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241. Cyprus: Bridging the Property Divide

Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The property issue is one of the most intractable knots in the settlement of the Cyprus dispute, without which stability in the Eastern Mediterranean remains fragile. Greek and Turkish Cypriots own tens of thousands of buildings and parcels of land on both sides of the divided island. A convincing plan to resolve conflicting claims would give great support to reunification efforts and persuade external partners of Cypriots' will to find a compromise, even as the 2011 electoral calendar sets what is in effect a deadline for the present negotiations. But as Cypriot politicians and Turkey fail to come to terms, the property question is increasingly being atomised by individual actions and the courts – a process that will be more expensive, slow and inefficient for all than a comprehensive property settlement. With a comprehensive deal proving elusive, heavy court and administrative penalties and the actions of Cypriot individuals mean that the property issue can no longer be ignored or avoided. New ideas are urgently needed.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Turkey and Greece

242. Is Greece heading for default?

Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Greece has slid into a serious fiscal crisis over the last few months. A ballooning budget deficit and high levels of government debt have raised questions in the minds of investors about the sustainability of the country's public finances. The level of concern among investors can be seen from developments in Greek borrowing costs relative to those in Germany. At the beginning of 2008, the yield on Greek 10-year bonds was only around 0.3% higher than on equivalent German securities, but this gap has now risen to over 3%. This yield spread is at its widest for more than a decade and is by far the largest within the Eurozone. The root cause of Greece's problems is a long period of fiscal indiscipline. In 2009, after years of heavy spending, the budget deficit rose to almost 13% of GDP and the public debt to GDP ratio is set to reach 125% this year. The deteriorating fiscal position has led to a slew of ratings downgrades, and outside the Eurozone Greece's credit rating would probably be in 'junk' territory. On top of the fiscal problems, Greece also suffers from weak external competitiveness. The real exchange rate has appreciated substantially since Greece joined the Eurozone, contributing to a sharp widening in the current account deficit to around 12% of GDP last year. On some estimates, the real effective exchange rate is now around 20% overvalued. As a result Greece now faces a series of policy choices all of which look unpalatable. Within the Eurozone, the only realistic orthodox option is a combination of massive fiscal retrenchment and 'internal devaluation' – forcing down costs relative to those of Greece's competitors. But fiscal cutbacks and cost deflation on the scale required could plunge the country into a deep and prolonged recession and might prove politically and socially unsustainable. The Greek economy is already showing signs of serious stress, with GDP down 2.6% on the year in 2009Q4. The extreme alternatives are default and/or leaving the Eurozone and enacting devaluation. But the political barriers to such moves are immense, and while default and devaluation could ease budgetary and external imbalance problems, they would also cause massive economic and financial disruption and probably a deeper recession in the near-term. Default and devaluation would also risk huge negative contagion effects on the Eurozone and the wider global economy. With Greece's debt approaching €300 billion a default would be the largest sovereign collapse since WWII, dwarfing those in Russia and Argentina. Eurozone banks could face losses of up to €100 billion on top of the heavy writedowns already suffered, risking a renewed Europe-wide credit squeeze. There could also be collapses in demand for the debt of other weaker Eurozone members such as Spain, Portugal and Ireland. World markets for equities, corporate bonds and emerging market debt would also likely be badly affected. There could also be pressure for the major economies to accelerate their fiscal adjustment efforts, given the impact on investor confidence and the scale of their budget deficits. Our estimation results suggest that a Greek default could be a real threat to the progress of the global recovery, cutting growth in the major economies by around 1% per annum compared to our baseline forecast and world growth by 0.6%. Given the potential massive consequences of a Greek default, the pressure for a bailout has been growing. Although there are questions about the legality of such a move, we believe it is possible if the political will exists. Estimation results using the Oxford Model suggest a bailout would be likely to be less economically damaging than a default, even assuming some negative impact from higher bond yields in the core Eurozone countries. The costs of a bailout could rise rapidly, however, if it extended beyond Greece to other troubled countries. A bailout would create a big risk of moral hazard, perhaps inducing fiscal misbehaviour among other Eurozone members or being used by Greece to sidestep the necessary adjustment. To avoid this, any bailout would have to incorporate strict conditionality, perhaps raising serious questions about fiscal sovereignty within the Eurozone. Over the last two weeks, the other EU countries have taken a relatively hard line with Greece, stopping short of announcing explicit financial support and pushing for strong fiscal adjustment measures. Although a bailout remains the most likely outcome if Greece struggles to refinance its debts, there are some signs that political resistance to such a move is growing. The key risk period could be April-May, when a large volume of Greek debt matures.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe, Greece, and Argentina

243. Adjustment Difficulties in the GIPSY Club

Author:
Daniel Gros
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This paper describes the key economic variables and mechanisms that will determine the adjustment process in those euro area countries now under financial market pressure. (Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy = GIPSY) The key finding is that the adjustment will be particularly difficult for Greece (and Portugal) because these are two relatively closed economies with low savings rates. Both of these countries are facing a solvency problem because they combine high debt levels with low growth and high interest rates. Fiscal and external adjustment is thus required for sustainability, not just to satisfy the Stability Pact. By contrast, Ireland and Spain face more of a liquidity than a solvency problem. Italy seems to have a much better starting position on all accounts. Fiscal adjustment alone will not be sufficient to ensure sustainability. Without significant reductions in labour costs, these economies will face years of stagnation at best. Especially in the case of Greece, it is imperative that the cuts in public sector wages are transmitted to the entire economy in order to restore competitiveness, and thus ensure that export growth can become a vital safety valve. Without an adjustment of wages in the private sector, the adjustment will become so difficult that failure cannot be excluded.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe, Greece, Spain, Italy, Portugal, and Ireland

244. Crisis in the eurozone and how to deal with it

Author:
Paul De Grauwe
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The crisis that started in Greece culminated into a crisis of the Eurozone as a whole. How did we get into this mess? To answer this question it is useful to distinguish the three actors that have played a role in the development of the crisis: Greece, the financial markets (including the rating agencies) and the eurozone authorities. Let us analyse the role of these three actors in the drama.
Topic:
Economics and Markets
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

245. Towards a Euro(pean) Monetary Fund

Author:
Daniel Gros and Thomas Mayer
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Despite cobbling together an impressive $1 trillion rescue package for countries with potential funding problems, the threat of a disorderly default still looms over the eurozone, creating systemic financial instability at the EU and possibly global level. Against this background, Daniel Gros and Thomas Mayer renew their call for the creation of a European Monetary Fund (EMF) in an update to their Policy Brief issued in February.
Topic:
Economics, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

246. A Forgotten Promise: Ending the Isolation of Turkish Cypriots

Author:
Mensur Akgün and Sylvia Tiryaki
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
Despite repeated calls and promises, Turkish Cypriots live in economic, political and humanitarian isolation. This paper tries to address one aspect of it and elaborates on the legal basis of these isolationist practices imposed on one side of the island. It challenges the international legal validity of the de facto sanctions. Furthermore, it claims that lifting economic isolation will also serve as a confidence building tool between Greek and Turkish Cypriots as well as between Turkey and the Republic of Cyprus represented by the Greek Cypriots since such an act will lead to Turkey's reciprocation and the normalization of relations with the Republic of Cyprus. It also argues that neither the UN, nor the EU has ever imposed any sanctions on Turkish Cypriots and the policy of isolation, as such, has only been practiced by the Greek Cypriots and the Greeks. This paper intends to clarify the distinction between sanctions and non-recognition. It also highlights the promises made by the EU to the Turkish Cypriots, in particular, the one made on April 26, 2004, when the Council of the EU proclaimed its commitment to end the isolation of the Turkish Cypriot community.
Topic:
Economics and United Nations
Political Geography:
Turkey, Greece, and Balochistan

247. The Ashgate Research Companion to the Politics of Democratization in Europe

Author:
Yaşar Yakış
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
This edited volume brings together 23 articles by various authors who examine different aspects of European democratisation under four headings: Concepts, Practices, Changes and Contexts. In the first section, “Concepts,” contributors tackle different definition of democracy, drawing on discussions in classical literature and examining contemporary challenges to democratization in the global age. In the opening article, “Representative Democracy: Rosanvallon on the French Experience,” Frank R. Ankersmit claims that representative democracy has advantages over direct democracy, as the laws governing the former provide foundational bases for a political order. In the following article, “Direct Democracy, Ancient and Modern,” Mogens H. Hansen looks at direct democracy more closely. The author points out that direct democracy existed only in Ancient Greece and that several centuries after the Hellenic era, scholars introduced the concept of representative democracy and institutions but no serious debate took place regarding the democratic character of these institutions. Hansen discusses the prospects of revitalizing the institution of direct democracy through the use of modern tools. In her article, entitled “Neither Ancient nor Modern: Rousseau's Theory of Democracy,” Gabriella Silvestrini discusses Rousseau's perception of democracy and concludes that it had very little relevance to majority rule. In “Representative Government or Republic? Sieyes on Good Government,” Christine Faure focuses on controversial thinker Abbe Sieyesm, and argues that, in his time, he suggested an elected king who would resemble the modern institution of the President of the Republic.
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
Europe, Greece, and Tripoli

248. What now for the 'peripheral' Eurozone countries?

Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Over the weekend the EU put together a large-scale package worth up to €720 billion aimed at stabilising all the 'peripheral' Eurozone countries, in the face of mounting contagion risks. This came on top of an earlier financial support package for Greece worth €110 billion. The latest move has brought some relief to bond markets, but major challenges remain. Investors remain concerned about the capacity of Greece to stick to the immense fiscal adjustment needed in the face of a very deep recess ion and mounting social unrest. With the debt/GDP ratio set to keep rising to almost 150% in the next few years, concerns remain that some kind of debt restructuring or default cannot be avoided. For the other peripherals, too, the outlook remains bleak – while the immediate threat of a collapse in their debt markets has been averted, years of fiscal austerity and slow growth remain ahead.
Topic:
Debt, International Political Economy, Global Recession, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Greece

249. Historical Poetics in Modern Greece: Reflections on Three Writers

Author:
Eleni Mahaira-Odoni
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
In his Poetics Aristotle underscores the interaction between poetry and history by assigning to poetry the task of dealing with the universal while history delves in the particular. The writers Thanassis Valtinos, Rea Galanaki and the poet C.P. Cavafy have created an imposing body of Modern Greek literary works built on the intimate relationship between history and literature. For each writer the choice of particular historical instances serves a very different purpose. Valtinos grapples with the condition of the common man/woman whereas Galanaki focuses mostly on the existential parameters of exceptional women’s lives. For C.P. Cavafy, poetry, the ultimate universal, validates his own self-exploration by means of particular historical narratives.
Topic:
History and Culture
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

250. A Tale of Reciprocity: Minority Foundations in Greece and Turkey (English/Greek)

Author:
Dilek Kurban and Konstantinos Tsitselikis
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
This report aims to analyze the implications of reciprocity policies on the day-to-day lives of Muslim and non-Muslim minorities in Greece and Turkey, specifically their impact on the community foundations2 belonging to these minorities. With a specific focus on the property and self-management issues of Muslim and non-Muslim community foundations in Greece and Turkey, the report will try to situate the issue in its historical context and trace the evolution of the ‘community foundation issue’ from Lausanne to the present day. Drawing similarities and differences between the laws, policies, and practices of Greek and Turkish states vis-à-vis their minority foundations, the report will critically assess the progress made to this day as well as identify the outstanding issues. In the hope of contributing to efforts to develop a democratic, sustainable, and just resolution of the problems facing community foundations, the report will propose policy solutions to the governments of Turkey and Greece.
Topic:
Human Rights, International Law, Treaties and Agreements, Law, and Minorities
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Greece

251. Are financial markets embedded in economics rather than society? A critical review of the performativity thesis

Author:
Lasse Folke Henriksen
Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
DIIS Working Paper reviews a recent influential branch within the Social Studies of Finance literature which asserts that financial markets are embedded in economics rather than in society (as scholars of the New Economic Sociology would have it). Coming from actor-network theory, the literature contributes conceptually to an extended ontology of markets and agency and empirically to an improved understanding of the importance of economist's role in constructing markets and assembling economic agency. It also draws attention to the staggering effects that material devices and technical 'details' can potentially have on the macrodynamics of financial markets. In some cases financial markets can even be performed by economics, that is, materialized in very close accordance with the economic models that describe them. From this insight they conclude that economics is a performative science and that the social sciences should consequently break down the Great (analytical) Divide between finance the- ory and financial markets.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Political Theory
Political Geography:
Greece

252. Britain and the 1960 Cyprus Accords: A Study in Pragmatism

Author:
Michael Moran
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:
One of the main factors that led directly to the present status quo in Cyprus tends to be forgotten. This was the extraordinary display of timidity on the part of Great Britain in the 1960s when confronted with determined Greek Cypriot attempts to make Cyprus Greek. And, needless to say, the subsequent forceful division of the island by Turkey in 1974 should always be seen in this earlier context: not, that is, as some kind of unforeseeable interruption in the island's natural and peaceful progression towards its Hellenic 'redemption'; least of all as the result of a brutal and arbitrary interference in a sovereign state on the part of a 'foreign power', both of which notions still circulate among many Greeks and their political sympathisers.
Topic:
Politics
Political Geography:
Britain, Turkey, Greece, and Cyprus

254. To the Editor: Armenia, Armenia

Author:
Ara Chutjian
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
In "The Old Turks' Revolt" (November/December 2007), Ömer Taspinar states, "Unlike the Ottoman elites, the Kemalists rejected multiethnic and multinational cosmopolitanism and banned Armenians, Greeks, and Jews from holding government jobs." On the night of April 24, 1915, the Ottoman police rounded up over 200 Armenian intellectuals, poets, politicians, writers, journalists, and translators from their homes in Istanbul; sent them to remote holding places; and murdered them. This began the systematic genocide of approximately 1.5 million Armenians, with another 2-2.5 million uprooted from their millennia-old homeland in central and eastern Turkey. o say that the Kemalists later banned the Armenians from government jobs is somewhat of a moot point. Qualified applicants had been assassinated earlier.
Political Geography:
Turkey, Greece, and Armenia

255. Europeanization and Nationalism in the Turkish-Greek Rapprochement

Author:
Harry G. Tzimitras
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
This paper attempts to evaluate the forces behind the Turkish-Greek rapprochement, its prospects and its limitations. In the first part, through an analysis of the route from détente to rapprochement, the case for sustainable changes in the foreign policies of the two countries will be made, from confrontation to cooperation. In the second part, the effect of Europeanization on the foreign policies of Greece and Turkey and on their bilateral disputes will be discussed, with a view to presenting the overall contribution of the EU to bilateral affairs in the way of opportunities offered and constraints set. Finally, in the third and fourth parts it is argued that obstacles to rapprochement still remain, particularly in the form of nationalism.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Nationalism
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Greece

256. Building Counter-Terrorism Capacity Across Borders: Lessons from the Defeat of "Revolutionary Organization November 17th"

Author:
Christos Floros and Bruce Newsome
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Security Sector Management
Institution:
Centre for Security Sector Management
Abstract:
Since 2001, governments have made more resources available for building counter-terrorist capacity abroad, but performance has not matched the rhetoric. Lessons from the defeat of the November 17th terrorist organization in Greece suggest that political or material commitments are necessary but insufficient conditions of international counter-terrorist capacity-building. More important, but less acknowledged, are the organizational conditions. Governments should encourage more cooperative, less self-reliant cultures in their agencies, develop multi-laterally beneficial objectives, and prohibit activities unauthorised by the host country. Some of the lessons, such as adherence to the same rules of law by all stakeholders, confirm norms in security sector reform. Others, such as increased security sector powers, run counter to those norms.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
America and Greece

257. Cold Case Files: The Athenian Grain Merchants, 386 B.C.

Author:
Wayne R. Dunham
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Cato Journal
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Food price increases have always been politically sensitive. Price spikes like those that have occurred recently create the demand for action on the part of government to alleviate the problem. Yet, government intervention can often do more harm than good. This article examines one such example of a counterproductive response that occurred in 388 B.C. in Athens, Greece. In response to a negative supply shock to the grain market, regulators encouraged grain importers to form a buyers' cartel (monopsony), hoping that it would reduce retail prices by first lowering wholesale grain prices. In reality, the decrease in wholesale prices resulted in a decrease in the willingness of producers in other regions to supply grain to Athens, and retail grain prices increased substantially. Grain importers soon found themselves on trial for their lives in what is probably the earliest recorded antitrust trial. This article uses the information presented at that trial and other contemporary sources to evaluate the grain merchants' actions. More generally, it analyses the impact of a buyer's cartel or monopsony on prices and consumption.
Topic:
Food
Political Geography:
Greece

258. Venetian Colonialism in the Aegean: Sifnos in the Thirteenth Century

Author:
Eleni Mahaira-Odoni
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
This paper explores the little-known beginning of Venetian rule of Sifnos, one of the Greek Aegean islands presumably apportioned to Venice following the Fourth Crusade in 1204. Whereas historians have traced the non-Venetian dynasts that ruled Sifnos after around 1310, no one has attempted to investigate the presumably preceding rulers: the Venetian "Soranzos of Sifnos," cursorily mentioned by a couple of scholars. Relying on sources as well as local fieldwork, this paper proposes that, before becoming doge of Venice in 1312, Giovanni Soranzo may indeed have been the first Venetian lord of Sifnos, between c. 1285 and 1310. The exploration of his career, the tragic life story of his daughter Soranza Soranzo and his son-in-law Niccolò Querini, point to Sifnos as a most likely location for the couple's refuge and exile following Querini's involvement in the 1310 seditious acts against the Republic of Venice. This conclusion is informed by a brief examination of apposite coats of arms, proper names and local toponyms.
Topic:
Post Colonialism
Political Geography:
Greece

259. Economic Survey of Greece, 2007

Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
Growth performance over the last decade has been among the best in the OECD, though a precise calibration is not yet possible following the recent revisions to GDP data. High growth has been driven by a range of factors, some of which are transitory. It is particularly encouraging that growth has been sustained over the last two years, despite substantial fiscal consolidation, mainly being driven by investment and exports. However, significant further reforms are needed to ensure that good performance is sustained in the years to come. It is imperative to use this period of strong performance to tackle remaining weaknesses in product and labour markets and move fiscal policy further towards a sustainable position by vigorous continued consolidation and pension reform. The key challenge, in terms of political economy, is to manage the required reforms in a context where society may be unduly complacent because the “good times” appear to be continuing.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

260. The Cyprus Stalemate: What Next?

Publication Date:
03-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The last round of Cyprus's drawn-out peace process ended in April 2004 when the Greek Cypriot community, which had long advocated reunification of the divided island on a bicommunal and bizonal basis, overwhelmingly rejected the UN-sponsored “Annan Plan”, which provided for just that. At the same time on the northern side of the Green Line, the Turkish Cypriot community, in a major reversal of its traditional preference for secession, backed reunification. The failure of the referendum did not stop a still-divided Cyprus being admitted to membership of the EU a week later. Notwithstanding clear continuing support for the Annan Plan, or some variation of it, among all other members of the EU and the wider international community, the present situation remains stalemated.
Topic:
International Relations, Peace Studies, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Turkey, Eastern Europe, Greece, United Nations, and Cyprus