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61. Optimizing Trade Flows and Investments Between India andCEMAC for Sustainable Industrialization in the Region

Author:
Stephane Atangana
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Despite significant economic potential, CEMAC countries face structural and institutionalchallenges limiting sector diversification and competitiveness. Key constraints include inadequateinfrastructure, regulatory barriers, limited technological access, and institutional uncertainty, all ofwhich restrict industrial growth and foreign direct investment (FDI) ( 1 ). Trade between India and CEMAC, largely focused on raw materials, particularly crude oil, remainsunderdeveloped compared to its full potential. Similarly, Indian FDI, mostly resource-driven, isinsufficiently utilized. This brief proposes concrete strategies—drawing from endogenous growthand international trade theories—to address these barriers, enhance bilateral cooperation,encourage technology transfers, and promote robust public-private partnerships. Such measurescould significantly boost sustainable industrialization and global competitiveness in CEMAC.
Topic:
Investment, Trade, Industrialization, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

62. Strengthening Local Governance: A Study of Competencies of Grama Panchayat Functionaries in Karnataka

Author:
Avani Kapur, Mallika Arora, Sidharth Santhosh, Dongrisab Nadaf, and Kripa Krishna
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
This report delves into individual and team-based competencies of different functionaries including PDOs, PS, DEOs, Accounts Assistants, Bill Collector, Water Operator, Sahayak. The team observed that individual competencies differ based on the functionary’s role in the GP. Moreover, certain roles such as those of PDOs and PSs are provided more training opportunities when compared to others such as BCs or DEOs. Systemic factors such as vacancies, workload distribution also result in some functionaries taking on more tasks outside their formal job descriptions, often without the necessary authorisations. Beyond individual competencies, it is essential GPs function effectively as a team. However, the team found that regular team meetings are uncommon, and responsibilities are decided based on deadlines rather than a consultative, structured approach. Additionally, ERs are rarely consulted on community needs, despite their critical role in governance. While a culture of kindness and empathy exists within GPs, it can be further strengthened to ensure functionaries remain motivated to serve citizens effectively. Based on these findings, the team offers a range of recommendations, aimed at improving both individual and team competencies. These suggestions are intended to serve as a starting point for the department to further investigate the challenges and design suitable administrative reforms. Recommendations include redesigning job charts, enhancing PDO training, improving learning resources for all functionaries and improving engagement with elected representatives. Additionally, to improve team competencies the authors recommend introducing off site training for the GP as a team, introducing regular team meetings, group reflections after major events and fostering cross-GP collaborations.
Topic:
Development, Governance, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

63. Innovative Approaches to Convergence in Karnataka’s Grama Panchayats: Insights from 5 Case Studies

Author:
Avani Kapur, Mallika Arora, Ritwik Shukla, Sidharth Santhosh, and Dongrisab Nadaf
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
This report is titled “Innovative Approaches to Convergence in Karnataka’s Grama Panchayats: Insights from 5 Case Studies“. It unpacks convergence practices in different programs such as Grama Panchayat Library and Information Centres, Koosina Mane, Solid Waste Management, Health Screening, and Perspective Planning. The first case study on Rural Libraries presents how community involvement and inclusivity can promote and build learning and reading practices in GPs. The second case study on Koosina Mane highlights how the state can promote rural women’s workforce participation while also supporting children’s nutritional needs at early stages of development. The third case study on Solid Waste Management highlights the importance of localising waste management practices and also supporting alternative livelihood sources for rural women by tapping into existing community structures. The fourth case study on Health Screening further pushes the role of GPs, along with other actors in the health department, in promoting positive health outcomes. Finally, the fifth case study on Perspective Planning shows how efficient data management practices can ease monitoring and promote transparency in delivery of welfare services. Thus, through these case studies, the authors have presented the key learnings from Karnataka’s innovative convergence practices and resource management which other states in the country can leverage and build upon. Their observations, spread across several months of immersive fieldwork, can further support RDPR’s vision to sustain these initiatives in the coming years.
Topic:
Governance, Rural, Innovation, and Resource Management
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

64. Viksit Bharat’s Engine: An Institutional Roadmap to a $ 30 Trillion Economy – The Macroeconomic Institutional Imperative

Author:
Ejaz Ghani
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
This paper looks at the “Institutional Efficacy Puzzle” that lies at the heart of India’s development challenge and provides a deep, systemic diagnostic of these key institutions—the Ministry of Finance (MoF), the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), financial regulators (SEBI, IRDAI), tax authorities (CBDT, CBIC), and crucial oversight bodies like the Finance Commission and the National Statistical Commission (NSC). It moves beyond analysing symptoms to uncover root causes embedded in flawed designs, capacity deficits, or political economy constraints. It then proposes a comprehensive, actionable roadmap for profound reform aimed at building the Resilient, Agile, Accountable, and Inclusive (RAAI) institutional foundations essential for transforming the Viksit Bharat vision into a tangible reality.
Topic:
Development, Political Economy, Economy, Institutions, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

65. The Green Investment Banker: A Strategic Manifesto for Financing India’s Net Zero and ‘Viksit Bharat’ Future

Author:
Ejaz Ghani
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
Financing a Green ‘Viksit Bharat’ India’s national goal of becoming a developed economy by 2047 is inextricably linked to achieving its Net Zero commitment by 2070. This twin ambition requires an investment of an estimated $10 trillion, primarily in green infrastructure and industrial modernization. This paper argues that this colossal sum cannot be met by public funds alone. The central economic challenge for India over the next two decades is to build the institutional capacity to mobilize and direct trillions of dollars in private and global capital towards this green transition.
Topic:
Development, Infrastructure, Economy, Investment, Banking, Green Economy, and Net Zero
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

66. Power Shifts and Knowledge Production: India’s Rise and Scholarship in International Relations

Author:
Aksel B. Hvid, Fabricio H. Chagas-Bastos, and Peter Marcus Kristensen
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
While much scholarly attention has been paid to the ways in which the rise of powers like China and India may challenge the fundamentals of the world order, there little empirically grounded research on the relationship between the socio-political conditions driving upward power shifts (“risingness”) and knowledge production, particularly outside the Western core of the International Relations discipline. We show in this article that Indian scholars are more likely to portray India as a “rising power” when publishing in mainstream journals than when contributing to Indian journals. Moreover, Indian scholars publishing in mainstream journals often engage with a discourse centred on Western reference points, specifically addressing the future of the liberal international order. By contrast, Indian scholars publishing in Indian journals focus on issues relevant to the South Asian context, frequently emphasising India’s non-Western roots. Finally, while contributions to mainstream journals tend to frame India’s rising status predominantly from a Western, particularly American, perspective, contributions to Indian journals are more deeply rooted in India’s rich intellectual traditions.
Topic:
International Relations, Sociology, Knowledge Production, and Rising Powers
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

67. Global Public Opinion and the Growth of Right-Wing Populism

Author:
Richard Wike
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
The “super year” of elections in 2024 was unprecedented in voting history, with citizens in more than 60 countries going to the polls. While it was generally a difficult year for incumbents, it was a strong one for challengers, including several from the populist right. Leveraging economic frustrations, divisive cultural issues, and anger at a political class perceived to be out of touch with ordinary citizens, right-wing populist leaders and parties made gains at the ballot box in several nations, building on the growing success they have seen in recent years.1 One of the most high-profile results in 2024 was Republican Donald Trump’s defeat of Democrat Kamala Harris in the United States presidential election, which returned the leader of the populist “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) movement to the White House after four years of Demo- cratic control. Right-wing populists also gained ground in European parlia- mentary elections. Austria’s Freedom Party, for example, had its best election result ever. The Alternative for Germany Party became the first far-right political party to win a state election in the country since World War II. And even though the cordon sanitaire—a bargain among political parties to keep the far right out of governing coalitions—ultimately kept Marine Le Pen’s National Rally out of power in France, the party nonetheless increased the number of seats it holds in the National Assembly. Parties on the right did well outside Europe and the United States too. For example, El Salvador’s incumbent President Nayib Bukele won reelection with over 80 percent of the vote, buoyed by strong support for his crackdown on criminal gangs. In Indonesia, Prabowo Subianto won the presidential election amid public concerns about his human rights record. And—though forced to form a coalition government for the first time—Indian Prime Min- ister Narendra Modi won a third consecutive victory, and his Bharatiya Janata Party, which captured 240 of 543 seats in the Lok Sabha, remains a dominant force in the country’s politics.
Topic:
Public Opinion, Elections, Populism, and Right-Wing Politics
Political Geography:
India, Global Focus, and United States of America

68. From the Belt and Road to Make in India: A Comparative Assessment of Global Economic Engagement

Author:
Ferhat Çağrı Aras
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Novus Orbis: Journal of Politics & International Relations
Institution:
Department of International Relations, Karadeniz Technical University
Abstract:
China and India have emerged as two of the most influential actors shaping contemporary debates on economic development, governance models, and global economic transformation. As leading emerging economies facing similar structural pressures yet pursuing markedly different development paths, their experiences provide valuable insights into alternative strategies of growth, regional development, and global economic integration. Within this context, this study aims to explore how China and India differ in their development strategies with particular attention to governance structures, regional development policies, and modes of global economic engagement. Drawing on a qualitative comparative research design, the analysis is based on document analysis and qualitative content analysis of official policy documents, development plans, and secondary academic sources. The comparative assessment is structured around three core criteria: governance and planning mechanisms, regional development strategies aimed at managing spatial inequalities, and approaches to global economic integration, with particular emphasis on Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Make in India program. Applying a consistent set of analytical dimensions to both cases allows for a systematic and conceptually balanced comparison. The findings suggest that China’s development strategy is shaped by a centralized, state-led governance model emphasizing long-term planning, large-scale infrastructure investment, and infrastructure-driven global engagement. In contrast, India’s development approach reflects a more decentralized and market-oriented model prioritizing regulatory reform, foreign direct investment, and partnership-based integration into global value chains. Rather than advancing normative evaluations, the study highlights how distinct governance logics produce different strengths and constraints under comparable global conditions. The article contributes to the literature on comparative development by offering a conceptually consistent analysis of China and India that moves beyond descriptive policy narratives. By linking governance structures to regional development strategies and global economic engagement, the study provides original insights into alternative development pathways among emerging economies in the Global South.
Topic:
Development, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Economic Engagement, and Global South
Political Geography:
China, South Asia, and India

69. India’s Future Strategic Choices: Complications of Mass

Author:
Richard M. Rossow
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Leading up to the 2023 G20 summit in New Delhi, the Indian government put up billboards of Prime Minister Narendra Modi across the city. By one count, there were almost 1,000 signs and banners in the 12-kilometer stretch between the airport and U.S. President Joe Biden’s hotel highlighting India’s accomplishments, aspirations, and vision under Modi’s leadership.1 When asked about the billboards, India’s G20 coordinator responded, “We haven’t done advertising. We’re doing branding.”2 But this branding exercise was not merely intended to highlight India’s leadership role in a major international summit; it also sought to assert India’s leadership among the G20 countries that are less wealthy but large and fast growing. Quite purposively, India gathered more than 100 countries for the Voice of the Global South Summit the week before the G20 summit, where Modi declared the importance for India of “voicing the concerns of the Global South on the agenda of a significant platform like G-20.”3 As the concept of a coalition of Global South countries has emerged in recent years, India’s efforts to bolster its own brand as the vanguard of the Global South have accelerated. But India’s response to a new international order reflects an old strategy. In March 1947, on the eve of Indian independence, India hosted the first Asian Relations Conference, bringing together a diverse range of countries, including China, Indonesia, Egypt and the Arab League, Australia, and many of the Soviet republics. India hosted the conference during a period of geopolitical transformation, as countries around the world grappled with the aftermath of World War II and an emerging process of decolonization. Jawaharlal Nehru, then vice president of the Viceroy’s Executive Council, described the moment of the conference as an “age of transition.” He argued, “One of the notable consequences of the European domination of Asia has been the isolation of the countries of Asia from one another,” but “as that domination goes, the walls that surrounded us fall down and we look at each other again and meet as old friends long parted.”4
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
China, South Asia, and India

70. China Trying to Strengthen Dialogue with India

Author:
Marcin Przychodniak
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
China sees India as its main rival in Asia. However, the Chinese authorities are maintaining a dialogue with the Indian government, recently even signalling a conciliatory attitude. In this way, they want to prevent an escalation in bilateral relations and try to influence India’s relations with the U.S. and the European Union in a way that is beneficial to China. Although China’s attempts to strengthen dialogue with India are tactical in nature, even a short-term improvement in bilateral relations poses a challenge for the EU. Attempts to reduce Europe’s dependence on China, in which India is to play an important role, are now in question.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
China, Europe, South Asia, India, Asia, and United States of America

71. Decolonising the Knowledge System in India

Author:
Kishore Singh
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
India International Centre (IIC)
Abstract:
In 1835, T. B. Macaulay, Law Member of the Council of the Governor-General of India, wrote a ‘Minute on Education’ in which he stated, ‘a single shelf of a good European library was worth the whole native literature of India and Arabia’ (1835: 107). Later in the same document he expressed the thought, We must at present do our best to form a class who may be interpreters between us and the millions whom we govern—a class of persons Indian in blood and colour, but English in tastes, in opinions, in morals and in intellect. To that class we may leave it to refine the vernacular dialects of the country, to enrich those dialects with terms of science borrowed from the Western nomenclature, and to render them by degrees fit vehicles for conveying knowledge to the great mass of the population (ibid.: 115). Ever since, Western education has become profoundly engraved in Indian mindsets. Its hegemony over academia and disciplines of education in India remains unabated. Being educated in westernised education, ideally in western universities, continues to be highly esteemed among Indians. ‘Western knowledge superiority syndrome’ is still very visible in the form of a continued, even reinforced, superiority of the occidental knowledge system. India needs to discard it by casting off the colonial mindset and devising a knowledge system inspired by her own traditions in education and her philosophical and spiritual heritage. The epistemological foundation of India’s knowledge system, with highest respect for spirituality and intellectual pursuits, provides the prism for decolonising the knowledge system, comprehensively covering all disciplines, fields of knowledge and education systems. The writings of a very large number of renowned Western intellectuals, in tandem with those of eminent Indian thinkers, who acclaimed India’s philosophical traditions and spiritual heritage, are invaluable for edifying the knowledge system which is truly Indian, and which accords supremacy to spiritual and moral values in life as against materialistic pursuits. As such, revivification of India’s traditions in education makes it imperative to weed out the current phenomenon of commodification of knowledge or ‘edu-business’ since allowing education (vidya) to be made business (vyapar) is an affront to India’s spiritual heritage and her traditions where knowledge is free and heads are held high. The challenges in decolonising India’s knowledge system are compounded by the ‘platform Imperialism’ of our digital age, where, as John Naisbitt aptly remarked, ‘we are drowning in information but starved for knowledge’ (1982: 24). Digital technologies in education—‘edu-tech’ and especially Artificial Intelligence—erode ‘meditative thinking’ and are dehumanising in many ways. Their deleterious implications for the Indian knowledge system require careful consideration.
Topic:
Education, Decolonization, Knowledge Systems, and Digital Technologies
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

72. Mid-Year Review of the Indian Economy 2024–25

Author:
Chetan Ghate, Prakash Athare, Gautam Kumar Das, Sandhya Garg, M. Rahul, and Sukhdeep Singh
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
India International Centre (IIC)
Abstract:
The Indian economy is currently the fifth largest economy in the world, with a nominal gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025 expected to be US$4.27 trillion, according to the report ‘World Economic Outlook: Policy Pivot, Rising Threats’ by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).1 In FY 2023–24, the economy grew at a rate of 8.2 per cent, in real terms, following high growth rates in the previous two years (9.7 per cent in FY 2021–22, and 7 per cent in FY 2022–23). The quick rebound in growth after COVID–19 is depicted in Figure 1.1, which plots RGDP (real GDP) in India from Q1 FY 2011–12 to Q1 FY 2024–25. Figure 1.1 shows that after the sharp contraction in growth in Q1 FY 2020–21 (-23.1 per cent) in real GDP, growth became positive in Q3 FY 2020–21, and has averaged 5.1 per cent between Q2 FY 2020–21 and Q1 FY 2024–25.2 The swift recovery was aided by strong private consumption and a government push on infrastructure investment. In this mid-year review of FY 2024–25, we take stock of the performance of the Indian economy relative to earlier projections. While part of the slowdown is due to base-effects, there is a decline in the momentum of many high frequency indicators such as goods and services tax (GST) collections, auto sales, fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sales, corporate tax collections and credit growth, as can be seen in Table A.4 of the Appendix. We examine sectoral trends in agriculture, industry and services. At the aggregate level, we analyse trends in unemployment, inflation, the external sector and sovereign debt. We intersperse long-term analysis to study secular trends, along with analysis done at the business cycle frequency—monthly, or quarterly—a new perspective in the mid-year review analysis. Our analysis draws on ongoing academic research by the author(s). Our main conclusion is that while the high-frequency data is mixed (with a possible revival in some indicators in October 2024), there are several signs that growth is moderating. Overall real GDP growth in FY 2024–25 is likely to be within 6–7 per cent, although possibly towards the middle of this range. Our analysis suggests that the output gap is closed. This could be one reason to expect slow growth. A correction in credit growth, which was running much higher than nominal GDP growth, will also lead to slower growth.4 Liquidity conditions have also tightened. We estimate that it took three years for the output gap to close after COVID–19, in March 2023. As inflation has slowed down from peaks seen during COVID–19, real policy rates based on a Fiscal Year to Date (FYTD) inflation average of 4.8 per cent are about 1.7 per cent. This is within the estimated range of 1.4–1.9 per cent real neutral interest rate for Q4 FY 2023–24 as per Reserve Bank of India (RBI) academic research. The policy repo rate of 6.5 per cent is below the peak of previous rate hike cycles. Some interest rate-sensitive sectors like real estate are doing well, suggesting that monetary policy may not be restrictive. On the fiscal side, while the Centre’s fiscal deficit increased sharply during COVID–19, this occurred partly because of better transparency in the fiscal accounting of food subsidies. As shown in Figure A.4 in the Appendix, the public sector borrowing requirement (as a percentage of GDP) is expected to ease in FY 2024–25 to its lowest level since FY 2018–19. One upside risk to this is that Public Sector Undertaking (PSU) borrowings may pick up. It is also noteworthy that government capex spending was weak in the first five months of the year. Central government capex needs to grow by more than 50 per cent in H2 (second half of the year) to reach the Budget Estimates (BE). An open question is why government capex was low at the time of writing this paper. One possible explanation is capacity constraints; another potential explanation is the role of centre and state elections in slowing capex spending since the beginning of FY 2024–25. In the Q2 FY 2024–25 data, to be released at the end of November 2024, both slower growth in the industrial sector and slower consumption demand will become important contributing factors to slowing growth.5 An open question is whether the slowdown is the beginning of a sustained downward trend in growth, or a cyclical slowdown. This paper concludes by suggesting some important avenues for structural reform.
Topic:
GDP, Economy, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, and Consumer Behavior
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

73. India-Russia Relations in Troubled Times: Steady but Stagnating

Author:
Aleksei Zakharov
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
This paper examines the trajectory of India-Russia relations post-February 2022. The war in Ukraine emerged as a significant challenge for bilateral ties, presenting new obstacles to political and diplomatic relations and intensifying the previous difficulties in developing economic cooperation. Moscow and New Delhi have demonstrated divergent approaches to the advancement of their strategic partnership. While Russia has rushed into reinventing the old friendship with India, the latter has acted with greater discretion. New Delhi has demonstrated a nuanced approach to navigating the Russia-Ukraine conflict, staying on good terms with Moscow and the West. India’s record imports of Russian crude and other commodities, at times in defiance of Western sanctions, have allowed for a considerable boost in bilateral trade. While this “oil connection” may benefit both the Indian and Russian economies, it should not be misperceived as a leap forward in partnership. The structural challenges appear to still prevent the two sides from reinvigorating the economic ties. Furthermore, their geopolitical understanding is waning, and their defense cooperation is currently in a state of limbo. As long as the war in Ukraine persists, India seems to be prioritizing maintaining the status quo in its relationship with Russia over pursuing new initiatives. This may help to prevent the two sides from drifting apart too far in the near term but is unlikely to lead to any substantive progress in their relationship.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, Vladimir Putin, and Narendra Modi
Political Geography:
Russia, South Asia, and India

74. India Votes 2024: A resurgent Hindu nationalism sets the stage for the upcoming elections, driving communal violence

Author:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
On 22 January 2024, Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurated the Ram temple in Ayodhya at the site where the Babri mosque once stood, marking the unofficial start of the general elections campaign by his party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).1 The construction of the temple, which had served as a rallying cry for Hindu nationalists since the mosque’s demolition by a Hindu mob, stirred up sentiments of Hindu pride across the country, with the BJP leading the celebrations.2 On the other hand, the principal opposition party, the Indian National Congress (INC), boycotted the ceremony, accusing the BJP of politicizing religion.3 The fanfare surrounding the inauguration also overlooked the temple’s deadly origins, prompting concern over the turn toward majoritarianism in Indian society.4 The Babri mosque, constructed under the reign of the Mughal emperor Babar, was believed to have stood upon the birthplace of the Hindu Lord Ram, making it a point of contention between India’s Hindu and Muslim communities for nearly two centuries.5 Following nationwide mobilization by senior BJP leaders to reclaim the Ram Janmabhoomi (birthplace), a Hindu mob demolished the Babri Masjid on 6 December 1992.6 In the years since, the Ram Mandir (temple) remained a focal point of the Hindu nationalist movement, with the BJP at its forefront. A 2019 Supreme Court judgment awarding the disputed land to the Hindu applicants, finding they possessed a better title, ultimately paved the way for the temple’s construction, even as the court condemned the mosque’s demolition by the mob as an illegal act.7 The values of secularism and religious tolerance enshrined in India’s Constitution have long struggled against the realities of its demographics, where Hindus, comprising around 80% of the population, form the overwhelming majority.8 The gradual rise of the BJP, which views India foremost as a Hindu rashtra (nation), further increased the strain on these principles while also emboldening more radical Hindutva (Hindu nationalist) groups within the country.9 Among these is the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), a right-wing Hindu paramilitary group that organized the Babri Masjid’s demolition.10 The BJP has strong ideological and organizational ties with the RSS; Modi himself began his political career as a religious volunteer with the group.11 The mainstreaming of Hindutva politics under the BJP has increased tensions between Hindus and religious minorities, sparking a resurgence in communal violence. India’s Muslim community, which is among the world’s largest Muslim populations, has borne the brunt of this violence. With the BJP galvanizing its supporters around the cause of Hindu nationalism ahead of the 2024 elections, the second part of ACLED’s India Elections Special Issue focuses on increased religious polarization as a driver for political violence across India.
Topic:
Political Violence, Elections, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and Hindu Nationalism
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

75. A Palestinian Gandhi or an Israeli de Gaulle? Why the Context of Violence Matters

Author:
Sharif Elmusa
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:
School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:
Questioning why there hasn’t been a Palestinian Gandhi or Mandela ignores the history and context in which Palestinian resistance occurs, especially the abiding violence visited on the Palestinians since 1917
Topic:
Colonialism, Violence, BDS, Mahmoud Abbas, Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, Nelson Mandela, and Charles de Gaulle
Political Geography:
Middle East, India, Israel, South Africa, Palestine, and West Bank

76. Labour market inequality in two Asian giants Indonesia and India compared

Author:
Kunal Sen
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
We examine the nature of labour market inequality in Indonesia and India, using a common conceptual approach drawing from the job ladder framework. In the framework, we differentiate between self-employment and wage-informal and between formal, upper tier informal, and lower tier informal jobs. We find that both countries have a large proportion of workers in lower tier jobs, though the importance of wage-employment is larger in Indonesia. There are more workers in formal wage-employment in Indonesia than India. There are also sharp disparities in the earnings of workers in different tiers of the labour market in Indonesia and India, and there is limited evidence of convergence of the earnings of the lower tier informal workers to that of formal workers, at least for Indonesia. We also find that gender and educational level are important correlates of work status in both countries. Females and less educated workers occupy the lower tiers of the labour markets in the two countries.
Topic:
Employment, Inequality, Economy, Labor Market, and Informal Economy
Political Geography:
South Asia, Indonesia, India, and Asia

77. What if…? 12 Dragon King scenarios for 2028

Author:
Florence Gaub
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
At first glance, this publication appears to be a collection of Early Warning essays – they are, to some extent, but they should not be exclusively read as such. Conventional Early Warning systems have a much shorter time horizon – normally hours, perhaps months at most – than these scenarios, and they are solely mitigation mechanisms, that is to say they provide no insight into how the event they are warning of can be avoided. They are thus not an intellectual thought exercise, but solely an alarm bell. Our Dragon Kings in this volume provide insight into how they can be avoided, but they also challenge our assumptions in more ways than one. They are therefore awareness-raisers no matter how credible or plausible you will find them. Just reading them will have a readiness-increasing effect. (In fact, the more absurd you find them, the more pronounced this is because your mind will learn more when the emotion they generate is greater.) These scenarios can become even more useful, however, if you use them for simulation exercises in a team. You can use them as a blueprint for a wider scenario exercise, whether one wishes to adopt a blue or red team approach to them, and ask questions such as: how could this have been prevented, what would have to be done? What are alternative pathways of this scenario that are even worse, and how can we prevent those? The most important aspect is that every exercise of this kind must lead to some concrete policy steps. Merely thinking about improbable futures is never enough – doing something about them is what makes them a useful policy-tool. In that case, they lead to active, rather than passive, engagement with the content, foster collaboration, encourage innovation, practice decision-making, provide a space for failure and experimentation with alternative courses of action. It is precisely because of this that scenarios are a common feature in military education, but they work just as well in any other strategic context – provided, time and space is made for it. If yes, they contribute to increasing preparedness and readiness, and accelerate the response time to surprise. What’s more, generally engaging in fringe thinking about the future will strengthen these capabilities no matter what kind of surprise eventually occurs. Much like how vaccines teach the immune system, disruptive thinking strengthens our neural networks, making us more resilient for extreme situations.
Topic:
NATO, Natural Disasters, Elections, Crisis Management, Coup, UN Security Council, Biological Weapons, Resilience, Arctic Council, and Readiness
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Iraq, Europe, India, Taiwan, Latin America, Nigeria, and Tunisia

78. The Security Side of Gulf Visions. Adapting Defence to the Connectivity Age

Author:
Eleanora Ardemagni
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
The GCC states are adapting defence strategies to the challenges raised by their “Visions”, their post-hydrocarbon national plans. Far from being just economic programmes, the Visions are broad national transformation platforms displaying also a security dimension, and with many security implications. New cities and industrial poles, infrastructures, mega events and tourism raise unprecedented security risks, at which the GCC states are answering through a combination of economic-oriented foreign policy, multipolar international alliances, and ambitions towards “defense autonomisation”. What are the Visions’ security dimensions and implications, and how does the post-oil path affect and reshape foreign policies? This Report analyses how GCC states are adapting deterrence and defence tools to the connectivity age, navigating a troubled neighbourhood of both conventional and asymmetric threats. In a central but more vulnerable Gulf, how may the EU and NATO accommodate transformations in GCC states’ defense policies, postures, and means, to support their own security?
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Gulf Cooperation Council, and Strategic Planning
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, India, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

79. Moving Targets. Trends in Japan’s Foreign and Security Policies

Author:
Axel Berkofsky and Giulia Sciorati
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
In December 2022, Japan announced it would drastically increase its defence budget by 2027. The decision came as a wake-up call for the whole region: Japan was gearing up for a world of heightened tensions and rivalry in the Indo-Pacific Region. This Report analyses the present and future of Japan’s security and defence policies. Within the context of a rising China, Tokyo has broadened its defence ties with the US, India, Australia, and Taiwan. However, China remains its biggest trading partner, meaning Tokyo's policymakers are charged with the task and challenge of striking a balance between defence policies and business and trade relations with China.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, ASEAN, Influence, Defense Spending, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Japan, India, Taiwan, Australia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

80. The Sky Is Not the Limit. Geopolitics and Economics of the New Space Race

Author:
Alessandro Gili
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
Space is a contested domain for its very nature and today it is evidently becoming an increasingly important enabler of economic and military power. An increasing number of actors, infrastructures and technologies deployed in space also raises concerns for safety and security, especially in cyberspace. Many countries are striving to achieve space capabilities and autonomous access to space, and this is having a tremendous geopolitical impact, especially since space is emerging as an increasingly critical military and strategic domain. The development of the new space economy, which is increasingly involving the private sector and many industrial actors and services, will also be a game changer for the international economy. The space race likewise implies disruptive technologies that could contribute massively to the energy and digital transitions, accelerating solutions that could benefit humanity. A new international governance system for space is therefore needed urgently, considering that the current rules are no longer able to respond to a sector evolving at such a rapid pace. Which actors are leading the race? Which economic sectors could benefit the most and what could the new space economy mean for the world? How is space emerging as a military domain against a backdrop of increasing international tensions? What would a new system of global governance for space look like?
Topic:
Economics, Politics, Infrastructure, Geopolitics, Regulation, and Energy Security
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, India, Italy, Global Focus, United States of America, and Space