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22. Shallow Ramparts: Air and Missile Defenses in the June 2025 Israel-Iran War
- Author:
- Sam Lair
- Publication Date:
- 10-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
- Abstract:
- There are two remarkable stories about defenses during the war between Israel and Iran in June 2025. One is the failure of Iran’s much-discussed air defense system; the other, the success of the Israeli missile defense system. This chapter begins with the poor Iranian performance before turning to the Israeli defensive efforts. Ultimately, the war underscored how fragile Iran’s air defenses were, how key air superiority was to Israeli strategy, and how strained the Israeli air and missile defense system was despite its impressive performance. The June 2025 war illustrates the difficulty of air and missile defense in modern high-intensity conflict, demonstrating challenges facing defenders and strategies for the offense.
- Topic:
- Security, Missile Defense, Armed Conflict, and Air Defense
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
23. Regional Terrorism Trends Before and After October 7
- Author:
- Suat Cubukcu, Eoin B. Healy, and Adam Blackwell
- Publication Date:
- 06-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- CTC Sentinel
- Institution:
- The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
- Abstract:
- The October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel triggered a rapid escalation in regional conflict and reshaped the operational landscape of Iran-backed violent non-state actors. Using data from the Global Terrorism Trends and Analysis Center’s GRID database, this article compares patterns of terrorist violence in the Middle East one year before and after the attack. The analyses reveal a dramatic rise in drone, rocket, and missile attacks—particularly by Hezbollah, the Houthis, and the Islamic Resistance in Iraq—against U.S., Israeli, and maritime targets. Despite the volume, these attacks caused limited casualties due to advanced U.S. and Israeli defenses, signaling a broader shift toward low-cost, high-frequency stand-off warfare, causing disruption over decisive outcomes. While Hezbollah and Hamas suffered major losses at the hands of Israeli forces, the Houthis emerged as Iran’s most active and disruptive proxy. The analysis underscores a post-October 7 reconfiguration of the proxy landscape and highlights the strategic limits of Iran’s indirect warfare and its eroded ability to deter direct Israeli attacks on Iran.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Hezbollah, Houthis, Hamas, Proxy Groups, Regional Security, October 7, and Non State Actors
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
24. Tehran’s Homeland Option: Terror Pathways for Iran to Strike in the United States
- Author:
- Matthew Levitt
- Publication Date:
- 08-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- CTC Sentinel
- Institution:
- The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
- Abstract:
- The 12-day Iran war may be over, but the threat of Iranian reprisal attacks now looms large, and will for the foreseeable future. European authorities exposed plots in Sweden and Germany even as the war was being waged, and Israeli authorities issued a warning over potential attacks in the United Arab Emirates a couple of weeks later, specifically citing heightened concerns in the wake of the war with Iran. Iranian operatives or their agents could also attempt to carry out attacks inside the United States, leveraging what U.S. counterterrorism officials have describe as a “homeland option” developed over years. Given the U.S. role in bombing the Fordow nuclear complex, it should not be a surprise that U.S. authorities quickly issued a terrorism advisory warning of potential Iranian plots in the homeland. Drawing on past cases of Iranian plots in the United States and elsewhere, this article explores the primary pathways available to Iran conduct or enable a terrorism act in the United States. These include deploying Iranian agents, criminal surrogates, terrorist proxies, or actively seeking to inspire lone offenders to carry out attacks within the homeland.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Armed Conflict, and Regional Security
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, and United States of America
25. Iran in the Israeli Calculus: What Comes Next?
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 07-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The Israeli-American war on Iran has not fully achieved its intended goals. While it may have caused significant damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities and gained relative advantage in armed confrontations, the underlying hostilities remain unresolved, escalating the risk of renewed military conflict.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Armed Conflict, Nuclear Energy, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Israel
26. The war on Iran: End of the battle is a prelude to the next round
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 07-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Israel launched a war on Iran to halt its nuclear project. Iran hit vital Israeli sites in response. Unable to act alone, Israel relied on U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Qatari mediation secured a ceasefire, but without resolving root causes, making future escalation likely.
- Topic:
- Armed Conflict, Escalation, Airstrikes, and Nuclear Energy
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Israel
27. The Pendulum Swings Back: Envisioning the Future Trajectory of an Increasingly Asymmetric Iran-Russia Defense Relationship
- Author:
- Jim Lamson and Hanna Notte
- Publication Date:
- 09-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
- Abstract:
- Key takeaways (1) Cooperation continues. Over the course of 2024 and spring 2025, defense cooperation between Iran and Russia continued. The countries’ adoption of the Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership capped a string of other activities, including numerous high-level political-military meetings and transfers of select defense technologies. Iran delivered Fath-360 ballistic missiles to Russia and continued to assist Russia’s UAV production. Most assistance, however, flowed from Russia to Iran, especially in the aerospace, ground, and space domains. (2) A year of upheaval. Silhouetted behind these general trends, a confluence of geopolitical, regional, and battlefield developments fueled a growing asymmetry in the defense relationship. The DPRK emerged as an increasingly important supporter of Russia’s war against Ukraine; Israel’s campaign against the “axis of resistance” and Iran itself ushered in a new era of strategic vulnerability for Iran; in spring 2025, the U.S. administration began to engage Moscow diplomatically, potentially affecting Russia’s calculus regarding cooperation with Iran, at least in the most sensitive areas; and finally, in mid-June, Israel (eventually joined by the United States) engaged in a short aerospace conflict with Iran. (3) A growing asymmetry in needs. Israel’s campaign against Iran and the “axis of resistance” damaged the country’s military-defense assets and exposed key shortcomings, forcing Iranian strategic planners back to the drawing board. Strategically more vulnerable, Iran’s preexisting appetite for Russian assistance in areas such as long-range strike, air and missile defenses, and naval denial has only grown further. For Russia, which expanded the local production of Shahed drones, diversified its sourcing of UAV components, and shifted to focus on other UAV designs, reliance on Iran has passed its peak. Though Russia may well remain interested in production technology for the Shahed-238 drone and its variants as well as Iran’s transfer of other drones and even missiles to enable more diverse strike packages, its dependence on Iran to meet battlefield needs in Ukraine is presently trending downward. (4) The pendulum swings back. While both partners likely retain an interest in sharing lessons from their respective military campaigns, and while a degree of institutional inertia may propel defense cooperation, we observe a shift toward an increasingly asymmetric partnership, with Iran far more dependent on Russia than vice versa. Full battle damage assessments from the Israel-Iran aerospace conflict, the trajectory of battlefield conditions in Ukraine, and the extent of Chinese assistance to both Russia and Iran, are among the factors that will determine how far the pendulum will swing back toward a more asymmetric Iran-Russia defense partnership. (5) Imagining different futures. Based on developments since 2024 that have affected Iran’s and Russia’s defense needs from each other, as well as the drivers and constraints shaping the defense relationship, we consider a continued strategic partnership to be the most likely future. Other futures—a limited military alliance, a full military alliance, or a breakup—are less likely, though not altogether inconceivable, assuming certain contingencies.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Asymmetric Relations
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Iran, and Middle East
28. Iran: A Report on the DACOR Bacon Foundation’s 2025 Annual Conference
- Author:
- Keith McCormick
- Publication Date:
- 11-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- American Diplomacy
- Institution:
- American Diplomacy
- Abstract:
- The DACOR Bacon House Foundation’s 2025 Annual Conference, held on September 12, focused on Iran. The conference brought together academics, former diplomats, and policy activists to analyze the new situation facing Iran in the Middle East after a string of military setbacks, and the prospects for diplomacy with the United States. A list of participants is appended to this article.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Demographics, Diplomacy, Environment, Human Rights, Sanctions, and Ideology
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and United States of America
29. Hezbollah Is Down But Not Out
- Author:
- Michael Jacobson and Matthew Levitt
- Publication Date:
- 11-2025
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Undermining the group in Lebanon requires targeting its networks abroad.
- Topic:
- Non State Actors, Hezbollah, and Proxy Groups
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Lebanon
30. Caution and Fear of a Crackdown: Iranian Kurdish Opposition Responses to the Israel-Iran Conflict
- Author:
- Wladimir van Wilgenburg
- Publication Date:
- 06-2025
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Iranian Kurdish opposition groups remain committed to regime change in Iran, but external and internal factors contributed to the caution with which they approached the recent conflict. In the immediate aftermath of Israel’s recent strikes on Iran and its calls for regime change, major Iranian Kurdish opposition groups issued several statements, condemning the Islamic Republic of Iran but not necessarily espousing the war’s aims. As opposition groups that have fought against the Islamic Republic for decades—Ayatollah Khomeini issued a fatwa for jihad against the Kurdish parties in Iran in 1979—each statement echoed a longstanding stance of the respective group. Nevertheless, the Iranian Kurdish parties responded to Israel’s calls for immediate regime change with caution and suspicion. Now that a ceasefire has been declared, they fear a crackdown in Kurdish areas of Iran in the aftermath of the conflict, in line with previous periods when Iranian Kurdish areas have become scapegoats for the regime.
- Topic:
- Regime Change, Domestic Politics, Kurds, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine