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1. Authoritarian kleptocrats are thriving on the West’s failures. Can they be stopped?

Author:
Francis Shin and Ben Judah
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
A hidden web of power revealed itself to Internet users in early 2022. Following a brutal government crackdown in Kazakhstan in January, anyone using open-source flight-tracking websites could watch kleptocratic elites flee the country on private jets. A little more than a month later, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine brought a new spectacle: social media users were able to track various oligarchs’ superyachts as they jumped from port to port to evade Western sanctions. These feeds captured a national security problem in near real time: In Eurasia and beyond, kleptocratic elites with deep ties to the West were able to move themselves and their assets freely despite a host of speeches by senior officials, sanctions, and structures designed to stop them. Kleptocratic regimes—kleptocracy means “rule by thieves”—have exploited the lax and uneven regulatory environments of the global financial system to hide their ill-gotten gains and interfere in politics abroad, especially in the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union. They are aided in this task by a large cast of professional enablers within these jurisdictions. The stronger these forces get, the more they erode the principles of democracy and the rule of law. Furthermore, the international sanctions regime imposed on Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine has little hope of long-term success if the global financial system itself continues to weaken. The West still has a long way to go to rein in the authoritarian kleptocrats who have thrived on the institutional dysfunction, regulatory failure, and bureaucratic weakness of the transatlantic community for far too long. We need to rethink not just how we combat kleptocracy, but also how we define it. Policy makers need to understand that authoritarian regimes that threaten transatlantic security are closely linked to illicit financial systems. As it stands, our thinking about how foreign corruption spreads is too constrained by stereotypes about kleptocratic goals and actions.
Topic:
Corruption, Diplomacy, Intelligence, Politics, Sanctions, Authoritarianism, Reform, European Union, Regulation, Finance, Economy, Rule of Law, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, United Kingdom, Europe, Ukraine, Canada, and United States of America

2. Triggering the Rule-of-Law Conditionality Mechanism against Hungary

Author:
Veronika Jóźwiak
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The mechanism that makes the payment of funds from the EU budget conditional on compliance with the principles of the rule of law is the newest instrument for protecting the Union’s financial and political interests. The tool allows the European Commission and the EU Council (Council) to exert influence on Member States that violate the fundamental principles of the Community. Triggering it against Hungary might result in a reduction of EU funds to the country as a consequence of rule-of-law violations for the first time in EU history. It is doubtful, however, that this will lead to systemic changes in Hungary.
Topic:
European Union, Rule of Law, European Commission, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe and Hungary

3. Rule of law: the uncertain gamble on conditionality

Author:
Eric Maurice
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
Will 2023 be the year when Hungary and Poland join the ranks of Member States that respect the values of the European Union? Nothing is less certain because, in Budapest as in Warsaw, the reforms demanded by the Union have not yet been implemented. In early February Polish president Andrzej Duda, referred a law which was supposed to bring an end to disciplinary abuses against judges to the Constitutional Court. The Hungarian government has still not completed reforms to make public procurement more transparent and to strengthen the fight against corruption. The fact that these measures are being discussed indicates however that the balance of power has changed. 2022 was a pivotal year in the European Union's efforts to combat breaches of the rule of law in its Member States. For the first time, a range of new and old tools, specific or not, structural or conjunctural, were used to try to reverse the trend that has been developing for several years, mainly in Hungary and Poland, of undermining the independence of the judiciary, systems of checks and balances, and certain rights that are considered fundamental.
Topic:
European Union, Rule of Law, Judiciary, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, Poland, Romania, and Hungary

4. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: Unity is good, but ambition is better

Author:
Sophie Pornschlegel and Ilke Toygür
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
In view of the volatile geopolitical environment, EU leaders no longer have the luxury of waiting for all 27 member states to find a consensus. In order to lead the way to a Union that is apt for future challenges, the EU should become more ambitious and embrace alternatives, such as differentiated integration, in the coming months and years. Rather than returning to the status quo ante, the EU should use this momentum to progress in five policy fields: economic governance, with a new recovery package and a reform of the fiscal rules; security and defence, with improved EU–NATO cooperation and a stronger ‘European pillar’; energy policy, by quickly steering member states away from dependence on Russian fossil fuels while simultaneously ensuring admissible energy prices for consumers and respecting the climate targets; enlargement and neighbourhood policy, by rethinking its aims and creating options for countries that are unlikely to become EU members in the foreseeable future; and the rule of law, to safeguard the Union’s values ‘at home’. Both the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion revealed that the EU institutions and leaders are capable of managing crises swiftly and decisively. This reality certainly increases its legitimacy in the eyes of its citizens as well as its allies. The European Union could use this moment of change to increase its ambition for reforms and for moving European integration forward. This should encourage leaders to think about all the options for designing the Union’s future. This is not a time for black and white thinking – Treaty change or nothing –, but rather a time to explore all the shades of grey for securing necessary reforms. If like-minded countries could lead the way, others may also follow. The changing and evolving positions in the EU could help secure more inclusive alliances for moving forward. The political momentum to do so is finally here.
Topic:
Security, Energy Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, Economy, Rule of Law, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

5. What should the EU do about Hungary’s illiberal turn?

Author:
Perle Petit
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
Since 2010, Hungary’s government has followed a clear and deliberate trajectory away from EU democratic principles, turning the country into the first illiberal state in the Union. Before Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Hungary’s illiberal turn remained relatively self-contained at the national level. Since the start of the war, however, this illiberalism has spread to the international arena, dramatically impeding EU institutional decision-making processes. Despite the urgency of the matter, the EU’s failure to address the country’s democratic decline has been evident. The EU institutions need to address the national and international impact of Hungary's flouting of democratic norms by proposing both short- and long-term solutions. To do so, the institutions should take the following actions: The EU Commission should stand fully behind the triggering of the rule of law conditionality mechanism against Hungary and insist that the country implements all proposed remedial measures in a legislatively binding way. A periodic review system must be put in place to avoid any reversal of these measures or manipulation of independent public bodies in the coming years. The rule of law conditionality mechanism should be triggered against other infringing countries, to demonstrate a zero-tolerance approach to democratic backsliding. The suspension of EU funds should be harmonised across different funding schemes. In this way, the Commission can avoid becoming compromised by disconnected conditionality mechanisms. Increased capabilities and powers should be conferred to independent EU organisations, such as the European Anti-Fraud Office and the European Public Prosecutor’s Office. These should review the strength of democratic institutions in backsliding countries and provide recommendations for reform. The institutions should look into the regional disbursement of EU budgets, bypassing central governments to allocate funds on a regional basis. The Council should consider replacing the unanimity rule with qualified majority voting to render EU decision-making processes more effective and to prevent single member states from holding EU decisions ‘hostage’. As Hungary’s leadership shows no signs of changing course, the EU should change tactics to actively preserve and protect democracy within its borders. The EU institutions should use the full toolbox at their disposal to halt Hungary’s illiberal turn, restore the independence of democratic institutions, and take long-term steps to prevent any further backsliding within the Union.
Topic:
European Union, Rule of Law, European Commission, Illiberalism, and Viktor Orbán
Political Geography:
Europe and Hungary

6. The rule of law in Poland or the false argument about the primacy of European law

Author:
Eric Maurice, Emilie Malivert, and Ana Pasturel
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
On 24 November, the Polish Constitutional Tribunal ruled that the European Convention on Human Rights was partially incompatible with the country's constitution. In July and October, it had issued similar rulings on the Treaty on European Union (TEU). This double decision comes as the European Commission suspended the approval of Poland's €36 billion recovery plan, including €23.9 billion in EU grants, due to concerns about the rule of law. On 19 November, the Commission also sent a letter to the Polish government as a prelude to the launch of a procedure that could lead to the suspension of EU funds under the budgetary conditionality regulation. The confrontation between the Polish government and the European institutions, primarily the Commission and the European Court of Justice, has been presented by the Polish government as a struggle of principle between the primacy of European law, which was allegedly being imposed excessively on Member States, with "the national legal order and the supreme force of the Constitution” being under threat. The Polish Prime Minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, explained that the implementation of EU law, as requested by the CJEU, would lead to "a fundamental lowering of the constitutional standards of judicial protection of Polish citizens, and unimaginable legal chaos". Beyond the grandstanding and responses in support of an effort to defend the sovereignty of peoples, it appears that the weakening of these constitutional norms in recent years in Poland is precisely what has led the Constitutional Tribunal to partly denounce the TEU (European Union) and the European Convention on Human Rights (Council of Europe), and that the quarrel over the primacy of European law is essentially a smokescreen to hide this situation.
Topic:
Human Rights, Sovereignty, Constitution, Rule of Law, Institutions, and Norms
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

7. The EU-Turkey Visa Liberalization Saga: Lessons from the European Neighborhood

Author:
Ioannis N. Grigoriadis and Ayşe Tuba Uslu
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
This policy paper co-authored by Ioannis Grigoriadis, Senior Research Fellow of ELIAMEP and Head of its Turkey Programme, and Ayşe Tuba Uslu, Senior at the Department of International Relations of Bilkent University, lays out the main challenges for the successful conclusion of the Visa Liberalization Dialogue (VLD) between the European Union and Turkey. It examines the impact of democratic backsliding, the decline of the rule of law, fundamental rights and divergence in the legal framework regarding organized crime and anti-terrorism on the VLD and highlights the mistrust that has developed between the parties. Through a comparison between Ukrainian, Georgian, Moldovan and Turkish VLDs, it aims to highlight how the VLD could come to a successful conclusion.
Topic:
Human Rights, Migration, Rule of Law, Visa, and Liberalization
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, Moldova, Middle East, Georgia, and Mediterranean

8. Public Administration in the era of Covid-19: Policy Responses and Reforms underway

Author:
Manto Lampropoulou
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Covid-19 has caused an unprecedented shock to the state apparatus and has triggered major reforms in the administrative system of Greece. Policy responses to the pandemic have brought about several positive changes towards the modernization and de-bureaucratization of public administration. However, the pace and scale of change vary significantly. The pandemic has acted as a strong driver for the digital transformation of the public sector and the strengthening of e-government policies. Numerous administrative procedures were streamlined, digitalized and simplified, working conditions have become more flexible and several improvements have taken place in service delivery and state-citizen relations. The observed centralisation of decision-making and the often use of fast-track procedures have raised questions of democratic control, transparency and the rule of law, while the emergency measureshave been criticized for the threats they pose for the protection of citizens’ rights, individual liberties and personal data. A key challenge remains the integration the emergency measures of the covid-19 policy agenda into a longer-term programme of administrative reform in the post-covid era.
Topic:
Reform, Democracy, Rule of Law, Public Policy, Transparency, COVID-19, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

9. The Lie Detector and the Stories about It: Narrative of the Fight against Organised Crime in the Function of Capturing the State

Author:
Marija Pavlovic, Bojan Elek, and Milos Jovanovic
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
How the narrative of the fight against organised crime is used to capture the state? Find out in the latest BCSP analysis. The objective of this report is to analyze the narrative of the fight against organised crime, i.e., the story the authorities are offering the public concerning this topic, for the purpose of establishing how it is used to capture the state. More precisely, the analysis attempts to explain how the polygraph was abused during the declared war on mafia to suspend judicial institutions, ‘cleanse’ some in the eyes of the public or criminalise others outside the statutory criminal procedure, and to identify the consequences of this approach to fighting organised crime. The so-called war on mafia officially began on 19 October 2020, when the President of Serbia used his Instagram profile to announce the final showdown between the state and organised crime. Set forth after a series of unsolved murders that had taken place on the streets of Serbian cities – characterised by experts mostly as mafia-style terminations – it initially looked like a marketing move that preceded the constitution of a new Government. Such understanding was supported by the fact that this was not the first time that government officials declared war on organised criminal groups. Former Minister of the Interior [MoI] declared a similar war almost four years earlier, under similar circumstances. One hero particularly stood out in this war. It was the lie detector, the omnipotent polygraph, used extensively in the previous months as the supreme arbiter of truth. Instead of lengthy court proceedings, complex investigations and obtaining evidence acceptable to the court, the polygraph was used by the highest state officials as a simple tool to directly prove to the citizens whether someone was telling the truth or lying, and to unmistakably determine guilt or innocence. Trials were replaced by media performances involving debates on who passed the lie detector test and who refused to take it, while politicians kept offering to be subjected to it or calling each other out for not doing the same thing, all in the name of the alleged fight against organised crime.
Topic:
Media, Rule of Law, Police, Judiciary, and Organized Crime
Political Geography:
Europe and Serbia

10. The Crime-Politics Nexus Entrapping The Balkans

Author:
Bojan Elek and Giorgio Fruscione
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
We are presenting you the Dossier on organized crime in the Balkans, produced in cooperation between the Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI) and Belgrade Centre for Security Policy. In some of the countries of the Western Balkans, criminal groups and political elites have grown increasingly interdependent. In particular, Serbia’s and Montenegro’s societies have suffered the most from these links. The two countries have long been considered frontrunners in the EU integration process, whose final completion, however, is difficult to foresee. Similarly, Albania’s EU negotiating process has also been delayed for years, in part because of the country’s role in global drug trafficking schemes. The crime-politics nexus is contributing to the erosion of the rule of law in several Balkan countries, where the risk – or reality – of state capture is increasingly worrisome. In light of recent events, Serbia appears to be the most concerning case as its authoritarian drift currently seems hard to reverse. Which consequences does the situation in Serbia have on other Balkan countries? What impact does state capture have on regional stability? And what is changing for the region’s integration prospects with the EU?
Topic:
Security, Crime, Rule of Law, Organized Crime, and State Capture
Political Geography:
Europe and Serbia

11. What Rule of Law for the European Union? – Tracing the Approaches of the EU Institutions

Author:
Justyna Maliszewska-Nienartowicz and Marcin Kleinowski
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
Although the rule of law is a normative notion, it requires a multidimensional approach. It speaks to important issues of law and politics, and its respect is essential for both legal and social security. It can be observed within the European Union (EU) where the issue of respect for the rule of law by its Member States has gained particular importance. The main goal of our study is to contribute to the academic discourse concerning the EU rule of law. The analysis particularly considers the approaches adopted by the EU institutions to the definition of this concept. Consequently, the first part of the article concentrates on difficulties in defining the rule of law. The second part presents the evolution of the Court of Justice approach toward this concept. The next part contains the analysis of the attitudes presented by other EU institutions in their documents. In the conclusions, it is underlined that although the approaches of the EU institutions towards the rule of have evolved, and they have tried to define it and indicate its main components, certain issues require clarification, e.g., the relations of the rule of law with other values.
Topic:
International Cooperation, European Union, Rule of Law, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Europe

12. Legal Positivism: AN Obstacle in the Process of Strengthening the Rule of Law in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Author:
Benjamin Nurkic
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
So far, a legal positivism issue in the process of strengthening the rule of law in Bosnia and Herzegovina was not recognized by the wider academic community. The expert report on rule of law issues in Bosnia and Herzegovina addresses, for the first time, legal positivism as a part of the process of strengthening the rule of law in Bosnia and Herzegovina. This paper is an attempt to gather, and in one place present all the advantages offered by the constitutional system of Bosnia and Herzegovina that were not used by its institutions due to the application and implementation of legal positivism. This paper demonstrates misguided reform policies whose sole purpose was the strengthening of the rule of law in Bosnia and Herzegovina but turned to be just superficial adjustments that were unsuccessful. The paper argues the necessity of legal education reform as the key element in the process of strengthening the rule of law. Legal education reform is possible through the reduction of legal positivism impact on future lawyers, and this will be accomplished by the change in the paradigm of legal understanding among future lawyers who will make important decisions on the rule of law in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Two strategic objectives must be met in terms of legal education reform for the strengthening of the rule of law: the development of a critical stance towards legal provisions in force and training in the use of international instruments during the decision-making process.
Topic:
Law, Reform, Constitution, Rule of Law, and Legal Aid
Political Geography:
Europe and Bosnia and Herzegovina

13. Lgitimisation of Autocracy in Turkey and Russia through the Review of the Constitution

Author:
Etleva Paplekaj
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
The review of the constitution emanates from the constitution, from the institute of constitutional review of which the latter is closely related to the dynamic processes in society as well as with the demand for sustainable stability, stability which very well it may be economic, political or social, national or international, the stability that affects even the constitutional order itself in a state. In this article, we will address the constitutional changes, the amendments over the years In Turkey and Russia which are 'proof' of the violation of the constitutional order, 'proof' of the impinging of democracy and stability in the country. Through this article, we will see that the constitutional system, rule of law, democracy or its consolidation, the stability in the country to a large extent are influenced by the way it is conducted the constitutional review process. The application or non-application of this instrument has multi-dimensional effects, negative, destabilizing ones.
Topic:
Reform, Democracy, Constitution, Political stability, Rule of Law, and Institutionalism
Political Geography:
Europe and Turkey

14. Rule-Bending Debates in Recent Finnish EU Policy: Pacta Sunt Servanda?

Author:
Saila Heinikoski
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The Finnish EU policy line has traditionally been adaptable and compromise-seeking, but recent examples related to the rule-bending of EU law reveal some new tendencies. Finland has stood out from the European mainstream in several cases that relate to the rule-bending of EU law in three different ways: rule-bending by others, collective rule-bending, and its own rule-bending. First, intervening in rule-bending by others has found support in Finnish EU policy. Finland prioritized the rule of law in its 2019 Council presidency, as well as in the Government Report on EU policy published on 28 January 2021. Second, alleged collective rule-bending seems to be linked to the threat of federalism. In negotiations on the recovery and resilience facility in 2020, there was a wide domestic debate on whether the result was consistent with the traditional interpretation of EU treaties. Third, Finland’s own rule-bending of the Schengen Border Code’s six-month limit for internal border controls during the Covid-19 crisis seems to have been quietly accepted, with the Interior Minister acknowledging the existence of an “illegal state of affairs”.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Rule of Law, Regionalism, and Federalism
Political Geography:
Europe and Finland

15. Exploring avenues in the EU’s rule of law crisis: What role for the Netherlands?

Author:
Luuk Molthof, Nienke van Heukelingen, and Giulia Cretti
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Despite the existence of an extensive ‘rule of law toolbox’, the EU has found it difficult to deal with rule of law issues. Many experts attribute the EU’s failure to act to a lack of political will and determination on the part of EU institutions and member states. However, not all actors are lacking in political will (equally). The Netherlands, for instance, has been very concerned about the erosion of the rule of law inside the EU and has been one of the more active member states – along with, for instance, Belgium, Finland, Sweden and Denmark – in trying to address the EU’s rule of law crisis. In this policy brief, we examine three possible avenues available to the Netherlands to strengthen the political will of EU institutions and (like-minded) peers to assertively address this crisis and to increase pressure on backsliding member states to safeguard the rule of law.
Topic:
European Union, Democracy, Rule of Law, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Europe, Finland, Belgium, Denmark, Sweden, and Netherlands

16. Rule of Law Diplomacy: Why the EU Needs to Become More Vocal in Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine

Author:
Laura Gelhaus, Pavel Havlíček, and Stefan Meister
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Supporting the rule of law has been central to the EU’s Eastern Partnership (EaP) policy since 2009. There has been very limited success in this, however. The EU’s core problem is what is usually its strength: addressing a highly politicized area through a technical approach. EU policymakers need to acknowledge that their political silence is permitting ruling elites in EaP countries to block progress in the rule of law and that the EU is failing to call out pervasive systems of informality there.
Topic:
Diplomacy, European Union, Partnerships, and Rule of Law
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, and United States of America

17. Protecting checks and balances to save the Rule of Law

Author:
Eric Maurice
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
For half a decade, the Polish government has been reshaping the country's judicial system in a process described by the European Union as a "threat to the rule of law". Despite numerous Council of Europe reports and resolutions, several infringement proceedings and decisions of the Court of Justice of the European Union (ECJ), and the unprecedented activation of the so-called Article 7 procedure of the Treaty on European Union (TEU), the transformation of the judiciary into relays of political power has continued and accelerated since the Law and Justice Party (PiS) won a new term in 2019 and the reelection of President Andrzej Duda in 2020, pushing Poland to the limits of the European legal order.
Topic:
Government, European Union, Courts, and Rule of Law
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

18. History and identity should not blight the EU’s enlargement policy towards the Western Balkans

Author:
Erwan Fouéré
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The EU must reject any attempt to introduce notions of history and identity into its enlargement policy. Otherwise it risks trampling on its 70 years of experience in overcoming the legacy of the past and promoting a peace project based on reconciliation and the rule of law. Yet this is precisely what is happening with Bulgaria’s veto against the opening of EU accession negotiations with North Macedonia. In March of last year the European Council gave the green light for the opening of accession negotiations with Albania and North Macedonia. A date for the first intergovernmental conference to formally launch the negotiations with both countries remains – unfortunately, out of sight.
Topic:
History, European Union, Rule of Law, Regional Integration, Identity, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, Bulgaria, Balkans, Albania, and North Macedonia

19. 2023: Turning Moment for European Energy Policy toward Balkans and the European Promotion of the Rule of Law

Author:
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:
The year 2023 is likely to bring congruence of events that may cause a “perfect storm” of breaking down security of energy supply, fragile political stability in the Balkans and its unsustainable social contract. As the region grows fragmented from mid-1960’s till nowadays, very few economic forces remain the EU than among themselves. The terms of trade favor imports against exports. After 20 years of infrastructure development and integration efforts, with support of donors and creditors, despite small improvements; Logistic Performance Index (LPI) for the Balkan countries remains slightly over half of best performers such as Germany. Port resources in place that may cause such impact to entire region in the given moment of time. Cross border trade in goods and services is negligibly small. Countries trade more with the rest of are not allocated in line with the commercial practice. That is not good enough for the region that links Mediterranean with the landlocked Danube area. Travel time along major railway routes (Zagreb – Belgrade or Belgrade -Bar) are twice longer than during 1980’s. Belgrade Port, that is the key destination for transport with all sea ports in the region is constrained by the city planning and kept below minimum throughput to be reported in European inland port statistics. Croatia, Montenegro or Albania, are hardly in position to engage into trade as their ports operate far below competitive thresholds. The transactions are prohibitively expensive.
Topic:
Energy Policy, International Cooperation, Infrastructure, European Union, and Rule of Law
Political Geography:
Europe and Balkans

20. Towards a More Principled European China Policy?

Author:
Stephan Frühling
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
Promoting political values (democracy, human rights and the rule of law) in China is a colossal undertaking, but the EU could be more effective than we think. To do so, it must act strategically, in unity, and in concert with like-minded partners. It must also strengthen its record of upholding political values and reform its procedures for foreign policy decision-making. On 30 June 2020, China adopted a National Security Law for the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region that not only undermines human rights and the rule of law that were promised to its citizens, but also violates international law. A few weeks before, when China’s intention became public, the European Union reacted cautiously, expressing concern but clarifying that the introduction of the law would not adversely affect its relations with China. The EU’s first reaction fell far short of statements released by the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia, among others. But the EU’s reaction grew more critical over time. The first EU institution to adopt a tougher approach was the European Parliament. Shortly after, the European Commission and – to a lesser extent – the European Council followed with statements by its presidents after the EU-China summit held on 22 June 2020. This episode could turn out to be exemplary for the role of political values in the European Union’s relations with China. China and Europe have fundamentally divergent political values, even though they often use the same terminology. For a long time, many Europeans believed that China’s definition of democracy, human rights and the rule of law –, the three constitutive values enshrined in the Treaty of the European Union – would ultimately converge with the European understanding. This has not turned out to be the case. China is growing more self-confident, not only defending but starting to spread its own definitions of the triad of political values. This comes at a time when the EU is realigning its China policy more generally. The new European Commission strives to be a “geopolitical” entity strategically engaging to achieve concrete results in its bilateral relations with China. The starting point of this shift is the 2019 “Strategic Outlook” developed by the European External Action Service, which defines China not only as a “partner”, but also a “competitor” and a “systemic rival”. On political values, China clearly is a “systemic rival”. The crucial question is whether “systemic rivalry” in the field of political values carries implications for other policy fields in which the EU and China are partners or competitors. A general consensus that the EU should adopt a more principled China policy and defend and promote its political values spells out very differently across EU institutions. By institutional design, the European Council is a pragmatic rather than principled institution. Compromise resulting from bargaining among member states with different interests shapes its approach. At the other end of the spectrum, the European Parliament serves a principled watchdog function, but has very limited competencies in foreign and security affairs. The European Commission strives to overcome the decades-old challenge of policy silos resulting from its fragmented institutional structure and the more than 60 sectoral dialogues with China. This carries the potential to turn more principled. However, to this day it is not clear whether the European Commission will make the promotion of political values a policy priority even if this comes at the cost of economic cooperation. This paper outlines ongoing debates on the EU’s new China policy and the role of political values in it, and provides 25 concrete policy recommendations for a more principled China policy that defends and promotes democracy, human rights and the rule of law.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Democracy, and Rule of Law
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

21. Security Sector Capture in Serbia – An Early Study

Author:
Predrag Petrovic and Jelena Pejic Nikic
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Report on state capture in Serbia is BCSP genuine and pioneering work aiming to document and deconstruct ongoing process of state capture in the security sector through presentation of mechanisms, actors and consequences of this process. For several years now, various international indexes have been measuring the stagnation and decline of democracy, the rule of law and fundamental freedoms in Serbia. Although the country is still formally in the process of European integration, the European Commission noticed back in 2018 that there are elements of state capture in the entire Western Balkans region. Due to the significance and ubiquity of this phenomenon in Serbia, the BCSP has embarked upon a pilot research project that aims to establish the main factors and conditions, as well as the mechanisms and actors, involved in state capture in the security sector. The capturing of the police, the security services and the defence sector in Serbia is analysed in this early study. Furthermore, it was necessary to situate the analysis in the country’s political context, and special chapters cover parliamentary oversight and control and the security sector financing. The research was conducted from May 2019 to April 2020 and is based on insights gleaned from both primary and secondary sources.
Topic:
Security, Regional Cooperation, Democracy, Rule of Law, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Europe and Serbia

22. The Impact of Disintegration Dynamics on EU Trade Policy: An Institutional Analysis

Author:
Konstantinos J. Hazakis
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Global Political Economy, University of Sussex
Abstract:
Safeguarding access to international markets requires an effective EU international trade policy. Equally important, preserving an open, rules-based world trading system presupposes strong EU capability as well as consensus of EU states on the scope and targets of EU international trade policy. The paper presents a policy oriented analytical framework of EU international trade policy taking into consideration the impact of disintegration dynamics and emerging trade protectionism. Initially, the analysis sets the problem while section two offers the major tenets of the politicization of EU international trade policy. Section three presents the key arguments of the institutional analysis on the issue while section four analyses the content of an alternative policy framework for understanding disintegration - EU trade policy interaction. Section five concludes and reaches useful policy implications. It is suggested that there is a need for more Europe on international trade meaning enhanced, effective and inclusive EU trade institutional action.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, European Union, Global Markets, Rule of Law, and Trade Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

23. From Words to Deeds: Upholding the Rule of Law in the CEE Region

Author:
Camille Dobler
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
With ongoing discussions on rule of law conditionality, and with the European Commission first Annual Rule of Law Report due soon, the focus on the rule of law is back at the top of the EU political agenda this autumn. As eyes turn to the latest political developments and threats to core EU principles and values in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), this policy brief suggests switching from a top-to-top perspective to a societal approach to uphold the rule of law. This would go beyond recommendations to cleanse the rule of law toolbox from inefficient political instruments, and strengthen legal ones. In addition to introducing conditionality, this brief advocates for more active support of local civil societies in exercising their democratic prerogatives over electoral and representative democracy.
Topic:
Civil Society, International Cooperation, International Law, European Union, and Rule of Law
Political Geography:
Europe

24. The Rule of Law and its Social Reception as Determinants of Economic Development. A Comparative Analysis of Poland and Germany

Author:
Christopher Hartwell, Kateryna Karunska, Krzysztof Głowacki, and Maria Krell
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The rule of law, by securing civil and economic rights, directly contributes to social prosperity and is one of our societies’ greatest achievements. In the European Union (EU), the rule of law is enshrined in the Treaties of its founding and is recognised not just as a necessary condition of a liberal democratic society, but also as an important requirement for a stable, effective, and sustainable market economy. In fact, it was the stability and equality of opportunity provided by the rule of law that enabled the post-war Wirtschaftswunder in Germany and the post-Communist resuscitation of the economy in Poland. But the rule of law is a living concept that is constantly evolving – both in its formal, de jure dimension, embodied in legislation, and its de facto dimension, or its reception by society. In Poland, in particular, according to the EU, the rule of law has been heavily challenged by government since 2015 and has evolved amid continued pressure exerted on the institutions which execute laws. More recently, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic transformed the perception of the rule of law and its boundaries throughout the EU and beyond (Marzocchi, 2020). Against this background, this study examines the rule of law as a determinant of economic development in Germany and Poland from both the de jure and de facto perspectives.
Topic:
Economic Growth, Rule of Law, Trade, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
Europe, Poland, and Germany

25. How Embassy Pristina Helped Kosovo Manage the Foreign Terrorist Fighter Problem

Author:
Greg Delawie
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Ambassadors Review
Institution:
Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:
Kosovo, which declared independence from Serbia in 2008, is the most pro-American country in the world. From 2012 to 2013, it was also the world’s per-capita biggest source of foreign terrorist fighters (FTFs) in Syria. It would seem those two statements could not possibly both be true, but they are. This is the story of how the professional diplomats at the U.S. Embassy in Pristina, aided by experts from the United States, played a major role in helping the new country bring the FTF problem under control for our mutual benefit. Between 2012 (when the Syrian civil war started) and 2016, more than 300 Kosovo citizens went to fight with al-Nusra, or ISIS. U.N. Development Program analysts who interviewed FTFs identified two categories of reasons for this phenomenon: “push factors” and “pull factors.” Among the push factors were Kosovo’s poverty, weak rule of law (enabling porous borders), corruption and high unemployment, especially among the young (60%, compared to 30% overall, in a population with 50% age 25 or younger). The pull factors were more complicated: After the 1998-1999 Kosovo war, “humanitarian” NGOs from the Middle East came to build mosques and provide aid, also importing Wahabi-style Islam, which is very different from Kosovo’s Hanafi Islamic tradition. Some Kosovo imams trained in Middle Eastern religious schools came back with a more radical Islam. ISIS recruiters proclaimed a religious duty for Kosovars to help Syrian Muslims threatened by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Radical imams operating outside the Kosovo Islamic community recruited young men, often offering computer or English classes as bait.
Topic:
Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Conflict, and Rule of Law
Political Geography:
Europe, Kosovo, and Balkans

26. Networks of impunity: Corruption and European foreign policy

Author:
Chris Raggett
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
European governments have failed to prevent corrupt actors from laundering hundreds of billions of dollars through the international financial system and their own economies. This breakdown in the rule of law empowers kleptocratic regimes across the globe, which capitalise on the political culture underpinning Europe’s approach to globalisation. Western governments create a negative feedback loop that hinders their foreign policy initiatives when they treat corruption in other countries as an inherent part of the local culture. European policymakers should aim to catch up with, and overtake, their US counterparts on anti-money laundering regulation and enforcement. European countries should create national institutions – and an international coalition of Western states – that are dedicated to countering kleptocrats.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Corruption, European Union, Rule of Law, Financial Crimes, and Impunity
Political Geography:
Europe

27. COMMENTARIES: State of the European Union address 2020

Author:
Katerina Davidova, Vít Havelka, Jana Juzová, Christian Kvorning Lassen, Danielle Piatkiewicz, and Zuzana Stuchlíková
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
Experts from EUROPEUM Institute for European Policy comment on the State of the Union address (SOTEU) given by the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen on 16 September 2020. Topics of the commentaries: Christian Kvorning Lassen: General Impressions – A Visionary Speech Challenged by Political Reality; Christian Kvorning Lassen: A Stronger European Health Union is Needed; Christian Kvorning Lassen: Migration – Ambitious rhetoric, dubious feasibility; Danielle Piatkiewicz: Multilateralism: Europe’s Call to Global Action – Taking the Lead; Kateřina Davidová: EU’s climate momentum not quashed by the pandemic as new target is presented; Jana Juzová: European Neighbourhoods – Vague Reassurances, Economy First; Zuzana Stuchlíková: Next Generation EU, Rule of Law and Conference on the Future of Europe; Vít Havelka: The EU and the UK fights over blame for Brexit fiasco
Topic:
Climate Change, Health, Migration, European Union, Multilateralism, and Rule of Law
Political Geography:
Europe

28. The Rule of Law in the EU Budget: Backing Down Is Too High a Price for the EU to Pay

Author:
Milan Nič, Roderick Parkes, Siawomir Sierakowski, and Shahin Vallée
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Hungary and Poland are threatening to veto the EU’s new budgetary arrangements if other governments apply the rule of law mechanism to them. It is becoming clear, however, that the new EU financial framework, and the much-heralded recovery fund, are more vital to Eastern Europe than to Europe’s South and that time is not on the side of the former. Awareness of this fact allows for a cool assessment of the pair’s bargaining positions – and of the precedent that any hasty resolution to the crisis will set.
Topic:
Government, Budget, European Union, and Rule of Law
Political Geography:
Europe and Eastern Europe

29. Ukrainian Activism for Transparency and Accountability: Two Steps Forward, One Step Back

Author:
Olena Tregub
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
In the wake of the Euromaidan protests that toppled the government of Viktor Yanukovych in 2014, Ukrainian activists and civil society organizations have pressed hard for anti-corruption reforms and greater openness and transparency in the public sector. Five years later, however, corruption remains a fixture of civic life—and a majority of Ukrainians believe the fight against corruption has been a failure. This new report reviews the changes that have taken place in the anti-corruption movement since the Euromaidan and identifies practical actions the international community can take to support reform efforts in Ukraine.
Topic:
Security, Corruption, Governance, Reform, Democracy, Rule of Law, Protests, Accountability, Transparency, and Justice
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

30. Poisoned heritage for the new Commission: The rule of law question

Author:
György Fóris
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
The rule of law issue is not going anywhere anytime soon. The Polish and Hungarian governments will likely remain in power for years. Czech, Croat and some Romanian leaders seem impressed and ready to follow the paths Kaczyński and Orbán have paved. And Italy might not have seen the last of Matteo Salvini. Member states that increasingly question, ignore, or even attack previously agreed-upon policies, political priorities or common principles are becoming a regular occurrence within the Union, one that the new Commission will have to deal with. In this Discussion Paper, György Fóris finds that in an increasingly politicised Union, the design of the current rule of law mechanism is lacking. He argues it cannot function effectively on legal grounds alone as long as the existing Treaty foundations remain ambiguous and the final decision is taken at the political level, where it is the Council and not the Commission that is the decisive player. So the von der Leyen Commission will face a difficult choice: either try to live with all of the formal members of the Union, listening to and mediating between them, while continuing to defend the rules and values that were entrusted to it as the Guardian of the Treaty and thus preserve the EU’s unity. Or, take sides and lead an open political fight against those who seem to weaken the previously agreed interpretation of fundamental European rules and principles. Fóris, however, offers a third option: While not giving up on unity, likeminded and willing EU countries could intensify their level of cooperation, while formally retaining all parties within the framework of a larger (and looser) Community.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, European Union, and Rule of Law
Political Geography:
Europe, Poland, Romania, Hungary, Croatia, and Czech Republic

31. Better Protection of the Rule of Law – or of European Taxpayers’ Money

Author:
Tamás Lattmann
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institute of International Relations Prague
Abstract:
The rule of law holds great importance to the EU, as it also should to its member states and improving its protection has become a focus of new legislative efforts. Will this proposed regulation be useful and effective tool added to EU’s legislation or will it do the opposite and hurt the member state governments? The author focuses on already existing procedures and their deficiencies and compares them to the current proposal while also shedding light on the background of the new legislation. The reflection addresses some of the questions that may be raised related to EU law, member state sovereignty and its possible effects. The regulation still has a long way to go to become a law and in or order for that to happen it needs to be accepted by the Council. The author lists potential scenarios that could occur in the process of the law’s adoption and explains the legislative procedures.
Topic:
Rule of Law, Tax Systems, and European Parliament
Political Geography:
Europe

32. Poland’s 2019 election: Bright prospects for the populist Right

Author:
Marco Siddi and Barbara Gaweda
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Poland’s incumbent party Law and Justice seems poised to win the election thanks to its welfare policies and the weakness of the opposition. However, its attacks on the independence of the judiciary and the media could further erode the rule of law and exacerbate disputes with the EU.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Elections, European Union, Populism, Conservatism, and Rule of Law
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

33. The Power of Ideas That Won the Cold War is Still Needed

Author:
Christopher Datta
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
American Diplomacy
Abstract:
To win the Cold War, President Ronald Reagan did something for which he is never credited: he dramatically increased the budget of the United States Information Agency, the public diplomacy arm of our struggle against communism. Senegal, in September of 1999, was about to hold a presidential election. Because of USIA's long history of promoting journalism in Senegal, the embassy decided to work in partnership with the local Print, Radio and Television Journalists Federation to hold a series of workshops on the role of journalists in covering elections. USIA was uniquely organized to promote democratic development through the long term support of human rights organizations, journalism, programs that helped build the rule of law, educational programs that encouraged the acceptance of diversity in society and, perhaps most importantly, through partnering with and supporting local opinion leaders to help them promote democratic values that stand in opposition to ideologies hostile to the West.
Topic:
Cold War, Diplomacy, Human Rights, Elections, Democracy, Rule of Law, Ideology, Networks, and Journalism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, United States, Europe, Iran, Soviet Union, West Africa, Syria, and Senegal

34. Ten years after EULEX: Key principles for future EU flagship initiatives on the rule of law

Author:
Naim Rashiti
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
With its “credible enlargement perspective for and enhanced EU enlargement with the Western Balkans”, the EU plans to launch several new flagship initiatives for the six aspiring countries. The key initiative envisaged is “to strengthen rule of law” through more detailed assessment of the rule of law and reform implementation by including case-based peer reviews, trial monitoring of serious corruption cases and organised crime, developing indicators for reform implementation and deploying advisory missions. The EU has begun some planning but detailed action plans are yet to come. New programmes and initiatives should be new in content and form. In the case of Kosovo, things are more complex; the clarity of the new plan and drawing the line between the past and future is key for any success of the upcoming initiatives. With EULEX still on the ground, after 10 years of deployment, plagued by low trust and an image of failure, the rule of law has little improved in Kosovo. The EU should carefully consider the conditions upon which new initiatives are established. Equally, local authorities need to be fully in the driving seat. Reluctant to do so until now, the government has recently initiated a Functional Review of the Rule of Law Sector and Justice 2020. Their agendas have not progressed much in the absence of political will, and undefined roles and agendas remain between the local authorities and EU. Any new initiatives should be launched based on certain principles that ensure they have full local ownership, are driven by local demand, are based on in-depth evaluation and verification, build upon broad consultations and inclusion, have a clearly defined role and scope, have realistic expectations and contribute to streamlining the reform agendas.
Topic:
Reform, European Union, Rule of Law, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

35. Budgetary Sanctions as a Mechanism to Protect the Rule of Law in the EU

Author:
Marta Makowska and Melchior Szczepanik
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
In the draft multiannual financial framework (MFF) 2021-2027, the European Commission (EC) proposed a political conditionality mechanism through which EU funds could be suspended for countries violating the rule of law. If implemented, it would grant the EC new powers to control the condition of the rule of law in Member States, but it is based on imprecise criteria. Even though the EC has declared that the mechanism is designed to discipline state institutions responsible for breaches, it could be damaging mainly to the final beneficiaries of the funds.
Topic:
Sanctions, Budget, European Union, and Rule of Law
Political Geography:
Europe

36. The Dawn of Article 18 ECHR: A Safeguard Against European Rule of Law Backsliding?

Author:
Floris Tan
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Goettingen Journal of International Law
Institution:
The Goettingen Journal of International Law
Abstract:
This article examines an underexplored avenue for the protection of the rule of law in Europe: Article 18 of the European Convention on Human Rights. This provision prohibits States from restricting the rights enshrined in the European Convention for any other purpose than provided for in the Convention. In this contribution, the author argues, based on a combination of textual, systematic and purposive interpretations of Article 18, that the provision is meant to safeguard against rule of law backsliding, in particular because governmental restrictions of human rights under false pretenses present a clear danger to the principles of legality and the supremacy of law. Such limitations of rights under the guise of legitimate purposes go against the assumption of good faith underlying the Convention, which presupposes that all States share a common goal of reinforcing human rights and the rule of law. Article 18 could therefore function as an early warning that European States are at risk of becoming an illiberal democracy or even of reverting to totalitarianism and the destruction of the rule of law. The article then goes on to assess the extent to which the European Court’s case-law reflects and realizes this aim of rule of law protection, and finds that whereas the Court’s earlier case-law left very little room for an effective application of Article 18, the November 2017 Grand Chamber judgment in Merabishvili v. Georgia has made large strides in effectuating the provision’s raison d’être. As the article shows, however, even under this new interpretation, challenges remain.
Topic:
Human Rights, International Law, and Rule of Law
Political Geography:
Europe

37. Integrity on Trial: Judicial reform in Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova

Author:
Steven Blockmans, Nadejda Hriptievschi, Viacheslav Panasiuk, and Ekaterine Zguladze
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Under the terms of their Association Agreements with the EU, Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova are expected to strengthen the independence of the judiciary, establish zero tolerance of corruption in the legal profession, and reform legislation regarding prosecutors, judges and lawyers. The EU is keen to identify and build upon existing positive sources of resilience, as well as to track and respond to vulnerabilities with the mix of instruments and budgets at its disposal. It is taking a differentiated approach to improving relations with its neighbouring countries. In the case of Georgia, this raises the question of whether the radical overhaul of the Saakashvili-era reforms can withstand the corruptive practices of narrow-minded political and economic operators. In Ukraine, the challenge is how to prolong and channel the positive reform dynamic to firmly anchor institutional and procedural change in the justice sector. In Moldova, the issue is rather to insulate the pockets of successful reform while supporting drivers of change in their fight against illiberal forces. This study identifies innovations in the three associated states’ justice sectors. It analyses changes to both the ‘hardware’ of the justice system, i.e. the constitutional and institutional frameworks, and the ‘software’, i.e. the selection, appointment, promotion and disciplinary procedures and other means to fight corruption in the justice sector. It concludes with a review of existing court practice with the AA/DCFTAs. By doing so, the paper not only gauges national judges’ awareness about the need to enforce their country’s contractual obligations with the EU, it also offers insights into the degree of domestic courts’ openness to use international/European law to put an end to conflicting national rules and bad practices.
Topic:
Corruption, Reform, European Union, Rule of Law, and Judiciary
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia