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51. The Impact of Different Basic Trust Types During Critical Situations: The Case of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait

Author:
Tamer Kasikci and Mustafa Yetim
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
The primary objective of this study is to elucidate the impact of ontological security on states’ foreign policy preferences. The study posits that foreign policy preferences are closely related with their basic trust, a product of the intricate interplay between actor’s agentic capacity and its internal and external environment. This theoretical proposition is subsequently subjected to comparative examination within the contexts of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. The study contends that despite sharing similar concerns regarding physical and ontological security, these two actors have pursued distinct foreign policy trajectories regarding the Arab uprisings and normalization with Israel that owe to differing types of basic trust. In doing so, the study aims to contribute to the ontological security literature from two perspectives: 1) to refine and elucidate the scope of the basic trust concept by reinterpreting it and highlighting its central role in ontological security analysis, and 2) to contribute to the practical applications of the field by applying the concepts developed in the ontological security literature to case studies of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Arab Spring, and Normalization
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia

52. Israel against Iran: regional conflict scenarios in 2024

Author:
Erwin van Veen
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Four scenarios capture the main dynamics of conflict between Israel and the US on the one hand, and Iran and the axis of resistance on the other. They are: ‘a fight for the status quo’, ‘shifting red lines’, ‘limited war’ and ‘total war’. The first two scenarios amount to muddling through under the permanent threat of escalation, which could happen due to unintended yet possibly catastrophic incidents. The more warlike scenarios signify a shift to high-intensity war across large parts, or all, of the region. As 7 October 2023 created tighter linkages between the Israeli occupation of the Palestinian territories and the regional conflict between Israel/US and Iran, the violent dynamics of either issue can trigger each scenario. Meanwhile, scenario pathways lie so close to each other that tipping points can swiftly transform one scenario into another. Together, the scenarios point to the need to develop conflict prevention measures between Israel, the US and Iran – such as hotlines, protocols that spell out red lines and tolerable action/reaction bandwidths or even demilitarised zones – between now and the US presidential elections in November. The core strategic objectives of the conflict parties suggest that progress is possible. Israel seeks to restore the security of its northern border without an all-out war against Hezbollah or Iran. It also intends to continue occupation. It does not care enough about normalisation with Saudi Arabia to discontinue annexation, which means it will not alter the regional security order to an extent that could truly threaten Iran. Tehran, in turn, seeks good relations with the Persian Gulf states, recognition as a regional power and the isolation of Israel. The US wishes to uphold Israel’s security by reducing the risk of Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran, but without triggering a region-wide, high-intensity conflict. A precarious balance might be achieved, for example if Israel halts the in-your-face elements of its expanding occupation, a reinforced UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) takes up position on both sides of the Israeli-Lebanese border, US sanction enforcement against Iran is somewhat loosened and the axis of resistance, including Iran, observes a longer-term ceasefire regarding Israel.
Topic:
Security, Conflict, Regional Politics, and Axis of Resistance
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

53. The Gaza War: Military Quagmire, Political Labyrinth

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
As the Israeli conflict in Gaza marks its third month, Israel has been unable to achieve military decisiveness. The resolution of the hostage issue and the administration of the Strip remain uncertain. Russia and Iran have taken advantage of the situation to strengthen their positions, leading to an expansion in the circle of those opposing Israel.
Topic:
Hamas, Armed Conflict, Hostage Crisis, October 7, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

54. External constraints: About-face in the Turkish position on Gaza

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
The Turkish position on Gaza was weak and lackluster in confronting the Israeli aggression on Gaza perhaps due to the external limits imposed on Turkish power.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Armed Conflict, 2023 Gaza War, and Constraints
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

55. The battle over shipping lanes tips toward the Houthis

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
The Houthis have succeeded throughout the period following the initiation of their military support for Gaza in disrupting commercial shipping passing through the Red Sea to countries they consider hostile; and the military operations of the US alliance inadvertently aided them in achieving their objective.
Topic:
Maritime Commerce, Houthis, Shipping, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Yemen, Palestine, Gaza, United States of America, and Red Sea

56. The Day After: Competing Visions for the Future of the Gaza Strip

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Proposals for Gaza's future post-war vary from direct reoccupation to resistance factions' control, with an intermediary suggestion of local authority under the Palestinian Authority, supported by Arabs. The pivotal factor is the resistance's ability to defeat the occupation.
Topic:
Governance, Reconstruction, Occupation, Hamas, Armed Conflict, Palestinian Authority, 2023 Gaza War, and Armed Resistance
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

57. The Lebanese Front: Assessing the Threat of All-Out War

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Indicators point to a heightened risk of war between Israel and Hezbollah, with Israel leading efforts to restore security in its northern region for resident return and to deter Hezbollah from its borders. However, high war costs and US opposition could limit escalation.
Topic:
Hezbollah, Armed Conflict, Escalation, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Lebanon, and United States of America

58. Israel and the Palestinian support fronts: Setting a new balance of deterrence

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Netanyahu insists on violating the rules of engagement established since 7 October 2023, relying on military solutions to achieve his political goals and Israel's strategic objectives. However, this can only be realised if the link between Palestinian resistance in Gaza and its external support fronts is severed.
Topic:
Hezbollah, Houthis, Hamas, Benjamin Netanyahu, Armed Conflict, 2023 Gaza War, and Rules of Engagement
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Yemen, Palestine, Gaza, and Lebanon

59. From Bandung to Hindutva: How the Palestine Question Shows India’s Alternative Foreign Policy Futures

Author:
Arjun Shankar
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Dr. Arjun Shankar, Assistant Professor of Culture and Politics in the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, explains how India's ethnonational discourse and abiding commitment to Global South solidarity are both products of the country's anti-colonial struggle but are now clashing in India's approach to the Palestine question.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Solidarity, Global South, Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, Ethnonationalism, and Hindutva
Political Geography:
India, Israel, and Palestine

60. The War on Gaza and Middle East Political Science

Author:
Marc Lynch, Ibrahim S. I. Rabaia, Fiona B. Adamson, and Alexei Abrams
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
This special issue of POMEPS Studies offers a platform for scholars to think through what feels like a moment of rupture for the Middle East, for Middle East Studies, and for long-standing assumptions about the region’s politics. This POMEPS collection originated as an open call for papers for scholars affected by or invested in these urgent issues, in an initial effort to give a platform and a voice to those in our network who have grappled with these trends. We kept the call intentionally broad, asking potential authors to reflect on the effects of October 7 and the Gaza War on politics or scholarship. As it turned out, most of the contributors wanted to talk about academic freedoms and the conditions of public discourse in their countries – perhaps because of how profoundly they felt this crisis, perhaps because of the availability of other platforms to discuss the war itself. The issues confronting our field have never been more urgent and the need for academic networks and institutions to rise up to defend it has never been greater.
Topic:
Civil Society, Diplomacy, Education, Genocide, Political Science, Institutions, Academia, Houthis, Forced Migration, Activism, October 7, 2023 Gaza War, and Frantz Fanon
Political Geography:
Iraq, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Yemen, Palestine, Gaza, Germany, Jordan, Czech Republic, and Gulf Nations