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1. Energy investment in a time of inflation

Author:
Charles Lichfield and Joseph Webster
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
High rates of inflation across the world are forcing central banks to reluctantly tighten monetary policy despite accompanying recession risks. Moreover, restricted credit access could jeopardize energy investments, particularly for capital-intensive clean energy projects, potentially rendering the world more vulnera­ble energy to price shocks, which are a significant contributor to the current crisis. This paper briefly considers the macroeconomic drivers of inflation in late 2022, including Russia’s war in Ukraine and uncertainties around energy supply, supply-chain resets, and lingering COVID-19 disruptions, before examining the persistent energy underinvestment of the past decade and how this has left markets exposed to varying degrees. As such, this paper also considers how private capital can accelerate cleaner energy adoption, suited to different markets’ unique conditions and needs. Bor­rowing costs will rise, but this doesn’t have to bring the transition to a standstill. With the Great Moderation of low volatility, interest rates, and inflation perhaps a relic of the past, assets offering inflation protection, such as infrastructure, may become increas­ingly attractive to investors. There is a fear that global inflation will sharply curtail energy investment into emerging markets. The fear is justified. Higher interest rates in developed markets mean higher rates of return which will lure emerging markets investors back to the US and Europe. Still, it’s not all bad news for emerging markets. Quasi-state actors like Pension and Sovereign Welfare funds are interested in very long term, high-yield projects—two criteria to which emerging market energy infrastructure correspond. Disruptions to interest rates and inflation, triggered in part by energy underinvestment, will cause disparate impacts in different markets. Inflation is not, perhaps, everywhere and always a mone­tary phenomenon. Energy investment faltered from 2014 to 2020, despite low interest rates. Meanwhile, aggre­gate supply shocks—first due to COVID, then from Putin’s invasion of Ukraine—have pressured energy production and prices, raising inflation and necessitating interest rate hikes. The consequences of persistent energy underinvest­ment are now becoming apparent. The need for new energy infrastructure cannot be met without private investment. This was the case when infla­tion was lower; it is even more important now.
Topic:
Environment, Markets, Oil, Governance, Gas, Economy, Investment, Inflation, and Energy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2. What needs to change for green funds to be truly green

Author:
Jan Fichtner, Robin Jaspert, and Johannes Petry
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Green investment funds are growing rapidly. However, their impact on climate change mitigation and sustainability remains unclear. Recent research has identified key shortcomings that need to be addressed in order to reduce greenwashing and make these funds truly green. Green finance is playing an ever more prominent role in recent years. Environmental, social and governance (ESG) funds, which constitute a key pillar of green finance, saw record inflows of hundreds of billions of US-dollars in recent years, primarily by retail investors. Essentially, these ‘green’ funds are integrating environmental, social and governance criteria, such as greenhouse gas emissions, labour rights and gender diversity into their investment strategy. They claim to invest less in the stocks of firms that are highly polluting or have bad governance practices, and instead buy the shares of corporations that appear to be more sustainable. In industry and policy debates, ESG funds are often cited as advancing the promotion of sustainability and helping to address climate change. However, the ESG concept, its underlying criteria, and its potential effects are highly controversial. Many critics see ESG primarily as ‘window dressing’, with no significant positive impact – either for the environment or for investors and employees.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Oil, Gas, Capitalism, Sustainability, and Minerals
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3. Global oil theft: impact and policy responses

Author:
Etienne Romsom
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper, the first of two on global oil theft and fraud, discusses the prevalence, methods, and consequences of global oil theft, valued at US$133 billion per year and equivalent to 5–7 per cent of the global market for crude oil and petroleum fuels. However, the impact of oil theft is significantly larger than the value of theft itself. Government tax yields have been assessed for 30 developing countries associated with oil theft and found to be significantly lower than in the International Monetary Fund’s benchmark study. Oil theft, smuggling, and illicit trade in petroleum products are often seen as lesser forms of crime than human trafficking, the drugs trade, smuggling of weapons, kidnapping, and terrorism. However, oil theft as an act of opportunity tends to evolve into organized crime and, if left unchecked, oil theft may interlink with other organized crime activities and groups. Actions against oil theft should target the transnational crime syndicates that continue to find ways to replicate their thefts by adapting their theft strategies and business models. However, there is a lack of basic data, including how much oil is stolen, how the stolen oil is transported, and how illicit oil transactions are conducted. The mixing of legal commercial operations with illegal oil theft activities and fraud obscures many oil theft crimes.
Topic:
Corruption, Oil, International Crime, and Tax Evasion
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4. Countering global oil theft: responses and solutions

Author:
Etienne Romsom
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This second of two papers on global oil theft discusses ways to reduce oil theft, misappropriation, and fraud. At US$133 billion per year, oil is the largest stolen natural resource globally, while fuel is the most smuggled natural resource. Oil theft equates to 5–7 per cent of the global market for crude oil and petroleum fuels. It is so engrained in the energy supply chain that thefts are priced in by traders and tolerated by many shipping companies as petty theft. Oil theft and related insecurity have substantial negative economic effects on developing countries, whether they produce oil or not. In 2012, non-oil-producing Benin saw a 28 per cent drop in taxable income after a spate of oil tanker hijacking incidents in the Gulf of Guinea in 2011. In Nigeria, the oil capacity shut-in and amount of oil deferred is more than twice the amount estimated as stolen, with a US$20 billion annual loss in petroleum profit tax—63 per cent of total government tax revenue in 2019. Organized oil crime syndicates are often transnational and conduct theft and fraud professionally, exploiting gaps in jurisdiction and adapting their practices when law enforcement becomes more effective. They evolve from ship piracy to stealing tanker cargoes to kidnapping tanker crews; from physical ransom of assets to digital hijacking via ransomware. The proceeds of oil theft often finance other organized crime, and it triggers violence against the community and in crime-on-crime activities. Twelve commonalities in oil theft and fraud have been identified that can direct international solutions, in three target areas: stolen oil volumes, stolen oil transport, and stolen oil money. Prosecution for acts of bribery offers opportunities for action: transport of or payment for illegal oil could constitute a bribe under the US Foreign Corrupt Practice Act if government officials were involved in the transaction or shipment. Bribe charges could be raised for paid ‘services’ that facilitate oil theft (through action or non-action).
Topic:
Corruption, Oil, Piracy, Cybersecurity, Fossil Fuels, Tax Evasion, and Theft
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5. Sanctions and the Economic Consequences of Higher Oil Prices

Author:
Christof Ruhl
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
Sanctions against the Russian Federation are developing so fast that it is hard to keep track of them and even harder to see a consistent narrative as events unfold. But there is one. Russia is the world’s largest exporter of energy and commodities. A persistent balance of payment surplus is the source of its financial strength, in terms of both current income and the financial assets previously accumulated by “fortress Russia.” Oil, gas, and coal exports constitute the most valuable revenue streams and are therefore prime targets of sanctions policy.[1] The problem is that energy sanctions will backfire badly if they lead to price increases large enough to derail the economic performance of sanctioning countries.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
Global Focus

6. PLUS Politics: Tackling the EIA Impact Gap

Author:
Columbia Centre on Sustainable Investment
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Oil, gas, and mining projects can be profoundly disruptive to lives and livelihoods and damaging to air, water, soil, and vegetation. Evidence of this abounds across the world, from the Niger Delta and the Gulf of Mexico to Brumadinho, Brazil, and Porgera, Papua New Guinea. Understanding and addressing the social and environmental repercussions of EI development projects is crucial for avoiding or effectively managing such negative outcomes and fostering sustainable development. To date, environmental impact assessment (EIA) processes have been the cornerstone of efforts to identify and address social and environmental impacts of proposed development projects, including extractive industry projects and associated infrastructure. In practice, however, crucial aspects of these processes — the production of EIAs, consultations around the findings and implications of reports, and the actual use of the content of reports to inform key project decisions — are at times considerably distorted by power and incentive dynamics rooted in the political economy of a given context. The result is too often watered-down “box-ticking” exercises in which the impact of the EIA process on actual social and environmental protection can be greatly reduced. Technocratic approaches that emphasize best practices and capacity will not improve the performance of EIA processes on their own. Politically savvy approaches are needed to address the political challenges associated with EIAs, as even the most technically sound and capacitated EIA processes can be derailed by political factors. This brief is based on a longer chapter on the topic produced for a United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) publication on development corridors.1 It aims to present the gaps between various aspects of the theory and practice of EIAs, explore some of the ways in which political factors may be contributing to these gaps, and suggest how future work on social and environmental protection and management might better account for political context in hopes of achieving greater impact.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Oil, Natural Resources, Gas, and Mining
Political Geography:
Global Focus

7. Oil Pipelines in the Silk Road Region Coordination and Collaboration Amidst Competition and Confrontation

Author:
Rodrigo Labardini
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
For centuries, numerous proj­ects have wanted to connect the Caspian Sea to its main markets in the East (China) and the West (Europe). All vie to link en­ergy sources (oil and gas) and goods (commodities and manufactured products) with consumers. Con­temporary pipelines and transport corridors are presented as cost‑effi­cient, faster, and profitable, and thus sound economical alternatives to traditional hauling via tankers. Reviewing the political map, con­tinental pathways between East and West must traverse two regional “choke‑points,” each with three alter­native routes. First, the “Eastern Gap” at the Caspian Sea: Russia, Iran, and the Caspian Sea. The Caspian Sea region also includes Azerbaijan, of course, since it is the only state (together with Russia and Iran) located on its western bank, with routing options via the Caucasus to reach the Black Sea and Anatolia on to Europe. Second, the “Western Gap” at the Black Sea: Russia (again), the Black Sea, and Anatolia. The South Caucasus’ unique geo­graphical location between East and West as well as between Russia and Iran place it at a strategic crossroads of key geopolitical interest. Furthermore, the Caucasus‑Caspian Sea‑Central Asia region (CCCA) today—this corre­sponds more or less to what the edi­tors of Baku Dialogues have called the “Silk Road region”—is merging ever closer with Eurasian and Middle East politics. The politicization of energy and transport—with pipeline poli­tics often dealing with opposing eco­nomic and partisan interests—as well as sanctions against Russia and Iran, also raises the importance of sanc­tions‑free routes. Compounding these issues is the fact that several countries in the region are landlocked, depen­dent on transit states, and vulnerable to the latter’s maneuvers.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Oil, Natural Resources, and Silk Road
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8. Risky Bet: National Oil Companies in the Energy Transition

Author:
David Manley and Patrick Heller
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
The global energy transition from fossil fuels to cleaner energy will profoundly affect the global economy. It will limit how much greenhouse gases humanity emits and hopefully avoid catastrophic global warming. This transition will, however, also have a profound effect on state-owned national oil companies (NOCs). NOCs—in which the government is the sole or the dominant shareholder—produce half of the world’s oil and gas, and invest 40 percent of the capital in the global oil and gas industry. They are also important for millions of citizens in the developing countries where many NOCs operate. This report explores the risks the energy transition brings for NOCs and governments reliant on oil revenues. With the pace of energy transition uncertain, the authors of this report offer a warning to governments and NOCs as they consider their future investment plans.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Oil, and Investment
Political Geography:
Global Focus

9. How Can Anticorruption Actors Use EITI Disclosures?

Author:
Sebastian Sahla, Alexandra Gillies, and Matthieu Salomon
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Corruption in the extractive industries represents one of the main obstacles to ensuring that natural resources contribute to sustainable development. The heightened corruption risks across the sector are well documented, with many of the most prominent global corruption cases in recent years involving actors in oil, gas and mining. High-profile corruption scandals have occurred in several EITI countries. In Colombia, a former EITI supporting company has faced investigations over alleged illegal political campaign financing. Two large oil companies and their executives face criminal trial in Italy over a controversial oil deal in Nigeria. In Iraq, a “fixer” company bribed officials to help its clients secure oil industry contracts. EITI reports are silent on these and many other alleged cases of corruption. This has raised critical questions, particularly among civil society actors and academics, about the relevance of EITI in addressing the sector’s most pressing challenges. Although EITI reports rarely speak directly about corruption, they are nevertheless an important resource for anticorruption actors. As the EITI considers how it can more effectively play a role in addressing corruption, the authors of this report aim to shed light on how EITI’s current reporting can help oversight actors understand and address corruption risks. The authors identify best practices in how EITI countries disclose corruption-related information, highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of the initiative and providing insights that can help EITI maximize its relevance to future anticorruption efforts. Based on a review of EITI documents from 17 countries, the authors identify trends in how reporting presents corruption-related information.
Topic:
Corruption, Development, Oil, Natural Resources, Gas, and Industry
Political Geography:
Global Focus

10. Stuck in the Past: Lessons on Emissions for Developing Oil Producers

Author:
David Manley and David Mihalyi
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
As much of the world slowly moves into a low-carbon future, a group of countries are firmly stuck in a fossil-fuel past. These are mainly countries rich in fossil fuel resources. This is not only a problem for the global target to limit the emissions of greenhouse gases, but it puts these countries under a “carbon curse”. Under this curse, people pay more for energy, might be locked out of trading opportunities with countries with carbon taxes, and breath dirtier air. These fossil fuel-rich countries provide a lessons for developing countries with fossil fuels that are still to industrialize. These are countries that still have time to change direction to avoid being stuck in the past, and move into a more prosperous and cleaner future. Key messages Most economies are slowly decarbonizing, but the economies of high-income, fossil fuel-rich countries are not. This is the case whether examining production- or consumption-based emissions. Low-income, fossil fuel-rich countries can learn from the experience of wealthier fossil fuel-rich countries. Remaining on their current path could mean that low-income, fossil fuel-rich countries could face high energy costs, exclusion from export markets, and failure to meet future climate commitments.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Oil, Carbon Tax, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
Global Focus

11. National Oil Companies and Climate Change: Insights for Advocates

Author:
Patrick Heller, Greg Muttitt, Alexandra Gillies, Paasha Mahdavi, David Manley, Valerie Marcel, Joachim Roth, Lourdes Melgar, Francisco J. Monaldi, and Angelo Picciariello
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
National oil companies are the “hidden half” of the global oil industry. The authors of this briefing write that climate and development advocates who seek to reduce fossil fuel supply and promote sustainable economies must engage with these state-owned companies, many of which are based in countries with high levels of poverty.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, and State-Owned Enterprises
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12. DART-BIO: A technical description

Author:
Ruth Delzeit, Tobias Heimann, Franziska Schunemann, and Mareike Soder
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
The goal of this technical paper is to present in a transparent way a detailed description of the DART-BIO model – the bioeconomy and land use version of the DART model. Key feature of the DART-BIO model is the explicit representation of the vegetable oil industry and the biofuel sector. The paper describes the construction and aggregation of the database used for the DART-BIO model. Further the theoretical structure of the model is elaborated. Thereby, crucial assumptions, elasticities and parameters embedded in the model are presented.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Oil, Biology, and Farming
Political Geography:
Global Focus

13. Oil Intensity: The Curiously Steady Decline of Oil in GDP

Author:
Christof Ruhl and Titus Erker
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
Oil is the largest primary fuel, and the trajectory of oil consumption is of great concern and consequence for economic, political, and, not least, for climate change reasons. Anticipating oil prices and production from year to year is not easy; identifying even basic ingredients of aggregate demand and supply schedules, such as price or income elasticities, is notoriously difficult. It’s an additional challenge to model the structure of a market that sometimes appears to be highly cartelized, and at other times populated by a large flock of peaceful price takers. But a remarkably steady metric—and possible tool for projecting consumption into the future—has been identified in this paper: oil intensity. Oil intensity is the volume of oil consumed per unit of gross domestic product (GDP). Measured simply in barrels per dollar, it is often viewed as a broad measure of oil efficiency; it certainly demonstrates the importance of oil in a society. The efficiency of oil use has improved, in other words oil intensity has declined, over the years and decades. In 1973, for example, when oil intensity was at its zenith, the world used a little less than one barrel of oil to produce $1,000 worth of GDP (2015 prices). By 2019 (the last data set before Covid) global oil intensity was 0.43 barrel per $1,000 of global GDP—a 56% decline. Oil has become a lot less important and humanity has become more efficient in making use of it. What is worth a closer look, and is the focus of this paper reporting on oil and gas related research at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, is the pattern by which this progress has been achieved. Since 1984, oil intensity has fallen every year in an almost perfectly linear fashion: the amount of oil used per dollar of global GDP has dropped by roughly the same amount each year. Wars and revolutions, booms and busts, OPEC successes and failures, and every other monumental event in the last 35 years left their imprint on oil markets but didn’t alter oil intensity’s steady, downward crawl. This kind of regularity is very rare in any long-time trend, in economics or in energy. Although oil intensity isn’t a new topic, an attempt to explain its curiously consistent downward progress—or even any discussion about it—is hard to find in the literature. For this paper, the authors explain the trend and cross-validate its predictive potential before delving into possible reasons behind the linear decline in oil intensity. It finally extrapolates what such a continuing trend might mean for oil consumption and policies around it going forward.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, and GDP
Political Geography:
Global Focus

14. The Impact of ESG on National Oil Companies

Author:
Luisa Palacios
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
The rise of ESG investing—investment focused on environmental stewardship, social responsibility, and corporate governance—in the 21st century has created significant pressures on oil companies. Some shareholders of international oil companies (IOCs) have pressed them to pay closer attention to ESG goals and diversify their business models away from hydrocarbons and into other sources of energy amid efforts to address greenhouse gas emissions.[1] National oil companies (NOCs)—which currently control about 50 percent of the world’s oil production—have different corporate mandates than their IOC peers that might imply a more complicated relationship with ESG goals. NOCs are mainly owned by governments in the developing world, and thus face vastly different demands than IOCs answering to private sector shareholders.[2] But different does not mean NOCs do not or will not feel pressure to address ESG issues. Given NOCs’ significant share of global oil production—and the fact that this share may increase as IOCs diversify—the pressures they face and changes they make could have a significant impact on the future of the oil and gas industry as well as countries’ abilities to meet climate goals. During the November 2021 COP 26 meetings in Glasgow, Saudi Arabia and India became the latest countries with strong NOCs to pledge to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions in the next decades.[3] This commentary examines how the ESG agenda is impacting NOCs through the ecosystem of organizations and principles that have emerged from the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Agreement as well as from investors and regulators in global financial markets. The piece then describes the three components of the ESG framework in relation to NOCs and the challenges of accurately measuring adherence to them due to insufficient standardization of metrics and the variety of reporting frameworks. Also, because environmental, social, and governance competence are not strictly related to one another, companies may be strong in some areas and weak in others, making it difficult to evaluate their ESG performance as a whole.[4] Finally, while ESG pressures are coming alongside discussions about the energy transition and climate change, ESG assessments do not evaluate companies’ energy transition plans, even if some aspects of ESG scores might provide insights about them. The commentary pays special attention to the importance of corporate governance for national oil companies in achieving overall ESG goals, given the key differences between their ownership structure and that of private sector companies working in the oil industry.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, and Green Technology
Political Geography:
Global Focus

15. This Time is Different. The "COVID-Shock" and Future of the Global Oil Market

Author:
Giuliano Garavini
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Oil markets are facing a perfect storm. The scissors of supply and demand are moving against one another, generating increasing pain on the oil industry and the political and financial stability of oil-producing countries. Global oil demand is dropping due to the recession induced by the COVID-19 shut down of economic activity and transport in the most industrialized countries. Goldman Sachs predicts that global demand could drop from 100 million barrels per day (mdb) in 2019 to nearly 80 mdb in 2020.1 If confirmed, this would be single biggest demand shock since petroleum started its race to become the most important energy source in the world.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Oil, Global Markets, and Economy
Political Geography:
Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Global Focus

16. Components of defence strategies in society’s information environment: a case study based on the grounded theory

Author:
Erja Birgitta Mustonen-Ollila, Martti Lehto, and Jukka Heikkonen
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The goal of this study is to explore the components of defence strategies faced by society in its information environment, and how these strategies are inter-related. This qualitative in-depth case study applied past research and empirical evidence to identify the components of defence strategies in a society’s information environment. The data collected was analysed using the Grounded Theory approach and a conceptual framework with the components of defence strategies and the relationships between these components was developed using the Grounded Theory. This study shows that the goal of politically and militarily hostile actors is to weaken society’s information environment, and that their operations are coordinated and carried out over a long time period. The data validates past studies and reveals relationships between the components of defence strategies. These relationships increase confidence in the validity of these components and their relationships, and expand the emerging theory. First, the data and findings showed 16 inter-connected components of defence strategies. Second, they showed that the political, military, societal, power, and personal goals of the hostile actors carrying out cyber operations and cyber attacks are to weaken society’s information environment. Third, they revealed that cyber operations and cyber attacks against networks, information and infrastructures are coordinated operations, carried out over a long time period. Finally, it was revealed that the actors defending society’s information environment must rapidly change their own components of defence strategies and use the newest tools and methods for these components in networks, infrastructures and social media.
Topic:
Security, Oil, Maritime, and Energy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

17. Rebalancing Oil Supply and Demand

Author:
East View Information Services
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:
East View Information Services
Abstract:
Interview with Yur Shafranik, Chairman of the Board of Directors, International Group of Companies SoyuzNefteGaz
Topic:
Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
Global Focus

18. Volume 70 Issue 1

Author:
Muhittin Kaplan
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
Istanbul Journal of Economics-İstanbul İktisat Dergisi is an open access, peer-reviewed, scholarly journal published two times a year in June and December. It has been an official publication of Istanbul University Faculty of Economics since 1939. The manuscripts submitted for publication in the journal must be scientific and original work in Turkish or English. Being one of the earliest peer-reviewed academic journals in Turkey in the area of economics, Istanbul Journal of Economics-İstanbul İktisat Dergisi aims to provide a forum for exploring issues in basicly economics and publish both disciplinary and multidisciplinary articles. Economics is the main scope of the journal. However, multidisciplinary and comparative approaches are encouraged as well and articles from various social science areas such as sociology of economics, history, social policy, international relations, financial studies are welcomed in this regard. The target group of the journal consists of academicians, researchers, professionals, students, related professional and academic bodies and institutions.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, Oil, Political Science, Exchange Rate Policy, Macroeconomics, Currency, R&D, Price, and OECD
Political Geography:
Turkey, Nigeria, and Global Focus

19. Energy Futures: Oil And The Oil Industry

Author:
Richard A. Sears
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
Abundant affordable energy has built the world in which we live today. Machines and the chemical energy that drives them have made it possible for a small percentage of the population to produce enough food for many of us to be scientists, engineers, artists, and authors. We are only able to pursue our diverse interests because available energy multiplies human effort many times over. With all the good that has come with access to energy resources extracted from the Earth, there is also an environmental price, which impacts our land, water, and air. My intent here is not to debate the merits of our current energy system; it is the reality in which we exist. Humans and human society have become dependent on energy in so many ways that we cannot simply undo what we have and flip overnight to alternatives that we believe preserve the benefits without the costs. The scale of our global energy use is enormous, and the infrastructure we have built to deliver that energy and convert it to useful work has been developed over more than a century. It will realistically take several decades for energy alternatives to grow to replace the major sources of primary energy that we utilize today; similarly, it will take many decades to rebuild our energy infrastructure to efficiently utilize new sources of primary energy.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Environment, Oil, Natural Resources, Infrastructure, and Fossil Fuels
Political Geography:
Global Focus

20. World Oil Security On A Precipice

Author:
Charles F. Doran
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
By attacking a major Saudi oil facility at Abqaiq on 13 September 2019, Iran established a new norm regarding oil security. Now, no oil field, pipeline, refinery, supertanker, or port facility is free from internecine warfare between oil-producing (OPEC) governments. Ironically, in attempting to defend a country from supply interruption, the United States risks worsening the magnitude and scope of that supply interruption rather than preventing its occurrence. In the era of highly accurate drones and missiles, the old oil field motto “all oil comes from a single barrel” has taken on a newly negative connotation. World oil stability rests on a precipice. Both exporters and importers suffer from supply interruption, although perhaps not equally, universally, or simultaneously. Supply interruption may benefit those who have oil to sell through resultant oil price increases if their own exports have not been interrupted. The same cannot be said for buyers who, unless they are energy speculators on the futures market, ardently want to prevent supply interruption and the virtually certain subsequent (though sometimes not lasting) increase in price.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Environment, International Political Economy, Oil, OPEC, and Pipeline
Political Geography:
Saudi Arabia and Global Focus

21. In The Era Of U.S. Energy Abundance: The Role Of The Caspian Region In U.S. Policy

Author:
Brenda Shaffer
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
For most of the last fifty years, international energy policy has been a major focus of U.S. foreign and national security policy. Washington has viewed ensuring the energy security of its allies—especially in Europe, Japan, and South Korea—as part of its own national security. In this approach to energy policy, the United States was unique and contrasted with most Western countries, which generally treated energy policy as part of their economic and/or environmental policies. Washington has engaged in international energy policy on the highest executive levels in the White House and established influential units within cabinet departments and agencies to promote international energy policies and to integrate them with U.S. national security and foreign policies. Within the Department of State, successive special ambassadors were appointed to promote various international and regional energy policies and, in 2011, a full Bureau of Energy Resources was established.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Energy Policy, Environment, Oil, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
United States, Caspian Sea, and Global Focus

22. Do Commodity Price Shocks Cause Armed Conflicts? A Meta-Analysis of Natural Experiments

Author:
Graeme Blair, Darin Christensen, and Aaron Rudkin
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
Abstract:
Scholars of the resource curse argue that reliance on primary commodities destabilizes governments: price fluctuations generate windfalls or periods of austerity that provoke or intensify civil conflict. Over 350 quantitative studies test this claim, but prominent results point in different directions, making it difficult to discern which results reliably hold across contexts. We conduct a meta-analysis of 46 natural experiments that use difference-in-difference designs to estimate the causal effect of commodity price changes on armed civil conflict. We show that commodity price changes, on average, do not change the likelihood of conflict. However, there are cross-cutting effects by commodity type. In line with theory, we find price increases for labor-intensive agricultural commodities reduce conflict, while increases in the price of oil, a capital-intensive commodity, provoke conflict. We also find that price increases for lootable artisanal minerals provoke conflict. Our meta-analysis consolidates existing evidence, but also highlights opportunities for future research.
Topic:
Agriculture, Oil, Natural Resources, Commodities, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Global Focus

23. A Race to the Bottom and Back to the Top: Taxing Oil and Gas During and After the Pandemic

Author:
David Manley, David Mihalyi, and Colin Fleming
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Earlier this year as people around the world responded to the coronavirus pandemic, their demand for oil tumbled. At the same time, OPEC and Russia initially failed to agree to coordinate supply cuts. Consequently, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil fell from $60 in December 2019 to $20 in April 2020. As of this publication, the price is $43. If the price stays low, and if oil executives expect the price to remain low, companies may lobby governments to reduce taxes and other costly regulations. Payments to governments are often larger than costs for a company, so there is pressure on governments to reduce taxes to keep projects viable. This briefing considers the following key questions: Where will the oil price go next? What is the impact on currently operating projects, undeveloped projects, and those that are yet to be discovered? How should governments respond in changing oil and gas taxes? Will governments try to “race to the bottom,” but then lose a race back to the top? Key messages: There’s no certainty over future prices. Some rise is likely in the next few years, even if an energy transition results in a structural decline in the oil price in the longer-term. Governments must consider this uncertainty and probable rise when taxing oil and gas. Tax breaks on most currently operating projects are likely a waste of public money. Some governments may be pressured into reducing tax on projects awaiting development. But they must identify which projects would become viable with lower taxes, and which do not need a tax break. If in doubt, governments should consider whether a project that needs a tax incentive really will provide value for the country. For most countries, relative to total oil and gas produced, the production from projects that could be delayed or cancelled is small. But not so for the “new producer” countries like Senegal and Guyana. Changing taxes to make a country more attractive has the most impact before companies have invested – e.g., in attracting investment in licensing rounds. But setting low taxes now could force a government to raise taxes later if prices rise again. If a tax break is unavoidable, governments could use a “sunset clause” to limit the duration of the tax break. Ideally, governments should set progressive tax regimes that respond to changes in profit. But as many taxing authorities struggle to measure profit, governments could set simpler tax regimes based on sales revenue or prices – but must prepare to change tax rates in the future, and be prepared for the repercussion for a government’s credibility with investors. Governments should disclose contract terms detailing tax changes, tax exemptions, incentives and estimated break-even prices of projects to help government auditors, local think tanks, and the public check and support tax policy decisions.
Topic:
Oil, Natural Resources, Gas, Tax Systems, Commodities, Coronavirus, and Revenue Management
Political Geography:
Global Focus

24. ESG Investing and the Oil and Gas Industry: Moving Toward a Holistic Approach to Risk, Governance; Performance Measurement, Disclosure, and Results

Author:
Hon Xing Wong, Marianne Kah, and Erin Blanton
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
On September 17, 2020, Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP) held a virtual workshop about environmental performance in the oil and gas industry. Investors, senior oil and gas industry executives, NGOs, and other stakeholders participated in this candid discussion about how environmental risks should be measured, disclosed, and incorporated into investment decisions.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, Gas, and NGOs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

25. World Oil Security on a Precipice

Author:
Charles F. Doran
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
By attacking a major Saudi oil facility at Abqaiq on 13 September 2019, Iran established a new norm regarding oil security. Now, no oil field, pipeline, refinery, supertanker, or port facility is free from internecine warfare between oil-producing (OPEC) governments. Ironically, in attempting to defend a coun- try from supply interruption, the United States risks worsening the magnitude and scope of that supply interruption rather than preventing its occurrence. In the era of highly accurate drones and missiles, the old oil field motto “all oil comes from a single barrel” has taken on a newly negative connotation. World oil stability rests on a precipice. Both exporters and importers suffer from supply interruption, although perhaps not equally, universally, or simultaneously. Supply interruption may benefit those who have oil to sell through resultant oil price increases if their own exports have not been interrupted. The same cannot be said for buyers who, unless they are energy speculators on the futures market, ardently want to prevent supply interruption and the virtually certain subsequent (though sometimes not lasting) increase in price.
Topic:
Security, Markets, Oil, and Energy
Political Geography:
Global Focus and Gulf Nations

26. Energy Futures: Oil and the Oil Industry

Author:
Richard A. Sears
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
Abundant affordable energy has built the world in which we live today. Machines and the chemical energy that drives them have made it possible for a small percentage of the population to produce enough food for many of us to be scientists, engineers, artists, and authors. We are only able to pursue our diverse interests because available energy multiplies human effort many times over. With all the good that has come with access to energy resources extracted from the Earth, there is also an environmental price, which impacts our land, water, and air. My intent here is not to debate the merits of our current energy system; it is the reality in which we exist. Humans and human society have become de- pendent on energy in so many ways that we cannot simply undo what we have and flip overnight to alternatives that we believe preserve the benefits without the costs. The scale of our global energy use is enormous, and the infrastruc- ture we have built to deliver that energy and convert it to useful work has been developed over more than a century. It will realistically take several decades for energy alternatives to grow to replace the major sources of primary energy that we utilize today; similarly, it will take many decades to rebuild our energy infrastructure to efficiently utilize new sources of primary energy.1
Topic:
Climate Change, Oil, Renewable Energy, Industry, and Energy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

27. Electric Vehicle Penetration and Its Impact On Global Oil Demand: A Survey of 2019 Forecast Trends

Author:
Marianne Kah
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
Columbia University’s Center for Global Energy Policy is undertaking a multiyear study on the prospects for and timing of peak oil demand. An essential piece of the puzzle is understanding what happens to global oil demand in the passenger vehicle sector, since it is the sector with the largest oil demand use today. Policy makers in a growing number of countries are supporting passenger vehicle electrification or a phaseout of fossil fuel passenger vehicles to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve urban air quality. To understand the trajectory of oil demand in this sector, it is important to comprehend the magnitude and timing of electric vehicle (EV) penetration. The pace of demand growth matters. If the world doesn’t move off oil at a rapid rate, it is important that policy makers recognize the need for investment in new oil supplies to prevent supply shortages and accompanying oil price spikes. Numerous studies analyzing the impact of EVs on oil demand have been published. It is difficult to compare these studies because they do not define the passenger vehicle sector the same way or provide underlying assumptions on a comparable basis. Last year, the author conducted a survey of all available global electric passenger vehicle penetration forecasts to compare underlying assumptions and the impact on oil demand. The author conducted a similar survey in 2019 to understand how views on EV penetration are changing. This report describes the results from the 2019 survey and indicates how views have changed since last year. Rationale for Studying the Passenger Vehicle Sector As shown in figure 1, the passenger vehicle sector is the largest sector of oil use, representing about one-quarter of the oil demand barrel. The passenger vehicle sector is a target for policy makers because full penetration of EVs could ultimately take nearly 25 million barrels per day of oil use out of the market. However, it is important to understand the other 75 percent of the oil demand barrel before assessing the prospects of peak oil demand. It should be noted that the passenger vehicle sector gets a disproportionate amount of attention from policy makers and the media because of the current focus on electrification and the greater ease of electrifying passenger cars versus other modes of transportation. For example, it is easier to electrify a passenger car than a heavy-duty truck, where the large and costly batteries required will reduce cargo carrying capacity due to weight limits on roads. It is also more challenging to electrify airplanes than passenger cars.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Oil, Science and Technology, Infrastructure, and Green Technology
Political Geography:
Global Focus

28. The National Oil Company Database

Author:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
The National Oil Company Database helps fill a significant gap in knowledge of the global economy. National oil companies (NOCs) produce approximately 55 percent of the world’s oil and gas, pumping out an estimated 85 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. The World Bank has estimated that they control up to 90 percent of global oil and gas reserves, thereby serving as gatekeepers for international oil companies’ access to hydrocarbons. Within their home countries, NOCs influence the degree to which billions of people benefit—or suffer—as a result of their countries’ hydrocarbon wealth. Many of these companies manage multi-billion-dollar portfolios of public assets, execute complex projects across their territories and at sea, employ citizens in the tens or hundreds of thousands, and perform a range of public services from providing energy to building infrastructure.
Topic:
Government, Oil, Economy, and Database
Political Geography:
Global Focus

29. Beyond Revenues: Measuring and Valuing Environmental and Social Impacts in Extractive Sector Governance

Author:
Nicola Woodroffe and Tim Grice
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Oil, gas and mining projects can generate substantial revenues for host countries. At the same time, extractive activities generate a range of other positive and negative economic, environmental, social, political, institutional and cultural impacts. Host countries must weigh the economic benefits of extractive projects against their environmental and social impacts. However, environmental and social impacts are often assessed in separate processes and by separate institutions from those assessing financial revenues and the modeling, measuring and reporting of these impacts is rarely integrated with financial impacts.
Topic:
Environment, Oil, Natural Resources, Governance, Gas, and Mining
Political Geography:
Global Focus