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102. The Seesaw Relationship between Turkey and Israel
- Author:
- Selin Nasi
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In our latest issue of Turkeyscope, Dr. Selin Nasi discusses how Erdogan has limited Turkey's relevance to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict by openly supporting Hamas in recent months.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Hamas, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
103. Comparing Israeli-Turkish Relations: The 1990s versus post-October 7
- Author:
- Jonathan Ghariani
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In our latest issue of Turkeyscope Dr. Jonathan Ghariani analyzes the changes in Turkey's approach to Israel since October 7, 2023 in contrast to the pre-Erdogan era led by Necmettin Erbakan.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, October 7, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
104. Antisemitism: The “New Normal” in Turkey
- Author:
- Betsy Penso
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In our latest issue of Turkeyscope, Adv. Betsy Penso explains how antisemitism has risen in recent months in Turkey since the outbreak of the war in Gaza. From the government to the media and online networks, virulent anti-Israel speech increasingly threatens Turkey's Jewish minority.
- Topic:
- Minorities, Jewish community, October 7, 2023 Gaza War, and Antisemitism
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
105. Exploring the Potential of Minilateralism for the Europe-Mediterranean Partnership
- Author:
- Roee Kibrik
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- IEMed/EuroMeSCo
- Abstract:
- The Mediterranean and Europe, as interconnected regions sharing geographical spaces and proximity, severe challenges, common interests and intertwined goals, present a compelling opportunity to explore minilateralism as a framework for fostering cooperation and developing resilience. This research examines the potential of minilateralism to contribute to the Europe-Mediterranean partnership, highlighting the rationale, objectives, potential areas of focus, and expected outcomes of promoting minilateral frameworks in this context. Two minilateral frameworks will be examined: Israel-Greece-Cyprus and Israel-Morocco-European Union (EU). Based on this examination, the research will discuss particular insights regarding these specific configurations, and general insights regarding characters, opportunities and challenges of minilateralism in the region as a way to foster the Europe-Mediterranean partnership.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, European Union, Partnerships, Resilience, and Minilateralism
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Israel, Greece, Morocco, Cyprus, and Mediterranean
106. The Nuclear Iran “Concept” Is Already Here: Time Is Short to Prevent Israel’s—and America’s—Next Calamitous Intelligence Failure
- Author:
- Jonathan Schachter
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Hudson Institute
- Abstract:
- Groupthink and unchallenged false assumptions about enemy capabilities and decision-making led to the disasters of the 1973 Yom Kippur War and the 2023 Hamas-led terrorist invasion of Israel. The lessons of these failures demand that Israel’s political and military leadership and their American counterparts immediately reconsider their assumptions about the Iranian nuclear threat to avoid an even costlier miscalculation.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Intelligence, Nuclear Weapons, October 7, and 1973 War
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
107. Gaming Israeli Nuclear Use: Pandora Unleashed
- Author:
- Henry Sokolski
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
- Abstract:
- With the continued fighting in Gaza, a nuclear rubicon of sorts has been crossed: Elected Israeli officials — a deputy minister and a ruling party member of Parliament—not only have publicly referenced Israel’s possession of nuclear weapons, but suggested how such weapons might be used to target Gaza. This is unprecedented. More recently, Iran directly attacked an Israeli-manned intelligence outpost in Iraq and publicized a staged missile strike against a mock Israeli air base. Iran also has inched within weeks of making several nuclear weapons and made its military ever more immune to first strikes against its key missile and nuclear facilities. Iran and its proxies also now have long-range, high-precision missiles that can easily reach key Israeli targets. None of these developments is positive. For decades, most security analysts assumed Israel’s undeclared nuclear weapons were only deployed to deter attacks and that Iran would not dare to attack Israel directly. The attached war game report, “Gaming Israeli Nuclear Use: Pandora Unleashed,” directly challenges these assumptions. The game starts in 2027 with Israeli intelligence reporting that Iran is mating nuclear warheads to its long-range missiles. This prompts Israel to ask Washington to collaborate in a conventional military strike against key Iranian nuclear facilities and missile bases. Not wanting to be drawn into a major war with Iran, the United States, however, demurs and instead offers Israel U.S. standoff hypersonic missiles. Several moves later, Israel, isolated and desperate, launches two nuclear strikes against Iran to which Iran replies with a nuclear strike of its own. The game raised several basic questions. Would Israel or Iran conduct further military nuclear operations? Might Israel target Tehran with nuclear weapons? Might Iran target Tel Aviv with nuclear arms? Would Russia or the United States be drawn into the war? These and other unknowns informed the game’s key findings. These included: 1. The strategic uncertainties generated after an Israeli-Iranian nuclear exchange are likely to be at least as fraught as any that might arise before such a clash. 2. Although Israel and Iran might initially avoid the nuclear targeting of innocents, such self-restraint is tenuous. 3. Multilateral support for Israeli security may be essential to deter Israeli nuclear use but will likely hinge on Israeli willingness to discuss regional denuclearization. 4. Little progress is likely in reducing Middle Eastern nuclear threats if the United States continues its public policy of denying knowledge of Israeli nuclear weapons.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons, Weapons, Nonproliferation, and War Games
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
108. Why the Biden Cease-fire Proposal Will Not End the Gaza War Despite UN Approval
- Author:
- Carl Conetta
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- The proposal that the Biden administration attributes to Israel does not promise an end to the war, much less Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. While claiming to support the proposal, Prime Minister Netanyahu also asserts that “we have maintained the goals of the war, first of them the destruction of Hamas.” Is this consistent with the proposal? It is. How?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Hamas, Ceasefire, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America
109. The Impact of the War in Gaza on Israel-Jordan Cooperation
- Author:
- Saud Al-Sharafat
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The Gaza war’s impact on Jordan has been significant and at times uncontrolled, with a primary focus on demands to halt all forms of “bilateral cooperation” with Israel. However, the implementation of the energy for water project is likely only a matter of time, although contingent on cessation of hostilities. The war in Gaza has cast a dark shadow over the promising water and energy cooperation projects between Jordan and Israel. Water and energy are among the most economically and politically sensitive sectors in contemporary Jordan due to the country’s chronic water shortage and the difficulty of securing energy sources for local use. Jordan imports more than 96 percent of its energy needs, with an annual import bill exceeding $3 billion, according to official statistics. The Gaza war has had a direct impact on Jordanian public opinion, with increasing demands that the country withdraws from all its commitments, treaties, and agreements with Israel and halt all forms of cooperation. So far, however, it appears these demands have disrupted only one project, Project Prosperity—or energy for water agreement—which is sponsored by the United Arab Emirates with U.S. approval. Although the project has been suspended, it will likely resume after the war ends, since both parties have an interest in this type of cooperation. Indeed, despite the current tensions, this type of coordination is almost inevitable given the respective situations of both countries, and as one of the most important means of interconnection and networking that can help mitigate armed crises and conflicts between them.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Water, Public Opinion, Energy, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Jordan
110. Israel and the ICJ: Comparing International Court Cases During the Gaza War
- Author:
- Alexander Loengarov
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The current cycle of legal actions involving Israel is unprecedented in scope and politicization, but governments are still better off engaging with the process and lodging their objections there than dismissing it outright. On July 19, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) will deliver an advisory opinion on the “legal consequences arising from the policies and practices of Israel in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem.” The opinion was requested by the UN General Assembly (UNGA) more than a year and a half ago—well before the Gaza war broke out—in the context of efforts to increase awareness of the Palestinian issue at various international forums, as well as more specific concerns about escalating “tensions and violence” with Israel. The timing of this week’s opinion might seem incongruous given how much has taken place since it was first requested in January 2023. Yet it is in keeping with a wartime trend in which more new cases are being brought before international courts, and pending cases are being rekindled and amplified. Distinguishing between these cases is instructive.
- Topic:
- Genocide, International Law, International Court of Justice (ICJ), and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza