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11. Friends and Foes in the Indo-Pacific: Multilateralism Out, Minilateralism In?

Author:
Axel Berkofsky and Guido Alberto Casanova
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
Minilateralism is already among us, and it is here to stay. The well-known shortcomings of the multilateral system of governance are pushing individual states in the Indo-Pacific to come up with new and different solutions to deal with the security and prosperity issues that current institutions are unable to tackle. Amid growing geopolitical rivalries and the uncertainty provoked by the re-election of Donald Trump, this report aims to shed some clarity on an emerging trend that is already affecting the foreign policy of great powers in a region that is central to global affairs.
Topic:
Security, Alliance, Multilateralism, Institutions, and Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, Japan, India, Asia, North Korea, Philippines, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

12. Will China’s economy follow the same path as Japan’s?

Author:
Alicia Garcia-Herrero and Jianwei Xu
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Since the bursting of China’s real-estate bubble in mid-2021, there has been a growing concern that the Chinese economy could end up like that of Japan in the early 1990s. Some structural patterns are strikingly similar: low private consumption over a long period, especially when compared to the rest of the world, and an excessively high savings ratio, though China’s imbalances now are even larger that Japan’s were then. Initial policy responses to the bursting of their respective bubbles have also been similar. Both China now and Japan then were initially hesitant to ease monetary and fiscal policies, and opted to expand manufacturing, with an eye on external demand, supported by more research and development expenditure. In both cases, the outcomes were stubborn trade surpluses and a mercantilist attitude to their growth problems, leading to the United States taking protectionist measures. China also seems to be following Japan’s offshoring of production to mitigate the impact of protectionism. The main difference, though, is that China now is a poorer country than Japan was then, with still more convergence opportunities ahead. China is also a much bigger military and geopolitical contender than Japan ever was. China’s geopolitical weight is behind the US technological containment of China, but also gives China more room for manoeuvre globally, especially in the Global South. It remains unclear – though globally significant – whether China will be able to deviate from the path followed by Japan in the 1980s and 1990s.
Topic:
Industrial Policy, Geopolitics, Economy, Economic Growth, Innovation, and Real Estate
Political Geography:
Japan, China, and Asia

13. Okinawa and Thule US military bases

Author:
Minori Takahashi and Ulrik Pram Gad
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Dialogue is key to building trust and legitimacy around US military bases. A comparison of the bases in Okinawa and Thule reveals that the outcome of such dialogues is shaped by who is included in the conversation. Involving regional governments can enhance inclusivity but lead to political instability, while relying on central authorities may offer stability but at the cost of excluding local communities.
Topic:
Legitimacy, Dialogue, Trust, and Military Bases
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, and Greenland

14. Security Cooperation between Japan and the Nordic States in Uncertain Times

Author:
Fei Su, Jingdong Yuan, and Jiayi Zhou
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:
Amid rising geopolitical tensions and global uncertainty, security dynamics between Japan and the Nordic states are evolving. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Japanese and Nordic security concerns have increasingly converged. Security cooperation between the two regions has expanded through bilateral initiatives and within broader frameworks such as the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Despite limitations in states’ resources and political will to operate beyond their immediate neighbourhood, there is mutual recognition of the need to engage more actively, individually and collectively, on security matters. This shared awareness provides a foundation for deeper cooperation in support of both regional and global security.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Threat Perception, and Security Cooperation
Political Geography:
Japan, Europe, Asia, and Nordic Nations

15. The Inevitability of Tokyo? Japan’s Tourism Boom and Urban Centralisation

Author:
Maximilien Xavier Rehm
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Australian Institute of International Affairs (AIIA)
Abstract:
Japan welcomed over 36.8 million tourists in 2024, a new record. This influx, along with a growing foreign resident population, is seemingly intensifying the centralisation of people in Tokyo, despite ongoing government efforts to counteract regional depopulation.
Topic:
Demographics, Tourism, Urban, Rural, and Centralization
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, and Tokyo

16. Identifying Pathways for U.S. Shipbuilding Cooperation with Northeast Asian Allies

Author:
Henry H. Carroll and Cynthia R. Cook
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Military conflict in the Indo-Pacific would demand overwhelming U.S. naval power. Yet the shipbuilding sector faces capacity shortages, industrial base constraints, cost overruns, and delayed delivery, suggesting that Washington should explore alternative pathways for delivering naval capability. One approach is to enhance cooperation with close allies such as Japan and South Korea. Options for cooperation include allied participation in maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO); allied purchase and revitalization of U.S. shipyards; various methods of coproduction, including modular construction; and U.S. purchase of allied-built ships. Novel strategies that leverage the United States’ strong and unique network of allies and partners will require thoughtful implementation of industrial cooperation policy, which has historically been challenging. For the United States to strike the right balance between leaning on its allies and partners to alleviate its shipbuilding problems and investing in its own capabilities at home—for these approaches are not mutually exclusive—it should understand the implications of its various cooperative options with its allies.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, Navy, Defense Industry, and Shipbuilding
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, North America, Korea, and United States of America

17. The Evolution of Japan's Limited Sovereignty: From the Era of Unequal Treaties to the Japan-U.S. Alliance

Author:
Yukio Sakurai
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
This paper examines the evolution of Japan's limited sovereignty across two distinct historical periods: the nineteenth-century era of unequal treaties and the post– World War II era shaped by the Japan–U.S. alliance. In the earlier period, treaties imposed by Western powers curtailed Japan’s jurisdictional and tariff autonomy. Paradoxically, these constraints catalysed rapid modernisation and a national drive to restore sovereign equality. In contrast, the post-war period introduced a different model of limited sovereignty: one characterised by strategic dependence through the Japan–U.S. Security Treaty and the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA). These legal arrangements grant the United States significant military rights on Japanese territory, including base maintenance and jurisdictional authority, raising ongoing concerns about Japan’s territorial and legal autonomy. Further tensions arise from the opaque operation of the Japan–U.S. Security Consultative Committee, whose limited transparency and perceived imbalance in representation have prompted criticism regarding undue U.S. influence. Evolving regional security dynamics and potential shifts in U.S. foreign policy further complicate Japan’s sovereignty posture. Additionally, growing secrecy surrounding national security and the technical nature of defence policy hinder public deliberation and raise broader questions about democratic accountability. Employing an interdisciplinary framework that draws from international law, political science, and history, this study analyses the legal instruments and socio-political contexts that shaped these two periods. By comparing externally imposed and internally accepted constraints on sovereignty, the paper contributes to a deeper understanding of how nations negotiate autonomy within global power structures. This analysis, grounded in a comprehensive review of English and Japanese scholarship, offers a nuanced perspective on Japan’s evolving relationship with limited sovereignty and its implications for democratic governance and strategic positioning in East Asia.
Topic:
Sovereignty, Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, Alliance, and Autonomy
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

18. Mainstreaming Security Norms as Japanese Strategy to Gain its Global Power: A Content Analysis on ODA Documents

Author:
Surwandono Surwandono, Ratih Herningtyas, and Rizki Dian Nursita
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:
Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:
Japan's defeat in World War II did not discourage its obsession to become a global power that influences the behaviour of other countries and the world order at large. Following World War II, despite being constrained by the 1947 Constitution, Japan emerged as an economic agent capable of playing a significant role on the global stage through economic and cultural instruments. Overseas Development Assistance (ODA) has become one of the key tools for Japan to actively participate and contribute to current global politics. This article aims to identify Japan's strategy in using ODA to maintain its influence as a global power. Using content analysis of 2015 ODA Charter or Development Cooperation Charter (DCC) and the White Paper on Development Cooperation (WPDC), this article finds that Japan's strategy to maintain its influence at the global level is carried out by prioritising human security norms in ODA distribution. The Japanese government consistently applies normative and operational norms regarding human security rather than national security to ensure acceptance from recipient countries. These efforts begin with the development of Japan's legal governance framework, which is designed in a smart, systematic, objective, and visionary manner. Japan demonstrates how a country facing constitutional constraints can become a stable global power.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Development, Development Aid, and Human Security
Political Geography:
Japan and Asia

19. India–Japan Defense Partnership in the Indo-Pacific: Geopolitical Prospects and Challenges Under Trump

Author:
Yen Pham Thi
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
This article examines the India–Japan defense partnership in the Indo-Pacific, focusing on its geopolitical prospects and challenges under the Trump administration. Strengthened by shared concerns over China’s rising influence and the convergence of their Indo-Pacific strategies, the partnership has evolved beyond symbolic engagement to include joint exercises, technology sharing, and defense dialogues aimed at preserving a free and rules-based regional order. At the same time, India’s reliance on Russian defense equipment, Japan’s dependence on US security guarantees, and the “America First” policy under Trump pose significant constraints. To sustain and deepen cooperation, both nations must enhance bilateral mechanisms, pursue strategic autonomy, expand multilateral engagements, and promote regional norms. These steps are essential for building a resilient, sustainable, and strategic partnership in the Indo-Pacific amid a shifting US foreign policy landscape.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Partnerships, Geopolitics, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
Japan, China, India, Asia, and Indo-Pacific

20. Japan Looks Ahead to Trump 2.0

Author:
Bart Gaens
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
Today, on the eve of the presidential inauguration in the US, Japan’s current Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba faces a new Trump administration, and, in a more volatile regional and global environment, also more challenges in terms of foreign and security policy.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, and United States of America