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1. Green Defence: the defence and military implications of climate change for Europe

Author:
Ben Barry and Shiloh Fetzek
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Climate change is a national security threat to Europe. It is an accelerator of conflict and requires European forces to adapt accordingly. Concurrently, armed forces can help mitigate climate change by reducing their greenhouse-gas emissions. For states that plan to reduce carbon emissions, decarbonisation of armed forces without disarming will be a challenge. This new report assesses not only the implications for European armed forces of operating in climate changed worlds, but also the opportunities for reducing carbon footprint from new technologies. It assesses the challenges of implementing the necessary changes to military operations, training and capability and identifies success factors for this essential transformation.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Environment, Science and Technology, Armed Forces, and Green Technology
Political Geography:
Europe

2. Separating electricity from gas prices through Green Power Pools: Design options and evolution

Author:
Michael Grubb and Drummond Pike
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
This paper develops a detailed proposal for an efficient way to channel the value of large-scale renewables, which have become much cheaper than gas-driven wholesale electricity prices, to consumers at ‘cost-plus’ prices. This would reduce the fiscal pressure on governments for market- wide subsidies and offer more stable support for consumers most in need. We detail how this ‘green power pool’ approach could interact with the wholesale market to ensure firm power, also bringing transparency to the cost of balancing the variable renewables output, and maintaining incentives for efficient supply and demand responses. We illustrate the approach with reference to the cost and volume trajectories of UK renewables backed by government CfDs, targeted initially to particular consumer groups, as a first step in a wider transition towards direct consumer access to cheap renewables.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Green Technology, Renewable Energy, and Energy Crisis
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

3. Harnessing EU-Kenya renewable energy relations for a bright future

Author:
Akash Ramnath and Louise Van Schaik
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Unlike many of its neighbours, Kenya is progressing towards universal electrification from 100% renewable sources as set out by the country’s Vision 2030 Agenda. This feat, however, does not mean that there are not areas for improvement of its energy profile, especially around grid resilience, energy access and mitigating fluctuating supply and volatile prices. The EU stands poised to help this strengthening, not only due to the bloc’s leading presence in the Kenyan energy transition, but also because of growing geopolitical competition in Africa. The EU aims to beat its competitors in the field of green technologies. Moreover, as part of the external dimension of the European Green Deal the EU aims to avoid further carbon lock-ins, strengthen the ability of countries like Kenya to meet their Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement and boost the EU’s international influence and visibility. This policy brief enumerates opportunities and offers recommendations for the evolution of EU-Kenya relations in the field of renewable energy.
Topic:
European Union, Green Technology, Renewable Energy, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Kenya, Africa, and Europe

4. The EU Green Deal and Its Industrial and Political Significance

Author:
Hosuk Lee-Makiyama
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
The European Green Deal, the flagship initiative of the incumbent European Commission, aims to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 55% by 2030 (from the current target of cutting 40% of 1990 levels) by overhauling fiscal, trading and regulatory regimes. Brussels is well-placed to deliver the interregional distribution or the minutiae of technical regulations that this challenge calls for. Energy diversification is also central to EU competitiveness and strategic autonomy. But this initiative is not costless: its official impact assessment points to a GDP loss of additional -0.3 to -0.7%, by 2030, relative to the previous level of ambition. The full loss could be up to -2.5%. These costs are also unevenly, and the inability to cushion asymmetrical shocks have nearly torn the Union apart in the past. A carbon-neutral Europe could also make losers out of today’s winners among stakeholders and give the EU a significantly different industrial structure, forcing over-exporting Northern Europe into reforms that are probably overdue. Most importantly, the gap between the financing needed and the financing available is unprecedented. The success of the European Green Deal and a cost-efficient transition hinge on the rapid and effective mobilisation of investments – as the diffusion period for new energy-related technology is 40-50 years. Therefore, a smart climate policy does not just distribute costs and investments between different groups, but also over time: The investments are needed now, if we are to reap their benefits before 2050.
Topic:
Environment, Industrial Policy, International Political Economy, European Union, Green Technology, Sustainability, and Green Deal
Political Geography:
Europe

5. A Euro-Mediterranean Green Deal? Towards A Green Economy In The Southern Mediterranean

Author:
Julia Choucair Vizoso
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
The transition to a green economy requires nothing short of a major, structural transformation of economic models, domestic and global. The scale and pace of the change needed and the high level of uncertainty require bold commitments, cooperation, innovation and experimentation across sectors, stakeholders and countries – a fierce challenge for the globe, well beyond the shores of the Mediterranean. Each chapter in this study includes domain-specific and country- specific findings and proposes recommendations on how to accelerate the green economy in the particular context. Due to the social, economic and political heterogeneity in the region, it is obvious that a “one size fits all” solution is not suitable. Nonetheless, common findings and recommendations do emerge across the case studies.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Green Technology, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Middle East, and Mediterranean

6. The geopolitics of the energy transition: Global issues and European policies driving the development of renewable energy

Author:
Marco Siddi
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Fighting climate change makes a green energy transition imperative. The transition will have significant geopolitical consequences, notably a shift of power away from fossil fuel producers that do not adapt to a decarbonizing world. Access to critical minerals, rare earth elements and storage technology for renewable energy applications will be essential, and will determine the new geopolitics of energy. Some critical elements such as cobalt are only found in a few areas of the globe. Hydrogen is a carbon-free energy carrier that will allow the storage and dispatch of energy produced by intermittent renewable sources such as solar and wind. While hydrogen trade could lead to new dependencies, it will provide a back-up for the electricity system and strengthen energy security. Currently, China is a leader in securing resources for the energy transition. The Belt and Road Initiative could consolidate its position. As it strives to be a leader in the energy transition, the EU is focusing on securing relevant supply chains, deploying technology and developing hydrogen capacity. International cooperation will accelerate the transition and give the world a chance to avoid catastrophic climate change.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Environment, Green Technology, Renewable Energy, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

7. Updating the European industrial strategy for the post-pandemic world

Author:
Marta Pilati and Frederico Mollet
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
On 27 April, the European Commission is expected to publish an update to their 2020 Industrial Strategy, a blueprint for an assertive European industrial policy that drives the digital and green transitions. While the current strategy’s broad principles continue to hold, it must now adapt to the post-pandemic world’s challenges. Furthermore, the original strategy only provided a high-level roadmap, with many areas requiring further development. Frederico Mollet and Marta Pilati break down European industry’s weaknesses and potential areas of success, the effects of COVID-19 this past year, key points of the 2020 Industrial Strategy and its relevance for Europe and beyond. They outline 16 recommendations which would strengthen the design and implementation of the programmes outlined in the current strategy, across four themes: finance, industrial ecosystems and alliances, technology transfer, and strategic autonomy.
Topic:
Development, Political Economy, European Union, Digital Economy, Green Technology, Industry, COVID-19, Strategic Autonomy, and European Commission
Political Geography:
Europe

8. Recovery and reform in the EU’s most vulnerable regions

Author:
Alison Hunter and Marta Pilati
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
Europe’s most vulnerable regions, characterised by persistent low growth and poverty, face a systemic lack of specific EU support. These regions display particularly high levels of vulnerability to the social, economic and territorial impacts of COVID-19, which will affect their recovery trajectories. They risk being left further behind in the EU’s complex pathway towards ‘a green and digital recovery’. The Union’s lack of focus and action for investing in these most vulnerable regions must be addressed. First and foremost, EU institutions and member states should recognise that some territories will struggle much more than others in their recovery trajectories. Ignoring their plight would have potentially far-reaching consequences. The EU’s ‘convergence machine’ could be damaged irreparably, with long-term – and potentially political – consequences. Alison Hunter and Marta Pilati continue their extensive research on the Union’s low-growth, poor regions, calling for the founding of a specific EU initiative to support them as well as further targeting by the existing policy architecture. In particular, they recommend: creating an EU policy space for regions experiencing long-term low growth and poverty, to promote the value and visibility of place-based support; aligning Cohesion Policy and the Recovery and Resilience Facility for improved policy coherence and greater investment impact; and tailoring support for growth-enhancing reforms in the EU’s most vulnerable regions. The EU’s green and digital recovery strategy fails to account for the specific needs of its poor and low-growth regions. Existing disparities and fragmentation challenges across the Union could widen or even become entrenched, casting new doubts on the EU’s ability and commitment to strengthen its convergence agenda and execute a just transition. The fallout could lead to a rise in territorial and political tensions while leaving many vulnerable places behind. Hunter and Pilati outline an agenda for a new EU initiative that champions reform support for these vulnerable territories and improves their prospects for a digital and green recovery.
Topic:
Political Economy, Poverty, Reform, European Union, Digital Economy, Economic Growth, Green Technology, Recovery, COVID-19, and Economic Recovery
Political Geography:
Europe

9. A transition for the citizens? Ensuring public participation in the European Green Deal

Author:
Francesca Colli
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The EU acknowledges that citizen participation in the European Green Deal is vital to ensure the legitimacy of policies and public buy-in for climate measures. This policy brief examines specific options for public participation in policymaking – stakeholder consultation, citizens’ assemblies and local projects – and discusses the extent to which each is already included in the European Green Deal. Although the most effective public participation takes place at national, regional or local level, it should nonetheless be encouraged or coordinated by the EU. Currently, the mechanisms established by the EU appear to blend different types of public participation; however, a key issue that remains to be addressed is reaching groups that may otherwise be overlooked or fall through the cracks – particularly those with the most to lose in the transition.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Public Opinion, Green Technology, and Participation
Political Geography:
Europe

10. UK Green Growth Index

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Our UK Green Growth Index, produced on behalf of Lloyds Banking Group, assesses the degree to which each UK nation and region may be impacted by the challenges of the net zero transition, and how well placed they are to capitalise on green growth. The transition to net zero will require substantial investment and adaptation across the UK economy. This will create unique opportunities for British businesses to innovate, produce, and supply the goods and services needed to enable the transition, not only in the UK but globally. At the same time, for many parts of the economy the transition will create challenges due to the need to adapt products, processes, and skills. Our UK Green Growth Index, produced on behalf of Lloyds Banking Group, assesses the degree to which each UK nation and region may be impacted by these challenges, and how well placed they are to capitalise on green growth. Our research suggests that green growth opportunities are especially strong in Scotland, given its existing base of green economy activity and its access to a workforce with relevant skills. Similarly, Wales appears well placed to capitalise on green growth opportunities, although it may face greater disruption in the nearer term due to its reliance on high emitting industries. Northern Ireland is also relatively exposed to disruption and may need to accelerate efforts to put in place the factors needed to fully exploit green economy opportunities. Amongst English regions, the South East and South West appear to be best placed to capitalise on the green economy and are less exposed to disruption from the transition than many other parts of the UK. In contrast, Yorkshire and the Humber may face greater disruption and has further to go to develop some of the factors needed to capitalise on green growth. London is somewhat of an outlier: its status as a city-region with a service-orientated economy means it is much less exposed to the challenges than areas which rely more on industrial activity, but it also has less scope to capitalise on green economy opportunities in fields such as manufacturing and energy (although it is well positioned to develop as a centre for green finance and other professional services).
Topic:
Environment, International Trade and Finance, Economic Growth, and Green Technology
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

11. Book Talk. Klimat: Russia in the Age of Climate Change by Thane Gustafson

Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
The Harriman Institute
Abstract:
Please join the Harriman Institute for a presentation by Thane Gustafson, author of Klimat: Russia in the Age of Climate Change (Harvard University Press, 2021). Moderated by Kimberly Marten (Harriman Institute). Russia will be one of the countries most affected by climate change. No major power is more economically dependent on the export of hydrocarbons; at the same time, two-thirds of Russia’s territory lies in the arctic north, where melting permafrost is already imposing growing damage. Climate change also brings drought and floods to Russia’s south, threatening the country’s agricultural exports. Thane Gustafson predicts that, over the next thirty years, climate change will leave a dramatic imprint on Russia. The decline of fossil fuel use is already underway, and restrictions on hydrocarbons will only tighten, cutting fuel prices and slashing Russia’s export revenues. Yet Russia has no substitutes for oil and gas revenues. The country is unprepared for the worldwide transition to renewable energy, as Russian leaders continue to invest the national wealth in oil and gas while dismissing the promise of post-carbon technologies. Nor has the state made efforts to offset the direct damage that climate change will do inside the country. Optimists point to new opportunities—higher temperatures could increase agricultural yields, the melting of arctic ice may open year-round shipping lanes in the far north, and Russia could become a global nuclear-energy supplier. But the eventual post-Putin generation of Russian leaders will nonetheless face enormous handicaps, as their country finds itself weaker than at any time in the preceding century. Lucid and thought-provoking, Klimat shows how climate change is poised to alter the global order, potentially toppling even great powers from their perches.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Natural Resources, and Green Technology
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe