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1941. Learning from Tumultuous Times: An Analysis of Vulnerable Sectors in International Trade in the Context of the Corona Health Crisis

Author:
Oliver Reiter and Robert Stehrer
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic marks an unprecedented shock to global growth and trade and brought international dependencies into the spotlight. This triggered discussions on resilience and robustness of global value chains. In this paper we assess which products can be considered as vulnerable to trade shocks at the global level – referred to as ‘risky’ products – by constructing a ‘product riskiness indicator’ for 4700 globally traded products based on components such as market concentration, clustering tendencies, network centrality of players, or international substitutability. In a second step the bilateral imports of risky products are matched to multi-country input-output tables enabling the analysis of the importance of internationally sourced risky products by country and using industries. Higher-tech industries are more prone to supply-chain vulnerability given the large share of risky products in high-tech product categories. Third, we apply a ‘partial global extraction method’ to assess the GDP impact of reshoring. Assuming that imports of risky products are re-shored from non-EU27 to EU27 countries suggests an increase in the EU27 GDP of up to 0.5%. The non-EU27 countries lose from such re-shoring activities accordingly. This suggests that it is also in the interest of the supplier countries and industries to assure robust or at least resilient supply chains. Finally, selected policy aspects in the context of the envisaged EU Open Strategic Autonomy are debated.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, European Union, Economic Growth, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

1942. To Grow or Not to Grow: Belarus and Lithuania

Author:
Thorvaldur Gylfason and Eduard Hochreiter
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
We compare the economic growth performance of Belarus and Lithuania since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Our interest in this country pair is driven by the two countries´ interwoven histories as well as by the fact that Belarus remains autocratic and strongly tied to Russia, while Lithuania has reinvented itself as a democratic market economy fully integrated into the EU. Our aim is to better understand the extent to which the growth differential between the two countries can be traced to increased efficiency, i.e., total factor productivity, in the use of capital and other resources via, inter alia, better institutions (intensive growth) as opposed to sheer accumulation of capital (extensive growth), the hallmark of Soviet economic growth. To this end, we compare the development of some key determinants of growth in the two countries since the 1990s. A simple growth accounting model suggests that advances in education at all levels, good governance, and institutional reforms have played a more significant role in raising economic output and efficiency in Lithuania than in Belarus, which remains marred by problems related to weak governance as well as autocratic rule. Further, as in Estonia and Latvia, the EU perspective has made a significant contribution to growth in Lithuania. The Russian connection has done less for Belarus. Finally, we touch upon the impact of the corona virus on the economies of the two countries.
Topic:
European Union, Economy, Economic Growth, Post-Soviet Space, and Autocracy
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Lithuania, and Belarus

1943. Production and Trade of ICT from an EU Perspective

Author:
Amat Adarov, Dimitrios Exadaktylos, Mahdi Ghodsi, Robert Stehrer, and Roman Stöllinger
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
The competitiveness of industries and countries is shaped more and more by technological advancement in the production and use of information and communications technology (ICT). This report considers the supply side of ICT goods and services. It studies the drivers of ICT production location and trade across countries with a focus on the relative position of the EU. The analyses clearly indicate that the EU must step up its efforts to accelerate the shift towards digital production and strengthening the ICT sector that produces the required technologies and services. In addition, from a trade policy perspective, a harmonised set of standards and regulatory framework is to be aimed at to minimise mismatches in technical specifications and requirements. This will lead to the diffusion of positive externalities and should allow for a smooth operation of the global value chains in these products.
Topic:
Communications, European Union, Trade, Information Technology, Digitalization, and Production
Political Geography:
Europe

1944. EU Employment Dynamics: The Pandemic Years and Beyond

Author:
Stefan Jestl and Robert Stehrer
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
The economic shock induced by the pandemic has plunged European economies into a recession. Lockdowns and social distancing measures have affected economic life in a substantial way, with industries and population groups facing varying difficulties. This study explores potential future employment dynamics across European industries and employment groups for the period up to 2026 by drawing on past sectoral trends and the latest macroeconomic forecast results from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Commission. A scenario analysis is also carried out, taking into account the great uncertainty and risks that are related to the baseline forecasts.
Topic:
Labor Issues, European Union, Employment, COVID-19, and Economic Recovery
Political Geography:
Europe

1945. Economic Sentiment Indicators and Foreign Direct Investment: Empirical Evidence from European Union Countries

Author:
Andrzej Cieślik and Mahdi Ghodsi
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
This paper studies the role of business sentiment in the decisions of multinational enterprises (MNEs) to undertake foreign direct investment (FDI) across European Union (EU) member states. Based on the knowledge-capital model, the study employs the Pseudo Poisson Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator and panel data to examine empirically the determinants of FDI across EU member states during the period 2003-2017. The empirical evidence suggests that better economic sentiment in an EU Member State induces MNEs to undertake FDI in that country, while worse economic sentiment in an EU member state motivates an MNE in that country to invest abroad.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Foreign Direct Investment, European Union, Business, and Multinational Corporations
Political Geography:
Europe

1946. Northern Ireland’s 100th Birthday

Author:
Brendan O'Leary
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
On 23 December 2020, Northern Ireland turned one hundred years old— that is, if its birthday is dated by the ratification of the Government of Ireland Act by King George V. Officially titled “An Act for the better Government of Ireland,” it became known to Irish nationalists and republicans as the partition act.1 The U.K. Parliament passed the act without a single vote in its favor from a member of Parliament elected in Ireland. The proposed British “solution” to Ireland’s right to self-determination was the invention of two Irelands, “Northern Ireland” and “Southern Ireland,” each scheduled to be a devolved government within the Union of Great Britain and Ireland. The proposal was enacted during what we Irish call the “War of Independence.”2
Topic:
Politics, History, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Europe and North Ireland

1947. The Rise and Fall of Golden Dawn: Organized Racism Suffered a Great Defeat in Greece—But the Fight is Far from Over

Author:
Eleni Takou
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
Golden Dawn was already a violent, marginal, neo-Nazi group in the 1980s. But how did it become a regulator of Greece’s political life? The economic crisis that plagued Greek society in 2010, the lack of a consistent migration policy, as well as the state’s (and other institutional actors’) reluctance to acknowledge its extreme far-right past and address xenophobia and racist crime, led to the group’s consolidation. In 2010, Golden Dawn gained a seat on the Athens municipal council. In the 2012 general election, it took almost 7 percent of the vote, electing 21 MPs.1 Many mark this as the starting point of Golden Dawn’s presence in Greece; however, this approach alone leads to a narrow and historically inac- curate interpretation of extremist far-right violence in Greece.
Topic:
Elections, Far Right, Racism, and Golden Dawn
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

1948. Are European Migration Policies Racist?

Author:
Pastore Ferruccio
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
Are European migration policies racist? In times of spreading politiciza- tion of any migration-related issue, such a question may sound rhetorical and partisan. It is not; or at least, not necessarily. Millions of actual and potential migrants and a growing number of decision-makers in migrant-sending countries are earnestly asking this question or close variants of it. If only for this reason, this question becomes a relevant factor in international relations and, as such, it requires evidence-based answers. To answer this question, some historical background is needed. This is why I will start with a brief appraisal of the transition from the colonial to the post- colonial migration regimes of European countries. In particular, I will consider migration policies adopted toward Africa, which forms the key empirical case for my investigation.
Topic:
Migration, History, Colonialism, and Racism
Political Geography:
Europe

1949. Absolutely Corrupted: The Rise of an Illiberal System and The Future of Hungarian Democracy

Author:
Anna Júlia Donáth
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
“Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.”1 Lord John Dalberg-Acton’s words should not be relevant in the era of modern democracy, when political power is distributed and filtered through the institu- tions of checks and balances. Absolute power should simply be off the table. Yet, as shown by the events unfolding in Hungary in the last decade, democratic institutions can be transformed into mere façades that obscure the grim reality of unchecked power in the hands of one person. In the case of Hungary, this man is Viktor Orbán, the leader of Hungary’s dominant right-wing party.
Topic:
Corruption, Democracy, Far Right, and Illiberalism
Political Geography:
Europe and Hungary

1950. Academic Freedom: A Test and a Tool for Illiberalism, Neoliberalism, and Liberal Democracy

Author:
András L. Pap
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
Using the case study of Hungary, this article investigates the status and role of academic freedom in (neo)liberal democracies and illiberal regimes. Here, academic freedom is gauged in three dimensions: teaching, research, and publishing (cultivated at research institutes and universities). The inquiry begins with an overview of academic freedom under Viktor Orbán’s Hungary. This case study provides a snapshot of how academic freedom can be curtailed in a hybrid illiberal regime. The article’s second half provides an assessment of the three contextual dimensions through which the case study may be relevant—particularly for a social science and international affairs audience. The first context shows how the second phase of emerging authoritarian regimes target cultural life as a soft tool to cement and solidify illiberalism once the capture of constitutional institu- tions has been accomplished. The second context refers to the role and ambition of international instruments to sustain autocracies in the making. The case of the Hungarian government’s entanglement with the European Union (EU), Council of Europe’s Venice Commission, and the European Court of Human Rights documents the institutional inability of multilevel constitutional organs to administer ex-post restorative constitutional justice. It also points to the ten- dency of these organs to experiment with “Al Capone”-like judicial strategies in referring to the breach of equal treatment and General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) commitments to disguise inadequate rule of law shortcomings.
Topic:
Democracy, Neoliberalism, Illiberalism, and Academic Freedom
Political Geography:
Europe and Hungary