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101. Global Futures Bulletin: The BRICS and the Decarbonization and Biodiversity Protection Challenges

Author:
Igarapé Institute
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Igarapé Institute
Abstract:
The world faces an unprecedented convergence of environmental crises – climate change, pollution, and biodiversity loss – that collectively threaten the planet’s ecological balance and humanity’s future. Reversing the Triple Planetary Crisis necessitates urgent and coordinated action across all sectors and countries, accelerating the transition to low-carbon economies while protecting biodiversity are key challenges for the coming years. Countries that have joined the BRICS in its inception (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) are increasingly an important geopolitical force in current global politics, and their individual and collective action is key to the success of concerted global action. The group’s recent expansion – BRICS+ includes Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Indonesia joining in 2025 and Saudi Arabia finally formalizing its membership – offers an opportunity to boost the role of their New Development Bank (NDB) in bridging climate, biodiversity, and development finance, and aim for greater policy coherence for concerted global action across these agendas. Combined, BRICS countries are not only biodiversity and energy-rich but also contribute to a large share of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This Strategic Paper examines the role of the expanded BRICS+ and explores whether and how this “mini-multilateral” grouping, with its considerable human and technological capacity, can address two major global challenges: accelerating decarbonization and protecting biological diversity. The discussion is framed around the opportunities and challenges faced by the member countries to increase their ambitions and become leading voices in these agendas – not only for BRICS countries (some of which are among the most biodiverse in the world) but also for the wider international community. Without a strong commitment by BRICS countries (individually and as a group) the world will fail to accelerate action on decarbonization and biodiversity protection.
Topic:
Climate Change, Pollution, BRICS, Decarbonization, Biodiversity, and Minilateralism
Political Geography:
Russia, China, South Africa, Brazil, and Global Focus

102. The Gendered Impact of Social Norms on Financial Access and Capital Misallocation

Author:
Arti Grover and Mariana Viollaz
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
This paper provides evidence on the nature of financial constraints faced by women entrepreneurs, especially in contexts of stringent social norms. Using micro-data from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys for 61 countries, the analysis shows that formal firms managed by women do not face credit constraints on the extensive margin. They are equally likely to apply for credit as their male counterparts and experience lower rates of credit rejection, with a higher likelihood of opening credit lines. However, on the intensive margin, firms managed by women receive lower credit amounts, indicating signs of credit constraints. This disparity in access to credit cannot be explained by gender differences in risk profiles, profitability, or productivity. However, firms managed by women have lower sales per worker, suggesting challenges in accessing product and labor markets. The paper finds suggestive evidence of capital misallocation based on gender, particularly in countries with more restrictive gender and cultural norms. Firms managed by women demonstrate a 15 percent higher average return on capital compared to firms managed by men, indicating the potential benefits of increased access to credit for women-led businesses. These findings emphasize the importance of addressing gender-specific constraints to accessing finance and promoting gender-inclusive policies to enhance firm growth and reduce capital misallocation.
Topic:
Culture, Fiscal Policy, Credit, Capital, Gender, and Social Norms
Political Geography:
Global Focus

103. Childhood Welfare Exposure and Economic Outcomes for Adult Daughters and Sons

Author:
Robert Paul Hartley, Carlos Lamarche, and James P. Ziliak
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
We investigate how length of time on welfare during childhood affects economic outcomes in early adulthood. Using intergenerationally linked mother-child pairs from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we adopt a nonlinear difference-in-differences framework using the 1990s welfare reform to estimate average and quantile treatment effects on intensity of welfare use and earnings in adulthood. The causal estimates indicate that additional childhood welfare exposure leads to more adulthood years on the broader safety net for both daughters and sons, yet this positive relationship only applies below moderate levels of adult welfare participation and reverses at greater levels of dependence. Increasing childhood welfare exposure implies lower earnings in adulthood for daughters, however we find no evidence that it depresses adult sons’ earnings. Both daughters and sons exhibit some wage penalty from childhood welfare exposure, yet only daughters are penalized through hours worked in the labor market.
Topic:
Economics, Income Inequality, Welfare, Labor Market, Gender, and Intergenerational
Political Geography:
Global Focus

104. Hard Times, Hard Attitudes? The Effect of Economic Downturns on Gender Norms

Author:
Inés Berniell, Leonardo Gasparini, Mariana Marchionni, and Mariana Viollaz
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
This paper examines the impact of economic fluctuations on social norms, specifically exploring the link between changes in unemployment and shifts in attitudes toward gender roles in the labor market. The results are not immediately obvious, as the literature suggests several potential mechanisms with conflicting outcomes. Using microdata from the World Values Survey for a panel of 103 countries that cover close to 90% of the world population, we estimate individual-level probability models of agreement with traditional gender roles over the period 1995 to 2021, including country and year fixed effects. We find that an increase in unemployment is associated to more conservative views about gender roles in the labor market. This result is remarkably robust across different groups and specifications. We also find that some contextual factors matter. In particular, the link between higher unemployment and more conservative views on gender roles is stronger in countries with, on average, higher gender inequality and lower female labor force participation. Overall, this study contributes to a growing body of research on the complex relationship between economic conditions, gender norms, and social change.
Topic:
Economics, Unemployment, Attitudes, Gender, and Social Norms
Political Geography:
Global Focus

105. The Future of Work(ers) in the Age of Technological Revolution

Author:
Andrés César
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
This chapter reviews key literature on the determinants and implications of technological change associated with the Third and Fourth Industrial Revolutions, which have spread globally since the late 20th century, and presents descriptive evidence. The main conclusion is that while technological progress has not significantly threatened overall employment opportunities, it has clearly contributed to rising income inequality. Consequently, a future devoid of employment is not anticipated, although the prospects for equality remain uncertain. I argue that to maximize the benefits of technological advancement, education must evolve in tandem with technology, equipping individuals to work alongside new innovations throughout their lives. This would enable workers to fully leverage automation of routine tasks and augmentation of abstract and cognitive tasks, fostering teamwork, problem-solving, flexibility, creativity, and social intelligence. Furthermore, productivity growth driven by technological progress is likely to increase demand for both traditional and new goods and services, generate income gains that increase demand for quality, accelerate structural change, and exert pressure on resource utilization.
Topic:
Education, Science and Technology, Income Distribution, Jobs, Technological Revolution, and Resource Utilization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

106. Peripheral Growth Models and the Global Economy: A Second Image IPE Perspective

Author:
Michael Schedelik and Andreas Nölke
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
The paper departs from the perspective of “second image IPE,” i.e., the need to closely combine Comparative Political Economy (CPE) and International Political Economy (IPE). More specifically, it focuses on the observation that the growth models in the (former) periphery of the global economy (a typical focus of CPE) are strongly shaped by their interdependencies with the structural transformations of the global economy (as studied by IPE). At the same time, the changes within the growth models of large economies in this periphery (CPE) can have a major impact on global interdependencies (IPE). For example, the rise of China as a major player in world trade and investment (“China shock”) has had a substantial impact on growth models elsewhere in the periphery, via import penetration, direct investment, and export demand. This paper shows how these growth models shape (and are shaped through) international interdependencies by analyzing (1) the effects of global commodity cycles on the growth experience of several major exporters of primary resources, such as Brazil or Indonesia, during and after the recent commodity boom. (2) We further elaborate on the effects of global financial cycles on peripheral countries, particularly those pursuing debt-led growth models, such as South Africa or Turkey. (3) We finally point to the role of global production chains and foreign direct investment for FDI-led growth models of manufacturing exporters such as Thailand or Vietnam in South East Asia.
Topic:
Political Economy, Foreign Direct Investment, Economy, Economic Growth, Commodities, Emerging Economies, and Growth Models
Political Geography:
Global Focus

107. Politics, AI and the Future of the University

Author:
Tim Clement-Jones
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
In the latest in the ‪Mile End Institute's 'In Conversation’ series, we were joined by the former Lawyer and Liberal Democrat spokesperson on Science, Innovation and Technology, Tim Clement-Jones CBE. Lord Clement-Jones is a Liberal Democrat peer, an expert in AI and the digital economy and an educationalist. He joined the House of Lords in 1998 and is now one of the country’s leading authorities on the creative industries. He has been a key figure in legislative discussions of AI and emerging technologies, and published his book, Living with the Algorithm in 2024. Having just completed his final term as Chair of Queen Mary’s Council, Lord Clement-Jones was in conversation with Professor Elke Schwarz about his early life, his political career, his experience of university management and the challenge of AI.
Topic:
Education, Politics, Science and Technology, Digital Economy, Artificial Intelligence, and Universities
Political Geography:
Global Focus

108. World Conference on Statelessness 2024 – Key Takeaways

Author:
Subin Mulmi and Jenna Biedscheid
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:
Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:
The Second World Conference on Statelessness was convened at Taylor’s University, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, from 26 to 29 February 2024.1It was co-organised by the Institute on Statelessness and Inclusion (ISI), Nationality for All (NFA), Development of Human Resources for Rural Areas Malaysia (DHRRA), Family Frontiers (‘FF’) and supported by the Human Rights Commission of Malaysia (SUHAKAM).The Conference was the biggest convening of the statelessness field to date, attended by 450 in-person participants and over 100 online participants from all over the world. Around 30% of the participants who responded to a voluntary survey identified themselves as persons with lived experience of statelessness.2This shows a significant increase from the first World Conference in 2019, where only 10% of participants had lived experience.3In contrast to the first Conference being held in The Hague, the venue moving to Malaysia is reflective of greater accessibility and representation, with the Asia Pacific holding the largest population of stateless persons in the world.4Over the course of three and a half days, the Conference featured plenary sessions, panel discussions, workshops and skill labs focusing on the three themes of ‘Solidarity, Knowledge and Change’. The Conference also featured the Immersive Arts and Culture Programmetitled‘Think of Others’,which was an integral part of the event.5This piece captures some of the key conversations that took place at the Conference and provides a reflective analysis from the perspective of two members of the organising team. Their analysis delves into broad takeaways that affect civil society and the statelessness ecosystem through the three themes of the Conference, with the purpose of targeting a diverse set of participants. The findings are based on the notes taken by the designated notetakers and the recorded videos of the plenary sessions.
Topic:
Development, Rural, Human Resources, Inclusion, Statelessness, and World Conference on Statelessness
Political Geography:
Global Focus

109. State-sponsored economic cyber-espionage for commercial purposes: Governmental practices in protecting IP-intensive industries

Author:
Gatra Priyandita and Bart Hogeveen
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
Since 2022, an increasing number of governments have introduced new policies, legislation, regulations and standards to deal with the threat to their economies from cyber-enabled IP theft. Most prominently, in October 2023, the heads of the major security and intelligence agencies of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK and the US (also known as the ‘Five Eyes’) appeared together in public for the first time, in front of a Silicon Valley audience, and called out China as an ‘unprecedented threat’ to innovation across the world.1 That was followed up in October 2024 with a public campaign called ‘Secure Innovation’. There is, however, variation in how governments frame their responses. Countries such as the UK and Australia take a national-security approach with policy instruments that seek to monitor the flow of knowledge and innovation to and from specific countries (primarily China). Other countries, such as Malaysia and Finland, take a due-diligence risk approach with a focus on awareness building and providing incentives to organisations to do their due-diligence checks before engaging with foreign entities. Countries such as Japan and Singapore, by contrast, take an economic-security approach in which they focus on engaging and empowering at-risk industries proactively. This report is the third in a compendium of three. The first report, State-sponsored economic cyber-espionage for commercial purposes: tackling an invisible but persistent risk to prosperity, published in 2022, looked at the scale, scope and impact of state-sponsored cyber-espionage campaigns aimed at extracting trade secrets and sensitive business information. The second report, State-sponsored economic cyber-espionage for commercial purposes: Assessing the preparedness of emerging economies to respond to cyber-enabled IP theft, looks at the extent to which agreed norms effectively constrain states from conducting economic cyber-espionage and also examines the varying levels of vulnerability experienced by selected major emerging economies. This third report complements those diagnoses by offering policymakers an action perspective based on good practices observed across the world. Various practices and examples have been selected, drawing from a multi-year capacity-building effort that included engagements in Southeast Asia, South Asia and Latin America and consultations with authorities in developed economies such as the US, Australia, Japan, Singapore and the Netherlands. Many of the practices covered in this report were presented at the Track 1 Dialogue on Good Governmental Practices that ASPI hosted during Singapore International Cyber Week 2023.
Topic:
Crime, Intellectual Property/Copyright, Cybersecurity, Business, and Espionage
Political Geography:
Global Focus

110. State-sponsored economic cyber-espionage for commercial purposes: Assessing the preparedness of emerging economies to defend against cyber-enabled IP theft

Author:
Gatra Priyandita and Bart Hogeveen
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
Strategic competition is deepening existing tensions and mistrust between states and prompts nations to develop capabilities that they consider central to sovereign national power. Technological capabilities sit at the centre of this. It’s therefore not surprising that governments around the world are seeking technological advantage over their competitors and potential adversaries. In this context, safeguarding intellectual property (IP) has become necessary not just because it’s an essential asset for any modern economy—developed or emerging—but because it’s also increasingly underwriting national and regional security. Today, middle-income countries1 ‘World Bank country and lending groups’, World Bank, 2024, online. that are seeking to progress in the global value chain are home to vibrant knowledge-intensive sectors. Some of the world’s largest science and technology clusters are located in São Paulo and Bengaluru, for example.2 Other exemplars include the biochemical industry in India, information and communication technology (ICT) firms in Malaysia and petroleum processors in Brazil. In fact, countries such as Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico and Vietnam have emerged as increasingly major producers of knowledge and innovation.3 Perhaps reflecting that changing reality, it’s middle-income countries that are confronted by increasing attempts to deprive them of their economic crown jewels. In our report State-sponsored economic cyber-espionage for commercial purposes: tackling an invisible but persistent risk to prosperity, ASPI estimated that the number of state-sponsored cyber incidents affecting private entities in Southeast Asia, South Asia, Latin America and the Middle East increased from 40% in 2014 to nearly 60% in 2020.4 To be clear: economic espionage isn’t new. But it’s the growing scale and intensification of economic cyber-espionage for commercial purposes—and as an integrated tool of statecraft—that is a cause for concern.
Topic:
Intellectual Property/Copyright, Cybersecurity, Espionage, and Emerging Economies
Political Geography:
Global Focus