plus’ regional thrusts with the ROK’s bilateral programs in the ASEAN countries, to ensure a seamless continuity of matching regional-level support with in-country requirements. Third, instituting a periodic or mid-term review mechanism for the NSP Plus implementation may help early identification of areas or priorities to adjust or revise, taking into account emerging needs and concerns. Ultimately, the ROK’s NSP niche will be the quality of its impact, in areas where the ROK’s strengths speak most to its “new southern neighbors.”
- Topic:
- Economy, ASEAN, and Regional Economy
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Korea
17. Field-by-Field Changes in China since Covid-19 and Implications for Korea
- Author:
- Jai Chul Heo
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- China has been able to escape from the Covid-19 outbreak relatively quickly compared to other countries. Nevertheless, it still remains greatly influenced by the Covid-19 pandemic across its politics, economy, society, culture, and other areas, which has led to various changes throughout China. Therefore, this study comprehensively examined the impact of the Covid-19 outbreak on various aspects of Chinese politics, economy, society, and culture. And in response to these changes in Chinese society, the study explores new strategies toward China in the post-Covid-19 era.
- Topic:
- Politics, Culture, Economy, COVID-19, and Society
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Korea
18. The Effects of Free Trade Agreements on SMEs’ Direct and Indirect Exports
- Author:
- Kyong Hyun Koo
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- FTAs have been known to have large positive effects on trade creation between member countries. However, it is relatively unexplored how much small/medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) accounted for in the trade creation due to FTAs compared to large-sized enterprises (LEs). We find that Korean FTA policies have significantly increased SMEs’ direct exports to FTA partner countries between 2005 and 2017, although the effects were as much as a half of those for LEs, which indicates a considerable LEs’ premium in the direct export effects of FTAs. We further find that the FTAs also significantly increased the indirect exports of Korean firms, i.e., the domestic input supplies through in-dustrial input-output linkage, and that SMEs have benefited more from the indirect export effects of FTAs than LEs. Considering the direct and indirect export effects together, the LEs’ premium in the total export effects of FTA is found to become smaller.
- Topic:
- Treaties and Agreements, Economy, Free Trade, Exports, Trade, and Industry
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Korea
19. The Determinants and Welfare Implications of Labor Share
- Author:
- Sungbae An, Minsoo Han, Subin Kim, and Jinhee Lee
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- The decline in labor share is recognized as a global phenomenon. Concerns have been raised that this trend will exacerbate the income inequality between business owners as capitalists and households as the labor suppliers, prompting a decline in household income and consumption, which are major driving forces for sustainable growth. Meanwhile, various policy measures have been introduced to raise the labor share, with the aim of correcting inequality and boosting growth. This study explores the determinants of labor share and analyzes the effects of these factors on the economy and social welfare, offering various interpretations and policy alternatives according to economic conditions.
- Topic:
- Labor Issues, Inequality, Economy, Business, and Welfare
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Korea
20. What’s in the New Southern Policy Plus? An ASEAN Perspective on Building Niche-based Pragmatic Cooperation with South Korea
- Author:
- Chiew-Ping Hoo
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- It is clear that the NSP started off with the right messages and many Southeast Asian countries have been receptive to the initiatives. Despite the pandemic bringing a lot more challenges in implementing the policy initiatives, the NSP Plus has envisioned an innovation-oriented cooperation by transforming the traditional face-to-face operations to electronic and digitalized management. Public health cooperation is understandably the immediate focus, but such cooperation should be also seen as long-term fulfilment of the cooperation on the People pillar in the NSP. Infrastructure connectivity and South Korea’s cooperation in the building of an evolving East Asian regional architecture respectively enhance the Prosperity and Peace pillars. With patience, dedication, and commitment, the NSP Plus will be a long-lasting foreign policy legacy of Moon that brings benefits to Korea, ASEAN, and regional stability.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, Political stability, Public Health, and ASEAN
- Political Geography:
- Asia, Korea, and Southeast Asia
21. Twenty Years of One Country Two Systems in China: Evaluation and Future Prospects
- Author:
- Jai Chul Heo
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- This study evaluated China's model of “One Country, Two Systems” (一國兩制) 20 years into operation and the bilateral relationship between Taiwan and Mainland China ‒ focusing on Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan ‒ and examined future prospects. The study is meaningful in that it conducts a more objective evaluation than the previous studies by empirically analyzing data accumulated over the past 20 years of implementation of the One Country Two Systems principle from various perspectives. In addition, it is also a timely study in that it analyzes how the One Country Two Systems arrangement is likely to develop in the future, and what impact this would have, making considerations for changes in China's national strategy during the Xi Jinping period and the competition for hegemony between the U.S. and China. The results of the analysis indicate that over the past 20 years China has been experimenting with the possibility of coexisting different systems in one country, and that the One Country Two Systems arrangement, as a new form of unification which has never been attempted in the history of mankind, has actually shown the possibility of success. However, in recent years, various political contradictions have been exposed in the process of implementing the arrangement, mostly in the Hong Kong society, and the resulting conflict has gradually intensified. While maintaining the current capitalist system for 50 years, Macau is expected to gradually progress in its “Sinicization,” with continuing active economic and social exchanges and cooperation with mainland China. As a result, Macau is expected to be fully incorporated into China's socialist system in 2049, 50 years after the return, but it is likely to remain a city of special character considering Macau's region and its economic structure. On the other hand, the One Country Two Systems arrangement with Hong Kong is expected to undergo a difficult process in the future. In the midst of various conflicts surrounding Hong Kong, the guarantee for Hong Kong’s autonomy is expected to end in 2047 amid efforts on the part of the mainland government to sinicize Hong Kong. And China wants to apply the philosophy of “One Country, Two Systems” to its reunification with Taiwan as well, but in reality this remains very low in possibility.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, Bilateral Relations, Hegemony, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, Asia, Korea, Hong Kong, and Macau
22. Labor Market Impact of Immigration in the European Union
- Author:
- Dong-Hee Joe
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- Immigration is one of the factors often considered as the causes of Brexit. Researchers find evidences that regions with more immigrants from the new member states of the European Union (EU hereinafter) in eastern Europe tended to vote more in favor of Brexit in the 2016 referendum. Similar relations between the size of immigrant population and anti-immigration attitudes or far-right voting are found in other richer EU member states. A common explanation for this relation is the concern that immigrants negatively affect the outcome in the host labor market. Immigration is drawing attention in Korea too. Although immigrants' share in population is still substantially smaller in Korea than in the EU, its increase is noticeable. Also, certain industries in Korea are known to be already heavily reliant on immigrant labor. Recently, as entry into the country was tightened due to the COVID-19 pandemic, firms and farms are reported to have faced a disruption in production. This trend of increasing presence of immigrants in population and in the labor market, vis-à-vis the low fertility rate and rapid aging in Korea, is raising interest and concern on the socioeconomic impact of immigration. To offer some reference for the debates related to immigration in Korea, KIEP researchers (Joe et al. 2020 and Joe and Moon 2021) look at the EU, where immigrants' presence was much higher from much earlier on, and where the greater heterogeneity among the immigrants allows for richer analyses. This World Economy Brief presents some of their findings that are salient for Korea.
- Topic:
- Immigration, European Union, Brexit, and Labor Market
- Political Geography:
- Britain, Europe, Asia, and Korea
23. China’s FDI in Europe and Europe’s Policy Response
- Author:
- Pyoung Seob Yang, Cheol-Won Lee, Suyeob Na, Taehyn Oh, Young Sun Kim, Hyung Jun Yoon, and Yoo-Duk Ga
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- China’s investment in the European Union (EU) increased significantly during the European financial crisis, but has been on the decline in recent years. The surge of Chinese investment has raised concerns and demands for analysis on the negative effects it could have on the EU companies and industries. In this context, the present study aims to analyze the main characteristics of Chinese investment and M&A in Europe, major policy issues between the two sides, the EU’s policy responses, and prospects of Chinese future investment in Eu-rope, going on to draw important lessons for Korea. To summarize the main characteristics of China's investment in Europe, the study found that the EU's share of China's overseas direct investment has continued to increase until recently. Second, investment in the Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) is gradually increasing, although it is still insignificant compared to the top five destinations in the EU: Netherlands, Sweden, Germany, Luxembourg and France. Third, China's investment in the EU is being made in pursuit of innovation in manufacturing and to acquire high-tech technologies. When it comes to China's M&A in Europe, the study found that the proportion of indirect China's M&As (via third countries (e.g. Hong Kong) or Chinese subsidiaries already established in Europe) was relatively higher than direct ones. Empirical factor analysis of investment also shows that China's investment in the EU is strongly motivated by the pursuit of strategic assets. Other factors such as institutional-level and regulatory variables are found to have no significant impact, or have an effect contrary to expectations. This suggests that China's investment in the EU is based on the Chinese government's growth strategy, and accompanies an element of national capitalism Today, It is highly expected that the COVID-19 pandemic will have a reorganizing effect on the global value chain (GVC) and Foreign investment regulation in the high-tech sector motivated by national security is emerging as a global issue as the US and the EU are tightening their control. As Korean companies are not free from the risk of falling under such regulations, a thorough and careful response is required. And for the Korean government, it is necessary to prepare legal and institutional measures regulating foreign investment in reference to the US and the EU.
- Topic:
- Foreign Direct Investment, Financial Crisis, European Union, Economy, Economic Growth, Global Value Chains, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Asia, Korea, and United States of America
24. Changing Environment for Opening of Chinese Financial Sector and Implications
- Author:
- Sangbaek Hyun, Suyeob Na, Young Sun Kim, Koun Cho, and Bongkyo Seo
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- The opening of China's financial sector has progressed at a very slow pace, unlike the manufacturing and trade sectors that have pushed for an active opening to the outside world. The Chinese economy has been growing rapidly while serving as a global production base, but since 2012, it has become necessary to modify its approaches to achieve growth as it enters an era of medium-speed growth. Recently, new reform and opening measures have been taken in various fields to improve the quality of the Chinese economy, and the need for reform and opening in the financial sector has also increased. Internally, the financial system centered on China's state-owned commercial banks has focused on indirect financing, which has served as a major obstacle to upgrading China's economy and industry to the next level, further increasing the need for reform and opening of the financial sector. Moreover, externally, the U.S.-China conflict which began in earnest in 2018, is applying strong pressure toward reform and opening in China’s financial sector. The Chinese government began to show a proactive attitude toward financial opening amid such internal needs and external pressure, and an important development was seen in China’s financial opening when President Xi Jinping declared further opening measures at the Boao Forum in April 2018. The Chinese financial authorities have prepared follow-up measures related to financial opening, and the Chinese government’s efforts toward financial opening in the three years from 2018 to 2020 yielded more results than the ten-year opening period since its accession to the WTO. Against this backdrop, this study examines the main contents of China’s financial opening process, which has been accelerating recently, and derives evaluation and implications.
- Topic:
- Finance, Economy, Economic Growth, and Banks
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Korea
25. A Comprehensive Evaluation on Korea’s ODA to Rwanda’s Agriculture Sector and Its implications for Strategic Approaches
- Author:
- Young Ho Park, Minji Jeong, and Soo Hyun Moon
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- There has been a growing consensus in the national and international aid architecture that sporadic or scattered aid modality should be avoided. This study conducted a comprehensive cluster evaluation on Korea’s agricultural ODA to Rwanda between 2013 and 2017, with two newly devised indexes: Cluster Performance Index (CPI) and Resource Allocation Index (RAI). Every Korean agricultural ODA project was categorized into five clusters and numerically evaluated against criteria widely used in the evaluation of development projects: relevance, efficiency, effectiveness and sustainability. Our cluster evaluation reveals that projects are mostly planned appropriately, but in some clusters, large amounts of the budget have been invested in poorly planned projects. Regarding efficiency, there was considerable room for improvement in all clusters. Particularly, in the Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) category, all clusters scored below average. Concerning performance evaluation, all clusters scored relatively high in effectiveness, specifically in goal achievement. Lastly, in terms of sustainability, risk management was found to be relatively inadequate in all clusters. Based on the lessons from the aforementioned observations and analysis results, this study suggests ODA quality can be improved by optimizing budget allocation, improving monitoring efficiency, creating synergistic effects through cluster linkage, and developing agricultural value chain program.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Foreign Aid, Economy, and Value Chains
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Asia, Korea, and Rwanda
26. Economic Policies of GCC Countries in the Era of Low Oil Prices and Their Policy Implications for Korea
- Author:
- Kwon Hyung Lee, Sung Hyun Son, Yun Hee Jang, and Kwang Ho Ryou
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- Over the past several decades, the six member countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have implemented economic policies for industrial diversification to lessen severe dependence on the oil industry. Such policy efforts have been driven by their awareness of macro-economic and structural risks from heavy volatilities in international oil markets in terms of fiscal and trade sectors. For instance, the drop in international oil prices reduces export performance in the oil and natural gas sectors, which in turn results in a decline in the stability of fiscal revenue. The recent trends of low oil prices since 2014, as well as high unemployment rates, have strengthened the policy regime for industrial diversification and job creation supported by mid- to long-term economic plans of the GCC countries. This report reviews what has been emphasized in the areas of industrial, employment, trade and investment policies. We then derive implications for Korean companies and policymakers for sustainable cooperation between Korea and the Middle East.
- Topic:
- Oil, Economy, Diversification, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Asia, Korea, and Gulf Nations
27. The Effects of US-China Rivalry on Latin America and Their Implications
- Author:
- Sungwoo Hong, Yeo Joon Yoon, Jino Kim, Jeewoon Rim, and Jimin Nam
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- The conflict between the United States and China may be the issue of most importance as well as interest to the world, prior to COVID-19. This conflict between the two countries is appearing not only in the economic sector, but also in various field such as politics, diplomacy, and military affairs. Such competition between the two countries is likely to escalate further as multilateral systems such as the WTO are threatened and protectionism intensifies in the post-COVID-19 world. Even within Latin America, the competition between the two countries frequently appears in a variety of forms. Conflicts between the United States and China in Latin America tend to occur mainly in the infrastructure sectors. Furthermore, the United States pressured Latin American countries to choose between the United States and China, with the results of this pressure depending on the political orientation of the ruling government. In order to investigate the impact of retaliatory tariffs between the two countries on Latin American countries’ exports and welfare, we employ an event analysis for exports and computational general equilibrium (CGE) model for welfare, with Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, and Chile as the subject of our analysis. Based on the outcome of the event study, Brazil’s exports to the United States moderately increased due to the tariff imposition, and such an effect persisted for short term. Its exports to China rose considerably immediately after the tariff imposition, and then the impact tended to decrease over time. By contrast, it is difficult to conclude that the tariff imposition had a statistically significant and lasting effect on the exports of the remaining three countries to the United States and China. As a result of the analysis using the CGE model, meanwhile, the tariffs imposed between the United States and China trivially increased the welfare of Latin American countries.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economy, Tariffs, Exports, Trade, and Rivalry
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, South America, Latin America, Korea, and United States of America
28. The Economic Effects of Multinational Corporation Withdrawal and Policy Implications
- Author:
- Minsoo Han, Hyuk-Hwang Kim, Hyelin Choi, Danbee Park, and Jisu Kim
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- The shutdown of the GM Koreas Gunsan plant in May 2018 heightened social interest in the withdrawal of mutlinational corporations (MNCs). Against this backdrop, the forthcoming research The economic effects of multinational corporation withdrawal and policy responses studies the previous cases of MNC withdrawal, estimates the effects on labor market., and provides policy directions to address to the withdrawal. This note summarizes some of its important results.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, Economy, Multinational Corporations, and Economic Policy
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Korea
29. Has the Ghost that Ruined the Country Been Resurrected? The Puzzle of South Korea’s Domestic and Foreign Policies
- Author:
- Jimmyn Pare
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
- Institution:
- Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
- Abstract:
- Under changing dynamics such as US-China relations, the domestic and foreign policies of South Korea’s new government under President Moon Jae-in have shown favor to China and North Korea, which is somewhat contrary to previous administrations that maintained pro-American policies. This situation is very similar to the geopolitical circumstances of the Joseon Dynasty during the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries before Korea was occupied by Japan. This article analyzes and compares the geopolitical situations and Korea’s domestic and foreign policies of the two periods. By doing so, this article argues that policy makers should be more prudent when deliberating what should be achieved in order to enhance the future of Korea, rather than how to ensure their own personal legacy or ambition for political power.
- Topic:
- Treaties and Agreements, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Reunification
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Korea
30. Understanding and Reducing Military Vulnerabilities of Civilian Nuclear Plants: The Case for the Northeast Asia
- Author:
- Jungmin Kang
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Case Study
- Institution:
- Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
- Abstract:
- A Fukushima-like nuclear accident does not have to be caused by nature. Similar results could be wrought by military attack that disabled its safety systems, including cooling and power systems of nuclear power plants (NPPs). This study shows hypothetical releases from a core meltdown or spent fuel pool fire of NPPs occurred by military attack such as missile attacks in some of Northeast Asia countries, with atmospheric dispersion and deposition calculations using the HYSPLIT code with historical meteorological data for the region.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Science and Technology, Nuclear Power, and Crisis Management
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Asia, and Korea
31. A New Horizon for the Korea-India Strategic and Sustainable Partnership under Korea's New Southern Policy
- Author:
- Choong Yong Ahn
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
- Abstract:
- India and South Korea, Asia’s third- and fourth-largest economies, respectively, established a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) in 2010 and upgraded their relationship to a special strategic partnership in 2015. South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s “New Southern” policy and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “Act East” policy share important objectives and values through which Korea and India can maximize their potential to pursue high tech-oriented, win-win growth. Both countries face the great challenge of diversifying their economic partners in their respective geo-economic domains amid newly emerging international geo-economic dynamics as well as rapidly changing Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies. Given the two countries’ excessive dependence on the Chinese market and potential risks and uncertainties involved in the U.S.-China trade war and related security conflicts, South Korea and India need to deepen bilateral linkages in trade, investment, and cultural contacts. South Korea-India cooperation is crucial in promoting plurilateralism, prosperity, and harmony in East Asia. This paper suggests a specific action agenda to fulfill mutual commitments as entailed in the “Special Strategic Partnership” between these two like-minded countries of South Korea and India.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, and Industry
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, South Asia, India, Asia, South Korea, and Korea
32. Framing an Indo-Pacific Narrative in India-South Korea Ties
- Author:
- Jagannath P. Panda
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
- Abstract:
- Both India’s and South Korea’s strategic choices are deeply influenced by the rapidly evolving Indo-Pacific construct, particularly amid a mounting U.S.-China rivalry. With India’s “Look/Act East” policy and South Korea’s “New Southern Policy” offering a perfect stage for deepened mutual cooperation, both nations need to further their relations to build Asia’s future while advancing their respective national interests. With both countries following stringent foreign policies as a result of the actions of their immediate neighbors, they present a geopolitically strategic complementarity for their relationship to prosper and emerge as one of the most important relationships in the region. Seoul’s hesitation to overtly embrace the “Indo-Pacific” concept is not really a barrier; rather a geo-political overture to discard the balance of power politics and pursue an autonomous foreign policy. India’s preference for the “Indo-Pacific” is equally based on strategic autonomy, imbibing universal values and an inclusive regional order. Both countries emphasize a free and rules-based Indo-Pacific and have immense potential to establish security and connectivity partnerships as the keystone of their bilateral ties. With India and South Korea understanding the economic importance versus security ramifications of China, and with Japan’s reemergence as a key regional, if not global actor, both countries need to bring serious strategic intent to their relationship. Making use of the ASEAN platform and bilateral dialogues, South Korea and India have the potential to become one of the strongest Indo-Pacific partners of the 21st century
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- China, South Asia, India, Asia, South Korea, Korea, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific
33. Taking stock: Where are geopolitics headed in the COVID-19 era?
- Author:
- Jeffrey Cimmino, Matthew Kroenig, and Barry Pavel
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The COVID-19 pandemic is a strategic shock, and its almost immediate, damaging effects on the global economy constitute a secondary disruption to global order. Additional secondary strategic shocks (e.g., in the developing world) are looming. Together, these developments pose arguably the greatest threat to the global order since World War II. In the aftermath of that conflict, the United States and its allies established a rules-based international system that has guaranteed freedom, peace, and prosperity for decades. If the United States and its allies do not act effectively, the pandemic could upend this order. This issue brief considers the current state of the pandemic and how it has strained the global rules-based order over the past few months. First, it considers the origins of the novel coronavirus and how it spread around the world. Next, it examines how COVID-19 has exacerbated or created pressure points in the global order, highlights uncertainties ahead, and provides recommendations to the United States and its partners for shaping the post-COVID-19 world.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, Politics, European Union, Economy, Business, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, South Asia, Eurasia, India, Taiwan, Asia, North America, Korea, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific
34. Democracy under siege: Advancing cooperation and common values in the Indo-Pacific
- Author:
- Kharis Templeman
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Over the past three decades, democracy has put down roots in many seemingly unlikely places across Asia, from Mongolia to Indonesia. At a time when democracy is in global retreat, the majority of these Asian regimes have demonstrated surprising resiliency, though many continue to suffer from glaring flaws: weak state capacity and accountability institutions, the absence of impartial rule of law, and uneven protection of political rights and civil liberties. This issue brief, “Democracy under Siege: Advancing Cooperation and Common Values in the Indo-Pacific,” by Dr. Kharis Templeman, examines challenges and opportunities for advancing cooperation and common values in the Indo-Pacific as the region faces an increasing challenge from China.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Corruption, Diplomacy, International Organization, Politics, Reform, Elections, Democracy, Rule of Law, Norms, and Transition
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Taiwan, East Asia, Asia, Australia, Korea, and Indo-Pacific
35. Normalization by Other Means—Technological Infrastructure and Political Commitment in the North Korean Nuclear Crisis
- Author:
- Christopher Lawrence
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Security
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- The 1994 Agreed Framework called for North Korea to dismantle its plutonium-production complex in exchange for civilian light water reactors (LWRs) and the promise of political normalization with the United States. Today, scholars look back at the Agreed Framework as a U.S. offer of “carrots” to bribe the regime, but this framing overlooks the credibility challenges of normalization and the distinctive technical challenges of building LWRs in North Korea. Political and technical analysis reveals how the LWR project helped build credibility for the political changes promised in the Agreed Framework.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons, Politics, Science and Technology, History, Infrastructure, Crisis Management, and Normalization
- Political Geography:
- Asia, North Korea, North America, Korea, and United States of America
36. A Roundtable on Monica Kim The Interrogation Rooms of the Korean War: The Untold History
- Author:
- Mitchell Lerner, Judy Tzu-Chun Wu, Arissa H. Oh, Zachary M. Matusheski, Peter Banseok Kwon, and Monica Kim
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Society for Historians of American Foreign Relations (SHAFR)
- Abstract:
- A Roundtable on Monica Kim The Interrogation Rooms of the Korean War: The Untold History
- Topic:
- International Relations, Cold War, War, History, Military Affairs, United States, Korean War, and Diplomatic History
- Political Geography:
- South Korea, North Korea, Korea, and Korean Peninsula
37. Why Canada Must Embrace a Free and Open Indo-Pacific
- Author:
- Jonathan Berkshire Miller and Stephen Nagy
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
- Abstract:
- How has Canada viewed the scope of its engagement in Asia? The traditional lens to look at such engagement has been through the Asia-Pacific framing – defining the region largely through our experience in the multilateral architecture such as the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) on the trade side, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Regional Forum (ARF) on the political-security side. Canada was a founding member of APEC in 1990 and has been a dialogue partner in the ARF since its formation in 1994. Aside from these two main vehicles, Canada has been active in the international development space over the years through and is member of the Asian Development Bank, and more recently joined – while not before considerable internal debate – the Chinese-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank in 2017.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, International Development, Multilateralism, Investment, Trade, and ASEAN
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Canada, Asia, North America, Korea, and Indo-Pacific
38. Americans Positive on South Korea Despite Trump’s Views on Alliance
- Author:
- Karl Friedhoff
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Chicago Council on Global Affairs
- Abstract:
- The Trump presidency has strained relations with several Asian allies, including South Korea. But the 2020 Chicago Council Survey results show that President Donald Trump’s repeated threats and bullying tactics on defense and trade issues with Seoul have done little to soften support among the American public for the alliance with South Korea. In fact, favorable views of South Korea are now at an all-time high.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Defense Policy, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- South Korea, North America, Korea, and United States of America
39. Defined Contribution Funded Social Security and Labor Supply: Focus on Mexican Social Security Reform in 1997
- Author:
- Sungwoo Hong
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- Countries adopting a defined benefit pay-as-you-go (DB PAYG) regime have two options to solve the issue of financial unsustainability: (1) a parametric reform, which alters policies within DB PAYG regime, and (2) a structural reform, which changes the regime from DB PAYG to a defined contribution funded (DC) system. In this study, focusing on the structural reform of Mexico in 1997, I investigate whether structural social security reform affects labor supply. The findings suggest that the change in the social security regime increased both labor force participation and work hours per week. However, in the case of the elderly, the intensive margin effect on labor supply was not statistically significant.
- Topic:
- Reform, Tax Systems, Social Security, and Labor Market
- Political Geography:
- Asia, Korea, and Mexico
40. Bargaining and War: On the Communication Equilibrium in Conflict Games
- Author:
- Youngseok Park and Colin Campbell
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- We present a version of Baliga and Sjostrom’s (2012a) conflict games with two asymmetric players. The players contemplate whether to take an active engagement action to compel the leader of a neighboring state (an extremist) to give up his risky weapons. We show that a player with greater damage from the extremist is more likely to choose an active engagement action than a player with lesser damage. Furthermore, we examine cheap-talk communication equilibria with the extremist. The likelihood of both players choosing the active engagement action decreases by a hawkish extremist who can send a provocative message, if both players are coordination types. If both players are opportunistic types, a dovish extremist can send an appeasement message that causes one player to be more active while another to be more inactive. Lastly, we show that there does not exist any other communication equilibrium for either kind of extremist, for any other combination of player types.
- Topic:
- Political Economy, International Security, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Asia, Korea, and Global Focus
41. Determinants of Korean Outward Foreign Direct Investment: How Do Korean Firms Respond to the Labor Costs of Host Countries?
- Author:
- Hanbyul Ryu and Young Sik Jeong
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- Low cost of labor has been one of the major incentives that foreign firms invest in many developing countries. Yet, many developing countries including China and ASEAN have recently experienced a rapid increase in labor costs. Using the wage information provided by JETRO, this study examines how Korean FDI outflow is affected by the increase in labor costs of the manufacturing industry in host countries. The results indicate that the worker’s and engineer’s wages in Asian developing countries, who accumulated at least 3 and 5 years of work experience, have generally a negative impact on Korean FDI outflow. However, there exist positive relationships between the wages and FDI when the wages stay at very low levels. We do not find evidence that labor costs make a significant impact on Korean FDI outflow to European or Developed countries.
- Topic:
- Development, Foreign Direct Investment, and Labor Market
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Korea
42. Development of the Russian Far East in 20 Years of the Putin Era: Seeking New Directions for Deepening Cooperation between Korea and Russia
- Author:
- Joungho Park, Seok Hwan Kim, Boogyun Kang, Pavel A. Minakir, Artem G. Isaev, Anna B. Bardal, and Denis V. Suslov
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- This study is the outcome of a joint research project commemorating the 15th anniversary of the establishment of the cooperative relationship between the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP) and the Institute for Economic Research of the Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ERI). As is well known, the year 2020 marks the 30th anniversary of diplomatic relations between Korea and Russia. Therefore, it is time for the two countries to prepare for the “2.0 Era of Korea-Russia Cooperation” while comprehensively evaluating existing achievements and tasks. In particular, in order to build a sustainable relationship between the two countries, it is necessary to establish a strategic contact point between Korea’s New Northern Policy and Russia’s New Eastern Policy, which can be realized through bilateral and multilateral cooperation in the Far East. In this regard, the main purpose of this study is to understand the main directions, key objectives, and political and economic implications of Russia’s policies in the Far East, which have been strategically pursued since the launch of Putin’s fourth term, and to explore new opportunities and possibilities for development cooperation in the Far East. We hope that this book will serve as a useful guide to open a new path for Far East development cooperation marking the 30th anniversary of Korea-Russia diplomatic relations.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Politics, Bilateral Relations, Economy, and Putin
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Asia, and Korea
43. Approaches to Labor Demand Forecast in Developing Economies and Their Implications for Korea's ODA
- Author:
- Young Ho Park, Yejin Kim, and Minji Jeong
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- This study aims to develop systematic labor forecast methods, thereby contributing to increasing the efficiency of TVET ODA. This study suggests a new labor demand forecast methodology that combines quantitative and qualitative analyses and applies it to Vietnam, estimating labor demand by occupations in the country’s wireless communication equipment industry. This methodology starts with a statistical projection of Vietnam’s future labor market and industry. Subsequently, this study uses an enterprise survey and stakeholder interviews to complement missing information, as Vietnam's statistical system, like that of many other emerging economies, lacks some detailed data. Currently, the “element occupations” group takes the largest portion in the labor demand by industry and occupation. According to our results, however, the “plant and machine operators and assemblers” group is expected to gradually increase, thus becoming the largest occupation group in the wireless communication equipment industry in the near future. Given the various circumstances surrounding the labor market in developing countries, other alternatives in addition to our hybrid method of combining quantitative and qualitative analysis can also produce well-founded labor force projections. This study suggests analytical methodologies using global value chain (GVC) and big data as innovative alternatives, which can complement the shortcomings of traditional evaluation methods. ODA implementing agencies would benefit from paying attention to the labor forecasting methods presented in this research, and devising policies supporting these methods in order to properly apply them in reality.
- Topic:
- Communications, Labor Issues, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Asia, Vietnam, and Korea
44. Integrating Climate Change into Development Cooperation – Korea's Experience
- Author:
- Jione Jung and Jihei Song
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- Korea has reached milestones in development cooperation over the past two decades. At the same time, it has sought for various measures to better incorporate climate consideration in its cooperation activities. However, a number of challenges remain and further action is required in improving the system and practices to better integrate climate change into Korea’s development cooperation. We aim at providing an overview of Korea’s progress in integrating climate change into its development cooperation to share the experiences and to highlight some achievements. In doing so, we first review how other developed countries have promoted climate change integration. Through comparison with Germany, the United States, and Switzerland, we summarized several achievements made by Korea in the area of development cooperation. In addition, we identified areas for further improvement to better integrate climate change into development cooperation, as well as projections for the next phase of Korea’s development cooperation to begin in 2021.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Development, and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Korea
45. Foreign Aid to Fragile States: How Effective Does It Work?
- Author:
- Yul Kwon, Jisun Jeong, Yoon Sun Hur, Jihei Song, Aila Yoo, and Mi Lim Kim
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- Korea has put much effort into providing aid for fragile states in efficient and effective ways. As a part of such efforts, Korea established the Fragile States Assistance Strategy in 2017. However, there is still room for improvement in terms of the effectiveness of Korea’s Official Development Assistance (ODA) implementation under fragile and conflict-affected situations. Accordingly, the study aims to suggest policy suggestions for Korea’s development cooperation in fragile states by comparing and analyzing the current status, policies, and characteristics of aid to fragile states in major donor countries, including Germany, Australia, Denmark, and Japan. In addition, we review Korea’s case and draw following policy implications to tackle the remaining challenges. First, it is requisite for Korea to consolidate the whole-of-government approach and reciprocal coordination mechanisms to support for fragile states for overcoming fundamental causes of fragilites. Second, Korea should choose proper types of aid and sectoral aid allocation suitable for overcoming vulnerabilities and development challenges efficiently and effectively in fragile and conflict-affected states. Lastly, the Korean government should conduct a fragility analysis and manage projects systematically.
- Topic:
- Development, Foreign Aid, Fragile States, and Donors
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Korea
46. U.S.-China Technological Rivalry and Its Implications for Korea
- Author:
- Wonho Yeon
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- Recent developments in advanced technology are changing the concept of hegemonic competition. The key feature of technologies in the 4th Industrial Revolution is dual-use. Emerging technologies such as 5G, AI, big data, robotics, aerospace, supercomputers, and quantum computer-related technologies can be used for both civilian and military purposes. The more you invest in the development of advanced technologies, the closer you will be to economic and military hegemony. Therefore, it is no wonder that the U.S. harbors great concerns facing the rise of China in these advanced technologies. To estimate and compare the innovation productivity of the U.S. and that of China, this study constructs a structural estimation model in which each country produces international patents using R&D expenditures and R&D researchers. Empirical results have presented novel findings indicating that China’s innovation productivity has surpassed that of the U.S. since 2015. At the same time we can observe that the U.S. has the world’s largest intellectual property surplus and keeps expanding it, while China’s intellectual property deficit has been growing every year. Given the two contradictory facts - China’s high innovation productivity and low intellectual property balance - we can conclude that China is strong at “innovation” but weak at “invention.” Knowing this, the U.S. eventually began to target this vulnerability. This is the U.S.’ Tech-Decoupling strategy. To achieve U.S.-China tech decoupling, the U.S. has been strengthening trade and investment sanctions against China. In specific, the U.S. has been utilizing the Export Control Reform Act (ECRA), Section 889 of the 2019 National Defense Authority Act, and the Foreign Investment Risk Review Modernization Act (FIRRMA). In return, China is responding to the U.S. sanctions with the new “Long March” strategy rather than a tit-for-tat strategy. In other words, China has been setting long-term aims and responding to the U.S. sanctions by improving institutional arrangements, refining industrial policies, and developing its own technologies such as “Dual-circulation strategy” and “New Infrastructure Plan.” Ironically, increasing pressure from the U.S. is expected to further strengthen China’s R&D capabilities in advanced technology and accelerate its competitiveness in emerging industries. With the onset of the 4th Industrial Revolution, China is rapidly closing the quality gap and technology gap in major industries where Korea has a comparative advantage. If Korea does not adequately respond to changes, it may be difficult to maintain a comparative advantage over China. Thus, now that U.S.-China tensions are intensifying, Korea is facing a pivotal moment in determining the future path of its economy.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Sanctions, Investment, Innovation, Trade, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, Korea, and United States of America
47. Special Commentary: COVID-19 and Indo-Pacific Strategy: Korea is Up, China is Down, and the US (For Now) is Out
- Author:
- John Schaus and Mr. Nathan P. Freier
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- The COVID-19 pandemic has led to over three million confirmed infections and more than one hundred thousand dead globally. In the United States, over sixty thousand people have died and more than 1 million have been infected. According to epidemiologists, this is only the first phase. Thus, near-term “success” against the outbreak reflects a current snapshot in time, not necessarily a permanent outcome. In light of our very preliminary understanding of the long-term impact of the outbreak and national-level responses, there are discernible trends about how countries’ responses are impacting their standing in key regions and around the world. Few regions offer such stark contrast in stories as the Indo-Pacific. In that region, South Korea is up, China is down, and the United States is out. These shifts may or may not endure. What is increasingly clear, however, is that ineffective responses—perceived at home or abroad—will limit policymakers’ freedom of action for some time to come.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Armed Forces, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- China, Korea, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific
48. The Origins of the Korean Language: A Linguist’s Perspective
- Author:
- J. Marshall Unger
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Journal of Korean Studies
- Institution:
- International Council on Korean Studies
- Abstract:
- On the basis of the comparative method, developed over more than two centuries of empirical study, the best results to date are that the presentday Korean and Japanese languages had a common source, called protoKorean-Japanese. Korean and Japanese are more similar to one another than either is to any of the languages spoken in adjacent parts of Asia. That is as far as pure linguistics takes us at present. Other scientific disciplines must be utilized to determine when and where proto-Korean-Japanese was spoken, when its speakers separated into pre-Korean and pre-Japanese groups, and when the descendants of those groups resumed contact on the Korean peninsula prior to the migration of most pre-Japanese speakers to Japan.
- Topic:
- Migration, History, Linguistics, and Language
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Asia, and Korea
49. Parameters VOL. 48 NO. 3 Autumn 2018
- Author:
- Antulio J. Echevarria II, Eric B. Setzekorn, Richard G. Malish, Kelly A. Grieco, Vinay Kaura, Paul E. Vera Delzo, Richard Milburn, and Brandon T. Euhus
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- The Autumn issue of Parameters opens with a forum featuring two contributions that highlight some important Challenges for USCivil-Military Relations. The first contribution, “Policy Revolt: Army Opposition to the Korea Withdrawal Plan” by Eric Setzekorn, argues senior US Army leaders adopted a Fabian strategy of indirect resistance to Carter’s desire to reduce the number of troops stationed in Korea. The strategy worked. But the author leaves us wondering whether that success was a positive development for US civil-military relations. The second article, “The Walter Reed Scandal and the All-Volunteer Force” by Richard Malish, provides intriguing evidence that the American public might have put the AVF on a pedestal high enough that it harms civil-military relations. Our second forum, On Alliances and Coalitions, offers three essays addressing the importance of integrating disparate perspectives under a common strategy. The first article, “Fighting and Learning in the Great War: Four Lessons in Coalition Warfare” by Kelly Grieco, describes the key insights the United States and its allies drew, or ought to have drawn, during the First World War. All of these, as Grieco shows, have immediate relevance today. The second contribution to the forum, Vinay Kaura’s article “India-US Relations: From Distant Partners to an Alliance” suggests American and Indian interests are converging in a manner that makes an alliance between them, hitherto inconceivable, now a worthy objective. Paul Vera Delzo’s “Toward a Whole-of-Government Approach: Revamping Peru’s Strategy Process” describes how Peru can obtain greater efficiency and effectiveness from its strategies by integrating all government agencies. The final forum, On Clausewitz, presents two articles that challenge nontraditional interpretations of On War. Richard Milburn’s “Reclaiming Clausewitz’s Theory of Victory” takes on Emile Simpson’s “Clausewitz’s Theory of War and Victory in Contemporary Conflict” (Parameters Winter 2017–18). Milburn rejects Simpson’s view and maintains Clausewitz’s theory of victory remains relevant in the twenty-first century. Brandon Euhus’s “A Clausewitzian Response to ‘Hyperwarfare’ ” urges military planners to remember the human dimension of war, as expounded upon by military writers from Thucydides to Mao Zedong, is ultimately the decisive one.
- Topic:
- Security, International Affairs, Armed Forces, Military Affairs, and Army
- Political Geography:
- India, North America, Korea, and United States of America
50. The Missing Link in Understanding South Korea’s Foreign Policy: Panmunjom Declaration and Beyond
- Author:
- Jong-hwa Ahn
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- The Republic of Korea has chosen its alignment strategies and policy actions based on international dynamics and domestic constraints. South Korea’s domestic politics have had different effects on the recent administrations. Park Geun-hye had to accept the discontinuity of her foreign policy when she faced impeachment. Moon Jae-in, however, has pursued his dreams for inter-Korean relations despite systemic and domestic obstacles. In the spirit of neoclassical realism, this study identifies state-society relations and domestic institutions as key interventions in the calculus of foreign policy behavior amidst the critical influence of systemic variables. Whereas the Park administration disregarded the dynamics of domestic politics by putting state security above all else, the Moon administration has pursued a détente policy with a deep awareness of domestic politics. In a restrictive strategic environment, South Korea’s policy options are limited and the optimal choices are not necessarily the ideal ones. Foreign policy actions based on the dynamics of systemic structures and domestic politics have significant implications for Northeast Asia. State-society relations and domestic institutions have implications for the US-South Korea-Japan strategic triangle. Different strategic interests in the region place the triangle at risk in dealing with the North Korean security problem.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy and Peace
- Political Geography:
- South Korea and Korea