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1. The New Development Bank’s Contribution to the Energy Transition Process in the BRICS Countries (2016-2023)

Author:
Maria Elena Rodriguez, Rafaela Mello Rodrigues de Sá, Octávio Henrique Alves Costa de Oliveira, and Renan Guimarães Canellas de Oliveira
Publication Date:
12-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
BRICS Policy Center
Abstract:
Considering the growing relevance of the Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) in the task of financing the global energy transition process, it is important to understand the efforts of these institutions to establish projects aimed at reducing carbon emissions in the most diverse sectors of the economy, and especially in the energy sector. This document looks specifically at the role that the New Development Bank (NDB) plays in this process, presenting an overview of its loan portfolio and targets in terms of contributions to the energy transition process. The NDB, also known as the BRICS Bank, stands out in its institutional strategies in the area of Clean Energy, one of its operational objectives, setting a target for the year 2026 of directing 40% of all its financing to projects aimed at climate change, including operations that contribute to the energy transition (NDB, 2022a, p. 28).
Topic:
Development, Banks, BRICS, Energy Transition, and Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs)
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Iran, Indonesia, India, South Africa, Brazil, Ethiopia, Egypt, and United Arab Emirates

2. Economic implications for Europe of a potential reintegration of Iran into the world economy

Author:
Gabriel Felbermayr, Mahdi Ghodsi, Heider Kariem, Robert Stehrer, and Yoto V. Yotov
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
How would fundamental political change in Iran, leading to a democratic system with a free and rules-based economic order, affect Germany and the EU economically? In the event of change, sanctions could be scaled back, allowing Iran to rejoin the global economy. This study quantifies the economic effects of such a transformation. It neither advocates for nor legitimises the lifting or easing of sanctions under the current regime or without far-reaching and credible reforms that fully address the concerns underlying the sanctions currently in place. Using the newest available data and quantitative methods, the results indicate that lifting EU sanctions alone could raise Iran’s real GDP by more than 80% in the long run while generating moderate but economically meaningful gains for Germany and the EU of around 0.3-0.4% of GDP. These gains are driven by expanded trade, lower energy and input prices, and improved allocative efficiency. When sanctions removal is combined with plausible scenarios of productivity catch-up with Turkey or South Korea, Iran’s GDP would increase by 240-388% and the gains for Europe would increase further, underscoring the strong complementarity between trade integration and productivity growth. Moreover, Iran’s reintegration would reduce energy price volatility, improve the security of maritime trade routes, and lower migration pressures. Overall, the findings suggest that a negotiated transition and rules-based reintegration of Iran would generate substantial mutual economic benefits while contributing to regional and global stability.
Topic:
Markets, Political Economy, Foreign Direct Investment, Sanctions, European Union, Economy, Inflation, Energy, and Trade Integration
Political Geography:
Europe, Iran, and Germany

3. Irán entre protestas y geopolítica

Author:
Xavier Villar
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:
Análisis de las protestas en Irán surgidas en un contexto de fuerte inflación y depreciación del rial —que perdió cerca de la mitad de su valor frente al dólar en 2025— y que, tras iniciarse como una movilización de carácter económico encabezada por comerciantes y pequeños empresarios, derivaron rápidamente en expresiones de descontento político más amplio. Aunque las manifestaciones se han extendido a numerosas ciudades y han adquirido una notable visibilidad social, su escala y composición difieren de ciclos previos, como los de 2009 o 2019, y hasta ahora no se han producido deserciones significativas en las fuerzas de seguridad que permitan hablar de un cambio de régimen inminente. El artículo subraya además las dificultades para verificar cifras de víctimas debido al bloqueo informativo, matiza la idea de un rechazo político unánime al régimen y sitúa las protestas en un marco político-estratégico más amplio, marcado por la posición geográfica de Irán, sus recursos energéticos y la competencia internacional entre Estados Unidos y China.
Topic:
Regime Change, Sanctions, Economy, Protests, Inflation, Transatlantic Relations, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
China, Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

4. Netanyahu’s Long Game to Reorder the Middle East

Author:
Akram Zaoui
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
As the inspirator of the ongoing war in the Middle East, Netanyahu’s actions must be read through decades of political action. US participation in the war marks the apex of years of manoeuvring in Washington to reshape the region. Goals sought include obliteration of regional strategic threats and normalisation with Arab countries from a position of undisputable strength.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Normalization, Benjamin Netanyahu, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

5. The Evolution and Ramifications of the Iran-Saudi Rivalry Through Multiple Lenses: A Review of Mabon, Fraihat and Mohammad

Author:
Ahmet Furkan Özyakar
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
This review endeavors to identify key themes and critical perspectives discernible in the scholarship of Simon Mabon’s The Struggle for Supremacy in the Middle East: Saudi Arabia and Iran, Ibrahim Fraihat’s Iran and Saudi Arabia: Taming a Chaotic Conflict, and Talal Mohammad’s Iranian-Saudi Rivalry since 1979: In the Words of Kings and Clerics, who have meticulously investigated Iranian-Saudi relations in the Middle Eastern context. Since the Islamic Revolution of 1979, bilateral relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia have assumed paramount importance in elucidating the multifaceted political, religious, cultural, economic, and societal dynamics of the Middle East. The postrevolutionary trajectory brought a volte-face to relations, instigating a protracted period of rivalry and conflict spanning four decades, thereby catalyzing the escalation of conflicts across the Middle East. Both countries perceive each other as existential security threats, while concurrently aspiring for regional hegemony. Amidst this backdrop, seminal events such as Saudi Arabia’s support of Iraq during the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), the recalibration of the political landscape after the United States (US)-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, the reverberations of the Arab Spring, the execution of Nimr al-Nimr1 in 2016, and the Yemen Civil War have markedly intensified the discord in bilateral relations between Riyadh and Tehran. Although there have been short periods of restrained rapprochement and diplomatic overtures, the prevailing atmosphere of acrimony and relentless pursuit of dominance, both regionally and within the greater Islamic sphere, determine the framework of their relations. Consequently, pejorative labels such as “suspicion”, “infidel”, “enemy”, and “confrontation” often feature in describing the complicated dynamics characterizing Saudi-Iranian relations.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Hegemony, Book Review, Rivalry, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia

6. The Image of Imperial Russia as an Enemy in the Iranians’ Collective Memory

Author:
Saeed Khavarinejad
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
This research tried to uncover the historical factors that have instilled a deep-rooted distrust of Russia in the Iranians’ collective memory. The researcher employed a case study strategy to examine historical empirical data and analyzed the consequences of the conflicts between Persia/Iran and Imperial Russia through collective trauma theory. The research discovered that 1) the 9th–12th clashes and the Russo-Persian Wars in the 17th–19th centuries and their subsequent treaties of Gulistan, Turkmenchay, and later, Akhal, and 2) Imperial Russia’s interventions in Iran during Constitutional Revolution, including the shelling of the Iranian Parliament in 1911, threatening Iranian government by issuing two ultimatums in 1911, the occupation and atrocity against Iranians in Tabriz in 1909–1918, the shelling of the Holy Shrine in Mashhad in 1912, and occupying Iran during Persian Campaign in the First World War in 1914–1918, which later followed with Soviet occupation from 1941 to 1946 in World War II, were among the primary factors which led to distrust of Russia in Iranian collective memory to the present. The evidence for anti-Russian sentiments in Iranian collective memory was identified as contempt in historiographical and literary works, hatred in religious circles, and Russophobia and conspiracy theories among Iranian politicians. The author concluded that the image of Imperial Russia as an enemy in the collective memory of Iranians has been shaped by the transgenerational and lasting effects of the memory of historical events, making the feeling of victimization toward Russia an integral part of Iranian contemporary identity.
Topic:
Imperialism, War, History, Literature, Intervention, Collective Memory, and Distrust
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, and Middle East

7. Virtual Briefing Series | US Military Posture and Strike Options Against Iran

Author:
Kevin Donegan, Mick Mulroy, and Jason Campbell
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
On January 14, as the Iranian regime brutally cracked down on the largest street protests the country had seen in years, US President Donald Trump urged Iranians to persevere, posting on social media “help is on its way.” At the time, however, limited US military resources in the theater constrained the president’s military options. In the ensuing month since Trump’s post, the Pentagon has repositioned significant forces to the Middle East. This has led to wide speculation that the US is preparing for renewed strikes on Iran even as the Trump administration pursues diplomatic talks with the Iranian regime. To better understand the military planning and force posture dynamics shaping US policy choices, this briefing featured two Distinguished Military Fellows, former commander of the 5th Fleet VADM Kevin Donegan, USN (Ret.), and former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East Mick Mulroy. MEI Senior Fellow Jason Campbell moderated the discussion.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Armed Forces, Protests, Military, and Airstrikes
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

8. Virtual Briefing Series | Tehran’s Brewing Troubles

Author:
Zeina AlShaib, Alan Eyre, and Alex Vatanka
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
This briefing discussed the ongoing Iranian protests and severe government crackdown, which have rocked Iran since last week. The street demonstrations, sparked by the country’s economic nosedive and at times turning violent, are the largest in three years. As regime arrests and killings of protesters have intensified, US President Donald Trump has threatened to intervene, his remarks potentially taking on a more vivid significance in light of the American military extraction over the weekend of Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro — an ally of Tehran. This conversation featured Alan Eyre, Distinguished Diplomatic Fellow at the Middle East Institute. Eyre retired from the US Foreign Service in September 2023, after a 40-year government career, which included negotiating with the Iranian government over its nuclear program. The discussion also featured Alex Vatanka, Senior Fellow at MEI and author of the book The Battle of the Ayatollahs in Iran: The United States, Foreign Policy, and Political Rivalry since 1979.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economy, and Protests
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

9. Forever the Frenemies of the Middle East? Türkiye’s Regional Relations with Iran, 2002 to 2023

Author:
Cem Savaş
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
This article investigates the puzzle of Türkiye’s fluctuating relations with Iran since the Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power in 2002. Contrary to many scholars’ expectations, the AKP government’s relations with Iran have competition and rivalry rather than just cooperation. Having improved significantly in the early 2000s, the relations became tense following the Arab uprisings and Syria’s civil war. However, the relations between the two countries have included both cooperative and conflictual elements since 2016. This research argues that the most relevant level for analyzing Türkiye’s fluctuating foreign policy strategies toward Iran between 2002 and 2023 is regional. Using the regionalist approaches of Buzan and Wæver’s Regional Security Complex Theory (RSCT) and Lake and Morgan’s theory of regional orders, the article examines how the “local security externalities” of the Middle Eastern regional security complex (RSC) affect Türkiye-Iran regional relations by particularly focusing on speech acts of Turkish high-level foreign policy actors. By acknowledging the multi-layered nature of Middle Eastern politics, this study also considers the role of extra-regional actors and non-state armed groups in Turkish foreign policy attitudes toward Iran.
Topic:
International Relations, AKP, Regional Security, Regional Security Complex Theory (RSCT), Foreign Policy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Iran, Turkey, and Middle East

10. Conflicts and Trends to Watch in 2026

Author:
Jessica Anania, Vicka Heidt, Anna Tuohey, and Jessica M. Smith
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
Abstract:
Entering 2026, the global security landscape is defined by record-high levels of armed conflict, democratic backsliding, geopolitical fragmentation, and an accelerating climate crisis—dynamics unfolding alongside unprecedented cuts to foreign aid and development assistance. These converging pressures are reshaping conflict environments in ways that disproportionately endanger women and girls while eroding the systems meant to protect them, even as women remain central actors in humanitarian response, peacebuilding, and civic resistance. Women, Peace and Security: Conflicts and Trends to Watch in 2026 integrates gender-responsive analysis into conflict forecasting by drawing on insights from the Women, Peace and Security Conflict Tracker and expert consultations. This report identifies three cross-cutting trends expected to shape conflict dynamics in the year ahead: the increasing weaponization of hunger as a tactic of conquest and control, with devastating gendered consequences; political transitions that intensify repression, violence, and women’s exclusion at critical decision-making moments; and worsening climate shocks that compound displacement, insecurity, and economic loss for women and girls. The report also profiles 10 settings—Colombia, Ethiopia, Iran, Israel & Palestine, Mali, Pakistan, South Sudan, Sudan, Ukraine, and Venezuela—where these dynamics are likely to be especially acute in 2026. By centering gendered risks as early warning indicators of instability, this report addresses a critical gap in mainstream conflict analysis and offers policymakers, donors, multilateral institutions, and civil society leaders a more inclusive framework for anticipating crises, protecting civilians, and advancing more durable and inclusive peace and security outcomes.
Topic:
Security, Women, Armed Conflict, Inclusion, Democratic Backsliding, Women, Peace, and and Security (WPS)
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Iran, Sudan, Ukraine, Israel, Colombia, Palestine, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Mali, South Sudan, and Global Focus