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222. China Brief, Beijing studies the U.S. war in Iraq
- Author:
- Willy Lam, Gordon G. Chang, Richard D. Fisher, and Wangchuk Meston
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- Chinese strategic and military experts are scrutinizing the U.S. war in Iraq, and for several reasons. First, if American and British forces become bogged down in their effort to liquidate the regime of Saddam Hussein, then it is much less likely that Washington will soon target other rogue regimes with weapons of mass destruction, such as North Korea, a Chinese ally.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China, Iraq, America, Washington, Israel, and North Korea
223. China Brief, National People's Congress: Popularity and power
- Author:
- Willy Lam, Harvey Stockwin, Gordon G. Chang, and M. D. Nalapat
- Publication Date:
- 03-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- Newly elected President Hu Jintao and his allies should take heart from the results of the recently concluded First Session of the Tenth National People's Congress (NPC).
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China and Israel
224. China Brief, Osama bin Laden in China
- Author:
- Willy Lam, Ahmad Lutfi, Gordon G. Chang, and Richard D. Jr. Fisher
- Publication Date:
- 03-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- Beijing often downplays the size of its Xinjiang problem for fear of exposing the difficulties it faces containing the “cancer of terrorism.” Since September 11, 2001, Beijing has been forced to reverse this policy due to repeated terrorist attacks. The most recent of these took place on February 25, 2003, when two bombs ripped through two of Beijing's most prestigious universities. The blasts shattered Beijing's long-held claim that it has been winning its war on terror.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, and Beijing
225. China Brief, Beijing: blockade buster?
- Author:
- Willy Lam, Gordon G. Chang, William C. Triplett, and Dr. Gulshan Dietl
- Publication Date:
- 02-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- Will Kim Jong Il just slam down the phone on China's president, Jiang Zemin? That's what Beijing wants us to think. “If Kim tells Jiang he is going to test a nuclear weapon unless Jiang gives him more aid, what do we do? We give him more aid. We don't have a choice,” says one Chinese analyst who has dealt with Pyongyang. “We have some influence, but we don't have the kind of relationship where we can tell Kim what to do. If we tell him to do something, he doesn't listen. If we threaten him, he listens even less. If Jiang called him, he might hang up.”
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China and Israel
226. China Brief, China's 7-percent solution
- Author:
- James E. Auer, Willy Lam, Gordon G. Chang, Richard D. Fisher, and Holmes Liao
- Publication Date:
- 01-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- “If we didn't have China I would be suicidal,” chief Morgan Stanley economist Stephen Roach said this month. “It's the only bright spot in the world economy.” And bright spot it is: Beijing announced that its gross domestic product grew 8 percent last year. The rate is so good that some are wondering whether the People's Republic can become the new engine for world growth.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China and Israel
227. China Brief, Xu Wenli, into American exile
- Author:
- Robyn Lim, Willy Lam, Jonathan Mirsky, and Thomas Woodrow
- Publication Date:
- 01-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- On Christmas Eve the Chinese government released Xu Wenli, the founder of the country's tiny Democratic Party, into American exile. Xu has spent sixteen of the last twenty-one years behind bars. The most interesting comments on this event came from John Kamm, who for years has had no equal for occasionally persuading the Chinese government to free its political “enemies”.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China, America, and Israel
228. North Korea: A Phased Negotiation Strategy
- Publication Date:
- 08-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Time is slipping away for a peaceful resolution of the nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, International Relations, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- Israel, East Asia, and North Korea
229. Russia in the International System
- Publication Date:
- 06-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- Russia's Foreign Policy Russian foreign policy in the coming years will be characterized by weakness; frustration--primarily with the United States as the world's preeminent power--over Russia's diminished status; generally cautious international behavior; and a drive to resubjugate, though not reintegrate, the other former Soviet states. The international situation affords Russia time to concentrate on domestic reforms because, for the first time in its history, it does not face significant external threats. But rather than use the breathing space for domestic reforms, Putin is as much--if not more--focused on restoring Russia's self-defined rightful role abroad and seeking to mold the CIS into a counterweight to NATO and the European Union. The Outside World's Views of Russia Russia does not have any genuine allies. Some countries are interested in good relations with Russia, but only as a means to another end. For example, China sees Russia as a counterweight to the United States but values more highly its ties with the United States. Some countries see Russia as a vital arms supplier but resent Russia also selling arms to their rivals (China-India, Iran-Iraq). Pro-Russia business lobbies exist in Germany, Italy, Turkey, and Israel (one-fifth of whose population now consists of Soviet émigres), but they do not single-handedly determine national policies. Europe is the only region that would like to integrate Russia into a security system, but it is divided over national priorities and institutional arrangements as well as put off by some Russian behavior. Most CIS governments do not trust their colossal neighbor, which continues to show an unsettling readiness to intervene in their internal affairs, though they know Russia well and are to a considerable degree comfortable in dealing with it. Turkey has developed an improved dialogue and an unprecedented number of economic ties with Russia during the post-Cold War period, but this more positive pattern of relations has not fully taken root, and Ankara remains suspicious of Moscow's intentions. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Moscow's role in the Middle East has been reduced, but Israel, Syria, Egypt, Libya, and Iraq all favor good relations with Russia. Mutual interests also override disagreements in Russian-Iranian relations, but Tehran is wary of Russian behavior, particularly toward Saddam Hussein. India still trusts Russia--a sentiment that is perhaps a residue of the genuine friendship of Cold War days--but clearly not in the same way it once did, and New Delhi fears that weakness will propel Russia into doing things that could drive India further away. In East Asia, the most substantial breakthrough has been the resurrected relationship between Russia and China, one that entails significant longer-term risk for Russia. Other countries in the region value their links with Moscow as a means to balance a more powerful China, or as a useful component of their larger political and economic strategies, but Russia's role in East Asia--as elsewhere--remains constrained by the decline in its political, military, and economic power over the last decade. Russia's Weakness Russia's weakness stems from long-term secular trends and from its domestic structure. In essence, the old nomenklatura and a few newcomers have transformed power into property on the basis of personal networks and created an equilibrium resting on insider dealings. These insiders may jockey for position but have a vested interest in preserving the system. The public does not like the system but is resigned to it and gives priority to the preservation of order. As for the economy, it is divided into a profitable, internationally integrated sector run by oligarchs and a much larger, insulated, low-productivity, old-style paternalistic sector that locks Russia into low growth. No solace will be forthcoming from the international business and energy worlds. They do not expect the poor commercial climate to improve greatly and will not increase investments much beyond current levels until it does. Militarily, Russia will also remain weak. Its nuclear arsenal is of little utility, and Moscow has neither the will nor the means to reform and strengthen its conventional forces. Hope for the Future? The best hope for change in Russia lies with the younger generation. Several participants reported that under-25 Russians have much more in common with their US counterparts, including use of the Internet, than with older Soviet generations. But there was some question over whether the new generation would change the system or adapt to it. Others placed some hope in international institutions, for instance the World Trade Organization, eventually forcing Russia to adapt to the modern world. Dissenting Views Some participants dissented from the overall forecast of depressing continuity. The keynote speaker, James Billington, stated that Russia would not be forever weak and that the current confusion would end in a few years either through the adoption of authoritarian nationalism or federated democracy. One scholar felt the Chechen war was feeding ethnic discord in other areas of the Federation to which Moscow would respond with increased authoritarianism, not necessarily successfully. Finally, a historian observed that the patience of Russians is legendary but not infinite, meaning that we should not be overly deterministic.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Development
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, Middle East, and Israel
230. Lebanon — Israeli Raid
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Israel last week launched an air raid against a Syrian radar station in Lebanon. The air raid has raised the stakes in the low-level military confrontation between Hizbollah and Israel. It has also exacerbated Lebanese internal divisions and exposed the lack of a national consensus on Hizbollah's cross-border operations. The Israeli raid has set a precedent and raised the stakes in Tel Aviv's confrontation with Hizbollah along the Lebanese border. Although neither Syria nor Israel is interested in a military confrontation, there are no guarantees that the situation will not spin out of control and lead to a limited regional conflict.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Security
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon