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2. Virtual Briefing Series | Gaza’s Future: Its Neighbors and Trump Weigh In
- Author:
- Eyal Hulata and Mirette Mabrouk
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- President Donald Trump has apparently been pushing Egypt and Jordan to absorb the displaced Gazan population amid Arab opposition to his proposal. Trump also vowed to discuss the issue with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during his upcoming visit to Washington, DC. How realistic is this idea? And what’s at stake for both Palestinians and the security architecture of the broader region? This on-the-record briefing will feature Eyal Hulata, former head of Israel’s National Security Council (NSC). Hulata is also Senior International Fellow at The Foundation for Defense of Democracies. The briefing will also feature Mirette Mabrouk, Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute. Our experts will discuss Trump’s leverage regarding aid, the Palestinian reaction, Amman’s and Cairo’s political considerations, potential regional security implications, and how the fate of Gazan refugees may affect the longer-term resilience of Israel’s peace treaties with Jordan and Egypt.
- Topic:
- Displacement, Ethnic Cleansing, Donald Trump, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, Egypt, and Jordan
3. Translating Trump’s Disruptive Diplomacy into a New Reality in Gaza
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The turmoil caused by President Donald Trump’s statements regarding the future of Gaza – which include the eviction of its population, American governance, the creation of a “Middle Eastern Riviera,” and an ultimatum demanding the release of all hostages – highlights two key issues on which Trump’s positions appear self-contradictory. The call for the release of all hostages (and hence perhaps an end to the war) seems at odds with the administration’s firmly held view that Hamas must no longer be the ruling power in Gaza. At the same time, the call for Palestinians to leave Gaza contradicts the traditional commitment to America’s Arab friends (and clients). The stability of the regimes in Egypt and Jordan, if pushed to take the Gazans and punished for their refusal, could be endangered – despite King Abdullah’s efforts to mollify Trump during his visit to Washington. The future of their peace treaties with Israel would also be threatened. The Saudis too have responded abruptly, reiterating their support for Palestinian demands. Consequently, the region has been thrust into a state of crisis.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Donald Trump, 2023 Gaza War, and Hostages
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America
4. Trump Takes on the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
- Author:
- Michał Wojnarowicz
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Donald Trump’s actions and announcements to date regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict are reversing the decisions of previous administrations and strengthening Benjamin Netanyahu’s political position. At the same time, they threaten the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. The deliberately ambiguous statements about the resolution of the crisis seem gauged to increase pressure on regional states and European partners.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Donald Trump, Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America
5. An Analysis of Egyptian and Israeli Discourse on Israel’s Control of the Philadelphi Corridor during the 2023 Gaza War
- Author:
- Fatamaelzahraa Nassar and Ahmet Üçağaç
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
- Institution:
- Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
- Abstract:
- This study investigates the interplay between sovereignty discourse and national security through an analysis of Israeli and Egyptian discourses during Israel’s control over the Philadelphi Corridor following the 2023 Gaza War. Employing critical discourse analysis, the research examines official statements and media coverage from both nations, highlighting how sovereignty is mobilised to legitimize military actions and secure strategic advantages. The findings reveal contrasting approaches. Israel framed its actions as essential to national security and counterterrorism, using symbolic language to justify its occupation. On the other hand, Egypt sought to balance sovereignty discourse with regional stability and international obligations. However, both discourses displayed inconsistencies between rhetoric and practice, with significant implications for human security and regional stability. This study contributes to understanding the role of sovereignty discourse in shaping geopolitical conflicts and offers insight into the challenges of aligning security imperatives with legal and ethical norms.
- Topic:
- Sovereignty, Armed Conflict, Discourse, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Egypt
6. ICC Investigation of Biden Administration Officials for Aiding Israeli War Crimes with Sarah Leah Whitson
- Author:
- Sarah Whitson and Sahar Aziz
- Publication Date:
- 05-2025
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
- Abstract:
- In January of 2025, the human rights organization, Democracy in the Arab World Now (DAWN) (https://dawnmena.org/) , made a formal request with the International Criminal Court (ICC) to investigate former U.S. officials President Joe Biden, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin for their accessorial roles in aiding and abetting, as well as intentionally contributing to, Israeli war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza. With the support of ICC-registered lawyers and other war crimes experts, the submission details a pattern of deliberate and purposeful decisions by these officials to provide military, political, and public support to facilitate Israeli crimes in Gaza; this support included at least $17.9 billion of weapons transfers, intelligence sharing, targeting assistance, diplomatic protection, and official endorsement of Israeli crimes, despite knowledge of how such support had and would substantially enable grave abuses. Join host Sahar Aziz (https://saharazizlaw.com/) in conversation with Sarah Leah Whitson (https://dawnmena.org/experts/sarah-le...) , executive director of DAWN, about the key facts and law supporting the request for the International Criminal Court to investigate Biden officials for aiding and abetting Israeli War Crimes in Gaza.
- Topic:
- International Law, War Crimes, International Criminal Court (ICC), and Joe Biden
- Political Geography:
- Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America
7. Israel, Hamas, and the Burdens of History
- Author:
- Michael J. Reimer
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- The violence of the Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023, and Israel’s subsequent retaliatory war on Gaza have reignited historical collective traumas and existential fears among Jewish-Israelis, the Jewish Diaspora, and Palestinians
- Topic:
- Diaspora, Trauma, Hamas, Palestinians, October 7, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Gaza
8. Trump’s Alternate Reality in the Middle East
- Author:
- Hussein Ibish
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- With his recent foray into drastic measures to resolve the Israel-Palestine continuum, could there be a method to the madness of King Trump?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Donald Trump, Real Estate, and Israeli–Palestinian Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America
9. Trump’s Return: What It Could Mean for Palestine and the Region
- Author:
- Ramzy Baroud
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- Donald Trump’s return to the White House in the context of the Gaza war and other regional conflicts raises questions regarding his approach to the Israel-Palestine conflict
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Donald Trump, Armed Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America
10. The Consequences and Prospects of Israel’s Ban of UNRWA
- Author:
- Kjersti G. Berg, Søren Arnberg, and Lex Takkenberg
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- As the UN agency’s operations continue to be obstructed, its outright ban will continue the perpetuation of severe human suffering and have multidimensional ramifications, from illegality on the international level to political considerations regarding the tenuous ceasefire
- Topic:
- Refugees, Humanitarian Crisis, 2023 Gaza War, and United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA)
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
11. Palestinian Women: Between War Resilience and Their Role in Post-Conflict Reconstruction in Gaza.
- Author:
- Mirvat al-Zaqzouq and Diab Zayed
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- Women constitute 49% of the total population, according to the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS) reports, but their contribution to public life remains far below their numbers in society. According to the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS) reports, women in the labor market will account for 19% in 2023. In decision-making centers, women’s participation remains low and one of the lowest rates in the region, despite being one of the most important indicators of gender equality, as data for 2021 showed that the percentage of women members of the Central Council constitutes about 23%, 19% of the members of the National Council, and 12% of the members of the Council of Ministers. There is also one-woman governor out of 15 governors, and 1% of the heads of local authorities in Palestine are women. As for the management of the councils of chambers of commerce, industry and agriculture, only 1% are women, about 19% of judges are women, and 18% of prosecutors are women. These figures reflect a marked exclusion of women from public life, which negatively affects their status, deepens gender inequality gaps, and at the same time prevents society from benefiting from women’s abilities and contribution to public life. This will inevitably affect the development of society and reinforce internal conflicts, especially gender conflicts. The exclusion of women in Palestine is a social tendency to exclude them from important public positions in the economy and politics, preventing them from expressing their opinions and limiting their public visibility. Despite the vital role that women play in crises, such as their steadfastness during the recent war on the Gaza Strip, in which various types of munitions were used including internationally banned ones, and came after years of siege imposed on Palestinian men and women, which deepened their suffering, but the general trend was to exclude women.
- Topic:
- Reconstruction, Women, Post-Conflict, Palestinians, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, and Gaza
12. Perceptions on Enhancing Youth Access to Decision-Making Positions in the Palestinian
- Author:
- Jamal al-Fadi and Raed al-Dab'i
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- This policy paper addresses the reality of Palestinian youth participation and access to decision-making centers in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, amidst the political, economic, and social challenges faced by Palestinian youth due to Israeli occupation, internal division, and the Gaza blockade. Youth face significant difficulties in gaining opportunities for active participation in decision-making processes. The paper emphasizes the importance of empowering youth to access decision-making centers as a step toward achieving development and stability in Palestinian society. It highlights the need to enhance educational and training opportunities, improve economic conditions, and enable youth to have a real impact on public policies. Additionally, the paper offers alternatives, solutions, and practical recommendations, such as promoting political dialogue between the West Bank and Gaza, providing platforms for political participation, and developing economic and educational opportunities, in order to achieve genuine empowerment for Palestinian youth in various fields.
- Topic:
- Occupation, Youth, Economic Development, Decision-Making, Political Participation, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, and West Bank
13. Towards Practical Strategies to Overcome the Identity and Thinking Crisis Among Palestinian Youth after October 7
- Author:
- Amal Qeshta and Amjad Abu Al-Ezz
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper addresses the shifts in the attitudes of Palestinian youth after the events of October 7, highlighting the impact of the Israeli aggression on the West Bank and Gaza Strip, and its implications on the culture and political and social participation of Palestinian youth. It also reviews the psychological and social challenges they face, with a focus on the phenomenon of “chaotic thinking” that affected national identity and future orientations, leading young people to different choices between frustration and involvement in armed resistance.
- Topic:
- Youth, Identity, October 7, 2023 Gaza War, and Armed Resistance
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, and West Bank
14. Assessing the Efforts of International Community to Protect Human Rights in Palestine: Interventions and Challenges
- Author:
- Ilham Shamally and Yehya Qaoud
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper examines international interventions aimed at protecting Palestinian human rights amid the ongoing conflict in Gaza and escalating tensions in the West Bank. It highlights international humanitarian law as the key legal framework designed to protect civilians during armed conflicts. The paper identifies significant challenges hindering these efforts, notably the overlap between international politics and law, and global polarization, which obstructed decisive measures to safeguard Palestinians—especially given the frequent use of veto power by countries such as the United States at the UN Security Council, allowing Israel to continue its operations without substantial restraint. The study focuses on international efforts, including UN General Assembly resolutions calling for ceasefires, though these remained non-binding due to weak enforcement mechanisms. Additionally, it discusses significant legal initiatives, including South Africa’s lawsuit against Israel at the International Court of Justice, and the International Criminal Court’s issuance of arrest warrants against Israeli leaders for war crimes. The paper further outlines humanitarian and medical interventions by organizations like UNRWA, the International Red Cross, and the World Health Organization, all of which faced substantial obstacles, particularly Israeli restrictions on humanitarian aid access—a tactic identified by the paper as part of a deliberate starvation policy. It emphasizes the necessity of a unified Palestinian political system capable of enhancing diplomatic efforts and confronting these challenges effectively. Finally, the paper calls for re-evaluating current international mechanisms and more stringent enforcement of international law. It underscores the importance of unified Palestinian efforts to overcome international political polarization, thus ensuring more effective protection of Palestinian civilians in the face of ongoing, severe human rights violations.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Humanitarian Aid, International Community, UN Security Council, International Humanitarian Law (IHL), and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, and West Bank
15. Toward a More Tolerant Society: Mechanisms Against Hate Speech and Intolerance – Gaza as a Model in the Context of War
- Author:
- Islam Moussa Atallah and Khitam Abu Odeh
- Publication Date:
- 05-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- In times of wars and disasters, the effects of destruction are not limited to material and human losses, but extend to the moral and social structure of society, generating new forms of tensions, intensifying latent negative tendencies, and inciting divisions that may remain for decades after the ceasefire. Hate speech and intolerance are among the most prominent threats to the Palestinian social fabric in times of crisis, and their presence has escalated sharply during the ongoing Israeli war on the Gaza Strip. In the face of widespread destruction, legal vacuum, mass displacement, insecurity, exclusion, and symbolic and moral violence, hate speech feeds on feelings of anger and despair, and finds fertile ground in a socially and politically exhausted environment. The danger of such rhetoric stems from the fact that it not only expresses temporary tension, but also reproduces structural divisions and deepens societal fissures along familial, regional, or political lines. In the Palestinian context, hate speech cannot be separated from the general structure of the long conflict, whether with the occupation or internally between the components of society. Palestinians themselves, despite their collective suffering, have for years been facing increasing challenges related to weak social cohesion, the division of political authority, and the erosion of trust between citizens and their institutions. As the war on Gaza intensified and the humanitarian tragedy intensified, discourses of accusation, betrayal, and exclusion emerged, whether on the basis of political affiliation, family origins, geography (between those displaced from the north and those settled in the south), or even economic and social status, revealing an underlying crisis in the cultural and social structure that goes beyond the impact of the war itself.
- Topic:
- Hate Speech, Intolerance, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, and Gaza
16. The Sources of Southeast Asian Discontent Over Gaza
- Author:
- Meghan Murphy
- Publication Date:
- 05-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Asia Society
- Abstract:
- On January 19, 2025, countries around the world, including the member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), breathed a sigh of relief when a tentative ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas was announced by mediators—the United States, Egypt, and Qatar—hoping it would mean an end to the bloodshed. The most recent iteration of the nearly seven-decades-long conflict began on October 7, 2023, when Hamas launched an attack that killed 1,195 Israelis, and it has since resulted in more than 60,000 Palestinian casualties and the destruction of much of the Gaza Strip by the Israeli Defense Forces. Central to the conversation around the war has been the role of Washington, which, as Israel’s strongest ally, has provided the country with more than $17.9 billion in security assistance since October 2023. Then-president-elect Donald Trump claimed credit for the deal, writing on Truth Social that it occurred as a result of his peace-seeking administration winning the November 2024 presidential election. However, the ceasefire agreement collapsed after his inauguration; the situation in Palestine has only worsened during a two-month-long Israeli blockade on humanitarian aid to Gaza. As President Trump embarked on a trip to the Gulf States in mid-May, it was not just Middle Eastern states that were closely watching the administration’s policy on Gaza, but also the countries of Southeast Asia, where many policymakers remain concerned with what will happen next. Several states—especially Muslim-majority Malaysia and Indonesia—have maintained a deep frustration with what they perceive as American-approved Israeli war tactics and, as of early February, with the Trump administration’s plan to “take over Gaza.” In its first months in office, the Trump foreign policy team has tried to indicate that it is committed to continuing strong diplomatic efforts in the Indo-Pacific despite uncertainty on trade and security policies. In Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s first week in office, he spoke with his counterparts in three Southeast Asian countries—the Philippines, Indonesia, and Vietnam—where he raised concerns regarding China’s behavior in the South China Sea. However, if the Trump administration is committed to countering China in the region through strengthening diplomatic relations and military cooperation with Southeast Asian nations, it will have to address the concerns of those countries that are deeply angered by the ongoing war in Gaza. To better understand why these countries have responded as they have, it is crucial to understand the decades-long history connecting Palestine to Southeast Asia.
- Topic:
- Genocide, Treaties and Agreements, Public Opinion, Ceasefire, and ASEAN
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Southeast Asia
17. Smoke and Mirrors: Israel Stronger or Weaker in 2025? Implications for Israel and its Neighbours
- Author:
- Osnat Lubrani
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
- Abstract:
- Writing this 2025 trend report on a topic I am knowledgeable about has been a Sisyphean task. Every day I woke up to realize the ‘trend’ I confidently foresaw yesterday is questioned by a new development. I submit that by the time I complete this report, it will become outdated the next day. Since its colossal security/defense failure on 7 October 2023, Israel has been able to restore its reputation as a formidable military power with substantial military support from the USA and others, notably its neighbors (Bradley A, 2024). Gaza is destroyed and Hamas is still in charge, but Israel can point to its elimination of Hamas and Hezbollah leadership, the decimation of their military capabilities, and effective striking of Iran and the Houthis as impressive wins. Yet Israel at the start of 2025 is weaker as a state and as a society. The reasons are manifold. Some trace back to before the 7th of October, while others followed from it. All of the issues—from extreme political and social divisions to a plummeting international standing (Wintour, P. 2024) to grave economic losses (Ziady, H. 2024)—have worsened since. Israel’s choices and actions in 2025, both domestically and internationally, will not only affect its long-term security and stability, but also those of its neighbors and the broader Middle East. The polarized geopolitical landscape already is facing disruptions at the start of the year; the extent of their severity will depend on how the USA foreign policy will unfold under the new administration. What is clear is that in 2025, the United States has become even more significant in determining Israel’s path and the broader region’s trajectory. President Trump’s initial statements of intent to end all wars, with focus on the Middle East and Ukraine, and to secure a lucrative deal for Israel with Saudi Arabia hint at possible scenarios. However, as he adds outlandish items to his ‘to do’ list—even some which diametrically contradict his earlier wishes—one can logically assume that not all of his plans will come to fruition. Given Trump’s mercurial nature, many “known unknowns,” as Donald Rumsfeld once put it, remain.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Civilians, Atrocities, Ceasefire, Armed Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
18. European Shift: The Path Toward Palestinian State Recognition
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 08-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Western and European announcements regarding intentions to recognize a Palestinian state in September 2025 have accelerated, coinciding with the upcoming UN General Assembly meeting. These developments emerge amid intensifying criticism of Israeli positions in both Western media and social platforms, creating mounting domestic pressure on European governments to adopt clearer stances.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Palestinians, UN General Assembly, and Recognition
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
19. Aftershocks from Gaza: From Local to Global Consequences (Part 1)
- Author:
- Institute for the Study of Diplomacy Working Group
- Publication Date:
- 09-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
- Abstract:
- The grotesque attacks by Hamas on October 7, 2023, and Israel’s subsequent military campaign in Gaza have upended long-standing assumptions about regional order. The Middle East’s previous reliance on a US-led security framework has given way to a fragmented, multi-aligned landscape in which middle powers pursue their interests, while the Palestinian issue—long marginalized—has returned to the center of regional and global diplomacy. Israel has secured tactical military gains but at the cost of increasing diplomatic isolation, while conditions in Gaza have fueled global demands for a sustainable political solution. Iran, Hezbollah, and Syria face profound setbacks, while Turkey and the Arab Gulf states seek to expand influence without the means to dominate. China and Russia remain cautious players, unwilling or unable to shape the conflict’s outcome. For the United States, the Gaza war poses a strategic dilemma. Despite efforts to broker ceasefires and secure hostages, Washington has been unable—or unwilling—to exert decisive leverage on Israel. The Biden and Trump administrations alike have struggled to articulate a coherent, sustainable strategy that balances US interests in security, energy, stability, and credibility. The ISD Gaza Report is organized in two parts: Part I: A ground assessment of the regional shifts since October 7, with particular focus on Israel, Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as the reemergence of Palestine as the central unresolved question in Middle East politics, and the role of regional states. Part II: A deeper analysis of Iran’s position and prospects, scenarios for regional order, and US policy options, culminating in concrete recommendations for advancing stability while protecting US strategic interests. Participants underscored that any durable path forward begins and ends with Palestine and the Palestinians. US policymakers must adapt to a regional order defined not by hegemonic control but by contested pluralism and assertive middle powers. Strategic clarity, consistent diplomacy, and credible leverage are essential if Washington hopes to pursue its interests amid the aftershocks from Gaza—and not merely react to them.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Hamas, Palestinians, October 7, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America
20. The Hamas-Israel War: An Early Assessment
- Author:
- Robert Satloff
- Publication Date:
- 12-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Despite rhetoric to the contrary, neither side can claim a decisive win, and an uneasy status quo could persist as long as Trump, the ceasefire guarantors, and Israeli leaders keep a lid on their frustrations. Three months after Israel and Hamas agreed to a U.S.-brokered ceasefire, the strategic outcome of the war remains uncertain. Both sides can point to meaningful achievements, but neither can claim decisive victory. Whereas Israel gained the release of its remaining hostages and a Gaza buffer zone to prevent future attacks, Hamas still controls nearly half the territory while its longtime patrons, Qatar and Turkey, have attained unprecedented standing in Washington. Uncertainty now looms as President Trump prepares to announce the transition to “phase two” of the ceasefire, which will see a raft of hopeful initiatives crash into the reality of a Gaza divided between Israeli and Hamas zones of control, without any agreed path toward disarming the terrorist group—the necessary precondition for any real progress toward full implementation of the ceasefire. In this timely and provocative Policy Note, Washington Institute Executive Director Robert Satloff explains that several factors could shake up the status quo in Gaza. These include President Trump’s impatience for results, discontent from the Qatari and Turkish ceasefire guarantors, and Israeli unease at its enemy’s stubborn survival. While outlining the potential for a total breakdown of the ceasefire and return to full-scale hostilities, Satloff also argues that Jerusalem has a powerful interest in preventing a situation in which the White House is forced to choose between Israel and the ceasefire’s guarantors—and offers ways to avoid that deeply problematic scenario.
- Topic:
- Hamas, Ceasefire, Armed Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza