Political Geography: Ethiopia / Publication Year: within 10 Years

1. Expert Voices: Geopolitical Implications of the Ethiopia-Somaliland Partnership

Author:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Expert Voices: Geopolitical Implications of the Ethiopia-Somaliland Partnership
Topic:: Partnerships, Geopolitics, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Africa, Ethiopia, and Somaliland

2. Civil War between the Ethiopian Government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front: A Challenge to Implement the Responsibility to Protect Doctrine

Author:: Israel Nyaburi Nyadera and Census Osedo
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: How does the 2020–2022 civil war in Ethiopia contribute to our understanding of the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) doctrine? This study seeks to revisit the debate over the effectiveness of the R2P doctrine in the wake of increased intrastate conflicts. The objective is to assess the dilemma that arises with the implementation of R2P when governments are involved in the conflict and the international community is reluctant or unable to intervene. The study adopts the systematic review approach (PRISMA) to identify the shortcomings, trends, and debates around R2P. It uses the Ethiopian civil war to contribute further to the existing body of literature. The paper finds that, indeed, the R2P doctrine is facing serious challenges with its implementation. It shows that when governments fail to acknowledge the other actors as legitimate combatants and instead describe them as terrorist groups, it becomes difficult to uphold the R2P doctrine. The paper also identifies a lack of leadership and coordinated efforts at regional and international levels as contributing factors, which further undermine the effectiveness of R2P. The paper concludes that the Ethiopian civil war exposes serious shortcomings in the R2P doctrine that need to be reviewed and reformed urgently. It proposes the adoption of a systems-thinking approach that can streamline the actors and processes of response during civil wars.
Topic:: Civil War, Human Rights, Conflict, and Responsibility to Protect (R2P)
Political Geography:: Africa, Ethiopia, and Tigray

3. SVAC Explainer: Wartime Sexual Violence in Tigray, Ethiopia, 2020–2021

Author:: Ketaki Zodgekar
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: The Tigray Region is the northernmost part of Ethiopia, bordering Sudan to the west and Eritrea to the north. Struggles over national political power have been occurring in Ethiopia since 1960, when a group of government and military leaders attempted a coup against Emperor Haile Selassie. Though initially successful, this political takeover failed after a month, and the emperor remained in power until 1974, when, in the Ethiopian Revolution, he was usurped by the Derg, a military junta. After the revolution, Ethiopia experienced a devastating civil war between the Derg and anti-government rebels, which concluded in 1991 when a coalition of rebel groups, the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) overthrew the junta, establishing a federal democracy. The EPRDF had four members: the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), which always led the coalition, along with the Amhara Democratic Party (ADP), Oromo Democratic Party (ODP) and the Southern Ethiopian People's Democratic Movement (SEPDM). From 1991 onwards, the EPRDF ruled Ethiopia for 17 years, during which time the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) had leadership over policy design. After widespread protests in 2018 which resulted in the sudden resignation of Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn and a shifting of the EPRDF coalition in 2019, the TPLF lost their control over national politics, though they did remain in power in the Tigray Region. Ethiopia's new Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, who first gained political power by coming up through EPRDF ranks, formed a new political party, the Prosperity Party, that took government from 2019 onwards.
Topic:: War, Gender Based Violence, and Sexual Violence
Political Geography:: Africa, Ethiopia, and Tigray

4. Climate change, mobility and human trafficking in Ethiopia

Author:: Ninna Nyberg Sørensen
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Throughout history, demographic, economic, political, religious, and environmental developments have resulted in Ethiopian mobility, mainly within the country or neighbouring region, but also further afield. Although Ethiopia’s current migration rate is only about half of the sub-Saharan average of 2%, the combined effects of poverty, population growth, conflict, and climate change have led to a recent growth in international migration. Women make up half of these flows. Proximity to the Middle East has facilitated women’s migration for domestic work while simultaneously raised concern over human trafficking violations. International Human Rights and anti-trafficking organisations predict that the negative effects of climate change will increase the vulnerability to trafficking in persons, forced labour, sexual exploitation, and debt bondage. This policy brief draws on research carried out under the auspices of the collaborative ‘Governing Climate Migration’ (GCM) research programme to further explore how climate change, migration and human trafficking may interlink. It questions routine applications of the human trafficking label to irregular Ethiopian migrant domestic workers and suggests replacing it with a migration-trafficking continuum approach that takes life before, during and after migration into account.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Migration, Borders, Risk, and Human Trafficking
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

5. Preliminary Talks: Can the talks in Zanzibar lead to an agreement between Ethiopia and the Oromo Liberation Army?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Peace talks between the Ethiopian government and the Oromo Liberation Army were inaugurated on the Tanzanian island of Zanzibar on April 25, 2023, raised speculation about a possible agreement to end the conflict between both sides, especially given that both parties have expressed their commitment to finding a peaceful resolution to the conflict.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Conflict, Negotiation, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:: Africa, Zanzibar, and Ethiopia

6. Fact Sheet: Crisis in Ethiopia’s Amhara Region

Author:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: Violence is escalating in Amhara region, prompting the government to declare a state of emergency Nearly 30 clashes between government forces and Fano militias were recorded in Amhara last week, with most concentrated in North Wello and West Gojam zones, though fighting has been spread throughout the region. This marks an almost eightfold increase in armed clashes in the region relative to the weekly average since the start of the crisis in April. While Amhara was among the least volatile regions in the country prior to the start of the northern Ethiopia conflict in 2021, it is now one of the most unstable. Persistent insecurity in Amhara poses a significant threat to the federal government, the Abiy administration, and Ethiopia’s stability at large.
Topic:: Security, Political Violence, Non State Actors, Armed Forces, and Instability
Political Geography:: Africa, Ethiopia, and Amhara

7. Ethiopia: Country outlook

Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Economy, Outlook, Forecast, and Overview
Political Geography:: Ethiopia

8. Ethiopia: Briefing sheet

Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics, Summary, Outlook, and Briefing sheet
Political Geography:: Ethiopia

9. Ethiopia: Economic structure

Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Economy, Economic structure, Charts and tables, and Monthly trends charts
Political Geography:: Ethiopia

10. Ethiopia: Political structure

Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics, Summary, and Political structure
Political Geography:: Ethiopia

11. Armed groups’ modes of local engagement and post-conflict (in)stability: Insights from the Ethiopian and Somali civil wars

Author:: Marine Gassier
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: What distinguishes post-war governments that succeed in establishing a stable political order and prevent recurring conflict from those that do not? This comparative study considers the specific threats that typically lead to the collapse of the post-conflict political order to offer new hypotheses on the conditions that affect post-war governments’ ability to sustainably restore stability. The threats considered include (i) fragmentation of the main actors in the conflict, (ii) inadequate demobilization, and (iii) enduring dependence of the post-war government on local brokers. Post-war regimes are more vulnerable to such risks after wars in which the dominant armed groups have established themselves by co-opting local power structures and drawing on existing socio-political networks, as this process redistributes power from the central to the local level. Empirically, this paper uses a novel dataset documenting the practices through which rebel groups may alter local power structures to highlight the connection between this wartime process of transformation and patterns of conflict recurrence. In addition, it contrasts the transition of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front from rebellion to government in Ethiopia in the 1990s with the trajectory of the armed movements in Somalia that also overthrew the incumbent military regime but then failed to establish a viable state.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Armed Forces, Conflict, Post-Conflict, and Instability
Political Geography:: Africa, Ethiopia, and Somalia

12. Working Toward Peaceful Relations between Oromia and Somali Regional States, Ethiopia: Policy Options

Author:: Ketema Debela
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Social Science Research Council
Abstract:: In recent years, Ethiopia has increasingly faced violent conflicts which are intergovernmental, interparty, and interethnic in nature. In this regard, the conflict between Oromia and Somali regional states, which used to be local and confined to border areas prior to 2017, expanded its scale from local to the regional level, from clan to ethnic level. By drawing on research about intergovernmental conflict resolution and peacebuilding between Oromia and the Somali Regional State, this policy brief identifies the root causes of conflict along the borderlands between Oromo and Somali, examines the effectiveness of the measures taken to address the conflict, and recommends key areas for policy interventions to resolve the conflict.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Armed Conflict, Dialogue, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Africa, Ethiopia, Oromia, and Somali Regional State

13. African Media Cultures and Chinese Public Relations Strategies in Kenya and Ethiopia

Author:: Hangwei Li and Yuan Wang
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: China has become a global power, but there is too little debate about how this has happened and what it means. Many argue that China exports its developmental model and imposes it on other countries. But Chinese players also extend their influence by working through local actors and institutions while adapting and assimilating local and traditional forms, norms, and practices. With a generous multiyear grant from the Ford Foundation, Carnegie has launched an innovative body of research on Chinese engagement strategies in seven regions of the world—Africa, Central Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and North Africa, the Pacific, South Asia, and Southeast Asia. Through a mix of research and strategic convening, this project explores these complex dynamics, including the ways Chinese firms are adapting to local labor laws in Latin America, Chinese banks and funds are exploring traditional Islamic financial and credit products in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, and Chinese actors are helping local workers upgrade their skills in Central Asia. These adaptive Chinese strategies that accommodate and work within local realities are mostly ignored by Western policymakers in particular. Ultimately, the project aims to significantly broaden understanding and debate about China’s role in the world and to generate innovative policy ideas. These could enable local players to better channel Chinese energies to support their societies and economies; provide lessons for Western engagement around the world, especially in developing countries; help China’s own policy community learn from the diversity of Chinese experience; and potentially reduce frictions.
Topic:: Development, Media, Public Relations, and Engagement
Political Geography:: Kenya, Africa, China, and Ethiopia

14. Ethiopia: Basic data

Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Summary, Basic Data, Economy, and Background
Political Geography:: Ethiopia

15. R2P Monitor, Issue 67, 1 December 2023

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: R2P Monitor is a quarterly publication applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 67 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Cameroon, Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Haiti, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Myanmar (Burma), Nicaragua, Nigeria, Sudan, Syria, Ukraine, Venezuela, Central African Republic, South Sudan and Yemen.
Topic:: Human Rights, International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, China, Sudan, Ukraine, Israel, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Nicaragua, Haiti, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Mali, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Niger, and Burkina Faso

16. R2P Monitor, Issue 66, 1 September 2023

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: R2P Monitor is a quarterly publication applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 66 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Cameroon, Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Myanmar (Burma), Nicaragua, Nigeria, Sudan, Syria, Ukraine, Venezuela, Central African Republic, Ethiopia, Haiti, South Sudan and Yemen.
Topic:: Human Rights, International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, China, Sudan, Ukraine, Israel, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Nicaragua, Haiti, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Mali, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Niger, and Burkina Faso

17. R2P Monitor, Issue 65, 1 June 2023

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: R2P Monitor is a quarterly publication applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 65 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Cameroon, Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Myanmar (Burma), Nicaragua, Nigeria, Sudan, Syria, Ukraine, Venezuela, Central African Republic, Ethiopia, Mozambique, South Sudan and Yemen.
Topic:: Human Rights, International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, China, Sudan, Ukraine, Israel, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Nicaragua, Mozambique, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Mali, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Niger, and Burkina Faso

18. R2P Monitor, Issue 64, 1 March 2023

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: R2P Monitor is a quarterly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 64 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Myanmar (Burma), Nigeria, Syria, Ukraine, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Mozambique, South Sudan, Sudan and Yemen.
Topic:: Human Rights, International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, China, Sudan, Ukraine, Israel, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Mozambique, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Mali, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Niger, and Burkina Faso

19. A Likely Failure: What are the prospects of success for African Union’s effort to mediate in the Tigray War?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Weeks into resumed fighting between the Ethiopian government and regional rebel militias, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), rivals have agreed to the African Union’s (AU) invitation to sit at the negotiation table, set to be held in Pretoria, South Africa. The first round of negotiations has been delayed, however, indicating tensions and the possibility of returning to armed conflict again.
Topic:: African Union, Mediation, Armed Conflict, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Africa, Ethiopia, and Tigray

20. Regional Expansion: Implications of Al-Shabab's escalation of attacks inside and outside Somalia

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Somalia recently witnessed a remarkable escalation of attacks by the al-Shabab, not only inside Somalia but also in the Horn of Africa, especially in Kenya and Ethiopia, as the terror group is seeking to expand across the region.
Topic:: Non State Actors, Violent Extremism, Al-Shabaab, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Kenya, Africa, Ethiopia, and Somalia

21. Political and Media Analysis on the Tigray Conflict in Ethiopia

Author:: Moses Tofa, Alagaw Ababu Kifle, and Hubert Kinkoh
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: European Institute of Peace (EIP)
Abstract:: This study reviews patterns of domestic and international media reporting and the role of disinformation, misinformation, and media bias in the Tigray conflict, which has been raging since November 2020. Since its outbreak, the conflict has evolved through four broad phases. Throughout these phases, the conflict was characterised by egregious violations of international human rights law, international humanitarian law and international refugee law. To analyse the role of the media in the conflict, this study reviewed local and international media, conducted interviews with local and international journalists and analysts, and consulted secondary literature. Patterns of reporting by international and local media exhibited fairly significant levels of divergence in the issues that were selected for reporting and how they were reported during these four phases of the conflict. The study found significant levels of disinformation, misinformation, and biased reporting that clouded accounts of the conflict and encouraged debates over highly contested issues. International media largely disregarded the role that the TPLF played in provoking the federal government to take military action, at times neglecting to mention the TPLF attack on the Ethiopian Northern Command and occasionally even accusing Prime Minister Ahmed Abiy of ordering a wanton attack on Tigray. International journalists either partially or completely ignored the historical context of the conflict. On the other hand, domestic Ethiopian media largely disregarded the violations that were committed by the federal government and were overly focussed on debunking the claims that were made by the TPLF. Overall, the study found a systematic pattern of local media biased towards the narrative of the federal government, whereas the international media were generally biased towards the narrative of the TPLF. As a result, the voice of the people who suffered the brunt of the fighting became the “casualty” of misinformation, disinformation and biased reporting.
Topic:: Human Rights, Politics, Media, Conflict, and Disinformation
Political Geography:: Africa, Ethiopia, and Tigray

22. Justice Options for Ethiopia: Eight Options to Provide Redress for Ethiopia's Victims

Author:: Sarah McIntosh
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:: The most recent conflict in Ethiopia has claimed thousands of lives and perpetrators have enjoyed almost complete impunity for their crimes. Ɣ Justice and accountability for perpetrators on all sides are desperately needed to demonstrate that perpetrators will not escape punishment, to provide recognition and repair to victims, and to promote social healing and reconciliation. Ɣ Ethiopian civil society representatives have called for the full spectrum of transitional justice mechanisms including criminal accountability, reparations, truth telling, and guarantees of non-recurrence.
Topic:: Civil Society, Transitional Justice, Impunity, Accountability, Atrocities, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa, Ethiopia, Eritrea, East Africa, and Tigray

23. Adoption Rate and Trends in Adoption of Conservation Agriculture in Ethiopia

Author:: Zaide Hailu and Kinde Teshome
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Since 2019 the Ethiopian Ministry of Agriculture has offered extension advice on conservation agriculture (CA). However, agricultural policy focuses mainly on intensive tillage whereas CA calls for zero or minimum tillage. Policy seems to favour productivity over sustainability, with CA adoption remaining low. Supply-side constraints include lack of access to high-quality inputs, credit, and machinery. Demand-side constraints include risk aversion and competition for crop residues needed for mulching from requirements for fuel and feed. Women farmers like CA because it does not require draft animals. However, some women in male-headed households report a shift of labour responsibilities to women.
Topic:: Agriculture, Labor Issues, Conservation, and Farming
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

24. R2P Monitor, Issue 63, 1 December 2022

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: R2P Monitor is a quarterly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 63 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Ukraine, Venezuela, Yemen, Mozambique, Nigeria, South Sudan and Sudan.
Topic:: International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), Norms, Atrocities, and International Humanitarian Law (IHL)
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, China, Sudan, Ukraine, Israel, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Mozambique, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Sahel, and Central African Republic

25. R2P Monitor, Issue 62, 1 September 2022

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: R2P Monitor is a quarterly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 62 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Ukraine, Venezuela, South Sudan, Yemen, Mozambique, Nigeria and Sudan.
Topic:: International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), Norms, Atrocities, and International Humanitarian Law (IHL)
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, China, Sudan, Ukraine, Israel, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Mozambique, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Sahel, and Central African Republic

26. R2P Monitor, Issue 61, 1 June 2022

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: R2P Monitor is a quarterly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 61 looks at developments in Cameroon, Central African Republic, Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Ukraine, Venezuela, Yemen, Afghanistan, Nigeria, South Sudan, Mozambique and Sudan.
Topic:: International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), Norms, Atrocities, and International Humanitarian Law (IHL)
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, China, Sudan, Ukraine, Israel, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Mozambique, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Sahel, and Central African Republic

27. R2P Monitor, Issue 60, 1 March 2022

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: R2P Monitor is a quarterly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 60 looks at developments in Cameroon, Central African Republic, Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Yemen, Afghanistan, Nigeria, South Sudan, Sudan and Venezuela.
Topic:: International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), Norms, Atrocities, and International Humanitarian Law (IHL)
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, China, Sudan, Israel, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Sahel, and Central African Republic

28. Ethiopia (Horn of Africa, part 1 of 2)

Author:: Nathenael Gemechu, Michael Woldemariam, and Guled Ahmed
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Nathenael Gemechu moderates a conversation with Michael Woldemariam and Guled Ahmed on Ethiopia in the first installment of a two-part series on the Horn of Africa. Woldemariam and Ahmed discuss the ongoing Tigrayan conflict that includes Ethiopia and Eritrea and the influence of external players.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Crisis Management, Armed Conflict, and Influence
Political Geography:: Africa, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Horn of Africa, and Tigray

29. The GERD and Cyber Diplomacy

Author:: Mirette F. Mabrouk, Joey Shea, and Eliza Campbell
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Mirette Mabrouk, Joey Shea, and guest host Eliza Campbell discuss current political disputes over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), cyber diplomacy, and the effects of climate change on the Horn of Africa.
Topic:: Climate Change, Diplomacy, Infrastructure, Dams, Cyberspace, and Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)
Political Geography:: Africa, Ethiopia, and Horn of Africa

30. Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam. The Law, History, Politics and Geopolitics behind Africa’s Largest Hydropower Project

Author:: Francesca Caruso
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Since 2011, the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has provoked a diplomatic crisis between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan, adding fuel to the already combustible geopolitics of the Horn of Africa. Despite its technical aspects, the GERD dispute has over time become a multi-layered geopolitical crisis where a plethora of actors and dynamics have been influencing the ongoing negotiations. Protagonists are no longer only Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan, and the resolution of the crisis is now dependent on factors beyond technical solutions. Moreover, the crisis seems to have become an instrument that the three countries are using to deal with issues of national legitimacy, territorial disputes and regional balance. However, while instrumentalisation can be politically expedient in the short term, all parties have an interest an equitable and regionally based, inclusive and cooperative agreement. In order to understand how multilateral organisations can contribute to the finding of an equitable and reasonable solution, a multi-layered analysis – on local, national and regional dynamics – needs to identify the main drivers for Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan.
Topic:: Diplomacy, History, Water, Infrastructure, Law, Geopolitics, Dams, Conflict Management, and Hydropower
Political Geography:: Africa, Ethiopia, and Egypt

31. Egypt’s Decade of Water Woes

Author:: Hafsa Halawa
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: As the Nile River dispute between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan enters a new decade, this paper seeks to map out the Egyptian perspective of the dispute, through an outline of the interventions made, opportunities lost, and challenges posed by the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Looking at Egypt’s domestic water security challenges, regional relationships and the tripartite process, and the role and influence of external actors, the paper describes a decade of diplomatic stagnation as entrenched nationalism creates forms of immovable policy on the River Nile.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Natural Resources, Water, Dams, and Disputes
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Egypt

32. The GERD from an Ethiopian Perspective: Actors, Interests and Instruments

Author:: Jesutimilehin O. Akamo
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: For Ethiopia, proposals on sharing the Nile waters and the filling and operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) must demonstrate flexibility (that is, be legally non-binding) and distance from the order that existed before the Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA, or Entebbe Agreement). The GERD represents a move by Ethiopia to enhance economic security, boost its resilience against drought and consolidate its newfound hydro-political influence towards ensuring equitable and reasonable use of the Nile waters by riparian states. Ethiopia has demonstrated intentionality and consistency in its Nile policy under which the GERD falls. The link between the GERD, Ethiopia’s internal crisis and its perception of an international bias tend to threaten the likelihood of a mutually agreed deal. However, building mutual trust, strategic concessions and de-internationalising the GERD talks to the barest minimum are necessary steps to break the stalemate.
Topic:: Natural Resources, Water, Dams, Drought, and Hydropower
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Egypt

33. A Survey of Importers: Results of a Survey Conducted in Collaboration with the Ethiopian Economics Association

Author:: Ricardo Hausmann, Tim O'Brien, Tim Cheston, Nikita Taniparti, and Ibrahim Worku Hassen
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: Ethiopia suffers from a chronic shortage of foreign exchange (forex).[1] The resulting lack of access to imports prevents firms from accessing imported inputs required for production. This creates a vicious cycle as exporters are constrained by this same problem, which further reduces overall supply of foreign exchange in the Ethiopian economy. The inability to reliably access foreign exchange for imports affects firm decisions on sourcing, capacity, and output. While the cost of this constraint is known to be high on the Ethiopian economy and firms are known to use a range of measures to attempt to bypass this constraint, quantitative assessments of the problem and response actions by firms are limited. It is in this context that an importer survey was conducted with the goal of informing policy decisions. A total of 202 firms with an active importing license were interviewed in March-April 2022. These firms were randomly sampled from firms registered with an importer license. All firms interviewed reported that they were operating below capacity, often well below capacity. Foreign exchange shortages were the main reason respondent firms cited for not operating at full capacity (63% of firms reporting this as their biggest constraint). Forex shortages far surpass the second and third reasons cited for not operating at full capacity — constraints due to the conflict (13%) and COVID-19 restrictions (11%). Firms operating below capacity cited forex shortages as the main constraint, regardless of whether they imported or not in the previous year. This was the most pressing constraint reported by firms of all sizes and sectors surveyed. It was the most pressing constraint faced by exporters and by foreign-owned firms as well as non-exporters and domestic firms. Amongst the total sample of firms with a renewed importer license, more than one-third of respondent firms (37%) had not imported in FY2020-21. Overall, 74% of firms reported experiencing challenges in accessing forex. Access to forex was reported as most challenging for manufacturing firms and smaller firms but impacted all sectors and firm sizes. The losses attributed to forex scarcity at the firm level were largest for agricultural firms, for micro-firms, and for firms that did not import at all in the previous year. In general, the larger the firm sales, the higher the likelihood that they were able import. The survey found different types of imports for different sectors. Manufacturing firms imported a large share semi-finished goods as imports as compared to agricultural firms that primarily imported finished goods. The survey results find that foreign exchange shortages and an inability to import are most severe for the manufacturing and agriculture sectors, small and micro-sized firms, and all non-exporters. However, the constraint is also the top problem facing all firm types in the survey, including exporters and foreign-owned firms. The primary means of accessing foreign exchange where it did occur was through specialized forex accounts or ‘diaspora’ accounts. The second most common means of accessing foreign exchange was through retention accounts available to exporters. The black market featured in many responses, but questions across the survey suggest that self-reported use of the black market by survey participants is underreported versus actual usage. The ability to source foreign exchange differed significantly by firm size. Exporting firms primarily used retention account earnings, as compared to non-exporters, which relied more on forex accounts. For faster access to forex, most firms reported that they approach banks, followed by turning to the black market. Friends and family abroad also served as a source of forex for one-quarter of firm respondents, and that foreign exchange was often used immediately. Foreign exchange access from banks is nevertheless a major pain point for firms. Most firms (55%) requested forex from a bank in the past year. On average, fulfilled forex requests took three months to be processed when they were fulfilled, but many firms reported that they have an unfulfilled request that has been in the system for more than a year. These firms are especially likely to report foreign exchange access as their top challenge. The survey finds that individual firms do not tend to use both official and black-market foreign exchange sources but rather tend to access all their forex at the (lower) official rate or all at the (higher) black-market. Large firms import most of their products at the official rate. By contrast, most small and micro firms import through other means. Manufacturing firms are also more likely to import all their production through other means and outside of the banking system. Non-exporting firms tended to import through other means than the official rate and outside of the banking system at a higher prevalence than exporting firms. The survey gleaned new insights on the implicit exchange rate that firms face as they navigate official and black-market channels of foreign exchange access. The survey does not allow for a precise estimate of the transaction-weighted exchange rate facing the economy but finds firm-level estimates align with previous macro-level estimates. The implicit exchange rate was higher for non-exporting firms, which show a greater willingness to pay a higher exchange rate to access imports. This signals the importance of the retention account for exporters to guarantee an import price closer to the official exchange rate. When asked about the maximum rate firms would pay to guarantee access to forex, some groups of firms were willing to pay higher amounts, including all non-exporters, firms that imported in the past year, and those that declared forex access a challenge. When compared to the implied rate they paid in the past year, many firms are willing to pay more than the implied rate to guarantee access to forex. Firm perspectives on policy changes to the exchange rate underscored challenges faced by policymakers. Current policy has been one of a crawling peg, with changes within the last several years to increase the rate of devaluation. The survey asked respondents about their support for faster devaluation, for a one-off movement to unify the official rate with the black-market rate, or about alternative exchange rate systems such as a floating exchange rate. Most respondents (71%) opposed maintaining the current regime, yet no option received majority support. Most firms appear to want both a stronger exchange rate and easier access to foreign exchange despite a tradeoff between these two priorities. The largest share of support for policy change was to adjust the exchange rate such that the official rate matches the black-market rate.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Imports, and Collaboration
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

34. Development in a Complex World: The Case of Ethiopia: A Compendium of Project Research on Advancing Economic Diversification in Ethiopia

Author:: Ricardo Hausmann, Tim O'Brien, Tim Cheston, Ibrahim Worku Hassen, and Can Soylu
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: This research compendium provides an explanation of Ethiopia’s fundamental economic challenge of slowing economic growth after an exceptional growth acceleration — a challenge that has been compounded by COVID-19, conflict, and climate change impacts. Ethiopia has experienced exceptional growth since the early 2000s but began to see a slowdown in the capacity of the economy to grow, export, and produce jobs since roughly 2015. This intensified a set of macroeconomic challenges, including high, volatile, and escalating inflation. This compendium identifies a path forward for more sustainable and inclusive growth that builds on the government’s Homegrown Economic Reform strategy. It includes growth diagnostics and economic complexity research as well as applications to unpack interacting macroeconomic distortions and inform diversification strategies. Drawing on lessons from past success in Ethiopia and new constraints, this compendium offers insights into what the Government of Ethiopia and the international community must do to unlock resilient, post-conflict economic recovery across Ethiopia. The research across the chapters of this compendium was developed during the Growth Lab’s research project in Ethiopia from 2019 to 2022, supported through a grant by the United States Agency of International Development (USAID). This research effort, which was at times conducted in close collaboration with government and non-government researchers in Ethiopia, pushed the boundaries of Growth Lab research. The project team worked to understand to intensive shocks faced by the country and enable local capability building in the context of limited government resources in a very low-income country. Given the value of this learning, this compendium not only discusses challenges and opportunities in Ethiopia in significant detail but also describes how various tools of diagnostic work and economic strategy-building were used in practice. As such, it aims to serve as a teaching resource for how economic tools can be applied to unique development contexts. The compendium reveals lessons for Ethiopian policymakers regarding the country’s development path as well as numerous lessons that the development community and development practitioners can learn from Ethiopia.
Topic:: Development, Economic Growth, Diversification, and Structural Transformation
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

35. A Very Ethiopian Tragedy: Tigray, the TPLF, and Cyclical History

Author:: Richard Reid
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:: This article seeks to place the recent conflict in Ethiopia in deeper historical context. It traces the roots of Tigray province’s identity through various phases in Ethiopia’s history, and argues that the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) is the culmination of decades, even centuries, of a struggle for status within the Ethiopian nation-state. The article proposes that Ethiopia’s history, inseparable from that of neighboring Eritrea, is characterized by cyclical shifts in access to power, as well as conflicts over inclusivity and cohesion, and that crushing the TPLF militarily will not resolve those conflicts.
Topic:: Security, History, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa, Ethiopia, and Tigray

36. R2P Monitor, Issue 55, 15 January 2021

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 55 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Cameroon, the Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Syria, Venezuela, Yemen, Central African Republic, Ethiopia, Mozambique, Myanmar (Burma), Nigeria and South Sudan.
Topic:: Crisis Management, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), Norms, Atrocities, and International Humanitarian Law (IHL)
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Africa, China, South Asia, Middle East, Asia, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, South America, Mozambique, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Sahel, and Central African Republic

37. R2P Monitor, Issue 56, 15 March 2021

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 56 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Cameroon, Central Sahel, China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Venezuela, Yemen, Central African Republic, Mozambique, Nigeria, South Sudan and Sudan.
Topic:: International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), Norms, Atrocities, and International Humanitarian Law (IHL)
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, China, Sudan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mozambique, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Sahel, and Central African Republic

38. R2P Monitor, Issue 57, 1 June 2021

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: R2P Monitor is a quarterly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 57 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Cameroon, Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Venezuela, Yemen, Mozambique, Central African Republic, Nigeria, South Sudan and Sudan.
Topic:: International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), Norms, Atrocities, and International Humanitarian Law (IHL)
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, China, Sudan, Israel, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Mozambique, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Sahel, and Central African Republic

39. R2P Monitor, Issue 58, 1 September 2021

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: R2P Monitor is a quarterly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 58 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Cameroon, Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Venezuela, Yemen, Central African Republic, Mozambique, Nigeria, South Sudan and Sudan.
Topic:: International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), Norms, Atrocities, and International Humanitarian Law (IHL)
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, China, Sudan, Israel, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Mozambique, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Sahel, and Central African Republic

40. R2P Monitor, Issue 59, 1 December 2021

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: R2P Monitor is a quarterly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 59 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Cameroon, Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Venezuela, Yemen, Sudan, Central African Republic, Mozambique, Nigeria and South Sudan.
Topic:: International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), Norms, Atrocities, and International Humanitarian Law (IHL)
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, China, Sudan, Israel, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Mozambique, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Sahel, and Central African Republic

41. Trade liberalization, employment, and gender in Ethiopia

Author:: Giorgia Giovannetti, Marco Sanfilippo, and Arianna Vivoli
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This paper analyses the impact of trade liberalization on local labour markets in Ethiopia, with a focus on the gender dimension of employment. By exploiting rich micro-level data on Ethiopian workers, we evaluate the effect of the Ethiopian trade reforms on the changes and composition of employment, adopting as unit of analysis Ethiopian districts. We find that districts more exposed to trade liberalization experienced reductions in their employment levels, especially in female employment. We also show that reductions in (agricultural) input tariffs triggers a process of sectoral reallocation from agriculture to services and that this process is particularly pronounced for women. This in turns contributes to increase sectoral segregation.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Employment, Trade, and Liberalization
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

42. Violent Ethnic Extremism in Ethiopia: Implications for the Stability of the Horn of Africa

Author:: Yonas Adeto
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: Scholarship on the challenges of ethno-linguistic federalism in contemporary Ethiopia is copious; yet a critical analysis of violent ethnic extremism in the country and its implications for the sub-region is rare. This article argues that violent ethnic extremism is a threat to the existence of Ethiopia and a destabilising factor for its neighbours. Based on qualitative empirical data, it attempts to address the knowledge gap and contribute to the literature by examining why violent ethnic extremism has persisted in the post-1991 Ethiopia and how it would impact on the stability of the Horn of Africa. Analysis of the findings indicates that systemic limitations of ethno-linguistic federalism; unhealthy ethnic competition; resistance of ethno-nationalist elites to the current reform; unemployed youths; the ubiquity of small arms and light weapons; and cross-border interactions of violent extremists are the major dynamics propelling violent ethnic extremism in Ethiopia. Thus, Ethiopia and the sub-region could potentially face cataclysmic instabilities unless collective, inclusive, transformative and visionary leadership is entrenched.
Topic:: Political stability, Ethnicity, Conflict, and Political Extremism
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

43. Eliminating child marriage in Ethiopia

Author:: Fana Gebresenbet
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: How can we explain the large gap between national legal and policy commitments to reduce and eliminate gender-based violence (GBV) and the reality and practice of GBV in Ethiopia? Hitherto explanations mainly centre on the conflict between and social and official norms, and the stubbornness of the former. In this new DIIS Working Paper, Fana Gebresenbet tries to go beyond this dichotomy to examine what happens in the ‘in-between spaces’. While the stubbornness of social norms only brings home to us the slow pace of change, it does not tell us what guides the emerging practices that contribute towards change. Instead, ‘practical norms’ are used here as an analytical tool to examine what happens as we move along the continuum from social to official norms. This helps us capture why routinised, coordinated and socially acceptable new practices occur before the major social norms change. This work is part of GLOW (Global Norms and Violence Against Women in Ethiopia), a research programme financed by the Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs and coordinated by DIIS.
Topic:: Development, Diplomacy, International Organization, Poverty, Children, Women, and Inequality
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

44. The controversy surrounding marital rape: The controversy surrounding marital rape in Ethiopia

Author:: Meron Zeleke
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Marital rape and intimate partner violence are controversial issues all over the world either because they are recognised as criminal acts and strongly condemned, or because they are silenced as something that belongs to the private sphere and should not be the object of public scrutiny. In either case, they are acts of repression and gender inequality. In this DIIS Working Paper, Meron Zeleke, associate professor at the Addis Ababa University, explores the issue in an Ethiopian context. She takes a point of departure in historical debates and outlines the development of global and regional norms. The Maputo Protocol on the rights of women in Africa explicitly condemns marital rape. Ethiopia has recently ratified the protocol but has made a number of reservations including in relation to marital rape. The main part of the paper is constituted by an analysis of the ambiguous law reforms when it comes to marital rape in Ethiopia. This analysis points to several different explanations of the lack of criminalisation of marital rape, but suggests that the recent change of government may create space for addressing the issue again. The paper is part of the GLOW research programme.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Poverty, Women, Inequality, Rape, and Marital Rape
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

45. A Spiraling Crisis: The different scenarios of Ethiopia’s civil war amid Tigray’s military advancement

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Over the past nine months, Ethiopia has been reeling under a civil war that broke out between the federal government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). The conflict, however, saw two important developments, with the first being that the war has spilled over the region’s border into Amhara and Afar. The second development is that Addis Ababa refused to allow corridors via Sudan for humanitarian aid bound for Tigray Region. Addis Ababa took this stand despite the United Nation’s warning that 400,000 people are left on the verge of famine in the beleaguered region and that 90 per cent of the population need lifesaving food aid.
Topic:: Security, Civil War, Military Affairs, Crisis Management, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Africa, Ethiopia, and Tigray

46. Ethiopian Perspective: Elections in Strained Dynamics

Author:: Anwar Ibrahim
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The election, which was held in Ethiopia on Monday, June 21, 2021, was the most complicated election that the country has witnessed in more than three decades, or, more accurately, since the 1994 constitution was approved. The reason is that this election was held amid lots of internal challenges, not to mention the strong criticism of its legitimacy (both domestically and internationally) even before it was held. Ethiopians are warily looking forward to the results, which are supposed to be announced within a few days, despite that it is not unlikely that these results will escalate the tensions in an already unrest-ridden country.
Topic:: Government, Elections, Conflict, and Political Parties
Political Geography:: Africa, Ethiopia, and Tigray

47. Restoring the Role: The Algerian mediation role in the region, various motivators and challenges

Author:: Mahmoud Gamal
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Algeria's mediation endeavors are based on a well-established foreign policy of creating stability in the region and maintaining the status quo, for fear of any radical change that could lead to chaos and instability. This rule stems mainly from the political memory that has been lingering since the events of the ‘Black Decade’, which almost destroyed Algeria and its stability. This analysis highlights indications of the growing Algerian mediation endeavors in various recent crises in the region, such as the situation in Tunisia following president Kais Saied's decisions on July 25, 2021, the Libyan crisis and the complex political transition, the crisis of the Renaissance Dam between Egypt and Sudan on the one hand and Ethiopia on the other, as well as the crisis in Mali.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, Transition, and Mediation
Political Geography:: Africa, Algeria, Ethiopia, and Mali

48. ‘Designed in Ethiopia’ and ‘Made in China’: Sino-Ethiopian technology collaboration in South-South relations

Author:: Jos Meester
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: This policy brief provides an examination of China’s rise in relation to its African partners. It takes into account geopolitical concerns, but homes in on China’s Belt and Road Initiative, its means of expanding into Africa. It examines the role of the Digital Silk Road in the use of Chinese artificial intelligence and technology transfers on surveillance and the risks of repression. The brief aims to move beyond the politicised narratives surrounding Chinese involvement in Africa by testing them against practical initiatives on the ground. It examines Ethiopia, particularly its burgeoning tech hub known as the ‘Sheba Valley’, in order to understand China’s role in development in African countries. Ethiopia is a critical case because of: the country’s strong relations with China, leading Ethiopia to model its developmental state model on the Chinese one and incentivising civil servants to learn from the Chinese experience; Ethiopia’s attempt to develop its relatively advanced ICT hub (the Sheba Valley) in collaboration with China’s Shenzhen-based ICT hub; Ethiopia’s historically heavy surveillance and repressive practices, in part modelled on China’s practice of prioritising development over democratic reform.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Science and Technology, Geopolitics, Surveillance, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Asia, and Ethiopia

49. A Transition at Work? The ethnicization of Ethiopia’s informal sector

Author:: Jos Meester and Nancy Ezzeddine
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: The Ethiopian governing regime has defined poverty as the biggest threat to its survival since its inception, and has thus established a top-down developmental state model to drive economic growth that would legitimise its existence. While this model has sustained high GDP growth rates, Ethiopia faces a challenge translating such growth into improved livelihoods. The private sector is weakly developed, and job creation in Ethiopia’s urban centres has not kept pace with population growth or rural-urban migration. Employment in the informal economy has been key to an increasing number of individuals’ livelihoods, yet persistent poverty, inequality and marginalisation is also deepening grievances. The ethnically defined federalist system has created potentially powerful ethnic nationalist constituencies and aligned other previously cross-cutting political cleavages with existing ethnic divides, which result in potentially strong centrifugal forces. The Ethiopian state’s clientelistic approaches to political mobilisation and its claim to legitimacy based on economic growth have equally lost purchase in the face of persistent poverty and marginalisation. With political debate extending beyond previously formalised channels, ethnically based networks are gaining significance. While career perspectives in the formal sector have long been intertwined with the ethnically based political system, such dynamics are becoming increasingly pronounced in the informal sector. The demarcation of boundaries between ethnic groups is becoming more important in the informal sector. While this may help ethnic groupings secure their livelihoods by securing control over various economic sectors and locations, it has reduced inter-group cooperation by eroding cross-cutting social capital and has connected economic grievances with ethnic fault lines. As a result, political tensions between ethnic nationalist groupings increasingly engage substantial urban constituencies, allowing tensions to spill over and exacerbate the broader political strains across the country.
Topic:: Politics, Governance, Ethnicity, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

50. A warm war: Sudan and Ethiopia on a collision course

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: Border conflict between Sudan and Ethiopia is fed by current conflicts rooted in historical disagreements, and may develop into a regional crisis that will expand to include Egypt, which considers the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam a threat to its national security.
Topic:: National Security, War, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, and Ethiopia

51. The Interaction of Mass Media and Social Media in Fuelling Ethnic Violence in Ethiopia

Author:: Muna Shifa and Fabio Andres Diaz Pabon
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: Social media platforms play a prominent role in modern society by providing tools for various voices to communicate ideas, perspectives and worldviews. Such potential has been illustrated by the role of these platforms in supporting social movements, mobilisation in defence of the environment, and the defence of marginalised communities and groups across different latitudes.[1]However, in many instances, social media has also been used to spread misinformation, broadcast hate speech, and incite violence. The role of social media has been documented as interacting and co-creating narratives with mass media in contexts of conflict. We understand mass media as a diverse set of media platforms that use mass communication to reach a large audience and operate within visible organisational structures. Platforms such as radio, television, newspapers, and magazines are examples of mass media. We define social media as decentralised broadcasting platforms that allow users to create and share content as well as engage in social networking. Facebook, Twitter and YouTube are examples of social media platforms. The role of social media and its interaction with mass media in relation to conflicts remains a growing area of study, particularly after the Arab Spring.[2] The Arab Spring highlighted the importance of social media in social mobilisations leading to uprisings and the emergence of armed conflicts. It illustrated how conflicts and even armed action can be coordinated via social media platforms (as in Syria and Iraq). Despite this, the role of social media and its interaction with mass media in fuelling tensions across ‘ethnic’ groups in armed conflicts remains an under-researched area. Thus, while social media and mass media appear ubiquitous, little research has been conducted to examine how traditional mass media and social media interact in fuelling ethnic conflict.
Topic:: Civil Society, Mass Media, Social Media, Ethnicity, and Violence
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

52. The Crisis of Ethiopian Foreign Relations

Author:: ACCORD
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: Amid continued domestic upheaval, Ethiopia’s foreign relations are also in crisis. This is particularly true of relations with Ethiopia’s neighbouring countries. Ethiopia’s rapprochement with Eritrea, for which Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed received the Nobel Peace Prize, has morphed into a joint security pact that has now seen Eritrean troops occupy parts of northern Ethiopia for more than six months, in an attempt to defeat the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), whose forces are now rebranded as the Tigray Defence Forces (TDF).[1] The war between Ethiopian and Eritrean allied forces and the TPLF/TDF has led to numerous atrocities, a humanitarian and development disaster, and brought the Tigray region to the brink of widespread famine.[2] Even after sustained military operations and despite the higher number of Ethiopian federal and Eritrean troops, the TPLF/TDF have not been defeated and, as was predicted, they still retain the capacity to mount guerrilla attacks.[3] There is little prospect that the war will be won outright by either side and, to date, the Ethiopian federal government’s commitment to withdraw Eritrean forces has yet to be fulfilled.[4] Recent, albeit unconfirmed, reports have suggested that Somali troops may also be involved in the war in Tigray, prompting Somali parliamentarians to demand an investigation into the location of their troops.[5]
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

53. Ethiopia: 5-year forecast summary

Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Economy and 5-year summary
Political Geography:: Ethiopia

54. Human Rights Investigations in Ethiopia and Paths Forward for Justice

Author:: Isabelle Turner and Tallan Donine
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:: On November 19, 2021, the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide at the US Holocaust Memorial Museum brought together researchers, international legal experts, and foreign policy practitioners to discuss the evolving crisis in Ethiopia and explore options for justice and accountability. This rapporteur’s report summarizes the key themes and observations raised during the roundtable.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Human Rights, International Law, Justice, Atrocities, and Investigations
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

55. Refugees and Local Power Dynamics The Case of the Gambella Region of Ethiopia

Author:: Samuel Zewdie Hagos
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: The Gambella Region is one of the marginalised and most conflict-ridden regions in Ethiopia. Recently, violent clashes between the two largest ethnic groups in the region - the host communities, the Anywaa, and the South Sudanese Nuer refugees - have reignited the debate on refugee integration in the region. In fact, the roots of the Anywaa-Nuer conflict can be traced back to the imperial regime of Ethiopia at the end of the 19th century. In the early 1960s however, the arrival and spontaneous integration of Nuer refugees was peaceful and relations between both ethnic groups were harmonious. During this time, refugee management was organised locally. Against this background, the focus of the present paper is to understand the nature, context and evolution of the long-standing conflict between the Anywaa and refugees from the Nuer ethnic group in the Gambella Region. Beyond that, the paper explores the Anywaa-Nuer conflict within the context of the political power dynamics of the last two decades. Thereby, the paper reveals that the disputes between the Anywaa and the Nuer have taken on a new dimension since the early 1990s.
Topic:: Refugees, Conflict, Integration, and Marginalization
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

56. Mechanisms for Governing the Water-Land-Food Nexus in the Lower Awash River Basin, Ethiopia: Ensuring Policy Coherence in the Implementation of the 2030 Agenda

Author:: Srinivasa Reddy Srigiri, Anita Breuer, and Waltina Scheumann
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Interdependencies among the goals and targets make the 2030 Agenda indivisible and their integrated implementation requires coherent policies. Coordination across different sectors and levels is deemed as crucial for avoiding trade-offs and achieving synergies among multiple, interlinked policy goals, which depend on natural resources. However, there is insufficient evidence regarding the conditions under which coordination for integrated achievement of different water- and land-based Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) functions effectively. The paper investigates the land and water governance in the Ethiopian lower Awash River basin and identifies key interdependencies among related SDGs. It assesses in how far the interactions and coordination among various decision-making centres are effective in managing the interdependencies among different goals. Systems for using and managing water and land exhibit features of polycentric governance as this process involves decision-making centres across different sectors and at various levels. Key action situations for land and water governance in operational, collective and constitutional choice levels are interlinked/networked. Each action situation constitutes actions that deliver one of the functions of polycentric governance, such as production, provision, monitoring etc. as an outcome, which affects the choices of actors in an adjacent action situation. The study shows that the existing institutions and governance mechanisms for water and land in Ethiopia are not effective in managing the interdependencies. Non-recognition of traditional communal rights of pastoralists over land and water and ineffective policy instruments for ensuring environmental and social safeguards are leading to major trade-offs among goals of local food security and economic growth. The autocratic regime of Ethiopia has coordination mechanisms in place, which fulfil the role of dissemination of policies and raising awareness. However, they are not designed to build consensus and political will for designing and implementing national plans, by including the interests and aspirations of the local communities and local governments. The study recommends efforts to achieve SDGs in the Ethiopian Awash River basin to focus on strengthening the capacities of relevant actors, especially the district and river basin authorities in delivering the key governance functions such as water infrastructure maintenance, efficient use of water, and effective implementation of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA). Further, urgent efforts for scaling up of recognition, certification and protection of communal land rights of pastoralists and clear definition of rules for awarding compensation upon expropriation, are required.
Topic:: Water, Food, Governance, Sustainable Development Goals, and Land
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

57. Fragile States Index 2021 – Annual Report

Author:: Natalie Fiertz, Nate Haken, Patricia Taft, Emily Sample, and Wendy Wilson
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Fund for Peace
Abstract:: The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Fragile States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.
Topic:: Climate Change, Authoritarianism, Employment, Fragile States, Economy, Political stability, Conflict, Crisis Management, Peace, Resilience, COVID-19, Health Crisis, Early Warning, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Middle East, Tajikistan, Germany, Armenia, Central America, Spain, Lebanon, Timor-Leste, North America, Ethiopia, Southeast Asia, El Salvador, Global Focus, and United States of America

58. Identifying Binding Constraints on Digital Payment Services in Ethiopia: An Application of a Decision Tree Framework

Author:: Getnet Alemu, Tadele Ferde, and Alejandro Fiorito
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: While several comparable countries in sub-Saharan Africa have seen a significant increase in financial inclusion, mainly driven by digital financial services, Ethiopia still performs poorly. Even digital payment and transfer services, which lower-income and less literate segments of the population could benefit from, are rarely used. Given the low development level of Ethiopia, numerous supply and demand factors could explain this disappointing outcome. We use a decision tree framework to isolate and analyze potential constraints to find which are binding—that is, which constraints limit the expansion of digital payment services in Ethiopia. Our analysis indicates that supply-side problems are pervasive, and we find that competition problems in the essential digital infrastructure market and in the financial sector are responsible for the inadequate provision of digital payment services in Ethiopia. However, the root cause of inadequate competition, and therefore of low financial inclusion through digital payment services, is institutional deficiencies. The two key institutional deficiencies are the lack of capacity of regulatory and supervisory institutions, and the unwillingness of the central government to enable and promote competition. The dominance of public enterprises, Ethio Telecom and the Commercial Bank of Ethiopia, has kept the prices of digital payment services high, particularly for low-income populations, as fees charged for undertaking low-value transactions are very high and the cost of digital infrastructure (mobile phones and plans) is also substantial. Unless these institutional binding constraints are removed, digital payment services in Ethiopia, and digital financial services more generally, will hit a very short ceiling that limits their enormous potential to improve livelihoods in the country.
Topic:: Development, Finance, Digital Economy, and Digitalization
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

59. Summers of Strife: From Libya to Ethiopia

Author:: Nabil Fahmy
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Ethiopia’s obstinance puts the region at a sensitive crossroads again
Topic:: Water, Infrastructure, Conflict, Institutions, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

60. The Renaissance Dam after the Security Council

Author:: Nabil Fahmy
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Egypt and Sudan continue to insist on a tripartite agreement to manage Ethiopia’s contentious plan to execute its Renaissance dam on the Nile.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Infrastructure, and Dams
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Egypt

61. Mid-Year Update: 10 Conflicts to Worry About in 2021

Author:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: In ACLED’s special report on 10 conflicts to worry about at the start of 2021, we identified a range of flashpoints and emerging crises where violent political disorder was likely to evolve or worsen over the course of the year: Ethiopia, India & Pakistan, Myanmar, Haiti, Belarus, Colombia, Armenia & Azerbaijan, Yemen, Mozambique, and the Sahel.1 Our mid-year update revisits these 10 cases, tracking key developments in political violence and protest activity during the first half of 2021 and analyzing trends to watch in the coming months.
Topic:: Political Violence, Conflict, Protests, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:: Pakistan, India, Yemen, Colombia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Haiti, Mozambique, Ethiopia, Myanmar, Belarus, Sahel, and Global Focus

62. More Local is Possible: Recommendations for enhancing local humanitarian leadership and refugee participation in the Gambella refugee response

Author:: Freddie Carver, Elizabeth Deng, and Yotam Gidron
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The Gambella region of western Ethiopia hosts over 300,000 South Sudanese refugees in seven camps. The refugee response is dominated by UN agencies and international NGOs and staffed mostly by Ethiopians from outside of Gambella, creating a gap between humanitarian actors and the people they seek to assist. In order to realize commitments to localization and refugee participation made in the Charter for Change, the Grand Bargain and the Global Compact for Refugees, it is critical for refugees and local populations to be more involved in shaping and leading the delivery of aid. This could be achieved through increasing the role played by Gambella-based NGOs, engaging with faith-based actors, facilitating diaspora initiatives and supporting the development of refugee-led organizations.
Topic:: Refugees, Leadership, Humanitarian Intervention, and Local
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

63. Introducing the Mind-the-Gap Index: A tool to understand urban spatial inequality

Author:: Jeni Klugman and Matthew Moore
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:: Where people live exerts a strong influence on multiple aspects of their well-being, including their access to economic opportunities, education, health and other services and to their security, as well as other goals envisioned in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. In a world with high and growing levels of urbanization, policy makers are increasingly aware that the future of inequality depends largely on what happens in cities. There is also concern that rising spatial inequality can lead to social unrest, rioting, increased crime, and erode trust among separated societal groups. The World Bank estimates that half of the area that will be urbanized by 2050 has not yet been built, which implies major opportunities for the policies and decisions affecting cities to shape the world we live in. First, this paper synthesizes several research papers regarding what we already know–drawing on recent research from UNDESA and others–to outline the extent of spatial disparities, the ways that spatial inequality shapes today’s cities, and the key factors driving spatial disparities. Additionally, the paper introduces a new index designed to capture key dimensions of spatial inequality, along with analysis of results from three pilot applications in Addis Ababa, Jakarta, and Mexico City which highlights the importance of granular and up-to-date data, as well as the accumulating nature of disadvantage in poor neighborhoods.
Topic:: Inequality, Sustainable Development Goals, and Urban
Political Geography:: Indonesia, Ethiopia, and Mexico

64. THE SPECIAL POLICE IN ETHIOPIA

Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: European Institute of Peace (EIP)
Abstract:: Like many federal and devolved systems, Ethiopia has both federal and regional security forces. In the last fifteen years, however, Ethiopia’s regional states have established regional special police forces, in addition to the regular regional state police. Established first in Ethiopia’s Somali region in 2007 to conduct counter-insurgency operations and riot control, special police quickly spread to all other regions of Ethiopia. The role and status of special police forces in Ethiopia remain contested. Resembling paramilitary forces, the regional special police units are well armed and receive military training. They are rapidly growing in size and have successfully recruited senior (former) army officers into their ranks. Special police forces have become deeply involved in Ethiopia’s interregional conflicts and border disputes, most notably in the current conflict in Tigray. They have even been involved in international operations in Somalia and Sudan and internal coup attempts. They have also been linked to severe human rights abuses. While federal and regional governments are empowered to establish their respective police forces, no specific legal provision deals with the special police force. As trust in the federal government waned in many regional capitals, states have linked the mandate of their special police forces with self-government. Still, special police have overstepped that boundary and engaged in activities, such as international border security and settling interregional disputes, that fall within the exclusive mandate of the federal government and federal forces. This report explores the origins and growth of the special police and its roles in current Ethiopia. It investigates the force’s constitutional and legal ambiguity and places the special police within the broader debate over Ethiopian federalism. Finally, it suggests several models that Ethiopia could adopt to regulate its proliferating special police forces. A failure to do so may have dire consequences for the future of the country.
Topic:: Human Rights, Regional Cooperation, International Security, Police, Legal Sector, and Human Rights Violations
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

65. FAKE NEWS MISINFORMATION AND HATE SPEECH IN ETHIOPIA: A VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: European Institute of Peace (EIP)
Abstract:: Fake news, misinformation, and hate speech have thrived in the Ethiopian media ecosystem, and particularly online. This is strongly correlated with significant, tragic, real-world consequences, exacerbated pre-existing tensions, and contributed to violence and conflict. To date, the Government of Ethiopia’s response to combating the spread of fake news, misinformation, and hate speech has been, by necessity, heavy-handed, with the go-to response to escalation being to turn off the internet for the entire country. The vulnerability assessment aims to outline an approach and framework to improve the understanding of fake news, misinformation, and hate speech in Ethiopia, to develop a more nuanced and tailored approach to addressing a real national challenge. While this study is preliminary and indicative, drawing on a relatively small sample size, it is hoped that it can be illustrative and used to improve the national conversation regarding the federal response to fake news, misinformation, and hate speech. Still, it does not claim to be and should not be considered the final word on the matter. The assessment found that Ethiopia’s media ecosystem’s weaknesses have made it vulnerable to fake news, misinformation, and hate speech. Some of the driving factors are undoubtedly historical, including the weak state of private media in Ethiopia, the critical role of the Ethiopian diaspora in media ownership, and the proliferation and wild rise in popularity of entertainment-news page services Facebook and Twitter. The report proposes a pro-active and risk-based approach, which identifies likely and potentially fake news, misinformation, and hate speech flashpoints and lays out the actions that will be required to mitigate them.
Topic:: Communications, Mass Media, Media, News Analysis, Hate Speech, Disinformation, and Misinformation
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

66. RELIGION, ETHNICITY, AND CHARGES OF EXTREMISM: THE DYNAMICS OF INTER-COMMUNAL VIOLENCE IN ETHIOPIA

Author:: Terje Østebø, Jörg Haustein, Fasika Gedif, Muhammad Jemal Kadir, Kedir Jemal, and Yihenew Alemu Tesfaye
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: European Institute of Peace (EIP)
Abstract:: In recent months, the conflict in Tigray has dominated most analyses of Ethiopian politics. The scale of that crisis makes this understandable, but it remains important to keep analysing the inter-communal tensions and conflicts lines that had already emerged all over the country before the fighting in Tigray and continue to persist in parallel. This report addresses in particular the question of religiously motivated violence and its relationship with ethnic conflict. It analyses in detail two specific instances of inter-communal conflict that occurred in Mota (Amhara region) in December 2019 and in Shashemene (Oromia region) in July 2020. Both incidents might be seen as archetypical cases for inter-communal tensions and conflict motivated by religious (Mota) and ethnic (Shashemene) difference. Yet as the report will go on to show, these two aspects of collective identity formation are not clearly separate in Ethiopia but overlap and interact with one another in complex ways. This renders moot all mono-dimensional analyses of inter-communal conflict in Ethiopia, especially as different narratives compete in the interpretation of violence and its causes. Socio-economic variables undoubtedly play a role in defining the wider context, but the formation of communities, the genesis of conflict, and the circulation of interpretative narratives typically rest on references to ethnicity and religion. Given the current emphasis on ethnicity in Ethiopian politics, the role of religious affiliation is often overlooked, yet it is here that the accusation of “extremism” is most frequently and most consequentially raised. The report engages critically with such accusations and the corollary notion of rising religious extremism in Ethiopia. It will show, moreover, how the mere expectation or accusation of extremism has sufficed to generate inter-communal violence and deepened a climate of mistrust.
Topic:: Race, Violent Extremism, Ethnicity, Violence, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

67. Gender-Responsive Budgeting in Agriculture in Ethiopia

Author:: Nuru Hussen, Ermias Mengistu, and Bedaso Taye
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The gender division of labor in Ethiopia hinders women smallholders’ efforts to improve productivity to close the gap with men’s farms. There is substantial evidence that where women have access to the same inputs and training as men, they can close that gap. The government’s national development plan identifies agriculture as the main driver of rapid and inclusive growth. The plan seeks to increase women’s participation in agriculture to 50 percent of all participants. But this can only happen with proper implementation of gender-responsive budgeting (GRB). Ethiopia has ratified a number of international conventions and agreements on women’s rights that have guided development of national laws and policies. Nonetheless, the national budgetary process is not yet gender responsive, and the country faces other challenges. Low awareness of gender issues, limited technical skill in mainstreaming gender issues and GRB, lack of adequate resources, and poor enforcement mechanisms are major constraints. A majority of women do not participate in decision-making or express their needs during public meetings because of sociocultural barriers that elevate the role of males. Women are usually not invited to meetings and discussions that concern them, under the assumption that men can convey any relevant messages. But information does not consistently get passed to women farmers owing to the erroneous perception that “women do not farm.” Women’s low levels of literacy and limited exposure to information and support by development practitioners also contribute to the problem. As a result, women are often unable to exercise their rights during program design and implementation. If agriculture is to lead inclusive development, gender and rural development policies need updating. In addition, achieving high-quality agricultural public spending will require a conducive policy environment and a budget process that promotes the participation and well-being of women and girls as well as men and boys.
Topic:: Agriculture, Development, Labor Issues, Farming, and Gender
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

68. The nexus between shimglina as ADR and the formal criminal justice system: The case of the Amhara regional state, Ethiopia

Author:: Gubaye Assaye Alamineh, Kumilachew Siferaw Anteneh, Abebe Dires Dinberu, and Mohammed Seid Ali
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: Alternative Dispute Resolution (ADR) mechanisms have been the common practice to resolve various conflicts in general and blood feuds in particular in the Amhara national regional state. As such, the central objective of this study is to assess the interface between ADR and the formal criminal justice system when addressing blood feuds. To achieve this, an ethnographic research approach was used. As the finding reveals, shimglinaas the common indigenous resolution mechanism of blood feuds has been widely used. In this reconciliation process, we identified diagnosis, initiation, forgiveness and the oath as essential phases. Concerning the previous interfaces between shimglina and the formal adjudication system, the reconciliation decisions made by shimglina had been accepted and taken for granted by the formal adjudications. But now this trend has been changed due to interference by formal adjudication on the process and implementation of ADR decision-making.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Criminal Justice, Reconciliation, Disputes, and Shimglina
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

69. The curbing of the collective voices of workers in Ethiopia’s state-led industrialisation: The case of the garment sector

Author:: Mohammed Seid Ali
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: A state-led industrialisation drive inspired by the East Asian ‘developmental state’ ideology is at the core of Ethiopia’s industrial policymaking. Yet, scholarship on the implications of Ethiopia’s state-led industrialisation on the collective voices of local industrial workers is rare. Hence, this article argues that Ethiopia’s state-led industrialisation has firmly stood for strong business-state alliances, thereby curbing the collective voices of local industrial workers. Using qualitative empirical data, the article attempts to address the research gap and contribute to the existing debate by examining why and how the country’s state-led industrialisation has been operating in this context since 2005. Analysis of the findings indicates that facilitating industrial catch-up is at the centre of the country’s industrial development policymaking. Also that, the voice of the workers has been considered as a threat to foreign direct investment (FDI). As a result of the policy, the Ethiopian government employs diverse de facto or de jure labour control mechanisms, exceptionally against the associational rights of workers in the garment exporting industries across the country’s industrial parks (IPs). Moreover, employing industries have enforced various forms of administrative and punitive measures to subdue the collective voices of their workers. Hence, Ethiopia’s activist industrial policy must navigate a reasonable balance between facilitating industrial catch-up and ensuring labour standards for inclusive, peaceful, and sustainable industrial labour relations.
Topic:: Government, Labor Issues, Industrialization, and Garment Industry
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

70. The Tigray Crisis: The Ethiopian government’s incessant attempts to resolve the internal conflict militarily

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The conflict in Ethiopia continues despite international appeals to put an end to it. The government forces were able to slow down the progress of the forces of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front over the last two weeks, and to control some areas. However, the main areas of Afar and Amhara remained under the control of the Tigrayan rebels, who managed to form a broader alliance with other rebel groups.
Topic:: Security, Government, Conflict, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:: Africa, Ethiopia, and Tigray

71. Successive Setbacks: Can the United Front seize control of Addis Ababa?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: From October 31 to November 3, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) managed to achieve strategic gains at the expense of the Ethiopian government, as it continues to draw closer to the Ethiopian capital, especially after its seizing control of the cities of Dessie and Kombolcha. Meanwhile, contrary to regional and international appeals, the Ethiopian Prime Minister continues to mobilize citizens to fight, refusing a ceasefire and any negotiations with the Tigray Front.
Topic:: Government, Non State Actors, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa, Ethiopia, and Tigray

72. Gender and Extremism in Ethiopia

Author:: Hilina Berhanu Degefa
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Institute of Peace (EIP)
Abstract:: This paper endeavored to provide a gender analysis on the role of women in violent extremism (VE) and government-led efforts on Preventing and Countering Violent Extremism (P/CVE) in Ethiopia. It draws its findings and recommendations from three main research methods: a literature review, observation, and one-on-one semi-structured interviews with actors involved in VE and P/CVE efforts across six Regional States in Ethiopia. The study firstly examines the role of women in extremism in Ethiopia, emphasising how and why women are involved in VE, including the gendered nature of association with VE groups. Among those that have been researched are the hardening of in-group identity, sense of community and seeking recognition, romanticism and fascination with a charismatic leader, as well as a sense of victimhood as a result of government action or inaction, including gender-specific violations. All are contributing factors; mostly compounded and cumulatively present in individual cases. Secondly, the study engages with the current standing P/CVE efforts led by the government, analysing the types of womanhood that the state mobilises and produces in the name of, and as part of, P/CVE efforts. While the research has been less conclusive in establishing a commonly agreed-upon definition of VE from respondents, it recommends the need for intersectionality-informed gender analysis in understanding women’s participation in VE as well as in the designing and implementation of P/CVE measures
Topic:: Governance, Women, Leadership, Gender Based Violence, and Gender
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

73. Inter-Communal Tensions, Violence and Conflicts in the Time of a Pandemic in Ethiopia

Author:: Yihenew Alemu Tesfaye, Fasika Gedif, Kedir Jemal, and Meseret Asefa
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Institute of Peace (EIP)
Abstract:: The ongoing conflict in northern Ethiopia−in the Tigray region and adjacent Amhara and Afar zones−has controlled the last twelve months discussions and analyses of Ethiopian politics. The magnitude of the conflict, associated humanitarian crisis, and the news about the crisis (sometimes with deliberate circulations of misinformation) have made this the most significant political challenge of the nation since the 1998 Ethio-Eritrea war. However, recent political developments in Ethiopia feed into each other, and it remains imperative to keep examining continued inter-communal tensions, violence and conflicts in Ethiopia and analysing the ramification of the Covid-19 pandemic on outstanding and novel inter-communal tensions and conflicts in the country. As this report shows, political developments are, directly or indirectly, linked with the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, which has escalated hitherto mostly localised inter-communal tensions and fueled armed conflicts in Ethiopia. The primary aim of this study is to investigate the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on Ethiopia’s political situation and inter-communal tensions, violence, and extremism. By taking cases from the Metekel zone in Benishangul-Gumuz region, from the central and west Gondar zone (largely the Chilga district) in the Amhara region, and the east Hararghe zone in the Oromia region, this report discusses what occurred during incidents since the onset of the pandemic, how sources attribute the causes of these incidents, and how the narratives of sources, directly or indirectly, implicate the pandemic in triggering or aggravating these incidents.
Topic:: Conflict, Violence, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Communal Areas
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

74. Exporting out of China or out of Africa? Automation versus Relocation in the Global Clothing Industry

Author:: Tilman Altenburg, Xiao Chen, Wilfried Lütkenhorst, Cornelia Staritz, and Lindsay Whitfield
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: The Discussion Paper examines the opportunities that the rising industrial wages in China will bring for Africa. China has been the industrial workbench of the global economy for decades. However, its competitive advantages are waning, particularly for labour-intensive assembly activities in the clothing, shoe, electronics and toy industries. The Chinese government estimates that up to 81 million low-cost industrial jobs are at risk of relocation to other countries - unless China can keep the companies in the country through automation. Against this background, three complementary studies were carried out. The first examines where the automation technology for clothing and footwear production stands today; the second, how clothing companies in China deal with the cost pressure: to what extent they automate, relocate within China or abroad and how great is the interest in Africa as a production location. The third part is devoted to Africa’s competitiveness in clothing assemly, with empirical findings from Ethiopia and Madagascar. The Discussion Paper shows that the manufacture of clothing can already be robotized today, but that for sewing, robotization will probably remain more expensive than manual labor in the next 15-20 years. China’s companies are investing heavily in the automation of all other production processes and at the same time shifting production to neighbouring Asian countries. In Africa, only Ethiopia is currently competitive in the manufacture of clothing, and here too there are significant institutional difficulties in absorbing large amounts of direct investment.
Topic:: Industrial Policy, Labor Issues, Foreign Direct Investment, Exports, and Automation
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Germany, Ethiopia, and Madagascar

75. Building Blocks and Challenges for the Implementation of the Global Compact on Refugees in Africa

Author:: Sergio Carciotto and Filppio Ferraro
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:: Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:: Forced displacement continues to be a major challenge to human security across the globe. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), the global population of forcibly displaced people increased by 2.3 million people in 2018, and by the end of the year, more than 70 million individuals were forcibly displaced worldwide (UNHCR 2019a). UNHCR also estimated that, in 2018, 13.6 million people were newly displaced as a result of conflicts and droughts (ibid.). Building on the predicament of global sustainability and the 2030 agenda for sustainable development, the Global Compact on Refugees (GCR) is a framework based on four strategic objectives: to (1) ease pressures on host countries, (2) enhance refugee self-reliance, (3) expand access to third-country solutions, and (4) support conditions in countries of origin for return in safety and dignity (UNHCR 2018; UN General Assembly 2019). The GCR urges the international community to respond comprehensively and innovatively to the plight of refugees, and to make a paradigm shift in global humanitarian aid to emphasize refugee self-reliance and livelihoods. One of the risks of such a nonbinding and thin agreement, however, is that the GCR will give rise to a bureaucratic process that “does not come even close to dependably addressing the operational deficits of the refugee regime” (Hathaway 2019, 594). This article looks closely at the prospects for the GCR in sub-Saharan Africa based on the need to shift from a humanitarian system of “care and maintenance” to comprehensive and effective development responses to refugee crises. It also discusses some of these experiences and best practices to promote a resilience-based development approach. It recognizes that development initiatives implemented or still to be implemented under the normative framework of the GCR and the Comprehensive Refugee Response Framework (CRRF) are subject to a multiyear planning and implementation cycle. Therefore, this article does not intend to evaluate their efficacy or measure progress under the GCR, but rather to identify key challenges and to highlight achievements and promising initiatives in sub-Saharan Africa. It particularly focuses on implementation and rollout of the CRRF in Chad, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, Uganda, and Zambia in Africa.
Topic:: United Nations, Refugees, Displacement, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Uganda, Kenya, Africa, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Somalia, Zambia, Chad, Sahara, and Sub-Saharan Africa

76. World economy: Liquidity injections buy time for vulnerable economies

Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Economy, Outlook, Forecast, and Finance outlook
Political Geography:: Uganda, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Japan, China, Sudan, Indonesia, Turkey, Ukraine, Moldova, Canada, India, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, South Korea, Kuwait, Tajikistan, France, South Africa, Brazil, Argentina, Yemen, Sri Lanka, Germany, Cuba, Saudi Arabia, Romania, Hungary, Australia, Albania, Italy, Mozambique, Sierra Leone, Zimbabwe, Ethiopia, Mexico, Jordan, Bahrain, Singapore, Tunisia, Chile, Oman, Angola, Zambia, Ghana, New Zealand, Ecuador, Malawi, Namibia, Mauritius, Panama, Belarus, United States of America, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Seychelles, Democratic Republic of Congo, UK, Russian Federation, Syrian Arab Republic, Tanzania, United Republic of, Venezuela, and Bolivarian Republic of

77. Ethiopia’s Transition: Implications for the Horn of Africa and Red Sea Region

Author:: Jason Mosley
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:: The intersection of two significant trends are affecting the regional dynamics of the Horn of Africa: the political transition underway in Ethiopia since 2018 and evolving Red Sea and Gulf security dynamics. Ethiopia’s transition has affected its relations in the Horn of Africa and the broader Red Sea region. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have taken a much more assertive approach to regional security since 2015, contributing to a major diplomatic rift with Qatar since 2017. Elucidating how states in the Horn of Africa are affected by and responding to external influences largely hinges on understanding the Ethiopian transition. The implications for the future of regional integration in the Horn of Africa must also be considered.
Topic:: Security, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Africa, Ethiopia, Indian Ocean, and Horn of Africa

78. Civil War in the Horn of Africa?: Four Possible Trajectories for Ethiopia

Author:: James Barnett
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: A civil war is erupting in Ethiopia—Africa’s second most populous state, a geopolitical fulcrum in the volatile Red Sea arena, and the seat of the African Union (AU). The question now is whether a ceasefire can quickly be brokered that would, in the best case, serve as the basis for a broader national dialogue aimed at stabilizing the country’s political transition; or whether the situation will devolve into a multisided conflict that draws in neighboring states and further destabilizes what is already one of the world’s most fragile regions. As of this writing, the latter unfortunately seems more likely, but there is still hope for a ceasefire, particularly if Ethiopia’s regional and international partners make a concerted push for de-escalation. One should not use the term “civil war” lightly, but this appears to be the course that Ethiopia is on. While in recent years the country has suffered from intercommunal clashes, assassinations, a coup attempt, and a low-level insurgency, this is the first time that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government has faced a direct challenge from a well-armed state within the state. The stakes are high. With a population of over 100 million, the United States Institute of Peace’s senior study group on the Red Sea warns that Ethiopia’s disintegration would constitute “the largest state collapse in modern history.”
Topic:: International Relations, Civil War, Geopolitics, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa, Ethiopia, and Horn of Africa

79. Post-workshop Briefing Paper: Preventing a COVID-19 Crisis in Africa

Author:: Atif Choudhury, Yawei Liu, and Ian Pilcher
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Carter Center
Abstract:: In May 2020, the Carter Center’s China Program partnered with the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR) and the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) to organize a virtual workshop on Africa-U.S.-China cooperation on COVID-19 response. The workshop brought together a range of experts from the U.S, China, Ethiopia, Burundi, Kenya, and South Africa to discuss the public health impact and wider policy implications of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent. Emory University’s Global Health Institute and The Hunger Project also helped identify speakers and moderate panels.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Kenya, Africa, United States, China, Asia, South Africa, North America, Ethiopia, and Burundi

80. African Marxist Military Regimes, Rise and Fall: Internal Conditioners and International Dimensions

Author:: Paulo Fagundes Visentini
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:: The historical dimension is used in a limited or selective way in the analysis of contemporary international relations, and it needs to be developed. Recovering the theme and the period from 1970-1980 means, therefore, both a historical and a theoretical matter. International Relations, as an area dominated by political science, has been a field of study marked by theorizations with little empirical basis and instrumental character. Without the State building, of ruling elites and social transformations promoted by revolutionary processes, the situation of Angola, Mozambique and Ethiopia, for example, would not have allowed their current international prominence.
Topic:: International Relations, Socialism/Marxism, Authoritarianism, and History
Political Geography:: Africa, Mozambique, Ethiopia, and Angola

81. Towards Anticipatory Information Systems and Action: Notes on Early Warning and Early Action in East Africa

Author:: Daniel Maxwell and Peter Hailey
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
Abstract:: Despite humanitarian information being more available than ever, confusion persists as to what the information means, how to analyze it and turn it into actionable evidence, and how to ensure that evidence-based actions are actually undertaken on a timely basis. The key points of confusion and issues include: The difference between current status information, projections of populations in need, and early warning of threats or hazards. The difference between “hard” numbers (implying things that have already happened and can be counted) versus probabilistic information (implying things that are likely, but not certain, to happen). Linkages, or the lack thereof, between information systems and policy or programmatic action to anticipate, mitigate, or respond to a shock or worsening situation. Despite the fact that conflict is the most common factor driving extreme humanitarian crises, conflict analysis is the weakest part of early warning and information systems. The information systems do not (or minimally) engage with the communities at risk of shocks or resulting humanitarian crises. This paper reviews these and a number of additional issues with contemporary humanitarian information and early warning systems. While the cases focus on the East Africa region, they have broader implications as well.
Topic:: Disaster Relief, Humanitarian Aid, Food, Famine, Food Security, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Uganda, Kenya, North Africa, Ethiopia, Somalia, and South Sudan

82. R2P Monitor, Issue 54, 15 November 2020

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 54 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Cameroon, China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali and Burkina Faso, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Venezuela, Yemen, Central African Republic, Ethiopia, Mozambique, Côte d’Ivoire, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories, Libya, Nagorno-Karabakh (Armenia/Azerbaijan), Nigeria and South Sudan.
Topic:: International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, China, Israel, Libya, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Mozambique, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Mali, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Côte d'Ivoire, Global Focus, Burkina Faso, and Nagorno-Karabakh

83. Predictors of school dropout across Ethiopia, India, Peru and Vietnam

Author:: Santiago Cueto, Claudia Felipe, and Juan Leon
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Group for the Analysis of Development (GRADE)
Abstract:: In this paper the authors utilize the five rounds of Young Lives household surveys across four countries (Ethiopia, India, Peru and Vietnam) to study the characteristics of children who had dropped out of school by 22 years of age. While most children in the longitudinal sample go to primary school, they tend to drop out more often and earlier in Ethiopia. In India most children complete the early grades of school but drop out later, particularly in grades 11 and 13. Researchers find that in all countries, except Vietnam, there is a considerable number of children who drop out of school but at some point return to it, either to complete secondary or drop out again. The reasons provided by children for dropping out across the countries are oftentimes related to poverty: for example, the need to work, or care or provide for family. The multivariate analysis shows that indeed in many cases the wealth level of the family at an early age predicts later dropout, as does maternal education level, students’ early skills and residence in certain regions of each country. There are also some variations across countries; for example, boys are more likely to drop out of school in Ethiopia and Vietnam, and children who have repeated a grade are more likely to drop out of school in Peru. However, having high educational aspirations at early ages seems to be a protective factor against dropping out. This suggests that the value that children place on education may be an important preventative factor against dropping out. Overall, these results suggest the need to act early through education and social protection interventions to target young children who are at risk of dropping out, and the follow their trajectories, providing support as needed to specific groups and even individuals, so that all children may fulfill their right to complete at least secondary education.
Topic:: Education and Children
Political Geography:: Africa, India, Asia, Vietnam, Ethiopia, and Peru

84. 'No Place for Me Here': The challenges of Ethiopian male return migrants

Author:: Adam Moe Fejerskov and Meron Zeleke
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Every year, hundreds of thousands of migrants return to Ethiopia from abroad, many of them forced. The arduous irregular journeys that many Ethiopian migrants take, particularly men, expose them to extreme levels of physical, psychological and sexual violence. Building on interviews with Ethiopian male returnees, this new DIIS Report documents both the inhuman conditions of migration that most of these men are faced with during their travels, but also the difficulties of returning to a place that may not be felt as ‘home’ anymore. The report shows how processes of returning are neither easy or pleasant as most returnees are faced with social stigma, economic hardship and traumas from their migration journeys. The report questions the very notion of re-integration. The life-altering and irreparable effects of migration for Ethiopian men, seldom for the better, means that what was before will never be again. As such, there are no processes of development, forms of treatment or possibilities of employment that can bring one back to how things were. That does not mean that support in adjusting to a new life after migration journeys is not possible, it simply means that the objective can never be to reinstate migrants ‘back’ into their communities with any expectation that they can resume social relations or positions like things were before. The report is financed by the Danish Red Cross.
Topic:: Economics, Gender Issues, Migration, and Men
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

85. The Traumas of Ethiopian Male Migrants: Re-integration efforts must put vulnerabilities at the centre

Author:: Adam Moe Fejerskov and Meron Zeleke
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Every year, several hundred thousand migrants return to Ethiopia, where they struggle to integrate back into society. They must deal with the traumatic events of their journeys while also facing social stigma and exclusion. KEY FINDINGS ■ All Ethiopian migrants using irregular routes have experienced or witnessed violence and trauma ■ Sexual violence and abuse are widespread among Ethiopian male migrants yet taboo, and psychosocial support should address the vulnerabilities of men ■ Livelihood interventions should address the problem of social stigma ■ Re-integration is difficult as social positions and relationships will never be as they were before migration
Topic:: Development, Migration, Border Control, and Fragile States
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

86. Ending the Dangerous Standoff in Southern Somalia

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: What’s new? Hundreds of troops loyal to the Federal Government of Somalia, on one side, and Jubaland regional state, on the other, are locked in a tense showdown in the Gedo region of southern Somalia. Clashes between them have already resulted in fatalities and uprooted thousands from their homes. Why does it matter? Neighbouring Ethiopia and Kenya, which are both troop contributors to the African Union’s peacekeeping mission in Somalia, seek to avoid direct confrontation but respectively support the opposing federal and Jubaland administrations. The situation plays into the hands of the Al-Shabaab Islamist insurgency, which is further entrenching its presence in Gedo. What should be done? The African Union, along with the eastern African sub-regional bloc, the Intergovernmental Authority for Development, and Somalia’s bilateral partners, should lean on Ethiopia and Kenya to push the two sides to de-escalate tensions. Talks would allow the sides to refocus energies on stemming Al-Shabaab’s gains.
Topic:: Conflict, Negotiation, Islamism, Al Shabaab, and African Union
Political Geography:: Kenya, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Horn of Africa

87. Ethiopia’s Challenging Path to the 2020 Ballots

Author:: Anwar A. Bashir
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: Since Abiy become the new prime minister of Ethiopia, Ethiopian politics has taken a new turn. He has released political prisoners, promoted media freedom and increased inclusion of women into the political arena. He has also invited the opposition to the discussion table, and reduced tension in the 18-year feud between Ethiopia and Eritrea. As a result, some politically-oriented Ethiopians believe Abiy has taken exquisite and peerless actions. There are also several reprehensible issues, which have started under his tenure. Communal violence has peaked whilst agreements with opposition groups was met with skepticism. Moreover, the number of internally displaced people (IDPs) in Ethiopia has reached a zenith due to the ethnic violence, for which human rights organizations have heavily criticized Ethiopia’s leadership. Several political analysts note that Abiy’s transformations are only a veneer, because his agreement with oppositions groups are yet to be implemented, especially with the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF), the oldest opposition in the country. This skepticism from the opposition has resulted in a new coalition party aimed at undermining the incumbent government in the upcoming Ethiopian 2020 election. Ogaden Liberation Front (ONLF), the second oldest opposition has complained of mistreatment by the leadership of the Somali region. Outspoken opposition politician Lidetu Ayalew of the Ethiopian Democratic Party has asserted, “Ethiopia as a nation is not ready to hold general parliamentary elections.” On the other hand, Abiy disbanded the longest ruling party in the country, the EPRDF, an action that has resulted in a widening dichotomy within his inner-circle. Jawar, an Oromo media tycoon, has tremendous support from the youth, especially since the Oromo region has boycotted Abiy’s policies. With all these various issues and considerations, there is much anticipation as to how the upcoming elections will unfold.
Topic:: Government, Elections, Conflict, and Borders
Political Geography:: Africa, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Eritrea

88. Africa’s Thorny Horn

Author:: Giovanni Carbone, Michele D'Alessandro, Zemalak A. Ayele, Giovanni Putoto, David Styan, Michael Woldemariam, Afyare A. Elmi, Abdi M. Hersi, Aleksi Ylönen, Alexander Meckelburg, and Camillo Casola
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: In the context of the disruption caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, the Horn of Africa remains one of the most dynamic and intriguing regions on the African continent. The political processes currently under way – including the recent conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region – have deep implications that reflect on the domestic equilibria within the area’s core states - Ethiopia itself, but also Eritrea, Somalia and Djibouti – as well as on the relations among them. The nature and extent of involvement by external, non-African players is bound to be affected too. How is the Horn of Africa changing, following the leadership transition in Ethiopia? What are the main political and security prospects for the region and for the states belonging to it? And how will ongoing dynamics impact on European political strategies?
Topic:: Hegemony, Geopolitics, State Building, Domestic Policy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Somalia, Eritrea, and Horn of Africa

89. Protecting Stateless Refugees In The United States

Author:: David Baluarte
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:: Miliyon is a stateless, failed asylum seeker residing in the United States. He initially sought refugee protection after he fled Ethiopia, where he had faced serious abuse because of his Eritrean ethnicity. Immigration authorities denied him asylum after concluding that the Ethiopian government’s deportation of his Eritrean father, the seizure of his family’s land and business, and the detention and torture of Miliyon himself constituted a property dispute not protected under U.S. refugee law. Miliyon fought this denial of protection over the next decade through various appeals processes but ultimately failed. At that point, he applied for a passport at the Ethiopian embassy in Washington, D.C. and resigned himself to return home and face whatever fate awaited him. Consular officials, however, refused to issue him a passport. Despite never having set foot in Eritrea or having any other connection to the country, Miliyon was told that he was Eritrean, not Ethiopian. He was informed that he had no right to return to Ethiopia, his country of birth and the only place he had ever lived. This led the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) to declare Miliyon stateless. As a victim of discriminatory denationalization, Miliyon tried to renew his application for refugee protection. Notwithstanding the fact that Miliyon had endured this persecutory treatment, U.S. authorities once again denied his claim.
Topic:: Refugee Issues, Immigrants, Deportation, Protected People, and Stateless Population
Political Geography:: Africa, United States, and Ethiopia

90. Threats to Ethiopia’s Fragile Democratic Transition

Author:: Patrick Wight
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: Highlighting the precarious standing of any regime attempting to transition towards democracy in a multi-ethnic state that is defined by relatively weak institutions.
Topic:: Governance, Democracy, Fragile States, and Institutions
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

91. Ethnic Conflict under Ethnic Federalism

Author:: Biruk Shewadeg
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: Investigating whether Ethiopia's political system divides rather than unites people by creating mutual suspicion and instituted ethnic dynamics.
Topic:: Nationalism, Ethnicity, Federalism, Identity, and Centralization
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

92. Indigenous Community-based Natural Resources Management Mechanisms

Author:: Gashaw Ayferam Endaylalu
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: Prior to the advent of so-called scientific knowledge and systems, indigenous knowledge was the single-most important aspect of human development utilised by communities across the world to sustain their well-being. With the advance of technology, indigenous knowledge is often mistakenly labelled as unscientific, illogical, irrational, traditional and a development impediment.1 Such conceptions of indigenous knowledge resulted in the favouring of scientifically driven approaches, which are mainly Eurocentric, as the main solutions to the development–democracy challenges of underdeveloped nations. Indigenous knowledge is also usually viewed as valueless to sustainable development. Consequently, newly independent states in Africa, South America and Asia have followed the adoption of a “one-fits-all” approach to development. Unfortunately, the adoption of foreign-born and -grown development and democracy models without integration into indigenous development and values creates political and development uncertainties in Third World countries. Policymakers and development planners have thus failed to achieve sustainable development. A dependency syndrome of developing states on Western fabricated development models has thus emerged. Nevertheless, the last three decades have witnessed a paradigm shift from the total sidelining of indigenous knowledge to the importance of promoting, empowering and linking it to solutions. A new area of interest is indigenous natural resource management mechanisms. As mentioned previously, conservationists and policymakers downgraded indigenous resource management mechanisms. According to Zelealem and Williams:2 “[R]ecent interest by conservationists in indigenous resource management systems, however, has arisen from the failure of many other types of conservation initiatives and the search for viable and sustainable alternatives to current models for managing resource use.” In this regard, Ethiopia is very rich in indigenous knowledge systems, practice, knowledge creation (such as Qine), architecture, medicine, agriculture, cottage industry, conflict resolution, governance, natural resource management mechanisms, terracing experience (of the Konso people) and building (of houses from stone in North Shewa and Tigray). However, these indigenous knowledge systems and practices are not systematically identified, studied, documented and utilised in a manner that meets sustainable development goals and improves quality of life. The indigenous knowledge system in Ethiopia is an unseen, underutilised and neglected resource with incomparable potential for development.
Topic:: Environment, Governance, Democracy, Indigenous, and Community
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

93. Eritrean refugees struggle after the peace agreement with Ethiopia: Peace and Plight

Author:: Hans Lucht and Tekalign Ayalew Mengiste
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Following the 2018 peace agreement between Ethiopia and Eritrea more than 60,000 Eritrean refugees arrived in Ethiopia. Thousands continue to arrive every month. They live under harsh conditions that call for humanitarian action. KEY TAKEAWAYS: Vulnerable Eritrean refugees in Ethiopia, women, elderly, disabled, and children need urgent humanitarian assistance, including shelters, food, water, sanitation, energy, and health care. Funds are needed for UNHCR, partner organizations, and ARRA to address continuous refugee arrivals in Ethiopia and the challenges posed by COVID-19. Donor countries should put pressure on Ethiopia to reintroduce prima facie recognition and allow access to protection, while resettlement quotas abroad should be increased. Humanitarian support and emergency shelters should be provided in transit locations for smuggled and trafficked Eritreans in need of urgent protection.
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid, Treaties and Agreements, Refugees, Peace, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa, Ethiopia, and Eritrea

94. The praxis of combating VAW in Ethiopia: A political interpretation

Author:: Dereje Feyissa
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Violence against Women (VAW) is among the human rights violations that women face globally every day. The roots of VAW lie in historically unequal power relations between men and women and pervasive discrimination against women in both the public and private spheres. VAW is a global phenomenon that is not limited to certain cultures or countries. However, the form it takes is context-specific. In Ethiopia VAW is pervasive, occurring at three levels as identified by the UN: family; community; and the state. Despite policy pronouncements and the implementation of some practical measures, VAW is still prevalent in Ethiopia. This new Working Paper by Dereje Feyissa, adjunct associate professor, Addis Ababa University, offers a political interpretation to explain the gap between policy and practice on VAW in Ethiopia. Specifically, it argues that the gap between policy and practice lies in the type of regime in Ethiopia, which has undermined the political will and limited the space for gender activism. Historically, this has been evident ideologically (the Marxist frame of the ‘women question’ and the vanguardism connected with it), but also in respect to political legitimacy (ethnic federalism and the priority given to cultural rights), entrenched authoritarianism and the limited space available for gender activism by women’s right groups. The Working Paper is published as part of the international research programme GLOW – Global Norms and Violence Against Women in Ethiopia – financed by the Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Topic:: Development, Diplomacy, International Organization, Poverty, Women, Inequality, and Gender Based Violence
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

95. The Emergence of Another African Conflict: Egypt, Ethiopia and Geopolitics of the Renaissance Dam

Author:: Mehari Taddele Maru
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: Very few consider that despite the possibility of conflict or cooperation, such changes in the exploitation of the Nile River resources are due to changing relations and the need to address long-standing unfair and hegemonic approaches to trans-boundary resource sharing.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Regional Cooperation, Natural Resources, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Africa, North Africa, Ethiopia, and Egypt

96. The Impact of COVID-19 on Democratic Elections in Africa

Author:: Michael Asiedu
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:: Almost all African countries rolled out significant measure in response to Covid-19. From border closures through to the use of personal protective equipment (PPEs) to restricted gatherings and contact tracing, a combination of diverse public health safety strategies was employed. These same strategies nonetheless would make preparations toward holding smooth and timely elections cumbersome. Ghana’s electoral commissioner announced an indefinite postponement of its voter registration exercise, it is still in consultation with stakeholders on carrying out the exercise with only six months to its presidential and parliamentary elections if the timeline stays the same. Niger also suspended its voter registration exercise; Ethiopia postponed its elections entirely. Other countries that have had some forms of election postponement include Zimbabwe, Nigeria and Kenya.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Crisis Management, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Kenya, Africa, Zimbabwe, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Ghana

97. After Flood and Revolution: Sudanese Responses to a Lagging Transitional Government

Author:: Isma'il Kushkush, Mohamed Solman, and Jérôme Tubiana
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: In 2018, the Sudanese Revolution gained prominence on social media and drew international attention to the movement taking place against Omar Al-Bashir’s 30 year dictatorship in the country. Widespread protests were sparked by drastic policies meant to prevent economic collapse such as the slashing of bread and fuel subsidies. Two years later, grievances remain as Sudan continues to face a multitude of issues including record breaking floods, poor governance, incoming Ethiopians and Eritreans fleeing conflict, and persistent militia violence. The Sudanese people have begun to lose patience with the Transitional Government’s inability to sufficiently reform the system and respond to crises. How has Sudan adapted to both environmental and political upheaval? What changes have occured since Omar Al-Bashir was ousted? How does Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok plan to move forward with the reconstruction of Sudan’s constitutional system, and how could the violence in Ethiopia and Eritrea affect that? In what ways, do we see Sudan’s relationship with foreign allies changing amidst this reconstruction? In this panel, the Middle East Institute (MEI) brings together experts to explore what the future of Sudan looks like, and what the revolution succeeded and failed to bring the people.
Topic:: Environment, Politics, Social Media, Protests, and Transition
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Eritrea

98. Conflict and Cooperation in the Eastern Nile: The Role of Business

Author:: Rawia Tawfik
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Social Science Research Council
Abstract:: The discussion of the role of business in resource-based conflicts in Afri- ca in general and the Nile basin in particular, has been dominated by two approaches. The first approach emphasizes the role of business in exacer- bating domestic and transboundary conflicts by engaging in land and wa- ter grabs.1 In the Nile basin, large-scale land acquisitions by foreign cor- porations have often been considered as a means of exploiting land and water resources, and a factor that increases uncertainty and complexity in hydropolitical relations in the basin.2 This investigation of foreign invest- ments can be linked to a broader literature on promoting good governance of natural resources. This literature focuses on increasing transparency and accountability of all stakeholders, including non-state actors involved in the use of natural resources and ensuring the sustainable management of these resources.3 In contrast, the second approach, which focuses more on transboundary business cooperation, argues that economic cooperation, not only between state actors, but also between corporations could de-escalate conflicts over shared water resources. According to this approach, the private sector can act as ‘an agent of change’ by creating shared interests across borders and engaging in confidence-building activities.4 International organizations and funding institutions have supported multi-stakeholder forums to strength- en transnational cooperation between non-state actors and pushed for public-private partnerships to implement projects at transboundary levels.5 In the Nile basin, inter-riparian investments have been suggested as a po- tential means of reducing tensions through trading virtual water (i.e. the volume of water used in the production of commodities, goods, or services) from water-rich upstream countries, especially Ethiopia to water-scarce downstream countries, especially Egypt.6 It has been suggested that the more Egypt invests in upstream countries (and Sudan) for domestic agri- cultural production, the less likely it would resort to military means against these countries to secure access to the Nile waters to feed its own popula- tion. This assumption indicates that while inter-riparian investments may increase conflict within receiving countries, it may reduce conflicts between these countries.7 This paper contributes to this debate by examining the actual roles played by Egyptian businesses in the hydro-political and hydro-economic relations between the three Eastern Nile countries and the factors that affect these roles. It argues that the two approaches criticizing business's contribution to conflict or applauding its contribution to cooperation have not adequately captured the complexity and variety of roles played by business. It also does not adequately summarize the possible contradictory impacts of these roles on conflict and cooperation between riparian states. These approaches also downplay the impact of state-business relations and of the basin context, especially the history of hydro-political relations, on these roles. The paper will also address four main questions: what are the motivations of Egyptian businesses investing in Ethiopia and Sudan? To what extent do tensions over the utilization of the Nile waters factor into risk assessment of investments in the two countries? What roles do Egyptian public and pri- vate corporations play in promoting economic cooperation and reducing the potential of conflict, or increasing tensions between Egypt on the one hand, and Ethiopia and Sudan on the other hand? What factors affect these roles and how? And how can the business community better contribute to reduc- ing tensions over the utilization of water resources and promoting wider economic cooperation between Eastern Nile countries?
Topic:: Privatization, Water, Business, Conflict, and Private Sector
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Egypt

99. An Analysis of the use of Chemical Pesticides and their Impact on Yields, Farmer Income and Agricultural Sustainability: The Case for Smallholder Farmers in Ethiopia

Author:: Aparna Rao and Risa Morimoto
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:: In economic theory, the agricultural sector plays an undisputed role in growth, development and poverty reduction in a country. The sector is pivotal for a vast majority of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), given the large number of people dependent on agriculture for their livelihood. With the constraints on land expansion and the dual threat of climate change and an ever increasing population, agricultural productivity has become a key matter of concern in agricultural economics. Given this, a vast majority of literature focuses on improving productivity to meet food demand at any cost. A large percentage of it is focused on the use of pesticides, pre-harvest, to eradicate pests and diseases that lead to losses in the produce. As a result, there has been a significant increase in global pesticide usage over the last few years.
Topic:: Agriculture, Development, Economics, Poverty, Economic Theory, Sustainability, and Farming
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

100. Conflict and Cooperation: Transitions in Modern Ethiopian-Sudanese Relations

Author:: John Young
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: The Nile River bears considerably on inter-state relations among the countries through which it flows; with struggles over control of its waters driving the political undercurrents of the region. Ethiopia and Sudan exemplify such relations, shaped as much by the ebb and flow of the Nile as the rise and fall of the regimes that have governed them. This Briefing Paper by the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) project analyzes this relationship and its place in a politically dynamic and evolving region. Conflict and Cooperation: Transitions in Modern Ethiopian–Sudanese Relations finds that the cold war both shaped and was itself shaped by the conflicts within and between the two countries. Following the end of the cold war, relations considerably improved under President Omar al-Bashir in Sudan and Prime Minister Meles Zenawi in Ethiopia. However, the recent emergence of new governments in both countries does not guarantee a cordial relationship in the future as on-going political reforms, internal threats, and external influences from powerful states weigh heavily on both countries.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, and Ethiopia

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS