Political Geography: Eastern Europe

1. A Possible Ceasefire in Ukraine in 2025: Is the OSCE on Board?

Author:: Loïc Simonet
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:: “Where is the OSCE during Russia’s war on Ukraine?” asked Pál Dunay (Dunay, 2022). To be honest, not in the spotlight. However, changing political realities in 2025 might provide the Vienna organization with renewed legitimacy, fifty years after the signature of the Helsinki Accords that served as its groundwork. After more than 1,000 days of attrition war, several factors may bring the conflict in Eastern Europe to a turning point. Despite both parties’ recent military escalation, there seems to be no end in sight on the battlefield. Neither side has the resources to achieve a decisive victory, a situation that academics describe as “mutually hurting stalemates” (Slantchev & Goemans, 2025). Militarily, Russia appears to be on the ascendancy, but Putin’s goal of defeating the Ukrainian armed forces in open combat and occupying more Ukrainian territory is a “strategic impossibility” (Dickson & Holowinsky, 2024). It is doubtful that 2025, which marks the 80th anniversary of the Soviet victory over Nazism, will coincide with a triumphal parade on Moscow’s Red Square. The resilience and morale shown by the Ukrainian armed forces deserve admiration and tribute, but Kyiv knows that it will not recover Crimea and the Donbas by force. After more than two years of grinding conflict, the weariness of its population is becoming evident. Because neither side can achieve its ultimate goals, new approaches to ending the Ukraine war are beginning to surface. Compared to only a few months ago, more actors are ready to look at alternative scenarios.
Topic:: Politics, Ceasefire, OSCE, Escalation, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

2. Armenian Foreign Policy in 2025: The Return of Geography

Author:: Benyamin Poghosyan
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:: Russia’s advances in Ukraine in 2024 and the first months of 2025, coupled with the new US administration’s decision to enter direct negotiations with Russia to end the war, have increased the likelihood that Russia, in the short- to mid-term, will expand its influence in the post-Soviet space, including the South Caucasus. The United States’ shifting focus from Europe to Asia–Pacific, diverging policy views between Washington and Brussels, and the socioeconomic challenges European Union member states face will likely diminish the role of the United States and the EU in the region. Meanwhile, ad hoc partnerships and minilateral groupings prioritizing regionalism prevail over larger, more formal multilateral coalitions. Armenia can only adapt its foreign policy in 2025 to the evolving regional geopolitical landscape and the looming risk of regional instability. The primary goals of Armenian foreign policy should be: ● Continuing negotiations with Azerbaijan and Turkey; ● Deepening cooperation with Georgia and Iran; ● Establishing a new modus operandi with Russia; ● Exploring the establishment of minilateral groupings1 ; ● Readjusting relations with the United States and the European Union while maintaining the positive momentum of recent years. This approach will allow Armenia to safeguard its sovereignty, navigate shifting power dynamics, and seize emerging opportunities while minimizing the risk of antagonizing regional and global powers.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Sovereignty, European Union, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, Caucasus, Eastern Europe, and Armenia

3. The Crisis of Belarusian Sovereignty

Author:: Kaspar Pucek
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Belarus is facing a potentially existential crisis as Russia’s growing influence threatens its existence as a sovereign state. This is to a significant extent a result of Western sanctions and diplomatic isolation. European policymakers should look for opportunities to strength Belarusian sovereignty and strategic autonomy through pragmatic engagement. Pragmatic engagement should focus primarily on normalising diplomatic relations and targeted sanctions relief.
Topic:: Sovereignty, Sanctions, Pragmatism, Foreign Influence, and Political Engagement
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, Eastern Europe, and Belarus

4. Digital Technologies in the Election Cycle – The Case of Albanian Parliamentary Elections 2025

Author:: Institute for Democracy and Mediation (IDM)
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institute for Democracy and Mediation (IDM)
Abstract:: As digital platforms and AI reshape societies worldwide, their impact on elections is increasingly profound. This brief explores how digital tools were used in Albania’s 2025 Parliamentary Elections, examining the roles of the Central Election Committee, political parties, candidates, and civil society. While technology offers opportunities for voter education, transparency, and participation, it also brings risks such as misinformation, unethical campaigning, and gaps in legal oversight. Drawing on international examples and Albania’s own experience, the brief highlights the need for robust safeguards, legislative alignment with EU standards, and strengthened public awareness to ensure digital means strengthen rather than undermines democratic processes.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Artificial Intelligence, Parliament, and Digital Technologies
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, and Albania

5. A Generation At Risk: Rising youth violence in Albania

Author:: Romario Shehu
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institute for Democracy and Mediation (IDM)
Abstract:: Recent data in Albania indicate a growing trend of youth involvement in violence and criminal behavior, reflecting similar patterns observed across Europe and beyond. In response, state institutions have introduced measures such as the deployment of school safety officers, the “School Safety” package, and plans to install surveillance cameras in schools. However, these efforts remain fragmented and short-term. Addressing youth security in a meaningful way requires primarily a systemic, data-driven approach that examines the forms, root causes and contributing factors of youth-on-youth violence and underreported criminal activity, particularly within and around schools. A comprehensive understanding of these dynamics, combined with stronger institutional coordination, investment in preventive education, and the promotion of youth resilience, is essential to ensuring a safer, more inclusive environment for Albania’s young people.
Topic:: Crime, Education, Youth, Violence, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, and Albania

6. Central and Eastern Europe and the Global Economic Fragmentation

Author:: Jan Boguslawski
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: Since the 2020s, what the International Monetary Fund calls “global economic fragmentation” (GEF) has intensified, marked by weakening trade coordination, the return of protectionism, and the increasing alignment of trade flows with geopolitical blocs. Key drivers include the war in Ukraine, the long tail of the COVID-19 pandemic, escalating China-US tensions, structural transformations such as the rise of digital services and the green transition, and most recently the second Trump administration’s weaponization of tariffs. The countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) are particularly exposed to the GEF. They benefited substantially from past waves of globalization, building growth models centered on foreign direct investment (FDI), integration into global supply chains, and high export dependence, especially toward Western Europe. The CEE countries can be divided into four clusters based on their trade-growth models. Balanced Exporters combine domestic consumption with moderately diversified exports across manufacturing and services. Germany-Affiliated Industrialists form the high-manufacturing, high-FDI hub tightly linked to the German industrial base. Northern ICT Regionalists rely more on dynamic ICT service exports and have stronger ties to Nordic economies than to Germany. Volatile Resource Economies are marked by weaker industrial bases, lower FDI, and a higher share of raw-goods exports. Not members of the EU, they are characterized in part by political instability and fragile institutions. These different models shape how the CEE countries experience the GEF. Their opportunities include the potential to attract reshoring and friendshoring investment or to act as “connector economies” in a bifurcating global trade system. But they also face major risks. The realignment of the global automotive sector, energy-market disruptions, and the broader slowdown in Germany—all magnified by the GEF—pose structural challenges. The key concern is that fragmentation entrenches CEE’s dependence on Western European supply chains, making it harder to diversify trade, to escape the middle-income trap, or to expand into markets beyond Europe. The Germany-Affiliated Industrialists are the most vulnerable, due to their narrow trade portfolios and exposure to fluctuations in global manufacturing demand. The Balanced Exporters, with larger domestic markets and more flexibility, are better positioned to absorb shocks. The Northern ICT Regionalists and the Volatile Resource Economies sit in between, with specific sectoral and geopolitical sensitivities. Albania, Estonia, Hungary, and Poland illustrate these dynamics. In the emerging geo-economic landscape, size and diversification matter. Larger economies with stronger domestic demand and broader export mixes—such as Poland and Romania—have more tools to manage volatility. Sustained stagnation in the EU core could, however, prompt some CEE states—especially export-dependent ones—to seek deeper economic ties beyond Europe, following Hungary’s lead in cultivating links with China. From the EU’s perspective, supporting CEE’s geo-economic autonomy will require more than cohesion funding. It means helping these economies to move up global value chains, to reduce their overdependence on Western Europe, and to expand their exports to new markets. This would not only future-proof the region’s growth but also help defuse political tensions and temper the appetite in CEE for ‘alternative’ geopolitical alignments.
Topic:: Economy, Trade, Regional Economy, and Fragmentation
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Europe

7. Central and Eastern Europe’s Role in Ukraine’s Reconstruction: Shared Opportunities, Benefits, and Challenges

Author:: Dominik Istrate
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: Ukraine’s reconstruction will be a historic undertaking requiring global leadership and the involvement of the largest economies of the international community. While it is being largely addressed through the expected involvement of the private sector globally and formal channels such as the Multi-Donor Coordination Platform for Ukraine or the annual Ukraine Recovery Conference, there have been considerable responses at the level of individual countries from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) as well. In the region particularly, the war has had an economic impact, contributing to an already emerged energy crisis and prompting an economic downturn, due to geographic proximity to Ukraine. Several CEE countries have developed a comprehensive policy approach to Ukraine’s reconstruction. What is more, Czechia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland are at the forefront of reconstruction planning and financial contributions, as well as participating in the early stage of reconstruction, with comprehensive national policies that have total or near-total political support. Others—including Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania, Serbia, and Slovenia—have either expressed a strong interest in participating in postwar reconstruction or have started implementing individual projects, regardless of the level of domestic political support for Ukraine. The majority of CEE countries can claim to have a sustainable engagement with Ukraine. Only in the cases of Hungary and Slovakia, whose relations with Kyiv have reached a historic low, is it yet to be seen if or how they will engage with postwar reconstruction. The actions taken by CEE governments in the past three years strongly suggest not only that the countries of the region are well-positioned to contribute to Ukraine’s reconstruction, but also that some will likely be key players—particularly Poland and Romania, which are positioning themselves as key logistics hubs for this goal. The region’s prospects for playing a key role are also supported by policies introduced in countries such as Czechia, Poland, and the Baltic states that provide various incentives for companies aiming to participate in reconstruction. The subnational and sector-specific approach employed by Czechia and the Baltic states also underscores long-term cooperation and commitment. Other smaller CEE economies are also expressing strong interest. They should formulate a comprehensive approach to support Ukraine and their own business community in one effort. Although the financing of reconstruction remains a key challenge, including regarding the possible use of frozen Russian assets, CEE countries are looking for additional ways and indirect contributions, as well as for policies ensuring that the issue will stay on not only the global but also the regional agenda. Regional cooperation and Ukraine’s EU integration could also prove essential to connect CEE businesses with Ukrainian partners, particularly through the Three Seas Initiative, for which Ukraine’s reconstruction has the potential to become a flagship objective.
Topic:: Reconstruction, European Union, Donors, and Post-Conflict
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and Central Europe

8. How To Help Moldova Secure Its Fragile Democracy

Author:: Laurențiu Pleșca
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: As it approaches its parliamentary elections, Moldova is in a turbulent situation, with ongoing economic and social challenges, society polarized, and the political landscape marked by a split among pro-EU forces while pro-Russia ones appear increasingly united. Moldova is no longer a captured state, but oligarchic networks are still influential. The elections will be decisive for its geopolitical trajectory. Pro-EU actors faces the challenge of overcoming their divisions and forming a credible governing coalition, while pro-Russia and populist forces aim to exploit societal grievances, economic vulnerability, and external disinformation to erode trust in democratic institutions. Vote-buying, illegal campaign financing, and disinformation, particularly via digital platforms beyond the state’s regulatory reach, remain potent tools for those seeking to manipulate the elections’ outcome. At the same time, an active civil society and independent media keep a close watch on democratic backsliding and political shifts. They play an indispensable role in strengthening the country’s resilience, but resource limitations and the termination of US assistance threaten their effectiveness. Moldova’s international environment further complicates its trajectory. The war in Ukraine, the presence of Russian forces in Transnistria, and the frozen negotiation format for solving the situation there heighten security concerns. Russia continues to undermine its EU integration through political pressure, energy leverage, and hybrid influence campaigns. Simultaneously, Moldova has deepened its ties with the EU, the United States, and regional partners such as Romania and Ukraine, receiving substantial financial, technical, and security support. It benefits from the EU’s Black Sea Security Strategy, the European Peace Facility, and a three-year €1.9 billion EU Economic Growth Plan, alongside EU and US military and development assistance. The pro-EU parties are fragmenting and ostracizing each other, while the left-wing and pro-Russia parties are coalescing to be as effective as possible. It will be difficult for a single party or bloc to win an absolute majority. Moldova thus faces three near-term scenarios around the elections, reflecting the political polarization and, in two cases, highlighting the likely fragility of a resulting governing coalition. The most probable outcomes are continuity in government and in EU integration under the PAS or a fragile pro-EU coalition government. The less likely outcome is an unstable broad pro-Russia coalition government that would be destructive for Moldova’s EU path. For the EU, its member states, and other Western actors, supporting Moldova is a matter of reinforcing its democratic resilience. They need to help its institutions withstand pressures in the short term, and to strengthen the political, civic, and security foundations that can anchor the country in Europe in the long run. This requires a wide range of financial, technical, and political measures to give Moldova the tools to resist foreign interference and the confidence to pursue reforms. They include supporting the consolidation of democratic institutions, enhancing electoral integrity, reinforcing civil society, and maintaining a credible path toward EU accession.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, Democracy, Geopolitics, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:: Moldova, Eastern Europe, and Black Sea

9. The Changing Face of the South Caucasus

Author:: Teona Giuashvili
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: The impact of Russia’s war against Ukraine on the South Caucasus has been neither linear nor uniform. The war has ushered in a period of interregnum between the earlier regional order and one whose features are yet to emerge. It has shifted political dynamics within the three states of the South Caucasus and has affected the interests and positions of external actors, altering the regional balance of power. In all three countries in the region, the interregnum has amplified trends that predated the war: it consolidated Azerbaijan’s assertive foreign policy, reinforced Armenia’s striving for emancipation from Russia, and accelerated Georgia’s drift away from the West. While Türkiye took advantage of Russia’s distraction from the region and fostered its position in the South Caucasus, the shift in the status quo in the region has penalised Iran’s regional interests. Throughout the last three years, the South Caucasus has witnessed the receding influence of the US and the EU, and the expansion of China’s geoeconomic footprint.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Treaties and Agreements, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and South Caucasus

10. Poland at a Crossroads? Strategic Choices Amid Shifting Transatlantic Security Dynamics

Author:: Marcin Fatalski and Wojciech Michnik
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: Poland stands at a pivotal moment, navigating domestic political transitions while adapting to profound changes in the transatlantic security landscape. The outcome of key elections (presidential in 2025 and parliamentary in 2027) will shape the country’s strategic direction, as NATO and the EU confront some of the most significant challenges in their history. A second Trump presidency marks a turning point for European security, amplifying EU-sceptical forces and reshaping the regional balance of power. This Strategic Update examines the key domestic and international factors influencing Poland’s political and strategic decision-making, and Poland’s role in the evolving European security architecture – especially in times of the resurgent populist sentiments on both sides of the Atlantic and increasingly aggressive behaviour of the Russian Federation.
Topic:: Security, NATO, European Union, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Poland

11. Encounters with Bulgarian State Security

Author:: Jonathan Rickert
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: Bulgaria today is a parliamentary democracy and EU and NATO member. It maintains friendly, constructive relations with the US. It was not always so, however — as recently as the late 1980s, Bulgaria had a slavishly oligarchic communist regime, was a loyal ally of the Soviet Union, and a Warsaw Pact member.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Memoir, and Soviet Union
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, and Bulgaria

12. Serbia Between Brussels, Beijing, and Moscow: A Foreign Policy of Diversification

Author:: Nina Markovic Khaze
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Australian Institute of International Affairs (AIIA)
Abstract:: As global rivalries intensify, Serbia stands at a complex geopolitical juncture. The country is simultaneously pursuing accession negotiations with the European Union (EU), deepening strategic ties with China, and maintaining longstanding relations with Russia.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, Diversification, Rivalry, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Eastern Europe, and Serbia

13. Global Islamophobia and the Rise of Populism with Audrey Truschke and Ivan Kalmar (Episode 35)

Author:: Audrey Truschke and Ivan Kalmar
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:: Dr. Audrey Truschke and Professor Ivan Kalmar analyze the alarming global surge in Islamophobic violence and discriminatory policies, particularly in Eastern Europe and South Asia. Our guests explore how economic and political insecurities have fueled dangerous scapegoating of Muslim citizens and refugees, transforming vulnerable religious minorities into targets of state-sanctioned persecution. This thought-provoking episode examines the human cost of populist rhetoric and offers critical insights into one of today's most pressing human rights issues: the systematic marginalization of Muslim communities across national borders. Listen to the conversation on the intersection of religious identity, nationalism, and the global struggle for dignity and belonging. The conversation is based on their contributions to the book Global Islamophobia and the Rise of Populism published by Oxford University Press in 2024.
Topic:: Minorities, Refugees, Populism, Discrimination, and Islamophobia
Political Geography:: South Asia and Eastern Europe

14. The Impact of Trump’s Anti-Immigration Discourse on Asylum Applications in the Balkans (2017–2021)

Author:: Vasil Pavlov and Siddharth Kanojia
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: Immigration has become an increasingly contentious political and social issue in Europe over the past decade. The growing influx of asylum seekers has been driven by deteriorating security conditions, armed conflicts, and political and economic instability in various regions, alongside the comparatively higher living standards in Europe. As a global hegemon, the United States has indirectly shaped migration patterns in peripheral regions such as the Balkans. This paper examines how President Donald Trump’s anti-immigration discourse during his first term (2017–2021) coincided with an approximately 45% decrease in asylum applications from the Balkans. Drawing on official statistics and employing Critical Discourse Analysis, the study explores how US rhetoric influenced regional policy emulation. The findings underscore the transnational impact of populist discourse and call for a critical reassessment of migration governance in key transit regions.
Topic:: Migration, Immigration, Populism, Donald Trump, Asylum, and Securitization
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Balkans

15. Protecting Fundamental Freedoms and Promoting Gender Equality: The Case for Binding Quotas on Macedonian Corporate Boards

Author:: Emilija Gjorgjioska, Margarita Janeska, Tatjana Spaseska, and Aneta Risteska Jankuloska
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: This paper analyzes gender balance on the boards of companies listed on the Macedonian Stock Exchange (MSE). Despite formal equality, statistics reveal persistent vertical segregation in top management. A comparative assessment places North Macedonia favorably within the Western Balkans and the European Union; however, further progress is still needed. Adopting a legal gender quota, as outlined in Directive (EU) 2022/238, would help close the gap, fulfill obligations under CEDAW, and reinforce the country’s commitment to the United Nations’ fifth Sustainable Development Goal on gender equality, ensuring that fundamental freedoms, gender balance, and equal remuneration are upheld in practice rather than merely acknowledged.
Topic:: European Union, Sustainable Development Goals, Corporations, Gender Equality, and Macedonian Stock Exchange (MSE)
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, and North Macedonia

16. Moldova’s EU Path: Between Moscow’s Shadow and Brussels’ Promises

Author:: Reinhold Brender
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: In the ongoing confrontation between the European Union and Russia, the Republic of Moldova occupies a critical—though often overlooked—position. While not as militarily pivotal as Ukraine, Moldova’s struggle is no less consequential: it is a contest over national orientation and the future of the European order. Moldova’s plural identity makes it especially vulnerable to Russian interference, complicating its EU accession process and straining internal cohesion. The country’s trajectory mirrors the broader dilemma facing post-Soviet states still defining themselves amid renewed geopolitical rivalry between East and West. Moldova’s future will depend on the decisions of its leaders and electorate, the course of the war in Ukraine, and the EU’s readiness to honour its commitment to membership. The 28 September 2025 parliamentary elections will reveal whether Moldova’s leadership retains a popular mandate to pursue the European path. This policy brief outlines key aspects of the current situation and sets out how the EU can help safeguard the integrity of Moldova’s upcoming elections and support its pro-European trajectory amid heightened geopolitical risk.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Elections, European Union, Foreign Interference, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Russia, Moldova, and Eastern Europe

17. Instruments of Hybrid Warfare: Dissemination of Pro-Russian Propaganda Narratives Through Populist Politicians in the Slovak Republic

Author:: Martin Solik, Dalibor Velký, and Jan Graf
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: This article uses thematic discursive analysis to examine selected pro-Kremlin populist politicians in Slovakia. The enforcement of one-sided propagandist thoughts and opinions, primarily through radical anti-system politicians and 'alternative' media outlets freely available on the internet, has become one of the most important aspects of hybrid warfare in today's world. This paper aims to identify the specific goals of Russian propaganda and clarify how populist politicians spread propaganda on social media through language resources. The results of the analysis are presented at the end of the paper, along with the word resources used by these politicians. The results prove that pro-Kremlin populist politicians use word and language manipulation to help spread unilaterally focused and distorted information in Slovakia. This article aims to build on and complement existing research on pro-Kremlin anti-system politicians and their role in Russia's hybrid warfare in Europe.
Topic:: Politics, Media, Populism, Propaganda, and Hybrid Warfare
Political Geography:: Russia, Eastern Europe, and Slovakia

18. International Diplomacy at the Rambouillet Conference (6 February –18 March 1999)

Author:: Armand Krasniqi
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: The Rambouillet Conference, which took place from 6 February to 18 March 1999, was a pivotal moment in international diplomacy during the Kosovo crisis. Convened by the Contact Group, the conference aimed to negotiate a settlement between the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and the Kosovo Albanian leadership amid escalating violence and mounting humanitarian concerns. The proposed agreement included provisions for substantial autonomy for Kosovo and the deployment of NATO forces to oversee its implementation. It was accepted by the Kosovo Albanian delegation, but rejected by the Yugoslav authorities. Led by Slobodan Milošević, Yugoslavia opposed the presence of foreign troops on its territory, viewing it as a violation of sovereignty. Ultimately, the failure of the negotiations resulted in NATO's military intervention on 24 March 1999, marking a pivotal moment in the Kosovo conflict..
Topic:: NATO, Diplomacy, Sovereignty, Humanitarian Intervention, Negotiation, and Rambouillet Conference
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Yugoslavia

19. Geopolitically mapping Eastern Europe

Author:: Marina Ohanjanyan
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: The relationships on the European continent and beyond have shifted dramatically following Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This policy brief uses Clingendael’s geopolitical mapping methodology to provide an overview of not only the changes that have occurred among the three Eastern European countries considered at the core of this analysis – Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova – but also their relationships with the wider region and global powers, and the consequences of those shifts for regional dynamics. It visualises how February 2022 crystallised these countries’ positions vis-á-vis each other and other regional and global actors and discusses the ramifications of the geopolitical dynamics in Eastern Europe for the EU approach, providing several recommendations.
Topic:: European Union, Geopolitics, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, Eastern Europe, and Belarus

20. Albania’s TikTok U-Turn: Trading Regulation for a Ban

Author:: Daniel Prroni and Megi Reçi
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institute for Democracy and Mediation (IDM)
Abstract:: TikTok is being shut down in Albania, marking a significant shift in the country’s approach to regulating digital platforms. This move diverges from the European Union’s policy direction and contradicts the government’s previous commitment to adopting legal measures in line with EU guidelines. Banning social networks does not address the root issues and limits opportunities to educate users and hold platforms accountable. The European Union has emphasized that regulation is the most effective strategy to mitigate the harmful effects of social media and protect fundamental freedoms. The Digital Services Act (DSA) ensures platforms operate in the public interest, establishes clear content moderation rules, and safeguards freedom of speech, providing a more sustainable solution. Read IDM’s publication, which argues that institutions should stay committed to aligning with the DSA and avoid taking counterproductive actions.
Topic:: European Union, Regulation, Social Media, TikTok, and Digital Services
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, and Albania

21. Deep Down in the Stack: China's Entrenchment in Serbia's Technology Landscape

Author:: Sharinee Jagtiani
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: Serbia, a land-locked nation with a population of under seven million, has emerged as a key player in the PRC’s Digital Silk Road (DSR) initiative within the Western Balkans. Its strategic location, connecting Southeastern Europe to Central and Western Europe, coupled with its role as a regional hub for internet traffic, has positioned Serbia as a valuable springboard for the PRC to market its technologies to the EU. Since 2012, Serbia has been an EU accession candidate and has prioritized digital transformation in its international engagements, notably with the PRC. The country’s commitment to digital advancement is also evident through its participation in the European Commission’s Digital Agenda for the Western Balkans in 2018 and the Digital Europe Program in 2023. Building on previous research conducted at GMF, this report delves into the evolution of the PRC’s DSR in Serbia, employing a technology stack (tech stack) framework to analyze the PRC’s presence. This framework encompasses five layers: network infrastructure, data infrastructure, device, application, and governance. By mapping the involvement of PRC-based entities within each layer, the report offers a detailed overview of the PRC’s technological engagement in Serbia, complete with illustrative examples. The report finds that the PRC and its affiliated entities have emerged as key players in Serbia’s rapid digitalization and modernization of its technology ecosystem. Many PRC technology firms such as Huawei, Nuctech, NetDragon, and BGI (formerly Beijing Genomics Institute)—are present across Serbia’s tech stack. Huawei, in particular, has made notable inroads into Serbia’s foundational network infrastructure. This includes its partnership with Serbia’s largest internet service provider (ISP), the state-owned Telekom Srbija and its positioning as a key partner in the country’s 5G rollout anticipated in 2026. Huawei’s involvement also extends to Serbia’s national and municipal data infrastructure—as a commercial tenant in the national data center and as a financer in Kragujevac’s city data center. These roles, coupled with limited transparency regarding the data stored in state-run facilities, have raised alarm among journalists, activists, and civil society actors about data security and the potential for state-enabled digital surveillance. These concerns have deepened with the introduction of surveillance systems supplied by PRC vendors, particularly under Serbia’s smart and “safe city” initiatives. The PRC’s deepening technological engagement exists in the context of weak implementation of Serbia’s data protection regulation. Serbian political leaders have consistently praised the PRC’s role in supporting their country’s technological ambitions, reflecting a broader strategic partnership that now also includes military cooperation—evident in the procurement of PRC-manufactured military drones and related technology transfers. The PRC’s growing technological footprint also coincides with Serbia’s democratic backsliding, as evidenced by its declining democracy score and its reclassification by Freedom House in 2019 as a “transitional or hybrid regime,” down from a “semi-consolidated democracy”. Collectively, these developments, have created an enabling environment for the emergence of digital surveillance in Serbia.
Topic:: Science and Technology, European Union, Democracy, Digitalization, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:: China, Eastern Europe, Asia, and Serbia

22. Incomplete Exit: Central and Eastern Europe’s Corporate Decoupling From Russia

Author:: Michal Wyrebkowski
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: Following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, companies from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) initially were trailblazers in voluntarily withdrawing from Russia, effectively self-sanctioning through voluntary overcompliance with sanctions by leaving, even though operating in the country is still legal. At the same time, CEE countries have enabled sanctions-evasion networks. The historical economic relationship between CEE countries and Russia created the conditions for this paradox. Decades of relying on Russian energy sources masked an asymmetric interdependence: Russia’s military-industrial complex relied heavily on CEE countries for the machine tools, industrial components, and dual-use technologies essential to weapons production. When EU sanctions targeted these critical supply chains, the geographic proximity and established trade relationships that motivated voluntary exit by some companies also enabled systematic sanctions circumvention by others. The EU’s Russia sanctions since 2014 have struggled to match the complexity of the economic networks involved. Early sanctions focused on financial restrictions and high-profile sectors but failed to address the technical vulnerabilities that enable large-scale evasion. Even as restrictions expanded to cover dual-use goods and Russia’s “shadow fleet”, fundamental gaps in classification systems and enforcement mechanisms persisted. The responses of CEE companies have varied across sectors and countries. While investor and consumer pressure drove rapid voluntary exits from Russia in consumer-facing industries, industrial manufacturers found numerous ways to keep supplying it through third-country intermediaries. The behavior of energy companies has reflected the strategic priorities of CEE governments, with some achieving complete diversification from Russia while others reinforced existing dependencies. The variety of corporate responses mirrored the uneven development of national sanctions-enforcement capabilities, ranging from understaffed sanctions departments to insufficiently robust regulatory frameworks; for example, regarding criminalization of violations. The persistence of sanctions evasion through CEE countries reflects systemic failures in the EU’s enforcement architecture. Technical classification systems designed for traditional trade cannot adequately distinguish between civilian and military applications of modern dual-use technologies. Customs officials lack access to the information systems necessary to verify complex ownership structures and end-use destinations. Legal frameworks optimized for territorial jurisdiction are inadequate for regulating globalized supply chains where goods, payments, and corporate structures span multiple jurisdictions. Banking institutions operating across Central and Eastern Europe have become critical actors, with a small number of financial institutions handling substantial portions of Russia’s foreign currency transactions. Their continued operations highlight the limits of EU territorial sanctions, which is confirmed by the extent to which US extraterritorial enforcement has become necessary to police sanctions violations in Europe. Addressing these challenges requires comprehensive reforms across multiple dimensions. Technical improvements must include supplementary classification systems that incorporate detailed specifications for dual-use goods, while institutional capacity-building demands substantial increases in staffing and expertise at the national and EU levels. Financial-sector monitoring needs real-time automated screening capabilities and dedicated compliance structures, while industrial-sector oversight requires specialized task forces with technical expertise in dual-use technologies.
Topic:: Economics, Trade, Russia-Ukraine War, and Decoupling
Political Geography:: Russia and Eastern Europe

23. How To Help Armenia Navigate Its Democracy-Security Nexus

Author:: Narek Sukiasyan
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: The 2018 Velvet Revolution was a breakthrough for Armenia’s democracy, but progress has since stalled. The June 2026 parliamentary elections will be a decisive test in a polarized environment dominated by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party and an opposition tied to former presidents Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan. This dominant dichotomy, fueled by both sides, frustrates the attempts of alternative forces to come to the fore. Support for Civil Contract is stable, but the majority of voters are undecided, disengaged, or disillusioned by the trauma of the 2020 war in Nagorno-Karabakh and the 2023 ethnic cleansing there as well as by the lack of credible political alternatives. Civil Contract’s political dominance over the last seven years has led to unilateral lawmaking and some controversial actions against opposition figures, media, civil society, and the judiciary. However, recent municipal elections saw the party fail to secure majorities in major cities. While the diplomatic breakthrough in the peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan, marked by the White House deal in August, sets a path for stability in the near term, it is crucial to follow up and to push for a final agreement. Azerbaijan’s continued demands and rhetoric cast doubt as to the extent of its commitment to the process. Similarly, Türkiye still does not meet its commitment to end its blockade of Armenia. Meanwhile, Armenia’s drift away from Russia and pivot to the West has been characterized by its increased ambition to join the EU. It also seeks to diversify its security with the help of its Western partners, advancing with reforms and political alignment with Euro-Atlantic priorities. Until the next elections, Armenia is likely to continue deepening its ties with the West while maintaining cautious cooperation with Russia, while peace talks with Azerbaijan drag on, and relations with Türkiye remain complex. It is likely that Civil Contract will campaign on defending Armenia’s sovereignty and on Western alignment while the fragmented opposition struggles to broaden its support. The most probable scenario is another Civil Contract government with a reduced majority, which will continue efforts toward peace with Azerbaijan and balancing engagement with the West and Russia. Two other scenarios (in descending order of likelihood) are a government coalition of Civil Contract and smaller pro-West parties, which will push a more confrontational stance toward Russia, or an opposition-led government realigning the country with Moscow and further undermining democratization. The EU, its member states, and the United States should support Armenia by helping it strengthen its democratic institutions and its security in order to preserve the public’s confidence in democracy. The country needs a combination of financial, technical, and political assistance to facilitate democratization, to resist external pressures, and to maintain its sovereignty. This includes backing the consolidation of democratic institutions, promoting electoral integrity, encouraging a diversity of democratic actors, and empowering civil society, all against the background of addressing the country’s security challenges. By providing Armenia with the tools to defend its territorial integrity and to pursue democratic reforms, the West can help revive the optimism sparked by the Velvet Revolution and overturn a public disillusionment that could weaken Armenia’s democracy and its ties with Europe.
Topic:: European Union, Democracy, Geopolitics, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: Caucasus, Eastern Europe, Armenia, and United States of America

24. A Subdued “Last Hurrah” for the (Former) Soviet Union in Romania

Author:: Jonathan Rickert
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: Relations between Romania and its large Eastern neighbor–Tsarist Russia, then the USSR, and now the Russian Federation–have been fraught with tension, mistrust, and even enmity. Three examples from the 20th century are illustrative. First, during World War One Romania sent its national “treasure,” consisting of nearly 100 tons of gold plus many other valuables, to Tsarist Russia for safekeeping. When the communist regime came to power there, it effectively confiscated the “treasure,” though some items other than the bullion and gold coins have been returned over the ensuing years. Second, in 1940, the Soviet Union annexed Bessarabia (contemporary Moldova) and Northern Bukovina (now part of Ukraine) from Romania. The desire to recover those territories was one factor leading Romania to join Nazi Germany in its war against the Soviet Union. Third, that losing effort resulted in Romania having an unpopular communist regime forced upon it, having to pay heavy reparations to the USSR, and “hosting” unwelcome Soviet troops until 1958. The oppressive Ceausescu regime was, indirectly, a result of Soviet influence in post-World War Two Romania.
Topic:: Diplomacy, European Union, Soviet Union, Post-Soviet Space, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Russia, Eastern Europe, and Romania

25. Political Humor in Communist Eastern Europe

Author:: Jonathan Rickert
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: Political humor was an important aspect of daily life in communist Eastern Europe – – simultaneously an emotional escape valve and cris de coeur. Anti-regime jokes of various sorts were exchanged cautiously, within families and among trusted friends. Some ridiculed communism itself, others Russia/the Soviet Union, and in many cases the local dictator, whoever he was. Others focused on the shortages, hardships, and other privations of daily life. Examples of such political humor often appeared, disappeared, and then reappeared in altered form. Many such jokes prevalent in communist Eastern Europe hopped from country to country and were recycled versions of each other, adapted to the circumstances and personalities wherever they circulated. Where any particular witticism originated was impossible to ascertain, and where it would end up, and in what form, were equally unknowable. Extensive scholarly interest has been paid to such Eastern European humor, including multiple analyses and compendia. The flavor and content of at least some of those works are contained in the title of one such volume, First Prize: Fifteen Years! by C. Banc and A. Dundes. That title is drawn from the following Romanian joke: A competition for the best political joke was announced. Do you know what the first prize was? No. Fifteen years! The joke cleverly encompasses both the risk and “rewards” of indulging in such activity.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Politics, Memoir, Soviet Union, and Humor
Political Geography:: Europe and Eastern Europe

26. Desecuritizing the Belarusian Balcony: Principles for U.S.–Belarus Relations

Author:: Mark Episkopos
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: This brief outlines a low-cost, low-risk roadmap for sustained U.S. engagement with Belarus that could help to stabilize NATO’s volatile eastern flank, enabling the U.S. to retrench from the European continent and focus on other theaters. In light of governance concerns voiced by Western officials on the heels of the 2020 Belarusian presidential election, and especially since Belarus provided support to Russian troops in the opening weeks of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the E.U. and U.S. have adopted a strictly punitive approach to Belarus. Essentially, Belarus has been viewed as an appendage of Russia. However, this approach misses opportunities for the West to take advantage of inherent divisions between the interests of Belarus and Russia. As outlined in previous Quincy Institute research, President Aleksandr Lukashenko of Belarus has long wished to develop a “multi-vector” foreign policy for his country. Such a policy would permit Belarus to maneuver between the East and West to best safeguard its own national sovereignty and interests. While Belarus has moved significantly closer to Russia in recent years, this pivot has in part been in reaction to Western hostility. Lukashenko likely remains open to some degree of cooperation with the West, and has signaled that he does not wish to increase participation in the Russia–Ukraine War. While it is almost certainly impossible to fully remove Belarus from the Russian camp, exploring ways for Belarus to triangulate between Russia and the West could offer significant benefits for U.S. interests and for regional stability. This brief recommends that the Trump administration explore the following bargain with Belarus: In exchange for a Belarusian commitment not to abet, facilitate, or engage in aggression against any NATO state, the U.S. should promise that it will not engage in any effort at an external change of government in Belarus. To firm up the U.S.–Belarus relationship, the U.S. should consider sectoral sanctions relief, including in the Belarusian civilian aviation sector, and U.S. engagement in other non-military investment opportunities, such as the Belarusian electric vehicle industry. The U.S. should also work to restore Belarus’ access to international financial institutions. The U.S. should mediate border issues between Belarus, Poland, and Lithuania toward the goal of deescalation on NATO’s eastern flank. The U.S. should encourage Belarusian efforts both to facilitate Russia–Ukraine peace talks, such as exchanges of prisoners of war and bodies of fallen soldiers, and to contribute to Ukraine’s postwar reconstruction.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, Bilateral Relations, and Elections
Political Geography:: Russia, Eastern Europe, North America, Belarus, and United States of America

27. Getting Off the Back Foot: Guiding Principles for a Proactive Western Strategy on Belarus

Author:: Artyom Shraibman
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: For decades, the West has been unable to build an effective strategy on Belarus due to the country’s limited geopolitical importance, an inexorably deeper dependence on Moscow, and the glaring absence of leverage over Minsk’s strategic decisionmaking. This paper proposes a different paradigm for approaching the issue. Instead of passively reacting to Minsk’s actions, the West should broaden its planning horizon and create more specific incentives for Belarus to follow a different trajectory in the future. The overriding goal of a more proactive Western strategy should be the eventual emergence of a democratic Belarus that is no longer fully dominated by Moscow in the military and political realms. Such an ambitious goal would have tangible and lasting benefits for the new European security landscape amid the prospect of a long war in Ukraine. Skepticism in Western policy circles about the viability of such a scenario is entirely understandable. Yet it is not entirely clear whether Western policymakers have registered the significant differences between Russia and Belarus at the societal level and divergent strategic interests of the Russian and Belarusian regimes. At the same time, it is essential for Western policymakers to keep their expectations in check and to avoid an overestimation of their capabilities. The Belarusian crisis cannot be resolved in the foreseeable future by Western efforts alone. Moreover, there should be no illusions about the fact that Belarus, much like Ukraine, holds a special place in the worldview of the Russian ruling elite and President Vladimir Putin personally. The Kremlin’s long-standing obsession with keeping the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) away from Russia’s borders plays into the same attachment to keeping the Belarusian regime in as tight an embrace as possible. Therefore, until Moscow either changes its foreign policy priorities under a new leadership or simply becomes unable to keep Minsk under its control, it would be naïve to expect that the Russian leadership will simply offer any Belarusian government greater leeway to shift its geopolitical orientation. At the same time, it is conceivable that a qualitative increase in military assistance to Ukraine and a more effective economic pressure campaign against Russia could disrupt Belarus’s trajectory and make Minsk more amenable to the incentives that the West can already offer. But an overnight breakthrough seems highly unlikely. This paper, therefore, focuses on more realistic recommendations with longer-term effects.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Geopolitics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Eastern Europe, and Belarus

28. What is Serbia’s “Project 5000” and why Should we be concerned?

Author:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: This paper examines the potential consequences and concerns surrounding Serbia’s “Project 5000,” emphasizing why it warrants attention not just from neighboring states in the Western Balkans but also from NATO. Given the geopolitical landscape, any escalation of conflict within this region directly impacts NATO’s strategic interests, considering its significant presence in the Balkans. Moreover, Russia’s overt military backing of Serbia and its advocacy for a militaristic approach towards Kosovo are of particular concern. This stance by Russia can be interpreted as an attempt to embolden Serbia to adopt a military intervention in Kosovo, serving dual purposes for Russia: shifting international focus from the brutal invasion of Ukraine and undermining NATO’s credibility and influence in the region. The unfolding situation underscores a broader strategy by Russia to exploit regional tensions, thereby challenging the Euro-Atlantic integration process. Such maneuvers not only threaten to destabilize the Western Balkans but also aim to fracture European unity and weaken NATO’s strategic coherence, particularly as it pertains to its eastern flank and broader engagement in conflict resolution and peacekeeping efforts.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Geopolitics, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Serbia

29. The Concept of "Putinism" and its Impact on the "Normalization" of Georgian-Russian Relations

Author:: Malkhaz Mikeladze
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:: In view of the ongoing aggression in Ukraine, the Russian elite is formulating conceptual approaches to justify the inevitability of the escalating confrontation with the West and to encompass the foreign priorities of the Russian Federation. Within expert circles, this combination of approaches is increasingly labeled as “Putinism,” with the belief that its main components will have a decisive impact on Russia’s relations with other countries, including Georgia. Amidst the ongoing polarization of Georgian society, the normalization of relations with Russia emerges as one of the most important issues, a normalization process that has triggered radicalization and sharp confrontation between the government and opposition, further complicating the depolarization process and civil dialogue recommended by the European Union. These challenges themselves seem to be obstacles to European and Euro-Atlantic integration. Therefore, the article aims to review the basic principles of “Putinism” and provide a pragmatic evaluation for the “normalization” of Georgian-Russian relations.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Normalization, Vladimir Putin, and Polarization
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, Caucasus, Eastern Europe, and Georgia

30. Overview of the Russia-Ukraine War: Strategies and Expectations of the Conflict Parties

Author:: Mamuka Zhvania
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:: Non-objective and confusing viewpoints on the ongoing war in Ukraine often reverberate within the information sphere, and consequently in society, contributing to the dissemination of disinformation. Common suggestions include the notion that the West is weary of supporting Ukraine, Russia’s defeat is not advantageous for them, and that the West is endeavouring to compel Ukraine towards negotiations. The given article aims to elucidate the ongoing developments in the war and present a persuasive response to pertinent questions regarding the dynamics of hostilities and the strategies employed by the parties involved. The following is an analysis of the current stage of the Russia-Ukraine war, including its potential duration, the resources available to each party for conducting warfare, reasons for the delayed assistance from the West, and projections for the future.
Topic:: Disinformation, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

31. Where Georgia's U-Turn Comes from and Where it is Heading

Author:: Kakha Gogolashvili
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:: For 30 years, Georgian governments have pursued European integration, reflecting the will of the majority. They have implemented European standards and reforms, culminating in 2022 with the ‘European Perspective’ and EU candidate status in 2023. Then, unexpectedly, the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party began to ignore EU recommendations, prioritizing state sovereignty and independent decision-making. This stance, reminiscent of Putin’s “sovereign democracy,” led to controversial actions like resisting judicial reforms and improving the election code. Instead of aligning with the EU, the government began strengthening its economic ties with Russia, even after the invasion of Ukraine. The most notable action was adopting the Law on Transparency of Foreign Influence, mirroring Russia’s 2012 law aimed at controlling civil society and the media. This provoked protests, divided society, and alarmed international partners, increasing Georgia’s isolation from the democratic world and its vulnerability to authoritarian powers, especially Russia. Thus, the key questions are: Why has GD chosen this risky path? With most Georgians supporting European integration, how should the EU and the international community respond to GD’s policies steering the country away from Europe?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Elections, European Union, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:: Ukraine, Caucasus, Eastern Europe, and Georgia

32. Tit for tat: A turn in the Russian-Ukrainian war

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: Ukrainian forces are expanding their incursion into Russia's Kursk Oblast, a surprise not seen since World War II. The Russian response has been traditional and disorganised. If Russia fails to repel the advance, Ukraine could regain control over the conflict and set new negotiation terms.
Topic:: Security, Armed Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, and Incursion
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

33. Toward Innovation-driven Growth: Innovation Systems and Policies in EU Member States of Central Eastern Europe

Author:: Alexandra Bykova, Viktrória Döme, Richard Grieveson, Francesca Guadagno, and Doris Hanzl-Weiss
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:: This study builds on our previous analyses of a new growth model for the EU member states of Central and Eastern European (CEE), focusing on fostering innovation-driven development. We aim to explain the types of innovation systems and policies that enhance domestic innovation capabilities, drawing on global best practices. A critical evaluation of the current innovation landscape in EU-CEE countries is conducted, particularly in the context of the green and digital transitions. The study assesses the strengths and weaknesses of both national innovation initiatives and opportunities provided by EU industrial and technology policy frameworks. Based on these insights, we offer actionable policy recommendations to promote innovation-driven growth, enhance productivity, and boost economic convergence over the medium term, taking into account the unique political and historical contexts of the EU-CEE countries. Additionally, we prepare country-specific briefing notes tailored to the individual development needs and opportunities of each nation.
Topic:: Development, International Trade and Finance, Science and Technology, Economic Growth, Innovation, Economic Competition, and Convergence
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Europe

34. Right-Sizing the Russian Threat to Europe

Author:: George Beebe, Mark Episkopos, and Anatol Lieven
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: Western leaders, including U.S. President Joe Biden, have frequently framed the invasion of Ukraine as the first step in a Russian plan of broader European conquest. However, a close examination of Russian intent and military capabilities shows this view is dangerously mistaken. Russia likely has neither the capability nor the intent to launch a war of aggression against NATO members — but the ongoing brinkmanship between Russia and the West still poses serious risks of military escalation that can only be defused by supplementing military deterrence with a diplomatic effort to address tensions. An analysis of Russian security thinking demonstrates that Putin’s stated views align with long-standing Russian fears about Western encroachment, given Russia’s lack of natural barriers to invasion. As Putin has come to view NATO as increasingly hostile to Russia, aggressive Russian action in defense of its claimed “sphere of influence” has become a factor in European security. However, contrary to many Western analyses, this does not mean that Russia views future wars of aggression against NATO member states as in its security interest. This does not imply naivete about the danger of Russian aggression, as reflected most recently in its illegal invasion of Ukraine. But it highlights the fundamental differences between Russia’s perceptions of Ukraine, which it has long regarded as both critical to its national security and integral to its history and culture, and its views of NATO countries, where the cost-benefit balance of aggression for Russia would be very different. Understanding Russian incentives also requires assessing Russia’s actual military capabilities compared to NATO. As frequently reiterated by NATO leadership, such an assessment shows that Russia is at a decisive conventional military disadvantage against the NATO alliance. While Russia would do damage in a conventional war with NATO, it would almost certainly suffer a devastating defeat in such a conflict absent nuclear escalation. NATO has a greater than three-to-one advantage over Russia in active-duty ground forces. NATO also has even greater advantages in the air and at sea. The alliance has a ten-to-one lead in military aircraft and a large qualitative edge as well, raising the probability of total air superiority. At sea, NATO would likely have the capacity to impose a naval blockade on Russian shipping, whose costs would dwarf current economic sanctions. While Russia has clear military superiority over individual NATO states, especially in the Baltics, it is extremely unlikely it could exercise this advantage without triggering a broader war with the entire NATO alliance. However, NATO’s powerful military deterrent alone cannot create stability in Europe. Paradoxically, an excessive reliance on military deterrence is likely to increase instability by inducing Russia to rely increasingly on its nuclear force as its primary basis for deterrence. Unlike conventional forces, Russia and NATO possess roughly the same amount of nuclear weapons. Washington must work to defuse this increasingly unstable dynamic by restoring diplomatic lines of communication between Russia and the West.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, NATO, National Security, Bilateral Relations, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and United States of America

35. Rethinking the U.S.–Belarus Relationship

Author:: Mark Episkopos
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: Belarus is commonly seen as a Russian outpost on NATO’s eastern flank, with its president, Aleksandr Lukashenko, cast as a categorical opponent of Western interests. This narrative became ascendant in the West after Russia’s full–scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. However, a fuller examination of Belarusian foreign policy under President Lukashenko reveals a more nuanced picture of a country that, despite its historic ties to Russia, has consistently demonstrated a willingness to engage with the West. Lukashenko has sought to pursue what he calls a “multi–vector foreign policy,” straddling the great powers to best safeguard Belarus’s national sovereignty and its interests. This multi–pronged approach has shifted decidedly in recent years, however, with Lukashenko drifting into the Russian camp, as evidenced by Minsk providing logistical support and safe passage to Russian troops in its war on Ukraine, and allowing Russian tactical nuclear weapons on Belarussian soil. But these policies did not occur in a vacuum. They were, rather, a direct result of American efforts to isolate Belarus through a maximum pressure campaign which began in the aftermath of the 2020 re–election of Lukashenko. Western policies aimed at isolating Minsk have had the counterproductive effect of pushing Lukashenko closer to Moscow and Beijing, in an effort to counteract what he sees as a Western program of driving regime change in Belarus. Western governments, particularly Washington, should recognize that maximum pressure will backfire by pushing Belarus closer to Moscow. An alternative strategy based on resetting relations with Belarus and enabling the return of Lukashenko’s multi–vector foreign policy holds the promise of preventing the further integration of Belarus and Russia and possibly even reversing some of Putin’s moves to pull Belarus into the Russian orbit. To execute this strategy, the United States should: Explicitly disavow regime change and the training of anti–Lukashenko dissidents as U.S. policy goals in direct talks with Belarussian officials, conditioned on Belarussian assurance that it will not use its territory as a staging ground for attacks on NATO Establish a piecemeal approach for sanctions relief with Belarus as progress is made toward resetting relations Pursue bilateral cooperation with Belarus, including the resumption of energy trade, American investment, and other cultural arrangements. Pursuing the soft reset prescribed in this paper will not be easy, but the alternatives would leave the United States in a weaker strategic position by needlessly heightening Minsk’s dependence on its Russian neighbor. Steps toward reaching a new understanding with Belarus can instead bolster eastern European stability and enhance NATO’s eastern deterrent posture.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, National Security, Bilateral Relations, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Eastern Europe, Belarus, and United States of America

36. Ukraine, Gaza, and the International Order

Author:: Faisal Devji
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: The ongoing crises in Ukraine and Gaza show the urgent need for a new internationalism that comes to grips with the increasing independence of middle and smaller powers around the world. Such a vision must reject the effort to re-impose a failed framework of unilateral U.S. primacy, or an effort to shoehorn multiplying regionally specific conflicts into an obsolete model of “great power competition” that recalls the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union. In both Ukraine and the Middle East, the United States has been unable to impose its will either militarily or diplomatically. Smaller nations have successfully defied American–backed military force. Even more concerning, a significant share of the global community has failed to follow the U.S. diplomatic lead and support the U.S. interpretation of international norms. But opposition to the United States has not been supported by a superpower peer competitor to the United States, along the lines of a Cold War model. The current emerging world order is instead characterized by “regionalization,” a situation where middle and even small powers around the world feel free to circumvent or even defy U.S. interpretations of global norms based on more local interests and regional security concerns. The stage was set for the current situation by the U.S. attempt to assert unilateral power during the War on Terror in ways that appeared to give the United States alone a de facto exemption from global norms and institutions. These actions reduced the legitimacy of the post–World War Two international order that the United States had helped to create, and led many in the international community to seek alternatives to a system that seemed to grant the United States almost arbitrary power to define the rules. The U.S. foreign policy establishment must come to grips with the newly deglobalized and regionalized world order. A failure to do so poses a grave threat to U.S. power and influence, as relationships with key emerging powers such as India, or even traditional U.S. allies in Europe and Asia are not immune from the kind of de–globalizing and regionalizing forces seen in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Topic:: Cold War, International Law, National Security, Hegemony, Grand Strategy, Armed Conflict, International Order, Russia-Ukraine War, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, Israel, Eastern Europe, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America

37. "Inventing Eastern Europe" Thirty Years Later: A Conversation with Larry Wolff and Guests

Author:: Malgorzata Mazurek, Larry Wolff, Suzanne Marchand, Emile Greble, and Jan Kubik
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: The Harriman Institute
Abstract:: When Larry Wolff’s book Inventing Eastern Europe was published in 1994, it gave the world a new set of tools for understanding the half of Europe that had recently emerged from behind the Iron Curtain. Most notably, Wolff’s book showed how the conceptual division of the European continent into two distinct civilizations, East and West, although reinforced by the Realpolitik of the Cold War, actually originated in the discourse of philosophes and travelers in the 18th century. Inventing Eastern Europe was revelatory in the mid-1990s, and it has been required reading for serious students of Eastern European history and culture ever since. Please join the East Central European Center and the Harriman Institute for a conversation with Larry Wolff, Suzanne Marchand, Emily Greble and Jan Kubik, moderated by Malgorzata Mazurek, about the genesis, initial impact and continued relevance of this seminal work on the thirtieth anniversary of its publication.
Topic:: Cold War, History, and Philosophy
Political Geography:: Europe and Eastern Europe

38. How Has the Ukraine War Changed the China-Russia Relationship?

Author:: Yun Sun, Segey Radchenko, Andrew Nathan, and Alexander Cooley
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: The Harriman Institute
Abstract:: Just prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping proclaimed a “no-limits” partnership between their countries. But Russia’s war in Ukraine has had a profound impact on the Sino-Russian relationship. While Putin has sought Beijing’s support for his territorial grab, China’s position, has been famously characterized as “pro-Russia neutrality”. Geopolitics remains the single most important factor in China’s decision regarding the Ukraine war, as Beijing has been torn between the competing agendas of managing its relations with Russia and relations with Europe. And while the Russians have grown increasingly frustrated with what many in Moscow perceive as Beijing’s double-dealing and unwillingness to commit, Putin’s leverage with Xi Jinping remains limited. As the war in Ukraine grinds into its third year, China and Russia continue unsteadily towards an ever closer alignment even while pragmatically looking out for their own interests in an evolving world.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, Strategic Interests, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

39. Empowering Communities in Kosovo: The Vital Role of Local Government in Advancing Education and Curbing Deviant Behavior

Author:: Islam Hasani and Ferdi Kamberi
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: Local communities play an essential role in developing and organizing their lives for joint betterment. Local self-government, through local democratic mechanisms, involves the community as part of the public policies, showing the sign of the development of the local democracy. This research aims to analyze the communication and collaboration between the local government and local communities in Kosovo, focusing on their role in the development of education and the reduction of deviant behavior, intending to create a better social environment for the community. The research methodology employed for this paper is as follows: library research, qualitative research, and the analysis of the laws in power related to the topic. There will be field research working with two focus groups belonging to the municipality of Prishtina, considering their ethnic component. General results show that communities are still in the development and organization phase, whereas their participation in the process of public policies is still under the average level. Social audits can be mechanisms for development, organizing the community, and involvement in local government policies.
Topic:: Development, Education, Democracy, Public Policy, Behavior, Empowerment, Communities, and Local Self-Government
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, and Kosovo

40. Beyond Traditional Boundaries: From State-Centric Diplomacy to More Participatory Approaches for a Sustainable Future in the Western Balkans

Author:: Elira Luli and Mirela Metushaj
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: The contemporary era has witnessed a significant evolution in diplomacy, transitioning from traditional state-led approaches to more open, multilateral methods and channels. This study evaluates the effectiveness and suitability of the new diplomatic disciplines, particularly in the Western Balkans region, which grapples with numerous structural challenges, ethnic and political divisions, and external interference. The influence of traditional state-centric diplomacy in this region necessitates a shift towards a more participatory, multi-stakeholder approach to promoting positive peace and cooperation. This reframing of diplomacy emphasizes the emergence of regionalism and multilateralism through multi-track diplomacy, involving private individuals, non-governmental organizations, societies, and engaged citizens to foster understanding through dialogue, cooperation, and deeper interaction. The analysis highlights the influence of innovative diplomatic channels interlinked and entrenched through a capillary diplomacy framework essential for regional application while exploring the constraints of traditional methods. It advocates for fresh diplomatic strategies and collaborative initiatives in the Western Balkans through a win-win formula and a participatory model based on multi-track diplomacy – repurposed and redesigned to advance the reconciliation process, rapprochement, and raise public awareness through effective communication in line with the EU integration goals and advancements.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Balkans

41. The “Revival” of PiS: The Transformation of Campaign Strategies from the Kaczynski Twins to Andrzej Duda

Author:: Melissa Stolfi
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: The paper analyzes the campaign strategies of the PiS political party during the Polish elections from 2009 to 2020. It examines how the gradual modernization of communication strategies and the adoption of a less aggressive narrative contributed to the party’s revival after a decline in support caused by the political crisis of 2007 and the death of leader Lech Kaczynski in 2010. The research aims to identify the changes in campaigning that contributed to regaining electoral success since the 2015 national elections. The analysis is based on audio-visual materials produced by PiS for the elections during both the “crisis” period (2009-2013) and the “revival” period (2014-2020), allowing for a comparative analysis of the main changes between these two periods. Through content analysis of these materials, the study investigates the topics, genres, formats, national and European dimensions, personalization strategies, and use of negative advertising.
Topic:: Communications, Elections, Domestic Politics, Propaganda, Political Parties, and Advertising
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, and Poland

42. Assessing Success Through Party Label Durability: A Comparative Study of the Democratic Party of Albania and the Homeland Union of Lithuania

Author:: Ilir Kalemaj and Sokol Lleshi
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: This study provided a theoretical framework explaining center-right opposition parties’ evolution in former Eastern Europe. It answered why post-communist center-right parties lacked consistent success and either became marginalized, altered their ideologies, or ceased to exist in the long run. By taking the Democratic Party of Albania as one of the exceptions to the rule and comparing it to the Homeland Union-Lithuanian Christian Democrats, we showed the discrepancy with much of the other center-right parties. We followed a most different systems design, where the dominant center-right party of Albania and the dominant one in Lithuania were compared. Although much different in history, political culture, and institutions, they had similar successful trajectories as dominant center-right parties. We argued that the success of these parties depends upon the durability of party labels as a critical determinant of a party’s success historically, which takes priority over party strategy, mobilization power, social base, and the behavior of the center-right party toward political institutions. Overall, we emphasized party labels as cues of party identification and success.
Topic:: Domestic Politics, Political Parties, and Post-Soviet Space
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Lithuania, and Albania

43. The Changing Conceptual Landscape of the Russian War in Ukraine (2014-Present) and Syria (2011-Present)

Author:: Piotr Pietrzak
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: The main goal of this paper is to present and compare the main developments in the Russian wars in Ukraine and Syria by considering the main patterns, parallels, and changing trajectories that could shed more light onto both of these war zones, which are highly interlinked due to Russia’s leading role in both. It analytically, comparatively, and contemplatively approaches those developments by highlighting multiple similarities and the main differences in global responses to these conflicts. Both conflicts should be seen as highly unpredictable, dynamic, and unnecessarily extended asymmetric proxy wars in which global powers test their new military doctrines and their competitors' responses to their unconventional actions and other unsolicited and indirect interferences in the local dynamism of both wars. Unlike in Syria, the Ukrainian war zone is wholly transformative and ready for the adoption of partial hybridization and the utilization of the new software-defined warfare in combination with conventional weapons.
Topic:: International Relations, Conflict, Syrian War, Russia-Ukraine War, and Warfare
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, Middle East, Eastern Europe, and Syria

44. Two years of war in Ukraine: Will the West need another shock to act decisively?

Author:: Arkady Moshes
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: The West is failing to provide Ukraine with sufficient resources to resist Russia’s invasion, and lacks a vision for the future of West-Russia relations. This may push Ukraine to the brink of defeat as early as 2024. Western capitals should realize the risks and stop procrastinating.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

45. The Washington Summit: NATO and the Baltic Region

Author:: Toms Rostoks
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: NATO heads of state and government will gather in Washington on 9-11 July to mark the Alliance’s 75th anniversary. While a third year of full-scale war rages in Europe, they will need to guard the tone of their celebrations. But it would be remiss of the Allies not to recognise the importance and success of their organisation. NATO remains the essential transatlantic forum. It has had huge positive impact on security in Europe and elsewhere, built shared understanding and purpose among a growing number of members, and successfully adapted to decades of changing circumstances. There is much to applaud. But there is also work to be done. The summit’s main business will concern Ukraine, defence and deterrence, and burden-sharing. While there are unlikely to be big announcements, the summit should play a significant role in ensuring that the decisions taken in Madrid in 2022, and Vilnius in 2023 are properly implemented. This series of briefs examines some of the key issues for the Washington Summit. In the second brief of the series, Toms Rostoks focuses on NATO’s role in defence and deterrence in the Baltic region. There has been good progress through the steps taken by the Baltic states and by their Allies, but substantial shortcomings remain in the Alliance’s posture on the north-east flank. The Baltic region thus remains a vulnerability for NATO.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, Alliance, Deterrence, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Baltic Sea, and Baltic States

46. Rethinking Industrial Policy for Central and Eastern Europe

Author:: Michal Hrubý
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) is increasingly important in the EU’s manufacturing landscape. The region’s export-oriented economies became an integral part of it through foreign direct investment—supported primarily by EU funding, including Cohesion Policy programs for regional and industrial development, and by national state spending. With its competitiveness at stake, the EU now focuses on industrial policy for cutting-edge technologies with high capital intensity. Many of its new regulations loosen state aid rules to allow generous support by governments to attract investors, which poses a problem for member states with less fiscal room to do so, including the CEE countries. This report discusses the opportunities and challenges for CEE countries to build manufacturing with potential to grow and to increase domestic value-added. It examines two case studies in the region: batteries and semiconductors, and their position in the value chains in Czechia and Hungary. Hungary has become one of the EU’s leading battery industry hubs and plays a key role in the drive toward self- sufficiency in this field. Its success came principally through government spending on investment promotion. Key issues have arisen regarding the environmental sustainability of new investments, the decision to attract cheap foreign labor without any appropriate long-term labor policy, and the lack of knowledge spillover from multinational companies to small and medium domestic ones to improve their value-chain position. New large investments announced by Chinese companies also raise geopolitical and security issues. With its broad innovation and R&D strategy and record low unemployment, Czechia did not make attracting large investments a priority before the COVID-19 pandemic. This has changed and its semiconductor industry is well- placed to draw in new investments in the micro- and nanoelectronics value chain. Czechia has started to support the industry through state aid for a handful of domestic and foreign companies, due to its strategic importance, its high value-added in production output, and the opportunity for stimulating R&D and high-skill employment. These case studies reveal key takeaways for Central and Eastern Europe. First, industrial policy based on state aid in small open economies are costly and will not generate long-term benefits if it is oriented solely at production tasks as in the past. Investment must bring innovation and R&D. Second, CEE countries should make financing innovation and R&D the priority, not subsidizing new manufacturing projects. They should rationalize their policy objectives and update and stick to their national strategies. Third, tight budgets and financial consolidation put pressure on selecting projects for state aid. Governments should not provide this aid without a solid cost-benefit analysis of the investments. Fourth, the CEE countries should consolidate the too broad innovation priorities within their national strategies and analyze their long-term growth potential. Fifth, industrial policy must be accompanied by appropriate labor and education policies to support the green and digital transition.
Topic:: Economics, Industrial Policy, Science and Technology, Innovation, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Europe

47. 178th mBank-CASE Seminar Proceedings: Immigration and the Labour Market in Poland

Author:: Jan Bazyli Klakla and Maciej Duszczyk
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: Over the last dozen years Poland became an immigration country. The 178th mBank-CASE Seminar proceedings is devoted to this process – from various perspectives. The data speak for themselves. Immigration provides significant support for the Polish labour market. Poland is facing a rapid population decline. According to projections by the Ministry of Finance in 2022, by 2030 the population of Poland could decrease from the current 37.75 million to 36.6 million, and by 2050 to 34.1 million. The percentage of people of working age will decrease, while the elderly population will increase. Immigration may provide a solution to this problem. In 2022, around 100,000 people from Belarus arrived in Poland, most of them actively participating in the labour market. In addition, there are 1.2 million Ukrainians who stayed in Poland after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It is therefore necessary to develop a long-term immigration, education and social policy to retain immigrants and integrate them into society and the labour market. This is what eminent experts who have been researching migration processes for years write about in the first two chapters of these Notebooks: Dr Maciej Duszczyk, as well as Dr Agata Górny and Dr Paweł Kaczmarczyk, from the Centre for Migration Research, operating within the University of Warsaw. The third chapter is devoted to the situation of female domestic workers.
Topic:: Immigration, Labor Market, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, and Poland

48. WEER 2023 | Ukraine at War: Why did it happen, when will it end? (Full Issue)

Author:: Henryk Litwin, Yevgeniya Gaber, Mykola Riabchuk, Ola Hnatiuk, and Aliaksei Kazharski
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
Institution:: Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
Abstract:: From June 28th to June 30th, 2023, the nineteenth Warsaw East European Conference “Ukraine at War” took place. It was attended by a diverse group of scholars from Belarus, Canada, Great Britain, Germany, Lithuania, Poland, the United Kingdom, Ukraine, the United States, Finland, and Estonia. The conference opened with an inaugural lecture titled “Why a Ukrainian Victory Matters?” delivered by Professor Marius Janukonis, Director of the Strategic Management and Analysis Department at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania. The closing presentation, titled “Russia’s War on Ukraine: Where Are We Now and What Next?”, was prepared by Professor Yevgeniya Gaber from Ukraine, representing the Atlantic Council in Turkey. The highlight of the conference was three round table discussions. On the first day, Professor David Sacko moderated a discussion on “Ukraine at War. Security in the Region.” On the second day, there was an exchange of views on “Rebuilding Ukraine. Key Challenges for the War and Post-War Period,” led by Dr. Ernest Wyciszkiewicz. Finally, on the closing day of WEEC, Professor Mykola Riabchuk chaired a round table titled “The Toxic Spell of ‘Imperial Knowledge’ and Challenges of Decolonization.” Throughout the event, there were 13 panel discussions during which 41 papers were presented. The titles of the panels reflect the breadth of thematic discussions during the conference, listed in the order they occurred: 1. Around Ukraine. Post-Soviet Space Before and During the War 2. Challenges and Diagnoses of the Future 3. Consequences of the War 4. Public Diplomacy 5. Russia towards the War 6. Ukraine – Sources of Resistance 7. Ukraine and Security Problems in the Continental Dimension 8. Ukraine in the Eyes of Russia. Ukraine in the Eyes of Europe 9. War Migrants 10. Belarusian Memory Policy. Report on “European Network for Belarus” project 11. Migration from Post-Soviet countries in Poland: trends, challenges, and prospects 12. War Narratives in the Media. Unfortunately, only a portion of the conference participants submitted their article texts to the organizers based on their presentations. Therefore, only partial materials from WEEC 2023 are published here. Readers will find the concluding lecture by Prof. Yevgeniya Gaber and a report on the round table discussions “The Toxic Spell of ‘Imperial Knowledge’ and Challenges of Decolonization,” comprising texts from the participants, containing the main theses of their presentations. Additionally, 10 articles from panel participants are included. While this compilation may not provide a comprehensive account of the conference, it serves as evidence of its thematic diversity and provides a glimpse into this significant event for Eastern European studies.
Topic:: History, Geopolitics, Colonialism, Ideology, Decolonization, Totalitarianism, Vladimir Putin, Armed Conflict, Identity, Soviet Union, Public Diplomacy, Forced Migration, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, and Eastern Europe

49. Northern Kosovo: Asserting Sovereignty amid Divided Loyalties

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Tensions are rising in Kosovo’s restive Serb-majority north, as Pristina enforces its writ against the backdrop of continuing disputes with Belgrade. The parties and outside supporters should first work on defusing the short-term risk of violence and then look for ways to foster lasting stability.
Topic:: Sovereignty, Political stability, Domestic Politics, and Violence
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, and Kosovo

50. Ukraine: How to Hold the Line

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The gruelling war in Ukraine continues, with Russian forces creeping forward amid fierce fighting. To stop Russia’s immediate momentum and withstand its assault, Kyiv and its backers will need to move quickly to fix problems that have hindered the Ukrainian effort to date.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Armed Conflict, Military Aid, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

51. A Fraught Path Forward for Ukraine’s Liberated Territories

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Even as Ukraine continues to resist Russia’s onslaught, it faces the challenge of reintegrating lands its army freed from Russian occupation in 2022. With aid from donors, there is much Kyiv can do to help make these areas peaceful and productive once more.
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid, Occupation, Donors, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

52. Aircraft vulnerability to politically motivated Radio Frequency Interference (RFI) in Eastern Europe

Author:: Tegg Westbrook
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: Countries in Europe have experienced radio frequency interference from Russian electronic warfare units, affecting navigation systems without discrimination. Interference has been identified as coming from the Russian mainland, Kaliningrad, and in the areas where it is engaged in conflicts abroad, creating serious hazards for aircraft. Previous research has identified the technical vulnerabilities to aviation from radio frequency interference, but it has yet to be contextualised in light of the ongoing geopolitical tensions. Using literature review analysis, the aim of the article is to place the jamming and spoofing threat in the context of ongoing political tensions between Russia and the region and to establish worse-case scenarios based on the former’s motives. Focusing on the threats to aircraft, it finds that the likely motivations are to (1) complement political narratives of Western aggression; (2) to deny service for intimidation, harassment, economic loss, and to portray a dominant Russian cyber influence; and (3) to use spoofing to enable hostage diplomacy via the seizure of people and assets. It argues that reporting mechanisms for aviation risks assumes geographical staticism, which does not correspond adequately to the threat. It also creates arbitrary “predictability” in otherwise unpredictable environments, which could ultimately affect vigilance and due diligence in the areas not considered problematic.
Topic:: International Security, Cybersecurity, Geopolitics, and Satellite
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe

53. Estimating the vulnerability of industrial network infrastructure in Central and Eastern Europe

Author:: Mateusz Gzegorz Twardawa, Marek Smolik, Franciszek Rakowski, Jakub Kwiatkowski, and Norbert Meyer
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: Industrial infrastructure has suffered an unprecedented number of attacks in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). This situation can be attributed to many geopolitical factors, including hybrid military conflicts and criminal activity. Industrial networks belonging to the countries that were once under Soviet influence suffer from an elevated risk of cyberattacks. The goal of this work is to propose an easy way to estimate the vulnerabilities of industrial networks to cyber threats on a national level. Since analysis of the industrial vulnerability landscape is difficult, this study proposes an assessment based on the popularity of vulnerable technologies—VPc. This metric is composed of search volume data on keywords related to industrial network technologies and reported security vulnerabilities associated with these words. Data on 116 keywords was analysed and a country-specific VPc index was calculated for twenty states in CEE. The analysis of the popularity of industrial technologies and vendors in CEE reveals interesting information about the industrial security and vulnerability landscape. The results show that some countries (e.g. Estonia) have more resilient industrial infrastructure than others (e.g. Belarus). The results presented in this study are not in conflict with other data and estimation attempts, including the National Cyber Security Index (NCSI). As new vulnerabilities are noted every day, the industrial security landscape changes rapidly. Therefore, a new easy-to-use metric (VPc) can be successfully used for general estimations. This work shows that the VPc score agrees with other estimates and analyses, but as with any other general estimation tool, it must be used with caution.
Topic:: International Security, Infrastructure, Cybersecurity, Industry, Vulnerability, and Network Security
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Europe

54. Scramble for Green Technologies: Strategies of Major Players and Serbia’s Opportunities

Author:: Mikhail Korostikov
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:: The struggle between the EU, the US and China for dominance in new technological niche markets has the potential to become the most important story of the next two to three decades, potentially overshadowing any ongoing military conflicts in the world. It is taking place on several fronts at once: artificial intelligence, new principles of industrial production (such as the use of robots or additive technologies), space exploration, and much more. This report explores the political and economic confrontation between the three sides regarding the green technology industry and draws certain conclusions regarding the implications of this confrontation for Serbia. The role of Serbia’s reserves of lithium and other minerals important for the latest high-tech industries could affect the country’s standing in the world in general, and its importance to the EU in particular. However, it is critical to ensure that Serbia maximises the opportunities associated with the exploitation of lithium and concentrates the maximum number of links in the value chain associated with the extraction, processing and utilisation of the valuable resource. It is equally important that the lithium mining process be carried out in accordance with the best environmental standards and, first and foremost, with the support of the environmental authorities of the European Union, potentially being the final beneficiaries of the project.
Topic:: Markets, European Union, Green Technology, Mining, Lithium, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: China, Eastern Europe, Serbia, and United States of America

55. Being European (free, modern and independent): a view from Central and Eastern Europe

Author:: Nathalie de Kaniv
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: The philosophy and culture of the Enlightenment shaped the mental map of Europe, drawing a distinction between civilization and barbarism. The latter is now rising again, and contemporary geopolitics, turned upside down by the Russian war and the scale of aggression in the Middle East, is bringing the clash of civilizations back into focus. The war against the West, the anti-Western narrative, the confrontation between the free world and authoritarian regimes nostalgic for distant empires, the desire to create grey zones, barriers to the spread of values that are uncomfortable, even threatening, for hostile centralized systems, are challenging Europe. Authoritarianism, the aspiration to infinite power, corruption rooted in state governance, the use of repression against all opposition, the manipulation of international law and interference go hand in hand with militaristic slogans that promote the erasure of certain states from the world map, and illustrate the mutation of systems towards new forms of power. Clinging to undivided power, the designation of a common enemy fosters the attraction of war and murder. So, what is this West that some say they are fighting or want to do away with? What choices have those who fervently resist this threat made? What does it mean to be European, which has become a "raison d'être" in countries threatened by the Kremlin? Now is the time to take a closer look at the contribution of these states resisting the threat to our perception of what it means to be European. What does it mean to be European in Central and Eastern Europe[1], which has remained European despite the Iron Curtain? Far from seeking an exhaustive answer to this complex question, our aim is to examine some of the notions that permeate the European idea in Central and Eastern Europe.
Topic:: European Union, Democracy, Geopolitics, and Citizenship
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Europe

56. Serbia’s Newly-Signed Extradition Agreement with China: U-turn on Human Rights? – Ana Krstinovska

Author:: Ana Krstinovska
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: In May 2024, during President Xi Jinping’s visit to Serbia, President Aleksandar Vučić signed 28 agreements with China, including a controversial extradition treaty. This treaty raises concerns about potential human rights violations, particularly for Chinese dissidents, as it follows the European Court of Human Rights’ precedent in Liu vs. Poland, which cited risks of ill-treatment in the Chinese prison system. The agreement highlights Serbia’s strategic alignment with China, emphasizing mutual legal cooperation and Chinese investments, despite past human rights scandals involving Chinese companies in Serbia. This development challenges Serbia’s commitments to the European Convention on Human Rights and complicates its EU accession prospects. In May 2024, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Serbia, France, and Hungary to advance Chinese interests in Europe. Serbia, under President Aleksandar Vučić, signed 28 agreements with China, including a contentious extradition treaty. This extradition agreement potentially undermines human rights protections in Serbia, echoing concerns raised by the European Court of Human Rights in the Liu vs. Poland case regarding risks of ill-treatment in Chinese prisons. The treaty may facilitate the extradition of Chinese dissidents and political refugees, aligning with Beijing’s efforts to control overseas Chinese populations through legal and police cooperation. Serbia has strengthened its partnership with China, evidenced by joint police patrols and surveillance initiatives, and has become a significant hub for the Chinese diaspora in the Balkans. Past human rights issues in Serbia, involving Chinese companies’ labor practices, highlight a pattern of overlooking abuses to maintain strong bilateral relations. China’s support for Serbia on key international issues, such as the status of Kosovo, underpins this strategic alliance. Serbia’s deepening ties with China pose a challenge to its EU accession aspirations, requiring a balance between its obligations under the European Convention on Human Rights and its commitment to China’s vision of state-centric human rights.
Topic:: Human Rights, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, and Extradition
Political Geography:: China, Eastern Europe, and Serbia

57. Global Islamophobia and the Rise of Populism with Ivan Kalmar & Audrey Truschke

Author:: Ivan Kalmar and Audrey Truschke
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:: Islamophobia has seen a disturbing rise across Asia and Europe. Professors Audrey Truschke and Ivan Kalmar focus on India and Eastern Europe, respectively, in examining the global trend of blaming Muslim minorities for economic, political, and social problems, which in turn causes anti-Muslim violence.
Topic:: Minorities, Discrimination, Islamophobia, and Violence
Political Geography:: Europe, India, Eastern Europe, and Asia

58. The idea of smart city in the perspective of the development of the capitals of the Visegrad Group countries

Author:: Marek Gorka
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: The objective of this study is to analyze the implementation and utilization of information and communication technologies (ICT) in the development of Smart Cities by the authorities of the V4 capitals. This research examines the smart city concept in the context of the development strategies of the V4 capitals. The study utilizes quantitative and qualitative methods to assess the potential of each city and conducts a comparative analysis of strategic documents related to the smart city concept. The article initiates by examining the changing dynamics of public space management in light of the increasing significance of cybertechnology. The subsequent section highlights the key points outlined in the Agenda 2030 document. This is followed by an effort to conceptualize the smart city concept and an explanation for investigating the development of the V4 capitals. The subsequent portion of the article delves into the perception of economic and social development, drawing from the security and cybersecurity strategies of each V4 country. The cases of each country are then analyzed based on selected factors that define their technological potential. The analysis aims to identify the predominant aspects pertaining to the utilization of ICT within the Smart City concept in the V4 capitals. The comparative analysis will reveal commonalities, disparities, strengths, and areas that require further development in each capital. The insights derived from this research prove vital for effective urban management. They facilitate an enhanced understanding of the interconnectedness between various economic and social resources and allow for the systematization of assumptions, visions, and underlying concepts related to urban space management. This, in turn, assists in identifying the factors that influence comprehensive engagement in smart city initiatives.
Topic:: Development, Science and Technology, Communications, Innovation, Smart Cities, and Visegrad Group
Political Geography:: Europe and Eastern Europe

59. The Future of Liberal World Order from a Central and Eastern European Perspective

Author:: Peter Rada and Laura Nyilas
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: It is now generally accepted that the global order is shifting, but the literature is divided on how. Consequently, it is not surprising that there is a lack of strong scholarship on the characteristics of the order from a Central and Eastern European (CEE) perspective. Therefore, this article aims to explore the future of the Liberal World Order (LWO) from this perspective through the lens of mainstream theories. The article looks at the geopolitical dynamics of the region and the evolving strategic perceptions of the LWO. It examines how CEE, traditionally seen as the frontier of the LWO (EU and NATO), is navigating the complexities of the current global political landscape in the light of the changing order. The second part of the article specifically analyses the security perceptions of CEE governments. The article seeks to contribute to the understanding of the future trajectory of the LWO, the potential implications for global peace and security, and the interplay of realism and liberalism in shaping our understanding of this trajectory from the CEE perspective.
Topic:: International Relations, Geopolitics, Liberalism, and International Order
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Europe

60. The Future of Elections in Ukraine

Author:: Razumkov Centre
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: National Security and Defence
Institution:: Razumkov Centre
Abstract:: The project «The Future of Elections in Ukraine: The Factor of War» was carried out by the Razumkov Centre with the support of the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung in Ukraine in May- September 2024, during the third year of Ukraine’s full-scale war against the russian aggressor. The project included an analytical report, a nationwide sociological and expert survey, an offline roundtable involving experts in the fields of law and political science, and original articles by renowned experts in electoral law. This publication contains an abridged version of the analytical report and the main findings of the expert and sociological surveys in descriptive form. All project materials (in Ukrainian) are available in a special issue of the National Security and Defence journal (№1-2, 2024). '
Topic:: National Security, Law, Elections, Domestic Politics, Political Science, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

61. Power moves east: Poland’s rise as a strategic European player

Author:: Izabela Surwillo and Veronika Slakaityte
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Since Russia’s war in Ukraine, Europe’s geopolitical centre has shifted eastward. Poland’s economic growth, regional leadership and defence role have cemented its position as a major force in the continent’s power structure.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Geopolitics, Leadership, Economic Growth, Regional Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and Poland

62. Balka-Seltzer: How to avoid excess gas in the Western Balkans

Author:: Engjellushe Morina
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: As prospective EU members, the countries of the Western Balkans need to integrate with the bloc’s internal markets and align with its climate and energy security goals. But the region remains largely dependent on coal for its electricity generation. Its energy markets are not fully integrated with the EU’s, and its energy systems still receive significant fossil fuel subsidies. Despite this, there is huge potential for a transition to renewable energy in the Western Balkans; Albania has long generated almost all its electricity via hydropower. The region could also integrate with EU energy markets thanks to its interconnected grids and infrastructure, with mutually beneficial effects. Yet, rather than focus on decentralisation and the transition to cheaper renewables, the region seems to be sticking with subsidised coal and drifting towards greater use of gas. Russia has a foothold in the Western Balkans’ nascent gas sector. China also has energy-related interests in the region. This all hinders the Western Balkans’ alignment with the EU and integration with its markets. It is in the EU’s and the Western Balkans’ interest to skip gas and instead jump straight to renewables, despite the block’s planned gas projects in the region.
Topic:: European Union, Gas, Renewable Energy, Energy, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Western Balkans

63. The jockey, horse and racetrack revisited: Why did CESEE’s command economies collapse?

Author:: Richard Grieveson, Mario Holzner, and Branimir Jovanovic
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:: Why did the socialist system that dominated Eastern European countries for much of the 20th century collapse around 1990? Drawing on the newly released wiiw COMECON Dataset and reports that the wiiw was publishing at that time, we explore whether the collapse was due to unfixable systemic flaws of the socialist economies, an unfavourable global environment since the mid-1970s, or policy mistakes made by socialist leaders. Our analysis concludes that all three factors contributed to the collapse. Although the international context – with rising oil prices and interest rates – and the limited openness and competitiveness of socialist economies presented significant challenges, these economies might have survived without the sharp rise in borrowing during the 1970s, the Soviet Union’s squandering of the oil windfall between 1973 and 1985, the failure of Gorbachev’s reforms in the late 1980s, and exchange rate mismanagement in Hungary, Poland, Romania and Yugoslavia. A particularly grave policy mistake was the Soviet Union’s 1975 decision to replace the fixed five-year oil pricing system with one based on annual adjustments using a five-year moving average tied to world market prices, which exposed the COMECON countries to the full force of the 1970s energy crisis, thereby triggering – or at least catalysing – the system’s collapse. Finally, we also find that extreme weather events played a significant role by causing crop failures, which led to a loss of hard currency export revenues and subsequent current account issues.
Topic:: Climate Change, Communism, History, Economy, Socialism, Soviet Union, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe and Eastern Europe

64. Toward Innovation-driven Growth: Innovation Systems and Policies in EU Member States of Central Eastern Europe

Author:: Alexandra Bykova, Viktrória Döme, Richard Grieveson, Francesca Guadagno, and Doris Hanzl-Weiss
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:: This study builds on our previous analyses of a new growth model for the EU member states of Central and Eastern European (CEE), focusing on fostering innovation-driven development. We aim to explain the types of innovation systems and policies that enhance domestic innovation capabilities, drawing on global best practices. A critical evaluation of the current innovation landscape in EU-CEE countries is conducted, particularly in the context of the green and digital transitions. The study assesses the strengths and weaknesses of both national innovation initiatives and opportunities provided by EU industrial and technology policy frameworks. Based on these insights, we offer actionable policy recommendations to promote innovation-driven growth, enhance productivity, and boost economic convergence over the medium term, taking into account the unique political and historical contexts of the EU-CEE countries. Additionally, we prepare country-specific briefing notes tailored to the individual development needs and opportunities of each nation.
Topic:: Development, Science and Technology, European Union, Innovation, and Convergence
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Europe

65. Eastern Europe before Transition: Exploring historical trade data on external economic relations in CESEE’s command economies

Author:: Doris Hanzl-Weiss
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:: This paper revisits the external economic relations in the former command economies of Central, East and Southeast Europe (CESEE) by exploring historical trade data. It provides a descriptive analysis of foreign trade statistics, drawing on the newly introduced wiiw COMECON Dataset, which contains economic time series of the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA or COMECON) countries from 1945 to 1994. While trade with the West was limited, the majority of trade took place among the CMEA members states, with the Soviet Union (USSR) serving as the most important partner. The USSR supplied energy and raw materials to its partners in exchange for manufactured products and other goods. However, when examining historical data from CESEE’s command economies, it is important to consider the limitations of data and distinctive features of this economic system.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, History, and Command Economies
Political Geography:: Europe and Eastern Europe

66. Labour developments, living standards and well-being in Eastern Europe before the transition

Author:: Vasily Astrov and Branimir Jovanovic
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:: This article examines trends in population, labour, prices, incomes and consumption across eight Eastern European countries – Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, East Germany, Hungary, Poland, Romania, the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia – between 1950 and 1990. It finds that, despite persistent shortages, economic and social conditions generally improved until the late 1970s. Incomes and consumption rose steadily, and access to education and health care expanded, often at rates comparable to or even surpassing those in some Western European economies. However, the 1980s brought mounting economic challenges, as the state increasingly lost labour to the informal sector, wages and incomes stagnated, inflation surged in several countries, and consumption growth began to slow significantly.
Topic:: History, Labor Issues, Population, Socialism, Price, Consumption, Well-Being, and Income
Political Geography:: Europe and Eastern Europe

67. Women's Security in Local Communities

Author:: Lajla Leko and Sabahudin Harčević
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Centre for Security Studies
Abstract:: With the project "Improvement of Women's Safety and Security in Local Communities - AwareBiH", CSS aims to point out the state of security from the point of view of women, therefore it is necessary that some of the biggest cities, namely Mostar, Sarajevo and Banja Luka, are bearers of positive changes in the implementation of the project's results. In addition, the project aims to show the ability of women in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) to influence changes that would make their environment safer. This topic is not discussed in BiH as much as it should be, while the security sector is still perceived as a sector dominated by men. Therefore, this project will help society and decisionmakers to better understand the needs and feelings of women in BiH about their own security.
Topic:: Security, Law Enforcement, Women, Violence, and Survey
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, Balkans, and Bosnia and Herzegovina

68. Anti-corruption Capacities of Public Procurement in the Security Sector: Report for 2020 and 2021 - Part I

Author:: Erdin Halimić, Dajana Bašić, and Aleksandar Maletić
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Centre for Security Studies
Abstract:: Investigations into corruption in the security sector are often focused on contracting, that is, on the stages of public procurement in which civil servants prepare and sign contracts with suppliers of equipment and services and manage their implementation. However, in order to discover the functioning mechanisms of public procurement and potential critical points for the emergence of corruption, we must investigate the entire public procurement procedure and then prepare appropriate conclusions and recommendations for its suppression. In our case, this implies an indepth analysis of relevant normative acts, practices and challenges in public procurement in the security sector. The report was made on the basis of qualitative and quantitative parameters based on which the anti-corruption capacities of 13 security sector institutions from different levels of government in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) were measured and evaluated. The time period covered by the research refers to two years, 2020 and 2021.
Topic:: Security, Corruption, Government, Law Enforcement, Institutions, and Public Procurement
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, Balkans, and Bosnia and Herzegovina

69. Anti-corruption Capacities of Public Procurement in the Security Sector: Report for 2020 and 2021 - Part II

Author:: Erdin Halimić, Ajla Popović, Haris Vejezović, Aleksandar Maletić, and Dajana Bašić
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Centre for Security Studies
Abstract:: Investigations into corruption in the security sector are often focused on contracting, that is, on the stages of public procurement in which civil servants prepare and sign contracts with suppliers of equipment and services and manage their implementation. However, in order to discover the functioning mechanisms of public procurement and potential critical points for the emergence of corruption, we must investigate the entire public procurement procedure and then prepare appropriate conclusions and recommendations for its suppression. In our case, this implies an indepth analysis of relevant normative acts, practices and challenges in public procurement in the security sector. The report was made on the basis of qualitative and quantitative parameters based on which the anti-corruption capacities of 12 security sector institutions from different levels of government in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) were measured and evaluated. The time period covered by the research refers to two years, 2020 and 2021.
Topic:: Security, Corruption, Government, Law Enforcement, Institutions, and Public Procurement
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, Balkans, and Bosnia and Herzegovina

70. A Year of War: A Reporter's View of Russia's Invasion of Ukraine (3/23/23)

Author:: Joshua Yaffa and Keith Gessen
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: The Harriman Institute
Abstract:: Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine last year, Joshua Yaffa, who spent a decade living and reporting in Russia, has traveled across Ukraine—where he also has deep experience as a journalist—witnessing the war up close and publishing regularly in The New Yorker. He will share his impressions from his numerous reporting trips, which began in the early, fraught days in Kyiv, when the capital was the primary target of the Russian military; to Kharkiv, a historically Russian-speaking city that has faced relentless rocket and artillery fire; from the decimated towns of the Donbas to Zaporizhzhia, a regional capital in the south that became a waystation for Ukrainians fleeing the horrors of Mariupol and elsewhere. Yaffa will describe how the conflict looks and feels on the ground, whether for civilians trapped under bombardment or newly enlisted soldiers. He will also discuss a number of key questions at the start of the war's second year. What has been the role and effect of Western military aid? What sort of end to the fighting is possible? And how will both Russia and Ukraine be forever changed as a result?
Topic:: Conflict, Journalism, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

71. Jewish Female Mental Health Professionals between Poland, the Nazis, and America (3/29/23)

Author:: Klara Naszkowska and Christopher Caes
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: The Harriman Institute
Abstract:: The forced migration of the Jewish people from Europe to the United States in 1933-1941 is one of the most significant phenomena in twentieth–century intellectual history. However, close to nothing has been written on over eighty Jewish women mental-health professionals (mostly psychoanalysts) who fled Nazi persecution to the US, where they became “essential workers” in mental-health care when America joined World War II. Their professional contributions notwithstanding, they are now neglected, understudied, and at risk of being forgotten. The presentation introduces the diaspora of Polish Jewish mental-health professionals: psychoanalysts, social workers, child welfare workers, social psychologists, and body psychotherapists. It will discuss their personal and professional biographies, including family and religious backgrounds, education and career patterns, experiences of exile and (non)belonging, their relationships with the past, and the construction of national, spiritual and cultural identities, with a special attention to Jewish identity. The presentation is based on an ongoing research project located at the intersection of Jewish gender and women’s studies, personal and oral history, and immigration. The primary source of information on the women under investigation is archival personal accounts: unpublished memoirs, correspondence, interviews, diaries, remnants, memories, and post–memories, along with original interviews with family members, friends, and colleagues.
Topic:: History, Holocaust, Forced Migration, Jewish community, and Nazi Germany
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Poland, North America, and United States of America

72. A Conversation with Azovstal Defender Illia Samoilenko (2/24/23)

Author:: Illia Samoilenko and Elise Giuliano
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: The Harriman Institute
Abstract:: 28 year-old Ukrainian Lieutenant Illia Samoilenko was the deputy commander of the National Guards of Azov. Days before the Azovstal surrender in May, Lieutenant Samoilenko held a news conference broadcast live from a bunker beneath the steelworks. At this press conference, he described for two hours the desperate conditions that wounded soldiers faced. He also said that he and all the others saw themselves as “dead men.” Samoilenko was held in solitary confinement as a prisoner of war by the Russian Federation for 120 days before he was released in a prisoner swap last month.
Topic:: Armed Forces, Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, and Azovstal
Political Geography:: Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and Mariupol

73. Propaganda Addiction: How Russians Learned to Trust the Kremlin's Falsehoods

Author:: Anton Shirikov
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: The Harriman Institute
Abstract:: When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the world was shocked to learn how often Russians fell for the Kremlin’s pro-war propaganda pushed through loyal state media. Some citizens even trusted television reports more than they believed their own family members in Ukraine. In his talk, Dr. Shirikov will explain how authoritarian media can gain and cultivate such public trust, presenting evidence from surveys and experiments he conducted in Russia in recent years. He will discuss whether Russians are–as scholars often think–sophisticated and discerning news consumers, why they find propaganda messages credible, and why so few of them seek alternative information sources. This research offers insights into how Vladimir Putin’s regime manages public opinion and maintains acceptance of the war.
Topic:: Public Opinion, Authoritarianism, Media, Propaganda, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

74. THE IMPACT OF PUNISHMENT, BUDGET SPENDING, AND SOCIAL STIGMATIZATION ON FISCAL EVASION: THE CASE OF KOSOVO

Author:: Mentor Gashi and Ramadan Beqiri
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: The purpose of this paper was to identify several factors that have an impact on tax evasion. Tax evasion is considered a problem for many different countries in the world, simultaneously attracting the curiosity of researchers. The study employed a convenience sampling technique and collected 221 questionnaires in Kosovo. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistical analysis, linear regression and are reflected in the matrix table of correlation coefficients. In this research, the statistical significance results appear the size of punishment, perception of spending of budget, and social stigma that has effected tax evasion. In this way, as lower the punishment for evaders effected non-encourage citizens to notify the tax evasion. Perception of non-spent properly of budget effected non-encourage citizens to notify the tax evasion. Also, when the lower was a social stigma for the evaders, it increased their willingness to tax evasion.
Topic:: Law Enforcement, Budget, Tax Systems, and Tax Evasion
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Kosovo

75. POLICY OF RAISING THE CAPACITY OF LOCAL SELF-GOVERNMENTS FOR MANAGEMENT OF EMERGENCIES

Author:: Samed Karovic, Jasmina Brankovic, Sinisa Domazet, and Jelena Jesic
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: Local self-governments (LSGs) cannot effectively manage emergencies. To overcome this problem, it is necessary to find action policies that would facilitate the increase of capacities of LSGs in such situations. The starting point for defining the policy was collecting data on the current abilities and capacities of LSGs in AP Vojvodina. The research covered 40% of the total number of LSGs and more than 64% of the population in the AP of Vojvodina. A combined open-ended survey questionnaire was constructed for data collection. The data was collected in field conditions through online procedures, direct sending of written surveys, and direct discussion of project implementation leaders. The statistical analysis of data identified that the legal aspect of LSGs and emergencies was not harmonized with other institutional documents at the level of LSGs. Most LSGs had serious difficulties in managing emergencies, especially civil protection. The platform is envisaged to facilitate raising the prevention capacity of LSGs by integrating all relevant information to provide early warnings and indications for implementing corresponding organizational, technical, and economic measures to deal with emergencies.
Topic:: Security, Law, Business, Knowledge Management, and Emergencies
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Serbia

76. EFFECT OF CORRUPTION ON FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT INFLOWS IN COUNTRIES OF THE WESTERN BALKANS

Author:: Artan Hajdini, Lum Collaku, and Safet Merovci
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of corruption on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the Western Balkans countries, including Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Albania. Secondary data from The World Bank, Transparency International, and International Monetary Fund databases were utilized to complete this study for 2012-2020. The built model of multiple linear regression included four independent variables, namely: Corruption Perception Index (CPI), Western Balkan Corruption Ranking (WBCR), Exchange Rate (EXG), and Inflation Rate (INFL), as well as FDI as a dependent variable, and data effects were analyzed through the SPPS scientific research software program. The results found that if CPI and WBCR were to increase by one unit, FDI would decrease by 0.088, namely 0.624, while if EXG and INFL were to increase by one unit, FDI would increase by 0.165, namely 0.236. In order to fight corruption and potentially attract more foreign direct investment, the governments of these countries should work to harmonize their anti-corruption laws with those of the European Union. In order to prevent the negative consequences of FDI inflows, they should also maintain a balanced rate of inflation, which entails stabilizing exchange rate fluctuations.
Topic:: Corruption, Foreign Direct Investment, Exchange Rate Policy, and Inflation
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Balkans

77. PUBLIC EXPENDITURE ON EDUCATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM NORTH MACEDONIA

Author:: Katerina Shapkova Kocevska
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: In this paper, we studied the impact of public education expenditure on GDP per capita in North Macedonia from 1991 to 2020. The main questions we examined were: 1) What is the relationship between public education expenditure and GDP per capita in the country in the short run?; 2) Does a long-term relationship between the aforementioned variables exist?; and 3) What are the policy implications? This research was based on the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, originally developed by Pesaran et al. (2001). The empirical estimations produced interesting findings. In the short run, the relationship between public spending on education and GDP per capita in North Macedonia was negative and statistically significant. The long-term relationship between the variables remained negative but statistically insignificant. These results were robust and consistent with results from earlier empirical studies. The results suggested that government expenditures on education did not contribute to economic growth in North Macedonia in the analyzed period, ceteris paribus. From a public policy standpoint, we concluded that intervention in the education system's financing is necessary to facilitate the transformation of education expenditures into productive human capital and enhance the nation's economic development.
Topic:: Development, Education, Economic Growth, Human Capital, and Public Spending
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and North Macedonia

78. BANK PROFITABILITY DETERMINANTS: EVIDENCE FROM KOSOVO AND ALBANIA

Author:: Vese Qehaja-Keka, Skender Ahmeti, and Muhamet Aliu
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: This research aims to examine the factors that impact the profitability of commercial banks in Kosovo and Albania. Profitability is crucial in the financial sector as it directly affects policymakers, regulators, and bank management. The study focuses on several determinants of bank profitability, including the number of employees, loan interest rate, non-performing loans, and total loans. The study employed quarterly secondary data spanning from 2010 to 2020, resulting in 400 observations. The analysis used multiple linear regression, influenced by the huge number of observations and the applicability of ordinary least squares (OLS) for such studies. This method allowed for a thorough examination of the interactions between the dependent and independent variables, providing a more in-depth understanding of the factors driving bank profitability. The statistical significance was determined using software such as STATA and SPSS. The dependent variables in the analysis are return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE). The findings reveal that the loan interest rate, total loans, and non-performing loans significantly influence the profitability of the analyzed banks in Albania and Kosovo. Furthermore, the total number of loans and employees are statistically significant determinants of ROE. These findings provide valuable insights for bank management and policymakers in enhancing bank profitability and stability.
Topic:: Economics, Management, Banking, and Loans
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Albania

79. EVALUATION OF THE PRINCIPLE OF TAX FAIRNESS IN THE TAX ON INCOME OF NATURAL PERSONS IN THE REPUBLIC OF NORTH MACEDONIA

Author:: Sejdefa Dzafche
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: The paper analyzed the development stages in the taxation of the income of natural persons in the Republic of North Macedonia through the prism of their compliance with the theoretical approaches in regulating the matter of income taxation. For this purpose, the initial stage of this research was the review of the impact of frequent amendments to the regulatory framework (relevant legislation) on the realization of the principles of vertical and horizontal justice. In the analysis of the normative-legal framework, the primary focus was the regulation’s influence on the realization of the principle of justice in taxation in the legal system of the Republic of North Macedonia (RNM). Additionally, the teleological method was used to identify the level of realization of the goals and functions of the RNM tax system. In that context, the effects of income taxation on the redistributive function were analyzed. The basic hypothesis from which the paper starts is that the frequent changes and modifications in income taxation concepts resulted in violating social-political principles in taxation. The research results indicate an inconsistency in the development of the system of income taxation of natural persons in RNM, which leads to a violation of the vertical and horizontal justice and the redistributive function of the income tax.
Topic:: Reform, Tax Systems, and Redistributive Function
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and North Macedonia

80. LEVERAGING EMPLOYEE ENGAGEMENT FOR COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE: SATISFACTION AND WORK MOTIVATION MANAGEMENT

Author:: Faruk Ahmeti
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: Companies must continually adapt to technological advancements to gain a competitive edge and enhance performance. Active employee engagement plays a crucial role in achieving and improving performance, necessitating promoting motivation and job satisfaction. This study explores the relationship between motivation, job satisfaction, and employee performance, with employee engagement as a mediator. Specifically, the research focuses on Information Technology (IT) companies in Kosovo and various locations across the European Union involved in different projects. The sample for this study comprises 112 respondents selected through convenient sampling. The research model is analyzed using Partial Least Square (PLS) analysis with SmartPLS 3.0 software. The empirical findings indicate that motivation positively influences employees’ engagement and performance in various IT positions. However, job satisfaction has no direct impact or exerts a relatively low influence. Nonetheless, employee engagement significantly enhances employee performance by mediating the effects of motivation and job satisfaction. The research findings have significant managerial implications, emphasizing the importance of actively promoting motivation, innovation, and job satisfaction to increase employee involvement and achieve desired outcomes.
Topic:: Science and Technology, European Union, Employment, Business, and Performance Evaluation
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Kosovo

81. UKRAINIAN MIGRATION DURING THE FIRST YEAR AFTER THE BEGINNING OF THE RUSSIAN ARMED CONFLICT IN 2022

Author:: Rossen Kostadinov Koroutchev
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: This study examines the evolution of Ukrainian refugees during the first year after the start of the full-scale armed conflict on 24 February 2022, which resulted in a severe humanitarian crisis and high levels of migration both within Ukraine and towards Europe. Using official statistics, the changes in border crossings from Ukraine to neighboring countries during the first year of the conflict are investigated. Additionally, surveys conducted with Ukrainian refugees in several European countries and author interviews conducted in Bulgaria, Spain, and Germany reveal the specific needs of refugees and the main challenges to successful integration into host labor markets and societies. The Temporary Protection Directives and other local protection programs are analyzed in this study, accompanied by a comprehensive discussion on similar initiatives. The primary conclusion drawn from this research affirms the presence of substantial challenges in the successful integration of Ukrainian refugees into host societies, despite the efforts made by the respective governments.
Topic:: Migration, Refugees, Borders, and Integration
Political Geography:: Ukraine and Eastern Europe

82. UNPACKING GENDER DYNAMICS IN ALBANIAN JOURNALISM: A POST-COMMUNIST PERSPECTIVE

Author:: Jonila Godole
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: This study provides evidence of the challenges faced by women journalists in Albania after the fall of communism based on a nationwide survey of 295 journalists. Despite an increase in the number of women journalists, their emancipation in journalism is not necessarily implied. Women journalists tend to be confined to reporting on “soft news” sections or cultural and social topics, reinforcing traditional gender roles. Many women journalists conform to societal expectations and adopt gender stereotypes to exert influence while facing obstacles such as a male-dominated hierarchy, self-censorship, and pressures from family and editorial supervisors. Female journalists who make a name for themselves often cover male-dominated topics, following a masculine logic to gain respect and struggling to maintain their femininity. The study sheds light on the challenges and complexities women journalists face in Albania, providing insights into the gender dynamics within the media industry.
Topic:: Women, Journalism, Censorship, Gender, and Soft News
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Albania

83. THE ROLE OF SOCIAL MEDIA IN THE PROCESS OF INFORMING THE PUBLIC ABOUT DISASTER RISKS

Author:: Vladimir M. Cvetkovic, Aleksandra Nikolic, and Aleksandar Ivanov
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: Social media informs the public about the most important events and conveys important information. Before, during, and after disasters, social media are used to disseminate information about disasters and collect data relevant to the implementation of preparedness, response, and recovery activities and measures. Social networks are effective in disseminating information and warnings, as well as in educating the public. The subject of the research is examining the influence of demographic factors on the effectiveness of social media in informing the public about the risks of disasters. Using an online survey questionnaire and according to the snowball principle, a survey of 247 respondents was conducted in 2022. The research results show no statistically significant relationship between the respondents’ education level and the assessment of the effectiveness of social media reporting on disasters. Using social media can improve communication between stakeholders in disaster management and facilitate coordination of efforts, fostering communication and allocation of resources. To effectively use social media in disaster management, decision-makers in the disaster management system must be aware of new technologies, their disadvantages and advantages, and ways to collect and analyze data from social networks.
Topic:: Social Media, Risk, Disaster Management, Public Service, and Information
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Serbia

84. THE IMPACT OF THE RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN CONFLICT ON ARMENIA'S FOREIGN TRADE: A QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS

Author:: Diana Galoyan and Diana Matevosyan
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: This article aimed to provide a quantitative assessment of the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on Armenia’s foreign trade. The research problem was to analyze how the conflict influenced Armenia’s export and import patterns regarding geographical directions and product structure. The objectives were to examine the changes in trade turnover and identify shifts in geographical trade directions and trade structure. The study employed various statistical analysis tools, including dynamic series indicators, structural analysis, time series modeling, trend and moving average approximation, and extrapolation. Through these methods, the study evaluated the effects of the conflict on Armenia’s foreign trade. The key results indicated a positive impact of the conflict on trade turnover, with increased trade activity in various geographical directions. Export diversification was also observed as a result of the conflict. Notably, re-export played a significant role in the unprecedented growth of Armenia’s trade turnover during this period. In conclusion, the findings suggest that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict had a discernible influence on Armenia’s foreign trade, leading to changes in trade patterns and increased trade activity. The study highlights the importance of the re-exports role in analyzing trade dynamics.
Topic:: Economy, Exports, Trade, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Armenia

85. LOCAL SELF-GOVERNMENT, COMMUNITY, AND SOCIAL SERVICE DELIVERY IN KOSOVO

Author:: Ferdi Kamberi and Zeqir Hashani
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: Community development is vital in networking and creating social capital. Local governments in Kosovo cooperate closely with their communities by offering public and social services, inclusivity, and social integration. This cooperation increases active citizenship, community development, social welfare, and local democracy. This paper aims to research and analyze the relationship between local governments and their communities, focusing on providing social services. The applied methodology included a quantitative survey of 300 respondents from three municipalities: Pristina, Fushe Kosove, and Obilic, targeting citizens aged 18 and above of both genders. The results show that local authorities in these municipalities offer community services and include their communities in policy-making and decision-making. While they also offer social services, community-based services should be restructured, and local authorities should pay more attention to empowering the community more comprehensively.
Topic:: Social Services, Community, Service Delivery, and Local Government
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Kosovo

86. Pursuing justice for international crimes in Ukraine: A patchwork of multi-level and long-running efforts

Author:: Katja Creutz
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: The Russian aggression against Ukraine has triggered debates and initiatives on how to address crimes under international law committed in and against Ukraine, including war crimes and the crime of aggression. A single institution capable of dealing with all international crimes is nonetheless lacking. Tens of thousands of alleged war crimes have been reported and documented, part of which the Ukrainian courts themselves are handling. The massive caseload requires international assistance, in addition to which the ICC is also investigating alleged war crimes. The international community is divided in regard to the investigation and prosecution of the crime of aggression. As the ICC lacks jurisdiction with respect to this crime in this particular situation, European states are advancing a special ad hoc tribunal. Nonetheless, the majority of countries globally, particularly in the Global South, find it hard to support the initiative. The discussion on the best way to proceed with regard to addressing the crime of aggression committed by Russia is ongoing. Many problematic issues are being debated, ranging from political desirability to the issue of head of state immunities.
Topic:: Human Rights, International Law, United Nations, War Crimes, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

87. Russian blackmail and the Black Sea Grain Initiative: The (limited) impact of the war in Ukraine on global food security

Author:: Timo R. Stewart
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: Ukraine and Russia are both major exporters of foodstuffs and fertilisers. Consequently, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 led to fears of an impending food crisis, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa. Prices did indeed rise steeply in March 2022 as Russia blockaded Ukrainian ports. Although global food prices remain elevated, they have fallen over the past year. This is partly due to mitigating measures, particularly the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI). However, prices were already high before the war due to the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. The BSGI was further extended in March until May 2023 at least. Each deadline gives Russia a new opportunity to press for concessions on sanctions, as Ukraine sorely needs the export revenues, and there is ongoing concern regarding world food prices. While a continuation of the BSGI is highly preferable, it is also important to note that the initial food crisis fears were somewhat overblown. Russia’s leverage is limited. Higher food prices do take a toll on the poorest, but world food markets also have a high degree of flexibility and thereby resilience. Scuttling the deal would also incur costs for Russia and is therefore unlikely to happen.
Topic:: Governance, Multilateralism, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

88. The war-induced exodus from Russia: A security problem or a convenient political bogey?

Author:: Margarita Zavadskaya
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: Since 24 February 2022, around 800,000 Russians have left Russia in reaction to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The largest proportion of new migrants was accepted by Kazakhstan, Georgia, Turkey, and Armenia. War-induced migration should be handled like any other migration, whether it involves asylum-seekers, economic migrants, or repatriates. Excessive politicization and fearmongering around migration, including political refugees and political oppositionists, is counterproductive, as it feeds into Kremlin propaganda and belligerent narratives. While there may be concerns about espionage or saboteurs, the primary focus should be on the socio-economic impact of Russian immigration. For the receiving states, especially in the post-Soviet space, the Russian migrants pose a socio-economic challenge rather than a political one. With an increasing probability of cross-border repression – persecution or intimidation of political migrants abroad – it is essential that the EU adopts a consistent response towards political migrants, including those from Russia.
Topic:: Security, Refugees, Borders, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

89. Nuclear deterrence in the Ukraine war: Diplomacy of violence

Author:: Jyri Lavikainen
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: Russia’s nuclear blackmailing has been the primary reason why NATO has not intervened in the Ukraine war. However, the US nuclear deterrence has allowed the West to resist Russia’s nuclear coercion, which has resulted in an unprecedented delivery of military aid to Ukraine. The US has reacted to Russia’s nuclear coercion by emphasizing its readiness to retaliate if Russia uses nuclear weapons. The war progresses in line with the historical tradition of limited wars where the opposing sides regulate the conflict by issuing threats in a game of nerves. Russia’s nuclear deterrence strategy is failing because it uses nuclear deterrence for something it is not suited for: as a coercive tool in a protracted war of conquest. As long as such threats can be countered with a threat to retaliate, their credibility is low because the benefits cannot outweigh the costs in the vast majority of circumstances. The deterrence dynamic still allows more room for manoeuvre for the supporters of Ukraine. The West should increase the military aid delivered to Ukraine with the goal of defeating Russia.
Topic:: NATO, Nuclear Weapons, Deterrence, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and United States of America

90. La invasión rusa de Ucrania bajo el prisma de las teorías de control reflexivo

Author:: Arturo Esteban Ceballos
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: El presente artículo analiza las causas del fracaso de la fase inicial de la invasión rusa de Ucrania de febrero de 2022 desde el prisma de la teoría del control reflexivo. Esta teoría fue formulada en los años sesenta por el matemático y psicólogo Vladimir Lefebvre, y constituye hoy día una de las fuentes de inspiración de la moderna doctrina político militar de Rusia. Para ello, se ha utilizado un método hipotético deductivo sobre la base de una hipótesis que relaciona este fracaso con el manejo inadecuado de los marcos de información por parte de Rusia. Dado que la moderna doctrina militar de Rusia descansa en gran parte en las teorías del control reflexivo, el fracaso de este último provocó que no se alcanzasen las condiciones decisivas del enfrentamiento en las fases iniciales del conflicto. Ucrania había resistido las medidas activas rusas, lo que ocasionó un error de cálculo en el diseño estratégico inicial del Kremlin.
Topic:: Intelligence, Military Strategy, Russia-Ukraine War, and Reflexive Control
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

91. Dimensión digital de la guerra de Rusia contra Ucrania: perspectivas endógenas en situaciones de emergencia

Author:: Jacinto Gómez-López, Jesús Miguel Flores-Vivar, and Ángel Gómez de Agreda
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: Los conflictos armados provocan disrupciones en las redes de comunicaciones y su empleo malicioso por parte del enemigo. Si bien las causas que lo originan son distintas, las consecuencias son, a menudo, similares a las que se producen en emergencias de la sociedad civil. El establecimiento de protocolos y mecanismos que fomenten la resiliencia de las redes y aplicaciones tecnológicas existentes y que prevean el uso de otras alternativas es una parte fundamental en el correcto funcionamiento de los servicios de emergencia. El artículo presenta algunas reflexiones y resultados preliminares para la mejora de estos servicios, basadas en las enseñanzas extraídas del conflicto en Ucrania-Rusia. Se recogen acciones para la mejora de las actuaciones en las redes sociales y en aquellos servicios que estas habilitan.
Topic:: Communications, Propaganda, Disinformation, Armed Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, and Emergency Services
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

92. International terrorism, a threat present in Kosovo

Author:: Fidan Haliti
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: This article deals with the threats posed by international terrorism to the security environment in Kosovo, with a particular focus on the period of the emergence of ISIS, when a large number of fighters from Kosovo joined terrorist organisations in the conflict zone of Syria and Iraq. This article attempts to explain the general factors leading to the rise of violent extremism and religious radicalism in Kosovo, as well as why Kosovar fighters joined ISIS. In particular, it examines the institutional responses to counter-terrorism in Kosovo, the elimination of conditions and factors conducive to extremism and radicalism, and the weaknesses of Kosovo institutions in countering terrorism.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, and Islamic State
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Kosovo

93. The social identity of the Ukrainian soldier in the conditions of the legal regime of martial law

Author:: Serhii A. Mul and Kostiantyn V. Hromovenko
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: The purpose of the article is to study the social identity of the Ukrainian soldier under the legal regime of martial law. The social identity of a Ukrainian soldier under martial law determines his characteristics, perception of his role in society, sense of responsibility to it, and willingness to perform courageous actions in the interests of the country. This essential factor helps to raise the morale and motivation of a soldier in a military conflict. The concept of a soldier's social identity is used on the basis of the analysed literature and the survey conducted among military personnel. The authors propose and substantiate the thesis that the social identity of a Ukrainian soldier under martial law can be characterised by a sense of commitment to his nation and his essential role in the defence of the country.
Topic:: Military Affairs, Identity, Readiness, Russia-Ukraine War, and Martial Law
Political Geography:: Ukraine and Eastern Europe

94. Leaving Dayton for Brussels: Reviving Bosnia’s constitutional reform

Author:: Berta López Domènech
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: In December 2022, the European Council granted Bosnia and Herzegovina candidate status. However, to make EU membership a reality, Bosnia needs to address several conditions and implement major reforms. Almost three decades since the end of the Bosnian war, the country continues to be governed along sectarian lines and is overseen by an internationally appointed authority, the High Representative. Moreover, the ethnic provisions of the Dayton constitution discriminate against parts of its citizenry. This Discussion Paper stresses the need to reopen the debate on Bosnia’s constitutional reform, arguing that the EU should accompany the country’s efforts to become a fully functional and democratic state. A new constitution is vital to improving institutional functionality, streamlining decision-making, and guaranteeing equality for all citizens – all of which would ultimately allow for the closure of the Office of the High Representative. The EU should use the granting of candidate status to Bosnia as an opportunity to advance the conversation on reforming Bosnia's constitution per European democratic norms.
Topic:: Democratization, Reform, Constitution, and European Council
Political Geography:: Bosnia and Eastern Europe

95. China-US Competition in the Balkans Impact, regional responses, and larger implications

Author:: Ivan Lidarev
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: This strategic update from Sotirov Visiting Fellow Dr Ivan Lidarev analyses the competition between China and the US in the Balkans, striving to answer three broad research questions about its impact on the region. The paper analyses how the China-US competition has shaped the strategic framework in which Balkan states operate; how Balkan nations have responded strategically to this competition; and what the long-term implications of the regional US-China competition are.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Strategic Competition, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: China, Eastern Europe, Balkans, and United States of America

96. Facilitating learning and discovery oriented industrial policy in Albania

Author:: Matt Andrews and Peter Harrington
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: Industrial policy initiatives demand a lot of knowledge from policymakers. Knowledge is often limited, however, especially when policies emerge from top-down technical experts or outsiders with limited contextual experience. Such policies are prone to mistakes. These can, however, be avoided by developing policies through collaborative ‘discovery processes’. Establishing organizations to do ‘discovery’ work is challenging, however, especially when challenges are urgent, resources lacking, and corruption concerns rife. In such settings, it may be more practical and effective to build listening and response capabilities into incumbent policy systems through rapid, temporary discovery processes. This paper provides a case narrative of an experiment with this idea, recounting the story of a problem-driven learning and discovery-oriented approach undertaken to reinvigorate a struggling sector in Albania in 2014.
Topic:: Development, Industrial Policy, Economy, and Business
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Albania

97. Can Back Channels Prevent Direct Military Conflict Between Russia and NATO?

Author:: Yury Nadtochey
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Against the background of ongoing war in Ukraine few options remain to escape the worst scenario of tensions between Russia and the West in Eastern Europe and beyond. We might point out three possible ways on how this disastrous future can be avoided: 1) unilateral steps taken by the conflicting parties in order to de-escalate; 2) enhancing existing communication lines; 3) back channel diplomacy
Topic:: NATO, Diplomacy, Communications, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

98. What Does the Russian Army Think About its War in Ukraine? Criticisms, Recommendations, Adaptations

Author:: Dimitri Minic
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: The Russian army is very critical of its war in Ukraine. Not just of the first phase of the failed special military operation (SVO), which was inspired by the theorization of bypassing, but also of the strategic deterrence phase that preceded it. What Does the Russian Army Think About its War in Ukraine? Criticisms, Recommendations, Adaptations Download 0.98 Mo Russian military theorists have commented on the profound lack of preparation not just for the SVO, but also—in many areas—for the heterotelic war the SVO has become. The Russian army’s weaknesses vis-à-vis the Ukrainian army are generally, and sometimes quite directly, recognized. The Russian military elites have made numerous recommendations for improving Russia’s military performance, primarily focusing on the ground and aerospace forces. Meanwhile, the Russian army has mostly adapted (more or less successfully) to the difficulties it has encountered in the last year and a half in Ukraine. Although the Putin regime is authoritarian and intent on reducing freedom of expression in Russian society, the existence and tolerance of a certain amount of truth-telling at this level of the military apparatus indicate that the Russian army’s and state’s ability to adapt should not be underestimated.
Topic:: Armed Forces, Deterrence, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

99. Envisioning a Long-Term Security Arrangement for Ukraine

Author:: Eric Ciaramella
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The moment has arrived for Western leaders to offer a practical vision for Ukraine’s long-term security. This paper lays out a detailed proposal for a sustainable multilateral security arrangement in which Ukraine has a strong military that is backed by legally codified pledges of support—training, equipping, and defense industrial cooperation—from the United States and Europe. The model outlined in this paper draws on official Ukrainian government proposals and lessons from the United States’ security relationships with close partners that are not treaty allies, notably Israel. It prioritizes a strategy of deterrence by denial: by fielding a robust, modernized, and well-trained military, Ukraine can raise the cost of future aggression to such a point that Russia would lose confidence in its ability to achieve its objectives there through force.1 Independent of battlefield developments, Ukraine and its partners must negotiate a long-term security arrangement now. Reaching a consensus sooner rather than later on a framework makes more sense than putting off controversial decisions until large-scale hostilities end. A security arrangement has the potential to undermine President Vladimir Putin’s conviction that Russia can outlast Ukraine and the West. It can also assure Ukraine that it will be able to defend its sovereignty even if it does not liberate its entire territory this year. Many of the elements contained in this proposal can be implemented during wartime—indeed, some of them are already in place—and strengthened after the war. The proposed security model is not necessarily an alternative to NATO membership, which enjoys strong support from Ukraine’s leaders and public. The allies have promised the country an eventual place in NATO, but they have made clear that this will not be on the agenda while the war is ongoing. Even once the war ends, they are unlikely to move swiftly to admit Ukraine. Therefore, the proposal here seeks to enhance the country’s ability to defend itself as it remains outside of NATO for the foreseeable future. At the same time, it emphasizes the critical role Ukraine’s EU accession will play in its long-term security. The United States must lead the conversation on a future security arrangement. Not only does its unparalleled capacity for security assistance and multinational coordination make it vital to the success of the arrangement, but a clear long-term U.S. pledge to Ukraine would also prompt Europe to increase its commitments, thereby ensuring proper burden-sharing. The proposed arrangement would be flexible enough to encompass commitments from the EU as a collective, from individual member states, and from other countries. To make the U.S. commitment to Ukraine credible and durable, the Biden administration must work with Congress to secure broad bipartisan support. This study identifies five elements that are critical to a future security arrangement: Strong political and legal codification that ensures the arrangement will endure regardless of electoral cycles and leadership changes in the United States and Europe A predictable, multiyear pipeline for military supplies that enables Ukraine to plan and sustain a future force structure capable of deterring Russian aggression Support for Ukraine’s defense industry, as well as targeted defense industrial investments in the United States and Europe to prepare for a long war and an extended period of Ukrainian military reconstitution Mechanisms for political consultations, information sharing, and coordination to ensure that Ukraine’s military needs are met in a timely fashion Clear linkage to Ukraine’s EU accession process and postwar reconstruction Much of the public debate to date has focused on Ukraine’s request for security “guarantees” in response to the failure of the previous “assurances” encapsulated in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum. To avoid confusion, and in light of the historical baggage these terms carry, this paper uses “arrangement” or “commitment” to refer to the future legal and political framework in question.2
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, European Union, Defense Industry, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

100. Separatisms and Social Integration Processes on the Example of Estonia

Author:: Agata Włodarska-Frykowska
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: The article seeks to analyze political and social separatisms in contemporary Estonia and to outline integration processes in the country. The Russian national minority has been a factor that has significantly influenced the existing divisions in the interior of the country since the creation of the independent and sovereign Estonian state. Despite the passage of more than 30 years after regaining its independence, Estonia is still struggling with internal separatist mechanisms, whilst strongly developed and strengthened integration processes have significantly influenced its social consolidation. Changes in Estonian society are apparent, the sense of Estonian identity keeps strengthening and representatives of national minorities, primarily the Russian one, have increasingly improved their linguistic competence in Estonian. On the other hand, it is extremely difficult to build Estonian statehood, subjectivity and identity in the shadow of the difficult relations with the Russian Federation.
Topic:: Minorities, Separatism, and Social Integration
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Estonia

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS