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2. Virtual Briefing Series | Gaza’s Future: Its Neighbors and Trump Weigh In
- Author:
- Eyal Hulata and Mirette Mabrouk
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- President Donald Trump has apparently been pushing Egypt and Jordan to absorb the displaced Gazan population amid Arab opposition to his proposal. Trump also vowed to discuss the issue with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during his upcoming visit to Washington, DC. How realistic is this idea? And what’s at stake for both Palestinians and the security architecture of the broader region? This on-the-record briefing will feature Eyal Hulata, former head of Israel’s National Security Council (NSC). Hulata is also Senior International Fellow at The Foundation for Defense of Democracies. The briefing will also feature Mirette Mabrouk, Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute. Our experts will discuss Trump’s leverage regarding aid, the Palestinian reaction, Amman’s and Cairo’s political considerations, potential regional security implications, and how the fate of Gazan refugees may affect the longer-term resilience of Israel’s peace treaties with Jordan and Egypt.
- Topic:
- Displacement, Ethnic Cleansing, Donald Trump, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, Egypt, and Jordan
3. Translating Trump’s Disruptive Diplomacy into a New Reality in Gaza
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The turmoil caused by President Donald Trump’s statements regarding the future of Gaza – which include the eviction of its population, American governance, the creation of a “Middle Eastern Riviera,” and an ultimatum demanding the release of all hostages – highlights two key issues on which Trump’s positions appear self-contradictory. The call for the release of all hostages (and hence perhaps an end to the war) seems at odds with the administration’s firmly held view that Hamas must no longer be the ruling power in Gaza. At the same time, the call for Palestinians to leave Gaza contradicts the traditional commitment to America’s Arab friends (and clients). The stability of the regimes in Egypt and Jordan, if pushed to take the Gazans and punished for their refusal, could be endangered – despite King Abdullah’s efforts to mollify Trump during his visit to Washington. The future of their peace treaties with Israel would also be threatened. The Saudis too have responded abruptly, reiterating their support for Palestinian demands. Consequently, the region has been thrust into a state of crisis.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Donald Trump, 2023 Gaza War, and Hostages
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America
4. Trump Takes on the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
- Author:
- Michał Wojnarowicz
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Donald Trump’s actions and announcements to date regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict are reversing the decisions of previous administrations and strengthening Benjamin Netanyahu’s political position. At the same time, they threaten the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. The deliberately ambiguous statements about the resolution of the crisis seem gauged to increase pressure on regional states and European partners.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Donald Trump, Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America
5. An Analysis of Egyptian and Israeli Discourse on Israel’s Control of the Philadelphi Corridor during the 2023 Gaza War
- Author:
- Fatamaelzahraa Nassar and Ahmet Üçağaç
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
- Institution:
- Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
- Abstract:
- This study investigates the interplay between sovereignty discourse and national security through an analysis of Israeli and Egyptian discourses during Israel’s control over the Philadelphi Corridor following the 2023 Gaza War. Employing critical discourse analysis, the research examines official statements and media coverage from both nations, highlighting how sovereignty is mobilised to legitimize military actions and secure strategic advantages. The findings reveal contrasting approaches. Israel framed its actions as essential to national security and counterterrorism, using symbolic language to justify its occupation. On the other hand, Egypt sought to balance sovereignty discourse with regional stability and international obligations. However, both discourses displayed inconsistencies between rhetoric and practice, with significant implications for human security and regional stability. This study contributes to understanding the role of sovereignty discourse in shaping geopolitical conflicts and offers insight into the challenges of aligning security imperatives with legal and ethical norms.
- Topic:
- Sovereignty, Armed Conflict, Discourse, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Egypt
6. ICC Investigation of Biden Administration Officials for Aiding Israeli War Crimes with Sarah Leah Whitson
- Author:
- Sarah Whitson and Sahar Aziz
- Publication Date:
- 05-2025
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
- Abstract:
- In January of 2025, the human rights organization, Democracy in the Arab World Now (DAWN) (https://dawnmena.org/) , made a formal request with the International Criminal Court (ICC) to investigate former U.S. officials President Joe Biden, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin for their accessorial roles in aiding and abetting, as well as intentionally contributing to, Israeli war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza. With the support of ICC-registered lawyers and other war crimes experts, the submission details a pattern of deliberate and purposeful decisions by these officials to provide military, political, and public support to facilitate Israeli crimes in Gaza; this support included at least $17.9 billion of weapons transfers, intelligence sharing, targeting assistance, diplomatic protection, and official endorsement of Israeli crimes, despite knowledge of how such support had and would substantially enable grave abuses. Join host Sahar Aziz (https://saharazizlaw.com/) in conversation with Sarah Leah Whitson (https://dawnmena.org/experts/sarah-le...) , executive director of DAWN, about the key facts and law supporting the request for the International Criminal Court to investigate Biden officials for aiding and abetting Israeli War Crimes in Gaza.
- Topic:
- International Law, War Crimes, International Criminal Court (ICC), and Joe Biden
- Political Geography:
- Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America
7. Israel, Hamas, and the Burdens of History
- Author:
- Michael J. Reimer
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- The violence of the Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023, and Israel’s subsequent retaliatory war on Gaza have reignited historical collective traumas and existential fears among Jewish-Israelis, the Jewish Diaspora, and Palestinians
- Topic:
- Diaspora, Trauma, Hamas, Palestinians, October 7, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Gaza
8. Trump’s Alternate Reality in the Middle East
- Author:
- Hussein Ibish
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- With his recent foray into drastic measures to resolve the Israel-Palestine continuum, could there be a method to the madness of King Trump?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Donald Trump, Real Estate, and Israeli–Palestinian Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America
9. Trump’s Return: What It Could Mean for Palestine and the Region
- Author:
- Ramzy Baroud
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- Donald Trump’s return to the White House in the context of the Gaza war and other regional conflicts raises questions regarding his approach to the Israel-Palestine conflict
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Donald Trump, Armed Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America
10. The Consequences and Prospects of Israel’s Ban of UNRWA
- Author:
- Kjersti G. Berg, Søren Arnberg, and Lex Takkenberg
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- As the UN agency’s operations continue to be obstructed, its outright ban will continue the perpetuation of severe human suffering and have multidimensional ramifications, from illegality on the international level to political considerations regarding the tenuous ceasefire
- Topic:
- Refugees, Humanitarian Crisis, 2023 Gaza War, and United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA)
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
11. Palestinian Women: Between War Resilience and Their Role in Post-Conflict Reconstruction in Gaza.
- Author:
- Mirvat al-Zaqzouq and Diab Zayed
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- Women constitute 49% of the total population, according to the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS) reports, but their contribution to public life remains far below their numbers in society. According to the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS) reports, women in the labor market will account for 19% in 2023. In decision-making centers, women’s participation remains low and one of the lowest rates in the region, despite being one of the most important indicators of gender equality, as data for 2021 showed that the percentage of women members of the Central Council constitutes about 23%, 19% of the members of the National Council, and 12% of the members of the Council of Ministers. There is also one-woman governor out of 15 governors, and 1% of the heads of local authorities in Palestine are women. As for the management of the councils of chambers of commerce, industry and agriculture, only 1% are women, about 19% of judges are women, and 18% of prosecutors are women. These figures reflect a marked exclusion of women from public life, which negatively affects their status, deepens gender inequality gaps, and at the same time prevents society from benefiting from women’s abilities and contribution to public life. This will inevitably affect the development of society and reinforce internal conflicts, especially gender conflicts. The exclusion of women in Palestine is a social tendency to exclude them from important public positions in the economy and politics, preventing them from expressing their opinions and limiting their public visibility. Despite the vital role that women play in crises, such as their steadfastness during the recent war on the Gaza Strip, in which various types of munitions were used including internationally banned ones, and came after years of siege imposed on Palestinian men and women, which deepened their suffering, but the general trend was to exclude women.
- Topic:
- Reconstruction, Women, Post-Conflict, Palestinians, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, and Gaza
12. Perceptions on Enhancing Youth Access to Decision-Making Positions in the Palestinian
- Author:
- Jamal al-Fadi and Raed al-Dab'i
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- This policy paper addresses the reality of Palestinian youth participation and access to decision-making centers in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, amidst the political, economic, and social challenges faced by Palestinian youth due to Israeli occupation, internal division, and the Gaza blockade. Youth face significant difficulties in gaining opportunities for active participation in decision-making processes. The paper emphasizes the importance of empowering youth to access decision-making centers as a step toward achieving development and stability in Palestinian society. It highlights the need to enhance educational and training opportunities, improve economic conditions, and enable youth to have a real impact on public policies. Additionally, the paper offers alternatives, solutions, and practical recommendations, such as promoting political dialogue between the West Bank and Gaza, providing platforms for political participation, and developing economic and educational opportunities, in order to achieve genuine empowerment for Palestinian youth in various fields.
- Topic:
- Occupation, Youth, Economic Development, Decision-Making, Political Participation, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, and West Bank
13. Towards Practical Strategies to Overcome the Identity and Thinking Crisis Among Palestinian Youth after October 7
- Author:
- Amal Qeshta and Amjad Abu Al-Ezz
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper addresses the shifts in the attitudes of Palestinian youth after the events of October 7, highlighting the impact of the Israeli aggression on the West Bank and Gaza Strip, and its implications on the culture and political and social participation of Palestinian youth. It also reviews the psychological and social challenges they face, with a focus on the phenomenon of “chaotic thinking” that affected national identity and future orientations, leading young people to different choices between frustration and involvement in armed resistance.
- Topic:
- Youth, Identity, October 7, 2023 Gaza War, and Armed Resistance
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, and West Bank
14. Assessing the Efforts of International Community to Protect Human Rights in Palestine: Interventions and Challenges
- Author:
- Ilham Shamally and Yehya Qaoud
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper examines international interventions aimed at protecting Palestinian human rights amid the ongoing conflict in Gaza and escalating tensions in the West Bank. It highlights international humanitarian law as the key legal framework designed to protect civilians during armed conflicts. The paper identifies significant challenges hindering these efforts, notably the overlap between international politics and law, and global polarization, which obstructed decisive measures to safeguard Palestinians—especially given the frequent use of veto power by countries such as the United States at the UN Security Council, allowing Israel to continue its operations without substantial restraint. The study focuses on international efforts, including UN General Assembly resolutions calling for ceasefires, though these remained non-binding due to weak enforcement mechanisms. Additionally, it discusses significant legal initiatives, including South Africa’s lawsuit against Israel at the International Court of Justice, and the International Criminal Court’s issuance of arrest warrants against Israeli leaders for war crimes. The paper further outlines humanitarian and medical interventions by organizations like UNRWA, the International Red Cross, and the World Health Organization, all of which faced substantial obstacles, particularly Israeli restrictions on humanitarian aid access—a tactic identified by the paper as part of a deliberate starvation policy. It emphasizes the necessity of a unified Palestinian political system capable of enhancing diplomatic efforts and confronting these challenges effectively. Finally, the paper calls for re-evaluating current international mechanisms and more stringent enforcement of international law. It underscores the importance of unified Palestinian efforts to overcome international political polarization, thus ensuring more effective protection of Palestinian civilians in the face of ongoing, severe human rights violations.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Humanitarian Aid, International Community, UN Security Council, International Humanitarian Law (IHL), and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, and West Bank
15. Toward a More Tolerant Society: Mechanisms Against Hate Speech and Intolerance – Gaza as a Model in the Context of War
- Author:
- Islam Moussa Atallah and Khitam Abu Odeh
- Publication Date:
- 05-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- In times of wars and disasters, the effects of destruction are not limited to material and human losses, but extend to the moral and social structure of society, generating new forms of tensions, intensifying latent negative tendencies, and inciting divisions that may remain for decades after the ceasefire. Hate speech and intolerance are among the most prominent threats to the Palestinian social fabric in times of crisis, and their presence has escalated sharply during the ongoing Israeli war on the Gaza Strip. In the face of widespread destruction, legal vacuum, mass displacement, insecurity, exclusion, and symbolic and moral violence, hate speech feeds on feelings of anger and despair, and finds fertile ground in a socially and politically exhausted environment. The danger of such rhetoric stems from the fact that it not only expresses temporary tension, but also reproduces structural divisions and deepens societal fissures along familial, regional, or political lines. In the Palestinian context, hate speech cannot be separated from the general structure of the long conflict, whether with the occupation or internally between the components of society. Palestinians themselves, despite their collective suffering, have for years been facing increasing challenges related to weak social cohesion, the division of political authority, and the erosion of trust between citizens and their institutions. As the war on Gaza intensified and the humanitarian tragedy intensified, discourses of accusation, betrayal, and exclusion emerged, whether on the basis of political affiliation, family origins, geography (between those displaced from the north and those settled in the south), or even economic and social status, revealing an underlying crisis in the cultural and social structure that goes beyond the impact of the war itself.
- Topic:
- Hate Speech, Intolerance, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, and Gaza
16. The Sources of Southeast Asian Discontent Over Gaza
- Author:
- Meghan Murphy
- Publication Date:
- 05-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Asia Society
- Abstract:
- On January 19, 2025, countries around the world, including the member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), breathed a sigh of relief when a tentative ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas was announced by mediators—the United States, Egypt, and Qatar—hoping it would mean an end to the bloodshed. The most recent iteration of the nearly seven-decades-long conflict began on October 7, 2023, when Hamas launched an attack that killed 1,195 Israelis, and it has since resulted in more than 60,000 Palestinian casualties and the destruction of much of the Gaza Strip by the Israeli Defense Forces. Central to the conversation around the war has been the role of Washington, which, as Israel’s strongest ally, has provided the country with more than $17.9 billion in security assistance since October 2023. Then-president-elect Donald Trump claimed credit for the deal, writing on Truth Social that it occurred as a result of his peace-seeking administration winning the November 2024 presidential election. However, the ceasefire agreement collapsed after his inauguration; the situation in Palestine has only worsened during a two-month-long Israeli blockade on humanitarian aid to Gaza. As President Trump embarked on a trip to the Gulf States in mid-May, it was not just Middle Eastern states that were closely watching the administration’s policy on Gaza, but also the countries of Southeast Asia, where many policymakers remain concerned with what will happen next. Several states—especially Muslim-majority Malaysia and Indonesia—have maintained a deep frustration with what they perceive as American-approved Israeli war tactics and, as of early February, with the Trump administration’s plan to “take over Gaza.” In its first months in office, the Trump foreign policy team has tried to indicate that it is committed to continuing strong diplomatic efforts in the Indo-Pacific despite uncertainty on trade and security policies. In Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s first week in office, he spoke with his counterparts in three Southeast Asian countries—the Philippines, Indonesia, and Vietnam—where he raised concerns regarding China’s behavior in the South China Sea. However, if the Trump administration is committed to countering China in the region through strengthening diplomatic relations and military cooperation with Southeast Asian nations, it will have to address the concerns of those countries that are deeply angered by the ongoing war in Gaza. To better understand why these countries have responded as they have, it is crucial to understand the decades-long history connecting Palestine to Southeast Asia.
- Topic:
- Genocide, Treaties and Agreements, Public Opinion, Ceasefire, and ASEAN
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Southeast Asia
17. Smoke and Mirrors: Israel Stronger or Weaker in 2025? Implications for Israel and its Neighbours
- Author:
- Osnat Lubrani
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
- Abstract:
- Writing this 2025 trend report on a topic I am knowledgeable about has been a Sisyphean task. Every day I woke up to realize the ‘trend’ I confidently foresaw yesterday is questioned by a new development. I submit that by the time I complete this report, it will become outdated the next day. Since its colossal security/defense failure on 7 October 2023, Israel has been able to restore its reputation as a formidable military power with substantial military support from the USA and others, notably its neighbors (Bradley A, 2024). Gaza is destroyed and Hamas is still in charge, but Israel can point to its elimination of Hamas and Hezbollah leadership, the decimation of their military capabilities, and effective striking of Iran and the Houthis as impressive wins. Yet Israel at the start of 2025 is weaker as a state and as a society. The reasons are manifold. Some trace back to before the 7th of October, while others followed from it. All of the issues—from extreme political and social divisions to a plummeting international standing (Wintour, P. 2024) to grave economic losses (Ziady, H. 2024)—have worsened since. Israel’s choices and actions in 2025, both domestically and internationally, will not only affect its long-term security and stability, but also those of its neighbors and the broader Middle East. The polarized geopolitical landscape already is facing disruptions at the start of the year; the extent of their severity will depend on how the USA foreign policy will unfold under the new administration. What is clear is that in 2025, the United States has become even more significant in determining Israel’s path and the broader region’s trajectory. President Trump’s initial statements of intent to end all wars, with focus on the Middle East and Ukraine, and to secure a lucrative deal for Israel with Saudi Arabia hint at possible scenarios. However, as he adds outlandish items to his ‘to do’ list—even some which diametrically contradict his earlier wishes—one can logically assume that not all of his plans will come to fruition. Given Trump’s mercurial nature, many “known unknowns,” as Donald Rumsfeld once put it, remain.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Civilians, Atrocities, Ceasefire, Armed Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
18. European Shift: The Path Toward Palestinian State Recognition
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 08-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Western and European announcements regarding intentions to recognize a Palestinian state in September 2025 have accelerated, coinciding with the upcoming UN General Assembly meeting. These developments emerge amid intensifying criticism of Israeli positions in both Western media and social platforms, creating mounting domestic pressure on European governments to adopt clearer stances.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Palestinians, UN General Assembly, and Recognition
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
19. Aftershocks from Gaza: From Local to Global Consequences (Part 1)
- Author:
- Institute for the Study of Diplomacy Working Group
- Publication Date:
- 09-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
- Abstract:
- The grotesque attacks by Hamas on October 7, 2023, and Israel’s subsequent military campaign in Gaza have upended long-standing assumptions about regional order. The Middle East’s previous reliance on a US-led security framework has given way to a fragmented, multi-aligned landscape in which middle powers pursue their interests, while the Palestinian issue—long marginalized—has returned to the center of regional and global diplomacy. Israel has secured tactical military gains but at the cost of increasing diplomatic isolation, while conditions in Gaza have fueled global demands for a sustainable political solution. Iran, Hezbollah, and Syria face profound setbacks, while Turkey and the Arab Gulf states seek to expand influence without the means to dominate. China and Russia remain cautious players, unwilling or unable to shape the conflict’s outcome. For the United States, the Gaza war poses a strategic dilemma. Despite efforts to broker ceasefires and secure hostages, Washington has been unable—or unwilling—to exert decisive leverage on Israel. The Biden and Trump administrations alike have struggled to articulate a coherent, sustainable strategy that balances US interests in security, energy, stability, and credibility. The ISD Gaza Report is organized in two parts: Part I: A ground assessment of the regional shifts since October 7, with particular focus on Israel, Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as the reemergence of Palestine as the central unresolved question in Middle East politics, and the role of regional states. Part II: A deeper analysis of Iran’s position and prospects, scenarios for regional order, and US policy options, culminating in concrete recommendations for advancing stability while protecting US strategic interests. Participants underscored that any durable path forward begins and ends with Palestine and the Palestinians. US policymakers must adapt to a regional order defined not by hegemonic control but by contested pluralism and assertive middle powers. Strategic clarity, consistent diplomacy, and credible leverage are essential if Washington hopes to pursue its interests amid the aftershocks from Gaza—and not merely react to them.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Hamas, Palestinians, October 7, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America
20. The Hamas-Israel War: An Early Assessment
- Author:
- Robert Satloff
- Publication Date:
- 12-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Despite rhetoric to the contrary, neither side can claim a decisive win, and an uneasy status quo could persist as long as Trump, the ceasefire guarantors, and Israeli leaders keep a lid on their frustrations. Three months after Israel and Hamas agreed to a U.S.-brokered ceasefire, the strategic outcome of the war remains uncertain. Both sides can point to meaningful achievements, but neither can claim decisive victory. Whereas Israel gained the release of its remaining hostages and a Gaza buffer zone to prevent future attacks, Hamas still controls nearly half the territory while its longtime patrons, Qatar and Turkey, have attained unprecedented standing in Washington. Uncertainty now looms as President Trump prepares to announce the transition to “phase two” of the ceasefire, which will see a raft of hopeful initiatives crash into the reality of a Gaza divided between Israeli and Hamas zones of control, without any agreed path toward disarming the terrorist group—the necessary precondition for any real progress toward full implementation of the ceasefire. In this timely and provocative Policy Note, Washington Institute Executive Director Robert Satloff explains that several factors could shake up the status quo in Gaza. These include President Trump’s impatience for results, discontent from the Qatari and Turkish ceasefire guarantors, and Israeli unease at its enemy’s stubborn survival. While outlining the potential for a total breakdown of the ceasefire and return to full-scale hostilities, Satloff also argues that Jerusalem has a powerful interest in preventing a situation in which the White House is forced to choose between Israel and the ceasefire’s guarantors—and offers ways to avoid that deeply problematic scenario.
- Topic:
- Hamas, Ceasefire, Armed Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
21. Saudi Public Opinion in a Changing Middle East: Great Powers, the Gaza War, Pathways for the Kingdom
- Author:
- Catherine Cleveland
- Publication Date:
- 08-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- China and Russia get higher marks than the United States, and Israel normalization is on hold—but respondents view Hamas negatively, want Arab involvement in the peace process, and increasingly support moderate interpretations of Islam. Recent polling in Saudi Arabia offers reasons for concern as well as optimism regarding U.S. interests. On the downside, Saudi respondents are more likely to prioritize good relations with China or Russia as opposed to America, despite a history of U.S.-Saudi strategic ties. Likewise, enthusiasm for Israel-Saudi normalization has fallen from already-low levels amid the Gaza war, although support is slightly higher for business links. More encouragingly, respondents express negative views about Hamas, growing support for an Arab role in Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking, and increasing sympathy for moderate interpretations of Islam, mirroring the trajectory of Riyadh’s official rhetoric. In this Policy Note, polling expert Catherine Cleveland offers thought-provoking analysis of surveys taken shortly before Israel’s twelve-day war with Iran. U.S. policymakers can chart a productive course, she explains, by first taking an honest look at Saudi public skepticism of bilateral ties and then promoting initiatives more likely to earn support.
- Topic:
- Public Opinion, Normalization, Hamas, Regional Politics, and Great Powers
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Palestine, Gaza, Saudi Arabia, and United States of America
22. Assessing the Gaza Death Toll After Eighteen Months of War
- Author:
- Gabriel Epstein
- Publication Date:
- 05-2025
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Health officials have compiled a largely comprehensive list, but questions remain about the Gaza ministry’s opaque revision process and vetting of family reports—along with unknown deaths and missing persons. In May 2025, the Hamas-run Gaza Ministry of Health released its ninth list of the dead since the war began in October 2023. The document—spotlighting the massive scale of the human tragedy unleashed by Hamas’s massacre—reflects a significant effort by Gaza health officials to record and identify all those killed. Yet methodological questions persist about the ministry’s opaque revision process and vetting of reports from family members. Moreover, the tally itself is far from complete, exemplified by unknowns about unreported deaths and missing persons that could eventually reshape media narratives about the war’s cost. And the ministry’s findings remain irreconcilable with the competing, entirely false figures published by the Hamas-run Government Media Office. In this Policy Note, which follows up on a related study from January 2024, Gabriel Epstein meticulously analyzes Gaza fatality reporting, including through first-time discussions of the Health Ministry’s use of placeholder identification numbers and questionable revision practices. Experts and journalists will also find guidelines for responsibly navigating often divergent fatality reports emerging from Gaza, Israel, and international organizations.
- Topic:
- Armed Conflict, 2023 Gaza War, and Death Toll
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
23. Funding in the Shadow of Conflict: AIPAC’s Financial Influence on US Congress Post-2023 Israel-Hamas War
- Author:
- Ömer Naim Küçük
- Publication Date:
- 06-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Turkish Journal of Middle Eastern Studies
- Institution:
- Sakarya University (SAU)
- Abstract:
- The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) has been a key player in mobilizing support for Israel’s foreign policy within the US Congress, especially during regional conflicts. While studies have examined the influence of the pro-Israeli lobbies’ donations on US policymakers, the strategic allocation of these funds remains less explored. This study addresses that gap by analyzing factors that influenced variations in AIPAC donations to US Congress members following the 2023 Israel-Hamas war. The findings reveal two main determinants: Congress members' sponsorship of pro-Israel bills and the electoral competition in their constituencies. Those actively supporting pro-Israel legislation receive more financial contributions, indicating a link between legislative support and financial incentives. Additionally, members facing strong electoral competition attract more donations, suggesting AIPAC’s targeted investment in politically secure candidates. This research highlights how the Israeli lobby strategically uses financial contributions to shape US foreign policy, particularly in the context of Israel's military engagements.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Elections, Lobbying, Congress, Foreign Influence, 2023 Gaza War, and AIPAC
- Political Geography:
- Israel, Palestine, Gaza, North America, and United States of America
24. Debating American Primacy in the Middle East
- Author:
- Marc Lynch, Richard K. Hermann, Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, Dana El Kurd, and Elham Fakhro
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
- Abstract:
- In September 2024, POMEPS and the Mershon Center for International Studies at the Ohio State University convened a workshop with regional experts and international relations theorists to debate the nature of American primacy in the Middle East. The papers in this collection range widely over theoretical approaches and empirical examples to bring out the assumptions and implications of different perspectives. The discussions were shaped by the shadow of Israel’s war on Gaza, in all of its moral and strategic dimensions, with sharp disagreements over the extent to which this represented a fundamental break with or continuity with prior trajectories. We are delighted to present POMEPS Studies 54: Debating American Primacy in the Middle East and hope that it helps to reframe and sharpen the critical ongoing debates about US foreign policy, global order, and the Middle East.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Cold War, Development, Hegemony, Authoritarianism, Liberalism, Engagement, Unipolarity, Multipolarity, International Order, Russia-Ukraine War, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, United States of America, and Gulf Nations
25. Regional Order Making after October 7
- Author:
- Raffaella A. Del Sarto, Marc Lynch, Simon Mabon, Waleed Hazbun, and Curtis R. Ryan
- Publication Date:
- 07-2025
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
- Abstract:
- In December 2024, we convened a workshop at the Robert Schuman Center of the European University Institute in partnership with POMEPS and SEPAD to discuss regional changes and their meaning for our book. How did the October 7 attacks, the Gaza war, and Israel’s rapidly expanding military actions from Lebanon to Iran change the region? Were those changes in line with the book’s theoretical predictions? And what would our book have to say to the new aspirants hoping to remake regional order?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Non State Actors, Alliance, Violence, Armed Conflict, Regional Politics, October 7, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, Lebanon, and United States of America
26. Virtual Briefing Series | An Israeli-Palestinian Conversation on Gaza's Uncertain Endgame
- Author:
- Zeina AlShaib, Ibrahim Dalalsha, and Natan Sachs
- Publication Date:
- 10-2025
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- This on-the-record virtual briefing on Tuesday, October 21, at 11:00 AM EDT, discussed Gaza’s future with a pair of leading Israeli and Palestinian analysts. The conversation examined the difficult questions surrounding Israeli and Palestinian politics, regional strategy, and the search for a sustainable endgame that both sides can accept. This briefing featured Natan Sachs, Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute (MEI), as well as Ibrahim Dalalsha, Founder and Director of the Horizon Center for Political Studies and Media Outreach. Dalalsha served for two decades as Senior Political Advisor at the US Consulate General in Jerusalem, where he advised US officials on the peace process, Palestinian politics, and state-building efforts. Our experts explored the deep political, psychological, and strategic challenges now confronting both Israelis and Palestinians: What does “victory” mean to the Israeli public today, and how has that definition evolved? What is the future of Hamas? Who could plausibly govern Gaza after the war — and with what legitimacy? How will regional actors and the international community shape (or complicate) the post-war phase? How can all parties build up the trust that any future arrangement will depend on?
- Topic:
- State Building, Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, 2023 Gaza War, and Peace Process
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
27. Gaza’s Cease-Fire Shattered: What Role Can the Arab World Play?
- Author:
- Brian Katulis, Nadav Eyal, Ibrahim Dalalsha, and Yasmine Farouk
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- Israel and Hamas were unable to reach an agreement to extend their fragile truce, collapsing a two-month-old cease-fire and throwing the Gaza Strip back into violence. Efforts to revive the cease-fire by Arab powers have so far proven fruitless. After 18 months of regional turmoil, what comes next for Gaza and the broader Middle East? Join the Middle East Institute for a discussion with experts on the breakdown of the cease-fire; the Israeli government’s potential end-goals, calculations, and domestic pressures; US priorities in the region; the threats the renewed war in Gaza and escalations in the West Bank pose to the internal situations of some long-time Arab partners of the United States; as well as Arab countries' influence and ability to change dynamics on the ground.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Ceasefire, Armed Conflict, Regional Politics, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Arab Countries
28. Intersectionality and Atrocity Crimes: Reflecting on the Experiences of Youth in Atrocity Situations
- Author:
- Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Publication Date:
- 07-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Abstract:
- Mass atrocity crimes are often perpetrated against populations based on shared identity characteristics, such as ethnicity, religion, race or language. In many contexts, individuals who belong to more than one marginalized group face heightened and compounded risks. These risks are shaped by the unique social and political dynamics of a given context, where assumptions about power and identity intersect. There is growing recognition that failing to address complex and overlapping identities can obscure or deny the human rights inherent to all. Effective atrocity prevention must reflect the diversity of populations around the world and recognize how intersecting identities contribute to vulnerability and risk. Applying an intersectional lens is essential to identifying early warning signs, understanding the drivers of identity-based violence and ensuring no one is overlooked. This new policy brief focuses on the specific risks faced by youth in atrocity situations, particularly when multiple forms of identity compound their vulnerability. This brief underscores the urgent need to meaningfully center youth perspectives, in all their diversity, within national, regional and multilateral atrocity prevention strategies and decision-making processes. The brief draws on case studies from the Gaza Strip, El Salvador, Sudan and the Uyghur community in and beyond China. These examples are informed by testimony and insights shared by youth activists during an event hosted by the Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect and the European Union on 18 April 2024. Participants included young advocates for marginalized ethnic groups, people with disabilities and LGBTQIA+ youth, who shared their lived experiences and strategies for more inclusive, effective prevention
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Youth, Atrocities, Uyghurs, Identity, and Activism
- Political Geography:
- China, Sudan, Gaza, and El Salvador
29. The Berlin Pulse 2025/2026 (full issue)
- Author:
- Şener Aktürk, Solomiia Bobrovska, Christian von Hirschhausen, Sumantra Maitra, and Katarina Barley
- Publication Date:
- 11-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Körber-Stiftung
- Abstract:
- In this ninth edition, we explore the end of long-held certainties in the German public’s attitude towards foreign policy. Thanks to our editorial team – Julia Ganter, Leona Harting and Jonathan Lehrer – we learn that its views are at odds with two important pillars of Germanyʼs foreign policy: relations with the United States and responsibility for Israel’s security. With President Donald Trump in his second term, only 27 per cent of German respondents view relations with Washington positively, while the country’s leaders try to deal with an unpopular, less predictable but vital ally. And despite the centrality of relations with Israel to post war-German identity, feelings of responsibility towards Israel have declined. After the Gaza war triggered by Hamas’s 7 October 2023 terrorist attacks, only 35 per cent say that Germany holds a special responsibility toward Israel. The government now faces the challenge of upholding the country’s commitment to Israel’s security while not losing sight of public opinion. Amid these complex international partnerships and their domestic repercussions, many Germans seek greater autonomy and action. Nearly half of respondents (48 percent) support more engagement in global crises, 72 per cent back plans to almost double defence spending within a decade, and 59 per cent favour providing military aid to Ukraine. These attitudes stand for the Zeitenwende, which we have examined in recent editions of The Berlin Pulse. But can Germany strengthen its defence capabilities while maintaining its leading role in civilian crisis management at the same time? In this edition, authors like Rime Allaf, Ana Revenco and Eckart von Hirschhausen urge continued German leadership in environmental protection, support of democracy, Ukraine’s reconstruction and combating disinformation. With the number of conflicts and crises rising dependable rules can be an anchor. This is why UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk, Vice President of the European Parliament Katarina Barley, and United Arab Emirates Policy Center President Ebtesam Al-Ketbi urge Germany and Europe to remain committed to defending human rights and to upholding international law. Looking back on the history of the Federal Republic, the gap between public opinion and official policy is nothing new. But in the current geopolitical context, the question how Germany’s government will navigate the relationship between foreign policy principles and a changing public mood arises with renewed urgency. This edition of The Berlin Pulse seeks to stimulate reflection and debate on this question.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, National Security, Public Opinion, Geopolitics, Donald Trump, Russia-Ukraine War, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, Germany, Syria, and United States of America
30. How to Keep Resolution 2803 From Becoming a U.S.–Run Occupation
- Author:
- Carol Daniel-Kasbari
- Publication Date:
- 12-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
- Abstract:
- President Trump’s peace plan for Gaza — adopted by the U.N. Security Council as Resolution 2803 — risks becoming yet another U.S.–run occupation. Coming on the heels of U.N. findings that Israel has committed genocide in Gaza, the plan would place Washington at the center of a post-genocide mission. This brief lays out how the U.S. can avoid a quagmire by aligning implementation with genocide-prevention obligations, Palestinian self-determination, and a credible exit strategy. Resolution 2803 creates a U.S.–led Board of Peace as a transitional administration for Gaza, with a new international Stabilization Force, the ISF, under its umbrella, leaving Palestinian self-rule to a vague later “pathway.” This “interim” regime risks becoming “Oslo with helmets”: heavy on external control and light on rights. Without Palestinian co-ownership and a political horizon, such an arrangement is unlikely to succeed. It is more likely to fuel support for armed groups and to drag the U.S. into an indefinite security commitment it says it does not want. To avoid that outcome — and the resulting political blowback — this brief recommends that the U.S. use the tools it controls to reshape Resolution 2803 around three pillars: Post-genocide safeguards. Embed genocide-prevention and accountability into the mission’s mandate by requiring cooperation with the U.N. Commission of Inquiry and relevant international courts and by aligning any security assistance and arms transfers with prevention obligations. The U.S. cannot credibly send troops to protect Palestinians while continuing to arm the same campaign that devastated Gaza. Palestinian co-ownership. Allocate half of the Board of Peace’s votes to Palestinian representatives from national institutions and to Gaza-based municipal and civil society actors, and recognize the Palestinian executive committee as the core body for day-to-day governance. Any extension of the board and ISF beyond 2027 should require both a new Security Council vote and clear Palestinian consent. A rights-anchored transition and exit. Pair these institutional changes with a transition roadmap that goes beyond security indicators, including lifting movement and access restrictions, reopening crossings, rebuilding health and education systems, restoring due process, and creating civilian-protection mechanisms. Link this roadmap to halting settlement expansion and settler violence so Gaza’s transition is embedded in a broader shift away from permanent occupation. If President Trump ties his plan to enforceable benchmarks along these lines — and checks Israeli obstructionism rather than indulging it — the U.S. can help stabilize Gaza and secure a viable exit instead of inheriting an endless mission.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Genocide, United Nations, Occupation, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America
31. Militarising Artificial Intelligence: A Feminist Analysis of Algorithmic Warfare
- Author:
- Center for Feminist Foreign Policy (CFFP)
- Publication Date:
- 06-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Centre for Feminist Foreign Policy
- Abstract:
- According to proponents of military artificial intelligence (AI), its promise is one of precision, accuracy, and pace. Often celebrated for its unprecedented potential to “revolutionise the battlefield” (U.S. Department of Defense, 2020), military AI is credited with increasing situational awareness, enhancing decision-making capabilities, and enabling ‘machine-speed’ threat responses in war (UK Ministry of Defence, 2022). Importantly, certain applications of military AI have even been depicted as tools capable of reducing civilian casualties in conflict settings (Utrecht University, 2025). Advocates have argued that their ‘objectivity’ allows for more rational, less emotional decision-making, and stricter adherence to international humanitarian law. However, mounting evidence from contemporary conflicts involving AI-driven systems suggests that such theories are increasingly detached from reality. Rather than mitigating civilian harm, the deployment of artificial intelligence has been correlated with increased casualties and insecure conditions for civilian populations (particularly when used in combination with weapons that can be indiscriminate in impact such as unguided munitions). As the use of artificial intelligence in war continues to outpace its regulation, profound ethical, legal, and humanitarian concerns remain unaddressed. Feminist and human-centred solutions are urgently needed to forge pathways towards more inclusive, accountable, and responsible governance frameworks, and to counter the risks associated with new technologies employed in violent conflict.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Feminism, Artificial Intelligence, 2023 Gaza War, and Warfare
- Political Geography:
- Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Global Focus
32. Inside Hamas: How It Thinks, Fights, and Governs
- Author:
- Magnus Ranstorp
- Publication Date:
- 10-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- CTC Sentinel
- Institution:
- The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
- Abstract:
- Hamas has evolved from a Muslim Brotherhood-rooted social-religious movement into a hybrid actor that governs, polices society, and wages organized violence. The October 7, 2023, terrorist attack marked a watershed for Israel and the world. Against that backdrop, this article maps how Hamas thinks, operates, fights, and governs—from its origins to the present—showing how a religious structure and social-welfare dawa network hardened into an organized war machine. Based on first-hand interviews with senior figures, including its founder Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, it details the ideology, organizational architecture, and decision-making that drive both the dawa apparatus and the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades. The analysis tracks pivotal inflection points—from the First Intifada and Marj al-Zuhr deportations through Gaza’s 2007 takeover, successive wars, and Iranian/Hezbollah backing—to October 7. It concludes by assessing Hamas’ degraded yet durable capabilities, internal factional dynamics, and implications for Gaza’s ‘day after.’
- Topic:
- Ideology, Hamas, October 7, and Armed Resistance
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
33. Trump’s Plan: The Promises and Pitfalls of Peace in Gaza
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 10-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Trump’s peace initiative has received approval from the two main parties in the Gaza war—Hamas and Israel—along with broad Arab, Islamic and international support that strengthens its chances of success. However, a number of pitfalls contained within it could reignite the war in the Strip.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Hamas, Mediation, Armed Conflict, 2023 Gaza War, and Peacemaking
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America
34. Precarious Peace: The Complexities and Risks of the Gaza Plan
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 11-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Intense Israeli strikes after the ceasefire caused heavy casualties and highlighted ongoing violations of Trump’s Gaza plan. Despite US mediation, Israel restricted aid, exceeded withdrawal limits, and disputed security terms, leaving the truce fragile and Gaza’s civilians at risk.
- Topic:
- Security, Humanitarian Aid, Civilians, Ceasefire, Mediation, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
35. Netanyahu and the End of the Jewish State
- Author:
- Christopher Datta
- Publication Date:
- 05-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- American Diplomacy
- Institution:
- American Diplomacy
- Abstract:
- I support Israel’s right to exist and its right to defend itself. Hamas is a terrorist organization and the attack by Hamas on Israel on October 7, 2023, was an outrage and a war crime. Hezbollah in Lebanon is also a terrorist organization, and Iran is a rogue state. However, the atrocities committed by Israel’s enemies cannot be allowed to obscure the fact that Binyamin Netanyahu and his policies have condemned Israel to eventual collapse. Sadly, Israel as a Jewish state is now locked into a trajectory that it cannot survive in the long run. This has major implications for the future of American foreign policy in the region. Primarily, this is because of the end of the two-state solution. Netanyahu has spent his entire long career working to annex the West Bank, and his settlement policies have succeeded to all intents and purposes in doing just that. It only remains for Netanyahu to one day make annexation official. According to Peace Now, the Israeli movement advocating for peace, as of 2024 there are 141 settlements in the West Bank (settlements in the West Bank were officially established by the government, East Jerusalem excluded) and 224 outposts (outposts are settlements that were established since the 1990’s without government approval and are considered illegal according to Israeli law). According to the same source, there are almost 504,000 Jews living in those settlements and outposts, with just under 3 million Palestinians in the West Bank, Israeli settlers consider the West Bank Jewish land, their land. They are determined to keep it and they are well armed. Any attempt to remove them will spark a civil war within Israel. A conversation I had with a group of these settlers brought home to me the depth of their feelings. They said the solution to what to do with the Palestinians in Israel was to push them all into Jordan, or else kill them. They then praised Baruch Goldstein, the man who in 1994 attacked the Ibrahimi Mosque in Hebron and killed 29 people, including children, wounded 125 others, and was himself killed. The settlers said he was a hero, and they wanted to build a shrine to him.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Demographics, Hezbollah, Settlements, Hamas, and Benjamin Netanyahu
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and West Bank
36. Aftershocks from Gaza: From Local to Global Consequences (Part 1)
- Author:
- Institute for the Study of Diplomacy Working Group
- Publication Date:
- 12-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
- Abstract:
- The grotesque attacks by Hamas on October 7, 2023, and Israel’s subsequent military campaign in Gaza have upended long-standing assumptions about regional order. The Middle East’s previous reliance on a US-led security framework has given way to a fragmented, multi-aligned landscape in which middle powers pursue their interests, while the Palestinian issue—long marginalized—has returned to the center of regional and global diplomacy. Israel has secured tactical military gains but at the cost of increasing diplomatic isolation, while conditions in Gaza have fueled global demands for a sustainable political solution. Iran, Hezbollah, and Syria face profound setbacks, while Turkey and the Arab Gulf states seek to expand influence without the means to dominate. China and Russia remain cautious players, unwilling or unable to shape the conflict’s outcome. For the United States, the Gaza war poses a strategic dilemma. Despite efforts to broker ceasefires and secure hostages, Washington has been unable—or unwilling—to exert decisive leverage on Israel. The Biden and Trump administrations alike have struggled to articulate a coherent, sustainable strategy that balances US interests in security, energy, stability, and credibility. The ISD Gaza Report is organized in two parts: Part I: A ground assessment of the regional shifts since October 7, with particular focus on Israel, Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as the reemergence of Palestine as the central unresolved question in Middle East politics, and the role of regional states. Part II: A deeper analysis of Iran’s position and prospects, scenarios for regional order, and US policy options, culminating in concrete recommendations for advancing stability while protecting US strategic interests. Participants underscored that any durable path forward begins and ends with Palestine and the Palestinians. US policymakers must adapt to a regional order defined not by hegemonic control but by contested pluralism and assertive middle powers. Strategic clarity, consistent diplomacy, and credible leverage are essential if Washington hopes to pursue its interests amid the aftershocks from Gaza—and not merely react to them.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Hezbollah, Strategic Interests, Palestinians, Regional Politics, 2023 Gaza War, and Regional Stability
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America
37. Domestic Disagreements Limit Netanyahu’s Options with Washington
- Author:
- David Makovsky
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As the Hamas-Israel war enters a new phase, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is finding it increasingly difficult to balance relationships inside his government and with the White House. On the military front, Israel has taken most of northern Gaza, though an estimated 5,000-6,000 Hamas fighters remain active in various tunnel networks. Major combat operations have largely shifted to central and southern Gaza, while the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have released most of the 360,000 reservists mobilized at the beginning of the war and withdrawn some forces for retraining. Yet the situation is murkier on the diplomatic and political fronts. Earlier today, Netanyahu and President Biden spoke with each other for the first time in almost four weeks, and the prime minister is fundamentally at odds with Benny Gantz’s centrist National Unity party. When Gantz joined the government shortly after the October 7 attacks, he helped dilute the influence of the far-right parties led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir while focusing the cabinet on the mutual goal of driving Hamas from power in Gaza. Yet their policy differences have become more salient since then, and Netanyahu seems convinced that Gantz—who is riding high in the polls—will soon leave the government to capitalize on the prime minister’s wartime unpopularity in potential early elections. This has made Netanyahu more dependent on his far-right ministers, much to the consternation of the White House.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Domestic Politics, Conflict, and Benjamin Netanyahu
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
38. Israel and Genocide: Not Only In Gaza
- Author:
- Mark Lewis Taylor
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Israel and the United States share responsibility in perpetuating Guatemala's military-sponsored Silent Holocaust.
- Topic:
- Genocide, Counterinsurgency, and State Sponsored Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Israel, Palestine, Gaza, Guatemala, and United States of America
39. Viva Palestina! NYC Student Encampments Spark National Rebellion
- Author:
- Mariana Navarrete Villegas
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Latinx students are standing with Palestine. For them, the occupation and oppression of Palestine are inseparable from the U.S.- and Israel-backed militarization of Latin America.
- Topic:
- Genocide, Occupation, Protests, Political Movements, Students, and Militarization
- Political Geography:
- New York, Palestine, Gaza, Latin America, North America, and United States of America
40. US Student Pro-Palestine Demonstrations Remain Overwhelmingly Peaceful | ACLED Brief
- Author:
- Bianca Ho and Kieran Doyle
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- Student protests calling for divestment from Israel on university campuses around the United States are the latest sign of public discontent with the Israel-Palestine conflict. Some notable violent clashes have recently taken place, such as on the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) campus, where demonstrators and counter-demonstrators fought at a student encampment overnight on 30 April. However, between 7 October and 3 May, the overwhelming majority of student demonstrations — 97% — have remained peaceful. Demonstrations involving students now make up more than 40% of all US demonstration activity related to the conflict since it reignited in October 2023. Over 94% of the more than 1,360 student demonstrations held between 7 October 2023 and 3 May 2024 have shown support for Palestine.
- Topic:
- Political Movements, Students, Demonstrations, Divestment, and Universities
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, North America, and United States of America
41. Emile Bustani Middle East Seminar: Gaza: ‘Can Anyone Hear Us?’
- Author:
- Sara Roy
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- The Emile Bustani Middle East Seminar: “Gaza: ‘Can Anyone Hear Us?’" Dr. Sara Roy, Center for Middle Eastern Studies, Harvard University
- Topic:
- Human Rights and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
42. Is There Hope for Gaza Under International Law?
- Author:
- Abigail Flynn
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- Why has international law failed to hold Israel responsible for its destruction of Gaza? It was built to enable the colonizer, not to protect the colonized, explains legal expert Jason Beckett.
- Topic:
- Genocide, International Law, United Nations, International Court of Justice (ICJ), Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
43. The EU’s Response to the Gaza War Is a Tale of Contradiction and Division
- Author:
- Martin Konečný
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- Since the Hamas attacks on October 7 and the start of Israel’s retaliatory offensive in the Gaza Strip, European Union (EU) member states have broadly split into three camps. At one end are those who have professed to stand “on the side of Israel”, flying its flag on government buildings, backing its military campaign, and avoiding criticism even after the Israeli army flattened most of Gaza and killed thousands of Palestinian civilians. The Czech Republic, Austria, and Hungary stand out in this camp, followed by Germany. At the other end of the spectrum are governments that proclaim to stand “on the side of peace” and, while strongly condemning Hamas, have been calling for a ceasefire and openly criticizing Israel for violating international humanitarian law. Belgium, Spain, and Ireland are the most vocal members of this moderate camp, followed by France and several others. The third, middle camp, is made up of those who are somewhere in between the first two groups: siding with Israel but in less absolute terms than the first camp. It would be wrong to label the moderate camp as “pro-Palestinian”. The fact is that there is no pro-Palestinian camp at the level of EU governments: none of them has hoisted Palestinian flags or primarily condemned the Israeli occupation or its devastating Gaza offensive, as many countries in the so-called Global South have done. The only vocal exception may be Spain’s Deputy Prime Minister Yolanda Díaz of the leftwing Sumar party who has denounced “Israeli apartheid” and called for sanctions and an arms embargo against Israel. However, her statements do not represent the position of the government as a whole.
- Topic:
- European Union, Hamas, Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
44. Israel’s Ever-Existing Plan to Depopulate the Gaza Strip
- Author:
- Nadia Naser-Najjab
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- The recent violence in Gaza may be unprecedented in its intensity, but the Zionist rhetoric underlying Israel’s current brutal strategy has roots going back much earlier than October 7
- Topic:
- Zionism, Ethnic Cleansing, Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, October 7, 2023 Gaza War, and Depopulation
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
45. Security and Peace After the War in Gaza
- Author:
- Ibrahim Awad
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- Is the two-state solution feasible? In order to pursue such a policy, the international community must be able to overcome three main points of contention: Israeli occupation, the creation of a Palestinian state, and the role of Hamas
- Topic:
- Security, Self Determination, Refugees, Hamas, Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, 2023 Gaza War, and Two-State Solution
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
46. Hamas, ISIL, and Israel: An Exercise in Comparison
- Author:
- Ayman Zaineldine
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- One of Israel’s main responses to the October 7 attacks was to declare that “Hamas is ISIL,” and that the world should thus unite in support for Israel to eliminate it. But others are not sure, and ask whether Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territories, and its practices as an occupying power, is even more worthy of global sanction
- Topic:
- Islamic State, Hamas, October 7, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
47. Gaza: Israel’s Unwinnable War
- Author:
- Richard Silverstein
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- Even if, for argument’s sake, it achieved its war goals, Palestinian resistance will exist wherever there are Palestinians—whether in Sinai, Beirut, Ankara, Tehran or Amman
- Topic:
- Israel Defense Forces (IDF), Axis of Resistance, 2023 Gaza War, and AIPAC
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America
48. Radicalization and Regional Instability: Effects of the Gaza War
- Author:
- Mamoun Fandy
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- As Israel attempts to reestablish its identity as a regional deterrent by destroying Gaza, the effects of its campaign cascade through the region, shifting political alignments, and generating new concerns over radicalization and conflict spillover
- Topic:
- Radicalization, Deterrence, Instability, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
49. Genocide on the Docket at the Hague
- Author:
- Omar Auf
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- International law is a tool for both oppression and emancipation, says AUC law professor Thomas Skouteris in this Q&A as he breaks down the intricacies of the ICJ’s January 26 order for provisional measures in South Africa v. Israel, and elucidates the present and future of international law.
- Topic:
- Genocide, International Law, International Court of Justice (ICJ), and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Israel, South Africa, Palestine, Gaza, and The Hague
50. Navigating the Politics of Humanitarian Aid in Gaza
- Author:
- Shatha Abdulsamad
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- Despite Israeli efforts to destroy it, UNRWA remains an embodiment of international responsibility for the question of Palestinian refugees, and a reminder of their inalienable right of return.
- Topic:
- Genocide, Humanitarian Aid, Refugees, Funding, United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), and Right of Return
- Political Geography:
- Israel, Palestine, and Gaza