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1. Rule of law: the uncertain gamble on conditionality

Author:
Eric Maurice
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
Will 2023 be the year when Hungary and Poland join the ranks of Member States that respect the values of the European Union? Nothing is less certain because, in Budapest as in Warsaw, the reforms demanded by the Union have not yet been implemented. In early February Polish president Andrzej Duda, referred a law which was supposed to bring an end to disciplinary abuses against judges to the Constitutional Court. The Hungarian government has still not completed reforms to make public procurement more transparent and to strengthen the fight against corruption. The fact that these measures are being discussed indicates however that the balance of power has changed. 2022 was a pivotal year in the European Union's efforts to combat breaches of the rule of law in its Member States. For the first time, a range of new and old tools, specific or not, structural or conjunctural, were used to try to reverse the trend that has been developing for several years, mainly in Hungary and Poland, of undermining the independence of the judiciary, systems of checks and balances, and certain rights that are considered fundamental.
Topic:
European Union, Rule of Law, Judiciary, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, Poland, Romania, and Hungary

2. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: Unity is good, but ambition is better

Author:
Sophie Pornschlegel and Ilke Toygür
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
In view of the volatile geopolitical environment, EU leaders no longer have the luxury of waiting for all 27 member states to find a consensus. In order to lead the way to a Union that is apt for future challenges, the EU should become more ambitious and embrace alternatives, such as differentiated integration, in the coming months and years. Rather than returning to the status quo ante, the EU should use this momentum to progress in five policy fields: economic governance, with a new recovery package and a reform of the fiscal rules; security and defence, with improved EU–NATO cooperation and a stronger ‘European pillar’; energy policy, by quickly steering member states away from dependence on Russian fossil fuels while simultaneously ensuring admissible energy prices for consumers and respecting the climate targets; enlargement and neighbourhood policy, by rethinking its aims and creating options for countries that are unlikely to become EU members in the foreseeable future; and the rule of law, to safeguard the Union’s values ‘at home’. Both the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion revealed that the EU institutions and leaders are capable of managing crises swiftly and decisively. This reality certainly increases its legitimacy in the eyes of its citizens as well as its allies. The European Union could use this moment of change to increase its ambition for reforms and for moving European integration forward. This should encourage leaders to think about all the options for designing the Union’s future. This is not a time for black and white thinking – Treaty change or nothing –, but rather a time to explore all the shades of grey for securing necessary reforms. If like-minded countries could lead the way, others may also follow. The changing and evolving positions in the EU could help secure more inclusive alliances for moving forward. The political momentum to do so is finally here.
Topic:
Security, Energy Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, Economy, Rule of Law, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

3. What should the EU do about Hungary’s illiberal turn?

Author:
Perle Petit
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
Since 2010, Hungary’s government has followed a clear and deliberate trajectory away from EU democratic principles, turning the country into the first illiberal state in the Union. Before Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Hungary’s illiberal turn remained relatively self-contained at the national level. Since the start of the war, however, this illiberalism has spread to the international arena, dramatically impeding EU institutional decision-making processes. Despite the urgency of the matter, the EU’s failure to address the country’s democratic decline has been evident. The EU institutions need to address the national and international impact of Hungary's flouting of democratic norms by proposing both short- and long-term solutions. To do so, the institutions should take the following actions: The EU Commission should stand fully behind the triggering of the rule of law conditionality mechanism against Hungary and insist that the country implements all proposed remedial measures in a legislatively binding way. A periodic review system must be put in place to avoid any reversal of these measures or manipulation of independent public bodies in the coming years. The rule of law conditionality mechanism should be triggered against other infringing countries, to demonstrate a zero-tolerance approach to democratic backsliding. The suspension of EU funds should be harmonised across different funding schemes. In this way, the Commission can avoid becoming compromised by disconnected conditionality mechanisms. Increased capabilities and powers should be conferred to independent EU organisations, such as the European Anti-Fraud Office and the European Public Prosecutor’s Office. These should review the strength of democratic institutions in backsliding countries and provide recommendations for reform. The institutions should look into the regional disbursement of EU budgets, bypassing central governments to allocate funds on a regional basis. The Council should consider replacing the unanimity rule with qualified majority voting to render EU decision-making processes more effective and to prevent single member states from holding EU decisions ‘hostage’. As Hungary’s leadership shows no signs of changing course, the EU should change tactics to actively preserve and protect democracy within its borders. The EU institutions should use the full toolbox at their disposal to halt Hungary’s illiberal turn, restore the independence of democratic institutions, and take long-term steps to prevent any further backsliding within the Union.
Topic:
European Union, Rule of Law, European Commission, Illiberalism, and Viktor Orbán
Political Geography:
Europe and Hungary

4. The EU-Turkey Visa Liberalization Saga: Lessons from the European Neighborhood

Author:
Ioannis N. Grigoriadis and Ayşe Tuba Uslu
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
This policy paper co-authored by Ioannis Grigoriadis, Senior Research Fellow of ELIAMEP and Head of its Turkey Programme, and Ayşe Tuba Uslu, Senior at the Department of International Relations of Bilkent University, lays out the main challenges for the successful conclusion of the Visa Liberalization Dialogue (VLD) between the European Union and Turkey. It examines the impact of democratic backsliding, the decline of the rule of law, fundamental rights and divergence in the legal framework regarding organized crime and anti-terrorism on the VLD and highlights the mistrust that has developed between the parties. Through a comparison between Ukrainian, Georgian, Moldovan and Turkish VLDs, it aims to highlight how the VLD could come to a successful conclusion.
Topic:
Human Rights, Migration, Rule of Law, Visa, and Liberalization
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, Moldova, Middle East, Georgia, and Mediterranean

5. Public Administration in the era of Covid-19: Policy Responses and Reforms underway

Author:
Manto Lampropoulou
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Covid-19 has caused an unprecedented shock to the state apparatus and has triggered major reforms in the administrative system of Greece. Policy responses to the pandemic have brought about several positive changes towards the modernization and de-bureaucratization of public administration. However, the pace and scale of change vary significantly. The pandemic has acted as a strong driver for the digital transformation of the public sector and the strengthening of e-government policies. Numerous administrative procedures were streamlined, digitalized and simplified, working conditions have become more flexible and several improvements have taken place in service delivery and state-citizen relations. The observed centralisation of decision-making and the often use of fast-track procedures have raised questions of democratic control, transparency and the rule of law, while the emergency measureshave been criticized for the threats they pose for the protection of citizens’ rights, individual liberties and personal data. A key challenge remains the integration the emergency measures of the covid-19 policy agenda into a longer-term programme of administrative reform in the post-covid era.
Topic:
Reform, Democracy, Rule of Law, Public Policy, Transparency, COVID-19, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

6. The Lie Detector and the Stories about It: Narrative of the Fight against Organised Crime in the Function of Capturing the State

Author:
Marija Pavlovic, Bojan Elek, and Milos Jovanovic
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
How the narrative of the fight against organised crime is used to capture the state? Find out in the latest BCSP analysis. The objective of this report is to analyze the narrative of the fight against organised crime, i.e., the story the authorities are offering the public concerning this topic, for the purpose of establishing how it is used to capture the state. More precisely, the analysis attempts to explain how the polygraph was abused during the declared war on mafia to suspend judicial institutions, ‘cleanse’ some in the eyes of the public or criminalise others outside the statutory criminal procedure, and to identify the consequences of this approach to fighting organised crime. The so-called war on mafia officially began on 19 October 2020, when the President of Serbia used his Instagram profile to announce the final showdown between the state and organised crime. Set forth after a series of unsolved murders that had taken place on the streets of Serbian cities – characterised by experts mostly as mafia-style terminations – it initially looked like a marketing move that preceded the constitution of a new Government. Such understanding was supported by the fact that this was not the first time that government officials declared war on organised criminal groups. Former Minister of the Interior [MoI] declared a similar war almost four years earlier, under similar circumstances. One hero particularly stood out in this war. It was the lie detector, the omnipotent polygraph, used extensively in the previous months as the supreme arbiter of truth. Instead of lengthy court proceedings, complex investigations and obtaining evidence acceptable to the court, the polygraph was used by the highest state officials as a simple tool to directly prove to the citizens whether someone was telling the truth or lying, and to unmistakably determine guilt or innocence. Trials were replaced by media performances involving debates on who passed the lie detector test and who refused to take it, while politicians kept offering to be subjected to it or calling each other out for not doing the same thing, all in the name of the alleged fight against organised crime.
Topic:
Media, Rule of Law, Police, Judiciary, and Organized Crime
Political Geography:
Europe and Serbia

7. The Crime-Politics Nexus Entrapping The Balkans

Author:
Bojan Elek and Giorgio Fruscione
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
We are presenting you the Dossier on organized crime in the Balkans, produced in cooperation between the Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI) and Belgrade Centre for Security Policy. In some of the countries of the Western Balkans, criminal groups and political elites have grown increasingly interdependent. In particular, Serbia’s and Montenegro’s societies have suffered the most from these links. The two countries have long been considered frontrunners in the EU integration process, whose final completion, however, is difficult to foresee. Similarly, Albania’s EU negotiating process has also been delayed for years, in part because of the country’s role in global drug trafficking schemes. The crime-politics nexus is contributing to the erosion of the rule of law in several Balkan countries, where the risk – or reality – of state capture is increasingly worrisome. In light of recent events, Serbia appears to be the most concerning case as its authoritarian drift currently seems hard to reverse. Which consequences does the situation in Serbia have on other Balkan countries? What impact does state capture have on regional stability? And what is changing for the region’s integration prospects with the EU?
Topic:
Security, Crime, Rule of Law, Organized Crime, and State Capture
Political Geography:
Europe and Serbia

8. What Rule of Law for the European Union? – Tracing the Approaches of the EU Institutions

Author:
Justyna Maliszewska-Nienartowicz and Marcin Kleinowski
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
Although the rule of law is a normative notion, it requires a multidimensional approach. It speaks to important issues of law and politics, and its respect is essential for both legal and social security. It can be observed within the European Union (EU) where the issue of respect for the rule of law by its Member States has gained particular importance. The main goal of our study is to contribute to the academic discourse concerning the EU rule of law. The analysis particularly considers the approaches adopted by the EU institutions to the definition of this concept. Consequently, the first part of the article concentrates on difficulties in defining the rule of law. The second part presents the evolution of the Court of Justice approach toward this concept. The next part contains the analysis of the attitudes presented by other EU institutions in their documents. In the conclusions, it is underlined that although the approaches of the EU institutions towards the rule of have evolved, and they have tried to define it and indicate its main components, certain issues require clarification, e.g., the relations of the rule of law with other values.
Topic:
International Cooperation, European Union, Rule of Law, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Europe

9. 2023: Turning Moment for European Energy Policy toward Balkans and the European Promotion of the Rule of Law

Author:
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:
The year 2023 is likely to bring congruence of events that may cause a “perfect storm” of breaking down security of energy supply, fragile political stability in the Balkans and its unsustainable social contract. As the region grows fragmented from mid-1960’s till nowadays, very few economic forces remain the EU than among themselves. The terms of trade favor imports against exports. After 20 years of infrastructure development and integration efforts, with support of donors and creditors, despite small improvements; Logistic Performance Index (LPI) for the Balkan countries remains slightly over half of best performers such as Germany. Port resources in place that may cause such impact to entire region in the given moment of time. Cross border trade in goods and services is negligibly small. Countries trade more with the rest of are not allocated in line with the commercial practice. That is not good enough for the region that links Mediterranean with the landlocked Danube area. Travel time along major railway routes (Zagreb – Belgrade or Belgrade -Bar) are twice longer than during 1980’s. Belgrade Port, that is the key destination for transport with all sea ports in the region is constrained by the city planning and kept below minimum throughput to be reported in European inland port statistics. Croatia, Montenegro or Albania, are hardly in position to engage into trade as their ports operate far below competitive thresholds. The transactions are prohibitively expensive.
Topic:
Energy Policy, International Cooperation, Infrastructure, European Union, and Rule of Law
Political Geography:
Europe and Balkans

10. Rule of Law Diplomacy: Why the EU Needs to Become More Vocal in Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine

Author:
Laura Gelhaus, Pavel Havlíček, and Stefan Meister
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Supporting the rule of law has been central to the EU’s Eastern Partnership (EaP) policy since 2009. There has been very limited success in this, however. The EU’s core problem is what is usually its strength: addressing a highly politicized area through a technical approach. EU policymakers need to acknowledge that their political silence is permitting ruling elites in EaP countries to block progress in the rule of law and that the EU is failing to call out pervasive systems of informality there.
Topic:
Diplomacy, European Union, Partnerships, and Rule of Law
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, and United States of America