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1. The Greek Tragedy: Narratives and Imagined Futures in the Greek Sovereign Debt Crisis

Author:
Jens Beckert and Hans Lukas Richard Arndt
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
Between 2009 and 2015 Greece underwent a profound sovereign debt crisis that led to a serious political crisis in Europe and the restructuring of Greek debt. We argue that the prevalence of negative narratives about the future contributed to the changes in spreads of Greek bonds during the crisis. We support our argument by presenting results from text mining a corpus of 9,435 articles from the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal. Based on sentiments and a machine learning model predicting future reference, we identify newspaper articles which generate negative and uncertain outlooks for the future in the expert discourse. We provide evidence from time series regression analysis showing that these negative imagined futures have explanatory power in models estimating spread development of Greek vs. German sovereign bonds. We suggest that these findings provide good evidence for the relevance of “imagined futures” for investors’ behavior, and give directions for an innovative contribution of sociology to understanding the microfoundations of financial crises.
Topic:
Debt, Financial Crisis, Financial Markets, Future, Sovereign Debt, Economic Sociology, Sentiment Analysis, and Valuation
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

2. Exploring the Potential of Minilateralism for the Europe-Mediterranean Partnership

Author:
Roee Kibrik
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
The Mediterranean and Europe, as interconnected regions sharing geographical spaces and proximity, severe challenges, common interests and intertwined goals, present a compelling opportunity to explore minilateralism as a framework for fostering cooperation and developing resilience. This research examines the potential of minilateralism to contribute to the Europe-Mediterranean partnership, highlighting the rationale, objectives, potential areas of focus, and expected outcomes of promoting minilateral frameworks in this context. Two minilateral frameworks will be examined: Israel-Greece-Cyprus and Israel-Morocco-European Union (EU). Based on this examination, the research will discuss particular insights regarding these specific configurations, and general insights regarding characters, opportunities and challenges of minilateralism in the region as a way to foster the Europe-Mediterranean partnership.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, European Union, Partnerships, Resilience, and Minilateralism
Political Geography:
Europe, Israel, Greece, Morocco, Cyprus, and Mediterranean

3. From Arming to Fighting? The Steps to War, Mutual Military Buildups and Dispute Onset in the Greece-Ottoman Empire/Turkey Rivalries

Author:
Ioannis Nioutsikos, Konstantinos Travlos, and Magdalini Daskalopoulou
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
Recent developments in the operationalization of mutual military buildups raise some questions about the findings of the quantitative literature on the association of mutual military buildups (MMB) and militarized dispute (MID) onset in the Greece-Ottoman Empire and Greece-Turkey dyads. We use the novel data to evaluate that relationship, working within the Steps to War explanatory framework. The Greece-Ottoman Empire and Greece-Turkey cases are puzzles for the framework, since on the one they have had a frequent presence of the Steps to War but have far fewer wars than we would expect. Our analysis indicates that despite that puzzling incongruity the Greece - Ottoman Empire and Greece-Turkey cases are good fits for the Steps to War, except when it comes to the role of mutual military buildups. We find indicators that while the other factors of Steps to War have a positive combined association with MID onset, the inclusion of mutual military buildups renders such an association statistically insignificant. On the other hand, we do find indicators that mutual military buildups may contribute to the transition from Lesser to Severe Rivalry, as per the Steps to Rivalry. Finally, the dyads reach infection periods that make war more likely as per the Steps to War. But many expected wars do not take place. We posit two possible explanations for future research: deterrence, or major power managerial coordination.
Topic:
International Relations, History, Political Science, Ottoman Empire, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
Turkey and Greece

4. Breaking the Stalemate in the Study of the Relationship of Mutual Military Buildups, Arms Races, and Militarized Disputes: The Greece-Turkey/Ottoman Empire Cases

Author:
Ioannis Nioutsikos, Konstantinos Travlos, and Magdalini Daskalopoulou
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
The most recent surveys on the study of the connection between mutual military buildups, arms races, and military interstate disputes (MID) warn of research projects, especially in the case of the Greece-Turkey dyad, that have reached a stalemate. This is due to the difficulty of capturing motivations, which constitute the main variable that turns mutual military buildups into arms races. Using the Greece-Ottoman Empire and Greece-Turkey dyads as proof-of-concept cases, we advance a novel approach for analyzing the interrelation between mutual military buildups, arms races, and MIDs that can overcome that stalemate. We suggest a two-stage approach that focuses on the dyad as a unit of analysis. In the first stage, which we preset here, we use rivalry to divide dyad history into periods of differing subsistence military spending. We then locate periods of mutual military buildups in the different rivalry periods of a dyad history. We argue that this process provides a more nuanced and detailed grasp on the presence of mutual military buildups in a dyad. It also provides the foundation for the future second stage of analysis, where qualitative research can focus on the specific periods of mutual military buildups to unearth indicators of motivation.
Topic:
Ottoman Empire, Rivalry, Arms Race, and Military
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Greece

5. Defence expenditure and public debt in Greece: A non-linear relationship

Author:
Ioanna Bardakas, Dimitris Doulos, and George Andrew Zombanakis
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The aim of this paper is to consider and evaluate the widely–used argument attributing the growth of the public debt of Greece in recent decades to the country’s defence expenditure. We employ a two-equation model that focuses on the determinants of the military debt and how this has affected the public debt. The source of our military debt data is the Hellenic General Accounting Office, an option taken to cope with confidentiality issues. Finally, we insist on focusing on the expenditure on defence equipment imports rather than the total defence spending that the literature mostly covers, for reasons extensively analysed. Our methodology firstly assumes a linear relationship between military debt and public debt. We solve the system using 3SLS to obtain consistent and efficient estimates to derive interesting policy implications. The employment of a non-linear quadratic form not previously adopted proves to be superior in terms of performance and reveals the complexity of the above relationship. These point to the conclusion that the defence equipment purchases made since the beginning of the eighties have not had a decisive impact on the public debt of Greece. The defence equipment purchases made since the beginning of the eighties represent a very low percentage of the total public debt of Greece. Moreover, these are considered to be an investment activity rather than consumer spending, which has been acknowledged in the literature as the primary cause of Greece’s high indebtedness and the ensuing economic crisis.
Topic:
Security, Public Debt, Public Spending, Economic Security, Defense Spending, and Military
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

6. NATO's Strategic Concept: Implications for Greece and Türkiye

Author:
Nikolaos Lampas
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
This article analyses the impact of North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) new strategic concept on its involvement in the Eastern Mediterranean and its implications for Greek-Turkish relations. We analyse the application of NATO’s new strategic concept in the Eastern Mediterranean by focusing on the case study of Greek-Turkish tensions and NATO’s role in de-escalation efforts. The case study of Greek-Turkish relations is vital for two reasons. Firstly, because of NATO’s renewed interest in the Eastern Mediterranean region, and secondly, because the complicated relationship between the two countries has the potential to disrupt NATO’s unity. The findings of this article suggest that while NATO’s intention is to adapt to evolving security challenges, its new strategic concept has done little to de-escalate the tensions between Greece and Türkiye. Despite the Alliance’s commitment to collective defence and conflict resolution, the longstanding disputes in the Eastern Mediterranean have persisted, often with increased intensity. In conclusion, NATO’s new strategic concept acknowledges the burgeoning complexities in the Eastern Mediterranean, yet falls markedly short of introducing effective measures to de-escalate the longstanding tensions between Greece and Türkiye. While the document perceptively addresses the need for heightened engagement in the Eastern Mediterranean and highlights the myriad security challenges, including territorial disputes, migration issues, and the competition for energy resources, it lacks a clear actionable framework for mitigating the discord between these two member states.
Topic:
NATO, International Security, Bilateral Relations, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Turkey, Greece, and Eastern Mediterranean

7. COSCO in Piraeus: Investment Embeddedness and the Question of Chinese 'influence'

Author:
Konstantinos Tsimonis and Andrew J. Nathan
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
Professor Tsimonis will present his research around the landmark investment of China Ocean Shipping Company (COSCO) in the port of Piraeus and discuss its political, social, economic and environmental repercussions. The speaker will approach COSCO's investment as an embedded phenomenon and unpack the agency of local, regional and global actors in order to assess the question of 'Chinese influence'. This talk will introduce to the Weatherhead audience the context of Chinese activities and policies in Greece. The speaker will also discuss the challenge and the necessity for developing independent China expertise in countries with no China studies tradition, as a way to mitigate the political risks arising from the PRC's global economic outreach.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Economy, Investment, and Foreign Influence
Political Geography:
China, Greece, and Asia

8. WHY DO MASS EXPULSIONS STILL HAPPEN?

Author:
Meghan Garrity
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:
January 30, 2023 marks 100 years since the signing of the Lausanne Convention—a treaty codifying the compulsory “population exchange” between Greece and Turkey. An estimated 1.5 million people were forcibly expelled from their homes: over one million Greek Orthodox Christians from the Ottoman Empire and 500,000 Muslims from Greece. This population exchange was not the first such agreement, but it was the first compulsory exchange. Turkish nationals of the Greek Orthodox religion and Muslim Greek nationals did not have the option to remain. Further, Greek and Muslim refugees who had fled the Ottoman Empire and Greece, respectively, were not allowed to return to their homes. Only small populations in Istanbul and Western Thrace were exempted from the treaty.
Topic:
Human Rights, History, Refugees, International Criminal Court (ICC), Rome Statute, Rohingya, Geneva Convention, and Lausanne Convention
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Turkey, Greece, Germany, Nigeria, Myanmar, and Niger

9. The Normalization of Political Violence and the 2023 Legislative Elections in Greece

Author:
Niki Papadogiannaki and Vicky Yiagopoulou
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
Elections in Greece come less than three months after the deadly head-on train collision at Tempe in the north of the country that killed 57 passengers. The incident on 28 February triggered demonstrations against the government of Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, chastising him for initially blaming the collision on “tragic human error.”1 The unrest that followed caused the government to delay announcing the election date, which had been anticipated in April. Due to a new voting law, the elections will be held under a proportional representation system, wherein the leading party needs to secure at least 46% to have a chance to win absolute majority in parliament. However, this percentage has not been reached in the last three decades,2 making a clear victory on 21 May unlikely.
Topic:
Political Violence, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Protests
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

10. Lessons Learned from the Development of Turkish IR: A View from Greece

Author:
Kyriakos Mikelis
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
The essay addresses an outsider's perception of the characteristics and dynamics of the IR field/discipline in Turkey. How may this country serve as a role model or, at the very least, as a source of inspiration, reflection, or evaluation of the field's development in other local/national settings? In this respect, Greece is chosen as a case study. Βy addressing and assessing Turkish self-reflection and the search for disciplinary identity within Turkish IR scholarship, what can be learned, on behalf of Greek IR scholarship, regarding both Greece's and Turkey's social scientific development regarding foreign affairs/policy? A major theme discovered is the acknowledgement of the limitations of the dependency/vulnerability-centered explanations for the development of IR.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Academia, and Social Science
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Greece

11. The Greek Defence Sector: Turning the Page?

Author:
Antonis Kamaras
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
From the 1980s to the 2000s, Greece’s defence industry was mismanaged and failed to utilize Greece’s high defence expenditures to become innovative. The impact of Greece’s fiscal crisis and the subsequent expansion of the Turkish threat mean that both economics and geopolitics now favour an invigorated Greek defence sector. The first major weapons procurement programme since the end of Greece’s fiscal crisis has not meaningfully involved the Greek defence sector. Yet the sector’s future prospects have improved, assured by the need for the sector to be financially viable and internationally competitive and by the broader awareness of the defence sector as a building block in national defence. The EU’s growing role in Europe’s collective defence, driven by continent-wide geopolitical developments and industrial imperatives, will also boost the prospects of the Greek defence sector. Mutually reinforcing obstacles still hamper the Greek defence sector’s progress: (a) a polity which privileges distribution over capital investments in its fiscal choices, and (b) an officer corps which lacks the degree of autonomy to co-create novel defence solutions together with the Greek defence sector. Despite these obstacles, the ongoing Turkish threat engenders national insecurity within Greece to such an extent that it can drive the sustainable growth of the Greek defence sector.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Geopolitics, Innovation, and Defense Industry
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Greece

12. Domestic implementation of European Court of Human Rights’ judgments related to immigration in Greece

Author:
Dia Anagnostou
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
In recent decades, the European Court of Human Rights has evolved into a leading judicial body which examines and identifies violations committed by states in the management of migration and asylum. Greece is one of the countries that has been condemned in a large number of judgements relating to administrative detention, reception and accommodation conditions, the treatment of migrants by the police and border authorities, the asylum system, the treatment of unaccompanied minors, and human trafficking. This paper examines the Greek authorities’ compliance with the ECtHR judgements in this area. It focuses on general measures which relate to broader changes in the legislation and case law, as well as on administrative practice in Greece. It analyses the obstacles and difficulties present in this area, and it makes policy recommendations. It argues that a new approach is needed to Greece’s compliance with regard to the human rights of migrants and refugees. This approach should be focused on structural reforms and it should have the express commitment of the country’s political leadership. It would require systematic efforts to instil a new mindset within the public administration that is supportive of human rights protection as a priority and democratic responsibility, rather than as an externally imposed, necessary evil.
Topic:
Migration, Refugees, Judiciary, Asylum, and European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR)
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

13. The Syrian Civil War Twelve Years On: Can There Be a Constructive Role for Greece?

Author:
Ioannis N. Grigoriadis and Loukas I. Papavasileiou
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Continual and ever-growing foreign involvement led to the internationalization of the armed conflict and turned Syria into a battleground for the strategic competition of several powers. The Kremlin has long viewed Hafez and Bashar al-Assad as indispensable partners in the Middle East and has repeatedly offered its diplomatic and military support in an attempt to achieve its own strategic objectives. Given the destabilizing effects the unending Syrian crisis has had on Middle Eastern and Eastern Mediterranean security, Greece maintains a profound interest in the resolution of the conflict. Greece appointed a Special Envoy for Syria in May 2020 with a view to reinvigorating its policy vis-à-vis the Syrian crisis. Greece’s successful re-engagement with key Arab countries and improved relations with other regional actors could pave the way for a more prominent Greek role in Syria. This could entail reinforcing its diplomatic cooperation with the EU Delegation to Syria, leading the EU humanitarian relief effort following the devastating earthquakes that hit Syria on 6 February 2023, and formulating a realistic and forward-looking strategy for the future of the Syrian people, including provisions for the voluntary repatriation of refugees and the protection of minority rights.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Refugees, Political stability, Syrian War, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Greece, and Syria

14. Drafting Greece’s “Internal Security Strategy” – Challenges and Prospects

Author:
Panayotis Tsakonas and Triandafyllos Karatrantos
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The radical change in the structure of the international system caused a scientific and political revolution in the definition and concept of security. Issues such as the climate crisis, forced displacements and extreme nationalism have led the interest and especially the debate on achieving security from external to internal threats. The focus is now on the main “object of reference” of security which is not the state or some sub-state groups, but “the individual”/”the citizen”. In the modern globalized environment, all the risks that threaten the daily life of citizens require dealing with the concept of security in a “holistic” and, at the same time, more “human-centered” way. Greece lacks an institutional document for the internal security strategy. There are structural reasons that make a comprehensive reform of the internal security sector necessary. In addition to the established weaknesses and inadequacies of specific agencies and/or services of the internal security system, the overall organic interconnection between crisis management services is still required. The first lesson from the effects of the pandemic is the need for the evolution of Greece into a “Modern National Security State”. Greece, due to its geographical position on the external borders of the EU, as well as the crises it has experienced in recent years, faces a series of internal security threats and challenges. Security and respect for fundamental rights are not mutually conflicting but coherent and complementary objectives. The Strategy will help build an internal security governance system and a central coordination process.
Topic:
Security, Governance, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

15. Diplomatic scramble: Greek foreign policy towards Libya

Author:
Constantine Capsaskis
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Libya became a country of immediate interest to Greece following its 2019 Memorandum of Understanding with Turkey. Greece engaged in a flurry of diplomatic activity in the aftermath of the MoU, both within Libya and the wider region, to counter Turkey’s momentum with Tripoli. The complex political situation in Libya and its many facets (proxy conflicts between regional and international players, competition for energy resources, and other factors including religion) compound the difficulties confronting Greek efforts to shield Greece’s interests. European division over Libya has led Greece to seek other bilateral approaches, primarily through cooperation with France and Egypt. Turkey’s attempts to normalize relations with its regional interlocutors (primarily Egypt, Israel and Greece) following the devastating earthquake that struck the country in February 2023 may yet change conditions on the ground in Libya, though it is still too early to tell.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Turkey, Greece, Libya, and North Africa

16. The Cyclical Behaviour of Government Spending for Social Protection: Is the OECD Methodology Robust?

Author:
Aleksandr Arsenev, Philipp Heimberger, and Torben Schütz
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
Spending elasticities measure the reaction of different government spending components to the business cycle. They are important inputs for fiscal forecasts, and they are particularly relevant in the context of European Union (EU) fiscal rules, as elasticity estimates enter the estimation of fiscal space. This paper analyses the sensitivity of the estimation method used by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the European Commission to obtain government spending elasticities by focusing on 11 EU countries in the 1995-2020 period. Our results suggest that spending elasticities are sensitive to small variations in data and model specification. For most EU countries, we reject the assumption that only unemployment spending responds to cyclical variations. While unemployment spending is indeed a major driver of counter-cyclical social spending, other categories of social spending also show signs of responding to the business cycle.
Topic:
Budget, European Union, Finance, Macroeconomics, Public Debt, Social Spending, Public Spending, and Fiscal Deficit
Political Geography:
Europe, Greece, France, Poland, Germany, Denmark, Romania, Spain, Italy, Sweden, Austria, and Czechia

17. A Decade of Greek Immigration and Asylum Policy (2015-2024): A Balancing Act of EU Participation, Humanitarian Obligations, and Security Concerns

Author:
Angelo Tramountanis
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
Greece was at the forefront of the European Union’s (EU) immigration and asylum policy implementation during the migration crisis of 2015–2016. Throughout this period, it is estimated that more than one million migrants and refugees traveled through Greece, moving toward other Western European countries.1 The sheer size of this transient population—and its multifaceted political and social implications for European countries—prompted the EU to attempt to curb the influx of immigrants to Greece and, by extension, to its member states. In 2023, almost a decade later, a tragic shipwreck near Pylos claiming over 600 lives, as well as ongoing discussions by several actors and organizations regarding Greece’s migrant pushbacks, has brought the country under the European spotlight once again.
Topic:
European Union, Refugees, Borders, Asylum, Humanitarian Response, and Migration Policy
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

18. A Road with Many Thorns: Current Challenges to the Turkish-Greek Relations

Author:
George Karatasios
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In our September-October issue of Turkeyscope, now appearing together with our November-December issue due to the outbreak of the Gaza War, George Karatasios analyzes the contours of Turkish-Greek relations, past and present. Given the number of ongoing disputes these two nations have, he suggests focusing on manageable problems as a path for building trust and conflict resolution.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Trust-building
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Greece, and Eastern Mediterranean

19. Greece and Tripartite Partnerships in the Eastern Mediterranean: A Recommended Policy for Greek Strategic Interests

Author:
Dimitrios Grekos
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
The Eastern Mediterranean is an area of strategic importance not only in the peripheral but worldwide. In recent years, the field of the Eastern Mediterranean has entered a new dynamic since there are trends of Tripartite Partnerships between neighboring states. These partnerships are political, cultural, economic, energy (due to the hydrocarbon surveys), immigration, and especially at the level of dealing with common security threats. By conducting tripartite partnerships, Greece achieved balance while playing a major role in the region. The study examined this Greek initiative in the sectors above under the vacuum left by the great powers (Russia and the USA). Greek foreign policy, through Tripartite Partnerships, defended its strategic interests and shaped the region’s good relationships. The analysis of this policy employed the theory of neoclassical realism in order to present the international and internal (state) system and their impact on the Greek initiative of tripartite cooperation with the states of the Eastern Mediterranean. According to said method, a recommended policy for Greek strategic interests was designed, which may be utilized by other regional states.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Law, Partnerships, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Greece and Eastern Mediterranean

20. An Island Divided: Next Steps for Troubled Cyprus

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Greek and Turkish Cypriots have moved farther apart since a failed summit in 2017, hampering cooperation in several important matters and increasing tensions in the eastern Mediterranean. Hopes for reunifying Cyprus are faint at present, but the parties can still work toward more modest goals.
Topic:
Sovereignty, Bilateral Relations, European Union, Reunification, and Cooperation
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Greece, Cyprus, and Mediterranean

21. Israel’s Priorities in the Eastern Mediterranean:The Tango with Turkey Has Limits

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The first foreign minister to visit Greece after the swearing-in of Kyriakos Mitsotakis’ new government was Israel’s Eli Cohen – a sign that both countries see the importance of their relationship and the new alignment of forces in the Eastern Mediterranean. While new avenues of dialogue are opening between Jerusalem and Ankara – including a planned visit by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, officially confirmed by Erdogan – Israel’s priorities should remain firm. Pressure to agree to a gas pipeline to Turkey should be resisted. Regarding national security, the partnership with Greece and Cyprus is a game changer, giving Israel vital strategic depth during a conflict. Hence the importance of cooperation with both and support for Cyprus’s freedom to make its own foreign policy decisions.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, National Security, Partnerships, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Greece, Palestine, and Eastern Mediterranean

22. Nationalism, enmity and reconciliation: Turkish party supporters’ polarized views on Greece

Author:
Evangelos Areteos
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Supporters of the current government in Turkey have significantly stronger nationalistic attitudes towards Greece and Greeks than the supporters of the opposition parties. Turkey is extremely polarized along party lines. Religion and education significantly shape perceptions in both Turkey and Greece. In Greece, the levels of nationalism towards Turkey are significantly higher than they are in Turkey towards Greece, but vary far less across the political spectrum.
Topic:
Nationalism, Public Opinion, Reconciliation, AKP, and Polarization
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Greece

23. Cooperation against the odds: Getting small firms to work together in unfavourable circumstances

Author:
Kira Gartzou-Katsouyanni
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
How can we get small firms to work together in order to achieve mutually beneficial outcomes, despite adverse circumstances? This policy paper provides an answer to this question that could be useful both to policymakers and to local stakeholders seeking to undertake innovative, cooperative economic activities in their area. Based on evidence from eight case studies within the Greek agri-food and tourism sectors, I argue that a small group of local actors, whom I call ‘institutional entrepreneurs’, usually play a key role in catalysing the emergence of cooperation at the local level. Their strategies and experiences carry valuable insights. I also outline the characteristics that macro-level institutional frameworks need to have if they are to facilitate local cooperation. These characteristics can inform the design of institutions at both the domestic and the EU level. The paper’s findings could be relevant to people interested in local development, but also to those concerned with boosting the productivity and export orientation of the Greek economy as a whole. After all, cooperation can improve the performance of small firms, and it is thus an important ingredient for inclusive growth in countries with a lot of small firms, such as Greece.
Topic:
Development, Economy, Business, and Production
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

24. Adapting to New Realities: Israel’s foreign policy in post-Netanyahu times

Author:
Gabriel Haritos
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Israel had to adapt to the revised objectives of the Biden administration in the Middle East and to update its coordination with Russia on the Syria front. The war in Ukraine has reconfigured Israel’s relations with the US and Russia. Israel’s reluctance to provide arms to Ukraine has allowed Russian-Israeli coordination to continue in Syria. The energy crisis triggered by the Russo-Ukrainian war led the US to revise its stance towards Saudi Arabia. The US-Iran talks ground to a halt in Vienna in the light of the growing ties between Iran and Russia. Israel took advantage of the new state of affairs, encouraging the rapprochement between Washington and Riyadh and countering the possibility of the US reopening its consulate in East Jerusalem. In coordination with the US, Israel has promoted the deepening of the Abraham Accords and drawn India into the new Middle East reality through the new I2U2 mechanism. Thanks to carefully managed communication, the Bennett-Lapid government was able to restore diplomatic relations with Turkey while maintaining close cooperation with Greece and Cyprus. It would seem advisable to put in place additional safeguards to maintain the quality of Athens-Nicosia -Jerusalem relations, similar to those which are expected to accompany the revamped relations between Israel and Turkey.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, Middle East, Israel, Greece, and United States of America

25. Using RRF resources to kick-start a job-rich recovery in Greece

Author:
Manos Matsaganis and Georgios Manalis
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) is a golden opportunity for those member states that were most badly hit first by the debt crisis then by the pandemic. Greece, one of the largest beneficiaries in per capita terms, is due to receive very significant resources that can help arrest the decline of the 2010s. Can these resources be spent wisely and efficiently enough to kickstart the process of inclusive and sustainable growth? This paper briefly reviews the Greek National Recovery and Resilience Plan (Greece 2.0), assessing its potential contribution to upgrading the economy’s growth model, enhancing skills, and boosting employment. In 2007-19, total investment in Greece shrank by a stunning 70% in real terms. Over the same period, public investment fell by 62%, business investment by 44%, and household investment (on housing, mostly) by 89%. Under-investment constrains growth and undermines the future prospects of the Greek economy. The Recovery and Resilience Facility offers Greece a unique opportunity to bridge the investment gap, giving a boost to the sustainable recovery of the Greek economy. Technically, Greece 2.0, the country’s National Recovery and Resilience Plan is competently drafted, as its favourable reception by the European Commission indicates. Still, critical issues abound. In this sense, Greece 2.0 embodies the contradictions of the current juncture. On the one hand, there is a consensus that the Greek economy should rebalance, by pursuing a growth strategy that relies much more on exports than in the recent past, and much less on domestic consumer demand fuelled by debt. On the other hand, the legacy of the past weighs heavily on social and political actors, limiting their room for manoeuvre. The list is daunting. It remains to be seen how the above will play out over the next few years.
Topic:
Debt, Economy, Crisis Management, Resilience, and Economic Recovery
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

26. Georgian-Greek Relations: Building a Strategic Dimension

Author:
Ioannis N. Grigoriadis and Mariam Gugulashvili
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The cordial bilateral relations between Greece and Georgia are mostly centered on the culture and education domains, with less progress achieved in the areas of the economy, foreign policy, and security. Greece can emerge as Georgia’s key supporter in its EU membership aspirations, with Greek experts and diplomatic circles contributing their experience to the country’s EU integration process. This support can be realized at both high and low levels, through EU Twinning projects and results-oriented memoranda between state institutions to import best practices, so Georgia can successfully carry out the required democratization reforms and implement the EU Association Agreement effectively. As the international system becomes more multipolar and the strategic significance of the Black Sea and Caucasus regions increases, Greece and Georgia should work to deepen their ties and build interest-oriented synergies in order to forge a strategic alliance. The promotion of Western and European interests can be significantly aided by a democratic Georgia on the road to European integration and a resurgent Greece with a stronger regional presence in the Black Sea and Caucasus.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Economy
Political Geography:
Europe, Greece, and Georgia

27. Greece and Turkey in the world today: the public’s view

Author:
Ioannis N. Grigoriadis, Panagiota Manoli, and Evangelos Areteos
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The Policy Paper by Ioannis N. Grigoriadis, Senior Research Fellow, Head of ELIAMEP Turkey Programme; Associate Professor, University of Bilkent; Panagiota Manoli, Research Fellow, ELIAMEP; Assistant Professor of Political Economy of International Relations, University of Peloponnese and Evangelos Areteos, Research Associate at ELIAMEP Turkey Programme, highlights the main findings of the third joint poll in Greece and Turkey, which took place in the first ten days of May 2022. Among other things, it aims to capture and compare the perceptions of Greek and Turkish public opinion regarding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the role of the United States and NATO in European security, and Greek and Turkish identity.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, NATO, and Public Opinion
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Greece

28. Local community views on Marine Protected Areas on Greek islands

Author:
Lydia Avrami, Nicolas Demertzis, Antonis Armenakis, and Dmitra Syrou
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are usually designated in areas with intense human activity. An MPA is therefore a complex socioeconomic system whose success and/or failure, and ability to deliver environmental, social and economic benefits, depend on local communities and their sensitivities. This paper examines how recently designated MPAs on three islands in the Cyclades group (Kythnos, Milos and Santorini), with differently structured local economies and levels of touristic development, are perceived by their local communities. Data are drawn from a phone survey of local residents, and the results show that the awareness, attitudes and perceptions of the local groups differ significantly depending on the area and their stake in the MPA. How much local communities know about the MPA regulatory framework and its location, past experiences and socioeconomic factors are deemed good predictors for the local communities’ behaviors towards the MPAs. The positive interplay between the operation of an MPA and the development of scuba diving is also acknowledged, although the perceived trade-off between marine protection and fishers’ revenue remains the main challenge facing MPA implementation. The paper’s findings highlight the urgent need to deal with the information and knowledge deficit, and to bridge the gap between the perceptions and expectations of local communities and the MPAs’ actual output. Applying a participatory approach to MPA decision-making and operation would build capacity for effective implementation. Thus, the delimitation of the protection zones within the MPAs, and the provision of specific constraints, should be based on both ecological and socioeconomic criteria.
Topic:
Environment, Natural Resources, Public Opinion, Regulation, and Ecology
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

29. Regional power competition in the Eastern Mediterranean: the return of naval power and the changes technology brings

Author:
Vassilis Nedos
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Energy games and the territorialization of maritime zones are the main reasons for the renewed arms race and regional competition in the East Mediterranean. The East Mediterranean is home to quite diverse fleets in terms of capabilities and technology. In terms of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) field capabilities, Israel is the local champion while Turkey is an emerging power; the remaining regional actors lag behind. Top-tier technology items manufactured mostly by the US aeronautical industry are either too expensive or are restricted to local actors; as a result, Israel and subsequently Turkey have developed indigenous capabilities over the last few years, which are highly exportable. Even though the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the war now raging in the country has to some extent overshadowed the rising tensions in the East Mediterranean (which culminated in the standoff between the Greek and Turkish fleets between August and November 2020), there are still issues that need to be resolved which stem directly from the military build-up and the power balance, which has been seriously disturbed. Greece is already invested in catching up in terms both of numbers and technological capabilities. Nonetheless, to date, these efforts have failed to close the gap for two main reasons: Firstly, the agreements signed so far include little or no transfer of technology and know-how; Secondly, the local capabilities in both ship building and the aeronautical industry suffer from the perennial Greek state maladies. Investing in local AI technologies and solving the “Gordian knot” of the shipyards are prerequisites for developing local infrastructure capable of competing regionally in the long run.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Navy, Strategic Competition, and Regional Power
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Greece, and Mediterranean

30. Achieving qualitative superiority: Greek conscription and the Turkish threat

Author:
Antonis Kamaras and Nikos Stournaras
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
This policy paper argues that, by emulating its peer countries, wealthy, small to medium sized democracies facing national security threats, in Northern Europe and the Middle East (namely Finland, Norway, Denmark, Sweden and Israel), Greece can modernize its conscript component and thus attain qualitative superiority over the Turkish Army. Turkey’s conscript model is riven by deep-seated class, geographical and ethnic cleavages, giving to Greek political and military leaders the opportunity to gain a qualitative military edge through judicious modernization of the Greek conscript model. Such a modernization is eminently feasible today as Greece’s economic crisis has created the political space to overcome resistance to the reform of conscription. By contrast, Greece’s main national security threat, Turkey, belongs to that group of authoritarian or illiberal countries which have suboptimal conscription models, featuring evasion of conscript service by the well-educated, inefficient training and harsh, counterproductive treatment of those conscripts who do serve. Greece, also due to its post WWII illiberalism or authoritarianism, and not unlike Taiwan which has a similar legacy, has not infused its conscript component with demanding training and operational standards, roles and missions. The time is ripe, due to the resurgence of the Turkish threat and Greece’s economic crisis, which has removed many of the country’s outdated shibboleths, to modernise Greek conscription, as its peer countries have done, and thus acquire an Army qualitatively superior to that of Turkey. By doing so, Greek policy-makers will decisively strengthen Greece’s deterrence and produce positive externalities for the consripts themselves . Indeed, the more effective conscription becomes in operational terms for the Greek Armed Forces, the greater the benefits to be reaped in civilian life.
Topic:
Security, National Security, Armed Forces, Deterrence, and Conscription
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Greece

31. Household Wealth Inequalities in the wake of the Greek Debt Crisis

Author:
Apostolos Fasianos
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Despite the renowned interest in wealth disparities, the distribution of wealth in Greece is largely understudied. This study maps the levels, dynamics, and composition of household wealth using data from the three waves of the Household Finance and Consumption Survey for Greece for the period after the debt crisis of 2009-10 till 2017. The evidence suggests that the richest 1% of the population holds roughly as much wealth as the poorest 50%, while the richest 10% holds about four times the wealth of the poorest 50%. Most inequality indicators employed indicate increasing trends in wealth disparities between 2009 and 2017. During this period, average and median wealth holdings decreased by about one third, and the share of financially fragile households increased by about 20%. Estimates from factor inequality decompositions suggest that, although relatively evenly distributed, housing asset holdings explain much of the increase in overall wealth inequality in Greece, followed by self-employment business equity; financial assets play a negligible role. Financial wealth inequality is much more pronounced than housing wealth inequality in Greece. The findings of the paper carry important implications for the design of appropriate policies aiming at reducing wealth inequalities and strengthening financial resilience.
Topic:
Debt, Income Inequality, Economic Crisis, and Wealth
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

32. Transparency policy in Greece: From citizen empowerment to anticorruption and open data

Author:
Calliope Spanou and Manto Lampropoulou
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
This paper aims to provide an overview of the transparency policy in Greece with a focus on public administration. To this end, we explore and critically analyse the origins and the state of play of transparency policy in line with the key components of the current policy agenda, namely: open government, access to documents and digital information, internal audit, and lobbying activities. The goal is to identify (i) the way by which transparency policy has been embedded in the domestic agenda of state reform and evolved over time and (ii) the processes and mechanisms through which transparency policy is currently formulated, implemented and evaluated. The findings of the analysis show that the focus of the transparency policy has shifted over time and has included a wide range of both symbolic and pragmatic initiatives, such as citizen empowerment and participation (1980s), control of public administration (1990s-2000s), open/ digital governance and open data (2000s), anti-corruption (2010s) and public sector digitalization (2020s). In this respect, the term “transparency” seems to have embraced a wide variety of concerns, objectives, procedures, and institutions. Like other policy domains, the fragmentation of the legislative framework and competent institutions has been a constant feature of the domestic transparency policies, which has hampered policy coherence and co-ordination over time. Accordingly, the formulation, implementation and monitoring of the transparency policy implicates multiple actors across central government together with the growing influence of external experts during the past years. Τhe role of civil society and citizen participation in transparency policy remain weak. Recently, an effort has been put forth to centralize control mechanisms and interconnect existing platforms in order to alleviate the observed weaknesses. Yet, beyond the institutional and technical improvements, the role of transparency for democracy and accountability remains in question and needs to be brought back into the debate.
Topic:
Corruption, Citizenship, and Transparency
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

33. Holding the Hard-line: What is behind Iran’s seizure of Greek ships in Arabian Gulf?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
On May 27, Iran seized two Greek tankers, named “Prudent Warrior” and “Delta Poseidon”, in the Arabian Gulf. Forces from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) descended on the tankers and ordered them to sail to Bandar Abbas port. Onboard the tankers were 49 crew members. Greece described the operation as ‘piracy’. The seizure seems to be a reprisal for Greece’s role earlier in the month assisting the US impounding a Russian-flagged tanker transporting Iranian oil and carrying 19 crew.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Sanctions, Maritime, and Shipping
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Greece

34. Greco-Turkish relations at their lowest ebb

Author:
Alexia Kefalas
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
What really happened on 6th October in Prague? This question has been on the minds of European analysts since the dinner held in the Czech capital on the side-lines of the first summit meeting of the European Political Community. Versions vary between the international press and the 44 heads of state and government.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Greece

35. What is the agenda for the Eastern Mediterranean?

Author:
Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
A more coherent common foreign policy agenda is needed to enhance the strategic significance of the Athens-Jerusalem-Nicosia partnership.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Peace
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Israel, Greece, Cyprus, and Mediterranean

36. Between Erdogan, Mitsotakis, and Biden: The Evolving Ankara-Athens-Washington Triangle

Author:
Gallia Lindenstrauss, Christoph Becker, and Remi Daniel
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
“The Prime Minister of Greece no longer exists for me,” declared Turkey’s President, reflecting a break in the rapprochement seen over the past year between Ankara and Athens. What lies behind this change of approach, and how does this affect Israel’s relations with Eastern Mediterranean states?
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, and Leadership
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Greece, North America, United States of America, and Mediterranean

37. Turkey's ‘Precious Loneliness’ vs. Greece's Multilateralism

Author:
Hay Eytan Cohen Yanaraocak
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In our latest issue of Turkeyscope, Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak discusses the latest tension in the Eastern Mediterranean between Turkey and Greece. By analyzing the foreign policy strategies of both countries the essay reveals Turkey's shrinking leverage on the West and its ramifications for the Turkish national security.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, National Security, Bilateral Relations, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Greece

38. The US economic presence in Greece – George Tzogopoulos

Author:
George Tzogopoulos
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The excellent status of Greek-American relations is reflected in the economic sphere. The stock of American Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Greece has increased in the recent years. The technology sector has captured the attention of American digital giants, which have displayed a tendency to choose to build some of their innovation hubs in Greece. Although this is not a new phenomenon, the last few years have seen several new investments, as well as an increasing number of tech-labs in which Greece’s digital ecosystem flourishes. Over and beyond Greece’s digital transformation, the country’s shift toward green energy has sparked the interest of American companies, keen to explore opportunities. In tandem, the US is a critical supplier of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Greece, which is, in addition, slowly acquiring the infrastructure capacity to function as an artery through which American LNG can be transported to other markets in the Balkans. Greek ship-owners are playing a significant role in the new energy market. The investment of ONEX in Syros is crucial for Greek-American co-operation in the maritime sector and could possibly be replicated in the Elefsis shipyards. The real estate sector appears attractive for American companies. Focused principally on the acquisition and/or renovation of hotels, this is expected to boost the tendency of American tourists to return to Greece after the two-years hiatus imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic. The positive momentum could also encourage more American students to study in Greece. The volume of Greek-American trade has steadily increased since 2016, with Greece maintaining a diminishing surplus.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, Economy, Trade, Real Estate, and Digital Transition
Political Geography:
Europe, Greece, North America, and United States of America

39. How to make I.T. in Greek Manufacturing: Evidence and Policy Recommendations

Author:
Sofia Anyfantaki
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Greece has so far failed to shift its production structure towards more complex, high value-added activities, incorporating knowledge-intensive practices. Given the country’s low performance in innovation and knowledge diffusion relative to EU peers, we focus on two specific problem areas of Greek industry: skills and management practices. First, we provide an in-depth look at skills indicators to identify the scope for action, particularly in addressing mismatch. Second, we use firm-level data from the World Management Survey to give an overview of management practices in Greek industry and explore the quality of these practices and their association with productivity. We have two novel findings: first, we document that Greece has the highest overskilling for professional occupations in the OECD; second, we show that Greek firms do best in areas requiring unitary decision making, and worst in areas requiring teamwork and synergies. We complement our analysis with data from a new survey and examine structural characteristics of innovation and technology adoption. The collection of our empirical findings provides valuable input into concrete policy proposals to increase productivity in Greek manufacturing.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Manufacturing, Innovation, Industry, and Information Technology
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

40. The Eastern Mediterranean conflict: From Turkey-Greece confrontation to regional power struggles

Author:
Toni Alaranta
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
For several decades, the Eastern Mediterranean confict consisted of a three-part struggle over territorial wa- ters, sovereignty and exclusionary national narratives between Turkey, Greece, and the Republic of Cyprus. Its origins can be traced as far back as the Greek War of Independence in the 1830s, the Lausanne Peace Trea- ty determining the current borders of the Republic of Turkey in 1923, and the failed bicommunal federal state established in Cyprus in 1960. Regarding the Cyprus confict, the best – but ultimately lost – opportunity to resolve the issue was the 2004 Annan Plan for a bicom- munal federal state. Today, the Eastern Mediterranean confict is a multi-level and multi-actor power strug- gle that is unlikely to wane any time soon. In addition to Turkey, Greece, and Cyprus, it also includes actors such as France, Italy, Libya, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates. Tis Briefng Paper frst identifes the main actors involved, and then proceeds to analyze the key de- terminants of the confict. Te paper concludes that tension in the Eastern Mediterranean will continue in the foreseeable future. A full military confrontation is unlikely, however, as NATO can provide a necessary platform for a Greece-Turkey de-escalation. Tis is likely to prevent an actual war, but will not be enough to produce any lasting solution in the increasingly confict-ridden Eastern Mediterranean regional power struggle.
Topic:
Security, Conflict, Regionalism, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Greece

41. Making Connectivity Work: Transforming the Port of Thessaloniki into a Top Hub for Southeast Europe and Beyond

Author:
Panagiotis Paschalidis and Georgia Anastasiou
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The Thessaloniki Port has all the necessary elements to become a top regional, South-East European and international trade hub. The Thessaloniki Port Authority has adopted extrovert and proactive policies for strengthening cooperation with neighboring countries. The Thessaloniki Port’s impact can become even stronger if it is approached and designed on the basis of the notion of connectivity. Connectivity entails the upgrading of both technical and material aspects such as trade and commercial infrastructure (hard module) as well as the institutional and policy framework of cooperation such as agreements at the bilateral and multilateral level with neighboring countries (soft module). The drastic normalization of relations between Greece and North Macedonia can be viewed as an example of a comprehensive upgrading of connectivity with tangible benefits for the improvement of the Port’s regional and international role.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Infrastructure, Trade, and Port
Political Geography:
Europe, Greece, and Thessaloniki

42. Emigration and Fiscal Austerity in the Greek Depression

Author:
Eugenia Vella
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
What is the role of emigration in a deep recession when the government implements fiscal consolidation? Our macroeconomic model simulations show that fiscal austerity accounts for 1/3 of the output drop in the Greek Depression and more than 10% of migration outflows. In a no-emigration counterfactual scenario, the model predicts a smaller output fall by 20%. We also uncover a novel bi-directional link between emigration and austerity. On the one hand, labour income tax hikes induce prolonged migration outflows, while spending cuts exert a smaller effect. On the other hand, emigration increases the required tax hike and time to meet a given debt target due to endogenous revenue leakage. In terms of unemployment, temporary gains from emigration are reversed over time.
Topic:
Austerity, Fiscal Policy, Emigration, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

43. Citizens’ views on fake news and false narratives about the European Union – FACTS project

Author:
George Andreou
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
There is more unison than discrepancy in Greek citizens’ perceptions regarding the European Union. National identity continues to shape and frame the way most Greeks perceive the EU, interpret its activities, and evaluate its role. Participants have a positive image of the EU. However, there is a widespread feeling of disappointment towards an EU that “does not function on equal terms for all”. The general public lacks basic knowledge about the EU and what it stands for, about the respective roles of the Union and its member states, as well as about the ways EU and national officials engage in policy-making. Greeks are very vulnerable to disinformation about the EU, as relevant and reliable information is scarce in the domestic media. Many mobilized citizens feel that information from EU sources is not addressed to all, but only to those who have a strong personal and/or professional motivation. Non-mobilized citizens appear quite distant from information regarding the EU. Lack of solidarity between member states breeds apathy and a lack of interest in the EU among EU citizens. The most effective strategy against disinformation is improving communication between the EU and its citizens, and cultivating trust.
Topic:
Public Opinion, European Union, Disinformation, Misinformation, and Fake News
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

44. Greece, Russia and the EU: The Way Forward

Author:
George Tzogopoulos
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The visit of PM Mitsotakis to Sochi could open a new chapter in Greek-Russian relations as bilateral deals are in the pipeline. The Greek position is firm and unchanging: a normalization of EU-Russian relations would be in Europe’s best interests. The Greek government might be prepared to help bring about a new EU-Russia dialogue. The strengthening of Greek-American relations will not prevent Greece from employing a multidimensional foreign policy, vis-à-vis Russia, too. Stronger Greek-Russian relations could send a message to Turkey that some of its regional policies are alienating other actors. Greek-Russian relations enjoy greater historical depth than Turkish-Russian relations. While its strategic commitment to NATO and the EU remains steadfast, Greece is a valuable partner for Russia. Greece is in the process of diversifying its sources of natural gas imports, but considers Russia a critical market.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, European Union, and Imports
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Greece

45. The Digital Markets Act (DMA): Between European autonomy and transatlantic cooperation

Author:
George Tzogopoulos
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Greece is seeking to unleash innovation and digitalization to stabilize its economy in the aftermath of the economic crisis and to recover from the pandemic. Greece is closely monitoring EU regulatory developments on digital affairs and adjusting its legislation accordingly. The proposed Digital Markets Act (DMA) is aligned behind the broader EU strategy of increasing European digital autonomy, an objective also endorsed by Greece. The DMA-related concerns of politicians, experts, representatives of the business sector and start-uppers are important and multifaceted, and ought to be taken into account in Europe (and Greece), especially with regard to the question of the DMA’s allegedly negative impact on innovation. It is in the interest of the EU (and Greece) to strike a balance between the emphasis on regulation and ‘gatekeepers’ on the one hand, and the need for enterprises and start-ups to benefit from services provided by digital giants (often for free) on the other. Combining the above with the pursuit of European digital autonomy is a demanding task. Although the DMA does not directly impact on Greek companies, the country is hoping for a smooth evolution in transatlantic relations during the Biden Presidency, both generally and in technological affairs. Greek start-ups envisage a boost in their US presence. The DMA proposal is inevitably complex; more time may be required for some EU member-states, including Greece, to actively join the debate.
Topic:
European Union, Transatlantic Relations, Autonomy, and Digital Markets Act (DMA)
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

46. Nudging for Recovery: Behavioral Economics and the implementation of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan

Author:
Demosthenes Kollias
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
With the National Recovery and Resilience Plan, Greece is presented with yet another opportunity to catch up with global trends. At the same time, behavioral economics are being established worldwide as a valuable asset in the policy maker’s toolkit. The paper -mainly focusing on taxation, labor market policy, and climate change- aims to examine the behavioral conundrum that creates frictions and inefficiency in the domains outlined above and to offer concrete and quantifiable policy proposals, in accordance with the goals of Greece 2.0. Regarding tax evasion, for example, one can estimate at least €1 billion in additional tax revenue if the proposals are implemented.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Tax Systems, Labor Market, and Economic Recovery
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

47. The role of Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean conflict zone: A country transformed and a glimpse into the future

Author:
Thrasyvoulos Terry Stamatopoulos
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Major population movements have contributed to the transformation of the social and political landscape in Turkey. Political Islam and a resurgent nationalism are now among the primary factors in decision-shaping. National ambition is visibly shifting away from close association with/participation in the West, coloured by a visible revival of a particular view of its Ottoman past. The resulting domestic political dynamics are affecting the composition and traditional Western orientation of major state institutions, including the military. The above translate in a trend of distancing of the Turkish Republic from its partners of the last century and of difficult if not hostile relations with the US, the EU and some of its member-states, and other states in the region. The shift to a multi-polar world is contributing to this trend, fueling ambitions of the Government, but also of a significant part of the broader elite, for an increased role of Turkey as a regional power and on the global stage. The US and its allies, and the EU and its member-states must engage in a serious evaluation of Turkey’s transformation and its strategic orientation, which they have yet to do.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, Conflict, and Islamism
Political Geography:
Turkey, Greece, United States of America, and Mediterranean

48. Skills mismatch in the Greek labour market: insights from a youth survey

Author:
Dimitris Katsikas
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
This policy paper presents some first findings from a youth survey relating to the skills mismatch in Greece. The survey was conducted in the context of the EEA Grants sponsored research project “Youth employment and gender equality: Mobilizing human capital for sustainable growth in Greece”, which is implemented by ELIAMEP and the Norwegian institute Fafo. The project seeks to document and analyze conditions in the Greek labour market, with an emphasis on the main barriers constraining young people’s access to it and on their progress once they get a job. Pending a more in-depth analysis of the findings, the preliminary evidence presented here adds some insights to the study of the skills mismatch phenomenon in Greece and helps us outline a few policy proposals. Skills mismatch is a significant problem for modern economies, as it leads to the inefficient utilization of the labour force, reducing productivity and growth potential. Research shows that Greece faces a serious skills mismatch problem. The findings of a youth survey presented here: Confirm the problem for the Greek labour market in both its vertical (over/ underqualification) and horizontal (field of study) dimensions. Show that skills mismatch affects graduates within every level and orientation (e.g., vocational training) of the educational system. Document young people’s belief that the educational system does not prepare them well for the labour market Show that skills mismatch is a serious obstacle to labour market entry for young people Confirm the lack of learning opportunities for those in employment, as well as the importance which young people attach to such opportunities for their professional progress. Reveal that young people often reject jobs due to low pay and unsatisfactory employment conditions, implying that reported skills shortages are also due to the terms of employment on offer. Policy responses should be multi-faceted, targeting both the educational system and the economy. Providing students with information about market developments and trends, and taking such information into account in the design of educational curricula (particularly in vocational training) is essential if the skills mismatch problem is to be addressed.
Topic:
Youth, Survey, Labor Market, and Skills
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

49. Greece’s Rise as a Trans-Mediterranean Power: Greece’s Eastern Mediterranean strategic shift to Europe-to-Africa and Europe-to-Middle East connectivity

Author:
Michaël Tanchum
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Greece stands at the threshold of a strategic shift that could see the Hellenic Republic become Europe’s geopolitical gatekeeper of the emerging East Africa-to-Europe and Middle East-to-Europe commercial corridors. Whether Greece becomes a European leader in trans-Mediterranean connectivity depends on Athens’ ability to develop its own position in East Africa-to-Europe and Middle East-to-Europe manufacturing value chains. Greece’s advancing green energy, innovation economy offers promising avenues to engage Egypt, Israel, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia in joint ventures that will transform Greece into a cutting-edge trans-Mediterranean actor. Greece’s new trans-Mediterranean profile is a strategic shift that will require the EU system to adjust its perception of Greece and incentivize closer coordination between Greece and other member states to facilitate joint venture investments in the two corridors. In the absence of such coordination, Athens will continue to deepen its relations with Egypt, Israel, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia while engaging with select EU member states. The extent to which Greece succeeds at industrial value chain integration will determine its role in the emerging trans-regional commercial architecture, and with it, Greece’s strategic standing within the European Union and the MENA region.
Topic:
European Union, Geopolitics, Trade, and Value Chains
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Middle East, Greece, and Mediterranean

50. Turkish drones, Greek challenges

Author:
Antonis Kamaras
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
This paper analyses the evolution of Turkey’s capacity to conduct drone-led warfare, an evolution driven by its assertive national security and foreign policy. It connects this feature of Turkey’s war-fighting capability to the debate on the impact drones have on the modern battlefield and on conflictual interstate relations. The paper attributes the underdevelopment of Greece’s drone and counter-drone capacity to the country’s fiscal crisis and to the civilian leadership’s unwillingness to make use of Greece’s alliances, geographical position and R&D ecosystem to develop such capacities. The analysis identifies the factors and processes that can accelerate the speed at which the Greek armed forces ready themselves to meet the evolving challenges—including drones—posed by their assertive neighbour.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, National Security, Drones, and Alliance
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Greece, and Mediterranean

51. Greek Diaspora in an uncertain world

Author:
Othon Anastasakis and Antonis Kamaras
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Greece’s fiscal crisis has energized its relationship with its diaspora in the last several years, after decades of decline, as well as reshaping the diaspora itself due to the massive crisis-driven migration. Research institutes as well as individual scholars have addressed key aspects of the diaspora and homeland relationship prior to and during the crisis. South East European Studies at Oxford (SEESOX) established in 2015 the Greek Diaspora Project, a dedicated research unit which has applied the well-established diaspora and development literature to the Greek case, in the crisis and post-crisis years. The opportunities for synergistic research between University centers and think tanks located in Greece and abroad, in satisfactorily addressing this crisis-driven transformation of the diaspora & homeland relationship, are compelling. SEESOX and ELIAMEP have thus decided to collaborate so they can catalyse such synergies both between themselves and with universities in Greece and abroad. SEESOX’s and ELIAMEP’s joint endeavor will be resolutely comparative as well as cross-disciplinary, reflecting both the requirements of a highly advanced diaspora studies prospectus as well as the respective strengths of the two partners.
Topic:
Migration, Diaspora, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

52. Revisiting and going beyond the EU-Turkey migration agreement of 2016: an opportunity for Greece to overcome being just “Europe’s aspis”

Author:
Kemal Kirisçi
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
In contrast to early last year, marked by a “border crisis” that erupted after the Turkish President finally put into action his long-standing threat to “open the border” for Syrian refugees, the year 2021 had a more promising start. The intense tensions in the Aegean Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean that followed the “border crisis” appear to be subsiding. The European Council statement of March 25 offers a possible framework for dialogue and diplomacy to take over from what was an annus horribilis in Greek-Turkish and EU-Turkish relations. Within this framework, room is also made for revisiting the EU-Turkey statement adopted in March 2016 to manage the aftermath of the European migration crisis that had seen a mass displacement of refugees and migrants primarily from Turkey to Greece and on to Europe. The statement has had many opponents and its implementation has faced multiple grievances and recriminations from both sides. Addressing and overcoming these challenges will call for extensive diplomatic effort, good will and take considerable time. In the interim, however, the emerging positive climate offers the possibility to explore expanding cooperation in a relatively successful but inadequately appreciated part of the EU-Turkey statement known as the Facility for Refugees in Turkey (FRIT). FRIT has been instrumental in supporting Syrian and other refugees in Turkey. It has been an important manifestation of burden-sharing with Turkey and has benefitted refugees in concrete terms. Advancing cooperation in this area would also help contribute to mutual confidence building and have a positive spill over into other more complicated issue areas in the migration domain and broader bilateral relations.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Migration, Treaties and Agreements, and Refugees
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Greece, and Mediterranean

53. Ahead of the five-party meeting: Convergences and bridgeable differences towards the reunification of Cyprus

Author:
George Kalpadakis
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The prospect of achieving a bizonal, bicommunal federal solution to the Cyprus problem was dealt a blow in the summer of 2017 when the unification talks between the two sides were suspended. The deterioration of the climate since then and the concomitant danger of abandoning the UN framework for a solution amid Turkey’s and the T/C side’s apparent insistence on a two-state solution, underscores the necessity to sketch out the convergences that have reportedly been achieved as well as the most significant issues on which the divergences appear to be bridgeable. Ahead of the upcoming informal five-party meeting on the Cyprus issue and the challenge of “rebooting” Crans Montana, this paper briefly outlines these issues based on a recently released UN document, indicating that they form an integral part of the elusive signposts towards a final settlement. Moreover, it refers to a number of ongoing and new civil society initiatives in support of peace and reunification.
Topic:
United Nations, Negotiation, Peace, Reconciliation, and Reunification
Political Geography:
Turkey, Greece, Cyprus, and Mediterranean

54. A fresh start for Greece-Libya relations: A view from Nicosia

Author:
Yiannis Ioannou
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Mitsotakis’ official visit to Libya and the reopening of the Greek embassy in Tripoli is a positive step towards normalization. The Libyan-Turkish memorandum on the delimitation of maritime zones will be difficult to revoke- but it must not be the only focal point of Greek-Libyan relations. The period leading to the December 24 elections in Libya is critical, and the situation in the country will remain volatile due to both internal and external challenges. Turkey retains a significant footprint in Libya with several political, military and economic implications. Libya is an important country for the European Union and remains a source of challenges for European security (irregular migration, terrorism). Greece can play an active mediating role in Libya, at a European, bilateral and regional level.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Migration, Terrorism, Bilateral Relations, and European Union
Political Geography:
Greece and Libya

55. The ‘Magnificent Seven’ of European Defence Integration

Author:
Spyros Blavoukos and Panos Politis-Lamprou
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Defence cooperation in the EU is growing, reflecting the European citizens’ view of the EU as a security enhancer. This policy paper takes stock of current developments and analyses the positions of seven EU member-states on defence integration (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Poland, Portugal, and Greece). The ‘Magnificent Seven’ are key players in this process, not least because of their large defence budgets and their engagement in the existing forms of cooperation. We examine the defence budget of the seven countries and their breakdown, as well as their participation in Battlegroups, EU military operations and missions, and PESCO projects. The analysis provides significant insights on the national defence priorities. The seven countries form overlapping clusters, according to their political status and aspirations in the European integration process, their economic condition, their geographical location, and their relations with the US and NATO. All of them are facing significant dilemmas and engage in subtle balancing acts, which explains the slow and arduous path of European defence integration.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Military Affairs, European Union, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Europe, Greece, France, Poland, Germany, Spain, Italy, and Portugal

56. Public Administration in the era of Covid-19: Policy Responses and Reforms underway

Author:
Manto Lampropoulou
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Covid-19 has caused an unprecedented shock to the state apparatus and has triggered major reforms in the administrative system of Greece. Policy responses to the pandemic have brought about several positive changes towards the modernization and de-bureaucratization of public administration. However, the pace and scale of change vary significantly. The pandemic has acted as a strong driver for the digital transformation of the public sector and the strengthening of e-government policies. Numerous administrative procedures were streamlined, digitalized and simplified, working conditions have become more flexible and several improvements have taken place in service delivery and state-citizen relations. The observed centralisation of decision-making and the often use of fast-track procedures have raised questions of democratic control, transparency and the rule of law, while the emergency measureshave been criticized for the threats they pose for the protection of citizens’ rights, individual liberties and personal data. A key challenge remains the integration the emergency measures of the covid-19 policy agenda into a longer-term programme of administrative reform in the post-covid era.
Topic:
Reform, Democracy, Rule of Law, Public Policy, Transparency, COVID-19, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

57. Turkey-Greece: From Maritime Brinkmanship to Dialogue

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In mid-2020, Turkey and Greece put their Mediterranean fleets on high alert, dramatically raising tensions in their long-running dispute over air, water, rock and now seabed gas deposits as well. Talks have been frustrating but remain the best way to contain the risk of conflict.
Topic:
Maritime Commerce, Territorial Disputes, Water, Maritime, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Greece, and Mediterranean

58. China’s Influence in Southeastern, Central, and Eastern Europe: Vulnerabilities and Resilience in Four Countries

Author:
Erik Brattberg, Philippe Le Corre, Paul Stronski, and Thomas de Waal
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
China’s presence has brought socioeconomic opportunities to Georgia, Greece, Hungary, and Romania. Yet it has exacerbated governance shortfalls, undermined elements of political and economic stability, and complicated the European Union’s ability to reach consensus on key issues.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Governance, European Union, Political stability, Resilience, and Economic Stability
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Greece, Romania, Hungary, Georgia, and United States of America

59. Modern Monetary Theory Meets Greece and Chicago

Author:
George S. Tavlas
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Cato Journal
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
During the fall of 2009, George Papandreou headed the ticket of the Panhellenic Socialist Movement, known by its acronym PASOK, against the then‐​governing conservative party, New Democracy, in the Greek national elections. Papandreou ran on a platform that featured highly expansive fiscal spending. During a press conference on September 13, 2009, he was asked where he would find the money to fund his party’s spending proposals. His answer was that given in the above quotation, by which he meant that Greece had abundant fiscal space to increase government spending; he believed that tax revenues could be sharply raised through stricter enforcement of laws against tax evasion. On October 4, PASOK won a landslide electoral victory, garnering 43.9 percent of the popular vote, compared with 33.5 percent for the second‐​place, incumbent New Democracy party, with the result that Papandreou became Greece’s prime minister. In the following months, a sovereign‐​debt crisis erupted in Greece that, within a year, engulfed much of the euro area through contagion. In November 2011, Papandreou resigned the premiership, becoming the first Greek prime minister in almost 50 years to be forced out of office by his own cabinet. An article in the Financial Times, reporting on his ouster, stated: “George Papandreou will be remembered by Greeks with more than a trace of bitterness as the man who smilingly declared ‘the money’s there’ ” (Hope 2011). In the next Greek elections, held in June 2012, PASOK won only 12.3 percent of the vote.
Topic:
Monetary Policy, Conservatism, Political Parties, and Socialism
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

60. Turkey-Greece: From Maritime Brinkmanship to Dialogue

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In mid-2020, Turkey and Greece put their Mediterranean fleets on high alert, dramatically raising tensions in their long-running dispute over air, water, rock and now seabed gas deposits as well. Talks have been frustrating but remain the best way to contain the risk of conflict.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Greece

61. Detention as the Default: How Greece, with the support of the EU, is generalizing administrative detention of migrants

Author:
Vasilis Papastergiou
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Putting migrants and asylum seekers into detention for administrative reasons is a common practice in Greece, despite this policy contravening human rights. Greek authorities are using detention and the new EU-funded closed compounds as a way to discourage people from seeking asylum in Europe. Detention, as outlined in Greek law, should only be used as a final resort and only then in specific instances. Detention carries with it not only a financial cost, but also a considerable moral cost. Detention without just cause violates basic human rights, such as freedom of movement, the right to health and the right to family life. Alternatives to detention exist and must be prioritized.
Topic:
Human Rights, Humanitarian Crisis, Detention, and Migrants
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

62. Turkish-Greek Rapprochement in the 1930s: The British Factor as a Third Party

Author:
Emine Tutku Vardağlı
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Academic Inquiries
Institution:
Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:
The third party effect in international relations gained popularity in 1990s in the context of conflict resolution. However, the Turkish-Greek relations in the modern era have always been discussed in reference to a third party involvement and Britain has always prevailed over the other countries as the most prominent third party. This study searches for the British influence on the Turkish-Greek rapprochement in 1930s. The British factor influence is usually taken as a matter of Great Power dominance or the “provocateur of rivalries between the two nations” from the Turkish point of view or “cooperation of allies” from the Greek point of view. Whereas, this study focuses on a specific conjuncture in which Britain acted neither as a “provocateur” nor as an “ally” for any party. In reference to the historical sources, it is documented that from the late 1920s the British approach to the Turkish-Greek affairs was altered dramatically, parallel to the overarching systemic changes in the interwar period Specifically, it is argued that the revision of British financial policy in response to the Great Depression and its retreat from the Eastern Mediterranean as a naval power directed Greece to change its foreign policy orientations with a sudden demarche and offer Turkey a peace settlement. Rather than attributing this rapprochement to the efforts of charismatic leaders, this study analyses the issue with a realist mind in reference to the British policies modified in parallel to the systemic changes during the interwar years.
Topic:
International Relations, History, and Rapprochement
Political Geography:
Britain, Turkey, Greece, and Mediterranean

63. Albania-Greece Sea Issue Through the History Facts and the Future of Conflict Resolution

Author:
Senada Reci and Luljeta Zefi
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
The issue of the sea between Albania and Greece has been and continues to be an object of study for various authors. Research shows so far that many studies have tried to go slightly from the descriptive to the explanatory and analytical framework and have generally fallen into the ‘trap’ of subjective approaches creating the phenomenon of nationalism. That appears in different forms, damaging the spirit of friendship and cooperation between both countries. This paper analyzes relations between Albania and Greece and their evolution based on international acts until the decision of the Albanian Constitutional Court annulling the agreement between them on the issue of the sea as incompatible with the constitution in terms of absolute objectivity. The demands of the Greek state for extension with 12 miles under the magnifying glass of the interpretation of the norms of the international law of the sea, the principle of equality and equity are part of the insistence on gaining superiority in the sea area vis-à-vis Albania. All this leading to the dialogue for another treaty cooperation and friendship occupy a vital part of the facts, which constitute an ongoing open discussion about the future of the sea issue on the Hague International Court.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Water, Conflict, Borders, and Oceans and Seas
Political Geography:
Europe, Greece, and Albania

64. The Challenges of Redressing Violations of Economic and Social Rights in the Aftermath of the Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis

Author:
Giulia Ciliberto
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Goettingen Journal of International Law
Institution:
The Goettingen Journal of International Law
Abstract:
The Eurozone sovereign debt crisis represented an occasion to assess whether the international, European Union, and national systems provide adequate remedies for violation of socio-economic rights caused by austerity measures. Victims of these violations tried to obtain a remedy by lodging complaints before national judicial organs, the Court of Justice of the European Union, international human rights bodies (such the UN Committee on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights, the ILO Committee on Freedom of Association and the European Committee on Social Rights), and the European Court of Human Rights. This article addresses whether one (or more) of these venues indicted adequate remedies of violations of socio-economic rights and whether these mechanisms could have adopted a different (and more human rights- oriented) adjudicative approach with the view of enhancing the effectiveness of socio-economic rights enshrined in international treaties. The paper assumes that the adequacy of the relief depends on two elements. The first is the collective nature of socio-economic rights, which requires structural or systemic remedies rather than individual ones. The second is the need to preserve States’ economic soundness in order to allow Countries to satisfy their international obligations, namely securing a minimum essential level of socio- economic rights and their progressive realization. Against these assumptions, remedies should benefit the victimized class as a whole, alongside avoiding major distributional or unintended consequences to the detriment of public finances. The investigation focuses on the case law and pronouncements concerning Greece, Portugal, and Spain. The paper reaches the conclusion that constitutional review of austerity measures is the most adequate and effective venue to address such sensitive matters. This is especially true where constitutional courts rely on international conventions protecting socio-economic rights as per se parameters of constitutionality or through consistent interpretation – viz. by construing the national bill of rights in line with treaty-based socio-economic rights.
Topic:
Debt, European Union, Economic Cooperation, Socioeconomics, and Economic Rights
Political Geography:
Greece, Spain, and Portugal

65. Between Geopolitics and Geoeconomics: The Growing Role of Gulf States in the Eastern Mediterranean

Author:
Adel Abdel Ghafar
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The role played by countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in the Eastern Mediterranean is becoming increasingly important. This calls for an assessment of their evolving relationship with countries in the region, as well as their involvement in the Libyan conflict. Increased involvement by Gulf actors may inflame existing regional rivalries and geopolitical tensions. The interests of GCC countries in the Eastern Mediterranean are first analysed in the broader context of regional rivalries. Special attention is then devoted to Egypt, Libya, Lebanon, Greece and Cyprus, while considering the role of other key regional actors such as Turkey and Israel. Recommendations on why and how the new US administration should intervene to decrease regional tensions are provided. Paper prepared in the framework of the IAI-Eni Strategic Partnership, January 2021.
Topic:
Economics, Geopolitics, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Greece, Libya, Lebanon, Egypt, Cyprus, Mediterranean, and Gulf Nations

66. Greece and Turkey: A Prime Example of a Complicated Relationship

Author:
Sofia Maria Satanakis
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:
The relations between Greece and Turkey are known to be historically tense and problematic. Despite being NATO allies, their relationship has been marked by various crises over the past decades and often caught the attention of the international community. Greece, on the intermittent military coups (1960, 1971, 1980), while as early as 1964, it became an associate member of the European Community; the goal being to ultimately join the ‘club’ – as Greece did back in 1981.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Conflict, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Greece

67. Assessing the cost of friction between NATO allies

Author:
Odysseus Katsaitis and George Andrew Zombanakis
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
This paper proposes a method for assessing the cost of friction between North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) allies and highlights internal threats. This is applied to the Greek–Turkish conflict within the NATO context and concerns the functioning of defence expenditure in Greece, modified in such a way as to focus on the causes of friction between these allies. The analysis concentrates mainly on the issue of internal threats to the long-run equilibrium of NATO. The ARDL methodology used modifies the typical error correction model by introducing a mechanism that accelerates the process that leads back to the long-run equilibrium. Along with assessing the cost to an ally in relation to an internal threat, the method proposed allows the time required for the long-run equilibrium of NATO to be restored. The paper concludes that dynamic incidents of friction between allies expressed as an internal threat disturb NATO’s static equilibrium, destabilise an individual ally’s defence policy and contribute to cost being incurred.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, and Defense Spending
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Greece

68. Greece-Israel Relations Help Stabilize the Eastern Mediterranean

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Amidst global turmoil, with Ankara seeking to lure away key regional players, the Greece-Israel partnership is a pillar of effective regional strategy.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Political stability, Strategic Stability, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Israel, Greece, and Mediterranean

69. Biden’s Eastern Mediterranean Agenda

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Establishing coherent US policy regarding brewing conflict in the eastern Mediterranean should be a Biden administration priority. By restraining Erdogan’s ambitions, the US can add to stability and rebuild bridges with key European players and traditional US allies. The governments of Israel and Greece, in consultation with Egypt, should work together to advance this perspective in Washington.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Leadership, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Greece, North America, United States of America, and Mediterranean

70. Greece, Cyprus, and the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process

Author:
Gabriel Mitchell
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
For decades, the US operated as the central mediator between Israel and the Palestinians. However, after decades of stalled negotiations, it is likely that future peacemaking efforts will be multilateral, reliant on an orchestra of international actors who can support specific processes that, in concert, could encourage Israelis and Palestinians to reapproach one another. This piece examines the role of Greece and Cyprus, two regional actors whose strategic relationship with Israel has strengthened over the last decade, could help advance peace. Though secondary players in the context of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, there are concrete ways that both states – if invited by the central parties – could contribute to a more conducive environment for cooperation and dialogue.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, International Affairs, Negotiation, and Peace
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Greece, Palestine, and Cyprus

71. The Rise and Fall of Golden Dawn: Organized Racism Suffered a Great Defeat in Greece—But the Fight is Far from Over

Author:
Eleni Takou
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
Golden Dawn was already a violent, marginal, neo-Nazi group in the 1980s. But how did it become a regulator of Greece’s political life? The economic crisis that plagued Greek society in 2010, the lack of a consistent migration policy, as well as the state’s (and other institutional actors’) reluctance to acknowledge its extreme far-right past and address xenophobia and racist crime, led to the group’s consolidation. In 2010, Golden Dawn gained a seat on the Athens municipal council. In the 2012 general election, it took almost 7 percent of the vote, electing 21 MPs.1 Many mark this as the starting point of Golden Dawn’s presence in Greece; however, this approach alone leads to a narrow and historically inac- curate interpretation of extremist far-right violence in Greece.
Topic:
Elections, Far Right, Racism, and Golden Dawn
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

72. Spring 2020: The International Student Journey

Author:
Allan E. Goodman, Robert A. Scott, Gretchen Dobson, Meredith Doubleday, Darla K. Deardorff, Lindsay Addington, Peter Baker, Elisabeth Bloxam, Niki Kerameus, Jennifer Evanuik, and Reitumetse Obakeng Mabokela
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute of International Education (IIE)
Abstract:
International students are a core part of any institution’s internationalization strategy. Beyond boosting enrollment numbers, institutions are increasingly focused on understanding what makes for a successful international student experience. In the Spring 2020 issue of the IIENetworker magazine, The International Student Journey, professionals from around the world share their strategies and perspectives on international student success from outreach and recruitment to the on-campus experience through to alumni initiatives. How do institutions recruit as the global landscape for international students has expanded? What can be done to ensure that your international students are as integrated on your campus as domestic students? And once they leave campus, does your relationship with these students end?
Topic:
Demographics, Education, Youth, Institutions, and Higher Education
Political Geography:
Greece, North America, and United States of America

73. How ‘demos’ met ‘cracy’: debt, inequality, money

Author:
Andreas Antoniades and Ugo Panizza
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Global Political Economy, University of Sussex
Abstract:
The recurrence of ever more destructive economic crises and patterns of pervasive indebtedness and inequality threaten the social fabric of our societies. Our main responses to these trends have been partial, focusing on symptoms rather than causes, often exacerbating rather than improving the underlying socio-economic dynamics. To reflect on these conditions and on ‘what needs to be done’ this paper turns to a similar socio-economic malaise faced by the city-state of Athens in the 6th century BC. Most historical studies dealing with this crisis focus on the comprehensive debt relief policy (seisachteia) implemented by Solon. We argue that this debt relief, although necessary, was the least important of Solon’s reforms. Solon read the problem of debt as a problem of money so he went on to reform the monetary and exchange system. But he did not think that these reforms alone could restore socioeconomic sustainability. For this, a redefinition of what was counted as valuable economic activity and as income had also to take place. And for all these to work, citizens had to be involved more in the commons. Far from only achieving socioeconomic sustainability, these reforms gave rise gradually to the demos that we meet in the golden age of Democracy. It is indeed interesting that Democracy, in its ideal type of the 5th century BC, finds its origin in the way in which a society responded to a major socioeconomic crisis, characterised by pervasive indebtedness and destabilising inequalities. Such a broader historical horizon may help us grasp better the problems, stakes and challenges of our times.
Topic:
Debt, Political Economy, History, Democracy, and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
Greece and Global Focus

74. Turkey and Greece: pouring gas on the eastern Mediterranean dispute

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
The Turkish-Greek conflict over maritime borders is unlike any other in the world. Not only does it involve potentially vast wealth under the seabed in the Aegean and the eastern Mediterranean, it relies on diverse and competing legal sources and interpretations.
Topic:
Oil, Bilateral Relations, Natural Resources, Maritime, and Borders
Political Geography:
Turkey, Greece, and Mediterranean

75. Structural Shifts and Regional Security: A View from Israel

Author:
Ehud Eiran
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Israel is still holding to its traditional security maxim. Based on a perception of a hostile region, Israel’s response includes early warning, deterrence and swift – including pre-emptive – military action, coupled with an alliance with a global power, the US. Israel is adjusting these maxims to a changing reality. Overlapping interests – and perhaps the prospect of an even more open conflict with Iran – led to limited relationships between Israel and some Gulf states. These, however, will be constrained until Israel makes progress on the Palestine issue. Israel aligned with Greece and Cyprus around energy and security, which may lead to conflict with Turkey. Russia’s deployment in Syria placed new constraints on Israeli freedom of action there. The US’s retrenchment from the Middle East is not having a direct effect on Israel, while the Trump administration’s support for Israel’s territorial designs in the West Bank may make it easier for Israel to permanently expand there, thus sowing the seeds for future instability in Israel/Palestine. The EU could try and balance against such developments, but, as seen from Israel, is too divided to have a significant impact. Paper produced in the framework of the FEPS-IAI project “Fostering a New Security Architecture in the Middle East”, April 2020.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Gas, and Hezbollah
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Greece, Palestine, Saudi Arabia, Cyprus, United States of America, and Mediterranean

76. The Interests of Eastern Mediterranean States and Israeli Policies

Author:
Mitvim
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
This paper scans the interests and activities of Greece, Cyprus, Turkey and Egypt in the Mediterranean Basin – their varying and competing interests, their points of convergence and cooperation, and the challenges and opportunities for Israel. The paper is based on the main points raised at the third meeting of the working group on Israel in the Mediterranean, held in September 2019 in the Herzliya offices of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung at the initiative of the Mitvim Institute, the Hebrew University’s Leonard Davis Institute for International Relations and Haifa University’s National Security Studies Center. The paper shines a spotlight on key elements in regional relationships and significant activity taking place in the Mediterranean Basin, which Israel must consider in formulating and executing policy. It is based on the presentations and discussions conducted at the event and does not reflect agreement among all participants.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Economy
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Greece, Palestine, Egypt, Cyprus, and Mediterranean

77. Athens and Jerusalem Have a Diplomatic Opportunity

Author:
George N Tzogopoulos
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:
Greece, Israel, and five other countries of the Eastern Mediterranean have established the East Med Gas Forum. Turkey is not a member and is employing its own muscular approach in the region. The US would like the Forum to be more inclusive, specifically toward Ankara. Athens and Jerusalem could launch a diplomatic initiative to explore Turkey’s participation, as they have nothing to lose and much to gain from such an initiative.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Gas, and Trade
Political Geography:
Turkey, Israel, Greece, Palestine, and Mediterranean

78. All Hands on Deck: the Crisis in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Need for US Leadership

Author:
Alexandros Zachariades
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
Crisis has returned to the Eastern Mediterranean where Greek and Turkish economic interests, legal claims, and armed forces are squaring off. In this Strategic Update, Alexandros Zachariades explores how the two NATO powers arrived at the current confrontation, how the contest intersects with issues ranging from China to Libya, and how the international community can resolve the tension.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, NATO, Economics, and Leadership
Political Geography:
China, Turkey, Greece, Libya, United States of America, and Mediterranean

79. Education and wage inequalities in Greece: access to higher education and its effects on income

Author:
Pery Bazoti
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The educational system in Greece has always been at the center of public discourse, not only for the shortcomings of its design, but also for the quality of the education offered. In this context, during the last decades, the rise in wage inequalities had led the literature to investigate the existence of a possible causal relationship between the level of education and income inequality. The present paper by Pery Bazoti examines the relationship between tertiary education and economic inequality. Taking into consideration the fact that potential inequalities in access to education can hinder the redistributive role of education, the starting point of the study is the access to tertiary education. The design and flaws of the Greek education system prevent university candidates from equal opportunities since the entrance to tertiary education institutions relies heavily on the economic background of their families. The economic crisis highlighted these inequalities mainly through the decline of the disposable household income and exacerbated the already crippled abilities of the education system due to the extensive cuts that took place during this time. Nevertheless, the data reveals that private expenditure -typically related to students’ preparation for exams for entrance into university, despite its decrease, continues to have the larger share of the households’ education budget.
Topic:
Education, Reform, Inequality, and Public Policy
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

80. Bank recapitalizations in Greece: From state-led bailouts to the ownership transfer of banks to foreign hands

Author:
Athanasios Kolliopoulos
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
A decade after the conclusion of the first economic adjustment programme in 2010 and despite three consecutive recapitalizations, Greek banks still suffer from the highest Non-Performing Loans ratio in the Eurozone, with credit expansion in the “real economy” remaining anemic. Furthermore, the overall impact on public debt from government financial support to Greek banks over the last decade was one of the largest among the Eurozone countries. What went wrong? What were the reasons that the domestic financial system ended up in this exceptionally sad state? Why did the recapitalization policy not have the desired outcome? Exploring these questions throughout the literature of responses to banking crises, this paper shows that recapitalization policy in Greece failed to exploit the advantages of the principal forms of bank rescues. In fact, the significant inertia prevailing among authorities and bankers throughout the recapitalizations brought about the ownership transfer of the Greek banking system to foreign hands (“dehellenization”) after the third recapitalization in late 2015. You may acces the full paper by Dr. Athanasios Kolliopoulos, Postdoctoral Researcher at the Athens University of Economics and Business, here.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Banks, Recapitalizations, Bailout, and Banking Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

81. The Greek-Turkish Maritime Disputes: An International Law Perspective

Author:
Efthymios Papastavrdis
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
This Policy Paper by Efthymios Papastavridis, Research Associate of ELIAMEP; Researcher and Part-time Lecturer, University of Oxford Fellow; Academy of Athens & Athens PIL Center, examines the maritime disputes between Greece and Turkey, in particular those concerning maritime delimitation and the breadth of the territorial sea of Greece, against the background of international law. It starts with setting out the historical and legal background of the continental shelf dispute in the Aegean Sea, in particular Greece’s applications before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and the UN Security Council in 1976. Then, the paper considers the different legal positions of Greece and Turkey concerning the issues of the breadth of the territorial sea and the maritime delimitation and assesses these positions under international law. This assessment is followed by the discussion of the various means available under international law for the settlement of the maritime delimitation dispute under international law, in particular, its submission to the ICJ, which has often been at the front line of public and scholarly discourse. The paper concludes that international law provides a sufficient, clear and predictable legal framework for the resolution of the Greek-Turkish maritime dispute, which will be of the outmost benefit for both States and for the Eastern Mediterranean region as a whole.
Topic:
International Law, United Nations, and Maritime
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Greece, Mediterranean, and Aegean Sea

82. It’s Time for a New Deal

Author:
Constantine Michalopoulos
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The prospects of the Greek economy are mostly good with growth continuing for the fourth straight year. But there is a sense of disappointment, as the recovery has not been very strong and pre-crisis income levels will not be regained for another decade. There are two main reasons for the sluggish recovery: The European creditors have imposed on Greece the requirement to run a primary budget surplus of 3.5% of GDP for five years to ensure that they get repaid—a requirement that constricts growth of the Greek private sector—through heavy taxation of consumers and business. And domestic investment is sluggish, although there are plenty of unutilized resources, such as those provided by the European Structural Funds. There is a need for a new deal with the European Institutions: the Europeans should be more relaxed about getting repaid because of Greece’s much improved access to the European capital markets and be willing to accept a Greek government commitment to a significantly lower primary budget surplus for the next several years. In exchange the Greek government should commit to a commensurate increase in domestic investment through reforms of the banking sector as well as greater public sector investment spending.
Topic:
Government, Financial Crisis, Economy, Economic Growth, and Public Spending
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

83. Greek-American relations: what next?

Author:
George Tzogopoulos
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
With President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis scheduled to meet early this January, Dr. George Tzogopoulos, Research Fellow at ELIAMEP, outlines the course of Greek-American relations from 2015 onwards. Dr. Tzogopoulos argues that Athens and Washington DC have entered a period of strong cooperation that can be further consolidated in 2020. Defense, energy and trade are the main focal points. The agenda includes the need to create a new security environment in the Mediterranean – with Greece playing a key role. The excellent status of Greek-American relations creates new opportunities for closer bilateral cooperation on defense, energy and trade. The region of Northern Greece becomes of gradually higher significance for the US. US foreign policy towards Greece reflects its interest in restraining Russian influence. While anti-Americanism in Greece is declining, there is widespread concern in the domestic public sphere on whether the US will support Greece in the case of a crisis with Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean. US support to the trilateral cooperation of Greece-Israel-Cyprus will be reinforced through the Eastern Mediterranean Security and Energy Partnership Act. The US-Greece Strategic Dialogue and NATO Mediterranean Dialogue are useful instruments for strengthening Greece’s role in the South, contributing towards a new security landscape.
Topic:
Security, Energy Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe, Greece, North America, and United States of America

84. Refugees at the gate of Europe

Author:
Angeliki Dimitriadi
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The recent crisis in Evros brought back to the fore the issue of immigration and Turkey’s role in its instrumentalization. The EU-Turkey Statement has not had the expected outcomes. Rather it showed that prevention policies and the outsourcing of migration management strengthens transit countries such as Turkey, without resulting in a a steady reduction in flows. Greece remains a country that bears a disproportionate burden of responsibility due to its geographical location. At the same time, it has delayed in the planning of a holistic immigration policy, which should aim, among other things, to ensure human living conditions, substantial access to asylum and result in the integration of those who will remain in the country. COVID 19 will bring about significant socioeconomic changes globally as well as impact human rights. Practices of the past do not necessarily fit for the new reality and this is the biggest challenge for Greece and the EU; a willingness to move forward by investing on migration within Europe and beyond. It will not be easy, and it will come at a high financial (and likely political) cost. The pandemic makes any long-term commitments seem impossible, however the alternative scenario, of deterrence and outsourcing is already proving insufficient. Balancing the scales is a challenge which the EU cannot afford to lose.
Topic:
Human Rights, Migration, European Union, Refugees, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Greece, and Mediterranean

85. Greece and Israeli-Turkish relations

Author:
George Tzogopoulos
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
This essay by Dr. George Tzogopoulos, focuses on the multidimensional nature of Greek-Israeli relations. The understanding of the depth of these relations can explain why the two countries – along with Cyprus – are interested in coming closer. On the other hand, the effort of Israel and Turkey to normalize bilateral ties – already under way since 2016 – is a logical development that deserves attention. However, it is not related to the future evolution of Greek-Israeli collaboration. The evolution of Greek-Israeli relations in the last decade and trilateral Greece-Israel-Cyprus summits outline the common interest of the three countries to enrich their cooperation. Israel and Turkey have started since 2016 to normalize their relations. This is an ongoing process that has evolved in a period during which Greece, Israel and Cyprus charted a joint course in the Eastern Mediterranean. Israel and Turkey are expected to find a modus vivendi by agreeing on some issues and disagreeing on others. A potential Turkish-Israeli collaboration against Iran in Syria might pave the way for new synergies between Israel and Turkey. This is a highly controversial and complicated matter that entails risks for Ankara.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Europe, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Greece, and Syria

86. Looking for a bridge over troubled waters: the forthcoming New Pact on Migration and Asylum

Author:
Angeliki Dimitriadi
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
On the occasion of the World Refugee Day, 20th of June, ELIAMEP publishes a Policy Brief on the forthcoming New Pact on Migration and Asylum, by Dr. Angeliki Dimitriadi, Senior Research Fellow and Head of ELIAMEP’s Migration Programme. COVID-19 has affected access to asylum. Border closures have prevented in many cases asylum seekers from reaching safety, or made them face prolonged delays in their asylum application. The New Pact on Migration and Asylum is expected to be announced by the end of June. It is one of the biggest challenges facing the current European Commission, which is called upon to submit proposals that will be accepted by the Member States with different perspectives but also asylum and immigration needs. The biggest challenge, however, is to ensure that the right and access to asylum is fully preserved and will be a priority for the Union for years to come. In the midst of ongoing conflicts, extreme poverty and increasingly restrictive practices at the external border, it is perhaps the last chance to ground a common migration and asylum policy on the the principles of humanity and solidarity, between Member States and towards asylum seekers. The New Pact for Asylum and Migration will seek to bridge the differences between Member States on the solidarity, burden-sharing and common asylum processes. Southern member states have tabled a detailed proposal on the way forward grounded on mandatory solidarity. Forced movement will continue and likely be exacerbated due to the impact of COVID-19 in critical regions like Africa and Southeast Asia.
Topic:
Migration, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Refugees, Borders, Asylum, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

87. Greek-Russian Relations: A Potential to Mend Strained Ties

Author:
George Tzogopoulos
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The relationship between Greece and Russia requires a careful management following the diplomatic crisis of the 2018 summer. The visit of Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to Athens offers an opportunity for a sincere dialogue between the two countries. Greece and Russia can either agree on their disagreements or search for a new way forward based on realism and common interests. A sincere dialogue should leave illusions aside and concentrate on joint interests.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Greece

88. Taking the EU out of the EastMed pipeline quagmire

Author:
Sofia López Piqueres
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
The recent escalating tensions between Greece and the Republic of Cyprus on the one hand and Turkey on the other have shown how contentious the issue of energy is in the Eastern Mediterranean. The planned EastMed pipeline is a case in point. But, paradoxically, adopting a ‘selective engagement’ approach and focusing on the energy and climate dimensions of the countries’ relations could be a starting point to rebuild trust. A discussion on the future of the EastMed project, in particular, could present an opportunity to get all parties at the table and diffuse the situation. To play a constructive role in this, the EU must act in the spirit of the Green Deal and stop investing in the EastMed pipeline, and find ways to encourage Greece, Cyprus and Turkey to make the shift to renewables now and ditch offshore gas exploration altogether.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Oil, Gas, Renewable Energy, and Pipeline
Political Geography:
Turkey, Greece, Cyprus, and Mediterranean

89. Greece’s Resource Blessing Comes with Hurdles

Author:
Antonia Dimou
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:
School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:
Can international arbitration and mediation with its neighbors help Greece turn its energy challenges into opportunities in the Eastern Mediterranean?
Topic:
Diplomacy, Energy Policy, International Cooperation, Mediation, and Arbitration
Political Geography:
Europe, Greece, and Mediterranean

90. Migration Trends in Eastern Europe during COVID-19

Author:
Iulia Joja, Gonul Tol, Adam Eberhardt, and Holger Fabian Sahl
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
COVID-19 has highlighted the vulnerabilities of refugees and migrants around the world, many of whom have been caught in transit as governments shut down borders. The virus is also placing increasing strain on migration pressure points, while enabling new migration trends to emerge. This has been particularly evident in Eastern Europe. Thousands of refugees gathered at the Turkey-Greece border at the beginning of the crisis, hoping to cross European Union borders. Meanwhile, many Ukrainian migrants living and working in Poland are leaving the EU to reach their homes and families. The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host a virtual panel in collaboration with the Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW) in Poland. The event will focus on the challenges facing refugees and migrants in Eastern Europe during COVID-19, as well as the response of governments and the European Union. What are the economic, political and security implications for the region? Are policymakers considering refugees in their COVID-19 preparations? Is the pandemic fueling anti-refugee sentiment in countries like Poland and Turkey? What is the role of the European Union in coordinating a regional response, and is it delivering?
Topic:
Government, Migration, European Union, Refugees, Displacement, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Eastern Europe, Greece, and Poland

91. Turkey-Greece Relations: Growing Tensions and Implications for Transatlantic Relations

Author:
Oya Dorsun-Özkanca
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
Turkey-Greece bilateral relations exemplify a stereotypical security dilemma. Since the discovery of hydrocarbon resources in the eastern Mediterranean, the bilateral tensions between Turkey and Greece have been exacerbated through enhanced regional geostrategic competition. Against the background of renewed tensions in the eastern Mediterranean and the newly emerging regional alliances, it is in the interest of all parties to de-escalate the tensions in order to preserve regional peace and stability as well as the coherence of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
Topic:
Security, Governance, Conflict, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Greece, and Mediterranean

92. Turkey-Greece Confrontation and Georgia: Threats and Challenges

Author:
Zurab Batiashvili
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
Relations between Turkey and Greece have never been easy but since the summer of 2020, tensions between them rose sharply. If during June and July of 2020 the parties were arguing over the conversion of the Hagia Sophia Museum into a mosque, in August-September the center of controversy shifted to the Eastern Mediterranean and the Aegean Sea. Many unresolved issues have accumulated over the decades in this "space" - the problem of Cyprus, the problem of the separation of maritime economic zones (hence, the natural resources located there), the issue of 12 islands and airspace, the matter of ownership of uninhabited small islands and more. In addition, recently, one can observe increasingly aggressive rhetoric in both countries which creates the danger of small incidents escalating into a major military confrontation that, in turn, createsseriousthreats and challenges to regionalsecurity (including Georgia).
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Security, Economics, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:
Turkey, Caucasus, Greece, and Georgia

93. The Hellenic air – space violations by Turkish aircraft: A statistical assessment and a forecast

Author:
Vasileios Symeonidis and George Andrew Zombanakis
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
This paper aims to assess the extent to which repeated attacks against sovereign Hellenic air space by Turkey along with the inevitably ensuing engagements between aircraft of the two sides follow a certain predetermined pattern of behaviour that can be detected based on a given statistical model, and if so, to what extent this pattern is predictable in terms of its intensity and the frequency of incidents. To this end, we use the Weibull statistical distribution as an appropriate tool for interpreting and quantifying the pattern of aggressive Turkish behaviour and calculating probabilities of occurrences. Based on this choice, we then proceed with a forecast of this behaviour in the near future. We provide specific mathematical formulae that can be readily used to calculate probabilities and forecast air space violations and engagements. Our models, based on historical data, assume that both Hellenic air space violations and engagement incidents will keep increasing but will inevitably reach a monthly maximum, constrained by the availability of property and human resources on the Turkish side. The conclusions drawn point to the fact that Turkey will at some point in the near future reach its capacity limits in terms of property and human resources used in such offensive exercises, and that there is very little that can be done to enhance the margins of such activities given the room provided by the Turkish economy, which seem to be prohibitive
Topic:
Security, Military Affairs, Airspace, and Military Exercises
Political Geography:
Turkey, Greece, and Mediterranean

94. Unequivocal Diplomatic Support for the EEZ Agreement between Greece and Egypt

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Israel should act to ensure that the Greek-Egyptian EEZ delimitation map is globally endorsed, as opposed to the Turkish-GNA alternative, and work in the American arena to curb Erdogan’s ambitions.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Peace, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Turkey, Greece, Egypt, and Mediterranean

95. Israel, Greece, and the Turkish Challenge: Acute Testing Lies Ahead

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Israel is unable to get directly involved in eastern Mediterranean hostilities, should they erupt. But it can and should cooperate closely with Greece in intelligence matters and arms acquisition and coordinate political action with Greece in Washington. The US stance largely will determine the practical scope of Erdogan’s ambitions.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, Hegemony, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Greece

96. The Struggle for the Mediterranean: The EMGF Stake in the Libyan Civil War

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Dramatic gains on the battlefield by the forces loyal to the Turkish-backed “Government of National Accord” in western Libya have given Erdogan a victory, which may endanger the future of the eastern Mediterranean. Italy, Greece, Cyprus, Egypt and Israel must coordinate their policies in response. A tripartite Greek-Cypriot-Israeli summit should be held urgently to annul the GNA-Libyan EEZ agreement, to present an alternative map of the Mediterranean, and to encourage a robust reaction of the EU. The US must be persuaded to pressure Turkey revoke the EEZ MoU (while still letting Erdogan take pride in saving the GNA from ruin).
Topic:
Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Hegemony, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Greece, Italy, Cyprus, and Mediterranean

97. The Struggle for the Eastern Mediterranean: Israel’s Role following the Berlin Summit on Libya

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Everything short of a military confrontation needs to be done, though, to deter Erdogan from establishing a barrier diagonally across the Mediterranean, barring Cyprus, Egypt and Israel from connecting their gas infrastructure to Greece and hence to Europe.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Natural Resources, Infrastructure, Gas, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Greece, and Mediterranean

98. Israel-Greece-Cyprus take on Turkey in the Mediterranean

Author:
Joshua Krasna
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Trilateral cooperation among Israel, Greece and Cyprus to build a natural gas subsea pipeline is setting the stage for more tensions with Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Natural Resources, Gas, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Greece, Cyprus, and Mediterranean

99. The Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum: Cooperation in the Shadow of Competition

Author:
Gabriel Mitchell
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
Established in January 2019, the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF) is the most significant multinational organization in a geopolitical space often associated with conflict and competition. Currently comprised of Egypt, Greece, Cyprus, Israel, Italy, Jordan, Greece, Italy and the Palestinian Authority, the forum’s purpose to advance opportunities for energy development and cooperation between Eastern Mediterranean states in order to maximize the commercial potential of the region’s hydrocarbon reserves. This paper analyzes the diplomatic processes that resulted in the EMGF’s formation, the current challenges the forum faces, and Israel’s capacity to shape this nascent body’s future. If the forum hopes to grow in the postcoronavirus era, then it must commit to seeking pathways towards economic cooperation, enhancing its scope to include renewable energy, while also prioritizing conflict resolution and the establishment of a new maritime order.
Topic:
Development, Diplomacy, Energy Policy, Geopolitics, Gas, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Greece, Palestine, Italy, Egypt, Jordan, Cyprus, and Mediterranean

100. Greece’s Eastern Mediterranean Policy

Author:
Maciej Pawłowski
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Greece aims to strengthen its political and economic position in the Eastern Mediterranean, which was weakened after the economic crisis of 2008–2013. Among the ways to regain this stature are through access to natural resources and participation in regional alliances. The Greeks perceive Turkey as the main threat to achieving these goals. It is in the EU’s interest to foster better relations between the two countries and to find compromise in disputes between them.
Topic:
European Union, Economy, Alliance, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Greece, and Mediterranean