Political Geography: India / Publication Year: within 5 Years

51. Deterioration of relations between the US and India

Author:: Patryk Kugiel
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:: The imposition by Donald Trump’s administration of 50% tariffs on goods from India, a tightened migration policy, as well as the strengthening of US cooperation with Pakistan, have all led to the most serious crisis in Indian-American relations in 25 years. Although both sides will try to ease tensions and return to normal cooperation, the shift in US policy has undermined India's trust in the US. As a result, India will be more willing to cooperate with other partners, including the BRICS countries. It will be important for the EU to strengthen its cooperation with India in order to try to prevent a deeper anti-Western drift in Indian policy.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, European Union, Donald Trump, and Migration Policy
Political Geography:: Pakistan, South Asia, India, North America, and United States of America

52. Reluctant but compelled: the inevitable divorce of India and Russia

Author:: Jakub Benedyczak and Patryk Kugiel
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:: Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to India on December 4-5 of this year strengthened the Russian-Indian partnership, but it will not reverse India's long-term trend of drifting away from Russia. This will be unaffected by attractive arms and energy offers from Russia or Donald Trump’s aggressive policy towards India. The visit boosted Russia's prestige but did not bring tangible benefits. How rapidly Indo-Russian relations weaken will depend on the development of the Russian-Chinese alliance and India's closer cooperation with the EU.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, European Union, Partnerships, and Alliance
Political Geography:: Russia, South Asia, and India

53. India’s Digital Transformation: Building Inclusive Infrastructure through DPI

Author:: Yoon Jae Ro
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: India is undergoing a major digital transformation through its government-backed Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI), which has notably enhanced financial inclusion and made public services more accessible. Key innovations like digital IDs and mobile payment systems have helped millions. Yet, gaps in digital access persist, indicating the need for targeted efforts—especially in underserved areas. This opens up valuable opportunities for South Korea and India to collaborate, combining their strengths in technology to bridge these divides and support inclusive digital growth.
Topic:: Infrastructure, Economic Growth, Innovation, Inclusion, and Digital Transformation
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

54. India's Infrastructure Development and Korea-India Cooperation

Author:: Jeong Gon Kim
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: As the Indian government continues to expand investment in infrastructure, infrastructure development not only holds significant market potential but also serves as a crucial factor supporting Korean companies' entry into the Indian market. This report examines the infrastructure development plans of the Indian government, regional development needs, and surveys of Korean companies operating in India. It proposes implications for identifying the direction, key sectors, and regions for Korea-India infrastructure development cooperation, along with policy measures.
Topic:: Development, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, Asia, and South Korea

55. Mid-Year Review of the Indian Economy 2024–25

Author:: Chetan Ghate, Prakash Athare, Gautam Kumar Das, Sandhya Garg, M. Rahul, and Sukhdeep Singh
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: India International Centre (IIC)
Abstract:: The Indian economy is currently the fifth largest economy in the world, with a nominal gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025 expected to be US$4.27 trillion, according to the report ‘World Economic Outlook: Policy Pivot, Rising Threats’ by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).1 In FY 2023–24, the economy grew at a rate of 8.2 per cent, in real terms, following high growth rates in the previous two years (9.7 per cent in FY 2021–22, and 7 per cent in FY 2022–23). The quick rebound in growth after COVID–19 is depicted in Figure 1.1, which plots RGDP (real GDP) in India from Q1 FY 2011–12 to Q1 FY 2024–25. Figure 1.1 shows that after the sharp contraction in growth in Q1 FY 2020–21 (-23.1 per cent) in real GDP, growth became positive in Q3 FY 2020–21, and has averaged 5.1 per cent between Q2 FY 2020–21 and Q1 FY 2024–25.2 The swift recovery was aided by strong private consumption and a government push on infrastructure investment. In this mid-year review of FY 2024–25, we take stock of the performance of the Indian economy relative to earlier projections. While part of the slowdown is due to base-effects, there is a decline in the momentum of many high frequency indicators such as goods and services tax (GST) collections, auto sales, fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sales, corporate tax collections and credit growth, as can be seen in Table A.4 of the Appendix. We examine sectoral trends in agriculture, industry and services. At the aggregate level, we analyse trends in unemployment, inflation, the external sector and sovereign debt. We intersperse long-term analysis to study secular trends, along with analysis done at the business cycle frequency—monthly, or quarterly—a new perspective in the mid-year review analysis. Our analysis draws on ongoing academic research by the author(s). Our main conclusion is that while the high-frequency data is mixed (with a possible revival in some indicators in October 2024), there are several signs that growth is moderating. Overall real GDP growth in FY 2024–25 is likely to be within 6–7 per cent, although possibly towards the middle of this range. Our analysis suggests that the output gap is closed. This could be one reason to expect slow growth. A correction in credit growth, which was running much higher than nominal GDP growth, will also lead to slower growth.4 Liquidity conditions have also tightened. We estimate that it took three years for the output gap to close after COVID–19, in March 2023. As inflation has slowed down from peaks seen during COVID–19, real policy rates based on a Fiscal Year to Date (FYTD) inflation average of 4.8 per cent are about 1.7 per cent. This is within the estimated range of 1.4–1.9 per cent real neutral interest rate for Q4 FY 2023–24 as per Reserve Bank of India (RBI) academic research. The policy repo rate of 6.5 per cent is below the peak of previous rate hike cycles. Some interest rate-sensitive sectors like real estate are doing well, suggesting that monetary policy may not be restrictive. On the fiscal side, while the Centre’s fiscal deficit increased sharply during COVID–19, this occurred partly because of better transparency in the fiscal accounting of food subsidies. As shown in Figure A.4 in the Appendix, the public sector borrowing requirement (as a percentage of GDP) is expected to ease in FY 2024–25 to its lowest level since FY 2018–19. One upside risk to this is that Public Sector Undertaking (PSU) borrowings may pick up. It is also noteworthy that government capex spending was weak in the first five months of the year. Central government capex needs to grow by more than 50 per cent in H2 (second half of the year) to reach the Budget Estimates (BE). An open question is why government capex was low at the time of writing this paper. One possible explanation is capacity constraints; another potential explanation is the role of centre and state elections in slowing capex spending since the beginning of FY 2024–25. In the Q2 FY 2024–25 data, to be released at the end of November 2024, both slower growth in the industrial sector and slower consumption demand will become important contributing factors to slowing growth.5 An open question is whether the slowdown is the beginning of a sustained downward trend in growth, or a cyclical slowdown. This paper concludes by suggesting some important avenues for structural reform.
Topic:: GDP, Economy, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, and Consumer Behavior
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

56. Decolonising the Knowledge System in India

Author:: Kishore Singh
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: India International Centre (IIC)
Abstract:: In 1835, T. B. Macaulay, Law Member of the Council of the Governor-General of India, wrote a ‘Minute on Education’ in which he stated, ‘a single shelf of a good European library was worth the whole native literature of India and Arabia’ (1835: 107). Later in the same document he expressed the thought, We must at present do our best to form a class who may be interpreters between us and the millions whom we govern—a class of persons Indian in blood and colour, but English in tastes, in opinions, in morals and in intellect. To that class we may leave it to refine the vernacular dialects of the country, to enrich those dialects with terms of science borrowed from the Western nomenclature, and to render them by degrees fit vehicles for conveying knowledge to the great mass of the population (ibid.: 115). Ever since, Western education has become profoundly engraved in Indian mindsets. Its hegemony over academia and disciplines of education in India remains unabated. Being educated in westernised education, ideally in western universities, continues to be highly esteemed among Indians. ‘Western knowledge superiority syndrome’ is still very visible in the form of a continued, even reinforced, superiority of the occidental knowledge system. India needs to discard it by casting off the colonial mindset and devising a knowledge system inspired by her own traditions in education and her philosophical and spiritual heritage. The epistemological foundation of India’s knowledge system, with highest respect for spirituality and intellectual pursuits, provides the prism for decolonising the knowledge system, comprehensively covering all disciplines, fields of knowledge and education systems. The writings of a very large number of renowned Western intellectuals, in tandem with those of eminent Indian thinkers, who acclaimed India’s philosophical traditions and spiritual heritage, are invaluable for edifying the knowledge system which is truly Indian, and which accords supremacy to spiritual and moral values in life as against materialistic pursuits. As such, revivification of India’s traditions in education makes it imperative to weed out the current phenomenon of commodification of knowledge or ‘edu-business’ since allowing education (vidya) to be made business (vyapar) is an affront to India’s spiritual heritage and her traditions where knowledge is free and heads are held high. The challenges in decolonising India’s knowledge system are compounded by the ‘platform Imperialism’ of our digital age, where, as John Naisbitt aptly remarked, ‘we are drowning in information but starved for knowledge’ (1982: 24). Digital technologies in education—‘edu-tech’ and especially Artificial Intelligence—erode ‘meditative thinking’ and are dehumanising in many ways. Their deleterious implications for the Indian knowledge system require careful consideration.
Topic:: Education, Decolonization, Knowledge Systems, and Digital Technologies
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

57. Liberty, Affect, and The Rise of Populism

Author:: Colin Anthony MacNairn
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: In this essay, I reinterpret Hartley B. Alexander’s early 20th-century account of liberty and democracy in light of the 21st-century populist resurgence, integrating the economic analysis of Jonathan Hopkin and Mark Blyth. By combining Alexander’s concerns surrounding the ethical collapse of democratic citizenship with Hopkin and Blyth’s diagnosis of structural economic disenfranchisement, I construct a dual account of populism’s rise as the convergence of moral atrophy and institutional decay. From Trump’s America to Modi’s India, populism emerges as a liberty weaponised against itself. I argue that populism is a condition wherein the form of democracy is preserved, but its substance is debased, thereby reduced to spectacle, demagoguery, and institutional dysfunction. Drawing on specific examples and institutional analysis, I further argue for a reconstruction of liberty grounded in moral formation and institutional responsiveness, thus offering a normative pathway beyond the populist condition.
Topic:: Economics, Ethics, Populism, Liberty, and Political Philosophy
Political Geography:: India, South America, North America, and United States of America

58. India in a Changing Global Order: Geopolitical Challenges and Strategic Interests in the Indo-Myanmar Borderlands

Author:: Manashi Parashar
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: This paper examines the borderlands of India and Myanmar as a critical site of India’s geopolitical strategy in the context of its Act East Policy and broader regional ambitions. It analyses the complex security challenges arising from cross-border insurgency, narco-trafficking, and China’s growing influence in Myanmar, compounded by internal political instability across the border. The study evaluates India’s key connectivity initiatives—such as the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project and the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway—and their role in enhancing regional integration. A balanced approach is emphasised in this paper, which highlights the importance of bilateral cooperation in border management and counterinsurgency. It argues that India must align its security priorities with economic engagement to safeguard its interests and strengthen its strategic presence on the Indo-Myanmar frontier.
Topic:: Geopolitics, Regional Integration, Borders, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, and Myanmar

59. Policy Brief on Hindu Migration/Exodus

Author:: Hina Khaliq Taj
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
Abstract:: According to the 2023 census, the population of Pakistan is 241.5 million. Hindus are the largest minority, comprising 5.2 million, which constitutes 1.6% of the population classified as Hindu Jati and 0.6% as Scheduled Castes.[1] Most of the Hindu population in Pakistan is concentrated in Sindh, accounting for 8.8% of the province's total population. The Hindu community in Pakistan, predominantly residing in Sindh, faces persistent socioeconomic marginalization and security threats. This community experiences systemic discrimination, particularly among Scheduled Caste Hindus, who often endure severe economic hardships. Increasing incidents of violence, forced conversions, and growing economic instability have led many Hindus to seek refuge in India in search of safety and improved living conditions. Despite a long tradition of diversity and tolerance in Sindh and elsewhere, rising religious polarization is contributing to discrimination and violence against the Hindu population. Insecurity further exacerbates their exclusion from political participation, education, and employment, prompting many to emigrate. A Hindu parliamentarian revealed that around 5,000 Hindus migrate to India annually due to security concerns.[2] Pakistan ranked among the top 11 countries experiencing large-scale violence, according to the 2021 Minority Rights Group International (MRG) report. [3] It ranked second in the Global Terrorism Index 2025, with terrorist attack-related deaths rising by 45% over the past year to 1,081.
Topic:: Migration, Minorities, and Hinduism
Political Geography:: Pakistan, South Asia, and India

60. A Global Enemy: Muslims and 21st Century Racism with Professor Saher Selod (9/11/2025)

Author:: Saher Selod
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:: Based on her critically acclaimed book, Dr. Saher Selod examines how Muslims experience racialization on a global scale with a focus on the United States, China, India, and the United Kingdom. Counterterrorism policies, hyper-surveillance and racialized policing are grounded in transnational negative representations of Islam which in turn legitimize and institutionalize state-sponsored racism against Muslim minorities.
Topic:: Racism, Muslims, Racialization, and Policing
Political Geography:: China, United Kingdom, Europe, India, Asia, North America, and United States of America

61. Transformations of Indian Islamism in the Background of the Activities of Abul A’la Maududi and Jama’at-e Islami

Author:: Anna Zasuń
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: The article attempts a historical and qualitative analysis of Indian-Pakistani Islamism, represented by Abul A’la Maududi and formed by him movement Jama’at-e Islami. Considering the specific context in which Islamist ideas were born in India, i.e. under the influence of nationalist and secular tendencies represented by the leading political forces of the subcontinent (in particular Muslim League and National Congress), the question of the originality and at the same time distinctiveness of Indian and then Pakistani Islamism in the context of similar movements in the Middle Eastern region is fascinating. This is interesting because the Indian context in the evolution of Islamism, although influential, is outside the mainstream of Islamist tendencies. The main aim of this article is therefore to trace the genesis and evolution of Indo-Pakistani Islamism, to examine the political, social and cultural conditions that shaped its character, and then to place it in the broader context of Islamism and the concept of the Islamic state as it relates to the broader context of the Islamic world. An essential basis for the considerations in the article is the views of Maududi himself, both on the Islamic state and Pakistani politics, including nationalism, democracy and the secular system of Pakistan.
Topic:: Nationalism, Islamism, Abul A'la Maududi, and Jama'at-e Islami
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, and Pakistan

62. India–Japan Defense Partnership in the Indo-Pacific: Geopolitical Prospects and Challenges Under Trump

Author:: Yen Pham Thi
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: This article examines the India–Japan defense partnership in the Indo-Pacific, focusing on its geopolitical prospects and challenges under the Trump administration. Strengthened by shared concerns over China’s rising influence and the convergence of their Indo-Pacific strategies, the partnership has evolved beyond symbolic engagement to include joint exercises, technology sharing, and defense dialogues aimed at preserving a free and rules-based regional order. At the same time, India’s reliance on Russian defense equipment, Japan’s dependence on US security guarantees, and the “America First” policy under Trump pose significant constraints. To sustain and deepen cooperation, both nations must enhance bilateral mechanisms, pursue strategic autonomy, expand multilateral engagements, and promote regional norms. These steps are essential for building a resilient, sustainable, and strategic partnership in the Indo-Pacific amid a shifting US foreign policy landscape.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Partnerships, Geopolitics, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Japan, China, India, Asia, and Indo-Pacific

63. Management practices, competition, and multi-product firms in developing countries

Author:: Victor Gimenez-Perales and Alina Mulyukova
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: We study how liberalization and competition affect firms’ output and product scope depending on management practices. In a model of multi-product firms, we show that firms with better management practices specialize in fewer products with lower marginal costs. The model predicts that, under increased competition, firms with better management practices are less adversely affected by competition, especially in heterogeneous sectors. Evidence from India’s de-reservation policy supports these predictions. Our simulations estimate a 0.29% welfare gain in India from the policy. The same policy could increase welfare by 0.39% in an environment with better management practices, such as the US, highlighting the management practices’ role in liberalization outcomes.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Business, Innovation, Management, and Liberalization
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, and United States of America

64. How Democracies Defend Themselves Against Authoritarianism

Author:: Robert Benson
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: Democracies facing authoritarian threats from within have found ways to push back by strengthening institutions, reinforcing democratic norms, and building popular resistance against encroaching autocracy. Understanding these strategies is vital to learning how to fight back.
Topic:: Human Rights, National Security, Authoritarianism, Reform, Elections, Democracy, Transparency, Voting Rights, Donald Trump, Domestic Policy, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:: Russia, Turkey, India, Israel, North America, and United States of America

65. Services Liberalization and Product Variety of Manufacturing Firms

Author:: Alina Mulykova
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: This paper investigates the impact of services sector liberalization on product innovation of downstream manufacturing firms. Leveraging firm-product panel data from India and employing a shift-share research design, I find that services liberalization significantly increases firms’ product portfolio. Allowing foreign investments in the banking sector decreases firm’s credit-constraint and increases the amount of interest payments on short-term loans. This shows that services liberalization reduces firms’ fixed costs of product innovation. Firms diversify into input-similar industries which changes the distribution of sales across products with the core product experiencing the most pronounced decline in the sales share.
Topic:: Globalization, Markets, Foreign Direct Investment, Innovation, and Liberalization
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

66. Determinants of Unemployment Duration in India

Author:: Roshan Kannan
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
Abstract:: Unemployment is one of the key macroeconomic variables used to assess the performance of an economy. However, there is a bias towards conceptualizing unemployment solely through its predominant measure of rates. Considering that rates alone do not reflect labor market conditions, especially in developing countries, it is crucial to include unemployment duration in analyzing labor market efficacy and the larger economy. This paper utilizes longitudinal data from CMIE to understand the determinants of unemployment duration through an OLS linear regression and survival analysis. It finds that the groups that experience longer spells of unemployment are young and old individuals, the highly educated, and upper caste individuals. Nonparametric survival analysis is also employed to account for censoring through the hazard and survival function. This model also finds that duration dependence is non-monotonic with individuals experiencing high initial re-employment probabilities before experiencing a decline in their hazard rates. However, analysis of re-employmentwages and occupation indicates a positive association with unemployment duration which indicates potential benefits to extended job search.
Topic:: Employment, Economy, Macroeconomics, Unemployment, and Wages
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

67. The EU-India Strategic Relationship in Times of Geopolitical Turmoil

Author:: Jan Luykx
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: After an eventful geopolitical summer, the India-EU relationship has been pushed completely to the political background. The waves created by President Trump have unbalanced both India and the EU. While this seems to have pushed the EU-India relationship into the background, it has the potential of opening up opportunities for working together more closely in several significant areas. It is up to the EU and India to take up this challenge and to carry forward their stated intention of strengthening their strategic relationship. While developing this strategic relationship, New Delhi and Brussels will both be forced to consider the reality of their respective relationships with Washington, Beijing and Moscow, in a context of shifting geopolitical dynamics.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Europe and India

68. Fragile States Index 2024 – Annual Report

Author:: Nate Haken, Paul Turner, Emily Sample, Fatoumata Maiga, and Perin Arkun
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Fund for Peace
Abstract:: The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and fragile states, The Fragile States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.
Topic:: Climate Change, Authoritarianism, Fragile States, and Political stability
Political Geography:: India, Brazil, Mozambique, Senegal, Tunisia, Somalia, Balochistan, South Sudan, Sahel, Global Focus, Niger, and Burkina Faso

69. Quad: The Next Phase

Author:: Lisa Curtis, Kareen Hart, Ryan Claffey, Keerthi Martyn, and Thomas Corel
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: T The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) among the United States, Australia, India, and Japan is becoming the focal point for economic and technological cooperation in the Indo-Pacific as the competition between the United States and China intensifies and regional power dynamics continue to evolve. The Quad nations share democratic values and seek to advance an affirmative vision for the region that promotes an inclusive regional architecture and offers options for regional partners, which are charting their economic and security futures in the face of growing great power competition. The second Trump administration is signaling its commitment to deepening Quad cooperation to counter China’s efforts to dominate the region and to ensure other countries in the region remain prosperous, peaceful, and free from coercion. However, the administration also has indicated that it wants to streamline the work of the Quad and whittle down its dozens of different working groups to focus on a handful of priorities. With the need to deliver tangible results, the administration is interested in maintaining fewer—yet more active—working groups that produce substantial outputs.1 While the Quad has made notable progress since it was revived nearly eight years ago, there is opportunity to expand and deepen its work to fulfill its promise of promoting a free, open, peaceful, and prosperous Indo-Pacific. To
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, Economy, Strategic Competition, and Quad Alliance
Political Geography:: Japan, China, India, Australia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

70. Addressing Maritime Security in Smaller South Asian States: Opportunities for US, Indian, and International Partnerships

Author:: Frank O'Donnell
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Under the dominant US paradigm of great-power competition, the maritime domain as a concept can often be viewed as shorthand for maintaining open access to sea lines of communication (SLOCs) and assuring sufficient deterrence against Chinese and Russian maritime coercion. The December 2020 joint US Navy, Marines, and Coast Guard Maritime Strategy emphasized these points. While these issues are important, this framing downplays two key US and global security factors. These firstly include the broader, multidimensional, and often interactive set of maritime security challenges – such as illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing, piracy, smuggling, disastrous climatic changes, and insufficient maritime law enforcement capacities – experienced by most world states, as opposed to a reductive, classical focus on the comparative naval and maritime force balances among the few international and regional powers. The second is the rising populations and economic influence of these smaller states, meaning their risk exposure to these maritime security threats poses deeper consequences beyond their borders and regions. It also means that, in an increasingly multipolar world, these states will have growing agency to select key relationships to nurture, and to decline or distance themselves from others. For great-power competition strategists, partnering with these states on their maritime security priorities as they define them will be critical to improving their own resilience and their ability to secure the global commons. Moreover, it will help nurture the durable relationships, based on mutual understanding, that each of the expert authors in this Occasional Paper special series argue their focal states are seeking. Such efforts should not be viewed as mutually exclusive with a preferred focus on high-end naval and maritime competition with rival powers, but a fundamental element of a successful grand strategy.
Topic:: Security, Partnerships, Geopolitics, Maritime, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, and United States of America

71. Optimizing Trade Flows and Investments Between India andCEMAC for Sustainable Industrialization in the Region

Author:: Stephane Atangana
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: Despite significant economic potential, CEMAC countries face structural and institutionalchallenges limiting sector diversification and competitiveness. Key constraints include inadequateinfrastructure, regulatory barriers, limited technological access, and institutional uncertainty, all ofwhich restrict industrial growth and foreign direct investment (FDI) ( 1 ). Trade between India and CEMAC, largely focused on raw materials, particularly crude oil, remainsunderdeveloped compared to its full potential. Similarly, Indian FDI, mostly resource-driven, isinsufficiently utilized. This brief proposes concrete strategies—drawing from endogenous growthand international trade theories—to address these barriers, enhance bilateral cooperation,encourage technology transfers, and promote robust public-private partnerships. Such measurescould significantly boost sustainable industrialization and global competitiveness in CEMAC.
Topic:: Investment, Trade, Industrialization, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

72. Strengthening Local Governance: A Study of Competencies of Grama Panchayat Functionaries in Karnataka

Author:: Avani Kapur, Mallika Arora, Sidharth Santhosh, Dongrisab Nadaf, and Kripa Krishna
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: This report delves into individual and team-based competencies of different functionaries including PDOs, PS, DEOs, Accounts Assistants, Bill Collector, Water Operator, Sahayak. The team observed that individual competencies differ based on the functionary’s role in the GP. Moreover, certain roles such as those of PDOs and PSs are provided more training opportunities when compared to others such as BCs or DEOs. Systemic factors such as vacancies, workload distribution also result in some functionaries taking on more tasks outside their formal job descriptions, often without the necessary authorisations. Beyond individual competencies, it is essential GPs function effectively as a team. However, the team found that regular team meetings are uncommon, and responsibilities are decided based on deadlines rather than a consultative, structured approach. Additionally, ERs are rarely consulted on community needs, despite their critical role in governance. While a culture of kindness and empathy exists within GPs, it can be further strengthened to ensure functionaries remain motivated to serve citizens effectively. Based on these findings, the team offers a range of recommendations, aimed at improving both individual and team competencies. These suggestions are intended to serve as a starting point for the department to further investigate the challenges and design suitable administrative reforms. Recommendations include redesigning job charts, enhancing PDO training, improving learning resources for all functionaries and improving engagement with elected representatives. Additionally, to improve team competencies the authors recommend introducing off site training for the GP as a team, introducing regular team meetings, group reflections after major events and fostering cross-GP collaborations.
Topic:: Development, Governance, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

73. Innovative Approaches to Convergence in Karnataka’s Grama Panchayats: Insights from 5 Case Studies

Author:: Avani Kapur, Mallika Arora, Ritwik Shukla, Sidharth Santhosh, and Dongrisab Nadaf
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: This report is titled “Innovative Approaches to Convergence in Karnataka’s Grama Panchayats: Insights from 5 Case Studies“. It unpacks convergence practices in different programs such as Grama Panchayat Library and Information Centres, Koosina Mane, Solid Waste Management, Health Screening, and Perspective Planning. The first case study on Rural Libraries presents how community involvement and inclusivity can promote and build learning and reading practices in GPs. The second case study on Koosina Mane highlights how the state can promote rural women’s workforce participation while also supporting children’s nutritional needs at early stages of development. The third case study on Solid Waste Management highlights the importance of localising waste management practices and also supporting alternative livelihood sources for rural women by tapping into existing community structures. The fourth case study on Health Screening further pushes the role of GPs, along with other actors in the health department, in promoting positive health outcomes. Finally, the fifth case study on Perspective Planning shows how efficient data management practices can ease monitoring and promote transparency in delivery of welfare services. Thus, through these case studies, the authors have presented the key learnings from Karnataka’s innovative convergence practices and resource management which other states in the country can leverage and build upon. Their observations, spread across several months of immersive fieldwork, can further support RDPR’s vision to sustain these initiatives in the coming years.
Topic:: Governance, Rural, Innovation, and Resource Management
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

74. Viksit Bharat’s Engine: An Institutional Roadmap to a $ 30 Trillion Economy – The Macroeconomic Institutional Imperative

Author:: Ejaz Ghani
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: This paper looks at the “Institutional Efficacy Puzzle” that lies at the heart of India’s development challenge and provides a deep, systemic diagnostic of these key institutions—the Ministry of Finance (MoF), the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), financial regulators (SEBI, IRDAI), tax authorities (CBDT, CBIC), and crucial oversight bodies like the Finance Commission and the National Statistical Commission (NSC). It moves beyond analysing symptoms to uncover root causes embedded in flawed designs, capacity deficits, or political economy constraints. It then proposes a comprehensive, actionable roadmap for profound reform aimed at building the Resilient, Agile, Accountable, and Inclusive (RAAI) institutional foundations essential for transforming the Viksit Bharat vision into a tangible reality.
Topic:: Development, Political Economy, Economy, Institutions, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

75. The Green Investment Banker: A Strategic Manifesto for Financing India’s Net Zero and ‘Viksit Bharat’ Future

Author:: Ejaz Ghani
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: Financing a Green ‘Viksit Bharat’ India’s national goal of becoming a developed economy by 2047 is inextricably linked to achieving its Net Zero commitment by 2070. This twin ambition requires an investment of an estimated $10 trillion, primarily in green infrastructure and industrial modernization. This paper argues that this colossal sum cannot be met by public funds alone. The central economic challenge for India over the next two decades is to build the institutional capacity to mobilize and direct trillions of dollars in private and global capital towards this green transition.
Topic:: Development, Infrastructure, Economy, Investment, Banking, Green Economy, and Net Zero
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

76. Power Shifts and Knowledge Production: India’s Rise and Scholarship in International Relations

Author:: Aksel B. Hvid, Fabricio H. Chagas-Bastos, and Peter Marcus Kristensen
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: While much scholarly attention has been paid to the ways in which the rise of powers like China and India may challenge the fundamentals of the world order, there little empirically grounded research on the relationship between the socio-political conditions driving upward power shifts (“risingness”) and knowledge production, particularly outside the Western core of the International Relations discipline. We show in this article that Indian scholars are more likely to portray India as a “rising power” when publishing in mainstream journals than when contributing to Indian journals. Moreover, Indian scholars publishing in mainstream journals often engage with a discourse centred on Western reference points, specifically addressing the future of the liberal international order. By contrast, Indian scholars publishing in Indian journals focus on issues relevant to the South Asian context, frequently emphasising India’s non-Western roots. Finally, while contributions to mainstream journals tend to frame India’s rising status predominantly from a Western, particularly American, perspective, contributions to Indian journals are more deeply rooted in India’s rich intellectual traditions.
Topic:: International Relations, Sociology, Knowledge Production, and Rising Powers
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

77. Global Public Opinion and the Growth of Right-Wing Populism

Author:: Richard Wike
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:: The “super year” of elections in 2024 was unprecedented in voting history, with citizens in more than 60 countries going to the polls. While it was generally a difficult year for incumbents, it was a strong one for challengers, including several from the populist right. Leveraging economic frustrations, divisive cultural issues, and anger at a political class perceived to be out of touch with ordinary citizens, right-wing populist leaders and parties made gains at the ballot box in several nations, building on the growing success they have seen in recent years.1 One of the most high-profile results in 2024 was Republican Donald Trump’s defeat of Democrat Kamala Harris in the United States presidential election, which returned the leader of the populist “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) movement to the White House after four years of Demo- cratic control. Right-wing populists also gained ground in European parlia- mentary elections. Austria’s Freedom Party, for example, had its best election result ever. The Alternative for Germany Party became the first far-right political party to win a state election in the country since World War II. And even though the cordon sanitaire—a bargain among political parties to keep the far right out of governing coalitions—ultimately kept Marine Le Pen’s National Rally out of power in France, the party nonetheless increased the number of seats it holds in the National Assembly. Parties on the right did well outside Europe and the United States too. For example, El Salvador’s incumbent President Nayib Bukele won reelection with over 80 percent of the vote, buoyed by strong support for his crackdown on criminal gangs. In Indonesia, Prabowo Subianto won the presidential election amid public concerns about his human rights record. And—though forced to form a coalition government for the first time—Indian Prime Min- ister Narendra Modi won a third consecutive victory, and his Bharatiya Janata Party, which captured 240 of 543 seats in the Lok Sabha, remains a dominant force in the country’s politics.
Topic:: Public Opinion, Elections, Populism, and Right-Wing Politics
Political Geography:: India, Global Focus, and United States of America

78. From the Belt and Road to Make in India: A Comparative Assessment of Global Economic Engagement

Author:: Ferhat Çağrı Aras
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Novus Orbis: Journal of Politics & International Relations
Institution:: Department of International Relations, Karadeniz Technical University
Abstract:: China and India have emerged as two of the most influential actors shaping contemporary debates on economic development, governance models, and global economic transformation. As leading emerging economies facing similar structural pressures yet pursuing markedly different development paths, their experiences provide valuable insights into alternative strategies of growth, regional development, and global economic integration. Within this context, this study aims to explore how China and India differ in their development strategies with particular attention to governance structures, regional development policies, and modes of global economic engagement. Drawing on a qualitative comparative research design, the analysis is based on document analysis and qualitative content analysis of official policy documents, development plans, and secondary academic sources. The comparative assessment is structured around three core criteria: governance and planning mechanisms, regional development strategies aimed at managing spatial inequalities, and approaches to global economic integration, with particular emphasis on Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Make in India program. Applying a consistent set of analytical dimensions to both cases allows for a systematic and conceptually balanced comparison. The findings suggest that China’s development strategy is shaped by a centralized, state-led governance model emphasizing long-term planning, large-scale infrastructure investment, and infrastructure-driven global engagement. In contrast, India’s development approach reflects a more decentralized and market-oriented model prioritizing regulatory reform, foreign direct investment, and partnership-based integration into global value chains. Rather than advancing normative evaluations, the study highlights how distinct governance logics produce different strengths and constraints under comparable global conditions. The article contributes to the literature on comparative development by offering a conceptually consistent analysis of China and India that moves beyond descriptive policy narratives. By linking governance structures to regional development strategies and global economic engagement, the study provides original insights into alternative development pathways among emerging economies in the Global South.
Topic:: Development, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Economic Engagement, and Global South
Political Geography:: China, South Asia, and India

79. India’s Future Strategic Choices: Complications of Mass

Author:: Richard M. Rossow
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: Leading up to the 2023 G20 summit in New Delhi, the Indian government put up billboards of Prime Minister Narendra Modi across the city. By one count, there were almost 1,000 signs and banners in the 12-kilometer stretch between the airport and U.S. President Joe Biden’s hotel highlighting India’s accomplishments, aspirations, and vision under Modi’s leadership.1 When asked about the billboards, India’s G20 coordinator responded, “We haven’t done advertising. We’re doing branding.”2 But this branding exercise was not merely intended to highlight India’s leadership role in a major international summit; it also sought to assert India’s leadership among the G20 countries that are less wealthy but large and fast growing. Quite purposively, India gathered more than 100 countries for the Voice of the Global South Summit the week before the G20 summit, where Modi declared the importance for India of “voicing the concerns of the Global South on the agenda of a significant platform like G-20.”3 As the concept of a coalition of Global South countries has emerged in recent years, India’s efforts to bolster its own brand as the vanguard of the Global South have accelerated. But India’s response to a new international order reflects an old strategy. In March 1947, on the eve of Indian independence, India hosted the first Asian Relations Conference, bringing together a diverse range of countries, including China, Indonesia, Egypt and the Arab League, Australia, and many of the Soviet republics. India hosted the conference during a period of geopolitical transformation, as countries around the world grappled with the aftermath of World War II and an emerging process of decolonization. Jawaharlal Nehru, then vice president of the Viceroy’s Executive Council, described the moment of the conference as an “age of transition.” He argued, “One of the notable consequences of the European domination of Asia has been the isolation of the countries of Asia from one another,” but “as that domination goes, the walls that surrounded us fall down and we look at each other again and meet as old friends long parted.”4
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: China, South Asia, and India

80. China Trying to Strengthen Dialogue with India

Author:: Marcin Przychodniak
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:: China sees India as its main rival in Asia. However, the Chinese authorities are maintaining a dialogue with the Indian government, recently even signalling a conciliatory attitude. In this way, they want to prevent an escalation in bilateral relations and try to influence India’s relations with the U.S. and the European Union in a way that is beneficial to China. Although China’s attempts to strengthen dialogue with India are tactical in nature, even a short-term improvement in bilateral relations poses a challenge for the EU. Attempts to reduce Europe’s dependence on China, in which India is to play an important role, are now in question.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Dialogue
Political Geography:: China, Europe, South Asia, India, Asia, and United States of America

81. The Quadripolar World: Understanding Twenty-First-Century Geopolitics

Author:: S. Yash Kalash
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:: The current geopolitical environment is defined by constantly changing dynamics among countries: long-standing partnerships are disintegrating while other alliances are strengthening. To better understand a world in flux, this special report presents the quadripolar geopolitical framework (QGF) in which four powers — the United States, China, India and Russia — serve as autonomous strategic poles. The framework seeks to capture the fluid, multidimensional nature of twenty-first-century geopolitics, where states simultaneously compete, cooperate and hedge across domains. Drawing on game theory, the QGF maps bilateral relationships across two axes: ideological alignment versus strategic autonomy, and systemic rivalry versus economic interdependence. Through case studies, the special report illustrates how contemporary power dynamics defy linear alliances and demand new interpretive tools.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Geopolitics, Economy, and Strategic Autonomy
Political Geography:: Russia, China, India, Global Focus, and United States of America

82. Algorithmic Sovereignty in South Asia: India’s Use of AI in the 2025 Border Conflict

Author:: Sanjeev Sareen
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
Institution:: Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:: This article explores the operational deployment of artificial intelligence (AI) by the Indian military during the May 2025 border conflict with Pakistan. It examines how indigenous AI systems—ranging from autonomous drones to predictive logistics—were utilized for real-time battlefield advantage. By situating these technologies within India’s strategic doctrine and industrial base, the paper offers an empirical foundation for understanding AI-enabled military sovereignty in the Global South. Further, the article critically assesses the role of AI within strategic decision-making, operational infrastructure, and future readiness frameworks. It contributes to the literature on emerging military technologies, defence innovation, and techno-nationalism.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Sovereignty, Innovation, Artificial Intelligence, Battlefield Advantage, and Techno-nationalism
Political Geography:: Pakistan, South Asia, and India

83. U.S. Democratic Backsliding in Comparative Perspective

Author:: McKenzie Carrier and Thomas Carothers
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The global democratic recession of the past twenty years has been marked by numerous cases of elected leaders incrementally dismantling democracy through a steady centralization of power and undercutting of checks and balances—what political scientists label as executive aggrandizement. Under the second Donald Trump presidency, the United States is showing clear signs of following such a path, leading many commenters to draw arresting but often relatively glancing comparisons with other prominent recent cases of democratic erosion, like Hungary, India, Poland, and Türkiye. This paper examines U.S. political developments since the return of Trump to power in an in-depth, comparative light, seeking to illuminate the similarities and differences between the unfolding U.S. context and the experience of other troubled democracies. The paper establishes that the Trump administration’s overall political project conforms to the general model of executive aggrandizement, and is best understood as taking place at three interrelated levels: Establishing the president as supreme within the executive branch: Trump’s team seeks an extreme form of presidential concentration of power within the executive branch. It has weakened accountability institutions and regulations, tightened presidential control over independent agencies and the executive bureaucracy, decreased the political independence of the civil service, and purged perceived opponents from the branch. Making the executive branch dominant over other parts of government: The administration is forcefully seeking dominance over the judiciary, Congress, and states. It has defied court orders, criticized judicial rulings, and constrained individual judges. It has circumvented congressional policies and undermined its powers. And it has attacked and constrained state governments that do not align with administration policies. Weakening societal constraints on executive power: Trump has stymied civil society opposition by attacking independent media, punishing lawyers and law firms perceived to be oppositional, and constraining civic and educational organizations. His team has undermined vertical checks on the executive by weakening voting rights and the independence of election administration. Broadly, Trump is pursuing widespread retribution against perceived opponents and critics. The paper then compares the path of U.S. politics under Trump to seven other recent or ongoing cases of democratic backsliding—Brazil, Ecuador, El Salvador, Hungary, India, Poland, and Türkiye—highlighting distinctive features along three comparative dimensions: Focus: The Trump team’s agenda has several priorities that set it apart from other backsliding cases. These include its unique emphasis on intra-executive dominance, delegitimization rather than institutionalized attacks on horizontal checks, and coercive use of the robust federal funding ecosystem to pressure U.S. civil society. Rapidity: The administration has carried out its political program with striking speed. Compared to other backsliding cases, it has sought to centralize power with greater momentum and rapidity. And while other leaders often eroded democratic checks piece by piece, Trump’s team is working to weaken such checks across multiple levels all at once. Severity: The degree of democratic erosion in the United States is not yet as severe as that of most of its backsliding peers. The country has not yet seen the deep-rooted institutional changes that have characterized many of the comparative cases. And repressive measures like coercive force or criminalization have been limited by U.S. democratic norms and institutions. While some comfort can be taken from the fact that the relatively deeply rooted U.S. democratic norms and institutions compared to those in the other cases have resulted in a less institutionalized process of backsliding thus far, the distinctive speed and aggressiveness of Trump’s aggrandizement agenda is cause for serious concern. Numerous avenues and sources of resistance to democratic erosion continue to exist, but U.S. democracy is being put to the test as never before in the country’s modern history.
Topic:: Government, Domestic Politics, Donald Trump, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:: Turkey, India, Poland, Brazil, Hungary, North America, Ecuador, El Salvador, and United States of America

84. India-Russia Relations in Troubled Times: Steady but Stagnating

Author:: Aleksei Zakharov
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: This paper examines the trajectory of India-Russia relations post-February 2022. The war in Ukraine emerged as a significant challenge for bilateral ties, presenting new obstacles to political and diplomatic relations and intensifying the previous difficulties in developing economic cooperation. Moscow and New Delhi have demonstrated divergent approaches to the advancement of their strategic partnership. While Russia has rushed into reinventing the old friendship with India, the latter has acted with greater discretion. New Delhi has demonstrated a nuanced approach to navigating the Russia-Ukraine conflict, staying on good terms with Moscow and the West. India’s record imports of Russian crude and other commodities, at times in defiance of Western sanctions, have allowed for a considerable boost in bilateral trade. While this “oil connection” may benefit both the Indian and Russian economies, it should not be misperceived as a leap forward in partnership. The structural challenges appear to still prevent the two sides from reinvigorating the economic ties. Furthermore, their geopolitical understanding is waning, and their defense cooperation is currently in a state of limbo. As long as the war in Ukraine persists, India seems to be prioritizing maintaining the status quo in its relationship with Russia over pursuing new initiatives. This may help to prevent the two sides from drifting apart too far in the near term but is unlikely to lead to any substantive progress in their relationship.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, Vladimir Putin, and Narendra Modi
Political Geography:: Russia, South Asia, and India

85. India Votes 2024: A resurgent Hindu nationalism sets the stage for the upcoming elections, driving communal violence

Author:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: On 22 January 2024, Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurated the Ram temple in Ayodhya at the site where the Babri mosque once stood, marking the unofficial start of the general elections campaign by his party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).1 The construction of the temple, which had served as a rallying cry for Hindu nationalists since the mosque’s demolition by a Hindu mob, stirred up sentiments of Hindu pride across the country, with the BJP leading the celebrations.2 On the other hand, the principal opposition party, the Indian National Congress (INC), boycotted the ceremony, accusing the BJP of politicizing religion.3 The fanfare surrounding the inauguration also overlooked the temple’s deadly origins, prompting concern over the turn toward majoritarianism in Indian society.4 The Babri mosque, constructed under the reign of the Mughal emperor Babar, was believed to have stood upon the birthplace of the Hindu Lord Ram, making it a point of contention between India’s Hindu and Muslim communities for nearly two centuries.5 Following nationwide mobilization by senior BJP leaders to reclaim the Ram Janmabhoomi (birthplace), a Hindu mob demolished the Babri Masjid on 6 December 1992.6 In the years since, the Ram Mandir (temple) remained a focal point of the Hindu nationalist movement, with the BJP at its forefront. A 2019 Supreme Court judgment awarding the disputed land to the Hindu applicants, finding they possessed a better title, ultimately paved the way for the temple’s construction, even as the court condemned the mosque’s demolition by the mob as an illegal act.7 The values of secularism and religious tolerance enshrined in India’s Constitution have long struggled against the realities of its demographics, where Hindus, comprising around 80% of the population, form the overwhelming majority.8 The gradual rise of the BJP, which views India foremost as a Hindu rashtra (nation), further increased the strain on these principles while also emboldening more radical Hindutva (Hindu nationalist) groups within the country.9 Among these is the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), a right-wing Hindu paramilitary group that organized the Babri Masjid’s demolition.10 The BJP has strong ideological and organizational ties with the RSS; Modi himself began his political career as a religious volunteer with the group.11 The mainstreaming of Hindutva politics under the BJP has increased tensions between Hindus and religious minorities, sparking a resurgence in communal violence. India’s Muslim community, which is among the world’s largest Muslim populations, has borne the brunt of this violence. With the BJP galvanizing its supporters around the cause of Hindu nationalism ahead of the 2024 elections, the second part of ACLED’s India Elections Special Issue focuses on increased religious polarization as a driver for political violence across India.
Topic:: Political Violence, Elections, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and Hindu Nationalism
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

86. A Palestinian Gandhi or an Israeli de Gaulle? Why the Context of Violence Matters

Author:: Sharif Elmusa
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Questioning why there hasn’t been a Palestinian Gandhi or Mandela ignores the history and context in which Palestinian resistance occurs, especially the abiding violence visited on the Palestinians since 1917
Topic:: Colonialism, Violence, BDS, Mahmoud Abbas, Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, Nelson Mandela, and Charles de Gaulle
Political Geography:: Middle East, India, Israel, South Africa, Palestine, and West Bank

87. Labour market inequality in two Asian giants Indonesia and India compared

Author:: Kunal Sen
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: We examine the nature of labour market inequality in Indonesia and India, using a common conceptual approach drawing from the job ladder framework. In the framework, we differentiate between self-employment and wage-informal and between formal, upper tier informal, and lower tier informal jobs. We find that both countries have a large proportion of workers in lower tier jobs, though the importance of wage-employment is larger in Indonesia. There are more workers in formal wage-employment in Indonesia than India. There are also sharp disparities in the earnings of workers in different tiers of the labour market in Indonesia and India, and there is limited evidence of convergence of the earnings of the lower tier informal workers to that of formal workers, at least for Indonesia. We also find that gender and educational level are important correlates of work status in both countries. Females and less educated workers occupy the lower tiers of the labour markets in the two countries.
Topic:: Employment, Inequality, Economy, Labor Market, and Informal Economy
Political Geography:: South Asia, Indonesia, India, and Asia

88. What if…? 12 Dragon King scenarios for 2028

Author:: Florence Gaub
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: NATO Defense College
Abstract:: At first glance, this publication appears to be a collection of Early Warning essays – they are, to some extent, but they should not be exclusively read as such. Conventional Early Warning systems have a much shorter time horizon – normally hours, perhaps months at most – than these scenarios, and they are solely mitigation mechanisms, that is to say they provide no insight into how the event they are warning of can be avoided. They are thus not an intellectual thought exercise, but solely an alarm bell. Our Dragon Kings in this volume provide insight into how they can be avoided, but they also challenge our assumptions in more ways than one. They are therefore awareness-raisers no matter how credible or plausible you will find them. Just reading them will have a readiness-increasing effect. (In fact, the more absurd you find them, the more pronounced this is because your mind will learn more when the emotion they generate is greater.) These scenarios can become even more useful, however, if you use them for simulation exercises in a team. You can use them as a blueprint for a wider scenario exercise, whether one wishes to adopt a blue or red team approach to them, and ask questions such as: how could this have been prevented, what would have to be done? What are alternative pathways of this scenario that are even worse, and how can we prevent those? The most important aspect is that every exercise of this kind must lead to some concrete policy steps. Merely thinking about improbable futures is never enough – doing something about them is what makes them a useful policy-tool. In that case, they lead to active, rather than passive, engagement with the content, foster collaboration, encourage innovation, practice decision-making, provide a space for failure and experimentation with alternative courses of action. It is precisely because of this that scenarios are a common feature in military education, but they work just as well in any other strategic context – provided, time and space is made for it. If yes, they contribute to increasing preparedness and readiness, and accelerate the response time to surprise. What’s more, generally engaging in fringe thinking about the future will strengthen these capabilities no matter what kind of surprise eventually occurs. Much like how vaccines teach the immune system, disruptive thinking strengthens our neural networks, making us more resilient for extreme situations.
Topic:: NATO, Natural Disasters, Elections, Crisis Management, Coup, UN Security Council, Biological Weapons, Resilience, Arctic Council, and Readiness
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Iraq, Europe, India, Taiwan, Latin America, Nigeria, and Tunisia

89. The Security Side of Gulf Visions. Adapting Defence to the Connectivity Age

Author:: Eleanora Ardemagni
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: The GCC states are adapting defence strategies to the challenges raised by their “Visions”, their post-hydrocarbon national plans. Far from being just economic programmes, the Visions are broad national transformation platforms displaying also a security dimension, and with many security implications. New cities and industrial poles, infrastructures, mega events and tourism raise unprecedented security risks, at which the GCC states are answering through a combination of economic-oriented foreign policy, multipolar international alliances, and ambitions towards “defense autonomisation”. What are the Visions’ security dimensions and implications, and how does the post-oil path affect and reshape foreign policies? This Report analyses how GCC states are adapting deterrence and defence tools to the connectivity age, navigating a troubled neighbourhood of both conventional and asymmetric threats. In a central but more vulnerable Gulf, how may the EU and NATO accommodate transformations in GCC states’ defense policies, postures, and means, to support their own security?
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Gulf Cooperation Council, and Strategic Planning
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, India, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

90. Moving Targets. Trends in Japan’s Foreign and Security Policies

Author:: Axel Berkofsky and Giulia Sciorati
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: In December 2022, Japan announced it would drastically increase its defence budget by 2027. The decision came as a wake-up call for the whole region: Japan was gearing up for a world of heightened tensions and rivalry in the Indo-Pacific Region. This Report analyses the present and future of Japan’s security and defence policies. Within the context of a rising China, Tokyo has broadened its defence ties with the US, India, Australia, and Taiwan. However, China remains its biggest trading partner, meaning Tokyo's policymakers are charged with the task and challenge of striking a balance between defence policies and business and trade relations with China.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, ASEAN, Influence, Defense Spending, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Japan, India, Taiwan, Australia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

91. The Sky Is Not the Limit. Geopolitics and Economics of the New Space Race

Author:: Alessandro Gili
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: Space is a contested domain for its very nature and today it is evidently becoming an increasingly important enabler of economic and military power. An increasing number of actors, infrastructures and technologies deployed in space also raises concerns for safety and security, especially in cyberspace. Many countries are striving to achieve space capabilities and autonomous access to space, and this is having a tremendous geopolitical impact, especially since space is emerging as an increasingly critical military and strategic domain. The development of the new space economy, which is increasingly involving the private sector and many industrial actors and services, will also be a game changer for the international economy. The space race likewise implies disruptive technologies that could contribute massively to the energy and digital transitions, accelerating solutions that could benefit humanity. A new international governance system for space is therefore needed urgently, considering that the current rules are no longer able to respond to a sector evolving at such a rapid pace. Which actors are leading the race? Which economic sectors could benefit the most and what could the new space economy mean for the world? How is space emerging as a military domain against a backdrop of increasing international tensions? What would a new system of global governance for space look like?
Topic:: Economics, Politics, Infrastructure, Geopolitics, Regulation, and Energy Security
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, India, Italy, Global Focus, United States of America, and Space

92. Decoding India’s 2024 National Elections

Author:: Niranjan Sahoo
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:: India’s 2024 national election is billed to be the biggest election in history. The mammoth exercise which involves the participation of 986 million voters and more than 600 political parties will last 44 days before the results are announced on June 4. It is also billed to be the most expensive elections in the world (Pradhan 2024), overtaking the United States elections. The noteworthy fact about this mega exercise is that nearly the entire process will be conducted through Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs). A staggering 5.5 million EVMs will be used to conduct this mammoth exercise spanning over two months (Business Standard 2024-03-16). Further, the 2024 national elections will determine who gets to occupy the Lok Sabha or Lower House of the Parliament. The party or a coalition of parties that gets a majority in the LoK Sabha will get to nominate its Prime Minister and run the government for next five years.
Topic:: Elections, Populism, Domestic Politics, Welfare, Misinformation, and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

93. Green Hydrogen for Decarbonizing Asia's Industrial Giants

Author:: Asia Society Policy Institute
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Asia Society
Abstract:: Asia’s transformation in recent decades into a global manufacturing hub has fueled economic growth and lifted millions out of poverty. However, this success has also massively increased the region’s emissions footprint, making it essential for Asia’s industries to rapidly transition to green technologies and processes. “Green Hydrogen for Decarbonizing Asia’s Industrial Giants” assesses the future potential and trajectory for electrolyzers needed to meet green hydrogen (H2) demand in Asia’s four largest economies: China, India, Japan, and South Korea. The report, which was commissioned by the High-level Policy Commission on Getting Asia to Net Zero and carried out by Global Efficiency Intelligence, highlights the role of manufacturers as agents of change in the Asia’s net zero transition. The study focuses on the role of green H2 in three priority industries — steel, ammonia, and methanol — under various decarbonization scenarios. In these sectors, green H2 has the capacity to significantly reduce emissions by replacing carbon-intensive processes with renewable energy-powered electrolysis. Should the four countries adhere to their declared net zero targets, the collective market potential of electrolyzers for these industries is expected to skyrocket to $180 billion by 2050, with a compound annual growth rate as high as 12% between 2030 and 2040. This is nearly five times as large as the market potential under a business-as-usual scenario. The report offers a suite of recommendations for policymakers, industry players, investors, and think thanks aimed at accelerating the development and adoption of green H2 and electrolyzer manufacturing. These targeted strategies aim to collectively support a robust ecosystem for green H2 production and use in these countries toward a net zero industry.
Topic:: Industry, Carbon Emissions, Decarbonization, Hydrogen, and Net Zero
Political Geography:: Japan, China, India, Asia, and South Korea

94. Deterring an attack on Taiwan: policy options for India and other non-belligerent states

Author:: Arzan Tarapore
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: India has a vital role to play in deterring China from unifying Taiwan by military force, a new Australian Strategic Policy Institute report finds, highlighting New Delhi’s significant economic, diplomatic, legal and strategic narrative levers. The report looks beyond traditional thinking on military preparations to dissuade Beijing from taking the island by force and offers six ways for India, with its great strategic and economic weight, to “help shape Beijing’s calculus away from the use of force”. The author writes that the use of such long-term measures is vital to New Delhi’s own interests, as the economic and regional security impacts of a major war would be devastating for India itself.  India and other “non-belligerent states” could apply a range of measures to persuade Beijing that the time is not right for a military attack. The aim would be to convince Beijing that "its ducks aren’t quite in a row... so that it defers military action to some uncertain point in the future". The report states that China remains deterrable. While it is determined to assume control of the island as a paramount strategic priority, it knows a military invasion would be enormously costly and uncertain.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Deterrence, Military, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: India, Taiwan, and Asia

95. The geopolitics of water: how the Brahmaputra River could shape India–China security competition

Author:: Neely Haby
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: This report assesses the geopolitical impact of a possible dam at the Great Bend of the Brahmaputra. In particular, it exams the dam as a potential source of coercive leverage China may gain over India. A dam there would create four likely strategic effects: it would very likely consolidate Beijing’s political control over its distant borderlands; it would create the potential for massive flooding as a tool of violence; it may affect human settlement and economic patterns on the Indian side of the border, downstream; and it would give Beijing water and data that it could withhold from India as bargaining leverage in unrelated negotiations. To mitigate those challenges and risks, the report provides three policy recommendations for the Indian Government and its partners in Australia and the US. First, it recommends the establishment of an open-source, publicly available data repository, based on satellite sensing, to disseminate information about the physical impacts of the Great Bend Dam. Second, it recommends that like-minded governments use international legal arguments to pressure Beijing to abide by global norms and conventions. Third, it recommends that the Quad—the informal group comprising Australia, India, Japan and the US—use its humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR) guidelines to begin to share information and build capacity for dam-related contingencies.
Topic:: Water, Geopolitics, Rivers, Competition, Regional Security, and Brahmaputra River
Political Geography:: China, India, and Asia

96. Beijing’s Aggression Behind Emerging India-Philippines Defense Relationship

Author:: Peter Chalk
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: The People’s Republic of China’s increasingly assertive stance on affirming its territorial claims in the Indo-Pacific is informing the evolution of a closer defense relationship between New Delhi and Manila. On September 25, the Philippine Coast Guard removed a floating barrier that China had installed at Huangyan Dao (黄岩岛, an island in the Scarborough Shoal) in the South China Sea (SCS) the previous day. Responding to questions about the incident, PRC Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin (王文斌) maintained that “China Coast Guard did what was necessary to block and drive away the Philippine vessel,” and that “Huangyan Dao has always been China’s territory. What the Philippines did looks like nothing more than self-amusement” (FMPRC, September 26; FMPRC, September 27). Earlier in September, New Delhi’s Ambassador to the Philippines Shambu Kumaran expressed solidarity with Manila by pointedly rejecting the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s new extended ten-dash map of its sovereignty claims in the South China Sea (SCS) and Line of Actual Control (LAC). He criticized the move from Beijing as unhelpful “cartographic expansionism” (Manila Times, September 3). These two incidents, occurring in the space of less than a month, are only the most recent in a string of aggressive acts in recent years. The reactions of both India and the Philippines are indicative of growing unity among some of China’s neighboring countries as a direct response to the security threat that China poses. In recent years, these two partners have increased the areas of engagement for security collaboration and expressed an intent to further such initiatives. The PRC lambasts the Philippines for choosing “to ignore China’s goodwill and sincerity” (MOFA, August 8), but this rhetoric only reaffirms Manila’s shifting calculus. There are limits to how close the Indo-Philippines defense relationship will get, but there is still ample room to explore various forms of cooperation short of a mutual defense treaty. The coming years will see much more of that exploration start to materialize. The PRC has several options in terms of responding to this emerging dynamic. These range from economic coercion, influence operations, and leveraging its relationship with Russia to put pressure on India. It is unclear which combination of these the PRC will ultimately pursue, though the PRC has made it abundantly clear that backing down in the South China Sea is not an option it is willing to entertain.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Bilateral Relations, Coercion, and Aggression
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, Philippines, and Asia-Pacific

97. Global IR Research Programme: From Perplexities to Progressions

Author:: Deepshikha Shahi
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: Our basic expectations vis-à-vis ‘the international’ have turned our phenomenal existence into two seemingly irreconcilable cognitive prisons: ‘one world’ with homogenizing propensities (dominated by the West) and ‘many worlds’ with heterogenizing predispositions (embodied by the non-West). Every so often, these cognitive prisons—oscillating between the extreme homogenizing propensities of the West and heterogenizing predispositions of the non-West— become obstacles in implementing effective global partnerships that are required to tackle the challenges thrown by global crisis-situations, e.g., the likelihoods of world war, financial crisis, climate change, pandemic, and the like. The agenda of the ‘Global IR research programme’ has emerged to demolish these cognitive prisons. To this end, this agenda finds rational support from multiple auxiliary theories that derive stimulus from hitherto denigrated knowledge-forms thriving in different corners of the world: e.g., Tianxia (all-under-heaven) from China, Advaita (non-duality) from India, and Mu No Basho (place of nothingness) from Japan. Nevertheless, the conditioned reflexes of many IR researchers compel them to receive the emergent knowledge-forms by correlating their ‘source’ and ‘scope’: generally, the knowledge-forms having their source in the West are granted a global scope, whereas the knowledge-forms having their source in the non-West are given a local scope; it is often suspected that the local non-Western knowledge-forms cannot grasp the larger global scenario. Philosophically, these conditioned reflexes emanate from Kantian dualism, which forms disconnected opposites of phenomena-noumena, science-metaphysics, West–non-West etc. This article reveals how the Global IR research programme—inspired by the Chinese, Indian and Japanese cosmovisions—strives to demolish the cognitive prisons of ‘one world versus many worlds’, thereby ensuring the prospective progressions of this research programme.
Topic:: International Relations and Research
Political Geography:: Japan, China, India, and Global Focus

98. Factsheet: Hindu Swayamsewak Sangh (HSS)

Author:: Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:: Hindu Swayamsewak Sangh (HSS) is a right-wing Hindu non-profit organization registered in New Jersey. On its website, the group states its mission is “to organize a diverse and vibrant Hindu American society that can collectively address its challenges and contribute to the welfare of the world.” As of November 2023, HSS claims it has 220 Shakhas (branches) nationwide. HSS’s website venerates the early ideologues of Hindu nationalism, including those who praised Nazi Germany. Additionally, HSS has hosted prominent figures from the RSS, an Indian right-wing, Hindu nationalist, paramilitary volunteer organization.
Topic:: Far Right, Hindu Nationalism, and Hindu Swayamsewak Sangh (HSS)
Political Geography:: India, North America, and United States of America

99. Factsheet: Narendra Modi

Author:: Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:: Narendra Damodardas Modi is the current Prime Minister of India. He was the Chief Minister of Gujarat during the deadly 2002 anti-Muslim pogroms in the state, and throughout his political career, he has promoted Hindu nationalist views. Under his leadership, India has experienced a rise in anti-Muslim hate crimes and hate speech, increasing polarization and violence in society, growing restrictions on the media, and the growth of Hindu nationalist groups. Critics and human rights experts have warned that under Modi’s leadership, democracy in India is under threat.
Topic:: Islamophobia, Narendra Modi, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Hindutva, and Hindu Nationalism
Political Geography:: India and Gujarat

100. Risk of Mass Atrocities in India

Author:: Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:: Rising levels of discrimination and dehumanization of minority communities in India is putting millions at an increased risk of mass atrocities. India has ranked in the top 15 countries at risk of mass killing since the Early Warning Project’s 2017–18 assessment, including its highest rank of second in the world last year.1 Since coming to power in 2014, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have promoted a Hindu nationalist ideology that characterizes India’s Muslim minority population of approximately 200 million people, 14% of the population, as a threat to the security and success of India.2 This identity-based ideology also threatens the safety of other minorities and excluded groups, such as Christian communities and Dalits.3 India’s constitution enshrines egalitarian principles, including nondiscrimination on the basis of religious identity.4 In 2021, a study conducted by the Pew Research Center found that more than 3 out of 4 Indians of all faiths believed that religious tolerance is an important part of being “truly Indian.”5 However, proponents of a decades old Hindu nationalist ideology, Hindutva, believe instead that “Hinduism—not the precarious balancing of all ethnic and religious communities residing in India—is the ultimate source of the country’s identity,” and it is this ideology that is embraced by the BJP and Prime Minister Modi.6 Scott Straus, a leading scholar on mass atrocities, has summarized research about risk factors for anticipating whether mass atrocities are likely to occur in a particular country, and these include: the presence of instability or armed conflict; adherence by political elites to an exclusionary ideology; and a history of discrimination (with impunity) against a particular group.7 Today instability in India is arguably geographically limited, as with the outbreak of conflict in May 2023 in Manipur. India has experienced more widespread inter-communal violence and mass atrocities in the past, with an uneven record of accountability or redress. The BJP today promotes an exclusionary nationalist ideology which privileges the rights of Hindus and presents religious minorities, particularly Muslims, as social and cultural outsiders, and as political and physical threats. This is demonstrated through discriminatory legislation, and a barrage of hate speech, including by political and religious leaders, that has tipped into outright incitement to violence. If nothing is done to address these risks, India may continue to experience a rise in the number of violent (and fatal) attacks against religious minorities, an escalation in the scale of the violence, and an increased level of state involvement in atrocities. Many countries, including the United States, view India as an important strategic partner on multiple fronts, including economically and politically as a counter to China's influence in the region. This can make discussions of mass atrocity risk more sensitive, but it should also demonstrate the ways in which mass atrocities in India could reverberate. For example, violence in states along India’s borders with Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Burma could exacerbate insecurity in India’s neighbors. Discrimination and mass violence in India could also undermine the assumptions of stability and shared values on which global initiatives are being built.8
Topic:: Minorities, Discrimination, Narendra Modi, Atrocity Prevention, Protection, and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS